21 Early Sleepers for 2025! Hidden Gems and Late-Round Steals (03/31 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today – Episode 21: Early Sleepers for 2025! Hidden Gems and Late-Round Steals

Release Date: March 31, 2025
Hosts/Analysts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Crew
Duration: Approximately 65 minutes

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Introduction

In Episode 21 of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by Adam Aizer and featuring analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, the team delves deep into the landscape of early sleepers and hidden gems poised to make a significant impact in the 2025 fantasy football season. The episode aims to equip listeners with valuable insights to dominate their leagues through strategic drafting and savvy waiver wire moves.

Bracket Challenge Update

[02:43]
Adam shares a personal update on his bracket challenge, humorously revealing his mid-tier standing:

"I am in 609th place in our bracket challenge. So yep, about 50th percent somewhere around there."

Heath and Dave engage in light-hearted banter about potential April Fool's jokes related to the show, setting a friendly and engaging tone for the episode.

News and Notes

[04:11] - [06:03]
The team transitions to discussing recent NFL news pertinent to fantasy football:

• Shane Steichen's Strategy: Colts' head coach plans to split first-team reps between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson in the offseason.

• Brandon Aiyuk's Roster Status: The 49ers may retain Aiyuk unless a trade occurs by the following day, according to Adam Schefter.

• Dolphins and Ravens Updates: Dolphins' coach Mike McDaniel confirms commitment to Tyreek Hill, while the Ravens have extended head coach John Harbaugh through 2028.

• Texans and Bills Signings: Texans sign linebacker E.J. Speed and the Bills secure cornerback Christian Benford on a lucrative four-year deal.

Dave humorously notes:

"E.J."
"Speed and the Bills signed Christian Benford, cornerback to a four-year, $76 million deal."

Quarterback Sleepers

[06:36] - [11:29]
Heath presents his quarterback sleepers: Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson. The discussion revolves around their potential upside, especially when drafted in the double-digit rounds.

• Justin Fields: Despite fluctuating performances, Fields offers significant rushing upside which can translate into fantasy points. Heath emphasizes his potential despite concerns over accuracy and consistency.

  "Because of their rushing upside they have the potential both of them to... Fields can run for a thousand yards, Richardson can run for 15 touchdowns." ([07:22])

• Anthony Richardson: Seen as a high-upside option if he can outperform Daniel Jones. However, Dave expresses skepticism about his ability to consistently outplay Jones.

  "If he improves there, he's... 100% has league-winning potential." ([09:35])

Dave ultimately prefers Fields over Richardson, citing concerns about Richardson's current ceiling.

"I would pass on him and I would rather have Justin Fields." ([09:53])

Running Back Sleepers

[11:29] - [16:37]
Heath introduces his running back sleepers: Travis Etienne, Jerome Ford, and Jordan Mason.

• Travis Etienne (ETN): Despite injury concerns, ETN's versatility as a pass-catcher makes him an attractive late-round pick. Heath highlights his potential to be a major target in Jacksonville's offense.

  "ETN is far better suited to do that than Bigsby is." ([13:07])

• Jerome Ford: As the Browns' starting RB, Ford remains a reliable option with the potential to ascend if Nick Chubb regains form or if team dynamics shift.

• Jordan Mason: Positioned as a possible flex option, Mason could excel if Aaron Jones experiences a decline due to age or injuries.

Dave adds:

"If Aaron Jones falls off a cliff, Jordan Mason's the feature back for the Minnesota Vikings." ([14:40])

Wide Receiver Sleepers

[17:50] - [34:34]
The discussion shifts to wide receivers with Heath presenting Jacoby Myers, Quentin Johnston, and Marquis Brown as key sleepers.

• Jacoby Myers: With an improved quarterback situation, Myers has the potential to surpass his previous performance levels, making him a valuable bench or flex option.

  "Jacob Myers can be in the 13 PPR point per game range. That's where he was in 2023." ([25:11])

• Quentin Johnston: A third-year receiver showing growth, Johnston could become Justin Herbert's number two option, especially if he continues to develop his connection with the QB.

• Marquis Brown: Coming off a shoulder injury, Brown seeks to reclaim his role in the Chiefs' offense, potentially becoming Patrick Mahomes' primary target if certain contingencies arise.

Dave remarks:

"Marquis Brown... he can be somebody that can pick up some big plays from Josh Allen." ([50:01])

Tight End Sleepers

[34:34] - [40:42]
Heath and the team explore tight end options, listing Zach Ertz and Brenton Strange among others.

• Zach Ertz: Despite previous declines, Ertz remains a solid late-round option due to his consistent target share and potential revival under new team dynamics.

  "Zach Ertz scored 12 and a half or more PPR fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games." ([31:11])

• Brenton Strange: With a history of explosive plays, Strange presents an upside if he can secure a more defined role within the offense.

Dave advises:

"If you're going to wait at that position to try and find somebody to be this year's Bowers, Tucker Craft, Jake Ferguson, and Isaiah Likely are the guys to look for." ([58:00])

Mock Draft Insights

[44:06] - [54:52]
The analysts engage in mock draft scenarios, discussing positional rankings and the relative value of sleepers versus higher-ranked players.

• Quarterback Rankings: Heath considers Anthony Richardson a top-tier option, even placing him above Justin Fields and Dak Prescott based on projections.

  "He is a top 10 quarterback in my projections." ([38:37])

• Wide Receiver Order: Calvin Ridley leads the wide receiver sleepers list, followed by Christian Kirk and Keon Coleman, based on their projected target shares and offensive roles.

  "Calvin Ridley... if we're drafting him in round seven, I do think he can outperform that ADP a little bit and be a capable week-to-week number three receiver." ([50:01])

• Tight End Strategy: The team emphasizes the importance of waiting until the later rounds to draft tight ends, targeting players with potential breakout capabilities like Tucker Craft and Jake Ferguson.

Final Thoughts and Conclusions

[55:57] - [65:14]
As the episode wraps up, the hosts reflect on the discussed sleepers and offer closing remarks to prepare listeners for the upcoming fantasy football season.

Adam expresses concerns about certain quarterback performances but remains optimistic about the identified sleepers' potential to provide league-winning value.

"Zach Ertz 12 and a half or more PPR fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games." ([31:11])

Heath reiterates the value of late-round quarterbacks and the potential for wide receivers like Jacoby Myers to outperform their draft positions.

Dave concludes by encouraging listeners to participate in upcoming fan mock drafts and stay engaged with the podcast for continuous updates and strategies.

"These are the guys that we're looking for later on if I don't get Bowers, McBride, Kittle..." ([58:00])

Notable Quotes

• Adam Aizer [07:22]:
  "Because of their rushing upside they have the potential both of them to... Fields can run for a thousand yards, Richardson can run for 15 touchdowns."

• Dave Richard [09:53]:
  "I would pass on him and I would rather have Justin Fields."

• Heath Cummings [13:07]:
  "ETN is far better suited to do that than Bigsby is."

• Dave Richard [14:40]:
  "If Aaron Jones falls off a cliff, Jordan Mason's the feature back for the Minnesota Vikings."

• Heath Cummings [25:11]:
  "Jacoby Myers can be in the 13 PPR point per game range. That's where he was in 2023."

• Dave Richard [31:11]:
  "Zach Ertz scored 12 and a half or more PPR fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games."

• Heath Cummings [38:37]:
  "He is a top 10 quarterback in my projections."

• Dave Richard [50:01]:
  "Marquis Brown... he can be somebody that can pick up some big plays from Josh Allen."

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Conclusion

Episode 21 of Fantasy Football Today provides a comprehensive analysis of potential sleepers for the 2025 season across multiple positions. By dissecting current NFL news, evaluating player performances, and engaging in mock drafts, the hosts offer listeners actionable strategies to unearth hidden gems and secure late-round steals. Whether you're targeting quarterbacks like Justin Fields or Anthony Richardson, running backs such as Travis Etienne, or wide receivers like Jacoby Myers, this episode equips fantasy managers with the insights needed to gain a competitive edge in their leagues.

