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Adam
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Jacob
When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the.
Dan
Secure messaging app that brings the whole group together.
Jacob
Use polls to settle dinner plans. Send event invites and pin messages so.
Dan
No one forgets mom 60th and never miss a meme or milestone.
Jacob
All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone. Learn more@WhatsApp.com this is fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports. What a play.
Adam
Can you believe this?
Jacob
No, I can't.
Dan
It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays on his feet.
Adam
This is going to go the distance.
Jacob
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Dan
All right, what's going on, everybody? Welcome to beyond the Box Score advance advanced stats from simple people who cannot speak. It is Monday, October 6th. This is BetMg. This is Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook board in Vegas. Welcome to BetMGM Guys. Nice to see you.
Adam
How you doing today, Adam?
Dan
I thought I was doing great. The show didn't start that way. But no, I'm doing very well. I've been listening a little bit to the new Taylor Swift album. How you guys feeling about the new Taylor Swift album?
Adam
Couldn't tell you anything about the new Taylor Swift album. I don't know if I've ever. I don't know if I've. I've listened, obviously. I've heard on the radio all her big songs and stuff and maybe like halftime shows or whatever. I don't know if. I definitely have never listened to an album of Taylor Swift not that I knocking it or anything. Not gonna yuck anyone else's yums, I guess. Just not my kind of music.
Jacob
I don't have time for that. I've been watching Michael Carter film.
Dan
Yeah. Oh, boy. Yeah, I watched Michael Carter film before the game, but after I put in my fab bits and I had a ton of regret about how much fab I spent on him. But we got everything we could have possibly asked for. I just don't know if he's going to keep that role because he's just not going to be a good rusher. What did the film tell you, Jacob?
Jacob
Yeah, I don't know if I would agree necessarily. I think he did fine with what was there. I know people have had this take that like he wasn't efficient and it's just like that can kind of happen game to game. He's been somebody who's been good in the past at creating on his own and then he also like, can play on passing downs. And so I think like, if anything, look at what just happened with Adonai Mitchell after he had the blunder dropping the ball into the end zone for his team to basically lose a game that they had no business losing because his teammate, running back did that. Like, to me, it's like Carter has the skill set to just be a three down back and at times they were treating him that way in this game. So I'm only encouraged by what we saw.
Dan
Okay. I just hope Bam Knight doesn't start taking carries from him. I never really thought they were going to give D. Mercado a bigger role. I. I knew. I really felt confident they were going to give the audition to Michael Carter, which is why I was aggressive. But I just, I have no confidence in him being efficient. This is one of the worst defenses in football and he couldn't really do anything against them. But they don't really have a good run game either. So that's just that. Anyway, I am not a Swifty. I'm getting a lot of Adams a Swifty. Adams a Swifty. I'm absolutely. You can offer me free Taylor Swift concert tickets first row. And I would turn them down. I like her. She's fine. My wife, I would go to that.
Adam
I don't even know her music. I'd still go to that just because it'd be cool.
Dan
I don't like concerts that much, but first row. Yeah. No, I'm not. It's too much of a drive. If it were next door, I'd go, but like, where am I Going. Going to Giant State. I'm going to Meadowlands. Come on now. I'm not doing that. But she's. She's wonderful. But I'm not a swifty. Anyway, Dan is a Drake May, even though he didn't have a great fantasy game, only 12.1 fantasy points, but he did get a big win in Buffalo. 23:20. Let's talk about Sunday Night Football. What stood out to you? Dan Schneier. From a fantasy standpoint, the biggest, obviously.
Adam
Takeaway is Stefan Diggs, and his role continues to grow. That's two weeks in a row now for Diggs. I think one thing with Diggs that's really interesting to me just from watching the broadcast and then I rewatched the tape this morning because I had to watch Drake May tape. This was his career game. This was his moment of coming out. I know fantasy wise it wasn't great, but film wise and actual quarterback wise, it was unbelievable. And the key thing I noticed was Diggs is getting in and out of his breaks really well. Kind of reminded me of the early days in Houston last year before he got hurt. And he's doing a great job of matching his skill set with Josh McDaniel system. What do I mean by that? He's doing a great job of turning these short in breaking or short outbreaking routes into yards after the catch by kind of setting up his run after the catch before he even catches the football. And it matches Drake May really well too, because Drake may rips the ball in there. He's one of the highest velocity throwers we have in the NFL right now, and that helps when you're trying to maximize yards after the catch. Obviously they had the broken play downfield as well where he just kind of sends Diggs toward the sideline and just throws an absolute dime of a ball toward him, leading him toward the sideline. I just think that connection will continue to grow as long as Diggs can stay healthy. At this point, with how high I am on May and what I'm seeing from Diggs, I think he can be a wide receiver. 1.
Dan
Well, he only played 50% of the snap, so we're going to need more of a snap share because he had about a 50% target per route run rate, which is insane. They said they were going to increase his workload. They didn't, but he got targeted on half his routes.
Jacob
I was gonna say 40% target share, so I'll take it like he. It's super focused on him right now. And like Dan said, and we've we noted this last week on beyond the Box War too. He looks good. He really does look crisp and is getting open and is cutting really well. And we saw some of that last year too, but it was almost all in this like short yardage role for the Texans. And then you don't know how he's going to be coming back from the injury. But I think he's looked so good. He's working down the field. And my gosh, Drake May looked phenomenal last night. That was so fun, dude.
Adam
It was so fun to watch. And to be clear, I meant for PPR leagues. Full PPR could be a borderline one two.
Dan
Okay. I mean, I suppose he could. It's not like wide receiver is so great. Could he be better than Marvin Harrison Jr. Absolutely. Could he be better than Cortland Sutton? Probably not.
Adam
In some ways, yes, though. Like they're moving their offense by getting the ball out fast to him and putting him in spots where he can create after the catch. Like it's, it's really. They're using. In my mind, they're using the past game as an extension of the run game, which has pretty much been the case for Josh McDaniels his entire career as a play caller. But I think it's even more so the case now because A the Patriots are much better pass blockers than run blockers, their offensive line. And B, I don't really feel like anyone in their run game is that successful right now. I guess you can say Stevenson to something, right?
Dan
This is the big storyline, I think for people coming out of this game just based on social media. They're pissed off. Andre fumbles again, Antonio Gibson fumbles and leaves with a knee injury. And Travion Henderson has another bad game with eight total touches. And how, how patient should we be, Jacob on Travion Henderson are? Would we consider dropping him at this point? He's 97% rostered. Drop, drop. He's not doing anything. He's useless. He's completely useless right now.
Adam
What the hell are you picking up for him?
Jacob
That's what I was curious. Do you have any ideas of somebody you're like aggressively going to get that you'd rather have right now, waiver wire this week or whatever?
Adam
Bam Night. You're gonna drop him for Bam Night? That's what we're talking about?
Dan
Well, no, because it doesn't have to be for running back, but we. Look, we only have two teams on by this week. They're not, they're not necessarily. I mean, Phil, they're Minnesota and Houston, whatever. But it could be anyone. It could be Calvin Ridley who's 73% rostered and has been dropped in some leagues. It could be Michael Carter. Michael Carter is 66% roster.
Adam
You're talking about shallow leagues potentially on.
Dan
CBS shallow leagues, but on sleeper on on Yahoo on ESPN. Most many leagues are about half the leagues. You're going to find Michael Carter available, I think, you know, could be a quarterback that you need as a bye week replacement. Tell me why I should keep Travion Henderson.
Jacob
Yeah, let me. I'm gonna share my screen here. We've got the backfield splits after the Antonio Gibson injury and it was a 63 snap rate for Henderson. So if it's down to just two players like you hopefully don't have as much to worry about in terms of the, you know, shenanigans that we get from McDaniels. I don't think it's encouraging what we've seen from him so far and the fact that they like, obviously the fantasy points haven't been there, but also like they haven't wanted to get him on the field. Even with these guys repeatedly making mistakes, you know, like again fumbles from Gibson and Stevenson in this game, it seems like everything that could be happening to get Travan on the field is happening and it's still kind of been a struggle to get him out there. So I get it. But just like 63 snap rate, 64 route rate in this game, if that type of role is available to him in time, if there are, if we continue to get mistakes from Armandre, just, just getting it down to two guys I think is enough for me to hold him because if he does, if the train starts rolling like people are going to pick up steam like we saw this preseason and get real excited again. The offense looks better than we expected. The Lions playing better than expected and Dragon is playing so well that I think it's going to be tough to find somebody that has the upside that Henderson does on the waiver wire.
