Beyond the Box Score: Colts Receivers, DK Metcalf, RJ Harvey, Christian Watson and More (12/08 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – Beyond the Box Score: Colts Receivers, DK Metcalf, RJ Harvey, Christian Watson & More

Episode Date: December 8, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer & Jacob Gibbs

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Episode Overview

In this Beyond the Box Score episode, Adam and Jacob take a deep dive into the nuanced, often overlooked details that matter most for fantasy football playoff success. The discussion centers on crucial fantasy trends, roles, and performances that aren’t always obvious in raw box scores, with an especially sharp focus on the Colts receivers, DK Metcalf, Christian Watson, RJ Harvey, and key takeaways from Week 14 matchups. The conversation is honest, data-driven, and loaded with actionable advice and advanced stats to help listeners set their playoff lineups with confidence.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Houston vs. Kansas City Recap & Chiefs Offensive Woes

• Chiefs' Decision-Making in Crisis (03:07)
  The hosts open with a breakdown of Andy Reid’s questionable 4th-and-1 decision in a tie game, suggesting a season-altering miscue.
• Pacheco’s Changing Role (03:35)
  Jacob notes Isaiah Pacheco’s spike in snap rate: “64% snap rate in the first quarter, five of the first six running back runs to Pacheco... Plan was to get him integrated as the lead back. That’s different than what we’ve seen.”
• Chiefs’ Receivers Disappoint (04:51) Mahomes’s pass-catchers struggled with drops and separation: “Rashid Rice was dropping the ball… Travis Kelce, multiple drops… This stat line is awful but Mahomes actually played phenomenal.” (05:14)
• Mahomes’s Fantasy Reliability Doubted (06:21)
  Adam questions Mahomes’ playoff viability: “I don’t know that I trust him in the fantasy playoffs… In tough matchups, he’s been bad this year.”
  Next games: Chargers, Titans, Denver.
• Underlying Loss of Receiver Quality (08:10)
  Jacob: “They don’t have any route winners on the freaking team. Rashid Rice is the closest… They’re great with the ball in their hands. They’re not getting open.”
• On Mahomes’s Declining Deep Accuracy (09:03)
  “His superpower anymore is not accuracy… He was tied with Anthony Richardson for last in the league in highly accurate throw rate 10+ air yards last year.”

Houston’s Fantasy Takeaways

• Nico Collins as Reliable, but Ceilings Limited (10:01)
  Adam: “121 yards but two targets, no catches in the second half… you’re happy, but I want 20-point games from Nico.”
• Woody Marks’s Massive Workload (11:40)
  Jacob: “28 touches, 89% snap rate… He’s grinding out yards, doing what he can, helps in real life… Low-end starter if you need him, but not a lot of upside.”
  • Next week’s Arizona matchup could boost both Marks and Dalton Schultz.
• Schultz Remains a Hold at TE (12:31)
  Adam: “Don’t drop him. Touchdown called back, but gets Arizona next week, a great tight-end matchup.”

Tight Ends, Deep-Waiver & Snap Count Notes

• Harold Fannin Jr.’s Breakout (CLE TE) (19:44)
  • “86% route rate, 11 targets, 29% target share, 74 air yards, finishes with 114 yards. Full-blown stud game!”
• Brian Thomas Jr. & Christian Watson: Boomer-Bust WRs (23:54)
  Jacob compares both WRs: “You know it could be bad, but you’re just putting him in the lineup… He’s had 80+ yards in three of past six. Maybe just ride it out.”

Wide Receiver Deep Dives

• Luther Burden (CHI rookie) Flashing Efficiency (27:54)
  • 11th in yards/route run among all WRs with 40+ targets. Still a part-time player due to run-heavy Chicago, but high first-read target rate.
  • Are you starting him in run-heavy matchups? Adam: “Probably, though it could get ugly.”
• Puka Nacua’s Historic Output (29:50)
  • “All his data is better than last year’s historic rookie season… Might be 101 in dynasty.”
• Jalen Waddle: Elite Usage, Cautious Outlook with Run-Heavy MIA (29:58)
  Jacob: “33% target share, 59% air-yard share… Volume is there, but they’re so run-heavy, that’s scary.”

RB Notes – Trending & Usage

• James Cook: Locked-In Workload (32:34)
  • “Six red-zone rushes, four inside the ten for two games straight. 82% red-zone snap rate… Basically all Cook as they prep for playoffs.”
• Chase Brown (CIN) – Role Down but Offense Booming
  • Snap rate dropping with Perine’s return; still a mid-range RB2 due to offense quality.
• RJ Harvey Trend Arrow Up (PHI) (36:46)
  • “68% snap, 64% RB carries last three, high route and red-zone rates. Approaching bell-cow status.”

Trending Snap Counts & Opportunity

• Denver: Courtland Sutton, Clear Alpha (37:24)
  • “Route rate up, Troy Franklin’s down—a return to last year’s Sutton-dominated role.”
• Green Bay: Watson Out-Snapping, Reed Full-Time (51:07)
  • “Watson led with 81% route rate… Watson looks so good, so healthy… Can have a bust but upside is massive.”

Notable Waiver & Lineup Questions (timestamps refer to broader context)

• Colts Offense Outlook (43:54)
  • Jacob does not trust the Leonard-led passing attack for Colts WRs/TEs except for Tyler Warren (Seahawks = weak vs. TE).
  • Adam: “I’m sitting all of them until further notice except maybe Warren next week.”
• Jared Goff’s QB1 Puzzlement (47:38)
  • Great underlying stats, top-10 per game, but doesn’t “feel” like it. Adam: “Has he felt like a top-9 QB? Not really.”
  • Rams matchup causes worry for both hosts because of pass rush, despite what box scores might say.
• Christian Watson at Denver (50:36)
  • Not likely to be shadowed by Surtain; upside huge, risk also present.
• Tedro McMillan, Michael Wilson—Can You Trust the Volume? (53:36/55:49)
  • McMillan: Run-heavy Carolina limits upside, Saints match is rough.
  • Wilson: If Harrison is out, Wilson is a must-start; otherwise, volume risk.

DK Metcalf and the Mystery of Aaron Rodgers’ Resurgence

• Unexpected Seahawks Shootout (58:06)
  • DK: “Targets more concentrated late in season, 36% share this week. Steelers went pass-heavy… encouraging data point, but I’m still not buying DK as ‘back’.”

WR Efficiency & Why Opportunity ≠ Points

• Ameche Egg Buka Disappointment Explained (61:42)
  • “Baker Mayfield hasn’t had over 200 catchable air yards in a game all year! Only 4 catchable targets for a Buka this week... not really on him.” (Jacob, 61:42)
  • If Mike Evans is out, Adam says start Egg Buka versus Atlanta for volume; with Evans, less confidence.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

“They don’t have any route winners on the freaking team. Rashid Rice is the closest… Watch the film. These guys are great with the ball in their hands. They're not getting open.”
— Jacob (08:10)

“His superpower anymore is not accuracy… He was able to just throw it in a place Tyreek Hill could get to. Last year, Mahomes was tied with Anthony Richardson for last in highly accurate throw rate on 10+ air yards.”
— Jacob (09:03)

“I want these 20-point games from Nico [Collins]…I think he only has four touchdowns this year, but whatever, you’re certainly going to take it.”
— Adam (10:01)

“Just being real, I think you can’t trust Justin Jefferson. I mean, 15 yards total over two games?”
— Adam (32:03)

“[Egg] Buka needs to play better…but the offense has not been able to find any rhythm and the quarterback play has been truly, like, at the bottom of the league in accuracy.”
— Jacob (61:42)

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Timestamps for Crucial Segments

• Chiefs/Texans Recap: 03:07–10:01
• Woody Marks Profile & Schultz TE Preview: 11:40–13:04
• Harold Fanning Jr. & Other TE Trends: 19:44–22:22
• Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Christian Watson,/Luther Burden WR Outlook: 23:54–28:39
• Big WR Data Check (Puka, Waddle): 29:50–31:03
• Colts Offense Deep Dive: 43:54–46:18
• Jared Goff at Rams, QB Anxiety: 47:38–50:36
• Green Bay WRs, Watson, Reed: 51:07–52:28
• Michael Wilson, McMillan, and WR Toss-Ups: 53:36–57:54
• DK Metcalf & Steelers WR Usage: 58:06–60:57
• Bucs Passing Game, A. Eg Buka vs. DK, & Catchable Targets: 61:42–67:49

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Final Takeaways & Tone

The hosts blend advanced stats, honest takes, and a touch of humor to keep frustrated fantasy managers grounded. They consistently remind listeners that many players have boom-or-bust profiles, and uncertainty is the rule, not the exception, during the fantasy playoffs. The episode both reassures and arms listeners with the “real” analysis that goes beyond the box score—just in time for the business end of the fantasy football season.

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Listen for deep-dive advanced stats, actionable waiver advice, and a level-headed, data-driven approach to the most critical fantasy decisions as playoffs approach. If you're dealing with WR or RB headaches, this episode delivers the clarity and nitty-gritty details you need.

