Beyond the Box Score: What's Wrong With All of These Slumping Players!? (09/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today – Beyond the Box Score: What's Wrong With All of These Slumping Players!?

Date: September 22, 2025
Host(s): Adam Aizer, Dan Schneier, Jacob Gibbs

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Episode Overview

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, Adam, Dan, and Jacob dig into advanced stats and go beyond the surface numbers to unearth what's going on with several high-profile slumping players in fantasy football. The team covers struggles of elite receivers, running backs' usage, and whether panic is justified for several underperformers. They highlight consistent standouts, analyze advanced metrics for under-the-radar value, and debate buy/sell/hold stances across skill positions. Deep dives on Chiefs, Giants, and key rookie/2nd-year fantasy plays drive the conversation.

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Main Discussion Points & Insights

Chiefs vs. Giants Recap and Offensive Schematics

Segment Start: 02:28

• Chiefs' Player Usage:

  • Jacob laments the absence of rookie Jalen Royals for the Chiefs, noting instead it was a standard rotation: "About a 50/50 split in the backfield with Marquis Brown, Travis Hunter, Taekwon Thornton and JuJu Smith-Schuster all above 70% route rates."
  • Taekwon Thornton was highlighted as the most explosive pass-catcher, with 9 targets and significant air yards.

• Patrick Mahomes’ Deep Passing:

  • Adam notes encouraging signs about Mahomes' aggressive downfield throws:

    "Mahomes is 10th in pass attempts, but also 8th in attempts of 16 or more air yards, 4th in attempts of 20+ air yards, and leads in pass attempts of 30+ air yards." (05:10)

  • Despite mixed accuracy, the deep shot philosophy and pending returns of Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice give reasons for optimism.

• Concerns for Mahomes:

  • Dan expresses skepticism, having watched Mahomes live:

    "The first half he missed a lot of throws from clean pockets. Ball placement was just terrible... he's been really bad basically for 25 games from a catchable target rate standpoint." (06:35)

  • Jacob concedes Mahomes' accuracy has flagged but likes that he's being more aggressive.

• Cam "Scatterboo" (RB) Analysis:

  • Dan provides an in-depth comparison of Cam Scatterboo versus Ashton Jeanty, citing efficiency metrics and arguing Scatterboo is translating well to NFL after collegiate success:

    "He creates incredible yards after contact... He's a phenomenal talent and not too far behind, at least by the numbers, Ashton Jeanty." (07:56)

Concern Level: Malik Nabers & the WR2 Bust Zone

Segment Start: 10:37

• Malik Nabers Worries:

  • Adam is feeling the burnout on worrying about another presumed elite:

    "I'm already worried about 50 other players. I can't deal with it. I need someone I thought was going to be good to be good." (10:37)

  • Nabers’ output (5-71-0 on 12 targets in Week 1, 2-13-0 on 7 targets in Week 2 despite a huge game against Dallas) is dissected; panel agrees performance may be more about QB and offense than Nabers' individual ability.

• Busts in the WR2 Range:

  • Jacob:

    "Dude, everybody from that range has sucked... We thought that was a really good range and it's been pretty awful for almost everyone from that range." (10:41)

• Elite RB Consistency vs. WR Fragility:

  • Dan pivots to the durability and consistent impact of backs like McCaffrey, Henry, Taylor:

    "The thumbnail backs—the real deal players—until they get hurt, are the ones delivering every single week." (11:43)

  • Adam notes McCaffrey has the second-most catches in football (11:55).

Early Draft Do-Overs – RB Hot Takes

Segment Start: 13:17

• Trey Benson's Value:
  • In light of James Conner's injury, panel suggests Benson would now be a top-4 to -5 round pick, possibly higher due to role and schedule upside.

    "I think it would be probably closer to round three for me." (13:24, Dan)

Quick Hits: Injuries & Snap Count Trends

Segment Start: 15:36

• Injury Updates:

  • Najee Harris (Achilles) expected out for the year, CeeDee Lamb and Mike Evans’ status monitored, Terry McLaurin’s quad not as serious.

• Snap Counts & Utilization Notes:

  • Jacob: "Career high in snaps and touches for both Bucky Irving and Jalen Warren. Trey Tucker playing nearly every snap. Dylan Sampson at just 8%—don't drop him if you suspect Judkins will be out." (17:38)
  • Dive into Hunter Henry’s boom-or-bust tight end status, noting his inconsistency and role volatility.

Deep Dive: Brian Thomas Jr. – Panic or Patience?

Segment Start: 26:00

• Production Woes: (Three games: 7 catches on 25 targets, 3 drops, 28% catch rate)

  • Jacob analyzes BTJ’s “concentration drops”:

    "It feels like he's overthinking things... but the fact they've all been here at the beginning of the season is like—is he just going to keep doing this? Like, can we not use him?" (26:48)

  • Adam questions if the issue is injury or defensive attention, but ultimately remains hopeful: "I'm still optimistic. I want to buy in. He's just too talented." (29:56)
  • Dan raises prospect profile concerns—concentration drops, grip strength:

    "There’s multiple just concentration drops which is just weird... I'm not really in on him." (29:57)

• Buy/Sell/Hold Comparisons:

  • Both Dan and Jacob agree BTJ still has higher ceiling than the likes of Quentin Johnston, Keenan Allen, Cortland Sutton, and even Javonte Williams (33:17).

Consistency Kings: Who Can You Actually Trust?

Segment Start: 35:08

• Most Consistent Players (First 3 Weeks):

  • RBs: Jonathan Taylor, Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, Javonte Williams, Travis Etienne, JK Dobbins, Jalen Warren—all highlighted for usage and expected fantasy point steadiness.
  • WRs: Puka Nacua (“just rolls out of bed and scores 20 PPR points” – 41:44), JSN (96+ yds all 3 games), Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston.

• Jacob delivers a deep analytics stat segment (46:06):

  "Dating back to 2013, we have four instances of a WR averaging over 4 yards per route run with an 80%+ route rate... This year, it’s Puka and JSN."

• Team Case Study: Chargers WRs

  • Dan questions sustainability of three top-24 WRs in one offense (42:45):

    "I can't think of a team that had three top 24 WRs... Now, they are pass heavy, so maybe there's room."

  • All agree Ladd McConkey is a buy low, though he's been out-produced by teammates.

Ashton Jeanty and the Struggling Raiders Offense

Segment Start: 49:59

• Run Game Struggles & Usage

  • Jacob: "He's getting a lot of touches... but he's not getting any receptions and that's not a good equation right now."
  • Dan notes the inefficiency: "He's gained 145 yards after contact, which means they can't block and create in the run game here... It's not looked pretty." (52:09)

• Scatterboo vs. Jeanty – Who’s the Better Hold?

  • Panel ponders if Scatterboo’s passing game work makes him as valuable as Jeanty given current splits and offensive context.

Are Early-Round Tight Ends Dead?

Segment Start: 55:57

• Round 2/3 Tight End Assessment
  • Adam: "I would have loved to see how things played out with George Kittle... McBride's been fine. Don’t forget, you can’t just focus on whether tight ends have been busts—look at other positions in those rounds, too."
  • Jacob and Dan note McBride is on track, but Bowers’ knee/role and Raiders OL woes have impacted ceiling.
  • Caution urged: "Maybe we should stop criticizing folks for taking elite QBs ahead of these theoretically elite young RBs/TEs..." (56:02)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Dan watches Mahomes live and isn't impressed:

  "The first half he missed a lot of throws from clean pockets. Ball placement was just terrible..." — Dan (06:35)

• Adam on "bust" WRs:

  "Everybody from that range has sucked... We thought that was a really good range and it's been pretty awful for almost everyone from that range."
  — Adam quoting Jacob (10:41)

• Jacob, on why early stats can be misleading:

  "If all of these drops were scattered over the course of a full season, it would just be normal plays... The fact they've all been here is what's concerning." (26:48)

• Dan, on Brian Thomas Jr.:

  "He had insane size speed, so why not a top 5 pick? There were issues: 1, concentration drops; 2, running the full route tree." (29:57)

• Jacob, about Puka Nacua's historic start:

  "He just keeps getting better. For his career he’s averaging over 3 yards per route run…no receiver has ever done that over a three-year span at any age, let alone their first three years." (46:06)

• Dan, on the Sean Payton RB effect:

  "Death, taxes and Sean Payton RBs. For those who want the stats...just type in Dave Richard, Sean Payton, CBS Sports—he wrote an excellent article." (40:07)

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• Chiefs-Giants Recap: 02:28
• Malik Nabers/WR Busts: 10:37
• Trey Benson’s Value after Conner Injury: 13:17
• Snap Count & Utilization Notes: 17:38
• Brian Thomas Jr. Woes: 26:00
• WR Buy/Sell/Hold Debates: 33:17
• Consistency Kings Segment: 35:08
• Chargers WR Deep-Dive: 42:45
• Puka/JSN Historic YPRR Stats: 46:06
• Jeanty & Raiders RB Struggles: 49:59
• Early-Round Tight End Disappointment: 55:57

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Episode Takeaways

• Patience is recommended with elite talents (BTJ, Nabers), though concern is warranted when usage/efficiency/drops all combine to slow early production.
• Running backs with stable roles, even without explosive plays (McCaffrey, Cook, Javonte, Dobbins), remain fantasy cornerstones.
• Pass-game involvement is often the “tiebreaker” for uncertain committee RBs (Scatterboo > Jeanty?).
• The WR2/3 range has been an absolute minefield; fantasy managers need to keep perspective and resist snap judgments after three weeks.
• Consistent utilization, rather than just point output, is the best way to project forward value.
• Early-round tight ends remain volatile; McBride is a bright spot, Bowers is a cautionary tale given health and role.
• For struggling players and teams, context (injury/OL/QB/offensive design) matters as much as talent.

