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Adam Mazer
This is Fantasy Football today from CBS Sports.
Dan Schneier
Wanna play? Can you believe this?
Adam Mazer
No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet.
Dan Schneier
This is gonna go the distance.
Adam Mazer
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. Today on beyond the Box Score, advanced stats from simple people. What's the deal with Justin Jefferson? Is he Even a top 24 wide receiver rest of season? Well, of course he is, but is he a top 12? What about Zay Flowers? What do you need to know about him? Travion Henderson, Is this the start of something big? Jerry? Judy, is this the start of something big? And what do we make of that Chargers Steelers game last night? The Chargers, I think they had a 3% blitz rate last night. 3%, and it worked pretty well in a 2510 win. This is Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM. Make it legendary. Adam Mazer. Jacob Gibbs. Dan Schneier. What's up, guys? How was your. Dan Schneider, how was your weekend?
Dan Schneier
Well, it was great in the sense that I got in the last, probably the last round of golf for New Jersey golfers. Saturday was unreal. Out of nowhere, 60 degrees, sunny. Like, I came in like winter gear. Took off. The winter hat took off, went. So it was great. Lost a match on 18. That part wasn't so great, but the rest of it was great. And then it got ruined because the Giants are the Giants and all they want to do is make our lives miserable. Adam. So good, then bad.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, the Giants also lost the match on 18, which they've done three or four times this year. Jacob, were you bored during the Chiefs bye week? I hate the Giants bye week. I don't know how you feel.
Jacob Gibbs
It was nice. The Chiefs have been a little bit stressful this year. They're kind of all over the place. But yeah, this is. This is a super fun weekend of football, I thought.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, it was.
Dan Schneier
Unless you needed to win matchups with the Ronde Gads and getting just five or six points, which he's done all year except for this week. Yeah, he lost three matchups because of that.
Adam Mazer
Three. Oh, no. That's terrible. All right, so Ronnie Gatson, by the way, has the knee injury and, you know, we're waiting to see. He's going to have an MRI on his knee, which is never good.
Dan Schneier
Not a good sign.
Adam Mazer
But. But we won't jump to any conclusions with Iran Gads. And obviously it could have a big impact on the Chargers passing game, but let's get into that game Chargers 25, Pittsburgh 10 and Jacob, what stands out to you from a fantasy perspective?
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, the Gads. The injury could be huge for sure. I, I feel like the, the biggest takeaway here was they really kind of forced things to Quentin Johnston in this game. So that could be huge because we've, Dan and I have speculated a lot and beyond the box score that the, the tackle problem for the Chargers could be like kind of a Quentin Johnson problem because he'd been used primarily as the X receiver to stretch the field. But he played more than the other receivers and also got 10 targets as they designed more stuff around the line of scrimmage. Of course McConkey's the one who pops off. He's, he's incredible. Another game where Keenan Allen's playing time was just down. He's like pretty much only playing in three receiver sets and so I think he'll have some good games. But they're getting Trey Harris, the rookie, involved. They really like him as a blocker. So his, the role has been reduced for the veteran and that's probably what you can expect going forward. Another good Justin Herbert game. I've, I've got some like it didn't end up being a huge fantasy game for him, but like this is the absolute floor given the, the infrastructure of where he's at right now. So I've got some stats on him that we'll get into later with the quarterbacks.
Adam Mazer
I don't know. I am not so thrilled with, with this Justin Herbert development because again, I mean you see the, you see the result of not having his starting tackles and season high. 64 of his throws were in under two and a half seconds. That's the third highest of any quarterback this week. His three games with his lowest percentage or highest percentage of throws in under two and a half seconds are all games without Joe Alt. He had a 4.7 yard a dot, second lowest of the season. I mean that's ridiculous. He didn't throw a deep ball really through barely any. So I think when you look at here are the games that Joe Alt either left with an injury or missed the game. Six point per passing touchdown leagues, 14 and a half points at the Giants, 16.6 against Washington, 22.8 at Miami, 33.9 against the Colts, 31.7 at Tennessee. All played about half that game and 16.7 last night. So we've got two great games, one good game, three bad games in this sample size. And other than that, when he has had Joe Walt, he's been Pretty money. Like a guaranteed great game, basically, unless he's at Denver. So I, with this quarterback landscape, I'm not so sure that he's top. I think he's in that mix of, you know, 8 to 15. He could finish anywhere there. But I'm not sure we got a league winning quarterback in my opinion.
Dan Schneier
In Herbert, there were, there were like no intermediate shots and no deep shots. As you mentioned, Adam, it felt like everything was quick game and that may be the case moving forward. Part of that is also how the Steelers play defense and what that forces you to do as an offense. I was looking ahead. There are some better days ahead. Raiders on the schedule, Cowboys on the schedule, Jaguars even, to some extent.
Adam Mazer
Oh, no, no, not to some extent. The Jaguars are an amazing matchup that they are getting torched through the air. And that's next week. That's a great matchup. So that does help. You're right.
Dan Schneier
And then it's Raiders right after that. So there are matchups ahead.
Jacob Gibbs
To me, it's game script. Right. Like it's almost only game script. They ran ball 25 times. It beat the crap out of the Steelers and their defense played really, really well, which hasn't always been the case. And it's like week 14, Philly, week 15, Kansas City, week 16, Dallas. Like that's, that's what I'm excited about for him is like the potential to get into more back and forth games where they have to pass, which is what we've seen basically all year.
Dan Schneier
True.
Adam Mazer
Okay. I just, I feel like there might be some games where we're going, well, this is what it looks like without his tackles. You know, he's pressure under pressure all game. He really wasn't this game because he got the ball out so quick.
Dan Schneier
But quick game. Yeah, exactly.
Adam Mazer
Yeah. And with Quentin Johnston, five catches, 42 yards on 10 targets. Quentin Johnston had six targets in this game at or behind the line of scrimmage. I think he had six the entire season. Yeah. But going into the game, this was not Quentin Johnson. You, you guys are 100% right to think that this Joe Alt injury would hurt Quentin Johnson because it has in the past. So they have this completely different role for him in this game, which didn't really work. I mean, it wasn't a good game. Despite 10 targets scored, 9.2 PPR fantasy points. But at least he got targeted and first read targets and all that stuff. That's great design stuff for him on the. And then you also have the Gadsden injury. So if Gadsden misses time. Then everything we're going to say today is probably irrelevant. But I. I think the chart. The Chargers have been and remain one of the toughest teams to project because they. They just have a lot of mouths to feed. But if you get this scenario, guys, where it's like Keenan Allen's not really doing much, he's being phased out a little bit around misses time. Obviously, everyone's starting. McConkey, I think you might start seeing that Quentin Johnson start percentage go up. What was it? It was last night. It was 72%, which is still pretty high, but could stay that or be even higher. I guess what I'm saying is it could be a good thing for him. Okay.
Jacob Gibbs
I just think this is the floor for Herbert as the last thing on him. Like this is. This is better than the worst game for Josh Allen, for Patrick Mahomes, for Jalen Hurts. This is his worst game all year. And before it got out of hand in the second half, they were leaning more on the pass.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Jacob Gibbs
That 17 of 25 Vidal rush attempts came the second half.
Dan Schneier
Sure, that's true. They got to a point like they were stalling out early in the game. They were trying to go under center. And they got to the point where they did go back into their past first ways before the end of the game where they kind of took the air out of the ball, which is a good sign. I just am a little bit concerned how, like how much of this quick game is sustainable.
Adam Mazer
I think my point was less about Herbert and more about the quarterback position. You have to be so good this year to stand out at the quarterback position. And without his tackles, with Gadsden maybe missing time, it might limit that ability for Herbert. He's going to have to keep running a lot. He was among. He's among the best rushing quarterbacks this year, but he's never done anything quite like that with his legs. But okay. For the Pittsburgh Steelers. Dan, just a terrible game. Like Aaron Rodgers said it like, I had a bad game. I was bad. I have to be better. Mike Tomlin said we were bad. We'll be back. I thought it was interesting that they. A 3% blitz rate might have been one blitz, one or two blitzes all game.
Dan Schneier
And that's what Minter does.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, guys didn't. They weren't open, you know. So what do you think?
