
Which Week 15 duds will bounce back in Week 16? Can we trust any Seahawks if Sam Howell is their QB? What's up with Tua Tagovailoa and Kyler Murray? How much does game script matter?
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Adam Azer
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Dan Schneier
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Jacob Gibbs
Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
Heath Cummings
What a play.
Adam Azer
Can you believe this?
Heath Cummings
No, I can't.
Jacob Gibbs
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Heath Cummings
Off to the races and he stays at his feet.
Adam Azer
This is gonna go the distance.
Jacob Gibbs
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Adam Azer
Coming up, Bo beyond the box score today on Fantasy Football Today presented by bet, mgm the sportsbook Born in Vegas. We are going to talk about Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. We are going to talk about the Dolphins offense. Basically we're going to talk about who can we trust in fantasy week 16. If of course you were lucky enough to get to fantasy week 16. If not, play some DFS. Welcome everybody. Adam Azer, Jacob Gibbs, Dan Schneier here on a Monday afternoon. And man, quarterbacks. Rough week for quarterbacks. Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes and Tommy DeVito and who else? There's some replacements. Spencer Rattler got bench. James Winston got benched. Tommy DeVito. Oh, I mentioned. Anyway, rough week for quarterbacks. And by the way, David Montgomery out indefinitely with an MCL injury. So if you're playing against Jameer Gibbs next week, you're screwed. It's over. What's going on guys? How we doing?
Dan Schneier
Well, I'll start by pouring one out for my fantasy teams. No, I was in.
Adam Azer
You're done.
Dan Schneier
Not done. But listen to this. For doing bad in week 16 and for how tilted I was the entire weekend slamming things 14 leagues, three ahead of buy. So those all have a chance at next week. Of the 11 other teams, how many do you think I have a percentage? Over 50%. You know how they do the percentage if your chance to win going into these two Monday night games. Of the 11 remaining teams.
Adam Azer
3.
Dan Schneier
00. I am an underdog in every matchup. Not only that, only two matchups. Do I have any chance so nine. I'm already done in nine of the 11. So I have my three bye week teams. One of which is Patrick Mahomes and David Montgomery. Great. I'm done. It's two QB league. But like I'm so tilted out by this week of fantasy. I feel like it was a weird week too. I feel like weird scores. Just a bad week overall.
Heath Cummings
Besides, how many. How many leagues are you in? You made the playoffs in 14. I made.
Dan Schneier
I'm in playoffs in 14, but I'm in 20. I was in 23 league weeks.
Heath Cummings
Okay.
Adam Azer
That's a good person.
Dan Schneier
I'm including dynasty.
Heath Cummings
That's pretty good, right? Yeah.
Dan Schneier
It's including dynasty though.
Adam Azer
How does it go for you, Jacob?
Heath Cummings
It was kind of a frustrating week but I got a couple that I'm alive and still and Then also have some bi weeks that I feel good about next week, me and you next.
Adam Azer
Week in the magazine league. Well, I probably just jinxed it now.
Heath Cummings
Because you better hope not.
Adam Azer
Schaefer still has has a chance.
Dan Schneier
Schaefer never has a chance.
Adam Azer
Yeah, no, he's got 20 chance to. To come back and win tonight. All right. But last night he had Josh Jacobs. That was good for him. He also had Cooper cup on Thursday though. Green Bay 30 and Seattle 13. The so. So going into this game, you know, based on on the week before week 14 for Seattle against Arizona, they had a really good game. Charbonnet had that huge game and their coach McDonald talked a lot about their offensive line, how well their offensive line played well in this game. It did not play well. The packers had the second highest pressure rate of week 15 with the third lowest blitz rate. So just a rough night. And then of course you got the Geno Smith injury. So you know, we're. We're not really so much into rest of season projections at this point here. But what are you guys going to do about JSN and DK Metcalf next week if Sam Howell is the quarterback against the Vikings?
Dan Schneier
So for me, obviously being in a spot in two leagues where I need a quarterback super flex, I was looking into this. I think it'll be better for Howell when he gets a week to prepare for sure. But what I don't like is the matchup for Seattle this next week or the week after that. I was looking into it. I think both are bad spots. Potential bad weather in one of them. Cold. I'm out entirely on the Seahawks passing game. I mean, yeah, we could help how but he hasn't had reps with these guys all year. There's absolutely no rapport with these wide receivers and I am not as high on this offense all year. I haven't been very high on them because of the offensive line play. So I would probably downgrade every single player there. I guess you could maybe desperation start. Jsn, is that. Is that how you're looking at it, Jacob? Or a little bit different?
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I'm basically right with you. I don't want to use any of them. Charbonnet, I think you can start if Walker's out.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, yeah, don't expect much.
Heath Cummings
DK Metcalf didn't get a single target on 18 routes run with Sam how at QB.
Adam Azer
Yeah, the 14 pass attempts from Sam Howell and it was basically Metcalf 0 targets. JSN 4 Charbonne 3 no offense 4 AJ Barner 3 and he threw for 24 yards.
Dan Schneier
Sam Howell, this is looked overwhelmed in the pocket.
Adam Azer
Yeah. Yeah. And he takes a ton of sacks and he's, he's great for the Vikings DST for next week. They're going to sack him a ton if he's the guy. He led the NFL in past attempts last year so he's got experience. And I just want to remind everybody because like Dan said, it'll be better. Go look at Cooper Rush's first start. It was almost as bad. It was. It may be worse than what Sam Howard did. Go look at Mac Jones's first start with the Jaguars. He's played better so it will be better for Sam Howell, but it will be a struggle. Charbonnet is going to be tough to keep out of your lineup if Ken Walker is out. All right. On the other side of the ball, Jacob, what did we think of Green Bay? Who is the new Eagles? The Eagles since they're. Since the Eagles. By week the Eagles are the most pass heavy a run heavy team in football since the packers bye week which I think was five games ago. They're the second most run heavy team. Sorry, most run heavy teams. They basically are doing exactly what the Eagles do. They never throw the ball. And Josh Jacobs has scored over 20 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games. What do you think about the packers going forward Jacob?
Heath Cummings
Yeah, it's a good, good year to have Jacobs for sure. You're feeling good here going strong in the playoffs. It's really just a hope and a prayer with the rest of these guys. Romeo Dobbs think of the two touchdowns did lead the team in routes run so I guess you can feel pretty good about him because I didn't really like this matchup schematically the Seahawks a lot of press coverage and that's something he struggled against. So it's good to see him have a good game but yeah. Jane Reed 75 route rate same as Christian Watson. They said they were going to try to find him, you know, ways to get him more involved. He did get three Rush attempts but he only got three routes in two receiver sets which is technically more than usual but still hardly any. So yeah, I don't him and Watson are just, you're just hoping for big plays.
Adam Azer
Yeah, I mean I was like encouraged by Watson a little bit because he's, he played a lot. He didn't play the almost 100 that he did when Dobbs played but 78% snap share for Watson, that was pretty high for him in a game With Romeo Dobbs probably his highest in a game with romeo Dobbs and six targets is pretty good on 20 pass attempts but or 27 pass them. Excuse me, but 27 pastemps can't do much with that. So not a must start. Among the. Among the passing game for Green Bay and Tucker Kraft a huge disappointment. I almost feel like it's a little simplistic to say Romeo Dobbs in Tucker Kraft bad. But it's kind of what's been happening. So Romeo, I don't know how he.
Heath Cummings
Would affect him in a negative way. It doesn't make sense to me. And he still like his role was the same. I don't know. Their targets where they come don't overlap at all. I would think of anything. It would help to have a field stretcher. And this is just kind of a random thing that's happened over a few games.
Adam Azer
But could be.
Heath Cummings
That's just speculation.
Adam Azer
Yeah, could be. But he'll again be tough to trust. All right, well, we won't linger on this game. We'll see what happens with the quarterbacks. With the quarterback situation for Seattle going forward. We need a favor from you. We'd really appreciate it. Can you help us out? Can you vote for us for the Sports Podcast Awards? Just go to Sports Podcast. Let me just get. Make sure I got the right. We have it in the.
Dan Schneier
You can use your QR code if you're watching.
Adam Azer
Yeah, we have it in that chat. Sorry, I don't want to give the wrong URL here. Sports podcast group.com. go to sportspodcastgroup.com singular and then you will see. Vote now. Why don't we just do it? Should we just do it? We could share the screen. Yeah, just. Let's go vote. We haven't voted yet. I haven't voted yet. I'm going to vote today. I'm going to vote right now on my other computer. Schaefer is going to vote on his computer what you're looking at on YouTube. Vote. Now go to best fantasy and gaming Fantasy betting and gaming podcast. Click on Fantasy Football today. You got to scroll down for that. Let's put my. I'll put my name in here. This is how long it takes. Okay, Start counting. Or more up to like three seconds.
