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This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
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Wanna play? Can you believe this?
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No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
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Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
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What's going on, everybody? Welcome to beyond the box score. Advanced stats from simple people. This is fantasy football today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook. Born in Vegas, it's Adam, Dan and Jacob on Monday afternoo. And we are going to be talking about the Bengals offense as Joe Burrow might be out for the season. He's out at least three months. We're going to be talking about buy low wide receivers. We're going to be talking about the Eagles passing game. Yuck. And we're going to be talking about, speaking of a yuck, those crappy rookie running backs that are doing absolutely nothing for your fantasy team. All right, guys. Dan, I am starving. What do you recommend today for me? You got a good, good rent.
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That sand that Sandy told me about the other day that you had on the show like two weeks ago with the chicken cutlet. That's the one to go to go out get it. Don't worry about your health. You only weigh 136 pounds. You can afford it and we know you're just gonna eat like steamed broccoli and chicken for dinner anyway. So have yourself a nice meal.
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All right, Jacob, let's talk about Atlanta 22 at Minnesota 6. That was the motivation I needed to have a good lunch. Thank you very much. Yeah. So tough night for J.J. mcCarthy. McCarthy and Penix, they both scored about 26 fantasy points in week one and they did not do anything close to that in Week 2. Pennick scored 5.3 fantasy points and 6 point per passing touchdown. Leagues. Neither of them threw a touchdown and McCarthy scored 2.8 fantasy points, which is better than Derrick Henry. But Jacob, what are your initial takeaways as we have the Vikings on the screen right here? Your initial takeaways of the Vikings?
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Yeah, they. It's a little concerning right where we're at with McCarthy in this past game. Coming off of the week one where the volume was down a little bit, we can run into games like this. This was a game where we were hoping for a shootout and didn't get it. I haven't dug into all the the data and film on JJ McCarthy, but definitely will before the next couple podcasts on beyond the box score.
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I have some stronger opinions on this one, Adam, but do you Want to get in?
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No, go ahead.
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You're.
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You're the man now, dog.
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So first and foremost, if you look at last night's pass chart for JJ McCarthy, it's everything I was concerned with in his transition. The NFL. One or two pass attempts total to the left side of the field. The one he had nailer on wide open was just a terrible throw from a clean pocket. And you could see it. Man, look at the footwork on that throw. He's thrown everything into it. It's just like it looked at Michigan. But that's only one of two targets, the left side of the field. If that continues and his spray charts look like that, it'll be very, very easy for defensive coordinators to scheme against him. They'll just leave the field side wide open like they do for a lot of quarterbacks in the NFL. Some who have proven to fight through it, others who haven't. And he might be one of them. He might be a guy who can out produce what he's put on tape so far. But I have a lot of concerns. I didn't love the body language with Justin Jefferson and I understand why a garbage time reception kind of saved his line. But I think that he's not going to be in that elite tier receivers unless McCarthy steps forward. I think Hawkinson, people laughed at me for having him ranked outside the top 12 tight ends. Is, are we laughing now? Like are we still laughing about Hawkinson? What is he. He better be on your benches. You can I guess roster him but this is supposed to be the good times for Hawkinson before Addison is back. And then finally in the run game they dominated the Bears up front but they weren't able to dominate this defensive line and we saw what that did to the offense as a whole when the run game wasn't getting the amount of push they got against the Bears. And let's be about that first game. The Bears may be one of the worst defenses in the NFL or at least looked at this week. They're lost on the defensive side of all a ton of injuries. So I don't know man, I just didn't like what I saw from these two at all really. Pennix was a little bit different. At least he's got the arm talent but. And they could just run the football at will. So I think that was more of a game script thing. But on the Viking side, man, I, I don't know like these are not like to not generate. I think I saw it today. They were 32nd in pass EPA per play. The Vikings over the first two games and I think 31st in overall past EPA. And this is not supposed to happen against the Bears and Falcons defenses like they're going to face the packers defense twice a year. They're faced a lot more difficult defenses than this.
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I think the big takeaway on the Minnesota side of things is that Jordan Mason still played so much even in a game where they were trailing.
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Right.
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I kind of thought that maybe he.
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Would just be like got hurt though.
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Jones did. Yeah. Jones has a hamstring injury, so this is the only real.
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Even in the first half he played more.
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He did, he did.
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And he's their short yardage guy. Seems pretty clear. He's. I mean, even if Jones were healthy, I think I'd. I'd roll with. With Jordan Mason over him right now. But yeah, no, Mason's got a big opportunity. So. In the first three quarters, Mason played 20 snaps, Jones played 19. Jones ran 11 routes, Mason play ran eight. Mason played more on third and short. Jones was born on third and passing situations, but they split pretty evenly. But this is now an opportunity for Mason. If Jones misses time, he gets the Bengals in Week 3. The Steelers have had a terrible run defense so far. They're in Week 4. The Steelers could get healthier by then. And also I think, look, the Falcons had five sacks in the first half. That was the most they've had in a half since 2009. Who's missing your best offensive lineman? Christian Darasaw. Unfortunately, his backup has a concussion and their center, Ryan Kelly has a concussion now.
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Right.
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So they're a little depleted, but they get the Bengals next week, so we think they should turn around. And McCarthy did score 26.2 fantasy points in week one. They had the ball only for 23 minutes and 28 seconds. It was a horrible game for the Vikings. I think they'll rebound, but obviously there's going to be some ups and downs. That's what Kevin o' Connell said. Like there's going to be some ups and Downs with J.J. mcCarthy. Jefferson. Yeah. I mean, would you rather have Jefferson or Chase rest of season knowing that burrows out for most, if not all of the year?
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Chase.
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Chase.
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Without a doubt. I. I'm so encouraged by what we're gonna. We're gonna get from Chase. What we got from Lamb last year from a target standpoint, just watching Browning.
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Yeah, I think that's fair.
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CD Lamb averaged. Depends on the sample size you use. Week nine was an interesting game cause it was 65% DAC and 35% Cooper Rush, kind of. But basically, I mean, he. He did get a lot of targets, but he also had a decrease in fantasy points per game when they went from Dak to Cooper Rush. So that, you know, that happened. So. So wait, you're saying Chase, Jacob, what was your answer?
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I think that's fair. I think it's a really good question. They're really close. We'll get into the Jake Browning and Jamar Chase splits in more detail here in just a sec.
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All right.
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I think there's interesting takeaways on the Atlanta side of things.
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Yes.
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Darnold mooney back, like 86 snap rate, full time guy. And still Kyle Pitts led the team in targets. Shout out. Dan, watch the film. Lots of shout outs for Dana Day. People in the chat are saying, the hair looks good. Dan's coming in with the straw.
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I see some people hating me in the chat.
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Well, yeah, they didn't like the Jamar Chase take. But before that, you were doing great. Bajan Robinson had, like, maybe the best game of his career yesterday. He had a career high. Avoided tackle number.
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It was insane. He was a video game out there. The way he was making guys miss, it was amazing.
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Year three just keeps getting better. He led the league in success rate last year, and his rate is higher this year so far. He's very good.
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And the touchdown for Algier was a little weird down the stretch. They were kind of running out the clock, and the Vikings actually let him score to get the ball back to have at least a chance to tie the game. So Algier, he had a. He had a big role, no question. But I, for one, I'm happy that I have Bijan as my RB1. I know I had him preseason, and not that this was like a hot take or anything, but Barkley had a case.
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Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. Did you not hear last night? Were you watching? You were watching the game, right?
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Is it Bijan again?
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He wants to be called Bijan. Hey. Did a whole segment on it.
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Okay.
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Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. He's like, I did say to go Bijan. And he's like, now I'm changing my mind. Bijan himself said this. He's like, now I'm changing my mind. I'm back to Bijan. Okay, so now we can successfully call him Bijan again and not feel like we're being inconsiderate.
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Yeah, Look, Barkley's off to a good start. McCaffrey's getting a ton of catches, but I still think that Bijan.
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Yeah, that's fair.
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Is RB1 in the first half, 78%.
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Snap rate and 13 of 18 running back opportunities for Bijan. So like that's as good as it gets.
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The thing with Pitts is that he is, he is the short area guy along with Robinson, Bijan, Pitts route depth way down a dot way down. It's only two games but that's the role he's serving right now. And I talked about that last week. If that keeps up, that's going to make him, you know, a higher floor PPR tight end. What about Penix? Only 21 past I mean the story of this game really for the Falcons was they were just awful in the red zone. Settle for a lot of short field goals but they what's the total yardage in this game? I bet it is so overwhelming, so low. 326 which is not good to 198 which is embarrassing. But they completely outplayed Minnesota. They were one of five in the red zone.
