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Beyond the Box Score: Joe Burrow, Kyle Pitts, Trevor Lawrence, Tyrone Tracy Jr. and More (12/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:02:28
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- [00:00]
Adam
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- [00:58]
Host/Announcer
This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
- [01:02]
Dan
What a play.
- [01:03]
Host/Announcer
Can you believe this? No, I can't.
- [01:06]
Adam
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [01:09]
Host/Announcer
Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.
- [01:19]
Adam
All right. It is beyond the box score time. Advanced stats from the simplest people you could possibly get. Adam and Dan here today on Fantasy today presented by BetMGM. Make it legendary. Happy Monday.
- [01:32]
Host/Announcer
Dan.
- [01:33]
Adam
What's going on?
- [01:34]
Dan
How are you today? We are as simple. It is as simple as it gets. When we pull back the studs and Jacob's not on the show, it's just.
- [01:41]
Host/Announcer
It's.
- [01:41]
Dan
You just break it down to a level that is almost unheard of.
- [01:45]
Adam
Yeah. I'm not going to lie. You. There's no reason to listen to the show today. You're not going to get anything out of it. Maybe some entertainment, but that's about it.
- [01:56]
Dan
That's not true. You got a lot of research. Adam put a ton of time into this, and we've got a lot of stats coming your way. We got a lot of players to talk about, so. And one of the questions in the chat. No, I have not watched Rocky yet.
- [02:07]
Adam
No, this is not even a question that it's not gonna happen.
- [02:09]
Dan
I was asked in the chat.
- [02:11]
Adam
I know, but it was a silly question. It's not going to happen probably ever. Can I. Can I share?
- [02:14]
Dan
No, it will happen. I have to do it now.
- [02:16]
Adam
You've been saying this until.
- [02:19]
Dan
Until this last show on Friday. I did not say I was planning to watch it. Now I'm saying I have to watch it.
- [02:25]
Adam
No, but there have been other movies where you said, I'm going to. All right, forget it. What?
- [02:29]
Dan
Matchstick Men?
- [02:29]
Adam
Yeah, Magic Men. I think Braveheart. I think stuff.
- [02:33]
Dan
I never said I was going to watch Braveheart.
- [02:34]
Adam
You should.
- [02:35]
Dan
I don't even. It's Braveheart. The Mel Gibson one, or is that the other one?
- [02:39]
Adam
Sure is. Okay, so I had an email today with this guy, Matthew. Matthew. And his. The subject line was he actually emailed me yesterday or Sunday, said Dan Balboa, the urban jump shooter. So he emailed me. Okay. He emailed me Saturday with a bunch of start sit questions, and he emailed me again today just to say thank you. So I went back and I looked at my answers and I gave him such terrible advice.
- [03:11]
Dan
Bad.
- [03:11]
Adam
Oh, horrible. Except one thing. I told him to start Purdy over Dak, and he actually didn't listen to that advice. But the rest of it was just awful. And I felt really bad and I apologized and he said, it's a crazy game we play and while I love all the prep and data, we just never know. It's the journey of prepping for each week that I love. And I really appreciate. I appreciated that so much because I felt really bad. I just felt like I gave bad advice yesterday. I'm kind of reeling. I was very happy.
- [03:42]
Dan
We knew it when we were talking on Sunday. Show you. It was. I mean, you did it all morning. But there was a segment with me, you and Jacob, and we were kind of going over a lot of these start sick calls and, and a lot of them were, you know, likely was involved in them. Who had a nothing burger. That's. That's a killer for anyone. We, we said like, you know, if you're playing likely, the matchup is great, but the volume's not there. I feel like that was the case for a lot of the plays on this week's late. Even a player like Watson who got hurt. We weren't trusting the volume. It was a tough week, but there were some good calls in there. I think we like Tracy, who had a big week, for starters.
- [04:13]
Adam
I mean, I didn't see this coming from Tracy, but, you know, two touchdowns. But yeah, we'll talk about him because he had a season high in snapshare, which was encouraging. Kind of felt like they were just riding the hot hand a little bit, which I feel like they've done Since Scatter Boo got hurt. But I'll let, I'll defer to you on that. Tracy's one guy we're going to talk about. Joe Burrow, Kyle Pitts, Trevor Lawrence. Can you trust him? Against the Denver Broncos, I believe the Jaguars in their last six games have run 37 plays in which they have been trailing.
- [04:43]
Dan
Wow.
- [04:44]
Adam
Yeah. And 23 of them, I want to say, were against Arizona. Other than they've been leading five of the last six games, they've led almost the entire game. That's not going to be the case next week at Denver, which is a tough matchup. Let's talk about Sunday night football. Minnesota 34 and Dallas 26. You said earlier on our, on our little mic check his best game that J.J. mcCarthy's played in the NFL. Hard to dispute that. And he was 15 of 24, 250 yards, two touchdowns, interception on his first pass attempt. He also rushed for a touchdown. He did the gritty or whatever and apparently Kevin OConnell was not happy about it. But this is two straight games with more than 26 fantasy points for J.J. mcCarthy. That is awesome. Washington and Dallas and he's at the Giants next week and then he gets Detroit. Holy cow.
- [05:33]
Dan
Are we buying in for the end of the season? To an extent, yeah. I mean you don't. I don't think we're buying into the point where we're going to be going over start sits this week and telling you to start JJ over X quarterback in your one quarterback league semifinals because that will probably be taking it too far. There's still dud potential. But as far as two quarterback leagues, super flex, I feel I have him in one of my, in my home league right now. I feel pretty good about it moving forward. He runs. And the thing is like there was a moment in this game it was back to back plays where he play action. It felt a little bit like the Darnold Mullins Cousins version of the Kevin o' Connell offense. For the first time in so long. It was back to back plays. He ran play action and then hit that seam ball to Hawkinson, which I thought Kevin o' Connell did a great job after the game describing as a runner's ball and that's a big thing with quarterbacks. A lot of quarterbacks are generally accurate, but they don't throw runner's ball which allows for yards after the catch. That was a little bit hot, but it was close to the perfect runner's ball. But then the next play he has Jefferson on the crosser and he Just kind of overshoots it a little bit. He did get hit. He got hit on that, so. But it's just like that was the moment where I thought it was all about to click, where he went back to that. It felt like the old o' Connell offense, but fact of the matter is, he throws with great velocity. I think O' Connell keeps talking about the RPMs. You could see it in the red zone. You could see it on those deep crossers and on the seam balls. It's all kind of about putting it all together from a footwork and a timing standpoint. And it is getting better. But what that means is chunk plays, explosive plays are possible, I think, in this offense with him at quarterback, when they weren't necessarily there for a player like Wentz. I still don't feel all that great about where I'm at with Jefferson. Obviously, the eight targets looks nice and they are trying to get him the football, especially in the red zone, which is great. A touchdown could save him for you if you're starting him in your semifinals. But it's just hard for me to feel great about it. Hawkinson's the real interesting one, just given the state of the tight end position.
- [07:27]
Adam
Yeah, Hawkinson, I feel like I'll expect maybe eight to 10 fantasy points, but it could be worse than that, obviously. The weird thing is they're just. They're barely throwing. I mean, he's thrown 23 and 24 pass attempts in his last two games because they've been winning. I mean, they blew out the Commanders. I think it was 3, 31 nothing or something last night. They. They think through four passes in the fourth quarter, I want to say, right. In a 34 to 6 win. Yeah, he had four pass attempts in the fourth quarter. So you can't expect great production from McCarthy with 23 or 24 pass attempts. But on the other hand, the Giants are so bad defensively right now, and you know that it is on the road, it's going to be cold weather, so I don't know how he'll do with that, but there's an opportunity here for Jefferson. He's the first player all year to get eight or more targets against the Cowboys and not score 14 or more PPR fantasy points. He scored 4.2. He had two catches for 22 yards on eight targets. Now, he had a touchdown called back on an illegal shift.