Dan Schneier
Oh, this is also slow because Adam is not good with technology. We remember the time a few episodes ago where Jamie had to like crop a picture for him.
Adam Azer
Yeah, I'm pretty much done here.
Dan Schneier
Yeah. So you take that. How long it took Adam. That was about 14, 16 seconds. Divide that by two or three.
Adam Azer
Okay. No, I wouldn't say that. I think I did it in that 30. That was about 30 seconds. We're done.
Dan Schneier
Yeah. So for a normal, you know, a decent person with technology will take you 13.
Adam Azer
And I voted for fantasy football today. I believe I was able to pull that off. So anyway, it's sports podcast group dot com. Vote now. Fantasy betting and gaming. Fantasy football today. All right, news and notes. So we've got Mahomes week to week with an ankle sprain. They play Saturday, then they play Wednesday. So you know, could miss.
Dan Schneier
Why would they play him other than trying to rush him for the buy? I don't think they're gonna. I. When do you think he's coming back in? When? What is your guys guess on that?
Heath Cummings
Christmas?
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Azer
You have no idea.
Dan Schneier
I mean that would give him nine days to rest.
Adam Azer
Geno Smith with the Knee and Tommy DeVito is in the concussion protocol. Drew Locke could play. It could be one of three quarterbacks for the Giants.
Dan Schneier
You know what, for neighbor's sake, it's best if they get Tim Boyle in there. As sad, as pathetic as that sounds.
Heath Cummings
Awesome.
Adam Azer
I don't know if I agree with that, man.
Dan Schneier
It's 100%.
Adam Azer
It's based on, based on that game. But man, like he's had. I think he made a start for the jets last year, right? Yeah, against the Dogs.
Dan Schneier
He's not a good quarterback. I'm not making the case.
Adam Azer
I think it's. I'd rather have Locke.
Dan Schneier
No, no, no, no. Lock was just so off. Off time. I mean, this guy Boyle, he actually throws a little bit of anticipation which is what led to like all of those neighbors catches.
Adam Azer
All right, all right. And for the running backs, okay. David Montgomery is out indefinitely.
Dan Schneier
I don't have him on three fantasy teams myself.
Adam Azer
Yes, I have him on my super flex league.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, it's great, just great.
Adam Azer
It's gonna be tough. Camara groin injury. Nick Chubb, broken foot. Julia McLaughlin, quad injury. And actually in the first half of the Broncos game, Jaleel McLaughlin was actually out snapped by Javante Williams. He had more carries than Javante. But it's just, it's so hard to see anybody just running away with his backfield at any point. But maybe Javante will get a bigger share Thursday at the Chargers if McLaughlin is out. Joe Mixon left in the second quarter. Now, he came back, but remember he got hurt similarly early in the year, came back in the game and then missed a couple weeks. I'm not saying that's going to happen. I hope it doesn't, but we'll keep an eye on Mixon and Pollard with his ankle. And that's pretty much the big news there. AJ Brown. I haven't seen an update on AJ Brown, but he got looked like an ankle injury very late in that game. Alec Pierce, concussions Xavier League at groin injury Zach Ertz, concussion Travis Kelsey's nursing an ankle injury. Offensive line, Philadelphia guard Landon Dickerson left in the third quarter and Seattle center Olufsen Oluwatimi left with a knee injury. And on defense, so we know Max Crosby's out for the season. His team plays tonight. Cleveland had another cornerback leave, Martin Emerson Jr. With a concussion. Dante Jackson for Pittsburgh. And T.J. watt. T.J. watts, a big one, obviously, but I think he's okay because he was. He was. Mike Tomlin gave sort of an encouraging update on him today, but we'll keep our fingers crossed big time. That's a huge one for the Pittsburgh Steelers defense. And Patrick Certain, let's call him questionable for Thursday's game. It's not a serious injury, but it is a short week at la at the Chargers. They've already faced the Chargers once and Certain played one snap in that game and Justin Herbert didn't really have that good of a game. I'm going to stop with the defensive injuries for now, except for the Detroit Lions because not only did they lose David Montgomery, they lost three key defensive players probably for this season. Two, two defensive backs and defensive tackle Aleem McNeil, who is a star.
Dan Schneier
And McNeil is a really, really big loss for them.
Adam Azer
Yeah, and.
Dan Schneier
And it sucks as a Giants fan because the Eagles are now a favorite, I would say, to win the nfc.
Adam Azer
But it's good for the Giants because we want the Eagles to be playing for something in week 18.
Dan Schneier
Oh, you're right, you're right, you're right.
Adam Azer
Now we don't want to. We don't want them to have like a lead where they can sit people, but we certainly don't want the Giants beating the the Eagles backups in week 18. We don't want that, everybody. All right, if you have not signed up yet for BetMGM, let's use the bonus code Fantasy and get up to a 1500 dollars first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. And here's how it works. You download the Bet MGM app and sign up using the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game. You're going to receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets. If your bet loses, just make sure you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up on Bed mgm. Also, if you've already done that, let me know. I'd love to know who's been using the BetMGM app and used our promo code. That'd be awesome. Let's get a couple minutes before we go to break. Jacob, give me some headlines in the advanced stats, the advanced metrics world that you live in.
Heath Cummings
Okay. I've got background noise if it's annoying. This might be a Dan Schneier impression time. Is that real? Is that a thing we could do?
Adam Azer
Oh, Dan, have you been working on it?
Dan Schneier
It's not ready.
Heath Cummings
All right, all right, all right.
Adam Azer
Okay.
Heath Cummings
Okay. You said. Do you say headlines? You want all of them or what do you. I'm not sure.
Adam Azer
I got to take a break in a couple minutes, so give me. Give me one or two good ones here.
Heath Cummings
Okay. A couple running back notes. James Connor. They've got a bunch of injuries in their backfield, so we saw a 75 route rate for Connor this week. That's the highest it's been all year. He also saw three of five opportunities. So these are rushes or targets from inside the 10 yard line in this game on the year, his opportunity rate from inside the 10 is the sixth highest at running back. So I just wanted to highlight him. Like he. He's somebody who I've traded away. I thought I was so smart. This is my strategy was like draft James Connor and trade him away mid season. It's like, nope, it looks like he's just gonna be like a top five running back down the stretch, like legitimate league winner. He's the engine for the offense and never more so than right now with these injuries. And then the other running back I wanted to highlight was Rico Dowdle. We. We keep bringing him up because he's been so surprisingly good. And I do think a big part of that is the Cowboys offensive line. So he's been just racking up yards before contact all year in this game. We saw him lead the NFL in yards after contact, 88 yards after contact rushing in this game. He also led the NFL and avoided tackles, which is really unusual. He had 15 missed tackles forced through 13 games before this week. This week, he. He forced eight missed tackles in one game. So that's all great. And then the other thing is it hasn't come to fruition yet. He's not getting any targets. I think he had zero in this game. But his route rate keeps rising at a 67 route rate this week, which is the percentages of drop back city runs around on that was the fourth highest at the running back position and the highest for Dattle all year. Another.
Adam Azer
Just didn't have a catch.
Heath Cummings
Did not. No.
Adam Azer
That's crazy.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. Another good note for the Cowboys offensive line is they had by far the lowest pressure rate this week in terms of pressure allowed. Only 14. Baker, Mayfield and Bonix are the only guys even below 20 other than Cooper Rush. So this is, it's working. We saw CD Lamb had by far his highest first retarget rate of the season this week. The offense is, is simple and it's just like force feed CD Lamb and then let Rico just dominate and like it's, it's working because the offensive line is playing so well.
Adam Azer
Yeah. But you know, just, just to push back one thing. The Panthers have the worst pass rush in football. They have the second or third fewest sacks but the lowest pressure rate in football. So it was a good matchup and they, and they really took advantage of.
Heath Cummings
They got, they got after the Eagles the week before that. It's obviously not a good pass rush for sure, but.
Adam Azer
Yeah. I forget who the, who the Panthers play next week. Is it the Cardinals?
Heath Cummings
I'm not sure.
Adam Azer
I think it's the Cardinals. Right. And so that's going to be a lot of. Let me just double check. Yeah, it is, it's. It's the Cardinals at home. It's a long trip and a 1 o'clock start for the Cardinals. But you know, a lot of people are going to talk about Kyler Murray later. I want to talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. Can they take advantage of this Cardinals matchup next week? We'll see. All right, give me one more.
