Fantasy Football Today – "Beyond the Box Score: Tetairoa McMillan, RJ Harvey, Nico Collins, Lions-Eagles and More"

Date: November 17, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Fantasy Football Today dives into what lies beyond the box score—using advanced stats and tape study to assess the real fantasy football implications of this week’s NFL action. Hosts Dan, Adam, and Jacob break down shift­ing player roles, usage trends, the impact of weather, and the surprising performances of players like Tetairoa McMillan, Jameer Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Nico Collins, and more. They also discuss several major injuries, waiver wire opportunities, trade strategies, and playoff outlooks for key offenses.

Tone: Analytical, conversational, humorous, with a touch of commiseration about a rough fantasy week.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

1. Lions vs. Eagles: Weather, Offense, and Fantasy Fallout

[00:44–05:49]

• Both offenses struggled in the wind and cold; only 5 QBs scored 20+ points in six-point/pass TD leagues.
• Weather is a major fantasy factor—cold/windy games are killing production, especially for non-dome teams.
  • Adam: “I'm becoming the weather truther in fantasy football, and I will stand by it.”
• Lions Notes:
  • Dan Campbell's 2nd game calling plays saw increased pre-snap motion (69%—season high).
  • Heavy usage of 3WR sets (91%) without Sam LaPorta, meaning more snaps for Isaac Tesla and Khalif Raymond.
  • Jameer Gibbs: Season-high snap and route rates in a healthy David Montgomery game; over 100 receiving yards.
    • Jacob: “Most fantasy relevant takeaway… role changed for Jameer Gibbs.”
  • Montgomery is unreliable; production is volatile and highly touchdown-dependent.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown had one of the highest single-game drop rates this season; weather blamed more than matchup.
    • Adam [04:33]: “We just can't expect fantasy production… It’s a weather issue.”
• Eagles Notes:
  • Offense is slumping (22nd in points/game, 25th in yards/game).
  • Lane Johnson’s injury could be a death knell for their O-line and run game.
  • Jalen Hurts: Consistent but now two bad fantasy weeks in a row.

Memorable Quote:
“I'm not saying I'm sitting them, but I'm done thinking, ‘Oh, it’s gonna turn around, they’re gonna be great.’ I can't feel that way anymore.”
—Adam [11:02]

2. Jameson Williams – Buy, Sell, or Hold?

[07:31–08:54]

• Increased usage and opportunity, especially with LaPorta out:
  • With LaPorta off the field, Jamo’s target per route run jumps from 14.7% to nearly 20%.
  • Detroit’s remaining schedule: all dome games—good for pass game consistency.
• Advice: Jamo is a “buy,” especially with trend toward weather-proof offense.

3. Tetairoa McMillan: Breakout or Mirage?

[09:04–11:59] & [21:35–30:04]

• Rocketed in PPR ranks from WR35 to WR18 in a single week (13.9 ppg).
  • Same stat line would have ranked WR21/24/30 in prior years.
• Debate: Is the leap sustainable, or did he just benefit from a fluky game and a defense in collapse (Falcons)?
  • Jacob: “[McMillan’s] peripherals were always great… We finally saw the passing volume catch up.”
  • Dan: “This might just be the Russell Wilson ‘450-yard game’… two weeks later you’re benched.”
• Skepticism remains due to:
  • Spotty past production (rarely exceeds 200 yards).
  • Quality and game-script dependence of the QB/offense (Bryce Young).
  • Remaining schedule includes 49ers, Rams, Saints, Bucs—mixed bag.
• Consensus: McMillan’s weekly upside is real, but don’t overreact—Bryce Young & pass protection are fundamental issues.

Memorable Quote:
“You can't sit here and say Tetairoa McMillan doesn’t have big weekly upside—we just saw it.”
—Dan [29:52]

4. Hot News & Injury Updates

[15:54–20:44]

• Notable Injuries:
  • Michael Penix, Drake London, Josh Jacobs, Jalen Warren, Basil Tutin—status up-in-the-air.
  • Lane Johnson (Eagles) Liz Frank: huge hit to run game & overall Eagles offense.
• QB Changes/Notes:
  • Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor named as fill-ins/benchings.
• Waiver Wire Priorities:
  • Kenneth Gainwell: Highest ceiling of current “fill-in” RBs, given schedule and receiving role.
  • Emmanuel Wilson: Great usage with Jacobs out, but tougher upcoming matchups.