- [08:30]
Dan
Right.
- [08:31]
Adam
It was a short touchdown, but it was a touchdown nonetheless. And then he was open in the end zone. He was open for that chunk play you mentioned. He Was open in the end zone and ball went through his hands. It's on him. But really like he just. It was another fastball when it really. I think it really needed to be.
- [08:45]
Dan
There's no pace on the. He doesn't know how to change the pace.
- [08:48]
Adam
Yeah, so. But it was a more encouraging game than what we saw.
- [08:52]
Dan
I shouldn't say that, by the way. I want to take that back. He did change the pace on that out and up route to Addison where he threw a back shoulder. That was actually a nice job of him of taking a little something off the ball so he can. He's getting there hopefully as a quarterback. But right now, specifically in the red zone, it looks like it's all one speed.
- [09:10]
Adam
So the Vikings running backs, they basically have been splitting carries evenly for the last three weeks and Mason was in near the goal line on multiple occasions in this game. Jones is going to catch the passes. Mason has four catches in his last nine games. And you probably wouldn't want to start Jones or Mason except the Giants are almost an historically bad run defense.
- [09:35]
Dan
All right, as we move forward and we're going to be fielding our questions this Sunday, Adam, about, oh, should I start Isaiah likely or blah, blah, blah. Like, no, no, I'll play the Vikings backs. I'll play the backs. In an amazing matchup against a quit Giants defense that Jacobi, that Bill. Bill Morett Merritt just ripped off 20 points on. I always call him a Rhett for some reason throughout time, I've called him a rat. I can't figure that one out.
- [10:01]
Adam
And you forgot the Crosky too.
- [10:03]
Dan
I just had to quickly go to Marek because I knew I was screwing it up. It's already too far deep on that one.
- [10:09]
Adam
Oh, man.
- [10:09]
Dan
But no, like I'll. I'll probably suggest to play Aaron Jones in any kind of half or full PPR league. Fine. Mason, maybe not. But like, there'll be worse plays than getting the Giants defense. There will be a lot less worse plays on the schedule. Even players of more volume just in bad matchups.
- [10:25]
Adam
All right, so let's talk about the Cowboys here because not only did they have a bad matchup against the Vikings, who have been just so good, now they are facing a team that allows the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks and the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Next week it'll be a home game against the Chargers. So Dak Prescott scores 12 fantasy points. He did throw for 294 yards last week. He threw for 320 yards. Oh, no. Sorry. That was against the Chiefs. No, I'm sorry. Last week he threw for 376 yards. So the production the last couple of weeks has been disappointing, but it's mostly because he has one touchdown to two interceptions. Right. I think it'll be a challenge against the Chargers, but you know how it's going to be. I mean, they're just going to throw and throw and throw. You're going to start Javante, assuming he's healthy. He ran one route the entire game. So he missed most of the first half.
- [11:13]
Dan
Yeah.
- [11:13]
Adam
Came back, ran brilliantly, and basically just kept coming out of the game for Malik Davis. But if Javante's healthy, you're going to start him. But he, he barely. He really barely plays like he came in the game, carried the ball and left for much of the second half. Then there's Lamb. You're going to start him. Ferguson is a. Is. I don't know that he's a start. Next week. He's facing the Chargers, who are one of the best against tight ends. But we'll talk about that next week.
- [11:41]
Dan
Let's talk about Colby Parkinson than Jake.
- [11:43]
Adam
Ferguson next week without Adams against the Seahawks. That's very, very intriguing. My issue with Parkinson is that they. He's been really good. They throw to so many different tight ends.
- [11:53]
Dan
Oh, yeah, yeah. There's nothing good about, like Parkinson's not some kind of amazing play based on volume or any kind of logic we usually follow. It's the end of the fantasy season. He scores a touchdown on one of the best offenses, and Devonte's now out of that red zone offense, most likely. I mean, Ferguson is devolved into a. Basically Parkinson, but worse.
- [12:10]
Adam
All right, now, Pickens, I don't know if you watched the tape.
- [12:14]
Dan
Not yet.
- [12:15]
Adam
I did.
- [12:16]
Dan
Disappointing.
- [12:17]
Adam
I, you know, look, wide receivers, they don't run full speed on every route. Not right, not even close there. There's a lot of just kind of jogging and they're not the primary target. Whatever.
- [12:28]
Dan
He.
- [12:28]
Adam
He spent most of the night to me sort of jogging and I, I'm not going to make any. I don't know. I don't know enough because people are saying, oh, he's, you know, he's dogging it out there for the second week in a row. But I went back and I watched some of his routes, just the first four or five routes against the Chief weeks ago, and compared to the ones I saw last night, I am seeing a big difference. Does that mean it's going to happen again next week? I'm pretty sure I'm going to start George Pickens next week, but he had six targets, 38 pass attempts. You know, it's, it's concerning here. Minnesota is terrific against receivers, so this shouldn't be a shock, but so are the Chargers. So how. What's your faith level in Pickens?
- [13:09]
Dan
Yeah, obviously when I said I didn't watch tape, I meant I didn't watch the all 22 for those in the comments, but I would like to go back and see what you're talking about from an individual route standpoint, but from a secondary standpoint, something that I found insanely troubling. Did you hear what Collinsworth said on the broadcast?
- [13:26]
Adam
No.
- [13:26]
Dan
About Pickens? It was wild. I don't think I've ever heard this about a wide receiver. Like, I don't know if I've ever heard this about any football player. He said that Dak Prescott told him in meetings this week that last week he could see it in Pickens eyes that he wasn't all there. So he said, I was just going to keep going to CD Lamp. Could see it in his eyes. He's like, you just see it in his eyes. He wasn't engaged in the game. That's crazy, dude. I've never heard that said about an athlete before. Like, he just wasn't there. Like I could see it in his eyes. That is not like. And Dax, like, it's all right, we're gonna get him back on track or whatever. But like the fact that he could get to a point where he could not be engaged in a game is just not great. It sucks for me because my two big flag plan calls on beyond the box tour before the season were James, Cook and Pickens and they look like big wins. But now Pickens is the type of player who might just kill you in your fantasy playoffs. Right. Like, it's hard to feel confident about where he's at as we end this season. Dallas, I don't know what their plan is. They're out of the playoffs. Are they going to rest starters at some point? Not officially worried about that.
- [14:25]
Adam
They're not officially out of the playoffs, but they're 99.9% out of the playoffs. They have to win out and the Eagles have to lose out.
- [14:31]
Dan
Yeah.
- [14:31]
Adam
And then the Cowboys will win the.
- [14:33]
Dan
I mean, part of the problem is also like they're down to their third string left tackle. Right. So last night they had their second string in at left tackle. He got hurt and they brought in some guy who played left guard for them earlier this season. When you have that situation, you have to cut off a big portion of your playbook. You can't run 5, 7, step drop, deep play action, step deep play action. Drop backs trying to get the vertical game going. Pickens becomes kind of a slant or nothing winner, maybe a back shoulder off a quick drop. But like it does limit what they're going to do in the passing game if they are going to be playing their third string left tackle moving forward.
- [15:06]
Adam
All right, I didn't really think that was the issue yesterday. I mean, Collinsworth is talking about that the tackles kind of held up decently yesterday. But Pickens, there's a lot of quick game. Yeah, Pickens just wasn't. I don't know, man. No, the Pickens thing is great, but I'm not an expert on route running, so I'll defer to the experts. But obviously people saw it last week and Dak confirmed it based on what you relayed from Collinsworth. All right, so we'll, we'll have a, we are going to have so many tough calls in week 16 because we've got like backup running backs and we've got good players with tough matchups. It's just going to be a really tough week again, but we'll help you sort it out. Now it's time for football at BetMGM. Register with BetMGM. It's a great time of year to register with BetMGM people. All right. Fun football games to look at and you'll get instant access to the best variety of parlay selection features. No sweat and boost tokens, live betting options and much more. New players can receive up to 1500 dollars back in bonus bets with the bonus code Fantasy. If they don't win their first bet. You don't want to miss out on any of the hard hitting action at BetMGM. Place your money line parlay bets and more today. BetMGM. Make it legendary. And remember, the bonus code is fantasy if you want that.