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Yeah, they outplayed them because they ran the ball so well, the Falcons. But the passing game was not good in this game at all. And this was I tweeted about the time I think, you know, there's always that debate are sacks 100 on the offensive line, the pass direction? No. The answer is clearly no if you watch enough tape and and a lot of them are on the quarterbacks. This was a great example of a game where a lot of the sacks were on the quarterbacks on both sides of the ball. This is kind of what I was worried about with Penn types of games where defensive coordinators like Brian Flores, who's one of the best in the game, can confuse him and put him in tough situations. And he did take a lot of sacks and I didn't feel like if the Falcons passing game looked good at all in this game.
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Well, it's Falcons get the Panthers next week and the Vikings get the get the Bengals. So hopefully we can get bounce backs from the passing game. Minnesota also, I Look it's only two games but they are 23rd in pass rate, their 20th in pass rate in the first half. They've had very low time of possession. Only Miami and Tampa Bay in one game have averaged less time of possession than Minnesota. But they are really run heavy right now and it's, and it's kind of weird. They were sort of almost neutral last year because they had such a good defense. But for them to be so far very run heavy is is concerning. But it's only two games.
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What does that say about what they Think about the quarterback right now. Yeah.
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All right. Well, I. Hopefully Darasaw will fix some things.
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Yeah, that could be part of it as well. They don't want to leave him out there with Daras out.
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If you're listening to this episode in the FFT feed, please make sure you listen to the beyond the Box Score feed. Not for this episode. It'll be the same episode, but for all the other beyond the Box Score episodes throughout the week you are going to get. Look, obviously I love the FFT show, but we simply do not go into the same depth and detail that Jacob and Dan and whoever else is on the show goes into. I'm beyond the Box Score. That's why it's called beyond the Box Score. These two podcasts serve different purposes, and together, together, they should give you a terrific picture of the fantasy landscape. But if you're not subscribed to beyond the Box Score, the audio feed, do it. Or you can just watch everything@YouTube.com fantasy football today. If you're missing some episodes, you don't see them, maybe hit the live button. You can hit the video tab. You can hit the video tab. You'll see everything. All right, so I don't know if we settled on this, Dan. We going with a giant here because now it's time for the Him. Him of the Week, sponsored by producer Jordan Peele's upcoming sports horror film, him, only in theaters on September 19th. Big weekend. This movie's coming out. Looks pretty good. All right, who's our hymn of the week?
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As you can see from my magnets up there, moving to 02. If anyone can see that back there.
A
Wow.
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It's so bad. It's so bad. But it does look somewhat like a two back there. I'm gonna let Jacob take this one because otherwise I would have just picked a giant.
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Yeah, the people are guessing. Scatterboo in the chat. Maybe Wanda Robinson. Him of the week, week two. And looking forward, coming for that work in his backfield. Big shout out to beyond the Box Score here, one of our favorites. You like? You laughing at Basho too, my guy?
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No, I'm laughing at the tuning. Okay.
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Running back one in PPR points per touch this season. Running back one in Success rate has not taken a negative play.
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Wow.
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On any of his touches yet this preseason. He did not take a negative play on any of his 19 touches. He gained positive yards on 19, 18 out of 19 touches this preseason.
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Wow.
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He's gained at least two yards after contact on every single touch this regular season. So We've got a rookie running back who we know has ridiculous speed. Like truly ridiculous speed. His 10 yard split is like Akin to Devon H.N. keaton, Mitchell, Jameer Gibbs, guys who weigh 180, 190 pounds. This guy weighs 209. So that's Kenneth Walker, Chase Brown size. And he also has the tackle avoidance and now we're seeing it come together at the NFL level where he's not taking negative plays, he's gaining yards after contact creating when there's not much there and he has the explosive playability. So Bashal Tutin name to know if he's available. Definitely, definitely get him. I think some big fantasy days are added.
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That's great. Yeah, I mean obviously unfortunately for him, Travis ETN is also off to a very good start. But Tutin is 75 rostered. He is a must have player in basically all formats. So I know it could be tough. In 10 team leagues you have to make some tough decisions about who to drop. But in a 12 team league, if you see Tootin available, he's definitely the top, I'd say the top running back. Maybe, maybe you could argue Chris Rodriguez or something. But no, I think it's, I would.
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Also argue and I'll have more to come when we get to the rookie running back section. He's one of the best players to try to trade for this week. This, this is the time to do it. It was last week, but if you missed on last week, now is the time we'll get to more of that.
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Can I hold on. We're gonna do a whole segment about how wrong we've been about Trayvon Henderson and RJ Harvey basically because they are unable to usurp the veterans that are in front of them. ETN is off to a very good start. He's doing nothing to lose this job.
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He's not him.
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I mean, look, I know Treveon Henderson is a, is a more talented player than Ramondre Stevenson. At least. I, you know, I feel like I know that and it's not happening yet. So I, I think R.J. harvey's more talented than, not necessarily J.K. dobbins, but then Tyler Bidet and.
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But I don't think he needs to be in a him in a hymn type of role just to keep using our him thing to be super successful for fantasy and worth trading for right now. Bucky Irving wasn't in that role.
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Super successful. I mean, you want to say successful, fine, super successful.
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What was Lucky Irving last year, I.
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Don'T think was Necessarily super successful.
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Well, then whatever that kind of was. He was, he was with limited. He didn't need.
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No, no. I mean until he, until he really took over the backfield. But, but he kind of was. Yeah, but that's, that's an exception to the rule. All right, fine. I hope he is because he looks terrific. And that was the hymn of the week sponsored by the upcoming film Him. Producer Jordan Peele invites you to the football, sports and horror event of the season, which asks the question, what are you willing to sacrifice? See him only in theaters on September 19th. Comment from Arnold Dan is the guy who says I'm him after sinking a basketball shot?
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No, I, people think that that's not me. I'm a quiet, you know, if I'll make. And I play 10. I don't play basketball anymore. Tennis and golf. But you'll see an occasional fist pump after a really good putt that people, people comment on. They see me do the little pump. It's like the tiger fist bump, but other than that. And I'll do a. Come on. Occasionally in tennis, but other than that. Speaking of tennis. We don't have the time for this right now, Adam. But I played my brother this weekend in a three hour banger, three sets. He wants to play you badly and he's not happy. But I paid you a huge compliment. I said I think you're better than him. He is not happy.
A
I gotta tell you, I was watching when I went back and watched the stream of our match, I was a little rewatched again. No, no, no, no. I know when everyone, you know, right after we did it, I was a little insulted at the way he spoke about me. So I would love to buy him intense.
B
There's a little bad beef there. Yeah. You know, we may get an Azer Schneier brothers doubles match would be. I kind of want to see before that in Azer. Adam Azer versus Matt Schneider match.
A
All right. Yeah, I might, I might want to destroy him. And last comment here before we take a break. Dan is totally drinking a pumpkin spice latte.
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Black coffee with butter in it with Irish Kerrygold Irish butter in it.
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All right, we're gonna take a break. News and notes. Joe Burrow news. Aaron Jones news, defensive news. Much more snap counts. What did the Patriots do very little of in week two that they did a lot of in week one? We'll be right back with that after this.
C
When did making plans get this complicated?
B
It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the.
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Secure messaging app that brings the whole group together.
C
Use polls to settle dinner plans. Send event invites and pin messages so no one forgets. Mom 60th and never miss a meme or milestone. All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone. Learn more at WhatsApp.com.
