Beyond the Box Score: Pacheco's Outlook, Backup RBs, Advanced Metrics and More (12/09 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today - Episode Summary

Title: Beyond the Box Score: Pacheco's Outlook, Backup RBs, Advanced Metrics and More
Release Date: December 9, 2024

In this comprehensive episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by Adam Aizer alongside analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, the team delves deep into the nuances of the fantasy football landscape. Covering everything from player performance analytics to strategic lineup decisions, this episode equips fantasy managers with the insights needed to secure their playoff positions.

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1. Opening and Game Recap (00:00 - 02:34)

The episode kicks off with a brief game recap, highlighting exciting plays and setting the stage for deeper analysis. Adam Aizer introduces the theme of "Beyond the Box Score," emphasizing the importance of looking beyond traditional statistics to gain a competitive edge in fantasy football.

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2. Quarterback Efficiency and Baker Mayfield's Playoff Trustworthiness (05:00 - 15:00)

A significant portion of the discussion centers on quarterback performance, specifically evaluating Baker Mayfield's reliability during the fantasy playoffs.

Key Points:

• Pass Attempts: Mayfield's recent spike in pass attempts (30, 33, and 29 in his last three games) raises concerns about sustainability and efficiency.
• Supporting Cast: The absence of key receivers like Godwin and Mike Evans impacts Mayfield's effectiveness.
• Efficiency Metrics: Mayfield ranks around QB15 in yards per attempt, indicating potential struggles in maintaining high performance.

Notable Quotes:

• Adam (05:38): "Our first big topic comes from Vinnie Knaps. Can we trust Baker Mayfield in the fantasy playoffs?"
• Jamie (05:26): "This year, Daniel Jones has two completions. Surprised you don't remember them."
• Jamie (51:49): "I cannot trust Baker Mayfield in the fantasy playoffs."

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3. Backup Running Backs Amidst Injuries (15:00 - 25:00)

The team examines how injuries to primary running backs like Aiden O'Connell affect the fantasy landscape, spotlighting the increased opportunities and potential risks associated with backup RBs such as Jacoby Myers, Brock Bowers, and Sincere McCormick.

Key Points:

• Increased Usage: With O'Connell sidelined, backups receive more snaps, enhancing their fantasy value.
• Risk Assessment: Evaluating whether these backups can consistently produce without the presence of their injured counterparts.
• Strategic Drop-Picks: Discussion on which fringe starters can be safely dropped for their handcuffs.

Notable Quotes:

• Adam (54:12): "How does Aiden O'Connell's injury affect the fantasy playoff outlooks for Jacoby Myers, Brock Bowers, and Sincere McCormick?"
• Heath (62:02): "Definitely, like, O'Connell was providing like real juice for the offense with the air yards..."

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4. Advanced Metrics and Player Performance Analysis (25:00 - 45:00)

Delving into advanced statistics, the analysts evaluate players beyond traditional stats to uncover hidden gems and assess potential pitfalls.

Key Discussions:

• DeAndre Hopkins: Despite a lower route participation rate since week nine, Hopkins remains a valuable asset due to his end-zone targets.
• Amari Cooper: Exhibits high target rates and air yards, positioning him as a high-reward but inconsistent option.
• Jordan Addison: A surge in target rates suggests increased reliability, making him a critical player for playoff pushes.
• Rookies Zach Charbonnet & Malik Neighbors: Stellar advanced metrics indicate high upside, with Charbonnet demonstrating exceptional processing and agility.

Notable Quotes:

• Adam (12:12): "He’s the Mark Andrews of receivers."
• Heath (34:21): "That's really tough. That's a good segue here. I want to talk about Puka Nakua and then we'll end that discussion with a Malik Neighbors note."

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5. Injury Updates and Their Fantasy Implications (45:00 - 55:00)

Comprehensive updates on player injuries provide managers with crucial information to adjust their lineups accordingly.

Key Points:

• Jonathan Brooks: A stat correction initially penalized Team A but was later reversed, sparking discussions on league integrity.
• Tyrone Tracy & Giants' RB Situation: Tracy's performance against tough defenses raises questions about his reliability in high-stakes weeks.

Notable Quotes:

• Adam (74:07): "Team A gets the win."
• Jamie (74:09): "I would make the change as commissioner."

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6. Fantasy Cops and League Disputes (55:00 - 77:17)

In the Fantasy Cops segment, the team addresses listener-submitted disputes and questions, providing fair and authoritative resolutions.

Key Discussions:

• Stat Correction Dispute: Resolution on whether to adjust game scores based on corrected stats, emphasizing fairness and league rules.
• Collusion Concerns: Debating whether strategic play-calling to manipulate playoff positions compromises league integrity.

Notable Quotes:

• Jamie (74:09): "I would make the change as commissioner."
• Adam (72:03): "If your league doesn't have a rule about it, then I don't know what you do. You need to address that. But you can't do it after the fact."

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7. Commercials and Advertisements (Throughout)

As per the episode's structure, advertisements and non-content sections are skipped to maintain focus on the core discussions.

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8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts (77:17 - End)

The episode wraps up with the hosts sharing lighter moments and teasing future content, reinforcing the community aspect of the Fantasy Football Today podcast.

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Key Takeaways:

• Evaluate Beyond Traditional Stats: Incorporating advanced metrics can unearth undervalued players and inform smarter lineup decisions.

• Adapt to Injury Impacts: Understanding how injuries affect player roles and team dynamics is crucial for maintaining competitive fantasy teams.

• Maintain League Integrity: Clear rules and fair dispute resolutions ensure a healthy and enjoyable fantasy league environment.

• Strategic Flexibility: Being open to adjusting strategies based on player performance trends and matchup analyses can provide a competitive edge in playoff weeks.

This episode provides a treasure trove of insights, making it invaluable for fantasy managers aiming to fine-tune their strategies and secure a championship run.

Transcript

[Adam]

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[Dave]

Hey everyone. I want to share a little about our experience hosting on Airbnb. We decided to give it a try as a way to earn some extra income and it's honestly been a great decision. The process was super easy to get started and the flexibility is amazing. We can choose when we want to host, which works around our schedules. One of the best parts about hosting is getting to share our favorite local spots with the guests. Whether it's top restaurants, beautiful beaches, or the best golf courses in town, it's so rewarding when guests enjoy the same places as we do. Hosting has not only helped us earn extra income, but it's allowed us to make the most of our space. If you've got extra space or travel often, hosting might be a great fit for you. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how [e-mail] host this is.

[Jamie]

Fantasy football today from CBS Sports.

[Adam]

What a play. Can you believe this?

[Heath]

No, I can't.

[Adam]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is going to go the distance. Now here's some cover combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. This is beyond the box score. Welcome everybody, to fantasy football today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook. Born in Vegas, maybe your season got off to a slow start, but hopefully you turned the beat around and made it to your fantasy playoffs. Yes. One of us, I won't say who. One of us was just singing turn the beat around during the mic check and he's in a great. This person, this mystery person is in a great mood today. So that's very much looking forward to teasing him about something. And we are going to deputize Jacob Gibbs. Deputy Jacob Gibbs is here because the fantasy cops are going to be making an appearance on today's show. Jacob's done it before, but we'll give him a badge today. What's up, Jacob?

[Heath]

Hey. Hey. Another well deserved win for the Chiefs. Here we are.

[Jamie]

Do you think Jacob will be a good cop or bad cop? Before you get to any fantasy cops, what's your guess, Adam?

[Adam]

An absolutely ruthless, rip your throat out cop? That's.

[Jamie]

I think so. Yeah, I think so. I agree with that take.

[Adam]

All right, I have a trivia question for you guys. Three quarterbacks that you know qual passer rating, qualified quarterbacks, not guys who have done five passes. Three quarterbacks have not completed a pass of 30 or more air yards this season. One of them is out for the season. Two of them are in the NFC South. Who are they? And you only have one guess. You can collaborate.

[Jamie]

Jones is not one of them.

[Adam]

If you'd like, you can collaborate.

[Jamie]

I start with Daniel Jones.

[Adam]

Well, is this your final guess?

[Jamie]

I don't since it's just a starting guess because I'm confused and I don't remember when he would.

[Adam]

He would qualify. He would qualify.

[Heath]

One of them, it's got to be Kirk, but I have no idea who.

[Jamie]

The other one is. So it's three quarterbacks. One's out for the season. Two are in the NFC South. So starting with Daniel Jones. Is that correct?

[Adam]

I'm not telling. You have one guess. You can talk it out with Jacob.

[Jamie]

Guess all three at once.

[Adam]

So yes, yes, you always set up.

[Jamie]

The hardest, weirdest games and stipulations for your games. But I'm gonna say Daniel Jones is my. I'm gonna make a three person guess. Daniel Jones and I have two NFC Souths. Definitely not hitting Bryce. I feel like he's done it.

[Heath]

It's Kirk Cousins.

[Jamie]

Kirk probably hasn't done it. Yeah, no, it's some. Some of those Mooney shots. I feel like Baker then. No, no. Maybe.

[Heath]

Maybe it's not their car like we've seen.