Transcript

[Adam]

As football season winds down, I actually get a little bit more free time. So I started looking into my yearly golf trip destinations. Last year, I did a week in.

[Jacob]

Pinehurst, North Carolina, and while I was gone, my place was just sitting there.

[Adam]

So I figured, why not put it on Airbnb? I was already away. The house was empty.

[Jacob]

Hosting just felt like the practical move.

[Adam]

And the extra money offset some of the trip costs, which never hurts when you're traveling for golf. So now as I'm planning this year's.

[Jacob]

Trip, hosting on Airbnb is just something.

[Adam]

I do when I travel. If my home's gonna be empty anyways.

[Jacob]

It might as well work for me.

[Adam]

While I'm gone, your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how [e-mail] host this is fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Jacob]

What a play. Can you believe this? No, I can't.

[Adam]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays at his feet.

[Jacob]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Adam]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and.

And it is time for beyond the Box Score, Monday's edition of Fantasy Football Today, presented by BetMGM. Make it legendary. Sad. Sad. We don't have Dan Schneier on today. Who am I going to pick on? Certainly not Jacob. What's up, Jacob?

[Jacob]

You can pick on me if you need to. Hey, man. I'm good. I am coming off of a long weekend. Had a bunch of friends in town. Sports betting just became legalized in Missouri, so my degenerate friends dubbed it a holiday December. They've been calling bet Miss. We've been placing bets together every day in a group chat. And this weekend, we got together and just watched football. Watch sports all weekend Saturday. Got to watch a bunch of cool. Like, the Iowa State basketball game was a freaking awesome upset.

Number one team in the country, Purdue, beat the crap out.

[Adam]

Really?

[Jacob]

Oh, cool. Yeah. And then the Mendoza game on Saturday night was extremely fun.

[Adam]

Are you a Simpsons fan?

[Jacob]

I like the Simpsons. I've never watched, like, episodically because it's.

[Adam]

Very funny to watch Gus Johnson call an Indiana game. Because if you're a Simpsons fan, because he always goes Mendoza.

And that's like, right out of the Simpsons. And it's so funny. That was a. It was a terrific football game, honestly. So was the ACC Championship game. I don't know if you flipped over to that one.

[Jacob]

Was that Duke, Duke, Virginia? Yeah, yeah. I got the very end of it.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jacob]

Yeah. Gus was electric in that game.

[Adam]

He is so divisive. Some people love him, some people hate him. He's. If nothing worse, he's. He's exciting as hell, for sure. And that was a game worthy of Gus Johnson. He's always been that. You know, the slipper still fits. He's always been the exciting.

[Jacob]

He.

[Adam]

He just. When he would do the NCAA tournament, it always seemed like all the buzzer beaters went to Gus Johnson. It was great.

[Jacob]

I love.

[Adam]

I'm a huge fan. All right, so today we'll talk about Houston in Kansas City, and we will talk about the Colts pass catchers Jared Goff, Christian Watson, Lamar Jackson, Brian Thomas, Jr. Tele, McMillan, and more. Let's start with last night's game, and Houston wins it, 20 to 10. They. Why did they go for it? 4th and 1 at their own 31 yard line in a tie game in the 4th quarter. They might have lost their season with that horrible decision. Jacob?

[Jacob]

Yeah, I mean, normally I come here and keep it pretty much streamlined on the football. Kind of try to avoid the personal stuff, but if you notice, today, I led with the personal stuff because. I don't want to talk about this. I don't want to talk about the Chiefs. Okay. Yeah. I don't know, man. Andy Reid's decision making has been a mess all year. It's been really hard to make sense of. He tells us he's gonna come out and tickle people's tonsils, whatever the hell that means in this game. And I guess it meant just complete chaos, like, because there were plenty of opportunities to go for it earlier in the game that they didn't. And then they choose to do it there, which didn't make any sense to me with the way the Demons is playing, with the way that Houston's offense was playing. But here we are in terms of fantasy takeaways. Isaiah Pacheco was the guy out of the gate. And I think that's interesting. And it's like, so 64 snap rate of Pacheco in the first quarter. Five of the first six running back runs, you go to Pacheco. Then it becomes like, oh, crap, it's desperation mode again. Like, for whatever reason we have. I mean, I. We know the reason. They've been to five AFC championships, but, like, they have this hubris where they think they can come in and just like, we're just gonna roll. We're the Chiefs. We're gonna be fine. But then it's like, oh, yeah, no, we are in big trouble. And Kareem Hunt is the only person that we can depend on and so hopefully he can save us. And went all cream after that. But it seemed like the plan was to get Pacheco integrated as the lead back, which is a little bit different than what we've seen. We've seen him kind of getting him back into the fold more and more. So that was no notable to me. At least. We'll see what happens going forward.

Nothing else on the chief side. They. I mean they, they sucked like point blank. They sucked. Rashid Rice was dropping the ball. Looked scared after he got absolutely rocked by Petrie early in the game. Travis Kelsey multiple drops savior where these never open Cream Hunt had a big drop on third down like after. This is such a weird game because like the stat lines are going to look awful for all these players. And I actually thought Mahomes played phenomenal.

[Adam]

Really.

[Jacob]

And yeah, I mean he didn't like relative to some of the performances we get from him, he wasn't perfect. But like that's kind of where he's at is like he's. His accuracy has been spotty for two, three years now. I thought he made pretty much all the plays that needed to be made. I thought the line played really pretty well given the circumstances. Like third string left tackle, stepping in immediately, getting hurt facing this pass rush. It like basically all just came down to these guys. Couldn't capitalize the pass. Catchers just let him down over and over and over.

[Adam]

Yeah. So. Okay, yeah, so the line held up, but I thought they were doing a lot of things to move the pocket, get Mahomes on the run and you know, to negate that. But also the. The Texans had a 7.3% blitz rate so that, you know, look, it's one thing if the line holds up, there's no blitzers, so guys aren't going to be as open. And that was by far the lowest blitz rate of any team this week so far. Yeah, I thought Mahomes, you know, I'm not trying to you get. You always nitpicking with Mahomes because he set such a high standard, but he can't. He just doesn't throw the deep ball well anymore. He underthrew the one to Marquis Brown that had a shot to be a touchdown.

[Jacob]

He.

[Adam]

He slightly under threw the one to Thornton that was knocked away. That could have been a touchdown. And that's probably the ball game right there. My going forward though, we have to think about this. Patrick Mahomes has been bad in four of his last five games. 17.1 or fewer fantasy points and 6 point per passing touchdown leagues in four of his last five games. Now those four bad games were at Buffalo, at Denver, okay, terrible matchups, Houston at home. The other one was the Colts, which we think, you know, when they were healthy, they had sauced that game. Probably not a great match. I mean, he threw for 352 yards in that game. But the fact is in tough matchups, he's, he's been bad this year. Except early in the year against the Eagles when he had 66 rushing yards and a touchdown. Well, guess what his next three games are. The Chargers, they're number two against quarterbacks now. I don't know how much I buy that. Let's see how they do tonight. And then the Titans, that should be a great matchup for Mahomes in Week 16. And then Denver at home. But Denver in Week 15, in Week 17, pardon me. And he just scored 15.3 fantasy points on 45 pass attempts against them. So this guy is the number three quarterback per game in fantasy. And I don't know that I trust him in the fantasy playoffs in two of the next three matchups. And I do trust Rasheed Rice, but he also has not been good in these bad matchups. But I will never really consider drop benching him. And then Kelsey, I don't think I'm going to consider benching him either. Am I going to do bench him for Brenton Strange or Dalton Schultz or Juwan Johnson? No. But I think we could have a disappointing finish from the Chiefs in the fantasy playoffs. You know, really, I don't expect that in week 16 against the Titans. I do expect it in week 17 against the Broncos. Next week's going to be the wild card. That's going to be a tough one. I don't know how to approach that one against the Chargers. Curious to see what the Chargers defense does against the Eagles tonight?

[Jacob]

Yeah, I think they, we could see a bounce back against the Chargers of the Chiefs because they play a ton of zone coverage and that's what these guys are the best at, beating Rashi Rice and players like that. But I think to your point about like them kind of losing these tough matchups, the passing game that's kind of where I'm at with them is like they don't have any route winners on the freaking team. Rashid Rice is the closest they have to a route winner. Him and Worthy. And like they look at their man coverage splits compared to their zone coverage splits. It's awful. It's night and day and look at their separation scores and stuff. Like that. Watch the film. These guys are great with the ball in their hands. They're not getting open. And to people like, this is why we go beyond that box core people here, people like three interceptions. Mahomes, what are you talking about? One of them was one of the best defensive plays I've seen all year from Jalen Petrie. To deflect that and then turn around, relocate the ball and like get to it. The other one was off of Travis Kelsey's hands. The. The ball was like thrown behind him, but it kind of had to be or he's going to get lit up.

[Adam]

Yeah, yeah.