Heath Cummings
One more. Okay, just for now. The Lions. The Lions had 62 drop backs this week, which is one of the highest of any team all year. And that's good for Jamir Gibbs. We saw him run 46 routes, which I, I wanted to look this up, but I didn't get to. That has to be one of the highest for a running back in any game this year. And then Sam laporta had an 84 route rate in this game that was easily his highest mark of the season. So even on a game where they threw a ton, his rate was the highest it's been all year. And we saw that come to fruition in a big way in terms of the stats. Obviously this type of game is not characteristic of who the Lions are, but with David Montgomery out, it's possible they do Shift to more passing, I think. And we've seen Laporta trend this way for a while now. He had a 66 route rate prior to the week 11 buy. Since then it's been 70 or higher in every game. And then that culminated into 84 this week. And the targets were there as well. So he's, you know, probably top six tight end in that, in that range going forward. Like I, I would. I think you could justify putting him over Travis Kelsey from this point on.
Adam Azer
That's assuming that, that Mahomes is out.
Heath Cummings
You're saying even if Mahomes wasn't like.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, but yeah, things might get better without most. It's crazy.
Adam Azer
Like, yeah, no, I mean, so like as a golf manager in two of my remaining leagues, pretty pumped about this week. Obviously next week could be completely different. Right? They got Chicago. Chicago has a dreadful run defense and nobody throws on them. And Chicago is not going to, going to throw, put up the same amount of points that Buffalo put up. So I was kind of almost discouraged last night when we were talking about it, but the Montgomery injury might change things a little bit. I agree. You know, and Goff is obviously rolling right now, playing great. So it'll be. And it's like as if Goff has a good game. The port has probably got a, you know, got at least a good chance to have a good game. All right, we'll talk about that more. I want to know, I want to know if you guys, after we take a break, I want to know what you think. I had an opinion about the Bills Lions game yesterday about whether or not it was a good game, a great game or whatever. And I want to know what you guys think. Am I completely out of my mind? We'll find out after this. On fantasy Football today, as someone who.
Jamie Eisenberg
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Adam Azer
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Jamie Eisenberg
It.
Adam Azer
It wasn't. It wasn't that really that competitive, to be quite honest. Am I crazy?
Heath Cummings
I think that's fair. Like the game the prior week with Buffalo felt a lot more competitive, even though it's kind of the same thing where they were chasing, but it like felt like they were right there coming back. I didn't really ever feel like Detroit was in range.
Dan Schneier
I think we're at a point here where as fans, we're looking for points, we're looking for offense. Offense is fun and exciting, but I'm still like the old curmudgeon who likes games that are like back and forth. I don't mind punts. I don't mind field position type games where like defenses are coming up with big stops. Yeah, I thought we might be getting that at. At the beginning of the second half of that Seattle game for a turnaround. Like, I like to see a comeback. Obviously their offense couldn't get it going. So I don't hate to take by you, Adam, but I will say this. Like it wasn't a bad game.
Adam Azer
No, no, it was definitely, definitely not fun to watch. Offense, definitely not a bad game. I can't find. I can't figure out what the best game of the week was because Washington, New Orleans had the best finish. No, definitely not that horrible game. Miami Houston was close. Those they played.
Dan Schneier
So it's hard to watch. No. What else there was?
Adam Azer
Oh, Jets Jaguars. Jets Jaguars.
Dan Schneier
No, no, no. Stop it, Stop it. That was a great game. Right now. See, now you're getting into the Territory.
Adam Azer
Where I can understand this is biased because we think Jets Jaguars being two bad teams, can't play a better game than Lions Bills, who are two good teams. But they did play a better game. It was a better game than Lions Bills.
Dan Schneier
Okay, so like last year when the Giants played the Patriots and it came down to a. That was a horrible game at the last second. Is that a better game?
Adam Azer
That was a horrible game with bad. Like, that was a low scoring game.
Dan Schneier
Wasn't good.
Adam Azer
That was a low score.
Dan Schneier
Okay.
Adam Azer
It was a bad week, folks. It was a bad week. There was really not a great game on the schedule. Like, that didn't turn. It looked on paper like a great week, but it wasn't.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I was watching the Colts Broncos game instead of the Lions game, and that was a mistake.
Adam Azer
You love watching Anthony Richardson. Oh, man. Yeah. I'm gonna say Jets Jags was the best game this week. Bad week, though.
Dan Schneier
What it take to die to go ahead.
Adam Azer
Go ahead. Give me. Give me a better game already.
Dan Schneier
Detroit Bills I like better than the Jets Jags.
Adam Azer
Okay? I mean, fine.
Dan Schneier
The only thing, they're playing for nothing. They're free.
Adam Azer
That's not what I'm talking about. Take all the context out.
Dan Schneier
You can't take the context because that's why we care. That's what makes it good.
Adam Azer
That's a different conversation. Like that. That's like. You know what? That's like saying the best catch. Like, people like, oh, what's the best catch ever? And they're like, well, that one happened in the super bowl. But that bet clearly better what happened in week four. But since that one happened in Super Bowl.
Dan Schneier
No, I think it's fair to say that the super bowl won. Yeah. It mean it meant more, so it makes it better.
Adam Azer
All right, it's. You know what? I. I think you're right and I think I'm right. I think we're both. I think it's just a difference of viewpoint. Jacob, let's get back to the advanced metrics.
Heath Cummings
All right. On the Buffalo Bills note, Keon Coleman returned and ran more routes than Amari Cooper. So did Dalton Kincaid. So Cooper was, I think, fifth on the team in routes run both of those world concatenator. But those two youngsters both had a route rate above 50. Coopers was at 41 behind Matt Collins, behind Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox. Dawson Knox apparently led the bills with a 65 route rate according to true media. So that's a really unusually low rate for a team leader. And it just shows like how many guys are mixing in for the Bills here? Like they even kept Curtis Samuel involved. He had 11 routes run. So it's ugly. Obviously you know that with the result for Cooper and this is the inverse of last week where for Cooper and the Bills where it's like the worst game script for him that, you know, the a game script for him for fantasy is going to be set up where they're taking shots down the field. They didn't really need to do that in this game. He did play more early on and not as much in the second half. So maybe it could be better going forward. But there's just so many guys here that I think you just are kind of have to. Kind of have to avoid them. 31st retarget share for Khalil Shakir. So even with these guys back, still led the team. 25 for Kincaid. Kincaid, this will shock you, I think on the year, Dalton Kokade is tight end, two in targets per route run, 31 qualifiers. He's tied in seven in yards per route run on the season. He really on a per route basis hasn't been that bad. It's just been an annoying season. And also this is a little bit influenced by his route rate not being quite as high as some of these other guys. He's typically around like 70, whereas, you know, Travis Kelsey might be more like 85, but yeah, he only has two touchdowns on the year and he's still in the same range as David and Joku, Evan Ingram, Travis Kelsey and Sam Laporta in fantasy points per route run. So there's more of a long term note than anything else. There were, there were opportunities for him to have a good game this week and going forward he could be productive. But I think more this is like a dynasty note. Like it has maybe been quite as bad of years. You thought I was.
Adam Azer
I was just thinking about that last night. I feel like I'm going to end up with a lot of David. With a lot of David Joker. Sorry, you mentioned him. Right. With a lot of Dalton Kincaid next year if he's, you know, like a 10th round pick or something. Because I just feel like it couldn't really get any worse for him. You know, it's just been kind of an unlucky year and he's good. I think he's a good player. So I'm glad you brought that up.
Heath Cummings
All right, let's play a game. Who has a higher yard per out run rate, Keon Coleman or Cortland Sutton?
Adam Azer
Yeah, I'm gonna go with With Cortland Sutton.
Dan Schneier
This feels like a trick Rate stat question. So I'm gonna go. No, you know what? I'm going with Sutton.
Heath Cummings
Wow. You had it. Your intuition was right. It's Keon Coleman. Coleman or Jackson Smith and Jigba?
Dan Schneier
Guess it's Coleman based on the way you're phrasing this.
Heath Cummings
You guys, you're good at this. Yes. Keon Coleman or Jameson Williams.
Dan Schneier
It is somehow Coleman.
Adam Azer
No, it's Jameson. You hear the word, the way he said Jameson Williams. I know.
Dan Schneier
The inflection in the Williams.
Adam Azer
The intonation.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Adam Azer
Jameson Williams.
Heath Cummings
Keon Coleman. Oh, Coleman or Jerry Judy with James Winston on the field.
