Beyond the Box Score: Worried About Jonathan Taylor? Pumped for Ken Walker? Sitting Emeka Egbuka?  (11/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today — Beyond the Box Score: Worried About Jonathan Taylor? Pumped for Ken Walker? Sitting Emeka Egbuka? (11/24/25)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into advanced stats and trends to better understand some of this season's most confounding fantasy football questions. The hosts discuss whether concern for Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley is warranted, what to make of Ken Walker's usage, Emeka Egbuka's trajectory, and more. They also break down key backfield and wide receiver committee situations as fantasy playoffs approach, offering context from film study, usage metrics, and matchup analysis.

"Advanced stats from simple people."
— Adam (01:22)

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fantasy Tilt & the Nature of NFL Chaos

• NFL unpredictability and ‘tilt factor’: The hosts reflect on how the fantasy game remains chaotic and unpredictable, with breakout picks often not panning out and random events changing league outcomes.
• Emotional detachment: "I've come to this, like, fantasy enlightenment… I don't let this stuff bother me … it's so exhausting to always have these expectations."
  — Jacob (02:34)

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2. Bucs Offense Uncertainty & Emeka Egbuka Dilemma

• Baker Mayfield Injury & Teddy Bridgewater doubts: Mayfield’s status clouds the outlook for Bucs pass-catchers, with little confidence in the Bridgewater alternative.
• Egbuka’s role changing:
  • Early season dynamite now replaced by low aDOT targets and missed deep opportunities.
  • "There's something about the way this offense is operating that has me scared about Igbuka rest of season. … a lot of around the line of scrimmage throws and those don't seem to create much after the catch."
    — Dan (06:49)
• Injury not the main issue: Adam analyzed film and concludes Egbuka looks healthy but says, "They're just not hitting on these big plays. They're not hitting on the explosives like they used to." (09:00)

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3. Rams & Bucs Recap: Adams, Puka, and Running Back Committees

• Davante Adams scoring but with low efficiency:
  • On pace for 19 TDs but only 975 yards.
  • "If I saw a player whose 17-game pace was 74 catches, 975 yards, and 19 TDs … Sell high, sell high, sell high … But I don't feel that way. I think he looks great. Stafford looks great. It’s just really weird to me."
    — Adam (11:13)
• Rams RB Kyren Williams committee headaches:
  • "He kind of just rotates series with Corum" (13:04)
  • Notified that red zone usage splits further muddy the waters.
• Colby Parkinson: With TE Tyler Higbee on IR, Parkinson is a potential deep league pickup after a 3-game TD streak. (13:10)

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4. Cowboys vs Eagles: Offensive Lines, Play Calling, and WR Surges

• Eagles run game stagnation: Only 12 RB carries despite leading 21-0; heavy O-line worries and high pressure rate on Hurts highlight structural problems.
• Devonta Smith’s quietly elite usage: Game highs in target and air yard shares.
• George Pickens eruption: "He’s WR2 on the year behind only JSN … 100 PPR points for Pickens in five games since Lamb returned, 81 for Lamb. He’s just looking like a freaking stud."
  — Jacob (21:44)
• Shift in Dallas offense: Pickens' spike attributed more to schematic changes and favorable matchups than just Lamb’s health.

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5. Analysis of Barkley, Henry, and the Plight of Workhorse Backs

• Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry disappointing:
  • Both hindered by offensive line regression, lack of red zone work, and dwindling receptions.
  • "Without the O-line creating yards, the big plays won’t be there, and without those, you’re relying on either red zone TDs … or receptions—which neither really offer. So, what are they offering at that point?"
    — Dan (35:08)
  • Barkley's main appeal has been lost with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia.
  • Derrick Henry, by advanced stats, is seeing a career-worst year in success rate even when not getting hit behind the line:
    "He has one of the highest stuff rates in the league..." — Jacob (37:36)

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6. Lamar Jackson and Ravens: Is There Still Upside?

• Lamar’s fantasy dip not strictly due to injury:
  • Recent ankle/knee issues plus team-wide struggles.
  • "He’s not taking off. I feel like he’s reluctant to run. That’s my impression over the last two games." — Adam (27:33)
  • Jacob: "I think he’s probably 80% of his full-self, but in any given year at Week 12, that’s about where he’s usually at." (29:55)
• Derrick Henry’s advanced stats:
  • Sharp drop in avoided tackles, explosive plays, and efficiency, even outside O-line influence.
  • Jake: "As close as I can get to isolating it, it looks like the worst year of his career… clearly worse than last year." (37:36)

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7. RB & Committee Usage Rapid Fire

Snap Rate & Usage Trends (41:30+)

• Tyron Tracy: 72% snap rate, multiple red-zone carries, trending up but role stability unclear.
• Kenneth Walker: Four straight games out-snapping Charbonnet; red-zone workload up post-bye.
  • "It kind of seems like it's leaning more and more towards Walker … red zone snap rate up from 30% to 55% post-bye."
    — Jacob (71:46)
• DeAndre Swift vs Kyle Manangai: Swift's week-12 fumble triggered a shift toward Manangai, who out-snapped him thereafter.
• Colson Loveland (TE): Season-high route rate, notable if injuries occur to other Lions' pass-catchers.

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8. Jameer Gibbs’ Emerging Role

• Red zone dominance & bellcow touches: "Now he's getting all this concentrated usage in one of the NFL’s best offenses. … If we drafted right now, he’s live to go 1.01."
  — Jacob (49:13)
• Dan on Gibbs’ acceleration:
  • "It's unlike anything we've seen since CJ2K … I don't see any reason why it would slow down. He needs to be on the field." (49:57)

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9. Playoff Decisions & Droppable Lottery Tickets

• Basil Tootin & other committee backs:
  • Playoff-hopeful managers can't afford to stash low-floor, uncertain roles.
  • "If you need to win, you have to make drastic decisions sometimes."
    — Adam (52:28)

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10. Jonathan Taylor & Colts: Brutal Schedule Warning

• Taylor’s fantasy playoff schedule: Four of next five against top-7 run Ds (Houston, Jacksonville, Seattle, SF).
• Jones’ regression: "Everything lately looks more like the guy that we know … I'm pretty nervous."
  — Jacob (63:20)
• Adam’s summary:
  • "If you're looking at your lineup and you got Jonathan Taylor, there's nothing you can do about it. But you might not have incredible production." (68:42)

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11. Ashton Genti: Floor vs. Ceiling & Unsustainable Scoring

• Steady, but unspectacular volume:
  • Only one carry >20 yards all year, RB13-15 in various formats.
  • "We talk about him like he's a huge bust…I'd call him a mild bust."
    — Adam (59:00)
• Jacob skeptical of TD pace:
  • "Touchdown pace is one per game … that's, like, ridiculously unsustainable. If I were setting a projection, it’d be 0.25." (61:24)

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12. Ken Walker’s Upward Trend

• Red zone and snap share swing in his favor:
  • Out-snapping Charbonnet, getting more high-leverage work.
  • "If he can just give us, you know, two to three catches … You’ll have a higher floor, he won’t kill you."
    — Adam (72:57)
• Future matchups: Week 17 vs. Carolina, Week 14 at Atlanta both considered favorable.

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13. Quick Hits & Noteworthy Snap Counts

• Christian Watson’s resurgence:
  • Highest route rate of the year, trending up with injuries in Green Bay (51:31)
• Other committees (brief mentions):
  • Saints rookie Devin Neal high snap rate/target floor, Patriots’ backfield role shifts, and Cincy’s pass-catching funnel.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "My tilt factor has gone down by such a significant amount… Now I've also maybe found that enlightenment."
  — Dan (03:32)

• "It's exhausting and fatiguing to always have these expectations…but I've got no control. What's the point of being mad about it?"
  — Jacob (02:34)

• "Just this is what the situation is. And I'm sorry if you have Derek Henry."
  — Adam (34:57)

• "[Gibbs] eliminates angles from safeties and linebackers through his acceleration… This is Chris Johnson again."
  — Dan (49:57)

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Important Timestamps

• 02:34 — Fantasy enlightenment & letting go of tilt.
• 06:49 — Emeka Egbuka's downward trend explained.
• 10:20 — Puka Nakua, Adams, Rams RB workload.
• 21:44 — George Pickens’ ascension; Eagles' offensive line troubles.
• 29:55 — What’s wrong with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley.
• 37:36 — Data showing Derrick Henry's falloff.
• 49:13 — Jameer Gibbs’ RB1—you should want him everywhere.
• 52:28 — Playoffs advice: drop your stash RBs if you need to win.
• 61:24 — TD pace and sustainability for Ashton Genti.
• 68:42 — Jonathan Taylor’s daunting closing stretch.

