← Fantasy Football Today
Fantasy Football Today
2024 Lessons Learned! Be Aggressive With Rookie WRs? (01/29 Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:01:09
How aggressive should we be when drafting rookie WRs? What about old RBs? What happened to Kyler Murray in 2024?
Loading summary
Transcript391 lines
- [00:00]
Adam
Looking to buy your dream home or rent that perfect apartment. With the Redfin app, you'll know the moment your next place hits the market. Set up your gotta have it wish list and Redfin will send you real time notifications for properties that match and when you're ready to see it in person. Scheduling a tour is just a tap away. Thinking about selling Redfin can do that too. In fact, Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents, so they know how to get the best price for your home. And with a listing fee as low as 1%, Redfin charges half of what others often charge. So you could save big. Like, really big. Last year, Redfin saved home sellers $118 million. So whether you're buying, renting, or selling, Redfin's ready to help you win. Download the Redfin app and start searching today.
- [00:47]
Dave
Where'd you get those shoes? Easy. They're from dsw. Because DSW has the exact right shoes for whatever you're into right now. You know, like the sneakers that make office hours like happy hour, the boots that turn grocery aisles into runways, and all the styles that show off the many sides of you from daydreamer to multitasker and everything in between. Because you do it all in really great shoes. Find a shoe for every you at your DSW store or DSW.com this is.
- [01:18]
Adam
Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
- [01:21]
Jamie
Wanna play? Can you believe this?
- [01:24]
Heath
No, I can't.
- [01:25]
Adam
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [01:28]
Jamie
Off to the races and he stay. This is gonna go the distance.
- [01:32]
Adam
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
- [01:38]
Jamie
It's a Dan Schneier day. Finally, we're bringing him back. Welcome, everybody. This is fantasy football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. And we are talking about the lessons we have learned. Two lessons from each of us from the 2024 season. And Dan, I'm gonna ask you, I disagree with one of your lessons. Which one do you think it is?
- [01:59]
Dan
I think it's the second lesson about.
- [02:01]
Jamie
The rookie wide receivers. Yes, that is correct.
- [02:04]
Dan
That it was a controversial one. And I plan to make my case when the time presents itself.
- [02:08]
Jamie
I think we just had the best rookie wide receiver. And I knew you'd say last in at least 10 years. And honestly, it was arguably better than even the 2014 rookie class. We had three guys finish in the top 13 in PPR. We only had two in the 2014 rookie class, Beckham and Evans.
- [02:26]
Heath
How many of the top 24 from.
- [02:27]
Jamie
That class, though I'll tell you, I will tell you in a moment.
- [02:32]
Heath
Brandon, was Brandon Cooks in top 24?
- [02:33]
Jamie
Yeah, he wasn't. I don't think he. I don't think he got.
- [02:37]
Dan
Landry was Evans. Landry Beckham.
- [02:40]
Jamie
It was Evan. It was bet. All right, I'll double check on Landry.
- [02:42]
Dan
And Cooks but I. Sammy, wasn't he.
- [02:45]
Jamie
Too Beckham at wide receiver 7. Evans 13. Kelvin Benjamin 15. Jordan Matthews 24. Sammy Watkins 26.
- [02:55]
Dan
He wasn't as good. Sammy. I'll the Marv. Sammy was the Marv Harrison of that class from a fantasy standpoint.
- [03:02]
Jamie
Yeah, a little bit. But I think he actually had four.
- [03:04]
Heath
Top 24, right?
- [03:06]
Jamie
Top 20. Well, if you want to expand it to top 26, it's five, but yeah, top 24, it's four.
- [03:11]
Heath
So four, four starting wide receivers in a two receiver league.
- [03:15]
Jamie
Yeah.
- [03:16]
Heath
And this class was three.
- [03:19]
Jamie
Yes, yes, because. Well, no, because Harrison was 25th this year.
- [03:25]
Dan
Oh, that's not top 24, is it?
- [03:28]
Jamie
No, actually I'm sorry. He was 25th in non PPR. He was 30th in full PPR. So yeah, this class had three in the top 13. The other class had three in the top 15 and five in the top 24. The other class was better but in terms of I would say three, three elites this one and two and you.
- [03:44]
Heath
Can'T azer stat this to make it fit your narrative.
- [03:47]
Jamie
You had two.
- [03:49]
Dan
This is the azer snack gets butchered though.
- [03:53]
Jamie
It's cutting it too actually I forget it. You're probably right because he's diluted. Here's the thing.
- [03:57]
Dan
Added this one to death.
- [03:58]
Jamie
Here's the thing. Evans was wide receiver 13 in that class and McConkey was wide receiver 13 in this class. And Evans actually that's overall not per game. Evans actually averaged 1.4 more PPR fantasy points per game than McConkey. So he was better than McConkey. This wasn't a great year for wide receivers I think at least at the top. All right, anyway, that's going to be one of the lessons going to be about rookie wide receivers and we'll get into the others. Well, how about right now? All right, Dan, go for it. Give me your first. Your first 2024 lesson learned.
- [04:29]
Dan
Before we do that since we have a little bit of time today on a kind of wonky show. It's a small thing I was thinking about. It's a small quick thing. I was thinking about you the other day. I was having a unprompted discussion with a friend about Action heroes. And Tom Cruise came up and. And I found the most damning evidence. I actually forgot to present this to Thomas beforehand. That's a mistake on my part. He might have been able to play it over. There might have been copyright issues. Anyway, so it might not been a moot point, but there is the most damning evidence of all time online that this is your worst take. There was a video of Tom Cruise doing. You know how he does his own stunts?
- [05:05]
Jamie
Yeah.
- [05:05]
Dan
Doing one of his own stunts. And in the video, he injures his ankle and it basically like bends backwards. It's a horrible looking injury. He finishes the scene. He finishes the scene on a gimpy ankle in one of the most damning pieces of evidence that you could ever present to anyone who says Tom Cruise is not an action hero.
- [05:22]
Heath
Would you. Would you believe I was actually talking about that exact scene yesterday with a bunch of buddies?
- [05:26]
Dan
That's amazing.
- [05:28]
Heath
And I saw a great clip of actually Matt Damon on AN Old Conan O'Brien show talking about a conversation he had with Tom Cruise where he did a scene, a stunt, his own stunt, where he was running down the side of a building.
- [05:45]
Dan
Yeah, that's the one with the, you.
- [05:46]
Heath
Know, a harness, whatever. And he said. He went to the safety guy and said, here's the scene I want to do. I've been. I've been wanting to do this for 15 years. And the safety guy goes, you can't do that. You're crazy. And Matt Damon goes. So the next thing Tom Cruise says was, I got a new safety guy.
- [06:02]
Dan
Yep. And that's. That's according to Adam. He's not an action hero.
- [06:06]
Jamie
Okay. I didn't say he wasn't a stunt man. I've just said, you know, it's his.
- [06:11]
Dan
Movies he doesn't want to take back. It's terrible. Let's get it. Let's get into some lessons learned.
- [06:16]
Jamie
Okay, Go ahead.
- [06:16]
Dan
We'll start at the top. With my first lesson learned. And my first lesson learned as we move forward to 2025 is we are sorry. The NFL has changed, and my running back strategy needs to change with it. So what do I mean there? You look at the last season and the last couple seasons, and the game has certainly changed from an aesthetic standpoint for fans, but also just when you look at the numbers and you look at the actual tape and when you turn this thing into an X's and O's game, defenses are playing a lot differently. There are few and foreign between Wink Martindales, who's not even Currently in the NFL right now. But Wink Martindale style coordinators, you can throw Steve Spagnolo in there, if you will, that are playing man coverage, press man, a lot of guys around the line of scrimmage, one safety high. And this is becoming a thing of the past because defensive coordinators have come from similar trees and in within that tree, it's a big Fangio tree is very popular in the NFL. And what that usually means is we're playing two high safeties or playing cover three or cover six and we're keeping everything underneath. Eyes on the quarterback, eyes on the underneath, rally play, team defense. So what does that mean? It means the NFL has changed with it. For a while we saw quarterbacks trying to figure out what to do with that. We saw a lot of passing and that has kind of come down over time. Last season I thought was a big, you know, crescendo of all that where teams started to lean more on the running back. Sometimes a solo running back in a lot of these situations earlier in the season, Joe Mixon, when that offense was a little bit better. So I think as that continues and there's no sign that that will change and we will get more of those man heavy, you know, single high safety look defenses, we're going to see teams more, more cognizant of running the football, establishing their run and establishing their team based on their blocking scheme and their run game. Potentially more of the receiving passing game. We haven't really seen that from the running backs, but I think for me, what it tells me is if the NFL and the teams are starting to emphasize running back and the run game is a bigger part of their offense, I need to emphasize running back as a bigger part of my fantasy strategy. And so this coming season it's going to be a little different for me when I go to the drafts. I've been very anti drafting running back for a while. I made it clear on this show. But as things change, you have to change with them. So that's lesson number one for me.