Dan
I agree. I'm not dropping him. I don't want to drop him. I think, look, I've seen in our super Flex league, Jacori Kraski Merit was dropped this past week. You know, people get into a pinch with their roster crunch, with bye weeks and all and injuries and these types of things and it is hard to make a case because the other thing about Henderson is when he has played, he hasn't even been good. You know, he's not. He's averaging like less than four yards per carry. It's not like he's setting the world.
Adam
I was gonna add that. Like I. I'm just a little bit. Of all the rookies we've watched, I've seen even in a limited role at times, specifically last week in week four, some good flashes from RJ Harvey, who's been another disappointment. But on the Henderson front, I feel like he's just looked the worst of all the rookies. Like what I saw at Ohio State and I know we saw it at one point in the preseason with that long touchdown catch. Just haven't seen that level of burst with him. And I think part of that is the run scheme, part of that is the run blocking but. And maybe the situations they're putting him in. But I'm still waiting to kind of see that level of player that I saw on his tape in college.
Dan
Who's your favorite Bills wide receiver rest of season? Khalil Shakira. Khalil Shakira has three straight games within eight out below two yards.
Adam
Yeah, they're using him in a really interesting way this year. Like, can I say Kincaid? I'm joking.
Dan
No. He's the next topic though because he's tight end 2. I think.
Adam
Is he.
Jacob
I think Jake 3.
Adam
3. I know he can't beat Ferguson.
Jacob
Waller has more points per game, but that's only through two games. He might be tied in too.
Dan
I think he's tight end too. Wow. He's having quite a season. But. Yeah, no, but just I. I guess I'll take Shakir in half and full. I'll take Coleman and non ppr.
Adam
I. I guess I, I'd probably go Shakir across the board.
Jacob
Board.
Adam
I don't even know. It's the same offense we saw last year. Right. Like they don't need to throw the receivers and they're not going to.
Dan
So Jacob, are you buying Dalton Kincaid as a must start going forward?
Jacob
No, but he's playing better than he has in the past and like there is upside. Like it's. He's a fine guy to have in your starting lineup because he's getting targets in high leverage situations, you know and he, he can get. This offense is so good that he can continue to have games like he's had. We're definitely running hot. Like I think that this is probably going to come down to earth. If you look at his, you know, route rate, the percentage of the Dropbox that he's running right on is much, much lower than the other tight ends that are around him and scoring so I'm totally fine selling high on him. We'll get into that a little bit later in relation to some of these tight ends that you might be able to buy. But yeah, for me it would be Shakir. He did have the highest route rate and he had a 30 target share. He's the only one I would feel like any reasonable confidence in ever putting in a lineup. Coleman is like a good guy to have in best ball type of formats, but if you like have to click a player.
Dan
Shakir, keep in mind with Kincaid, he was playing through two knee injuries last year, so he's healthy now. He's playing well among 30 tight ends with 15 or more targets. Dalton Kincaid leads all of tight ends in yards per target, yards per out run and big play rate. He's third in yards per catch, seventh in target for outrun. But as, as Jacob alluded to, 23rd out of those 30 tight ends in routes run. My favorite Kincaid stat though, but I think it's completely fluky. He has a 9.3 yard ADOT, which is pretty high for a tight end and he has an 83.3% catch rate which is third best at the position or fourth best at the position. So just these are the types of things that aren't going to last, but at least you're getting a healthy, dynamic player, good option in the passing game. All right, what's coming up on beyond the Box Score this week? Jacob?
Jacob
We've got a lot of cool stuff coming up on beyond the Box Score. If you don't know, we do this show throughout the week, not just on this Monday recap. So Tuesday, Dan and I are moving the show up an hour. We're going to be starting that one at noon Eastern time. If you want to jump in the live stream and chat with us. The same start time as this Monday show. Now, this week, the past two weeks, we've done like an offensive line overview. This week we're doing a coaching overview. Like a deep dive into route concepts, run schemes, and like the specific ways the players are being put in position to succeed or fail. Really excited to recap, like Liam Cohen versus Steve Spagnolo, our Monday night treat that we get here. Really excited to dive into that one with Dan. Gonna dig into Emeka Egbuca too. For sure, for sure.
Dan
So what do you make of this stuff? That Emeka Buka low separation score.
Jacob
You're gonna have to wait till Tuesday.
Dan
Give me a little. All right.
Jacob
Fin is awesome. That's what I think. Like, it's obvious that he's awesome. I've said he was awesome the whole way along the way. Like he's one of Dan and I's favorite sleepers for a reason. He's. He's really good. The situation's really good. We'll get into the separation store stuff.
Adam
Okay.
Jacob
All right, Wednesday is usage.
Adam
Big topic on fantasy Twitter right now. People taking a lot of heat.
Jacob
I know. Yeah. Wednesday. Wednesday is a usage report. So everything you need to know, like every team, every position through five weeks, shifting backfields, red zone rates, first three target rates, all the good stuff will be on that Wednesday show. And then Thursday is mastering matchups with Ryan Heath. There have been some great call outs on that show lately, like Mason Taylor and Rashid Shahid. This last week he got the. The Ashton Genti breakout. So super smart guy, we got on helping us on the Thursday show.
Dan
All right, let's do our news and notes real quick. Actually, I lied to you. Let's take a break real quick and when we come back, news and notes and get into our big topics. Snap shares. Fantasy cops. Little bonus fantasy cops for you today.
Adam
Oh, I love a good fantasy cops bonus. Let's go.
Dan
All right, we gotta settle, we gotta settle a middle school debate on I'm.
Adam
Bad cop as always.
Dan
All right, we'll be right back on fft.
Adam
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Dan
Have some new quarterbacks next week or the week after. We'll take a look at Cincinnati. They haven't ruled out a quarterback change. Minnesota Kevin o' Connell wouldn't say who would start after their bye week, so we will see if it's another quarterback on the Bengals roster. Guys, I don't want the change for the sake of Jamar Chase and T. Higgins and whatever. I just. Browning obviously is turning the ball over too much, but I think Brett Rippon is their backup. I just.
Adam
Oh God.
Dan
Yeah, It's. I mean, I want them to trade for someone. I don't know. I guess we can react to it when it happens.
Adam
I don't want them to trade for someone because trade for someone is not realistic. Everybody always says to trade for someone, trade for someone. What kind of quarterback can come in, not know the system at all and play right away? I know it happened kind of with Baker Mayfield when McVeigh claimed him for one week. And it wasn't really a huge, expansive playbook. Like, I think that's even worse. I think it's just Browning or nothing.
Jacob
All right.
Dan
And running back. So Antonio Gibson left with the knee injury. Omarion Hampton is going to get more tests on his foot slash ankle and Tyler Bidet left with a shoulder injury. Wide receiver Darius Slayton has a hamstring injury. Xavier Worthy optimistic that he's going to play tonight. He better if he doesn't play. If you have a roster spot to play with, you got like Diami Brown you could pick up. You could pick up juju Smith, Schuster, maybe Marquis Brown. Tyquan Thornton certainly would be much better if if Worthy didn't play. I don't have any tight end injuries. Offensive line, you know, the Eagles offensive line has not been exactly what we expected it to be. And Landon Dickerson left in the first half. And we'll see the severity of that injury. That's about it. There were some guys who left but came back. Baltimore or Denver. Excuse me. Denver offensive lineman Ben. Ben Powers left with an injury. I've had so many typos in one set in, in one sentence. Instead of Denver offensive lineman, I would. I would have typed D, E, N, O, L, Ben Powers. I put Baltimore outfielder like B, A, L, O, F Ben Bowers. So I just completely threw myself off there. Okay. And on defense, Seattle got a little beat up. Colts got a little beat up. They get Arizona next week, Seattle's at Jacksonville. Matt Milano played last night for the Bills, but he left with an injury. Chargers defensive tackle to Sean Hand left in the first half. Really was very light injury week.
Adam
Yeah. Thank God.
Dan
Finally, Thomas, do we have that tweet of. I have it here, actually. All right, I'm going to. I'll go through it in a second. Throw it up. But before I do that, let's get to some snap counts here. And I don't have much, so I'll just run through Juwan Johnson with Taysom Hill and Foster Morrow back. I don't even know if Foster Morrow played. Actually. Johnson played 85% of the snaps. That was great. But he's starting to fade a little bit. See if he can bounce back so you can stay on the field for. For that full Snapchat, basically. RJ Harvey played 15 snaps. Very disappointing. Smajay P. Ryan, the past catching running back for the Bengals. I'm wondering if they're starting to give him more work on first and second down. He played 19 snaps on first and second down. They were trailing so big that I imagine they were just throwing a lot. But he did play eight first, eight snaps on first and second down in the second quarter, which is more than usual for him. It just really. Are they going to take carries away from Chase Brown? You know, he basically needs every touch he can get. Tajie Spears only played 17 snaps in his first game back. We'll see if they work him in more next week. And Zach Charbonnet played more than Ken Walker. All right, so on this topic of snap counts and other stats, Jacob, is there anything you'd like to highlight?
