6 Can't-Miss Dynasty Players to BUY and 6 Players You Must SELL (05/23 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today – Episode 6: "Can't-Miss Dynasty Players to BUY and 6 Players You Must SELL" (Released May 23, 2025)

In Episode 6 of Fantasy Football Today, host Heath Cummings teams up with esteemed fantasy football analyst Matt Okada to delve deep into dynasty league strategies, focusing on pivotal player acquisitions and divestitures for the upcoming season. Skipping over the initial advertisements, the duo engages listeners with insightful analysis, backed by data and personal experiences, ensuring both novice and veteran fantasy managers gain valuable takeaways.

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Introduction and Guest Introduction

[01:27] Heath Cummings:
Heath opens the episode by introducing Matt Okada, his former league mate, remarking humorously on their competitive history. Heath emphasizes the episode's focus on veteran (non-rookie) players, a departure from their recent rookie-centric discussions.

[01:49] Matt Okada:
Matt light-heartedly responds, acknowledging their league dynamics and shares his current endeavors. He highlights his contributions to various platforms, including FTN (Fantasy Football Nerd), DLF, and NFL Media, asserting his active presence in the fantasy football community.

[02:44] Heath Cummings:
Heath underscores the episode's theme—veteran player buys and sells. He references a tweet from Matt expressing embarrassment over his ranking of Matthew Golden, setting the stage for an in-depth discussion.

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Segment 1: Player Buys

1. Justin Fields – A Steal at QB26

[15:15] Heath Cummings:
Heath kickstarts the buys segment by highlighting Justin Fields, currently ranked QB26 by DLF ADP (Average Draft Position). Emphasizing Fields' undervalued status, Heath remarks, "Justin Fields is one of the best dynasty buys at any position."

[16:39] Matt Okada:
Matt concurs, stressing Fields' potential despite his current ranking. He compares Fields to Anthony Richardson, noting Fields' superior passing abilities. Matt points out that Fields has improved his passing each year and boasts impressive college statistics, including a 68% completion rate and 10.7 adjusted yards per attempt.

[19:20] Heath Cummings:
Heath praises Fields as "worth it," especially in super flex leagues where quarterbacks hold increased value.

Notable Quote:

• Heath Cummings [15:15]: "Justin Fields is one of the best dynasty buys at any position."
• Matt Okada [16:39]: "Justin Fields is basically, quote unquote, basically Anthony Richardson, except with less competition and arguably a better team."

2. Kenneth Walker – RB17 with High Upside

[20:05] Heath Cummings:
Heath introduces Kenneth Walker as RB17, commending his ability to make big plays. He acknowledges concerns regarding the new offensive coordinator and potential workload distribution.

[20:32] Matt Okada:
Matt delves into Walker's inconsistency and injury history, attributing past performance issues to ineffective offensive coordinators like Shane Waldron and Ryan Grubb. He remains optimistic about the new coordinator, Clint Kubiak, noting improvements in offensive strategies that could benefit Walker.

[22:55] Heath Cummings:
Heath agrees with Matt's assessment, considering Walker a solid buy despite the offensive uncertainties.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Okada [20:32]: "Under those offensive coordinators, they ran the ball in 39% of plays, which was the fourth use in the league. And they scored a touchdown on 50% of their red zone drives, which is the sixth worst in the league."

3. Marvin Harrison Jr. – WR13 with Potential

[23:35] Heath Cummings:
Heath presents Marvin Harrison Jr. as WR13, weighing his past performance against future potential. He questions whether Harrison can maintain a deep-threat role or return to more consistent production.

[24:48] Matt Okada:
Matt acknowledges Harrison's talent but points out the critical dependency on quarterback synergy, specifically with Kyler Murray. He highlights Harrison's impressive rookie stats but expresses concern over his lower catch rate and reliance on high air yards.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Okada [24:48]: "I have him at wide receiver 7 which is pretty low. I have him at 18 overall in super flex."

4. Brock Purdy – QB19 Ready for Dynasty Success

[26:16] Heath Cummings:
Heath introduces Brock Purdy as QB19, praising his performance and recent contract extension. He argues that Purdy offers significant value given his steady improvement and role as a franchise quarterback.

[28:19] Matt Okada:
Matt expresses confusion over Purdy's low ranking despite consistent performance. He compares Purdy favorably against higher-ranked QBs like Anthony Richardson, emphasizing Purdy's efficiency and high fantasy points per game.

[29:18] Heath Cummings:
Heath mirrors Matt's enthusiasm, positioning Purdy as a top-tier QB in dynasty formats and a steal in super flex leagues.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Okada [28:19]: "I don't understand how he was ranked QB19. He was a QB6 the year before. This price is just absurd because even if you only get one QB one season out of him, this price is not bad."
• Heath Cummings [29:18]: "I love him and I've got him ranked as a QB1 in dynasty."

5. DeAndre Swift – RB33 Worth the Floor

[19:35] Heath Cummings:
Heath brings up DeAndre Swift, currently ranked RB33, arguing that Swift is undervalued given his role in the Detroit Lions' offense. He contends that the lack of competition for Swift's workload makes him a floor-rich option.

[30:51] Matt Okada:
Matt supports this buy, noting the Lions' stable of running backs and the offensive improvements under new coaching. He believes Swift can offer consistent production at a low cost, making RB33 a prime buy.

Notable Quote:

• Heath Cummings [19:35]: "DeAndre Swift is in line for a huge workload. So at RB33, I think you're getting the absolute floor and he's still a guy who could have two to three years as a productive fantasy RB."

6. Tank Bigsby – Undervalued RB44 Asset

[32:21] Heath Cummings:
Heath introduces Tank Bigsby as an undervalued running back at RB44, advocating for managers to draft the cheapest option in uncertain backfield scenarios.

[33:37] Matt Okada:
Matt agrees, aligning with Heath's strategy of acquiring the least expensive player amidst ambiguity. He emphasizes that Bigsby's cost-effectiveness makes him a valuable asset despite uncertainties in the backfield depth.

Notable Quote:

• Heath Cummings [32:21]: "It's a very close range. If you have an ambiguous situation that you can't form a take on, then just draft the cheapest one or acquire the cheapest one."
• Matt Okada [33:37]: "I'm not sure what to do here. I think that the main way in which you would sell me, maybe you have, maybe you haven't, is that Bigsby is just the cheapest."

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Segment 2: Player Sells

1. James Cook – RB18: Touchdown Reliability Concerns

[35:38] Heath Cummings:
Heath introduces James Cook as RB18 and addresses a listener's query about selling him. He expresses surprise at Cook's current valuation, attributing it to an inflated touchdown rate last season.

[36:34] Matt Okada:
Matt confirms Cook as a sell, emphasizing the inconsistency in his touchdown production. He points out Cook's declining touchdown rate from 1 per 13 touches last season to every 43 touches in previous seasons, making his current high valuation unsustainable.

[37:44] Heath Cummings:
Heath agrees, highlighting the instability of relying on Cook's touchdown production, which significantly impacts fantasy scoring.

[39:33] Heath Cummings:
Heath further advises managers to trade Cook for younger, more reliable running backs or draft capital, suggesting options like Trayvon Henderson or Tank Bigsby.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Okada [36:34]: "James Cook is a sell because his touchdowns are not sticky. He’s likely to regress back to a typical RB with a lower touchdown rate."
• Heath Cummings [37:44]: "His average over his career is around 23 touches per touchdown. Last year it was 13, which is an absurd improvement likely temporary."