Transcript

[Adam]

It's that time of year again. My schedule is packed with bracket busting, three point shooting, non stop basketball action. I don't want to miss a second of it and I find myself staying up late to catch all the action I can't be dragging the next morning. That's why I go for a five hour Energy shot. They're perfect for my days packed with back to back games or when my favorite team is playing late. With over 15 flavors to choose from like watermelon, Tropical Burst, Blue, raspberry, peach, mango and more, there's a flavor for everyone on their website. You have the option to build your own 12 pack or 24 pack and have it delivered right to your door. And if you're out and about, you can always pick up a five hour Energy shot at your local grocery or convenience store. They're everywhere. Five Hour Energy keeps me going during the broadcast and the next morning when I need to get myself up and to work. Visit Fiveourenergy.com for great deals and to stock up before the next tip off.

[Dave]

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[Adam]

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[Dave]

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[Adam]

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[Heath]

This is fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Dave]

What a play.

[Adam]

Can you believe this? No, I can't.

[Heath]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Dave]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance.

[Heath]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and he.

[Adam]

All right, it is almost April and we don't get to do an April fool show unfortunately, so I'll have to come up with Some type of off the air trick, I guess. But welcome.

[Heath]

No Fantasy football Today shows on Tuesday. It's really sad.

[Adam]

Oh, what are you gonna do for April Fool? FFC Dynasty?

[Heath]

Oh, man. I've got Dan the Man coming on tomorrow and we're doing our rookie quarterback preview.

[Adam]

Oh, you have to. Oh my gosh. In the middle of, of your segment, you have to tell him that the Giants just acquired the number one pick in the draft.

[Heath]

I don't know.

[Dave]

Hold on now. He's gonna see this, Adam.

[Adam]

You think so?

[Dave]

Yes.

[Adam]

I don't know. Why do you say that?

[Dave]

You are telling on yourself in the worst ways possible. Just stop it.

[Adam]

I don't know.

[Dave]

This would have been much better to do before we went on the air.

[Adam]

Well, I didn't know that.

[Dave]

Okay, this is super foolish of you. There will be no such trick being played on Dan tomorrow.

[Adam]

All right. We'll just think of something. Think of something. If, if he didn't see this, you know, go. Before.

[Dave]

You literally writes articles on our website based on what we say on the podcast.

[Adam]

Not every day. Anyway, before you get today's show about. Just before you go on the air, just ask. Before you go on there, just ask him, hey, did you catch the show yesterday? And if he says no, then, then it's a full go. Today's show is about sleepers.

[Dave]

We're going to talk about sending's listening 200. There will be a story about it on the site.

[Adam]

All right, today's show is about sleepers. We're gonna talk about some of Dave and Heath's favorite sleepers for 2025 is a very early look at the, at the sleepers here on March 31st. All right, let's see, real quick, humble brag here. I am in 609th place in our bracket challenge. So yep, about 50th percent somewhere around there.

[Dave]

Here we go.

[Adam]

Pretty good. Andrew Lengel is in first place with 117 points and he has the Florida Gators as his champion, it looks like. I'm not 100% sure about this, but if Duke wins, I think Willie Lutz is going to win. He is Duke, Auburn. So there could be a Duke Florida there actually. So. No, I wouldn't say that. All right. But anyway, congratulations so far to Andrew. Hope you can hang on and. Actually, I don't because that would mean the Gators would win.

[Heath]

So like the greatest final four ever.

[Adam]

No, I don't know. It's the second time, right. That we've had all four ones.

[Heath]

I, I saw yesterday that four of the top 10 teams of the last 10 years in Ken Palm rankings are in this final four.

[Adam]

Wow. Oh, I don't know if you remember, was it two? It was a few years ago. It was Duke, unc, Villanova. It was like man, who else was in that Final Four? I don't know. It was, it was crazy. The teams that were in that Final Four is like very impressive. All right, anyway, let's get to the news and notes. Shane Steichen, head coach of the Colts, said he plans to split first team reps evenly between Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson in the off season. Heath has Anthony Richardson as a sleeper. We'll talk about him shortly. The 49ers tomorrow. If Brandon Aiyuk is on the roster, he gets about a $23 million roster bonus. So if they don't trade him by tomorrow, Tuesday, then he is probably going to stay on the team, according to Adam Schefter. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said they're fully planning to move forward with Tyreek Hill. The Raven signed head coach John Harbaugh to a three year extension through 2028. The Texans signed linebacker E.J. speed to a one year $5 million deal. He had 142 tackles last year for the Colts and now he goes to a division rival, the Texans.

[Dave]

E.J.

[Adam]

Speed and the Bills signed Christian Benford, cornerback to a four year, $76 million deal. And that would be the news and notes. I was going to promote FFT dynasty, but we already have promoted FFT dynasty. Dan Schneier coming on the show, not listening to this show. He's going to get tricked tomorrow during the show. All right, let's get to some sleepers. Heath sends in his list first so he gets to go first. We got a lot of names here. So your two quarterback sleepers are Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson. I think Dave agrees with one of those two. Right?

[Dave]

Who are the names?

[Adam]

Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson.

[Dave]

I sort of agree on Fields. That's about it.

[Adam]

I think you even agree that there's sleeper appeal to Richardson even though he's not your favorite. But. But this is Heath's time and I.

[Heath]

Did go look this morning. I maybe should have looked before I sent my list in because I kind of shot from the hip without ADP on that. And ADP does matter to sleepers more than it does to breakouts. But Richardson with an ADP of 120 Fields 141 in the last two weeks over at NFC ADP, and I think that probably includes Some best ball drafts but both Those guys round 10 or later, close to round 11 for Richardson.

[Adam]

Yeah, I mean that feels kind of right though. I mean you're not going to take them in the single digit rounds, are you?

[Heath]

More the point that I would, I guess I would illustrate with those two sleepers is if I'm going to draft a quarterback that late, I want to get one of these guys. I want to go get a quarterback that yes, we think he, maybe he is not very good for winning football games. Although they're young enough to where that could change. We think maybe they aren't as accurate of passage as we would like. Haven't been at least. But because of their rushing upside they have the potential both of them to. I mean Fields can run for a thousand yards, Richardson can run for 15 touchdowns. And I think either one of those would be that surprising if they played 17 games. And that's been a problem for Richardson in terms of injuries so far. But if I'm using a pick in the double digigit rounds, which regardless of what position or what profile you target in that range, you're looking at someone that you very well may drop as soon as the bye weeks get there or as soon as someone hot off the waiver wire gets there. I want to shoot for guys that have league winning potential and Anthony Richardson at the 10:11 turn, if he's the best version of what we've seen for him from him, 100% has league winning potential. Justin Fields has shown us league winning potential especially at around 12 draft cost. This is, I would also draft probably one of Dave's sleepers also or one of the less exciting veteran quarterback options. But I want one of these guys if I'm, if I'm fading quarterback until.

[Adam]

The double digit runs over the last three seasons. And some of this information you've already gotten because we talked a lot about Justin Fields a few weeks ago. But over the last three seasons this is where Justin Fields has finished on a per game basis in four point per passing touchdown leagues. QB10QB. Nope, sorry. QB5, QB10, QB7 in six point for passing touchdown leagues, QB6, QB14, QB9. Now when I give the 2024 top nine per game, both formats, that's only in the first six weeks of the season. So take that for what it's worth.

[Heath]

And if you look at the complete games that Anthony Richardson's played in the NFL, his per game average is very close to Justin Fields.

[Adam]

The complete games, yeah, haven't been that many but yeah, no, not Enough.

[Heath]

Yeah, But I think 12 in two years.

[Adam]

Okay. Dave, anything to say or shall we move on?

[Dave]

It's up to you. I don't mind talking about how I feel about both of these quarterbacks, but I don't want to take a lot of time to do it.

[Adam]

We have done that a lot recently, so give me 30 seconds on each.

