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2025 NFL Draft Wide Receiver Prospects Part 2: Jayden Higgins, Elic Ayomanor, Xavier Restrepo, & More! (04/18 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)
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- [00:01]
Heath Cummings
Location, the lab.
- [00:02]
Quentin
Quentin only has 24 hours to sell his car.
- [00:05]
Heath Cummings
Is that even possible?
- [00:06]
Derek Brown
He goes to Carvana.com.
- [00:08]
Unknown
What is this, a movie trailer?
- [00:10]
Heath Cummings
He ignores the doubters, enters his license plate.
- [00:14]
Derek Brown
Wow, that's a great offer. The car is sold.
- [00:17]
Heath Cummings
But will Carvana pick it up in time for it?
- [00:19]
Unknown
They'll literally pick it up tomorrow morning. Done with the dramatics.
- [00:23]
Heath Cummings
Car selling in record time.
- [00:26]
Unknown
Save your time. Go to Carvana.com and sell your car today. Pickup fees may apply. I've never felt like this before. It's like you just get me. I feel like my true self with you. Does that sound crazy? And it doesn't hurt that you're gorgeous. Okay, that's it. I'm taking you home with me. I mean, you can't find shoes this good just anywhere. Find a shoe for every you from brands you love like Birkenstock, Nike, Adidas and more at your DSW store or dsw.com foreign.
- [01:06]
Heath Cummings
Welcome to Fantasy football today, Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings and it is time for the rookie wide receiver preview part 2. We've got wide receiver 7 through 12 in the consensus rankings today. And we've got Derek Brown from fantasy Pros here to break it all down with us.
- [01:26]
Derek Brown
Heath, how you doing, man? It's a good Friday to be here. We're right up at the precipice of the NFL draft. It's peeking over the horizon. The. The silhouette is becoming more formed. So it's not just a. It's. It's maybe somewhere off in the distance. It's actually here, dude.
- [01:41]
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
- [01:42]
Derek Brown
One day closer every single day. I love it.
- [01:45]
Heath Cummings
What all have you guys been doing in terms of draft prep content and where can people find it?
- [01:50]
Derek Brown
Oh, I've been diving into the weeds, getting close, like deeper and deeper into this class. Everything, of course, is@fantasypros.com right? We've had a ton of mock drafts drop on the YouTube space. Seth Wilcock and I are rocking it every single week for the NFL draft show for fantasy pros. I've got all my positional primers and what I'm still my labor of love. That will be live Wednesday before the draft as my top 100 skill players. So quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight ends will all be written up and live on the site.
- [02:22]
Heath Cummings
Awesome. Awesome stuff, guys. Go check that out. On today's show, we will talk about Jaden Higgins, Jalen Noel Manor. I may have got that right. Or Derek may correct me later. Jalen Royals, Jack Besh and Xavier Restrepo. We need to mention one name that we're not going to talk about on today's show, and that is Isaiah Bond. He wasn't on the 1 through 6 show. He's not going to be on the 7 through 12 show. He is facing sexual assault allegations. He has countersued and claims none of those are true. We're just going to have to see how the legal process plays out and how NFL teams react to this news. But again, not something we're going to talk about on this. We will talk about those other six wide receivers, but we always start with three questions for our guest. And Derek, I like to ask this of people that are coming on to talk about rookies. What is the most important thing to you when it comes to rookie wide receiver evaluation?
- [03:19]
Derek Brown
There's so much to dice through as far as, like with wide receivers and you know, what we can deem important. I think my biggest thing is I could tell you analytics, I could tell you the film. I mean, my biggest thing is just trying to marry the two. And I know that's not picking out just one thing, but really in my process, it's trying to bring those two together and paint the most complete picture of a player's skill sets and what they can do and the areas that they have to improve and using data and the film to do so.
- [03:51]
Heath Cummings
Excellent. I. I think that's the best way to do it. Like, if you're leaning too much on one or the other, you're going to miss some things. You've got to have the entire picture. Now I talked about the wide receiver 7 through 12 that we're going to talk about like we did with Matt Waldman and the running backs. I want to give Derek a chance to talk about a couple of his guys. And so I asked him, like, who are your favorite wide receivers that are not ranked one through 12? I've got a couple here. So question number two. What's your elevator pitch for Elijah Badger?
- [04:17]
Derek Brown
Well, maybe I'll start off with this with Spitting Fire here. Elijah Badger is actually inside my top 12, so I have him at wide receiver 10. Very, very enamored with his skill set. I don't think he's getting talked about near enough in the process. And for a player that we have seen over multiple collegiate seasons operate extremely well in very different roles. If you look at Arizona State 2022-2023, this is a guy that just ate up defenses in the underneath. Basically it was put the ball in his hands and let him just go. Absolutely. Just bully people, he was third and seventh in those years and missed tackles fours 13th in 2023 in Yak per reception. So proof of concept as an underneath threat. Just get the ball in his hands and the guy could possibly debo some people. And then for final season he goes to Florida and they said, well, you're really, really good at that, but instead we're going to use you in a totally different role. And he becomes their field stretcher. And he was the downfield threat adot bumped UP was the 8th highest amongst FBS wide receivers, least 50 targets. And he crushed in that role as well. Heath, I mean he was 14th in yards per out run, top 15 and every basically everything you look at as far as efficiency versus man coverage. And it all goes points back to his film too. Like, good route runner, strong at the catch point, very strong throughout his routes. Like you're not pushing him off his routes. And I think if the medicals check out for Elijah Badger and he did have a pretty significant back injury now, again, diving through college injury reporting is always its own adventure in itself, right? But the back injury in 2023, if the medicals come through, I think we're going to hear Badger's name called. He's going to be one of those guys that on late day two, early day three gets his name called and everybody's like looking up on their favorite site and saying, this guy's like, that's supposedly going to be outside the top 200 players. Like, why is his name called? But he's, he's very talented.