- [08:24]
Heath
But do you think that, and I don't disagree with you, but do you think that based on how teams are going to adjust to that and this is not, not a I think superstar running back class coming into the league, but it's a pretty good one.
- [08:40]
Dan
Oh yeah.
- [08:40]
Heath
Especially with a few guys at the top that we're gonna see, you know, maybe I, I, I'll try and you know, not, not go overboard with maybe, maybe three starting running backs out of this class, maybe two. I think it's fair, you know, that that end up on teams that they could be the, the starter or let's say like a Bucky Irving situation by you know, week four, five, six, whatever the case may be, that they end up emerging starter, same thing Tyrone Tracy, that we're going to get a little bit more depth at the position. And and to your point, you know, what we did see, I think a little bit more this year was more of a feature back and less of tandems. You know, we did see a lot more teams, you know, going toward not, not, not, not 1980s, 1990s of everybody's got a, you know, a guy that's getting 250 plus carries. But we've seen, you know, a little bit of a shift to, you know, more of a. More of a focal point toward one guy that it opens up the position a little bit more and that we get an opportunity to still draft the same way. If that's your philosophy. Because as we saw this year, as we see every year, I know Adam, we could probably make the case that last year was better than this year in terms of hero RB or just waiting on guys and getting guys away off the waiver wire. They're always going to be guys who emerge and you know, you can still lock up your stud receivers and like, for me, I'm not gonna probably deviate from hero rb. To me, that work is. It's strategy that works the best for how I like to draft. So get that one anchor running back and then throw some darts. You know, I did it in our dynasty draft yesterday. I, I've been doing it in our early mock so far. So I almost like the fact that teams are doing this this way because you can still get your, your stud receivers and then build out your running back depth and maybe a little bit more robust way than we've seen in the past.
- [10:26]
Jamie
Well, some stats to back up the trends that, that Dan's talking about. You look at pass attempts per game and the where it ranks. Pro Football Reference ranks like every season basically since the 1930s. So the highest, the most pass attempts per game were happening about eight years ago. 2016, 2015, 35.7 pass attempts per game per team. 2013, 2020, they're next on the list. 2019, 2014, 2024 is, is 24th on the list of most past attempts per game. 2023 was 15th. We had one fewer pass attempt per game per team in 2014 than 2015. So, so that's, that's the difference between 15th and 24th in the in the ranking, it's a lot of numbers I just threw at you. But we're throwing less in terms of passing yards per game. 2024 ranked 17th, 217.6 passing yards per game in 2015. That was the peak of this 2015 and 16. It was over 240 passing yards per game, 244 pass game. We're down to 218 per game this past year, the year before, 219 per game. So yeah, passing is down. Which also could make you say, should I put more emphasis on elite quarterbacks? You could think of it that way as well. I'd also like to point out that ADOT just doesn't matter anymore. Here are the bottom three teams in ADOT this year. Dolphins, Lions, Chiefs. Here are the top three teams. Colts, Packers, Ravens. You get the Bengals are 23rd, the Bucks 25th in ADOT. So that doesn't seem to matter at all. But yeah, no, it's a good point, Dan. All right, I like that first lesson. Doesn't love this. Don't love the second lesson. Do not love the second lesson. Go for it. Actually, before we do that, if you haven't signed up for bedmgm, let me tell you about BETMGM real quick here. You've been hearing about it, but there's still time to sign up and use our bonus code fantasy and you're gonna get up to a fifteen hundred dollar first bet offer. On your first wager with BetMGM, download the BetMGM app and sign up and use the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10. That's it, just $10. Place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to 1500 dollars in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. All right, lesson number two. You're on mute, sir. You're on mute.
- [12:55]
Heath
Before I.
- [12:55]
Dan
Sorry. There's some work being done on my house. I want to make sure I mute when not talking. But before we get to lesson number two, I want to address something Jamie said actually that was interesting. So I think to be clear, when I say that that's one of the lessons I learned and I'm trying to carry forward. It doesn't just mean for like locating my early backs, my workhorses in rounds one and two and three, because I, I think Jamie makes a great point about that. We may have some more uncertainty there. We may have some more time shares. What I'm looking at really when I say that is down the line. I'm talking about like decisions I would never make in the past. Like will my flex be a running back? That used to be a decision that I would always say receiver, especially in any version of ppr, non PPR would be maybe a debate. Now I'm looking at it like, let me just get the best player in those spots. And that oftentimes now, and we know this because we were setting our lineups every week. We were going through this this past season. It was a running back in a lot of those situations and we were throwing that in. We're slotting them in. Maybe you threw in the receiver, but a lot of times that receiver didn't do anything. Because the fact of the matter is teams are not going to, I don't think, at least adjust what they're doing defensively. I think the changes could come on offense, not defensively because it's. Have you guys ever played the game Stratomatic or heard of it? Either of you?
- [14:04]
Jamie
The baseball thing?
- [14:05]
Heath
Football?
- [14:06]
Jamie
Oh no, football.
- [14:07]
Dan
I would love to play with either of you. It'd be so much fun. To me, it's the greatest game ever created. It's a board game that really mimics football. And in that game you can set your defense a certain way. You move 11 pieces around the board to set your defense a certain way to invite the run. And oftentimes when you do that and the opponent knows you're going to do that, he calls Ron. He calls it perfectly. He still only gets two or three or four yards. And that's essentially what these NFL defenses are doing. They're daring them to run and they're relying on their D line to make the plays. And oftentimes they do. So I don't see that really changing. And within that, the talented players that Jamie was referencing, there's going to be about 20 running backs in this class that people think are NFL grade ready to be impact players in the NFL. They may not be the Bijan Robinsons, but they may be the Bucky Irvings and the Tyron Tracy. Those guys make plays and you give them the ball to make plays. So I think NFL teams are going to continue doing that. So I think what it really, what we really could see is more flex is becoming running backs and more depth that you want like those middle round picks to be running back picks over the wide receivers. That's, that's where I might be making the biggest change in my strategy.
- [15:08]
Heath
I think what's somewhat fascinating about this is that. And I'll get to it with, you know, one of my lessons. But the, the, the players that we may end up reaching for at that position, that could be problematic. And that's the older running backs.
- [15:26]
Jamie
All right, well, we, we'll take a break here before we get to Dan's second lesson and then we'll tear it to shreds. We'll be right back on fantasy football.
- [15:32]
Dave
Today, ready to level up. Jumbo Casino is your playbook to fun. It's free to play with no purchase necessary. Enjoy hundreds of casino style games like bingo, slots and solitaire anytime anywhere with fresh release whether you're at home or on the go. Let Shumba Casino bring the excitement to you. Plus get free daily login bonuses and a free welcome bonus. Join now for your chance to redeem some serious prizes. Play Chumba Casino today. No purchase necessary. VGW Group void. We're prohibited by law 18 TNC supply.
- [16:04]
Adam
This episode is brought to you by Love Hurts. Ki Hui Kwan has had quite a career, from childhood roles in Indiana Jones.
- [16:11]
F
And the Temple of Doom and the.
- [16:13]
Adam
Goonies to a recent academy award win for everything Everywhere all at once. But now Kee finally stars as a leading man in the film Love Hurts. Love Hurts is the perfect date night movie with its mix of over the top action comedy and a ton of heart. Love Hurts only at theaters February 7th.
- [16:32]
Jamie
All right, here we go. Rookie wide receivers, what do you have to say about them?
- [16:36]
Dan
I'm happy that I got to say this right after the commercial was the masters. That music is so soothing. It just gets me right in the mood to give this lesson that's about to get torn to sh shreds by Adam. At least let me finish it. The lesson will be and make my case. Or should I give you the lesson and then make the case or should you just rip it apart? Just hearing the actual lesson, you know.
- [16:54]
Jamie
I'm ready to rip it apart. Yeah, go ahead.