[Jamie]

It's definitely not Derek Carr. Definitely not.

[Adam]

All right, you have five seconds.

[Jamie]

All right, final guess.

[Adam]

Final guess.

[Jamie]

Baker, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield and Kirk Cousins.

[Adam]

Okay, you got one out of three. You got one out of three. Baker Mayfield, who is someone we're going to be talking about in our four big topics, is one of three quarterbacks.

[Jamie]

This year, Daniel Jones.

[Adam]

Daniel Jones has two completions. Surprised you don't remember them. They were to Darius Slayton against Baker and Darius Slayton against Seattle, of course.

[Jamie]

Oh, that Seattle ball definitely traveled 30 plus. Yeah, that was a bad.

[Adam]

So anyway, it's Baker Mayfield. Bryce Young has not completed a pass of 30 or more air yards. And Desean Watson has not completed a pass of 30 more air yards. So that checks out. But yeah, we. You know, one of our big topics today is do we trust Baker Mayfield in the fantasy playoffs? So of course we've got a lot of stuff, stats and whatnot for you on Baker Mayfield. Also, we'll talk about backfields that have been affected by injuries like the jets and the seahawks and the 49ers. We'll talk about players you could drop for your handcuff at this time of year. And how does Aiden oconnell's injury affect the fantasy playoff outlooks for Jacoby Myers, Brock Bowers and Sincere McCormick. Before we do that, though, Kansas City 19, Doink and in and the Chargers 17. I love this season. I think we've got a lot of Super Bowl. No, I think we've got a lot of super bowl contenders who have some flaws. No perfect teams. Everyone's beatable, including the Chiefs. And they'll be better when they get Butker back, obviously, but he made all his kicks.

[Heath]

But.

[Adam]

But anyway, it was a fun game. Jacob, what are your fantasy takeaways?

[Heath]

Yeah, man, the Chiefs have been. They just keep finding hilarious ways to win. So, yeah, the. The Chargers lad McConkie's really, really good and really important for that team like we've talked about all year. So I'm being al. Made tangible difference. You could just feel it. I mean, the first half was abysmal offensively and the will this. It goes down as well. Josh Palmer, I thought had an okay game. He had a drop that was pretty brutal. But he was getting open and beating press coverage, which they needed somebody to do that. Quinn Johnson, man, he's. He's fast. That guy is very, very talented. That was cool to see him make a few plays. Didn't have much else from the Charger side of things. Did you guys have anything for them?

[Jamie]

My main takeaway was on the other side of the ball. Chargers. It's like this offense without McConkey is definitely taking a step back like you said. I just, I still think that they need a better deep threat. I like Palmer's ability to track at Tennessee, but I just don't think that he's timed it up like him and Herbert don't have good timing on those D pads. I think that's like the priority number one for them in the off season.

[Adam]

Did I call you Jamie Jacob?

[Heath]

No, I didn't notice. He did.

[Adam]

Someone said I did. What a compliment that would be. My takeaway for the Chargers is I don't trust their running backs and lab McConkey is a must start if he comes back. Josh Palmer and Quentin Johnson are definitely in the wide receiver three discussion because they have Tampa Bay next week. If McConkey is out. If McConkey is out. Disley also got injured in this game. Left with a shoulder injury. All right, so then what are our Chiefs takeaways? Is Patrick Mahomes had a. Had a bad fantasy game, but he has been sacked 13 times in his last three games. That is the most in any three game stretch of his career. That's in. That's incredible. He's had some, you know, pretty, pretty darn good pass protection in his career. But that's from the AP by the way, that stat.

[Jamie]

Now, DJ Humphrey is also potentially, you know.

[Adam]

Yeah. Injured since week eight. So their last seven games, the Chiefs have the most pass attempts in the NFL. That could change tonight. Dallas could pass them. They have also run the most plays in the NFL since week eight. Since. Yeah, since week eight. They have the fourth highest pass rate in their last seven games. And even in the first half of this game, they went to the locker room with a 13 nothing lead. They had a 74% pass rate. So I still think Mahomes. I don't think you have to panic on Mahomes. I know he didn't have a great game, but he's still going to throw a lot, which is great. What other takeaways do you guys have for the Chiefs?

[Heath]

Chiefs are just a really weird team. They had six different wide receivers or tight ends with a route rate over 40%. So it was a big game for DeAndre Hopkins. But we. His role isn't changing all that much. But when he's out there, he's really important. He had the highest first retarget rate on the Chiefs at 32%. Travis Kelsey's only 16. I thought it was another sort of encouraging, like, low key, encouraging game for Xavier Worthy. Like, finally they connected on a short crosser. I feel like we literally been waiting for that all year, but the timing just like hasn't been there. And they did that. He avoided another tackle in this game, so there's some little signs for him that are encouraging. And then the main takeaway for me was Isaiah Pacheco.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Saw his role increase. He had a 70 RB rush share in this game. In week one, it was 88, 73. The next week, week two. So he's getting back close to that kind of a role. He ran 13 routes, 31 route rate for him. So like he's. He's getting back into that range.

[Jamie]

Yeah, he had 10.8% of the target share too. So clearly there's like a, you know, motivated effort to get him going. But I'll say this, like, his snap share was 46%. Again, these are all like higher numbers. But week 15, they've got a matchup coming up against Kareem Hunt's former team, the Browns. Hunt, to me, looked particularly good on that screen pass that he caught like mid midway through. I don't think that they're gonna phase Hunt out of this offense. Like, I think that the idea that Pacheco will get back to the role that he had earlier in the season, which was really good for fantasy. It's probably, to me, lost. I don't really see any reason why they would do it at this point. So. Yeah, like, that role, didn't they kind.

[Adam]

Of do it last night? He had 14 carries. Five.

[Jamie]

Yeah, but if you look at just the overall, like, snaps and who was on the field, he had 46. You think that that says everything. I mean, he hit a 56 rush share and 46 snap share. Those aren't the numbers that it was.

[Heath]

70, 70 rush hour. If you look into running backs, I don't think, okay, home scrambles and stuff like that really matters.

[Adam]

No, look, you're not wrong, right? The snap count's not great. But I do sort of think he took over the backfield yesterday. You know, it was a pretty even split in the first game, remember, like.

[Jamie]

Earlier in the year, it was just. Basically just Pacheco.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

88, 88%. Week one, which is like, there's only a few. There's only a handful.

[Jamie]

That was what I was talking about. That was what got us excited about him as like a top five guy.

[Adam]

Okay. Yeah, I agree. Yeah. He won't be back to that if he's 75% of the running back carries, though. I think he's a top 20 guy.

[Heath]

Yep.

[Adam]

For sure.

[Heath]

You can use him. And the Chiefs, he. The Chiefs need something, man. The Chiefs need some life on offense. They get so stagnant looking.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And it's like, clearly this is the guy who brings energy to the offense right now. This is the guy who can get explosive plays. And I think they're gonna be featuring him by the time we get close to the playoffs.

[Adam]

But can we talk about DeAndre Hopkins as he's fascinating to me. His. His route participation rate is usually around 66%. He usually participates in two thirds of the routes. So I just looked at, let's see, the last. Since week nine. Okay. So that's when he. I think he came over in Week 8. Barely played, started playing more in Week 9. Since Week 9, DeAndre Hopkins is 24th in receiving yards among wide receivers. But if you look at the top 37 wide receivers in yards, he has by far the lowest route participation rate. So, like, it's good. It's probably, you know, is doing well on a per route basis. He's also getting a lot of end zone targets. He's crushing it in that regard. He's become what we thought Travis Kelsey would be. Basically, he's the end zone, green zone guy now for.

[Heath]

For Mahomes, but he's the Mark Andrews of receivers.

[Adam]

Yeah, but he. Right, he doesn't. He's not on the field that much. So he is defying fantasy logic. And let's see, he was started in only 50% of leagues, but it's two straight games with nine targets for DeAndre Hopkins. So I think he's kind of interesting. I still feel like he needs to score to have a good game. And if you buy into the red zone and green zone end zone targets, then maybe he's likely to score. I remember he was wide open in the end zone two weeks ago and Mahomes threw it over his head. But what's your confidence level in DeAndre Hopkins in the fantasy playoffs at Cleveland, Houston, at Pittsburgh?

[Heath]

Yeah, I mean, you hope that you wouldn't necessarily need to start him, but I do think he can have a game like this at any, at any given moment. I think he's behind Pacheco, the second most important player in the offense right now, which sounds crazy to say when Travis Kelsey exists, but that's kind of where I'm at. Just watching the Chiefs lately.

[Jamie]

I agree with Jacob's assessment on the offense and how that's rolling out. I do think that's a little bit of a tricky schedule, though, specifically with Houston and Pittsburgh, where I could see really bad, like poor performances in both those games.

[Adam]

No Houston's. I mean, in theory, Houston could put Derek Stingley on Hopkins.

[Jamie]

That's what I'm thinking. Yeah, they could just put stigma on him. I don't see why they wouldn't.

[Adam]

Their past defense has been terrible. It's been a great matchup. Pittsburgh, not so much. But next week, Cleveland's past defense is horrid.

