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Beyond the Box Score: Panthers and Bears Offensive Changes, Seahawks are Awesome, Matthew Stafford League Winner? (11/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)
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- [00:00]
A
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- [01:31]
B
This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
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C
What a play. Can you believe this? No, I can't.
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B
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
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C
Off to the races and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance.
- [01:46]
B
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
- [01:52]
A
Welcome to beyond on the box score. This is fantasy football today presented by BetMGM. Make it legendary. And we've got advanced stats from simple people as we break down Seattle and Washington. We talk about DK Metcalf and his bad game. Tedro McMillan and his bad game. We have fun with screenshots. Rico Dowdle, is he a top 10 running back rest of season? What's going on with Romo Dunze? What's going on with the Colts wide receivers? Big game from Alec Pierce. Are we buying it? Hello, Jacob Gibbs, how are we?
- [02:24]
D
Hey, I'm a little bit sad, you know, Chiefs loss, the loss of Tucker Kraft, who is one of the. You know, my favorite players to watch this year, Jaden Daniels. Like, there's a lot to be sad about, but at the end of it, I've got this new solace that I can find at the end of Sunday nights, which is that there's a new episode of the Chair Company that has come out. So that's. That's really what I'm looking forward to the most on Sundays. So I'm doing all right, all things considered.
- [02:50]
A
Well, that's a pretty low bar. As long as there's a new episode of the Chair Company, it doesn't seem to matter what happens on Sunday.
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D
I don't know what I'm gonna do when the season is over.
- [03:02]
A
You could just binge the Detroiters.
- [03:04]
D
Do you think I don't already do that like I did every couple months?
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A
Schneier, what's up?
- [03:11]
C
Yeah, man. Like, I feel what Jacob's saying. It feels like this season's been more. More injuries, or maybe I'm just thinking that it's recency bias. Maybe the injuries have been more impactful, but it is kind of taken away a bit. But we fight through. It's fantasy football. We find the waiver wire, guys. But where I'm really feeling the karma this morning, Adam, is involving you, because through the years on this podcast, I have given you an insane amount of flack for just what feels to me like you being sick 11 out of 12 months of a given calendar year. And now I just am sick. And I've been sick sick for, like, a week and a half or something like that. I can't get over it. I'm not sleeping great, and I'm just like, you know what? This is karma for all the crap I gave Adam for his immune system. It's finally coming back to bite me. And I may go back to the nose strip. For those making jokes in the comments, I may go back to the nose strip.
- [04:01]
A
I did a very good nose strip dad impression yesterday on the show. You should check it out. All right, Seattle, Seattle 38 and Washington 14 and Jacob. And in every way, you don't want to make too much of one week, but in every way, it just seemed like a tale of two teams moving in completely opposite directions.
- [04:25]
D
Yeah, Seattle is like a perfect killing machine right now. Like, and Washington was not the team that was ready to deal with that and run into that there. I mean, Sam Donald is so locked in. He's perfect right now.
- [04:37]
C
It's.
- [04:38]
D
It's scary. And the defense is even scarier. Like, I. I Don't know. I, I've, the Washington stuff sucks. Like there's nothing. It feels like they're basically a dead offense for fantasy, which is crazy.
- [04:51]
A
Yeah.
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D
There were so many pieces of this offense that we were excited about like coming into the year even just a month ago, and now it's like, well, do you want to play any of them? Maybe Debo?
- [05:03]
A
Yeah, yeah, maybe. I mean he had, he had six targets on 22 pass attempts. He's, I don't know, they just throw really short area throws to him. He looked fine, I thought, I mean I wasn't really watch, I watched like his targets but I didn't see his routes. I don't know if he's beating guys, but he can still do some yak stuff. He's fine. He's fine. You know, obviously they've had kind of a tough schedule lately. They faced Seattle this week, they faced the Chiefs last week. So I don't know. I, I, this is exactly how I feel. It's like he's fine, Earth's maybe fine while McLaurin's out, but it's, it's ugly. The thing, one interesting thing from the commander side though is that Marcus Mariota and Jaden Daniels this year, completion percentage, yards per attempt and one other metric, yards per game, maybe, I don't know. It's almost identical. So it hasn't really been like a big drop. Oh, passing yards per game. They're both, oh, touchdown rate. That's what it was. I'm sorry everyone. It's completion rate, touchdown rate, yards per attempt. They're almost identical for Mariota and Jaden Daniels.
- [06:11]
C
So there's, there's that biggest difference I see just with Washington is last year they were able to scheme up things in the run game that just worked. And, and maybe it was because Jaden was on the field and he was so electric and there was more of a rushing element to his game too because he was fully healthy. But that just seems to be out like this year. Like when I watch their run offense, it doesn't seem to be creating like they were creating. And that's maybe on Cliff, I don't know who that's on. Maybe on the offensive line. They never really had the most talented offensive line. Even last season it was just more of an example of maybe them coming together under Bobby Johnson, their offensive line coach and Cliff scheme. So I think that really stands out to me. Me, they're way more one dimensional team than I thought they'd be on offense.
- [06:53]
D
Yeah.
- [06:55]
C
Not being very good by the way.
- [06:56]
D
But I want to just acknowledge Bill because there have been a lot of people have been excited about him because of us. I don't feel any hope at all. Like, I. He, for one, doesn't look good at all. He looks so hesitant, whereas early in the year he was running decisively. Now I feel like you can see it in his body language. And then also he gets up to the line and he's like, ah. He's like, you need to go. You need to move like north, south.
- [07:18]
A
And.
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D
And then Chris Rodriguez comes in and does exactly that. And it's just like, I don't. I don't know, man. Like, I think he's got the talent, so maybe something happens at the end of the year, but, like, as it stands right now, I see no real path to him mattering for fantasy.
- [07:32]
C
Yeah, sorry.
- [07:33]
A
It's a shame he doesn't catch passes. I'm not even sure he's the goal line back because Chris Rodriguez has had a couple of those in recent. In recent weeks and Rodriguez is 6% rostered. This just feels like a backfield to avoid and I don't want to beat a dead horse. The only thing I'll say about Rodriguez, you see the stat line. 12 carries, 65 yards and a touchdown. He had five carries for 30 yards in the final minutes of the game against Seattle. Backups. All right. By the way, you definitely should pick up Marcus Mario in super flex leagues. He is 10 rostered. He's been fine. He scored 22.3, 20.2 and 13.3 fantasy points at Kansas City that last game. But remember, that game really turned when Debo Samuel had a ball, hit him in the face, and then it was an interception. The last thing I'd say about them, I think we could all agree when we have to talk about it, Terry McLaurin's a good player. They are really missing that element. And now McCaffrey's broke, got a broken collarbone and not Christian. Luke McCaffrey, broken collarbone. He's going to be out for a while on the Seattle side. I think my only question for the passing game, Jacob, is can they really be this efficient? I mean, you're talking about Jackson, Smith and Jigba right now having, I would say, an historic season. He's the number two wide receiver per game. He's averaging 4.47 yards per route run. I can't imagine anyone's ever done that over a full season. Puka is second at 3.52, JSN's at 4.4, 7.
- [08:56]
D
No one's even come close.
- [08:58]
C
Yeah.
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D
And it keeps going up. He averaged over 5 yards per hour run this year, this week.
- [09:03]
A
So maybe we don't even need to talk about him. But what he's. It's worth noting what he is doing is. Is mind blowing.