Dan Schneier
Yeah, so that's interesting. I think. I think Aaron Rodgers being a little hard on himself personally. He missed the third of Metcalf early. That's a difficult throw. He made Some really, really good throws and high level reads in this game. His receivers are just not on the same page with him. Whether it's Calvin Austin or Roman Wilson, whoever it may be. You could just see the timing is way off. Aaron Rodgers is throwing to a spot where he expects them to be and they're not there a lot. That's a really bad sign. But then also it's like if you just do what the Chargers did, you mentioned it, they didn't blitz. They didn't. They just played super, super, super gap sound in the run game. They just gapped out in the run game. You kind of could just beat this Arthur Smith offense. Right? Just gap out in the run game, which is what they did. So Warren wasn't able to do much at all. That takes away all of the, what they've done offensively, which is basically use the run action game to create stuff in the play action game. And so now Rogers has to be more of a drop back passer with receivers who he's not on the same page with, who are running routes to spots where he's not throwing the football to. And DK Metcalf, who Jacob and I have discussed a lot on our show, we're not huge believers in him as like a pure route winner or like somebody who Rodgers can rely on in the past like he has with Devonte Adams and at times Garrett Wilson. He can make big plays. He's a crazy athlete. But there's just not many options if teams force the Steelers to be passed first and to operate in that way. And so we'll see what happens. Not every defense is going to be able to do what the Chargers did defensively in the run game though.
Adam Mazer
Yeah. And the Chargers have a solid defense. Metcalf, I think is obviously a hot topic here. He's now after having three of his last four games with eight or fewer PPR fantasy points. Just dreadful stuff. He's now number 33 per game in, in full PPR. And if you just look at his metrics, you know, yards per target, yards per out run, yards per catch, this and that, it, that's not the problem. It's the targets. He's on pace for 104 targets. Let's, whatever it is, it's the low one. Hundreds.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, it's.
Adam Mazer
He just, it's unbelievable. He just doesn't get it. It's seven targets this game. That's. Let's jump for joy. He got to seven. Usually he's five or six.
Dan Schneier
So they had to pass first for once. That's the thing. And they're not gonna have to. They're not go. They don't want to do that.
Adam Mazer
But they've been. Look, here are the past attempts for them. The last four games. Last five games. 30, 34, 36, 35, 31. And he's been terrible in three of those games.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Mazer
So it's more. It's more than that. He just. His target share is not good.
Dan Schneier
I don't mean like total volume like that. They entered the game 18th in pass attempts, I think I saw from Aaron Rodgers, which is mid pack or just under it. But a lot of these are off run action. And it's like to the tight end or it's like a leak route to. To one of those two tight ends or to the running back in the passing game. It's not like drop back. Metcalf's running an in breaker or backside dig and Rogers is seeing it and throwing it. You just don't see a lot of traditional wins for Metcalf in the past game.
Adam Mazer
All right, well, they get Cincinnati next week and I'd say, oh, that's great. That's awesome. Well, he struggled against Cincinnati two weeks.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I don't know. Right. I don't.
Adam Mazer
Scored eight points against them. Rogers had a good game, a huge game. Rogers threw four touchdowns in this game. I think three in that game. I think three or all four of them maybe went to the tight ends.
Dan Schneier
Yep.
Adam Mazer
All right. Any final thoughts on this one? Kamani Vidal?
Dan Schneier
Yeah, Vidal's a good runner. I don't know what's going to happen with the Hampton situation. Definitely somebody to keep stashing. And I think this game, you know, it further solidifies the role for. Warren is really good. He just needs the right game script and he needs to face off a match up against the right defenses.
Adam Mazer
Okay. And there you go. Sunday night, really bad game. Great. Actually, the one o' clock games are really fun. Everything else was. Was garbage. Like the Thursday afternoons were horrible. The Thursday was horrible.
Dan Schneier
It was horrible. You're right. Tonight might be really good, though.
Adam Mazer
I hope so. I really hope so. Okay, beyond the Box Score. This is not the only show this week, not the only episode. Jacob, what do we have to look forward to on beyond the Box Score?
Jacob Gibbs
We're just doing the classics, like keeping you guys on track this week. Dan and I don't have anything huge planned. Just like doing rest of season rankings, getting like. I don't want it to sound boring, though. There is a bunch to talk about.
Dan Schneier
Right?
Jacob Gibbs
Like there's a Bunch of shifting, running back rooms and all that. So getting into some player profiles, getting into rest season rankings, some trade targets. Just trying to get everything synced up here. As we head into the. The end of the season, make sure we're all on the same page.
Dan Schneier
I mean, listen, there's a reason they call me the plug God and Jacob the, the workhorse. Okay, listen, that was one of the worst plugs I've ever heard in the history of this show. But I still love Jacob and I get it. But let me just be clear. It's not just going to be playing the hits, which are also very good to play. And we've had some of our best shows while playing the hits. We're going to be delivering you some interesting notes. We have a show tomorrow that I'm excited about. 10 mind blowing stats. The first 10 weeks of fantasy football just gives you a little perspective on 10 different players and how to move forward with those players. So we've got good stuff coming. But I know, I know what Jacob was trying to say. There's a reason I am the plug God and he is.
Jacob Gibbs
We got a lot to talk about today and I want to talk about it, you know.
Dan Schneier
Okay, there we go.
Adam Mazer
The right. The plug God or the rundown killer.
Dan Schneier
You.
Adam Mazer
You make the. You make the call. All right, when we come back, we'll get your news and notes for you. We have a season ending injury you should know about. We'll be right back on fft.
Dan Schneier
It's football season and you gotta keep up with the action. Listen in to Pushing the Pile part of CBS Sports Podcast network with Mike Renner, Kyle Long and now me, JP Acosta for smart analysis of everything between the lines. With four episodes a week, Sunday night recaps, film review, power tiers and weekly.
Adam Mazer
Previews, you will know ball. Stick with us until one team lifts.
Dan Schneier
The Lombardi download and follow Pushing the.
Adam Mazer
Pile on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. What's up everyone? It's Siya Najad from Fantasy Football Today dfs, a weekly NFL daily fantasy show that's a part of the CBS Sports Podcast network. If you're looking for NFL game by game previews, which players stock is up or down and DFS strategies and advice. Mike McClure, Meg Shoup and I have.
Jacob Gibbs
You covered every single week.
Adam Mazer
Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long. Good luck. Carolina basketball isn't just a program. It's a legacy. I'm John Henson and we'll be the host of Tar Heel 247, a UNC basketball podcast for fans who bleed Carolina blue.
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No filters, no fluff, just hoop talk. The Tar Heel Ways. Subscribe now to Tar Heel247 at UNC.
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Adam Mazer
We will have a good time. Let's get ready to go. Quarterback News Jackson Dart left with a concussion. They get the packers in Week 11. Running back Chris Rodriguez shoulder Terrell Jennings left with an injuries on of a Knight ankle injury. Wide receiver is probably the biggest one. Here is Garrett Wilson re injuring his knee and we'll see what the future holds for Garrett Wilson and Devonte Adams with an oblique injury. They sounded optimistic that he'll be able to play in a huge game against the Seahawks in week 11. Arande Gadsden with the knee injury, he's going to have the mri and Dalton Kincaid left with a hamstring injury. So we did lose two Must start tight ends or close to must start tight ends. That's, that's a tough break and we'll see how long those injuries are just seeing. Now that C.J. stroud remains in the concussion protocol, that's not a huge surprise, but hopefully he can get back for week 11. He unfortunately will not have his teammate MJ Stewart, a safety for the Texans. He's out for the season. Minnesota linebacker Jonathan Garnard left in the second half. Another cornerback for the Commanders got hurt. Steelers cornerback Darius Slay left with a concussion. They're going to need him against the Bengals next week. Las Vegas offensive lineman Jackson Powers Johnson is going on ir. He could be out for the season. They've struggled to run the ball. They can't afford that injury and then unfortunately they're they're getting it. And that's, you know, those are the main defensive injuries. Before we get into the snap counts, let's talk about BetMGM. All right, it's time for football at BetMGM. Register with BetMGM to get instant access to the best variety of parlay selection features. No sweat and boost tokens, live betting options and much more. New players can receive up to 1500 dollars back in bonus bets with the bonus code fantasy if they don't win their first bet. You don't want to miss out on any of the hard hitting action at BetMGM. But place your money line, parlay bets and more today. Bet mgm. Make it legendary. All right, Jacob, what jumps out at you as we look at the. You know, the advanced metrics, the snap counts, those types of things.