[Jacob]

It wasn't a perfect game for my homes. But like, what I'm saying is another thing people push back on the chat is the accuracy. This is nothing new for Mahomes. My home superpower anymore is not accuracy. I don't know if it ever was. I think he was able to just throw it in a place that Tyreek Hill could get to. Last year, Mahomes was tied with Anthony Richardson for last in the league and highly accurate throw rate on throws of 10 or more air yards. Last. I, I don't like. It's. This is not anything new. His superpower is being able to manipulate the pocket and continue to find people open and create with his legs. He's amazing at avoiding sacks and extending plays, but the accuracy has just not been there. But like, I, I do worry about them going forward. I think if we can get them to like catch the ball, then Mahomes can like make it work against even like the Chargers who have played well. I'm definitely against the Titans, but I think it makes sense to be nervous about all of these guys as you outlined.

[Adam]

All right, and then let's go to the other side of the ball. But before we do that, picture this, football fans. You bet on your favorite player to score the first touchdown in the game, but his teammate scores instead. And if this happens, BETMGM wants to give you another chance at the end zone. With BetMGM second chance promotion, you're going to get your stake back if your first touchdown scorer scores second instead. That's right. Bet on any pro football player to score the first touchdown of the game. If you're right, you win. If your player scores second, you get your stake back in cash. With BetMGM Second Chance offer, you have a chance to keep the fun going after the first player crosses the goal line, try a first touchdown scorer wager with confidence today. Bet mgm. Make it legendary. And then for Houston, quickly here. I mean look, you're going to start Nico Collins. I thought it was almost disappointing the game he had, which was 121 yards but two targets, no catches in the second half. I mean, I'm always like kind of critical, but because I just, I want these 20 point games from, from Nico. I think he only has four touchdowns this year, but whatever you're, you're certainly going to take. The thing is, McDuffie left in the first quarter, so I, I felt like I was just disappointed that he didn't have a catch after halftime. But whatever, you're happy he got you the 121 yards they get Arizona next week, they should be able to do whatever they want. So. Woody Marks. Nick Chubb has a rib injury. Nick Chubb barely played in this game. Woody Marks had 28 touches. He had a receiving touchdown. He can't, He's. He's like Judkins and Genti. He's not going to have an efficient rushing game, most likely, but maybe next week at Arizona. Maybe, but I don't know. You think you're going into week 15 with Woody Marks as a starter?

[Jacob]

I don't feel great about it. The role is obviously there. Like you said, 28 touches, 89 snap rate. And I actually do think he's looked good. This is another one where it's like you, this game was so gross and weird and like the offensive line was a problem for both of these teams, especially Houston. And so the efficiency looks awful for him. 26 carries for 68 yards. We saw the targets get up a little bit lately. That's what I've really been needing from him, I feel like, is like he's grinding out yards and doing what he can to keep the offense on track and it's helping them with like real life football. But you get like six fantasy points every week because he gets no targets at all. But we got three, I think in this game and so hopefully that keeps up. I think he's a low win. He's like in the same exact vicinity as like Devin Neal. If you need to go there, it's fine. But I, I don't think there's a lot of upside, unfortunately.

[Adam]

Maybe against Arizona's defense is, is really bad against the run right now. It's. I mean, we saw Blake Corum obviously rip them apart. But, but. All right, look, if you have to start Woody Marks, at least you get a good matchup next week. And it's a great matchup for Dalton Schultz, so do not drop him. He had a touchdown called back I think on an illegal shift penalty, the Chiefs were, I think, seventh best against tight ends. Cardinals eighth worst against tight ends. They struggle against that position. So don't. Don't touch that dial with Dalton Schultz. Jacob, do I have permission to tell a really bad story very quickly?

[Jacob]

Please do.

[Adam]

Thank you. I knew you were going to say yes. Okay. My favorite part of last night's game. I don't know if this ever happens to you. So I did. I was doing the Sunday night show, and basically at the start of the second quarter, I paused. I was done with the show. I paused the game on my tv, and at that point, I ate dinner, edited the podcast, did the dishes, clean, clean the kitchen. Probably almost an hour here of not watching the game from that point. When I finally started watching the game, I was so far behind, I kept getting these stupid alerts on my phone that was telling me what was happening, which was annoying. But when I finished the game, I finished in real time, so I wa. I did not. I was not up any later watching the game, but I did not watch a single commercial. I did not watch a single punt or a field goal or the announcers blabbering in between plays. It was one of the most efficient watching experiences I've ever had.

[Jacob]

That's how I do it, man. I watch so much about. I cannot stand to sit through the four hour live experience. I know that maybe sounds sacrilegious. I will do it on occasion. It's fun to sit down with people and watch a football game, of course, but Fox app or anything like that where you can pause. There's so many other things you could be doing. Like, it's. It's just a huge time suck. And then, like, on Monday and Tuesday, like, I can watch it. It's like, right at my fingertips. Watch y' all 22. You know what I mean? Like, if you're gonna spend. Oh, yeah, I get it. If you're not spending freaking 20 hours a week watching football. But, like, I. I can't do it. I can't do that all day. Sit down, just watch commercials. Same commercials over and over and over.

[Adam]

It was great. It was a great experience. All right, what's on? Beyond the box score this week.

We.

[Jacob]

Are just pretty much dialing in on, like, getting people every little nitty gritty thing they need to know about where we're at. There's actually a weird amount of turnover, I feel like in the league this past week for where we're like, normally late in the season, you kind of know where you're at. But there's a lot of stuff that changed. So we'll talk about that as much as we can today. But yeah, we just want to make sure everybody's like feeling real dialed in going into this first week of the fantasy playoffs. We'll go over usage, we'll go over matchups, all that kind of stuff.

[Adam]

And I think you just, you know, we're getting questions about Ted Millett and Christian Watson. It's probably like this most years, but this year, I mean, I'm thinking about my playoff rosters. There's definitely going to be two or three guys I feel like, on most of my teams except a couple really, really good ones where I'm just, you know, hoping, understanding that I can have a total bust in my lineup. I don't think I can bench Christian Watson, even against Denver, for example. But the wide receiver position specifically is just so unreliable. And then we got all these committees at running back. It's just so unreliable. So if you're looking at your lineups and you're going, man, I have so many question marks, I promise you, you're not alone. We're going to take a break, news and notes and more when we come back on fft.

[Jacob]

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[Adam]

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[Jacob]

All?

[Adam]

It's Vaughn Miller, Super Bowl MVP Sagmaster, and now your host of Free Range. This is where NFL meets Real talk. Every week I'm bringing you inside the game from locker room stories to league wide headlines. You want football iq, locker room insight and real conversations with the people shaping the league. Welcome to Free Range with Von Miller, where nothing is off limits and every down counts. New episodes every Wednesday. Listen and follow Free Range with me, Von Miller, wherever you get your podcast at quarterback to Rod Taylor Groin Daniel Jones out for the season with the Achilles Jaden Daniels elbow Geno Smith I thought it was a hand injury. Originally was, but he also left with a shoulder injury. Based on the way Pete Carroll was talking, I guess I'd throw it at 5050 that Geno Smith is back at Philadelphia next week. Kenny Pickett replaced him to a tongue of Iloa. Oh, I already gave that stat yesterday. He's now 1 and 7 in games where the temperature is 46 degrees or colder. And next week at Pittsburgh Monday night he'll look to make it 2 and 7. Running Back News haven't heard anything on Achan. They said he was available available to return in an emergency. Jalen Wright will be talked about at length on the waiver wire show. Let's see Nick Chubb injured ribs Wide receiver News DK Metcalf was in the hospital with stomach pain. He should be fine. He's out of the hospital. Thank goodness he's got Monday night Miami tight end Mason Taylor has a stinger. He had a crazy target per out run rate something like 32%, 31% target per hour run rate for Mason Taylor and that was with a quarterback change. Darnell Wash, what'd you say?

[Jacob]

That's the undrafted rookie quarterback experience. Yeah.

[Adam]

Oh true.

[Jacob]

Throw it at the tight end.

[Adam]

I wish the whatever 6th or 7th round pick Riley Leonard would have had that experience too, but he did not. Darnell Washington concussion Zach Ertz leg injury and David Najoku knee injury as well. Kansas City left tackle Wanya Morris as Jacob already alluded to, he left. So they are so depleted on the offensive line. Hopefully they can get at least two guys back next week.

[Jacob]

The guy who filled in really did phenomenal. I was so impressed with him.

[Adam]

Nice. Good. Ethan Posik Brown center, long, maybe in a long term injury there. I gave all these last night so I think I'll stop. But on defense, the ones to know about Trent McDuffie left in the first half. He's Kansas City Star cornerback Cleveland Star cornerback Denzel Ward left with a calf injury. Arizona safety Jalen Thompson Their defense is getting pretty beat up and he left in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury. Pittsburgh linebacker Malik Harrison concussion, Chicago corner Nishan Wright left in the fourth quarter and Tampa Bay edge Hassan Redick left with an ankle injury. All right, let's get into some snap counts and any other stat that Mr. Gibbs wants to throw at us. The floor is yours.