- [09:12]
D
Yeah. And it looks so easy. It look, like I said, like perfect. Like that's how it looks. Is just like he's getting to this exact spot and Darnold is just like walking it to him and putting it exactly where it needs to be. And if Tory Horton can actually get on the field more, that is just like another problem that allows, like he can actually go win as an outside receiver on the line, which cup hasn't really given them. And that allows you to move Jackson Smith, Ajigba around more and do even more creative things with him, which Clint Kubiak can definitely do. And it adds a deep threat to the offense. You know, like the safeties, like, have to account for Horton. We're seeing he has like seven touchdowns or something right. Already this year. Like one of them is a special teamer, but like he's been a legitimate big play threat.
- [09:57]
A
Jacob. Every single time Tori Horton has had four, he's never had more than four targets, but every time he's had four targets in a game, he's caught at least one touchdown.
- [10:05]
D
I love it. He's so good, man. He's a baller and.
- [10:08]
C
And we talked a lot about Tori Horton on Beyond the box Score over the last few weeks and really over the last few months. He's a big fan. We're big fans of Tory Horton. The tape was unbelievable at college. The pro tape's been just as good. Like on the limited basis that he's been able to get opportunities and play. As you mentioned, he's not only scored touchdowns, but he's actually looked really good. When you actually watch the reps, he creates separation with ease. I think for a kind of longer stride player, he does a great job of. Of just lateral cuts to create separation. And you see it when he's winning these routes, I think. And Matt Harmon mentioned this today and I thought it was interesting. He's like, can they put the Tori Horton cut? Like, can they put it back in the cut? Like, I don't know what the term is. I'm forgetting it right now. I'm dealing with back in the bottle.
- [10:50]
D
Right?
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C
Back in the bottle. Can you put Tory Horton back in the bottle? Like, obviously they want to play Cooper cup for reasons they paid him. They. He blocks probably better than Tori Horton. He plays a bigger, he plays that role in the offense. But this is predominantly 12 personnel. You know, a team that's not going to use that much 11 personnel. With that said, they're a better team with Horton on the field than Cooper Cup. That looks so obvious to me. So that's the interesting thing that I take away from this game moving forward because we have a quarterback as Jacob texting me during the game in the first half playing quote unquote perfect football. It really looked like that in the first half. The way Sam Darnold's playing is the, the exact ceiling people thought that he had when he came into the draft, he's now realizing in my mind. So that leads me to believe there is a possibility for Horton to be a play in fantasy down the line. He has the talent, he has the quarterback. He literally just needs the role.
- [11:37]
A
Yeah, yeah. And he was perfect by the way. Sam Darnold was 15, 15, I think in the first half. I know he had zero incompletions. So I'll ask you a Darnold question. But before we do that, we won't trust any of the commanders running backs. Can we start a Seattle running back? I think they only ran 48 plays. Yeah, 48 plays in this game. So just wasn't great for fantasy. They were benching their starters at the end of the game. But Ken Walker's got four straight games with single digit PPR fantasy points. So that's discouraging. He did have two carries from the three yard line. Those are his only carries all year from the three yard line or closer in a game that Zach Charbonnet played. But then there was a sequence where he got down to the one and then Charbonnet came in at the one yard line. But at least he was there. He had two catches, which was actually a lot on a day where they barely threw. He had a 50% route participation rate which was TI, which was a season high. So Dan, I'll throw this one to you. Can we start a Seattle running back on a week to week basis?
- [12:37]
C
I mean yes and no. Like yes. Because of the situation that faces us in fantasy football and how few players, you know, we need probably to start them in flex spots. But can we trust them? That's probably the better question. No, I don't think so. Okay. I mean Ken Walker's shown me nothing from a fantasy standpoint that leads me to believe I should trust him on a weekly basis. Charbonnet is a touchdown or bust type play and that's essentially what they are.
- [13:01]
A
I guess you just have to hold out hope.
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C
And I don't even think, like, with Walker, we usually get more of the big play touchdowns than we've gotten this year.
- [13:09]
A
Right. It's a holdout hope if, if you're a Walker manager, that they look at them, they go, look, Walker's just running a lot better than sharpening.
- [13:16]
C
Maybe it's not gonna happen, though. They're winning football games with this formula.
- [13:19]
A
All right.
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D
The usage did shift his way a little bit, so it's possible that it's happening. I don't know. Like, that's. It's. At least this was maybe a sign of hope before that had been like all Charbonne were very rigid with the roles that they're playing.
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C
Yeah.
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D
Well, this is a little bit different. I wonder why.
- [13:32]
C
But even if he's getting more of those between the 20s touches and taking some more of that role from Charbonnet, doesn't inspire much hope for me. For fantasy. I really need. It needs to be the red zone. You mentioned there were two red zone touches. So.
- [13:43]
D
And that's. Yeah, I do think, like, if they had touchdowns, you might feel different and just happen to all come through the air. And if this is an offensive juggernaut, which it kind of appears to be, and if the defense is really good, then they'll probably be leading a lot and maybe running a lot.
- [13:55]
A
I liked. I liked Darnold this week because I mentioned it so many times. He led the NFL in yards per attempt. He still does. And Washington came into the game worse than the NFL in yards per attempt. So huge takeaway is you want to start quarterbacks against Washington. And by the way, they lost three cornerbacks, three defensive backs in this game. Three guys who play a lot went down. I don't know how the severity of the injuries, but they had three defensive backs get hurt in this game and big injury. Ernest Jones there, that's like their communicator, their linebacker on defense for Seattle, he got hurt. So we'll see how that affects their run defense, which to date has been the best in football. All right, we can wrap it up with that. Jacob, what's on the schedule for beyond the box score for week 10?
- [14:40]
D
We're just kind of going into the classics, like getting. Getting you guys caught up on some rankings and rest of season rankings. We've. We've done some more specific positional reviews, coaching reviews and stuff like that lately, but just want to kind of get dialed in as we are like heading into the second half of the season here. So we did like wide receiver and tight end players who we thought we could be like the rookies who could be rest of season breakouts. We're going to focus on the running backs a little bit more this week. I was at a Halloween party this this past weekend and I've got a buddy who listens to the show and he's like I feel like I'm like so laser locked in on receivers. I know like every single thing I need to know about like 60 different receivers and he' like but running back, I don't know what the hell to do. He said. A couple weeks ago I traded Jacoi Crosky Merit for or I traded Derek Henry for Jakob Crosby Merit. He's like I'm hopeless out here. I don't know what it is but like I can't figure out running back. I'm like okay, I don't know if that's a reflection of the show or not. But like let's spend some time with running back. So that's kind of what we're going to do is try to try to make sense of some of these backfields.
- [15:36]
A
Excellent. Looking forward to that and looking forward to giving you the news and notes. We have updates on Tucker Kraft, Jaden Daniels. We'll give you that when we come back.
- [15:44]
C
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- [16:47]
B
What's up everyone? It's Siya Najad from Fantasy Football Today dfs, a weekly NFL daily fantasy show that's a part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. If you're looking for NFL game by game previews, which players stock is up or down, and DFS strategies and Advice, Mike, Will McClure, Meg Shoup and I have you covered every single week. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long. Good luck. What's up everyone? It's the counselor of Cash, Siya Najad from the Early Edge, a daily sports betting show powered by Sportsline and part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. If you're looking for the best bets, picks and analysis for the day in sports, we're your one stop shop. We're locked in every day with NFL bets and player props, college football picks and so much more. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Subscribe to the Sports Line YouTube page to watch us live at 10am Eastern Time every weekday. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long. Good luck.