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, let me give you another quick Jackson Smith run. Jackson Smith and JB rundown here. So the yard per route run rate just keeps going up. It's insane. 8.45 yards per route run in week 10. 8.
Dan Schneier
What the heck.
Jacob Gibbs
So that puts him at 4.67 on the year with a 6.53 rate in the two games following Seattle's bye week. For reference, the highest single season rate on true media which dates back to 2013 belongs to Tyree Kill at 3.3.85. So JSN is at 4.67. There have only been 10 receiver seasons above 3 in the 12 years that I have that data. So like the Tyree Kill season was something really Special. There's only two seasons above 3.5. It's Tyree kill and then Puka Nakua last year where he didn't even have a full season of data because he. I think he only played 12 games or whatever. So only 2 above 3.5. Only 12 above 3 over the past. No, only 10 above 3 over the past 12 years. Jason is approaching 5 yards per out run. Really ridiculous stuff. I did want to talk a little bit more about Seattle's offense because we got Rashid Shahid in. I was wondering if maybe we would see more three receiver sets. But there really was no change, no increase. 42% of their plays in the first half had three or more receivers on the field. Their season long rate is 40%. That's the third lowest. So I think basically for now at least it looks like Shahid is. Is just kind of in the Tori Horton role. It he rotated in a little bit more. It was an 85% route rate for JSN, 69% for CUP, 62 for Shaheed. So I A little bit more of the cup stuff went to shaheed in the first half. It was 80 for cup, 60 for Shahid. Again, no Tori Horton in this game.
Adam Mazer
Right. But just to draw a parallel, Jacoby Myers only had a 50 route participation rate. So my. So Shahid had a higher percentage than that. So you could just heed.
Jacob Gibbs
He's played in this offense though.
Adam Mazer
All right. But it is his first game with the team, so I don't guess. All right, fair enough. Fair point.
Jacob Gibbs
I want to talk about the running backs because I know it was another frustrating week for Kenneth Walker, but some of the underlying stuff is. Is continuing to like build and work in his direction where maybe it could be a good second half of the season. I know it probably feels like I'm kind of obsessed with the Seattle team, but I mean, they are putting up ridiculous points, you know, every week at this point. If you want to, like, learn more about this and why it's working so well and how defenses might adapt to it and how it could change, I'll point you in the direction of last week's Thursday episode on beyond the Box Score. We talk about matchups and stuff at the end, but like the beginning of the show, we got into the X's and O's of what Clint Kubiak is doing to dictate what defenses kind of feel like they have to do to try to defend him. And I think it's leading to Demons is really playing against the run in a way that is like opening up all this downfield stuff because they have so many big packages on the field with lots of tight ends, lots of fullbacks and running backs and stuff. So we're seeing these ridiculous JSN numbers. But I feel like at some point it has to shift and that would then maybe open things up more for the running back. So I continue to be like interested in these two running backs. We did see, you know, some red zone touchdowns in this game. And I think as things potentially shift over to the running backs, especially if one were to miss any time that these guys could be really good for fantasy and they're free, right? Like anybody who has this Walker or Charbonnet is like so sick of it. Big interesting guys to buy low on potentially. So the Kenneth Walker. The Kenneth walker stats are 52% first half snap rate for Walker in this game compared to 42% for Charbonnet and that we saw last week. It was like the first time all year that Walker got more snaps. And it is worth noting that he was injured at the beginning of the year. So I feel like things are kind of shifting over to him more. He did have a 50% first half red zone snap rate, had two carries, one of them from the three yard line. But it was Charbonnet 29, red zone snap, right. And George Holani who scored the red zone touchdowns. So extremely frustrating stuff for Walker. But in terms of just like upside at running back, this is probably the cheapest exposure to upside that you're going to get. Really good player and a really good offense that nobody wants on Their fantasy team.
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
Adam Mazer
If, if one of them gets hurt, you are talking about the league winning potential.
Jacob Gibbs
And even if they do, if defenses play them different, I think Walker could just start ripping off explosive plays and he could score touchdowns. We saw two running back touchdowns in this game. Like the office is playing so well. Yeah.
Adam Mazer
And you know, just to clarify, right, so it's two weeks in a row where he's gotten, I think a combined. Ken Walker combined three carries from the three yard line and he couldn't get in. When they get to the one yard line, that is Zach Charbonnet's territory. Basically every time, if they're at the two yard line, I don't know what's going to happen. But Walker's gotten to a few carries from the three. He can't get in. Charbonne will finish the job. From the one. I think, I think there was a pass interference call after Walker's carry from the three to set up first and goal from the one. And then Charbonnet was in for that. And then they had a false start penalty. And then I think Holani got the six yard touchdown run or something like that.
Dan Schneier
I can't remember. Yep.
Adam Mazer
All right. Anything else, Jacob? So that's Seattle. Oh, yeah. You know, I was, I was just looking at one of my leagues because I have JSN in two leagues. I only have him in one league where I can make a trade. The other is Scott Fishbowl, no trades. And I think I want to sell like mega high. And I was thinking, what would it take Jackson Smith and Jigba. I'm looking at the Justin Jefferson team because we're going to talk about him later. Jackson Jigba for Jefferson. And what, what would the second piece have to be?
Dan Schneier
Why would you do that to you? Well, tell me, tell me the idea behind that.
Adam Mazer
Like this guy has Jefferson and Barkley. Is that a ridiculous trade?
Dan Schneier
No, but like, I don't think it's a good one. Honestly, like, I, I'll be honest with you, like, I'm not sold. I want Jefferson on my team because then I have to start him every week.
Adam Mazer
I have no problem starting him every week. That's an overreaction. And I just think that as great as JSN is, this reminds me of when Aaron Judge was hitting 400. It's like, you know, Aaron Judge is the best player in, in baseball.
Dan Schneier
No, I like that you're trying to.
Adam Mazer
Sell high, but he's not gonna hit.
Dan Schneier
400, you know, but try to target players. Count on rest of Season. I don't know what makes you say that we can count on Justin Jefferson rest of season. When I think Thomas put In the comments, JJ McCarthy can't even complete 50 of his passes.
Adam Mazer
First of all, I said Saquon Barkley was going to be in that trade too. I didn't.
Dan Schneier
Justin. Jeff Jefferson was your key cog, though. Like, you started Jefferson.
Adam Mazer
I think he's a good buy low. I do. I think he had the third lowest yards per target of his career yesterday. He's. He's never going to be this bad again, you know, like this year anyway. In all likelihood, things will get very.
Dan Schneier
I don't think he was very good with Carson Wentz though, this year either. He what?
Adam Mazer
He hasn't been that good. He only has two touchdowns.
Dan Schneier
Right.
Adam Mazer
But he's still. He's still really good. He's still Justin Jefferson. Like, there's some regression coming for him.
Dan Schneier
I think he's really good, but that doesn't necessarily matter for fantasy.
Adam Mazer
I think that regardless of his quarterback situation, I think he will get better. That's my point. Okay, fine. Now I'm looking. I have jsn. I'm looking at the Abuka team.
Dan Schneier
There we go. Now we're talking.
Adam Mazer
Okay. I just don't think he has a second player that I like. He has a jailer. Oh, he has Ken Walker. But no, it couldn't be Walker and Abuka for jsn.
Jacob Gibbs
No, the. And the Jefferson thing could work out. Like Jefferson has a 32, 33 target share with JJ McCarthy, which I love. Like, it could get better. But yeah, I. I would have a really hard time trading Jason unless it's something I feel really good about. Like just overwhelming value coming back to me with like one guy who feels really, really good. I guess Saquon is basically that. Unless I have to. Unless I'm like, I'm starting terrible players every week and I need these flex villains, I'm not trading them.
Dan Schneier
Okay.
Adam Mazer
Anything else?
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, I've got more snap breaks and stuff. Is that where you want to stay there?
Adam Mazer
I have some stuff. Yeah, let's. I'll go through it here. Dan Campbell took over as Detroit's play caller. I didn't really have time to dig into this. You guys have anything on that by any chance?
Jacob Gibbs
I'm going to later, but not yet.
Adam Mazer
Okay.
Dan Schneier
They used Gibbs in the past game in the red zone. I liked, but I have to look into game as well more.