- [06:13]
Heath Cummings
Excellent, excellent stuff. Put him down in your consideration for maybe round three of your rookie dress. And everybody's gonna be like, why'd you use your third round pick on him? And then they're gonna what is your elevator pitch for Tory Horton?
- [06:26]
Derek Brown
Very talented, physical ex wide receiver type, smaller school prospect, but numerous years. And unfortunately his. His final collegiate season was only six games because it was limited due to a knee injury, but popped in the efficiency matrix. 3.4 yards per route run previous years. He's checking a lot of boxes, whether it's 20, 23, 16th and miss tackles, force 2022. He was 22nd in yards per out run. And this is a large sample size against all FBS and FCS wide receivers. At least 50 targets. So pretty large sample there. And Tori Horton just jumps off the page. But big galloping X wide receiver, good through contact, strong at the catch point like the guy that I kept going back to. And this is probably the high end of his range of outcomes. Because probably draft capital is going to be third, maybe fourth round for him, depending. But as a guy that I think if you put him on the perimeter, ask him to win, ask him to stretch the field sometimes he reminded me a lot of like a Michael Gallup, Marvin Jones where I won't be surprised. Like I'm not projecting. This is a player in future seasons we're going to get 1200 receiving yards, 10 plus touchdowns. But if he walks away with a few seasons of 900 plus 7 to 8 scores, that's going to be good enough for us in fantasy.
- [07:45]
Heath Cummings
Awesome, awesome stuff. Let's take a short break and then we will jump into wide receiver 7 through 12, the consensus rookie wide receiver rankings.
- [07:54]
Quentin
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- [08:22]
Heath Cummings
Streaming on Paramount Plus. Everyone who comes into this clinic is a mystery.
- [08:27]
Unknown
We don't know what we're looking for.
- [08:29]
Heath Cummings
Their bodies are the scene of the crime. No. Symptoms and history are clues.
- [08:33]
Unknown
You saved her life.
- [08:35]
Heath Cummings
We're doctors and we're detectives. I kind of love it if I'm being honest. Solve the puzzle, save the patient. Morris Chestnut is Watson now streaming on Paramount plus and new episodes Sundays on CBS. Man, if you're watching on YouTube and you've not watched all of 1923 yet, get that done. That's a fantastic series. I, I love. Basically everything in that universe in 1944 cannot get here soon enough. But if what's here right now is wide receiver 7 through 12 in the consensus rankings, we're going to start with Jaden Higgins out of Iowa State. And the way we'll run through this, Derek, because I, I'm going to give you the the open floor, give your eval on the player and particularly whether you're higher or lower than what the ranking says at wide receiver seven. And then I got a couple questions for you as well.
- [09:26]
Derek Brown
Oh, absolutely. Heath, let's dive into it, man. I mean, Jaden Higgins, let's just kick this off. He's wide receiver seven in the consensus. He's my wide receiver five. Okay. In my rankings I have him over some notable names of Matthew golden being one of those guys. And this just comes down to I have a, I wouldn't be surprised if he snuck into the first round of the NFL draft. I think he's probably more appropriately going in the second round. And I have a high second round grade on him and a guy that I don't think we've seen yet the full potential of his game. I mean is he an X wide receiver? Yes. Is he physical and can he get open on in breaking out breaking routes? I mean my, my comp for him, my working comp for him is I think he's developmental Michael Thomas, like I want to see him go to Denver because if you can use this guy and it's not to say that he cannot win from the boundary. So I don't want people to get it twisted with how I'm framing his skill set. But you put him into a power slot role, you put him into a 50, 50 outside and inside type of role. I think this guy is going to command a high end target share from day one. Now there are some drawbacks to his game. He checks a lot of boxes both analytically and on the film. I mean 27th and 16th in yards per route run. And this is while playing alongside and we also have to get context with this with guys that, for all the LSU guys in the past, Texas guys. But these Iowa State dudes, they're for real this year and both of these guys are extremely talented. So playing alongside Jalen Noel last year definitely needs to get brought up in the context of his numbers. But for a player that I think again you can put him out on the boundary, he does and he, he went out and he tested fantastically at the combine, better than I even thought he was going to do. Like film, I probably put like a 4 or 5 speed on him now he goes out, he jumps well, runs in the four fours. I, I think that if he would have gone, and I'll say this, if he would have gone to an SEC school, if he would have gone to a more high profile school with his testing with his metrics, I think this guy would be getting first round buzz and I think people would be putting more respect on his name as a player that really I, I really like and I and continue to pound the table for and he's part of the narrative that I believe in that I think this wide receiver class is better than people give it credit for.
- [11:48]
Heath Cummings
So I think one interesting thing, you talk about that first round draft capital, we talk about the size at 6, 4, 2 15, basically. I think a lot of people see that and think, man, he sounds kind of like Ted McMillan. And you look at the consensus rankings and there's this wide gap between Tet and Higgins worth noting. I look at Matt Waldman's guide and he's got them back to back. So I guess for you, what's the biggest thing that separates these two bigger wide receivers?
