Fantasy Football Today: Beyond the Box Score — Broncos-Commanders, Bucs Offense, Justin Jefferson, Javonte Williams & More

Episode Date: December 1, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dan Schneier, Jacob Gibbs

Overview

This episode digs into the week's standout fantasy football storylines, focusing on a wild Broncos-Commanders game, updates on key running backs (Javonte Williams, Bucky Irving, Rico Dowdle), the troubling production of top receivers like Justin Jefferson, committee backfields across the NFL, and the enigma that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers offense. The crew also dives deep into under-the-radar players, gives actionable usage stats, and debates start/sit and rest-of-season ranks.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Broncos vs. Commanders: What Did We Learn?

(Starts ~02:10, main talk 02:58–07:40)

• Game Recap:
  Denver outlasted Washington, 27–26, in overtime. Terry McLaurin starred (7 rec, 96 yds, TD, 14 targets).

• Big Takeaway (Jacob):
  R.J. Harvey's red zone dominance:

  “50% of the snaps for Harvey in the red zone compared to 8% for McLaughlin... makes me wonder if this 21 points is really sustainable.” (03:21)

  The Broncos’ offense “just didn’t look good to me. I wanted them to roll and look good and it just didn’t.” — Adam (05:07)

  Caution with Denver options:

  “There’s no must start. To me, Harvey would be the closest one.” — Adam (05:41)

• Corland Sutton usage:
  Encouraging out of the bye, but only 6 targets on 45 Bo Nix attempts.

  “He just doesn’t get targeted that much. It continues here.” — Adam (06:53)

2. Terry McLaurin’s Outlook, WR Usage Trends

(06:54–08:33)

• McLaurin’s big week (31% target share, borderline WR1 rest-of-season if QB upgrade comes).
• McLaurin “looked really good... I’m not excited about him winning a league, but he could certainly be a must start.” — Dan (07:52)
• “He’s only hit that 31% target share six times over the past three years.” — Jacob (08:25)

3. Other Game Notes: RB and Offense Deep Dives

(19:30–28:37)

• Chase Brown (Bengals):
  Snap share split with Samaje Perine is real.

  “If Perine were out, I think Chase Brown could be a top 5 RB; with Perine in, still top 12.” — Adam (20:36)

• Travis Etienne (Jaguars):
  Red-zone role threatened by Bashaultun.

  “32% snap for Tutin, 50% red zone snaps and he had 3 touches to 0 for Etienne... That’s a problem.” — Jacob (22:16)

• Isaiah Pacheco (Chiefs):
  Only 3 of 17 RB runs and 27% snaps in return.

• Steelers Backfield:
  Jalen Warren back to 56% snap share, “trending in the right direction.” — Jacob (24:14)

• Kenneth Walker vs. Zach Charbonnet (Seahawks):
  Walker still with lead role, but Charbonnet sees red zone, short yardage work evening out.

  “I feel all right starting Walker week to week and would be really nervous if you ever have to start Charbonnet.” — Jacob (25:51)

4. Wide Receiver and Tight End Notes: Usage & Trends

(27:28–34:05)

• Kyle Pitts (Falcons):
  93% route participation, career-high YAC; “maybe you can start Kyle Pitts.” — Jacob (27:54)

• A.D. Mitchell (Jets):
  Breakout performance with 39% target share and 58% of air yards.

  “If they can build that rhythm, he could legitimately be fantasy relevant.” — Jacob (31:40)

• David Njoku / Harold Fannin Jr. (Browns):
  Fannin’s tight end usage is “unique” and “so focused on him, you do have a good floor.” — Jacob (33:04)

• Detroit WR Isaac Tesla:
  97% route rate; could matter if Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ankle sidelines him longer.

• Darnell Washington (Steelers):
  “He only had four targets... but I think we might have something here, honestly, with Darnell Washington.” — Adam (34:07)

5. Bucs Offense: Chris Godwin & Emeka Egbuka

(Last portion, 34:40–37:36, with return again at 59:14–60:14)

• Godwin’s usage up:
  “When he’s been on the field last two weeks, Godwin’s had nine targets; Abuka’s had seven; no other player more than three.” — Adam (34:54)
• Emeka Egbuka & Justin Jefferson:
  Heavy target share, but extremely low production since Week 7.

