Fantasy Football Today (FFT) — "Beyond the Box Score: Nico Collins, Ken Walker, Baker Mayfield, Omarion Hampton, Michael Carter"

Date: December 22, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer (Adam), Dan Schneier (Dan), Jacob Gibbs (Jacob)

Brief Overview

This episode of FFT goes "beyond the box score," breaking down the advanced stats and week 16 performances for key fantasy players like Nico Collins, Ken Walker, Baker Mayfield, Omarion Hampton, and Michael Carter. The crew discusses the chaos of the fantasy semifinals, unpacks injuries and snap counts, and debates lineup decisions for the fantasy championship week, offering actionable insights and a healthy dose of therapy for suffering fantasy managers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Agony of Playoff Upsets and Randomness

[02:23-06:13]

• The team opens with tales of heartbreak from the fantasy semifinals. Dan laments first-seeded teams crashing out, exclaiming:

  "First seed not even making it to the finals. All three teams are going down… it's a league that doesn't reward the points winners, and sometimes you can lose in the playoffs. That's how it goes." (Dan, 03:03)

• Adam reminds listeners:

  "Getting to the playoffs is a huge accomplishment. It’s just tough, one week and all it's up for all the marbles. It’s about luck." (Adam, 04:20)

• Discussion of league formats: Some leagues reward points over head-to-head in playoffs; the crew has mixed feelings but mostly accepts the luck factor.

Patriots-Ravens Recap & Injury Fallout

[06:13-13:44]

• Drake Maye had a stellar game — 27.7 fantasy points, 380 passing yards, and impressive deep ball accuracy (7 of 10 for 184 yards and a TD on deep throws).
• Key injuries: Travion Henderson (concussion), Kayshawn Boutte (WR, concussion), Lamar Jackson (day-to-day with back injury).
• Jacob on starting Ramondre Stevenson next week:

  "Yeah...if Henderson’s out, you’re definitely starting him. You might be able to start him either way in this matchup against the Jets." (Jacob, 08:12)

• Stefon Diggs saw increased route rate (80%).
• Ravens Outlook: If Lamar’s out and Huntley starts, Adam says:

  "We’re talking about a team that... averaged 14 points per game without Lamar. If it’s Huntley, you can probably start Henry, but not Flowers." (Adam, 13:10-13:20)

Fantasy Playoffs Therapy & Podcast Year-End Vibes

[13:44-18:15]

• Hosts console each other and listeners as they reflect on a ‘tilting’ playoff week and share anecdotes of bad beats and questionable lineup decisions.
• Jacob describes benched players and self-inflicted wounds:

  "Jackson Dart over Matthew Stafford...if you're mad at me for the Matthew Stafford concern, I'm right here with you." (Jacob, 05:27)

• Dan jokes about broadcast quality and how “everybody hits that point,” hinting at play-by-play struggles (e.g., Al Michaels).

Snap Counts & Advanced Usage Notes

[22:25-29:26]

• Rocket (Raheim) Sanders: Intriguing, explosive option for Cleveland with potential for 10–15 touches.

  "He can churn out yards and... can create explosive plays. They call him Rocket for a reason." (Jacob, 24:50)

• Dallas: Javonte Williams (57% snaps, but only 9 carries).
• Jameer Gibbs: Workhorse role with 86% snap rate, 13 targets.
• Chiefs: Isaiah Pacheco (72% snaps, 65% routes)—“highest target per route run rate of his career”.
• Audric Estime (Saints): Led but in a tough spot due to Taysom Hill’s involvement.
• Bucky Irving (Tampa Bay/Bucs): Snap count up, but limited high-value usage. Concerns about his health and passing game role.
• Chris Godwin and Mike Evans both clear 80% routes, big uptick, especially for Evans.

Five Big Things: Deep Dives on Key Fantasy Starters

[31:55-53:31]

1. Seattle Running Backs: Ken Walker & Zach Charbonnet

[33:00-36:42]

• Both had productive fantasy weeks in a surprise blow-up game; now face Carolina’s porous run D.
• The crew debates their trust level:

  "Ken Walker to me looks like clearly the best player on the field... But I don't know if I can trust him." (Dan, 33:00) "I would hope to avoid both of them... probably will rank both outside the top 30 RBs this week." (Jacob, 33:55)

• Discussion of frustrating timeshares and the need for big plays for fantasy relevance:

  "When this guy (Charbonnet) doesn't score a touchdown, he is... awful." (Adam, 33:46)

2. Nico Collins: What Happened?

[38:15-39:59]

• Subdued week (4-59-0), but after watching the tape, Jacob says:

  "I thought Nico played great. There were two extremely close sideline toe drags, and a couple wide-open misses...easily could have been 100, 110 yards." (Jacob, 38:15) "I'm fine going there (starting him)... Decent chance this ends up a big Nico Collins game." (Jacob, 39:31)

• Adam notes Collins' end zone target luck: 14 end zone targets but just 4 TDs, perhaps due to Stroud’s poor red zone accuracy.