Jacob
We've got on the screen here, like 1 through 24 in terms of snap rates. I. I am worried a little bit about Chase Brown. Like, if he starts to lose. Yeah. The role, then, like, what's left? And I. He's, you Know, it doesn't seem like P. Ron would be somebody who takes work, but he's been better, you know, slightly better. Yeah, we'll see on that one. I'm a little worried because, like, they have some other tough matchups coming up before the bye week and it's just like if he, if it slips away from him, then it's like you're truly left with nothing. Whereas.
Adam
Right.
Jacob
Yeah, but I don't have any hope for Camara. But like Brown is like, if he can hold on to it long enough, then like they have some better matchups. Maybe Burrow gets back at some point, you know, like, maybe you make it through. And so like that's. It's just. You'd be hoping that he'd still be in this like 70 snap rate range, but he's. He's really not been. So. Yeah, you can see here, like running backs 13 through 24 in snap rates. No, not a whole lot. Like, Ginty played a ton in the first half. He had a 90 snap right in the first half and that came down because of the blowout. The Seattle backfield continues to be frustrating. I thought Ken Walker looks. I thought Kenneth Walker looked so good out of the gate, but then it just ended up being the same thing.
Dan
But as I pointed out yesterday, he did get a first and goal carry from the seven. He got a second and goal carry from the five. And then they threw it. Then Charbonnet came in on third down, which is going to happen a lot. And they threw a touchdown on the next play. Play.
Jacob
So he likes to create explosive runs that get them into the red zone and they take himself out because he's just a good guy, you know.
Adam
But it kills us for fantasy because most of the reduction is just coming from running the ball, which we know just doesn't help us enough for sure.
Jacob
I mean, freaking 81% snap rate for Rashad White. Like they just.
Adam
Awesome.
Jacob
Yeah, Just let him do everything. Receiving and everything too. They get down to the goal line and they're just like run behind Tristan Worfs and it's a touchdown, you know?
Adam
Yeah, Jacob and I. Jacob and I ranked Javante Williams is like a top 25, I think who came in at 25 or 26 player rest of season. I actually think that might be too low at this point. Like I just. It continues week after week after week and they're just scoring touchdowns and he looks good and there's really no reason not to like him at this point.
Dan
And they were missing four offensive linemen.
Adam
And who cares? It doesn't matter. And those guys are going to come back and it'll be even better.
Jacob
Yeah, I've got a buddy who's beyond the box score pilled and he's like so out of control with the Javante Williams stuff. He's like, if someone offered me like Saquon Barkley for my Javante, I would say no. If somebody offered me, I don't know if I hate that Josh Jacobs for my, for my Javante, I would say no.
Adam
I'm so mad I didn't trade for Javante in every league.
Jacob
The only thing I had to push back is that this snap rate is like different than anything we've literally ever seen for Germane Williams dating back to North Carolina. So that's like seven point of data of him splitting backfields and he's never had a snap rate above 55% in a season ever.
Adam
That's a good point.
Jacob
And so like it is a battle of attrition. It is a marathon, not a sprint. Like I don't know if he can do this all year long. It's. We often see snap rates taper off as the year goes on or players get hurt.
Adam
That's a good point. That's a really good point because he did share that backfield with Michael Carter. I'm trying to see the contract situation with him. It's a one year deal.
Dan
Yeah.
Adam
Like almost the Matt, like I think they will run him into the ground from that standpoint. Just it's a matter of if he can take that, if he can take it. And that's a great point by you. So maybe it is.
Jacob
I'm not even saying that like he can't do it or he's not built for it or anything. I'm just saying like if they're. That's the only logical reason I could come up with to be like, no, you know, he's not worth more than Saquon Bark because who has it was sacred on Jacobs is like those guys offensive lines are banged up and playing right crap. Whereas like this Dallas offensive line, if it could tell they could be like one of the best in the whole league.
Adam
Right.
Jacob
The situation just seems better.
Adam
Yep. And their offense.
Dan
Every week I trade him for Barkley.
Jacob
Yeah.
Adam
I think most would and I think honestly I think most would trade him for Jacobs too. I just, I think I would probably do it for Barkley, not do it for Jacobs, but I don't even know for sure if I would want to do it for Barkley at this point. They score every week. The Cowboys, they're one of the best off. They're one of the only offenses we can rely on to score touchdowns all the time.
Dan
It's pretty crazy. I really thought they, it was a good chance they were just going to have a bad offense. They had kind of a bad offense last year.
Adam
Never would back one of the things.
Dan
Well, last year they really were not good. They were something like around 20th points per game with Dak Prescott.
Adam
Small sample size though, right? Only half a season.
Dan
Yeah.
Adam
Okay. Okay.
Dan
He, his play action rate is way up this year. His play action rate was super low last year. Obviously. That's one of the things that, I don't know, people say is like a cheat code in the NFL is you want to, you want to use play action. You got to be able to run the ball to do it successfully. And they were toiling with stupid Zeke at the beginning of the year. They weren't even giving their best running back the touches that he needed. Now they're, they actually have a running game. They're using play action perfectly. And they've had two huge games offensively in a row without CD Lamb. It's extremely impressive. So I, I am so excited about Dak Prescott going forward and Javante. I have on at least five teams, been very lucky that I took a chance on that.
Jacob
Few other few other things I would point out here is The Derek Henry snapper, 68% even in a game where they're getting blown out, really surprised me and end up being able to survive the week. For fantasy. Michael Carter, 59 is good, but like I said, like there were times where they were treating him like the every down back. His snapper in the first quarter was like 90. I don't think he's gonna have that role, but like, I think this role could continue to grow. And they fed him touches. Bam. Knight, he got the touchdown because he came in and just, just like randomly in the second quarter, came in as a relief option and ripped off two explosive plays right away and got him down to the one yard line. And they're like, all right, well, yeah, finish it off. You earned it. He had one touch the rest of the game. I, I, you know, like, I doubt that he matters maybe, but it seems like he's just kind of the third back. And so like if D. Mercado, if he does see his role scale back at all because of the blunder this week, then it's like there might be a lot left for Michael Carter. It might be like a 70 snapper.
Adam
If they can trust him on passing down, I don't see why they wouldn't. He's done what he's been.
Jacob
Yeah, that's what he's been in the past. Like when he was a Javante at unc. That's what he was when he was with the Jets. That's what it was.
Adam
That's an interesting point. And I saw Gannon just ream out DeMarcado on the sideline of that play, which, yeah, saw a lot of people defending going against Gannon for defending D Micardo. I'm team Ganon on that. If my job's on the line as a head coach and I may only get one head coach job in my life, I'm perfectly fine with that coach reaming out a player who literally cost his team the game.
Jacob
Two more shout outs real quick.
Dan
Hold on, hold on one second.
Jacob
Okay, okay, okay.
Dan
It wasn't like he was showboating, right? It was just a mental error. And so I might be. So he made a mistake, but he, I don't think he was showing up, you know. You don't think he was showing up the game or the other.
Adam
No, I don't think he was showboating.
Dan
I, I'm sorry, but am I crazy? I looked at it so many times. I really feel like the ball was over the goal line.
Adam
I also thought it kind of crossed the line as he's extending the ball. I kind of felt like the nose of the ball was at the line.
Dan
At least that's what I thought. I, I, I haven't seen an angle where it's so clearly out of his hand before he crosses the goal line. I'm not sure it was the right call. Obviously he made a huge mistake, but I don't think that he needed to be berated like that. But different coaches have different methods also. Jacob, before you go on, I got to tell our football fans to bring that playoff energy to their pro football bets all season long. This pro football boost pack from BetMGM gives you three ways to boost your payout on a winning bet like Giants over Saints. Just log into your BetMGM account to receive your boost pack and then place any pro football bet and apply one of the tokens. And make sure you bet up to the minimum stake odds and legs specified on the token. If your boosted bed hits, you'll score a bigger payout. From opening kickoffs to game winning drives, this pro football boost pack is your ticket to unforgettable moments this season. Don't wait on the Sidelines join the action with BetMGM. BetMGM and Game Sense. Remind you to play responsibly. See betmgm.com for terms 21+only. All right, back to you, sir.