- [16:18]
Dan
Oh yeah.
- [16:20]
Adam
You know my fate. I'm looking at some super bowl odds.
- [16:23]
Dan
Yeah. What are you liking? A weird year.
- [16:26]
Adam
I like the Ravens because right now they're not even in the playoffs so they have to win their division. But if they were, I think they are 20 plus 2500. The AFC to me is so wide open.
- [16:40]
Dan
It is.
- [16:41]
Adam
The Ravens scare me if they get in. Their defense is playing well. Lamar was obviously hurt. If you get a healthy Lamar, I mean they just blank the Bengals, that's pretty impressive. You get a healthy Lamar, you. They've got a shot here and I And I think they're going to win the division. I think the Steelers are going to joke.
- [16:57]
Dan
I don't hate this call. I think the Steelers could even lose this game tonight against the Dolphins. Quite honestly, it's the type of game that Tomlin loses when he's favored on the. I think they're. Yeah.
- [17:07]
Adam
Two in this weather scares me. But you're right, you're right.
- [17:09]
Dan
Two in this weather is scary. But they've just been running the ball. They become a run first offense which is really big reason I think they'll have a shot in this game. We'll see. But it's an interesting call because I don't feel I. I certainly don't feel confident. In the Broncos though, Knicks played his best game of the year and I want to become a believer. I'm not, but I want to become one. The Patriots scare me. The Bills, there's some issues on defense that I'm not sure they'll be able to. It's not a bad call by you. I don't hate it. I think the Jags are interesting. Someone mentioned them in the comments. I don't know if they're ready to go to the super bowl. But Lawrence is finally playing the best football of his career. Even the Texans are interesting to me. I love that defense. But it's going to be an interesting afc. I don't know what's going to happen. Even the nfc, I don't feel fully confident. The Rams are just going to roll.
- [17:51]
Adam
No, I think, I mean, I don't want. I wouldn't want to face the Eagles.
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Dan
I don't, I don't. I'm off that train. I don't think the Eagles are going anywhere.
- [17:59]
Adam
I see where, I see where you're coming from, but every team has flaws. The Eagles, you know, if you had.
- [18:05]
Dan
To pick a Super bowl right now, what would it be?
- [18:09]
Adam
Right now? I would say. I would say no.
- [18:17]
Dan
It's so hard.
- [18:18]
Adam
I don't know. I mean, is it. Dude, I have no idea.
- [18:25]
Dan
If. If the funny thing is like Chiefs, Eagles. What'd you say? Chiefs, Eagles, Chief Seagulls. Yeah. The funny thing is if both or if they were coming back for the playoffs, if Slater and Joe Alt were still on the Chargers, I would pick the Chargers. Happily. I would happily pick the Chargers. Their defense is unreal and they'd actually be able to throw the ball because Herbert's amazing. He just can't do it with two backup tackles. But like they're not. So they're going to be screwed on offense this postseason. I think for me it's the Bills finally do it. Josh Allen's been there. He's had the experience in the playoffs and he's so hard to stop if you give him the ball at the end. And it's been Mahomes killing him for so many years. Mahomes is gone. So I'm going with the Bills and I'm hopeful because I really that fan base deserves it. My opinion, I mean, I wouldn't say more than any other. Obviously there's jets fan base and stuff like that, but like they deserve it, the Bills. And I'll go Bills versus Rams. I think the Rams with the home field advantage will be able to do it and I just don't. It's like to me it's one of those west teams. I don't think it's going to be Darnold and I don't the Nine Niners, Rams or Bears. Do I want to say no, I'm going to go Rams, Bills and Bills win it all.
- [19:33]
Adam
Okay, I'm just gonna. I don't have a prediction. I can't.
- [19:35]
Dan
Even with a bad defense, I can't.
- [19:36]
Adam
I asked a friend of mine, who do you think is gonna win the Super Bowl? I asked him on Friday night and he's like, oh, let me think about that. And he texted me on Sunday. So he's two days to figure it out. He'd say the race, it's a weird year.
- [19:45]
Dan
It's gonna be interesting.
- [19:46]
Adam
All right, let's take a break and come back with your news and notes. Some snap counts and five players that you wanted to hear about. We'll, we'll talk about that. Our five big things coming up. Okay. Patrick Mahomes, torn acl. There's your quarterback news. Jalen Warren is questionable tonight, so you know what to do if he doesn't play. You start Kenneth Gainwell if you have him. But yeah, Jaylen Warren's questionable with an illness. Hopefully he's able to play. Javante Williams chest. Woody Marks ankle apparently was good enough to come back in. Gets the Raiders next week. RJ Harvey rib injury. I've not seen anything on this. RJ Harvey rib injury. Basil Tutin left with a finger injury. Devin Neil hamstring. Zonovin Knight, I think was an ankle injury. Knight, there was some update that I'll get in a minute. Christian Watson has a chest injury but not a bad one, not a long term injury. Hopefully we can get him back this week at Chicago. Much better matchup than what he just dealt With Luther Burden left with an ankle injury, he only played. I think he played less than half the snaps. So maybe.
- [20:47]
Dan
Did you mention Marks or No, I did.
- [20:49]
Adam
Yeah.
- [20:50]
Dan
What's the Mark situation? Do we have any update on that?
- [20:52]
Adam
He could have come back in the game.
- [20:53]
Host/Announcer
Okay.
- [20:53]
Adam
According to d' Amico Ryan's so Bam Knight has a bad ankle injury according to Adam Schefter and is unlikely to play this week against Atlanta. All right. Taekwond Thornton's in the concussion protocol. Ricky Piersol lipped. I think it's a knee injury for Piersol. Got Van Jefferson hurt. Tyler Lockett hurt. Devon Valley. Oh, that. This one I didn't know about yesterday either. Devon Vale got hurt.
- [21:16]
Dan
Wow.
- [21:17]
Adam
He didn't play at all in the fourth quarter. Not much in the second half. I believe he's been playing that way.
- [21:23]
Dan
Olave finally got targets in the end.
- [21:25]
Adam
Of the game that way. Yep. And Devonte Adams is. I would call him unlikely for this week. Hopefully back next week. Don't know that but Sean McVeigh himself said it's going to be tough for Adams to get back for a Thursday game.
- [21:38]
Dan
Brutal for me.
- [21:39]
Adam
Gunner Helm left but he came back. You mentioned the Dallas offensive line also the Chiefs offensive lines still beat up. Packers got a little injured with their right tackles act Tom leaving Kevin Zeitler for the Titans left with a groin injury. Okay. On defense the big defensive injuries would be Micah Parsons, but also he's got a torn acl. But also Evan Williams, their safety left with a knee injury though it's not expected to be serious. You had Quinn and Williams for the Cowboys is in the concussion protocol or at least he was left with a head injury. I think it's a concussion for Quinn and Williams. And you've got three safeties for the Titans left with injuries. One of them is a special teams guy but two safeties that were basically every down players for Tennessee left with an injury, left with injuries. They get the Chiefs this week and the jets lost two defensive backs. The jets defense was. Didn't. Just didn't show up. Didn't show up. Terrible.
- [22:42]
Dan
Sorry, I'm laughing at the comments. Johnny Airport's leaning in. One of our best commenters is leaning into the whole he's Thomas thing bit. He says the Vikings fan that was bummed when Hunter went to Houston and we don't have proof that that Thomas and Airport are not the same person. Nobody has proven that yet.
- [22:57]
Adam
Well, they weren't chatting with each other before the show.
- [23:02]
Dan
Yeah.
- [23:02]
Adam
It could have been two computers easily.