[Dave]

So with Justin Fields, I'll feel a lot better about him. If the jets don't add another quarterback, it means that they're committing to him basically for this season upcoming. That means that there's very, a very small chance that he gets benched for poor play. And I think that he's got that potential that we talked about. He's averaged 20 fantasy points per game, games he started last year, games he started in Chicago the year before that and there was a monster back in 2022. So I can get on board with Justin Fields as a sleeper and, and I do think that if the reports are good on Fields that he won't be a double digit round sleeper and that we're going to start to push him. Round nine, round eight, people are going to get excited and that's where he's going to go. The exact same thing will happen with Anthony Richardson and I might even be on board with it if the reports are glowing about Anthony Richardson, but he, the very first thing he's got to do is outplay Daniel Jones and you guys all might chortle at that and say, well, that's not going to be hard for him to do. Well, it's been hard for him to do for the first two years of his career as a thrower. If he improves there, he's, if he stays calm in the pocket, his footwork improves, his accuracy improves. Heath, there is no chance Anthony Richardson will be a double digit round pick. In fact, he will probably more of a round six pick. If these things happen, if there's excitement built for him, if it's clear that he's blowing away Daniel Jones, then of course he's going to go a lot higher. For now, double digit round sleeper, you would take him. I'm not convinced yet that he's going to beat out Daniel Jones. So I'm going to pass on him and I would rather have Justin Fields. But I also think we're going to have the great or late strategy at quarterback in a big way. Sorry for going more than 60 seconds.

[Adam]

All right, let's take a look at the quarterback or the running backs. Pardon me, Running backs. On Heath sleepers list, we got Travis etn, Jerome Ford and Jordan Mason. Travis etn. Interesting. We really haven't talked at all about this situation. He was just outside the top 40 on a PER game basis last season. He did. I think he left two games early with injuries. Week 6 and 9 actually left one of them early with injury. The next one was his first game back. He really didn't play much. I think he had, I don't know, 12 carries, six carries in those two games anyway. But ETN wasn't a top 40 running back last year. So you got him, you got Jerome Ford, you got Jordan Mason. Go for it.

[Heath]

Yeah, Ford and Mason, I think the more traditional sleepers they have ADPs both outside of the top 150 over the last two weeks. Mason probably needs an injury, but it's okay to need an injury when you're playing behind a 30 year old running back that's had some injury problems in the past. And I think Mason could be a good flex and a good value even if Aaron Jones stays healthy just because it's quite possible at this point in their careers Mason's a better runner between the tackles than Jones is. It's quite possible at any point in the next days, weeks, months that Aaron Jones is going to fall off of a cliff because that's what generally happens to running backs his age. So Mason just almost a free space in the final rounds of your draft if he's available. Maybe he creeps up into the round 1112 range when they start talking about the fact that he's going to have double digit touches even when Jones is healthy. But real league winning potential again. I know sleepers win weeks, breakouts win leagues, but if something happens to Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason's the feature back for the Minnesota Vikings. Spectacular value there is Jerome Ford currently the starting running back for the Cleveland Browns. Yes, I they've got a lot of other things that they're spending money on they're focusing on. I'm not sure how soon that's going to change. I'm not sure if they Nick Chubb finally figures out that no one else is going to give him money and goes back to Cleveland. I'm not sure Jerome Ford isn't better he was in the second half of last year. We'll have to see if Chubb can regain what he was before. Obviously the best of Nick Chubb is much better than Jerome Ford, but that wasn't the case last year and I think Travis ETN like you can choose your own adventure with the Jacksonville backfield if you think Tank Bigsby is the better bet. He is currently going 20 or 30 or picks later than than ETN but I anticipate with the new coaching staff that this there will be a lot of running back pass catching going on and ETN is far better suited to do that than Bigsby is. And when the when the initial press conferences were happening, almost universally ETN's name was mentioned before Tank Bigsby as one of the weapons in the offense. So my expectation is that Travis ETN is going to be the 1A, Tank Bigby is going to be the 1B, but ETN will have the lion's share of the pass catching work and so not quite around 10 pick here, but if he's available in round eight, round nine that could be just a huge value if this offense is as improved as we expect it to be and the running back target share carries over from Tampa Bay to Jacksonville.

[Dave]

I like what you said about ETN and that would make sense for Jacksonville to hang on to him this year. I believe he's in a contract year so giving them that role with the potential to be a feature back again. I don't know if I really would trust it if that was the case. That's interesting and I like that I'd have to double check to see how ETN does in zone running. I think it's good, but I would imagine that that's what we'll see a lot more of from Jacksonville this year. We saw a lot of it from Jacksonville in the past too. I I would expect both Jacksonville and Cleveland to add at least one running back in the draft and if if Cleveland would have to trade down to do it and maybe Jacksonville too. But could they be in the the the Genti Derby to try and get that guy in their backfield? They're not going to take it at 2. I'd be surprised if Jacksonville took it at 5. But those two teams certainly could add a running back at some point. That'll muddy the outlook for both Ford and etn, but they almost might have the exact same role. Heath where where they're both playing in that passing downs role. These are roles where they're proven and the coaching staffs probably will learn to trust them in them. Compared to a rookie who you know this as well as everybody, Adam, you know this that rookie running backs do not tend to play third downs in a major way right away.

[Heath]

I I think Dave brings up a good point and I should address how I handled this. Like if you were talking about sleepers three and a half weeks before the NFL draft happens. Anyone with an ADB outside of the top 70 or 80 is pretty much at risk of being negatively impacted by the NFL draft. I pretty much just threw the draft out the window because who knows which of these teams are going to do what at this stage. So yes, I think for every one of my non quarterbacks, there's a significant risk that something happens in the NFL draft and they are not a sleeper anymore.

[Adam]

Yeah, right, exactly. Especially these running backs with this running back class coming in. All right, we're going to take a quick break. I want to talk more about Travis ETN and his journey in the NFL. And as a fantasy starter, he's at times been awesome and at times been unstartable. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. This episode is brought to you by State Farm. You might say all kinds of stuff when things go wrong, but these are the words you really need to remember. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. They've got options to fit your unique insurance needs, meaning you can talk to your agent to choose the coverage you need, have coverage options to protect the things you value most, file a claim right on the State Farm mobile app, and even reach a real person when you need to talk to someone. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

[Dave]

Pro baller Lonzo Ball for buzzballs Ready to go. Cocktails take 12.

[Adam]

Buzz balls just dropped their biggest blue balls.

[Dave]

Script says Biggie's blue balls. Lonzo take 13.

[Heath]

Blue balls just dropped their biggest buzz.

[Dave]

Let's try a vocal exercise.

[Heath]

Buzz balls.

[Dave]

Biggies. Blue balls. Buzz balls.

[Heath]

Biggies.

[Dave]

Blue balls. Big balls. Just drop. Get blue balls this season with buzz balls. Please read responsibly.

[Heath]

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[Adam]

Carrollton, Texas all right, so ETN, you know, is the appeal with him just that he's going to catch a lot of passes or that he could maybe regain his form? Averaged 5 yards per carry in 2022 and was the number 24 running back per game. But this was a year where they started out with James Robinson and then after they traded James Robinson, he was a lot better. 2023, he was the number seven running back per game. He only averaged 3.8 yards per carry, but he was actually the number four running back per game in the first half of the season. And then he hasn't been the same since. You know, it just, it's basically like a year and a half of being a very good running back. A year and A half being a very bad running back, essentially. That's a simplified way of putting it. But you know, is the appeal that he might be able to regain that form?

[Heath]

Absolutely, yeah. I mean, I think when you're Talking about a 26 year old running back who's given you a pretty even sample of being very good and being very mediocre to bad, I don't feel strongly that last year in that disastrous situation is more predictive of who ETN is than the good we saw from him earlier. And I do, I guess, probably a little bit unique on this show and maybe in the industry, but when I'm looking at player efficiency and trying to put together my projections, I weigh last year more than I do prior years. But I consider all three years, especially when you're looking over range of what a guy could be and a guy as young as Travis Etienne. I don't think what Aaron Jones did three years ago matters a whole lot. But when you're talking about someone who's still in their prime, in fact at a running back position kind of entering their prime, I think that you should absolutely consider that possibility that he could be that good. And he was also really good as a pass catcher for the first two years of his career and then saw that fall off last year as well. He'd be a 60 catch guy with 500 yards receiving. And then like how much do you really have to do as a rusher to be a great value in round eight, Round nine?