Jacob
Yeah. Last two are Rico Dowdle, 68%. I thought he played really great. And even though the rookie Trevor ETN was also playing really great, I thought and has played well all year. It was like basically all Dowdle and then James Cook still 70 snapper. I know this is a frustrating game, but the coach, specifically Joe Brady, the offensive coordinator, was like, I've got to get Ray Davis more involved. Like, it's not okay that Ray Davis has ended up out of the game plan. It's just because I've been riding James Cook because he's been so good and then this is what he gets. 10 snap rate, Ray Davis, two touches. You know, it's like, I thought this was an encouraging takeaway for James Cooks. We've seen James Cook snap right, all the way down to like 40%, 50 and stuff. He's regularly been in the 70, 80 this year and you know, 18, 20 touches this year, which is really, really different than where he's been in the past, which is really relevant because if you look at fantasy points or touch at running back over the past few seasons, he's right up there with Devon Hn and Jameer Gibbs as the absolute best in the league. So definitely this, this is a good takeaway for Cook.
Dan
I don't know if, I'm sorry if you said this specifically, but two games in a row now with a 70% snap share. So that's two consecutive games this year that he's done that. He did that one time in the first three years of his career. So just very good usage. Unfortunately, only one catch in this game that's he's going to probably need. I don't know if he needs, but I'd like to see him get two to four, let's say three per game to be. To really have a better floor in ppr. This is a horrible game fantasy wise for James Cook.
Adam
Yeah.
Dan
All right. Should we go to the big topics?
Jacob
Can we do a random bill victory lap?
Adam
Yeah. You earned it, Jacob. You earned it.
Jacob
For the people. The show. The show. This is like why you go beyond the box score.
Adam
So. Yeah.
Jacob
Bill, first play. Thank you. Thank you. Bill was the first player named on our beyond the box score rookie gym show back in June. In 2023, it was Pukinaku. In 2024, it was Tyrone Tracy. So maybe play the applause again, My gosh, yes, it's a victory lap, but also this is truly an example.
Dan
That's the name of the week.
Adam
Yeah.
Dan
All right. Sorry, I didn't have the applause queued up.
Jacob
This is also an example of why you go beyond the box score. Like people were worried about his usage through four weeks. We're concerned with the Chris Rodriguez stuff and like looking the box where Chris Rodriguez being above him and carries and stuff. If you listen to the show like you knew that the breakup was coming at some point and there were reasons to believe that it's not just that he was playing awesome, but also like we pointed out in weeks three and four, he had as many pass protection reps as Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez combined. The commanders were like building out this role for him to be a full time player. I wasn't expecting it to come this quick, honestly. But here we are and it's really, really exciting. Now he's running back one in fantasy points per touch on the year at 1.28 PPR points per touch. Jonathan Taylor is next at 1.1. The league average is 0.86. So he's 45 above the league average. He's running back one in yards after contact per rush. Another thing that like, you know, box score watching might tell you is that he can't catch passes. He didn't really do that in college. He looked great in this game. They've designed a screen target to him in each of the past three games. He has more targets than McNichols and Rodriguez combined since the Eckler injury. So everything seems to be shaping up for this to be a three down roll. We aren't quite there yet in terms of usage. I think at a 49 snap rate in this game. But we're getting close. He started the game, he did have the fumble, but he came back and played after that. I think we're getting close to this being like a three down back who maybe loses some two minute drill work and stuff like that. But in a really good offense that has a scrambling quarterback to scare defenses and the run game, that's number one, it's success rate on running back runs this year. Like it's, it's working really, really well. What Cliff Kingsbury is doing, seeing is.
Dan
Believing that guy is terrific makes it well.
Adam
That's the thing. That's the other thing. It's like in addition to everything Jacob just mentioned, which is correct about how good his situation is, like they haven't figured out Cliff's system yet. It's clear people thought, oh, year two. They'll figure it out. Nope. You can't figure out anything with Jaden Daniels, your quarterback. He's also really talented. That's the additional thing. Like, we could see that he looks really good on tape. And that's the big thing. You just pair good situation with good talent and that usually leads to a lot of fantasy success.
Dan
And we got this bonus topic here. I asked for four big topics. Got this fifth one here. Why is Jacob Gibbs pitching for the Toronto Blue Jays?
Adam
Does that kind of look like Jacob?
Jacob
People are so obsessed with finding doppelgangers. I literally, like, I heard, yes. A such a wide variety of different ones.
Dan
Who else?
Jacob
Actors and stuff. The. The Twilight guy.
Adam
Yeah, I don't know who that is.
Jacob
The. The guy. Did you see Batman?
Dan
Did you see the. The. The new Batman? Like the newish one?
Jacob
Pattinson, right?
Dan
Yeah. Robert Pattinson.
Jacob
People say Jake Gyllenhaal. People say the guy.
Dan
Jake Gyllenhaal.
Jacob
Gyllenhaal. Sorry. People say the guy from the bear.
Adam
I could see Robert Pattinson. Definitely not Jeremy out. Jeremy Allen, whatever his name is.
Dan
That guy, the bear.
Adam
I see Germ. I see Robert Pattinson. More than. More than the bear guy.
Dan
You're talking about the main character in the bear, Jeremy Allen White.
Jacob
I could see when he had long press guy. They're like, that looks like Jacob. Depressed guy.
Dan
You do not look like Jake Gyllenhaal, by the way. Jake Gyllenhaal is like a body.
Adam
Gyllenhaal is not a good take. And I don't think Jeremy Allen White is either. But I do like the thing.
Jacob
I told you. They're all over the place. It's like anybody who has bags under their eyes, that's probably me.
Dan
Look like Jeff Van Gundy. All right, we're gonna take a break. Come back with the fantasy cops and our four big topics after this.
Adam
This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Listening to this podcast. Smart move. Being financially savvy.
Jacob
Smart move.
Adam
Another smart move. Having State Farm help you create a competitive price when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling. Just another way to save with a personal price plan. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts and savings and.
Dan
Eligibility vary by state.
Jacob
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Adam
It'S football season and you gotta keep up with the action. Listen in to Pushing the Pile, part of CBS Sports Podcast network with Mike Renner, Kyle Long, and now me, JP Acosta for smart analysis of everything between the lines. With four episodes episodes a week, Sunday.
Dan
Night recaps, film review, power tiers and weekly previews, you will know ball.
Adam
Stick with us until one team lists the Lombardi download and follow Pushing the.
Dan
Pile on Apple podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found.
Adam
Okay. Throwback Orange. I love all of those. Yeah, we need more.
Dan
This one's from Alan. He says, hey, fantasy cops. My son Reed is in eighth grade. During class, one of his quote unquote friends got on his laptop and dropped jsn. Dropped jsn, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill from his team. He talked to the commissioner. He couldn't figure out how to edit the rosters to fix this. The commissioner sent a note that anyone that picks those players up would be out of the league. But it didn't work. Waivers run and the commissioner grabs Kelsey for my son. But another player grabs JSN and refuses to give him back. This is a huge mess right now. How do you suggest we unravel this? And more importantly, what punishment should this culprit be penalized with?
Adam
I mean there's a super, super simple and easy solution for unraveling this mystery. Go to Commissioner Tools and figure out how to drop players from other teams rosters and add them back to another team's roster. This is not some like mystery that can't be solved. Like I'm sorry, you don't know that. I'm not, I'm not trying to like knock you or say that I'm better than you or anything because that did come off bad. And I take that back, everything I just said. So let me walk that back a little. Go to Commissioner Tools. You have this option in commission.
Dan
Yeah, but it might not be playing on CBS wherever.
Adam
Every site has this option. So you just need to do a little digging and you'll find it in Commissioner Tools. So you could just put the players back on the roster.
Dan
And as far as wants to step.
Jacob
In here, a little hole in your logic. Daniel, he's in eighth grade. He probably didn't pay For a league. And a lot of the free leagues.
Dan
Have limited commissioner tools, so that's why.
Jacob
They'Re coming to you with the fantasy cops.
Adam
I didn't know about limited commissioners.
Dan
Dominant Dan put in his place.
Adam
I just didn't know about limited commissioner tools.
Dan
I.
Adam
You know, I have some free leagues that you can still do this on, but I guess if for some reason, you can't do this in your league and you're stuck, which is crazy to begin with, I don't. I don't know what to do here. Like, is there a punishment? I'm not sure.
Dan
Make. Make trades to change the rosters to what they should be.
Adam
But the guy won't trade. If the guy who picked up Jason just won't trade, then what?
Dan
Then you kick him out. This is a. Even in eighth grade. Like, eighth grade. You're not in fourth grade here, okay? You're. You're a person. You're a human being. You've got free will. You know what to do. Kick these little twerps out of the league, okay? These little snots. I know Jonathan Gannon would kick him out of the league. I'll tell you that much for sure. Yeah, make some trades, get that roster back, and if they refuse to do it, they are out. The commissioner told them what to do. They didn't listen. Set. You know what? Send them to the.