[Jacob]

Mostly snap counts and stuff. Like I said, we'll get. We'll get to more and more as we have more advanced data, more film tracking stuff like that on the Tuesday and Wednesday beyond the box or show. So before we leave the Houston game, I wanted to mention that finally Jaylen Noel ran more routes than Christian Kirk. I just love this guy. I think he's a really good player and he might end up mattering at some point if Houston's Dolphins continues to play decent. And Jane Higgins had another pretty good game, but his rat ray didn't really change that much. Okay, that's all we've got on the Sunday night game. I want to start with Harold Fannin Jr. And like this is so it was a depressing, you know, Chiefs weekend. Sure. But like I still had so much fun this weekend. Man, this was such a crazy NFL slate. I remember looking at the noon games being like this could be a really fun slate. And it really panned out. Like even the Browns Titans game was insane for Fanon. It was an 86 route rate, 11 targets and a 29 target share. He also had some air yards, 74 air yards, which is unusually high for a tight end, especially in this Browns system. 26% air yardage here finishes with 114 yards. Just looks like an absolute stud when wins that one in the back corner of the end zone at the catch point. So to me like just the. It's been a really encouraging year for Phantom but it's kind of flown to the radar because the Brown's been so bad. This is the first game where it's like full blown, like this guy's a stud. He's winning in so many ways. He's winning down the field a little bit. He's winning at the catch point. It's not just like look at him turn this crazy, you know, one yard catch into eight yards because he was just pushing through all these players like we got some semblance of competent quarterback play. Like let me find it real quick. Catchable air yards. I think that yeah, Shador Sanders was third this week. Finally Dak Prescott and Joe Burrow, he threw a ton but still 238 catchable air yards in this game. And so it's like with just a decent enough healthy offensive environment, Fan can put up a really, really big numbers. Before this it's been like 40 yards every game, you know. Yeah, but 118 at this spot.

[Adam]

Yep. And look they, they played Tennessee. Tennessee is just really bad defensively at Chicago next week. Chicago is pretty iffy defensively. They're 23rd against quarterbacks, for example, the 23rd against tight ends, for example. I just mentioned they lost another cornerback. They got a couple corners back two weeks ago, but hasn't really made a difference. So, yeah, he's gonna be tough. He's 57 started. Harold Fannin, I think he'll be much higher than that next week. At least you know, you're gonna get a high target share in all likelihood with Harold Fannin. Hopefully Sanders throws at least 30 passes next week.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I mean, you never really can feel safe. You never really can feel safe at tight end. But Fannin has been getting there pretty much every week for at least, you know, the floor play. And we finally saw some upside. Speaking of upside, somebody who has not been getting there has been very frustrating for fantasy managers. I saw him on the show sheet. I'm just gonna hit him real quick and you can talk about it more if you want. I just don't know if it's that nuanced of a conversation with Brian Thomas Jr. They're, they're letting him be the deep threat. They're not trying to like force him to do the over middle stuff. They got you Kobe Myers and he's filling that role well. And so it's like, we know BJ can win down the field. He's insane in that area of his game. And so I think it's. That's going pretty well. It'll probably be kind of hit or miss week to week, but Trevor Lawrence is actually playing pretty well. And again, I know you don't want to trust Trevor Lawrence either, but I think this is probably the best game I've watched Trevor Lawrence play. And the stats have backed it up too. He's third in the NFL in catchable air yards per game over the past two months. Another game here, we had over 200 catchable air yards, which is a really good number to get to. So for BTJ, 94% route rate. That was his highest since week five. 19% target share, his highest since week six. 153 air yards, his highest since week two. He finishes with 87 receiving yards. That's his highest since week six. And Brian Thomas Jr. Has now hit 80 or more receiving yards in three of the past six games. So you said, you know, even like Christian Watson is somebody where, you know it could be bad, but you're just putting him in the lineup. Is that kind of where you're at with BCJ or you just.

They're playing all right. Like they're, I, I don't know.

[Adam]

They are so Lawrence, I think when you look at his, his season, he's really faced a lot of tough teams. You know, Carolina, week one, that's not so tough. At Cincinnati he had a good game. Houston, week three, San Francisco, week four, I don't even remember where they were. Probably not that easy of a matchup in week four. And they still had Bosa and they, you know, whatever. But then Kansas City, Seattle, the Rams at the Raiders at Houston, Chargers at Arizona. My point is he's actually been pretty good. Trevor Lawrence for fantasy when he's had a good matchup which has been very infrequent. I, I look at his season and I say, man, if he's got a tough matchup, obviously I'm not starting him. If he doesn't have a tough matchup, I'm pretty interested. I think the issue is with the jets next week, that's their upcoming opponent is they might throw 25 times because this is another team that really wants to run the ball a ton. You know, Trevor Lawrence had 30 pass attempts in this game. That's kind of a lot for Lawrence lately. He had third. What do you have? 30. I'm sorry, it's. It's kind of a lot for him lately. He's usually like the 27 range. But anywho, Brian Thomas Jr. I don't know again, one game this year, more than 12 fantasy points. So I can't get over that.

[Jacob]

That's fair. I compared to Watson because they're in similar sort of situations like you alluded to. With a low passing volume you're kind of having to bet on efficiency. And you know, Watson, we know can, can be that guy, has been this guy, that guy this year. I think we know that BTJ can too. He hasn't been so much this year, but it has been better lately. So we'll see. I mean if you, if you have to start him, I, I think you can do that without letting this. Think of the early part of the season sink in too much. Like it seems like we're kind of in a different place. It was, it's a first time head coach, you know, some unfamiliarity with the quarterback and everything. Like they were trying to do the, you know, Travis Hunter stuff at the beginning of the year. A lot of newness in this offense and I think they've kind of found a groove lately here.

[Adam]

Yeah, I, I don't think it's, I think it's a good comp to Christian Watson and honestly I just, I don't know who the Waiver wire wide receivers are going to be this week but I can't imagine I'm Luther Burden. Maybe I'd start over him if Rome's out. But you know the AD and I Mitchells, Devon valleys of the world. I just, I think if you are deciding between them and Brian Thomas Jr. Just go with Brian Thomas Jr. Yeah.

[Jacob]

Do you want to just talk about Burden right now?

[Adam]

Yeah, sure. I. Yeah sure, go for it.

[Jacob]

So DJ Moore and Zacchaeus played more in this game. I think the Bears really just wanted to predicate everything on the ground game. They tried to get it going early and they kind of struggled in the first half. They also did a lot of play action stuff in the first half. They just couldn't quite get drives together but they stayed really committed to it and I think like that's kind of where we're at is like they're in these cold weather games. They're playing a lot of good defenses down the stretch and I think they're really going to try to lean on the ground game and build around it. And so Burden, you know Zakis is the better blocker. And so even with Roma dunes out we didn't see a full time role for Burden but it was still good. He did lead the team in first read targets 33. First retarget rate for Burden is. Is great. But yeah, to my point about running 15 out of 22 wide receiver or tight end targets in this game came on play action which is a really high rate. Burden and Loveland Colson Loveland were the only two players with multiple non play action targets. So I do think that that points towards what we kind of know. I think at this point which is that these two rookies are the best at winning. Outside of the design, I think that both of them have looked really, really good. I've been really impressed of course with Love and he's amazing. But like Luther Burton has been a better route runner than I would have expected and he's obviously cray with the ball in his hands too. So this was not a great outcome for Chicago in terms of what their offense can produce. And still it was a pretty decent game for Luther Burton I think.

[Adam]

Let's take a look at the updated scoreboard here. Luther Burden yards per out run. He is now 11th moving him ahead of Alec Pierce, Stefan Diggs and Jamar Chase right behind Zay Flowers. So Luther Burden, he's only gotten 40 targets this year, but he is 11th among all wide receivers with 40 or more targets in yards per out run I think they need to get the ball in his hands more. I think it's pretty clear and I think I will.

Probably start him. Although I could see a, like you said, a really run heavy game, which is what they want to do against Cleveland next week. So. Yeah, Burden. Burden of Brian Thomas Jr. What do you think? Brian Thomas Jr. I think at the jets and Burden.

[Jacob]

Home against Cleveland, I would probably go with btj.

[Adam]

Yeah, I think I would too. Home against the Jets. All right, what's next for you?

[Jacob]

89 first half route rate. So that was his highest since week four. I know there's been a lot of like nervousness about the. He hasn't given us the ceiling. His role hasn't quite been the same since they've been using a lot more three tight ends and stuff like that. He's. He's just the best man. He had a 39 target share and 25 PPR points in the first half of this game. It ended up being a blowout so we kind of stalled out after that. But like he looked like he could have had 100 points in this game. Like he was unstoppable. His. All of his data is better this year than it was last year, which was better than it was during his historic preseason. Like he's winning all over the place at the catch point after the catch. He's just insanely good. So that is good to see. He. I. People like, I pointed out that like he doesn't get red zone targets. He doesn't get in zone targets. Those all go to devonte Adams. But both his touchdowns in this game were like from the 28 yard line, from the 31 yard line. So in scoring distance I think you're locked in with Buka and for dynasty. I. I don't know, he might just be like 101. Like he's. He's insanely good.