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

I do think that a better rushing average and rush EPA in zone runs than. Than gap. They'll use both. But if, if we're talking about a coach calling plays who's from the McVeigh Tree, there should be more zone runs and that would benefit ETN theoretically.

[Adam]

Okay. Yeah. Bigsby. Bigsby is interesting. Another guy that we should find time for at some point because he had, he averaged five and a half yards per carry in his first 10 games. Then he got hurt and he came back and he averaged like 3.5 yards per carry or something down the stretch. But he was really, really good and was just kind of relegating ETN to a pretty bad role.

[Heath]

But at the same time his role has been pretty bad. Like even when he was really good, he has 16 targets and 33 career games. Yeah, he's only caught half of them.

[Adam]

Yeah. No, he's nothing in the passing game. Nothing.

[Heath]

Right. So if I'm going to make a bet on one of those guys, unless it's a non PPR league, but in A in a PPR league, I want to bet on the guy who has the upside of pass catching and doing something as a rusher.

[Adam]

I think the only argument for Bigsby would be that he'll score the touchdowns. He's the goal line guy, more likely than not. ETN hasn't really been great in that area and went down the stretch. Bigsby scored after he came back from the injury. He scored three touchdowns. ETN didn't score any, and they had about the same amount of carries. All right, let's go to your wide receivers. We've got Jacoby Myers. I've been dying to get into Jacoby Myers getting the upgrade with Geno Smith at quarterback. Quentin Johnston, Marquis Brown, and that's your three wide. We got two tight ends to get to later, but Jacoby Myers, Quentin Johnston, and Marquis Brown.

[Heath]

So I think that Myers first off his adp, when I went and looked this morning at the sleepers I'd sent in, was by far the highest of the group. He has around 8 ADP. If you think that's too early for a sleeper, I wouldn't even argue with you that much. Might be too early for a sleeper, but. And he's definitely one of the guys at the biggest risk of the draft harming him, but I'm not sure one wide receiver does it. I would like to interrupt your regularly scheduled programming, Adam, to play a quick game of trivia.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Heath]

And either of you can participate, but I would like for you to name wide receivers currently on the Raiders roster not named Jacoby Myers.

[Dave]

I can do this.

[Adam]

I'm gonna let Dave do this. I'm not gonna embarrass myself.

[Dave]

Trey Tucker.

[Heath]

There's one.

[Adam]

Yeah. They had him. Oh.

[Dave]

Did Terrace Marshall end up there?

[Heath]

I do not show Terrace Marshall currently on the roster.

[Dave]

Tim Brown.

[Heath]

No. No.

[Adam]

Wow. Yeah. Foreign. I'm looking at their death chart.

[Dave]

There was this one dude who they had last year that, like, I always thought had potential, and now I can't remember his name. You're gonna say his name. I'm gonna be like, that's him. That's the guy.

[Adam]

But he's.

[Heath]

Was it Alex Bachman? Wilkerson.

[Dave]

Yes, that's who it was.

[Heath]

Ramel Keaton, Jeff Foreman.

[Dave]

It was Wilkerson.

[Heath]

Wilkerson.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Heath]

Point being that we, like, they've got a quarterback upgrade. We think that they have an offensive system up or at least see some upside in their offensive system, and they could go draft a wide receiver and Jacoby Myers could still see a pretty similar target share. They just have nothing around him at the position. Now Brock Bowers is obviously going to dominate targets, but they also have a ton of holes that they have to fill in the drift. I don't think there's any gear. I think it's more likely they draft Gentian in round one than a wide receiver. So I, I think there's a really good chance that Jacoby Myers is just a borderline number two wide receiver and being underdrafted.

[Adam]

You look at his numbers, they're. They're pretty similar to Calvin Ridley's except he played two fewer games.

[Heath]

Right.

[Adam]

If we just. Let's just take a look at the raw numbers. 87 catches for Myers. Ridley had 64 catches. So many more for Myers. The yards were about the same. 1017 for Ridley, 1027 for Myers and they both had four touchdowns. Myers had nine more targets. So we're going to talk about really he's one of Dave's sleepers, but just kind of interesting. Myers, you know, 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game. Calvin Ridley 11.8 PPR fantasy points per game. You're talking about wide receiver 24 versus wide receiver 40 per game. And I'm just gonna look at our most recent mock draft and Myers went with the first pick of round eight. And Calvin Ridley went 12 picks earlier with the first pick of round seven by NFC ADP.

[Heath]

They are not just at wide receiver, but amongst all players. They are back to back.

[Adam]

Interesting, interesting, interesting. Yeah. Now I definitely think there's a case for Ridley to be a lot better than he was last year with just awful quarterback play. But yeah, I mean Myers first.

[Dave]

Myers has an upgraded quarterback too.

[Adam]

First pick of round eight. I think people probably see him as a low upside play, like a safe, low up. Do you see him that way? Jacoby Myers?

[Heath]

I, I don't think he's going to be a top 12 wide receiver. So if that. But I do think he can be a top 24 wide receiver. So I don't know if that's a low upside play in round eight or not.

[Dave]

He's exactly the type of bench receiver that you want where Sunday comes around and, and one of your starting receivers is inactive and it's a surprise and you just plop Myers in there. He's an outstanding bye week replacement. He's going to be good enough to be a number three receiver. He averaged almost 15 PPR points per game last year and he did average exactly 15 PPR points in 12 games without Devonte Adams last year. This is without another good wide receiver. On the field this is with bad quarterback play all these things come into consideration. I think the number that you're looking for with Jacoby and maybe why his numbers were really that much better than Calvin Ridley. Besides the quarterback play targets per game 8.6 even if that drops a full target per game a target and a half. Let's call it 7.1. So it really had last year. I still think Jacoby Myers can be in the 13 ppr point per game range. That's where he was in 2023. He was just outside of that in 2022. I think if you draft him with that number in mind, that's a bench receiver. A really good bench receiver in fantasy.

[Heath]

I. I love Gardner Minshew and so obviously I don't want to disrespect Gardner Minshew, but was Calvin Ridley's quarterback situation a lot worse than Jacoby Myers last year?

[Dave]

I'd have to dig into it and see just how what the percentage of very similar were.

[Heath]

Well, it might isn't catchable targets might be higher if he had more downfield targets. But and I also don't know like first off, we don't know if the Titans are going to draft Cam Ward or if they're going to trade the number one overall pick. But do we think that rookie Cam Ward is better for a wide receiver than Geno Smith? I would say.

[Adam]

I mean probably not but. But Calvin Ridley should have a. I would think a higher target share just because of the presence of Brock Bowers than Jacoby Myers would. But no just to like Las Vegas averaged 242.2 yards passing yards per game, not including sacks gross passing yards per game. Tennessee at 213. Tennessee was 26th and Las Vegas was 10th. Believe it or not. They threw a lot. They threw a lot.

[Heath]

So I will say like to the Brock Bowers argument. He was on the team last year.

[Dave]

Oh yes.

[Heath]

When you're talking about target.

[Dave]

Sure he noticed. No. Right.

[Adam]

But Myers had a much higher target. I'm not sure what argument we're trying to make here. Myers probably had a. I thought you.

[Heath]

Were saying Ridley would have a higher target share because Myers has to deal with Bowers. But did Ridley have a higher.

[Adam]

Oh, so that's the thing about Ridley. We'll get to him. Like Ridley, he had more than six targets in two of his last eight games. One of them was a revenge game against Jacksonville. One of them was seven targets. So he had more than seven targets in one of his last eight games. I don't know what that was about. His target per route run rate really plummeted. Chigo conquo started out targeting him in three of the last four games. So no, that was concerning for Calvin Ridley. But you get a competent quarterback and that Mason Rudolph, I would say is competent. Will Levis really was just chucking the ball deep. But I, I think whatever, we'll get into Ridley in a minute. But no, I mean Ridley's Ridley should have had a better target share than he did last year after DeAndre Hopkins left. But yeah, so that really stood out to me. Like first game maybe without one of the first games he had 15 targets but just never, never really happened consistently. Quentin Johnson and Marquis Brown, those are Heath's wide receiver sleepers also. Dave, who would you take a shot on? Quentin Johnson or Marquis Brown or both?