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Lowe's knows how to help make your home holiday ready for less. Get select Style Selections vinyl flooring for just $1.99 per square foot and have it installed before before the festivities begin. Our team can help you every step of the way. See a Lowe's Red vest associate or visit lowe's.comholidayinstall to get started. Lowe's we help you save basic Install only Date restrictions apply. Subject to availability. Install by independent contractors. See Associate for details. Contiguous us only so we have four big topics today. The first one is about the Bengals. So we're going to get to that in probably about five, 10 minutes. But Joe Burrow needs toe surgery. He's going to be out at least three months and can you drop him? I'm obviously. Hopefully you can just stash him in an IR spot. I definitely think you can drop him. I mean you're you're talking about the fantasy playoffs if he comes back and it's minimum three months. So that's just my take. Kevin Stefanski, head coach of the Browns. He brushed off talk of a quarterback change, but I'd be pretty nervous about it. They got Green Bay Detroit in the next two weeks. There's a good chance they're owing for, you know, I don't think Flacco is playing all that well, but I didn't watch the tape from this week. He was. I guess he was fine in Week one. His touchdown this past week should have been an interception. It's not out of the question. Let's just put it that way that the that the Browns make a change sooner rather than later. Justin Fields has a concussion to Rod Taylor. Would start at Tampa Bay if Fields is out. Aaron Jones hamstring injury we haven't got. I haven't seen anything on that. Carolina's offensive line is two injured interior offensive linemen Rob Hunt and Austin Corbett. They get the Falcons upcoming San Francisco left guard Ben Bartch left in the first half. He did not return. I mentioned two Vikings offensive linemen. One of them was Darasaw's replacement. They left with head injuries. They're getting ready for the Bengals this week. Dallas center Cooper BB is out. I think it was six to eight weeks. Tough one for them at Chicago, then Green Bay, then the jets, then the Panthers. It's not the worst schedule other than Green Bay, but that's a tough one for the for the Cowboys. And Tennessee was already playing without starting right tackle JC Latham. They lost right guard Kevin Zeitler to an elbow injury. I don't know the severity there. Big stuff on defense would be the Cardinals were absolutely decimated. They lost at least three defensive backs and a defensive lineman in this game and they get the 49ers next week. So that's keep that in mind for the Niners. They could have a much easier matchup against the Panthers. Pittsburgh, some some injuries there. Alex Highsmith. That's a big loss for them. Couple of injuries for Baltimore's defense as they get ready for Detroit and that's mostly it. The jets edge rusher Edge rusher Jermaine Johnson left with an ankle injury. I'm not sure if he returned and that'll do it for the news and notes. Now listen football fans. You got to bring that playoff energy to your pro football bets all season long because this Pro Football boost pack from BetMGM gives you three ways to boost your payout on a winning bet. Just log into your BetMGM account to receive your boost pack. Then place any pro football bet and apply one of the tokens. Make sure to bet up to the minimum stake odds and legs specified on the token. If your boosted bet hits, you'll score a bigger payout. From opening kickoffs to game winning drives, this pro football Boost pack is your ticket to unforgettable moments this season. Don't wait on the sidelines. Join the action with BetMGM. All right, some snap counts here. I've been talking a lot. If you want me to go through the snap counts, I can.
B
If there's anything that's I like a snap count.
C
I've got a fun step for you before we do it then, if you want a quick break.
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Yes, do it.
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Guess which quarterback had the only off target rate that was worse than JJ McCarthy and Michael Pinnicks in week two.
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The only off target rate Worse.
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I'm gonna say Bo Nix.
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That's a great guess. Caleb again.
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Okay, this quarterback also had the lowest catchable target rate in Week 1 on throws from a clean pocket that traveled five or more yards past the line of scrimmage.
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Wow. And it's not Caleb and it's not two.
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It's on a Violoa.
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That's a good guess. We haven't gotten it right though. Or Jacob's playing games with us.
A
I give up.
C
It's Patrick Mahomes.
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Oh, no, not again. What is. I didn't. I only watched. We'll talk about it in a bit. I. Only because for the show, it's one of the big questions. I only watched the Philly offense. I didn't watch any of the Chiefs offense versus Philly D. But wow, what is going on?
A
Yeah, I don't know. I. Well, obviously he's got pretty garbage receivers.
B
It doesn't matter. They're not getting open much from a clean pocket.
A
Well, if no one's open, what are you gonna do?
B
You still shouldn't be off targeting. He's just missing.
C
He's just been missing for the past two years and two games.
B
He really has been missing for a long time now. It's hard to just blame it on the receivers.
A
Well, he's been good for fantasy 24.1 yesterday in passing touchdown, 28 points in week one was.
B
He has two rushing touchdowns already, right?
A
Yeah, he does. That's why. And not only that, he's got about 130, 133 rushing yards. 123 rushing yards, whatever it is saving.
B
His fantasy season so far. But that's crazy. Jacob. When we went over the numbers. This is. We don't need to do this right now. Just a quick note. We went over the numbers this off season, Jacob. I. We did a quarterback ranking show. Mahomes was just bad across the board, like every possible way from a charting standpoint. It was crazy.
A
That's weird.
C
Don't let this like take away from the fact that like, you know, the off script plays are heroic. He's like keeping them in games when there's literally nothing else on the offense that's working at all, even a little bit.
B
Yeah, the run game's so bad, man, that's like the craziest part to me. Reed usually can design stuff in the run game and the screen game. There's just none of that.
A
Well, hopefully Xavier Worthy is back in Week 3. The Giants look like a tonic for a bad offense, but if you're hearing all this stuff, it might make you consider trading. Trading Patrick Mahomes. What does he get? What does he have before Rasheed Rice comes back? So it's four more games. It's the Giants, Ravens, Jaguars and Lions. I'd call that a neutral schedule. A couple of good ones in there, a couple of potentially bad ones in there, and then maybe you're just hoping Rashid Rice comes back and helps him out. All right. Some snap count stuff. I was excited about Hunter Henry because Austin Hooper barely ran any routes in week one. Well, that totally changed and Hooper had a 47% route participation rate. So Henry had a horrible game and he's back to being Hunter Henry. The snap shares for New England were just weird. Henry did play the most snaps of the skill Position players Kshon Booty 72% Henry 85% Mac Holland 65% Ramandre 65 Hooper 62 Diggs Only 52% so still working his way in there and they barely went to three receiver sets. The Patriots had the third lowest rate of three or more receiver sets ahead of only Atlanta and Seattle who were just running the air out of the ball. So I don't know, that was kind of a game plan thing because week week one the Patriots were 14th in three receiver, three or more receiver sets rate and this year, this week they are third lowest. They also had a 2.7 blitz rate in week two, which was the lowest after having the fourth highest blitz rate in week one. Enough about the boring Patriots. Travis Hunter played 59 of the snaps on offense and 62% on defense. That's not great. Cam Scatter Boo played seven more snaps than Tyrone Tracy and he dominated carries in the second half. It's what do you think is the writing on the wall, Dan? We have a new RB one in New York.
B
I don't think so. I think what happened there. We talked about this on the podcast last night. Tyrone Tracy made some comments after the first game and called out the coaching staff in the play calling said that not only he, but everyone on the team felt like they should have ran the ball in the red zone on that weird series where they kind of attempted one to Marcus Bow, the backup tackle. Immediately his role changed and he was used on kickoff returns in Week two. I think it might be a short doghouse, but I think he's in the doghouse for those comments. I think table probably behind the scenes made it clear if you're gonna have questions with the play calling, you keep it in house. You never go to the media with it. So we'll see. I want to hope that Scatterboo will get more of a run. I like them both. I think they're both talented players, but Scatter Boo is just such a fun watch. We'll get to him a little bit more later.
A
DeAndre Swift had a late goal line touchdown, but Kyle menon Guy played 41% of the snaps. They had a, you know, more of a split than I guess you'd like to see But Swift did have a good game, a decent game. This is Jacob, what do you make of this? Look at the Seattle Seahawks wide receivers, specifically jsn, who's one of the stories of fantasy right now and their snap Shares. You know JSN, 77% of the snaps in week one in a loss and 68% in week two in a win. They just don't keep these guys on the field that much. A.J. barner, the tight end, was the only player who played more than 70% of the snaps. The only skill position player played more than seven more than 70% of the snaps for the Seahawks yesterday. And JSN is leading all wide receivers in target per out run rate in target share there we have three wide receivers right now who have a target share over 40%. It's JSN, Garrett, Wilson, maybe Puka and that's really, really rare. Oh, Zay Flowers. First three wide receivers with a 40% target share or higher in the first two weeks of the season since 2018. But I thought the snapshare for the, for JSN in particular was odd and I'm wondering if we're looking at a sell high window here.
C
Maybe it's, it's hard to say that because he's playing so well and we know that he's capable of doing this and everything lines up as this year three ascension. But it is interesting what you're pointing out that the playing time thing is definitely worth keeping an eye on. And it's everyone. It's the way Clint Kubiak has handled the offense so far. Like even Kenneth Walker played less than Charbonnet this week which was strange because he was playing so well. Kenneth Walker, I said Basho dude has the highest success rate at running back. It's actually Walker if you look at, you know, if you up the qualifier number and I think that's relevant because everybody looks at Walker as a low success rate guy. You know he's big plays are bust but that's not what he's been so far. He's played really well but still he had like a 40 snap rate this week. The other thing with Kubiak is he's not using pre snap motion and stuff like that. A lot of these like fantasy cheat codes, efficiency boosters, he's not using as much as he had in the past with New Orleans. And so I don't really know what to think. I think it's possible that we're, it's just kind of this weird ease in with this offense and we're going to see things get expanded and become more normal going forward.