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For fantasy managers looking to emerge from the early season chaos, this episode reinforces the importance of context, patience, and process over knee-jerk reactions. Stay tuned to the advanced stats—but don’t forget, in fantasy football, sometimes even the smartest plans need time to pay off.

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Transcript

[Adam]

This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.

[Jacob]

Wanna play?

[Dan]

Can you believe this?

[Adam]

No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Dan]

Off to the races.

[Adam]

And he stays on his feet.

[Dan]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Adam]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. Welcome everybody to beyond the box score. Monday, September 22nd. This is Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. And this is beyond the box score. Advanced stats from simple people. All right, welcome everybody. I am wearing my Chiefs red, not because I lost the bet, just because it was the, it was the first shirt that's on top of the, you know, top of the drawer. I really thought the Giants were going to win. I thought I was going to have bragging. I have bragging rights over Jamie and Thomas. In college football. The Yankees are about to beat the crap out of the White Sox. So that's me over Dave. I thought I was gonna have bragging rights over Jacob and Heath, but it turns out because of Malik neighbor's horrible performance, I'm only going to have bragging rights over Dan because I am going to likely, likely beat him in the FFT league.

[Dan]

So at least, oh God, I hope that you somehow lose that game. It is only I think I have like a 20 something percent chance according to the numbers, the projections which never mean anything. So it's not over yet. And you just victory laps it already, maybe even jinxing yourselves but yourself, I should say. Well, yourselves. You have two players in that league. And by the way, I saw you bench Travion Henderson, your third round pick that I, that you swapped with me for James Cooks. I still got that win going for me. But yeah, I never had that feeling that you had and Jacob had that the Giants had any chance to win this football game. Because this game played out exactly as I thought it would, they'd have no chance offensively against Steve Spagnolo's defense. And that's exactly what we watched yesterday. It was really easy to take Malik Neighbors out of the game and Russell Wilson out of the game. It was simply just play two split safe. I mean, Steve Spagnolo ran split safety coverage on 79 of his snaps last night for the Chiefs. That was the third heights in his career as defensive coordinator. He essentially just played two high safeties. Double over a press, double over Malik, take him out of the game. And what can Russell Wilson do? Nothing. So that was the game.

[Adam]

Yeah. Well, it worked. Jacob, good morning or good afternoon. How are you?

[Jacob]

Good morning. I'm doing all Right.

[Adam]

It's.

[Jacob]

It hurt me a little bit to hear you talk about not having bragging rights and talk about bring up the Yankees because like just a year ago you got. Has really hurt us, hurt the Royals. But like, you've already moved on. You don't care. But like, that did matter to us.

[Adam]

Yeah, that was like, I don't even remember. I don't remember Kansas City had a team. So today on the show, we're going to talk about Brian Thomas Jr. I'm going to tell you this. Four of the top nine wide receivers in drop rate right now are on the Jaguars. Diami Brown is number one, Parker Washington number four and drop rate. And Travis Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr. Are tied for seventh. They drop a lot of passes, including Brian Thomas Jr. We'll talk about him. We'll talk about Brock Bowers and Ashton Gente. We'll talk about the most consistent performers in fantasy football and if they can keep it going. And I definitely want to focus on those Chargers wide receivers because so far two of them have been among the most consistent in fantasy football. But let's start with the Chiefs 22 and the Giants nine. And Tyrone Tracy Jr. Was off to a good start and then he left with a shoulder injury. So that was pretty much the only major injury. Andrew Thomas played about half of the game and then they just, they were just taking it easy with him. They removed him late in the first half. Jacob, what were your fantasy takeaways from this one?

[Jacob]

No one else probably cares about this, but I do. I was really hoping we would see Jalen Royals for the Chiefs. Exciting rookie. He didn't get on the field at all, even special teams. So it was just the same old crew that we've seen about a 50, 50 split in the backfield with Marquis Brown, Travis Hunter, Tyquan Thornton and Juju Smith. Schuster playing like all the snaps. All those guys had a route rate above 70%. Taekwon made some plays. Taquan continues to look good. Like, look like the most explosive pass catcher that the Chiefs had. And we saw the targets finally catch up to that. So like some of the separation data, the charting there has supported that. In addition to just, you know, watching the games, like, wow, he kind of pops nine targets in this spot. Tons of air yards. So he's someone to know potentially if Royals isn't able to get out there. They got him a few, they got him involved with some shorter catches and stuff as well. He had the most first downs for the Chiefs, but yeah, it's business as Usual for the Chiefs, it's Mahomes. You hope that he can run, and if he doesn't run, then he's not gonna be that good for fantasy, and none of these guys are gonna be good for fantasy. Scatter. Boo, though.

[Adam]

Yeah. Wait a sec. I got. I wanna. I wanna try to make you a little encouraged by Patrick Mahomes. Okay?

[Jacob]

Okay.

[Adam]

The one thing that, That I wanted to see, I think we all wanted to see, was is he going to push the ball downfield, Was he going to throw the ball deep? And so far, Patrick Mahomes is 10th in the NFL in past attempts. He is fifth in past attempts of five or fewer air yards. So he is throwing a lot of short balls, but he's also eighth in past attempts of 16 or more air yards, fourth in past attempts of 20 or more air yards, and he has the most pass attempts of 30 or more air yards in football. Number two, by the way, is Russell Wilson, and he is struggling on the past attempts of 20 or more air yards, four of 15, 169 yards and a touchdown so far. Actually pretty good on the really deep balls, 30 or more air yards. But he's doing all of this without Xavier Worthy and for what it's worth, without Rasheed Rice. So I'm somewhat encouraged by the offensive philosophy. The adot. The air yards are way up, but it's mostly just because he's still taking these really easy safe throws and do a lot of intermediate stuff, but he's combining that with deep shots. He's scoring a lot of fantasy points on these deep shots too. Remember, he drew a pass interference on a deep ball late in the second half that turned into three points. So I actually. I think Mahomes could. Could actually really be. I don't know if he's going to be a league winner, but a really reliable starting quarterback most weeks. If he comes back, if Xavier Worthy's back next week, which I expect, and he's still throwing the ball downfield a lot.

[Jacob]

Love it. Yeah, the accuracy hasn't been good, but he delivered a really nice deep ball to Thornton that didn't, you know, he let hit the ground.

[Adam]

Yeah, right.

[Jacob]

But, yeah, it's good to see him being aggressive, pushing the ball down the field.

[Dan]

This was my first time actually watching Mahomes live. I. I always feel like the best seat in the house in a football game is the 300 tier. I know people don't agree with this because for a junkie like me, I get to watch the all 22.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jacob]

The live all 22.

[Dan]

Just live. All 22. I was very thoroughly unimpressed with what I saw live from homes in my first time watching.

[Jacob]

Oh man.

[Dan]

Yeah, I hate to say it. Like the first half he missed a lot of throws from clean pockets. Ball placement was just terrible. I thought for him. For him. Now it's not terrible compared to the rest of the NFL. But I just, I don't like. Oh, we went over it this off season, Jacob and I, when we did our QB tears. All the charting in the data said he's been really bad basically for 25 games from a catchable target rate standpoint. You know, ball placement 10 to 19, 20 plus, like you just mentioned Adam. And then to see it live, it was just kind of surprising to me. Like Herbert. The Giants will play Herbert next week and I fully expect him to look a lot better as a throw over the football than what Mahomes, than what I just saw with my homes. But I think the key takeaway for fantasy in this entire game to me is Cam Scatter Boo. You know, first of all, obviously Tracy, like you said, looked good before he went down. Kudos to him. But Scottaboo proved once again that he can handle a big workload already with this team and that was something that was always a big discussion point in the offseason season. He didn't play during the preseason much. He didn't. He had once, a few, a few snaps at the end. Didn't miss most of training camp. Can he pick up blitzes? That was a big problem for him at Arizona State and he even talked about this last week with one of the members of giants.com he looked good in past production two weeks in a row. He looks natural the receiving game. He's an explosive player. He actually live, it looked like, okay, he gets some people like, oh, will he translate, you know, college to NFL? It's kind of tough to tell with his skill set. He's translating, man. He's explosive in space. He's explosive with his first step. He creates incredible amount of yards after contact and I just want to shout out this tweet Jacob had earlier this off season back during draft season. Just find it really interesting. Career Scrimmage yards per game 141 for Ashton Genti in college 135 for scatterboo. Scrimmage yards per game in 2024196 for Genti, 178 for scatterboo. Career rushing success rate 50 for scatterboo, 46 for Genti. Career avoided tackle rate 38 for Genti, 35 for scatterboo, and then against. In 11 of 13 games against actual competition, Power 4 schools in 20, 24, he had 100 plus yards in 11 of those games. He is a phenomenal talent and not too far behind, at least by the numbers. Ashton Genti.