[Dave]

Marquis Brown, who is also on my sleeper list. I would imagine that Heath and I'll have the same notes on on Hollywood and and why he might matter. He's a sleeper pick because he might end up being the number two receiver and maybe some games the number one receiver for the Chiefs if Rashid Rice is suspended to begin the year. I think, I think he's less appealing if there is no suspension for Rice or if Rice is, you know, fully healthy, ready to go, which we expect him to be. But this, this is a faster receiver. Missed a ton of the year for Kansas City with his shoulder injury, not expecting him to ever be back to the top. What like a top 20ish receiver that he that we had hopes for once upon a time. But again, another good number three fantasy receiver. That's the kind of potential, especially in the case if one or more of those Kansas City targets are sidelined to begin the year.

[Heath]

And I might express just a little bit more optimism like we, I think Marquis Brown, because he has been in the NFL for quite a while, gets viewed a little bit older. He's still 27 years old.

[Dave]

Yep.

[Heath]

And now he's got a full year to recover from that injury and he was heavily targeted when he first came back last year. The Chiefs had an intention to get him involved. I don't know if you remember why we got excited about him last off season was because he was spending so much time in developing such a great relationship with Patrick Mahomes. And a lot of these guys when they're sleepers, you're hoping, well, if this guy gets hurt or if this guy is not quite right. Well, the Chiefs have two wide receivers who have potential suspensions and one wide receiver who's coming off of a major knee injury. And so I, I think there's like I know Dave doesn't like this term but there's a real contingent upside and the thing it's contingent on may have already happened.

[Dave]

I like the term.

[Adam]

Wait, what is the thing it's contingent on that may have already happened?

[Heath]

Xavier Worthy or Rushy Rice may have already done something to get themselves suspension. Rice is currently hurt.

[Adam]

Were these seams. I mean they dropped the charges. He seems like not to, you know whatever. I'm not getting that. But feels less bad. Feels not as bad as it did when the first, when the news first came out.

[Heath]

In terms of 100% I don't think it feels completely over either but maybe it is.

[Adam]

No. I would assume the NFL look into it. All right, so Quentin Johnson is. You want to just give me 30 seconds on him?

[Heath]

He's a third year wide receiver who showed sign significant improvement in his second season. He's a former he has first round pick pedigree. He's playing with Justin Herbert and to this point he still likes looks like he could be Herbert's number two option.

[Adam]

Okay, and your two tight end sleepers are Zach Ertz and Brenton Strange.

[Heath]

Get excited.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Again, these guys barely even have ADPs over on Sleeper. So we are talking about the last rounds of your draft but I, I think the expectation should be that Earth's going to have a similar role and I wouldn't be surprised if Washington throws the ball more than they did last year because they seem to progressively trust trust Jaden Daniels more as the season went on and he gave them no reason not to. So I think the pass volume goes up there. His share of the targets might be pretty similar for as long as he stays healthy. And I project him to be a 10 point per game tight end which is not exciting at all. But if you can just meh. I'm not going to draft a tight end until the final round of my draft and then I'll take Zach Ertz and then maybe I'll catch lightning in a bottle later. I think that's a very good plan. I'd much rather do that than draft one of these guys in round seven. That's probably going to score 10 fantasy points per game.

[Adam]

Man, Zach Ertz scored 12 and a half or more PPR fantasy points which is really solid in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, seven of his last 10 games if you include the playoffs, three playoff games. So again Zach Ertz 12 and a half or more Ppr fantasy points in seven of his last 10 games. Obviously bringing in Debo Samuel is not a good thing for him, but just I didn't remember this stat line. 11 catches for 104 yards on 16 targets in the NFC Championship game at Philadelphia for Zach Ertz. I remember though with Brenton Strange coming up with such a great argument for starting Breton Strange in like one of those fantasy playoff games and I'm looking at his stat line now and it was either week 16 or 17 and he scored a combined 2.2 fantasy points. Like I remember he's got. He's had more explosive plays than Evan Ingram. Every time he's, he's, every time he's. Evan Ingram's been out, he's done decently. You know, I think he's going to score about 10 ppr fantasy point. He was so bad in those last two games. And then of course he did score 10 points on four targets in week 18 when it didn't count.

[Heath]

Yeah, Ertz is more of a projections sleeper where he's just being drafted so far behind what I think the reasonable expectation for him is. Strange is more of the other kind of projection where you're projecting hopefully that he will be better than he has been so far. But he did have good pedigree coming into the league. He is a third year tight end and a lot of times tight ends are not very good earlier in their career and he showed us a few flashes last year and Evan Ingram is gone. One note I would make to just caution super excitement about Strange is it's really unlikely that the tight end is going to have the same role in the Jacksonville offense that they have the last few years with Doug Peterson there. Few coaches like to design pass plays to tight ends as much as Doug Peterson.

[Adam]

Long live Doug Peterson. Great stuff. All right, Dave, let's go over to your sleepers here and you've got a couple of quarterbacks.

[Dave]

Might be the last time we hear Long live Doug Peterson.

[Adam]

I mean I, I don't know if it was all his fault or not, but obviously not all his fault. I don't know how much he was to blame, but I just feel like that was a really underachieving team. But we did talk about etm, we talked about Breton Strange. One thing we, we didn't talk about with the Jaguars, they've had such a bad offensive line for the last three seasons and they haven't really, unless I'm missing something, they haven't really addressed it. I think that's where their first round pick needs to go. Because they, they have had really just a bad offensive line. It's really hurt them. All right, Dave, Quarterback Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott. I always think about Dak Prescott. You know, I see him on the rankings. He's pretty low. And you know, I get it. They're the Drake Maze and the Caleb Williams of the world. They're more excited, exciting, I guess, than Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott, though, in three of the last six years has averaged like more than 24 fantasy points per game. That's amazing. That's great. So, yeah, anyway, you got Dak and Justin Herbert. Who do you like better as a sleeper?

[Dave]

I like Herbert better than Dak and Herbert is probably the bigger target for me if I'm going to take a quarterback late. I can't believe how late I've gotten Justin Herbert in some of our mock drafts. So I'm, I'm gonna look for him who. And he's shown us in 2020. 2021, over 25 fantasy points per game. 2022, that was a gross year. 2023, he started hot. He had 25 fantasy points per game, his first seven. Then he got beat up. Then the rest of the team got beat up. He was terrible to end the year last year the opposite. He started very slowly. 22.7 fantasy points. Did I say PPR points per game earlier? I'm such a new. 22.7 fantasy points per game in his last 11, 29.5 in his final three. I think the coaches realized in LA that Justin Herbert is a pretty good guy to build the offense around. And if we're worried about Naji Harris rendering Herbert useless or fantasy, then I guess we're expecting Naji to play like he's never played before. I don't, I don't get it. I still think Justin Herbert will have the offense revolve around him. And then we're talking late round picks at quarterback to take a chance on to be a starter. To me, he's up there. I would take him before both Fields and Anthony Richardson because I think he won't get benched. I think he will be fine. I do expect the Chargers to add at least one other wide receiver, and I also expect them to add another offensive lineman, which will make it easier for him to throw from the pocket and make big plays like we saw him play in the middle. And in the end of the 2024 season, Herbert Absolutely one of my favorite quarterback sleepers to go after. And Dak, it's, it's the, the history that you Talked about Adam, the wiping out of last year. Forget about it. It was terrible. He got banged up. He left the season a lot earlier than we all had hoped for. Didn't have a lot of big games. And I think Dallas is, I think their team in general takes a step back. I don't think their defense will be nearly as good for the second year in a row. I think it'll force Dak to throw a little bit more. I still don't think they're, they've made the improvements necessary to make their running game dominant. Maybe that changes after the draft. They're a team that could get Genti and, and, and do very well with him. But I do think Dallas adds a receiver as well. Obviously he's got CD Lamb. Dak will have to shoulder the load and a bunch of comeback efforts. I think his past attempts per game will be very high. That will lead to good numbers and he's absolutely worth someone taking with one of your last three picks on draft day.