3. Baker Mayfield & the Bucs Offense

[40:51-46:36]

• Dissecting a dull, conservative, low-ADOT game against Carolina. Jacob defends Baker's play:

  "I don't think (Baker) played bad... I thought his accuracy was pretty good." (Jacob, 42:26) "The offense lacks juice... the playcalling seems stale." (Jacob, 44:45)

• Adam's bottom line:

  "If he weren't playing the Dolphins, I don't think people would want to start Baker Mayfield, but the matchup's enticing... he'll be a top 15 QB, maybe." (Adam, 45:12)

• Jacob drops the deep-dive numbers: Tampa running motion on only 34% of plays (league avg: 50%), just 6% play-action (league avg: 23%) — "just stale." (Jacob, 46:22)

4. Omarion Hampton’s Big Opportunity

[46:36-51:01]

• Strong in Week 16 (16 carries, 85 yds, TD), now faces a Houston run D that can be "deceptively" effective.
• Adam:

  "If Vidal is out, I don't see... how you can't start Hampton as a number two running back." (Adam, 48:28)

• Jacob:

  "Hampton’s been more effective than Vidal — 3.5 yards after contact per rush, higher explosive run rate... one of the most effective RBs in the NFL this year." (Jacob, 49:07)

• Some concern about splits and lack of reception upside, but with Vidal out, top-20 RB workload is likely.

5. Michael Carter: Championship-Week Flex?

[51:05-53:31]

• Faces the Bengals, weakest D vs RBs.
• Dan wavers:

  "Confidence? No. But will I do it? Possibly...as a back-end flex." (Dan, 51:41)

• Carter shares work with Corey Kiner (potential goal-line back); volume, not talent, is the hope.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Playoff Variance:

"Sometimes you can lose in the playoffs. That's just how it goes. So yeah, I'm not having a good day." (Dan, 03:07)

On Bucs’ Playcalling:

"There's just... it seems like they're lacking creativity. It seems like defenses are kind of ahead of them a lot. I just... have not liked it when I watch it. It just feels like it kind of lacks juice." (Jacob, 44:45)

On Ken Walker Usage:

"He has two games this year with more than 60% of the running back carries... and never more than 65%." (Adam, 34:38)

On Rocket Sanders’ Late-Season Value:

"He might look a little clunky... but he can really get going. If he hits his top gear, it's really fast." (Jacob, 24:50)

On Ad Scripts and Announcers:

"He just doesn't get excited anymore. Just refuses... That game was arguably the best of the year. It required it." (Adam, on Al Michaels, 36:07)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:03] – Semifinals heartbreak: Bad beats, luck, and league structure
• [06:51] – Patriots-Ravens recap: Drake Maye breakout, injuries
• [13:10] – Ravens’ offense without Lamar Jackson
• [22:50] – Snap count nuggets: Rocket Sanders, Sanders, Dallas split, Pacheco role
• [33:00] – Seattle RBs analysis: Start/sit debate
• [38:15] – Nico Collins film review and fantasy outlook
• [40:51] – Baker Mayfield & Tampa Bay offensive struggles dissected
• [46:36] – Omarion Hampton’s role and Houston matchup
• [51:05] – Michael Carter as a risky flex against Cincinnati

Flow and Tone

The episode balances fantasy football nerdery with self-deprecating humor and group therapy for rough playoff outcomes. The crew's camaraderie provides levity even as they dissect tough lineup decisions — and they don't let themselves or each other off the hook for questionable calls.

Summary for Non-Listeners

This FFT episode delivers a granular look at key Week 16 storylines and player usage, blending actionable advice for championship week with the honesty of battle-tested fantasy managers. If you're considering starting Tampa Bay offensive players, Seattle RBs, Nico Collins, Omarion Hampton, or Michael Carter, you'll find honest, stats-driven takes alongside relatable playoff pain and the warning that, at this stage, risk tolerance and context are everything.

For more, subscribe and listen to FFT — the analysis here will help you win (or at least survive) your fantasy championships.