[Adam]

All right, we'll see. I mean, he's really slow for a running back. Is he though?

[Dan]

He looked pretty explosive to me. I mean, deep speed. There was one player like, he's not gonna break a 50 yard run, obviously.

[Adam]

No, I mean, he could, right? There was because. Because if he does, it'd probably. Probably be because he ran three people over, which he can do. There was one run where I thought he tried to bounce outside and you could see he just got. I think he got caught up on the backside. I don't know if you remember that, if I'm making.

[Jacob]

But he also had a couple of those plays that worked.

[Dan]

That worked when he bounced outside. Yep.

[Adam]

All right, look, I won't, I won't harp on the speed. The fact is he's got a really good opportunity here, especially if Tyrone Tracy misses time. He has looked better than Tracy this year. He obviously can catch the ball. He was certainly one of the most productive running backs in college. So it's, it's good stuff. And they did seem to open up some holes this week, which they haven't been able to do most of the year. Are you guys worried about Malik Neighbors? And I think, honestly, if a team plays Dallas, think about this. For all of you who have Caleb Williams or Roma Dunes, I'm serious, if they play Dallas, this, it could make them look a lot better than they are. So Malik neighbors, five catches, 71 yards on 12 targets in week one. That's 12.1-PPR fantasy points at Washington last night. Two catches for 13 yards on seven targets, scored 37.7 fantasy points against the Dallas Cowboys. So, you know, I don't, it's like I don't have the bandwidth to worry about Malik Neighbors. I'm already worried about 50 other players. I can't deal with it. I need someone that I thought was going to be good to be good, but I was worried about this with Neighbors and also I was worried about the offense in general. I think Russell Wilson's overrated. The moon ball stuff. I'm sick and tired of hearing it. And I think Jackson Dart is going to be the quarterback maybe in week five. So maybe in week four. So, yeah, like, are we worried about Malik Neighbors? I, I went through all the elite wide receivers yesterday, last night. And I said, what round would you draft them in if we were drafting again today? So I'll ask you that about neighbors. Give me a round.

[Jacob]

He was round two for me, and that's basically where he would be still, like, early round two. Yeah. I was talking to my brother this morning, and he's lamenting about, you know, how tough it is having BTJ on your roster. And it's like, dude, everybody from that range has sucked.

[Dan]

Like, everyone had that range.

[Jacob]

That's been terrible. Nico Collins, like, he got a busted play, but other than that, has not been doing anything for you, obviously. Btj, Drake London, like, Michael looks really bad. We thought that was a really good range. And then it's been pretty awful for almost everyone from that range.

[Dan]

It's funny because the back end, like, after that rain, and even if you want to throw into it aggressive rafters like you and I. Jacob Brock Bowers, who we'll talk about on today's show, that's also been a massive bust in that range. I know most drafted him a little bit after that. AJ Brown was a bus in that range until this week. But honestly, you go further up top, it doesn't get that much better. Neighbors we talked about besides Puka the God, but like, Justin Jefferson, I mean, okay game, but what's. What are we expecting with Carson Wentz and really, in my mind with J.J. mcCarthy, so. Jamar Chase.

[Jacob]

Yeah, everybody sucks. Everybody sucks.

[Dan]

You see the thumbnail backs until they get hurt are real deal players. Christian McCaffrey, right? Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Josh Jacobs. And I know Jacobs didn't have his best game yesterday.

[Adam]

You know, Christian McCaffrey has the second most catches in football.

[Dan]

Yeah, this is what I thought would. Yeah, this is why you drafted before you draft him.

[Adam]

It's too much.

[Jacob]

It's a 29 target too much.

[Adam]

It's like anyone would get hurt with this kind of work. I mean, he's just taking so many hits and I don't know.

[Jacob]

All right, I'm worried about him and Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving had 29 touches this week.

[Adam]

Yikes.

[Dan]

All right, O line is collapsing.

[Adam]

The Giants stink, and the Chiefs are hopefully on their way back to being good. I just think they need to get healthy and should start next week with Worthy being back. Fingers crossed. Beyond the box score this week, obviously. If you're listening to fantasy football today right now, and you're listening in the FFT feed, there is a separate beyond the box score feed. Please subscribe to it if you're on YouTube.com fantasy football today. If you click the Live tab, you'll see the FFT episodes. If you click just the videos, you may not see everything in the Live tab. So click Videos if you want to see beyond the box score. There's a lot of tabs. Just explore YouTube.com fantasy football today. We're up to 120K subscribers. That's very good. But let's, let's get to 130. Tell your friends. Subscribe to Fantasy Football Today. Some big news for you here. James Conner is out for the season. All right, I'll ask you guys what I asked the fellas yesterday. What round would you draft Trey Benson in?

[Jacob]

Good question. 4 5, 4 5. Something like that.

[Dan]

Maybe earlier for me. Really I'm, I was a big Benson guy coming out of college. Yeah. He had the before his, before the injury he had the second best force Ms. Tackle rate ever charted. I think at the college level really explosive talent. And I do still believe in the Cardinals run game enough. Plus they have a super easy schedule. So I think it would be probably closer to round three for me.

[Adam]

I'd 100 take him over Chase Brown. Yes, I take, I think I'd take him over Travis etn.

[Jacob]

Yeah, Benson or Javante?

[Dan]

Javante. Put him up there. We talked about them all last week on beyond the Box Store. Williams. I watched him this game. He looked awesome. So good old Javante Williams out there on one of those runs.

[Adam]

I know I but again needs to.

[Dan]

Be healthy because that offense is just not the same without Lamb and we could obviously see that and it takes away his scoring ceiling. But, but there's no real reason Javante Williams can't have a good season. There's nothing behind him and he's on a great offense. It's going to be playing from behind the entire year.

[Adam]

All right. So that's an idea of where Trey Benson is.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Adam]

All right. We're going to do more news and notes in a second, but we should really throw a break in here. So let's take a break. Talk about anything that you may have missed. But I think you pretty much know all the big injuries. We'll be right back on Fantasy football today.

[Jacob]

When did making plans get this complicated? It's time to streamline with WhatsApp, the.

[Adam]

Secure messaging app that brings the whole group together.

[Jacob]

Use polls to settle dinner plans, send.

[Adam]

Event invites and pin messages so no one forgets mom 60th and never miss a meme or milestone.

[Jacob]

All protected with end to end encryption. It's time for WhatsApp message privately with everyone. Learn [e-mail] this episode is brought to you by State Farm. Checking off the boxes on your to do list is a great feeling.

[Dan]

And when it comes to checking off coverage, a State Farm agent can help you choose an option that's right for you. Whether you prefer talking in person on the phone or using the award winning app, it's nice knowing you have help finding coverage that best fits your needs.

[Jacob]

Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

[Adam]

All right, some more news items for you here. Naji Harris the Achilles injury. We're expecting him to be out for the year. CD Lamb says he feels good about playing next week and that would be against the Green Bay Packers. Mike Evans Hamstring injury I haven't seen an update there and I have not seen an Update on Terry McLaurin. It didn't seem so bad with McLaurin. It's a quad.

[Dan]

Evans right.

[Adam]

Didn't. Yeah, I yeah, didn't look great. I mean it's so funny. It's funny but you know, odd that Godwin's going to be back next week and now Evans and you're just thinking what, what do I do with a Buka? He just keeps producing.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Colson Loveland left with a hip injury. Carson Wentz is going to start next week. That's the first Europe game is Vikings Steelers and Tyrone Tracy with the shoulder injury and also Brian Dable did not commit to Russell Wilson in Week 4 against the Chargers. Man what a tough slate though for Jackson Dart if he the next four games are Chargers, Saints, Eagles, Broncos and then Eagles and then Niners again. It's just so tough. The first next six games, five of them are are dawn.

[Dan]

I think they should, I think they should wait to put him in until the second half of the season and play Jamis right now.

[Adam]

That's what I would do as a Malik Neighbors manager. I also would do that. We want Jamis all right. It's it's time for football at BetMGM. And when you register BetMGM, you're going to get instant access to a variety of parlay selection features, live betting options, boost tokens, and the best daily promotions in the business. Plus, when you huddle up with the BETMGM at your fingertips, every pass, every catch and every game matter more than ever. So football's back and don't miss out on any of the hard hitting action. Place your money line prop and parlay bets with BetMGM today. BetMGM and Game Sense remind you to play responsibly. See betmgm.com for terms, 21 plus only. All right. Some snap counts and other stuff. Anybody got some. Some stats they want to throw out?

[Jacob]

Career high and snaps and touches for both Bucky Irving and Jalen Warren. Two of my favorites. Little buff boys. I hope they can hold up Little buff boys. Little buff boys. What is little buff boys squishing and scrunching is that I think you should leave buff little bodies.

[Adam]

You don't know. That's what I thought it was.

[Dan]

Good.

[Adam]

God, that is the funniest segment. It is so funny. I thought it was babies, though.

[Jacob]

Baby of the year.

[Dan]

That's another one.