2. Derrick Henry – RB10: Age and Future Uncertainty

[41:10] Heath Cummings:
Heath presents Derrick Henry, ranked RB10, as a sell due to his advancing age (31 years old) and diminishing returns. He advises trading Henry for younger assets with comparable or greater upside.

[48:23] Matt Okada:
Matt aligns with Heath's perspective, admitting his long-standing skepticism about trading Henry. He acknowledges Henry's exceptional talent but concedes that aging inevitably impacts performance.

Notable Quote:

• Heath Cummings [41:10]: "At 31, Derrick Henry is facing the inevitable age decline. Trading him for younger running backs now can provide sustained value."
• Matt Okada [48:23]: "I've made my peace and accepted that Father Time eventually wins. Derrick Henry is not human, and his decline is inevitable."

3. Terry McLaurin – WR21: Touchdown Dependence and Age

[43:39] Matt Okada:
Matt introduces Terry McLaurin, ranked WR21, as a sell. He compares McLaurin's touchdown inconsistency to James Cook's, arguing that his value is tethered to unreliable touchdown production.

[51:22] Matt Okada:
Matt elaborates on McLaurin's performance, noting his stable receiving yards but declining touchdown rate. He mentions the influx of new receivers like Jaden Daniels, which could siphon off targets and reduce McLaurin's fantasy value.

[52:19] Heath Cummings:
Heath concurs, expressing reservations about McLaurin's future production given the team's quarterback dynamics and his age approaching 30.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Okada [43:39]: "McLaurin is just like James Cook in that his touchdowns aren't reliable. His core metrics like catches and yards are solid, but without touchdowns, his fantasy value wanes."
• Heath Cummings [51:22]: "Terry McLaurin has a hard dependency on touchdowns, which makes his current WR21 ranking risky."

4. Brandon Aiyuk – WR31: Injury and Inconsistent Performance

[46:03] Matt Okada:
Matt discusses Brandon Aiyuk, ranked WR31, emphasizing his injury-prone history and inconsistent performance. He compares Aiyuk's sporadic peak performances to his overall unreliability.

[53:10] Matt Okada:
He continues to express his skepticism about Aiyuk's long-term fantasy viability, citing his lack of consistent high-level production and recent injuries.

[53:58] Heath Cummings:
Heath reinforces the concerns around Aiyuk, noting that unless there's significant improvement post-injury, Aiyuk remains a risky asset at his current ranking.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Okada [46:03]: "Brandon Aiyuk's inconsistency and injury history make him a questionable WR31. His potential is often overshadowed by his lack of reliability."
• Heath Cummings [53:58]: "Aiyuk needs to demonstrate consistent performance post-injury to justify his current ranking."

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Segment 3: Listener Questions and Additional Insights

Listener Query on James Cook

[35:38] Heath Cummings:
Heath addresses a listener's question about the fair return when selling James Cook. He underscores Cook's high current value compared to his future production reliability.

[40:48] Heath Cummings:
Heath advises managers to seek younger running backs or draft capital in exchange for Cook, suggesting players like Trayvon Henderson or Tank Bigsby who offer better long-term value.

Notable Quote:

• Heath Cummings [35:38]: "Selling James Cook now, given his touchdown inconsistency, can free up resources to acquire more reliable or younger assets."

Discussion on Caleb Williams

[41:20] Heath Cummings:
Heath introduces Caleb Williams, questioning the current hype surrounding him despite potential overvaluation due to his surrounding offensive weapons.

[43:38] Matt Okada:
Matt delves into Williams' value, comparing him to past quarterbacks overshadowed by offensive weapons without delivering consistent fantasy value. He suggests that while Williams has potential, his current ranking might not accurately reflect his future performance.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Okada [43:38]: "Caleb Williams has all the offensive weapons around him, but similar past teams have not translated that into consistent fantasy success. We might be overvaluing him based on team composition."
• Heath Cummings [43:42]: "Caleb Williams should be a strong QB1, but his current QB7-QB8 ranking doesn't align with his potential."

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Segment 4: Additional Player Analysis and Philosophy

Discussion on Player Valuation Philosophy

[12:04] Matt Okada:
Matt discusses his overarching philosophy on buying and selling players, emphasizing that it’s less about the time of year and more about individual player expectations and value trajectory. He contends that managers often mistakenly associate specific times of the year with buying or selling trends.

[13:51] Heath Cummings:
Heath agrees, reinforcing the idea that player-specific factors should drive transaction decisions rather than seasonal timing.

Notable Quote:

• Matt Okada [12:04]: "It’s less about time or time of year and I think it’s more about player expectations and I think people can get caught up in 'now is the time to sell or buy.' What I care about is who the player is and what I expect to happen to their value over the next X months."
• Heath Cummings [13:51]: "It’s more specific to players like Mike Evans. Waiting to sell could lock you into losing value if his performance declines."

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Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Heath and Matt reiterate the importance of nuanced player valuation in dynasty leagues. They encourage managers to look beyond ADP and consider individual player trajectories, team dynamics, and long-term potential. The hosts emphasize that fantasy football success hinges on informed decision-making grounded in comprehensive analysis rather than following general trends or hunches.

[54:51] Matt Okada:
Matt directs listeners to his various platforms, including Twitter, Blue Sky, and FTN Fantasy, where he continues to provide valuable content and insights.

[55:09] Heath Cummings:
Heath thanks Matt for his participation, acknowledges the audience's engagement, and signs off until the next episode.

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Key Takeaways:

1. Value Undervalued Players:
   Justin Fields, Kenneth Walker, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brock Purdy, DeAndre Swift, and Tank Bigsby are identified as must-buy players due to their undervalued statuses and high upside.

2. Sell Overvalued or Aging Veterans:
   James Cook, Derrick Henry, Terry McLaurin, and Brandon Aiyuk are recommended for sale due to concerns over reliability, age, and inconsistent performance.

3. Strategic Player Transactions:
   Decisions to buy or sell should be based on individual player evaluations and future potential rather than seasonal timing.

4. Importance of Team Dynamics:
   Player performance is heavily influenced by team changes, such as new offensive coordinators, which can either enhance or limit their fantasy value.

5. Listener Engagement:
   Addressing listener questions and providing actionable advice reinforces the podcast’s commitment to helping managers make informed decisions.

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Notable Quotes for Reference:

• Heath Cummings [15:15]: "Justin Fields is one of the best dynasty buys at any position."

• Matt Okada [16:39]: "Justin Fields is basically, quote unquote, basically Anthony Richardson, except with less competition and arguably a better team."

• Matt Okada [24:48]: "I have him at wide receiver 7 which is pretty low. I have him at 18 overall in super flex."

• Matt Okada [28:19]: "I don't understand how he was ranked QB19. He was a QB6 the year before. This price is just absurd because even if you only get one QB one season out of him, this price is not bad."

• Heath Cummings [15:15]: "Justin Fields is one of the best dynasty buys at any position."

• Heath Cummings [13:51]: "It’s more specific to players like Mike Evans. Waiting to sell could lock you into losing value if his performance declines."

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This episode of Fantasy Football Today provides a comprehensive analysis of key veteran players in dynasty leagues, offering listeners strategic insights backed by expert opinions and in-depth data. Whether you're a seasoned manager or new to dynasty formats, Heath Cummings and Matt Okada deliver actionable advice to help you navigate the complexities of player transactions and optimize your team's performance for the upcoming season.