Dan Schneier
Jerry Judy.
Adam Azer
Come on, even think about it.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, It's Jerry Judy. Jerry Judy, with James Winston on the field, has a 2.51 yard per route run rate, which is tied with Jamar Chase and is only behind Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, and Nico Collins. So that is just something I wanted to commemorate because it seems like, I don't know, maybe the James time is over, but it was a very special time and not over. Judy showed us some really crazy stuff during that time.
Adam Azer
Yeah. That. You can't really go there. I. Okay. All right, here we go. Here we go. No, I think this is a reasonable take. I think everyone's gonna agree with this. This is an easy, easy take. The drop off from Winston to Dorian Thompson. Robinson is much bigger than the drop off from Mahomes to Wentz.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Dan Schneier
Hold on. Let me process this. Let me process this.
Adam Azer
This is from a fantasy. This is from a fantasy.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Adam Azer
Standpoint.
Dan Schneier
Yes. Let me process for the receivers. Now, are we talking. We're just talking this year. Correct. The fantasy landscape that is this year for the Chiefs. Correct.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Adam Azer
Like, the Chiefs will be less. The Chiefs receiving core will be less impacted by Wentz instead of Mahomes. Then the Browns receiving core will be impacted by DTR from Winston.
Dan Schneier
Correct. Take. Correct. Take easy.
Heath Cummings
You're going from, like. You're going from, like, 250 catchable air yards per game to, like, 50, right?
Adam Azer
Yeah.
Dan Schneier
From the Moms to Wednesday. Like, what are you losing, really? Like, I mean, you're losing a lot in real life. Let me make that clear. Wentz is horrible, even though now you've gone too far. He might be better with Reed. Andy might have made him passable, but, like, they don't. Those receivers. The point that I'm making is those receivers already aren't fantasy starters for us. I mean, we can. We can flex worthy occasionally and. And pray with Hopkins, but, like, it's not a good situation.
Adam Azer
He saves it. He saved it. Yeah. But no, with Kelsey though. I don't know. I'm probably gonna treat Kelsey more like.
Dan Schneier
Going 3 for 27 every game. What are we really losing on?
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Adam Azer
Okay.
Dan Schneier
The hell is going on?
Adam Azer
Let's go back. Jacob, I love.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. We've seen podcasts. Okay, so not enough routes to qualify, but one rookie who has a higher yard per out run rate than Keon Coleman. Jalen Coker, 2.07 yards per hour run.
Dan Schneier
I will say this, Jacob. Mike on a stat like that, he had a what, 93 yard touchdown this week.
Heath Cummings
Huh.
Dan Schneier
So like I don't know. I'm just so true.
Heath Cummings
So true. Yeah. Big plays definitely in flay yards per hour run. An astute point from Dan Coleman has had a lot of big plays. This was all for fun. Keon Coleman's yard per hour rate is 2. Jalen Cokers is 2.07. I did want to bring up Coker because it was him and Adam Thielen and Xavier League. It.
Adam Azer
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
Who were all playing. It was not any.
Dan Schneier
Right.
Heath Cummings
David Moore. I almost forgot his name already. All those guys had a route rate above 70 in the first half. Then league had injured his groin. Coker ended up with an 84 route rate. 22 target share in the game. 26 for Adam Thielen in the game. So we'll see. It was. It was a regression game for Bryce Young. I think that's fair to say. But yeah, this. It's a decent volume. It could be something down the stretch.
Adam Azer
Can I ask you guys, do you know who Larry Coker is?
Heath Cummings
Sounds familiar.
Dan Schneier
I've heard the name. I feel like it's like a Miami basketball coach from the past.
Heath Cummings
Is that right?
Adam Azer
He's Miami's last national championship football coach.
Dan Schneier
2001 was one of the two.
Heath Cummings
Wow.
Dan Schneier
That was not a horrible guy.
Adam Azer
Coach Ken Dorsey, he was his offensive.
Dan Schneier
Coordinator and then you was one of the two.
Adam Azer
And Sean Taylor.
Dan Schneier
I'm still mad at Adam for not having any kind of faith or hyping me at all when it comes to the potential of Cam Ward to the Giants. Like he's made me feel so down on that possibility.
Adam Azer
I'll tell he's a better prospect than Bonix. So Bonix having a decent rookie year. So Cam Ward can too.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Azer
I'll tell you that.
Dan Schneier
Still not making me feel much better.
Heath Cummings
Just real quick on Brian Thomas Jr. I've been told that I need to be less vocal about Brian Thomas Jr. Sorry. By the way, for Keen, you guys, on BTJ all year, he had five screens this week, which was way more than we've seen for him. That tied for the highest game by a wide receiver all year. And his first three targets were all screens. So that's just funny to me, that Doug, like, we've got to get him the ball. How do we do that? Just. Just throw screens over and over.
Adam Azer
It's interesting. All right, that was a good one. That was a good stat. I said thank you to Jacob before the show. I was like, I feel like our podcast is sponsored by Brian Thomas Jr.
Dan Schneier
Just because he's that awesome week.
Heath Cummings
Seriously, every week. It really is.
Dan Schneier
Just because he's that awesome.
Adam Azer
Yeah, he is amazing. So. All right, give me your. Give me your top three Dynasty rookies.
Heath Cummings
I'll go Neighbors one. I mean, because freaking. Just. Literally just what Dan said earlier, like, Boyle would be the best option for him.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
That's insane, what he's had to deal with this year. And he's still, like, been kind of productive. But then BJ is clear, too, for me and MH. MHJ, I guess.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Azer
I think McConkie over Marvin yet.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I kind of want to, but.
Dan Schneier
So I. I was on Heath. I was on Dynasty with Heath about a month. A month and a half ago, and I said, it might be time to start having the conversation for BTJ1. And I was like, whoa. Like, people going crazy, like, over Neighbors. I'm close from that standpoint. I mean, there's. Here's the thing with btj. When I watched him at lsu, I was like, he has all the tools to be an elite level. I've got an AS Jones s wide receiver. Right. He has the frame and the speed and the movement skills. They was just a very kind of incomplete player at lsu. He ran a small variety of routes. His route tree was small, and he's kind of picked up everything insanely fast at the NFL level, faster than any of these players. I'm not saying Neighbors is capped, but Neighbors. And he's not at all. But Neighbors was already the player that he's. That he's been so far in the NFL. BGJ is one of those guys that you see hit the NFL and it's like, wow, he's actually somehow better at the NFL level than the college level. And when you see those types of guys, I feel like they always end up being potential hall of Famers. And I really think that is his ceiling.
Heath Cummings
Oh, yeah. He had one game without neighbors at LSU, and they target him, like, 13 times. He had like a 40 target share. He really, that was like his only opportunity to do it. But he can do all the wide receiver one stuff in my opinion. So the acer stat is the BTJ heard his chest and then there were two games after that. I watched every route. He clearly did not look like himself. They were basically using him as a decoy. If you take those two games out, his yard per hour run rate this year is 2.55, which is higher than the Jerry Judy number that I gave you earlier. Higher than Jamar Chase's rate this year. It would be top three in the entire NFL. It'd be one of the best rookie rates of all time.
Dan Schneier
Despite having Mac Jones for a good portion of it.
Adam Azer
Yeah, I don't really like when people have better Azer stats than than I have.
Dan Schneier
Well then you came to the wrong place.
Adam Azer
Dan is the guy's comment from the chat. Dan is the guy with an acoustic guitar at a party. Wrong.
Dan Schneier
Bill's mafia.
Adam Azer
That's.
Dan Schneier
What'd you say?
Adam Azer
Something missing from your life. You really need to learn how to play guitar.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I was gonna say wrong Bill's mafia. I'm the guy who wishes he was the acoustic guy.
Adam Azer
No, I don't. The guy with the acoustic guitar. Guitar at the party. All right, almost. We got some more.
Heath Cummings
We are. We're very close. So Britain Strange just wanted to point out 12 targets in this game. 84 route rate. This guy was picked in round two last year. So second year tight end was around two pick in the real NFL draft. 12 targets is a ton. He had a really high first three target rate as well. This wasn't just dump offs. So he's, I mean he's like high on the priority list. If he didn't get him this week. Xavier Worthy had 11 targets. Would be 12. I'm still tilting about that call because it definitely, definitely needed them. A homes touchdown. Worthy has played better lately. He's, he's shown flashes the past couple of weeks. His route running has looked more refined, the timing is better and he just looks confident. He's making people miss so that I, I, I'm gonna have to start him in a league because I lost Jalen Waddle and David Montgomery and Patrick Mahomes. So I, we'll see. I think they'll probably scheme things up to him with my home's down to just like try to get some catch and run stuff. His route rate was the highest it's been and everything is everything. All the boxes are checked. It's. We Just have to get him to actually play well. We'll see. Didn't matter because the Chargers only ran the ball 11 times. But Kimana Vidal logged a 67 snap rate. Gus Edwards didn't get hurt or anything. You didn't see anything on that, did you?