[Adam]

Okay, okay. So funny. You got a new show coming out. Tim Robbins.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I'm excited for that Chair company.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Very excited for that month.

[Adam]

All right, so career highs for Jalen Warren and Bucky Irving. Anything else? I have some stuff. Just.

[Jacob]

Let's hear it.

[Dan]

Okay.

[Adam]

Trey Tucker continues to play every snap, nearly every snap. Dylan Sampson played 8% of the snaps. If you think Judkins is going to get suspended, then maybe don't drop Samson.

[Dan]

Also, not to mention, this was like the perfect game script for Judkins and no Sampson, where the Browns are actually in the game the whole time.

[Adam]

They were in the game, but they were also trailing, but not by much.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Matthew golden played 71 of the snaps. That was encouraging. Travis Hunter only 53 of the offensive snapshot. Chase Brown, season low, 55.4% of the snaps. I meant to look more into that. I don't know if that was blowout stuff in the fourth quarter. I think it may have been.

[Jacob]

I'll look it up.

[Adam]

And then, you know, Hunter Henry is really just. I'm mad. I'm just mad. It's like kind of liked him as a sleeper. He averaged about 10 PPR points per game with a healthy Drake May last year. And that's good, right? And then, you know, week one, he has a big game and I picked him up. I bought into it. I started in week two. The reason I bought into it is because Austin Hooper barely ran any routes in week one. And I remember last year, it was like every time I would buy into Hunter Henry. Last year, Austin Hooper would have the good game and Henry would do nothing. So week two, obviously, I start Henry and he does horribly. And then week three, he does great. But Austin Hooper did have a 45 route participation rate for the second straight week. So I don't know what to make of it. I think he could. I think he could really help you at tight end. Austin. Not Hooper, but Henry. But I don't think it's going to be consistent.

[Jacob]

That's, yeah, kind of where I'm at. Like, people were surprised I didn't list them as one of the most encouraging guys from week three in terms of usage and everything. And it was great. It wasn't just the production. The usage was also great and the connection could be there with me. But like we kind of saw this last year where it was up and down a lot and now we have Josh McDaniels too. And it's just like, I don't. It's kind of like it's not like Troy Franklin at all, but like it may. It reminded me of Troy Franklin where it's like I want to buy in. There's reasons like anecdotally to think that this could be cool, but it's like Sean Payton, at the end of the day, I don't really trust that he's not going to just like pull the rug at any point.

[Dan]

Josh McDaniels. But I know you meant there, right?

[Jacob]

No, I was.

[Adam]

Oh, you were going with.

[Dan]

Oh, my bad.

[Jacob]

I was comparing it to Page. It's like those two coaches more than.

[Dan]

Yes.

[Jacob]

Yes. Like, who knows what they'll do in a given week. On Chase, he got like 73 snap right in the first quarter. They were giving it all to him turn into zero rushing yards on five carries. And from that point on it was more of like 50, 50 split. And the first half he had a 58 snap rate.

[Adam]

If I asked you guys, who do you think? Oh, so the last snap count thing I had was at Stefan Diggs again. He played about half the snaps. So I think someone you might. Might be dropping. I do think, you know, if you didn't watch it, Drake may. Look, he makes mistakes. He had a couple of overthrows that should have been interceptions. He had an actual interception. He had a fumble. It's. It's why I am hesitant with him. But there are just a lot of moments where he just looks so good.

[Jacob]

Oh yeah.

[Adam]

And could really have a big season. So I don't know that I'd want to drop Diggs, but I just, I don't think Diggs is going to be the reason he has a big season.

[Dan]

I think at one point he had completed passes to eight different receivers and that's just a good. It goes back Harpens on what Jacob said about Josh McDaniels. They're going to spread the ball around.

[Jacob]

I've got A few more snap rates. So on the Sean Payton note, Tyler Beatty barely played bidet. Yeah, we barely played at all.

[Dan]

But neither did Harvey.

[Adam]

Yeah, I think they didn't run a lot of plays Jacob. They ran like 40 something plays.

[Jacob]

48 plays or something below 50 plays. Anytime you see that that's an outlier. But yeah, I think that that is a good thing eventually and just in general it's good for fantasy because you can't do anything with him. But like that's better for Dobbins and or Harvey potentially. Darnold Mooney full time player seems to be good to go. We just need more than 0 points. 82 snap rate for Troy Franklin. So we did see it back to back weeks. That's good. Amari and Hampton up to 79. It was like basically all the snaps after Najee was out. Cam scatter boo 70 after the injury. So he was like pretty much full time workhorse there. And Christian Kirk 68 in his first game back mostly playing in the slot. Travis Hunter down to 53 again. Ramandre Stevenson 35 double fumble game. Travion Henderson's rate was 84 following the fumbles from Stevenson and Antonio Gibson. So it was like we're just giving it to him. We'll see what it's like next week. But that's what it was like this week.

[Adam]

At least until. Sorry to butt in. Until the last drive of the game. And this is what bothers me a little bit. The last drive of the game they put Stevenson back in. So when it really mattered most, maybe for pass blocking, they had Stevenson in. After the game they, you know, Stevenson, I guess they said we need you to. You're a big part of this team. He said, yeah, well they don't. They're not going to need me if I keep fumbling. So I felt bad for him. Yeah. But yeah, it's an interesting for sure.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Jacob]

I'm not, yeah, I'm not buying the like we're gonna get 84 trivia on going forward. Yeah, probably not. The only other one is only 30 for Luther Burden. So don't. I. I'm not. I don't expect a big change here really. I like we did see like Ben Johnson come out firing with some of these plays designed for Luther Burton, designed for Colson. Loveland got hurt unfortunately, hip injury for Loveland. But it wasn't like a full on role expansion. It was just like we got a deep play to him and basically other than that he just kind of played the same role. It's Just like a slow build is where we're at with. With Burden, I think.

[Adam]

Yeah. And it was the flea flicker. Right. And. And yeah, I thought for that it.

[Dan]

Was a slow developing fleet. That's crazy to watch. But the Gobblers are just so inept. It worked. And that's the other thing with the Burden thing. It's like he'll be a heavy free agent, you know, pick up this week, waiver wire guy. But I think you're better off just targeting whoever's playing that cowboy secondary.

[Adam]

Dave Richard is in the. In the chat, I believe, when he's imming me privately and saying that Tyrone Tracy has a dislocated shoulder. Oh, so that's tough news.

[Dan]

Great. Yeah. I don't even. What does that even mean for my. I don't know what the timeline is on an injury like that.

[Jacob]

It's gotta boo time. I mean, so maybe Tracy comes back and cuts into it at some point, but to me it's just like it's gotta be time until he gets hurt because he's spearing everyone every single play.

[Adam]

That. That is the other thing about him. He just uses his helmet for everything. He's like, I'm going to chip block this. This rusher here. My helmet and his ribs and yeah, he is a little nuts. Todd Bowles says that Mike Evans gonna have an mri, but it seems low grade right now. But they won't know until tomorrow if Evans is going to have to miss any time. I was going to ask you guys before I got into that Stefan Diggs thing, if you were going to guess. Not right now, but at the end of the season when we do our superlatives and we say who was the biggest bust of 2025, I'm thinking it's going to be Chase Brown.

[Dan]

Really?

[Adam]

That's kind of where I'm at. I think he might just be so bad.

[Dan]

Well, I, I kind of agree with that. I traded him away last week in one league.

[Jacob]

I think we've got too many live candidates at the very top.

[Dan]

That's what I'm saying. Like Brian Thomas Jr.

[Jacob]

They're invested much more heavily in than Chase Brown.

[Adam]

I'm more confident in Brian Thompson and I don't think Brian Thomas wasn't going that much earlier than Chase Brown. Like, if you want to, like Genty.

[Jacob]

Ashton Genti and are like the exact same thing right now. Like, they're the two running backs that have negative yards before contact. In the entire NFL, there's two running backs that have negative yards for contact through Three games. It's those two.

[Dan]

Good point. Genti's probably.

[Jacob]

I think that Genti's better and I think that Geno's better than what we've got with Jake Browning. So like, hopefully it gets better, but if it doesn't, if it keeps being like this.

[Dan]

True.

[Jacob]

He's not playing passing downs. He literally only had rushes this week. Yeah, that's a terrible fantasy player. That's not what you want at all.

[Dan]

Good point.

[Adam]

They could just throw to him on first and second down.

[Jacob]

That would be awesome. Right?

[Adam]

They could do that, but they haven't been. Yeah, Genti is a. Is a topic. Let's get to our four big topics. As we just talked about two of the guys here. Brian Thomas Jr. So topic number one from Ryan. Year two of Brian Thomas Jr. Is not starting off well. He has seven catches for 115 yards on 25 targets in three games. Brian Thomas Jr. Has three drops, he had six last year and he has a 28% catch rate. He also doesn't really have a good schedule. In fact, I'm going to ask Dave what the Jaguars rest of season schedule is because Dave tracks all that and it's just not that great. But. Yeah. So where are you guys on him? And he is. Yeah, a huge bus so far.