Transcript

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[Heath Cummings]

Foreign welcome to Fantasy Football today Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings, joined today by my good friend unfortunately former league mate. He probably hates me for that. Matt Okada. Matt, thank you for being here. Would you please just tell everybody you know what you've been working on lately and most importantly where they can find your work.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah, I mean listen, I don't hate you for it because I'm currently the back to back champion and having you out of the league means less competition to make the three peat happen. So. But I'm glad I can help you. It's really fun. Yeah, you can find me all over the place these days. FTN is where I'm doing a lot of my content. It's currently I used to be fade the noise. I think now it's for the numbers. I do a move to make column over there where every week where I talk buy sell.

[Heath Cummings]

Hey that's. That is very amazing how that works out.

[Matt Okada]

Yep. And then you can find me at DLF during the off season especially and then 4 for 4 particularly in the season where I host a podcast with John Paulson and then I also do stuff for NFL media throughout the year. NFL fantasy so all over the place at Matt Okada on the socials. Check it out.

[Heath Cummings]

Thank you very much for being here. And man isn't it funny how it works out. This guy writes a column about buys and sells. Today's show is about vets buys and sells. I often in May I think, okay, we've talked about the rookies for the last three months. We've kind of abandoned the vets. So this today's show will be mostly non rookies but we always start with three questions for our guests and a lot of times I go to their social media accounts to try to find interesting things to talk about. And I saw a tweet from you Matt, basically saying that you are embarrassed of your own Matthew golden ranking and so I thought I would just put you on the spot right right out of the gate. Where do you have Matthew golden ranked in rookie dress?

[Matt Okada]

I should have known to keep my hot take a shameful ranking takes off the twitter until after the podcast. So here's the thing, okay I'll just tell you right off the top where I have a ranked and then I'll then I'll say why. I have him at wide receiver 7 which is pretty low. I have him at 18 overall in super flex. That's a 206 16th overall in one QB that is as low, about as low as I've seen anyone else rank him. I have him behind Jaden Higgins, behind Trey Harris, behind Luther Burden. I have him behind the top seven running backs which includes Cam Scatter Boo. Admittedly I'm a Cam Scatter Boo truther so that's one of the reasons he's higher. But this is what it comes down to for me. Yes, he ran a 42 9. Yes he's a very good separator. He's honestly better at the catch point than a lot of receivers. His size, the tape is pretty good. But he's also 5 11, he's 191lbs and he does not have the college production profile to make up for that size like someone like Devonte Smith does. Usually when these guys come in and they're undersized and everybody gets, you know, up in arms about how they won't last in the NFL if they've posted Heisman winning multi thousand yard season type college careers, it can help assuage a little bit of that, a little bit of that concern. Golden has not he had a terrible production profile. He barely put together a decent season last year. And I think it kind of comes down to what we can expect at the ceiling. So, for example, my comps for him, I comped him to Henry Ruggs, obviously off the field issues very much aside with kind of a Chris Olave ceiling. And that sounds not bad because we feel like Chris Olave is pretty good, but he's only scored 10 touchdowns over three seasons. He's never been a top 15 wide receiver in PPR. Obviously he's had the concussion issues, but he's not at value nearly as highly now as he was a little while ago. I was reading an article by Dave Richards here at CBS breaking down Matthew Golden. He said San Antonio Holmes was a ceiling comp for what Matthew golden does. Santonio Holmes had one career finish inside the top 20, so I feel like he kind of is capped out in this Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Chris Olave kind of range like that little pocket of Dynasty wide receivers right now feels exactly like what Matthew Golden's ceiling is. But the problem is he's being drafted around where their value is as his, you know, median outcome. They're all worth kind of a late first. That's where he's normally being drafted, but to me, that's his optimistic ceiling and there's a good chance he doesn't ever hit that and he ends up quite a bit lower than that. So I'm not excited about paying that late first for his ceiling in this crowded packers offense. By the way, who we have little to no idea who's going to end up coming out on top rather than paying the median price for him, which is somewhere, I think in the middle, mid, maybe even late, probably mid first, especially in Super Flex. And I'm never getting him there, so I'm never getting any Matthew Golden.

[Heath Cummings]

You know, I. I've talked about that before and sometimes in my rankings I will put on there, listen, if you want to draft this guy, you're going to have to reach for him. Based on my rankings, I've just decided it's okay that I'm not going to get any of them. I also say, like, one of the things I've talked about a lot of times in the show is what I really wanted to be able to talk about to a diverse group of people who have different ideas than I do. These people have heard from me over and over and over that everybody's too low on Matthew golden. And then I'm taking him with the top 10 pick and I pretty Much approached the whole crowded packers situation with it's a team that hadn't taken a first round rookie wide receiver in 20 years. They already had four number two wide receivers. If they thought he was a number two wide receiver they wouldn't have taken him in round one. Listen I what I think the best approach probably is if you play in five or six leagues make the effort to get Matthew golden on one of those teams and then maybe decide if you like them enough to do it on two. But if not you can listen to Matthew and you will stay away.

[Matt Okada]

You kind of see do you kind of see that Flowers Addison tears his.

[Heath Cummings]

Floor then I think the flowers comp is a great one. I just don't necessarily view flowers production so far. I don't know that we've necessarily seen flower ceiling.

[Matt Okada]

True.

[Heath Cummings]

I think that I think he will be similar to Flowers.

[Matt Okada]

Okay.

[Heath Cummings]

It just as more of a comp and less of an upside.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

If that makes sense.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

Question number two who is you just talk about somebody you like now because that was that was mean of me to put you on the spot and have you had to be negative right at the start of the show. Who's your favorite Round three or later Rookie running back.

[Matt Okada]

It'S really close between two I like Jarquez Hunter and I like Jaden Blue a lot. I have them ranked back to back 304 and 305 in Super Flex. I would say if you're a contender that's looking for the most likely 2025 like redraft starter or if you're pushing for a championship this year I might lean Blue because he has a little bit of a a smoother path to starter touches but in most cases my answer would be Hunter and that'll typically be the case for me when you're breaking ties between guys like this is to look further out even though one player might be a little bit better in year one because things change so quickly. So right on Hunter, you know fourth round pick by the Rams which is a good start out of Auburn. It comes down to a few things. One, I think Kyron Williams is overrated and I know that there's a lot of back and forth. I think a lot of people really like Kyron Williams and a lot of people agree that he's overrated but where from where he's priced right now and obviously how he's played in recent seasons it's not surprising. I think that the the value is a little bit too high. He's had very good touchdown efficiency. He's good at scoring touchdowns and McVeigh is good at producing touchdowns for his running backs and he's gotten a really strong Bell Cow workload. But a touchdowns are not sticky. I don't like relying on them.

[Heath Cummings]

Just don't tell that Aaron Williams passed. It seemed pretty sticky so far.