[Jamie]

Cleveland will be good. I just have a weird feeling they'll put Stingley on him.

[Adam]

All right, we've got three shows on CBS Sports Network this week. Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday at 1pm Eastern. Please join us on CBS Sports Network. You can catch Those [e-mail] fantasy football today after the fact, if you miss them. But Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, 1 to 2pm Eastern. We're on TV, baby. So check us out. Here are your news and notes. So we are expecting long term absences. Maybe it's premature to say that, but wouldn't be surprised for Derek Carr and Aiden O'Connell.

[Jamie]

Yep.

[Adam]

And Drew Locke is having an MRI today but he will remain the starter if he's healthy for the Giants. They have Baltimore this week. We'll talk about the Raiders, One of our big topics a little bit later. Running back news. Breece hall has a chance to play this week, so we all did a lot of Braylon Allen, Isaiah Davis research today and might be completely useless. Isaac Orndo has a foot injury and a Thursday game so he didn't sound too concerned. I think a lot of times players don't sound too concerned, but we'll see. We'll hopefully we'll find out soon what the deal is with Garendo, but they have a Thursday game against the Rams. That's a quick turnaround. Jonathan Brooks left in the first quarter. Bucky Irving, his back tightened up on him and top bowls just said we don't know yet about his availability. Demarcus Robinson, it's the only wide receiver. Note I oh, George Pickens. George Pickens has a grade 2 hamstring. Hamstring strain so it could be, I don't know, it could be multiple weeks for Pickens. We'll see. And DeMarcus Robinson has an AC sprain. And again a Thursday game for DeMarcus Robinson. It's Rams 49ers Will Disley shoulder injury. Tyler Higby could be back this week for the Rams. On the offensive line you had Morgan Moses right tackle for the jets. You had D.J. humphries offensive tackle for the Chiefs, Toronto Armstead left tackle for the Dolphins and two starting interior offensive linemen for the Giants all left with injuries. We know at least one of those Giants lineman is going to be out in this upcoming game. Defensively, Sauce Gardner could play this week. Tampa Bay lost safety Antoine Winfield a multi week absence for him with an ankle sprain. Carolina cornerback J.C. horn left with a groin injury and let's move on. Let's get to oh oh, this question from Johnny Airport when will the next you put the I'm assuming you put this up.

[Jamie]

Yes I did.

[Adam]

When will the next Dan vs Adam athletic challenge happen and what sport it will be summer of 2025? It will be tennis. It will be much closer than it was in summer of 2024.

[Jamie]

It will not be much closer. I'm going for O and O this time and I expect to get it despite not playing most likely at all until that point. Now with that said, I don't know if I'll even be around for the summer of 2025 after putting on my tinfoil hat last night and finally seeing drones that have been flying around New Jersey. I live in Morristown. This is where they've been like mostly showing up. It's kind of crazy. Not even joking really. Very weird. It was flying really low, like barely over the trees. So that was a weird thing to see one day. I hope they figure out soon what the hell's going on over there so we can play that tennis match this summer.

[Adam]

That would be great. And it also would be great if everybody get a chance go sign up on the BetMGM app. You know, first of all, you'll be supporting our show, which would be awesome. But if you if you want to sign up on the BetMGM app, use the bonus code Fantasy and get up to a 1500 dollar first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. So here's how it works. Just download the BetMGM app and sign up using the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to $1,500 in bonus bets. If your bet loses, just make sure you use the bonus code Fantasy when you sign up, we'll take a break and come back with advanced stats snap counts. Wait till you hear about Amari Cooper snap counts and his target per out run rate in week four.

[Jamie]

About his air yards.

[Adam]

I didn't see his air yards. Looking forward to hearing about that. All right, well, we'll come right back. We'll be after this. Listen, I don't care if your fantasy teams won. If your favorite team beat its arch rival, your football Sunday isn't going to be good enough if you don't nail the food aspect of it. If you're not using Hellman's Real Mayonnaise, what are you doing? Come on. Hellman's Real Mayonnaise is a rich, creamy mayonnaise made with real simple ingredients. Hellman's can be used to bring out the best rich, creamy, delicious flavor in a variety of dishes, dips, sandwiches, deviled eggs, sauces, salads, and more. Look, if you're having people over to watch the game or you just want to have good food by yourself, consider this little tip from me. My wife makes the best buffalo chicken dip. The key ingredient? Hellman's Mayonnaise. It brings it to another level. It's probably my favorite snack on game day. So let me finish by imploring you to step up your mayonnaise game with a series of puns. Mayo game day be delicious. Mayo dip be creamy. And your fantasy team be dreamy. And how about this for a fantasy team name Drake Mayo. You get the point. You can purchase Hellman's at your local Walmart, Kroger or grocery store and use it to add extra deliciousness and creamy flavor to your game day dishes this football season.

[Jacob]

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[Jamie]

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[Adam]

We are back. Here are the advanced stats courtesy of Jacob Gibbs or Jamie Gibbs as I call him.

[Heath]

All right. Yeah, let's talk about Amari Cooper. So his route rate didn't really change. 63 route rate in week 14. He only ran one more route than Curtis Samuel but they were like hyper, hyper focused on getting him the ball. 44 First Read Target Rate for Amari in this game. That's super, super high. Most air yards of any player in any game this season. 254 air yards. That was the most since Amari Cooper had I think 280 last year with Joe Flacco in week 16. So that is kind of what he does. Only half of those were catchable. It was Josh Allen was a little bit all over the place. Obviously a great game for him overall but he can be erratic throwing down the field. So I don't know if I necessarily trust that this role is going to turn into production in a huge way on a week to week basis. Especially if Amare doesn't become like a full time player. But there's definitely upside.

[Adam]

Yeah, it's a shame it's, you know, happening so late in the season but again I can't get over the 53% SNAP share. Yeah, it's but I've been saying the same thing about Hopkins, right? They got these guys don't play that much. Cooper 53.53% snapshare 53.8 target per out run rate led all wide receivers But I don't think I can throw them in my lineup next week. They have Detroit. Right. Which could be amazing. Yeah.

[Jamie]

That would be the reason to throw him in the lineup, because you need that game script like he got this week with.

[Heath]

I would definitely. Yeah. Want him in that one. There's massive upside in that.

[Adam]

Even if I told you right now he were going to play 53 of the snaps next week, would you.

[Jamie]

Would you start in that game script? Yes, probably.

[Heath]

Top 30 receiver at least. But there's the upside for him to have, like, 40 points in that. In that spot.

[Adam]

All right, go ahead, Jacob. What else you got?

[Heath]

Let's talk about Jordan Addison. Talking about upside. Men, the crazy game here. The Atlanta Falcons are. Are just abysmal in the secondary right now. But also, there were some really encouraging signs for Addison from an underlying volume standpoint, and we shouldn't just ignore those because the matchup, first three targets, it was by far the highest rate that we've ever seen for Addison, and he's been trending this way. It's not just this spike week here. He has more targets than Justin Jefferson over the past month, which is a shock. And then. And then if you look at first three targets, he has hit 30 of Minnesota's first three targets in four straight games. Prior to that, he had only hit the 31st 3 target threshold twice in his first 24 career games. So this is definitely like, completely different to see him doing this consistently and that rate spiked to 53 this week. So really interesting stuff from Addison. They're using him more in motion as a priest in that motion guy. He had three targets as a priest in that motion, man. Of this game. They designed some screens to him this week, which I don't. I don't watch the Vikings enough to know if that is typical, but I. I just, when I watched, it felt like there was a concentrated effort to get him the ball and then a lot.

[Adam]

Jacob.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Someone says, all right, Jacob, I'm starting Addison over AJ Brown.

[Heath]

Yeah. People are so silly with the AJB stuff, and I get it. It's been frustrating, but, man, we got. I got into it. Me and Matt Harmon got into, like, a real life discussion about this with people, and everybody was acting like A.J. brown's not playing well. It's like, no, no.

[Adam]

But can you justify starting Addison over A.J. brown when the Eagles are throwing 21 times a game?

[Heath]

Sure. Yeah. I mean, you do whatever you want. That. That. That makes some sense, I guess. I personally would still want to start ajb, but.

[Adam]

Oh, dude, listen, this AJ Brown, we got the squeaky wheel. He's pissed off where he's going off this week.

[Heath]

Yeah, I think so.

[Jamie]

I think it's the app. I think you can't justify starting Devonte Smith this week. I think he's gonna have a horrible week. Unfortunately, I have him in one team and I'm at a bad point where I probably have to start him, but like I expect nothing out of him this next week.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And so the last thing I wanted to bring up on Addison is just that this. The targets are unlike anything we've seen. So he has a 27 target per route run rate over the past month. Before that, his target per hour run rate on the year was 16. Last year it was 18. And so I'm curious if you guys think that this is just a blip on the radar, just a kind of random four game thing. It's backed of course by the first three targets. Or do you think he can be this kind of a guy? Not 27, that's way too high for him with the role that he plays, but a 20 plus percent kind of guy.