A
Ken Walker said after the game. Every time I touch the ball I'm trying to score. And that's the problem to me with Ken Walker. It's, it's the good and the bad, but I think unfortunately too much bad because he was pretty crap in, in week one. He was really good. He scored on third and goal from the 19 yard line. I think kind of caught the Steelers off guard. But he was obviously terrific in this game and Charbonnet really struggled. But I, I don't love that quote. I think that's what's gotten Ken Walker in trouble. But all right, a couple more snap count things. Evan Ingram played 43% of the snaps. I don't know if it's an injury thing, but I think he's quite droppable.
C
It's what it was in Week one in the first half before he got hurt too. Like that was just how they rolled it out. This is a. Sean Payne's another guy who does a lot of this, kind of rotating a bunch of guys in there.
A
Yeah, but Troy Franklin got a lot of snaps. He went to 83% of the snaps in this game and had a big game. And Jonathan Taylor played 93% of the snaps. Good stuff there.
B
Wow.
C
Talk about him.
B
He's. He looks so good in there.
C
That's what I thought of initially, but it was like too obvious and I wanted to talk about Tudin.
A
Okay.
B
Yeah, he.
A
Well, you did it. All right, let's get to our four big topics and let's start with Joe Burrow here and the Bengals so hot fan who we also featured in last week's show said just how cooked are the Bengals rest of season? Dan, what do you think?
B
So I don't think this is as cook situation as it would be for a lot of these other offenses. Like for example like last year with Cooper Rush playing that off offense for the Cowboys and just some of those like limited quarter more limited quarterbacks I should say. But from what I saw and I watched every snap of Jake Browning after got in the game, my takeaways are this is going to be not good news but better news for Jamar Chase because they found a lot of. At least what I thought Zach Taylor was trying to do is find a lot of easy solutions for Browning and a lot of that was just screens and quick hitters to Jamar Chase, which I think they're going to do a lot of and they've done some of the past. I think it's bad news for T. Higgins. Despite T. Higgins catching that touchdown, which he had an unbelievable release off the line of scrimmages, burned the db and it was actually a good ball. There were two or three other one on one shots to Higgins that were just terribly off target. I think this is not good for Higgins personally moving forward Chase Brown, I think it'll be good for him in PPR or okay for him in PPR leagues, but I think the touchdowns will come down. The thing with Browning is like they. After he came into the game, Jacksonville clearly was like, all right, let's see what this guy has. Because for the first time all game, they, they went away from the two high shell that everyone plays against Burrow. And they rotated one, they rotated the other safety down and put the one safety in the middle of the field. And Browning burned them with a deep out route to Chamar Chase. So it's like, all right. And then from that point on, Jacksonville went back to too high. So they're going to play him similar to how they play Jake Joe Burrow. But the problem is Browning just can't make all the throws that Burrow makes. He's late on a lot of throws. His ball placement is nowhere near what Burrows is. So think overall, the passing game will suffer a bit, but he's not, it's not like some of the other backup quarterbacks we have because they actually one, let him run the system that they run. It's the same system. And two, they let him make a lot of aggressive throws. They're not having him check down a lot. So I think for a fantasy standpoint, it won't be a killer, but I would think this is better news for Chase than anyone.
C
Well, I've got some numbers.
A
Yeah. We'll also talk about Chase Brown in this.
B
Yeah.
A
Mr. Between the tackles. Chase Brown apparently is all they do with him. It's so annoying. What do you got? What do you got, Jacob?
C
So over his career, Browning has thrown 14.5% of his targets to running backs, which is right on par with Joe Burrow, 14.6%. So I think we could see more targets for Brown, Chase Brown than we saw this week. And then per Ryan Heath, the XFP for the wide receivers, the expected fantasy points has dropped to a kind of scary range. It's like 11 to 12 XFP per game for Jamar Chase and Tegans across seven games with Jake Browning as a starter, which is not where you want. That's like wide receiver 40 range. These guys are so good that they can exceed that, obviously. But I did want to bring that up that even though Browning has played pretty well in these starts, by and large, the XFP hasn't been super high for the receivers. It's been more like Joe Mixon with a massive XFP number.
B
Yeah.
C
But again with any of this, it's a seven game sample size, so don't, you know, overreact. But like Browning has played pretty well when he's been in on a per drawback basis, everything has been good. They've, they've still operated a pretty pass heavy offense.
B
Right.
C
In terms of pass rate over expectation, it's still been positive. So I think any of these, or maybe even all of these guys could be fine. There will be inconsistent games for Tea against for sure and maybe even for Jamar Chase, but that's the case at wide receiver. You know, for just about anybody. This is about as good as it gets, I think for a backup QB coming in.
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
B
A lot of people thought like, oh, well, sorry Adam, go ahead.
A
No, no. I gave these numbers yesterday, but Jake Browning was on pace for 4,537 yards and 27 touchdowns.
B
Wow.
A
In the seven starts he made, he averaged 8.2 yards per attempt, which is really, really incredible.
B
Yeah, he'll, he'll try. He, he really looks downfield more than you would expect for a backup quarterback.
A
But he also averaged an inter. And he threw three yesterday. He's a little careless, so there's that. They don't, I don't think they would make a change to another quarterback. I think they'll probably ride him out. Yeah. So the numbers weren't great for, for Higgins and Chase last year when they were both healthy. There were only three games where Browning, Chase and Higgins were all healthy. I said last year, I meant 2023. And they weren't great except for one game for Chase. But Tyler Boyd was getting a lot of targets. Tanner Hudson was getting targets. He had a 21.3% target. He actually led the Bengals in target per out run rate when Jake Browning was on the field in 2023. That's Tanner Hudson at 21.3%. Joe Mixon had a 20% target per out run rate. Andre Yoshi was almost 20%. So, you know, Higgins was the one who really suffered. I am worried about Higgins. I don't consider him a must start at this point. I consider him a probably start, but not in a must start. Kind of in the, I guess kind of in the Marvin Harrison Jr. Range or maybe the Jameson Williams range. Or something like that.
B
I think that's fair. And I just want to clarify something Matt Weber says looks more downfield than you would expect a backup to. What does that mean? Just what I mean by that is when I watch a lot of these backup quarterbacks are thrust in the games. They'll take the under. If it's a high, low concept, they'll take the low concept. That's what they do. Jake Browning is taking the high conc like he is attacking downfield at a rate that you don't expect from a back quarterback. When it comes to what aggression, I guess is the best way to describe it. The problem is, as Adam said, it leads to a lot of interceptions and he doesn't have the best arm talent in the world. I don't think this is good news. Some people say this is good news for Chase Brown. Maybe they'll be more run heavy. The Bengals can't run block. They've never been able to run block under Zach Taylor and they have no run scheme. So I don't think they're going to be able to just go to a run game and they don't really use heavy personnel. So it's not like that when they had success in the run game. It's because Burrows spreads them out and they have. They're facing these light boxes. So I don't really foresee that happening, to be honest. But I will say one thing you noted about Boyd, which is interesting, Adam, from watching the tape of this game, you see this had a much bigger role than I expected to after the burrow injury when Browning was in. And so maybe that is something interesting. Maybe you see Vish Andre Yoshivish. Yeah, I think it's Yoshivish.
C
All right.
A
I think it's Yoshi.
B
It might be Yoshi Bosh.
C
I think what's good for Chase Brown for fantasy is touchdowns and receptions.
B
Right.
C
Like Dan said, the rush is up the middle do not really matter very much. You don't really want a bunch of those.
B
Exactly.
A
And that's all. That's all he does. He has every single running back carry for the Cincinnati Bengals through two games. But no, I mean, so okay, I. I tried to do this yesterday, but if I were drafting again today. Right. Just week three and on.
B
Right.
A
I said Chase would be middle to back half of the first round. No longer my number one overall player.
B
Sure.
A
Higgins balls to. I maybe like the four or five turn somewhere in that range for me. Brown is definitely not around 2 pick anymore. Chase Brown, it just. Yeah, I think he's round four? Almost. Am I overreacting? And he's running like crap. The offensive line stinks and I don't know.
B
I don't think we're gonna score as much. Part of the deal for me for Brown was just a ton of touchdowns for that offense. It sucks because I have Brown everywhere, but. But I kind of, I can't really agree with anything.
A
All right, so let's get some names here. So would you rather have Breeze?
C
Hall.
A
Yeah, Breeze hall or Chase Brown?
B
Boo.
C
Brown.
B
Dpr. I still rather have Brown.
A
I agree. Would you rather have Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet or Chase Brown?