[Matt Okada]

Well, he, he's done a good job in it and I think that is a lot about McVeigh because he's always produced touchdowns for his running backs. But more importantly, the Rams have showed this consistent interest in finding viable running backs to I think lighten his workload. They drafted Blake Corum last year. They drafted Hunter this year. They're not spending, you know, second round picks on these guys obviously, but I feel like they're picking running backs that they believe can fill in for or maybe succeed Kyron Williams. He also does not have a second gear. Kyron Williams, his explosive run rate last year was terrible, eighth lowest among qualified running backs and Blake Corum was incredibly inefficient. So maybe he gets a little bit better. Corum does. Kyron Williams obviously has been playing really well, so he doesn't have to get better. But I do think there's some room for him to step back and he's been injured off and on. I'm not a guys are injury prone kind of person necessarily, but Kyren has battled it. Some of that might have to do with his size, some of it might not. More importantly, he's going to be an unrestricted free agent in 2026 and I don't know if the Rams are going to pay up to keep him. So that means that there is a there's a path to RB2 if Hunter can pass Cora, which would be a nice rule to have in McVeigh's offense. There's a path to fill in for Williams if Williams misses any time and if you fill in as the RB one for McVeigh, you're going to be relevant in fantasy. And then there's a path where Williams is gone by this time next year and all of a sudden we're talking about Jarquiz. Hunter is an RB2 with maybe Kyron Williams esque upside. He's kind of a similar back in some ways so I really like him as like a he's more of a stash than some other guys but I like him a lot.

[Heath Cummings]

I I like that answer of Hunter. I will say it's been a really difficult couple of years for Kyron Williams doubters and so maybe, maybe they deserve to get something good in their life. I pretty much just think that he's going to keep being an RB1 until he's not an RB1 anymore and so I'll just keep valuing with that. But I think the Hunter pick because especially just because of the injury upside and if you like his skill set, I want Final question. It's not really about players but just philosophy. Are you more likely to be buying or selling vets this time of year?

[Matt Okada]

Okay, so this is a, this is a really interesting question because I've had some conversations with people recently about this and like are there certain times of years you should be doing certain things? I don't really know that there is. So first and foremost, obviously this depends a lot on your year over year strategy. Are you rebuilding? Are you contending? Rebuilders should be loading up onto rookies. Getting them now is kind of nice. Either before during your rookie draft because now you're getting a year head start on those players rather than drafting or like picking up rookie picks in the future. Now you have to wait and your rebuild is delayed by a year. Contenders, you know, theoretically shouldn't be selling veterans at all. And if you can buy them with a rookie pick right now when those, when those rebuilding teams want those rookie picks really bad, then that is a win. But ultimately I think it's less about time or time of year and I think it's more about player expectations and I think people can get caught up in oh well, it's this time of year. Now is the time to sell or that was the time to buy. What I care about is who is the player and what do I expect to happen to their value over the next X, you know, months. So as an example, I had Mike Evans as a sell in my FTM column this past week and somebody commented on the tweet no one should be selling Evans right now because contenders should hold him obviously and rebuilders should wait until mid season to maximize his value because in the mid season when those championship teams are going for the championship, they might spend more. Theoretically that can be true. But here's the thing that only works if Evans gains or holds the value that he has right now. From now until then. If he dips in value because he's another year older and he was dipping in production last year and a Mecca Buka is there now, then come mid season he's going to be worth less than he was now.

[Heath Cummings]

I think, yeah, I think that's a really good point. I think it's maybe even more specific to Evans just because it wouldn't be surprising at all if Chris Godwin gets off to a slow start coming off the injury and then by mid season has a bigger role. It wouldn't be surprising at all. Vuka gets off to a slow start as a rookie and then carves out a bigger role by mid season. You might wait to sell Mike Evans till week seven or week eight and all of a sudden Mike Evans has seen six targets in the last two weeks and you have a really hard time selling him. Love those points. Let's take our first break. We'll get into our favorite Dynasty Vet buys right after this.

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Matt Okada]

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[Heath Cummings]

See full [e-mail] we are back and we are talking Dynasty buys and sells. We're going to start with Matt's buys. I'm going to give the disclaimer right off the top. These are all based on cost, especially when we get to the sales. It doesn't mean we hate these guys, it just means we'd like to sell them at their current cost. I am using values. That's always a hard thing. Like what? What is a player actually worth? My favorite thing to use this time of year is just DLF current adp. So I don't think I'm giving away too much from the subscriber side to just tell you where those guys currently rank in adp. We'll talk about why we're selling at that cost. Matt gave me three buys, one of which I've been jumping up and down for all off season long so so we'll start with him. Justin fields is currently QB26 by DLF ADP and that's not far from where he is in the consensus rankings either. It's like people have just completely ignored every time Justin Fields has ever started. I and really, I think he's ranked very similar to Anthony Richardson, who has a similar upside but doesn't currently have a starting job with no actual competition for that role. I'm sorry, I'm not trying to steal all of your thunder, Matt, but Justin Fields is one of the best dynasty buys at any position.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah, I mean, it's kind of not hard to steal the thunder because it feels so obvious, but these values you just stated them don't reflect that. So for some reason everybody else doesn't see it and we have to capitalize on it. So I mean, I think the point you just brought up is great. He's basically, quote unquote, basically Anthony Richardson, except with less competition and arguably a better team. Except he's better than Anthony Richardson because he's a far better passer. Which is saying something when you're Justin Fields because his numbers have not been that great. But Anthony Richardson's numbers have been Tim Tebow esque. He's the worst passer in the league right now. So Justin Field is not that bad. Yes, he started off very rough. He's gotten a little bit better as a passer in each of his years in the NFL. More importantly, I think he was a good passer in College. He had a 68 completion rate. He had a 10.7 adjusted yards per attempt average passing in college. Both of those marks are really good. I liked him as a prospect. I think he can get to that level. I think he can have the Jalen hurts, Lamar Jackson type of progression. Maybe not as high as that, maybe not as high as Lamar, but it doesn't necessarily have to be as high as Lamar. And it's for the reason you brought up. He has been incredible with the passing that he's had every single time he stepped on the field as a starter last year, 18.8 fantasy points per game. That is good for QB7. He rushes for 60 yards a game. That is the most in the league by a quarterback, more than Lamar Jackson. So you don't have to be a good passer. You can or you don't have to be a great passer. For sure. You maybe should be a good passer if you want to be a consistent QB one maybe. Although Fields has not been really the reason you want to be so that you keep a job. And that obviously is the big question with Justin Fields. Can he keep a job he's in New York now. They signed into a two year $40 million contract with 30 million guaranteed. To me that feels more like crafty discount starter money than overpaid backup money. And so I think that their goal is to get out of him. And they've said this actually vocally. The GM Darren Mogi has said they think they can get the Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold kind of unbusting career TR trajectory out of Justin Fields. Obviously very different players, but that sort of thing where he was drafted highly sort of has fallen into near backup or backup realms and now they're going to give him a starting job and let him have a shot. I think he takes that shot and runs with it. Pun not really intended, but kind of. And this price is just absurd because even if you only get one QB one season out of him, this price is not bad.

[Heath Cummings]

It's worth it.

[Matt Okada]

I mean for sure. Yeah, it's an easy buy for me especially in one QB leagues where you can take this kind of risk. But even in super flex he's priced outside the QB2 range. Right now in super flex I'm smash grabbing Justin Fields everywhere I can.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah that's what I think is the is the difference is in super flex you probably if you acquire him at QB26 cost you probably have QB2 QB1s for this year and then maybe you have to find a quarterback. I think it probably the jets team success is going to have as much to do with Weatherfield like he needs to go win seven or eight games to make sure they're not in a position to draft a quarterback which he.

[Matt Okada]

Was winning games for the Steelers last year before they put Russell Wilson in for no particular reason. So it's not like he can't do it. And this team is not dissimilar.