[Jacob]

I wish I had something to add. If you want to watch all of his drops, you know, you can watch his targets. They're on. I made a cut up of it for you. No, like he's. It feels like he's overthinking things or whatever. Who knows. It seems like, like if all of these drops were scattered over the course of a full season, it would just be normal plays. That's the thing is he's dropping these in a variety of different ways. Like where it's like he's about to try to turn and make yak and he just like doesn't quite hold on to it or he's like making a catch and somebody knocks it out. It's like that happens to anybody. But the fact that they've all been here at the beginning of the season is like, is he just gonna keep doing this? Like, can we not use him? I don't know. I think like the. The fact that he's so talented and that a lot of the things in the offense are working, you could in theory buy him, you know, and this is. Might well be the absolute cheapest he'll be because really the rest of the offense is working. The run game is working. Diamond Brown targets are working. Parker Washington Targets are working. Britain strange targets are working. Like the oven's line is playing better than expected. Everything is working except for BTJ and Hunter. It to me just feels like there's all this pressure around getting those guys working. And if we can get into a normal groove here, which they're. Are they 2 and 1 or 3, 0 or something like that.

[Adam]

They're 2 and 1. They lost to the bank.

[Jacob]

Yeah. I don't know. Like, I feel like maybe the fantasy side of things, like, makes this feel more intense than it really is. And like, actually things are going pretty well for what they're trying to do there with a new coach, having Hunter play both sides and everything. Obviously the BTJ stuff sucks, but, like, it wouldn't surprise me if it gets on track and then it's really cool.

[Adam]

Yeah. This is image I'm showing here on the screen. YouTube.com fantasy football today. This is him having a step on Derek Stingley, who didn't play much in this game. And I said in the. Our pregame show, you know, our stars. I'm like, he's going to beat Derek Stingley. He's gonna get past him. I don't know that the quarterback can get him the ball though, accurately. And on this play, Lawrence made a pretty good throw. Thomas went up and he tried to, you know, kind of high point it. And I think Stingley may have knocked it out of his hands. I'm not sure if we consider this a drop. It was a tough play, but he had an opportunity here for a big play here. Look here. He said he's pretty much wide open. And then I. It says sack job. Right? This could have been a touchdown if he never had a chance to see him, though.

[Dan]

Game's not over yet.

[Adam]

Also, yeah, the safeties. I don't know why the safeties for the Texans are saying, hey, did you hear Adam beat Dan in the FFT league? They are.

[Dan]

This game's not over yet. That's the craziest part. Like, I could easily win tonight.

[Adam]

You could win if St. Brown has a big game. But yeah, look, look, there were a lot of opportunities. There were those, though, even if he didn't have the other two drops. Those were probably shorter plays anyway. But I don't know. The thing is like, like Tyreeko had a wrist injury last year and it really affected him. I. I can't tell if it's affecting Brian Thomas Jr. It's obviously not affecting the way he runs. I'm still, I'm still optimistic. I want to buy in he's just too talented. So Dan, how about you?

[Dan]

So when he came out of the of out of LCU into the draft, there were. He wasn't a perfect prospect, right? He had insane size speed, combination. So like why wouldn't he be a top five, top 10 pick? There were issues with one, concentration drops. Two, did he run the full route tree? Do they expect him to run the full route? I think the second aspect he proved in his rookie season he can do, he can run any route. But the concentration drops. Like I watched that entire cut up you put up Jacob. There's two things going on there. There's multiple just concentration drops which is just weird. And then there's also just like a lack of. Like when Odo, remember When Odo Beckham Jr. Broke out with the Giants. One thing he credited to his breakout was that he works so hard on grip strength. Then that's why he doesn't drop passes and that's why he's able to make these catches. I feel like there was at least one target I watched on that cut up Jacob did where he should have caught the pass and the ball got knocked out. I'm not like crediting the DB there with a good play. I'm taking it away from Brian Thomas who doesn't have the strength to keep that ball in like he should not have lost that football. And then finally on his big play of the game, I watched it back on tape and it was simply just a coverage breakdown. A coverage bust by the Texans. You can see the outside corner over the top of him at the start of that play. It's playing off lev off coverage with outside leverage. And he's supposed to take the outside receiver and you could watch after the play he and the other D back look at each other like what the heck happened there? I had outside leverage. Why am I expected to follow Brian Thomas on an in breaking route? And so they just kind of threw their hands up at each other like what happened there. So I don't even want to give him too much credit for that. Like he looked explosive on it post catch but he had a lot of space because it was a coverage bust. So I don't know man, I just, I, I was expressing a lot of concern with Thomas last week on our beyond the box board show and, and where we were ranking him moving forward and I'm just like not really in on him.

[Jacob]

Parker Washington has a 19 explosive reception rate ahead of Malik Neighbors, Jamar chase, George Pickens, DK Metcalf Tyree killer, Jalen Waddle. 11 targets, 2.2 yard per hour run rate which is also excellent just for the chat because they're telling me that that's four. He had four catches this week on 11 targets. That's not working. It truly has like all been working. I just like want to shout out Liam Cohen. It's. I don't know how good he is as a head coach, but the office is working pretty well outside of two players.

[Adam]

One thing, it's not one thing. It's not working. Trevor Lawrence is one of 10 for 23 yards on past attempts of 10 or more, 20 or more air yards.

[Dan]

So they have no to Thomas. That wasn't really a good throw. It was. He shouldn't have to rise up and catch it kind of behind him.

[Adam]

Yeah, honestly, there are some deep balls are tough. I talk about this a lot. Oh, he missed them on a deep ball. That happens all the time. They're, they're difficult. I haven't seen a lot of on those. I looked at his, his throws. His 11, I guess it was 10 throws. I thought it was 11. Usually there's only one, I think where a guy was kind of open and that was a difficult throw too. Like these guys are being covered. It's not like he's missing wide open guys downfield. He's 0 of 5 on past attempts to Brian Thomas Jr. Of 20 or more air yards. So that's the one thing that has not clicked. Michael Panicks, Joe Flacco and Trevor Lawrence have been the three worst in the NFL in terms of 20 or more air yard throws. They are a combined 4 for 32 on 20 or more air yards throws. All right, so let me just finish off with this. I'm going to give you a few players. You tell me, would you rather have Brian Thomas Jr. Or Quentin Johnston and Keenan Allen?

[Dan]

Still think Brian Thomas Jr. BGJ. Yeah.

[Adam]

Cortland Sutton BTJ. Oh wow. I'll take, I think I'll take the safety of Sutton. Same Javante Williams.

[Dan]

Oh, I, I can't even believe how high I am on Javonte Williams rest of season. It's like unfathomable.

[Adam]

Come on, what are you going to do? You know what you call all things equal.

[Jacob]

I'll go with btj.

[Dan]

But if you're like one, would you trade BTJ for Javante right now and that's how you answer this question. So I would not do that. So btj. Okay.

[Adam]

Alrighty. Let's take a break. We got three more big topics when we come back, including who are the most consistent fantasy options through the first three weeks.

[Dan]

We'll be right back.

[Adam]

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[Adam]

We are back and we are talking about consistency. Fantasy managers love it. Who are the most consistent fantasy options through the first three weeks of football? This is from one year or hour year? Pardon me on Twitter. Did you guys have names? Did you want me to lead this?

[Dan]

Sebastian, you hit most of the ones that that I was looking at.

[Adam]

Yeah. I only have running backs and wide receivers so far. So Jonathan Taylor 17 or more carries, two to three catches on two to four targets in each game. Christian McCaffrey has scored between 22.7 and 24.0 PPR fantasy points in all three games and he's done that with only one touchdown in three games. Let me Are you guys concerned about McCaffrey? His longest run so far is 15 yards. His longest run last year was 19 yards. So now that's 102 carries over the last two seasons and he doesn't have a 20 yard run. That did happen earlier in his career. He 2020, what was it? 2020 and 2021 those two seasons he only had 158 carries. He missed a lot of time and he didn't have a single run over 20 yards. So it is a small sample. But again it's 102 carries over the last two years without a 20 yard run for for Christian McCaffrey. Does that does that bother you guys at all?

[Jacob]

I'll take this one in the same way that it doesn't bother me in reference to Kim Scatter. Boo. It does not bother me when we talk about Christian McAfee. They're basically the exact same player from a fantasy profile right now, except one place for the 49ers, one place for the Giants.

[Dan]

Well, I'll say this, I feel like that was very azer on the wrong side of an azer stat. Like, I'll tell you why I say that. We're using this like it hasn't happened in two years. Well, last year he was injured the whole year and then playing through the injury and he didn't even play at all. So, like, I don't know if I could stretch that back. That hasn't happened two years with such a limited sample size the year before. But I think it's a function of the 49ers offense right now, which I think is what Jacob was alluding to. It's not a very good offense. They're not as good as they used to be in the blocking game. A lot of that will change in my mind when Purdy gets healthy and when IU gets back on the field. One of the things that's underrated about Ike's game is he's a great blocker on the perimeter.