- [23:04]
Dan
Could have been Thomas on a burner easily.
- [23:05]
Adam
I think we all feel that way. All right, snap counts and other stats to know. Weird game for Breeze Hall. He was out snapped by Isaiah Davis in the third quarter and the fourth quarter. Breeze hall played only 55% of the snaps. He had been over 70%, but it was a terrible week for him. The Jets, I forget who they get this week. They have a good matchup, though, and that's usually when he does. Well, I think they have a good matchup. I'll tell you in one second. They play the Saints on the road. Okay, here, how about this? I've been trying to make the case. Trey McBride is the fantasy MVP since Jacoby Brissette took over. There are two non quarterbacks averaging more PPR fantasy points per game than Trey McBride. Can you name them? That was starting in week six.
- [23:50]
Dan
Give me. Since. Since. Say it again. The whole thing.
- [23:53]
Adam
Since Jacoby Brissette took over in week six, only two non quarterbacks are averaging more fantasy points per game than Trey McBride. Can you name them? McBride is averaging 24.23.3 PPR fantasy points per game.
- [24:08]
Dan
I. I was. I thought he was wide receiver six overall. I saw it. I thought. I read today, but I guess that's on the season. So this is just since that breaking point where Brissette came in, which really saved his fantasy season and made him this dominant player, McBride. So two players would be Caffrey. Yep. Of course. Goes without saying. And Gibbs.
- [24:26]
Adam
Yep.
- [24:27]
Dan
Okay.
- [24:28]
Adam
They're both about a point per game better than.
- [24:30]
Dan
Yeah, but it is insane. McBride's essentially winning leagues for people.
- [24:34]
Adam
He's averaging over the season. He's averaging 19 points per game, which would be the second best season of Travis Kelsey's career. Kelsey's only had one year. He's been better than 19. And I think Kelsey is. Believe it or not, Kelsey is tight end 2 per game this year at 12.6 fantasy points per game. Oh, wait. No, no, no, no, no.
- [24:54]
Dan
That can't be true.
- [24:54]
Adam
I'm sorry.
- [24:56]
Dan
He's tied.
- [24:56]
Adam
He's tied into overall because Kittle missed. Kittle missed time. Bowers missed time.
- [25:03]
Dan
Power stinks for us. For fantasy, unfortunately.
- [25:07]
Adam
All right, other snap counts to know about. Michael Carter played 80% of the snaps. Amari Diamarcado played 12%.
- [25:13]
Dan
Yeah, he's gonna be somebody we're going to be telling eventually in big start sits spots.
- [25:18]
Adam
But Atlanta, I thought Atlanta was a great matchup. They really haven't been that bad against running backs lately.
- [25:23]
Dan
Quarterback.
- [25:23]
Adam
Yes. Kamani Vidal. Played 64 of the snaps. Omarion Hampton, 36%. You know, that's just basically Hampton doesn't play passing downs. Same thing with Travion Henderson. Henderson ran eight routes. Ramandre Stevenson out snapped him. Tyrone Tracy, season high in, in snapshare, ran a lot of routes. He's been kind of up and down in the routes. Run two of the last three weeks been very high. When Christian Watson got hurt, we saw big snapshare increases for Romeo Dobbs, Jaden Reed. Not really. Actually kind of kept his role. Don, Tavian Wicks and Matthew Golden. But Dobbs was the one who had an 82 route participation. 82% route participation rate in the second half.
- [26:07]
Dan
Still don't feel good about playing him though this week.
- [26:09]
Adam
No, he had really slumping. Chuba Hubbard remains the third down back for the Panthers. No surprise. You know, Troy Franklin had a big game and you thought, oh, it's because Pat Bryant didn't play. And a big increase in role. Not really. Troy Franklin played only 50% of the snaps. He just made the most of them. And he ran 61% of the routes, which was a big increase from last week where he was about 37% of the routes. But it was about the same as two weeks before. It's lower than what we usually saw from Franklin before Pat Bryant emerged. So he was actually, he. He ran fewer routes than little Jordan Humphrey. So I just wanted to point that out with Franklin. It's not like everything was, was golden again. He just happened to have a great game. And Brian Thomas Jr. Had a really good game. Four catches, 66 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. He also dropped a pretty easy touchdown and he dropped a much less easy deep ball. Would have been about a 35 yard catch. So he was pretty close to having six catches for about 108 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets. Brian Thomas Jr. By the way, both of his drops were immediately followed up by Travis ETN touchdown catches.
- [27:14]
Dan
Yeah.
- [27:14]
Adam
So ETN has BTJ to thank. All right, you ready for five big things?
- [27:20]
Dan
Let's do it.
- [27:20]
Adam
All right. I asked everybody for who do you want to hear about? So I got five that I saw in the responses. But before we dive into your five big things this week, a quick shout out to Amazon Prime. Need last minute holiday gifts. Prime's fast free shipping has you covered so you can focus on the plays, not the stress. Holiday wins delivered. It's on Prime. All right, here we go. Five big things. We start with Trevor Lawrence. As big as it gets. Most fantasy points by any player in any game this season. 54.1 in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues most fantasy points in over a year. Josh Allen topped that in week 14 of 2024. But it's now four straight good games. 23.1 or more fantasy points for Lawrence at Arizona, at Tennessee, Indianapolis and the jets. Unfortunately. Dan, we are at the Broncos this week. So what do you think about Lawrence?
- [28:15]
Dan
Well, we've talked about him now on BTB for like two or three straight weeks. Just grinding tape on him. These last two weeks before this one. I haven't seen the film yet. On this game were the two best games of his career on tape by far. And what I think is him and Liam Cohen coming together, understanding what is best. Like conceptually speaking, what is the best way to maximize his skill set as a thrower? Because he's not the best touch thrower. He doesn't have the best over the top touch on deep passes, but he can drive the football, man, and he can drive it in those intermediate digger outs and on those cross and deep overs and crossers breaking toward the middle of the field but also breaking on the outs. And that's what we're starting to see. Just these explosive shot play abilities for him. A big part of this I think because just from watching the last two games on tape again I didn't see this one but so I can't confirm has been just the emergence and arrival of Jacoby Myers because he's provided that solution for him underneath so he can read high to low and come to that Myers low. And it's there a lot like Myers just knows where to be in zone coverage and they talked about that this week. I believe it was the Jags offensive coordinator. I'm blanking on his name, but he discussed that importance of his role in the offense. So I feel really confident about where Lawrence is at. The question is, and he runs right, like that's a good part of his game too, right? 51 rushing yards and a rushing TD. It's huge. He's not just that stationary quarterback back. The question is can it continue against the Broncos defense that is elite but at the same time like some offensive schemes have figured out how to move it right. We just saw two weeks ago Marcus Mariota was able to move the ball pretty successfully in that Washington commander's offense and their scheme with Kingsbury was able to move it successfully. It's Liam Cohen against outmatch, maybe from personnel standpoint, but I'm pretty confident like I would start Lawrence for sure this week I wouldn't bench him.
- [30:00]
Adam
I don't know. I'm not that confident. I think I watched the tape of the last two games and obviously I don't. I'm never going to be able to. Well, I wouldn't say never, but I'm not going to be able to be like talking about all the things that Dan talked about. It's very impressive the way you look at tape, but the one thing that just so obviously jumps out has been the pass protection the last two weeks.
- [30:20]
Dan
Yeah.
- [30:21]
Adam
Against the Colts and the jets, who do not have good pass rushes. They are currently ranked 24th and 30th in pressure rate and each of the last two weeks, Jack, Jacksonville has been fourth best in pressure rate allowed. When they faced Houston six weeks ago, they were 28th. They haven't really faced a good pass rush since then. The best would be probably the Chargers and they were 11th week. Were they 11th that week? They were 10. Yeah, 10th that week. And so they did well. The offensive line is playing well, but they haven't really been challenged. The schedule has been as good as it gets.
- [30:54]
Dan
True.