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Final Takeaways

• If you roster Taylor, Barkley, or Henry: Temper expectations. Their O-lines and lack of passing-game involvement severely cap upside.
• Ken Walker: Arrow up; more red zone work and strong matchups mean a safe start.
• Jameer Gibbs: Should be valued among fantasy’s absolute elite RBs.
• Eagles & Ravens: Offensive line woes and pressure concerns could drag their stars down; don’t be shocked by volatility.
• Roster management: It's time to prioritize weekly production over lottery ticket stashes as playoffs near.

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Listen to the full episode for deep-dive stats, rapid-fire committee insights, and more in-the-weeds fantasy football discussion from Adam, Dan, and Jacob.

Transcript

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[Dan Schneier]

What a play. Can you believe this? No, I can't.

[Adam]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league. Off to the races and he stays at his feet.

[Dan Schneier]

This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

All right, welcome to beyond the box score, baby. Advanced stats from simple people. And this is Fantasy Football today presented by BetMGM. Make it legendary. Today we're going to talk about the Colts offense. Tough schedule down the stretch. What do we think about Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor? Taylor coming off a really rough game at the Chiefs. How about Ashton Genti with a new offensive coordinator as Chip Kelly, fired by the Raiders today. And Ken Walker had an encouraging game, although you may not see it, you know, might not hit you right in the face, but we'll tell you why things were encouraging. How do we feel about him?

[Dan Schneier]

This?

[Adam]

There's going to be so much more we talk about. I think we're going to get to that Eagles offense against the Cowboys and of course the Rams and the Bucks. Happy Monday. Dan Schneier. What's up?

[Dan Schneier]

What's going on? I'm excited to be here. I took a little peek into the comments and see that the fans of the show are asking for a potential charity golf match between me and Schaefer producer Thomas next offseason. So I'm very excited about that. I already got that in my Calendar. I'm calling it a thing and we're going to make it happen. And I am going to get my, you know what kicked like you got yours in tennis.

[Adam]

Okay, well, I know who I'm going to be rooting for. Jacob, how are you? What's going on? How do you feel about the. About the Chiefs?

[Jacob]

Yeah, Chiefs got an important win. I'm doing. I'm doing pretty good. This is just. This is a funny time of season that we've arrived at here where, like, we kind of think that we know things. People feel like they know things, and so they almost feel like they're entitled to that, like, playing out. But it's not. We're still in the midst of chaos. It's still the NFL. And so it's like, we think Bashaw Tutin is going to get this role or whatever, you know, and if you're like a sick, sick person like me, you like thinking that Terrence Ferguson is going to get more playing time or whatever, and a lot of it just doesn't come to fruition exactly the way you think it'll go. So it's been fun to kind of dig into all of this and yeah, I don't know, I feel like I've come to this, like, fantasy enlightenment or something where I don't let this stuff bother me, which is so nice. Like, I feel like it can be so. So exhausting and fatiguing to like, always have these expectations and want things to go your fantasy team's way and to be able to just be like it. I've got no control over that. Like, what do you. Yeah, what's the point of being mad about it?

[Dan Schneier]

Oh, it is funny that I feel like over the years of doing this. Sorry, Adam. I just want to get this in real quick. Like, I ha. My tilt factor has gone down by such a significant amount. Like, as I'm watching the games and watching my teams lose or something bad happened to me, I used to get so mad. And now I have also made maybe found that enlightenment that Jacob Hazards. It's gonna happen. It's gonna be random. It's gonna be chaotic. We just gotta let it play out.

[Adam]

Totally. And you know what? When you get asked about the same players all the time and it just goes to show you that I don't know what's gonna happen with Lamar Jackson. You know, we could do all this deep dive. It's just so unpredictable. But I don't want to, you know, minim. Trivialize what we do. We can obviously look at things that help. I'm not saying that there's no way to be good at predicting, you know, sports, but it is, obviously, you know, it is tough. It is tough. And there's so many things that we can't control. So I agree. However, with that said, if I lose in the fantasy football today league Again, I've lost three. Three weeks. Me and Dustin three. My partner donated to St. Jude. Three weeks already this year. Maybe four by four or fewer points. If we lose again tonight, we're up by about 25, facing Brock Purdy. That's it. I'm freaking done. I'm never doing another show. So I agree with all of your enlightenment stuff, but if it happens again in the FFT league, I'm done. I'm going. I'm going ballistic. I'm going postal. Get the hell out of my way.

[Dan Schneier]

Okay, well, we better get that rant on air is all I can say. And that first comment better not be true. This. We cannot even come close to afford to lose. Adam. Adam Mazer. I hope Brock Purdy doesn't score tonight. Yikes. I mean, I have a similar situation, Adam, but up six with Christian McCaffrey against Brock Purdy. Before you say, oh, you're the easy favorite, understand this is a league that awards 0.25 points or, sorry, 0.5 points per completion.

[Adam]

You're done.

[Dan Schneier]

0.5. I am done. I am the one who is done.

[Adam]

Yeah. All right. Rams 34, Tampa Bay 7. Obviously a very disappointing game and it was a. It was not. Say it would have been a blowout, but it was pretty one sided even at halftime. And Baker Mayfield missed the entire second half. So it's hard to answer questions about what the Bucks are going to look like next week. We don't know who their quarterback will be, whether it's Bridgewater or Mayfield. We think Bucky Irving has a good chance to play in Week 13. They're facing Arizona, which is a really good matchup for running backs. We see it week after week after week, but you know, what kind of rotation do they have there that's uncertain? So it's really a lot of uncertainty rest of season for the Bucks right now. But the one guy that I'm seeing a lot of questions about is a Mecca Buka. Just give you a quick, a quick Chris Godwin note. He's 68 rostered, 5% started he play, he ran about half the routes. And yeah, he was on the field for 18 routes. He had four targets. No other player had more than two targets. When Chris Goblin was on the field. So he did lead the team in targets, but it's all small sample size stuff. Anyway. Dan, how are you feeling about a Mecca Abuka who was Dynamite the first five games of the season, got hurt in week six. Last five games he's on pace for 952 yards and three touchdowns on 173 targets though. So how you feeling about a BUCA right now?

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah, so they've tried in each week and I've been grinding the tape on this to figure it out to dial up these deep concepts for him and he's gotten open on them every single time and the ball placement or the timing of the throws just hasn't been there. And that's what Baker Mayfield out there at quarterback, who's obviously actually not playing at the level we grew accustomed to last season. Now you take Mayfield out of that, I, I would imagine they're going to explore other options. Personally, I would think than Teddy Bridgewater. I, I, I don't, I don't really understand the Bridgewater thing at all from the start of it, like why he was signed, like why he's playing. To me he looks completely done for playing. Like he's just not in what I would consider deemed to be football shape. I don't know if you guys disagree on that based on what you saw. And it's tough to come in mid game, midweek, you know, with no reps with the first team. But I don't know, man, I don't see much hope there. So if we just assume Baker's there, because I think without Baker, Iguka becomes someone I would want to leave on my bench. If we just assume Baker's there. There's something about the way this offense is operating that has me scared about Igbuka rest of season. I think part of what made him so special was they were operating at high level, they were getting into the red zone. He was winning on a lot of those red zone routes and he was running more intermediate vertical routes. Like the route we saw him run in the second half where he caught that deep over from Bridgewater and kind of turned it into like a 30 yard game. The only play he really made all game. Those are the type plays we saw earlier in the season. Now his role seems to be, yeah, the 173 target pace is nice, but there's a lot of around the line of scrimmage throws and those don't seem to be creating much after the catch because no one's really respecting the Bucks using the screen game. As an extension of the run game. So for me, I'm very concerned with Igbuka with or without Baker, but obviously without Baker, he becomes someone that's just sitting on my bench.

[Adam]

Check out this play here. This is the third route of the game. 11 something minutes left in the first quarter. Abuka's at the bottom of the screen there. He put a great move. Yeah. Yep. All right.

[Dan Schneier]

And this.

[Adam]

This could have been a long touchdown. Baker Mayfield under threw the ball, unfortunately. I mean, a lot of his production of Buka was. Was big play Reliant. So those. Yeah, look, sometimes you're going to be two steps behind your defender and your quarterback's going to miss it or something like it happens. But he changed, you know. All right, here's the thing. I'm going to end it with this. This game we don't have to talk about for too long. He got hurt in week six and he didn't miss any time, and people were shocked. I think he had a hamstring injury. Based on what I saw last night. Watching. Watching the routes this morning, I don't think he's hurt. I think he looks fine. But they're not connecting on the big plays. I talked about that in the preview on Friday where Baker Mayfield's big play rate has been way down the last five weeks. And I was like, man, Mayfield and Buka have been bad three of the last four weeks, and now they're facing the number two defense in the league. Man, maybe we shouldn't be so optimistic. I was still fine with. With a book. Obviously, I was. I thought he'd be great, but it didn't work out. Rams are tough. Rams are really good. They're just not hitting on these big plays. They're not hitting on the explosives like they used to. Now we go over to the Ram side of the ball. This is. I'm obviously every week I'm frustrated with Kyren Williams and his usage, even though the production had been fine. But it is now seven of his last eight games with 14 or fewer carries. Sure you'll continue to start him. He's got Carolina next week. That's a very good matchup. Arizona, very good matchup. But what do you. Jacob, you have anything to say about Devonte Adams and Puka Nakua?