C
Walker.
B
The upside.
C
James Cook clearly over Brown.
A
Oh, yeah.
B
Oh, yeah. James Cook. James Cook over all these guys.
C
Right.
A
Tomorrow maybe I'll ask Omari and Hampton. But yeah, like Chuba Hubbard versus Chase versus Chase Brown is a question we have here.
B
I think still Brown, I could see.
C
Chewbald scoring him very easily. I think there's more upside with Brown, especially in any sort of PPR format. That's a good one. ETN over Brown, huh? It's Brown for me.
B
Brown, he still has, like you said, Adam, just crazy volume in this offense and for PPR leagues. He should. Like you said, Browning will check down to him.
A
I don't know.
B
Just.
A
Okay. All right, that's, that will be our first topic. So make sure you get Jake Browning in a super flexig. In fact, I, I, I don't know that I'm gonna get him because I think someone's probably going to go close to 100% and I am not going to do that. But I think I'm going to drop Joe Flacco for, for Jake Browning because I think Flacco is going to lose his job, you know, within the next month. Has a good chance to.
B
This is super flexible. Has there been any comments on that or you just think that.
A
I mean, they asked Stefanski about it. I said this earlier and Stefanski brushed it off. It's not on him. It's not on him. But their next two games, I think, are Green Bay and Detroit, so I'm pretty sure they're going to be. Oh, and four, Dylan Gabriel came in and threw a touchdown yesterday. Green Bay, Detroit, Minnesota, Pittsburgh. I mean, it's not like they have any easy wins in that stretch. So I think, you know, it's going to, it's going to happen at some point and I think Browning will keep his job. All right, let's take another break and talk about rookie running backs and I'll play the sad trombone Trombone noise When we come back. Popsicles, sprinklers, a cool breeze.
B
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A
A brand new phone with Verizon.
B
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A
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B
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C
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C
This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Checking off the boxes on your to do list is a great feeling.
B
And when it comes to checking off coverage, a State Farm agent can help you choose an option that's right for you. Whether you prefer talking in person on the phone or using the award winning app, it's nice knowing you have help finding coverage that best fits your needs. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is.
C
There.
A
Sat trombone for the rookie running backs. Someone wrote this and I'm sorry I don't have the name, I forgot but we all got too excited and these rookie running backs other than Genti were way overdrafted. Cam Scatter Boo, maybe Baja Tutin look like the best bets and their ADP was basically free. So who are the bad ones so far? Clearly Henderson and RJ Harvey have have been busts and Quinton Judkins I actually thought looked pretty good. He only had one good run in this game. It was late but it shows showed some niftiness in his first game. First carries he's had and how long. I mean other than a little bit of practice this week. So quinton Judkins had 61 yards rushing in the game. He had like 12 carries or something. So anyway, Jacob, where are you on the state of the rookie running backs which by the way we'll have to wait until the first two off the board play tonight to really assess it. But the state of the rookie running backs for you.
C
Yeah, tune for sure. Like I feel good about. I thought Judkins looked good. He's very much committal. Like when he makes a decision he's just kind of going with it and sometimes he misses stuff but also like he has some really good runs. Scatterboo looked good. I'm. I'm excited to hear you guys takes. I thought Dan's insight on him and Tracy was definitely important there. I think the two people really want to hear about is Henderson and Harvey. Right. That's who people are worried about that's who pushed so far up draft boards. So I did some digging historically to see what I could find in terms of comparisons for these two. So the parameters I set were running backs drafted rounds two or earlier since 2000 to have between 10 and 20 opportunities. So that's a rush or a target in their first two career games. And it's a pretty big group. 27 running backs that have been drafted rounds one or two to have 10 to 20 opportunities in their first two games. So they're playing a meaningful role, but they're definitely not featured. Like some of these running backs are right out the gate. Those running backs, the highest score of that group was 250pbr points out of 27 guys since 2000. So that for context was like running back 11ish, that kind of range last year. The James Connor Chuba Hubbard range last year is what 250 ppr points is. Seven out of those 27 running backs or 26 of them hit 200 or more ppr points. So that's like Tony Paul or DeAndre Swift last year running back 19, 20ish. So you got like a 25 chance of being a, a useful fantasy player with this type of a start to a career. But There were also seven that did not even hit 100 PPR points, which is like the Ray Davis line. So 25 chance they're going to be useful, 25 chance they're going to be completely irrelevant. We're talking about Henderson and Harvey and potential outcomes here. If you look at games 13 through 16 of this initial sample size. So you're like the playoff, the fantasy playoff run, you know what I'm saying here? 12 out of these 27 players, so 44 of them averaged 12 and a half PPR points per game or more during that stretch. So you're looking at almost a 50 chance of a top 24 type of outcome during the fantasy playoffs for these players like Henderson, like Harvey, that were drafted in round two and had 10 to 20 opportunities across their initial two games. The top scorers from that group were 20, 19, 18.6, 18.4, 17.5, 15.7 PPR points per game across games 13 through 16. So the fantasy playoff stretch, basically you had some pretty big numbers there. 20, 19, 19, those are close to high end RB1 production. If you look at not just even like the whole season, but like specifically the fantasy playoff stretch run, getting up to that 20 range is like you're a top five or six type of performer at the running back position. And so there were multiple of those seasons and There were like seven seasons that were above 16 points, which is like a top 12 running back.
A
Do you have the names?
C
I tweeted it out if you, if you want to find it or I can try to find it here while I'm. I'm talking and share my screen. So keep the light on for Henderson and Harvey, especially in PPR formats that they could end up delivering that kind of production during the fantasy playoffs. Overall, it wasn't. The group wasn't that good for fantasy. I think most of the. The big hits among rookie running backs for a full season. We're getting a featured role right out the gate. Right? Which makes sense, right? So with a player like this, there's probably based off what history shows us, there's going to be growing pains and you might have to like supplement their lack of production early on to get you to the playoffs. But by that point you've got close to a 50 chance that they're going to be pretty productive.
B
You know how they have those memes of people who are like friends groups sitting around drinking with their buddies, watching football and just naming former players and having fun doing it. This list, I just looked it up. Jacob's list of players is like, is. Is exactly that. Eddie Lacey, Jamal Lewis, Willis McGahey, Rashard Mendenhall. Remember?
C
Oh, yeah.
B
Bernard. Stephen Jackson. A classic. D' Angelo Williams.
A
Beanie Wells.
B
Beanie, yes. TJ Duckett. I loved TJ Duck and the way he ran his style. Felix Jones, a Jerry Jones favorite, but that was during his Dallas years. He better with them. Amir Abdullah, Carlos Hyde. Donald Brown. Remember Donald Brown? Remember damn it, Donald from Peyton Manning when he could pick up that blitz or whatever.
A
So just let me, let me just jump in here, right, Because I gave the stat last week and there's a big difference between out of the gate workloads for round one running backs and round two running backs. I mean, huge difference. As I said, over the previous 10 seasons, I only counted three running backs that were drafted in round two of the NFL draft and got big work in week one. TJ Yeldin, Dalvin Cook and Jonathan Taylor. And there were guys though, that if you want to have some Hope, Breeze Hall, 21 carries in his first three games and then they just became really run heavy and he got a ton of work the next, the next few games and then tore his acl, unfortunately. Even Jameer Gibbs. Now, Jameer Gibbs needed an injury, really, but Jamir Gibbs had 14 carries in his first two games. He had nine catches. So whatever that was. 14 plus 20, 23 touches in the first two games for Jira Gibbs. But I, it really didn't start happening for him until Montgomery got hurt for a second time. Who else was there? There was one other guy that. Oh, Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon was a second round pick. They had Jeremy Hill. Joe Mixon had 17 carries combined in his first two games and then they turned him loose. I also noticed some of these players it takes until there's a bye week. So let's take a look. I didn't have this one, sorry. When the bye weeks are for Travion Henderson. Oh, no problem. His bye weeks in Week 14 for RJ Harvey, that's bad news. RJ Harvey, hopefully his bye week is early. His bye week is week 12, so that's not great. But I look, I have much more faith in Henderson than Harvey because I have much more faith in Dobbins than Ramon Dre. This was a really good game for Andre Stevenson against the joke of a defense, a junior varsity defense that basically every single possession the Colts had in week one they scored on. And the Patriots kept that up for some, if not all of the first half like the Dolphins have so far stunk. Dobbins is not a bad player, you know. Now if you want to have more hope. Dobbins was very good the first two weeks of the season last year and then all of his explosiveness seemed to. And he got hurt. But you know, it's not completely uncommon for round two rookie running backs. In fact it's. It's extremely common for them to have slow starts. I just don't know when it's going to happen, especially for Harvey. Might happen for Henderson, but Harvey I'm very worried about.