- [30:54]
Adam
Denver can really get after it. I don't know if they still lead the NFL in sacks, but I'm pretty sure they led the NFL sacks coming into last week's game. How good has Jordan Love looked recently? Right. He's playing great football. And what did he score? 16 points yesterday. Got off to a good start. I actually think losing Watson really hurt him.
- [31:12]
Dan
Yes. Yes.
- [31:14]
Adam
And Brian Thomas Jr. Is kind of Christian Watson right now. He's doing everything pretty much downfield, but he's making plays typically. I know he had a couple of drops, but so there I could see it. I could see it with Lawrence because.
- [31:26]
Dan
He'S getting Denver or Jacksonville.
- [31:27]
Adam
That's the problem. It's in Denver that sucks. And Denver, the quarterbacks who have done well against Denver, they've all been in Denver road games except for Jackson Dart got a little lucky.
- [31:38]
Dan
Glad you said. I was about to say you better not forget about that.
- [31:40]
Adam
They've all been. They've been Daniel Jones, Jalen Hurts, Jackson Dart, Mariota and believe it or not, the Vegas quarterback scored 21.5 fantasy points. I am leaning sit Trevor Lawrence.
- [31:53]
Dan
I think you might be right but.
- [31:55]
Adam
I might be wrong. But. But you are definitely going to start him at the cold.
- [31:58]
Dan
I'm not making my decision yet though. On him?
- [32:00]
Adam
No, no. But they have the tenants.
- [32:02]
Dan
What is he on the season? I'd be. You'd be surprised to hear how high he is on the season, I bet at qb, just given the consistency he's had. And now these, now this explosive week. I guarantees top eight.
- [32:13]
Adam
Let's see. I. Yeah, I think he's going to be close to that.
- [32:17]
Dan
He was my big sleeper at the position preseason, so I'm hoping it was him and Stroud who both sucked forever.
- [32:22]
Adam
He's currently eight per game.
- [32:24]
Dan
He's eight, yeah. Eighth per game. Okay.
- [32:26]
Adam
Would you like to know what he was last week or two days ago before this?
- [32:30]
Dan
Probably in like the 12 to 14 range, right?
- [32:34]
Adam
Let's see. Look that up. Say if you, if you are a. In the CBS commissioner product, this is a cool feature. You can go to your stats page, you can click on custom report, type in all quarterbacks time frame, click select dates. We'll go week one to week 14 and then you will be able to see where Trevor Lawrence ranked and you'll be able to get this little tutorial for me as I kill time. Trevor Lawrence was 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17th, and now he's eighth.
- [33:06]
Dan
Wow.
- [33:08]
Adam
All right, so that's Trevor Lawrence. Let's go to our next player. It's Kyle Pitts. And boy, I think Kyle Pitts would be basically the easiest decision to make against Arizona next week because they are horrible against tight ends and he's on fire. Three straight games with eight or more targets. But Kyle Pitts has not played a game yet this year with Kirk Cousins and Drake London. And he's played a couple of partial games, but not a full game. And I have no idea what it's going to look like if London even.
- [33:41]
Dan
Plays, by the way.
- [33:42]
Adam
Yeah, I think they said he's expected to play or like they expressed optimism about him playing next week. I'm going to look that up now.
- [33:50]
Dan
I don't think he practiced all last week though, right?
- [33:53]
Adam
No, but they had a short week. They played Thursday.
- [33:55]
Dan
Yeah, he may have.
- [33:57]
Adam
I don't know this actually.
- [33:59]
Dan
Did he practice?
- [34:01]
Adam
He may have. Let's look. It's. It's not even a question. You start pits. If, If London, you. Not only do you start pits, he's. He might be. He's probably tight end too, if he is in the rankings. Like you're gonna go McBride over him and then pits. But if London plays, how would you feel about him at Arizona?
- [34:20]
Dan
Still feel great, right? The matchup you said is amazing weather, controlled environment. Love that. Cousins, like, you know, everybody, everybody crapped on Cousins and what happens, he gets a little bit more Time in this offense starts to get the timing down, starts to be getting the ball out fast. There were a lot of really good throws on tape from Kirk Cousins in this last game against the Bucks. Now I know he has a history of just beating up on the Todd bowl scheme. He understands how to beat that scheme. He's played against it a lot and that's a factor for sure. But this Cardinals defense has quit. Like they quit. This coach is gone. This defense is horrific. They get run through every single week. I think he's one of the best plays on the whole slate. Like they finally figuring out how to use this talent. Maybe it's just because he's finally healthy, but he is unreal. Like he can't be stopped. It looks like Florida version of Kyle Pitts. Like you get him matched up one on one, any kind of man he'll beat in zone. You can have him cross into areas of the zone and then just use his speed and size. There's. I mean, what are you asking if we're gonna play him or if we're expecting another big.
- [35:19]
Adam
No, we're gonna play him.
- [35:21]
Dan
Well, obviously he's a must start player.
- [35:23]
Adam
I think he's a must start player if London's out against Arizona. Who's bad against tight ends when you don't really have that many good tight ends right now. He's a must start player anyway. But, but I just want to point like Kyle Pitts had a really disappointing career and it's really no coincidence to me that he's going crazy with Drake London out because Drake London usually gets double digit targets. But yeah, I think you're going to start his cousins too, one way or the other.
- [35:48]
Dan
I'll say this about that. Cousins skill set is a better fit for Pitts than it is for London versus Panic. Skill set is a better fit for London than it is for Pitts.
- [35:58]
Adam
All right, all right. That's an easy one, I guess. And congratulations if you advance with Kyle Pitts this week.
- [36:05]
Dan
Huge game.
- [36:05]
Adam
45 fantasy points.
- [36:07]
Dan
Unreal.
- [36:07]
Adam
We're going to take a break and talk about Tyrone Tracy. Of the five big things that we're talking about, this is the one I have no research on. So, Dan, get your arm warmed up in the bullpen. You're coming in. We'll be right back on Fantasy football today.
- [36:24]
Host/Announcer
What's up? It's Draymond Green. I'm back for my 14th NBA season and my podcast, the Draymond Green show is back too. This season I'm breaking down games, reacting to the biggest NBA stories and sitting down with teammates, rivals and culture shapers. And trust me, I'm not holding back on the court or on the mic. Two new episodes every week. New segments, big conversations, real basketball talk for the real hoop head. Listen to and follow the Draymond Green show, wherever you get your podcast. We're back. We're better.
- [36:52]
Dan
Let's get it.
- [36:54]
Adam
All right. Big game from Tyrone Tracy Jr. Who was started in 18% of leagues.
- [36:59]
Dan
Yeah.
- [36:59]
Adam
And he goes for 15 carries, 70 yards, one touchdown, three more catches, 27 yards and a really nice touchdown catch against the Washington Commanders. Now the competition steps up. Minnesota this week at home, they've been a little inconsistent. They've been very inconsistent against the run. And also defensive tackle Javon Hargrave left with an injury for Minnesota. But what do you make of the Giants backfield? Because do you feel like it's, it's been since Scatter Boo got hurt? Basically a hot hand approach.
- [37:30]
Dan
Most weeks I think it was the case until. If you really look at the splits, what we should do is look at the splits with Kafka versus before, before Dable was fired. So I feel like during the Kafka stretch, it's been mostly Tracy getting the, the, the majority of the workload because he believes he can give them a better chance to win. It's honestly probably their second best, if not best playmaker on the field at all times. I guess you can say Wandell, but Tracy really has shown the ability to give them versatility in their pass run game. You can do a better job of marrying the pass and run game if he's on the field because he can do things like he did on that touchdown catch, which is, you know, run a wheel route and then adjust to a back shoulder ball and make the catch. Because he's a former receiver, I think he runs hard. I think he's doing a good job of pacing his runs. The touchdown run was excellent yards after contact. The problem is I don't have much faith he's going to do this against Minnesota again. He still could lose some red zone roll. Some of the red zone touches, I should say to Singletary, as in the past, I don't think that's something that's impossible. He's had fumbles, fumbling issues both of his first two seasons, mostly his rookie season that's led to him being pulled from games. It's not a player I, I trust to a major extent against them in a matchup like the Vikings, to be honest.