- [12:15]
Derek Brown
I think it's twofold for me. I think Tet has a very, very strong profile as far as what he can do after the catch. You see, you see that? I mean, immediately it jumps off tape. If you compare the two players, just stick them side by side. We're talking about Higgins. He's not a giant yak threat. Like, I'm not saying that he can't produce it, but that's where the divide really comes in for him versus Tet, where Tet collegiate career 5.5 yards after the catch per reception, Higgins is down at 4.5. And it also shows up in his ability to force missed tackles. Like over the last two years, Jaden Higgins only has 25 missed tackles. Force, which is not a bad number, especially for an ex receiver. We can get into the quarterback play at Iowa State, but when you compare that to Tet. Tedron McMillan, like again, going back to it, Jaden Higgins 25 missed tackles forced over the last two years. Tedro McMillan forced more missed tackles in just 2024 alone than Jaden Higgins did over those final two seasons. And then it comes down to getting back to again. Like if you put these guys on the perimeter, Ted has an incredibly impressive resume versus man and press where he's just been battle tested in that X receiver role to be the alpha to be on the outside. Like over the last two years, Ted has accrued the third and 10th most man coverage targets amongst all FBS wide receivers and produce top 10 yards per route run figures. In both of those seasons where Higgins has been a little bit more up and down like he's shown that can he do it? Well, sure. Like in 20 in this last season he was 20th in yards per route run versus man coverage. But I think there's still something as far as in Higgins game as far as the release packet package and consistently playing to his size and his athleticism when pressed off the line that he's got to improve. Whereas Ted, I think we've got more proof of concept than him winning in those ways.
- [14:16]
Heath Cummings
So I know you said you've got him at wide receiver 5. He's wide receiver in the consensus range before we get to this range of wide receivers, how many running backs do you think should probably be off the board in the, in the, in a rookie draft?
- [14:30]
Derek Brown
I've got, let me see here. I've got four guys ahead of Jaden Higgins right now. I've got Ashton Genty, Caleb Johnson, Travion Henderson and Amari on Hampton. It's really, it's that bucket of guys that we think are going to either go in the first round or go at the top of the second round. And Caleb's the one guy where maybe he falls back, maybe he goes in round three. But I'm kind of projecting the, this tiny little swath of running backs that I have above Jaden Higgins, as those are the guys that maybe get better draft capital or similar draft capital with really, really strong profiles to Jaden Higgins.
- [15:04]
Heath Cummings
So I, I looking at a lot of the rookie mocks, I think you see Higgins early in round two a lot of times, and you, you see Tet at that 1 3, 14 range a lot of times. So I think a decision a lot of fantasy managers might be making and draft capital could change the math on this, but they might be looking at, you know, I need a running back and I need a wide receiver. So I can either go tet with the, the 34 pick and then take RB 7 or 8 in this class early in round two, or I can take Hampton or Henderson or whichever those guys you prefer and then take Higgins early in round two. Which of those combinations sounds better to you right now?
- [15:48]
Derek Brown
Right now, with what we're projecting, I would do the RB and then take Jaden Higgins only because I, I feel better and push back against. If you feel different, Heath. But like, I feel better about Jaden Higgins projected projected draft capital than, I mean, right now with the running backs, we're all wondering what that looks like, what we're projecting. Like, I think the only two guys that we feel pretty freaking good about going in the, in the first round or at least in the top, say 40 picks are Amarion and Ash and Genti. And after those guys, it's like what happens in the NFL draft is that second tier of D tackles, corners, offensive linemen, defensive edge guys, is that going to push the running back position down where we don't get two, three guys going in the second round, maybe we get one, only one, and the rest of them get pushed to day three or, excuse me, round three and round four, the NFL draft. And I think that's going to be one of the determining factors of what Shifts people's rankings is what happens in the second round. How many of those running backs go in the second round versus NFL teams saying, I mean why do I got to draft a guy in the second round when I can pair two guys together in the fourth round and the fifth round and we complete our backfield that way. So I think the draft capital on the the third tier or how ever people are dicing it up but basically kind of RB 5 to 10, what does that look like as far as draft capital and what does that do for the wide receivers?
- [17:15]
Heath Cummings
I think that was all really well said. The only thing I would say is I think it seems like there's a pretty good consensus that both Genti and Hampton Hampton are worthy of a first round grade. I'm really getting the feeling that we're getting the Bo Nick special from Sean Payton and that Henderson, whether Hampton's there or not, is going to be a Denver Bronco just because he fits what Sean Pay wants out of his running backs. So much so I wouldn't. I think it's possible we get three running backs in round one and then you're right. What happens after that gets really, really. How do people view Caleb Johnson vs. Quin, Sean Judkins vs. Scaboo vs. Devin Neal? Like that's going to be really interesting. But that's enough on Jaden Higgins. We'll move to wide receiver 8 and honestly it's kind of fun because it's his teammate. It's Jaylen Noel, Iowa State. What's your eval on him?