- [17:46]
D
For what it's worth, when he traded Derek Henry for a bill, I was like, whoa, boy. He like tells you about the trades. A lot of times I'm like, oh, cool. And that was like, this is really risky, dude.
- [17:56]
C
You could have ran that by me.
- [17:58]
A
Yeah, seriously. Let's talk before your trades. All right. Jaden Daniels dislocated his elbow. We don't have a timetable yet. CJ Stroud is in the concussion protocol and he gets Jacksonville if he comes back this week. Otherwise it will be Davis Mills running back news. Aaron Jones is optimistic about playing this upcoming week against Baltimore. He has a shoulder injury. Samaj P. Ryan left, I think on the opening kickoff. Chase Brown played 97 of the snapshot, which you know is not a far cry from what we had been seeing. And then that's about it on that. I'm sure you guys enjoyed The Rico Dowdle two pumps thing. Brian Thomas Jr. Ankle injury. Puka Nakua ribs injury. Garrett Wilson, but I think Puka's fine. They seemed optimistic about it. Garrett Wilson's gonna practice this week. He gets Cleveland. Matthew golden shoulder, booty hamstring. Anything on Slayton? Is he okay?
- [18:56]
C
Seems fine.
- [18:57]
A
Okay. And trade deadlines tomorrow, so we'll see if anybody gets moved. Cedric Tillman, his 21 day window to return to the active Roster has been opened. He'll be practicing this week. Tucker Craft, torn acl. What's your interest level in Luke Musgrave, guys?
- [19:15]
D
He was pretty much full time player. I think I heard Dwayne McFarland on the fantasy life recap say that he had like an 88 route rate once like following the injury. So, I mean, I'll throw it to Dan. He was a big Musquerator fan.
- [19:26]
C
I was a huge Musquera fan coming out of college. And I still think his rookie year he showed off really good stuff on tape with the Packers. I put him on my speculative list. I mean, there's a lot of tight ends at this point, but you might be in a position where you either have Craft or another injury. So it's. I'm open to the idea of it. Let's.
- [19:43]
D
I'd rather have Loveland for sure.
- [19:45]
C
Yeah.
- [19:46]
D
Here's a question that I think is relevant. It's like, would you pick a Musgrave or like stick with Ertz? Likely. Likely I just think is really interesting because he's like, he's like the Tori Horton of tight ends where it's like there's no such things as Stash, but he actually is. If something were to happen to Andrews, he would become like really relevant. I think.
- [20:03]
C
I would go Musgrave over those two.
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A
I think I go Earth's.
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C
Oh.
- [20:10]
A
I mean, look, even Tucker Kraft wasn't really getting that many targets. He's just the most efficient tight end in football right now. So you can't ask Musgrave. I. What? I can't remember the stat I gave last week, Dan. It was like Tucker Kraft had three target three touchdowns with 15 or more Yak 15 or more yards after the catch. And I didn't find a single tight end that had more than four in the last 15 years or something like that. So I don't know if Musgrave will ever do that. Basically, they're very different.
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C
More of a vertical stretch, the seam type of tight end.
- [20:42]
A
Okay.
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D
Did you mention Golden's injury? Do you know the extent of that shoulder injury?
- [20:47]
A
I. I mentioned it. I don't know the extent, no.
- [20:50]
C
Yeah.
- [20:51]
A
And Cole Comet left before halftime. But as I mentioned on yesterday's show, Colcomett was barely playing even when he was healthy. He ran 5ish routes in the first half.
- [21:01]
C
Lovely.
- [21:01]
A
Had a 75 route participation rate in the first half. Okay. We do have a lot of offensive line injuries. The ones that really stand out would be the Chargers with both of their tackles getting hurt and Joe Alt could be out for a while and I think the Panthers cause I was watching Rico Dowdle and one of their guards, Chandler Zavala left with an elbow injury. I think he's one who got hurt last week, was able to play this week. He left again almost every run. Rico data had 25 runs. Almost every single one was right up the gut. And then they pitched it to him, they tossed it to him and he had a 29 yard run. His longest run of the game. It was they are so boring. Good for them. They're five and four or whatever. Good for them. They're a story for sure. But man they are a snooze fest. Watching guys run up the gut 20, 23 times is super boring. So. But you know they're going to want their interior offensive line healthy and then the biggest defensive news would be a couple of injuries for New England. Christian Gonzalez and Christian Ellis. San Francisco's D line getting even more banged up with rookie Michael Williams potentially tearing his acl. I mentioned the Ernest Jones thing for Seattle. Also cornerback Josh Jobe for Seattle left with a concussion. Three defensive backs for Washington left with injuries. Atlanta edge Leonard Floyd has a hamstring injury. I didn't see if Zach Allen came back for Denver, but he's one of their best players. They're already missing Sir Tan, so that's one to check on. Buffalo defensive lineman Michael Hecht Torres Achilles and the Eagles just made a trade this morning for Jalen Phillips of the Miami Dolphins. Talented edge rushers. Had a couple of really bad injuries in his career, but he was a first round pick. He can play. All right, advanced stats and other metrics let me tell you about. But you know what? Hold on. Let's talk about BetMGM. Great chance second chance on BetMGM. So picture this. You bet on your favorite player to score the first touchdown in the game, but his teammate scores instead. If this happens, BETMGM wants to give you another chance at the end zone with BetMGM's second chance promotion. You'll get your stake back if your first touchdown scorer scores second instead. That's right. Bet on any pro football player to score the first touchdown of the game. If you're right, you win. If your player scores second, you get your stake back in cash. With BetMGM Second Chance offer, you have a chance to keep the fun going after the first player crosses the goal line. Try a first touchdown scorer wager with confidence today. Bet mgm. Make it legendary. All right, Jacob, my friend, what do we got in the metrics department.
- [23:38]
D
So I just think this, Dan particularly will find this interesting. I've got here on the screen the quarterback fantasy leaders. And it's Patrick Mahomes and Drake May, which we love, and then Justin Herbert, which we love. Guess who leads the league in rushing yards? It's Herbert. And I just feel like, of course, like the offensive line is a problem, but even in this last game we saw him do a ton of scrambling to get away from that. He has way more design rushes than I realize. As I'm just like looking at this. It's like he's basically what we thought Drake May would be coming into the year, but he has way better weapons and we have a longer track record of him being really awesome. But what I mean when I say that is that he's getting design runs. He has more design runs than May did or does. And so coming into the year, the reason we were so excited for Drake May wasn't because we thought he was suddenly going to become the best quarterback in the NFL, which is what he's done, but it was because we thought he was going to run a ton and that would be enough that like, even with the, you know, middling offensive line and pass catchers and all that, that he would be really good for fantasy. And that's basically where we've arrived with Herbert. And I just think that's really interesting because we've been really terrified all year as the tackles have been dropping out of the picture. What would this look like? Is he then like outside of the top six or so for fantasy? What does it mean for the pass catchers? You know, you don't want to react to a game against the Titans, but like, it's. It's been pretty freaking good for Fantasy still for him, it's been great.
- [25:04]
A
I do think there are going to be some games. We've already seen some games like the Giants game where you go, oh man, he just didn't. He just didn't really have much of a chance today because the tackles were so bad. So there might be some games like that that pop up, but I think the positives will outweigh the negatives. And actually Drake May as a decent amount more carries than Justin Herbert. Now that could be. Yeah, Herbert has had a buy and May hasn't. But Drake May, like the one. One thing that we noted a lot was his yards per carry last year was outrageous. And that's come, you know, way down. There's really nothing bad to say about Drake May just pointing out he is running. He's just not nearly as efficient as he was last year. Yeah, Herbert's.