- [38:43]
Adam
So before this game against Washington in my opinion, Tyrone Tracy Jr. Faced three defenses that are better against the run than Minnesota. Two of them, I would say, you know, well, one of them definitively better and then the other two, I guess are close. But I just, I see a lot of inconsistencies with Minnesota, but. Green Bay at Detroit, at New England. He had a really good game against Green Bay. 19 carries, 88 yards, 4 catches, 51 yards, 17.9 fantasy points. Against Detroit, he scored 16 fantasy points. That's, that's the, I want to say that's the second most that any running back had scored all year. So now it's probably the third or fourth most because the Rams guys did really well. But 20 carries, 62 yards and three catches for 68 yards. And then New England was a bad game and he left with an injury. 10 carries for 36 yards, one catch for negative three yards. And then this game against Washington, two touchdowns. But I think what sticks out to me is in three of his last four games he has three or four catches and the one time he didn't was New England and he left that game with an injury. So I hope that keeps up. If he gets three catches, he's doing a lot with the catches.
- [39:54]
Dan
Right.
- [39:54]
Adam
Then you're probably going to have a double digit PPR fantasy point game. Will it be great? I don't know.
- [39:59]
Dan
But the, the issue is just like it's, it's a ceiling cap situation with an offense unlikely, I would say, to score more than one or two touchdowns against the Vikings defense. Yeah. But you know, ride it out. He's probably better than a lot of the plays on the slate because he's actually getting, you know, near 80 or he had near 80 snap share in this game. Right. Wasn't it 79 in this seven?
- [40:22]
Adam
76.5%.
- [40:24]
Dan
Yeah. Which you just don't get much.
- [40:26]
Adam
Yeah, but you didn't get it. You, you don't get it consistently with him. It was a lazy.
- [40:30]
Dan
You have though, because he's been the hot, like they, they're not going to look at this game tape and be like, let's go back to a split backfield.
- [40:36]
Adam
What are they going to do if they get to the one or two yard line?
- [40:38]
Dan
That, that, that's a problem. It's not a guarantee to be Tracy, which is again why his ceiling is certainly capped. But you brought up a good point about the receptions and a little bit of work in the run in the passing game. Just generally speaking a weapon for them in that regard. Yeah.
- [40:52]
Adam
All right.
- [40:52]
Dan
You get to The Raiders matchup, it should be good.
- [40:56]
Adam
Yeah, that's going to be potentially the battle for the number one pick.
- [41:00]
Dan
No, the Giants are going to win that game and blow the number one pick.
- [41:04]
Adam
Haven't you learned and this is for all football fans, right? Like haven't you learned that doesn't matter unless there's that generational player, which there isn't.
- [41:12]
Dan
Does matter though, if Mendoza keeps it up. If the Dozer goes into this college football playoff and dozes away to a title and looks good doing it, you could get a halt for that first overall pick. The Giants, they could trade it back to a desperate team or a stupid team, I should say, like Jets. Sorry to jets fans. They are horrific franchise. Somehow worse than the Giants. One of the only ones left and get next year's one and a second early set. Like just get a hole for the Dozer. Okay, what do you think of this nickname that I created for him, the Dozer? Some people hate it, some people love it. I love it. Okay, good. Most people hate it.
- [41:46]
Adam
Based on all the interviews I've seen. You know who would love it?
- [41:50]
Dan
Kirk Cousins.
- [41:50]
Adam
The Dozer.
- [41:52]
Dan
He is really, is he not just a reincarnation of Kirk Cousins?
- [41:56]
Adam
Yeah, he's got this goofy ways, affable, good natured way to him.
- [42:01]
Dan
It's fun. Yeah, no, I love him. I'm rooting for him and I don't know, I, I haven't done film work on him so I don't know, I can't wait to do it for beyond the box or this year, this summer because usually I don't get to quarterbacks once the Giants have one. But I'm excited to see what I think him because he does have more athleticism than Cousins for sure did coming out arm talent wise. Like I'm not sure. And I do worry that like Curtis o' Rourke or whatever his name, not Curtis o', Rourke, what was that kid's name who was quarterback for Indiana last year. Whatever it was was like really good in that system too. It does feel a little systemy with Doza, but he comes up with big throws at big moments.
- [42:38]
Adam
I, I watched him last year. One of the wildest games of the football season was Miami at cal, which started 10pm Eastern. And I was up super early the next morning for work or whatever and it was, it was a crazy Cam Ward comeback. Crazy. And I never looked at Mendoza and thought, oh, he could be the number one pick someday. But that's how it works these days. And I, you know who else was like that, that I watched play Miami one year and couldn't believe he was a hyped prospect. Was Daniel Jones like what I remember Miami, but at least Mendoza had a good game against him.
- [43:09]
Dan
He wasn't a hyped prospect. Daniel Jones, only the Giants view.
- [43:12]
Adam
I guess that's true.
- [43:13]
Dan
Prospect like no one else to be like, oh, most people gave him a second round trade. The dozer is going to get that first overall pay. Like who else are you giving it to at this point? If you need a quarterback, you're going does.
- [43:24]
Adam
Yeah. If you need a quarterback.
- [43:25]
Dan
Yeah.
- [43:25]
Adam
All right. Joe Burrow is our next big topic. Big thing. And he said he had one of his worst games and he really did. He struggled. 5.5 fantasy points against Baltimore. And up next it will be at Miami. Oh, Miami. They're so easy. They've been pretty good defensively lately. They're running all over people. They're. They're probably controlling the clock and they haven't really faced a lot of good competition. But I like that the fact that the game's in Miami.
- [43:51]
Dan
Right.
- [43:51]
Adam
We don't have to worry about it. This game yesterday was like negative two windshield.
- [43:54]
Dan
Agreed.
- [43:55]
Adam
I like that it's in Miami. Let me ask you this. Is it. Is. Is it as simple as if T. Higgins plays next week, we start Joe Burrow if T. Higgins doesn't play, we have a decision to make.
- [44:08]
Dan
That's fair to say we have a decision to make. I don't think I'll ever bench Joe Burrow personally. Like I could use this as like a one off game where he struggled but most of the time he's delivering for you. The question I have is like Higgins could come back from the concussion but like what's the point to play if you're the Bengals or Burrow, like what is the point to play down the stretch? I don't, like I don't know if they're gonna bench these guys at some point or rest. Like yeah, I'm a little concerned about that.
- [44:36]
Adam
I'm not super concerned. Okay. Not for this week. Now if they go out for this week, they go out and lose the Miami then, then maybe.
- [44:43]
Dan
So let's keep it on this week. Burrow vs. Miami in a wet. A great weather situation spot in Miami. I think he'll look good.
- [44:49]
Adam
Good or without Higgins could always rain. But yeah, I mean, right. But we're thinking I looking at him without Higgins last year. Yeah, he scored 10.8 fantasy points at Cleveland. He scored nine against Jacksonville. But he only was get rid of that. He got hurt in that game, I think.
- [45:09]
Dan
Yeah.
- [45:10]
Adam
Oh, no, I'm sorry. I'm looking at this year. Where's my. Oh, here we go. Last year without Higgins, here is Fantasy points at 6 point per passing, touchdown leagues. 8.1, 21.2, 14.9. Not good. And then 39.1, 41.7. So he's got that potential. But it is worth noting, right? It's three out of five games last year where he underperformed. Two games he was terrible. And two games this year, I think it was both Baltimore games without Higgins. Right.
- [45:39]
Dan
He.
- [45:40]
Adam
And he threw like. Did he have a good game against Baltimore two times ago? Two, two matchups ago.