[Jacob]

Their studs feel you feeling better. Dan, about the devonte Adams hold and sending away Nico Collins?

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah, I. I took a lot of heat for that trade from Jamie and Adam.

[Adam]

When I brought it up, I was on your side. Don't tell me that.

[Dan Schneier]

No, no, not on the Adams vs Nico side of it. I'm just doing that type of trade. Meanwhile, like part of that trade was getting Jamis. It was the whole Giants quarterbacks. If I don't do that, I don't win this week for fantasy and I moving forward Flacco is going to be bench. So I, I don't know what I would have done. I wouldn't have started a QB at Super Flex. To me it was a must trade situation. But as far as Devonte Adams goes and if I'm feeling confident about it, Jacob, there's no real reason not to. Right? Like I think Adam broke this down so well in our show notes before the show. Like looking at Devonte's numbers, it's pretty insane how fantasy friendly his profile has been for the entire course of the season. Leading the NFL and red zone targets and green zone targets. And there was one other stat in there that I'm blanking on. Adam maybe.

[Adam]

Well, he leads an end zone targets. He has end zone targets this year. Puka Nakua has three. But what's amazing to me about Devonte, he's on pace for 19 touchdowns and he's currently averaging 16 and a half PPR fantasy points per game. If I saw, if I saw a player whose 17 game pace with 74 car catches, 975 yards and 19 touchdowns on 145 targets, I would say 70. Sell high. Sell high. Sell high. He's really bad in yards per target right now. He, you know, he, he's just scoring touchdowns basically. But I don't feel that way. I, I don't understand why the efficiency's been so bad. I think he looks great. Stafford looks great. It's really weird to me, so I'm just gonna.

[Dan Schneier]

Well, it does seem to me from watching him. Sorry, on my bed. I didn't.

[Adam]

Go ahead, go ahead.

[Dan Schneier]

It does seem to me, I'm curious to get both of your take on this. It does seem to me from watching that while Stafford individually has been unbelievable, obviously and I still think devonte Adams has really good release package off the line of scrimmage. They have like there's still some room to grow. I feel like with their rapport when it comes to those intermediate outbreaking routes, on all of them I feel like the ball placement's been a little off. Like devonte's had to jump a little for them. It's not just like hitting him coming out of his break that I think can improve. I also think when it comes to the efficiency standpoint and just the volume standpoint outside of the red zone. Part of this is just the Rams defense is so damn good. You get a lot of these games where, like Sean McVeigh sitting on the ball for an entire half. I've seen this happen a lot. This is like part of the Andy Reid experience. Like when these teams are these types of coaches and it's smart, right? Like them, they're up by this much going into the second half. They just sit on the ball and there's just no air under it for the rest of the game. For a fantasy standpoint, it is what it is.

[Adam]

I mean, I think it's obvious. You're starting Stafford, you're starting Puka, you're starting Adams. I do think Kyron is an interesting discussion.

[Dan Schneier]

He.

[Adam]

He kind of just rotates series with Corum, so we'll talk about that later.

[Dan Schneier]

Let's move on to guarantee to get all the red zone work. That's the scariest part.

[Adam]

He's not. If it's Corum's drive, Corum will not necessarily be in, but very likely be in. This happened last night when Adams caught his first touchdown from the one yard line. Kyron was in. When they were at the five yard line a few series later, Corum was in. Just what happens. And I tried to kind of bring it up and I felt like I was sort of poo pooed, but, you know, it's. He's not. He's. He's part of the. The today 2025 NFL where almost everyone's in a freaking committee now, and I can't stand it. Colby Parkinson is also interesting. He scored a touchdown in three straight games. Tyler Higby's on ir. We'll talk about him on the waiver wire show. If you need someone in a. In a deeper format. All right, we need you to get out and vote. You may not be aware of this. Jacob and Dan Fantasy football today is part of this 64 podcast or radio show bracket. Oh, I know the 64.com and we won our first round. All right?

[Dan Schneier]

We're heavy favorites or at least should have been.

[Adam]

Well, let's hope we're down as a seven seed. I don't know what seed we are. They're not. They're not seven seed. Well, listen, I don't know.

[Dan Schneier]

Seven.

[Adam]

I don't know.

[Dan Schneier]

Dan, is this based on any.

[Jacob]

This is.

[Dan Schneier]

This is. You're not offended by this?

[Adam]

Can you, can you please stop criticizing the bracket? These people were nice enough to put us in the field.

[Dan Schneier]

Listen, I'm glad we got us in the field. I would just like to have a word with your selection committee. That's all.

[Adam]

I have no issues with the selection committee. So we, we are now matched up against men in blazers and I think we only have one day to vote. So today or early tomorrow, please get out there and vote. Go to the64.com click on that first link. It's the sports radio link. I'm sorry, I don't know exactly what it says. You'll see it. And click on our matchup vote for fantasy football today. You can either do it with your phone. You just, they text you a phone number, you text, you type in the code and you vote for us. Or you can do it on Facebook. It's the 64 the64.com the64.com make it happen. All right, we got a lot of good stuff on beyond the box score this week. So tune into all those episodes and I got to get a break in here. And we'll be right back with your news and notes and Jacob's going to start talking soon, I promise. Been hogging the mic that those, those moments are done. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.

[Dan Schneier]

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[Dan Schneier]

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[Adam]

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[Adam]

Some news updates here Other than Baker Mayfield who is the shoulder injury, Aaron Rodgers is expected to play. I haven't seen anything on Genty Camara's got not a serious knee injury necessarily, but he might miss some time. Jalen Waddle missed practice coming off of the buy so that was interesting. But Darren Waller will practice this week. He scored four touchdowns in three games in three healthy games. Will Campbell it's not a torn ACL or anything like that. I think it's a sprained MCL for Will Campbell. I don't remember exactly. He could miss sometime. And their left guard Jared Wilson has a high ankle sprain. He's gonna miss some time so that's not great for the Patriots offense.

[Jacob]

I thought he was done though. Campbell. That's good to hear.

[Dan Schneier]

Yes. That would have changed everything for Drake May and for the entire fantasy outlook for them.

[Adam]

Trey Smith has an ankle injury. The chief star offensive guard see what the exact update there is, but that's going to be I think a few weeks for him. I got some more news coming in. I'll give it to you later. And let's get to Jacob Now. Jacob, tell us about some some metrics that caught your eye or anything you.

[Dan Schneier]

Want to talk about.

[Jacob]

Yeah. First, I want to let you all know that we're going to do fun beyond the box score show this week. Pretty excited for that. Normally it's just like giving you all the data that we can. And of course we're gonna do that as well.

[Dan Schneier]

Jacob, all shows are fun.

[Jacob]

Yeah. For us. I have been told they could be a little boring, but not this week.

[Dan Schneier]

We're bringing the energy the word you're looking for. Not boring. Dense.

[Jacob]