- [16:56]
Dan
I rip it apart. The lesson. The second lesson for me is it's not possible to be too aggressive drafting rookie wide receivers this coming season.
- [17:05]
Jamie
Yeah, I mean, I just disagree with that. I think you you look at just go back to 2023 and we had four wide receivers drafted consecutively in the first round and only one of them was was fantasy relevant. And it was Jordan Addison who finished his wide receiver 18 in non PPR, number 23 and in full PPR. And he had 10 or 11 touchdowns I think that year. But the best wide receivers were Puka Nakua, who was amazing and then Addison. Then you had Jaden Reed, you had Rasheed Rice, who was only good for like the last five or six games. You had Zay Flowers, who was wide receiver.
- [17:36]
Dan
Adam, was Kuka Nakua a rookie wide.
- [17:39]
Jamie
Receiver two years ago?
- [17:41]
Dan
Isn't that what we're talking about?
- [17:42]
Jamie
Yeah, he was amazing, but he was the only one.
- [17:45]
Dan
I thought you weren't qualifying him. All right.
- [17:46]
Jamie
Yeah, Tank Dell was tanked out. Was great too. Now tank towel. Don't tell us. Great Tank. That was great too. But those first round receivers were. Were a disappointment overall. Even Flowers, you know, finishing his wide receiver 30 per game, he wasn't really that good for fantasy. I don't know. I just. Look, we had. We had three great rookie wide receivers this year. Before that, we had six wide receivers in the previous nine years combined. Six rookies finish as top 13 wide receivers. So it's just this. I just don't want to overreact to. To this season. I do think you can be too over aggressive with rookie wide receivers and I disagree with your stupid lesson.
- [18:27]
Dan
All right, I'll make my case. Now as the. As the drilling begins in the background of the bathroom, that's being worked on.
- [18:33]
Heath
So they're fixing the toilet. The famous toilet.
- [18:35]
Dan
Famous toilet is finally getting redone. It's gonna be nice, but it's gonna be. Maybe I'll move the. The setup back up back.
- [18:42]
Jamie
There you go.
- [18:43]
Dan
But listen, Adam, even in the case you made about a class that was viewed. And I think it's fine to. To make. To make the qualification that yes, this 24 class that we just saw was not historically, but it was up there for one of the better wide receiver glasses. But the 23 class was up there for one of the worst at the top. And that's the class you're using. But even within that class and that I remember back to August two years ago. I don't know if you do because it seems like, you know, but we weren't taking Zay Flowers anywhere near. We were taking him like wide receiver 40 in those drafts. He was not. He didn't make a lot of noise in training camp. He was injured. So there was even value to be had on him. Just getting to wires over 30 JSN was a bust from. From where we were drafting him. That's probably the biggest case you can make. But even if you look at this past year, Marvin Harrison was the bus based on adp. We pumped him up and he didn't. He didn't deliver every. But you had hits across the board. Even lad McConkey coming on late. Right. Brian Thomas Jr. Malik neighbors. You're looking at players who just blew out their adp.
- [19:39]
Jamie
That's just three guys, though. That's not across the board. That's. That's just three. But like, they were great.
- [19:45]
Dan
Okay. It's a fantasy. The strategy here isn't. I'm gonna do. I'm gonna take six shots and all six are gonna work. The strategy is if I take six shots, they're. The three that work are going to be league winning values.
- [19:56]
Jamie
Yeah. No one drafted all three of those guys. And. And I would go back to 2020. I go back to 2022. Chris Olave was the best rookie wide receiver in 2022. He was wide receiver 27 per game. Garrett Wilson, wide receiver 31 per game. Drake London, wide receiver, 40.
- [20:13]
Dan
Drafted high.
- [20:14]
Jamie
It doesn't matter. Neither was Brian Thomas. You know, you take your shot. These guys didn't work. These guys didn't work.
- [20:20]
Dan
If you're wide receiver 30, for example, your borderline starter on a weekly basis or you're a starter in most leagues. Most leagues play three receivers.
- [20:26]
Jamie
Yeah.
- [20:27]
Dan
And then past that adp. So it's a win still.
- [20:29]
Jamie
Okay. But it, but it's not like a very small victory. It's not a huge win here. It's not a loss.
- [20:35]
Dan
It's not a loss. The point, the point of why I'm saying this, and I think this is the case every year, but obviously you should be more aggressive in the stronger rookie classes at wide receiver. But no matter what, the ADP is always going to be lower than it should be because people haven't seen them play football. They're not common names and because their roles are uncertain. But as we're moving forward and we're seeing things change in the NFL, we're also seeing the targets not go the way that we're expecting. We're seeing different target chairs. We're expecting every single season. We're seeing players emerge based on injuries that, that you could say that's happening, you know, throughout time, but it's still the case. And so no matter what you're going to, in my mind at least you're going to be making a good bet. It doesn't mean it's going to work every time. It just means that if these bets work for every six or something like that, you're going to be printing value over time. And I really do believe with most of these players, like lad, McConkey is the, the best example of this. Last year, he's going undrafted in a Lot of leagues or end of the draft, he had no role, he was injured in camp. People are like, oh, they're going to play a lot of 12 personnel. They're going to play 21 personnel. He's not even going to be on the field. And yet the people who bet on talent there as the rookie receiver who liked his tape were huge winners down the line and he was kind of like a league winning pick for you in the playoffs.
- [21:44]
Heath
I think the thing that you got to look at first off, this is a terrible anti take by you, Adam. Like this is, this is exactly how you should be playing fantasy.
- [21:52]
Jamie
I mean, I look obviously I draft rookie wide receivers. I don't want to, I don't want to make it out. Like I don't. But I think you run the risk of over drafting them if you, you.
- [22:02]
Heath
Know, that's not what Dan's saying though.
- [22:04]
Jamie
I think that is kind of what Dan's saying. He.
- [22:05]
Heath
No, he's not saying overdraft them. I think, I think, I mean, I.
- [22:07]
Jamie
Feel like you can't be too, he said you can't be too aggressive drafting rookie wide receivers.
- [22:13]
Heath
Yes, but that, that doesn't mean you're taking them in the first three, four rounds, even if correct. It means that you're trying to take shots on guys that are, have the opportunity to be successful.
- [22:22]
Jamie
I would never, I would never dispute that. I would never dispute that. No, I'm not, I'm just saying rookie wide receivers are not the only players that have a chance of, of giving you late round value or mid round value.
- [22:33]
Heath
But that's the idea. The idea would be, is like, okay, so just, just to throw out some examples from last year. Dan gave the positive ones, you know, the neighbors, Thomas McConaughey, Keon Coleman for example, was drafted or you know, late round range, you know, for, for mid to late round range did not pan out. I know for me last year, one of my last picks in a lot of my early drafts, you know, so early August was Jalen McMillan and you know, carried him for a few weeks. Had the touchdown I think he scored in week one, if I'm not mistaken, a 29 yard touchdown catch. It was only catch, did nothing the rest of the way, you know, then Godwin Evans get hurt, we all buy back in. He does nothing again for three, four weeks, then has this monster finish, you know, so you have to obviously sort of catch it a little bit with. When do you have these guys on your roster and, and when do you, you know, part ways?
- [23:27]
Jamie
Okay, there's no way that Jaylen McMillan is an example of drafting successfully at wide receiver. Nobody.
- [23:34]
Dan
Correct.
- [23:34]
Heath
No, hold on to him. That's what I'm saying.
- [23:36]
Dan
It's like nobody did.
- [23:37]
Heath
You know, you have one of the more horrific examples of this. You drafted Justin Jefferson and dropped him because he wasn't doing much early in the season. And. And then he goes on for this monster finish. That's the. The risk you run is you take some shots on these guys, you know, so I'll give you another horrible example. Jalen Polk goes to New England and a lot of hype because drafted, I think, ahead of Makaki. Right? Or right out right around McConnell in round two, has this great opportunity and does nothing. So how long do you carry these guys? Xavier Leggette, for example, great opportunity, right. Goes to Carolina. They don't have a. A standout receiving core. Does nothing, you know, so you have to sort of understand what you're doing here when you're taking these. These shots. No one was cutting Marvin Harrison or Malik Neighbors.
- [24:20]
Jamie
What about Roma Dunes? He was a bust worthy, who was.
- [24:24]
Dan
A big help for you down the track.