Adam Mazer
One of the things that really hurt the Vikings yesterday, they had eight false starts and they were Kind of complaining about some of the stuff the Ravens were doing. Not saying it was illegal, but maybe like a little cheap getting them to jump. But you commit eight false starts, you're putting your quarterback in a situation. Jacoby Myers 50% route participation rate. Shahid 62%. Bijan Robinson played 86% of the snaps. It just seems a little fluky that Algier had the big game. You want to compare Alec Pierce and Josh Downs? Josh Downs played half as many snaps as Alex Pierce as Al Pierce. It's not even so atypical. That happens all the time.
Jacob Gibbs
If you can get Bijan plus for Jason, I would do that.
Adam Mazer
Okay, I'll look.
Dan Schneier
There we go. Now we're talking.
Adam Mazer
Tyrone Tracy played 2/3 of the snaps. Darius Slayton had a good game. He only played 62% of the snaps because the hamstring injury. Colson Loveland, I was hoping for a little bit more of him and a little bit less of commit, but they were pretty even with their snaps and pretty even with their routes.
Dan Schneier
One thing I'll say just from having watched that game live and then on the, on the film, it felt like when they actually needed to get their pass game going, they did. And Loveland was the key cog in their bass game in the second half. So if I'm a coach and I watch the tape back and I see that, I will look to get him more involved earlier moving forward. I hope that's the case. I don't know if it is. The one catch he made on third and 10 was one of the best.
Adam Mazer
Cat Colson Loveland and also in that game. So DeAndre Swift ended up playing 62 of the snaps. Manangai 38. But I thought what was interesting was in the fourth quarter, it was pretty even in the first three quarters. In the fourth quarter when they made their comeback, Swift, maybe that's because they were throwing and you know. Yeah, Swift played 14 snaps and Manangai played four.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, that's gonna happen whenever they're in comeback throw mode. Two minute, four minute drill. That's going to be swift.
Adam Mazer
Well, that's pretty much every game for them. I hopefully you guys can look into this. I'm thinking maybe the Texans, they may have gotten their rookie receivers a little more involved. Christian Kirk, snap rate was pretty low. I think it was under 50% so that could be something that you guys will be on. And Aaron Jones played 71% of the snaps. Trayvon Henderson 84%. Mack Hollands 79 with Booty out. Rashad White 72% but basically splitting the carries with Tucker getting the passing downs work. Puka Nakua only played 51% of the snaps, which was a little low. I mean even though they, you know, were well ahead late in the game, it still strike struck me as low for Puka. You know, it's coming off these first.
Dan Schneier
Half splits on that just because the second half they were just up by so much.
Adam Mazer
I'll get that. Kamani Vidal played 93% of the snaps while I look up the Rams route participation rate in. That's Jalen Ramsey, not the rams in week 10 in the first half. I can do it right now. First quarter, second quarter, Puka Nakua's route participation rate was 66%, 67%. So he was, I would say not a full time player in this game. Coming off the injury, he's still great. All right, Jacob. I'm out of stats.
Jacob Gibbs
I've got a few. So you mentioned the young guys did play a little bit more and they got more targets for those receivers. Jalen, Noel and Xavier or not. But mix them up. Jane Higgins, Woody Marks played way more too. 78 snap rate, season high. This was his first start of the year. So good stuff there. He appeared to have a pretty bad injury at one point but came back in and played, had a good game. So that's all interesting. I don't think that Nick Chubb got hurt. Did anybody see anything on that he had. He barely played?
Adam Mazer
No, I saw him in the game late too, so I don't think it was that at all.
Jacob Gibbs
So they might just be moving to the young guys, which is interesting, not snap rate related, but I just want to point out like how freaking good Yvonne Hn has been. Of course he had a 40 point game. He had nine avoided tackles which now gives him four out of 10 games this year with eight or more avoided tackles per PFF's charting. Compare that to years one and two when he only had one game with eight or more avoided tackles out of 28 games. So we know the speed is there. We know the receiving is now there too. But like this, this like he's always had the vision of the speed to get these big plays, but now he's like stacking the ability to make people miss and get more consistent yardage over and over and over. And he's just so good for fantasies a cheat code because of the receiving. So he has a 20 or higher target share in seven out of 10 games this year. In his first two seasons that was only four games out of 28. He has a 25 or higher target share in 50 of his games this year compared to 7% of his games in the first two years. So he's just leveled up and like, you never know how much you can trust Miami's offense, but, like, he's kind of on this CMC type of trajectory for fantasy. He does it in a little bit of a different way because the big plays, but the, the fantasy outlook for him is just so, so good. If this offense doesn't completely tank and they just beat the Bills, they looked a lot better, you know, so maybe you get lucky and we get this all year because, like, if we do, it looks really good for him. Looks really good for Jalen Waddle as well. Looking like a potential wide receiver. One type of player for fantasy. My other two notes, you hit on Swift, but I just wanted to, like, drive home the. The point here, like, how good it was. So 61 snap rate is his highest since week four. He was the starter. He had a 71 snap rate, winning the red zone, 13 carries for 80 yards, 57 route rate. That's good. Eight targets. So he was running back four this week and expected fantasy points per the fantasy point stata model behind only Jonathan Taylor, Devon HN and Christian McCaffrey. This run game has worked really well all year. And Chicago, I know it was like a weird game where they ended up playing behind and stuff, but, like, I feel like there's enough underlying stuff that's been kind of coming together for this offense as the year goes on that, like, I have some hope that even though the schedule is kind of brutal down the stretch, that Swift might be able to still be pretty good for fantasy. So I. I just thought everything was really encouraging because I was. I was curious if Managa might have a larger role, but really, I mean, it was a 39 snap right for him. He had one red zone attempt and happened to get in. But it was, you know, Swift playing the bulk of the. The snaps in the. In the red zone still and looking like the clear starter.
Adam Mazer
But, you know, I. I feel like I misinterpreted my own stat earlier about the two running backs. And Brian Dable got fired, by the way. Whoa.
Dan Schneier
That just happened.
Adam Mazer
Yeah. Let's go, Big blue Banter. Did you really just.
Dan Schneier
Oh, no.
Adam Mazer
You are unbelievable.
Dan Schneier
No, no, I didn't.
Jacob Gibbs
What do you expect? You just dropped that autumn randomly. And by the way.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, well, actually, they were saying it in the chat.
Dan Schneier
Whoops.
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah.
Dan Schneier
That was surprising. I'm sorry, Adam.
Adam Mazer
That was not surprising. At all.
Dan Schneier
I. I had one total before this.
Adam Mazer
No, no, I thought you meant the day before. The table firing was not surprising.
Dan Schneier
That wasn't for the Giants. It is though. This. They don't often do these in season firings.
Adam Mazer
I said it on the show yesterday. I mean, it just everyone seemed to be on the same page. He couldn't lose another game like that. Ridiculous. But anyway, wow. They split the carries, they split the reps almost evenly. The first three quarters they were going drive by drive by drive. So I think if Swift had more work in the red zone, it was either his drive led him there because Menanga had a touchdown early in the game, or it was just all in the fourth quarter when they were in comeback mode. So I don't know. I. I'm curious. I'm not gonna say one way or the other. I guess I, I could see your optimism. I mean, he outplayed Manangai for sure. If people expected Manangai to just come in and take the job and it's like, hey, Swift was playing really well before he missed that game with an injury. So it was looking like kind of a bad split. But then if they're trailing, it's going to be Swift. Okay.
Jacob Gibbs
He was playing pretty well. But Mananga was already like kind of taking the job. Like he wasn't taking it over entirely, but he was taking a lot. And then he had like the biggest game of any rookie all year. Like almost 200 scrimmage yards and a big win. You know, like to me it felt realistic that he could at least take a really meaningful role.
Adam Mazer
I think. Yeah, no, I wasn't. He. I think he has, I think he has taken a meaningful role. I think it's still a little cloudy. I, I wouldn't, I wouldn't buy into DeAndre Swift as a must start running back on a week to week basis, I guess.
Jacob Gibbs
Ooh.
Adam Mazer
Dan Schneier, interim head coach.
Dan Schneier
Who is it you? Oh, me. You're telling me there was an interim head coach name too? I was about to. You know what? On air again. No, I'm kidding.