[Heath Cummings]

Your second buy is Ken Walker who is currently RB17. And I think that like the I everybody knows Ken Walker is remarkably adept at making big plays. He probably tries to make a big play a little bit too often. I think the concern and the reason he's RB17 is because we've got a new offensive coordinator and we've got Zach Charbonnet there, there and people are not sure about the workload.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah, I I think it's both of those things and I think also it's a little bit of the he's been inconsistent and has had injuries and it's a we know he would be a superstar if he would just stay consistent for a whole year because we've seen stretches he was the RB8 for two months as a rookie. He was the RB8 for the first two months of last year. He's had these stretches of really, really great production, but then he gets injured or for some reason the offense stops working. Here's the reason the offense has stopped working. He had Shane Waldron for two years, who sucks. Shane was not very good. The worst offensive coordinator of the last few years. And then he had Ryan Grubb last year, who I had some hopes for. There was, you know, he seemed like he might come in and run an exciting offense. He got fired after one year. So that tells you a little bit of something about how good he was over those three years. Under those offensive coordinators, they ran the ball in 39% of plays, which was the fourth use in the league. And they scored a touchdown on 50% of their red zone drives, which is the sixth worst in the league. Both of those things, spoiler alert. Are not good for running backs. So I think the offensive coordinators hurt Walker more than Charbonnet and even more than the injuries. And so now we have a new one. Okay, well, it's just a rotating carousel. Is this going to be any better? A, I don't think it can be worse because I just laid out how bad those other two guys were. B, we don't have a lot to go on with Clint Kubiak. That's the guy, the new O.C. we, we have one year of him basically coordinating the Saints. So it's a very small sample size, but what we did see from them is they started off the year really hot and then they got battered by injuries. The offense looked incredible when they were all healthy. Alvin Camara set a career high in rushing yards in just 14 games at 29 years old under Kubiak. He had a lot of work to do that, but that's what we want from Walker, obviously. And then from what I've heard talk wise, it sounds like they'll run maybe a little more zone run schemes and they might use a fullback quite a lot. They've talked about liking a fullback. Both of those things would benefit Walker. And then every bit of off season move that Seattle has made, this, you know, these past few months has geared towards we want to run the ball and play defense. They traded Geno Smith, they traded DK Metcalf, they cut Tyler Lockett, they signed Sam Darnold, and they went guard, defense, tight end, a rushing quarterback and defense again in the draft.

[Heath Cummings]

Right.

[Matt Okada]

So I think that they're very much intending to run Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. And I think that the big thing with Charbonnet is this is the last thing I'll say. Everybody freaks out because there's a decent, a good running back behind Kenneth Walker. There's a number two in this backfield. There's a number two in every backfield. Now unless you're Saquon Barkley or Derrick Henry, you're not getting that 250, 300 carry count bell cow workle that used to be the way the NFL worked. I don't mind having a Zach Charbonnet in the backfield who can spell Walker and keep him fresh. Especially with the way Walker runs where you want him to be, making big plays like he's not a Najee Harris. Yeah, I volume really badly and I.

[Heath Cummings]

Think, I think there's definitely plenty of room for both of those guys. One of them as a borderline RB one, one of them is a flex. I don't. That's not hard for me to believe. My the big question with the new coach and I'll just say I'm higher than Walker than consensus as well. So I definitely agree with this one as well. I'm not going to say I'm going to agree with everyone but this one for sure. But like who is the passing downs role is really important in the Kubiak offense and the touchdowns you mentioned are really important. Who's handling those two jobs predominantly will determine whether Walker's a good value, a great value or whether Zach Charbonnet maybe was the guy who was the great value. But I think you could buy both those guys. Your third guy, Marvin Harrison Jr. Down to wide receiver 13 in the consensus rankings. I think you could look at that one of two ways. Well, he was a consensus top five wide receiver a year ago or man, he really wasn't very good last year and he's still wide receiver 13. You clearly see it the prior way. I've seen the. I've seen him. He's bulked up, he's taking care of his body, says he's eating a lot of protein. That's all awesome. But the real question is are they going to let him move more than five yards away from the sideline?

[Matt Okada]

Yes, that is the main question. And can Kyler Murray figure out how to hit him as he should? Those are the big questions. Ultimately with Marvin Harrison, it's kind of easy for me. It is. He had a very good rookie season. We don't think he had a very good rookie season because he was, you know, drafted as highly as he was and we all expected him to be his father right out of the gate and to be a generational prospect. His rookie numbers are close to generational and we, but we ignore that because we expected him to, you know, be Jamar Chase, basically. Honestly, a lot of this is about some of these rookie wide receivers in recent years ruining what the expectations should be for rookie wide receivers. But you know, Harrison averaged 14 yards of reception, over 14 yards of reception and at least half a touchdown per game. There's only two other rookie wideouts who have done that. One was Jamar Chase, one was AJ Green. So those are the other guys in the Harrison camp in that respect. His team air yards share was 43% as a rookie. That's the highest by a first round receiver in the history of that stat. 65 other receivers. It's above Malik Neighbors, it's above Justin Jefferson, it's above Chase. But among that same group of wide receivers, his catch rate, which was 53%, ranked 45th. His catchable ball rate last year was awful. Something happened between him and Kyler Murray where they just got way off the same page.

[Heath Cummings]

I think a lot of it is.

[Matt Okada]

Front of the back of the book.

[Heath Cummings]

It's the same thing I just said about being like running 30 yards downfield, straight down the sideline over and over. It's a lot easier to throw a catchable ball to Trey McBride who's two yards downfield and has nobody within four yards of him. So yeah, it's that also assists him in the air yard share because Trey McBride can have a thousand yard season with 200 air yards just because it's a lot of dump offs and run down the field. But I do think at wide receiver 13, that's very, very close. I've got Marvin Harrison Jr. At wide receiver 10. So again, all three of the buys I agree with. I anticipate you're not going to do the same with mine, but maybe you will. My first buy is Brock Purdy. Just got the new contract. I've been ranking it all off season as if this contract was pretty much a foregone conclusion. Now we've got it. He's definitely going to start for at least the next three years. I would anticipate he's going to be a starter in the NFL for the next 10 years. I don't know if you've looked at any of Jacob Gibbs tweet threads recently. I don't know how you miss him if you're on Twitter, but he's been showing cut ups and stats for every quarterbacks downfield throws mid range throws. I think he's now getting to the shorter area throws and they all show that Brock Purdy is a at the very least a good passer and he is playing in an offense that is just basically an EPA and yards per attempt cheat code and that's probably not going to change. Last year he had a bit of a down year and yes now he's lost Debo Samuel and Brandon Iuke's got an ACL issue but still over the last three years since he became a starter and I want to say something else when you referenced Fields fantasy points per game I think some people probably thought that was low because CBS standard is 6 points per pass touchdown. True and he's around 21 fantasy points in that in his starts and Purdy in CBS scoring since he became a starter. He is the number six quarterback in fantasy football in fantasy points per game. He's currently QB19 with a guaranteed Runway of at least the next three years. Why is Brock Purdy ranked so low in Dynasty?