Yeah. Okay. Both we are doing an awards show and we're gonna go through like best quarterback pick, best running back pick, fantasy mvp, all this stuff. Look at which players have actually like helped win weeks and and swing matchups this league or this week and then look forward to the rest of the season and how that might play out for somebody like Jonathan Taylor Segway. We're going to talk about him today. Got some tough matchups so maybe he was an early season winner but not so much late season. So definitely tune in for that beyond the box score episode. Yeah, I'm glad we're finally done with that Bucks Rams game. I want to talk about the freaking Cowboys Eagles game yes. And this is present on my mind because I'm a Chiefs fan and we've got the Cowboys this week on Thanksgiving. But to me, like, the Cowboys are kind of looking dangerous right now. They're looking pretty good. And this was a statement game, of course, to dig out of 21 0. They played like. They played like the Cowboys that we've seen a lot to begin that game, but then they were able to dig out. I think that's really impressive. But it also says a lot about the Eagles and where they're at in a game that they were leading throughout. They didn't run the ball hardly at all. Really weird, right? Like, that's not what we come to expect from the Eagles, but they just haven't been able to run the ball. I think they had like 12 running back runs or something in this game. And again they got up 12, 21 0. That's super weird. So they throw a lot. It is this big AJ Brown game, but still Devonte Smith leads with targets, Leads with air yards, 31 target share, 56 air yardage share. So it looks really good for him. He's just such a student. But I'm. I'm worried about the Eagles. I'm worried about the line. Like the fact that they weren't willing to run the ball I think points towards their fear of what's going on with the line. And we got a 49 pressure rate for Jalen Hurts in this game. 2.46 seconds was the time to pressure. So a lot of pressure and it was coming fast. It wasn't just him holding the ball. There were a few times, I think, in the second half, especially where he kind of froze, but like they were getting there consistently throughout this game. So that is worrisome for the Eagles offensive line and then is also really intriguing, I think, for the Cowboys because the game before that was against the Raiders where they look so amazing and I was like, let's see, it gets an actual unit. So we'll see that. You just said Chiefs are missing Trey Smith. He's more of a run blocker than a pass blocker, but really interesting stuff for the Cowboys. And of course, if you got anything on the Eagles, go ahead and go. But of course, the. The most interesting takeaway for, for Dan and I here is George Pickens, just dominating, like even in this matchup, just looking like the best player on the field. He's wide receiver two on the year behind only Jackson, Smith and Jigba. And the five games since CD Lamb has returned 529 receiving yards for George Pickens in those five games. Over 100 yards per game since CD Lamb has returned compared to 410 for Lamb. 100 PPR points for Pickens in those five games since Lamb has returned 81 for Lamb. He's just looking like a freaking stud.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah. So there's a few things I want to pack first. I want to start on the Eagle side of it. A big factor in this and one of the most underrated and easy ways to change a defense or to change really a fantasy outlook for defense and the matchups they. They have moving forward is adding an interior disruptor. And that's what Quinn and Williams is. I think yesterday he had the most pressures in his career with the Cowboys and he got hurt. And I think he played through the injury. I'm not sure if he's re. Injured it. I. I see in the comments that he's injured again. I'm not sure that would change their entire outlook. Quinn and Williams completely changes the Cowboys defense. I predicted he would and I knew he would and he is doing that. He's playing motivated. He's playing much better than he did with the Jets. And that defense is becoming a problem. They can get pressure on the quarterback and they're not as exposed on the back end with their own coverages because of that. So that's the start. And obviously Lane Johnson not there when it comes to that offense moving forward. Like, I'll get your guys take on this in a moment. Barkley, man, it is one of the most disappointing things you can get in fantasy. Like the whole idea was don't draft him because he has 400 touches. I didn't subscribe to that because I thought the offense would still be elite. He's not even injured by any means and he just can't score in fantasy football because they can't generate anything on the run game. He doesn't get any of the red zone touchdowns. It's really just un. You would think like at one point they'd give Barkley a carry inside like at the one or two yard line just to give him a ton.

[Adam]

I agree.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah, you agree, right? Like, it doesn't always have to be the push.

[Adam]

I have a lot of Jalen hurts and they got down. I forgot who it was. Pickens, maybe whoever has had like got down to the one and I, I was like, you know what? I just have this feeling they're gonna give the ball to Barkley. He deserves one.

[Dan Schneier]

And they did.

[Adam]

They certainly did not. And I was happy give it to him.

[Dan Schneier]

So it's really become a massive problem because there was a lot of stats that led me to like Barkley in the off season which were like look, there were so many Barkley's carries that got stopped at the one or two yard line this year. Those, you know, if they go an extra yard or two, he'll get a lot more touchdowns. Right. But that's not going to happen because we've seen it. So I've lost a lot of faith in that entire, in everyone. But Jalen hurts in that offense. Obviously A.J. brown is getting more design looks so that's good. He's fine. You can start him. You can start devonte Smith. Like they're going to get you some production at times but it's very inconsistent on the flip side of the ball. George Pickens. Thank you for bringing him up. Jacob. This is my preseason flag plant. My most roster player in every league and I went back and doubled down on last week's show as a flag plan for a league winner. But as far as what I've seen from him, it's better than I could have even expected. I think maybe Lamb's injuries playing a role in this. I'm curious if you guys think that. Or is it just that defenses have shifted so much of their attention to Lamb that Dak is just taking advantage of these one on ones because that's what we project in the preseason.

[Jacob]

I. I think it's mostly the latter.

[Adam]

I think it's just kind of a fluke. Honestly. I think they're both awesome. My Pickens is playing at such a high level. He's doing so much after the catch is really good. But over the next four games or five games it wouldn't surprise me if Lamb were better than Pickens. I don't know. I. It's because Pickens lines. You know, Pickens lines up outside.

[Dan Schneier]

He.

[Adam]

He gets the tougher cornerbacks I'd say more often than than Lamb does.

[Jacob]

Yep.

[Adam]

And it's not mattering. Not that Quinn Mitchell was following him. I think Mitchell basically just stayed on his side. But whatever the reason, I don't even. Honestly, I don't even care to speculate on the reasoning. It. It doesn't matter. It's amazing what's happening right now and Cowboys are Cowboys offense is. Is just producing fantasy points. I'm not so sure about the Cowboys defense though because the The Eagles scored 21 points. That's what they average for the year. The Eagles aren't a good offense. The Eagles are a below average offense. So I am pretty convinced about the Cowboys. Convince isn't the right word. I'm. I'm, you know, thinking they probably have a good run defense now. I'm not sure that I'm sitting wide receivers or quarterbacks against the Cowboys even considering that. We'll see what Mahomes crappy Mahomes does against them. But I'm not quite there yet because, like, the Raiders aren't a good offense and neither are the Eagles. I'm sorry to say it, but we're 12 games or 11 games in for them. They're averaging 21.4 points per game. That ranks 19th in football. That's just what they are. That's what they scored yesterday. But that's the thing. Like, but what do I do with this A.J. brown game? Am I buying back into A.J. brown? He. I don't even think he was a top 40 wide receiver going into this week. Am I all of a sudden I'm starting him again? I don't know.

[Jacob]

Like I said, it was still devonte Smith dominating the usage. That's how it's been pretty much all year. After the first couple of games last week being the one exception where they forced the ball to AJB I, I wouldn't want to be buying into AJ Brown. I think you just are holding him if you've got them and hoping for the best. Okay, I want to transition to the Ravens if that's good with y'. All. I think they're an interesting corollary here where it's another team where we've got this running back who completely dominated the league last year, but we're seeing a bit of a fall off this year. Both Henry and Saquon Barkley. How much. How much of that do you blame on the circumstances? How much of that do you blame on the actual running back? Can you trust them going forward? The Lamar Jackson discussion is really interesting too, especially for fantasy. He's giving you like what, 12, 12 fantasy points or something over the last two weeks?

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah, right.

[Jacob]

That's what I'm talking about. Or somebody was giving me grief in the comments about my fantasy enlightenment stuff and saying that that was just kind of a cop out for me. Like, you know, having getting calls wrong or whatever and just being like, oh, it doesn't matter. That's not what I'm saying at all. Of course I own whatever we give you in terms of advice. But like Lamar Jackson averaging five and a half points over the past two weeks, who the hell could have ever predicted that, that's what I'm.

[Adam]

He's hurt.

[Jacob]

I don't know. I watched him and he doesn't look that different to me. None of his rushing metrics are any different, even since he's gotten back. His rushing metrics this year are good, like advanced, missing, making people miss, getting yards after contact, stuff like that.

[Adam]

But he's not running. That's, that's what he's. He's sitting there in these pockets and no one's open and he's just, he's not taking off. I feel like he's reluctant to run. That's my impression over the last two games. Your thoughts?

[Jacob]

I, I don't have the numbers here, but I'm pretty sure he ran a handful of times at least in this past game. One of which, like, he took a hit, you know, going for it, being like initiating the contact, being aggressive. I didn't think he looked that much different. There were a couple misses in this game, like he missed on an intermediate throw that he's usually money on early in the game. He overthrew a sideline shot to Hopkins late in the game, but he misses those. Honestly, if you watch a lot of Lamar, he just misses those shot. Sometimes. To me, like, I don't, I think the running is. I don't see any indication that the running is diminished. He hasn't made it any like huge electric plays, but we're talking about like a two or three week sample size and that can just kind of happen, right? Well, like, he's not, I mean, obviously he doesn't rush for 80 yards every single game. So, like, if he doesn't break a long one.

[Adam]

So my, my issue with the. You're 100, right? Over his last two games, he has 11 carries for 21 yards. I just think that last week he had, I think a knee issue and this week he had an ankle issue. They were different injuries than the. I know he had hamstring, knee, ankle. I can't remember the order. One of them caused him to miss those three games. Then he came back. He was seemingly healthy for Miami. He didn't really run, but he threw four touchdowns. And then the last two weeks, then he had the Minnesota game. The last two weeks, injury pops up, he misses Wednesday, then he practices and he plays. New injury pops up the following week, misses Wednesday, practice, pop, then he play, practices and plays. So to me, that is the only thing I'm not worried about. Lamar Jackson. I, I think I've said this like six times now, but I think Bateman will help him because I just think they have garbage receivers other than Zay Flowers right now. I mean Andrews is good, but I, I just, I just don't think he's. He's explosive right now because of these new injuries. But that's just me. I don't know if that's true. It is alarming to see this horrible rushing production. Two straight games and two like unbelievably bad games from him.