- [24:25]
Jamie
Yeah, but he was a bus before that. Nobody was holding.
- [24:28]
Dan
A lot of people held on to him because he had scores early in the season.
- [24:33]
Heath
The thing again, it's. It's what's your investment? How deep are your rosters, how long can you carry these guys? And you may end up making a bad decision because you may have to drop one of these players and then they become what they could become, you know, Odell Beckham did not get off to a great start. He was hurt in the rookie season. He was like week four. Yeah, he became a monster, you know, so. But to make shots on opportunities and seeing if it pans out. And. And that's what is, I think, you know, once you get past, let's say like round eight. So you're past all the obvious rookies. You know, you're past the. The neighbors. You're past the. I'm trying to think the way it.
- [25:09]
Dan
Was, but that was it. That's kind of my point that I'm making. Jamie, like, even this year, everyone knew this was a story class. Adam. Everyone knew it. It was talked about. Everyone who followed the draft.
- [25:19]
Jamie
I drafted a lot of rookies. I. I don't.
- [25:21]
Dan
No, no, this is the perfect example. Even in this year, where everyone knew is an historic class. The ADP was still so depressed. We were talking about with Heath, like, oh, wow, would you even take. Heath was. Wouldn't take neighbors in the first six rounds. Right? Like and Brian Thomas Jr. Not drafted. Xavier.
- [25:35]
Jamie
Word.
- [25:36]
Dan
These are all last round picks despite being first round picks or borderline first round picks in the NFL draft in a historic class. Where can you get that kind of opportunity elsewhere in fantasy team is using a first round pick on Xavier Worthy or Brian Thomas Jr. And you can get him in basically the last round of your fantasy drafts despite it being ballyhooed as a historic class.
- [25:56]
Jamie
Okay, you're making my point for me. You're making my point for me because it was a historic class. That's my point.
- [26:03]
Dan
Even in a historic class, the ADPs are depressed and it's an easy value gamble. Brian Thomas cost nothing.
- [26:10]
Jamie
All right?
- [26:12]
Dan
Nothing for fantasy drafters.
- [26:14]
Jamie
We're not going to have a historic class again. That's what I'm saying. Like you're. You're basing your wide receiver rookie, your rookie wide receiver strategy based on this class. You keep calling it a historic class. So I'm saying don't overreach. For why for rookie wide receiver. Of course. I'm not going to disagree with taking a shot on a guy in the last round.
- [26:34]
Dan
That's what it always is. He was basically a last round pick.
- [26:38]
Jamie
It's insincere to call Xavier Worthy and Roma Dunes a late last round picks.
- [26:43]
Dan
Those are 10 to 12th round picks. Not last.
- [26:45]
Jamie
Was not a 10th to 12th round pitch pick.
- [26:47]
Dan
Maybe he moved up to the 8th by the end of it. But, but lad McConkey was injured throughout camping. He was like a 1312 to 13th round pick.
- [26:54]
Jamie
Yes, I know he was. He, he was a greater.
- [26:56]
Dan
Worthy wasn't being drafted high either. He didn't have a big camp and there was Hollywood Brown at the time and tons of competition.
- [27:01]
Jamie
The top 100 pick. I'm looking at our ADP right now. He was 97th overall. Roma Dunes A was.
- [27:08]
Dan
When is this from this adp?
- [27:09]
Jamie
I don't know. I'm looking at CBS adp.
- [27:11]
Heath
It's. It would be our last.
- [27:12]
Jamie
Our last adp.
- [27:13]
Dan
Yeah, I'm not talking about last run because by then they get hyped. But you know, the last day of the season.
- [27:18]
Heath
Nobody. No, but this is, this is even.
- [27:20]
Dan
That's fine though. I'll let you use that.
- [27:22]
Jamie
Thomas Jr. Was 117th. He wasn't your last pick. He was your 10th round pick. Thomas Jr. Was 117th overall.
- [27:29]
Heath
Okay, give me. Give me some guys around him. So we're just talking about taking shots.
- [27:32]
Jamie
So actually this is perfect. Roma Dun. Lad McConkey Brian Thomas Jr were all within six picks of each other.
- [27:38]
Heath
Okay, but give me some of the veterans that were in that same range.
- [27:41]
Jamie
Jackson, Smith and Jigga and Jigba, Courtland, Sutton, Marquis, Brown, Jameson Williams, Khalil, Shakir.
- [27:49]
Heath
These guys are all better.
- [27:51]
Dan
He usually cherry picked some good guys.
- [27:52]
Jamie
I'm not cherry picking anything. I read every single wide receiver. So. So they. This was a great. First of all, what a great stretch of wide receivers.
- [28:00]
Dan
Yeah, it's a great late round receiver.
- [28:02]
Jamie
Look, obviously I don't disagree with the thought of like you love a rookie wide receiver, take a shot on them. I'm just saying that this was a great year.
- [28:09]
Dan
I agree.
- [28:09]
Jamie
For these three rookie wide receivers. There were some busts there as well. The journey of Xavier Worthy was pretty bad. I mean he was. He was useless until week 11 and. And he probably would have continued to be useless if Rashee Rice hadn't gotten hurt. Or at least it's possible.
- [28:23]
Dan
But that's the point. Opportunity that opens up that we don't expect, right? The two points I'm making here. One, there's opportunity every year that we don't expect. Two, people will always be more hesitant. Take a player if they haven't seen him play. And three, most importantly, most importantly three, the investment is not high. Even in. Again, even in a year that was ballyhooed as a historic year. These guys weren't drafted high. 117 for a first round pick. Brian Thomas Jr. Who could emerge as the number one player and did emerge as the number one player in that offense. That's what I'm talking about there.
- [28:52]
Jamie
All right.
- [28:53]
Dan
What other position could you do that at?
- [28:55]
Heath
Dan wins, Adam loses.
- [28:56]
Jamie
Oh, give me a break.
- [28:58]
Heath
That's like Dennis.
- [28:59]
Dan
We'll let this. We'll let the listeners decide. I'm pretty confident.
- [29:02]
Jamie
I think there's a lot of overlap in what we're saying and what we believe in. What I think. I just think you went too far with it calling Brian Thomas your last. Your last pick. That is obviously not what happened in.
- [29:13]
Heath
A lot of drafts.
- [29:13]
Dan
He. I know in that it says 117s overall.
- [29:15]
Jamie
Yeah, I mean it's just our ADP, that's just like thousands of the end.
- [29:18]
Dan
Of the season ADP when he finally got some hype. Most people are not.
- [29:22]
Jamie
Oh, I don't agree with that. But okay, you know what? I'm just gonna go to my lessons really quick here and get them out of the way before we run out of time. Lesson number one, we may not know how to evaluate how good a player actually is. This is a really frustrating and really tough one. But you think about Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith. I would even throw Russell Wilson in there. Not that he was so great or anything like that, but quarterbacks that have been left for dead that nobody thought could ever be good and you know, we just have to maybe open our minds a little bit and, and look at new situations and, and I'll just say, I'll just give another player that I think could be the next in that and I think it could be Aaron Rodgers. And I don't think he could necessarily be fantasy relevant or, or all that. I think he could be like, you know, a streamer or something, but I think he could be good for a wide receiver. I still think that Rogers, if he continues to play, could have good, good season, a good season left in him. He's not going to run at all. But he was hurt like from, for pretty much all of last year. And I, and I think Nathaniel Hackett has basically no credentials. So, you know, good, good situation, good offensive coordinator. Rogers could still be a good quarterback. That can help a fantasy wide receiver. I think I felt like Saquon Barkley wasn't really so great anymore. I didn't know. I didn't know. In his rookie season, saquon Barkley had seven carries of 40 or more yards. The next five years combined he had six. And then this year he had the most big runs in NFL history. If you include, you include the playoffs. I didn't know that Derrick Henry could be this good. He had averaged 4.3, 4.4, 4.2 yards per carry in his last three seasons. He averaged 5.9 this past year. I thought Joe Mixon, even though his metrics weren't that much better, thought he looked a lot better this year. So we got to open our minds and, and maybe not act so certain about who's good and who's bad. And maybe, maybe Naji Harris, maybe if he ends up in a good situation. I don't think so. He has like no big playability, but maybe he could be better than what we've seen. So that's lesson number one. It's really, I don't know what to make of it other than need to be more open minded, but it is hard to know situation matters as much.