[Heath]

And I'll just say, like, it's hard to look at ADP right now. I know in our mock drafts these guys are available in the last two rounds of the draft because three fourths of the guy in our guys in our draft don't just aren't going to take a quarterback anywhere close to early. When you're looking at current NFC ADP. Anthony Richardson's going 20 spots ahead of Justin Fields. Just for reference, Justin Herbert's going 50 spots ahead of Anthony Richardson and Prescott's going 40 spots ahead of them. So these are, these are.

[Dave]

Okay.

[Heath]

So like I agree for sure on deck. He is a top 10 quarterback in my projections.

[Dave]

Wow.

[Heath]

Maybe a top 12 quarterback in my rankings. I'm, I've been more skeptical on Justin Herbert and it feels a little bit like the Trevor Lawrence situation where we are just year after year. Look, and Dave's right. Four years ago Justin Herbert was really good for fantasy. Five years ago he was exceptional. We get to the end of the season the last three years and the general consensus is well, yeah, he's better than that. Like I know he's finished basically QB 10 to 15, 10 to 17 for three straight seasons, but everybody just says yeah, he's just a lot better than that though. And I just like at some point he's going to have to. And I know he's had like some six game stretches or whatever, but a lot of QB2s have stretches like that. I just, I think he's a, a QB2.

[Dave]

You weren't impressed with how he finished last year.

[Heath]

I think like I said quarter there's lots of qb. I don't think his whatever six game stretch last year is necessarily better than the best stretch we've seen from Anthony.

[Adam]

Even that good. This is the problem. Like it wasn't even that good. It lasts 11 games which is where I'd say his streak started.

[Dave]

22.7 per game.

[Adam]

He's number, number 11 quarterback per game. Number 12.

[Heath]

If you're using that like it, that's not that good. 22.7 is your, your good half season sample.

[Adam]

Right.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Adam]

No, I, I right. Like we see the, the talent. Right.

[Heath]

Right. But I wasn't trying to say something. He's not good.

[Adam]

I'm kind of with you. I'm kind of with you. But, but, but you the talent that we, that we have seen. The fact that he started his career with two straight seasons averaging over 26 fantasy points per game in six point per passing touchdown leagues keeps people excited about Justin Herbert. But Heath, what I, what bothers me both those years he threw over 39 passes per game. He's not going to come anywhere.

[Heath]

That was the Kellen Moore boost.

[Adam]

Yeah. He's not going to come anywhere close to that. He was at even. Okay, so they had their first four games of the year. They barely threw. They had a buy in week five after the week five buy through 31.8 times per game. So I don't know which isn't even that crazy, right? No, it's not that good. I think my issue with both of these guys is the Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert is this. We'll be right back after this commercial break. I'll tell you my issue with both of these guys.

[Dave]

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[Heath]

Today at T Mobile I'm joined by a special co anchor.

[Adam]

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[Heath]

Where can people go to find great deals?

[Adam]

Head to T mobile.com and get four iPhone 16s with Apple Intelligence on us plus four lines for 25 bucks.

[Heath]

That's quite a deal, Snoop. And when you switch to T Mobile you can Save versus the other big guys. Comparable plans plus streaming respect.

[Adam]

We up out of here.

[Heath]

See how you can save on wireless.

[Dave]

And streaming versus the other big guys. @t mobile.com/apple intelligence requires iOS 18.1 or later.

[Adam]

Here's my issue with both of these guys. Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert, they've got one good receiver. That's kind of how I see it. You know, I think that holds them back a little bit. And Lamb is still a much better player than, than McConkey. So Edge there to Dak, but I just don't see enough firepower for the Chargers specifically. And then I got to bring this up with Dak Prescott because, you know, I wasn't. I didn't want to like Ramble too much, but when Heath, you said you had him in the top 12. I do have to bring this up. He's getting a little older. Last year the rushing totals cratered. He like, he ran half as much as he usually does and he had the highest sack percentage of his career. So I am wondering if we're ever going to get back to like a 250 even that. Like he used to run for more than that, but like a 250 rushing. Our pace is even going to give us that because he ran for like 24 yards in his first seven games. Then he ran for 30 yards in the last game that he played last year. But so I got an older Dak who may not be a rushing threat anymore. And I've got two quarterbacks who have one good wide receiver. That's my issue with these guys.

[Heath]

I don't have Dak Prescott. I have Deck Prescott projected for like 150 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown.

[Dave]

Wow.

[Adam]

And you still have him in the top 12. Wow.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

Yeah. I would put Fields in my top 12 before Dak. And if, if these guys are going 40 plus spots ahead of Fields and Richardson, then I don't know if I can call them sleepers either. That, that, that's a ecosystem that I was not aware of.

[Adam]

Okay, well, you know, I think it's only like five drafts in the NFC. I looked for the last 17 days as a five draft.

[Dave]

By the way, we will, after the draft we will bring back our fantasy football today fan mock drafts.

[Adam]

Oh, the only fans. That's great. No, no analysts. Only fans of these.

[Dave]

Only you guys. So get ready for information on that. We want to do more of those draf. So get ready.

[Adam]

Dak Prescott in the most recent draft we did was the first pick of round 10, which I thought was a little early, but. And then like. And then Justin Herbert was the, was the second pick of round 14. So I don't know that there should have been a four gap difference there. Anthony Richardson was. I took him with the second to last pick of round 12 and Justin Fields was in round 11. So it went Dak Fields, Richardson, Herbert.

[Heath]

That's how I'd rank it.

[Dave]

I'd go, Herbert, Fields, Dak Richardson in.

[Adam]

A 1 QB league. I'm taking Richardson first. You know, I, I think, I think probably everybody's heard the show, right, said this a thousand times over the last however many years. It's just, it's an upside play. And then I just wait a few rounds to get Herbert whatever if I want. But yeah, I mean, two QB league, two QB league. I would go Herbert feel Herbert Fields, Dak Richardson, I guess. Yeah. Okay. All right, let's go to running backs. Dave has Austin Eckler, Trey Benson and Will Shipley. Austin Eckler of the Commanders, Trey Bance, Benson of the Cardinals, Will Shipley of the Eagles.

[Dave]

Go. Benson and Shipley are kind of the same. So I'll start with. Eckler averaged 11 PPR points per game. He was around 10 per game game when Brian Robinson was on the field. That was for nine games. Talking about contingency, upside, Heath, he averaged 15.4 PPR points per game in the three games. Without Brian Robinson, there's no way that Eckler is going to go back to being the main running back in Washington and Brian Robinson taking a back seat or getting, you know, five carries a game, something like that. But as bench running backs go in full ppr, Eckler's still going to be able to get the job done and he's got potential to have some four or five catch weeks. So that's somebody that I wouldn't mind having on my bench. Just with the understanding that the upside really won't be seen until he gets just a major opportunity, which we saw last year. He could still do really, really well with that with Benson and Shipley. They are behind two running backs, James Connor in Arizona, Saquon Barkley in Philadelphia, that there are concerns about just how well they'll hold up in this upcoming season. I can save my numbers on Saquon for when you really want to hear them, Adam, but the track record of him having over 350 touches in a season is not good. When you look at what happens after those seasons, he's coming off of a season where he had nearly 500 touches. If you include the postseason. So Shipley, the guy behind him, somebody that you just stash and lottery ticket style, you hope that he pays off. Benson's the same exact thing. He's, he's a physical runner that's got a top gear. I'd love to see him play a little bit more to begin with, but I think that Benson would have potential to be a weekly starter in the event that James Connor misses time. It's been rare. I think that James Connor has played nearly a full season or let's say a full season in back to back years. He's 30 years old coming into 2025. So I, I would be a little bit nervous. I'll put it this way. Benson assuming that they're the guy, the primary backups no matter who I take in the first six rounds of my fantasy drafts. So if I get Jim's Connor, great. I'll try and get Benson two just to lock up that backfield. But I would want to have one or both of those running backs sitting on my bench just in case. I think they've got huge contingency upside.