- [45:45]
Dan
Yeah, yeah. Yes, he did. Yes, he did.
- [45:47]
Adam
23.2 fantasy points. But on 46 pass attempts. Not exact. Didn't exactly light it up. And then yesterday he stunk. I watched three quarters of. I didn't watch the fourth quarter, but to me this was a game of missed opportunities. First drive is really good drive for them. Jamar Chase has a drop, a really easy ball, just a bad drop. And then on the next play, a 15 yard sack out of field goal range. Then later in the first quarter, I believe. No, I was in the second quarter. Deep ball in the end zone. Would have been a 29 yard touchdown if it had been caught. 2 Jamar Chase. It wasn't really Chase's fault. Looked like a pretty good throw to me. But Chase was kind of hand fighting. Didn't see it until a little bit late. So that's an incomplete pass. Next play, another throw to Chase, a little too high. Intercepted. Then you had a play later in the second quarter where Andre Yosef got open deep ball was a little bit under thrown. Yosef was contacted by Starks right as he was catching the ball. Incomplete pass. That could have been a 30 yard gain. So it's just a little bit off for Burrow. I think he's going to be fine. Read you something though, what you think about this because this is again like kind of out of my pay grade. This is from Bengals.com a mere 17 days after Burrow throttled the Ravens in his storybook comeback.
- [47:15]
Host/Announcer
Wow.
- [47:16]
Adam
I didn't even realize like how, how over the top he throttled the Ravens.
- [47:21]
Dan
He said it was bangles.com yeah, I didn't even like the in house beat writer.
- [47:25]
Adam
That was the. Oh my gosh.
- [47:26]
Dan
With all due respect, this is great job to do.
- [47:28]
Adam
Let me keep reading it because it actually is good analysis in here. But after this first part, a mere 17 days after Burrow throttled the Ravens in his storybook comeback with two third down laser touchdowns, Baltimore got him back with a tweaked look up front that sent the Bengals to a 3 for 15 day on third down. The new spacing from the Ravens interchangeable front seven was apparently an effort to slow down the Bengals effective double teams in the run game and force hesitation in pass protection with various players in various spots.
- [48:01]
Dan
Wow. I was on. I apologize. Unfamiliar with your game. Bengals Beatriders. Right. Analysis terrific.
- [48:07]
Adam
After.
- [48:07]
Dan
After the little hyperbole to build up.
- [48:11]
Adam
What did you think about that? Interesting, huh?
- [48:13]
Dan
That was interesting. I mean, I didn't see the tape on that, but I would like to see what the Ravens did to slow him down. I don't think it'll be something that can be replicated by a team like Miami on a short week or something like that, but just interesting.
- [48:24]
Adam
Yeah.
- [48:24]
Dan
Well, looking forward, division games, they've seen these players the most like. It comes down to this a lot. We've seen the Browns defense have so much success with Burrow over the career. Over this career.
- [48:33]
Adam
All right, last topic here. Our last big thing is Rasheed Rice with garbage Minshew. The matchups the next two weeks could not be more different at Tennessee, which is the do a cartwheel and home against the Broncos. So what do you think?
- [48:52]
Dan
I'm highly unlike. It sucks because I do have Rice on two teams making it the semis, but I'm highly unlikely to play him against the Broncos. He will be on my bench against the Broncos and I am debating benching him against the Tennessee Titans. I won't do it. It's much more likely that he's going to remain in my lineup. Adam.
- [49:10]
Adam
Oh, I'm gonna start him against the Titans.
- [49:12]
Dan
I think I have to and I think we have to. But things could get real ugly real fast for Rice. From a fantasy standpoint, we do not know what, like we do not know how Minchu is going to read out this Annie Reed offense. It could end up being a totally different target share than we're, than we've grown accustomed to with the Chiefs. I. I'm just not entirely sure.
- [49:37]
Adam
Okay, I'm gonna try to help you out here. I'm one minute away from.
- [49:40]
Dan
I can even feel confident one minute.
- [49:42]
Adam
Away from finishing this research here. So this is. This is useless. But I'll give it to you anyway because it's better than having nothing to go off of. So last year he played for the Raiders. Gardner Minshew, he was their starting quarterback for the first 12 weeks of the season. And if you look at Brock Bowers production with Minshew and then after Minchu, he was I guess kind of worse with Minchu and then if you look at Jacoby Myers production, well, he was I guess kind of worse with Minchu. So that's a little discouraging that both.
- [50:27]
Dan
Of them was the best. Probably the best we had.
- [50:30]
Adam
What'd you say?
- [50:31]
Dan
AOC was definitely better for that offense.
- [50:35]
Adam
Yeah.
- [50:36]
Dan
Make sure I just correct. I look at it like Minchu, his whole career has been kind of up and down. He had a nice hot start at one point I thought he was the best quarterback potentially in that 2019 class, which is crazy. But he's fallen off. I just don't really know like how this offense will operate. I guess that's my biggest concern. Like most of Rice's production. Adam, I'm sure you feel this way has been manufactured. I don't feel like it's been Rice dominating. And I think Jacob and I went over this past week like from a, from all those advanced stats standpoint, Rice has not been very good this year. He has not been good at creating separation. He has not been good after the catch. He has no verticality to his game. So like he could be force fed targets and become like this short area ppr. I don't want to say Chico, but like someone who you can put in your lineup the rest of the season and get a certain floor amount of points in PPR leagues and I'm fine with that. Like against the Titans. I'll leave him in my lineup for that upside. But it's so hard for me to buy into a player who's been struggling individually with now backup quarterback.
- [51:40]
Adam
But he's been really good.
- [51:42]
Dan
I mean yeah, fantasy wise he's been good. It's been a lot of force fed targets.
- [51:47]
Adam
So Jacob pointed this out to me last week on beyond the Box. Yeah, Rashid Rice and other Chiefs receivers are much better against zone than they are man. Like they just don't really have a man beater. Rasheed Rice's splits against zone and man are wild. Which is why one of the reasons why I thought he was going to have a good game against the Chargers. The Chargers are one of the most zone heavy teams in the NFL and he really didn't have that good of a game seven chance for 50.
- [52:12]
Dan
What'd you say?
- [52:13]
Adam
Too cold?
- [52:14]
Dan
It's just, you know how I feel about my cold. My conspiracy goal game. I'm just joking.
- [52:18]
Adam
Nah, Tennessee is 20th in man rate they play a lot of zone and who's they have that? Denver. Denver plays a lot of man. They're the third highest man coverage team. So Denver's gonna be really tough. I mean if you're telling me Denver was next week obviously we can change our mind based on what we see in week 16. But if you're telling me that Denver was this week 16 game. No ch. I'm just probably number like low end number two receiver. I might start over a guy like Justin Jefferson or something. But he's in that.
- [52:45]
Dan
That's what I'm saying. Yeah, but.
- [52:46]
Adam
But I think. I think against Tennessee I'm. I'm confident enough. I mean their. Their defense is just atrocious. I mean.
- [52:53]
Dan
But you agree the ceiling is certainly capped.
- [52:55]
Adam
Yeah, I'd have to say so.
- [52:58]
Dan
That's the problem. Like he was a league winner in his early return. He's definitely no longer a league winner. I don't think down the stretch run.
- [53:04]
Adam
Probably not.
- [53:05]
Dan
Maybe a supportive piece.
- [53:07]
Adam
Well, hopefully. How'd your week 15 go?
- [53:11]
Dan
Mine went really well. Exception of one league. The office league. Shout out. Adi do you think. What do you think of this in our office league? He hasn't. It's a 16 team league which I actually find really fun. It's the only one I'm in that deep. But he has an 18 playoff in a 16 team league where if you're the one seed you get nothing. You have to face the eight seed. Do you think that's fair or unfair? Like so I was the one seed and I only lost two games in a regular season. I had like 200 points more. I lost. It was my only loss of the weekend in fantasy I lost to our friend Adam London who in really a gross matchup like I had Romo Dunes in my LineUp and at 12:58 he was ruled out and I the lineups were locked at that point so I had to take that zero. That was really.