- [25:47]
D
It's Herbert. Herbert's doing it like he's doing exactly what we thought May would do. Like on a per scramble basis, he's easily the top quarterback.
- [25:54]
C
Yeah. Oh wow. He has to scramble more this year, it seems like. So.
- [25:58]
A
Yeah. Oh, Quentin Johnston. So annoying. All right. Anyway, what else?
- [26:04]
D
I've got a fun list for you. We don't have Manangai on our show sheet today, do we? Do we.
- [26:08]
A
Do we have a buy or sell that Manangai is going to usurp DeAndre Swift as RB1.
- [26:13]
D
Okay. Okay, I missed that. Sorry. We'll save that for later.
- [26:15]
A
No problem. Yeah, there's plenty. I saw, I saw yesterday on Twitter what you're going to present. It's really cool.
- [26:22]
D
Alrighty. You go forward then. Hit me with some snap rights and stuff.
- [26:25]
A
I. You know what, honestly, we have more topics today than we've had in the past, so I didn't really get to of the snap rates. I did see the Chase Brown thing, him playing almost every snap. I don't know if this matters, but I, I can't remember if I said this on the show or if I just. If I forgot and put it in my notes, but Sam Laporta this year has been a lot better against zone coverage than man coverage and his 40 yard touchdown was against zone and the Vikings were kind of his own heavy team. I think they were ninth or 10th.
- [26:52]
D
That was a really good call by Ryan. You guys have got to check out this Thursday show that we do where he, he like called this matchup out and I think a lot of people were kind of overlooking Laporta because the tidy landscape has really good. But he's like this is an awesome spot for him because.
- [27:04]
A
Did he mention the zone thing?
- [27:05]
D
Yep. Yeah, it was a cover 4 specifically it was like that type of coverage.
- [27:09]
A
Okay. Yeah. So I looked at the rest of his schedule to see how the zone rates for his upcoming opponents and the next three are really low. 26th in zone. That's Washington. I mean they stink though, you know, like they gave up a touchdown to Arroy. Like they, they're not good against tight ends, but they do play a lot of man. Then it's like Philadelphia, then the giant. He's got three straight games against NFC east opponents and those go 26, 22nd and 31st in zone rate. He's got more zone heavy teams later in the season. But again, I don't know if it's Fluky or Not. But the next three weeks for. For Laporta. I'd be interested to see what happens because he's playing teams that are pretty man heavy.
- [27:50]
D
That makes sense. And I'm Honora St. Brown. They go to Morgan's against man and.
- [27:55]
A
Honestly that's all I got from the. For this segment we could go to our main topics, you know and just kind of get into stuff.
- [28:03]
D
Let's roll.
- [28:04]
A
All right, let's do it. So buy or sell. We're gonna do Buy or sell on this show a little bit more. I've been getting more responses for buy or sell and we'll get to more topics. Buy or sell from KP Teteroa. McMillan has a Bryce Young problem. And I'll just say I'm gonna sell it and say Tedro McMillan has a RICO Dowdle problem. Dan, where are you at on. On this?
- [28:24]
C
We've discussed this Panthers offense a lot on beyond the box score. We got a chance to watch the tape. Their past protection has just been such a nightmare this year. So I'm going to add to this. He has a Bryce Young problem and he has a pass protection problem. He's a Carolina Panthers past production game script problem.
- [28:40]
D
There's a lot of problems.
- [28:41]
C
It's got a lot of problems. Yeah, like we saw an uptick in his production with Andy Dalton. I think Andy Dalton, it's a different style quarterback than Bryce Young and that could potentially lead to the types of games we got from McMillan. If Dalton were to play, which he's not going to like 5 for 72 but with young playing and I think it's really, it's not just Young, it's this Panthers pass protection and with their ability to take the step forward, they've taken on defense and in the run game. It's more of an issue to me of their past game and, and that holding back McMillan's upside. I haven't been high on him really all season, but I, I can't imagine at this point like having faith in him to give you weekly production.
- [29:21]
D
38 games for Bryce Young across his career. How many have gone over 300? Oh 3, 211122 games over 300 passing yards, topping out at 328 and then 312. His next games are 298, 263, 251. So out of 38 games only four have been above 251 yards. Wow, that is a problem. Like yeah, there have been better offensive lines that he's been playing behind along the way. It's bad right now with the offensive line. That is part of the problem for sure. But like, to get upside for your receivers, like, there's a reason that it's felt better when Andy Dalton has been in. It's like this. If you're capped at like 200, 250 yards, like, that's really low relative to the rest of the league.
- [30:04]
A
Can we throw up our Ted Roll McMillan screenshot? Because would we be having this discussion, folks, if he had caught that ball? It's right in his hands. It was not. It's not as easy as it looks from this screenshot, but he was in the end zone. He had that opportunity to catch the touchdown. Touchdowns have eluded him a little bit. He's been close. He caught two against Dallas, but those are his only two all season. Look, Tyrell McMillan. I've got a lot of stats on him, but I think the most important one is just a very simple one. He's the number 35 wide receiver per game, and his rookie season right now is reminding me a lot of Garrett Wilson's rookie season, of Chris Olave's rookie season. These guys were on pace for Garrett Wilson, 147 targets, Olave, 135, McMillan, 130. They're all around 80 catches. Wilson was on pace for. Actually, I don't think it was on pace. I think it's just he played 17 games, 88 catches. They're all either. They either scored or were on pace for four or five touchdowns. They weren't on great passing offenses. He's probably a number three receiver, but he's very good. Just. He makes. He makes what true media defines as explosive plays a lot. I think those are 17 yards or more, but he almost never makes Whoa. Plays. He has one catch all year longer than 29 yards, and that's awful.
- [31:20]
C
Yeah.
- [31:21]
D
So Andy Dalton has. Andy Dalton has seven starts for the Panthers and has the same number of games with 300 or more yards as Brush Young.
- [31:27]
A
To be fair, Andy Dalton was absolutely horrible in that game against Buffalo. He turned the ball over a bunch of times. He only threw for 175 yards, but he threw 10 of his 24 attempts at Ted Roll McMillan.
- [31:38]
D
My point not being necessarily that Andy Dalton is good or anything like that.
- [31:43]
A
Yeah, I get you. All right, So I think McMillan at least gives you a floor. And he's. He's someone I just usually start. I kind of, like I said, I mentioned Chris Olave. I kind of put them in the same boat. I'm gonna start them most weeks. Just they're probably not going to win me my week. But then we go to this guys, they run the ball. This team, they want to run the ball. So buy or sell from Jordan. Rico Dowdle is a top 10 running back rest of season, and he's currently 16th per game in PPR, 12th per game and non PPR. Did I hear a buy by? Can I give you the top 12 right now in PPR and you tell me if he's really top 10? Okay. Yeah. Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Devon Achan, James Cook, Javante Williams, Bucky Irving, Jameer Gibbs, Kyron Williams. That's 10. DeAndre Swift, Saquon Barkley is 11, 12.