[Adam]

All right, as you said, Austin Eckler, Will Shipley and Trey Benson. And we have a question here from Index of Suspicion. Is Debo Samuel not taking work away from Austin Eckler?

[Dave]

I, I think Debo would take work. He'll take a work away potentially from both those running backs. We don't know for sure if that's the role that he will play in Washington. Obviously they'd be stupid to not give him at least a couple of carries at the beginning of the year just to see what he can do. But if he's going to run routes, then I'd be more concerned about him taking work away from Ertz than I would Eckler.

[Adam]

So let's see. We had week six. Eckler played without Brian Robinson Jr. Faced the best run defense in football and he got only nine carries, nine carries, 21 yards, four catches, 47 yards. Just want to see what, what he would look like without Brian Robinson. Weeks nine and 10 or without Brian Robinson Jr. And we had 11 carries and 13 carries. He did score three touchdowns in those games though. He didn't get like huge work when Brian Robinson Jr. Was out, but he was a bigger factor near the goal line.

[Dave]

Three rushing touchdowns, more valuable touches than he would normally get and he scored.

[Adam]

Over 17 fantasy points in both those games at the Giants and home against the Steelers.

[Heath]

It like everyone's not going to stay healthy anyway. So the touch crunch probably works. Itself out with a 30 plus year old running back and Debo Samuel who's battled injuries. But even if it doesn't, there's about 200 wide receiver targets from last year that didn't go to Terry McLaurin. There's about a hundred rush attempts that didn't go to Jaden Daniels, Brian Robinson or Austin Eckler last year. So there's a. There's room for a Debo rule without nerfing anyone. Too bad.

[Adam]

Okay, let's get to the wide receivers on Dave's sleepers list here. Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk and Keon Coleman. Like the alliteration here, Calvin Christian and Keon. It's not alliteration. Keon starts with a K instead of a C, but close enough. Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Keon Coleman, and just looking where they went. In our most recent draft, Calvin Ridley went with the first pick of round seven to Dave Richard, one pick ahead of all of the 49ers receivers and Debo Samuel basically in that same round. So Ridley, Christian, Kirk went in the middle of round eight and Keon Coleman went just a few picks later. Oh, first pick of round nine. Dave, you took Keon Coleman also in this draft. So you took.

[Dave]

Really how that works?

[Adam]

Yeah. How about that?

[Dave]

Yeah. So with Ridley, this is very much in pencil. Obviously I'm, I'm tying him to Cam Ward being the new quarterback in Tennessee. That's what I think is going to happen. If it's not Cam Ward in Tennessee, then A, what are the Titans doing and B, what does it really mean for. For Calvin Ridley? It would be bad. I also am hoping, this is more of a hope than anything else that, that the Titans redo the role that Ridley has because last year the role was crazy. They were running them deep most of the time. That did not work out, especially with the quarterbacks that they had. I think it would be a little bit better for him if he kept that role with Cam Ward, because we've seen Cam Ward make all kinds of improvisational plays at Miami. I think he can absolutely do that in the NFL as well. But Calvin Ridley needs to have that a dot reeled in quite a bit. Give him an opportunity to get more targets. And it's trivia time, boys. Name wide receivers on the Tennessee Titans. Not name Calvin Ridley.

[Adam]

Trailing Burks.

[Dave]

There's one.

[Heath]

He's still on the Titans.

[Adam]

He is.

[Heath]

There you go.

[Adam]

Not Nick Westbrook. Aquina. He's on the Dolphins.

[Heath]

He's gone.

[Dave]

He's out.

[Adam]

And he led the team in red zone. Targets and end zone targets.

[Dave]

He was funny. I think Calvin really didn't have a huge role in the second half of the year.

[Heath]

We had a guess of Kyle Phillips, but I think the funny thing is.

[Dave]

That Kyle Phillips, he's on the Raiders.

[Heath]

On the Raiders.

[Adam]

I don't know. I can't.

[Dave]

I don't blame you for not knowing and that's fine because the other names are Van Jefferson, James Crochet, Mason Kinsey, Jaquan Jackson. Jackson's actually kind of interesting. He was a draft pick last year and then a bunch of other guys that that fancy managers don't really need to know about. But the point is is that there's a huge opportunity for Ridley to continue to suck up a lot of targets and there is no Brock Bowers on this team as of now. So there, there is certainly the whole idea with Calvin Ridley is quarterback play will improve, targets will still be there. I know he's 31. I know he hasn't met expectations in a while and I don't think he's going to end up being a top 15 fantasy receiver or anything like that. But if we're drafting him in round seven, I do think he can outperform that ADP a little bit and be a capable week to week number three whiteout. So that's why he's on the list. We've talked about Christian Kirk a lot this off season because we figured that he was going to move on from Jacksonville. He did in in the moment when he left Jacksonville but wasn't signed yet. I was kind of poo pooing Christian Kirk because I was worried about the role that he would have somewhere else. I believe it was Jamie who brought up well what if he goes to LA and he's the replacement for Cooper Cup? I said yeah, that would be great. Well this isn't exactly that but being the new slot guy, that's the theory that he'll be in Houston. That's not bad. And that could mean that he ends up getting some good target volume. I look back to how he played in 2023. He averaged 12 and a half PPR points per game. The year before that, 14.2 PPR points per game. I'd argue that he was a little bit more of a number one wide receiver in 2022 than he was in 2023 or 2024. Certainly he was in 24 but I think he has a bounce back year and is another one of these wide outs that can be a good bench receiver. I would rather have Ridley. I Would rather have Jacoby Myers and I would rather have a lot of these 49ers wide receivers that we keep mentioning. And then with Keon Coleman, it's just hoping that he takes this next step in the second year. Buffalo doesn't add another wide out. Buffalo doesn't bring back Amari Cooper. Brandon Bean talked that maybe that they would. The door's not closed on it. Keon Coleman's a guy that they need to get going. And if he does make that leap his second year, then this is the receiver that's got the upside to be a top 20 type for fantasy. But he needs volume and he needs those downfield opportunities. And he absolutely has the profile to be a touchdown magnet for Josh Allen from high red zone on meaning from outside the 10 yard line. So from 11 yards to 99 yards, he can be somebody that can pick up some big plays from Josh Allen. He just needs to take that second step.

[Adam]

Yeah. So how do you rank them? Ridley. Kirk Ridley. Kirk Coleman.

[Dave]

For now, that's the order. But it's very easy to say, well, Calvin, really, things might not work out. Or the Titans add too many other pieces at wide receiver and that pushes him down. And Houston could do the exact same thing. Houston's got a lot of targets to recover after losing Diggs and Tank Dell might not play. There's a world where Keon Coleman could be first on this list come August.

[Heath]

I'd like to go back into Adam's discussion of whether or not this is an alliteration.

[Adam]

I. Yeah, I thought it was the same letter.

[Dave]

What?

[Adam]

I thought alliteration was the same letter.

[Heath]

Not the same sound.

[Adam]

I think it's okay because I'm very interested to know the answer. Did you look it up?

[Heath]

Yeah. Keon and Calvin definitely alliteration.

[Adam]

Well, then Christian is too, right?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Or Kirk or Coleman.

[Adam]

Yeah, There were a lot of alliteration definition.

[Heath]

I don't understand.

[Adam]

Letter or sound? Letter or sound? Yeah.

[Heath]

I don't know why I would tell you the rule and you would be like, well, I need to go look it up.

[Adam]

Why didn't you tell me the definition? You didn't see. You didn't sound me to read.

[Heath]

I didn't need to go read the definition off the Internet, Adam.

[Adam]

Well, I did, but I wasn't sure if you were right. All right, well, Dave, great job at the alliteration there. So Christian Kirk is going to be the slot guy in all likelihood for the Texans. I will point out Stefan Diggs was the slot guy for the Texans and probably not as high of a slot rate as what we're going to have Kirk at. But in the first four games of the year, with Nico Collins only four games, Diggs was on pace for 106 catches on 140 targets, and that was with Tank Dell playing. Now, CJ Stroud was throwing a little more than usual. 34.8 pass attempts per game, but he'll step into that. Stefan Diggs short area target, slot roll. And that was a pretty good PPR role last year. That's Christian Kirk, all right. Our tight end. Yeah, man. I want to talk more about Ridley. I want to talk more about Ridley.