[Jamie]

So I want to step in by saying I think he can be. And I'll tell you why. There's a few reasons, a combination of two things. One, I was looking at a stat today that was put on Twitter by. I forgot. I'm forgetting who now. Sorry for not having the credit, but Sam Darnold's top three in the NFL and big time throw rate and big time throws and he's up there with the likes of Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. Like that's the type of verticality the Vikings have had in their offense this year that they didn't quite frankly have last year with Cousins or really at any point prior. And why? That's one reason. So I think Darnold has elevated the big play of that offense, but also because if you're an opposing team and I saw this all last year and I haven't watched the tape to know if this is definitely happening, I could probably look into some advanced data or you may have it, Jacob, but you're an opposing team, you're taking away Justin Jefferson with cloud coverage, you're taking away Justin Jefferson with different, you know, options. And then if you're Sam Darnold and you're Kevin OConnell, your first read is going to go to Addison because he's a rat. He can win one on ones. He was a great prospect coming out of USC and pit and he was great in one on One combinations when he got one on one man coverage both at pit and at usc. So if you're looking at this thing pre snap and you're seeing that the defense is going to shift cloud cover to Jefferson and you have a one on one on the other side with Addison, why not go there, right? Like, why not take that option? And I think that's what we're seeing.

[Adam]

Yeah, I think what's kind of strange to me is that they don't throw that much and he's still doing this right there. About 31 pass attempts per game in the last four weeks and probably for the season a little bit less than that. And then. And you've got Justin Jefferson and you've got T.J. hawkinson. That's the thing. Hawkinson really hasn't done much. So as long as Hawkinson's not becoming a bigger factor, I think Addison is clearly the number two guy, if not the number one. I'm not saying we'd ever rank him ahead of Justin Jefferson, but you just heard from Jacob. He has more targets, would you say last four games more targets than Jefferson.

[Heath]

And way more fantasy points and more.

[Jamie]

First read targets too. That's like.

[Adam]

So honestly, I went into this week thinking about Jordan Addison. Like, I. I'm not going to be excited to start Jordan Addison, but I think that may have changed and I don't want to put too much into it because it is Atlanta, but there's a lot of encouraging stuff, including all the things you just said. Just. He really was having a pretty nothing season until the last three weeks. And I have trouble with players like that. Like, I had trouble with Keenan Allen this week. I was talking to Dave off the air. I was like, man, Keenan Allen, like, I know I'm gonna start him in two leagues. I think he's just gonna burn me. And he did. And he did. But that was really more Caleb Williams burning me than Keenan Allen. Like, if Caleb Williamson got out and thrown for 250 and Keenan Allen had done nothing, then fine, but. So I trust Sam Darnold more than I trust Caleb Williams. And therefore.

[Jamie]

And that offense, let's. Let's say in that offense.

[Adam]

Yeah, whatever. Right. Whatever it is. I think, therefore, I think I tr. I trust Jordan Addison a decent amount right now. More than Amari Cooper.

[Heath]

Dan, to your point, Dan, I'm curious how you would go about quantifying what you're describing with the cloud coverages and extra attention. Because it's something I thought about and I would like to do, but I don't necessarily know how like Jamar Chase and how much different his production has been when T. Higgins is in and out is what really got me thinking about it. But it's clear with Jefferson and Addison that there's something there that's really changing things. But I don't know how to go about like finding out like just like quantifying it with data.

[Jamie]

Probably best for us to kind of explore in the off season. We have more time.

[Heath]

Sorry. The best answer I have is like Matt Harmon has. He goes in charts like how often they've been double teamed and stuff like that. And it feels like that's where we're at is like you would have to manually like watch all the routes and just like chart it.

[Jamie]

Yeah, if. I think you probably would have to. Especially because there's going to be like, even if you look at the charting on some sites, there's going to be differences in like pre and post snap rotations and where these. These DBs end up on the field. Like how often is. Is a safety on the hash that Jeffers. Stuff like that. So probably have to watch every snap, which I doubt we're gonna have time to do.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Good.

[Adam]

Jamar chase is averaging 22.7 points per game this year. I don't know what the splits are with and without T. Higgins, but I think one of his huge games was without Higgins. In his career, he has not been better just from a fantasy points per game standpoint. He has not been better with Higgins like going into 2024. The note I have from my 2024 wide receiver preview that Jamar Chase had not yet averaged 20 PPR fantasy points per game with a healthy Joe Burrow and a healthy T. Higgins, he come close. But I think this year we're seeing this efficiency spike with Higgins on the field. But I actually think it's kind of weird maybe look, maybe efficiency if you're just looking at like yards per route run, yards per catch, maybe it doesn't account for touchdowns, catches and what all goes into fantasy points. But from a fantasy perspective, one of the things that I thought held Jamar Chase back from being wide receiver one was T. Higgins. And this year he might Finish Wide Receiver 1. He is currently Wide Receiver 1, even though Higgins has missed some time, but has been very good.

[Heath]

Yeah, I would guess that his yards per target are up even before this year with Higgins on the field, but he definitely gets targeted less with Higgins on the field.

[Adam]

Okay, so that, that could be it. It could just be a volume.

[Jamie]

Some of it is scheme Too. Like, if you look at it, last year, the Cowboys did an excellent job moving Lamb in different spots around, especially specifically in the slot. And that allowed him, despite not having like a good, great number wide receiver two around him, to be that dominant target guy and that dominant wide receiver. 1. Some of these other schemes are just happy to have like a Jefferson or something like that playing boundary for most of the game.

[Adam]

All right, go. Let's get back to it. Go ahead, sir. Let's keep.

[Heath]

Let's keep it rolling here. On the Jordan Edison note, I mentioned that, like, I didn't feel like this 27 target per round rate is sustainable for him because of the role that he plays. When I said that, what I mean is the depth at which these targets are coming. His average depth of target during this span over the past month when he has that 27 rate is 12.6 yards down the field. Wow. So I've got 12 guys here that are over 27% in this group. The only one with a higher ADOT is Brian Thomas. Addison's is even higher than like Mike Evans, for instance.

[Adam]

This is ADOT or route depth.

[Heath]

A dot. Did I say Robert?

[Adam]

No, no.

[Heath]

Depth of target is 12.6 yards for him. Higher than Mike Evans during that span, higher than Nico Collins. And that's pretty unusual to get such a high target rate while drawing targets so deep down the field and that I just want to use as a segue to Brian Thomas and what he's doing and just how high the upside is for him if the target rates are even a little bit sustainable long term. Over the past month, BTJ has a 28.4 target per hour run rate. His ADOT is 14.5 yards. So that's way higher than Addison's or anyone else in this range. That's nuts. That. That's like it. We just. It's like, like Justin Jefferson's target per Robin rate is generally around 26 or 27 because he's running such deep routes. And so like, obviously we're seeing a depleted Jaguars pass catching unit here, but they still have Evan Ingram, you know, like, they still have some guys who can get targets. And we're seeing things funnel through BTJ. On that note, he had the highest first retarget rate that he's ever had. It was above 40 in the second half of the Jaguars game. His first retarget rate was 70%. So we saw them just like completely funnel everything through him. And it worked. He caught, I think, almost all of those targets. And that to me, it's just like this. These are. These are crazy signals like that a player can do this can be winning down the field consistently drawing targets, being like everything funneled through him. The defense knows everything is going to him and he just keeps winning. I push him as high as you want in Dynasty rankings, like easily top eight. I think you could push him as high as you want.

[Jamie]

Let's go.

[Adam]

All right. We've heard about Adam.

[Jamie]

Put him ahead of. Of Marvin Harrison Jr.

[Heath]

Yes.

[Jamie]

Wow. You have met. I. I mean not even close to. But I don't want to say not even close. But I do too. What about Neighbors?

[Heath]

That's really tough. That's a good segue here. I want to talk about Puka Nakua and then we'll end that discussion with a Malik neighbor's note. So Pukinakua had the highest rookie target per route run rate that we've seen during the time that I have the data available, which is 2013. Till now it was 28. Malik Neighbors currently has a 29.6 target per hour rate. It's really flown under the radar because it's just so bad in New York. But he's doing stuff that we've never seen in terms of demanding targets at such a young age, like well above even Puka's rate. And so that's extremely bullish for him long term. I think you have to have him above BTJ because he has that kind of like Odell Beckham, like win everywhere kind of upside Jamar Chase, I guess I should say, like Odo Beckham. People don't think of it like he was that good early on. That's kind of where it's. We're at with Neighbors. Whereas BTJ it. I brought this up with BJ a lot. For him to continue to get these targets as such a downfield role is like really unlikely. There haven't really been hardly any people who do that. Josh Gordon is a guy who I've mentioned as a comparison. Like that's. There's just really not any people who do that. But back to Puka. 28 last year was a historic number for a rookie. This year that target perm rate is up to 37, which would be the highest of any player in any season ever during the time I have the data.

[Adam]

Wow.

[Heath]

Tyree kills last year was 36.6%. There's only been a handful of guys above like 34. Puka. It's his first down per route. Renate is also the highest of any player with 200 or more routes. We'll see where he ends up. But like, talk about push a guy as high as you want. You can push him as high as you want. He's, he's really doing unprecedented stuff and.