- [32:41]
D
Okay. If you put Barkley in there, then there's like 10, but there's like three of them. It was like him and Javante and Cook and Dan's not going to like that. Of course, that I think that you could put him right into that range with. It's really weird because, like, he's on this team that you don't feel very much faith in the offense. Right. But, like, do we have anything like this where a team is so committed to the run and running everything through this one player and it's working so well? It's like Derrick Henry or something like that, but they're way more committed to it. That's, I guess, where I would start. I want to look at into the role a little bit more. But, like, if he's getting all the touches, which is what it felt like, Andy just keeps pounding away and teams can't stop it. I. I feel pretty good about it. Maybe top 10 is too aggressive because those are a lot of guys who have pretty solid profiles. But I think he's in that range.
- [33:34]
A
And guys I didn't mention, Omarion Hampton, Ashton Genti, Breece Hall, Derrick Henry. He's probably not going to be top 10, but he's gonna. He's gonna be in a tier with guys who are around the top 10, I think.
- [33:51]
C
Yeah, I would think he's just outside of it. I mean, those players that we mentioned, including even Derrick Henry and Barkley, were just outside of it, are in better situations. I still have concerns. I know. Look, it's great to do it against the packers defense. That's a good sign. It's a good step that we can feel confident about the situation. And he's a great talent, I think too. And they're actually blocking the run really well. They've committed to it and they've figured out A good scheme for him. But I still feel like this reminds me a lot of the Quinchon Judkins situation. Not in the sense of like at least we know doubt will get the touches no matter what. Judkins can be phased out of certain game scripts, but it's so dependent to me on can the Panthers score. Can the Panthers be in game scripts that allow them to run the football? I'm still very unsold on that right now. I'd have to look a little bit deeper. I was trying to take a look.
- [34:38]
A
As you guys were New Orleans.
- [34:40]
C
Yeah. New Orleans is a good game scripts. Falcons, good game script. Then it gets Niners, Rams, Bucks, Seahawks. Those ones could get out of it.
- [34:47]
A
You also skipped a game against the Saints in there.
- [34:50]
C
No, I said Saints, New Orleans.
- [34:51]
A
But there are two games against the Saints.
- [34:52]
C
Oh, another Saints.
- [34:54]
A
Yeah, they're Saints, Falcons, Niners, Rams by Saints, Bucks, Seahawks.
- [34:59]
C
Another Saint.
- [34:59]
A
Yeah. Buck Seahawks in the. I've talked about this yesterday. Buck Seahawks in the fantasy semifinals and championships tough. And the packers like we we hyped up their run defense. It's been very good for the season. I wish I had seen this and kind of mentioned it. I didn't. This is on me. It hasn't been great lately. It's been good lately. But then.
- [35:19]
C
Johnny, we're just laughing at the YouTube comment. I feel like sometimes on the pod when I'm listening because I listen back to the shows, I feel like it's hard to figure out what we're laughing at on the show because we're laughing at YouTube comments. So I just want to describe what was just said. Johnny Airport said I went trick or treating on Halloween with a no strip and a giant city but nobody knew who I was dressed up as.
- [35:42]
A
I would have got it. Johnny earlier had said he said Dan said he is under the weather but not sick enough for the nose trip again.
- [35:50]
C
The nose trip may be making a reappearance at some point.
- [35:53]
A
All right, all right. So look, I think we're all pretty high on Rico Dowdle. I don't think it's one of those sell high situations. Does he catch the ball enough though? You know he doesn't right.
- [36:02]
C
Really get a lot.
- [36:03]
A
But when I looked at those top 12 running backs PPR seven of the top 12 running backs on a per game basis in full PPR average three or fewer catches per game. And who's the lowest on that list? Which top 12 running back averages the fewest catches per game?
- [36:18]
D
James cook.
- [36:18]
A
James Cook 1.6 no one seems to care.
- [36:22]
D
But right. That's, it's, it's like that has to be the equation. It's like James Cook or Derek Henry or something like that. And it's like, I guess Rico Daddle is now that guy with like, those are superior talents and they're on teams that you expect to normally be leading, you know, and he basically has neither. But at the same time, you look at these three games where they, they just trusted him. It's like 25 touches, 75 snap rate. Like that's a top 10 running back. It just is. But I don't know necessarily if you can extrapolate over a larger sample size.
- [36:52]
A
All right, we're going to take a break and we'll talk about the Bears, what happened to Romo Dunes, what's going to happen in the backfield. That's after this on fft. If you love the NFL and NFL draft, you'll love with the first pick a part of CBS Sports Podcast Network, CBS Sports draft analyst Ryan Wilson and former Titans GM Ran Carthon come to you twice a week to give the front office perspective on the biggest NFL storylines of the day. We also follow the NFL Draft closer than anyone, the weekly updates on our favorite college players, names to know based on your favorite NFL team's needs, and all the mock drafts and big boards you could want. If you love football, you're exactly where you're supposed to be. Download with the first pick and follow on Apple podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Carolina basketball isn't just a program, it's a legacy. I'm John Henson and we'll be the host of Tar Heel247, a UNC basketball podcast for fans who bleed Carolina blue.
- [37:41]
C
Each week I'll be joined by players.
- [37:43]
A
Coaches and insiders for real, unfiltered conversations about the team, the tradition, maybe some funny stories and everything in between. No filters, no fluff, just hoop talk the Tar Heel way. Subscribe now to Tar Heel247@ UNC Basketball.
- [37:58]
B
Podcast or wherever you get your podcast at.
- [38:00]
A
We're gonna have a good time. Let's get ready to go. It's football season and you gotta keep up with the action. Listen in to Pushing the Pile, part.
- [38:10]
C
Of CBS Sports Podcast Network with Mike Renner, Kyle Long, and now me, JP Acosta for smart analysis of everything between the lines.
- [38:18]
A
With four episodes a week Sunday night recaps, film review, power tiers and weekly previews, you will know ball. Stick with us until one team lists.
- [38:28]
C
The Lombardi download and follow Pushing the.
- [38:30]
A
Pile on Apple podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. What's up? Welcome back. Here we go. Sorry, I was reacting to something else. All right, this one is from free, says buy or sell. Romo Dunes is a matchup dependent flex at best. Ouch.
- [38:49]
D
At best.
- [38:51]
C
Wow.
- [38:52]
D
At best. He's like a top freaking eight receiver like we've seen at best. And it's really, really cool. I don't know about that.
- [39:00]
A
Yeah, no, we can't sell that. We can't buy that. We can't buy that. But this is amazing for them to score. How many points did they score in this game? 40 something.
- [39:09]
C
Yeah.
- [39:10]
A
And him to have his three cat, three targets and no catches. He did drop a touchdown, but pretty amazing. Jacob. So we talked about Odunze a couple weeks ago. You mentioned that the first read targets had gone down and then bam, he goes has a huge game in Week 8. Seven catches, 114 yards on 10 targets. Then he comes out with this clunker. What are you seeing?
- [39:29]
D
Yeah, they got a little bit more to DJ Moore and then Loveland of course is more involved too. I my guess is that they. That Cincinnati did something to take Odunze away and that they were willing to go to other pieces also. They just were able to lean on the run game in a more like consistent fashion than maybe they had been getting at times this season. But those are, those are my guesses is they just didn't need to go to a Dunes. I think from a talent standpoint, he can win in pretty much any matchup. My only real problem had been Caleb missing him a lot. And so like now if you have more target concerns too, which could be something we've kind of seen over the past month that hasn't been quite as focused on him as it was in the first month of the season then now you are starting to get a number of things that are concerns, you know, and that probably pushes him down to the like lower wide receiver too type of range, you know, like probably. Probably below somebody like lad McConkey, you know. But I think he can bounce right back. If we see the offense focused on him, he's good enough to. To give you that. That high upside.
