Fantasy Football Today — Beyond the Box Score: Worried About Jonathan Taylor? Pumped for Ken Walker? Sitting Emeka Egbuka? (11/24/25)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into advanced stats and trends to better understand some of this season's most confounding fantasy football questions. The hosts discuss whether concern for Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley is warranted, what to make of Ken Walker's usage, Emeka Egbuka's trajectory, and more. They also break down key backfield and wide receiver committee situations as fantasy playoffs approach, offering context from film study, usage metrics, and matchup analysis.

"Advanced stats from simple people."
— Adam (01:22)

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fantasy Tilt & the Nature of NFL Chaos

• NFL unpredictability and ‘tilt factor’: The hosts reflect on how the fantasy game remains chaotic and unpredictable, with breakout picks often not panning out and random events changing league outcomes.
• Emotional detachment: "I've come to this, like, fantasy enlightenment… I don't let this stuff bother me … it's so exhausting to always have these expectations."
  — Jacob (02:34)

2. Bucs Offense Uncertainty & Emeka Egbuka Dilemma

• Baker Mayfield Injury & Teddy Bridgewater doubts: Mayfield’s status clouds the outlook for Bucs pass-catchers, with little confidence in the Bridgewater alternative.
• Egbuka’s role changing:
  • Early season dynamite now replaced by low aDOT targets and missed deep opportunities.
  • "There's something about the way this offense is operating that has me scared about Igbuka rest of season. … a lot of around the line of scrimmage throws and those don't seem to create much after the catch."
    — Dan (06:49)
• Injury not the main issue: Adam analyzed film and concludes Egbuka looks healthy but says, "They're just not hitting on these big plays. They're not hitting on the explosives like they used to." (09:00)

3. Rams & Bucs Recap: Adams, Puka, and Running Back Committees

• Davante Adams scoring but with low efficiency:
  • On pace for 19 TDs but only 975 yards.
  • "If I saw a player whose 17-game pace was 74 catches, 975 yards, and 19 TDs … Sell high, sell high, sell high … But I don't feel that way. I think he looks great. Stafford looks great. It’s just really weird to me."
    — Adam (11:13)
• Rams RB Kyren Williams committee headaches:
  • "He kind of just rotates series with Corum" (13:04)
  • Notified that red zone usage splits further muddy the waters.
• Colby Parkinson: With TE Tyler Higbee on IR, Parkinson is a potential deep league pickup after a 3-game TD streak. (13:10)

4. Cowboys vs Eagles: Offensive Lines, Play Calling, and WR Surges

• Eagles run game stagnation: Only 12 RB carries despite leading 21-0; heavy O-line worries and high pressure rate on Hurts highlight structural problems.
• Devonta Smith’s quietly elite usage: Game highs in target and air yard shares.
• George Pickens eruption: "He’s WR2 on the year behind only JSN … 100 PPR points for Pickens in five games since Lamb returned, 81 for Lamb. He’s just looking like a freaking stud."
  — Jacob (21:44)
• Shift in Dallas offense: Pickens' spike attributed more to schematic changes and favorable matchups than just Lamb’s health.

5. Analysis of Barkley, Henry, and the Plight of Workhorse Backs

• Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry disappointing:
  • Both hindered by offensive line regression, lack of red zone work, and dwindling receptions.
  • "Without the O-line creating yards, the big plays won’t be there, and without those, you’re relying on either red zone TDs … or receptions—which neither really offer. So, what are they offering at that point?"
    — Dan (35:08)
  • Barkley's main appeal has been lost with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.
  • Derrick Henry, by advanced stats, is seeing a career-worst year in success rate even when not getting hit behind the line:
    "He has one of the highest stuff rates in the league..." — Jacob (37:36)

6. Lamar Jackson and Ravens: Is There Still Upside?

• Lamar’s fantasy dip not strictly due to injury:
  • Recent ankle/knee issues plus team-wide struggles.
  • "He’s not taking off. I feel like he’s reluctant to run. That’s my impression over the last two games." — Adam (27:33)
  • Jacob: "I think he’s probably 80% of his full-self, but in any given year at Week 12, that’s about where he’s usually at." (29:55)
• Derrick Henry’s advanced stats:
  • Sharp drop in avoided tackles, explosive plays, and efficiency, even outside O-line influence.
  • Jake: "As close as I can get to isolating it, it looks like the worst year of his career… clearly worse than last year." (37:36)

7. RB & Committee Usage Rapid Fire

Snap Rate & Usage Trends (41:30+)

• Tyron Tracy: 72% snap rate, multiple red-zone carries, trending up but role stability unclear.
• Kenneth Walker: Four straight games out-snapping Charbonnet; red-zone workload up post-bye.
  • "It kind of seems like it's leaning more and more towards Walker … red zone snap rate up from 30% to 55% post-bye."
    — Jacob (71:46)
• DeAndre Swift vs Kyle Manangai: Swift's week-12 fumble triggered a shift toward Manangai, who out-snapped him thereafter.
• Colson Loveland (TE): Season-high route rate, notable if injuries occur to other Lions' pass-catchers.