[Matt Okada]

I have no clue. You, you mentioned he had a down year last year in four point scoring. I don't know what he is in six point score but he was the QB13 in just 15 games over that whole year. So how are you? How do you have a down year, missed two games, finishes a QB13, get a new contract, have basically all the same weapons. Yes you lost Evo but you expect Ricky Pierce. I'll take that step forward and you dropped a QB19. I don't understand it. He was a QB6 the year before that in four point scoring so he even has that ceiling. I don't expect him to be the QB6 maybe again ever. But I don't see how he's not the QB. You know 12 plus or minus three or four spots for each of the next five to 10 like you said years. How do you have that guy at QB19 fresh off the contract? I. I truly don't understand it. I think he's one of if not the best QB2 in Super Flex. Obviously a little less valuable in one QB leagues but if you're playing in super flex he's one of my favorite bucks.

[Heath Cummings]

I love it and I I've got him ranked as a QB1 in dynasty and I is one of those guys that I would tell you you don't have to pay as much for Purdy as how I have him valued in the trade chart and you can get him for less so try to do that first. But I do think he's likely to be like I look at a lot of rankings and you see the guys that are just ahead of him are the Baker Mayfield, the Jared Goff, the Dak Prescott, the guys who all have very similar projections for this year but are five to 10 years older than pie. Does not make any sense to me at all. My second buy a little bit more controversial probably is DeAndre Swift, currently RB33 in DLF ADP. It almost feel like feels like no one has adjusted to the fact that the Bears didn't make an attempt to go get another running back now. Yes, Nick Chubb, J.K. dobbins, one of those guys could still sign there. I just think if that happens then you're probably getting Swift's role from when he was in Detroit and everybody talks about well Ben Johnson didn't like DeAndre Swift. Well, he was still a high end RB2 in Ben Johnson's system. Everybody else in this offense is getting the Ben Johnson bump. Even the rookies Colston Loveland and Luther Burton are worth more now because they get to play with Ben Johnson. Roma Dunes, Caleb Williams gonna have a breakout year because they get to play for Ben Johnson. There's no position I don't think that Ben Johnson has been better for than the running back position. And as of May 23, DeAndre Swift is in line for a huge workload. So at RB33 I think you're getting the absolute floor and he's still a guy who could have two to three years as a productive fantasy ring back.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah, I think we what we most people remember about the Lions stint is that he was constantly getting his touchdowns vultured.

[Heath Cummings]

Yep.

[Matt Okada]

And it felt really bad because that does feel bad. But he was still producing because he was, he was a incredible PPR running back and he was putting up good yardage as well. And that was, you know, with him not having the starter role. Now as of right now, he has a starter role. So I like the way you put it. Even if they bring in one of those guys and he drops down to that role he had under Ben Johnson earlier, I think he still returns value at this RB33. This is not a hot take for me. I had DeAndre Swift in my column a few weeks ago. I think this is a great buy, particularly for a contender if you're fully rebuilding, maybe not so much because I don't know if he's on this team in two or three years, let alone the starter. Probably won't be. But this was a deep running back class and they didn't pick a guy and they haven't signed a guy so I don't know that they're going to do it again next year. And you know, last year we just look at last year he was the RB19. Last year that was a poor offensive line, a fledgling offense, disastrous coaching staff, a rookie quarterback. All those things have improved. This year they didn't bring anybody in unless you count a seventh round pick, which I don't. I don't see how he's not a mid to high end RB2 this year with legitimate potential to be an RB1 probably for this year and the year beyond. And if that's all you get at RB33 price for a contender, I'm fine with that.

[Heath Cummings]

Right?

[Matt Okada]

But you know, chances are he continues to do something beyond that somewhere. So I really like this buy. I don't know why he's priced this low.

[Heath Cummings]

Well again a lot of times it is we the last couple years in Detroit we thought DeAndre Swift might be a top five running back. At one point in the Dynasty rankings he was a consensus top five running back. He let us down at that cost and we over adjusted. I think my third by, especially if you're a basal Tootin guy is probably going to be unpopular. I am not and I don't really understand why he's been anointed already. But if you look at the rookie or the the dynasty running back, ADP and rankings, you'll often see Tootin five to 10 spots ahead of Tank Bigsby and that does not make any sense to me. I know that Tuton has some explosiveness maybe that that Bigsby doesn't have. He also dances a lot more than Tank Bigsby does and neither one of them can hold on to the football like they should. And so if I have a choice between ETN and Tutin, who in ADP are both very close to Swift at the RB30 range, or Tank Bigsby at RB44 which is dangerously close to free, then I am absolutely gobbling up all of the Tank Bigsby that I can.

[Matt Okada]

Okay, I was kind of interested to see if you would sell me on this. Not because I like Bashful Tootin or because I dislike Tank Bigsby. Honestly, I am hands off this entire backfield and have been even before the Tootin pick, especially now with the Tootin pick. So I'm I don't think I even have a share of any of these guys, but if I did it would just be a whole situation for me. I just don't know what's gonna happen there, right. I don't know what their plan is, you know, new regime, so no connection to the old guys. But the old guys have better draft capital and they flash pretty well over various stretches. It's really hard for me to know what to do here. I think that the, the main way in which you would sell me, maybe you have, maybe you haven't, is that Bigsby is just the cheapest.

[Heath Cummings]

So if you've got an ambiguous situation that you can't form a take on, then just draft the cheapest one or acquire the cheapest one. Is. That's, that's exactly where I am. That used to be my old strategy with the Bill Belichick offense. Like he's got three running backs. We have no idea what to do. Just give me the cheapest one. Eventually that guy will pay off. Let's take our second break, then we'll get to some of our favorite sells.

[Matt Okada]

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[Heath Cummings]

One of my favorite things is when questions in the YouTube comments lead into segments and Steve helped us out today. Says, hey Heath and Matt, I'm looking to sell James Cook and was wondering what's fair return for him. James Cook is Matt's top dynasty cell or at least the one I listed first here. His current value. It's funny because I don't know if you remember last year, but I was an enormous huge James Cook backer and it happened. It didn't quite happen the way I thought it was going to. It happened because of touchdowns and not because of an increased workload and Now, I agree with you that James Cook is a sell. I was surprised to see the RB18 cost because I actually think I have him ranked just a little bit higher than that and it makes me want to lower him. But I do think that that Cook as a sell is a good call and you can go ahead and tell us why. And then if you could answer Steve's question about like, what are you looking to get for him if you're selling.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah. So I will say I maybe wonder if the DLF list or DLF has been saying that James Cook is terrible and so the DLF looks a little lower because if you look at keep trade cut, which, you know, I don't know how much you use that.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I. I try to use a different sources regularly so we get a full picture. Yeah.

[Matt Okada]

So I would trust DLF ADP a little bit more for the Sharps. But on keep trade cut is probably where you're going to find a little bit more of a consensus opinion. And he's RB13 there and that's what I feel like he's actually going at. So to me, that price matters a little bit more. You. I think you said in the intro something about favorite sells. This is my least favorite sell because I hate this. I loved James Cook. I was same as you. I was in the same boat. Really likes James Cook. He had his breakout year. I'm so, I'm so excited by it. I won some Dynasty championships off of it and now I have to sell them because the price has moved in such a way that it only makes sense to. And it's really all boils down to one thing, and that's touchdowns. I said earlier in the show, I don't think touchdowns are sticky. You said, well, they've been sticky for Kyron Williams. Well, they have not been sticky for James Cook.

[Heath Cummings]

That's accurate. That was part of the case of backing him. Last year was a touchdown.