[Adam]

Yeah, I mean he was so he made. Made some terrific catches. 35.7 fantasy points for Puka Nakua. Go on. Yeah.

[Jacob]

Jalen Waddle had a 33 target share and 59 air yardage share. Had a really good game which was good to see because he had had a couple annoyingly bad games in a row after like getting us all excited the month before that. But the volume was locked in here. I think your point about cold weather games is valid. So I'm a little nervous about this upcoming week. But I just wanted to say that like the under he had a really good game. But also like the underlying stuff is like this is like a top five Top eight type of wide receiver. If in a neutral situation. I don't know if we're ever going to feel confident that it'll be in a neutral situation because two is not playing well. And I mean even with agent going down the Dolphins were just like we're running as much as possible. Like we want to avoid the dropout game.

[Adam]

I mean he was at least yesterday I thought too it was awful.

[Jacob]

And yes they are the game before that too.

[Adam]

They're second in run rate since week seven.

[Jacob]

Yeah.

[Adam]

So I hope it doesn't require a 30% target share or whatever for Jalen Wild to get his. I'll never bench him I don't think anyway. But this was a great game for him. But still the fact that there's just so run heavy scares me a little bit.

[Jacob]

I think. Yeah, I think that makes sense. That's kind of why I wanted to hit on this is like I kind of think that's where we're at is like it does have to be this volume. But I do think that he's like so clearly the the route winner on the team at this point. So you feel pretty good about the volume being there every week. But there are some defenses who can take him away.

[Adam]

Yeah, maybe Cincinnati in Week 16.

[Jacob]

Believe it or not they've yeah their top corner has played really well. They've done a good job against wide receiver one. So maybe as much as that would be annoying because that should be a good you know in theory a good defensive matchup for the the Dolphins to attack but it could just be a ton of running. So Jalen Wright had a 68 snap rate in the second half without a CHAN50 route rate is really good for running back. He had 14 of 19 running back runs so was mostly right. Not so much Ollie Gordon if you're looking to add one of them for sure.

[Adam]

24 carries. Very good stuff.

[Jacob]

Jordan Addison over the past two weeks as 17 targets the Justin Jefferson's 10. Justin Jefferson has 15 receiving yards across those two games.

[Adam]

What?

[Jacob]

Yep. The two have shared the field for 342 routes on the year. 342 routes run together 112 PPR points for Jefferson, 102 for Addison, 29 target share for Jefferson, 23 for Addison. So I don't think this is a Jefferson note. As bad as it's been lately. It's more like Addison is is right there with him which is really impressive. It's kind of. It's a lot more 1A 1B than I would have expected. I would have just guessed. It's 1 and 2.

[Adam]

It's gross. It's gross all around.

[Jacob]

It is, it is. 15 yards over two games is not what you want. James Cook 75 snap rate tied a season high. He has six red zone rushes in this game. Four inside of the 10 in each of the past two games. Now even with a fumble at the goal line, they kept going to him when in scoring distance. 82% red zone snap rate. 91 snap rate inside the 10 yard line. So I think that we are seeing them kind of lock in here as they prepare for the playoffs and it's just like basically all Cook all the time. Chase Brown past two games the role has not been the same that it was. So these are his snap rates of the past five. 95, 83, 89 then down to 59% and 66 in these past two games or the past two games since. Samaja Piran has returned 27 rush attempts for Brown, 20 for P. Ryan, which is just weird. So he got two touchdowns in this game. I just wanted to bring this up because I think he had like 35 scrimmage charts or something like that. Adam, I gave Dan a crazy stat on Beyond Box Score last week. I don't remember exact. I think it's from. If you remove the first month of the season, I think it's from week five on. The Bengals are second in the league in rushing success rate on running back runs.

[Adam]

Listen, because we've watched a ton of Chase Brown and I've really noticed and it's. It stunned me the first time. I haven't watched every game, but I really felt like their offensive line was doing a great job kicking ass basically. So I don't think this is a weakness anymore. Brown had a very inefficient game against the Bills, which was shocking. But prior to that, maybe now it's five of his last seven games has been. I can, I mean I can tell you something like 5 yards per carry or better. So you know what I'll tell you right now.

[Jacob]

So.

[Adam]

Four, his last eight games, 4.7, 9.8 yards per carry, 6.1, 3.4, 5.5, 5.6, 5.2 and whatever it was yesterday, I think under two yards. But that's now six of his last eight games he's been 4.7 yards per carry or better. I, we talked about this last week on beyond the box Score. I know the role is going down. I think I'm hoping that the, the, the, the decrease in role is boosted by the Burrow effect and we just get more a better offense, more scoring opportunities and quite frankly, I just can't bench Chase Brown at this point.

[Jacob]

That's fair. Yeah, I don't know like who you would be benching him for, but there are some teams that are really stacked and I think I'm kind of done ranking him as like a top 12 running back. I think he's more of like a, a mid range running back too with this role. But this offense can put a ton of points on the board any given week. So. Yeah, I don't think you need to overreact to this. But I do think it's noteworthy that I, I don't understand why P. Ryan's getting so much work. Really? Because I do think that Chase Brown has played well.

[Adam]

Yeah, I agree. But. Well, it is what it is.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I mean they're like red zone work and stuff is like splitting pretty evenly. Like I don't know. Okay, RJ Harvey. Yeah, yeah, get to something encouraging here. 68 snap rate for RJ Harvey. 58 route rate. Me fired up six targets in this spot. 64% of the running back rushes over the past three games. And so that's like the same range as like Travis etn the role that he's been in this year. Or like get Jamir Gibbs and Bean Robinson are at 70% of the running back rushes on the year. So he, Harvey is like nearing that range. It's not quite like bell cow. The the other two guys do mix in some, but it's been mostly him. And then we saw the route rate much, much higher this week. So that gives us more opportunity for targets. And then the red zone work is pretty much all going to RJ Harvey. He had four red zone rushes in this game. So that's two straight games coming out of the bye week that he's had. Four red zone rushes, 80% of the running back red zone rushing share in those two games. Five rushes inside the 10 across those two games. No other running back has a run from inside of the 10 yard line. So it's been pretty much locked into Harvey. And finally we saw that he could have more than, you know, 30 rushing yards or whatever. And so that's great. I'm pretty excited for him.

[Adam]

Okay, what the hell is this comment here, Jacob? My wife says you're cute. Said Adam looks tired and old. Elle, why are we doing this?

She is spot on.

[Jacob]

Okay.

[Adam]

Jacob is a handsome guy and I am tired and old. Jacob will have two kids at some point. Okay, you work a Long Sunday night and then Monday. You think Monday's easy? You think Monday's easy? Person's wife. Okay, I looked, I was in a tuxedo a month ago. Should have seen me then. I was killing it anyway.

All right, maybe should we move on to our, our.

[Jacob]

Let me give you a few more real quick. It won't take long. Second game in a row coming out of the buy. Sticking with Denver, the Cortland sudden has looked like Last year's Sutton 28 target only receiver with a route rate above 70%. So that's the, maybe the most noteworthy thing here is that like Troy Franklin's route rate was all the way down to 37, which is like Marvin had that one.

[Adam]

Yeah, I, I, I think he's droppable.

[Jacob]

Yeah. And so like that's what this was last year was it was like a bunch of role players and Sutton. But this year it hasn't been that way. But like coming out of the bye week because they get ready for the playoffs, it's like, okay, yeah, Sutton is locked in as the wiser one is what it looks like through two games. Real quick note for deep, deep leagues or dynasty people is that Jack Besh finally is like in 84 route rate, team high 21 target share. Caught all six of his targets for 50 yards. And this is without like slot gimme work. Tyler Lockett's the slot guy, so I'm talking about rookie receiver for the Raiders. This guy was picked high. I think he was like a round two pick or something like that.

[Adam]

Yeah, best he was. And this is actually his third game with an 80 route run rate or higher. In the first two he had a combined three targets. This time he had six. You're right, it's for deep leagues. I'm not picking up Jack Bash, but I'm glad you brought that. I was gonna bring that up as well. So nice youth movement maybe for the Raiders with Besh your best two running backs.

[Jacob]

I'm a little nervous about the usage.

[Adam]

Laughing at you. Never seen the Rock?

[Jacob]

No.

Jalen Warren for the Steelers had a dead even split in terms of snaps with Kenneth Gainwell. And Gainwell ran more routes and doubled him in receptions and targets. Warren had a good game. I think it's kind of like Chase Brown where you're still putting him in there. But like the usage does make me a little nervous because Gainwell's played really well this year. The other one is Bucky Irving. His role scaled back from what it was in his first game back from injury, which is just weird. To me, everything about the Bucks offense is weird. We're going to talk about that more in a moment here. 49 snap rate for Bucky Irving. That was even with Rashad White. 15 carries for Irving, 11 for White, seven for Sean Tucker, who wasn't really part of the game, led the week before the Tampa Bay had 69 offensive plays in this. Only five of them came in the red zone. So it was just not a good game for them. Really. Bucky wasn't on the field for any of them. I think that's random, but I just wanted to make note of that. Yeah, they had 122 passing yards in this game. Man, it was bad. The only other note on Tampa Bay I want to throw in real quick was that Chris Godwin had an 86 route rate and a 29% target share. Tez Johnson, the rookie who's been playing pretty well, only had a 33% route rate. So I think it's, it's Godwin time. It's like time for them to lock in and try to make the playoffs.