Adam Azer
No, I was going to bring that up. He played a lot.
Dan Schneier
I think a lot of that was game script but that's definitely like yeah.
Adam Azer
He played 21 more snaps than Gus this week. Last week he played six more snaps than Gus Edwards.
Heath Cummings
And two more things here, just some veteran notes. Terry McLaurin. Terry McLaurin got lined up on the right side more than in any game this year. So his left wider touchdown from the right. Yeah, that's yeah, he's been like I, I, he could have had three touchdowns from the right. He had a couple where they were like clear just like just this close and didn't quite get him. He's been at 70 or higher on the left all year and then this year it was at 58 or this week it was at 58 on the left. He's been more productive when he's been outside of the left spot. We've talked about. I think it was Nate. Ty's brought up that Jane Daniels kind of struggles to make his progressions and get to that left spot and make throws to his left when he's like moving to the left. It's possible that like maybe Cliff Kingsbury has got some wrinkles here that he's instituting as we closer to the playoffs. He used them in pre snap motion more than we've seen in any of the other games. So keep an eye on this, we'll see. That would be great for Trey McLaurin. The last note is Mike Evans continues to dominate. So I brought up there were two guys I highlighted when their receiver teammate went down their per route snap like per route data rates without that receiver and it was Debo Samuel Mike Evans and Debo's has been a huge miss. I'm so sorry about that. He clearly doesn't look like himself. He's not been anything close to the receiver that we had seen previously with Ayuk off the field Evans has actually been better than the per out data indicated without Chris Godwin on the field. Since Godwin has went down 4 games, Evans has a 31 target per route run rate and is averaging almost 4 yards per out run. 31 with an average depth of target of 12 yards is looney tunes. And so like he's legitimately like I've Been trying to not, like, bake it into my projections too much, but at this point, if I. It's four games. This is like the wide receiver one overall in fantasy kind of rates. It's really crazy. And then obviously they're chasing the one K. He only needs 83 yards per game. I think that's right. I lost it 84. 5.
Adam Azer
Yeah. Yeah, we did this yesterday, actually.
Heath Cummings
I think he's gonna get it.
Dan Schneier
For sure. For sure.
Heath Cummings
He's averaged over 100 yards per game since returning.
Dan Schneier
Basically makes him one of the most, like, foolproof players for the rest of the fantasy.
Adam Azer
It's funny you say that, though, but two of his last four games have been duds, and two of his last four games have been monster games. He had a huge game at Carolina. He had a huge game yesterday at the Chargers as Mike Evans we're talking about. But he struggled against the Giants. Five catches for 60.
Dan Schneier
Giants was his first game back.
Adam Azer
I shouldn't say struggled. He didn't have a great game at the Giants. 5 for 68. And then Raiders two weeks ago, 4 for 69 on five targets because his targets have been 6, 12, 5, 11. But bottom line is Mike Evans is in your lineup. Absolute must start clearly and, you know.
Heath Cummings
Hopefully 11 points is a floor. Is. That's where we're at. That's like basically any wide receiver one. That's their floor.
Adam Azer
Yeah. All right. So, Dan, if you were going to learn the guitar, what would the first song you'd want to learn be?
Dan Schneier
Great question.
Adam Azer
This is a great question, Jacob. Same question to you.
Dan Schneier
I think for me, it would probably be Brown Eyed Women by.
Heath Cummings
I have no idea.
Adam Azer
You talking about the song Brown Eyed Girl?
Dan Schneier
No. Brown Eyed Women. I don't know.
Heath Cummings
Please tell me it's brown.
Adam Azer
Are you talking about you, my brown Eyed girl?
Heath Cummings
No.
Dan Schneier
Now you're. Now you're getting me to. Now, of course, that's what it's called by the Grateful Dead.
Adam Azer
Oh, I don't.
Heath Cummings
Oh, nice. I've got nothing for you. Too much.
Dan Schneier
So fun. I would love to hear that. I would love to be able to play that. Ref. That opening.
Adam Azer
Ref, let me listen to it. See, I try to learn it. Never try to learn it today. No.
Dan Schneier
Have you never heard this?
Adam Azer
I'm not a Grateful Dead guy. Do I look like a Grateful Dead guy?
Dan Schneier
Yeah, you could easily be. Anyone could be a Grateful Dead guy. They're the best band ever. They are legitimately the best band ever.
Adam Azer
Oh, that's a nasty little. It's more like a solo. Not a riff at the beginning there.
Dan Schneier
I don't know the difference. I'm not a guitar guy.
Adam Azer
No, I mean, it's. It's a riff. Yeah. I don't know. A riff is like a little bit more repetitive.
Dan Schneier
And I could have told you to play.
Adam Azer
Like he's just jamming. Like he's just soloing, basically. All right, let's take a break and come back to our four big topics and some screenshots. Wait till you see these Tyree Kill screenshots, folks, of how open he was. We'll be right back after this. On Fantasy Football today.
Kyle Long
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Jacob Gibbs
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Adam Azer
All right.
Dan Schneier
Crushed in the chat right now.
Adam Azer
Oh, yeah. Okay, so I just. Most famous guitar riffs, like smoke on the water, Bam, Bam.
Dan Schneier
No. How about the Seven Nation Army? That's got to be up there.
Adam Azer
Yeah. It's bass, though.
Dan Schneier
True. Yeah.
Adam Azer
Yeah. Sweet child of Mine, that's a riff. You know, it's like kind of repetitive. Like in the Grateful Dead song He's just Soloing, basically.
Dan Schneier
Someone said, if you could do any My Morning Jacket song, what would it be? It would 100 be trying to learn how to play Lay low.
Adam Azer
Lay low. Okay, that's Eric Clapton. Layla.
Dan Schneier
No, that's Layla.
Adam Azer
All right, first topic is from Katie. She says what players can we trust for next week after bad fantasy days in week 15, she mentioned Tyrone Tracy, Alvin Camara, Cooper Cup. Gonna skip Camara right now because he's got the groin injury and quite frankly, like, he was having such a miserable game other than a catch on a trick play, that I don't really trust him. So, yeah, I gotta get the schedule up. Sorry, I forgot his matchup too. He's got the packers on Monday night. Anyway, who are we going back to that struggled in week 15?
Heath Cummings
Guys, I would love to go back to Tracy. I've been really curious to hear you guys thoughts on this. Why did Singletary get the goal line?
Dan Schneier
Look, I wouldn't go back to Tracy. So Singularity not only got the goal line look, he got. The second time they went to the red zone. He got the goal line series there as well. I think part of it is just the fact that Tracy has had his fumbles this year and they will trust Singletary inside the red zone from a ball protection standpoint.
Adam Azer
So. So I have a question. I was watching the game with some people and I kind of missed it. I was, you know, whatever with some colleagues, not like friends and I. Someone had said that they thought that Tracy had dropped a pass and basically got temporarily benched and scolded for it. And that was when Singletary went in. Did that happen?
Heath Cummings
He did Drop a pass. But the touchdown was before that. I think.
Adam Azer
Okay.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Azer
I don't know why that happened. I would be okay with Tyrone Tracy. You know Dan and I lost David Montgomery.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Azer
You know so I lost Camara. In a league I would have to consider Tracy over someone like Ramon Dre Stevenson who's just really seems to be pretty capped. Unless he somehow scores. They have the Bills. They're going to get blown out. I don't want to trust him in a bad game script. So I think Tracy against the Falcons could be okay. Let's call him somewhere between RB24 and 30. I'm going to guess he'll be in the rankings. Cooper Cup I'm definitely going back to I just bad game for Stafford cup is hard to sit like I would start him over Malik Neighbors even against the Falcons. I don't know how you guys feel about that. Falcons are an amazing matchup but I would just trust cup who's had more good games lately at the jets who are not a matchup. That scare me at all.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, that's fair. Juwan Jennings is somebody I would bring up. He had like his second worst game of the whole year even when he was playing a limited role. So I don't worry about that. All the underlying stuff looks good.
Dan Schneier
Still bad weather in that first half too.