- [18:00]
Derek Brown
I have loved this kid ever since I scouted him before we went to the Senior bowl and I was pounding the table for him in late January. Like he just, he is, he's a freaking stud, man. I got at watching his tape and then you see him go to Mobile and I think being at Senior bowl boots on the grounds, there's definitely merit there. And he just absolutely crushed it. Like it put him into the guys that, that got some more positive energy and buzz coming out of and he's crushed every part of the process. He's like, it's Senior bowl, nobody could guard him. He played on the outside, played on the inside, got pressed, got deep. Nobody could touch him. He just kept getting open at will. And then he goes to the combine and he crushed every. And he did almost everything. Did almost everything. He jumps at the gym, he runs a 4, 3, 9 and it's like, I mean people talk about the size. Oh, he's 5 10. Does it really matter? Heath? When he's jumping to 41 inches and he's got the vert that's going to put him in the rarefied air of maybe a six foot receiver with only a decent vert. Like that's the catch radius that we're talking about for Jalen Null. So I don't care about the size. I think he is a player that yes, he was locked into the slot a lot at Iowa State, 72% slot usage. But I truly think this is a guy that can play 50, 50 inside, outside. If you wanted to put him to the boundary that I think he can win out there and I think that's the big differentiator between him and some of these other slot guys. Like Jalen all has the proof of concept that he can win on the outside. He's an impressive route runner and he plays bigger than his size. It's not just the testing stuff. I love it when we see these guys that the testing, you see it show up consistently on their film. Like with the body control. This dude skying into crowded are muddied catch points and coming down with the ball with two guys in his face. And I've seen some evaluations and I'm not, you know, again trying to toss shade and anything but one of the things that I've seen discussed about Jaylen all and I think it's just a bad narrative because he was a slot wide receiver is that and I think some of this, he debunked it a little bit with the, the testing and the speed at the combine. But the fact that people, some people talk about it that he can't get deep and I'm like what were you looking at? Like this guy went out last year and he was 23rd in the nation in deep targets. And that's not the, the big eye popping thing that I want to bring up here. But he was second, second in all FBS wide receivers in deep receiving yards. His ADOT jumped from 7.7 to 12.2. So there is justified verticality in his game that we can latch on to. And I, I just think this is if you want to latch onto the guy that jumps out of this class that we're looking back in hindsight in two to three years from now we're like why didn't we put more respect on this guy? He is a high end. Two low end, maybe wide receiver one in an NFL offense. I just absolutely emphatically love Jalen Noel.
- [21:01]
Heath Cummings
That's awesome stuff. And so you're the perfect guy to make this next Case because when I, when I look at that like 5, 10, 5 11, blazing speed, 190, 195 pounds, it's like, man, that sounds a lot like Matthew Golden. But again, there's a pretty good gap in the consensus rankings between these two wide receivers. And in Noel's favor, he was much more productive than golden was. What. Is there anything that separates these two?
- [21:24]
Derek Brown
I, I mean, I, I again, going back to my rankings, I have Jaylen Noel at wide receiver four and I have Matthew golden at wide receiver six. Okay, so it's. This is not me hating on Matthew golden but the differentiator in. And there's two guys in this class. Matthew Golden's one of them and Luther Burden is the other one. And I know you have already discussed him on previous episodes, but I think Jaylen all is categorically better than both of those players and golden specifically. Jalen all proved that. That he's a better after the catch player. Both physicality and I think we can say it's a wash with route running. Both of these guys are extremely good at route running and people will say golden play on the outside. Noel can do that. We've already discussed that. But I think it's also, it's the play strength at the catch point that I think is the big differentiator for the two of them. Whereas golden has a 40 contested catch rate in two of the last three seasons and you have null. That is proven over 50 contested catch rate. And it's all over his film that he is a, he's a myball winner. I don't care about the size. When that dude goes up for above the rim kind of targets, he's coming down with it.
- [22:33]
Heath Cummings
What. So, you know, I think it's interesting because everybody's kind of already talking about golden is because he ran so fast and there was even a little bit beforehand that he was going to sneak into round one. What type of draft capital right now are you expecting for no second round?
- [22:47]
Derek Brown
Somewhere in the second round, I think, honestly I, I'm not going to be surprised if a team loves him just as much as I do and we see him go at the top of the second round. That won't. That won't shock me at all.
- [23:01]
Heath Cummings
Excellent. Excellent stuff. Let's move on to wide receiver nine. It is Ellic IO Manor out of Stanford. What's your evil on him?
- [23:13]
Derek Brown
I mean, again, another guy that and everybody. The first thing that people talk about with Ellic is what he did to Travis Hunter and destroyed him when he faced him in coverage. So I'm not going to belabor that too much. I mean really with Alec, you see a guy that can play X, he can. He was really asked over the last two seasons to. To stretch the field. I mean for a player that we're looking at top 60amongst FPS wide receivers and a dot 14.1, 14.2 quarterback play wasn't great over the last two years. So I think that gives some context. But very detailed route runner, he can win at the catch point and adds a lot of nuance to his routes. And I think he's a. He's. I'm not going to say he's a really exactly clean projection but you know what you're getting with him. A guy that can be physical, a guy that can win on the outside, can play X, can get deep. There's some drawbacks to his game. Like I think he's got some footwork issues to clean up. He definitely telegraphs his routes at the top of his stem at times. We could talk about the drop rate which was 8.7% over the last two seasons. So as a player that I like him, I don't love him as maybe some other people in the space and where they're ranking him. I currently have him at wide receiver 8 heath.