Adam Mazer
Firing as expected as better breathing while wearing a nose strip. So, yeah, that could have been worded better, but that's a funny joke. All right.
Dan Schneier
I stand by the nose strip. I golf with the nose strip this weekend like a whole new man. Next year when we play tennis, Adam, I will be wearing that nose drip. I think it will lead to at least three more. Three more games for me. Great. Yeah.
Adam Mazer
Over. Over five sets maybe so. Oh, no timetable for Bucky Irving. We're just seeing.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, that's. That's frustrating.
Adam Mazer
And J.K. dobbins. I didn't mention that injury. Someone yelled at me in the chat for it. You were right too though. And Jacobins has a foot injury and we're still waiting to hear. I mean, it's been four days. Surprised we haven't heard anything.
Jacob Gibbs
We've heard plenty from him. He's like constantly venting on Twitter about the hip tackle needing to be banned. So hope he's doing all right.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, I think we'll take a break and get to our buy or sell portion on Travion Henderson, Zay Flowers, Jerry Judy, Justin Jefferson, Troy Franklin, and the quarterback position as a whole. We'll be right back on Fantasy Football today.
Jacob Gibbs
When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the.
Adam Mazer
Secure messaging app that brings the whole group together.
Jacob Gibbs
Use polls to settle dinner plans, send event invites and pin messages so no.
Adam Mazer
One forgets mom 60th and never miss a meme or milestone.
Jacob Gibbs
All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone. Learn more@WhatsApp.com what's good, y'?
Adam Mazer
All? It's Vaughn Miller, Super Bowl MVP Sagmaster, and now your host of Free Range. This is where NFL meets Real Talk. Every week I'm bringing you inside the game from locker room stories to league wide headlines. You want football iq, locker room insight and real conversations with the people shaping the league. Welcome to Free Range with Von Miller, where nothing is off limits and every down counts new episodes every Wednesday. Listen and follow Free Range with me, Von Miller, wherever you get your podcast. What's up everyone? It's the counselor of Cash, Sia Najad from the Early Edge, a daily sports betting show powered by Sportsline and part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. If you're looking for the best bets, picks and analysis for the day in sports, we're your one stop shop. We're locked in every day with NFL bets and player props, college football picks and so much more. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Subscribe to the SportsLine YouTube page to watch us live at 10am Eastern Time every weekday. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long. Good luck, Jacob. I didn't mean to step all over the Swift stuff. Do you think he's a must start running back?
Jacob Gibbs
No.
Dan Schneier
Okay.
Jacob Gibbs
I. Yeah. If I felt if it sounded defensive at all. It was just that I didn't want the Menanga thing to be downplayed. Like, I think it was realistic that he could have earned a. A leading role in the backfield where Swift was more just like a specialized player. Like, maybe he plays a little bit more in passing downs and then he comes in for like outside zone type runs and stuff like that. But the bulk of the work goes to Manangai. And I do think it's meaningful that right away that was not the case. In fact, Swift did look like the lead back got the start. Everything was arrow up for him, even if it was. Not to say he's gonna have 70 of the work going forward. Like, what you alluded to with the way that the drives play out, that's definitely something that happens week to week. It can be kind of random with these backs. Yeah. But like, the fact that it did work out that way can only be good, I think. Yeah.
Adam Mazer
Okay. All right, cool. We're on the same page then. All right, let's do some buy or sell here. I want to thank our audience for your submissions here. This is from Yo Carson by Travion Henderson. Sell Zay Flowers. Do you more or less agree with that sentiment, Dan? By Travion Henderson. Sell Zay Flowers.
Dan Schneier
I'm going to be the last on that bandwagon with Zay Flowers. I am not selling Zay Flowers by any means at this point. Why would you disagree? So.
Adam Mazer
Oh, nice. Okay.
Dan Schneier
Believe in Zay Flowers. Believe in. Look, the touchdowns haven't come for him yet. They came at the beginning of the season. We need some better game script and we need them to get in situations where they need to throw the football more often. But he's been very good on his limited target, so I'm still in on that. As far as Travion Henderson goes, that's a tricky one for me. We broke down one of the plays together as a group, us three, before we started, before we started recording, and it was like, well, it's pretty. The second touchdown was. I don't want to say luck based, but like the Tampa Bay bucket Bucks defensive back has contained on the outside. He's spilling everything back inside. So, you know, Henderson kind of cuts it back inside for what should be a no yard gain and just gets bounced out by his lineman. So it's like in some ways lucky. I don't know. I'm not there yet with Henderson.
Jacob Gibbs
Ain't no luck. About 22 miles per hour.
Dan Schneier
No.
Jacob Gibbs
That's what I'm gonna say. Players, the ball carriers with a 22 that have hit 22 miles per hour this year are Brian Thomas Jr. Jameer Gibbs and Jonathan Taylor. And now Travion Henderson.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, this is the.
Dan Schneier
You know what I want to buy on the talent and the team is really good. The context is there. I just want to. It's so hard for me to trust Josh McDaniel's offense when it comes to like a running one running back within that offense.
Adam Mazer
Well, also, you know this. So here's the picture of the first one, the old bump and bounce. He bumps into his lineman and bounces outside and scores a touchdown. Here's the. That's the second one. Here's a picture of the first one. Did Hunter Henry get away with a little holding there? Pretty close but absolutely terrible defense by Tampa Bay. They had no safety back there. I don't know what they were thinking. And then this hole opens up and he just runs right through it for. That was the 55 yard touchdown I think he had. He is the second Patriots running back I believe to have two 50 yard carries in a game. The other was Lawrence Maroney and it's exciting. And also with Travion Henderson playing and Ramon Dre Stevenson out, he's had two straight games with a 70% route participation rate which is way up. And that's usually where, where Ramondre is at. My skepticism is, you know, first of all that second touchdown was a little bit lucky, but he's a playmaker, right? Like if he bounces to the outside he's going to run 22 miles per hour and make something happen that other guys can't. But I don't know that they're going to trust him in between the tackles. This play was in between the tackles, right? This, this second, this first touchdown run, most of his good runs are outside. So I feel like Travion will be the chain. Maybe the kind of change of pace guy Ramandre could still be the lead back. I. I don't know. I said on yesterday's show. I really feel like he could be a league winner or one of the best sell highs. You know, I just don't know what they're going to do here and I don't know. Andre is coming back.
Jacob Gibbs
If you look at his schedule, rest of season depending on what app you use, you know it has green, red, they're literally all green. Matchups. Yep, it's Jets, Bengals, Giants, then buy and then about like two potential shootouts against the Bills and the Ravens and then the jets again and the Bills.
Adam Mazer
Have A terrible run.
Dan Schneier
Sold. Sold. I'm back in.
Jacob Gibbs
Right. Like, that's so nice.
Dan Schneier
That schedule is just too good.
Jacob Gibbs
I'd be really surprised if he goes away completely. Even if it is like the role you're talking about where it's like maybe 35, 40% of the snaps or something like that. That's not ideal. But you still can probably flex him. And then there's. If anything happens to Remindre, like, we've got. We've got this. I wanted to point out that he is. He's playing well. He's playing better, I think, which is relevant because the increase in the workload has mostly been a product of teammate injuries. But weeks one through seven, he had a 15 avoided tackle rate. Over the past three weeks. I. I even removed the big runs just to like, get a, you know, just down to down. What are we looking at here? 29 avoided tackle rate. So that's almost double. And then he had 2.4 yards after contact per rush. Weeks one through seven, the past three weeks, with those long runs removed, runs of 30 or more yards removed, still 3.22 yards after contact per rush, which is a really good number. So I do think he's. He's playing a lot better. The vision is, I. I mean, if you watch his college tape, like he was doing this all the time. Right. Just running into lineman and then bouncing it around like.
Dan Schneier
Right.
Jacob Gibbs
The question was, can you do this against pros already? Yes. Like, the speed is very, very real.
Adam Mazer
Would you rather have Swift or Henderson rest of season?
Dan Schneier
It's a great question.
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, I think I would. I think I would choose Swift.
Dan Schneier
I would. Before listening to this analysis from Jacob, choose Swift. I think now listening to that schedule, man, like, I think I'm choosing Henderson. That's such a juicy schedule. Down the stretch run. And I've looked at Swifts before this because I have him on one team. It's not a great schedule, I don't think. Down the stretch run, the chat says.