[Jacob]

It's. Yeah, it's been horrible for the office as a whole. Like I've got numbers on that. The third worst success rate in a game as an offense in the Lamar Jackson era, the worst since 2020. This is the worst that the team's rushing success rate has been in any Lamar Jackson game ever.

[Dan Schneier]

So which points to something you pointed I saw. I don't know if you're leading.

[Jacob]

Let me get, I get why people are worried and sounding the alarm here, but I don't think I would point towards Lamar. I just watched every play in the game. I think he probably is like 80 of his full health self but at. In any given season at week 12, he's probably like 85 or 90 of his full self. He didn't. He looks like he's healthy enough to play and run. To me it's like Derek Henry's not playing nearly as well on runs where Derek Henry has at least gotten to the line of scrimmage before initial contact. He's 26th in EPA per rush. He's 42nd out of 59 qualifiers in success rate. Last year he was second and 11th in those metrics. And I even removed runs of 60 or more yards from last year because his longest run this year is 59 to try to make it, you know, similar to this year when he gets to the line of scrimmage. So I'm trying to take out the runs where the line is the problem or defenses are stacking the box. He hasn't been good. He's been below average. His rushing yard of expectation looks okay, but it's not nearly as good as last year. Last year he led the league in rush yards over expectation. That's prediction stats. His timed speed is down slightly per next in stats. Even on his long run he had a 59 yard run. It was not as high as like I think, I think he had like six, five or six higher timed runs last year. And then the last thing is avoid attacker rate 25 last year. It's 9.5% this year is Derek Henry's avoided tackle rate. Last year he Only had one game where he did not have multiple avoided tackles. He had games of 6, 7, 8, 8, 10, 12 avoided tackles. Those are individual games. He stopped out at five this year. Five, four, three, three, two. Those are his best games. He has one or no avoided tackles in over half of his games this year. To me, this is the bigger problem is like last year he was dominant and that made it where the offense was impossible to defend and it just hasn't been that way this year.

[Dan Schneier]

I think that extends though, like I think for me that extent. Sorry Adam, do you have something on that?

[Adam]

No, no, I just said wow. But I think, I think I know where it is.

[Dan Schneier]

A wow stat, right? Like, look at those numbers. Like it just shows you the difference. But is it all just Derrick Henry falling off or is it the same factor that just got the highest paid offensive coordinator to the NFL fired, Chip Kelly? The offensive line is not playing good football in Baltimore. That's what I see when I watch this team. And that's the difference between last year when they were able to dominate up front and create a little bit of space for Henry, which kind of dictated everything they did off of play action and in their past game in general, which was extension inside sometimes of what they did off their run game with Henry. That's just not there this year. They've dealt with injuries, there's players coming back in and out of lineup, but it's not performing at a high level. The Ravens offensive line. And that's what I see when I watch this football team. When you don't have a high functioning, like how many good fantasy offenses do we have? Adam, you may have a good memory on this. How many good fantasy offenses have there been with awful offensive lines?

[Adam]

First of all, I don't think I would call Baltimore's offensive line awful.

[Dan Schneier]

It doesn't look good to me, but.

[Adam]

I don't know that it's awful. But yeah, I mean Henry didn't look.

[Dan Schneier]

Good against the Browns. It was awful against the Browns. We can say that, right? Or is that just all Lamar, like, no other way awful then Lamar's not processing and he's not seeing it well. But from a Henry standpoint, like. Or Henry has completely fallen off.

[Adam]

I think the only team that's had maybe that I can think of that's had maybe an awful offensive line recently and great fantasy production.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Would be the Bengals.

[Dan Schneier]

You know, that's a good one.

[Adam]

Yeah, the Burrow the Borough Bengals. But that's not this offense here. They're not throwing the ball A bunch of times. Derrick Henry's yards before contact per carry last year was a ridiculous 2.41. This year it's 1.26. It's basically half. But if you look at his career, that's actually one of the higher numbers of his career. That's the third. 1.26. Yeah, it's the third highest.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah, he's had horrible situations.

[Adam]

Fourth highest. Sorry. Fourth highest. And he's averaging 4.7 yards per carry. This is what. If you listen to the show yesterday, for all of you, I was blown away by Derek Henry's yards per carry. It's like, really, he's averaging 4.7 yards per carry. That's doesn't feel that way. He is part of this group of players that you are probably going to start him every week unless you have a great team. But when you look at your team and you're going through your. Your teams and you go, all right, do I have a shot? Am I going to win the championship in this league? You look at your team and you've got these players. I mean, I got JSN, you know, I've got Christian McCaffrey. Derek Henry is not one of those players. Saquon Barkley's not one of those players. We could sit here and try so hard to explain what's going on, but I think this is kind of what we were talking about earlier. It's like at some point, just this is what the situation is. And I'm sorry if you have Derek Henry. I know he's. He had a good game yesterday. You know, he scored the touchdowns. But how can you sit there and feel super confident every week with Derrick Henry? How could you feel super confident with Saquon Barkley? I don't. I feel. I think they're in the same group.

[Dan Schneier]

To me, they are in the same group and it's borne out by the stats. I think this is the key to it. They're not in the same group for me rest of the season. Just to be clear, I think Henry's going to outscore Barkley by a considerable amount.

[Adam]

I'm not so sure.

[Dan Schneier]

Just because the schedule is so much, so much easier. That's the only reason. But okay, they're the same group of, like. These are not backs that help you in fantasy from a passing game standpoint on a consistent basis. It's why players Jacob and I really tout in the preseason, like Christian McCaffrey types and Chase Brown, who obviously, you know, went through it, but is now coming back to it. That get involved in the past game are so much different. When you have a player like Barkley or Henry, you're relying on two. Three things. One, touchdowns. Because you're expecting the offense to be really good. That's not the case with the Ravens offense. That's not the case with the Eagles offense. Two yards created before contact to lead to explosive plays. They're both explosive playback runners, Henry and Barkley. That's why they scored last year. That's why they were so good in fantasy. But both players have seen their yards created by their offensive line fall by half. And Barclays is even worse. The Eagles went from like 3.4 to like, whatever they're at this year, which is awful. So without the offensive line creating yards, the big plays are not going to be there. And without the big plays not going to be there, you're relying on either red zone touchdowns, which Barkley doesn't get, Henry at least gets, or receptions, which have never been a part of either of their profiles. So you just lose. So what are they offering at that point?

[Adam]

It's been part of Barkley's profile in the past. But I get what you're saying.

[Dan Schneier]

Not with the Jalen hurts. Yeah.

[Adam]

No, not with Hertz. I feel the same with Judkins. One of our commenters says, yeah, I mean, that's a great call.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah.

[Adam]

I'm not gonna sit here and say, you should sit, Judkins, because these guys get so much work that they could easily have a two touchdown game.

[Dan Schneier]

Right.

[Adam]

And then someone says, is Bijan Robinson in that group now? No, I don't think so.

[Dan Schneier]

I don't know. Is he not?

[Adam]

I don't think so. Jacob plays, too, and he makes them, though.

[Dan Schneier]

He does get them, though.

[Jacob]

I just feel way, way, way better about his floor. Because he gets receptions, right?

[Dan Schneier]

Yep, yep.

[Adam]

But you're worried about. I mean, sure. I mean, I understand being worried about Bijan having looked that bad, by the way.

[Dan Schneier]

I want to put that out there.

[Adam]

All right.

[Dan Schneier]

For those who are completely worried about that state of that Falcons offense, we.

[Jacob]

Got a cousin's bomb. That's crazy.

[Dan Schneier]

Got a cousin's bomb that was pretty well timed and pretty good ball placement. He had a couple out passes that scared me. They floated in the air really high and then dropped into the receiver, but did get there. The arm isn't what it was, but I think that I'm not. I was, shockingly, surprisingly, because my expectations were so low, a little bit enthused by what I saw from the Falcons.

[Adam]

That was very encouraged I was, shockingly, surprisingly, because my expectations were so low. A little bit enthused. I love it. All right, let's take a break.

[Jacob]

Can I just close on the Henry thing?

[Adam]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Jacob]

On runs where he at least got to the line of scrimmage before initial contact, he has a 6% stuff rate, which is double his rate last year. It's the highest rate in the NFL. This is what I'm. My problem with Henry. He has one of the highest stuff rates in the league. Last year was pretty good. And this is why I. I contextualize it by cutting out all the plays where he got hit in the backfield.

[Dan Schneier]

Okay.

