13 Risers & Fallers: Justin Fields, Rico Dowdle, Jalen McMillan, Najee Harris, & More! (03/14 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today – Episode 13: Risers & Fallers

Episode Information:

• Title: Fantasy Football Today – Episode 13: Risers & Fallers: Justin Fields, Rico Dowdle, Jalen McMillan, Najee Harris, & More!
• Host: Heath Cummings
• Guest: Davis Matic
• Release Date: March 14, 2025

---

1. Introduction and Guest Background

The episode kicks off with Heath Cummings welcoming Davis Matic back to the show. Heath prompts Davis to share where listeners can find his work and his current projects.

Notable Quote:

• [01:18] Heath Cummings: "Just remind everybody where they can find your work and tell them what you've been working on."
• [01:38] Davis Matic: "You can check me out pretty much every single day on YouTube at youtube.com/davismatic and then all of my more analytical stuff like rankings, Dynasty Redraft, Best Ball, and some of the more serious work on Patreon at patreon.com/davismatic."

---

2. Dynasty Rankings Update and Free Agency Impact

Heath delves into the core of the episode by discussing the upcoming March Dynasty rankings update. He highlights the anticipation of new landing spots and introduces the main topics: biggest risers and fallers in dynasty rankings based on recent free agency moves.

Notable Quote:

• [01:38] Heath Cummings: "We’re going to talk about rankings risers and fallers. I have my March Dynasty rankings update coming next week."

---

3. Biggest Dynasty Winners in Free Agency

Heath initiates the discussion by asking Davis about the biggest dynasty winner from free agency moves so far. Davis identifies Brock Bowers as a premium asset whose value has solidified by securing a full season of consistent quarterback production.

Notable Quotes:

• [02:23] Davis Matic: "Brock Bowers is getting like basically locking down 17 games of competent quarterback production."
• [03:10] Heath Cummings: "What would you put an over/under next year on Adams' target set?"
• [03:50] Davis Matic: "163."

Heath agrees with the target projection for Davante Adams, emphasizing his value as a top-tier wide receiver, especially in a competitive environment like the Rams.

---

4. Biggest Dynasty Losers in Free Agency

Transitioning to fallers, Heath asks Davis to highlight the most significant loss in dynasty rankings due to free agency. Davis does not shy away from a controversial pick, naming Terry McLaurin as the biggest dynasty loser.

Notable Quotes:

• [04:13] Davis Matic: "The biggest dynasty loser from free agency so far is Terry McLaurin."
• [05:17] Heath Cummings: "Last year is maybe kind of missed by some people. I've always been a little bit lower than consensus on McLaurin in dynasty anyway."

Davis explains that McLaurin's production is likely to decline with the addition of Deebo Samuel, who will take over many of McLaurin's short and intermediate routes, potentially reducing his target volume by approximately 40%.

---

5. Discussion on Specific Players

Justin Fields and Daniel Jones

Heath and Davis discuss the quarterback landscape, focusing on Justin Fields' rise in rankings and the implications of Anthony Richardson’s potential starting role. They compare Fields' production potential with Daniel Jones' improved situation after signing with the Indianapolis Colts.

Notable Quotes:

• [12:20] Heath Cummings: "Justin Fields goes from QB25 to QB16."
• [13:31] Davis Matic: "Justin Fields has run for 1,100 yards and eight touchdowns as a starter before. He had a 30-point game last year."

Davis expresses skepticism about Daniel Jones outperforming Fields, suggesting that while Jones may be a viable QB2, Fields offers higher upside when he is on the field.

Najee Harris and Aaron Jones

The conversation shifts to running backs Najee Harris and Aaron Jones. Heath notes that Harris has moved up in rankings despite appearing older, citing his recent one-year contract. Davis remains cautious, indicating a preference for younger, higher-upside backs.

Notable Quotes:

• [16:38] Heath Cummings: "Najee goes from RB32 to RB26."
• [17:38] Davis Matic: "I have no interest in Aaron Jones or Najee Harris at these prices in Dynasty."

Evan Ingram and Brenton Strange

Heath raises concerns about Evan Ingram’s efficiency and longevity as a tight end, prompting Davis to question his value despite Ingram's target volume.

Notable Quotes:

• [06:02] Davis Matic: "Ingram is not a very good player. His catch rate is below positional average."
• [21:09] Davis Matic: "I would rather have Strange for four more seasons."

---

6. Followers and Lower-Tier Players

Heath touches on players who have declined in rankings but may hold potential, including Malik Willis and others. The discussion emphasizes the volatility and unpredictability of player performance in dynasty formats.

Notable Quotes:

• [22:16] Davis Matic: "I think you gotta get one [Gardner Minshew]. Yeah, a good novelty jersey is fun."

---

7. Unsigned Players and Future Implications

The episode examines quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson, pondering their potential destinations and impacts if they sign with new teams. Davis remains largely pessimistic about favorable outcomes for these veterans, citing their declining performance and fit within team dynamics.

Notable Quotes:

• [29:52] Davis Matic: "Optimism is minimal. Aaron Rodgers signing with the Jets is impossible."
• [31:58] Davis Matic: "Keenan Allen is potentially at the age where he just wants to avoid rigorous training."

Heath speculates on Aaron Rodgers possibly enhancing new teams’ wide receiver performances but acknowledges challenges in maximizing their fantasy potential.

---

8. Late-Round and Low-Name Players

In the latter part of the episode, Heath and Davis discuss players with lower rankings and minimal impact potential. They assess whether adding such players is worthwhile or if roster space should be prioritized elsewhere.

Notable Quotes:

• [44:56] Davis Matic: "James Cook is probably the first ever running back to score 17 touchdowns who played less than half of his team’s snaps."
• [46:38] Davis Matic: "Tank Dell would be a great buy if you're tanking, but his long-term viability is questionable."

---

9. Final Thoughts and Conclusion

Heath and Davis wrap up the discussion by reinforcing their rankings and providing final insights on player selections. Davis promotes his additional resources, including his Patreon for deeper analytical content.

Notable Quotes:

• [45:48] Davis Matic: "James Cook is probably good, but the Bills have not done anything to signal increased usage."
• [47:03] Davis Matic: "All my dynasty stuff is on patreon.com/davismatic and my YouTube channel."