- [40:38]
A
Yeah. So you talk about the matchup and you think, oh, the Bengals, right. Such an easy matchup. And I definitely did think that going. Going in. I do think it is an easy matchup generally speaking. But what did they do? I don't know if Dan, if you had a chance to watch the tape, I did a Lot of double teams. He's running deep routes, he's getting safety help most of the time. And then you look into the numbers and the Bengals give up a ton of big plays in the passing game. The second most completions per game of 20 or more yards, but they're 15th per game. They're right in the middle in. In completions allowed of 20 or more air yards. And they just don't give up a lot of deep balls. They don't see a lot of deep balls. Teams don't throw deep on Cincinnati. Wide receivers have the six lowest a dot against Cincinnati. What's the best way of saying this? Wide receivers against Cincinnati, six lowest adot in the NFL, right. And they give up a lot of yak second most Y per catch. So I think they play this defense and I didn't really notice this beforehand until I watched the tape or of course I would have brought it up on the preview. I think they play this defense where they just try to keep everything in front of them. Obviously it's working really well, but they, they like just. It was a better matchup for underneath guys than it was for Romo dun based. Based on the way they were playing and based on the statistics that we see against their defense.
- [41:51]
D
If you look at the first three targets, they do have it live right now it's 21 level and 21% DJ Moore, 21% Zacchaeus, 11 O'Dunze and Commit. And that's kind of what we've seen a little bit more. Is willing to kind of just go really balanced with that. Whereas early in the year was like 38 O'Dunze and everybody else is at like 10.
- [42:10]
A
All right, so Dunes, I mean, is way ahead of a guy like Tetterol McMillan for rest of season, right? You would think, yeah.
- [42:18]
C
Ahead in a better situation.
- [42:19]
D
Yeah, right. The situation, there's a path to it being really freaking awesome. Whereas, like, for TMAC to give you that kind of of fantasy upside, he just has to do it all on his own. And like, to Adam's point, he hasn't had a lot of huge long plays. He's more of just like a chunk play guy. It's kind of. Tmac is kind of like Drake London early in his career where it's like he can get there through just like accumulating a ton of volume, but he's not. It's going to be really hard for him to get spike weeks because the offense is so bad and he's not like some long burner.
- [42:49]
C
Right.
- [42:50]
A
I do Think if the Bears can be a ground and pound team like the Panthers, then they will do it. So it'll bring us into our next topic which is Manangai. Now I think you know, this is obviously very, very relevant. How many targets are going to be available? Are they going to throw more than 30 times a game? I hope so. Maybe not next week against the Giants or this upcoming week against the Giants but they got Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Green Bay twice, San Francisco still remaining on the schedule. I don't think they're just going to be able to run the ball, not have to chase any points the Bears. But all right, it brings us to flava. Dave, who says buy or sell? Kyle Menangai, will you serve Deandre Swift as the primary ball carrier rest of season? Jacob, dazzle us with a tweet.
- [43:32]
D
So I'm gonna sell. Yeah, let me get the tweet on the screen. I think that it makes the most sense that they'll use both. Right. I think that they have pretty complementary like skill sets. And you, you, Ben Johnson will still want that big play outside zone type of upside the Swift brings with a little bit more speed. But Managa, yeah, I mean hell yeah. He's worked his way into a larger role here. This is the second most rushing yards in a game for a rookie round seven running back dating back to 2000. And you might say round seven rookie running backs like they don't do anything right. So how many of them are there? There's not that many but there were some cool ones. Ahmad Bradshaw you'll find on this list. Peyton Hillis obviously. Isaiah Pacheco, Chris Carson. And then at the very top, the guy who has two more yards than him for the highest game is Bryce Brown. Does anybody remember Bryce Brown in 2012?
- [44:22]
C
Not remember him on the Eagles, dude.
- [44:25]
D
Yeah, vaguely explosive play guy and he just started ripping off big plays. You see two 30 point games here. So I love bringing up these old lists and just looking at.
- [44:35]
A
Yeah, Bryce Brown, let's see he had those two games by the way. On that, on that. So Jacob is displaying Bryce Brown. Common on guy. Bryce Brown is the three most rushing, the three highest, you know, rushing yards in a game for a seventh round rookie in their rookie season. Those are back to back weeks for Bryce Brown.
- [44:54]
D
Yep.
- [44:55]
A
Holy cow. I'm looking at his game log. 19 carries, then 24 carries. Oh my God. What do you have? The next week he had 12 carries for 6 yards and he had 16 carries for 34 yards.
- [45:05]
D
This isn't a Rico daddle Corollary, is it. Is this a tale of caution here, Man?
- [45:10]
A
I don't know, but yeah. You think split? I think. I think first of all, to say Mananga is just going to take the job is to discredit the work that DeAndre Swift had done in his previous three games. He's been on fire, so give him credit. Obviously, they're blocking well. Yeah. Who has more carries rest of season when they're both healthy? What do you guys think?
- [45:32]
D
I'll go Mananga.
- [45:35]
C
I'm also going to go Manangai I. I think when it comes to Mananga, he's a player who we raved about, or I raved about a little bit more during the early part of the spring because I just thought his tape at Rutgers was so good. He was the entire offense there. He reminds me a lot of what's working for Rito Rico Dowdle. He just runs so hard. He runs so low. Great center of gravity, great to create. Even at Rutgers, he was up, up in the charts and creating yards after contact just seemed like the type of player that once he gets the NFL, he's going to bring that kind of attitude. And he has, like, he took that role. And I'll say this, like, Swift has been really good, too. You mentioned it, Adam. I think the blocking's been really good. The scheme's been really good. That combination has opened up stuff for Swift, but it hasn't been perfect. There have been some reps I've seen broken down by Matt Walman, other people out there who have shown, like, in the red zone and things like that. Swift has not been perfect with as far as, like, choosing the right holes and. And flowing with the run. Manangai looked pretty damn perfect out there yesterday in this role, so I would have to bet that he would be getting more touches rest of season. Though I still think I'd rather have Swift in fantasy because of the receiving role.
- [46:38]
D
I'm excited to get in the tape because I think if what Dan's saying is real, that he is just, like, seeing things well and making the most every play, there is a chance that he does usurp him. At the beginning of the year, Dan and I did like, who's this Bucky Irving? And gave like a rating for all the rookies.
- [46:52]
C
Yeah.
- [46:52]
D
And Managa was like, fairly high where it's like, we don't have much confidence in Swift. Like, not that he's a bad player. He can offer the offense something, but it's kind of like Rashad White where it's like there are things that like he could improve on, you know, like with the vision and some of the decisiveness and stuff. And it's like Minaga is just better. Maybe he does become that player.
- [47:12]
A
Yeah, I'm gonna say Swift has more carries rest of season. Not with a ton of confidence. But I, you know, this was Cincinnati. We can't forget that. This is the best matchup for running backs. Maybe the one next week is even better. It's the Giants. So. But, but you know, back to back games against Cincinnati and the Giants is amazing. So if Swift is out again, I mean Manangai, you could rank in the top five. And I wouldn't argue with it for, for week 10. So I, I think Manangai, I think he might be better at the goal line. That's what that. You look at the numbers this year. Swift's actually had some success down by the goal line, but him going up the middle in the near the goal line is not easy. You know, he's. Jacob brought it up, I think last year. He's been pretty bad short yardage back in his career. So my fear is that this conversation in a few weeks is just a bad one. It's. We can't trust the Bears running back. It's the Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle thing. Only it lasts. That would be bad for. For everyone involved.