B
Yeah, so go ahead. Jacob, do you have something?
C
Henderson looks really good. I like Harvey. It's been inconsistent. There's been some ups, but Henderson is like, like pretty much every play. He looks pretty good. He looks like a good pro who offers something unique that the backfield doesn't really have. And you know that fantasy point per touch metric that I gave earlier that Tootin looked so good in? Henderson is right up there near him. He's like in the same range as like Devon Hn and Jameer Gibbs and James Cook who are like always at the top of that range. And so with more touches, I think he's, he's the most likely clearly to me to become One of these 18, 20 ish point per game scores down the stretch. It is tough that his bye week's not till week 14 though. Like, Tutin's got a week eight by and so you could have like a whole second half where he's like got the rookie bump after the buy.
A
So go ahead.
B
Yeah, go ahead, Adam.
A
No, no, I was actually going to throw it to you.
B
Yeah. I just want to give some thoughts on the rookie running backs because I haven't had a chance yet to, but I want to of dive in on these. And thankfully we have Jacob Gibbs who cut up all the tape of them from this week and the past week. So I just got to watch through all of the tape and I'll start by saying this my first take on all of the backs and we don't have Omarion Hampton included here. He's playing tonight. We'll see what happens there at a great role in week one. Same thing goes for Genti, but of all the other rookie backs, Bashel Tutin looks by far and away the most comfortable running the football right now. He looks by far and away like watching him press those outside zone runs and then cut it back and understanding where the cutback lane is. It looks like he's played in the NFL for, for four or five years. And that's not, that's not it. On some of the power gap scheme, like he'll make a jump cut. He'll do. He'll. As Jacob said earlier when he broke down the stats, he's not having any negative runs. And then I'll watch somebody like Harvey, who I love coming out. It just doesn't look like he has a great feel right now for that run scheme. And I said from the start I thought I was buying on Harvey and Dobbins because I thought the Broncos would be a dominant run game. They just haven't looked as dominant as I thought they'd look in the run game. So that's kind of impacting things as well. And Tyler Beatty, is it bidet or Beatty? I don't even really know. I would like to have a bidet in my house. I heard those things are great, but I have. But he has a role. He did. He made a great play in this game. And then you saw him get a couple more snaps, so it's like he doesn't have a role. Henderson, I was never buying at cost. I always thought, why would I buy this guy at cost when he's in a Josh McDaniels offense? We know that rookies come along slow in these offenses, but Scatterboon Judkins, Judkins is the interesting one to Me, they just threw him right into the mix. Like no if, ands or buts. And he looked like exact. Like he looked like you ex. What do you expect it for him to be like their lead back or somebody? They want to be their lead back. But obviously a suspension is coming at some point, so I don't know when that will be and how that impacts fantasy. And then there's Scatterboo who, you know, just hasn't really had much to work with. The Giants have, in my opinion, the worst run blocking offensive line in the NFL. So to me, of all these guys, Tutin is the one that just looks by far and away the best or at least the most comfortable.
C
I don't think you can overstate the like not taking any negative plays and gaining at least 2 yards after contact on every single rush. Like he's looked like, like a mix of Henderson and Harvey or something like that where he's finishing every run really strong, but he's also not taking any negative plays. But he also has more elusiveness to his game than Henderson does, who doesn't really even try that often to make people miss. He just like finishes through them. Tune can kind of do all of it.
B
Yeah.
A
Facial Tootin for the win. All right, let's go to Wizzy McWhizzers here. And by the way, everybody mentioning in the chat that we skipped Caleb Johnson. Yeah, he's, he's, he's buried. But, but boy, they have had a brutal run game. You got Warren and. And Greenwell averaging combined maybe about 3.6 yards per carry.
B
Longest run for Arthur Smith offense, by the way.
A
Longest run for The Steelers is 13 yards so far for a running back. And for the Giants and their horrible run blocking, that, that will get better if Andrew Thomas is back, which could be as soon as week three.
C
If I can share my screen real quick. The people need their Bill content. Just real quick. They need to hear about Bill.
A
Right, I forgot about him.
C
Running back five here and fantasy points per touch to Corey Crosby. Merit, he's coming.
A
I'm actually pretty excited for him, I think might take a little while, but I think it makes so much sense for him to start getting a lot of work now with the unfortunate Austin Eckler injury. All right, so Wizzy McWhizzers says any good buy low wide receivers. He brings up Cortland Sutton, who had a really bad game. One catch for six yards on four targets. Brian Thomas Jr. It's been basically the talk of fantasy Twitter and Marvin Harrison Jr. 2 catches for 27 yards on five targets after a nice game at New Orleans in week one. Any good buy? Low wide receivers, guys? Jacob.
C
I'll sign off on btj. Of course, we don't know, like, what's going to happen mentally or whatever is going on there. Like, sometimes players get the yips or whatever and the vibes are extremely weird there. I could not. I haven't got to the film yet. I've started to. I could not believe how negative people were being online about btj.
A
Well, did you see all the alligator arms and stuff like that?
C
I know, I know, but it's just like, this guy is the man. Like, he's the truth. He's everything. Like, we. Everybody loves this guy so much, and people are like, get this guy off my team. Like, like, really, Brian Thomas Jr. Like, I'll take him. That. That seems crazy.
A
I agree. He had 12 freaking targets and Travis Hunter's playing two thirds of the snaps. And, you know, we don't know what his role is going to be. I think. Look, I, I looked at four receivers. Jamar Chase had 10 catches for 97 yards through the first two weeks of last year. Drake London had 69 yards, one touchdown to the first two weeks of last year. Cortland Sutton had 64 yards. Terry McLaurin had 39 yards through the first two weeks of Last year. Now, what did they all have in common? Chase, London, Sutton and McLaurin, first two weeks of 2024. Their quarterbacks did not get off to good starts.
B
Right.
A
Lawrence did just have a pretty good game, and I think that's what's concerning, at least. Okay. I mean, he didn't have that great of a game. Like, if you're breaking down the film, but for fantasy purposes, he had a pretty productive game. And Brian Thomas Jr. Had some drops. He also nearly, you know, he had an end zone target, so that's a little concerning. But I also think about AJ Brown, who we're about to talk about. Jalen Hurts is averaging like 140 passing yards with no touchdowns through two games, you know, so take a look at quarterbacks who are off to slow starts and those and their wide receivers. That's where you should be looking right now, I think. But I also think Brian Thomas Jr. Is just way too good for this crap to continue. I, I'm. I think he's going to bounce back. I'm confident in him and people are really angry. And yes, as you said, Jacob, get him off my team. That's a common theme right now for Brian Thomas Jr.
C
I've got a few more quick ones. Terry McLaurin, you mentioned he had a 38% first read target rate in week two, so I love to see that. I was worried it might be a slow ease in because the chemistry kind of hasn't been there but it seems like everything should be fine there and then I think Drake London is a really good buy. Especially like after being on an island night where you kind of need something from him to like help you win your matchup. Yeah. And he doesn't do it like I I could see people being you could you get London easier than you should be able to which that was my.
A
Number one London or okay, sorry, would you rather have London or Brian Thomas.
B
Jr London me London.
C
I had London hired going I had.
B
London hire going into and I I am actually not as confident as you guys are in the BTJ Bounce back. I just watched a lot of this Jags offense. It does not like Lawrence does not look good out there and their connection looks horrible. And by the way, a lot of his production last year was with Mac Jones.
A
I know, but are we really thinking that like that that this can improve? It's their second game.
B
I think obviously he's going to be better if I want to clarify what I mean, I don't think he's going to be this droppable player. I just don't think he's going to be anywhere near what we need him to be for fantasy. Mostly because I don't think this Liam Cohen passing game looks anything like the Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay passing game last year. And I'm not sold it's going to get there.
A
Well, he doesn't have a Great Brian Thomas Jr also doesn't have a great schedule coming up. He's got Houston, San Francisco, Kansas City, Seattle and the Rams and then a buy. So yeah, I guess the best buy low before.
C
Oh, sorry.
A
Yeah. No, go, go, go.
B
No, it's too late now. The best by low. I made like 15 to 17 trade offers for him last week and couldn't get any done was Devonte Adams and Jacob has some stats on that, but he's just an absolute stuff blood again.
A
It's how much you want to trust Matthew Stafford playing out being healthy because. Yeah, yeah, that's the only issue I think.
B
Why are we just like, why does Stafford have that label of like we just gotta stay away from this when there's like actual injured players in the NFL right now?