[Jamie]

I think he's like demanding those targets. It's not necessarily just being schemed to him.

[Heath]

Yeah, for sure. Like they're scheming stuff to cup, but Puka is, they are using Puka and Priest that motion more. But yeah, he's just, he's, he is seriously just like winning everywhere. Everything. Like Matt Harmon has talked about how much better he looks at the catch point and I think you see that when you watch them. He agreed you can't, you can't cover him. You literally, you have to get pressure on Matthew Stafford or you lose. Okay, Tyrone Tracy, let's talk about our boy. Really, really exciting usage notes. Not so exciting from an efficiency standpoint, but again, it's the Giants, so, you know, neighbors. Tracy, I think what we're really looking for is the framework here and maybe it could turn into more down the line. 83 snap Rate 89 RB rush Share that's the percentage of the total backfield carries. 73% Route Rate 21 target Share all of those were career highs. That's clearly RB1 stuff. The most exciting thing is the receiving. We've been waiting for that. We saw six targets in the first half, 10 overall. And of course there's a huge Drew Lock day in terms of total volume. But still, 21 target share. A running back is really, really good. Did you have any thoughts on Tracy? I haven't watched the Giants game.

[Jamie]

I mean. Yeah, go ahead. Adam looks like.

[Adam]

I thought he looked horrible. Actually. That was the worst. I thought it was the worst I've seen Tyrone Tracy.

[Heath]

Look, I was worried.

[Adam]

I don't want to start him in anything other than a full PPR league against the Ravens this upcoming week with probably two interior offensive linemen out and the Ravens with that ferocious run defense, it doesn't really matter how he looks if he's going to get this many touches and he's clearly their goal line back unless he has an awful matchup, which he does. So I think in general he's a start. I think I'd be very cautious in the first game, the first game of the playoffs here with the Ravens coming to town. But Dan's probably watched the All 22 by now, so he's a much better feel for how Tyrone Tracy looked. I just thought like, oh man, he could have slipped that tackle. Usually he does. He didn't he didn't do it. Like, he just. And he faced the worst run defense in football, by the way.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

So it was just kind of an off day for him. But what'd you think, Dan?

[Jamie]

No, I think you're spot on with this. From what I seen now, I don't put all the blame on Tracy. I think the Giants offensive line had its worst day run blocking in a long time. And generally speaking, the Giants run game has been significantly worse with Drew Lock versus DeVito and Jones. Best with Jones, but at least DeVito they ran like Zone Reed with so which helped a lot for the run game and just helped get things going. This is more of just a traditional offense with Drew Lock and now with two more interior offensive line injuries, multiple drops from Tyrone Tracy in this game. The usage, though, was great because it's like as long as he doesn't fumble, I think Brian Dable's at the point and Joe Shane's at the point where it's like just get these young guys snaps. Our season is over. So I don't think they'll go back to Singletary. But it's like. Well, I don't necessarily see the offense and the run game improving against Baltimore. I think it's basically touchdown or nothing right now with Trace. Touchdown and a lot of touches obviously in usage, but like efficiency, I don't expect to improve rest of season.

[Adam]

All right, Jacob. Okay.

[Heath]

Do you guys feel like he's worn down as the year's gone on? That's kind of how I felt.

[Jamie]

I. I don't actually feel that way. I think I agree with Adam. Like, there may be a few examples of what you're. You're referencing. Adam and the drops are another whole issue that kind of has happened earlier, gave us hints that it might be a problem, which is surprising as a former receiver. But I feel like a lot of this was just plays blown dead by the. By the. By the blocking. And the Giants didn't run a lot like their pat. They passed way over expectation, almost three to one pass to run ratio, which is kind of crazy given like the game they were in and just not a great look for Brian Dable as a play caller. But I didn't personally feel like Tracy looked considerably worse or run down.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Adam]

I think both offensive lines really stunk in this game. And I believe I heard on the broadcast that this was the first time in like 10 weeks or something that the Saints had had their starting offensive line together. And given that, if that, I think that's true and given That, I mean they really, they just stunk up. It was, it was an ugly game, but this is as bad as the score. 14 11. Just an ugly game, but. All right. Sorry Jacob, we got. Yeah, go ahead. Why don't you finish up? Yeah.

[Heath]

So 66 route rate is what fantasy points data has Tracy's number at. I do trust their information a little bit more. They filter out like it plays where the guy wasn't involved as a rat runner necessarily like was a. It was a screen to somebody else and they weren't doing anything. The only two running backs above him were Chuba Hubbard at 78. It's just so sad about Brooks. Hopefully the news isn't that bad, but that was just gutting Devon HN at 73. I wanted to bring up HN because Remos or didn't play in this game and the role was awesome for hn. This is the first time a career high snap rate. First time in his career that he played over three fourths of the snaps for the Dolphins. So they're really like he can be a workhorse, I think, you know, like we haven't really seen them lean all the way into that, but I think they kind of are. And even still we saw Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle get way more involved here. So I'm going to talk about them for a little bit and just contextualize what we've seen with the Dolphins what we might see rest of season. Those two led the Dolphins in first read targets each Hill and waddle had a 34% first read target rate. Not only were those the highest rates in week 14, but there were two of the five highest single game rates posted by a Dolphin all year. So this offense used to be extremely concentrated on these two, but it's become much more balanced this year. We only have nine instances of a player posting a first retarget rate above 30 in a game all year for the Dolphins, which is unusual. That's unusually low for any time any team, but especially Mike McDaniels offenses. And so these were two of the highest games for any player in a Dolphins game all year. And it came consecutively. And I think it's, it's interesting because of the matchups. I, I brought this up like a month ago how zone heavy the matchups have been for Miami and that's led up a bit over the past month with one exception and that was Green Bay. And that was the game where we got really frustrated again about Tyreek and Waddle. The packers use zone 95 of the time in that game, which is really unusual that you see a team like literally not use any man coverage at all. And we saw a ton of Johnny and HN as a result. Only a combined 25. First free target for Tyreek and Waddle in that game today or Yesterday was at 68 combined.

[Adam]

So you're saying more man coverage means more wide receiver targets for the Dolphins?

[Heath]

Yes. Yeah. And they've faced a lot of zone heavy coverages, but over the past month it's been more man heavy coverages except for that packers game. And we've seen things even out a bit. So in last year, Tua had a 63 target rate to the wide receiver position. 63 of all of his targets went to wide receivers. This year it's at 48. Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson, the Raiders quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr are the only guys who are lower. 48 is really low. In the past five games, only four. Four of those past five games have been 50 or higher. Only one has been below 50. And so really it's affected by the, the early stuff and I think lately it's been normalized a bit, but we've still had these massive Johnny fantasy games. So we kind of have this stink in our mind about Waddle and Tyreek. And it's been frustrating, but it has been normalizing a little bit as they face more neutral defenses that don't use so much zone. And then to finish up the season, their opponents rank 14th, 15th and 27th in zone coverage use. So they're all average or even man heavy. In the case of the Browns, I think we might see it go back to running through these guys with HN and John who just being like awesome fail safe options that the first three targets don't work, which is kind of what we saw in this game. Is this just opium or do you. Can you buy into this?

[Jamie]

What do we got rest of season? I'm going to look it up right now. Adam, do you have it by any chance in front of you? Schedule, rest of season?

[Heath]

Niners, Browns and somebody else, Texans.

[Adam]

Okay, I can buy it because I, I think. Well the way I put it yesterday was. The way I see it is Tyree Kill is going to get his targets and Devon HN's going to get his targets. And then who's the third guy? Is it going to be a John who game? Is going to be a Waddle game? John New Smith has had going into this game against the Jets. 3 Great matchup against teams that stink against Tight ends. The jets are really good against tight ends. He had a great overtime but he had zero catches in regulation. So I wasn't surprised to see a little bit of aggression but I couldn't find a real answer for it. This is a much better answer for why the targets go to Waddle one week and John to another week. So I, I am going to buy this explanation. I think this is good. I don't know that it's going to come true. We don't. We can't accurately predict the future. But this to me is a better way to look at it than any way that I was going about it.

[Heath]

And I feel like Waddle has played phenomenally when he gets opportunities over the past month. He looks way different to me. Looks really, really explosive.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I'm with you on that and how he passes eye test wise. I watched a game a couple weeks ago with him look good running routes out there. What do we have? Like what's the as far as those teams go, how do they. I guess we'd have to take a look after the show but like how they match up and like how what kind of defense they use.

[Adam]

He said. So it's their 14th, 15th, 14th, 15th and 27th in their zone coverage rates which is good for Tyree Kill and Jalen Waddle. 1.

[Heath]

Yeah, we just need some neutral defenses. Not freaking 95 zone.

[Adam]

And I like that Tyreek Oak is gets so many end zone targets. That is his the end zone guy now I it almost feels like they they need to feed Tyreek Hill. They were so intentional about it in this game. So I have no issues starting Tyree Kill. I think even in a bad week he's going to get to 12 PPR points. Waddle, you know I have one league where I'm in the playoffs with I think I only have Waddle in one league and I'm in the playoffs. I mean I could look if anybody cares. He's definitely. I think I sat him this week. I sat him for Elijah Moore. I'm not gonna be doing that again.