- [24:29]
Heath Cummings
So I think it's interesting because you. You hit on it there. I've seen a wide range of opinions on this guy. We've got people who think he's a top six wide receiver maybe and we got people who aren't sure that He's a top 18 wide receiver. Is there anything specifically about his game or his stats that make him so polarizing?
- [24:48]
Derek Brown
I think it comes back to how we open this show and discussing people's process. I think you're going to see film grinders and people that were film is the the onus of how they're evaluating prospects. They are probably going to be higher on ELIC than the analytics community. Like people running models are probably going to be lower on him because if you just look at the per route efficiency over the last years, like Heath, are you getting super excited for a player that amongst all FBS wide receivers at least 50 targets was 137th and 78th in yards per out run over the last two years? No, but if you turn on the film he's a better player. And we also have to give context to numbers with quarterback play and maybe some yards left on the field. So I think that's the biggest thing. And also kind of how much of what People weigh drops as far as when they're looking at wide receiver prospects. So a player that I, I think I'm kind of in line with consensus. Like where's he at in the consensus again?
- [25:44]
Heath Cummings
He's nine.
- [25:44]
Derek Brown
So you're okay? I'm hand holding basically with consensus then.
- [25:48]
Heath Cummings
So he is the youngest wide receiver we're going to talk about today. He's still just 21 years old. Does that earn him a bonus in your eyes? And how do you evaluate 21 year olds versus 23 or 24 year olds?
- [26:04]
Derek Brown
It doesn't. Now I will say my process has kind of evolved. I think we all used to be like heavy into breakout ages and dominant ratings and blah, blah, blah. I think two things have changed the flavor of that Kool Aid for me over the last few years. One, we are still dealing with the, the tail end, the tailwinds of the pandemic and guys staying in, in college because of that transfers. The other part of this is nil is changing the flavor of the coffee here. Like guys staying in in college longer and coming out as older prospects. Now, can we still point to, you know, the common sense which it does bear out in the analytics of if you're good when you're younger, then obviously then you're more talented, you earn more volume, things like that. It's just, it's just common sense. So I'm not going to weigh him that much more heavily because he is 21 versus some guys that are 23, 24. Part of this is just the changing landscape of college football, but also too heath, like we always discuss in Dynasty too, wide receivers have an incredibly long shelf life. If you're good, then we're saying, okay, you're probably good for six to eight years. So do I really care if you're 21 versus being 23? If you're good for six to eight years, if you're good, you're good and if you're not, you're not. That's really what it comes down to.
- [27:26]
Heath Cummings
Me, yeah, I, I don't care so much about 21 versus 23. Yeah, it bothers me more if the 23 year old wasn't really good until he turned 22 or 23, somebody's good as a year old. That, that is a big difference in terms of being a year or two older than most of the guys you were playing against. Let's take our second break. Then we will get to wide receiver 10 through 12 in the consensus rookie rankings.
- [27:52]
Ashley Nicole Moss
What's up, hoop fans? I'm Ashley Nicole Moss and I'm bringing you Triple Threat, your weekly courtside pass to the most interesting moments and conversations in the NBA. From clutch performances to the stories shaping the game on and off the court, Triple Threat has you covered. With it all culture, drama and social media buzz. We're locked in. Just like you're locked in. Watch weekly on CBS Sports Network at 1:00pm Eastern or on the CBS Sports YouTube channel as we break it all down fast and fresh. This is Triple Threat, where basketball meets culture.
- [28:34]
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- [29:04]
Heath Cummings
At wide receiver 10, we've got another smaller school guy. It's Jalen Royals of Utah State. Derek, what do you think about this guy?
- [29:11]
Derek Brown
I love Jalen Royals. He's another guy that was a love lister for me as soon as I started breaking down his tape to the Senior bowl and just fascinating story, collegiate path and stuff. As a guy that came out as a no star prospect, went to Georgia Military Academy, transfers to Utah State, he's ripping it up in his final season in college. My wide receiver 11 in my ranks currently. That's that's if you're including Travis Hunter, if we're not including Travis Hunter, he is my wide receiver 10. So again the guy that I'm, I'm hand holding with consensus so final collegiate season, I mean this guy was just putting up video game numbers across his final four collegiate games. He was averaging 166.5 receiving yards per game. And everybody's big question about Jalen Royals, which I, I understand it is the player that in his final year that ranked 30th in yards per route run against all FCS and FBS guys with 50 targets. Is he that good? Was it just the lower level of competition that allowed him to excel? I think he is really that good. And part of what was proof of concept for that for me was again going to Mobile and seeing him against better competition consistently that week. And another point of context for people that in that final season in college, his season was cut short with a foot injury and seeing him in Mobile he was not 100%. Now I want to be very clear when I mention this. It was not the foot injury that was keeping him or holding him back. It was a soft tissue injury. But with Jalen Royals he still went out there and competed. And he not only competed, he won consistently in the one on ones and doing that when he's less than 100 and you could tell that he wasn't if you watch the film, just even his highlight cut ups. And I'm not asking everybody to go dive into like seven games all 22 like I'm doing on a weekly basis for players, but if you even go watch the highlights and then you turn on anything from the senior ball, you're like where's the speed? Where's this blazing speed, this run after the catch ability that really just shines For Jalen Royals, you didn't see it. But his ability to win despite being less than 100% being dinged up. He proved in that forum against better competition that he could win consistently while less than while having less tools in the belt. From raw attributes of his speed off the line. He won with the finer points of wide receiver play and that's releases. That's his route running. And he consistently won on end breakers. He won up the seam at the Senior Bowl. So a player that I think we've already seen proof of concept that he is better than just mossing guys in D2, D3 and FCS level. I think he's the real deal and he proved that in Mobile for me and a player that I'm very. He's one of the guys. I'm very curious where he goes in the NFL draft. I've seen him in the second round in some mocks. I think that's a little bit rich considering the the context of this draft class. I would be surprised because again he hasn't been able to because of the health. Even when he went out to the combine, I talked to him at the combine. He still wasn't 100% so he didn't do all the testing. And even though the fact that he ran a 44 at the combine, I'm taking that with a grain of salt because I think fully healthy, maybe he would have run better than that and generated more buzz in the process than his body was allowing him to. So I think he probably goes in round three of the NFL draft, Heath, and that's fine. I mean then we're talking about landing spot and what is. What does it look like as far as target competition around him and to.