[Jacob]

Because when he's getting a lot of scrimmage, he's just not finding as much success. Right. And that's not going to be perfect at isolating ever. Exactly what Henry is doing all on his own. And what's a problem with the offensive line? Some of those plays he gets to the line and then there's more guys there than last year or whatever. It's not as clear of a path. I don't know. I'm not. But, like, as close as I can get to isolating it, it looks like the worst year of his career and, like, clearly worse than last year. Another way just is the percentage of runs where he got to the line is not that much different than last year. Last year was 44. This year it's 50. As a Titan, it was higher than that. Last year. The line played surprisingly really good. This year, I think it's been slightly below average. And there's been. The difference between the two is much wider. I think the difference between what we got last year from Henry and what we're getting this year from Henry, and I do think that's a problem for the offense.

[Adam]

Yep, fair enough.

[Dan Schneier]

We agree.

[Adam]

All right, let's take a break. Got some more stuff to throw at you here, including Jonathan Taylor and his brutal schedule. We'll be right back.

[Jacob]

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[Adam]

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[Jacob]

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[Adam]

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[Dan Schneier]

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[Dan Schneier]

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[Jacob]

Visit J.D. power.com awards for more details Chevrolet together.

[Dan Schneier]

Let's drive.

[Adam]

What's up?

[Dan Schneier]

It's Draymond Green.

[Adam]

I'm back for my 14th NBA season and my podcast, the Draymond Green show is back too.

[Dan Schneier]

This season I'm breaking down games, reacting to to the biggest NBA stories and sitting down with teammates, rivals and culture shapers. And trust me, I'm not holding back on the court or on the mic.

[Jacob]

Two new episodes every week.

[Adam]

New segments, big conversations, real basketball talk for the real hoop heads.

[Dan Schneier]

Listen to and follow the Draymond Green show wherever you get your podcast.

[Adam]

We're back.

[Dan Schneier]

We're better. Let's get it. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime Black Friday game day on prime is an epic day of live sports. It all starts at 9am Eastern with the Capital One skins game. Then Black Friday football returns when the Bears take on the Eagles at 3pm and it culminates with the final night of Emirates NBA cup group play with bucks Knicks at 7pm and Mavs Lakers.

[Adam]

At 10pm Black Friday game day only on Prime. All right folks, just some injury updates. So Will Campbell, he didn't have a season ending injury necessarily. He didn't have one of these oh man, surgery. But he might go on ir. He might miss time. They might not get him back until the playoffs. So for the Patriots sake, they they could. It's possible. Just based on what I'm reading right now, it's possible that they are going to be without the left side of their offensive line. I think they'll be allowed to have substitutions for them. I don't think they'll have to use three offensive linemen, but the starting left tackle and left guard could be out for the rest of the regular season or close to that. Maybe the fantasy season for New England. So that's kind of a bummer. And Baker Mayfield, I think it's looking like a sprained AC joint or the preliminary reports.

[Dan Schneier]

And that timetable on that is.

[Adam]

Oh, Billy Bowman for the Falcons cornerback. He tore his Achilles. That stinks.

[Dan Schneier]

Anything on Rashid Rice?

[Adam]

No, we think she Rice maybe had cramps but he only played 65 of the snaps and he 62% of the snaps and he had eight catches, 141 yards on 12 targets. He's pretty good.

[Dan Schneier]

Oh yeah.

[Adam]

Jacob, was there anything else you wanted.

[Jacob]

To get to in terms of snaps.

[Adam]

And stuff or you're in Big Topics or whatever before we get to some of the other stuff we were going.

[Jacob]

To mention, I've got a ton of notes on snaps, which is hilarious if we don't have time for them because every other week I'm not prepared because I don't know if I'm gonna do it this week.

[Adam]

Go for it.

[Dan Schneier]

We'll rapid fire the others.

[Jacob]

Okay. Tyrone Tracy 72 snap rate, 23 touches, three or four rushes. Running back runs from inside of the tin with a 75 red zone snap. Right. He's averaging 113 scrimmage yards across his past three games. Are you guys buying the Tyrone Tracy rule has changed. So we're not going to see he's met a single theory?

[Dan Schneier]

No, that's a good question.

[Adam]

But I'm not not buying it. I'm just not sure I like that.

[Dan Schneier]

The red zone look that he's starting to mix in a little bit there. I'm not buying it just yet.

[Adam]

I think it down to the one yard line or the two yard line.

[Dan Schneier]

I think they handy Singletary.

[Jacob]

Okay. Kenneth Gainwell 52 snap rate 49 to Jalen Warren. In the first quarter it was a little bit more Warren, which is kind of what we saw last week. But as the game went on, they just went more and more. Gainwell 65 route rate for Gainwell, 6 targets. Only a 32 route rate for Warren, no targets. How are we feeling? Are we nervous about this one at all? Do we think it shifts back to Warren as the year goes on?

[Adam]

No, it's giving me an upset stomach. It makes me want to be on the toilet for the, for the rest of the fantasy season. All these committees. I absolutely hate it. I hate fantasy football. But yeah, thank you for bringing that up.

[Dan Schneier]

I mean, I'd be nervous. I'd be more nervous if it wasn't. Well, I guess I say I should be nervous because this has kind of been Arthur Smith's MO as an offensive schemer and play caller for his career. And then we had a little bit of a run with Jalen Warren getting that more of a workhorse role. So. So I guess just leaning on that I should be nervous about Warren. Rest the season.

[Jacob]

64 snap rate for Kenneth Walker. That's four straight games. He's out snapped Charbonne. We've got more on Walker for you guys.

[Dan Schneier]

There he is.

[Jacob]

Your boy got more Walkers coming up. Encouraging stuff at the time of the DeAndre Swift Week 12 fumble. So when Swift fumbled before that it was a 61 snap rate for Swift, 39 for Kyle Manangai. From that point on it was 63, Managai 35 Swift. Managa got nine rushes, Swift got two. Managa out snapped Swift five to one in the red zone from that point on. I've got a couple charts here. It maybe it's just this one week was a blip on the radar and it'll get back to Swift after this. But here's the yardage production on a like month to month basis. Manangai has more yards per game this month than Swift. It kind of feels like he's been overtaking him. This one is the rushing success rate. So early in the year Manangai was not running as successfully as Swift. Lately he's been better and then obviously fumbles. Two to Swift, zero to Banangai is where we're at with these two on the year. So something to keep an eye on.

[Dan Schneier]

Yep.

[Adam]

That's, you know, that's kind of interesting though because I think before this game it seemed like DeAndre Swift had a stranglehold on the fantasy points here. Well, in the sense that he's coming off a 21 carry game where Manangai had 12. The week before, Swift had 13 carries, Manangai had seven. Swift is playing more on passing down Swift. When the team's trailing in the fourth quarter, which they usually are. Swift would be in the game there. So I didn't really feel like Manangai was making inroads. I felt like he was for a bit and then Swift reclaimed. Swift is playing very well before this game so I'm interested. I mean, look, I was, I thought you were wrong about Gainwell on Sunday morning and you were, you nailed it. I'm not gonna necessarily doubt you, but I, I didn't see this trend. I just think that this most recent. I don't know, I think this most recent game is kind of clouding the picture a little bit because before this game I feel like Swift was clearly ahead of Manangai.

[Jacob]

Mananga's been really, really good. I've talked about him at length on beyond the box score. I think people have a good idea where I'm at with this and it just. Everything from the coaches following that huge game that he had when he filled in and carried them to victory. From that point on they've just been like hot hand. And people have been like, no, they're not going hot handed. Swift is the clearly back. I'm like, well, I think he's just had the hot hand. Like he came back and played the first game back. I, I think that this backfield is up for grabs and one of the backs has been dealing with some like groin hip injuries. Like he's been on the injury Report for three straight weeks. I. I would lean towards the rookie continuing to get more involved even if Swift is the lead back and stays healthy. The rest here. I do think Managa is going to keep getting involved and has potential to pop off for games like this if things break his way.

[Dan Schneier]

Okay.

[Jacob]

70 route rate for Colson Loveland highest this year in a game not affected by Cole Comet injury. It was 58 last week so really love to see that.

[Dan Schneier]

We were gonna get the big game in the first half. I really did. He didn't have another catch after.

[Jacob]

Yeah, yeah, he's. He's so freaking good. I don't know that it's gonna matter for Fantasy this year because I do think they're gonna go really run heavy to close things out here looking at their schedule and the weather and everything. Yep. But he's really, really good and if there is a commit injury or anything or even like a wide receiver injury, I think that he would be somebody who can maybe start week to week and gives you upside. Harold Fannin Jr. Another rookie tied in here we haven't heard much from lately. I don't think that that's in a him issue. I think that's a Cleveland Brown issue. 33 target share this week 81 route rate. That's the best in a game that David and Joku has played. He has a 20 target share in every game since week five. So that's just a note for probably dynasty players or like deeper leagues, tight end, premium, stuff like that. He's been really, really consistent. Harold Fantasy.