A
Because I. Well, for what it's worth, a lot of the Twitter doctors seemed Pretty concerned about his back.
B
Great. The Twitter doctors.
A
Even he was like Evan H. Ham.
B
Was supposed to miss. We can't keep relying on Twitter doctors.
A
I'm not relying on them, but.
B
But obviously know if I want to cite them, obviously they know everything. They're not in the building.
A
They know everything.
B
Yeah, they're Twitter doctors.
A
All right, let's. Let's go to our next topic here. It's from Black Rose. Well, actually, just wait, sorry. Let's address Cortland Sutton. Yeah. Low on him.
B
Yeah, I'm, I'm definitely. I think he's definite by low.
A
Marvin Harrison Jr. No, no, no.
B
I. I have to give up on my. I love Marvin. His tape in college was so good. But yikes to what? I saw this Pat this week. I mean, how do you not torch that defense?
A
Well, he drew about a 40 yard pass interference penalty and he got an end zone target that was knocked away. So he and Sutton are both getting end zone targets. If the end zone target to Cortland Sutton from Bo Nix was. I don't know if it was a route or not, but it just wasn't even close to connecting. And then Sutton was open on a crosser and Nicks overthrew him for an interception. Nick's didn't have a very good game, I think in week two. Yeah, but, but I, you know, look, I would buy low on Harrison, I guess, if, if I still. I value him kind of like T. Higgins. Like I said earlier, I still think he's around 5ish guy. You know, he's a. He's a guy that I'm probably gonna start most weeks. I don't think he's going to win you your fantasy league. I think that's just not an volume.
B
Because he's going to get to eight to 10 touchdowns, I think.
A
Yeah.
B
And that's all right.
C
54. First read target rate for Trey McBride in week two. Highest of any player at any position. So it's like we tried, we tried one week with Marv and right away we're back to this.
A
All right, from Black Rose. Are the Philly receivers safe starts? When Philly has no passing game whatsoever.
B
I don't think they can be considered safe starts. Right. I mean, look, they threw 95 yards passing this game and won the football game. I said this take, it was my hot take of week one. I said, I think the Chiefs, the Eagle season gonna look a lot like the Chief season last year. And so far, so good on that take. I mean, they don't need to throw the ball to win games. It's clear and obvious. And by the way, like, as far as just what they actually tried to do in the passing game, I tweeted about this. There's a few tweets if you guys want to find it. I don't think I can bring it up now and I don't think we can run the film on here. But I mean, the passing concepts, the route combinations are so much worse looking than they were with Kellen Moore. They took a huge step back. There was even a point late in the game where the Eagles are running the same pass concept to the field side. And the Chiefs, they'd run it so often in the game that the Chiefs guess the route. Like they play. They. They switched off perfectly on the receivers, the two DBAT DBs for the Chiefs, and there's no safety up over the top and just guess the routes and got there before the receivers. That was ugly to see. I mean, there's also just a slew of. Just not a lot of volume here. Like, guess how many pass attempts. Guess how many drop backs I should say the Eagles passing game had in the third quarter of this game.
C
None.
A
They had.
B
Well, that's crazy. In the full quarter, they had two. They had two total drop backs. One was a third and long all out blitz from Spags that he just heaved up there, Hertz, and the other was like a third and 11 that he like took the underneath check down throw to. I mean, everything in this passing game, dude, is underneath. They're just running quick game concepts. Hertz is just throwing quick game underneath. It looks horrible out there. And this is, despite the pass protection, looking amazing. Some of these plays, Hertz is just sitting back there and no one is, I guess, open on these route combinations. Or Hertz is just not looking deep on these route combinations. But they don't need them to. They're winning football games without it. So, like, what's gonna change? Like, is it just like the Chiefs last year? Everyone's like, no, no, it's gonna change. Like, they're gonna eventually open it up. They eventually get the pass game going. They want to get it, but they won games without doing it. So why would anything change here for the Eagles?
A
They've won something like 21 games in a row. 20 or 21 games in a row with Jalen Hurts, the only game they lost, right, with Hertz leaving with injury. So this was the first. First, if you're watching the screen, this was the first play of the game for the Eagles and. Or this is the first pass play of the game and that's A.J. brown wide open. And Jalen Hurts fumbled there. They recovered it, but that was really like the only shot they had of A.J. brown getting a big play. Yeah, my.
B
So much underneath with Brown.
A
Yeah, it is. I mean, look, Jalen hurts is averaging 5.6 yards per attempt. That is. Is unbelievably awful. He's been 7.2 to 8 yards per attempt in each of his first five NFL seasons. So I mean we should probably only count that last four. Cause he didn't play much. But whatever. 7.2 to 8 yards per attempt. That's good. He hasn't thrown a touchdown yet on 45 pass attempts. I get that there could be concept issues. They had issues in 2023 when Brian Johnson was their offensive coordinator. And what did A.J. brown do that year? I don't have the stats in front of me, but now I do. He had 106 catches for 1456 yards though. Sure, because those are great stats.
B
No, the difference is the Eagles defense was terrible that year and they believe they fired the coordinator. The defense is amazing right now. This was my whole argument I made this entire off season about why we can't just assume the Eagles pass volume is going to go up because the defense is too good for it to go up. They don't need to throw the football to win games. And that's clear. And they, I mean they're throwing a little bit, they're throwing underneath concepts. Everything's quick game. It's like slant flat. It's like, you know, curl flat. Designed to get the, the, the, the defender here. Like it's, it's stuff that can work and move the ball to some extent, but it's essentially all they need. And then they'll take the deep shots when it's there. I mean they connected on one to Devonte Smith. That was. That ball should have been thrown back pylon. I guess it's an okay throw. It looked wildly under thrown to me. Some of the other throws are bad. What they need to do more of because they hit it once. Adam and Jacob, they hit a big screen to Devonte Smith in the. The talent they have on the offensive line. They need to throw more of these quick hitting bubble screens to Devonte Smith and even A.J. brown in my opinion, to get some passing yards here. I don't know how else to get.
A
Listen, I. Okay, here's the deal. The question was can we trust them? No, you cannot trust Devonte Smith when Dallas Goddard plays. I Think that's pretty trust A.J.
B
Brown.
A
But you can definitely. I think you can. They threw for 101 yards yesterday. I do. We really think the Eagles are this bad. This is the worst, not bad.
B
It's not a matter of bad. It's that they don't need to throw.
A
But. But they're going to do better than this. I mean, I mean. All right, we had a bad stretch last year for A.J. brown. It was weeks six through 15. It's a lot of games in that stretch. Jalen Hurts averaged 22 and a half past attempts per game, which is exactly what he did last yesterday, I think. Okay, they went 10, 0, ran the ball all the time. A.J. brown averaged 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game. That's not great for him, but it's still a must start player. And you know it's not. He's not going to return second round value at that rate. That's more like third round value, maybe early fourth, but that, you know, he was on pace for only 114 targets, but he turned it into a 1400 yard pace with seven touchdowns. So the fact is A.J. brown every year of his career has been one of the most efficient wide receivers in football. Right now he is averaging 0.8 yards after the catch with a low with the lowest eight out of his career. I just feel like there might be some underlying issues this and that, but this is A.J. brown we're talking about here. And Jalen Hurts is better than people give him credit for and I think he'll turn it around. Now I am worried that he's not going to be nearly as good as I thought. But I do think you buy low on A.J. brown because he's A.J. freaking brown.
C
That's, that's where I'm at, is I'm fine buying low, especially if it's like cheap super low.
B
Yeah.
C
Brown was wide receiver 12 and fantasy points per game last year. Devonte Smith was wide receiver 15. Of course there's context here. What Dan is bringing up about Kell Moore not being there anymore is important, but it's like they're so good that they will give you good weeks with the bad ones and will probably be near where you drafted them as like a floor. And then there is, because they're so good, there is this ceiling if things don't go the way that we've seen, if they're right, ends up being more passing for whatever reason or if any of their teammates get hurt, which maybe A.J. brown's already dealing with an injury. I Don't really know. That's something that people have speculated on.
A
Well, he was. He had a hamstring injury going in. I think it was hamstring going into the year. People didn't really love what he looked like in week one. I personally thought he looked fine in.
B
Week two, but I'm not fine. And we too.
A
Yeah, I'm not an expert on that.
C
But no yards after the catch, Matt Harmon thought that he looked like a decoy in terms of the way that they used him in week one. He wasn't moving around and getting in the slot and stuff like that as much. He was mostly just working down the field.
B
So that's a Kellen Moore issue, though, with this. Maybe. Yeah.