  “Jefferson’s been like 3/10ths of a point better per game than a Egbuka. They’re both really killing you right now.” — Adam (36:58)

• “What’s going on with Baker Mayfield? Can we get a good game from Baker for once?” — Adam (60:06)

6. Buy or Sell: Key Fantasy Takes

(42:12–59:32)

• Justin Jefferson:
  Should he be ranked outside the top-30 WRs?

  “If J.J. McCarthy is forced to miss more time, he should be.” — Dan (42:12)
  The Minnesota passing game has been historically bad.
  “Over the last 10 seasons, that would be the worst [passing yards per game] in the last decade.” — Adam (44:19) “Is he outside the top 30? That seems insane... but that’s basically where we’re at.” — Jacob (48:08)

• Kamani Vidal forcing a RB timeshare in Carolina:
  “Yeah, I've got some Vidal stats that are crazy... Seventh-most yards after contact in a game this year.” — Jacob (48:52)

• Ranking ROS: Bucky Irving, Javonte Williams, Rico Dowdle

  • Jacob: “Bucky, Javonte, Rico. But Bucky and Javonte are very close.” (50:48)
  • Dan: “Javonte, Bucky, then big drop off to Rico.” (50:52)
  • Adam: (agrees with Jacob)

• Javonte Williams:

  • Concerns about catch volume, but “still running extremely well... no concerns at all with Javonte.” — Jacob (54:30)
  • Adam compares his fantasy profile to Josh Jacobs, not high on upside unless the pass-game work picks up.

7. Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "Such a lousy Sunday of football. And then you give us Denver and Washington and totally redeem yourself." — Adam, playing off a Dumb & Dumber reference nobody else caught (01:33)
• On RB committees: "Stop, stop with the committees. Everyone just stop!" — Adam (23:00)
• “It’s a dream to have Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard... football guys are so funny to me.” — Jacob (59:20)
• On Darnell Washington: "He destroyed like six people. He went for 45 yards. I love him. He's becoming my favorite player." — Adam (34:05)

Key Timestamps

• 02:58 — Commanders-Broncos Main Discussion
• 07:40 — McLaurin Usage & WR Outlooks
• 19:30 — Thursday RB Notes & Running Back Snap Shares
• 27:28 — Receiver & Tight End Usage
• 34:40 — Notable Player Breakouts and Deep Cuts (Darnell Washington, Isaac Tesla, etc)
• 42:12 — Buy/Sell: Justin Jefferson Value
• 50:48 — Buy/Sell: Bucky Irving vs. Javonte Williams vs. Rico Dowdle
• 59:14 — Bucs Offense, Baker Mayfield, Godwin/Egbuka latest

Tone & Style

The podcast is candid, a bit self-deprecating, and full of banter, especially between Adam and Dan. They riff on pop culture, personal failings (fitness, diet, tennis struggles), and keep the fantasy talk accessible and fast-moving, frequently poking fun at themselves and each other.

Summary for Non-Listeners

• If you own Broncos skill players, adjust expectations: No clear weekly must-starts, and usage is muddled.
• Terry McLaurin is trending up for the fantasy playoffs, especially if Washington’s QB situation improves.
• Committee backfields are killing upside for RBs like Etienne and Chase Brown, but usage still makes both RB2/flex plays.
• Justin Jefferson’s outlook is dire without QB help; don’t treat superstar WRs as untouchable when stuck in league-worst offenses.
• Watch for Bucky Irving to build on his recent workload and overtake declining options like Javonte Williams for rest-of-season production.
• Tampa’s offense is trending the wrong direction, with Godwin ascending but Baker Mayfield failing to deliver consistently.
• Under-the-radar names like A.D. Mitchell, Darnell Washington, and Isaac Tesla could be difference-makers in deep leagues or playoff schedules.
• Avoid chasing "names" over usage and context—focus on snap shares, red zone roles, and QB play, especially as playoffs approach.

Listen for:

• Actionable RB/WR usage trends
• Bold rest-of-season tiers/rankings
• Practical waiver and start/sit guidance as fantasy playoffs near

Notable Quotes Recap:

• “No must-starts in Denver... Harvey would be the closest one.” — Adam (05:41)
• “If JJ McCarthy is forced to miss more time, [Jefferson] should be [outside the top 30].” — Dan (42:12)
• “He only had four targets... but I think we might have something here, honestly, with Darnell Washington.” — Adam (34:07)

For more in-depth stats, rest-of-season rankings, and to hear the FFT crew’s signature banter, check out the full episode!