Heath thanks Davis for his contributions and encourages listeners to engage with the show's community for ongoing fantasy football strategies.

---

Key Takeaways:

• Brock Bowers emerges as a standout dynasty asset, securing value through consistent QB production.
• Terry McLaurin is identified as a significant loss in dynasty rankings due to reduced target opportunities.
• Justin Fields gains substantial upside, positioning him as a top quarterback choice in dynasty formats.
• Concerns persist around the efficiency and longevity of veterans like Evan Ingram and Keenan Allen.
• Emerging players such as Jalen McMillan present potential buy-low opportunities within dynasty leagues.
• The impact of free agency continues to reshape dynasty rankings, emphasizing the need for strategic roster adjustments.

---

For more in-depth analysis and up-to-date dynasty rankings, follow Davis Matic on his YouTube channel and support his work on Patreon.

Transcript

[Speaker A]

Where'd you get those shoes?

[Davis Matic]

Easy.

[Speaker A]

They're from dsw. Because DSW has the exact right shoes for whatever you're into right now. You know, like the sneakers that make office hours feel like happy hour, the boots that turn grocery aisles into runways, and all the styles that show off the many sides of you, from daydreamer to multitasker and everything in between. Because you do it all in really great shoes. Find a shoe for every you at your DSW store or dsw.com looking to.

[Nourish Representative]

Improve your diet in the new year? Try seeing a personal dietitian with Nourish. Nourish has hundreds of dietitians who specialize in a variety of health concerns, including weight loss, gut health, and more. Meet with your dietitian online and message them anytime through the Nourish app. Nourish accepts hundreds of insurance plans. 94% of patients pay $0 out of pocket. Find your personal [e-mail] that's usenourish.com.

[Heath Cummings]

Welcome to Fantasy Football today, Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings, joined today by my good friend Davis Matic. It's been a while since Davis has been on the program, but he has been many times in the past. Just remind everybody where they can find your work and tell them what you've been working on.

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, they can check me out pretty much every single day on YouTube. YouTube.com davismatic and then all of my more analytical the rankings, Dynasty Redraft, Best Ball, all that stuff and some of the more serious work. Patreon.com Davismatic on today's show we are.

[Heath Cummings]

Going to talk about rankings risers and fallers. I have my March Dynasty rankings update coming next week. I've pretty much done the update, although I'm hoping we get a few more landing spots before I have to release those on Monday. Talk about some of my biggest risers and followers. We'll talk to Davis about his biggest winners and losers so far in free agency. We'll talk about some of the lower end guys and whether or not we think they matter either in the NFL or in our game. Dynasty and then who we're still waiting on. Do any of those older guys matter? We were just talking about that before the show, but we always start with three questions for our guest and Davis. I'll just hit you with the big one first. Who is the biggest Dynasty winner of free agency so far?

[Davis Matic]

You know, winner is, it's, it's a little complicated because I don't think any like premium tier assets really Got influenced by this free agency move. I. I would actually say in terms of a premium tier asset, someone who you'd get multiple first for. It's Brock Bowers getting like basically locking down 17 games of competent quarterback production. If I wanted to say a guy who is like maybe irrelevant, maybe you'd trade a third to this guy. Could be on you. You. You would maybe actively be trying to trade for this guy. It's Devonte Adams. Where Adams went from a. You have him on a team that finished fourth in your league last year and you'd just be happy to get him off your roster to. You might send out the 202 if you're kind of on the edge to try and win this year for him.

[Heath Cummings]

Now, I think, yeah, we talked about that on Tuesday. How while he is going to a place where he doesn't have Aaron Rodgers and they do have a number one wide receiver, that doesn't really matter with the Rams because everything is so concentrated that it's absolutely possible that both those guys could just see 10 targets per game. I think the thing that I love the most is Cooper cup was part of the club. Like good friends with Matthew Stafford, good friends with Sean McVeigh. They saw him play last year and they said, you know what? We think it's worth spending a whole lot of money to upgrade from him to Devonte Adams. Well, it's not like his targets just fell off last year. So I feel pretty good. Like, what would you put an over under next year on Adam's target set?

[Davis Matic]

163.

[Heath Cummings]

I like that number at all. A great guy for contenders to go try to trade for and just, you know, he may be your wide receiver one this year. Definitely a wide receiver too. Let's look at the flip side of this. Where there are winners, there are losers. Who was the biggest dynasty loser from free agency so far?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, this isn't going to be an unpopular one, but it's Terry McLaurin. So Terry McLaurin again went from a. He's 30 years old, but he's. He's been a good athlete. He's a little bit of a late bloomer. Maybe he's got a little bit more tread on the tires with the addition of debo Samuel Because McLaurin has always been a pretty good deep threat. But his good fantasy seasons have come playing with Jabronis. Right. I mean, frankly, like his. His best fantasy seasons have come without any other serious target earner on the team. Even if Debo is, you know, let's call it, he's, he's overcooked. Chicken is getting a little bit rubbery, but you could still eat it in terms of, of being cooked. He is going to replace that short and intermediate stuff in the Cliff offense. I, I, I guarantee that those, you know, wide receiver screens, the slants like that is going to be Debo's territory now. And I mean, that might trim 40 targets off of the easy stuff. You know, McLaurin could run hot on touchdowns, but the easy stuff, the layups are gone for him now. I think.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, I think that last year is maybe kind of missed by some people. And I've always been a little bit lower than consensus on McLaren and dynasty anyway, because if it feels like he's always been older than everybody thought he was or acted like he was, he's 30. Last year was very, very similar to prior years of Terry McLaren's career. He just ran hot on touchdowns. He scored a lot more touchdowns. And that's a product of finally playing with a good quarterback. Sure. I'll tell you, there's a couple of guys who I had as followers that we're not going to mention them later because we talked about them more on Tuesday. But DK Metcalf and George Pickens both went backwards in my Dynasty rankings. And I have those three back to, back to back where how would you rank Pickens, McLaren and Metcalf and Dynasty?