[Adam]

All right, we gotta go to break. Let's go to a quick break. When we come back, we've got a fun screenshot for you, some more stats, and then we'll get into our big topics with the Colts offense and more after this.

[Jacob]

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[Adam]

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[Jacob]

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[Adam]

Let's drive. All right, welcome back. So let's take a look at a Justin Jefferson moment yesterday. He's at the 41 yard line at the top of your screen and McCarthy is under pressure about a second earlier and then he rolls out. What did he end up doing on this play? Like scrambling? I don't even know. I didn't even see the end of it. What was the end result of this play? Hold on, I can play it on my.

[Jacob]

I was gonna say he just ran. Yeah, it was a 16 yard run.

[Adam]

Dude, throw the ball. Justin Jefferson is eight yards away from his nearest defender. I mean, this could have been a I Where's the line of Scrimmage? About a 70 yard touchdown for Justin Jefferson.

Come on. Oh man, it's a tough one. Sorry. But you know what? If you had Jefferson started him as he was started in most leagues and you advance to the playoffs, if they had completed this ball may have given you some false hope and made you start him next week. So we look on the bright side, at least now, you know, probably don't want to start Justin Jefferson if you can avoid it. Although that remains, you know, it's subject to change. But we got to at least be going into this week thinking I can't trust Justin Jefferson. All right, a few more notes on snaps. Juwan Johnson played only 53% of the snaps, 58% of the routes. He was at 71% of the routes two weeks ago. That's Juwan Johnson. So bad game for him but only 20 pass attempts in the game. Greg Dulcich out snapped Darren Waller. They both ran 13 routes. I don't really think you can trust Waller. As I mentioned, Dolphins second in run rate ahead of only the Ravens since week seven. Mason Taylor 31% target per out run rate. And this concludes your tight end portion of this. Terry McLaren and Debo Samuel ran about 72% of the routes. For McLaren, it was 84% in the first half. I don't think they did too much in the fourth quarter, but I'm not sure they were getting blown out. Basil Tutin played two snaps, he fumbled and that was it. And Jack Besh we mentioned I was, you know, disappointed in Khalil Shakir. He only had a 64% route rate in a shootout. So I don't know if we can trust Khalil Shakir, which is a shame because he was basically the most consistent and predictable player in fantasy, no joke last year. And then first half of this year you basically could just put pencil in for about 11 points and now I don't know what to expect from him. All right, we go to our topics. I asked you all on Twitter who do you want to hear about? And a lot of people of course said the Colts offense. So let's start with that. I assume it's going to be Riley Leonard. Anthony Richardson is on ir, but just some numbers. Anthony Richard, Anthony Richard burn. He averaged 174 yards per game in his healthy starts last year with eight touchdowns in 10 starts, 174 yards per game, less than a touchdown per start, removing one game that he left very early with an injury. Daniel Jones this year, removing this past week 253 yards per game. So about like 78 more yards, 77 more yards per game and on pace for 27 touchdowns in 17 games. So just so much better passing offense, yards per attempt. Daniel Jones was averaging.

7, 8, 8.1 yards per attempt. That's awesome. Anthony Richardson, 6.9 career yards per attempt. So if it were Richardson, you know, it'd be much worse. Now Leonard, I thought was pretty bad. The only time he looked good to me was when the score was 39 to 13 in the fourth quarter. And the Jaguars had some of their backups in the game.

So I have basically no faith in them. Now next week is interesting. You are at Seattle and I do not want to start any of them except maybe Tyler Warren because the Seahawks give up the third most fantasies. Actually I think the second most fantasy points, the tight ends. But I am very pessimistic about this offense. Jacob, here's the one silver lining for the Colts offense to me, the pass catchers. In their last three games, they face some tough matchups right at the Chiefs home against Houston and then this game at Jacksonville in the rain with a backup quarterback. And they've thrown for 181 yards, 201 yards and 196 yards. So let's say about 192, 193 yards per game over the last three games. That's really bad. It's better than Richardson, but it's bad. And in those three games, you have gotten two good games out of three from both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce, nothing from downs, and very little from Tyler Warren. To sum it up, I'm sitting all of them going forward until further notice, except maybe Warren next week because of the matchup. But I am pretty pessimistic.

[Jacob]

You, I mean, the matchup definitely is scary. So I think that if you can sit them, that makes sense. We, we're in a kind of, we're in a trepidatious part of the season when it comes to wide receivers as we've talked about at this point. Like there are a lot of receivers who make us really nervous. So we'll see where they actually land in my rankings because like Leonard wasn't great, but I thought he was able to at least like kind of facilitate functional offense. Like we had a 33 first retard rate for Pittman, 25 for Pierce, a decent amount of catchable air yards in the game. Overall, his charting data doesn't look too bad in terms of accuracy.

So as far as Like a backup quarterback coming in. It was okay. But the matchup against Seattle is enough for me to, to avoid these guys if I can.

[Adam]

He, he probably could have had a, a last minute touchdown to Tyler Warren. I think the throw was a little bit behind him. I did not like what I saw from Warren. He just didn't look right yesterday. I don't know what that was all about. I could be just seeing it wrong. But we're, we've got a slumping player here and.

You know, if it weren't Seattle, I wouldn't even think about it. I thought Warren was going to be a league winner because Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville in the fantasy playoffs, those are terrific matchups, but he just scored 3.7 fantasy points at Jacksonville yesterday. All right, let's go to another topic here. Let's talk about Jared Goff. I thought that was an interesting one. Jared Goff is, he was 76, started and gave us a disappointing game. He threw for 309 yards but only one touchdown. 18.2 fantasy points against Dallas. And then you could make the argument that Jameer Gibbs's success has hurt Jared Goff a little bit because Gibbs is scoring so many rushing touchdowns. But look, Jared Goff is having a great year statistically. 8.1 yards per attempt is exactly what Daniel Jones was averaging. It's fantastic. 6.3% touchdown rates. Both of those are second best of his career behind last year. But Jacob, question for you. Jared Goff for the season is the number nine quarterback per game in four point per passing touchdown leagues. Number eight and six point. Does he feel like he's been a top nine quarterback to you?

[Jacob]

No, not really.

[Adam]

Right. And he's got three top five finishes this year. He's got five top ten. He's got five finishes 18th or lower. So the Jared Goff experience has not felt to me like you've had a must start top nine quarterback. What's your faith level in him going up to at the Rams next week? Home against Pittsburgh, at Minnesota in his next three games?

[Jacob]

The Rams matchup scares the crap out of me. They're, I think part of the reason that it hasn't felt so good for golf lately is their offensive line is getting absolutely crunched over the past month. Like.

I guess not. Maybe.

Like the Giants game they played all right in in terms of overall pressure rate but still like when pressure got there was extremely fast. And that's the thing I'm noticing with golf is I'm looking at his time to pressure. The, the average like seconds. It Takes the defense to get there when they're getting pressure and it's happening a lot. And I feel like the Eagles game is where he really noticed that it was on the national spotlight where it's like he can't even get through a five step drop back and complete his throwing motion on most of his throws. And that, that's kind of where we're at is another really fast time to pressure rate and another just high pressure rate. Overall, I think he did a good job of avoiding sacks and getting the ball out, but it did kind of disrupt things. Fortunately, Dallas's secondary was just really easy to pick on in this spot. But the Rams, I mean the, the Lions route runners can beat the Rams DBs, I believe that. But like the Rams pass rush is one of the scariest in the league and they get there very fast and they don't even have to blitz so they can drop other guys back. That would scare me to play the Lions in this.

[Adam]

That's the negative. Here are the positives in this matchup. Ram should put up a lot of points, right? Could have a shootout. It's indoors.

That's it. Yeah, but, but no, I mean, the last two quarterbacks to face the Rams, Bryce Young had a huge game and Jacoby Brissette had 23 points. He would have had 30 points if he had hit Trey McBride wide open in the end zone at the end. And that was probably against Rams backups. I'm not saying that we got a bad starting like.

[Jacob]

Yeah, well, do you have anything else? I. I mean, Jameson Williams, I would definitely start because I think he's. They'll try to get about quick to him and so that hopefully will mean to me it makes Dan Campbell's pretty smart and I think he's been pretty adaptive with what he's got. And so I would think they know what they have going into this Ram match if they'll try to get. That means more quick stuff, more horizontal routes and stuff for Jameson Williams. And that's where you can get those long plays. If it's a game where they're trying to, you know, do the deep play action stuff and all that and Jamo's doing deeper routes, that's where I think you're more likely to run into a, you know, six targets, one catch kind of game or whatever. The other thing is like, I doubt they'll be able to lean on the run game, you know, if they. I think most likely they'll be playing for buying against the Rams. So I think the most likely Outcome is a lot of passing, a lot of short passing and that hopefully can get you to what you need for these receivers.