Adam Azer
The good question is Purdy. Right. Because I'm gonna have to choose between Purdy and Nick's Purdy getting the Dolphins on the road next Thursday against the Chargers. I. I feel like I'm a bit of an apologist. No question for the 49ers but how good were they two weeks ago once the Bears right. Invincible. And then they had this first half in the rain against the Rams which is terrible. Second half I can't really give you a good excuse for offensive lines. Obviously struggling. It's beat up right now. If he had. If I had to pick I'd probably go Brock Purdy over Bo Nicks. But I. I just feel like the 49ers can bounce back. I think Garendo can be well Dolphins run defense is legit but I think. I think the cow the Niners can really bounce back next week. Anyone feeling that?
Dan Schneier
I'm not really feeling that. No.
Adam Azer
Yeah. I'm a Niners apologist. Maybe I'm going too far because the offensive line injuries are a big deal. See the Dolphins are favored in this game early line but one and a half points hosting the 40.
Dan Schneier
I will say this. You had to take earlier that the seven nation army riff is Base. And I was kind of in my head like, is that really base? I don't kind of think it is. And I know I don't think it is. And now finally someone in the chat was like, seven Nation Army Is guitar okay? So just a random bad take.
Adam Azer
I don't really like that song at all, actually. They hate that song.
Dan Schneier
Who hates that song? Me.
Adam Azer
I hate that song.
Dan Schneier
Oh, you hate that song. Okay, now that you were wrong about it, you hate that song.
Adam Azer
I do.
Heath Cummings
Be fair, it was just one person in the chat. My old roommate used to play that on bass. I don't know.
Dan Schneier
Oh, wow.
Adam Azer
Maybe I'm gonna look up a YouTube video. Let's see if I can find this. All right. Who else are you guys turning back to in week 16 after a bad week 15?
Dan Schneier
Like, must start, guys. I don't know. Jacob who? Stafford?
Adam Azer
Yeah.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I think, I think you can go back to him. What about Cup?
Adam Azer
Yeah, I already said Cup. Oh, how about. How about Marvin Harrison Jr.
Dan Schneier
There's some signs.
Heath Cummings
Sick of it.
Dan Schneier
I'm sick of Harrison Jr. We're all sick. Harrison Jr. I'm sick of Kyler Murray, who was supposed to. Was in four of my fantasy match, supposed to help me win. Did horrible. But there are some signs of them getting a little bit of the timing down better on those out routes, those outbreaking routes. But no, I don't think. I don't think we're there yet.
Heath Cummings
I think Chuba Hubbard.
Dan Schneier
Chuba's a good one.
Heath Cummings
Brian Robinson.
Adam Azer
It appears that Brian Robinson. I don't know. I mean, against the Eagles. Not that those run defense is so good, but they might be throwing more than we expect. It appears to be a guitar, not a bass guitar. So I apologize for that. That horrible take. Okay. That, you know, and I. One thing I wanted to bring up about Marvin Harrison Jr. Is one, he has a great matchup against Carolina next week on the road. Carolina gets destroyed by number one receivers regularly. But also Christian Gonzalez, really, like just one, just owned Marvin Harrison Jr. First pass attempt of the game. He beat Gonzalez just kind of cutting across the middle, over the middle and got a 23 yard gain out of it. But after that, Gonzalez, whenever he was on him, played him really well, including knocking a ball away from him in the end zone, two end zone targets. So that, that's troubling. Like that Gonzalez really got the better of him just from a long term standpoint. But he has six end zone targets in his last three games. He has at least one red zone target in five straight games. That gives me faith in Harrison as like a high upside number three receiver. Not say he's a must start, but he's. I think he's got some upside because they're trying to get him in the end zone. All right, next question is sort of related. It's from Texas. Bruin 67. He says, Can Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert be trusted in the fantasy playoffs? So Murray this week is at Carolina and Justin Herbert gets Denver on Thursday with out maybe without Patrick certain. He already faced them without certain. Although the first time Riley Moss was healthy and he scored 15.7 fantasy points. But do you guys trust Kyler or Herbert this week? This upcoming week?
Dan Schneier
No, I don't.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I don't trust it, but I would probably go back to Kyler again. I know, but there is just a ton of upside.
Dan Schneier
I thought that about this matchup this week.
Adam Azer
Well, Connor had two rushing touchdowns, you know, including one from the goal line. They try to get so how many point. He only scored 9.1. So really there's no excuse. Like even if he had scored one of those touchdowns instead of Connor, Kyler, Murray, it still would have been a bad game. But Kyler's not running that much. And this is the issue with both of these guys. Herbert is obviously playing hurt and can't really run. So I don't really want to start him. I think that pass rush is going to be all over him. I just. I don't trust him at all. And Kyler, I do think you. I think he's not the worst. I feel like he's going to end up being a top 15 quarterback this week in the rankings.
Dan Schneier
I would go Kyler over Herbert. I think the issue with Herbert is what you mentioned, not only just the injury, just like you see that Chargers defense taking a step back and you would think that's a good thing from a script standpoint. But part of why the Chargers have been able to be efficient through the air is off of play action and off of the game script they've had. So I actually don't think it's a good. I don't think as offense is set up for them to play from behind.
Adam Azer
Who. So somebody said Anthony Richardson against Tennessee or Justin Herbert against the Broncos.
Heath Cummings
I'm worried about Anthony Richardson. Man, things really fell apart after that play with Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, it was like the momentum was just completely sucked out of them and they couldn't do anything after that. And I don't know when he gets rolling downhill, it gets out of control fast.
Adam Azer
Yeah, yeah. And I think. But. But he's like, he's so I think.
Dan Schneier
I go with Richardson over Herbert, which is bad. But it's like there's like Herbert's path to points at this point now that he's hurt and he's gonna get you a zero from rushing standpoint is all just passing touchdowns. At least Richardson can. Then that's four points. I'm talking four point passing, TD league. Some like Richardson can get you that back. Rushing. I think in a game like at least that one touchdown passing.
Adam Azer
Someone says, why is Justin Herbert. No, that's not it. Why is Justin Herbert such a bum? Sad face.
Dan Schneier
He's not a bum.
Adam Azer
Nah. He made some really great throws in this game. But. But then he had a horrible interception when he was under pressure. And I think that just goes back to him not being able to get away from pressure, which is very.
Dan Schneier
He's hurt. He's really hurt playing.
Adam Azer
Yeah. All right. Third big topic is about the Dolphins. They are popular on this show and it's from Fat Miami one. He says, I want to hear about how much TUA stinks and how coach Mike needs to go.
Heath Cummings
And that's kind of topics are not fun. We could have just talked about Brian Thomas Jr. The whole podcast.
Adam Azer
But it is, it is an interesting topic. If we think they might fire Mike McDaniel.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Dan Schneier
And then I don't think there's any sign of them firing Mike McDaniel.
Adam Azer
And they really can't beat a good team. They cannot beat a good team. It's year after year.
Dan Schneier
We all watched this game this morning on tape because we knew we were going to talk about this one. I. This, this offense is so out of sync right now. I think a lot of tua's, I guess, short comings as a quarterback, I've been exposed during this run, but he's been on fire.
Adam Azer
That's the thing. He was like the number one quarterback or number two quarterback in his previous four games. He's playing great.
Dan Schneier
I wouldn't describe what I've seen as.
Adam Azer
Playing great, but I think just playing safe.
Dan Schneier
I mean it was working to an extent from a fantasy standpoint. And they're moving the ball, but it's not what we saw when they were just that offense clicking with Mike McDaniel. I think he needs to retool it this off season. They need to make investments on the office.
Adam Azer
Well, they need to throw the ball downfield. This is ridiculous. You know the stat that really. Okay. I read the Miami Herald recap of this game. And it was basically saying Tua was under pressure the whole time, the start. He's got two backup offensive tackles in there.
Dan Schneier
Yep.