[Adam]

All right. James Cook has been very consistent. He only had four games last year with 19 or more carries. He already has two this season. Javante Williams has been very consistent and I love 11 catches in the last two games for Javante Williams. Here's a guy that's been consistent, but maybe you want to sell if this is really his role. Travis ETN 14 to 16 carries in all three games, but only two to three targets in all three games. Like, obviously that could change in a heartbeat. Jacob and I were joking as I was saying how Josh Jacobs has this 3% target per out run rate going into week three. They never throw him the ball. One target in two games. He had nine targets yesterday. So obviously change. But ETN the thing, if you, if you missed it, his touchdown against the Texans yesterday, they let him score, so they wanted to get the ball back. So if he doesn't have that touchdown, he has a pretty lousy game. And he. I think again, it's kind of a tough schedule. Dave says that Brian Thomas Jr. Has kind of a middle of the pack schedule going forward. ETN has the Niners, the Chiefs, the Seahawks, the Rams, then A buy, then the Raiders, who have a really good run defense. So far then the Texans. It looks kind of rough for ETN JK Dobbins Let me get your thoughts on him. He has scored I think probably the most consistent player, 14.8 to 15.5 PPR fantasy points in all three games and in the last two games the Broncos have run 54 and 48 plays. So very low volume there. But who's buying JK Dobbins as a must start RB2 a high end RB2.

[Jacob]

Going forward real quick and then I want to hear Dan's thoughts on Dobbins for sure because he was higher on me than Dobbins this year and he looks good so far. How I approach this question was I looked at Fantasy Points Data's expected fantasy points model to see which running backs were like consistently finishing top 20ish. I think that's our best bet is like the usage that's getting them there rather than maybe the fantasy points. And two guys that stood out you've already mentioned. One of them was Javante. He was running back 12, then running back 9, then running back 15 in XFP week over week. Another one was Jalen Warren running back 20 and then running back 16 and then running back three this week in XFP and last week it was looking like a top five finish before it became a blowout. Dobbins, his usage worries me a little bit, but I think it could get better. Like we mentioned, like Bidet saw his role scaled back and we know the Broncos have thrown the ball to the running back position a lot and that's why his XFP numbers aren't so high is because he really hasn't had a lot of targets yet. But with that said, running back 27 in XFP in week one and then running back 14 last week, running back 31 this week. So he's getting there through efficiency. He's making plays on his own, which he's always done. Yeah, running back one in yards per carry since entering the NFL at 5.2 JK Dobbins so wow. What do you think Dan? What have you seen on film?

[Dan]

Yeah, so Dobbins, the player was really high on this offseason. I wish I was a little higher but the Harvey factor kind of threw me off a bit. But death, taxes and Sean Payton running backs being consistent successful forces in the fantasy football game is really where we're at. And for those who want the stats behind that I don't have in front of me but just type into Google Dave Richard because he wrote an excellent article on it. Plus Sean Payton plus CBS Sports. And I think you'll get the article that he wrote up with all his research from when Sean Payton was traded to the Broncos. And it dates back through his history as a play caller. And, and you just consistently see running backs as success stories, the fantasy level. And right now Dobbins is the guy in that backfield. I know. You know, the snap rates aren't perfect. It's kind of like a James Cook type situation to me where you're not going to get that Bell Cow role, but you're going to get impactful, effective snaps and touches for this player. And Dobbins, like, like Jacob said, is in that Cook range of averaging 5 yards per carry over that for his career. Like that's how effective he is. He's really good at manipulating the blocks. He's really good at running with pacing. So I'm still high on him moving forward. And I also feel like this Eagles offense hasn't even taken a step yet. Like they're step behind where they could be, which would mean even more scoring opportunities for Dobbins.

[Adam]

Yeah, Bo Nix was really close to having a huge game yesterday. Just a lot of deep balls that were just, just off the fingertips or something like that. Jalen Warren's also been extremely consistent. Oh, last thing on Dobbins. The Broncos have three running back carries from the five yard line or closer. Dobbins has all three of them. Jalen Warren's been very consistent. As Jacob mentioned, the wide receivers that I highlighted, Puka Nakua's just, just rolls out of bed and scores 20 PPR points. He hasn't caught a touchdown yet, has he?

[Dan]

No.

[Adam]

Right. So he's just been amazing. JSN 96 or more yards in all three games. 18.3 to 20.6 PPR fantasy points in each game. Keenan Allen and Quinn Johnson are really the two I wanted to talk about here. I mean, this is where it gets super interesting. I can't think of a team that had three top 24 wide receivers in the same year. Now there was a year where the Carolina Panthers had, I think it was DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson and Curtis Samuel. But Samuel had a lot of rushing production and they, and they, and they like led the NFL and pass attempts or they were close. So this Chargers offense is fascinating. Quentin Johnston yesterday had. I don't have his numbers. I think he had 70 yards, 71 yards yesterday. He was actually shadowed by Patrick Certain yesterday. Not on every single route. There were some routes where he started out on Certain, then he ran kind of over the middle of the field. They were in zone coverage. He didn't end up on certain, but that's the treatment he got yesterday. Keenan Allen. KEENAN Allen's about 55 yards every game. And Scott a touchdown every game. Yeah, lad Makaki is the number 42 wide receiver in fantasy in PPR right now he's last among those three in targets. He has seven fewer targets than Allen. He has three fewer targets than Quentin Johnston. It's crazy, but this team, they, they are pass heavy. They're 12th and pass rate. They're fifth in pass rate in the first three quarters of games. They're ninth in pass rate in any quarter when the score is within seven points, when the margin is within seven points. So that's what they've been so far. But it just doesn't. I, I don't know how this happens unless Justin Herbert is. It's very possible, by the way, you know, 4, 9, 4, 800 or more yards approaching 40 touchdowns. Then you can get three must start guys. Right now you only have two guys who have been must start. You know, McConkey's been a huge bust. But anyway, every week Johnston and Allen are putting up their numbers. So Jacob, your thoughts on. On this Chargers passing game.

[Jacob]

Yeah. Even in this matchup against the Broncos and certain really, really wildly impressive to see what we're seeing from QGI. I did not expect to see QJ's targets that high on the McConkey. No, I definitely think he's still a buy I'm going to watch. I plan to watch like every route that he ran if I have time. Before we do our next episode, Dan, to confirm that for people that there's not because last year I watched literally every route that this guy ran. I was obsessed with him and I just want to make sure that he looks the same. But what I've heard from like Matt Harmon is that he does look the same. And so to me, it's like we've got all these other pieces to threaten people now. We finally got the run game going here this week and the team is still passing so much that it's like. If you would have told me these were the circumstances for McConkey going into the year, I would have ranked him up in that range of receivers who are killing us right now. Drake, London, Nico, all those guys. But I legitimately think that's where he would have belonged. The set I've got on the screen, though, I think it's just really fun and interesting. Not on today's show sheet or anything, but Like Juwan Jennings looks identical to lad McConkey. In fact even a little bit better if you look at all the per route data since the start of last year. So both of them kind of like broke out last year. It's a weird comparison because McConkey's a rookie and Jennings isn't. But like Jennings had always been a part time player and was going into last year so he had a bit of a slow start. But on a per opportunity basis, like I just want to highlight this because like he's so good and like the McConkey numbers are still really good.

[Dan]

Right.

[Jacob]

Fantasy points for our run, 4.48 for Jennings, 0.45 for McConkey. Very similar. Average depth of target. More targets going to Jennings and as you look at the situation now, it's like McConkey has more clear target competition. We're seeing that come to fruition whereas Jennings has basically just pure saw. I don't think, I think CMC's 29 target share is like by necessity and so I think that's going to probably scale back a little bit when we get everybody back in healthy. So I just want to mention him as a clear buy because I do still think McConkey is. I'm not worried. Like I know it sucks the way it's gone, but I think he's such a good player that will have some huge weeks soon to make up for it. And I think Jennings you can mention the same vein. Do you want to see some just crazy stats on Puka Nuku and Jackson Smith and Jigba?

[Adam]

Sure.

[Jacob]

So what I've got here, first off on Puka, his air yardage continues to increase, which I think is notable because like we've mentioned that he's playing more slot reps now with Cooper cup gone. And so this surprised me. But it's just like things are so ridiculously hyper concentrated on these two players for the Rams right now with Puka and Devonte Adams. And we've just continued to see this. These numbers increase year over year for Puka who had the most historically unprecedented rookie season we've ever seen. And he just keeps getting better. He just keeps adding to his game for his career. Now he's averaging over 3 yards per route run which during the time that we have yard per route run available, it's like dating back to 2013. No receiver has done over a three year span ever at any age, let alone their first freaking three years in the league. The guy's just nuts. The really, really interesting thing to me Here as it pertains to both Puka and then surprisingly Jackson, Smith and Jigba is this so dating back to 2013, we have four instances of a wide receiver averaging over four yards per out run with a route rate. The percentage of the team's drop backs where they ran a route of 80% or higher. I do think that qualifier is really important because if you don't have it, you get some like desean Jackson seasons where he just had some crazy long touchdowns at the beginning of the year and that inflated the yard per out run number. Or like Michael Gallup was somebody who popped up where he was like not quite a full time player and he had a really good year. I'm talking about his second season in the league. But like these are guys who from the get go are clearly instituted as the wide receiver one in their offense. They're playing a ton and they're averaging a ridiculous yard per route run number. The only four that have done it, we have two this year, Puka and JSN 2015. Antonio Brown 2023. Tyree Kill AB had 388 PPR points. Tyreek had 376. If I drop the threshold to 3.5 yards per route run rather than four just to give us a larger group, it's still an insane group. The lowest PPR point total is AJ Green at 274, which for reference that would have been wide receiver four in points per game last year. You've got AJ Green, Larry Fitzgerald, Mike Evans of 2018, several Tyree Kill seasons, Debo Samuels 2021 season, Cooper Cups 2021 season, Julio Jones. In 2015 we're looking at receivers through three games, 3.5 yards per route run or higher with an 80% route rate. Jackson Smith and Jig was at 4.68 yards per outrun. So I don't know if we can believe in this offense and no, it's not going to sustain this type of efficiency all year. But anytime we've ever seen anything like this, it's been a monster fantasy.