- [31:25]
Dan
Yeah, I was gonna say that that's the key lesson to take away from that like Mixon's the best example. I was much higher than him, the consensus because I looked at it like he's playing in a Bengals run scheme that does not fit his skill set at all. And he gets to go to outside zone where he can do the plant and you watch mix and play. He's at his best when he plants that foot and just drives vertically. And he's made some of his biggest runs this year with the Texans doing so. And so it was a great fit. So just look for maybe those blocking scheme fits or in your sense with the quarterback, just better fits for the quarterback from a system standpoint.
- [31:54]
Jamie
And another lesson is that this one is tough. But preseason injuries create miserable draft day dilemmas, as I can think of. I think more often than not, you know, we should take them seriously. I think about Travis Kelsey 2 years ago hurting his foot. I think about Tyreek Hill. Tyreek Hill tore a ligament in his wrist in the preseason and we just made nothing of it. But on the other hand, Jameer Gibbs had two soft tissue injuries and he hurt his hamstring a couple weeks before the season started, I think, and we downgraded him a little bit. A little bit. And he finished his RB1, of course. And Pukinakua hurt his knee in the preseason and that ended up being a big deal because he re injured it in week one and he missed some time finishes.
- [32:35]
Dan
RB1.
- [32:36]
Jamie
Yeah, because Barkley didn't play in week 18 and Gibbs had like 40 points or 38 points or something crazy in week 18, not RB1 per game. I think preseason injuries are pretty important and we need not to devalue them, but they do create these horrible draft day dilemmas because you don't want to pass up on a guy like Jameer Gibbs because he's got this hamstring injury. So when it's. When it starts to fall to a point where it's like, okay, I can't let him fall anymore. That's that jump. Oh, McCaffrey's a great example.
- [33:03]
Dan
Good example. Yeah. Absolutely the opposite.
- [33:05]
Jamie
Absolutely. Yeah.
- [33:06]
Dan
I still think from my experience playing fantasy. I'm curious where you guys stand on this. This is definitely just like anecdotal eye test. I guess I would still tend to stay away from the preseason injury guys. I. I don't really like investing in them, that I think it's too much risk.
- [33:23]
Heath
It's just, I think what it comes down to is where do they fall? You know? So like Gibbs fell to round two, if I'm not mistaken, based on his adp. Like, it was hard to pass up on that if he was still sitting there. McCaffrey fell to the middle of the first round, you know, it was like, okay, hopefully he's back. You take a shot on that.
- [33:39]
Dan
There was some bad reporting on McCaffrey, too. To be fair.
- [33:43]
Heath
It wasn't bad reporting. It was a bad quote from his coach. He said if there's a playoff game, he's playing tomorrow.
- [33:48]
Dan
Right.
- [33:48]
Heath
You know, you know when Kyle Shanahan says that like, like you should miss somewhat believe that it's not going to be eight weeks.
- [33:57]
Dan
Yeah.
- [33:57]
Jamie
All right, we can take a break here and save time for Jamie's. Jamie's lessons.
- [34:02]
Heath
So far, yours. Your lessons learned are so much better than that.
- [34:06]
Dan
Thank you. I appreciate. I put a lot more time into it. And you know, Adam, it's. Adam needs an. He needs a break. He needs a break. It's the off season.
- [34:12]
Jamie
News and notes. We do have some news to get to, including we. Actually, I skipped over the Bobby Slowik news, but that was pretty interesting and I wanted to have time for some fantasy cops. So we'll see if we can make that happen. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.
- [34:25]
G
This episode is brought to you by Allstate. Some people just know they could save hundreds on car insurance by checking Allstate First. Like, you know, to check the date of the big game first before you accidentally buy tickets on your 20th wedding anniversary and have to spend the next 20 years of your marriage making up for it. Yeah, checking first is smart. So check Allstate first for a quote that could save you hundreds. You're in good hands with Allstate Savings. Vary terms apply. Allstate Fire and Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates, Northbrook, Illinois.
- [34:55]
F
Welcome to the oil business. Billy Bob Thornton, Demi Moore and Jon Hamm star in a new Paramount plus original series.
- [35:02]
Jamie
The world has already convinced itself that.
- [35:04]
Adam
You are evil, and I am evil for providing them the one thing they interact with every day.
- [35:09]
Jamie
You're all right.
- [35:09]
Dan
Here we go.
- [35:10]
F
From Taylor Sheridan, executive producer of Yellowstone.
- [35:13]
Jamie
Get everybody back.
- [35:14]
Dan
Go. Go.
- [35:15]
F
You just put a giant bullseye. Found this place.
- [35:18]
Jamie
We rolled the dice one last time.
- [35:21]
F
Landman New series now streaming exclusively on Paramount plus.
- [35:25]
Jamie
All right, welcome back, everybody. Jamie, two lessons learned. Go for it.
- [35:29]
Heath
Well, I kind of alluded to this with, you know, when you brought up some of the. The running back conversation. I. I don't. I shouldn't be as rigid on older running backs based on what happened this past season. That, and I think I kind of touched on this a little bit. I hate using this phrase again, but I'll use it again, you know, moving the goalpost a little bit on maybe when the age should be considered for when these guys are going to break down. I mean, think about what just happened. Derek Henry, at 30, had one of his best seasons ever. Again, situation changed, but he was great. Alvin Kamara, 29 years old, 19 PPR points per game. Joe Mixon, 28 years old, had a fantastic season. As you guys just talked about, you know, his changing teams. James Connor did not get injured until the end of the season. Had another fantastic, fantastic season. Aaron Jones, you know, wasn't a superstar, but was still very serviceable, you know, despite the fact that it looked like he might be falling off a cliff. I'm trying to think of anybody else.
- [36:23]
Dan
In Barkley people considered old for running backs. That's. That was a big part of it. Barkley somewhere.
- [36:28]
Heath
I know he's like, yeah, Barkley, 27. I don't know if that really was.
- [36:31]
Dan
That the age cliff.
- [36:33]
Heath
Yeah, he wasn't really in that range for me. Like, I don't. I don't view 27 as like the, you know, the. The grim reaper time. Usually it's, you know, 28, 29 is when they start to. At least for me, I start to get a little bit worried. But these guys were great. They were absolutely great. You know, now, again, now they're all going to be older. We'll see how it, you know, how they're viewed and, you know, it'll come down to, you know, where I want to value these guys, where ADP tells us these guys are going if. If they're worth it or not. But in. In the case of, you know, these, these older running backs, they were still amazing. And, you know, I have to sort of re. Change my approach a little bit, you know, not just to write them off completely.
- [37:12]
Jamie
All right, how about number two?
- [37:14]
Heath
Not all running quarterbacks are great.
- [37:18]
Jamie
It's true. But. But this one is where, like, more so to me than rookie wide receivers. You need to take shots on mobile quarterbacks because they have just so much upside.
- [37:28]
Heath
Correct. But that's the point is, like, not all of them are going to be great, you know, and so it's like we look at it and say we had this conversation. Adam, I think it was on fantasy football to express Heath and I discussed a little bit yesterday on the Dynasty show, you know, so he actually asked me, it's funny, the same question you asked me. Is there any concern about Jane Daniels going into year two based on the rookie season that CJ Stroud just had? And, you know, we had all these high expectations for him year over year. And so the answer I gave you, the same thing I told Heath is like, you know, the running is going to save him. You know, from a fantasy perspective, if the passing struggles, you know, at least, you know, Jay and Daniels can rely on his legs and sort of still give you somewhat of a, of a higher floor than what we saw with Stroud, who was just completely miserable when everything sort of fell apart for him in the case, let's say, of, of Anthony Richardson. So, you know, you have a guy that had. I. The reason I came up with this one was, you know, I went back, looked at bold predictions and one of my bold predictions was we're gonna have three quarterbacks run for 800 yards or more, which would have been a record. We had two, you know, so the two of the three that I thought would do it, Lamar Jackson and Jane Daniels, they did. The third one, Anthony Richardson did not. And so we saw how this unfolded for him. He was, he was good when he ran the ball, he was terrible when he threw the ball, you know, and so you have to have some, somewhat of a, a passing presence, you know, and so I don't think you should expect these guys to be 3,800, you know, like what Jay and Daniels did, 4,900, like Lamar Jackson did. That's not sustainable. You know, if you can get a 3, 700 season out of your quarterback, kind of what Daniel Jones did his, his best year in his career, you're gonna have a pretty good fantasy season, you know, so touchdowns will matter, clearly. But, you know, I think about Kyler Murray too, you know, where the running wasn't necessarily the best for him in terms of where he was at for the season. And he had an up and down, a choppy year, you know, wasn't great, you know, where for me going into the year was okay. Now he's got these weapons, plus what'll do with his legs, you know, two years removed from his acl. He should get back to being a standout fantasy quarterback and again, had good moments, but just not consistent. So we'll see how this, this quarterback class, you know, Sanders is obviously somebody who can move. Cam Ward, you know, can run a little bit, not to maybe the level of a Jane Daniels, but, you know, these guys are going to have, have mobility. And as we're seeing, you know, being a mobile quarterback is huge, you know, for what NFL teams are looking for, you know, just being a pure pocket passer. Unless you're Joe Burrow, I don't think is gonna, you know, carry these guys anymore. They got to have the ability to make some plays with their legs to some extent. Like a Drake may like a Bonix, you know, we'll see if Panics can be one of those guys too. But in any event, don't, you know, for me it's just don't fall for the, the shiny rushing, you know, quarterback toy that I always get too excited about and sometimes it burns us.