- [32:51]
Heath Cummings
That point he played in the Mountain West. He played a couple of games. He played again a game against a Big Ten school in USC, that sounds strange to say. And he had six catches for 47 yards. He played against a Big 12 school in Utah, that sounds strange to say. And he had seven catches or four catches for 44 yards. Now he also had 211 yards against Boise State. So there was a pretty big split between his conference production and his non conference, especially Power 5 production. So those, those, there's a reason those questions come in, but it's good to hear that you saw him against that top competition and he looked like he belonged. Are we at this point now at wide receiver 10 and I think you said you had Royals at 11. Are we firmly in day three territory or and round three territory of rookie dress now?
- [33:45]
Derek Brown
I think we are looking at these guys like I've got Jalen Royals again, where I have him in my ranks. I've got him as my 28th overall player on my board right now in my rankings on fantasy pros.
- [33:59]
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
- [33:59]
Derek Brown
So yeah, I think even with draft capital, that's probably where he's going to be. He's probably going to be like, because some of these running backs, if they get a really good spot and things like that, like maybe a tight end or two could pop it. So I think you're looking at early round three in rookie drafts.
- [34:15]
Heath Cummings
Let's get to wide receiver 11. It's Jack Bash. And if you have just kind of tried, not really read a lot, but you've just kind of followed along on social media. Yeah, you've definitely seen this name because he has a lot of very enthusiastic fans of his game. Yeah.
- [34:33]
Derek Brown
And for good reason, man. I mean his story again, we go back to, you know, just diving through not only these players and their skills and where they've gone, their collegiate story as players, but all the off the field stuff is it's tough for Jack Besh. And I always say, like you want to talk about a guy that, the resolve, the grit, all those types of things we can discuss with wide receivers or just NFL players in general. Jack has all of that. And I think you look at not only the things that he's gone through in his personal life, still going through the process, as well as just his journey as a player. Like he transferred, he started his collegiate career at LSU and he was excelling at LSU as a freaking tight end, Heath. And then he drops weight, he transfers to tcu, he turns into being a slot wide receiver and Then he has another metamorphosis in his final year at TCU and he turned and he jumps to the perimeter and he wins there. Like in his final year at TCU he was 17th in receiving grade, 22nd in missed tackles forced. And I think we're still seeing a player that I'll say the, the what I was able to see from him and what he was able to do in Mobile, the fact that yeah, he won the, the awards at Mobile, caught the game winning touchdown, all that kind of stuff. I mean it was just the cherry on top of a fantastic week for Jack Besh in Mobile where he won from the slot he won on End Breakers Outbreakers. He won on the perimeter as well. A player that you're not going to see blazing speed out of Jack Bash. But I, I'd say overall with wide receivers in general, the 40 times get grossly. I mean we can say in fantasy we're trying not to double count speed. The NFL double count speed all the freaking time. You know, guys run fast and we're saying, okay, we already knew he was fast. And then NFL is saying, oh, mouth watering, we can't drive this guy fast enough. And with Jack Bash, he's not going to check that box. He's not a guy that's going to blaze a 40 like running 4, 4, 4, 3, whatever. Probably a high 4 or 5 guy, maybe a low 4, 6 guy. But the guy you're talking about that he wins with the finer points of wide receiver play with his ability with releases, his route running, can play inside, outside. I think he definitely proved that even more in Mobile where there were a number of balls like Jalen Milrose. Probably best pass of the week went to Jack Besh on a perimeter route. I think he ran like a double move or a go route up the sideline and came down with the back shoulder ball with. It was contested and just looked awesome doing it. So a player that I don't think we've seen the best football yet to be played, I think it's still in front of him. Heath for Jack Besh and just the evolution of his game, I think that we could still see another level to his game. Just as he gets more and more and more comfortable playing wide receiver playing from the perimeter, we could see more for him in the NFL. I've got like a round three grade on him, but if a team were to take him at the back end of round two, I, I honestly wouldn't be that surprised.
- [37:42]
Heath Cummings
So you mentioned it like he played all over the place. In college, and he showed an ability at the Senior bowl to do that as well. Do you think that he could line up anywhere in the NFL, or do you think he's primarily going to be a slot in the NFL?