[Adam]

Awesome. Great stat. Great.

[Dan]

I love that.

[Adam]

All right, let's just wrap this up. Would you?

[Dan]

One more name I need to throw in the mix though that we didn't talk about.

[Adam]

Can I ask you. Let me just wrap this. Would you just try to. Would you buy, sell, hold Quentin Johnson and Keenan Allen?

[Dan]

I would, I would hold on Johnston and Sell potentially Keenan Allen.

[Adam]

All right, what did you want to add?

[Dan]

I wanted to add another player that deserves to be in the mix here. Devonte Adams just watching that game and we saw it from week one, we knew he would kind of break out in week two. I was trying to tell everyone to trade for him. He broke out to some extent then last this past week. It wasn't great from an overall numbers besides the touchdown, they were really, really close. Stafford and Adams on two more touchdowns. And this is just looking exactly like we've seen in the past with the Rams concentrated offense. Those two players and that connection, that rapport will get better as the season go on. I think Adams will be a weekly top 12 player as we move forward with Puka as well being that.

[Adam]

All right, our next, our next topic is about Ashton Genti from Unsheeped Patriot on Twitter. What should managers do with Ashton Genti? 70 carries for 63 yards at Washington? He's had a pretty tough schedule. It'll get a little bit easier, especially this week against the Bears, but it's, it's. There are obviously some other worrying signs here for Genti. So what do we do?

[Dan]

CD Lamb, high ankle sprain, four to six weeks.

[Adam]

Get out of here.

[Dan]

Breaking news. Oh, that's brutal. Goes from saying I'm gonna play next week to 4 to 6. Yikes for my teams. As far as Genti goes though, Jacob, I'll let you start here.

[Jacob]

Yeah, so the stat I've got on the screen here is fantasy points per touch among the running backs. And of course I really just wanted to highlight him, Basho Tudin, him from last week, and of course Cam Scatterboo and then our boy Bill. But down at the very bottom here, below Kalmanan Guy, below Hamari and Hampton, we find Ashton Genti. He's getting a lot of touches. I think this number will increase, but it's kind of what I alluded to earlier where it's like he's not getting any receptions. And we know that receptions and targets are worth so, so much more fantasy points than Rush attempts. So it's just really, it's not a good equation right now. He's battling, he's doing everything he can. But like, you're not getting fantasy points.

[Adam]

And then I'm going to keep starting. I'm sorry, I have to interrupt. I just want to say one thing. It is not CD Lamb is not out four to six weeks. CD Lam might be out for this. The report was it's a high ankle sprain, which is usually four to six weeks. What I saw earlier today was that it's less severe. They think it's a less severe high ankle sprain. So I'm still waiting to figure out that aspect of it. He's not necessarily out four to six weeks. High ankle sprains unfortunately can be an injury that, you know, ruins your year. Essentially. You could, you could not come back right from it. It saw it like with Jonathan Taylor once upon a time has a high ankle sprain. He is on ir, so I'm not ruling that out. But right now cannot sit here and say with confirmation of any kind that CD Lam has any timetable. We just don't know.

[Dan]

That was just a report from Rap Report, so I was just putting it in there. But as far as Genti goes, Jacob mentioned it best and he put this on Twitter. I mean, everything he's done this year has been on his own. Essentially. He gained 145, 143 yards after contact. What does that mean? It means that they can't block and create in the run game here. I watched every snap that you did a cut above Jacob from this past week and they're like they're running out of pistol, which they were not finding a lot of success from. The most success they found. Like they found success on one pistol run where they had the sniffer come around and they took him out. But a lot of the time Washington was just slanting in and just stopping these runs. All the runs inside were not working for the Raiders. There was one time they went under center and I think they ran either duo or inside zone and it worked. He made a nice cut, got got after it like 15, 17 yard gain. But outside of that, it just feels like there was not a lot of room to run for Ashton Genti. And this has basically been the story for three weeks. And we knew going in the Raiders offensive line didn't have a lot of talent. We thought, all right, maybe they'll figure it out. They have Chip Kelly. Chip Kelly has not in my mind, done a great job so far. And we'll get to that on the Bowers discussion later. But I have not liked what I've seen. I've watched two of those games now on tape. Those Raiders games. It has not looked pretty.

[Jacob]

Ashton Genti or Cam Scatterboo Genti both play for bad teams. One of them catches passes, right?

[Adam]

Neither team has to be this bad.

[Dan]

It's actually not a bad point though. Like if Genti's not giving these long touchdown runs, what is he offering more than Scad Boo when we know Scad Boo is going to get a lot of receptions.

[Adam]

Look, the way this this works is in three weeks we could be talking about, oh, well, now the Raiders are using Ash and Genti so differently. Look what they've done the last three, right? I mean, if they don't start using him in the passing game, then they're dumb.

[Jacob]

So I said Genti too, but somebody posed in the chat. I was like, that's insane. But it's actually a, a decent conversation to have.

[Dan]

Like, we'd probably do Genti because if Tracy's coming back in three weeks from the shoulder and she like, projected, then they could still be back in a split. But it's like what Jacob said. It's not exactly a bell cow role for Genti anyway. Right now he's not on the field for passing downs.

[Adam]

No, it's. That does stink. He has more than six. He has 16 or more carries. He has 17 or more carries in two of his three games. All right, well, again, it's been a tough, tough schedule for him. Washington does have a pretty good run defense. Patriots have had a good run defense. Chargers are just good. And I gets the Bears this week. Hopefully you can keep things going, get things going, but it's not that easy of a schedule going forward for him. Okay. The Raiders, by the way, are super pass heavy. They're fifth in pass rate so far. And that metric, when the score is within seven points, second in pass rate. Only Cleveland has a higher pass rate than the Raiders. They can't run the ball. They know that. All right, so we can talk a little bit more about the Raiders now because our last topic is about tight ends. Free. Yeah, says, are we done taking tight ends in round two or three? And I would say no, obviously, I would have loved to see how things played out with George Kittle. Basically played one quarter and had a, had a big quarter. I think McBride's been fine. And I think, don't forget, you can't just focus on whether or not the tight ends have been busts. How many busts have there been in rounds? Three. How many busts have been around? One. Right. Don't. Don't be too hard on the tight ends. I do think, you know, one thing that we'll have to explore every year is if we should just stop criticizing the people who take Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and all these guys ahead of true Trey McBride or Brad. These guys who, you know, these, these elite quarterbacks are. Are I Burrows out for the year, basically. I know, but they're basically the safest players in football, and that doesn't necessarily mean they're safe. They could be bad, right? Like they could be bad.

[Dan]

I don't think bad. They could just get injured.

[Adam]

The homes the last two years has been a huge.

[Dan]

He's not elite. Yeah.

[Adam]

But he's not fantasy wise though. He was drafted as at the last two years. I'm not saying that you can't have a bus there, but I do think like that's the one discussion that's kind of interesting is maybe we should just stop taking these young running backs that we think could be good and just draft Josh Allen who's had two huge games anyway. But are we done taking tight ends in round two or three? The last. I'll let you guys talk for. I just want to say this. You know, I watched tape not all that well, but I don't. I have a. About a 50% confidence level in the assessment I'm about to give.

[Dan]

Okay.

[Adam]

I watched some of Brock Bauer's routes from week one and compared them to some of his routes from week three and I believe the knee is hampering him. I don't think he looks the same. I saw a lot of like really nice cuts to get open in week one and I don't. I don't really see that in week two. It looks like he's more gliding than cutting to me in week three. I'm sorry. So I think the knee is an.

[Jacob]

Issue for Brock Bowers, but definitely Pete Carroll said like after their week two game, like they were just trying to get him out there and playing and he looked okay. Like, I don't know. That doesn't sound like a player who's healthy.

[Dan]

Yeah, he might need a bye week at this point. He. He definitely didn't look as explosive as he normally does. But I also feel like this was my biggest concern and I drafted a lot of Bowers because I felt like the price was right. He was being priced beyond like below that the where he was drafted in snake drafts in the auction drafts because no one wants to spend a tight end. But my one concern with and. And I've drafted him because I thought he's a generational talent, which I still believe he is even though he might be playing her and that could take it back. But my one concern which is proving to be true, at least from watching the tape this week against the Washington Commanders, is they designed the entire offense last year to get him the ball. It was all about getting Bowers the ball. This is not what Chip Kelly is doing at all. When you watch the tape, you can clearly see this offense is not at all designed to get Brock Bowers the ball.

[Adam]

Was. Was it in week one though, before the injury?