[Heath]

But I survived in a few leagues with Waddle. I survived image of the playoffs which is quite the accomplishment.

[Adam]

Yeah. So I'm gonna have to start him over more. That's it. They're my number four wide receivers. I have Higgins, JSN and Devonte Adams. I like all of them better than Waddle but he'll be my flex. He'll be my on that low wide.

[Heath]

Receiver target rate group of quarterbacks. Isn't it crazy that Kyler Murray's in that list. Like all the other ones made sense to me. And then crazy to you because he's.

[Adam]

Got Harrison throw him.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Okay. To me, it's not crazy at all. Like watching that offense, like the way they're just running like basically just like tight end leak with McBride the whole game or like crossing routes with McBride and Murray can't see over the line. Like, I, I don't find that.

[Heath]

Well, his rate has never been like this. It's always been league average or slightly above. And then last year dropped way down and this year it's a little bit above last year.

[Jamie]

This year was the first year of the Petsic offense though.

[Heath]

And Trey McBride. Yeah, Trey McBride, you know, 14, 15, 12 targets over the past three weeks. Like he is a monster.

[Adam]

So I'm sorry to do this to you. I, I think we have to end this segment because we got to go to break and we'll try to save time for Fantasy Cops. We've gone a little longer than I expected, but we'll go to break, we'll do our four big topics, and then we'll do Fantasy Cops to end the show. And we'll be right back.

[Jamie]

Breaking news. Derek Carr done for the season.

[Adam]

Okay, thank you. And we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today.

[Dave]

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[Adam]

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[Jamie]

This was I didn't get a chance to watch the tape of this game, was watching the running back. I watched three running backs unfortunately ran out of time. But just thinking about what you, what you laid out the schedule and what. And how he's looked, I would say I cannot trust Baker Mayfield in the fantasy playoffs.

[Adam]

I. I trust him as like QB10ish.

[Jamie]

I think I'm a little behind on that. I'd say. I think more of like 12 to 15 range.

[Adam]

Okay. I don't know. He probably won't be 10 this week against the Chargers. He's actually got. Man, I have so many stats here, but The Buccaneers were seventh and pass rate in weeks one through nine. They are 27th and pass rate in their last four games. They're just running the ball effectively.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Adam]

I don't.

[Jamie]

That's a big issue there.

[Adam]

Yeah, it's a big issue, but like, I don't trust it as much if Bucky's out. I know Rashad White just had a great game against the Raiders, but I don't know that I. He's not that good. Right. So I think they. They're not throwing that much. Here's the thing. If they're going to throw low 30s or hit 29 pass attempts last week, his last four games, he has 30, 33, 29. So what's.

[Jamie]

What's changed? And I think what's changed is one, he doesn't have Godwin. That's obvious.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

And two, Mike Evans is not fully healthy.

[Adam]

You don't think so? I don't know if that's true.

[Jamie]

He said that last week. The first week he came back against the Giants, he's like, I'm running at like 60%.

[Adam]

Oh. But then I trust him even less. So he played great. Honestly, I watched this. I watched this tape. He. I thought he played great. Other than the two interceptions, which were bad, I thought he was awesome. And he is creating a lot of big plays over the last three weeks. None of them on deep balls. As I already mentioned, doesn't have a 30 yard yard completion all year, but like, guys were running wide open yesterday. Just. I love Liam Cohen and I love the Bucks offense, but Baker Mayfield has had a great year. He's something like QB5 overall. He's something like QB15 in yards per attempt.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Adam]

He built it so much on two things. One, pass attempts and two, hardly any rushing touchdowns.

[Jamie]

That's what I'm.

[Adam]

Yeah, both of those things are changing. So I don't fully trust him. Low end starter for me.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

All right, let's go to the next one from httv backfields that have gotten taken over or affected because of injuries. The Seahawks the jets, the Niners, the Chargers, et cetera. Jacob the let's just say the jets don't have Breeze Hall. Would you start either Braylon Allen or Isaiah Davis, who basically played the same, had almost the same exact snapshare touches against the Dolphins. They get the Jaguars. Great matchup next week.

[Heath]

Yeah, you could start him against the Jaguars. They're like when they're a monitor Stevenson tier because they're basically just splitting it right down the middle.

[Adam]

Right. And for that reason I would have to go with Ramandre over them because he doesn't really split.

[Heath]

But I feel like Antonio Gibson has been getting more involved. He's played really well lately and yeah.

[Adam]

Not in like a fifth. Not in like a 5050 though. Sure. All right, Seattle, we talked about this yesterday when nobody really thought that Charbonnet was going to take over when Ken Walker came back, which could be as early as week 15. Dan, how do you feel about it? You said you watched some Charbonnet tape this morning? Yeah.

[Jamie]

First just something quick on Isaiah Davis because I did watch his tape. He was at his best for sure. Like when they ran outside zone, which is good because the jets run almost all zone. Just three plays I charted for Isaiah Davis were man Scheme did a great job on his touchdown run of pressing to the outside, knowing where that cutback lane is, finding that cutback lane early by planting his foot exploding, then one more cutback inside to avoid the safety. Touchdown. I think he's a worse talent because there was no counter punch when the play was kind of blown up by the O line. D line like when the O line lost in D line got early penetration. I don't. I think he was the worst of all the talents as far as what I watched McCormick, him and Charbonnet. Just from a pure like, can you do anything outside of plant your foot and run outside zone. But I also think that while Allen is a much more talented running back, I don't know if he really does fit outside this type of scheme. Like he's better for man. Man scheme. He always has been. Was so at Wisconsin as well. So I think it will remain a split. I think you can start against the Jaguars. As for Charbonnet, he was my RB2 overall from a pure talent standpoint when he came out in that draft class, which was a hot take because Jameer Gibbs was in that class. Yeah. Stand by the take. And I'll tell you, despite how good Gibbs looks, because part of that take.

[Adam]

Was always, no, wait, no, don't do this. So Bijan. Bijan 1. Charbot A 2.

[Heath]

Gibbs, let him cook.

[Jamie]

Dan, stand by the tape.

[Adam]

Cooking himself right now. Yeah.

[Heath]

Let's hear it.

[Jamie]

I'll go down with the because part of the take was something we haven't seen.

[Adam]

You're on the Titanic, buddy. What? You're on the Titanic.

[Jamie]

Just so you know, I'm on the Titanic. Except for if you consider in within the take that Charbonnet can be a workhorse back and he can handle a workhorse role. That was one of my concerns with Jamir Gibbs. Would he be able to do that? We haven't seen that yet with the Lions. Maybe he can be. But as far as Charbonnet goes, he has literally the entire package as far as being a workhorse back. He may not be it for Seattle at any point. Who knows. But this is a player who five of his first six runs were man scheme, power gap counter. Two times they pulled. The guards thought that was awesome. That's how he dominated at UCLA when they were running power gap. He was so involved in the past game. I think part of that is because of the way that the Cardinals play defense and how Gannon calls a defense but look good in the past game. Look good prior in the Pass. Game 5 10, Quarter 2. If you want to track on NFL Game Pass fun run where Charbonnet kind of shows all his skill set, presses outside to set up the safety, number three, going that direction sharply cuts back, allowing that inside O line to climb to the second level right behind him. It's just elite level processing for a 15 yard gain. His touchdown run, the long one, the vision to cut back after you have two pullers going left, the patience to run behind the pullers. This is the things I like about Charbrand. This is something I learned early, maybe four or five years or no, at this point six years ago from Matt Walman, who I think is really good at breaking down film when it comes to running backs. Don't just look at size, speed and that combination and their like explosive athletic traits, like a Ken Walker type who's a great athlete. Look for the nuances of playing the running back position. He pointed this out with Nick Chubb a lot. And I think Charbonnet is really good at the nuances of playing the running back position, setting up the blockers, processing, understanding the pace and the tempo of runs. And I see that when I watch his tape and I thought he looked really good in this game.

[Adam]

Yeah, but this is like. But he doesn't. He does not make explosive plays except for this game. This was the best game of his career. He had the longest run of his career. He had a first. He had two of his four longest runs of his career. And he hasn't had that much work, but okay. You like him. I think you know.

[Heath]

Virtual media. Higher advanced stats belong to Zach Charbonnet. Higher avoided tackle rate than Jamir Gibbs. Higher yards after contact per rush than Jameer Gibbs.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Who has a higher career high scrimmage yard game. Zach Charbonnet. 193. 189 for Jameer Gibbs. I don't know.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

My boy. My boy.

[Adam]

I'm sorry. This is.

[Jamie]

It's a hot take and I get it. And it's never going to look good on paper. Gibbs is the flashiest running back in the NFL.

[Adam]

Amazing. He's amazing.

[Jamie]

He's an amazing talent. I totally get it. So is Ken Walker. They're both amazing athletes and talents. And maybe Gibbs, I will. I will say can offer more when he's on the field from a schematic standpoint, but as far as just like, which back can handle that full load and do everything on the football field, I think it's more sharpening. I think as far as playing the nuance. Nuance to playing the running back position. I love him.