Jacob Gibbs
Henderson is a league winner.
Dan Schneier
Isn't this might be.
Jacob Gibbs
Isn't this hilarious though? Like three weeks ago, like, I. So I tweet out there every week. I tweet out like the rookies, like, here's every touch from this week, you know, and you can follow and look at each week. Three weeks ago is. His video was 15 seconds long. Like, that's. That was every touch for that week. And everybody was just like, he's dead. He's done. Like, I'm so sick of this. Drop him, drop him, drop him. And now it's like, yep, he's the league winning rookie for sure.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, that's all it takes. So Dan, I think people want your reaction to Dable getting fired and Mike Kafka being named the head coach or the interim head coach.
Dan Schneier
Interim head coach. Yeah. I mean it had to be done. I think Dable's done a good job, better job than people realize of getting Jackson dark comfortable and giving him concepts. And even in some of these games, like winning the chess match last year, I mean last game against the Bears, he did a great job against Dennis Allen, but he's not a good coach. He's a very bad head coach in every other way and facet. He coaches scared. He's blown an insane amount of fourth quarter leads with the same script every time. It's short field goals in the red zone. It's punting on the opponent's side of the field. It's run, run pass and punt game script toward the end of games with leads. So he had to go two collapses like the ones he had. Denver and Chicago are more than enough. As far as Kafka goes, he'll get his little run. He's had multiple head coach interviews before this. I want to see what, what stamp he puts on the offense. We don't even know what the offense is going to look like. Like Jackson Dart may not play. And I'll say this, Adam, now that he's gone, Brian Dable. I hope Kafka is of the mindset of if Jackson dark can't play, if it's one or two week concussion, it's Jamis Winston time. We're not going back to R us. It's Jameis Winston for real.
Adam Mazer
Yep. I think it I. Please. Russell is. Whistle is. Wilson is just not capable of moving these on.
Dan Schneier
Dude, he's done.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, he is. All right, so if your team has, if your team signs Russell Wilson next year to be their stopgap quarterback, sell everyone in fantasy on that team. What was the big disagreement on Zay Flowers?
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, I've got some stats that I think will be interesting to people and honestly, like he looks very similar to Justin Jefferson. So I think that'll be a good segue here. So in games that Lamar Jackson has played, he's averaged 14 PPR points per game. That's. That would be wide receiver 20. That's like right ahead of lad McConkey and Quentin Johnson. I think all these guys kind of fit into a similar range where the wide receiver twos that we know are really good players and there's upside for more, but something about the role isn't quite locking it into that wide receiver one range. And for him it is the lack of involvement in the red zone. 5.6% target per run rate in the red zone with Lamar this year, which is just way, way, way too low. So he has to score his touchdowns outside of the red zone, which he can do. He's actually had a number of plays already this year. He almost did. And he got, you know, brought down to the one yard line. We know he has, you know, the electric athleticism to get long plays and turn them into touchdowns. And Lamar can hit him in the intermediate range for these long plays. Overall with Lamar Jackson, he has a 26 target share, which is actually down slightly from his number on the year. 29 on the year 31. First read rate with Lamar. 34 rate overall on the year. That's higher than Rishi Rice. It's just below Justin Jefferson. So the volume is really, really good. With lamar, he's averaged 2.52 yards per out run. So the volume is really good and the player is really good. That would be wide receiver three, just ahead of like Drake London and Monroe St. Brown. Those guys are at the 2.5 mark. And then you've got obviously Puka and Jason way above everybody else. So I think everything like sets up well in terms of the, the player. And then like when the mark comes back, being able to potentially like multiply that into some big numbers, you know, really high efficiency and downfield success. We just need touchdowns. And I think the fact that they're facing the rest of the season schedule to me looks like one that could facilitate some of these broken plays and touchdowns. You never want to predict that, but it's like they've got the jets, they've got two matchups against the Bengals. Those are two of the worst tackling teams in the NFL. So you could have long touchdowns there. And then week 16 and 17 are much better tackling teams, but they're both potential shootouts. It's the Patriots and the Packers. So like the worst case is that he just stays where he's at, which is fine. It's like a low end wide receiver too, and he's been really surprisingly consistent in that role. And I think, I think that's because of the massive volume. But then there is this upside that if he can score some touchdowns, get some long plays, everything there like is wide receiver two and then it can only elevate from there. So that's where I'm at With him is I think the price is going to be basically that wide receiver 2 range. But there is upside for him to, to pass that.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, that's a great way to break it down the floor is what he's already doing. Why would it fall any further and the ceiling, which you're not having to pay for is crit is still high. I don't want to say crazy high. It's hard to say that he just doesn't have enough involvement in their red zone offense for that.
Adam Mazer
Yeah. But my optimism for Flowers, I'm going to give you his 17 game pace with Lamar Jackson this year, six games compared to his 17 game pace last year. If you remove week 18 when he played 20% of the snaps last year, 121 targets this year, 119 last year, 78 catches this year, 91 last year, 1112 yards this year, 1,258. That is 13 more catches and about 140 more yards last year, four touchdowns this year three. You talk about the terrible route per the target route per route run rate in the red zone. Last year he had seven red zone, six green zone, nine end zone targets. The end zone target number is actually not bad. The red zone green zone is not good. But seven red zone, six green zone, nine end zone targets for Flowers last year. This year in six games with Lamar Jackson, he has one red zone, one green zone, one end zone target. So I think I would say even this route, this participation level in the red zone green zone end zone is lower than I would expect it to be. And we've mentioned Zay Flowers on the Wednesday show as not you guys, but Jamie Heath day as a possible buy low. And I've been pretty skeptical, but now I actually think I'm in because he is so good and I think eventually he's going to catch touchdowns. I said this yesterday, but it just. Yeah, you guys said it right. I mean he's not having a bad season with Lamar Jackson. He's usually getting you 12 or more PPR fantasy points. If he starts scoring some touchdowns, which he's capable of doing, then there are going to be some good weeks left. But you know, you don't want to pay up too much. But I think this is, this may be the lowest of Zay Flowers value all year.
Jacob Gibbs
The Ravens are tied with the Dolphins for 31st and offensive plays per game too, which I think really has affected things here.
Dan Schneier
Wow. Correct.
Adam Mazer
All right. The real Luke, I don't think we're gonna get to all of our topics unless we set like a time limit so maybe we'll just try to do three or four minutes per topic.
Dan Schneier
Rapid fire.
Adam Mazer
The real Luke says buy or sell Justin Jefferson is a top 24 wide.
Jacob Gibbs
Receiver resting season two quick stats. I already gave 32 target share with JJ McCarthy. He's only though with that only had 9.5 catchable expected fantasy points per game. Wow. Which puts him in the same range for the year as Zay Flowers, Lad McConkey, Marvin Harrison Jr. Cortland Sutton, DK Metcalf. Some guys were really good players but like the the situation, something about it isn't quite right. So for them to climb above that they have to be really, really good and just kind of run hot with variants. That's kind of weirdly I think where we're at with Justin Jefferson. I've, I've had him like in that wide receiver two range in rest season rankings for a while now. I think that's basically where we're at.
Dan Schneier
Yes. That's from Thomas Schaefer produce producer Thomas coming in the clutch here. Here's Justin Jefferson's average receiving yards per game with every starting quarterback he's played with Kirk Cousins 98.9 or with these starting quarterbacks he's played with some other guys. Carson Wentz 95.4. That was five games. Four games with Cousins was the sample size 90.2 yards per game with Sam Darnold 17 game sample size 52.3 with J.J. mcCarthy and look, things are going to get better. There it is. There it is. It wasn't going to get better but that's like half the receiving yards per game. Is every other one of those quarterbacks in smaller sample size obviously. I mean look, the yards will come up the target chairs there. Will the touchdowns be there? I mean JJ McCarthy profiles to me rest of season as a maybe 1, 2 if you're lucky, passing touchdown kind of guy every week he'll run some in obviously. Obviously. But doesn't help Jefferson. So as far as like we're limiting him to the question which is like a wide receiver too. Backhand wide receiver 2. He should be able to fit into that, right?
Adam Mazer
Of course.
Dan Schneier
Yeah. But as far as the hope of like you may be trading a JSN for Jefferson as your main piece in return as Adam suggested earlier. Just kidding. I know he also included Barkley in that. No, I'm out on that.