[Dan]

Look, I have to take a look at that and maybe it is the case. I'd have to re. Look at that tape. But at least watching this game, man, it was not at all designed to get him the football. And he's in line all the time instead of on the slot, which I don't love. And that's been proven through time to not be good for fantasy. There's times he's used as a blocker. It just doesn't chip and release. There were so many chip and release plays for Brock Bowers in this game, especially in the first half. So I don't know, I just, I don't have much confidence right now in him returning value. I, I still want to believe in him. He's a generational talent, but he has to get healthy.

[Jacob]

I was pretty encouraged by the Raiders in, in week one. It was an easy matchup, you know, so I didn't want to overreact to it. But like a lot of the route concepts we saw I liked. But since then, yeah, the line is a huge problem.

[Dan]

Right.

[Jacob]

And that was part of what I was excited for with Bowers was that we might have more upside than just the short stuff that we could maybe see him get more one on ones down the field, be able to get some yak that wasn't just catch and turn around and everybody swarming you. And that came through like the line being able to protect Gino, which by the way, Gino had a 66 pressure rate this week. That's partially on him though. His average time to throw is 3.5 seconds. He only got the ball out quick, 2.5 seconds or less on like 8% of his throws. It was like the third lowest game of any quarterback qualified quarterback out of like 5,000 quarterbacks over the past 10 or 15 years. So like he needs to get the ball out quicker. But also the line is definitely not playing well. We obviously see that in the run game and so we're hoping the run game would be good. That would be a threat to defenses, that would open more up for Bowers. There's a lot of things going wrong basically is where I'm at. Like obviously the injury, but also the, the ecosystem is not very good. I just looked it up in week one he had a 23 first rate target rate in the first half. No, that's not right. Sorry.

[Adam]

Come on, Jacob.

[Jacob]

I know.

[Adam]

Can we charge you with any stats?

[Jacob]

36 first retarget rate in the first half. This is courtesy of the Fantasy points data suite. So 36 is really good. He had a 32 target share overall with a 9.5 yard average depth of target. So there were. That's the way I remember in the first half was like, wow, he's getting some explosive plays. How many yards did he get?

[Adam]

He had a great 3/4 in the first half. He had hit 103 yards in 3/4. So I. Okay, I. I think I feel confident chalking this up to the injury and I wouldn't design my offense around Brock Bowers if he's not moving. Right.

[Dan]

Yeah. That's fair.

[Adam]

Yeah. And they have a fairly early buy. They have a week four, five, six, a week eight by. It's not the worst. It's not the earliest, not the latest.

[Jacob]

I think there's some hope, especially if they're able to get the run game going at all because I don't think Geno's played very well. Obviously everybody saw the island game against the Chargers, but just as a whole, I don't think he's played up to how he's played in the past and still like they've for trying to do that. And I wonder if that's sustainable. Chip Kelly when he's drawn up. But like, we've seen pretty surprising efficiency from guys like Trey Tucker who's never been any good at like creating with his opportunities.

[Adam]

So. So let me get away from Bowers and address the full question here is are we done drafting tight ends in rounds two and three?

[Dan]

I might be.

[Jacob]

Trey McBride feels like he's totally on track.

[Dan]

Yeah, McBride's been fine.

[Adam]

Yeah, I think so. I. Look, obviously you could have drafted Tyler Warren. That looks like a great pick right now. You could have just added Juwan Johnson. I'm skeptical that Joanne Johnson. Let's see what Joanne Johnson looks like in. In another five week, another three weeks or whatever.

[Jacob]

How about Dan's guy, Jake Ferguson?

[Adam]

Ferguson could be a huge deal if Lamb misses time. And by the way, they've already addressed it. The Cowboys have already addressed it. The four to six week timetable, I think was just what high ankle sprains often are. So they are not giving any timetable.

[Dan]

Sorry for reiterating a report I saw from a credited reporter.

[Adam]

No, but he, but he did not report that Lamb is out four to six weeks. I think. I think. Okay, if you read it again, I. I think he probably could have been worded a little bit better. I think what he was trying to say was high ankle sprains are often in the four to six week range.

[Dan]

So I think what I know is I'll never try to break news on this podcast again.

[Adam]

I don't think. I just think, think. I think the mid round tight ends are often horrible values and that's what I think. Kind of look that way right now, but as usual, not draw any conclusions through three weeks. And let's get a, let's get a nice night from, from Sam Laporta tonight. We need a nice night and then I'll go. I'll be two in one in baked burger.

[Dan]

I mean you can't give. You see how good my team is in that league? It's just filthy.

[Adam]

Yeah, it's, it's amazing. I had neighbors in Wandale so I had like a 90 something percent chance to win and now 50. 50.

[Dan]

Oh really? That's what happened. I didn't even know you were playing for now you've really gone back and forth on like tanking to playing now.

[Adam]

It'S like I, I, I don't have my first round pick so I'm not.

[Dan]

Gonna have to listen.

[Adam]

I gotta tell you something, Dan. I'm gonna end with this. I, unless you want to hear the concert story too. But it's a busy weekend for me so I told Dan I'm playing this guy in tennis on Saturday. This was Friday. We were having this discussion. Yeah, Saturday I'm playing this guy in tennis. He's really good. I want to see how I measure up because I feel like, I feel like I can play with him, you know. And he's one of the better players on the, on the 3, 5 team that I'm hoping to join next year. So we, we only had an hour and a half to play so we decided instead of sets we're going to play up to 10 games.

[Dan]

Interesting.

[Adam]

The score was 10. Oh, 10 bagel.

[Dan]

You lost 10 0.

[Adam]

What do you think?

[Dan]

I'm hoping not.

[Adam]

I lost. I lost. Teno. I did not play poorly. I pretty well.

[Jacob]

Okay.

[Dan]

Okay. He's that good. He shouldn't be a 35 then.

[Adam]

He is the most precise.

[Dan]

Is he hand is. Wait a second. Is he a sandbagging tennis player? I didn't know that was a thing.

[Adam]

He doesn't hit hard. He doesn't have a big surf. He is the most accurate player. He has great drop shot. He puts the ball anywhere he wants. He wore me out the second game of the match went to nine or ten deuces and I lost and I was gone. I was like completely out of breath. This guy crushed me. But you know what? It was a humbling experience. I'm gonna get back on the horse. I'm playing again this week. Not against him, thank God. But I've got my work cut out for me, so.

[Dan]

It was a humble Stephen Ware. I see we're not giving fake news. I saw the report. I. It was worded poorly. I apologize. It's gonna be okay.

[Adam]

It was not the best tweet ever. It was like a high ankle sprain, which is usually four, which is four to six weeks.

[Dan]

But it's gonna be fine. We've corrected it since.

[Jacob]

Which backfields have the lowest combined XFP expected fantasy point numbers? So the whole backfield.

[Dan]

Oh, no.

[Adam]

Raiders.

[Dan]

Raiders.

[Jacob]

Raiders are Giants. Raiders are fourth lowest.

[Adam]

Bangle.

[Dan]

Giants.

[Adam]

Bengals.

[Jacob]

Giants are middle of the pack. A lot of targets for Cam Scatter Boo in week three.

[Dan]

This is factoring that in the passing game. Okay, I need to just.

[Adam]

Can we confirm or deny the Bengals.

[Jacob]

The Bengals are dead last.

[Adam]

There you go.

[Jacob]

For reference, the middle of the pack. Teams like The Giants are 21 expected fantasy points for the whole backfield on a weekly basis. The top teams are like 27, 28. The Bengals are 11. 11 expected fantasy points per week.

[Dan]

Wow.

[Jacob]

The whole backfield.

[Adam]

Who else is.

[Jacob]

This was a gold mine in the past. This was like a great fantasy backfield for expected fantasy points.

[Dan]

Yeah, I know. So Raiders are 4th worst. I would expect them to be higher.

[Adam]

Texans.

[Jacob]

Bengals.

[Dan]

Good one.

[Jacob]

Titans. Chiefs. Raiders. Texans.

[Dan]

The Chiefs is such a good one. Such a good call watching that last night for. You know, from that all 22 view, they generate nothing in the run game from a moving stand, but the Giants came in as a pretty bad run defense and they could not do anything in the run game. And they don't throw their running backs.

[Jacob]

Really.

[Dan]

So.

[Adam]

Yep. No, they. They don't. And then, of course, you've got.

[Jacob]

Well, they do. If it's behind the line of scrimmage and the running back's not facing the.

[Dan]

Right way, they'll do that. That was wild rep by Pacheco.

[Adam]

You got Kareem Hutton getting the gold.

[Dan]

He turned the wrong way. That was crazy.

[Adam]

Yeah, it was wild. All right, we're out of here. Thanks for watching and listening, everybody. We will talk to you next time on Fantasy Football today and beyond the box for see you later. Paramount Podcast. What's up, everyone? It's the counselor of Cash Sia Najad from the Early Edge, a daily sports betting show powered by Sportsline and part of the CBS sports podcast network. If you're looking for the best bets, picks and analysis for the day in sports, we're your one stop shop. We're locked in every day with NFL bets and player props, college football picks and so much more. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Subscribe to the Sports Line YouTube page to watch us live at 10am Eastern Time every weekday. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long.

[Dan]

Good luck.