[Davis Matic]

Pickens first, Metcalf second, McLaurin third. But part of that is I think George Pickens is going to be traded. I, my, my read of the situation is that the Steelers kick. They, they store. They stared into their crisp ball and they realized, like Pickens is going to be agitating. We actually don't think he's worth the money. We're going to let him be someone else's problem and we're going to bring in Metcalf. That, that, and maybe it won't be true, but I think the ranking still holds even if they are teammates. But that was my read of the situation.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I'm very hopeful that George Pickens is going somewhere else rel. Before, before they play real football games. I don't, I, I just don't understand what the Steelers plan would be. If not, you have an offensive coordinator that's shown consistently he's gonna draw up 500 pass plays per season. You don't have a quarterback and yet you think you can. You, you need to have these two wide receivers. It doesn't, doesn't make a lot of sense yet, but it's still early in the off season. I don't know if this third question is, is more difficult for you than the first two, but it would be for me. I found myself really, really unmoved by this two year contract for Evan Ingram in Denver. So I want you to give me the optimistic case for Evan Ingram as a Denver Bronco.

[Davis Matic]

So last year Bonix had 549 aimed throws. 135 of those went to Cortland Sutton. Just listener in your head, ask yourself who you think is number two. I promise you it's not the, it's not the player you think it is. Javante was second, but with 70 then there were 10 players on the OR nine players on the roster with between 20 and 55. So pretty simple. All you have to do is consolidate just a little bit. 75% of the routes. That's really, that's it. If you just, if you're, if your base projection is Emmert Ingram, 75% of the routes. There's not a path that the Broncos could take from heat to week one that would convince me he's not getting 100 targets. I mean, I guess maybe if they do, if they trade for Brandon Iuk or, or something I'm totally not seeing, then sure. But if their wide receiver room is a rookie. Cortland Sutton, Troy Franklin, Lil Jordan, who by the way was reportedly this summer bulking up to try and trade like play actual inline tight end and Marvin Mims. Ingram's gonna finish second on that team in targets. And I'm a big Marvin Mims guy, but Ingram will just get. Mims will probably score more fantasy points, but Ingram will get more targets.

[Heath Cummings]

And really, you sound like me talking about almost anyone else. Like I am generally the guy. It's volume over everything. There's, there's opportunity for him there. He's shown the ability to earn targets. Here's, here's my problem. Evan Ingram saw 115 targets in 2017 and turned it into 722 yards. He saw 109 targets in 2020 and turn it into 654 yards in one touchdown. He saw 98 targets back in 2022, 766 yards and four touchdowns. Like, I just don't know. He's been so incredibly inefficient through his whole career at turning targets into fantasy points. And then last year was the worst 5.7 yards per target on the season. And yeah, he had 64 targets in nine games. But I just, I hate betting on him having some sort of efficiency spike as a 31 year old tight end in an offense that like Sean Payton's offenses have a. If you look back a long time ago, there is a history of good production for tight ends. If you look at the last four or five years, it's like 60 targets per season go to that position. Now certainly you would think that targeting Evan Ingram and free agency is going to change that. I'm just not sure if he's any good anymore and or even as good as he used to be. But I think more people are going to look at it like you do than I like I do. And that's why I wanted to have you kind of give that case because I'm probably.

[Davis Matic]

I mean, he's not very good. I will say this every. Like some guys in fantasy are receptions merchants or touchdown merchants. Ingram is not even a receptions merchant. He's just a target merchant. Just these, these gross empty. Like he doesn't even. His catch rate is, is below positional average despite having a low A dot. I mean he's just not a very good player. But basically every year he's ever been on a football field, his coaches have been convinced to give him the ball more than you would anticipate.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, no, you're, you're. That's exactly right. I will. I would just finish off by saying the last two seasons in Jacksonv two years ago he had an eight out of five and averaged four and a half yards of Yak per reception.

[Davis Matic]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Last year 5.4 and the Yak fell to 3.2 yards per reception. I think he's Zach Ertz, only not quite as good.

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, Yeah. I think I, I think that's a very good, a very good comp. But Earth's a better catch rate.

[Heath Cummings]

Yes. Earth Sketch is better at catching the football. They both pretty much catch it and fall down. That's. Let's take our first break and then we'll get to some diner. St. Dynasty Rankings Risers and Fallers if.

[Instacart Representative]

You don't know about flyer deals on Instacart, this message is for you. Flyer deals are like strolling through your favorite store looking for deals, but you're scrolling your phone and maybe you're in bed because getting delivery doesn't mean you have to miss deals like you get at the store. Like the one creamer that doesn't make your stomach hurt. Or the pasta sauce you can't not buy when it's on sale. So download the Instacart app, shop flyers and never miss a deal on one of your favorites. Plus get delivery in as fast as 30 minutes.

[Jumbo Casino Representative]

Ready to level up. Jumbo Casino is your playbook to fun. It's free to play with no purchase necessary. Enjoy hundreds of casino style games like bingo, slots and Solitaire anytime anywhere with fresh releases every week whether you're at home or on the go. Let Shumba Casino bring the excitement to you. Plus get free daily login bonuses and a free welcome bonus. Join now for your chance to redeem some serious prizes. Play Chumba Casino today. No purchase necessary. VGW group void were prohibited by law 18 +TNC supply so I'll kind of.

[Heath Cummings]

Go through where these guys moved in my rankings. We'll gloss over a few of the guys that we talked about on Tuesday. Unless you really have something you want to say about them. Davis the quarterbacks who went up the most in the last month for me, Justin fields goes from QB25 to QB16. We talked about that a lot on Tuesday. He is basically Anthony Richardson. He's going to get a chance to start this year. We think if he keeps the job he'll probably finish at the top 12 quarterback, but he may start four games and never start again in the NFL. But Justin Fields went up because we weren't sure he'd get this opportunity again. Daniel Jones the reason we say we think Richardson's going to get the chance to start Jones signs with the Indianapolis Colts and moves up for me again. I I think a pretty good landing spot. We haven't really talked about this much at all, but as much as I've kind of mocked Daniel Jones on our main show because Adam Azer is a Giants fan over the last half of a decade, he's still a guy who to a lesser extent is better in fantasy than he is in real life. Do you think there's any chance that he beats out Richardson and if he does, do you think He's a solid QB2 this year?