- [48:15]
C
Yeah.
- [48:15]
A
So that's obviously a scenario here that.
- [48:18]
D
I feel pretty good about. The back that actually that's what I was looking up before you even brought that point up was on running back runs. The only team with a higher success rate is the Bills than the Bears. And it's like that's pretty wild, right? When you have DeAndre Swift as your running back. He's never been a success rate guy.
- [48:34]
A
But any backfield that, that splits is bad. Unless catching a lot of passes, which is not the case with Swift. He's usually in the three catch range. I think. So that I'm just saying like they, they could have a very successful running game, but if they're both doing it, it could look like Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet, you know.
- [48:53]
D
Yeah, no, I got you. That's fair.
- [48:54]
A
All right, next one is from Dolph. He says buy or sell that DK Metcalf is droppable.
- [49:02]
D
So obviously it's a cell.
- [49:06]
A
But it's still a guy worth talking about because he, he's coming off a terrible game. And you know What? He's gotten 34 or more pass attempts from Aaron Rodgers in three straight games and he's gotten five, seven and four targets out of it for eight, 16.5 and 2.6 fantasy points. Let's throw up a little. DK Metcalf. Screenshot here. Another opportunity. He was open in the end zone. A lot of like you look at, there's a lot of guys for Rodgers to throw that ball over, so it's not exactly the easiest play. He's rolling to his right. But Metcalf, that one stood out to me. They also shadowed him with, honestly, a cornerback I really didn't know anything about. What was his name? Number 40 for the Colts, it was Jalen Jones. He. He was on Metcalf a lot. Not a true shadow, but I think still the target for our run rate is pretty low. It's less than 20%. There's. It's a. It's frustrating. I thought it'd be going to be a good game for him. It's a great matchup. Figured they'd have to throw a lot. They did throw a lot, even though they were winning. So. Dan, I'm, I'm disappointed. Obviously, I'm not dropping Metcalf, but last week we talked about him because they had the Sunday night game and I was like, look, he's the number two receiver. I'm just starting him every week. I still feel that way. Another bad game might push that down a little bit.
- [50:22]
C
I was never at that point with him. Jacob and I have kind of discussed him at length this, this season on BTB because he was not a play. He was a player we were avoiding. I, at this point, think he's almost like a touchdown or big player bus type of fantasy start.
- [50:36]
D
So that's what he's been all year. But he just keeps getting it.
- [50:39]
C
He just had keep getting it right. And then it's like when you look at that type of player, I don't think I can slot that into wide receiver too. That feels like more of a wide receiver. Three flex play for me.
- [50:48]
A
Let's see where he ranks this season in full ppr. It's going to be a little bit lower now. He's probably. I can't imagine he's top 24. Oh, he's right there. He's 20.
- [50:59]
C
Yeah, there's just not a lot of. Not a lot of consistent fantasy production from the wide receiver position this year.
- [51:04]
A
He's 20. You got him at 25th overall.
- [51:06]
C
You can't drop him. Yeah.
- [51:08]
A
26 per game. No, you can't drop. You can't drop DK Metcalf. He's. He's got he's averaging the same amount of points as Cortland Sutton and I feel like people view them very differently.
- [51:20]
C
Yeah, because Metcalf's done it mostly on big plays and touchdowns.
- [51:23]
A
What is Cortland Sutton done? He had one catch. It was a big play and a touchdown yesterday.
- [51:27]
C
Yeah, you're right.
- [51:28]
A
It's really just. I can't imagine. I can't believe that he's not getting more targets. That's the thing about Aaron Rodgers. His entire career, he gets his one guy and he fires targets at him and he does it in the red zone, he does it in the end zone. And it's not.
- [51:42]
C
This is a way different offense than anyone he's played in in his career, though he's actually deferred to Arthur Smith in a lot of ways. And it's a lot of just heavy personnel. Run the boot action or run the play action and hit your tight ends.
- [51:54]
D
Cortland Sutton is actually a really good comparison. Like their numbers are nearly identical as I'm looking at them right now. Cortland sun is a higher average depth of target, but I feel like Aaron Rodgers is providing higher quality targets than Bo nix. But like 19 target per hour run rate for Metcalf. I was looking, I was bringing it up as you were talking about. I'm like, wow, that's solo. It's 74th among receivers. And I was looking at some of the names around him, like, oh, there's Sutton again, like lining up right next to him.
- [52:23]
A
Yeah, it's weird. I have to watch the film of that and see if he was being shadowed by Stingley. His touchdown, his only catch of the game was not on Stingley. Just last thing on this, Aaron Rodgers just getting the ball, getting rid of the ball really quickly. Yesterday, 65.7% of Rogers throws were in under two and a half seconds. That was his second highest rate of the season going into Monday Night Football. It's the second highest rate of any quarterback. In week nine, only Mac Jones had a higher rate of throws in less than 2.5 seconds. Buy or sell from me, Matthew Stafford is a league winner. Matthew Stafford has scored 31.6 or more fantasy points in four of his last five games. In six point per passing touchdown leagues, he has QB7 per game in four point. He is QB5 per game in six point. Dan. By ourselves, Matthew Stafford is a league winner.
- [53:12]
C
Bye. I mean, one of my biggest regrets with fantasy this year is Stafford because of these injuries and the situation in the preseason, all the BS around him, you know, not Practicing this and that which seemed to be just management to prepare him for the season. I knew and I was well aware and I think a lot of us knew that Devonte Adams was a pinpoint perfect fit for his skill set as a quarterback and he has been a pinpoint perfect fit and it allows Stafford to do so many more things in the red zone to have just that reliable player but also a player that can win one on ones when Puka is getting. When covered shifted his way or when the game plan is to take away Puka. So he's got two amazing weapons through the best receivers in the league, one of the best play callers in the league. Still the best arm talent or one of the three, four best arm talent in the league. Offensive lines playing well. There's really no reason not to like Stafford right now.
- [54:00]
D
All that I have as pushback is I've got on the screen here the passing touchdown rate and it's 7.7 which is pretty. Yeah, it's much impossibly high. But I mean but if there's ever. Yeah, if there's ever a situation to facilitate. It's like playing with McVey, playing with Devonte Adams, playing with.
- [54:16]
C
He's never had Adams. Adams is such a good fit for him for that scheme and for that offense.
- [54:22]
A
Yeah, he's never had a wide receiver nearly as good as this.
- [54:24]
C
Except for not saying that. I'm not saying that with McVeigh they've never had this situation.
- [54:32]
A
Yes they have. They had, they had Cooper cup who had the greatest.
- [54:36]
C
Cooper cup was not devonte Adams. He's not a one on one winner who can be isolated on the boundary. He's a break off the slot, make a big play type of player.
- [54:45]
A
Does it matter? I mean the fact is he had. He had the best season in receiver history.
- [54:50]
C
Agreed.
- [54:50]
D
Because of stuff.
- [54:53]
C
Well, and a lot of it is Stafford.
- [54:55]
A
Well that way. So Stafford, let me see Stafford's best season in terms of points.
- [55:00]
C
Just stylistically I'm talking about obviously Cooper Cup. I'm not taking anything away. I want to make that clear. His triple crown season, he's a phenot. Was a phenomenal player at the NFL level. Different player though. Completely different player.