- [37:55]
Derek Brown
I think he can play 50, 50. I, I don't want to see him probably like an 80, 90% perimeter guy. Like, I think he, he can, he can operate in that way. And especially with the NFL going to. I mean, almost. I mean, every single NFL defense is 50% zone a lot. Most of them, almost all of them are 54, 55% zone on a weekly basis, at least. And you're talking about winning versus off coverage on the outside. Can he do that? Yes, I think the best in terms of fantasy ceiling and him actualizing the highest ceiling possible for his skills at the NFL. As far as drawing targets, I think the best role for him is either as a power slot or playing 50, 50 and getting slot exposure. So I think he can win from the outside, but it's not a role. I don't want him locked into a perimeter only or a perimeter dominant role.
- [38:49]
Heath Cummings
Right. Like, for. If he plays in two wide receiver sets, but when they go to three, he's the guy that goes inside.
- [38:55]
Derek Brown
Yes, yes. Or he's getting like half of the pie as far as the slot stuff.
- [39:00]
Heath Cummings
I, I think people will rightly or wrongly look at Besh as kind of this crafty technician and. But, but last guy, last guy off.
- [39:10]
Derek Brown
The practice field, he. You know all the narratives.
- [39:13]
Heath Cummings
Yes, yes. If, if Bill Belichick was still in New England, we just. I'll mock him there. But, like, I think it's a, It's a worthwhile question because you mentioned it. He doesn't have the elite speed, and those technical skills are fantastic to have. And we've got players in this draft that might get drafted ahead of him that are behind him in those areas. But there's also a certain baseline of athleticism that no matter how good your skills are, you have to be at least this athletic to win against NFL cornerbacks. Do you think he possesses that type of athleticism?
- [39:45]
Derek Brown
I do. And he showed that now wisely. And I would say this to every prospect coming out, like, if you haven't, if you know your 40 is not great or, you know your testing isn't great in certain areas, don't do it. Just. Just don't do it. And if your agent is telling you to do it, you need to look for a new agent. So I think it's very wise that Jack Besh did the things that he did at the combine and the testing like he went out, his vert wasn't great. You could watch the film and I'm not going to tell you that Jack Besh's vert was going to be great. But look at the broad jump, he was 93rd percentile as well as the, the, the three cone drill, he was 85th percentile. So I think the parts of his game he didn't run the 40 which was wise because I think we've had enough guys come out in previous years. I mean come on Heath. I'm old enough to remember that Puka Nakua was slow, he wasn't fast enough. Cooper cup wasn't fast enough. All these other we can go down laundry list of players where the NFL are at least the consortium before the draft said these guys are not fast enough and yet it doesn't matter. So I think Jack Bash is definitely athletic enough and I think he was wise to do the testing that he did and that he didn't do.
- [40:56]
Heath Cummings
Awesome, awesome stuff on Jack Bash, the wide receiver out of TCU, we are coming to wide receiver 12 in the rookie class and it's Xavier Restrepo out of Miami. I should have had Adam Azer come on here or Dave get excited about their hurricane. This is a South Florida kid through and through, went to high school down here. I believe he was born down here. What's your eval on him, man?
- [41:20]
Derek Brown
I was so much higher on Restrepo before he went out to the combine and then ran and I mean somewhere he.
- [41:27]
Heath Cummings
This is why you tell Jack Besh not to run the 40, dude.
- [41:30]
Derek Brown
Exactly, exactly. Like if you're banged up or you're dinged up, just don't run the 40, man. Like and this comes down to like if you're going to run the 40 at a 47 or a 4 8. Basically Xavier Restrepo is, I mean he's, he's running the 40 of a slow, a slow tight end but he's a, he's a, a 510 slot wide receiver and he's built like a running back. Like if you were to just take away the names and you put both these guys and just body composition next to each other. I mean Xavier Restrepo looks like Cody Schrader except he's playing slot wide receiver. I, I, I don't understand why Restrepo ran the 40. I mean even if like, like look like you got to know your times, you got to know your time speed and he was like, oh, I was hurt well, if you're hurt, then why the heck are you running anyway, man? Like, why? I don't get it. So for Restrepo, I was higher on him. Like, I had him in that wide receiver 15 to 18 kind of bucket before the 40s and stuff like that. But really, like now, I mean, I've dropped him all the way to wide receiver. I think the conversation for him starts at like wide receiver 18. I've got him at wide receiver 21 right now. So it's kind of a good thing that Dave and everybody are not on this because I'm not saying great things about Restrepo. But I mean, honestly, he's like, you look at it like, you look at the 40 time. That's damning. I mean, it's, it's absolutely damning his 40 time. So we're looking at a player. And this all goes back to like players helping or hurting their possible draft capital by, by the testing they're doing or they're not doing. He didn't help himself as a player. Like, in the best case of scenarios, you're probably hoping Xavier Restrepo goes in round four, the NFL draft, after running that 40, being a slot confined player. What are we talking about? Heath? I mean, probably like a round five guy now. I mean, do you project him to go higher than that?
- [43:28]
Heath Cummings
No, I, I think it could fall worse than that.