Adam Azer
He wasn't at all. He wasn't under pressure the whole like he was at points, but actually the pressure rate was pretty low. It just. He had his lowest adot of the year when he was not under pressure. If you just like sort his game log of under pressure. No, he threw the ball two and a half yards downfield or something like that when he wasn't under pressure. So let's go ahead and I want to show you two screenshots here. So this is the second one in the game. There's Tyreek Hill getting wide open for an easy touchdown. That would have been about 16 yards out or something, or 20 yards, I don't know. And Tua has already checked down and there's really no pressure there. If he just waits another half second, he's got a touchdown, I think to Tyreek Hill. Now this. There was a holding on the play, so it wouldn't have counted. But he didn't make the throw to a. To a guy who just beat a like Tyree Kill against a linebacker and you don't even wait for that play to develop. So he, Tua just got the ball out too quickly. Let's show the other one here. This is him against Stingley. He comes in, he goes back out. He leaves Stingley and the safety in the dust. Tyree Kill is wide open and Tua still has the ball and a clean pocket. And who does this pass go to? Wyatt goes to Devon Achan two yards away from him. So I think Tua played an awful game. Did not look, it's possible because Tyron Armstead was out and his right tackle has been out that he just didn't want to like, he just didn't have confidence in it. Maybe. He was also hobbling at one point in the game, remember on that interception. So for whatever reason, he just, he. He checks down a lot. But this was an extreme version of super safe to. It's ongovailoa. And he missed a couple of touchdown opportunities to Tyree Kill. One of them would have been called back. But still, I thought this was the, you know, an awful game for Tua. Usually it works okay because he throws over 40 times a game. But how about your thoughts for week 15 against or week 16 against the 49ers based on this performance?
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I'm not pretty. I'm not. I'm not personally excited about. I like that this one's in Miami. Correct?
Adam Azer
Yes.
Dan Schneier
I like that we're going to get the the weather for it that we need for passing, but no waddle, most likely in this game. I would assume left with the knee, didn't come back. Just take some explosiveness out of the offense. You've just did a great job of showing that right now. I mean, from their time together, Tua and Tyreek are clearly on the from having their worst rapport that we've seen in their career. I don't know what's going on there, so I'm not excited about it.
Heath Cummings
On throws of 10 or more air yards, Tua was two for nine with a 33 off target rate and three interceptions.
Adam Azer
Yeah, two for nine. At least you could count the interceptions. He was five for nine on those throws. They were caught. Yeah, he just. You know what I always say this, right? You don't want to judge somebody at his absolute worst. This was the worst game Tua had played maybe all year, certainly recently. He was so bad in this game, he's capable of doing better than this. So if I had asked you, Cooper, to what's with me today? Tua Tongue by Loa against the Niners or Kyler Murray against the Panthers next week.
Dan Schneier
Very, very easy for me.
Heath Cummings
Help me understand why Mike McDaniel keeps calling empty sets where all the guys just run a hitch.
Dan Schneier
I don't know.
Heath Cummings
Is there a football thing I'm missing here?
Dan Schneier
Like I'll tell you. So here's what it is. If that, if that's the case and we've seen this, I've seen this so much in my fan, it is a giant. Jason Garrett got to this point. Even Brian Dable got to this point at one point. When that starts happening, it's mostly in my mind at least because the coach doesn't trust his offensive pass protection and because of that, he wants to run spacing routes based on timing that are all hitches that break back to the quarterback. So you just get the ball out quick.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Dan Schneier
So I think he just doesn't trust his offensive line right now.
Heath Cummings
All right.
Dan Schneier
But it could be that he doesn't trust Tua honestly, to operate those deeper concepts. I don't know.
Adam Azer
All right, our last topic comes from NFL Life. At what point do we ignore game script and just play our best players like Lamar Jackson and Devontae? Okay, no one told you to sit Lamar Jackson, I promise you. I know people were worried about, oh, they're going to get such a big lead.
Dan Schneier
Right.
Adam Azer
But I said every time they've Blown out an opponent just going into the game. He's had a big game and he was ranked second for Jamie, fourth for Dave and first for Heath. So while everybody was too low on him because Jared Goff scored a hundred million points, no one said sit Lamar Jackson. But it's a fair question. You know, studs, game script, all that. Jacob, what's your take on that? How much do you factor in game script?
Heath Cummings
Well, with quarterbacks, like it's important to just remember like how you get a big league is, is scoring points. And I guess that could come in other ways, but often that's coming from the hands of the quarterback, you know. And so like to get to that point where you're winning by 14 or 20 or whatever, like you are scoring touchdowns. Most likely. Anytime your team has a high implied total that is good, that correlates strongly with quarterback scoring. So I rarely shy away from a high implied total just because of the spread when it comes to the quarterback. Unless it's some team that's very, very sensitive, which the Ravens are. But obviously don't bench Lamar Jackson. But who is the other one that they brought up?
Adam Azer
This is a really good one. I did not want to start Devonte Smith. He had a huge game. They threw 31 times. Which is. Which would be like the bills throwing 80 times or maybe, I don't know, it'd be like a different team throwing 80 times. But yeah, that this is a good question here. Like with devonte Smith and game script and all that.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I don't. We're worried about them just blowing them out and so like you didn't want to play them because the target's been low and stuff.
Adam Azer
I think so. I, I don't want to say they were worried about gamescript might not be the right term for this, but just the fact that they were averaging 21 and a half pass attempts per game since they're by. I had a feeling they'd throw more because of all the A.J. brown stuff. But he, he's been tough to trust to begin with. So.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Adam Azer
Yeah. So with devonte's. Devonte Smith I was talking about here, I was surprised by this game. But I think if you had told me they're gonna throw 30 times and Devontae Smith is playing and Dallas Goddard isn't. That's usually a recipe for stardom. For stardom and start him for, for devonte Smith. So that's a tricky one here. I don't know if you have anything to add, but. Okay, so who's A so who's a player where that we look at game script. We look at it with Mark Andrews.
Heath Cummings
Like this this week I benched Mark Andrews because typically when they do play in a game where they get a big lead, he doesn't play as much because they don't like him as much on those jumbo sets. They don't have him in to block and run block and stuff like that as often. It's the same thing that I brought up with Lamar that where like, you know, if they're going to build a big lead that's coming through touchdowns and so he could get that because he's been the one scoring so many touchdowns and you got one this week. But yeah, if you wouldn't have gotten that touchdown, you would have been three points, four points or whatever. Anybody else who's super sensitive to it.
Adam Azer
So. Yeah, but not superstars like Ramondre Stevenson, like Tyrone Tracy, Rico Dowdle is the fact that they've been competitive and winning games lately is huge. If they have a matchup where, where the Cowboys. So they're facing like this is tough. They're facing Tampa Bay at home. I think it'll be a close enough game Sunday night at home where I'm going to trust Rico Dowdle. But if they fall behind, it's gonna be bad for him, I think.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. Monterey Stevenson's another one.
Adam Azer
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
I don't really know like Jonathan Taylor.
Adam Azer
Oh, yeah. Oh, for sure. That's what I. I was really low on him this week because the Broncos have a great run defense. He never catches passes and he's already had like three bad games in his last five or something like that in full ppr. I was wrong about him. I know it didn't turn out to be that way because he fumbled at the goal line, but that was one where. Should I have just trusted the talent of Jonathan Taylor? I'm gonna say no. Honestly, I think. I think I had the right logic there. It just didn't work out.
Heath Cummings
I think James Cook is maybe a name to bring up. Like we've seen when they get into high paced shootouts and stuff like that. He can get phased out. I was similar to Taylor. I was kind of low on him this week because I was a little worried like what if the Lions build a big lead like we saw the week prior. But yeah, he's. He's really good. That touch, that second touchdown run was so freaking cool. He might be a better example of like you just, you just roll with them. You just trust them. Unless you have an option do you think is clearly better?
Adam Azer
And the last one. I'll say this will be the toughest one for me this week. It will be Jared Goff, who's obviously playing at an unbelievable level, but his game script is going to be a lot different against the Bears next week maybe than it was against. It's in Chicago. Right. First of all, he's been indoor. He's been indoors almost all season. It's in Chicago in December. And can the Bears offense do anything now? The fact that the Lions defense is as beat up as it is helps. But the last two games, the packers scored 31 points, I think, and the Bills scored 48 points. It's not going to be that way. I don't.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Azer
For golf.
Dan Schneier
I actually think this could be a great take. I. It could be a very big time move to bench Jared Goff for the fantasy semifinals. You might be right.
Adam Azer
The good news for me is I'd be benching him for Jalen Hurts.
Dan Schneier
That's not really benching.
Adam Azer
But. But yeah. I mean, so what I would say to this. To this question.
Dan Schneier
I like this.
Adam Azer
If you're thinking about a player like golf in his game script and you can apply it to Jalen Hurts last week where we didn't really love him because the matchup and all that, you better be benching for someone really good. You don't bench him for like Jameis Winston in a good matchup or someone you think can be good. It's got to be someone that. That is. That is truly, like, has a chance to be absolutely great and is. And has a high floor also. You don't want to be too risky or too cute with it.
Heath Cummings
Naji Harris is another guy who's been very game script sensitive.
Adam Azer
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
Which I thought would benefit Jalen Warren. But this week they're like, no, we're gonna get Cordero Patterson involved to get him in there on passing downs.