[Davis Matic]

He definitely is not going to beat him out for week one. No, no chance. Now Richardson could play poorly enough. I I think of these two guys, Fields and Jones, I'd be more likely to buy on Fields because the field's production will be actually really high end right when he's on the field. Jones could like totally backdoor a quarterback 11 per game season or whatever. But there, I mean Justin Fields has ran for 1100 yards and eight touchdowns as a starter before. You know, like the high end is much better. I mean he had a 30 point game last year, right? For a coach who actively did not want him to do anything who literally just wanted him to hand the ball off. So now again the trouble would be, you know, the guy who has Fields in your league probably believes more than the market. So he's gonna do like he's, he's gonna. Yeah. So he's just gonna be like well what. What is. Would I rather have Jackson Dart or Justin Fields? Well, a guy in your league's gonna be like, well I would just rather have Justin Fields. You know, I just truly I. I really, I really would. Jones, I actually think you could, you could pry away like I'll give you, I'll give you two thirds and some flotsam. You know what. Whatever. Some, some wide receivers never gonna pan out. Troy Franklin. Troy Franklin. A 2/3 probably gets you Daniel Jones in, in some leagues and super flex formats. I bet.

[Heath Cummings]

I and I think like Jones is, there's several guys that we're kind of going to talk about this line with today, especially when we get to the do they matter range. But Jones was in that territory even in a super flex league where he may have been getting cut before rookie dress to make room for that third round pick or that fourth round pick. And, and now he's in a situation I think where you definitely probably Cole Jones until we see Anthony Richardson play a good month of football like he's someone that is a. Is a must roster and wasn't necessarily tracking towards that at running back position. I had three risers I wanted to highlight Aaron Jones from RB 30 with the uncertainty of free agency to RB 24 staying in in Minnesota. Naji goes from RB 32 to RB 26. I would say that it probably seems strange to see a guy older than Naji ahead of him. But this running back position is such a win now position and Naji just got a one year contract anyway. Like he would move ahead of Jones for me if the Chargers don't spend significant draft capital on a running back. But I'm still pretty open to the idea that Naji Harris might have one year left as like a worthwhile starter in fantasy football. And then Elijah Mitchell who I'd pretty much just forgotten about and I think is on the waiver wire and a lot of dynasty leagues right now signs with the Chiefs to maybe compete with Isaiah Pacheco who we think an off season will be enough for him to regain the burst that he lost with the broken leg, but it's not guaranteed yet. Is Mitchell in that range where you like you. You definitely want want to hold on to him versus a third round rookie.

[Davis Matic]

Pick, third round rookie pick. I don't know, man. In general. Yes. But like, I don't know. Damian Martinez might just be like the running back 24 this year or whatever. I would say, I would say, you know, I guess, I guess it kind of depends if I could, if I could claim Elijah Mitchell or add him with a third round rookie pick in a lot of these leagues, I, I probably would do it. I mean, Kansas City is going to draft a running back, but I mean running back three on the Kansas City Chiefs is not worth nothing as we've seen in years past. And it will remain a fluid situation. Frankly, I have like no interest in Aaron Jones or Najee Harris at these prices in Dynasty. Like if I'm in a cobble together something to add from. You know what I'd rather do? I would rather just pay whatever the Alvin Camara owner wants. Like if I'm gonna start partying with picks, I'd at least like to have a chance to get, you know, 17 points per game or whatever. Aaron Jones and Naji are not doing that.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I think you're. I mean, obviously the reason for me that Jones is higher is because I think it's more likely that he gets closer to that than Naji. Naji might have two or three years left as a plot or Jones was still at times last year pretty awesome, just didn't SC the touchdowns. But again, I expect Minnesota is probably going to add a A1B that could become a 1A in the middle of the season as well. So a lot of these, as I would say, even with Adams and definitely with Aaron Jones, if I'm buying him right now on a contender, I'm buying for what I think is dirt cheap, way too cheap. These are the types of players that I, I would rather add in season when we get to that point. And that's why some of the changes you'll see in the rankings, I, as I go through, I emphasize 20, 25 a little bit more until we get closer to the start of the season and then I'll emphasize it a lot more because right now you don't want to weigh too much this year's production. Christian Kirk was my wide receiver 62. He is wide receiver 44. He is C.J. stroud's number two wide receiver. He had some like really good number two wide receiver seasons. Do you think it's possible he gets back to that again or do you think that he's just, you know, probably around wide receiver 30?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, I mean his certainly his most common Outcome is, you know, he catches like 62 passes and 814 yards. He misses two games with a knee malady or an ankle or a Pammy or something and he has like one. He'll have like one game, you know, eight catches, 122 yards, two touchdowns and then like a lot of like four for 40s because he's not going to be the most dominant guy. The Texans are perfectly positioned to add a wide receiver. I believe they pick at 24. So Igbuko will probably be there. Golden will probably be there. Probably every wide receiver actually other than Tet will be there when they are picking. So if, if the mark, like if the market agrees with your ranking at wide receiver 44, I would be. I would be. And again, the way I build dynasty teams is like, man, if I'm starting Christian Kirk, something went really wrong. Like, because I did. I did something really stupid. If I'm, if I'm starting Christian Kirk.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, let's, let's see about his former teammate Brenton Strange, who I, I feel really conflicted about pretty much all of the time. But he was a second round pick. Evan Ingram is gone. Strange did have multiple startable weeks without Ingram last year. I am not sure that he's any good, but he is now currently my what tight end 20, which I don't think tight end 20s, probably very good. How are you feeling about Brenton Strange now with Ingram gone?

[Davis Matic]

Oh, see, it's so funny because like Strange is like, well, sure, I'm just going to buy here way harder spot to put like the barrier for being the tight end. Eight is so low in terms of the actual points you have to get and in terms of where you'd have to be in the offense. And then I'm looking at like, okay, what could the Jaguars do to like eliminate the. Just the role he had last season when he was starting? And I'll be like, well they, they probably have to sign another guy at tight end. And I think they, they signed a blocking tight end. If I remember maybe they Johnny Much.