[Adam]

Yeah. Bill's Mafia says dan thinks Blink182 is one of the greatest bands of all time.

[Jamie]

Terrible. Terrible. Take Build Mafia. I do not have.

[Adam]

You look at all the British Invasion bands and you throw Blink 182 in there. Blink 182 is my band number two. They are. They are better. It's the Rolling Stones one and then Blink 182 followed by the Beatles. That.

[Jamie]

Wait, what? As far as what? Your rankings of what I'm.

[Adam]

I'm doing your rankings of the parody, dude. Of.

[Jamie]

Oh, that's a parody of Blink182 with the.

[Adam]

With the British Invasion.

[Jamie]

I like how you set that up.

[Adam]

Thank you. Thank you. All right, so.

[Jamie]

No, I do not think Blink182 is a top two band or top three.

[Adam]

I think. I think that just as an aside, the song all the Small Things is. It makes me angrier than any song. It is a joke because it is a joke song. Not meant to be taken seriously. Is a horrible song. It had a very funny music video and it became a popular song, but it should never be played on the radio because it's an awful song. We should only be watching the video where he's sitting on the toilet and all. That's very funny. It's a parody, basically. I don't know why people fell for it. To think that all the Small Things is a good song. It is a intentionally bad song. Please don't listen to all this.

[Jamie]

Any of that. I'm not sure I agree with any of that. Take.

[Adam]

All right, Isaac Orndo, so we got to speed this up. Does anybody trust Patrick Taylor this week? If he's the starter against the Rams on Thursday, hell yeah, baby. Oh, I don't think so.

[Jamie]

I think it would be getting him up to speed. I would a hundred percent agree with you on that, Gibbs.

[Heath]

He just. He fits their. Their scheme so well. I feel like I don't trust either one of them.

[Jamie]

No. This is a terrible gum a Dan on Nickelback. Hear me out. I don't like Nickelback. What are we talking about here?

[Adam]

Dan. It's Dan on Nickelback. Quote, hear me out.

[Jamie]

No, no.

[Adam]

Nickelback's first song I really like, like their first hit, but then they just released that's creed. That's great. Nickelback was. This is how you remind me. Was their first.

[Jamie]

You remind me of who I am.

[Adam]

Yeah, exactly.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Yes. Yes. That's the song. But then they just kept releasing the same song over and over again for like 20 years.

[Jamie]

Same crap over.

[Adam]

And as far as the Chargers guys go, you got lucky with the touchdown there. So with. From Gus Edwards. All right, next up, how from hipster Doofus, a regular contributor to the show, how does the Aiden O'Connell injury affect the fantasy playoff outlook for Jacoby Myers, Brock bowers, and sincere McCormick? Well, luckily they have Atlanta, Jacksonville, and the Saints in their next three games, two of them at home. But it's going to be Desmond Ritter going forward. Jacob, how do you. Does this change your rankings of Myers, Bowers and or McCormick?

[Heath]

Definitely, like, O'Connell was providing like real juice for the offense with the air yards I got. I mean, you just pray at this point. The matchups are great.

[Jamie]

The matchups are great. I'll say this. I watched some sincere McCormick on tape in this game and then I watched what he some of his snaps versus the Chiefs. I kind of like Sincere McCormick. I'm gonna be honest. Like, I thought the Raiders first of all have a nice, interesting mix in their run offense. It was kind of a good mix of outside zone, inside zone, and then different man concepts. The 29 yard run that McCormick McCormick had was a great combo of lateral agility when he gets in that open space. The ability to make a defender missing a phone booth, which I saw in multiple snaps, which I Thought was really interesting. And that's the lateral agility and then contact balance. He had really good contact balance. If you want to see a good clip, go to. If you're shacking on NFL game pass, go to 14:55, the first run of the third quarter. Great job pressing the line of scrimmage. And that jump back jump cut into the cutback lane. Six yard gain, 1331 in the third quarter was an example of his contact balance. I gotta be honest, he reminds me a little bit just from like the contact balance, lateral agility, the foot quickness, and then the tempoing with his runs of a very poor man's. Let me make that clear. And I don't want to say very. But just.

[Heath]

I'm so excited for this.

[Jamie]

A poor man's version of Maurice Jones. Drew.

[Heath]

Yes.

[Adam]

Okay. All right. That's.

[Jamie]

I like.

[Adam]

I thought you were gonna say somebody.

[Jamie]

I'm interested in for dining. You thought I was gonna say what?

[Adam]

Hall of Famer Zach Charbonnet. I thought you were gonna say I still stand.

[Jamie]

I said about Jack Jarvan. And with that said, sincere McCormick's somebody I would invest in in Dynasty. And I think he could be an interesting piece down the stretch with that schedule. I just do now worry about what Jacob said. The offense falling apart with Ritter.

[Heath]

You might not believe this, but I actually had sincere McCormick ahead of Devon H. And Jamir Gibson. My rankings from that draft class.

[Jamie]

Really?

[Adam]

Did you?

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Interesting.

[Jamie]

Okay. I'd love to hear that because I.

[Heath]

Yeah, he was my RB2.

[Jamie]

I did.

[Adam]

I love it.

[Heath]

Come on. How are you buying?

[Adam]

That was great. You don't usually do that. That was terrific.

[Jamie]

I didn't see that.

[Adam]

Here are some stats today.

[Jamie]

I'm getting killed today.

[Adam]

Here are some stats. The Las Vegas. Let's talk about the Las Vegas passing game. They are 25th in yards per attempt at 6.5 yards per attempt. Last year, Desmond Ritter averaged 7.3 yards per attempt with Atlanta. As a Rookie, he averaged 6.2. This year, the Raiders are averaging 6.5 yards per attempt. They are 31st in touchdown rate, 2.9%, 24th and interception rate. They actually probably have a terrible passing game. However, they're second in pass attempts and their second in pass rate. They're 14th in gross passing yards per game. You could make a statistical case that Desmond Ritter is not that bad. That what really held him back was that he just was playing with Arthur Smith and had barely threw the ball. Right. Because I was.

[Heath]

I was going to say those are Arthur Smith stats, actually. That are boosting his efficiency.

[Adam]

All right, maybe. But Drake London last year with Desmond Ritter or in his career with Desmond ritter, he's averaged 8.6 yards per target. Drake London this year with Kirk Cousins, 7.5 yards per target, 1.1 yards less. So I think yours per target is a dumb stat. I like it's. I don't really like it. There's just too much that goes into it to know how legit it is. But it's possible that. It's possible that Desmond Ritter is not so much worse than Aiden O'Connell. Like, he's Aiden O'Connell for goodness sake. Here. I do think it's a downgrade for everyone, but not like a. We're not sitting. Brock Bowers, obviously. And still, like I'd still. I'd still start Jacoby Meyer. Am I going to say this out loud? Jacoby Myers or Jordan Addison? I'd still start Jacoby Myers, I think.

[Jamie]

No, no, no, no, no, no.

[Adam]

I could be convinced otherwise on that, but that's my initial gut.

[Heath]

Yeah, you can give the people that hope with the stats you just gave. But I do think like for them to get the passing volume that they've been getting, you know, that you laid out why the offense has been producing because they have so much passing volume and everything. Like attempts, they're throwing a lot. You have to have first downs and that's. I really just worried the Dolphins will fall apart.

[Adam]

That could be. It could be. I actually like. Yeah, I think it's more likely that it. That. That Desmond Ritter is just bad and he is not like those yards per attempt. All that stuff doesn't even matter. He's the third string quarterback behind Minshu and Oconnell for a reason. But we are talking about Ian O'Connell like the guys. He was having an absolutely dreadful game yesterday, for the record. Okay. So that was my sort of statistics.

[Jamie]

We need to hit this fantasy cops.

[Adam]

All right. All right. The last one here from Mike DeLuca. Players that are fringe starters. I want to officially amend what I said. I'd start Addison over Myers from Mike DeLuca. Players that are fringe starters that you can drop for handcuffs and DSTs for the playoffs. So I have two quarterbacks who are about 90 rostered that I think you could consider dropping for your handcuff. One is Justin Herbert, if you want to see if McConkey's playing and then maybe start them against Tampa Bay. I think that's reasonable. But after that, he has Denver, C.J. stroud has Miami, Kansas City and Baltimore. It doesn't even matter. Like Stroud just hasn't been good enough. So those two guys, if you are set at quarterback and you're never starting C.J. stroud and you're never starting Justin Herbert and you don't fear them being used against you in a court of law, you could drop them. And then basically almost anyone that's rostered in fewer leagues than those guys, there are a ton of quarterbacks that you could drop. If you feel like you're set, just ask yourself, is this guy going to be picked up by my opponent and then beat me? Don't pick up a handcuff if you think you're giving up a weak winner at another position. You can drop Javante Williams. You can drop Alexander Madison. I hope Madison doesn't screw things up for McCormick. I think one thing's for sure. Madison is not going to be good. But I hope he doesn't screw things up from McCormick. I think you can drop Xavier Worthy. I mean, at this point in the year, what's it going to take for you to have confidence in starting him? You know, to me, he's droppable. I wouldn't say that if this were week eight, if we still had bye weeks or something like that. But I think Worthy is pretty droppable. Nick Westbrook, akin a got Cincinnati this week, but tough to trust Tank Dell, like, I think you can drop. I did drop him in one league.