[Dan Schneier]

I watched that tape. Brown's just wanted to get a good feel for Sanders offense. He is such a phenomenal player. He had two plays after the Cats. That were just very few times.

[Adam]

I thought you were talking about Sanders when you.

[Dan Schneier]

No, no, not Sanders. Not Sanders. The very few players in the NFL can make a fan and I just feel like I like that he may be something down the stretch because he's there. He's provided this like outlet for Sanders on these third downs where it's like he'll chip and release and it's like San is not processing the defense at all on these third and long situations. So he's just going to check down to Fanon a lot.

[Jacob]

I think those look like against all odds throws to me, brother.

[Dan Schneier]

Against all odds. A third and 10 completion.

[Jacob]

Jameer gives some really interesting notes here. Just after last week having his career high in snaps, he topped that again. He had 54% of the Lions offensive touches and which is the highest of any Player last week. It's the first game for Gibbs above 50%. Here's his red zone percentages. 59 of the running back runs. You can see it's been going up year over year. 41 of the red zone opportunities, runs or targets for anybody on the team that's been going up year over year. That puts him in the same range on the year as Christian McCaffrey. 53, Jonathan Taylor, 46, Eric Henry, 41, Ashton Genti 44 gives us at 41%. So he's already been running back one in EPA outside of the red zone by a wide margin. If you look at like here's these are splits from outside of the red zone. He has 10 scrimmage touchdowns outside the red zone. 2900 scrimmage yards outside of the red zone since the start of 2024. So that's like right up there with saquon barkley on 100 fewer touches by far the best weapon outside of the red zone. And now he's getting all this concentrated usage in the red zone on one of the best offenses. So it definitely looks like, I mean if we drafted right now, he's live to go one on one is basically where I'm at with Gibbs.

[Dan Schneier]

As he should. I mean first of all, their offensive line is creating better than they have. They're starting to really mesh. At least they have in the last few weeks. There are so many runs against the Giants where he's just untouched the second level. And if you can get a player like him untouched the second level, the way that he accelerates and the way that he eliminates angles from the safeties and the linebackers through his acceleration is unlike anything that we've seen on tape or as fans since CJ2K. This is Chris Johnson again over the same like the same type of player early Chris Johnson when he was breaking off for 2000 yard seasons, I don't see any reason why it would slow down. Like the Lions need to win football games. They're competing for the division. He's the best player on their team on their offense. He needs to be on the field.

[Jacob]

CJ2K on a good offense with 12 targets, right?

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah, exactly.

[Jacob]

Got a couple Patriots notes. One of them sucks. One of them mostly sucks too, honestly. But it's. It's kind of okay. The kind of okay one is Trayvon Henderson at a 69 snap rate outside of the red zone and 17 of running back. 17 of 20 running back rushes outside of the red zone. This is what you don't want to hear though. 42 snap right in the red zone. Only one of five Patriot running back runs in the red zone with or Andre Stevenson back. And if you didn't think that was bad enough, all that stuff on digs hype that I pushed last week. Not looking great with keisha on booty back. 85 route rate for booty, only 54 for diggs, so that was one of his lowest marks of the year after being a season high last week. We'll keep an eye on it, but not a good development.

[Adam]

No. And wide receivers continue to be disappointing against the Cincinnati Bengals. And one of the reasons, two of the reasons. They're so bad against the run and they're so bad against tight ends. All that production goes to tight ends. All right, now it's time for football at BetMGM. Register with BetMGM to get instant access to the best variety of parlay selection features. No sweat and boost tokens, live betting options, and much more. New players can receive up to 1500 dollars back in bonus bets with the bonus code fantasy if they don't win their first bet. You don't want to miss out on any of the hard hitting action at BetMGM. Place your money line parlay bets and more today. Bet MGM. Make it legendary. Anything else sir?

[Jacob]

Yeah, people asked if Tutin is droppable. It wasn't a good week for the tutin usage. 21 snapshare so that was his lowest since week six. The ankle injury did not look good when it happened. It looked like it could be serious so I I don't know what to do with the injury reporting out of Jacksonville. It sucks because it seemed like he was fine but then he barely played at all. It was like pretty much all ETN early in the game. Only 21 snap rate. Also jags relevant 69 route rate for Bren Strange. So right away he was in a fairly significant role and I think he's gonna be a really important piece for them. I think he really helps the run game too. We finally saw him get some explosive plays back in their life this week. Last note is Christian Watson. 91 route rate for Christian Christian Watson. That's his highest rate of the year by far. 41st read target rate for Watson. He's at over 2 yards per hour run this year, which is where he's always at. So like seems like he's back and healthy man. There's a lot of other injuries in Green Bay, so just wanted to make that note.

[Adam]

Listen, we've got the playoffs coming up so if For a question like is Basil Tootin droppable? It really depends on your record. I mean, you just can't afford to hold on to. Maybe you can, but for many of you, you just can't afford to hold on to lottery tickets or even guys are going to be in a committee. If you need to win now, if you need to win next week, I don't know that we can confidently tell you to start. Basil Tutin, sure there's a chance that he gets his role. You know, the role we saw two weeks ago and the ankle was the reason why the limited role. But we just don't know. So think the rules are different going into week 13 than they were going into week eight or whatever. This is not a criticism of Basil Tootin or anything, but just you have to win. If you have to win, then you have to make drastic decisions sometimes. So go for it. I have a few snap count things. John Metchie and Adonai Mitchell, they both played about 85% of the snaps met. She had a big game. And Shimeri DK or Chimray DK played 80% of the snaps. He's now done that three times this year and he has eight, three and seven targets for 16.4, 1.5 and 15.4 fantasy points. That's Chimray DK. So in two of three games where he's had 80 or more of the snaps, those would be without Calvin Ridley and in this case without Elic IO Manor. He's come through. He's been good. Micah Sicki out snap. Noah Fant. Noah fan barely played 18 snaps and drew Sample out snapped Mike Kasiki. So I picked up Noah Fan. I spent quite a bit of fab on him in a must win game and whoops. Someone asked about dropping Darius Slayton, who I really think you know, had some appeal. But it seemed like they were splitting Hodgins and Slayton in two receiver sets.

[Dan Schneier]

Hurt. That's the problem. He's playing hurt.

[Adam]

Well, I don't know if he's getting that roll back. You know, I think yes, you can drop Slayton because it's. He's. His snap count was down with Hodgins there for the Giants. Aaron Jones was interesting is I was really disappointed at the running back splits. Nine carries for Jones, eight for Mason and you just. Can Aaron Jones give me a 15 carry game for once?

[Dan Schneier]

Doesn't matter.

[Adam]

So what does matter because you know, he's an efficient running back and lead running backs matter. Mason, Jordan. Jordan. Mason only played 12 snaps Aaron Jones played 66% of the snaps. This day and age where I'm having stomach issues because of all the committees, that's a pretty good split. So why were the carries the way they were? Mason got six of his eight carries on one possession. They had two carries as a team in the second half. These two running back carries. So look, is it great for Aaron Jones? No, I don't think it's as bad as what it looked like on paper is what I'm trying to say. He still dominated the work in that backfield.

[Dan Schneier]

Is that now what we would consider to be. Well, probably not the word. That's the third worst offense in fantasy. I don't know.

[Adam]

They're bad.

[Dan Schneier]

Raiders worst. Thomas can probably help us out. Who's after.

[Jacob]

I don't even think they made it inside the 30.

[Dan Schneier]

They didn't make it inside the 30. Only it didn't seem like that. Don't you know, I didn't look into that, but. Oh my God.

[Jacob]

Don't think they did.

[Dan Schneier]

Oh my God.

[Jacob]

Another offense that struggled, the Saints. I just. We need to mention 74 snap rate for rookie Devin Neal. He had 11 PPR points in a game where he had seven carries for 18 yards and no touchdowns. He's still PPR points because he's kind of Neil. Yeah, he gets a lot of.

[Dan Schneier]

I mean, it's a little six, seven type thing.

[Jacob]

Yeah, sure, yeah. 60, 69 route rate. Like he gets the targets inside, so it doesn't really even matter that much. He does on the ground game if you're playing ppr.

[Adam]

And I'll just finish with this. Running backs who averaged 35 or more snaps per game over the last five seasons, including this season, 35 or more snaps per game with a minimum of 80 carries. 22, 22, 24, 24. This year, 19 running backs are currently averaging 35 or more snaps per game. Nausea, heartburn, indigestion, upset stomach. That's the Pepto Bismol song.

[Dan Schneier]

All right, I'm dying at this comment from Forest L7W said Schaefer started. Yes.

[Adam]

Yes, that is a great call. I was thinking about Clerks the other day.

[Jacob]

Is.

[Adam]

I would never, ever recommend that movie to someone.