8. Jameer Gibbs’ Emerging Role

• Red zone dominance & bellcow touches: "Now he's getting all this concentrated usage in one of the NFL’s best offenses. … If we drafted right now, he’s live to go 1.01."
  — Jacob (49:13)
• Dan on Gibbs’ acceleration:
  • "It's unlike anything we've seen since CJ2K … I don't see any reason why it would slow down. He needs to be on the field." (49:57)

9. Playoff Decisions & Droppable Lottery Tickets

• Basil Tootin & other committee backs:
  • Playoff-hopeful managers can't afford to stash low-floor, uncertain roles.
  • "If you need to win, you have to make drastic decisions sometimes."
    — Adam (52:28)

10. Jonathan Taylor & Colts: Brutal Schedule Warning

• Taylor’s fantasy playoff schedule: Four of next five against top-7 run Ds (Houston, Jacksonville, Seattle, SF).
• Jones’ regression: "Everything lately looks more like the guy that we know … I'm pretty nervous."
  — Jacob (63:20)
• Adam’s summary:
  • "If you're looking at your lineup and you got Jonathan Taylor, there's nothing you can do about it. But you might not have incredible production." (68:42)

11. Ashton Genti: Floor vs. Ceiling & Unsustainable Scoring

• Steady, but unspectacular volume:
  • Only one carry >20 yards all year, RB13-15 in various formats.
  • "We talk about him like he's a huge bust…I'd call him a mild bust."
    — Adam (59:00)
• Jacob skeptical of TD pace:
  • "Touchdown pace is one per game … that's, like, ridiculously unsustainable. If I were setting a projection, it’d be 0.25." (61:24)

12. Ken Walker’s Upward Trend

• Red zone and snap share swing in his favor:
  • Out-snapping Charbonnet, getting more high-leverage work.
  • "If he can just give us, you know, two to three catches … You’ll have a higher floor, he won’t kill you."
    — Adam (72:57)
• Future matchups: Week 17 vs. Carolina, Week 14 at Atlanta both considered favorable.

13. Quick Hits & Noteworthy Snap Counts

• Christian Watson’s resurgence:
  • Highest route rate of the year, trending up with injuries in Green Bay (51:31)
• Other committees (brief mentions):
  • Saints rookie Devin Neal high snap rate/target floor, Patriots’ backfield role shifts, and Cincy’s pass-catching funnel.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "My tilt factor has gone down by such a significant amount… Now I've also maybe found that enlightenment."
  — Dan (03:32)

• "It's exhausting and fatiguing to always have these expectations…but I've got no control. What's the point of being mad about it?"
  — Jacob (02:34)

• "Just this is what the situation is. And I'm sorry if you have Derek Henry."
  — Adam (34:57)

• "[Gibbs] eliminates angles from safeties and linebackers through his acceleration… This is Chris Johnson again."
  — Dan (49:57)

Important Timestamps

• 02:34 — Fantasy enlightenment & letting go of tilt.
• 06:49 — Emeka Egbuka's downward trend explained.
• 10:20 — Puka Nakua, Adams, Rams RB workload.
• 21:44 — George Pickens’ ascension; Eagles' offensive line troubles.
• 29:55 — What’s wrong with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.
• 37:36 — Data showing Derrick Henry's falloff.
• 49:13 — Jameer Gibbs’ RB1—you should want him everywhere.
• 52:28 — Playoffs advice: drop your stash RBs if you need to win.
• 61:24 — TD pace and sustainability for Ashton Genti.
• 68:42 — Jonathan Taylor’s daunting closing stretch.

Final Takeaways

• If you roster Taylor, Barkley, or Henry: Temper expectations. Their O-lines and lack of passing-game involvement severely cap upside.
• Ken Walker: Arrow up; more red zone work and strong matchups mean a safe start.
• Jameer Gibbs: Should be valued among fantasy’s absolute elite RBs.
• Eagles & Ravens: Offensive line woes and pressure concerns could drag their stars down; don’t be shocked by volatility.
• Roster management: It's time to prioritize weekly production over lottery ticket stashes as playoffs near.

Listen to the full episode for deep-dive stats, rapid-fire committee insights, and more in-the-weeds fantasy football discussion from Adam, Dan, and Jacob.