- [55:12]
A
Currently averaging 25.4 fantasy points per game. Yeah, six point leagues he averaged I believe 20, 21 was that year with Cup. He averaged 24 points per game that year and he had 4,886 yards, 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. This year he only has two interceptions in eight games. So that's probably the difference there, I hesitate to say that any, any quarterback who like right now Matthew Stafford is negative six, negative six rushing yards and he has one rushing touchdown in his last 10 years. I think something like that. So for them to be league winners would have to be like golf. Last year what happened with golf was second half of the year he was insane. His defense completely fell apart. They one of the worst defenses in football. He was throwing a ton. All these indoor games, like all these, you know, good matchup and even when he's outdoors, I won't even play that card. He was so good. I feel like Stafford will not get to those heights because the Rams have a really good defense right now. It just, it's just that's fair. He's getting that third touchdown or fourth almost every game.
- [56:16]
C
Yeah, I, I think it made a good case about the game script. So I'll say I'll sell on this.
- [56:22]
A
He's so good. Go ahead, Jacob. Sorry.
- [56:24]
D
Well, they've got some games that could turn into shootouts definitely over the next month. They've got San Francisco and then Seattle with that perfect, you know, offensive machine there in Tampa Bay. And then in week 15 they've got Detroit, week 16, Seattle, week 17, Atlanta. So like some of those games could be really high scoring.
- [56:40]
A
All right, this is gonna be our last one. I want to get your thoughts on the Colts wide receivers. I don't really have a buy or sell here, but you know what, I guess buy or sell. Josh Downs and Alec Pierce are must roster players in a 12 team league.
- [56:57]
D
I'll say by must they're like right on the line of musk roster. Like there's, I don't know, it's. They're both really good and I think the coaching and everything that's happening with all the motion and the play action and everything is just going to keep boosting efficiency and they're like perfect at their. And if any one piece of the offense is missing then like they can step into an even bigger role. Like we saw when Downs went down, Alec Pierce saw more looks which is weird because they're not like similar types of players. But it's just like it takes one piece of the offense out and now there's a little bit more available and he can do a lot of things and I think Downs can too. Like if Downs were asked to do more down the field, I think we could see a lot more production that we've seen. But even now in the role, they're fine. If you need to plug them in, they're I think they're good pieces to have on your bench. Like I would rather have an Alec Pierce where I know I can plug him in. It might not, you know, you might get a bad game, but that's going to be the case of pretty much any fill in option. I would rather have that at this point than like somebody where I'm like stashing and hoping that a running back ahead of him gets hurt. If you're like heading into the fantasy playoffs and you want like points, you want wins, I'd rather have that. So I'm gonna say bye. I like these guys a lot. They're playing really well.
- [58:05]
A
I think I would rather have a handcuff running back if it was a high end handcuff running back.
- [58:11]
C
You know, I'm a strong buy on Alec Pierce. Watch the tape last week. Love what I saw and loved his role in the offense as that isolated boundary receiver, like running at either spot on either side of the formation. He's going to get so many of those one on one looks, but he.
- [58:26]
A
Doesn'T get that many targets. Dude, he has two games. He does need them. He has two games with more than five targets. You can't sustain that. He has two red zone targets all year.
- [58:36]
C
The red zone stuff is a little worrisome for sure.
- [58:39]
D
If your average depth of target is 21 yards then maybe like the number of target, you know, like is a little bit different in terms of what, what we think you need.
- [58:48]
C
It's not just like vertical shots though too. Like he is isolated and he has a million one on ones a game. But he's also running like comebacks off of that and outcuts. Like he's just a very difficult matchup and he's getting one on one a lot of the times off coverage with no safety.
- [59:03]
D
That was the, that was the second thing I was gonna say is like if you're a freaking basketball player, you're a power forward out here who's playing against 5 foot 10 dudes. Like you're just getting one on one all the time. You have a 41 inch vertical, you're super big and strong. Like yeah, like you could probably be a little more efficient with your targets than most people.
- [59:18]
A
I think he's more of a small forward. Yeah, I don't know.
- [59:21]
D
I mean if you're talking like NBA, sure.
- [59:26]
A
Well, I think you're gonna like his tape this week too. I, I watched his targets. There were 13 of them. Remember Daniel Jones threw 50 passes in this game and I think alec Pierce ran 50 routes, so that's always going to boost the production. But he even made some sick moves, including maybe this is like one of his best routes of the game. I didn't watch all the routes. Like I said, he destroyed Joey Porter on a double move, got wide open for a deep ball. Jones missed him. I don't mean that to disparage Jones. People miss guys on deep balls all the time. But yeah, he can play.
- [59:55]
C
But this was the first, this was one of the first few like bad weather games. And it wasn't even bad weather. Just not perfect dome games for the Colts offense, which I think will impact them down the stretch, but they don't have that many. They have the Chiefs in a couple weeks and that's basically maybe Seahawks. That's it. Everything else is in a dome or in Jacksonville. So for that reason alone, I think the offense will get back on track.
- [60:18]
D
Also, he doesn't have any touchdowns yet, which is crazy because the offense is like a touchdown producing machine. And he, like I said, is this big guy who can win with big plays, can win in the red zone and stuff. Like, like we're talking about him as if like he is he a fantasy starter.
- [60:32]
C
Is.
- [60:32]
D
You know, like even though he hasn't scored the touchdowns last year he had seven touchdowns in a smaller role and a worse offense.
- [60:38]
C
Yeah, I think what wise guy said is, is spot on. Like look up Jones's stats. He's another dome qb. Daniel Jones has been so much better in domes his entire career dating back to the time with the Giants. It's an arm. I'm not even going to say it, but he's definitely a better skill set fit indoors.
- [60:53]
A
Would have just been cheaper for the Giants to build a dome, split it with the jets, then like pay Daniel Jones and have all the, all the coaches and GMs are gonna have to fire and all that. It's just, just built a dome. Would have fixed everything.
- [61:07]
C
Yeah, that would have fixed it all for us for sure.
- [61:10]
D
Higher yard per hour run rate this year. Alec Pierce or a Mechag Buka?
- [61:16]
C
Gotta be Alec Pierce, right?
- [61:18]
D
That's right. Alec Pierce or Devonte Adams.
- [61:21]
C
Oh, definitely gotta be fierce across the board for these.
- [61:23]
D
Alec Pierce. You're right again. Alec Pierce or Michael Pittman.
- [61:27]
A
Pittman.
- [61:28]
C
Yes.
- [61:28]
D
Alec Pierce.
- [61:31]
C
You don't play this game as good as Adam does. Adam throws in. Trick question. Trick, you know, trick answers.
- [61:36]
D
There's no trick. There's no tricking with Alec Pierce. You just throw him the ball, he catches it and he pushes you down.
- [61:41]
C
Fair enough.
- [61:42]
A
So just to sum that you like him better than Josh Downs? If you were going to pick one?
- [61:46]
D
Unfortunately, yeah. Like, I don't like anyone better than Josh Downs. But for fantasy right now. Yeah.
- [61:51]
A
Let me tell you, man, the Colts have put together a pretty talented roster offensively.
- [61:57]
C
Oh, yeah.
- [61:57]
A
Have a great day and check out all the beyond the box score. Then we're gonna get Jacob on our Wednesday FFT episode, too, to drop a little advanced knowledge on you.
- [62:05]
C
Let's go.
- [62:06]
A
Looking forward to that. Talk to you next time on Fantasy Football.
- [62:18]
D
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- [62:21]
A
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D
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D
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C
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C
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B
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A
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