Adam
Yeah, but it sounds like, even if they're out, what are you gonna do? You can't. There's no free moves in this layer.
Jacob
Whatever.
Adam
The commissioner has no power.
Dan
I don't know. But send him to the principal's office and kick him out of the league. Thank you very much. To the fantasy. All right, four big topics. Adam Plank wants to know which superstar players should we be trying to trade and for what? For example, should I trade Justin Jefferson for Garrett Wilson and Javante Williams, or. I don't think. I think that's asking for a lot, actually, but. Or should we just stick with the superstars? So, Jacob, you're very prepared for this. Your thoughts on trading away superstars?
Jacob
Yeah, I wasn't quite sure, like, based off of the example, if they were looking, like, if it was, like, which superstars do I bail on? You know, like. Like, because Justin Jefferson, like, you noted, I don't even know if he'll be worth more than Garrett Wilson in some people's minds, if they just are looking at fantasy. Points scored. Jefferson's wide receiver, 12. Wilson's, like, top five. Javante is obviously putting up huge numbers. So since it Was a bit ambiguous. What I did was just make a 1 to 10 buy sell list for the superstars, with 1 being the most saliest.
Adam
I like that.
Jacob
And 10 being the most biased. And so the buys. If you are a winning team that can afford to be patient. Bucky irving is a 10 out of 10 buy. Like, I'm a little bit nervous about his injury. I just hope that they don't rush him back. But the bye week is in like two or three weeks, and the schedule from that point on is so nice. And they have a guy that they trust in Rashad White. So the only thing is, Bucky is a bit of a maniac. Right. Like, he's. We've seen him play through injury before, but if he. If they're patient with it, he comes back. Like, I think he's just going to smash. And so if you can afford to wait on him, he would be number one for me. I've got an eight on the buy meter for Jamar Chase with no contingencies attached. Just, like, think he's a great buy.
Dan
No, he's.
Jacob
I do want to hear your pushback. But what I would say is, like, we just saw it, which is no surprise. We've seen in the past that he can produce even in an awful situation. And if things get right at the end of the year, I think it could just be nuts. Like, where he's the best player in fantasy.
Dan
But we also saw two games where he scored a combined 16.2 fantasy points.
Jacob
Yes, we did. Yeah. Which is why I think you might be able to buy him. You really should never be able to buy him.
Dan
Those were Minnesota and Denver. Those were tough matchups.
Jacob
Totally correct. Yeah, exactly.
Dan
I'm on the. I'm on the buy side with Chase, but I. I think I'm more like a six than an eight.
Jacob
Fair. He gets Baltimore, Miami, and Arizona in weeks 15 through 17. So it's like, if he's playing, even if it's not Burrow, I think that those are matchups where he can go Hammond. And if it's him and burrow, he could average 30 during those matchups.
Dan
I guess I'm just really not expecting Burrow back, but maybe I'm not expecting back at all.
Adam
They're gonna be out of the playoff race by then.
Dan
Yeah, it's the most optimistic timetable would be, you know, early to mid December, so it could be back. But that. If that's fair, maybe I should at least factor that. Seven. I'll go seven. Go ahead.
Jacob
Who else?
Dan
Who else?
Jacob
My Other sevens are Saquon Barkley. I'm in on that as a buy.
Adam
Okay.
Jacob
Brock Bowers with the same contingency as Bucky if you can afford to be patient. But like Bucky, I'm a little bit worried about him as a player being just a crazy person and trying to get out there too soon.
Adam
Right.
Jacob
But if you can't afford to be patient, I don't have quite as much confidence in the team level stuff. Which is why he's a 7 and out of 10 by highs. I've got a 7 for both Jackson, Smith and Pukinakua. If you can buy them at all, I'm fine paying the price. And then I also have a seven for Drake, London, Nico Collins and Lad McConkey. And then I have both Brian Thomas Jr and Justin Jefferson entering bride as like slide buys. So I guess 6 would be like I am fine buying them at cost relative to where they were at the beginning of the season. If you can get them any cheaper than that, then I think I'm fine with that.
Dan
I'm gonna push back on McConkey. Obviously he just had a good game. I don't love what we're seeing right now from the Chargers. Obviously with Alt out on ir, he'll be back. Might take a little while, but I still, I just don't see him separating. I know he had the best game because he got the touchdown, but he didn't have that good of a game and he's not separating himself from Quentin Johnson or Keenan Allen from a target standpoint. So I just don't really think he's going to hit on where he was drafted. In fact, I would be more likely to draft Trey McBride, who's the clear number one target on his team than McConkey.
Jacob
I'm fine with that. I had Trey McBride ranked just to have him going into the year and I think that that makes sense. Maybe McConkie should be a 6. The cells I had AJ Brown and then contingency guys, Bucky and Bowers if you need wins right now I'm totally fine just shipping them and taking the loss. Even if it's less than you hoped for, less than you bought, you know, drafted the mat AJ Brown. I'm fine selling like I would rather have Roma Dunes a straight up over A.J. brown and Chase Brown. I've got as a three which is like if you need to cut bait, you know, if you need to sell low, I'm fine signing off on that. I don't really feel a lot of confidence that it's going to turn around. No.
Dan
Yeah, right. I think you said something important is even if you lose a trade, if you need to do it right now to save your season, do it. I traded last year, ended up being just a horrible trade. Joe Burrow before he really busted out in the second half for Kareem Hunt, who had just stepped into this starting role before Pacheco came back and it ended up being a terrible trade. But in the, in the interim where I needed a running back, it got me through and I don't think I won that league. But I may think I went to the fine. I don't know. It ended up being important for me. It got me to the playoffs and I had a little bit of a run. So you can lose a trade, you know, by the end of the season, but if you are desperate and you need to win right now, then you do it and you know, just deal with the consequences. Another thing to keep an eye on is look advanced players, experienced players, you're not going to fool them on this. But trading a player who hasn't had his buy yet for a player who already has had his buy, you are stealing a week. So you can try to do that for with less experienced players. Or maybe people just make a mistake and don't realize that but. And don't do it yourself. Don't trade a player who hasn't had his buy yet for a player who has had a buy unless it's a clear, clear win. You don't want to lose a week in that regard.
Jacob
So that would be like Drake London I think is a great buy for sure. Yeah, just bye week. The guys who are like superstars who were drafted high that I put as no change right in the middle are Bijan Robinson, CD Lamb, Jameer Gibbs, Christian McCaffrey, Derek Henry, Devon H.N. ashton Genty and Jonathan Taylor. And that's not necessarily their value hasn't changed. But just like I wouldn't really be buying them or selling them, they're just holds for me. Is anyone on that stand out as a buyer? I sell for you.
Dan
Not that I disagree, but I'd like to hear your thoughts on Derrick Henry and why he's just kind of a hold right now.
Jacob
Yeah, that's the scariest one. But it's just like I don't, you know, we know that like winter is coming for Derek Henry's opponents. That's how it always is. Like I wouldn't want to sell him low if it's like I get Javante or something. Like that, I guess, like, if you really need to win right now. But like I said, the. The snap rate this week, I thought was encouraging, that they still just tried to center everything around him, even in a game where they were getting crushed. But, yeah, I mean, it's obviously not good. His value has gone down since the beginning of the year. I just don't think I'd want to sell him.
Dan
I. I see what you're saying, achan. He is RB5 overall and he is RB7 per game, but he's only had like one great game. He scored four touchdowns in five games. He's just having an interesting season. You would think scoring almost a touchdown per game that Devon H. Hand would be having this, you know, 20 plus fantasy point season. He's averaging 18.5 per game.
Adam
The big plays haven't been there like they were in the past so far.
Dan
I'm almost tempted to buy low coming off this game. Even though he scored. But he had such a, you know, what, 10 carries for 16 yards. If anyone is panicking on HN, he had seven targets in this game, and I. I definitely would pick him to be first or second in running back targets rest of season. It's just. Just so obvious. They're gonna throw him a lot.
Jacob
I like that. Right.
Dan
It's him or McCaffrey. I'd have to say that's not really the most obvious take in the world. They're probably crushing everybody and running back targets.
Jacob
I've got a segue here to answer two chat questions. This is really professional business here, guys that you could trade your stars away for. The chat was asking, like, is Debo Samuel a good trade target even though he's playing well? They're also asking, like, who are some guys we could trade AJ Brown for? I think I would just take Debo straight up over A.J. brown. Is that where you're at?
Adam
I think so.
Dan
I struggle with that because.