[Heath Cummings]

Right?

[Davis Matic]

There you go. So, so he's basically insulated. Like basically you're getting the routes and if Strange finishes tight end 15 or tight end 6, it'll just be well, how many touchdowns did he score?

[Heath Cummings]

Right?

[Davis Matic]

And if you buy the, the Trevor Lawrence resurgence, you know, pretty, I mean pretty easy to, to sell yourself on. On Brent. And I don't even think Brent Strange is that good but like he's, he's fine.

[Heath Cummings]

So I, this is, I think this is a good question. Would you rather have on your dynasty roster a 24 year old Strange or a 31 year old Evan Ingram Strange?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, yeah, I would. I think their, their bands of production will be pretty similar. I don't think either one of them will be like a real difference maker. And you could have Strange for four more seasons.

[Heath Cummings]

Let's look at the followers here. Gardner Minshew now definitely a backup ghost. Welcome to the Kansas City Chiefs. Everybody on that listens to this show knows that I've always been a big Gardner Minchu fan. I got to hang out and drink a beer with him at a, at a brewery during super bowl week when they, when he was down here. Fun dude. Glad he's on the Chiefs. Got texts from friends saying, you've got to get a Minshu Chiefs Jersey. And my 15 year old says to me, you can't do that, dad. That's basically just wishing my home's injury into existence. So who's, whose side are you on here, Davis?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, I think you gotta get one.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay.

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, a good, A good, A good novelty jersey is fun. Yeah, I agree.

[Heath Cummings]

I'm 100 though. If I do that and Mahomes suffers an injury next year, my son's going to hate me. So just prepare for that. There's one running back that fell in my rankings that it looks kind of funny. It's like, why did Zach Charbonnet fall down nine spots? Partially because that RB 20 to 30 range is just a complete mess right now. Partially because a couple of guys moved up. Partially because I do emphasize just a little bit more certainty after we get through some of the top free agents in the projections and he doesn't project very well. Partially because the team's once again talking about how much they love Ken Walker. I feel like it was a roller coaster ride last year, Davis, where people were early in the year laughing at people who thought Zach Charbonnet was good because look, he can't do what Ken Walker does. And then at the end of the year it was, oh, wait, no, Zach Charbonnet is actually better than Ken Walker. I still think this is a pretty clear 1, 2 situation where Walker's got a chance to be a top 10 running back. And if he gets hurt like he has, then Zach Charbonnet's got a chance to be a top 10 running back. He's still young, but he's probably not helping you next year unless there's an injury, right?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah. I mean, these are like the worst types of guys to buy in Dynasty. Tony Pollard, Ben, Ben Tate. You know, I, I think of them the, the high upside, always really good when they fill in but behind a clear entrenched starter that the team prefers over them. Yeah, I, I agree, I agree with this ranking.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay, so the other running back, I think maybe you were a RICO dowdle guy for a little bit, right? At least you've got some, some Dallas Cowboy affections. He goes to Carolina. He is now the backup to Chuba Hubbard. I had him ranked as if it was a possibility that Dallas was going to bring him back and be a starter. I didn't really buy into Rico as much and now I mostly just think he's. His dynasty value is almost dead.

[Davis Matic]

I mean he's just a handcuff. Maybe, maybe he'll get some third downs or something. Although, you know, these things change rapidly. You know, Chuba Hubbard was completely left for dead multiple times actually left for dead after his final season at Oklahoma State compared to where he was valued before. Left for dead after his rookie year. Left for dead after they draft Jonathan Brooks. And you know, somehow life finds a way. So if you are a RICO guy, you know, I would not say never say never.

[Heath Cummings]

That's well put and like worth the price as a low end backup. But he will turn 27 before they play football and it's not a great sign as a 27 year old to sign a contract to be a backup. Especially when they've got a guy in Jonathan Brooks that they're hoping two years from now is going to be the starter. Jalen McMillan. I think everybody has to was hopeful if Chris Godwin was gone that what we saw in the second half from Jalen McMillan could turn into more production next year. Are you still patiently holding or, and, or buying McMillan with the idea that maybe he's now an extra year away, but he's still going to be really good in the NFL if, if the.

[Davis Matic]

Market agrees with your assessment. I think it's a huge buy because I think he got on the field and produced as a rookie and Kate Otten is on the field, but not a meaningful target earner. It's a super concentrated offense they, they don't even play a wide receiver for. They do target their running backs more than average. Although maybe that'll change with Liam Cohen out of the building. Maybe that's a more Liam Cohen specific thing. He did it in Kentucky and then did it with Kyron in Los Angeles, but not, not with. Who would have been the running back before. I guess the Acres Henderson combination. It didn't it didn't happen then. So this is, this is, I think, a. A great spot to buy on Jalen McMillan.

[Heath Cummings]

I think, you know, you've been, you've said that several times. And I didn't even think about the fact that I've got the most recent ADP from Dynasty League Football, which I really like to use to kind of check my rankings. And I'm okay if I'm out of line with it, as long as, yeah, I want to be high on that guy. I don't want to be 10 spots higher than consensus if I didn't think I even liked him. Jalen McMillan is currently in most recent ADP. It looks like wide receiver 45. I'm going to give you some names of some guys in that range and you tell me which one you prefer. So McMillan versus Khalil Shakir.

[Davis Matic]

Oh, McMillan for sure.

[Heath Cummings]

McMillan versus Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall McMillan versus Keon Coleman.

[Davis Matic]

McMillan.

[Heath Cummings]

Teammate Juwan Jennings. Not teammate Pierce. Off teammate Jennings and Debo Samuel. Somebody already talked about.

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, McMillan.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay. So, yeah, that's right around. Wide receiver 40 to 45 is probably where you're at on him, which again at wide receiver 48 makes him a buy a. Tank Dell falls from wide receiver 50 to 62. And maybe I just like, I was kind of thinking he probably wasn't going to contribute this year, but then the news that he's just now having another surgery and it's just harder and harder with his size coming into the NFL and that being the big concern and now major injuries to end each of his first two years in the NFL. Are. Are you trying to buy him cheap and just stash him on IR all year or are you kind of like, I love Tank Dell, but I'm really concerned that it's just. It's over.