Adam Azer
You guys gonna. Last question for. You gonna start Lamar Jackson against Pittsburgh this week?
Dan Schneier
Yes.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Adam Azer
Has he ever had a good game against Pittsburgh?
Dan Schneier
I would never bench Lamar Jackson in.
Adam Azer
The semifinals Saturday at home against Pittsburgh. You know what? I wouldn't either. But if I were playing against Lamar Jackson, this would be a good week for me.
Dan Schneier
You'd be happy with the matchup.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Adam Azer
This would be a good week for me to be.
Dan Schneier
A lot of people said that about playing, myself included, by the way. And I lost two matchups because of it. About playing Jalen Hurts this week, and I was playing against Jalen Hurts this week, and he scored what, 30 points?
Adam Azer
31. Ish. Yeah. All right. Someone, notorious Mongolian gerbil, is benching Lamar Jackson for Sam Darnold next week. Sam Darnold at Seattle. Lamar Jackson home against Pittsburgh. I support it. I support it. Oh, I support it.
Dan Schneier
I do not.
Adam Azer
I don't support it in four point for passing, touchdown leagues. Not a chance in six point.
Dan Schneier
One thing, too, to remember about Lamar. Like, he is, in my mind at least, thinking somewhat about the MVP race. I think the stats are somewhat meaningful to him.
Adam Azer
His stats are so much better than Josh Allen's.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, but people are already making the case for Allen based on the wins that they've had.
Adam Azer
People have already decided. Yeah, it's like, it's not even. No one's even making cases anymore. It's game, set, match for Josh Allen.
Dan Schneier
Yeah. So how do you change that? You go up for another five touchdowns.
Heath Cummings
Adam, retract your statement. Do not bench Lamar Jackson for Sam Darnold on the road against Seattle.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Azer
No.
Heath Cummings
Has one game where he threw five touchdowns. Other than that, he doesn't have a single game over 25 points.
Dan Schneier
And that's what I mentioned at Seattle. Bad weather, potential for Sam.
Adam Azer
It's not like Lamar.
Heath Cummings
Any game you have, you can't believe that on your bench. Like, maybe you get right and Darnold scores him by four or something.
Adam Azer
But, like, that's a fair point.
Dan Schneier
Chicago.
Adam Azer
I didn't mean that I would actually do it, but I support it. I'm okay with it. Because Lamar Jackson has awful history against the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's unbelievable. And if T.J. watt doesn't play, then it's not even a question. I'm going with with Lamar Jackson, but.
Dan Schneier
Doesn'T matter if he plays or doesn't.
Heath Cummings
Ride or die with your studs.
Adam Azer
No, I don't agree with that. And honestly, Sam Darnell. Sam Darnold has been a borderline stud this year. This is what I'm talking about. Like, Sam Darnold deserves that. He has had the best game this year against the Bears. I forget this stat. He has the best game in the last, like, seven weeks against the Cardinals. And there was one other team that was really good against quarterbacks, and Sam Darnold killed them. He's been the best against tough matchups, so he deserves a lot of credit. He's been really good this year. So just throwing that out there, that's great. All right. I need. I need a week to think about this. All right, everybody, thanks so much for watching and listening and we'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today with the Wave Al Paramount podcasts.
Heath Cummings
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Fantasy Football Today: Episode Summary
Beyond the Box Score: Can We Trust Kyler? Tua? Kupp? Any Seahawks?
Release Date: December 16, 2024
Hosts: Adam Azer, Dan Schneier, Jacob Gibbs, Heath Cummings, Jamie Eisenberg
Produced by: CBS Sports
The episode kicks off with the hosts reflecting on a tumultuous Week 15 for fantasy football managers, particularly focusing on the quarterback position’s volatility. Adam Azer sets the stage by highlighting the struggles faced by key quarterbacks, including Geno Smith, Patrick Mahomes, and Tommy DeVito.
Adam Azer [02:54]:
"Coming up, Beyond the Box Score today on Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM the sportsbook Born in Vegas. We are going to talk about Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert. We are going to talk about the Dolphins offense. Basically, we're going to talk about who can we trust in fantasy Week 16."
The discussion delves deep into the quarterback challenges, highlighting injuries and inconsistent performances that have left fantasy managers scrambling.
Injuries:
Player Trust:
Dan Schneier [04:18]:
"I am an underdog in every matchup. Not only that, only two matchups. Do I have any chance so nine. I'm already done in nine of the 11."
The hosts debate the reliability of Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert moving into the fantasy playoffs, considering their recent performances and team dynamics.
Heath Cummings [54:48]:
"Yeah, I don't trust it, but I would probably go back to Kyler again. I know, but there is just a ton of upside."
Injuries have not spared the running back position, leading to tough decisions for fantasy lineups.
Injuries Impacting RBs:
Player Performance:
Heath Cummings [16:36]:
"Like he. He's somebody who I've traded away. I thought I was so smart. This is my strategy was like draft James Connor and trade him away mid-season. It's like, nope, it looks like he's just gonna be like a top five running back down the stretch, like legitimate league winner."
James Connor and Rico Dowdle emerge as reliable options, with Connor showing increased involvement due to team injuries and Dowdle capitalizing on the Cowboys' strong offensive line.
The episode shifts focus to wide receivers, utilizing advanced metrics to evaluate player performance and potential future value.
James Connor’s Route Rate:
Rico Dowdle’s Efficiency:
Mike Evans’ Consistency:
The hosts discuss Jameson Williams and RJ Ward in the context of their yards per route run and potential for breakout performances.
Analyzing how team dynamics and matchups affect player performance, the hosts provide insights into offensive and defensive strategies.
Packers’ Offensive Struggles:
Dolphins’ Offensive Breakdown:
Critique of Tua Tagovailoa’s overly cautious playstyle, noting missed opportunities and lack of deep throws.
Adam Azer [58:33]:
"The good question is Purdy. Right. Because I'm gonna have to choose between Purdy and Nick's Purdy getting the Dolphins on the road next Thursday against the Chargers."
Eagles’ Run-Heavy Approach:
The hosts offer strategic advice on managing fantasy lineups, emphasizing the importance of trust in player performances and understanding game scripts.
Game Script Considerations:
Evaluating whether to stick with high-performing players like Lamar Jackson and Devontae Smith despite potential game scripts that may limit their scoring opportunities.
Heath Cummings [63:12]:
"I rarely shy away from a high implied total just because of the spread when it comes to the quarterback. Unless it's some team that's very, very sensitive, which the Ravens are. But obviously, don't bench Lamar Jackson."
Player Selection Tips:
Recognizing when to bench underperforming players for high-upside alternatives.
Dan Schneier [54:36]:
"I thought that about this matchup this week. He might be better with Reed. But, like, they don't. Those receivers. The point that I'm making is those receivers already aren't fantasy starters for us."
Engaging with the audience, the hosts address listener-submitted questions, providing personalized advice and expanding on previously discussed topics.
Wrapping up, the hosts summarize the key takeaways from the episode, reiterating the importance of staying informed about player performances, injuries, and team dynamics to optimize fantasy football success.
Emphasis on adaptability and proactive management of fantasy lineups.
Heath Cummings [70:06]:
"Ride or die with your studs."
Encouragement to utilize advanced metrics and stay updated with the latest NFL news to make informed decisions.
Dan Schneier [04:18]:
"I am an underdog in every matchup. Not only that, only two matchups. Do I have any chance so nine. I'm already done in nine of the 11."
Heath Cummings [16:36]:
"He's somebody who I've traded away. I thought I was so smart... Looks like he's just gonna be like a top five running back down the stretch, like legitimate league winner."
Adam Azer [58:33]:
"The good question is Purdy. Right. Because I'm gonna have to choose between Purdy and Nick's Purdy getting the Dolphins on the road next Thursday against the Chargers."
Heath Cummings [63:12]:
"I rarely shy away from a high implied total just because of the spread when it comes to the quarterback. Unless it's some team that's very, very sensitive, which the Ravens are. But obviously, don't bench Lamar Jackson."
Dan Schneier [54:36]:
"I thought that about this matchup this week. He might be better with Reed. But, like, they don't. Those receivers. The point that I'm making is those receivers already aren't fantasy starters for us."
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the episode's critical discussions on player performances, injuries, and strategic insights essential for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to dominate their leagues. By leveraging the expertise of hosts Adam Azer, Dan Schneier, Heath Cummings, and their co-hosts, listeners gain valuable perspectives to navigate the complexities of fantasy football playoffs effectively.