Jacob
Yeah.
Dan
Because McLaurin is not.
Adam
Will return, you know.
Dan
Yeah, he'll return. I think I'd take A.J. brown. Did you guys know where the Eagles rank in yards per game?
Jacob
25Th, 30th.
Adam
Gosh. Is that a guarantee to get better, though?
Dan
Yes. They're not the third worst. You know, they're the 14th and 15th in scoring, but 30th in yards per game. I think it'll get better.
Jacob
I do think that, like, so better.
Adam
Yeah. Sorry. Go ahead, Jacob.
Jacob
On the Debo McLaurin note, like, I think that McLaurin be back might only help him. I know that this is irritating when I bring this up because it's like, well, the target share was 47 this week and it's not going to be like that with McLaurin's here. McLaurin's not a huge target share guy. He never has been. Even last year when the offensive environment was healthier, they're running more RPOs, which are like funneling targets to one player. His target share was still like 23 or something. I think having the vertical element in the offense would really help with where we're at with Debo, where defenses can't focus on him. I. I just think he looks so good. Like you look at him and AJ Brown. They're two players who both have been elite level fantasy producers at times. And one of them is in an offense where things are working and one of them is playing well right now and the other one is in an offense where it doesn't seem like they want to pass. They try to do it this last week and it only added more drama to this annoyingly dramatic Philly season. I don't. I just. It wouldn't surprise me at all if Debo outscores in rest of season.
Adam
Me either.
Dan
I guess it wouldn't surprise me, but.
Jacob
I think, look, it's Dallas Fantasy championship week.
Dan
The Eagles have the Giants twice in their next three games. It really should be good for everyone except maybe Devonte Smith. Because if it's good for A.J. brown, it's usually not great for Devontae Smith. If Dallas Goddard's playing, Barkley is going to go crazy. He's had a tough schedule. He's going to play the Giants. They're probably the worst or second worst run defense in football. Twice in the next three games. He's going to have 400 yards in those games.
Adam
So I'm dig the under on everything you just said.
Dan
It's like three straight seasons of the Eagles being really, really productive for fantasy and AJ Brown being awesome. I'm not jumping ship after five games. What?
Adam
AJ Brown wasn't awesome in fantasy last year.
Dan
Wide receiver, 15 per game. And that was with them throwing so little, you know, but they're still throwing. They are. I wish they were throwing more. I think this is what I said.
Adam
They're not gonna throw more. They win games without throwing and they can't throw. Their offense is very broken looking.
Dan
That's coral corland.
Jacob
Sutton.
Dan
A.J.
Adam
Brown, Cortland Sutton.
Jacob
Sutton, let me make you even more uncomfortable than the. The Debo thing. Jalen Waddle or A.J. brown.
Adam
Waddle. Yeah, Waddle Waddle I think is going to get hurt at some point. But I would go waddle on a per game basis.
Jacob
That was easy for you, Adam.
Dan
Yeah, I mean why not right?
Jacob
It's like the Dolphins scare the crap out of me and then also the potential for injury with Waddle.
Dan
Do they bench to is what I'm wondering. I mean if they would have to think do they have, you know, Quinn Ewers or something like that to see the future of their. I don't think so. I don't think they bench to it. But they are obviously tanking or not tanking. They are obviously terrible. At some point do they say like do we have something else that would. But I am thinking that's not going to happen. So I would take Waddle. I would take waddle over A.J. brown. Yeah. I would not say like somebody said Olave over A.J. brown. I would not do that.
Jacob
No way. Even I wouldn't do that.
Dan
All right, let's go to our next topic here from good boy Troy. Can we trust the Raiders offense in any capacity moving forward after they lost? It was like 40 to 6 or something yesterday.
Adam
Yeah.
Dan
Can we trust. Yes. Can we trust the Raiders in any capacity going forward?
Jacob
No.
Dan
Yes. Yeah.
Adam
Oh and yeah. No. Jacob and I went over this last week on beyond the Box for when we broke down the offensive lines and their impact on the run game and the past game over the past two weeks. I should say this is just one of if not the worst offensive lines in the NFL. And unlike what we saw with the Panthers which is, you know, you get a good matchup, you can scheme up the run game, you can stick with the run game, you can use different scheme to kind of figure it out in the run game. I haven't seen that at all from the Raiders and I haven't seen their defense provide any solution for them keeping game script in any of these to the point where they can establish a run game. So I think it's going to look really bad for a long time especially If Bowers is not 100 healthy and I don't know if one week or rest is really going to help Bowers.
Dan
He might have more than that. You know he's weak to week.
Adam
Okay.
Dan
And I hope he does to your point. Right. I hope he gets.
Adam
They gotta let him get right.
Dan
Yeah. And I if he does get right then I think they could have a decent offense. Geno Smith didn't really play that poorly until that second interception. That pick six they actually moved.
Adam
People are saying like they'll be better without Gino. It's like. No, actually Kenny Pickett is their backup quarterback. Who's the. He was a fantasy killer with no arm talent whatsoever.
Dan
Look, Genti was. This is what I want to point out. Genti was really good yesterday. He didn't play a snap in the fourth quarter and he had more than 100 total yards and five catches. He had. He was really good. He's had two good games in a row since he went to his Michael Myers stance in the backfield.
Jacob
It's the receiving. That's when this on the start to sit show. I was like, I don't really know if, if Bowers being out helps trade Tucker, which Tucker had a good game, he's a pretty good player. But it's like we got a lot more quick short stuff to Genti. They changed the way the offense had been operating in a not sustainable way, especially without Colton Miller, their star left tackle. Now gone where Gino was holding onto the ball for almost 3.5 seconds per drawback that was down to 2.5, which is one of the fastest of any quarterbacks. 60 one of his throws left his hand in under 2.5 seconds so that he was getting the ball very, very quick. Which is like we've seen. This is what Stroud has done and it's, it's working really well. These last few weeks things have been working much better in Houston. I don't know if they have the weapons for it to work as well here, but I do think it's encouraging for Genti at least that hopefully he can get going in the receiving game.
Dan
Yeah, the tough one is everyone's going to start Genti right. Like and should you trade for him? I don't know. I think he's going to be just fine. I think he's maybe going to play like a second rounder instead of a first rounder or maybe he's just awesome again. He was having a good game and he's getting Tennessee this week, which is a great matchup. He's. They. They actually have a really tough schedule. That was the other thing I wanted to point out. They have. Beginning in week 10, the Raiders have a seven game stretch with Denver twice Cleveland, the Chargers, the Eagles and the Texans.
Adam
Wow.
Dan
So yeah, beginning in week 10, their schedule gets old. Awful. So I would probably downgrade everyone a little bit, but Genti I still think is going to be fine. And then Bowers, if he's back to himself, then he does. The matchups won't matter for him. Myers is the tough one, 77% started. I am stunned that Jacoby Myers did not have a good game. I thought for sure he was going to have a good game without Bowers. Four catches for 32 yards on six targets after four catches for 30 yards on seven targets the week before. I don't really know what to say. I think he's probably a number three wide receiver, which is what he's been basically like most of much of his career or the last three years of his career. All right, next topic then. From Randy Mou. Randy Mal 04. Who or what is the top preseason player or situation that we were wrong about and we move on from? And which player or preseason situation were we wrong about so far, but we remain patient on. And full disclosure, some of us took this as a preseason, meaning what happened in the actual preseason. And some of us took this as preseason as in draft season. What did we think, you know, before the actual regular season game started?
Adam
But either way, from both ways. Yeah.
Dan
Yeah, right. Either way. Who are we being patient with and who are we moving on from? And Dan, I'll let you start.
Adam
Okay. Let me get my little list up. So for me, patient with or write on that, I'm sticking with Debo Samuel, who I thought would be just a perfect fit for this Cliff Kingsbury system. We talked a little bit about him.
Dan
This is absolutely not what the question was. I mean, this is people that are struggling that we're being patient with.
Adam
Oh, just the ones that we were wrong on. Okay. Philly, start with that one.
Dan
Okay.
Adam
Thought we'd see that offensive line dominate again. I thought we'd see that offense be one of the offenses in fantasy that you want to buy into at all times and all parts. As far as that goes on my confidence meter, 1 through 10 of it going that direction and not continuing to be what it was. I'll put it at a 2.5. While it will get better, I don't think it will get better. Detroit was a team that Jacob and I both expected some aggression from with the loss of Ben Johnson, with the loss of Frank Ragnow, the best center in football, and then starting three new interior offensive linemen in all three spots. Haven't seen that much of that yet with the exception of one game. So my confidence meter in them continuing to be one of the most dominant offensive football is probably an 8 or 9 Seattle.