[Dave]

I think you might be the only.

[Adam]

One from this standpoint. There's obviously a lot of excitement about Cam Ward, and the expectation now is that he's going to the Titans. He's separated himself from the rest of this bad quarterback class. But I. I keep reading these lists of people ranking Cam Ward with other quarterbacks in recent years, and even as his stock has risen, he's still pretty low on the list. He's still behind, you know, Daniels, Caleb. Yeah, I mean, Daniels, Caleb, those three, for sure. Still behind Drake May. He's still behind CJ Stroud. He's still behind. Like, he's not behind Kenny Pickett, but he's behind. I don't think he's behind like Mac Jones on most lists, but he's still not looked at as a great quarterback prospect by a lot of people. So I did want to bring that up. And also, he was absolutely terrible throwing the deep ball last year. I mean, this is my biggest issue with Cam Ward. Great throwing the ball over the middle. Great throwing the ball up the seams. Terrific in the intermediate area. Strong arm, very accurate there. Makes the improv plays. Maybe it's because Miami didn't have a great deep ball receiver, but this was not his strength. So, Dave, you mentioned you want to see Calvin Ridley's role, you know, improve. But I just want to mention if he is a deep ball guy at this point, he's 30 years old. Cat was not Cam Ward's strength last year.

[Dave]

No. And obviously, if that's his role again this year, then it's a waste of a fantasy pick.

[Adam]

All right.

[Dave]

That's something we're just not going to necessarily know. The Titans show us that on draft day when they take, you know, a wide receiver. There's. There's a bunch of wide receivers in this draft. Great deep speed. They take one of those guys to pair with Ward and Ridley. Veteran that plays a little Bit closer to the line of scrimmage.

[Adam]

Yeah, and I would say that he's his adot. Ridley's ADOT was 17.2 yards with Will Levis. Unbelievable. Ridiculous. It was 13.6 yards with Mason Rudolph, which is a very reasonable on the high side, but reasonable a dot. All right, tight end. Sleepers. Tucker Kraft, Isaiah Likely, Jake Ferguson, go.

[Dave]

These are three guys that will be incorporated in my greater late strategy at tight end. These are the guys that I'm looking for later on if I don't get Bowers, McBride, Kittle, you know, and I just want to skip over that next tier of tight end. This is who I'm looking for. Tucker Craft, last year, the numbers aren't great. Didn't even average 10 PPR points per game, but he was talked up after the season. He. He had 9.1 yards after the catch per reception in 2024. That's the most by any tight end in the past three years by one and a half yards. Adam, that might have been a stat you came up with. And I lifted. He had seven and a half yards after catch per reception as a rookie. I think that they need to use that guy more, and I think Leflore kind of hinted that that's what they're going to do. I'm curious if Leflore drops his name again at the owner's meetings this week. That's something we'll have to wait and see. But with Christian Watson a huge question mark and the other receivers in Green Bay solid but not necessarily good, certainly not meeting expectations, I wonder if Tucker Kraft gets an opportunity to see more targets per game. So I'm. I'm kind of hoping for that. And when I'm taking a tight end as the eighth, ninth tight end off the board, great. I'm. I'm hoping for. For an early jolt and maybe you can carry it over the course of the season. Same thing with likely. And I know that John Harbaugh said at the owner's meetings this week that Mark Andrews is expected back with the Ravens. That does sting a little bit for likely, but I do think that likely has athleticism. And yeah, this. This would fall into Heath's category of. Well, he's never shown it in his first three years, so why would it change now? That's possible. But a late pick on Isaiah. Likely. At least it sounds good. Now if. If the Ravens don't make major additions to the receiving core, maybe they find a way to get likely more reps and he can earn more targets and do Better than the 7.7 PPR points per game that he had last year. And, and Ferguson was a total bust in 2024. Seven and a half PPR points again. Gosh, it's worse than likely. But this is Dax guy. If the Cowboys don't make that big splash at wide receiver, then I would expect him to go back to being in that seven plus target per game range like we've seen him have before in his career. 26 years old, so there's still plenty of tread on the tire. Could be the number two target getter for Dak in Dallas. Without a good defense for the Cowboys and without a great running game for the Cowboys. Just makes sense to me that he's somebody that I would throw the dart at with a late pick.

[Adam]

Ferguson wasn't really that bad with Dak Prescott. He didn't score any touchdowns. But let me just say what was that is bad. Dax last game was against Atlanta. I believe he was on pace for 92 catches, 811 yards, no touchdowns on 126 targets. He played seven of those eight games. I mean if you give me 92 catches and 811 yards and 126 touchdowns and even just a reasonable give me three or four touchdowns. Probably talking about a starting tight end, right?

[Dave]

I would think so.

[Adam]

92 catches.

[Heath]

So yes it is. 25 drafts, Adam, over the last two weeks. Not, not many at all. But I'm curious what you guys think of this. ADP hit me so of the five tight end sleepers that we've given, Tucker Craft, 116th overall, Jake Ferguson 145th, Isaiah Likely 170th, Zach Ertz, 195th and then Brenton Strange is basically N A but 255th. He's only been drafted in about half the dress.

[Dave]

I love it. I love it for all of them and I, I understand why no one in in these drafts is is going after Brent Strange. You know, there's not going to be crazy demand for a Jaguars tight end at this point. But I, I, and I like Strange as a sleeper. He was on my sleeper list too before I looked. You're listening. This is, that's exactly the range we're talking right around round 10 or later. If you're going to wait at that position to try and find somebody to be this year's Bowers. ADP was in that range last year. We talk about tight ends every year that come out of this range and they perform much better than expected. This is what we're looking for. You could draft two of these guys, one in round 10, one in round 13, and hope that one of them is your guy for the year.

[Adam]

Yeah, I think there could be three threeish rookie tight ends that get drafted before all these guys, too. So that would make them even.

[Heath]

Probably not before Craft, I wouldn't think, but yeah.

[Dave]

Oh, I think it's possible that Warren or Loveland, depending on where they land, do go before Craft.

[Adam]

Look, to see the packers, with the third lowest pass rate in football, to see them morph after their bye week into the Ravens or Eagles was weird. I don't think Kraft can be an.

[Dave]

Injured quarterback and a great running back.

[Adam]

I don't think Kraft can be that good if that happens again. But if they start throwing the ball more, then it's actually. Yeah, I like Craft a lot and I think. I mean, I think I just made a pretty good case for Ferguson, honestly, because he stunk at the end of the year without Dak Prescott, but he wasn't that bad. He just didn't score any touchdowns. Dak didn't throw that many touchdowns. Two questions I would have coming out of this. Is Dallas's offense going to rebound? You know, they don't have the same type of offensive line that they used to have. They had their worst PFF pass blocking grade in a long time last year, and they don't really have great talent on the team, quite honestly. And they kept it in house by hiring Brian Schottenheimer. I. I didn't really love that. So let's see what they do in the draft. But can they have an offensive rebound? Oh, the basketball term. And then will the packers pass more? That's. Yeah. All right, so anybody have final thoughts? You guys all caught up on White Lotus?

[Dave]

I've never watched White Lotus. Frank Reich is going to Stanford as their interim head coach.

[Adam]

Interesting.

[Dave]

Good for him.

[Adam]

Yeah, I didn't apply to Stanford. It was like. Would have been a safety school for me, you know, just didn't. Wasn't really for me. Didn't want to go too far from home. Yeah. Anyway, I don't watch White Lotus either, Dave, but someone on our show probably should. It's basically the most popular show in America. So, you know, let's. Let's get on it, guys. We'll talk to you on Wednesday with breakouts on fantasy football, Paramount podcasts. I'm gonna be famous.

[Heath]

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[Dave]

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[Adam]

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[Heath]

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[Dave]

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[Adam]

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