[Adam]

Let's talk. You mentioned Jameson Williams and I was watching Christian Watson just his catches, he only had four of them and the touchdown, the catches run he had against the Bears yesterday kind of reminded me of Jameson Williams and Christian Watson. Look, four catches on four targets but 89 yards and two touchdowns. I don't know what to make of it. I think I'm just gonna ride it out and see what happens. He's at Denver this week. I don't know. I don't think that he's going to get shadowed by certain, do you?

[Jacob]

No, I don't think so. I think, I mean Romeo Dobbs is the sacrificial ex receiver for this team. Like he's the one who's normally on like on the line of scrimmage and draws the opposing top cornerback. That's why like if you look at like yards per outrun, fantasy points per outrun, Watson and Jane Reed look like two of the best receivers in the whole league over the past like two or three years. And that's part of it is that like Dobbs plays this role that a lot that frees them up to move around a lot and to allow Matt LaFleur to drop all these creative ways to get the ball in their hands. And they're both really good with the ball in their hands as we saw with with Watson making the JMO type play this week. And then Watson can also win at the catch point. I think Watson has looked so good this year. I've been so happy with like how healthy and explosive he looks. Jane Reed played a full time role in this for him. Jane Reed 65 route rate which is basically exactly where he's been in the past. So first game in it was all read. Matthew golden and Don Taving Wicks barely played and still Christian Watson actually led the receivers with an 81 route rate. So I think that is really encouraging for Watson. You could have a bad week. Of course we've seen it from him for sure. This, this offense could only throw 22 times if need be. But there's definitely upside and he's playing a lot. The other thing is the team just spreads the ball around so much. No player had a target share above 17 in this game.

[Adam]

Yeah, I can't look at the game be like well Jaden Reed was the reason that Watson only had four targets. The first reason was that they didn't throw the ball that much. The Second reason was what you. Did you hear that?

[Jacob]

I did hear that.

[Adam]

What the hell was that?

That did not sound good.

The second reason is this. They do spread the ball around so much. But Denver, if you want to be encouraged, Denver, in their last seven games, they've allowed 74 or more yards to Wanda Robinson, both Dallas wide receivers. Nico Collins with no certain in that game. Terry McLaurin also. And the only good receiver they've stopped in that stretch was Rashee Rice, ironically, without Patrick certain. All right, next player to discuss is Tedro McMillan. Zach wants to know if Tedro McMillan in the fantasy playoffs. Remember, he's coming off a game where he had two targets and a 43 yard touchdown catch against the Rams. He's coming off two straight games with 11.3 to 11.5 fantasy points. Zach wants to know are they going to throw more and can we trust McMillan against New Orleans in week 15?

[Jacob]

I mean, you can't. You can't trust them. He just had two targets. But.

Like the Saints offense has been playing better than expected. I guess I would say, like, I think there's a chance that they could hang around with Carolina in this game. But yeah, the Panthers want to run the ball. That's what they're doing. And they're, you know, tied with the bucks now at 7 and 6. So I think like they're absolutely like, what's the best thing that we can do to try to make the playoffs? And that's probably just lean on these running backs that are playing really well. And the other note is the Saints defense has the 8th highest opponent run rate over expectation. So that's given the circumstances of any given play, what's likely offices have chosen to run against the Saints defense. They're coming off their highest rate, highest opponent run rate over expectation of the season this past week. So if I had to guess, we're probably going to see as much running as Carolina can possibly muster up in this game.

[Adam]

Yeah, McMillan or Watson next week? This upcoming week?

[Jacob]

Yeah, it's probably going to be Watson. I mean, this is a matchup where McMillan could win for sure. It's the first game coming out of the buy, so maybe we see more things designed for him to try to get the rookie playmaker the ball, but I don't really have any confidence in it. I think there's a real chance that we could see another two target game.

[Adam]

There's only been. So I gave the stat on Thursday or Friday. I guess it was Friday. Going into week 14, only four wide receivers had more than seven targets against New Orleans and two of them did it in week 14 just yesterday. And it was Chris Godwin and Mecca Buka and they both had horrible games. If a book of catches that touchdown. He has a good game but not, you know, he's like a solid fantasy game but nothing special. Probably would have been about 12, 13 points. So yeah, wide receivers typically don't get targeted. They did yesterday though. All right, Andy wants to know what is Michael Wilson rest of season? Three games without Harrison. He has scored 33.5, 21.8 and 37.2 fantasy points with 15 to 18 targets in every game. If Harrison doesn't play this week, can you start Michael Wilson who has been the best wide receiver in fantasy by far in those three games?

[Jacob]

I think yeah, if Harrison doesn't play locked in. I think he does play.

[Adam]

He's got Houston. No, if he does, if he, if Harrison plays. I don't think I'm starting Wilson against Houston if he doesn't play. We are testing the boundaries of Jacoby Brissette and Michael Wilson by starting them at Houston. What do you think?

[Jacob]

I think you still go there. I mean 53 first retarget rate in this game, the highest of any player. It's just locked in and I think like a lot of these targets are coming quick. They're like really trying to get the ball out quick and get the ball to Michael Wilson. And I think he's, he's, he's a, I think he's a player who can win even in a tough matchup. I think he can just, he's, he's very tough. Like for DBs, there's almost no DBs who are as physically powerful as Michael Wilson is basically the idea that I'm trying to get out here with where it's like you obviously tons of respect to this defense, but I do think he can just like go get the ball if they're just force feeding it to him. And he'll be able to have at least 4, 5, 6 receptions in that type of a game. But yeah, I mean this, this demons is no joke for sure. It's a valid question.

[Adam]

Here are the four receivers who have scored more than 13 fantasy points in full PPR against Houston. Jackson Smith and Jigba Puka Nakua. It was only them for a while and then Khalil Shakir had 110 yards in week 12. Alec Pierce, 17.8 fantasy points in week 13. So it's JSN Puka, Khalil Shakir and Alec Pierce. They are the. And Pierce only had five targets. They are the only ones to score more than 13 fantasy points against Houston. I don't think I can start him if. If Marvin Harrison plays. If he doesn't play, he will be in my lineups as I have him as a number two receiver in one league and a number three receiver in one league. And just thinking about those teams, like it'll be in one league. It'll be him or Stefan Diggs. And that's going to be tough because that's Diggs against Buffalo. So I made. Yeah, I may not start Wilson, but I probably would. I don't know. That's a tough call.

[Jacob]

That is tough. Oh, man. I see them really similarly, but in.

[Adam]

The three receiver league, I'll start Wilson.

[Jacob]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jacob]

I just looked it up. 2.3 seconds was Jacoby Brissette's average time to throw when targeting Michael Wilson. Over half of his targets to Wilson were quick targets. 2.5 seconds or fewer.

[Adam]

Okay. All right, here's Bob Dawson. He wants to know about DK Metcalf. Mystery man. I'll. I'll just throw this out there. I don't trust it. I don't trust Aaron Rodgers. There's been much more bad than good.

This is not the first good game that DK Metcalf has had. This was the best game of the year for Rogers. 284 yards was a season high. Four completions of 20 or more air yards for Aaron Rodgers. He had seven of those coming into the year and he was 0 for 8 on deep balls in his previous four games and he went 4 for 4 yesterday. So I.

[Jacob]

Awesome.

[Adam]

We're. I mean, come on. We're at week 14 now. I. To me, I should have said, come on. It's not ridiculous to buy him Metcalf, but to me, using the full season sample size in this particular case is gonna. Is going to guide me a little bit more than just the last data point. I'll be a little more optimistic than I was, but I'm not buying that, you know, DK's back.

[Jacob]

Rogers was on one, man. Rogers was truly on one yesterday. It was hilarious. Like, he made a play where he extended and got outside of the pocket where I was like, who the hell is this? We have not, we have not seen this guy be willing to do this over the last like two or three years. But he, I mean, even like the play that got batted where he like jumped up and got it from the guy. I'm like, what am I watching right now? This is awesome.

The DK Metcalf stuff. I, I don't feel good about this offense. I've been really nervous on DK Metcalf from the, from the beginning. Like it's just kind of a math problem. But like we're get. The math is getting a little bit better lately. The targets are up a little bit and they're concentrating them on him. So. 36 target share in this game. 50 of the team's first read targets. If you look at Metcalfs like gamelog in terms of first three target rates, four of his top six first three target rates on the year have come since week 10. So we're getting a little more concentrated on him as the top guy, which makes sense to me, man. Like Marquez, Valda Scanling was second at wide receiver in terms of routes around this past week for Pittsburgh. Mvs. We're getting MVS and Adam Thielen out here as a receiver sharing the field with Metcalf on a lot of these plays. So of course he should probably get the ball. 166 air yards in this game, 78 of the team's air yards finishes with 12 targets. This previous high was nine. The Steelers also took to the air a lot more in this game, which was interesting to me. They had the second highest pass rate over expectation of any team in week 14. They had their highest drop back rate of the season, 69. Even though they led for 87 of their play. So it was different. I don't really know if it was just Rogers was.