[Matt Okada]

Exactly. Yeah. Yes. So first two seasons he scored nine touchdowns total. He scored a touchdown every 43 touches. That is an absurdly low rate. Last year he scored 18 times. He scored once every 13 touches. That gap between 43 and 13 is absolutely absurd. That's math breaking. So, you know, something is going to change and I think it's going to change heavily back the other way. So you look at the best, you know, most efficient RB scorers in the league, guys like Jameer Gibbs and Devon achan, they're around 17 to 18 touches per touchdown. If you include Cook's last season, that massive, you know, unbelievably inflated touchdown rate. His average over his career is still 23 touchdowns and league average is around or 23 touches per touchdown and league average is around 30. So I think you're much more likely to see him drop to the 20, 25, 30 touches per touchdown range than what he had last year. And for some context for the listeners, like what does that actually mean? If you took his touchdown rate last year and you gave him a touchdown every 20 touches instead, which is still very good and better than his career average, he would have scored just 12 instead of 18 and he would have finished as the RB18 instead of a high end RB1. So that's the difference. It makes a huge difference how many touchdowns you score in fantasy. And his, you know, inflation last year was absurd. And he's not a super productive receiver. So he kind of needs those touchdowns to be very, very good. He's in a good offense. Yes, for now. He's entering a contract year. There's a lot of fuss about his contract. I don't like that. I don't really like Arby's going into their second contract anyway. So as much as I love James Cook, I think this is the ideal time to sell him. I don't think it'll ever be valued higher than this.

[Heath Cummings]

So as for the what should I try to get for him? I think a good place to start is okay, obviously, which rookie running backs do you like more than James Cook? Because you try to get younger at the position and maybe get someone who's better. So obviously Ashton Genti's on that list. I assume that you would rather have Amari and Hampton than James Cook.

[Matt Okada]

I would.

[Heath Cummings]

What about the group of Henderson, Judkins, Caleb Johnson, RJ Harvey? I have to put them all in the same group because everybody has a different order. I'm not sure if there's any consensus at all on those four, but if you're looking, if you have Cook and whoever your RB3 is, so let's say it's 105, 106 in that range, are you willing to deal him for that pick or that player?

[Matt Okada]

It's really close right there. So I have Trayvon Henderson is my RB3, but he's down at 7 overall in Super Flex. So 5 overall because I have two kids ahead of him in one QB. I would rather have Henderson than Cook. I would, but after that I would switch to Cook. So Judkins is after that for me than RJ Harvey. I'd rather have James Cook than Those guys. So it's right around that range. Right. I think that's what you're moving or that's what you're getting. If you're moving him, hopefully.

[Heath Cummings]

And if. What about like a guy like a Tet or a Travis Hunter? Happy to take those guys for Cook.

[Matt Okada]

Both those guys for me over James Cook.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. And I would say if you're in, like, if you're trying. If you're just trying to get younger, maybe you're one year away. I would also take Judkins and I'd consider Harvey and Johnson if you're moving towards a rebuild. I'd rather get wide receivers.

[Matt Okada]

I will also say I think you can probably get Kenneth Walker plus. Plus maybe a decent bid for James Cook. Obviously, I had Walker as a buy, Cook as a sell. So for me, I'd make that.

[Heath Cummings]

Yes. I have Walker ahead of Cook as well. So I think, like, they're right in the same range. Yeah. If you can get. Plus, that's great. Your second cell is Caleb Williams. Didn't you get the memo? Everybody's supposed to be excited about Caleb Williams. There's nothing that could go wrong. His coaches are going to watch film with him now and tell him what to look for. Everything's going to be better.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah, well, maybe. Maybe. And honestly, I think he will get better. The question is how much better will he get? And will he get better enough to justify his price and his current valuation, which is, you know, somewhere around QB8, QB7, depending on where you look. I did. I did a little research. Fun dive. When I was writing Caleb Williams as a sell for the FTN column. The Bears have five pass catchers who are under 30 that were all drafted in the top 40 overall. That's why everybody's getting so excited. Oh, my gosh. He already had multiple great players. Now they got two more pass catches for him in the top 40. He has to be good, right? When was the last time that happened? So I looked. It happened in 2021. That was the last time it happened. Oddly, it happened with three different teams. One was the Buccaneers. They had Tom Brady. He was great. He was a QB one. Interestingly, three of his best receivers were not part of that under 30, highly drafted group. They were Godwin Gronk and A B. The other two teams that had that, you know, gamut of stars, quote unquote stars, were the Broncos and the Giants. The Broncos had Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Locke at quarterback. They averaged 15 fantasy points a game in four point. Slightly better, I assume. In six point. The Giants had Daniel Jones, Mike Glennon and Jake Fromm and they averaged 12 fantasy points per game, which was the second worst in the league to me. What I wanted to do with this experiment was find out are we overvaluing the. You've got a ton of weapons. You have to be good as a quarterback concept, especially when a bunch of these weapons aren't proven. And I think that we are a little bit. So I like Williams. I think he'll be a QB1. I think he should be a dynasty QB1. But he's right now QB7 or 8. I think he should be at the back of QB1 range. I'd rather have CJ Stroud. I'd rather have Kyler Murray, which I know is a pretty hot take. I'd probably rather have Bo Nicks. I'd probably, probably rather have Jordan Love.

[Heath Cummings]

What about Drake May?

[Matt Okada]

All those guys are ranked lower.

[Heath Cummings]

No, I think I, I think those guys are all good names. I said what about Drake May?

[Matt Okada]

Drake May is right on the line for me because it's, you know, I do value the weapons a little bit and Caleb Williams has all of them and Drake May still kind of has none of them.

[Heath Cummings]

Right.

[Matt Okada]

To me it's, it's a pretty much a toss up. I would say in six point, so for CBS players I'd go Caleb Williams and maybe in four point I'd go Drake May.

[Heath Cummings]

It's that close that that'll work. I do think we've agreed on almost everything. We made it to the 41 minute mark and now I'm gonna let you break my heart. Jerry Judy is wide receiver 36 according to recent ADP. Jerry Judy. I have to say this every time I say his name is still 26 years old. Basically the same age as Jaylen. I think slightly younger than Jaylen Waddle. I am acquiring Jerry Judy this off season. Everybody else is listening to you and selling him, it seems. Why are you selling Jerry Judy?

[Matt Okada]

This is another tough one like James Cook. Because I really like Jerry Judy as a prospect and I was waiting for this breakout and he had this breakout over the last half of the second half of last year. Why did he have this breakout? It's two words. The first is Jamis and the second is Winston. Now don't get me wrong, I do think Judy is talented and if he finds another good quarterback situation, I think he has this kind of potential. But let's just look back at the history a little bit. This, you know, all the way into November of last year before Winston came upon the scene in Cleveland. He was the wide receiver 67 in value. Then he had this crazy seven game stretch with Winston where he averaged 21 PPR fantasy points a game, which is wild. In the first seven weeks prior to Winston, he had averaged eight fantasy points per game in PPR. His best single season mark was in 2022. He averaged almost 14. His best stretch of seven games prior to the Winston run was 16 at the end of that season. Now he's not being priced at 21 ppr fantasy points a game, admittedly. Obviously. So it's not like you're buying that Jerry Judy specifically, but you are buying a Jerry Judy that's nearly twice as valuable as he was at this or midway through last season. Because I think of the bump he got from Jameis Winston.

[Heath Cummings]

Good.

[Matt Okada]

If there was another quarterback that we could trust, I would feel really good about him because I like him. But what on earth is happening in Cleveland? I have no clue. I'd rather have, you know, Godwin, Shakir, Ridley. There's a bunch of vets going the same range and I'd rather have rookies like Burden Harris, Jaden Higgins, Jack Besh, who are all similarly valued if I'm rebuilding.