[Davis Matic]

I mean, you know, that is like a depends on the state of your team. Like if you have it, like, it's actually my favorite thing to do. I. Tanking teams are way more fun and way less stressful than trying to win where you're. Anyone who's suspended, anyone who has on IR for the year, I'll take them off your hands, you know, and I play in a lot of these best ball formats where we have these huge rosters, 30 man rosters, and there's no management in season at all. I play in like a lot of like, like industry people because that's a great format. If you are a busy fantasy person and just don't want to have to mess with it in season so Tank would like theoretically be a great buy if you're tanking. But man, what, what is the likelihood he's even a part time player in 2026? I don't know man.

[Heath Cummings]

I hate.

[Davis Matic]

It's very sad.

[Heath Cummings]

I do think he's, he's really, really good but it's not even can he stay healthy. It's what level of athleticism is he going to retain? Because it kind of looked like early last year he'd never recovered from the prior injury. So yeah, I'm, I'm, I'm very concerned for his the only other follower. We don't need to talk about him much. Noah Gray from T.O. tight end 38 there was a little bit of hope I think a month ago that Travis Kelsey wasn't going to come back and Jared Wiley wasn't ready and Noah Gray could be the starting tight end, that he might score eight touchdowns next year just because that's the way the Chiefs like to function, but not somebody you're going to be able to count on. Let's talk about the guys who haven't signed and I want to start with the quarterbacks. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, mostly Flacco and Winston still out there. Also are there, is there any chance like, are there any wide receivers where you're like holding out hope that they get one of these guys so they get the quarterback upgrade? Are you just like waiting for them to sign so you can try to sell them in dynasty? Is there any optimism around any of these quarterbacks?

[Davis Matic]

Optimism, optimism. I mean maybe a smidgen on Rodgers. Maybe you just say, you know what, it was the Achilles, it's the Jets. Everything goes to, everything is terrible with the Jets. Like name name something good that's happened to the jets in the last 50 years, you know, just does, just is, is impossible. And you know, maybe, maybe he signs with the Giants and he's just spamming neighbors and it's just like he loves it. Or he signs with the Steelers and the, the condition of signing with the Steelers is he's like, you got to let me call my audibles. You gotta let me do my thing. The issue is, is Rogers himself is so fantasy unfriendly because of those, I mean the, the double zero stuff just like taking every play down. It's just like really lends itself to the least fun form of football. So that's, that's about the best I can do is you, you could get a quarterback 14 season out of Rogers probably.

[Heath Cummings]

It is possible. I do think it's interesting that, like, over the last two years, Russell Wilson, while everyone's been pretty unified in the fact that he's not playing good football, has scored better in fantasy football than people think he is playing. Like, I, I am probably more optimistic for fantasy purposes for Wilson than I am for Rogers, and that might just be because I like Wilson more than I like Rogers. But I don't really think. I guess the one good thing, if Rogers goes somewhere, if they have a true number one wide receiver, that if he won't be able to bring Devonte Adams with him. And we saw before Adams got there, Garrett Wilson, what He had a 23 target game with Aaron Rodgers. Like, he might just go to a place and throw 180 passes to a wide receiver one, and that might be good enough to elevate that wide receiver. The other. The other thing we're still waiting on are the old wide receivers. Cooper Cup, Keenan Allen, Stefan Diggs, Amari Cooper. Keenan Allen was at least good last year. Like, is he the best of this group?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah. And I think with him, you just really want him to return to the exact same situation he was in. And maybe Keenan, I mean, Keenan is potentially of the age where he's just like, I don't need to do this whole rigmarole and training camp and it's like, you want me on August 4th, you know where to find me. You know, type, type thing. Because I, I agree with you. He can definitely still play of this group. Even like the Hopkins range. He signed for one year, 6 million with the Ravens. Like, I'm mostly pretty out on this group of veteran guys.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, that's what I thought. I saw that, like, we were going to talk about the Chargers and bringing Mike Williams back a little bit in the do they matter? Section. And the answer is probably not. But I don't know why that's the guy that they thought they should bring back instead of bringing back Keenan Allen. Unless they just think he's redundant with lad McConkey.

[Davis Matic]

That's. I think that is what I think they think is they're like, these are, these are duplicative skill sets. I mean, they were playing, you know, Jalen Rager and, and DJ Shark and just like total no ones right. Last year. So at least bring someone in who, like, knows the team and, and you know what he can do if he is. Does happen to be healthy.

[Heath Cummings]

Diggs goes back to Buffalo. Do you get more excited?

[Davis Matic]

No, no, I, I put Diggs in the, the, the toast categories. 31 years old, coming off, I believe, career low. Yards per route run and injured. You know, it's just, it's all. It's like the Texans not just being like, sure, yeah, you were, you were in the building. We'll, we'll bring you back. We need wide receivers like them choosing to do Christian Kirk I think is a pretty big flag.

[Heath Cummings]

Diggs cup and I'll throw Keenan in there too. I know Cooper definitely is the case, but any of those three, they sign with the team tomorrow. Are you actively trying to get a second round pick form?

[Davis Matic]

I mean, I just think everyone would say no. I just think. I just. I don't, I don't think you're doing it also, I think.

[Heath Cummings]

But you got to remember like our inside of our bubble, those rookie picks do get valued. Like there's a lot of leagues where, oh, I can get a player, especially a Keenan Allen Lake player who was that good last year or I can get Cooper Cooper Cup. I can get Cooper cup for a round two pick. My round two picks never any good. I think there's, there's definitely some people who are willing to give up the picks for the names.

[Davis Matic]

It's. It's possible. I mean I would frankly, I would just feel embarrassed to try and get something for Cooper like Cooper. Cooper I think is. Is maybe even just likely to not get signed.

[Heath Cummings]

Yes.

[Davis Matic]

By a team at this point. Now Cup I think is. Is done. Ish. Done. Done adjacent. But just do like kind of like Zach Ertz or Evan Ingram just due to the position he plays and how he plays. If he does sign with the team that has a competent quarterback, I mean he could like actually probably catch 100 passes.