Jacob
We were right and wrong on that one. If you remember the analysis I did digging into all the Ben Johnson stuff and, like, how he boosted it was like he really boosted Jameson Williams, but Amano St. Brown is the man, so I think he'll be fine. And I'm worried. Yeah. So at least you got that part right.
Adam
Yeah. It wasn't fully wrong. I just thought there would be more of a regression due to those offensive line changes and there just isn't. It's a. It's a. It's a. It's a wagon there in Detroit. Seattle was a team. I thought maybe offensive line could be a big issue. Obviously we talked a little bit about Gray Zable and what he can mean to that offense, but he's meant a lot to that offense offensive line. And I think Charles Cross is playing good football as well, so. And more importantly, Darnold's awesome like Donald in this system. Now that he's met his match, which is like the Shanahan Kevin o' Connell tree, he's become a much better quarterback in the NFL. I think he's one of the better ones we watch on a weekly basis. So in that regard, I think my confidence meter is 7.5 of them continuing it throughout the season. I really like what I've seen from Seattle offense. Other offenses I was wrong on are players. Colston Loughlin thought he would be hit the ground running. It hasn't happened yet. For Jacob and I, that's a big one. We hope that that could change in the. In the second half of the season. I have confidence in the player. I don't know if I have confidence in his role in the offense, though. I do like that the offense is much better than we expected it even to be at this stage. The Bears, Colts offense, you know, I got ecrow for this one. I knew they had all the pieces around them. Top seven, top six offensive line, one of the best running backs the NFL when healthy. A slew of just different wide receivers who do a lot of great, different things. And Tyler Warren, who I love, and Steichen, who in the past, when he didn't have to work with Anthony Richardson, who has like four total starts and before he entered the NFL or whatever it was and didn't really play much football, proved to be a great coach and a great quarterback whisperer. But I didn't believe in Jones and I was wrong on that. Jones is able to, you know, do good with all of that stuff around him. So that's an offense I just missed on as far as confidence.
Dan
Yeah. But the question was like, who were you wrong about that you're being patient with and who were you wrong about that you're moving on from. So I. I can keep talking.
Adam
I think I just missed this question. Yeah, let's go to Jake. Well, okay. One that actually seems right. Travis Hunter. Okay, I was wrong about Travis Hunter. Am I being patient on him? No, no.
Dan
Moving on.
Adam
And honestly, sorry for misinterpreting the question.
Dan
Two weeks ago, I was being patient with Brian Thomas Jr. But I'm about out of patient. Not that I'm going to drop him, but it's more of like a hold instead of a buy low. But we'll see what happens tonight. But I've kind of lost. Lost a lot of confidence in him.
Jacob
Adam can't even be patient with Dan.
Dan
Well, no, no.
Adam
Yeah, I deserve to be cut off. There.
Dan
Totally missed.
Adam
I totally misunderstood the question. My bad. Guys. That was on me. I totally misread or misunderstood the question.
Jacob
Travis Hunter's going off tonight, by the way.
Adam
I hope I need him score 16 to win a matchup that I should have won, but stupid guy is Jamar Chase and he has that random touchdown at the end, which was so infuriating. So infuriating.
Dan
You want. Go ahead, Jacob.
Jacob
Yeah, so I. I thought this was maybe a question about, like, you know, overreacting to the preseason or something. Like watching the preseason and what things get really hyped up. Like, Travion Henderson got extremely hyped up during the preseason. Specifically, like his ADP shot way up just because of a few plays in the preseason. Was that wrong? It clearly looks like it. So far. There was a lot of risk baked in that. I don't think people really accounted for Dan, actually did. He, like, helped me not get too high on Trayvon because of the coaching situation there. And on that note, like, Kyle Williams was somebody that we got super excited about. And it's like, will he ever get a chance? I just don't know with Josh McDaniels in the way that things work.
Adam
Yeah.
Jacob
For these rookies. Ollie Gordon was the other one that I think people got really excited about during the preseason. That it looks like it's kind of nothing. But honestly, I think it was more right than wrong during the preseason in terms of like, watching players and being like. Like, Tyler Warren looks phenomenal. They're getting Tyler Warren targets down the field. They're doing stuff a lot more than just like, design screens.
Dan
How bad did Daniel Jones look in the preseason? Right. That was the weird thing. He overthrew wide open Tyler Warren right up the sidelines. That's the most Daniel Jones throw I've ever seen. This isn't Going to work. But I think Jacob, even if, even.
Jacob
If Jones looked amazing, no one would have changed their opinion on Daniel Jones. True.
Dan
Probably not. I think the problem with rookies in the preseason is that they're the ones that play, right? So we can't really talk about their roles anymore in the preseason. When they're the ones that actually play, we have to see them play. The coaches always play them more than the veterans. So I actually hate the preseason now. I, I obviously don't want Covid to come back, but I would love to not have a preseason again because we didn't like, I didn't miss preseason at all that one year during COVID and, and I don't feel like we missed any analysis. You know, it's like our job was harder. I hate the preseason. I am so mad at the preseason. The preseason sucks. Like it led us so astray with, with RJ Harvey, with Travion Henderson.
Jacob
RJ Harvey played terrible in the preseason.
Dan
But he had that first and second down role. It was like, oh, he's the first and second down guy. They're going to bring in J.K. dobbins for pass protection. He's going to be the third down guy.
Adam
Wrong.
Dan
RJ Harvey fooled you in the preseason.
Jacob
I think everything along the RJ Harvey timeline is exactly as expected for a rookie that has a veteran is playing with an old coach. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we see his role expanded as the year goes on. I do think there's a lot of value in watching the preseason and I've got a long list of guys here from this year and last year if we wanted. But I'm also content to just move on from this question.
Dan
Give me a few names that, that you benefit.
Jacob
Looked like a bona fide stud in the preseason. Bill looked incredible. It was very reminiscent of Bucky Irving last year during the preseason. Jackson darts preseason was awesome. And then we see him get in way, expect way earlier than expected and play well. Harold Fannin looked really, really good in the preseason. Immediately on the field in week one, contributing right away. Looking good.
Dan
Yeah. Worked out though.
Jacob
I. I don't know, I guess but my question is right relative to expectations.
Dan
He was free with all the guys that you talked about. Definitely not Bill like that. I could see the value there to say that Tyler Warren looked good in the preseason. Tyler Warren was my favorite player in the draft, basically other than the top three. I mean, I love Tyler Warren. I feel like just, just from what they did in college, we could have expected them to be good players.
Jacob
Well, that's why I brought up the downfield targets is because Warren was like a screen merchant in college. He did some downfield stuff. He has amazing hands and that was on display against college guys. But to see him come in against like the best athletes in the world and be doing looking like the exact same guy and them getting him targets down the field, just like there's not very many tight ends that get targeted down the field, there's even fewer tight ends that have an offense like based around them in the NFL. And so like he needed to confirm that he was able to win against pro level players if he was going to succeed because it was unlikely that the role was going to be a 35 target share like it was in college. And he has, he only has a 20 target share so far this year. But he's been able to produce because he's a freaking alpha out there. He's really good.
Dan
Yeah, he is. He's terrific. All right, we should probably move on. Anything else you want to add? And the only reason people are asking why I'm moving on, I actually have a show in three minutes with Jamie. I'm going to try to bump it a little bit to buy us some more time. But that's why I'm in a bit of a time crunch. But yeah, you can finish up.
Jacob
We're good. Let's move on.
Dan
All right. The last topic was, oh, I'm moving on from Isaiah Pacheco. I already dropped him in two leagues. He's going to go off tonight. Obviously. Obviously. And I'm staying patient with Travion Henderson because I still believe in the talent. I'm staying patient with Saquon Barkley. I think you should buy low on him. And Trey McBride was the other guy. He's number six tight end per game. Right now he's still on pace for 143 targets. Last year he was on pace for 156 targets. So it's not as good, but it's still great. And I feel like he has one touchdown. He has three end zone targets. I think last year he had nine. So he'll never score in the NFL. He's just the kind of guy that I just feel comfortable with in my lineup. And I do think that some of the tight ends that we've been excited about are probably going to fade. Like Harold Fannin, Maybe he won't fade. I don't know. Maybe with Dylan Gabriel be great. But Juwan Johnson, people are probably going to start dropping.
Adam
Yeah, but what About Ferguson and Kincaid.
Dan
I mean Ferguson. What's Ferguson going to be like when. When CD Lamb comes back?
Adam
Not too much worse than McBride.
Dan
Dalton. Yes, Dalton. Kate is going to keep producing with a maximum of six targets per game. Gonna be bright.