[Heath Cummings]

I think this is one of those situations where what Kevin Stefanski chooses is going to greatly determine what goes on with Jerry Judy. Because I think there is a guy in Cleveland who could be just as good for Jerry Judy as Jameis Winston was. It's Joe Flacco. If you tell me that they're just going to start Joe Flacco, then I think Jerry Judy might be a top 12 wide receiver this year. He was wide receiver three with Winston. If you tell me they're going to start Dylan Gabriel or Kenny Pickett, then he might not be a top 36 wide receiver. And I don't have any idea. I have. I'm just the best thing I feel like I can do in this whole hot take Shador Sanders situation is just express my complete lack of ignorance and we'll see what he becomes. But not as good for him as Joe Flacco would be. So I do think that there's both a risk and an upside at the wide receiver 36 cost. Matt is selling it. A little more concerned about the risk. I am buying it. A little more hopeful about the upside. You guys can make your own decision. I have three cells for you as well. We'll get through those pretty quick. The first one I feel like an idiot for saying because somebody said this each of the last four years. But Derek Henry somehow is RB10 in recent ADP. That would make him RB3 in this running back class. It'd make him worth about the 106 in rookie drafts. And I, I, I know the rules don't apply to him. He's just going to be as good for as long as he wants to be and there's never going to be a drop off and there's no injury risk. He's given us evidence to believe that and I don't blame you if you do. I'm not valuing a 31 year old running back in a great running back class like the number three running back in the class. If whether you're rebuilding or not, you should trade Derrick Henry for an option to take Trevion Henderson or RJ Harvey or Quinch on Judkins or Caleb Johnson. Whoever your RB3 is, make that move.

[Matt Okada]

Man, this one is so tough. I've been in that camp of the guys you mentioned who have said sell Derrick Henry for four straight years. This is officially the year I've decided even though he's older than he's ever been to, to just give up on that concept like he's simply not human. And I'm, I've made my peace and.

[Heath Cummings]

That'S why he's RV 10 at 31 years old.

[Matt Okada]

Yes, correct. And I will say like I look, I, I actually had him as a buy contender specific buy in one of my recent columns. You have to be obviously going for the championship this year to do it. But I looked into his numbers last year. He was more efficient last year than he has been in several seasons or in his whole career depending on what stat you look at. He his explosive runs. He had more than higher rate than Saquon Barkley and only Saquon Barkley had more raw explosive runs last year. So he's, he's not lost a step. I don't know what to do with him. He's not human. But in fairness, like your take is kind of the correct one because science eventually, Father time eventually always wins. So it has to happen. I just don't know if I can do it with Derek Henry.

[Heath Cummings]

I, I funny story in our YOLO Dynasty league, which is one I talk about a lot. It's a 14 team IDP league with most of the people from CBS. I traded Derrick Henry three years ago for I think it was a first and a second, went through a rebuild, came out of the rebuild, was ready to contend last year and traded that same team two seconds for Derrick Henry. So I've been both an idiot and a genius with regards to Derrick Henry. I think at this point in his career, almost anyone who is calls themselves a fantasy Analyst has been 100% right about Henry and 100% wrong in one of those years. I understand just not wanting to deal with it anymore. My second cell, probably not a popular one, but Terry McLaren is up to wide receiver 21. There's talk about McLaurin getting a nice extension and he's not 30 yet, so I, I wouldn't say he's old. He's old adjacent. He's going to be old soon. September 15th, he turns 30. I think you maybe had two years of McLaurin left. And the point that I want to make is that Terry McLaurin did not do anything different last year besides score touchdowns. It's almost the James Cook situation you look at. He had 82 catches the prior four years. He'd averaged 80 catches a year at 10, 96 yards. That's just about his average. Over the prior four years he scored 13 touchdowns. He'd scored 14 the prior three years. He. I don't expect him to go back down to four or five touchdowns, but I think you should expect it's probably closer to eight or nine this year. He didn't see a big target boost and they just added Debo Samuel. I think Terry McLaurin's a good low end, number two wide receiver who also maybe has two years of good production left.

[Matt Okada]

McLaurin's a really tough one for me. I think I'm sort of in the hold camp. Because Your point is 100. Correct. He's basically the James Cook situation. These touchdowns, and I've mentioned now multiple times, I don't trust them, they're not sticky. They're likely to regress when they suddenly bump up. The only catching point for me with McLaurin is there's a. It feels like there's a reason and his name is Jaden Daniels, why his touchdowns bumped up. He went from having horrible quarterback play for the entirety of his career to having, you know, one of the best, it looks like young quarterbacks in the league. How much of a difference does that make? Does that make the touchdown numbers trustworthy? Still, though the age cliff is there. It's really close for me. I think I mainly have him as a hold. But if you can sell him and get, you know, a borderline first round pick and draft one of these rookie wide receivers that I like more than McLaren at this point, then I'd be happy to do that.

[Heath Cummings]

And my third cell is a guy who was on we did this show back in March and I tried, I tried to choose mostly new guys but Brandon Iuk is still ranked at wide receiver 31 I don't really anticipate Brandon Iuk helping your fantasy team for sure for the first half of this season, maybe for the majority of this season. And then you get to the point where he's not that far behind Terry McLaren in terms of age. And like as much as all of us who watch film know that Brandon Aiuk is really good at playing football, that's really only translated into must start production once in his entire NFL career.

[Matt Okada]

Yep.

[Heath Cummings]

So if he's currently hurt and we haven't seen him return to form and he's probably not going to help you the first half of this year, I don't think he should be valued as high as wide receiver 31 yeah, I.

[Matt Okada]

Think this is one of those ones where we get attached to players talent which is a good thing to do in Dynasty. Mostly you should get attached to players talents and situation will change and the talent will win out. But I think we might be more attached to Brandon Ayuk's talent than San Francisco or the NFL is for some reason or Brock Purdy is. I don't know what it is, but I have the exact same notes on IUK as you. It's like, well, he's good and he had that one really good year but that's also the only really good year he's had and every other year has been a disappointment. He wasn't even playing well before he got hurt last year and now he's coming off injury. So I like this one as a sell. I think there is a time at which we have to say okay, what I see is not working out the way that it's supposed to. I think it might be time to move on to what is actually happening on the field.

[Heath Cummings]

And I think that's the same thing about a guy you referenced earlier in Chris Olavi. It's a sim similar type of deal. We know he's good at what he does, but until it translates to there'll probably be one spike year for Olave and everybody will get to say see I was right and then he'll go back to being a wide receiver three like he has been for the rest of his career. Matt, awesome, awesome stuff. Really appreciate you coming on the show today. Tell everybody one more time where they can find your work.

[Matt Okada]

Yeah at Matt Okada Okada on Twitter on Blue Sky There's a Tick tock now. Matt Okada, but mostly you can check out the FTN Fantasy, Tick Tock and all of their video socials. I'm doing a bunch of stuff over there. Rookie ranking videos are dropping right now and then 4 for 4 DLF and eventually NFL fantasy back when the season kicks in. You can find me all those places. I'll be pumping out stuff. If you want to get more buy sells. I put out a column every week so check it out.

[Heath Cummings]

Thank you Matt. Thank you Harry for making everything work. Thank you to everybody who was active active in the chat with your questions. We will talk to you next Tuesday.

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