- [40:02]
Jamie
Kyler's pretty interesting because 575 rushing yards I think from Kyler Murray. That's pretty good. 572. He's only had one year with more than that and that was a year where he ran 133 times. By comparison, he ran 78 times this year. But this is. This I think was a fairly normal, if not. Well, let me just see yards per game. Game. It's pretty normal. Pretty normal year for Kyler Murray. I Richardson. It's easy to see what went wrong for Richardson. He's just not a good quarterback yet and couldn't really make up for it with his rushing on a week to week basis. I don't know what happened with Kyler. He didn't throw that much. Touchdown rate was down. He feels like we're gonna do bounce back candidates tomorrow. Feels like a. He feels like a pretty obvious bounce back candidate to me.
- [40:47]
Heath
Should be.
- [40:48]
Jamie
And he wasn't that bad. He was a little under 20 points per game. But yeah, I mean I wasn't.
- [40:53]
Heath
The expectations were much. I mean at least for me, you know, I was expecting a breakout season for Kyler.
- [40:58]
Jamie
It's funny how things work. He was one guy. I don't think I drafted a single share of Kyler Murray and I really regretted it because we kept talking about him. He's like one of our favorite kind of sleepery, someone who drafted way too.
- [41:10]
Dan
Many shares of Kyler Murray. You did not regret it.
- [41:13]
Jamie
No, I know it worked. It worked out. It worked out, you know, but not on purpose. That was luck for me. But I think Kyler just look, if, if Harrison has a better year then he'll have a better. They'll lift each other up, I hope. And then like McBride scoring hardly any touchdowns. That was weird.
- [41:31]
Dan
I think from watching that system now two years in a row there I'm downgrading my thoughts and expectations of the ceiling of Kyler Murray. First of all, I think he's genuinely trying to become a better quarterback, which means going through more of your progressions and getting the ball out as a quarterback on time. He's not the greatest at that in my opinion. Doesn't use the middle of the field that well. He doesn't really time up and sync up with Harrison. But yeah.
- [41:55]
Heath
See the middle of field.
- [41:56]
Dan
What'd you say?
- [41:57]
Heath
It's hard for the smaller quarterback to see the middle of the field. You mean think about Russell Wilson. You think about really the one guy that. That was successful at it by far the best was Drew Brees.
- [42:06]
Dan
Yeah, he's just an unreleased. Nobody anticipated like Drew Brees. Like that's a Hall of Fame level anticipation.
- [42:12]
Heath
But.
- [42:12]
Dan
But Kyler doesn't have that in my mind and I think just looking at that system, he's not really. Like you mentioned Adam, it was an okay Kyler. You're running. I don't think it was at like 130 versus 1 verse. 78 attempts to me is a massive difference.
- [42:25]
Jamie
Yeah, but that was it. That that 130 year was an outlier.
- [42:28]
Dan
He sure that's what people kind of were hope in some way hoping for.
- [42:32]
Jamie
Should not have been hoping for that because that's just not hoping for it.
- [42:35]
Dan
But he doesn't hear that.
- [42:36]
Heath
I would have split the difference.
- [42:38]
Dan
Yeah, right. Like if you're. If you're buying him for a ceiling, you're not expecting 78 attempts. I think you're expecting a little bit more.
- [42:44]
Jamie
I definitely agree with that because he had 93 and 1693 attempts in 16 games as a rookie. Then 133 attempts in 16 games. Then 88 attempts in 14 games.
- [42:55]
Dan
Right.
- [42:55]
Jamie
And then 78 attempts in 17 games. You're probably right.
- [42:59]
Dan
I think that's going to stay the same. I don't think that's changing.
- [43:02]
Jamie
All right. All right. Those are our lessons learned. Let's go to our news and notes. The Steelers will sign. Will likely sign either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields for. And then they. You know, their. Their owner Art Rooney said some interesting stuff about George Pickens basically said he's very talented player. He said exactly this very talented player who has room to grow. So you know, it wasn't really very.
- [43:27]
Dan
Interesting, but he did say it.
- [43:29]
Jamie
What's that?
- [43:30]
Dan
I mean you said. You frame that as. He said some very interesting things about.
- [43:33]
Jamie
George now the player in the room to grow, basically. He didn't mean.
- [43:37]
Heath
He didn't everyone know that.
- [43:38]
Jamie
He didn't mean grow as a. As a player necessarily.
- [43:41]
Dan
Yeah. As a person. Yeah.
- [43:43]
Jamie
I think that's pretty interesting to have a press conference and just completely. I think he said something like every team has one or two players or you have to Coach differently. Right.
- [43:50]
Dan
Yeah.
- [43:51]
Jamie
To just say that out loud about George Pickens is I, I think it's quite a call out.
- [43:56]
Heath
Well, I mean look, he's, he's coming up on a contract situation, you know, so entering year four, it's time for him to, you know, play to the level of what he's capable of. Which could be one of the best receivers.
- [44:07]
Dan
Yes.
- [44:07]
Heath
In that second tier, I don't think he's ever going to be one of the elite EL guys, but he could certainly be in that next tier of guys. He's got that upside and that potential. He's gotta, you know, clearly get a little bit more mature and then establish his route tree and, and prove that he can do that. I'm sure he can, but he just hasn't shown it yet. They have so many questions. Offensively they're backfield. Both guys are free agents.
- [44:30]
Dan
Yep.
- [44:30]
Heath
Their quarterback situation is, is non existent right now. Their second receiver is non existent right now. You know, maybe Roman Wilson can become that guy. But so, so many question marks that, you know, could be a lot of fun if they, you know, end up finding the right answers to this team. But clearly the quarterback situation is the big one. And now you have the, the other story of play with Russell Wilson is that he may go to the Raiders.
- [44:53]
Jamie
Yeah. And by the way, how for, for Naji Harris, Jalen Warren I think is a restricted free agent.
- [44:59]
Heath
I'm pretty sure they're both unrestricted, but check that.
- [45:01]
Jamie
Okay. But for, for those guys, the difference between being in this running back class, free agency and last year's run, this free agency class stinks.
- [45:13]
Dan
It's really bad. Specifically at running back. Can I make one quick take? If Russell Wilson goes to the Raiders, Freddie changed out their coaching staff. I think I'm gonna have to not, not buy Brock Bowers in any league next year. I think I'm not going to be able to. I don't think he's going to be able to pay off his ADP at all. I don't think Russell Wilson's a good fit at all for Brock Bowers at all.
- [45:37]
Jamie
Interesting.
- [45:38]
Heath
He's restricted. You're right.
- [45:39]
Jamie
We. Warren's restricted. I, I don't think there's ever Jimmy Graham had a good like touchdown year. Maybe, maybe a couple with Russell Wilson.
- [45:48]
Dan
But, but that's just touchdown.
- [45:49]
Jamie
Never been a good tight end using.
- [45:51]
Dan
The middle of the field like never.
- [45:52]
Jamie
Had a Brock Bowers.
- [45:53]
Dan
I don't like the idea of changing that system out either for Bowers. That, that hurts me. Bowers was in a lot of ways a volume play. They designed the whole offense around him. I guess the hope is they'll just do that again.
- [46:03]
Heath
But did they sign Daryl Bevel or that's just a rumor?
