Fantasy Football Today Podcast – "Beyond the Box Score: Superstars to Buy, Raiders Outlook, NE-BUF Reaction and More" (10/06/25)

Overview
This episode dives deep into advanced fantasy football analysis—moving "beyond the box score" to focus on trends, film study, and actionable insights. The team debates which superstars to trade for, break down the performances in Sunday Night Football (Buffalo vs. New England), evaluate the Raiders' fantasy outlook after a blowout loss, assess rookie running back usage, and more. Featuring Adam Aizer (host), Dan Schneier, and Jacob Gibbs, this episode is packed with strategy, buy/sell advice, and sharp takes on the current fantasy football landscape.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. NE-BUF Reaction: Rise of Drake May and Stefon Diggs

Timestamps: 04:38–07:26

• Drake May's NFL "coming out"

  • Dan lauds May's (NE) real-life QB play, despite only 12.1 fantasy points:

    "This was his career game. This was his moment of coming out. I know fantasy-wise it wasn't great, but film-wise and actual quarterback-wise, it was unbelievable." – Dan (04:38)

  • Noted May's fastball arm and fit in Josh McDaniels’ system—benefiting WR Stefon Diggs, who was "getting in and out of his breaks really well" and "turning these short in-breaking routes into yards after the catch."

• Stefon Diggs' productivity and ceiling

  • High targets per route rate (about 50%) despite limited snaps.
  • Both Dan and Jacob project Diggs as a "borderline WR1 in PPR leagues" if health holds.

• Patriots' offensive shift:

  • Heavy lean on the pass game as an extension of the run, due to their stronger pass blocking.
  • Rhamondre Stevenson and Antonio Gibson continue to frustrate with fumbles; Travion Henderson's limited flashes and increased snap share are reasons for tentative optimism but not enough for unqualified optimism.

2. Bills Pass-Catchers & Dalton Kincaid Breakout?

Timestamps: 11:05–12:56

• WR Hierarchy:
  • Khalil Shakir becoming most trusted in Buffalo ("I'd probably go Shakir across the board." – Adam, 11:50).
  • Coleman best for non-PPR/best-ball.
• Kincaid's Hot Start:
  • Currently TE2 or TE3: "Among 30 tight ends with 15 or more targets, Dalton Kincaid leads in YPT, YPRR, and big play rate... but he's only 23rd in routes run—maybe unsustainable." – Dan (12:56)
  • Jacob fine with selling high.

3. RB Snap Shares & Usage Updates

Timestamps: 20:24–24:45

• Running Backs of Note:
  • RJ Harvey (disappointing, only 15 snaps); S. Perine possibly taking work from Chase Brown.
  • Kenneth Walker's usage frustrating (share with Charbonnet).
  • Rashad White getting "81% snap rate" and all-purpose work.
  • Javonte Williams:

    "He just continues week after week, and they're just scoring touchdowns and he looks good... no reason not to like him at this point." – Adam (23:29)

    • Jacob warns it's well above his career usage; injury/snap regression possible.
  • Derrick Henry (68%), Michael Carter (59%—role could grow), James Cook (70+% last two games, "very different than where he's been in the past," great for fantasy).

4. Superstars to Buy, Sell, or Hold

Timestamps: 40:16–51:07

• Jacob’s Superstar Buy/Sell Meter (1–10, higher = "buy"):

  • Bucky Irving (10): Top buy if you can afford to wait out the injury.
  • Jamar Chase (8): Still a buy if owners are worried, even with uncertain QB situation:

    "He can produce even in an awful situation; if things get right, he could be the best player in fantasy." – Jacob (41:39)

  • Others to Buy: Saquon Barkley (7), Brock Bowers, Jackson Smith-Njigba, Puka Nacua, Drake London, Nico Collins, Ladd McConkey (if price is right).
  • Holds: Bijan Robinson, CeeDee Lamb, Jameer Gibbs, CMC, Derrick Henry, Devon Achane, Ashton Jeanty, Jonathan Taylor.
  • Sells/Low Confidence: AJ Brown, Bucky & Bowers (if you can’t wait), Chase Brown ("if you need to cut bait, fine to sign off").
  • Trade Strategy Tip:

    "If you lose a trade but need to save your season, do it. Trading a player who hasn't had his bye for one who has is ‘stealing a week’." – Dan (45:00)

• Notable Superstar Debates:

  • Would trade AJ Brown for Deebo Samuel (Jacob, 48:09).
  • Jalen Waddle vs. AJ Brown: All agree Waddle is preferred (51:13).