5. Snap Counts, Advanced Usage Trends

[21:35–35:35]

• Bryce Young’s “eruption” (448 yards):
  • Statistical anomaly; huge game v. Atlanta’s faltering defense; not likely sustainable.
• Sean Tucker: 2nd half usage spike (12 touches); Bucs possibly moving away from Rashad White.
• Seahawks RBs:
  • Kenneth Walker reasserting lead role—out-snapped Charbonnet in 3/3 post-bye games, more inside-5 carries.
  • Goal-line rotation still uncertain—Charbonnet remains a stash.
• JSN’s Consistency: Six straight games with 20+ points.
  • First time <3 YPRR and <2 explosives—not a concern, still producing.
• Devonta Adams: Just 1 catch for 1 yard but a TD; lowest efficiency in years. Role is fine, but performance is trending down.

6. Waiver & Depth Receiver Deep-Dives

[41:10–49:40]

• Rams: Puka Nacua snap rate slips but role still valuable; Rams going heavier with tight end sets.
• Bears:
  • Luther Burden usurps Zacchaeus slot role; creative pre-snap motion use.
  • Passing game unexciting for fantasy, but Burden worth watching.
• Cardinals:
  • Michael Wilson’s 185-yard game—fifth most since 2000 for ARI, more than any Fitzgerald game.
  • Warning: Much production was “garbage time” with massive pass volume; expect to fade with MHJ return.
• 49ers:
  • Ricky Pearsall: Deep route running, largely a clear-out guy right now.
• Bears/Arizona RBs:
  • RJ Harvey—early down starter usage, but overall volume and situation remains muddled; worth monitoring post-bye.
  • Basil Tunin—showing short yardage/gashing ability but injured.

7. Sell High/Buy Low: Travis Kelce, Nico Collins, and Chiefs/Houston Outlook

[51:24–62:43]

• Travis Kelce: “Sell High” or Ride it Out?
  • Still top 2 at yards/route and YAC among TEs; usage and efficiency not far off prime Kelsey.
  • Unless you can get a league-winning player, he’s a “hold.”
    • Dan [54:21]: “He actually has a higher target share with Rice in the lineup… Second-best yards per route run at the position… I’d probably just ride it out.”
  • Chiefs offense: struggles are more schematic and opponent-based than a Kelce-specific fade.
• Nico Collins:
  • Has thrived during Davis Mills’ starts, but matchups (JAX, TEN) may be the true cause, not the QB switch.
  • Target share slightly increased under Mills, but efficiency not clearly QB-dependent.
  • Advice: If you can “sell high,” now’s the time, as QB/play volume may regress.
• CJ Stroud Outlook:
  • Houston line still iffy; time-to-throw and shallow target depth propping up efficiency short-term.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Adam [04:33]: “I'm not looking at—these games are going to hurt us in fantasy, over and over and over.”
• Dan [29:52]: “You can't sit here and say Tetairoa McMillan doesn’t have big weekly upside—we just saw it.”
• Jacob [53:08]: “I thought [Kelce] looked really good in the second half… that was the only thing working.”
• Adam [58:04]: “So sad about that. I literally did and then Drake London got hurt and now I have no receiver…”
• Dan [62:27]: “Yeah, it’s against the Bills. If you can sell high on Nico Collins, do it.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Segment | Topic | Start Time | | ------- | ----- | ---------- | | Lions vs. Eagles weather/game breakdown | [00:44] | | Jameer Gibbs role changes | [03:52] | | Jameson Williams “buy or sell” | [08:03] | | McMillan’s breakout/advanced WR stats | [09:04], [21:35] | | Eagles offense outlook, Hurts/Barkley concerns | [11:24] | | Major news/injuries | [15:54] | | Snap/Usage deep-dive (Bucs, Seahawks, Rams etc.) | [21:35] | | Buy/Sell: Travis Kelce/Kansas City offense | [51:24] | | Buy/Sell: Nico Collins/Houston WRs | [57:44] | | Rookie RB/WR trends, deeper waiver notes | [41:10], [49:40], [64:29] |

Summary Takeaways

• Weather is a bigger player in late-season fantasy projections than people want to admit.
• Jameer Gibbs and Jameson Williams are both trending up due to usage changes and schedule advantages.
• *Tetairoa McMillan is real, but rely on matchup/game script as a tiebreaker. Don’t overreact.
• Eagles offense is on a downward trajectory—downgrade expectations, esp. with O-line injuries.
• Travis Kelce remains elite at TE; only move him in a monster trade.
• Nico Collins’ recent spike is more matchup-driven than QB-dependent; time for a sell-high if possible.

For more deep-dive analysis—including player profiles, usage trends, and playoff strategies—subscribe to Fantasy Football Today and catch the next “Beyond the Box Score” episode!