Really on the smelling salts in this game or whatever and they just like decided to just lean into that. But this is an interesting data point I guess is where I'll leave it.

[Adam]

All right, we're gonna do one more here. We're going to finish with the Bucks offense and you know, specifically someone asked about a Mecca Buca. Should we be worried? Two catches for 15 yards on nine targets. You got a Thursday game against Atlanta and Atlanta is a layup right now. Their defense has, has completely crumbled again. Abuka drops a touchdown. He actually had two drops in this game. So if he catches both of those balls, I think it's probably a pretty solid game. If he just catches the touchdown, then you're, you know, you can live with it, but you still don't love the underlying stuff here and the fact that they, they just can't even throw for 200 yards. So asking for, for a million dollar, for a billion dollars on his crazy. I don't even know where I was going with that, but it's asking for a lot. So let's finish with our thoughts on the Bucks passing game.

[Jacob]

Yeah, it's awful. I gave like the Shadur sanders had like 232catable air yards or whatever and I said Trevor Lawrence has averaged over 200 catchable areas over runs. Baker Mayfield doesn't have over 200 catchable areas in a game all year long. He had 72 catchable air yards in this game. He had a 57 catchable target rate in this game. Only the Washington quarterbacks were worse this week. Egbuka only had four catchable targets and two of them you mentioned, like, they were drops. They were kind of out of reach, like he got his hands on them, but neither of them were very accurate throws at all. Egbuka needs to play better. Buka needs to catch the ball. He's had some drops as the rookie season has gone on. I think he's maybe kind of slumping compared to where we've seen him. You know, we can. We know he can play better than this. But also it. The. The offense has not been able to find any rhythm and the quarterback play has been truly like, in terms of accuracy. It's kind of like the Mahomes thing at the top of the podcast where it's like, I know Baker is playing well and like, I don't want to just say that because he's been inaccurate that he's not been good because he does a ton of stuff in terms of extending plays. He's able to read out defenses and attack all sorts of different areas of the field. But the actual accuracy that he's delivered has been like, at the bottom of the league for pretty much the whole year. And it's only gotten worse as the year's gone on.

[Adam]

I'm watching. There's so much tape I want to watch. I'm actually watching a Buka's targets now and he caught his first two. And yeah, I keep saying he had two drops, but you're right, that first one he had not counted as a drop really was an inaccurate pass. I. Okay, so I should probably stop saying that. He did get his hands on it, but not a great pass.

I don't. Yeah, I feel like Baker kind of threw that last ball too hard. What a great move that Abuka made. He should have caught that ball, though. He should. I'm not going to make excuses. He should have caught that ball. But that was a great move he made to get wide open for that play. I think it comes down to this If Mike Evans is not back and I can expect eight or more targets against Atlanta, I'm going to start him and I'm just going to say law of averages. Eventually this guy is going to turn these targets into something. It cannot go on like this. We're not talking about a bad player here. We're not talking about a bad offense. It's really weird how inefficient they've been, but if Evans is back, then I'm not going to be very confident starting a Buka.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I mean, we just talked about Metcalf and it's like we just still don't really feel that confident. The offense is weird and everything, but like, isn't he kind of. I mean, I feel like. Do you have more confidence in him.

[Adam]

Or Ibuka week a Buka without Evans? With Evans.

I don't know.

[Jacob]

I don't know why it would be a Buka.

So Ibuka. Oh, I. I went week 10 through 14. Ibuka is seventh in the league in expected fantasy points per game per the fantasy points data's model. So that's good, right? In theory, should be good. Look at catchable fantasy points per game. He's 39th. He drops below Metcalf. Like Metcalf has averaging more catchable fantasy points per game across this six weeks or whatever it is I that could turn around. You know, we've seen Baker play at a high level, but also Baker's been banged up and the two are just like in a weird funk right now where it's like, so he has 18 and a half expected fantasy points per game across these games with only 8.7 of that being catchable. That's insane. Over half of it's not catchable. That's got to be the worst in the league. If you'd like divided the two numbers.

[Adam]

It's a lot of downfield stuff. Right. He's not getting wide receiver screens, he's not getting plays, you know, just designed to get him out in space or anything like that. Abuka doesn't really work like that.

[Jacob]

Sorry. I've got the. I'm looking at the casual target rate for the receivers that are at the top of the lead and expected fantasy points across this stretch. And it's 76, Michael Wilson, 76. 83 George Pickens, 93, Rashi Rice, 82 CD Lamb, 52AMech Egg Buka. Yeah. So like Marvin Harrison Jr. You know, it's frustrating, it's bad. You know, it feels like all the time. His is Nico Collins with a pretty crappy situation. Houston's is 71%, 52% for egg. Buca is the catchable target rate.

[Adam]

And then there's a comment in the chat says Evans helps Mecca Buka. Abuka can't handle top cornerbacks. I don't really think that's what's going on. It's not like he's getting shut down and shadowed by great corners or anything like that. It's been a lot of opportunities. I mean, you know, we talked about it. Third pass attempt of the game against the Rams gets wide open for a deep touchdown and Baker misses him. Gets wide open in this game for, for a sizable touchdown and he can't hang on to it. And it's been stuff like that. And the thing is like I could buy that Evans is good for Abuka, but remember when Evans played earlier Abuka was better than Evans. Evans kept drawing Sauce Gardner and, and A.J. terrell and Derek Stingley. But Abuka's targets were pretty low and he was just relying on these massive plays. And also Chris Godwin wasn't playing. So you've got all these, you've got these X factors here and combine that with a struggling pass offense that doesn't have its left tackle for now is playing Thursday may not have worth spec on Thursday. I don't know. It's, it's hard, it's easy to doubt Abuka. So I would say I am going to doubt him if Evans plays and I'm going to start him if Evans does not.

[Jacob]

I do think that Evans being back would help him. I, I, I get your point about targets and that would be a little worrisome. I'm trying to think of a good comparison and the players who look that like makes sense in my mind in terms of a similar type of outlook and like where they would be getting their targets how that might translate to fantasy points are like Jameson Williams but Jameson's way better with the ball in his hands at being able to create explosive play. So it's not a good one for one another one who said I was like Alec Pierce. It's weird that these are the comparisons because they're like like downfield thought, you know, thought of his downfield threats and that's kind of what Ibuka has become though. And I think that's kind of what his role might be if Godwin is soaking up most of that underneath stuff. I think I got one for you.

[Adam]

Yeah Malik neighbors 2024 okay. After Daniel Jones season ending injury or after they benched him. Sorry. They benched him and Neighbors comes back and well, I guess it was. I think they benched him in the Carolina game. Anyway, Neighbors has this stretch. Look at these fantasy points for neighbors and full PPR and he is routinely getting pretty much double digit targets. 8.1, 14.1, 14.9, 10.8, 12.4, 15.3, 14.9 and scored a touchdown in any of those games. Then he goes for 24.2 against Baltimore, 13.8 at Atlanta, 36.1 in the fantasy championship against Indianapolis, 17.4 at Philadelphia. This is what Jefferson is reminding me of. More so than a Buka. But Jefferson, unfortunately the last two games have bucked the trend, but it was a lot of targets. A lot of targets. A lot of targets. No production, no touchdowns, no touchdowns. Then finally he comes through. Now for Neighbors, I would argue though I remember that Baltimore game when he had the 24.2. He did that with a big touchdown at the end of the game against backups and a blowout. So it didn't really get better until week 17 when he went off. I don't remember that game against the Colts. He had that really gorgeous catch and run touchdown. Yeah, he struggled for like two and a half months basically.

[Jacob]

Yeah.

[Adam]

And I just, I think the difference is I believe more in Baker Mayfield than Tommy DeVito and Tim Boyle and Drew Locke and J.J. mcCarthy. So that's why I keep going back to the Abuka. Well, because you get eight targets from, from Baker Mayfield I think you should do well.

[Jacob]

But you also worry that the targets are going to drop where if the star, if a stargaze dropped, they're not anywhere near approaching like the neighbors or Jefferson levels. Well, that's what I'm saying lately.

[Adam]

100 right. That's why the Evans is everything.

[Jacob]

I think it's like Marvin Harrison Jr. Like, I think that's kind of the the type of like week to week outlook you're looking at with Ibuka if we get Evans back.

It's dicey but it could be good.

[Adam]

Maybe. Although I would love to Marvin Harrison Jr. With Jacoby Brissette. Could just be good. I don't know about Houston, but could just be good. All right, thanks everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow with the waiver wire as Jamie and I are going to record an early look at the waiver wire shortly and beyond the box score tomorrow with Jacob and Dan. Have a great day. Hope you made the playoffs. Good luck to you. See you later.

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