- [43:31]
Derek Brown
Yeah, same. I won't be surprised if he goes round six. And so we're talking about he's a slot player. He's limited athletically. Like, there are good things to point to on his analytical profile. But again, there are also a lot of bad things, both with the athletic testing his role and the role we project in the NFL because he is definitively a slot only player. Like, I don't think that he has obviously the juice to stretch the field. He's. He's. Again, we're Jalen all I'm talking about a player that plays bigger than his size. The catch radius is bigger. I don't think that's the case for Xavier Restrepo. Like, dude can't run a fast 40, daddy's jumping out the gym. Doubt that's the case. So, I mean, definitively, it's a very confined role. The draft capital is not going to be there. It's hard for me to really get excited about a player like Xavier Restrepo where it's like, if you even wanted to look at that archetype of player Heath, like, can you just make a better case for Tez Johnson even Going further down the board. Maybe somebody like Isaac Tesla who tested better and he's a big slot it. That's where it's like I, I just have a hard time getting excited for Restrepo despite what he did do from accounting stat and some of the things on his analytical profile in college.
- [44:49]
Heath Cummings
I'll make sure I share this with Azer and Dave and so they get, get to hear all this. I'm sure they'll be excited.
- [44:56]
Derek Brown
Oh dear.
- [44:58]
Heath Cummings
No, in all seriousness, that, that was fantastic. We got done just a little bit earlier here, so I gotta, I'm gonna throw a couple of questions at you that I didn't prepare you for. But on earlier this week we talked about wide receiver 1 through 6 in the class with the Couch scouts and I've, I've had a lot of people on to talk about Travis Hunter and it sounds like it just keeps edging more and more, it seems towards him being predominantly a wide receiver. Maybe they're actually gonna let him do both. But it sure sounds like he's going to be a wide receiver. Is he the number one wide receiver in this class for you? If he's a full time wide receiver?
- [45:32]
Derek Brown
He is not. Okay. And people are going to think that I am just a Travis Hunter hater with the way that I'm going to talk about him. But if you stack up his numbers versus Tedro and McMillan, they're not comparable. And I understand a lot of context is needed with that. I understand that Hunter played both ways. Playing cornerback and having a split focus is definitely going to lead the to the fact of that he has got things to clean up in his game for Travis Hunter. For a player that over the last two years ranked 38th and 86th amongst FPS wide receivers, at least 50 targets in yards per route run. Are those the analytical numbers that we would point to and say this is the clear wide receiver one at? No, I couldn't. But it's not even just the analytical stuff, Heath. It's. It's also the fact of you look on his film and there are a lot of parts of his film where there are things that Travis Hunter has to get better at to be a productive, a very productive and to live up to the hype that he's getting as a wide receiver prospect. And again, I'm not shading the guy. If I knew he was a full time wide receiver, that was his role and only his role going into the NFL, Travis Hunter would be my wide receiver two of this class based off a projection and upside But I cannot in any way shape, form or fashion rank him as the wide receiver one of this class. When he's not better analytically than Tedro McMillan, he's not better on the film than Tedro McMillan. I talked about Ted earlier and the difference between him and Jaden Higgins being a proven winner versus man press. That's one of the things. Even if we're not talking about the footwork for Travis Hunter, where if you go on social media and everybody was kind of clowning him a little bit for the, the Colorado pro day tick tock route stuff, where it's just wasted footwork and inefficiency, where it's like, dude, you don't have to like try to juke out the ghost or the person that or the heir that's there to get open. That stuff is also on his film. In games where double moves, he has to be more efficient. Shadors throw into a spot. Travis Hunter doesn't get there because he's too busy trying to juke a guy out in the middle of a route where it's like, dude, use one step, use to use a jab step. Be efficient because you don't have the makeup speed where like he, he has really good speed, but he doesn't have elite speed. He doesn't. Nobody will tell you that Travis Hunter has 4, 3 elite speed. So there are parts as a route technician that he has to clean up and physical corners can get into his body. They could push him off his routes. And you tell me this, Heath, have you heard any of that discussed? Just off the, off the cuff, when people bring Travis Hunter up in conversation, I feel like the conversation centers around he's a perfect prospect, he's amazing, he's otherworldly. And I'm not saying the kid isn't crazy talented and he couldn't be. Would we look back on this class, the wide receiver, one of this class. But looking at where he is as a player currently, I can't rank him here. And just for further context, Last year amongst 268 qualifying wide receivers, he was 40th in yards per route run against zone coverage. Strong.
- [48:49]
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
- [48:50]
Derek Brown
You look at what he did versus man coverage. And again, going back to my concerns about him as a route runner and if a team takes him and puts him in a traditional X role on the perimeter and says go beat man, beat press do that, I think he could have some hiccups. Starting out, he was only 78th in yards per out run against man coverage. So it's not just on the film, but it's also in the analytics of there are things he has to do and clean up in his game and I don't think that's ever part of the conversation when people talk about Travis Hunter. But correct me if I'm wrong here, Heath.
- [49:25]
Heath Cummings
No, I you know what? I'm just so glad I asked the question. We try to get as many different opinions from as many different people and we want to kind of touch all sides of things. I thought you did a great job there. Great job on today's show. Tell everybody one more time like what you have coming up for the in the next week for the draft and where they can find it.
- [49:41]
Derek Brown
Oh man one thank you for having me on there. It's it's been a fantastic time chopping it up with you and everything can be found@fantasypros.com Again, all my positional primers are already live. So quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, my top 100 skill players will be live on the site and written up before the NFL Draft Round 1. Ding ding ding kicks off. So that that's coming as well as all of those primers will be updated post NFL Draft. And please everybody check out the Fantasy Pros NFL Draft show.
- [50:13]
Heath Cummings
Thank you Derek. Thank you Thomas for making everything work. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you next Tuesday with the Tight end Paramount Podcasts the.
- [50:38]
Chip Patterson
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