Adam
Doesn't score touchdowns in the NFL. He didn't score touchdowns in college. It's hard to return value where we were drafting him with that and I loved him last year.
Dan
I don't agree. If you can get him, if he's third round value and he's getting 143 targets in PPR, he'll still be in full PPR.
Adam
Fine.
Dan
Yeah, full PPR.
Adam
I won't be doing this again with tight ends. I know that.
Dan
We'll see about that.
Adam
I do it every year but I won't be doing it again.
Jacob
Be patient with the rookies, especially Bashel Tutin.
Dan
Oh yeah, last one. We don't talk about this guy a lot of but the topic is from TD Pat Is Baker Mayfield a top five quarterback rest of season.
Adam
Top five?
Jacob
I'm gonna say no.
Adam
I'm gonna say he could not enough.
Jacob
He could be like he the off. I mean the office produced 41 touchdowns and like it could be awesome. He's got Mecca Buka who's freaking awesome if he gets a buga Godwin and Evans healthy like the offensive line gets healthier. They only have one guy who's out for the season. Baker is still running. So like he could be.
Adam
We've defense is banged up.
Jacob
He's QB2 right now. He was probably top five last year. But if you're just like projecting there's too many guys who run like are you going to take him ahead of Justin Fields who's averaged like 25 points per game?
Dan
He, he runs though.
Jacob
Not like these guys though. That's what I'm saying.
Dan
In six point for passing touchdown leagues. I am definitely going to take him ahead of Justin Fields who is Drake May. Justin Fields has played the Dolphins and the Cowboys the last two weeks. May and Mayfield I would take. I would take Mayfield. He hasn't even played a game with Godwin Evans and a book on the field yet. And Tristan Worfs is back. Now I am sick of doubting Baker Mayfield because you can look at his stats and be like oh well this is going to regress. But he's just, he's just a freaking gamer. And he is now scored 19.7 or more fantasy points in 11 straight games. 22.9 or more in nine of his last 11 games. He's also fumbled 16 times since the beginning of last season and only lost two of them. So he's amazing at having his own team recover his fumbles. That's an underrated skill. Now, I'm just saying he's been super lucky. But the thing that this is probably going to change his sack to pressure rate is so low this year, it's half of what it was last year. He's not getting sacked. His interception rate is way down as well as he played last year. Much fewer sacks, far fewer interceptions. This year he's playing even better. A book is obviously a big part of it.
Adam
Book is a big part of it. But one of the key reasons is going into this past week, and I don't know what the numbers say after this week, there were only four quarterbacks. Just four. That just shows the state of quarterback play in the NFL. Four quarterbacks who had a positive, not like a good, I mean, just not negative EPA when throwing past their first read. Baker was one of those four quarterbacks.
Dan
He's really good.
Adam
The league has just become what coaches can design. First reads that are open and confuse and beat the defense. It's basically what it's become. Unless you're one of those four quarterbacks.
Jacob
That's a cool stat from Dan and like, shows how effective he is and he's like, good at, you know, moving the chains and everything. But also I do think everything Adam pointed out, like, does paint the picture that he's probably going to aggress. Like the interceptions especially is surprising because he, he is just putting turnover where they plays on film. Right? Like he's spraying the ball all over the place. You know, fortune favors the bold and there's not many bolder than Baker. So maybe he does just keep getting lucky. But the sack depressure thing has been a serious problem for him in the past. Maybe it's just improved because we've seen this guy continue to just steadily compartmentalize and improve different aspects of his game. And so maybe he knew this was a problem. You know, he's very effective navigating the pocket. He has probably one of the best feels of any quarterback in terms of where pressure is coming and everything and being able to find his path to escape. I compared him to Mahomes and they're similar in the way that they play in some regards. He doesn't obviously have the quite the heroic throw ability that Mahomes does, but a lot of the improv stuff and the rushing that they can add for fantasy. I think for fantasy, they're Kind of.
Adam
They're right on that.
Jacob
Outside of the top five. They could be there.
Dan
They're going to flirt with it. Dak May Mahomes.
Adam
I say Mayfield might even be a better fantasy quarterback than that because at least Mayfield has this banged up, injured Bucks defense that's going to keep him in these shootout game scripts.
Jacob
Yeah, that's true, Chief. Steven's playing really well.
Dan
He's on pace for 490 rushing yards, and that's after two straight games of not really running that much. So last thing on Mayfield, I just wanted to mention. Last year he threw seven touchdown passes on deep balls. This year has already thrown six. It's been a completely. Yeah. Last year he had 56 pass attempts on deep balls, which. Which I think most people define as 20 or more air yards. 56. Last year he's on pace for 99. This year he leads the NFL in past attempts of 20 or more air yards. It's been a completely different player, and I think he's playing even better than he played last year. But that is coming off his best game. This. This Seattle game was his best game. He was insane.
Adam
I think he looks great every game I've watched him play. Moves through his reads fast, gets the ball out with velocity and ball placement. Can make plays off script.
Jacob
What are you defining deep ball as? 15 or 20 area?
Dan
I do 20.
Adam
20 plus. Yeah.
Jacob
On throws of 15 air yards, Mecca Abuca has 67 PPR points. The next highest is Devonte Adams at 49.
Dan
Yeah, I can't wait to hear what you guys have to say about Abuka.
Adam
That red zone post route that he's now hit a book twice for touchdowns. It's basically like unguardable for those two. Baker Mayfield just both times lit it up from a ball placement and velocity standpoint, like pinpoint. And then Buka just wins the route every time. So it's like he just puts his hand up and the ball's right there.
Jacob
61 points on throws of 20 or more air yards. The next closest is Trey Tucker at 31.
Adam
Wow.
Dan
Jamie's gonna Jonathan Gannon me if I don't get off the air now. So thank you all for watching and listening to beyond the Box Score. Plenty more episodes this week on the beyond the Box Score feed. Subscribe Watch all of it on YouTube.com fantasy football today. See you later. Paramount Podcasts.
Jacob
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Dan
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Jacob
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Overview
This episode dives deep into advanced fantasy football analysis—moving "beyond the box score" to focus on trends, film study, and actionable insights. The team debates which superstars to trade for, break down the performances in Sunday Night Football (Buffalo vs. New England), evaluate the Raiders' fantasy outlook after a blowout loss, assess rookie running back usage, and more. Featuring Adam Aizer (host), Dan Schneier, and Jacob Gibbs, this episode is packed with strategy, buy/sell advice, and sharp takes on the current fantasy football landscape.
Timestamps: 04:38–07:26
Drake May's NFL "coming out"
"This was his career game. This was his moment of coming out. I know fantasy-wise it wasn't great, but film-wise and actual quarterback-wise, it was unbelievable." – Dan (04:38)
Stefon Diggs' productivity and ceiling
Patriots' offensive shift:
Timestamps: 11:05–12:56
Timestamps: 20:24–24:45
"He just continues week after week, and they're just scoring touchdowns and he looks good... no reason not to like him at this point." – Adam (23:29)
Timestamps: 40:16–51:07
Jacob’s Superstar Buy/Sell Meter (1–10, higher = "buy"):
"He can produce even in an awful situation; if things get right, he could be the best player in fantasy." – Jacob (41:39)
"If you lose a trade but need to save your season, do it. Trading a player who hasn't had his bye for one who has is ‘stealing a week’." – Dan (45:00)
Notable Superstar Debates:
Timestamps: 52:16–55:17
"Even though he didn't play in the 4th, he had over 100 total yards, five catches; has two good games in a row.” – Dan (53:34)
Timestamps: 28:45–30:41, 35:13–36:03
“This is truly an example of why you go beyond the box score… The Commanders were building out this role for him to be a full-time player.” – Jacob (31:48)
Timestamps: 56:25–64:41
Baker Mayfield: Top 5 QB ROS? (66:28–71:29)
"This was his moment of coming out. I know fantasy wise it wasn't great, but film wise and actual quarterback wise, it was unbelievable."
– Dan on Drake May (04:38)
"If you only look at the box score, you miss this Commanders RB breakout. They were building this role for Tyrone Tracy."
– Jacob (31:41)
"If you lose a trade but need to save your season, do it. Trading a player who hasn't had his bye for one who has is ‘stealing a week’."
– Dan (45:00)
"He's just a gamer. I’m sick of doubting Baker Mayfield."
– Dan (67:15)
This episode delivers sharp, actionable fantasy advice with in-depth stats, honest takes, and film-based analysis. The crew helps listeners refine trade strategies for stars, navigate frustrating RB committees, and stay grounded when reacting to buzzy breakouts or busts. If you want to win your league, their nuanced, process-oriented approach and willingness to challenge consensus will give you an edge.