A
Well, the slot rate is 5% this year.
B
AJ pass game looked from. I'm not saying from a hurt standpoint, from an offensive play calling and design standpoint, looked horrific in week two to me.
C
If you can get Devonte Smith for cheap, I'm totally into that. And I'm even fine with Brown taking a shot on it.
B
Super cheap. Yeah, I. I made a trade, and you guys can judge it. I made a trade with Shout Out Audi. He listens to these episodes. He offered me this past week, A.J. brown and Aaron Jones for Keon Coleman, Ricky Piersoll Ball and Trey Benson, and I accepted that trade. How do you feel about that trade?
C
Yep, done deal.
A
I don't love it now that Jones has a hamstring.
B
Yeah, well, this is before Jones's hamstring injury.
A
I think that was right. I think that was a good trade. Yeah, we'll see.
B
I don't know. It just doesn't feel good. Watch. I. I thought it was a good trade, and then I watched this game, and it's the Chiefs. The Chiefs have a good defense. Bags is blitzing. He's putting everybody at the line of scrimmage, and the Eagles don't need to throw. But it just. I don't know, man. It looked so bad the past game.
A
So here's a question. If we're buying low, who can we trade for AJ Brown? So I'll throw out some names. Would you trade Tyreek Hill for AJ Brow Brown?
C
No, I'm fine with it.
A
Would you trade Alvin Kamara for A.J. brown?
C
Yeah.
B
No. No.
A
Okay. I don't think you're gonna see eye to eye here. Would you trade Cam Scatterboo?
B
I mean, I want to. I want to believe in AJ Brown.
C
Jameson Williams or AJ Brown?
A
Brown.
B
AJ Brown. AJ Brown.
A
Would you trade? Oh, this is good.
B
I don't know that unless the Lions are playing at home or in a dome.
A
I don't know that I'd trade Tarel McMillan for AJ Brown. Am I crazy?
B
I wouldn't win.
C
Yeah, I think I would just hold TMAC and see what we get here.
B
I would take a buco. If somebody said a buka or AJ Brown. I think a buga.
A
Yeah. Not worried about Chris Godwin, in which.
B
Case I shouldn't have probably traded Ricky Pierce over him. But I'm happy to trade Beard. I appreciate Jennings is looking good. A birdie's out and by the time Purdy's back, Ayuk's gonna be playing Debo.
C
Samuel or AJ Brown.
B
Dan Debo. I was super high on D1. I'm so mad I didn't get Debo in every league. League.
C
George Pickens or A.J. brown. Dan.
B
Oh, give me Pickens, baby.
C
Wow.
A
Wow. All right. Super low.
B
This is getting a little ridiculous. I have to take Brown over these guys. I probably would have to do the deal and it has to get better for Brown. But when and why, like when and why are they going to start throwing the football?
A
Well again I gave you that stretch where he averaged over 15 points per game. They averaged 22.5 pass attempts per game game. So they don't have to A.J. brown, you have to believe, well, in order to trade for him, you have to believe that he can be, you know, a must start guy. Maybe not an elite number one, but a must start guy as at least a number two. If they are a 22 pass temper game type of team which is on the table after tonight's games are going to be they're going to have the third lowest pass attempts in the NFL. So you know, I believe that he could still be, you know, among the leaders in yards per outrun yards per target like he almost always is and maximize it. I don't feel that way about Devonte Smith though. So that's one guy that I would be looking to sell.
B
He says, I'm surprised Dan is still in on Pickens.
A
Why are you surprised he didn't have encouraging game. I you know they threw 55 passes, right?
B
That's the point. If the Giants can force them into that kind of game script, everyone's going to force them into that kind of game script. The Dallas defense is horrific. There's the only worst coordinator I've seen in the NFL to Shane Bowen. The Giants fence coordinator might be Eberfluz. He played and and said it last week. He played 100 zone against the Eagles, everyone's like, oh, it's just the way to defend Jaylen hurts. He played 96 zone against the Giants and Mike Kafka made a fool of him. Just flooding zones and just having over the top shots for neighbors and Wandale Wondale Robinson came into the game. I think you had this stat, Jacob, with never having more than nine, only one time in his whole career having more than 90 air yards, had 160 air yards running wide open up the seam. That defense is an absolute mess from a talent standpoint and from a coaching standpoint. And they are going to be in shootouts all whole year. So yes, I'm still in on Pickens.
C
Love to hear it. I was pretty nervous yesterday around third quarter of the Pickens game.
B
It's not always going to be great, but the game script will be.
A
I don't know where to track this, but I think he's drawn two pass interference penalties near the end zone. Now. He did. He did yesterday, right? Yes, and he definitely did in week one. So Pickens is getting some production production taken off the board. All right, we're gonna get go. Thanks everybody for watching and listening to beyond the Box Score. Talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Field.
B
Paramount Podcasts Carolina basketball isn't just a.
A
Program, it's a legacy. I'm John Henson and we'll be the.
B
Host of Tar Heel 247, a UNC basketball podcast for fans who bleed Carolina Blues. Each week I'll be joined by players.
A
Coaches and insiders for real, unfiltered conversations about the team, the tradition, maybe some.
B
Funny stories and everything in between.
A
No filters, no fluff, just hoop talk. The Tar Heel Ways. Subscribe now to Tar Heel247 at UNC.
B
Basketball Podcast or wherever you get your podcast at.
A
We will have a good time. Let's get ready to go.
Date: September 15, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer (A), Dan Schneier (B), Jacob Gibbs (C)
This dense, insight-packed episode of "Beyond the Box Score" dives into advanced stats and nuanced observations from Week 2 of NFL action, with a central focus on the fallout from Joe Burrow’s injury in Cincinnati, advanced debates about the Vikings and Falcons, rookie running back production (and disappointment), snap counts, and actionable "buy low" wide receiver targets. True to its name, this episode centers on interpreting the deeper stories behind box scores—helping fantasy managers make sharper roster and trade decisions.
[01:19 - 10:50]
Vikings Passing Game Troubles:
Falcons Run Game Dominance:
Notable Quote:
“Bijan himself said... 'Now I'm changing my mind. I'm back to Bijan.' Okay, so now we can successfully call him Bijan again and not feel like we're being inconsiderate.” – Dan, 08:16
[09:33 – 10:46, 59:22 – 69:20]
[30:00 - 38:52]
Notable Quotes:
“Jake Browning is taking the high concept: he is attacking downfield at a rate that you don't expect from a backup quarterback.” – Dan, 35:21
“Chase would be middle to back half of the first round. No longer my number one overall player.” – Adam, 36:58
[40:29 - 52:10]
Memorable Stat:
“He's gained at least two yards after contact on every single touch this regular season.” – Jacob, 13:11
[52:54 - 59:15]
Notable Quote:
"This guy is the man. Like, he's the truth. He's everything. Like, we ... Everybody loves this guy so much, and people are like, get this guy off my team." – Jacob on Brian Thomas Jr., 53:54
[21:26 - 29:59]
Quote: “JSN is leading all wide receivers in target per route run rate ... but the snapshare ... was odd and I'm wondering if we're looking at a sell high window here.” – Adam, 27:46
| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote/Highlight | |-----------|---------|----------------| | 02:28 | Dan | “If that continues and his spray charts look like that, it'll be very, very easy for defensive coordinators to scheme against him [McCarthy]...” | | 07:31 | Adam | “He [Bijan Robinson] was a video game out there—the way he was making guys miss, it was amazing.” | | 13:11 | Jacob | “He's gained at least two yards after contact on every single touch this regular season.” (Bashel Tootin) | | 30:15 | Dan | “They found a lot of easy solutions for Browning and a lot of that was just screens and quick hitters to Jamar Chase...” | | 35:21 | Dan | “Jake Browning is taking the high concept: he is attacking downfield at a rate that you don't expect from a backup quarterback.” | | 53:54 | Jacob | “This guy is the man. Like, he's the truth. He's everything ... and people are like, get this guy off my team.” (Brian Thomas Jr.) |
The hosts blend humor and analytics while navigating injuries, advanced metrics, and tape-study insights to equip fantasy managers with actionable trade and waiver advice. They stress patience with rookies (especially at RB), aggressively targeting overlooked veterans (Drake London, Terry McLaurin), and seizing the moment to buy foundational stars like AJ Brown at relative discounts due to temporary production lulls. For those looking to compete deep into fantasy playoffs, understanding “beyond the box score” shifts like these is vital.
For more granular analysis, hosts urge listeners to check out the full "Beyond the Box Score" audio and video feeds for deeper dives throughout the season.