- [53:56]
Adam
Oh you. So I heard about this.
- [53:58]
Dan
Oh you did hear about this London.
- [54:01]
Adam
I'm not going to tell you who told me about it. I heard about this controversy because.
- [54:05]
Dan
So what do you think?
- [54:06]
Adam
I thought you should have been. I thought anyone who. Whose lineups locked at 1255 as some platforms do and some platforms don't and saw it like soon enough should I.
- [54:16]
Dan
Saw it right away. I posted right to the message.
- [54:18]
Adam
Absolutely have been able to. To get a Dunes out of their lineup.
- [54:21]
Dan
I think so too.
- [54:22]
Adam
And you weren't able to.
- [54:23]
Dan
I was not.
- [54:24]
Adam
Would it have made a difference in the game in the outcome?
- [54:27]
Dan
I don't think so. I think ultimately I didn't even check back because I was so disgusted with my entire team's performance. Like, I. Again, I dominated the regular season and just like looked horrific in this game. Let me see if it would have mattered. Actually, I don't think it did have because. Because Pickens was so bad. No. Ended up losing by 16 points. I don't think it would have mattered. Okay.
- [54:45]
Adam
All right. Yeah, I got a lot of heat for that take. I think I didn't explain it clearly enough. I wasn't saying at like 3pm you'd be like, hey, I had real mode.
- [54:52]
Host/Announcer
Yeah.
- [54:53]
Adam
But I felt right away, pretty much right away.
- [54:56]
Dan
Yeah.
- [54:56]
Adam
I mean, I would even say, honestly, I would even say if somebody was like, oh man, I set my lineup and then I, I don't know, went to church or had something and I didn't know and that like, like 2 o' clock or during halftime, I. I saw he was out. Can I put in a guy from a 4:00 clock game? I probably would do it, but I'm the most like lenient commissioner in the world.
- [55:17]
Dan
I just think there would. The fact of the matter is I was trying to explain my case then. No hard feelings. Like, I'm, I'm totally fine with it. My case was if I had any opportunity to avoid it and I didn't take that opportunity, then it's on me. But I had no option. Right. Like he was announced at 12:58 and a minute. I got that notification I sent to the message board, like, can I make this change in my lineup? But it is what it is. It's fine. I just think, I don't know how you'd set up a 16 team league with an 18 playoff where the 1 plays the 8. Like this just gives you. Literally, it made to me, it made the regular season. Yeah, that's right. Spicy. Jim Jumblai says the 1C not getting a buy is the bigger travesty. It makes the regular season worth nothing. Like toward the end of the year, Adam, once I realized that that was how the playoffs were set up, I was like barely even caring about my lineups and like big decisions that league. So I was like, I'm the one. See, but what do I care about? I may rather play the seven seed. I don't know. And the fact of the matter is, like, I probably would have rather. I don't know what the seven seed did. My team was so bad I might have lost anyway.
- [56:13]
Adam
No problem.
- [56:14]
Dan
Right now I Don't know. I think I would have beat the seven seed.
- [56:17]
Adam
All right, so if you, if you had, if you had given the first two seeds a buy, then you've got three matchups but then you end up with five teams the next round.
- [56:26]
Dan
No, no, you can't do that. You have to do a 17 playoff with one seed getting the ball team.
- [56:31]
Adam
Okay.
- [56:31]
Dan
Yeah. That's what you do.
- [56:32]
Host/Announcer
Yeah.
- [56:32]
Dan
And it's 16 team league. You don't need eight teams in the playoffs anyway. You can do a 17 with a one with a one getting the buy.
- [56:38]
Adam
All right. Well everybody, I hope you enjoyed today's show. Appreciate your comments. Appreciate you helping us out with our topics today. And that wraps up your five big things brought to you by Amazon Prime. Remember, prime isn't just fast. It's your secret weapon for last minute holiday wins. Forgot a gift for a friend or a family member? Need something for tonight's party? Prime gets it there quickly turning last minute panic into a smooth win this season. You can count on prime to deliver right when you need it most. Last minute gifts delivered. It's on Prime. And Dan, you look like someone who's done all this holiday shopping.
- [57:13]
Dan
You're good to go. No, I am a last minute shopper and I will be getting it done using a lot of prime as you just mentioned. Before we end the show, I want your final prediction on a couple things. One, I want you to search. Well, give me your prediction on Miami football in the College Football Playoff. That's the start. Two, the one I'm more important interested in is you circling back to a take you had preseason about Carson Beck trending toward being the number one overall pick in the NFL.
- [57:41]
Adam
We're still on this.
- [57:42]
Dan
We're never going off of it.
- [57:44]
Adam
I don't even know if he's going to get drafted.
- [57:46]
Host/Announcer
Okay.
- [57:46]
Dan
Isn't that what I told you at the time of your take?
- [57:48]
Adam
Okay. Congratulations. A bad take. You could just kill me on this all year. Geez, it's going to be 2035 you're going to be talking about this.
- [57:55]
Dan
I might bring this up for the rest of our time knowing each other. Yes.
- [57:58]
Adam
My take is Texas A and M is very beatable. Okay, this is what Miami gets into trouble. Miami gets into trouble when they don't run the ball well. They've been very inconsistent and they commit penalties. So you get a lot of third and long and they have to have to stay out of that. So what makes me really nervous is a few things. One is super loud stadium and Miami Has a penchant to go out to false start and pre snap penalties. That's going to kill them if they fall into that trap. And the other thing is, I can't remember the name of the guy on Louisville. The wide receiver. Bell, I think.
- [58:32]
Dan
Yeah. Who got hurt.
- [58:33]
Adam
He killed Miami and he was the best. The best receiver they've faced all year. Texas A and M has two really good wide receivers. Miami's got a good secondary, but it hasn't really been tested. So I lean A and M by like a point. I take Miami plus three and a half, but Miami's nasty. A and M's had a pretty damn easy schedule. This is the. Yeah, they have best or second best team that they've faced pretty much. Well, no, they faced Notre Dame. I forget like. And they beat them.
- [59:06]
Dan
They beat Notre Dame. Week two.
- [59:07]
Adam
Everybody's concerned about Carson Beck. A and M's quarterback, Marcel Reed. He is super inconsistent. He's throwing like nine picks in eight sec games. So we could get. If we get after him, we're going to be good. We faced a lot of mobile quarterbacks. It's going to be a really good game. I think I lean A M, but I think it's a good chance for Miami to win.
- [59:27]
Dan
All right. I think Miami has a chance to win if they dominate online scrimmage with their defensive line, which is certainly possible.
- [59:32]
Adam
And A M has a. They have. What's his name? Cassius something. They have this defensive end that's so good, Cassius Howell. Miami has not. They faced some good defensive ends. Admit there's not been a single game where they have been beaten at the line of scrimmage. Yeah, they have the best, probably the best offensive line in the country or top two, top three. So that's. The trenches are going to be where this game's decided and the penalty.
- [59:56]
Dan
All right.
- [59:57]
Adam
Thank you for indulging me. Have a great day everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow on fantasy football Today. Paramount Podcast.
- [60:12]
Host/Announcer
The College Football Playoff is everything.
- [60:15]
Adam
Toughness, roles, sacrifices.
- [60:17]
Host/Announcer
Place your focus. This is where i50 everything you got all damn day. The attention to detail is like none other. Be physical. Keep playing. We are the winner.
- [60:27]
Adam
Tulane takes on Ole Miss followed by James Madison in Oregon. It's time to bring it first round.
- [60:32]
Host/Announcer
Coverage of the college football playoffs presented.
- [60:34]
Dan
By allstate Saturday at 3:30 Eastern on TNT and HBO. Max, are you ready?
- [60:39]
Host/Announcer
Let's go.