[Heath Cummings]

I, I would love. Like we just talked about Evan Ingram leaving Jacksonville, Christian Kirk leaving Jacksonville. I'd love to see Cooper cup in that offense that he's very familiar with with Brian Thomas drawing double coverage. Like that would be the perfect situation, I think to put Cooper cup in.

[Davis Matic]

I hadn't thought of that one, but I, I like it. I mean it sounds like it's going to be Seattle as of. As of this right broadcast, which does not make any sense with jsn. So I don't really know what the. What I would. I would not love the. That destination.

[Heath Cummings]

I don't really love what seems to be Seattle's plan moving into next year. I just, I think it's probably going to be a bad time and they're probably gonna have a new coaching staff in a year and a half, but hopefully not for everybody involved. Let's take our second break and we'll get to some lower name guys. See if Davis thinks any of these guys matter.

[Robert Half Representative]

Robert Half research indicates nine out of 10 hiring managers are having difficulty hiring. If you have open roles, chances are you're feeling this to. That's why you need Robert Half Our specialized recruiting professionals engage their skills with our award winning AI to connect businesses of all sizes with highly skilled talent in finance and accounting, technology, marketing and creative, legal and administrative and customer support. At Robert Half we know talent. Visit roberthalf.com today.

[Discover Representative]

Order for Jennifer C. Is this my.

[Coffee Shop Employee]

Double shot, double cream, double froth, double pump, double whip, double sleeve?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah. Can you handle that much caffeine?

[Coffee Shop Employee]

Did you know Discover automatically doubles all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year? Oh really?

[Davis Matic]

That's great.

[Coffee Shop Employee]

Seriously. Did you know Discover automatically doubles all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year?

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, you.

[Davis Matic]

You just said that.

[Coffee Shop Employee]

Did you say I just said that?

[Instacart Representative]

Yeah.

[Davis Matic]

I'm cutting you off.

[Coffee Shop Employee]

I can't have any more. Why not?

[Heath Cummings]

You earn.

[Davis Matic]

We match Discover cash back match see.

[Heath Cummings]

[e-mail] credit card so the first name on this list of do they matter? I think probably looked like a joke to Davis because Marquez Valdez Scantling did go to Seattle, right?

[Davis Matic]

Yes.

[Heath Cummings]

Do you know that last year in eight games with the Saints he scored more touchdowns than he did in 36 games with the Chiefs and the Bills?

[Davis Matic]

Yes. Yeah, I did. I did know that. It's very funny. Just not a good. Not a good fit because the. I'd not have met. Well he is returning with the same offensive coordinator. But it's hard for me to imagine Darnold being like, you know what I'm gonna do? I'm just gonna chuck a bunch of. Just not really what he's been. But maybe that'll just be. I mean the, the reality is he probably doesn't matter, but.

[Heath Cummings]

Right.

[Davis Matic]

Maybe.

[Heath Cummings]

I thought one of the most surprising in terms of dollar amount signings was Josh Palmer going to Buffalo and getting the deal. He did and there's been. He's had some. Some believers in the past when he was in Los Angeles and had when both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were hurt. He was pretty good as Josh Palmer matter in Buffalo?

[Davis Matic]

No, no, no. The. The only Buffalo Bills that matter are Alan Cook and like kind of Shakir.

[Heath Cummings]

Alan Cook and kind of Shakir. Javante Williams and Miles Sanders sign with the Dallas Cowboys. Do either one of them matter?

[Davis Matic]

I think. I think Javante matters. Yeah. I think Javante will either be like a really solid handcuff to Ashton Genti, Amarian Hampton, Caleb Johnson, one of these guys. Or maybe they'll totally just do what they did last year. Everyone's like, oh, you know, they don't do anything in Rachel. Their Cowboys are definitely taking Jonathan Brooks. And then they just didn't. They just didn't take a running back at all.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I. It's the, it's the match made in heaven, right? Because we've been talking for a couple of years about how Dallas is this dream spot for a running back to go Landon and we've been talking for years about it. Javante Williams is actually good guys. No, really, he's really, he's good. It's just, it's. The system's not right or he's not healthy. Like maybe we'll find out. Javante Williams is not terrible because running the ball. He was pretty terrible last year. Raheem Mostert is a Raider. Does it matter?

[Davis Matic]

No, no.

[Heath Cummings]

Their starting running back is not on the roster.

[Davis Matic]

I. You could convince me that the three active running backs on week one game day are not on the roster right now for that.

[Heath Cummings]

Not, not, not a sincere McCormick guy we see here. Davis, DeAndre Hopkins is a Baltimore Raven. Does he matter?

[Davis Matic]

No, no. He. This is the DEZ Bryant, desean Jackson, Latavius Murray, Tevin Coleman, you know, Memorial Yearly Raven signing.

[Heath Cummings]

And then Mike Williams has joined Justin Herbert in Los Angeles. Does he matter? Rejoined.

[Davis Matic]

You know what? I'll actually give this one. I'm gonna say it doesn't matter, but it's. It's got a reasonable chance of mattering just because the, the bar for receiving production. I mean Will Disley mattered last year, you know, so the bar with the Chargers is pretty low.

[Heath Cummings]

I don't really know exactly what's happening in San Francisco except they seem to be having the most fire sale of any fire sale. And I was hoping that we were going to get some news actually during the show that didn't happen. But I did see a little bit of rumors about maybe Brandon Iuk is actually getting close to getting dealt. Let's start with him. Where are you at on IU coming off of this injury? Are you still a buy? Do you. Where would you rank him compared to that McLaren, Metcalf, Pickens group?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, I, I never liked Ayuk like his best season came on 112 targets. You know, just like remember Dante Pettis? Remember the year Dante Pettis had like a billion yards after catch and he was like a fourth round pick and redraft it's just I used to find play. I mean he's a five year college player who was like fine, you know, he's, now he's coming off an ACL and it feels like the team just like immediately regretted signing him to that extension and were happy to, you know, play Juwan Jennings. And you know, I, I, I, I, I'm way below market on, on IUK.

[Heath Cummings]

So are you above market on any of the 49ers wide receivers that are going to be left there, Juwan Jennings.