Adam Mazer
I would take him a hundred times out of 100 over Zay flowers.
Dan Schneier
I'd much rather say Flowers. Not much rather I'd Rather slightly. Rather Zay Flowers. Not much.
Adam Mazer
That's insane. Is it? Yes, Justin.
Dan Schneier
One has J.J. mcCarthy, the other has Lamar Jackson.
Adam Mazer
He just had 12 targets. I mean, look, obviously they threw a lot more than what they wanted.
Dan Schneier
Ugly targets.
Jacob Gibbs
Like.
Adam Mazer
I'll make any bet with you for anything. I mean, like, I'll spot you three games in tennis. If I lose, like, there's no way I'm losing.
Dan Schneier
I would never need you to.
Adam Mazer
Justin.
Dan Schneier
Jeff.
Adam Mazer
The second set was 64.
Dan Schneier
Back that up. I will never, ever ask for you to be spotting me anything in tennis.
Adam Mazer
Good, because you're not going to get it, because I will smash you. I don't want it. Let's hear from the chat. Who would you rather have, Jefferson or Flowers? You can just give us probably Jefferson.
Dan Schneier
Look, probably Jefferson.
Adam Mazer
It's gonna be Jefferson, by the way.
Dan Schneier
Not probably. Not. It's not a guarantee. All right, we'll do some kind of fun bat. I mean, I don't even. The Flowers is, like, not a great guy to go with, but. Fine, fine.
Jacob Gibbs
I think they're really similar. That's why I gave the expected fantasy points on catchable targets. During the JJ McCarthy starts, it's 9.5. Flowers is rate on the year is 9.9. And then it's just like, what can you do beyond that? They're both really, really good players with the ball in their hands and a getting separation. I know. Like, everybody's gonna go Jefferson, but, like, I don't know if people realize how good Flowers has been.
Adam Mazer
He's not really Jefferson, though. I mean.
Jacob Gibbs
No, he's not. No, he's not. But Lamar Jackson is way, way, way better than J.J. mcCarthy.
Adam Mazer
He is at this, but. But, no, I'm not gonna shave my head, but his wife's busy.
Dan Schneier
Too busy to shave.
Adam Mazer
Okay, that was funny. What was I gonna say? Oh, can we maybe, maybe lighten up a little bit on JJ McCarthy? The guy has made four starts in his career.
Dan Schneier
I know.
Adam Mazer
I think it's possible he could get a little bit better before.
Dan Schneier
Yeah. Coming along to some extent.
Adam Mazer
Oh, big time. That is a good defense. That's tough to pass against. All right, let's get to our next topic.
Dan Schneier
I gotta look at the schedules to make that bet if I wanted to actually make that bet.
Adam Mazer
You know what? I don't have to look at the schedules because I'm so confident in that bet that.
Dan Schneier
Okay.
Adam Mazer
All right.
Dan Schneier
Says I need Dan in my fantasy league right now. Well, guess what, Dinesh? You probably don't want to be in too many of My leagues, CBS sports leagues. I'm doing great in all of them. So you want to join us next year? Go join. Go join the FFP Open Schneider Division, where I'm in first or second place. Come on.
Adam Mazer
Nobody play.
Dan Schneier
Come play, Dinesh. Come play.
Adam Mazer
Not only.
Dan Schneier
He's.
Jacob Gibbs
Not only.
Adam Mazer
He's the plug God. Even for his own fantasy teams.
Dan Schneier
No. Big Burger is going through a little rough stretch, though. I think I might lose again this week.
Jacob Gibbs
Oh, probably. Probably Troy Franklin over Justin Jefferson and Zay Flowers, right?
Adam Mazer
Oh, you want to go to Troy Franklin or Jerry Judy right now?
Jacob Gibbs
I definitely want to talk about Jefferson.
Dan Schneier
Will probably outscore Flowers. I get. I do not want to talk about Justin Jefferson. He's a phenomenal player. But, like, we know there's some reliance in fantasy on quarterback play otherwise. Like, why would Trey or Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride be so much better? Specifically McBride without Kyler Murray?
Adam Mazer
All right, I think we're done here. Let's go to Troy Franklin. And Nick Drum says buy herself Troy Franklin, who's coming off five catches for 40 yards and one touchdown on nine targets.
Jacob Gibbs
The numbers on Troy Franklin and Cortland Sutton are crazy. 27% target share over the past month for Franklin compared to 19% for Cortland Sutton. 47% areardage here for Franklin compared to 27% for Sutton. So that's crazy on. On its face, right? 47 to 27%. What's really even crazier than that is that Sutton has more catchable air yards than Franklin during that time. Franklin is getting so many of these bombs from Knicks that amount to nothing. Leads the NFL and uncatchable air yards over the past month. So I did just want to start with the base level stats. They're clearly favoring Franklin. If you take a little bit further and look at the. The first read targets each of the past four games, Troy Franklin is at a higher first retarget rate than Sutton. In fact, his lowest first retarget rate over the past month in any game is higher than Sutton's highest first retarget rate. So for whatever reason, they've shifted things where it's like Franklin is the. The top target on the team. It's by design. They get short stuff to him. They also take long shots to him. The result is 16 PPR points per game over the past month for Franklin compared to 11 for Sutton. So it's. It's not good. It's for like. It's all focused on Franklin and it's not even actually. I mean, 16 is is no joke. But like I don't know if we can count on it with Bonex playing the way that he is. And then the result is like can you use any of these guys? Marvin Mims being out has definitely helped Troy Franklin. So when we get back to like kind of normal, if they're running it through Franklin, I don't know if I'm confident enough in the Nick's the Franklin connection to start him even with this great usage. Whereas like with Sudden I was confident even though you knew it might be a little bit up and down with Nick because he's so freaking good. He can just win these one on ones no matter who's on him and he can go get the ball. So it's just, it's just weird right now. Like I don't want to start Sudden and I don't really want to start Franklin unless I have to.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I think part of it is like. But at least as far as the first read stuff goes is they've had to change schematically what they're doing offensively due to Bonix's struggles. I think that's the only way to look at it. Right. He was playing better football last year. They also had a lot of plays last year that were designed like deep over routes to Cortland Sutton where Knicks would break pocket, bootleg out and like hit those over routes. The only real time I ever really see Nick's accurate is when he's on the move, which is a weird thing for a quarterback. It seems like when he's in the pocket his feet are moving at all times, never set and his accuracy is terrible. But when he's on the move and he doesn't have to actually set his feet, he kind of all arm throw it. He seems to be more accurate. So they need to get back to doing like those route combinations with Sutton on the deep over and Nick's just rolling out and hitting him. I don't really know what other ways to get him the football. He's not really operating any kind of drop back pass game where you can throw like timing routes, outbreakers or deep routes with any kind of ball placement that would like lead to catches for Sudden. Right?
Jacob Gibbs
I mean like yeah man, I don't want to talk about Knicks. We do it all the time. People saw we got him on the island game and people saw like it.
Dan Schneier
Was a bad island game, man. If you watch that on Prime Vision it was. It was tough to watch.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, it's a shame. Would you rather have Sutton or Franklin Rest of season.
Dan Schneier
I think Franklin, because they're going to scheme him more offense.
Adam Mazer
You can't take Franklin. He hasn't been. He hasn't.
Dan Schneier
I don't really want either. So it's just like a. Whatever type of situation. You know what, Sutton can be offense for Franklin.
Adam Mazer
You know what Sutton can be Franklin can't be that. There's no way Franklin is more upside. He might have a safer floor.
Dan Schneier
But no, I didn't say he has more upside. I know.
Adam Mazer
So let's just take the upside. Come on.
Dan Schneier
All right, I guess I'll take the upside. But the problem is at least with Franklin, I can bench him a lot of weeks because I'm not name branded into starting him. With Sutton, I might be like, ah, I gotta start Sutton again. This might be the week. Like so in some ways I'd rather Franklin just for that standpoint.
Jacob Gibbs
The role has been so ridiculously good for Franklin. It's like everything. It's deep targets, it's first three targets when they get in the red zone. He has like one of the highest target shares of any freaking player in the league. Like Kevon.
Dan Schneier
Kevon said it best prefer Franken because he's easier to bench.
Jacob Gibbs
Let's go.
Adam Mazer
There we go.