- [46:05]
Jamie
Not yet. Yet?
- [46:06]
Dan
Not yet. No.
- [46:07]
Jamie
Dallas hired Matt Eber Flus as their defensive coordinator. The former Bears coach. The Texans did fire Bobby Slowik. Do we like this? We Slowick was the king of the hill last year.
- [46:17]
Dan
Yeah, I mean, I think we like this just based on the fact that they've regressed so much. But really, I mean, the fact of the matter is Bobby Slope doesn't play offensive line for the Texans and he didn't, you know, he had no control over the injuries on the O line. It just goes to show though, quick take outside of fantasy. Anyone who says Liam Cohen did the wrong thing, I'm against you. And I think he did the right thing. Because if you get a chance at a head coach job, you take it. Because, yes, Bobby Slowik was the hottest candidate on the market and now he's looking for a job.
- [46:47]
Jamie
But also, I'm glad you brought Liam Cohen up because he only has one year as a coordinator. I guess he was the Rams coordinator, but only one year as a play caller. I think in the NFL. In the NFL. So I hope he's not the next Bobby Slowik.
- [47:02]
Dan
I don't think he will because just looking at what he did at Kentucky with Will Levis was phenomenal stuff. He was the only one to ever generate any kind of production out of Levis.
- [47:10]
Jamie
I don't know for a fact. I mean, I think I'm right about that. That only one year as a play caller in the NFL.
- [47:15]
Dan
In the NFL. You are right about that. He came from Kentucky, he was with the Rams. But he was like an assistant.
- [47:20]
Jamie
No, he was an offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2022.
- [47:22]
Dan
But he didn't call plays.
- [47:23]
Jamie
He didn't call the place. He was an assistant with the Rams before that in 2018 through 2020. And then he had two stints in Kentucky 21 and 23. All right, Dalton Kincaid, he's been dealing with two knee injuries this year. A torn PCL in one knee and fluid in the other knee. So these are things that there are probably so many players, we don't know the injuries that they've been dealing with. But keep it in mind. Dalton Kincaid dealing with two injured knees. I also saw a really interesting quote from Bill's guard. Osiris Torrance is talking about the fourth down play and I saw, I Saw someone on Twitter break down the fourth down play. Not the. Not the fourth and one, the fourth and five. Where there was pressure immediately on the cornerback blitz. Was it Jeff Schwartz? I think he was breaking it down.
- [48:10]
Dan
Probably. He does those.
- [48:11]
Jamie
Yeah. And he was saying, like, look at this formation. That. That the. Look at this line, the way that the Chiefs are aligned and how many guys they have guarding on the left side of the field and how many they have guarding on the right side of the field. It should be obvious that the pressure's coming from your right. Their left. Right. It was their left cornerback coming on the. Off the right side of the. Bill's offensive line on the blitz. And the Chiefs were sliding their protection to the left. They got it wrong. Well, here's what Osiris. The Bills. Sorry, The Bills got it wrong. Here's what Osiris Torrance, their offensive lineman, said. We call the protection to slide left. I guess from film they will blitz from where they're not showing it from. From. So they showed it from the right. So we were thinking they were doing it from the left, but they actually brought it from the right this time. It's just. You can say it's an error. I think they just called a better play than we had in offense. Just how the game goes.
- [49:02]
Dan
Yeah, that's. Steve.
- [49:04]
Heath
That's a right guard, right?
- [49:06]
Jamie
I don't know if he's their left guard. Oh, yeah, he's a right guard. Right guard.
- [49:08]
Dan
Yeah.
- [49:09]
Heath
I don't think he blocked anybody in that play too well.
- [49:10]
Dan
That's the thing, Jamie. No one talks about that like the. On the free blitzer. What if you didn't rush. If they didn't rush that free corner. Like, they already had pressure regardless, just with the interior guy. I know what you're talking. I forgot who it was for the Chiefs. I don't think it was Chris Jones, but whoever that was.
- [49:24]
Jamie
Zach Ertz is not retiring and he wants to return to the Commanders. He's a free agent. Matt Laflore says we're gonna end up.
- [49:30]
Dan
Drafting him as a fantasy starter. I can already see it.
- [49:33]
Jamie
Matt LaFleur said he wants to feature the tight end more a few weeks. Not too long ago, I. Yeah, last week we talked about Tucker Kraft. Good sleeper.
- [49:43]
Heath
There are top 20, top 12 tenants.
- [49:44]
Jamie
Yeah, there you go. And the Raven signed offensive coordinator Todd Monk into a contract extension. And I think.
- [49:51]
Dan
Very good news.
- [49:52]
Jamie
That's all the news and notes I got. Okay, so that gives us a little bit of time. Get your sirens ready.
- [50:00]
Dan
If I could find you apparently need to get your siren, get your handcuffs out, folks.
- [50:04]
Heath
By the way, great, great joke by Thomas in the chat.
- [50:08]
Dan
All right, hold on.
- [50:09]
Jamie
What was the joke?
- [50:11]
Heath
You. You mentioned Kincaid's needs were hurt, but he said his hands were healthy.
- [50:15]
Jamie
Well, that's not nice. You know what? I don't stand for that on this show. It's. That's not what we're about, Thomas. It's unbelievable. I'm really surprised. I'm surprised. It's just. We're not. We're above that. All right? Fantasy.
- [50:29]
Dan
We are not above.
- [50:30]
Jamie
We're not above that. This is from Dave Ricard. We have. Have a listener named Dave Ricard.
- [50:35]
Dan
That's awesome.
- [50:36]
Jamie
Let's say there are a couple of us in a league who hate kickers and DSTs, but most of the league wants them to stay in. Then say I play the guy who's with me on this in the playoffs. We agree that neither of us will play kickers or DSTs for our game against each other just to show the rest of the league how much better it is. Is that. Is that collusion?
- [50:57]
Dan
I mean, by definition, this might be collusion. And this might be the first case inclusion that I support. I fully support this. To show them. Teach them a lesson about how stupid. Sorry, I shouldn't be saying this. A lot of people that listen to us like to play defensive kicker. Defensive kickers enjoy. If you want to add some variants and randomness to fantasy, although there already is so much randomness and variance. If you some reason want to add more, enjoy it. I get it. You have one more player to root for. But I am so in favor of this. Making a point. Point. Showing how random it is. And look, you don't play your defense, they don't play their defense. You don't play their kicker, they don't play their kicker. I don't see anything wrong with it.
- [51:32]
Heath
Yeah. Why is this considered collusion?
- [51:34]
Dan
It's not like teams are agreeing together, talking, and they're agreeing to do something, but they're.
- [51:38]
Heath
But they're. They're each giving themselves the potential of a negative.
- [51:42]
Dan
Right?
- [51:43]
Jamie
Or. No, I think it's collusion. I. I guess. I mean, I guess I'd be.
- [51:47]
Heath
It's not impacting the league. Unless you're going to say their point totals may sway playoff standing.
- [51:53]
Jamie
Yeah. In which case they're hurting themselves. I don't know.
- [51:56]
Heath
I mean, I don't see how it's collusion.
- [51:58]
Jamie
I don't think it's collusion. It's. I think it would Bother me a little bit if I were the commissioner and two teams skirted the rules, but if it's not written in the rules, I guess it's okay.
- [52:09]
Dan
So.
- [52:09]
Heath
Right. The rule would have to say you have to play complete lineup.
- [52:12]
Jamie
Yeah. Exactly.
- [52:13]
Dan
Where is that ever written in any rules? I've never seen that.
- [52:16]
Heath
Well, like in, in hourlies on cbs, this, you have to say minimal lineup starters.
- [52:23]
Jamie
Yes.
- [52:24]
Heath
So you can't, you can't not have. If it's, if this setting is, is, Is designated. You can't not pull defense or kicker out of your lineup.
- [52:35]
Jamie
I also, I, I.
- [52:37]
Heath
It's hard to do a dstl. You could obviously take a kicker that's not an active kicker and put him in your lineup and just take zeros, but you can't do it with the.
- [52:44]
Jamie
ST. Oh, you could start the Colts DST in week 17. That's basically the thing. I, I think bleepers one of the said. Of course. I think was a really ridiculous thing to say, but he said that I miss dad. You just want to insert.
- [53:01]
Dan
Adam's taking advantage of the fact that I'm on mute because there's work being done in the back and I can't defend myself.