[Davis Matic]

Or Ricky Pearsall or anyone else above market on peer? Solid above market on Jennings?

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I was really as I went through the projections process this year, like just, man, if you just look at what Jennings has done whenever he's been given the opportunity and then you look at the opportunity he might have if both Debo and IUK are gone. Is it possible we're getting like a top 20 Juan Jennings season this year?

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, I mean the guy had the, the third highest fantasy point total in a single game last year. I mean obviously that is like a total outlier. But the interesting thing about Jennings was even when he was like a total non fantasy entity was a huge chunk of his career targets had come on third downs or in the red zone just for, I mean you could say for whatever reason. But I think it's probably just like, well one, he's a late wide receiver. He was a four star college quarterback recruit and was a quarterback his first year at Tennessee before. So he's really only played wide receiver for like seven years. Obviously that sounds like a long time but like right, Ricky Pearsall's probably been a wide receiver since he was 7 years old. You know, like that's just probably always been what he's done. So there's, I think there's reason to think he's got like a crazy ceiling season in him.

[Heath Cummings]

I know a lot of times we think of our dynasty leagues where we've got 30 roster spots as kind of the norm. There's a lot of shallow dynasty leagues out there as well. And this guy, to make his rookie picks, needs to get down to 14 players. Brandon says, what do you do with Tank Dell and Jonathan Brooks if you have to drop down to 14 players? Are you fine cutting both those guys?

[Davis Matic]

Oh, easy. I mean for 14 players, bro. Is, is Jonathan Brooks in the top 250 dynasty players right now? I don't have him ranked in my top 250. I just did mine last.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I do think he is in my top 250. I'm trying to do the math and think like in a 12 team league, no, no IR, that's like 160. Assuming you have no IR, I think you might have to cut bait on him. I was a pretty big Brooks guy coming out, but again, when the injuries.

[Davis Matic]

Start piling up like this, same, same knee twice. His doctor who performed the surgery is the Cowboys team doctor and they, despite being rumored to take him the whole time, did not take him. I think there's some smoke where there's fire there.

[Heath Cummings]

Matt has a question about James Cook and here's the deal. Matt, I appreciate Matt is a subscriber to Sportsline, sees the trade charts and sometimes when we're at this time of the month, I'm updating the rankings and that's moving things in the trade charts. But I've not fully looked at it yet. So I don't actually have a strong take on whether Cook has recently gone up. But I did want to ask you because he is a player I was all the way in on coming into this year and he was obviously amazing, but not necessarily in the way that I expected. It was a whole bunch. I, I thought we'd get a career high touchdowns, but his career high was like six coming into the year. Instead, he leads the NFL in touchdowns, but there's still way too many, even in the playoffs. Ty Johnson and Ray Davis touches for my liking and he for me is ranked amongst the running backs in that range of Ken Walker, Buck Irving, Chase Brown, where I feel like, man, these guys could be top five running backs, top ten running backs, and they're relatively young. And also I am not sure that something's not going to change drastically, drastically in the next year to make me, you know, kind of doubt them. Would you put Cook at the top of that group right now I've got him at the bottom.

[Davis Matic]

Yeah. Bottom for me. So like James Cook, I mean, I would have to, I would have to go back and look some stuff in my database, but I would guess he's the first ever running back to score 17 touchdowns who played less than half of his team snaps.

[Heath Cummings]

Right.

[Davis Matic]

I would, I would guess and see, this argument goes one of two ways. You go. Well, actually they want Josh Allen to score fewer rushing touchdowns. So actually James Cook is a smash because that just gives him more touchdowns. Or it goes, well, if you're just not on the field that often and you score a bunch of long ones, then you just run bad. You know, they do a quarterback sneak here, they do a fullback dive there Dalton Kincaid gets seven touchdowns instead of what do you get? Two. I think maybe I don't know. Duncan K is not very good.

[Heath Cummings]

No. But I'm not, I'm not gonna bank on him scoring a lot more touchdowns.

[Davis Matic]

So if all your points. I think 40% of his points came from touchdowns and they're what's your, what's your upside? Your. Because your upside's either he scores the same amount of touchdowns, which is pretty hard to do, or he plays more. But then they resigned Ty Johnson. Ray Davis doesn't look like a guy who's going to play less. I mean maybe Ray Davis does just play by all and, and he's a pure handcuff. But yeah, huge guy there.

[Heath Cummings]

So I think the upside is that James Cook is one of a handful of running backs that I'm really pretty sure are good. Like really good. But so the upside would be maybe they give him more touches. But yeah, but they've not done anything to signal that at all.

[Davis Matic]

So they've done, they've done nothing to signal it. I mean, I agree. I think James Cook is, is probably good. Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

So I like James Cook a lot. I don't like the way the Bills are using him. I think you hope that what happened in the playoffs it changes their behavior. That's going to do it for FFT Dynasty. I as always, Davis, thank you for being here. Go follow him beginning of the show. Tell him again about the Patreon.

[Davis Matic]

Yeah, also all of my dynasty stuff patreon.com davismatic that's like, you know, rookie prospect profiles, rookie rankings, dynasty rankings, get in the discord and all that stuff. And then all my videos are on YouTube.com davismatic thank you to Thomas, thank.

[Heath Cummings]

You to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you next Tuesday.

[Discover Representative]

Paramount Podcasts when you think about businesses that are selling through the roof like Aloe Allbirds or Skims, sure you think about a great product, a cool brand and brilliant marketing. But an often overlooked secret is actually the businesses behind the business making selling and for shoppers buying simple. For millions of businesses that business is Shopify. Nobody does selling better than Shopify. Home of the number one checkout on the planet. And the not so secret secret with shop pay that boosts conversions up to 50% meaning way less carts going abandoned and way more sales going. So if you're into growing your business, your commerce platform better be ready to sell. Whenever your customers are scrolling or strolling on the web, in your store, in their feed and everywhere in between. Upgrade your business and get the same checkout experience as business powerhouses like Aloe Allbirds and Skims. Sign up for your $1 per month trial [e-mail] Odyssey podcast all lowercase go to shopify.com Odyssey podcast to upgrade your selling today. Shopify.com Odysseypodcast.