[Heath]

No, don't drop Tank Dell.

[Adam]

Don't drop Tank Dell. Come on. What do I do? Like, when is Tank Del gonna finally wake up?

[Heath]

Matchups are good.

[Adam]

They've been good. They've been good before.

[Jamie]

I wouldn't drop Tank though.

[Heath]

I just saw the Jonathan Brooks news and I need the what is it?

[Jamie]

On the same day. It's brutal.

[Adam]

Oh, no, that is.

[Heath]

And they were, they were vague about it too. Which leaves it open to be like multiple.

[Jamie]

Yeah, yeah. It's not good for Jonathan Brooks and I would say for Juba Hubbard. I mean, we could be looking at a wildly high draft pick for him next year.

[Adam]

Oh, that's awful. All right. I think you can drop Keon Coleman. I think you can drop Romeo Dobbs. You can definitely drop Tyler Lockett and you can drop Xavier Leggett and you can drop us an email@fantasy footballbsi.com and put fantasy cops in the subject line. This one comes from Justin. We've had questions like this before, but let's do it again. We have a 10 team auction league with all our best friends from college. We've Been doing it for 15 years. Sounds like a Schneider league. This is the last week before the playoffs start. I'm in sixth, last playoff spot. Pat in my league is tied with me, but I have the tiebreaker over him by 100 points. If I win, I'm in the playoffs. If I lose and Pat loses, I'm in the playoffs. If I lose and Pat wins, Pat's in the playoffs. Here's the dispute. Pat is playing the number one seed, Dylan. Dylan, who has it all locked up. His team is stacked. Dylan is purposely tanking his game against Pat because he doesn't want to play me in the playoffs. So he's playing Bo Nicks on a buy and Zay Flowers on a buy. He's essentially giving Pat a free win, hoping that I lose because he doesn't want me in the playoffs. He argues this is strategy, and the rest of the league says it's Dylan's team and he can do whatever he wants. I think this ruins the integrity of the league. And this isn't fantasy football. All these guys know this is wrong and won't speak up. And keep in mind, the winner gets $2,000.

[Jamie]

Oh, geez.

[Adam]

What are your thoughts?

[Heath]

It's a dynasty league, right? It's like a long standing league.

[Adam]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Heath]

I think, I mean, typically leagues have rules about, you know, you have to have a starting lineup, and if somebody, even if somebody's not checking their team, then the commissioner would, you know, enact and make sure that they have a real lineup. If your league doesn't have a rule about it, then I don't know what you do. You need to address that. But you can't do it after the fact. Right now.

[Jamie]

As someone who's built a reputation for being a bad cop, you know, very strict. I've said before, and I'll say again, weak, inactive, bad traders, not paying attention. Kick them out of your leagues. You don't want that. You want to build a competitive league. I kind of find this to be strategy.

[Adam]

Yeah, I love it. I think it's.

[Jamie]

I kind of love it, and I kind of find it to be strategy.

[Adam]

It's fine.

[Jamie]

And I think it's a fair strategy.

[Adam]

I. Look, look, I, I will give you an example. In one of my leagues this week, I am locked into a top six seed. The top six seeds are set in stone with the seeds are not, but the top six teams are set. It's our magazine league. I think we're all in it. Jacob, I think, is number one. I'm like five. I Did not want to drop Hunter Henry. I didn't want to drop anyone on my bench to start a tight end. I didn't need to win this week, so I dropped the Seahawks DST and I picked up the Ravens DST to play them for next week. Week. I started two or three players on a buy. I don't care.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Adam]

If that. It didn't affect anything because, like I said, the top six seeds are. The top six teams are set. But I don't care if it did. I don't care about your fantasy team. I care about my fantasy team. I didn't do anything. You know, I did what I needed to do to position myself better to win the league. I didn't just, like, on a whim decide to bench these guys because I don't care. I think this. This is totally fine. If you're doing something to help your chances of winning in the future, I am fine with it. As long as you're not colluding with someone, which I wasn't and which doesn't sound like is going on here.

[Jamie]

Agreed.

[Adam]

So we're good. All right, next. Fantasy Cops. This is from Izzy. From a town with the name of a Long island railroad line.

[Jamie]

From a town with the name of a Long Island. Ah, no, I'm not gonna get that. This is the transit line.

[Adam]

It's. It's Port Wash. This is the train to Port Washington. The next station is Little Neck. Yeah, you're welcome, Izzo. All right, he says we need your ruling here. Team A had a less than 1 point lead on Team B in Week 13. On Wednesday, the NFL listed a stat correction that gave Jonathan Taylor a fumble. In our league, a fumble is minus one. So this gave Team B the win. On Sunday, after the 1pm games began, the NFL reversed the ruling, and our platform sent out a message stating that they will not be changing the scores, and it's up to the individual commissioners to do so, should the change be made. All right, so real quick, Team A wins by less than one point over Team B. But Team A had Jonathan Taylor on Wednesday. Stat correction. Jonathan Taylor gets a fumble, loses a point. And now Team B is the winner. On Sunday afternoon, after the 1pm games begin, an update to the stat correction. Jonathan Taylor actually did not fumble, and team A should have won, as we saw to begin with. But the app says we're not making the change. It's up to the commissioner. What would you guys do if you were commissioner?

[Jamie]

I would make the change as commissioner.

[Adam]

I think this is easy. Absolutely.

[Jamie]

Yeah, absolutely.

[Adam]

Team A gets the win.

[Jamie]

It's unfair to do anything other than that.

[Adam]

And our final email is not a fantasy cops email, but it's in this. In the realm, in the. In the neighborhood of family cops. It's from Michael, from a town in Wisconsin named after our nation's bird.

[Jamie]

Nation's what?

[Adam]

Bird. Yeah.

[Jamie]

Bald eagle is the nation's bird. And I know some towns in Wisconsin. I should know more. I don't know. I don't know. I should get this, but I don't know.

[Adam]

Should? Yeah, you should.

[Jamie]

What do you have? What is it?

[Adam]

Charbonnet, Wisconsin.

[Jamie]

Now. You had no idea. No idea, dear.

[Adam]

But I do know this greeting and so does Dan. Let's see if Jacob knows it. Dear Boyle, Peralta, Jeffords, Diaz and Santiago.

[Heath]

Yeah, of course.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Such a good show.

[Adam]

The guy in our league who talks the most trash won the inaugural season of our league. I always tease him that it comes with an asterisk since it was the first time all ten of us had done an auction draft and a lot of people didn't fully know what they were doing. He has since missed the playoffs three years in a row in our 10 team league where the top six make it. @ what point does the statute of limitations come in with winning a fantasy championship? He's becoming the 85 bears and it's sad to watch.

[Jamie]

What an email. This is an amazing email.

[Adam]

Yeah, that's a good one.

[Jamie]

You know, as a trash talker myself, I support the trash talker here. Enjoy. Keep talking trash. Banners fly forever. That's something Heath's told me and I agree. You've won the league. Okay. Lean on it. Enjoy it. There is somebody in my league who's been to the finals four or five times and lost every single time. There's also another person who loses every year but has won one time. That person who won the one time has more to brag about.

[Adam]

I think. So I'd be like, like, would you rather be a Giants fan or a 49ers fan?

[Jamie]

Right. Well, that's not the best.

[Adam]

They haven't. What if you were.

[Jamie]

If you were about Giants or Bills?

[Adam]

Yeah. Okay, fine.

[Jamie]

If you.

[Adam]

Giants fan or. Well, but I mean, the Niners have been to the super bowl twice and lost. Right. Like in the last 20 years. Yeah.

[Jamie]

Anyway, it's better to be more relevant.

[Adam]

Yeah. Better to be always. Better to be a Giants fan. All right, we're out of here, everybody. Thanks so much for watching and listening. We're going to check on Jacob in just an hour. Or so make sure he's okay. He is sullen with the Jonathan Brooks news. It really stinks. Sorry to see it.

[Heath]

I'm not. Okay.

[Adam]

Yeah, we'll talk.

[Jamie]

He doesn't even want to be around anymore, you know. Did you reference.

[Adam]

Did you know he made that. Yes, I do. He already made the joke in the private chat five seconds ago.

[Jamie]

What's the reference?

[Adam]

Don't you dare. I think you should leave me at me.

[Jamie]

I didn't know you. I actually didn't know until this point.

[Adam]

I knew about. I think you should leave before you knew about. I think you should leave.

[Jamie]

I don't think that's. Have you watched Detroiters yet? No, I actually think I like it better.

[Adam]

Wow. Really?

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Have you seen basketball? Give me.

[Heath]

Yes.

[Jamie]

So good.

[Adam]

Later, everybody.

[F]

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