- [53:05]
Jamie
Insert some randomness in you with kickers and DSTs. Like, let's not act like the other positions are so predictable. We get everything right.
- [53:12]
Dan
Come on, Adam. Look at you. Don't even. Are you really trying to argue that kicker is not more random than. Than the other positions? Please. Please.
- [53:20]
Jamie
Yeah, I mean, I, I don't know. I haven't done the research, but it's a bad take. No.
- [53:24]
Dan
This might be your worst fantasy take ever. You're saying kicker doesn't have more variants than other positions?
- [53:28]
Jamie
I have no idea. I have no idea.
- [53:30]
Dan
You have no idea. Well, then just go look it up after the show, and then you're going to be surprised to see how wrong you are.
- [53:35]
Jamie
How am I supposed to look that up?
- [53:37]
Dan
By looking at each year where we project the ADP for kickers and who actually finishes.
- [53:41]
Jamie
Oh, my God. The ADP for kickers. We don't project the ADP for kickers. Kickers.
- [53:44]
Dan
Whatever. Not adp. Whatever. Whoever. Your ranking kickers. They don't finish according to rank.
- [53:50]
Jamie
Yeah, neither do the. Neither do the running backs. Oh, yeah.
- [53:53]
Dan
A lot of the guys at the top do. Jamar Chase.
- [53:55]
Jamie
Yeah, I'm sure a lot of the kickers.
- [53:57]
Dan
Oh, my God, No.
- [53:57]
Jamie
Okay, first of all, I wasn't data.
- [54:00]
Dan
And data points to prove that I.
- [54:01]
Jamie
Was right on this.
- [54:02]
Dan
I wasn't find that person.
- [54:03]
Jamie
I wasn't thinking of it from a draft perspective. I was thinking of it from the whole point. I was thinking of it. Go on mute, dude. I was.
- [54:11]
Heath
You know what I've never noticed before? Dan's got kind of like dinosaur arms.
- [54:16]
Jamie
Does. Does he? No.
- [54:17]
Dan
They are a little short. Are they short?
- [54:19]
Jamie
No, they're not. Don't let them get in your head. Listen, I wasn't thinking of it from a draft perspective. Perspective. I was thinking of picking up a streamer, you know, and. And like, with stream tight ends. Oh, my gosh. Streaming. Streaming tight ends is no different than streaming kickers.
- [54:33]
Heath
I know.
- [54:33]
Dan
It's not about streaming, Adam. First of all, I'd probably argue back on that and push back a little. But it's not about. But you might be right on that. It's not about streaming. It's about the point where, like, if you rank the kickers 1 through 12 preseason, it never finishes anywhere close to that.
- [54:45]
Jamie
All right, I don't think. We don't put. We don't put 1/50 of the amount of time researching how to rank kickers as we do the other positions.
- [54:54]
Heath
Hey, hey.
- [54:56]
Dan
Random Adam. That's why. Because you don't. You don't do it because it's random.
- [55:00]
Jamie
That might be true.
- [55:00]
Dan
That's.
- [55:01]
Jamie
That's why we drafted by that.
- [55:03]
Heath
That's why we drafted that.
- [55:05]
Dan
That.
- [55:05]
Jamie
But I'm saying. Just picking the award.
- [55:06]
Heath
Say differently.
- [55:08]
Jamie
All right? I'm moving on here from Scuba Steve. I am the champ. Why is it that Dan just brings out all these takes in me? I just. He just brings something out at me. Scuba Steve needs our help. I. I feel like. I know this was in my notes. I. He says I never read it, but I. I never read it with Dan, at least. All right, so he needs a league punishment for the loser. He needs an epic punishment. He wants to bring pain to the loser on draft day, and I got the best one. Make him want draft day to be over more than anything in the world. So he's thinking about wearing. Making the loser wear a wet itch sweater with giant Mickey cartoon hands sewn to it so he can't take them off when he's eating, when he's trying. Trying to make his draft picks anything like that. What? You say you have something better?
- [56:01]
Dan
No. Never mind. I misheard this. I was thinking of draft punishment. I didn't know draft day.
- [56:05]
Jamie
It has to be draft day. How do we make draft day horrible for. And they have to draft in a public place, by the way.
- [56:12]
Heath
So you want this person to be in physical pain?
- [56:15]
Dan
Any kind of pain I think is.
- [56:17]
Jamie
Is humiliation.
- [56:19]
Heath
Well, like humiliation is different. But like this, this is like, like actual paint.
- [56:23]
Jamie
Yeah. I don't know. Yeah, yeah.
- [56:24]
Dan
Not like, I think at some point you just walk up behind him and you just slime him. Like old Nickelodeon. Just slime. And he has to sit in like the wet slime for the whole draft. That's a start.
- [56:34]
Jamie
25Th anniversary of slime time Live. By the way, this, this week.
- [56:37]
Dan
Wow.
- [56:38]
Jamie
Past week.
- [56:38]
Heath
I saw your brother posted something on.
- [56:40]
Dan
Some social media about 25th anniversary of slime time ride. The most definitive proof we have that Adam is not his parents favorite child.
- [56:51]
Jamie
Well, would be 20. What will be 20, 34 or something will be the 25th anniversary of me on fantasy football today.
- [56:59]
Dan
Okay, that's. I don't think your parents are counting down that one.
- [57:01]
Jamie
Like the slime 33, I think. Yeah. I don't know. I don't. I mean, I don't do anything like this, but having him wear horrible clothes in public is some stuff on him. It's kind of funny.
- [57:14]
Heath
I mean, if it's like physical pain, like you can, can you can probably, if you're going somewhere, like, make him eat things that are just completely disgusting.
- [57:24]
Dan
True, true.
- [57:25]
Jamie
And would you, would you laugh at someone who, who wore rollerblades into a restaurant?
- [57:30]
Dan
Would you laugh at them?
- [57:33]
Jamie
Probably.
- [57:33]
Heath
Like, look at that guy.
- [57:34]
Jamie
Yeah, I haven't seen that. Knee pads, like make it wear.
- [57:37]
Dan
Oh, yes. With the knee pads.
- [57:38]
Jamie
Knee pads, elbow pads. A helmet.
- [57:39]
Dan
Yes.
- [57:40]
Jamie
Yeah, I think that that's a momentary laughter thing.
- [57:43]
Heath
Like, like, I think if you're like in a public place, like you should if, if you're at a restaurant or something, like, make him stand on the table and like do like a monologue every.
- [57:53]
Dan
Yeah, make him just like randomly blurt out. What was that? Housman's Auto?
- [58:00]
Heath
Like, like come up with like some, some random monologues from you. Like TV shows or, or movies that people know or maybe just.
- [58:09]
Jamie
Yeah, I agree off the cuff, you.
- [58:11]
Heath
Know, and like they got to stand on the table and just like recite it so he's got it.
- [58:14]
Jamie
Like, everyone pick one monologue for. And I have to go, but pick one monologue for, for this person. How about like Coffees for Losers from.
- [58:27]
Heath
Glenn Garrett Glengarrigan Ross?
- [58:30]
Jamie
Okay, that's pretty old school. It's a horrible movie.
- [58:32]
Dan
By the way. You forget about me. What's that movie that everybody likes? Terrible. Yeah, whatever. The final monologue is there?
- [58:41]
Jamie
I think Dorothy Boyd. Thank you. I think that the Jerry Maguire monologue.
- [58:45]
Dan
Yeah.
- [58:45]
Heath
Something like you got to stand on a table every round and do a monologue.
- [58:48]
Jamie
All right. Thank you. I'm sorry, I have to run. FFT Express with Dan and Jamie is coming up. They're going to talk about the top 12 tight ends. We will talk to you tomorrow with Bounce back players for 2025. See you later.
- [59:08]
F
Paramount podcast casts Miami Metro catches killers and they say it takes a village to race one.
- [59:16]
Dan
If anyone knows how powerful urges can be, it's me.
- [59:18]
F
Catch Dexter Morgan in a new serial killer origin story. Hunger inside of you.
- [59:23]
Dan
It needs a master.
- [59:24]
F
Featuring Patrick Gibson, Christian Slater. Special guest star, Sarah Michelle Geller. With Patrick Densy and Michael C. Hall as Dexter's inner voice. I wasn't born a killer. I was made Dexter original sin new series now streaming on the Paramount plus with Showtime plan. Go to paramountplus.com to try it. Free terms apply.