5. Raiders' Fantasy Outlook: Can They Be Trusted?

Timestamps: 52:16–55:17

• Panel consensus: Offense is "broken"—one of the worst offensive lines, defense isn’t keeping them close, no groundswell for a run game.
• Bowers' health key for any offensive hope; until he’s "right," things are bleak.
• Ashton Jeanty is the lone bright spot; volume and pass catching should prop him up.

  "Even though he didn't play in the 4th, he had over 100 total yards, five catches; has two good games in a row.” – Dan (53:34)

• Schedule turns brutal Week 10: Denver (twice), Cleveland, Chargers, Eagles, Texans—all tough matchups.

6. Rookie RB Patrol: Check-ins & Cautions

Timestamps: 28:45–30:41, 35:13–36:03

• Travion Henderson:
  • Still being patient due to snap rate spike and role potential ("with a 63% snap rate, I'm holding" – Jacob, 08:48), but clear disappointment so far.
• RJ Harvey:
  • Burst in preseason led many astray; currently a big letdown. Jacob points out that's a reminder to be cautious with preseason hype.
• Superstar Rookie Shoutout:
  • Tyrone Tracy’s mini-breakout validates June’s "rookie gem" call.

    “This is truly an example of why you go beyond the box score… The Commanders were building out this role for him to be a full-time player.” – Jacob (31:48)

7. Preseason Hype – When to Move On vs. Stay Patient

Timestamps: 56:25–64:41

• Moving On:
  • Travis Hunter (Adam), Brian Thomas Jr. (Dan, patience running dry)
• Staying Patient:
  • Saquon Barkley, Trey McBride, Travion Henderson (Dan: "still believe in the talent"), RJ Harvey (Jacob: could see expanded role down stretch).
• Preseason traps:
  • Dan: "I’m so mad at the preseason. The preseason sucks. It led us so astray with RJ Harvey, with Travion Henderson." (61:50)

8. Final Hot Topics

Baker Mayfield: Top 5 QB ROS? (66:28–71:29)

• All agree he’s in the conversation:
  • "I'm sick of doubting Baker Mayfield… he’s just a gamer… now scored 19.7+ fp in 11 straight, 22.9+ in 9-of-11." – Dan (67:15)
  • High-level stats: leads NFL in deep attempts, already 6 deep TDs (was 7 all last season), on pace for 490 rushing yards.
  • Jacob points to potential regression ("interceptions especially surprising," 68:56) and concedes "they could be there [top five]."

Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "This was his moment of coming out. I know fantasy wise it wasn't great, but film wise and actual quarterback wise, it was unbelievable."
  – Dan on Drake May (04:38)

• "If you only look at the box score, you miss this Commanders RB breakout. They were building this role for Tyrone Tracy."
  – Jacob (31:41)

• "If you lose a trade but need to save your season, do it. Trading a player who hasn't had his bye for one who has is ‘stealing a week’."
  – Dan (45:00)

• "He's just a gamer. I’m sick of doubting Baker Mayfield."
  – Dan (67:15)

Notable Timestamps for Segment Navigation

• 04:38–07:26: Drake May and Stefon Diggs breakdown
• 11:05–12:56: Bills WRs & Dalton Kincaid
• 20:24–24:45: RB usage notes, snap share deep-dive
• 40:16–51:07: Superstar buy/sell debates, in-depth strategy
• 52:16–55:17: Raiders post-blowout, Genti optimism, schedule warning
• 56:25–64:41: Preseason hits/misses, when to quit, when to wait
• 66:28–71:29: Baker Mayfield, top-5 fantasy QB discourse

Final Thoughts

This episode delivers sharp, actionable fantasy advice with in-depth stats, honest takes, and film-based analysis. The crew helps listeners refine trade strategies for stars, navigate frustrating RB committees, and stay grounded when reacting to buzzy breakouts or busts. If you want to win your league, their nuanced, process-oriented approach and willingness to challenge consensus will give you an edge.