Dan Schneier
That's where I'm at.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, then why don't you just take him over? I'll take him over. Justin Jefferson. All right. We're gonna skip Jerry Judy, but you know, he's a good player. He finally had a good game.
Dan Schneier
But we're just not really sell any Dylan Gabriel receiver at any point for me.
Adam Mazer
Okay, let's see.
Dan Schneier
I'm not gonna get the jets defense.
Adam Mazer
I mean, I'll talk about Judy a lot on the show tomorrow. The waiver wire. The guy that we were drafting in the seventh round finally had a good game. I think it's at least worth worth considering here. And Najoku's not as involved as he was. His route participation rate's been down. All right, this is from Canada. Jim, buy or sell? There is not a single. We have three minutes left, guys.
Dan Schneier
Buy or sell Canada.
Adam Mazer
So I have to go do.
Dan Schneier
Kidding. Just kidding. Just kidding. Just joking.
Adam Mazer
I don't know. It's not even a good joke. I have to go do episode with Jamie. So I got three to four minutes left. Buy or sell? There's not a single quarterback worth drafting in the top 50 overall next season.
Jacob Gibbs
So there's. I mean if Patrick Mahomes has 23 fantasy points per game and four point passing touchdown leagues, that's the Only quarterback ahead of Josh Allen, Lamar and Herz. So like we were 3 for 4 on the elite quarterbacks this year. That's a really good hit rate. That's why you've taken a shot on these quarterbacks is because they historically have a really good hit rate. There have been some higher upside hits in that round 34 range. Jackson, Smith, A. Jigba, Jonathan Taylor if you got him in round three. But there've been a ton of misses too. Chase Brown, A.J. brown, Amari and Hampton, Terry McLaurin, George Kittle, Marvin Harrison Jr. Kenneth Walker, even like Lad McConkey, T. Higgins have been up and down.
Adam Mazer
Yeah, totally.
Jacob Gibbs
The only real difference is there's way more quarterbacks scoring 20 plus points per game this year, which I don't. Maybe you can predict that. Like we were there on Drake May. But some of them are kind of random. You know, Matthew Stafford has an 8% touchdown rate. Only Lamar Jackson had a higher rate last year. His career rate with the Rams is 5%. So like that's including this year's. I, I mean he's on. Matthew Stafford's on pace for 47 passing touchdowns over 17 games. Like I think some of this has to probably pull back a little bit. Even Drake May, 6.6% passing touchdown rate. The only guys that hit that rate last year were Lamar Baker, Jared Goff and Joe Burrow. So like maybe he sustains that. Justin Herbert is another guy who's averaging 20 plus. He's on pace for 709 drop backs compared to 573 last year. 517 in 2023. Herbert already has more rushing yards this year than he has in any season. So to me like a lot of these have been kind of random and I do think that like you're probably safest sticking with that quarterback in the Round 34 range, even if it maybe isn't the highest upside path because there are. There were a lot of busts in that. In that range this year.
Dan Schneier
Yeah, yeah.
Adam Mazer
Quarterbacks are safer also.
Dan Schneier
Sorry, go ahead, Adam.
Adam Mazer
No, yeah, just go ahead, go ahead.
Dan Schneier
There just were also some obvious hits though that we were targeting later. Jacob.
Jacob Gibbs
Like yeah, Davis Mills. Davis Mills was QB1 this week.
Dan Schneier
Well, yeah, there's that but Drake May was like a glaring value that was so obvious and there's guys going to be that every year. So it's just, it depends what league you playing. If you play in auction leagues, I think it's a lot different than playing in a snake draft where you can't just sit and Wait, to get a. If you know Drake May is like an obvious value. You can't really get him unless I mean you can, but that was our.
Jacob Gibbs
Plan this year was like you can just get Drake May, but what if you don't get Drake May? If somebody reaches for him around nine then we're like, okay, well that's what I mean.
Dan Schneier
That's why you gotta play an auction league.
Jacob Gibbs
Then you go with J.J. mcCarthy and that didn't work out at all, you know, or like for you it's like go with Trevor Lawrence or Sprout or whatever. That didn't work out wrong. I think it's a lot of hubris to just assume that like you're gonna hit the third round wide receiver and you're gonna get the quarterback and it's going to be the right one. Yeah, it's like you can just grab the third round quarterback and it's probably going to hit is where we're at with these guys.
Dan Schneier
Good point.
Adam Mazer
Last thing, just taking a look at the amount of quarterbacks who are averaging 22 or more fantasy points per game in 6 point per passing touchdown league. Jacob talked about 4.6 point per passing touchdown leagues. How many are averaging 22 or more per game? And that would be 12 right now. Trees looking. Yeah, that's a lot. But it's not a lot compared to, you know, 10, nine, eight, seven, six, five, four years ago. So I looked at the last decade of how many quarterbacks average 22 points per game from weeks one through 10. Remember it's 12 this year. So beginning in 2015, here are the amount of quarterbacks again, 22 points per game or more from weeks one through 10 in 2015, 11 then 12, 7, 15, 8, 8, 16, 12. But the last three years only 8, 8 and 5. That was 20, 22, 20, 23 and 4, 8, 8 and 5 quarterbacks have hit 22 or more per game weeks one through 10 this year 12. Then I looked how about at the end of the season and in the previous 10 years there's been a decrease of, you know, quarterbacks who are averaging 22 or more fantasy points per game six times. One time it was the same three times. There was an increase of plus one, plus two and plus four. There have been two years or been minus six or one year, minus six in one year, minus six, one year, minus four, minus three, minus three. It's more likely, I think based on the last decade to have a decrease in quarterback production over the next half of the season than an increase maybe that's because of weather at the end of the year. I think that could be part of it. Yeah. But also this year was the was another year where they in probably I haven't seen average field position, but they did something to increase offense. So I'm not all that surprised with the new kickoff rules that that we just have more points. But quarterbacks are just having a huge year this year. It's an amazing season for quarterbacks. All right, I have to go. I'm sorry. Thank you very much to Dan and Jacob.
Dan Schneier
One interesting news. Joe Burrow will return to practice day in a limited capacity. Wow.
Adam Mazer
Yes, he did. That is huge. All right, we'll talk to you tomorrow with the waiver wire. Subscribe to the beyond the Box Score feed and get all their great content. Thanks for watching Liz, everybody. See you.
Jacob Gibbs
Paramount Podcasts Tulsa is my home now.
Adam Mazer
Academy Award nominee Sylvester Stallone stars in the Paramount plus original series, Tulsa King.
Jacob Gibbs
His distillery is a very interesting business. And we got to know the enemy.
Adam Mazer
From Taylor Sheridan, co creator of Landman.
Jacob Gibbs
What are you saying? If you think you're gonna take me out, it's gonna be really difficult.
Adam Mazer
Tulsa King new season now streaming exclusively on Paramount Plus.
Date: November 10, 2025
Hosts/Analysts: Adam Aizer, Dan Schneier, Jacob Gibbs
This episode of “Fantasy Football Today: Beyond the Box Score” unpacks key advanced stats and actionable insights from the Chargers' win over the Steelers, goes deep on the state of several prominent fantasy players (including Justin Jefferson, Zay Flowers, TreVeyon Henderson, and Troy Franklin), and offers strategic advice on trading—especially at wide receiver and running back. The crew dives deep into rest-of-season outlooks, role clarity, coaching changes, injury updates, and mid-season trends.
| Segment | Topic Highlights | |-----------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:13 – 08:44 | Chargers-Steelers breakdown (Johnston, Herbert, Gadsden, Metcalf) | | 17:36 – 22:52 | Advanced stats: JSN’s historic YPRR, Seattle RB usage | | 27:35 – 28:57 | Notable snap counts: Swift, Puka Nacua, rookie WRs | | 38:14 – 43:25 | Buy/Sell: Travion Henderson, Zay Flowers | | 44:55 – 49:43 | Zay Flowers vs. Justin Jefferson: deep dive | | 54:54 – 58:42 | Buy/Sell: Troy Franklin vs. Sutton, quick Judy thoughts | | 59:37 – 64:33 | Quarterback draft value and trends |
For fantasy managers: This episode is packed with actionable context, so whether you’re trading, managing injuries, or lining up your flexes, knowing the “why” behind the box score gives a crucial edge down the stretch of the season.
Subscribe to Beyond the Box Score for more in-depth breakdowns!