[Dan Schneier]

Why?

[Adam]

I just don't think there's a chance in hell that more than 1 in 10 people today in 2025 find clerks funny.

[Dan Schneier]

I. I found it funny from that standpoint.

[Adam]

It's so niche and it's like kind.

[Dan Schneier]

Of outdated that standpoint. I didn't know where you were going with this. I thought you Meant from like the cancel culture stand. But you mean just from the niche side of it. Like I'm sure those I haven't watched in a while. I'm sure those jokes won't fly today, but I think it's like take the neat that side out of it. I think a lot of people would still find it very, very funny. I can't even. I was just about to like recall two of my favorite moments that movie. I literally cannot say them on air. So I'm just not going to now.

[Adam]

All right. Buy or sell from Kelly. Chip Kelly's dismissal will be a notable positive for Astro Genti's fantasy prospects.

[Dan Schneier]

Sal, sell. Sell as hard as I can sell. I mean, like, look, I saw some breakdowns. Ted. Ted wins one of my favorite guys on Twitter for breaking down film and he covers the Raiders extensively and he showed some stuff that's like eye opening. Like there's third down situations where the Raiders are running a two man route combination where it's two verticals on the outside and when Geno Smith hits the top of his drop, there's just nothing possible because the two guys are running verts and there's nothing. It's like there's weird stuff going on in their past game, but their run game should have been at its best with Kelly. Putting anyone in over Kelly is going to be bad for their or neutral for their run game. Their run game has nothing like their lack of success in my mind has very little to do with Kelly and almost all to do with the single worst offensive line in the NFL.

[Jacob]

It's hopeless.

[Dan Schneier]

It's hopeless. When you have an O line that bad, it's hopeless. I live this. I know this. I'm a Giants fan. I covered this team. We've had hopeless offensive lines at times that generate nothing in the run game. In the past game, scoring anything. When you have a hopeless O line, it's over. It doesn't matter what coach you bring in. Fire this guy, fire that guy. There's no talent on the O line. I don't know when Colton Miller is coming back. I don't know if he is. I don't know when Powers Johnson is coming back. I don't know if he is. It's hopeless.

[Jacob]

There might be good games because he's really good and you know, like he can make big plays. But outside of that, no, I don't want to go there at all.

[Adam]

Guys.

[Dan Schneier]

Yes.

[Adam]

Agreed on surprise.

[Dan Schneier]

So expensive. He might randomly score sometimes.

[Adam]

This is going to surprise you. First of all, he has one carry all year of more than 20 yards. So he hasn't been explosive. But you might be surprised to know Ashton Genti per game is RB15 in non PPR and half PPR and RB13 in full PPR.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Since his horrible first three games, he has averaged 17.5 PPR fantasy points per game. We're talking about Ashton Genti. Like, he's a huge bust. I would call him a mild bus. I'm not saying.

[Dan Schneier]

No, he's not a huge bust. He scored a lot of touchdowns. Right. It's all just touchdowns.

[Adam]

No, it's what I mean, it's catches.

[Dan Schneier]

He's used a good amount. Yeah, because they have no off. They have to use an extension of their run game, the short passes.

[Adam]

I'm. I'm a little concerned. The catches come down because they've thrown the ball an unusually high amount. The last three of the last four games, 39 or more pass attempts, and he's had a target share of 20 or higher in three straight games. That's not super repeatable unless you're Christian McCaffrey or Devon HN, basically. But he is really involved and he does have tough matchups coming up. But it's, you know, it doesn't even matter. Like, they. They can't run the ball on anyone. So I actually think that Genti is a little bit ahead in full PPR of Barkley and Henry. Am I crazy?

[Dan Schneier]

A little bit ahead. Rest of season, you mean?

[Adam]

Yeah, like, if you're. Who would you.

[Dan Schneier]

If I would. I was three, who would you say? It's a fair question. Regarding Barkley, I would still take Henry. The schedule is so much easier.

[Jacob]

I would take those guys without question. I think there's way more upside. It is touchdowns. He has seven touchdowns in the past eight games. And I think that that's, like, wholly unsustainable. And that's like this. So what I'm saying basically is, like, this is kind of the best version of him. Like, I think for fantasy right now, what we're getting. And it's okay. It's fine. But like, the best version for those guys could be much, much better because those offenses can be good. The best version.

[Adam]

They can. And Henry has the Bengals in two of the next three games, so.

[Jacob]

Yeah, and the matches are awful for the Raiders, too.

[Dan Schneier]

Like, aren't they awful for Barkley, though, too?

[Adam]

No, but it, like, he scored okay. He's. He faced Denver. He scored 15.3 fantasy points. He faced Cleveland yesterday, scored 24.8 fantasy points. He faced Jacksonville. They Have a really good run defense. He scored 19.9 PPR fantasy points.

[Jacob]

Yeah, I know that he scored fantasy points. I don't think he's. I mean, his touchdown pace during like the game, just to see your sampling is one per and I just think that's like ridiculously unsustainable. If I were setting a projection touchdowns for him each week, it'd be like 0.25 or 0.35 or something like that.

[Adam]

Right. But Barkley has the same issue. And Genti at least is catching passes. I'll definitely agree with you on Henry.

[Dan Schneier]

Well, I mean, I'm with you, Adam. I might consider Hingenti over Barkley at this point.

[Jacob]

Floor is probably pretty similar to Barkley on a per game basis, but I also think that there's a much higher chance of him getting rug pulled. Like we saw him get freaking crushed in this past game. That's been happening over and over and over. And if the season just goes down the toilet, like, I just don't know how long you do that. Maybe they just do it all year.

[Dan Schneier]

That's a good question. Yeah, I don't know about. That's a fair.

[Jacob]

I want, at the end of the year, I want players that are on teams that are playing for something if I can, ideally, you know.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah, yeah, for sure. That's fair.

[Adam]

All right. This is from Maddie. Buy or sell Daniel Jones verts to. You know what? I'm going to combine Maddie and whoever asked me about Jonathan Taylor. Lou, what do you guys think about the. The Colts offense, essentially, because they finish with Houston at Jacksonville, at Seattle, San Francisco and then Jacksonville in week 17. Jacksonville, terrible pass defense. Really good run defense. Houston, great at everything. Seattle pretty much great at everything. Better against the run. San Francisco, horrible pass defense, but pretty good against the run. But, you know, I'm not sure I buy it. Not like the other guys, but four of Jonathan Taylor's next five opponents ranked top seven in yards per carry allowed to running backs. And he hasn't actually been that great in. In games against those types of opponents. There have been five of them. Two huge games, one game and two crappy games. Including last, including yesterday at Kansas City. So, Jacob, what's your confidence level in the Colts offense down the stretch?

[Jacob]

Not super high. They're also dogs in three of these five games, which I think is relevant for Jonathan Taylor. I think it's much better if they're playing with a lead. I've got some Daniel Jones stats that will make you feel better, Dan, particularly like. I feel like for the first month of the season there, it felt like we were taking crazy pills, you know, but lately it's kind of all come crashing down. So throws of 10 or more air yards first month, 63% complete for Daniel Jones since then. 49, 15 off target rate in the first month. Since then it's 22%. So not as accurate down the field under pressure. This is the one that's. That really shocked me. He's playing so great under pressure in the first month. 49 success rate on under pressure drawbacks in the first month, that's down to 35% since then. 10% off target rate in the first month is up to 18%. Nearly doubled 8% sack to pressure rate in the first month. That was the one that blew my mind. That was like top of the league. And that's not who he's been in his career, right? It's 21 since then. During his time as a member of the giants, it was 21. So right in line with what we've seen since the first month on non play action dropbacks. He had a 57 success rate in the first month of the season. He was above 50 in every game across the first month. So I, I think that's relevant because the play action game has really boosted things for this offense. Shane Steichen's done a phenomenal job of layering things off of the run game to find spots to attack. But when, not when just like straight drop that game, like, what does it look like? It was actually still pretty good in the first month. And so like all this stuff was leading us to ask questions like, is Daniel Jones, like actually good? Like fine, you know, is it not just the hand holding? Is he actually doing enough outside of that to like warrant optimism for Jones? And like, I think that's where a lot of people landed. His like dynasty perceived value is shot through the freaking roof. But lately it's kind of looking like the guy that we know. So I said it was 57% success rate on non play action drawbacks of the first month. Since then it's 49, which is a pretty decent drop in terms of success rate. 28 against Kansas City. Success rate on non play action drawbacks, there's only 37 the game before that against Atlanta. So that's just two games. I don't want to overreact, but like, everything lately looks more like the guy that we know. And I just do wonder, especially if we get into games where they're not able to play with a lead when you're playing with a lead, you can do more pre snap motion, you can do more action and stuff like that. If they're having to play from behind and not able to lean on the play action game in the run game as much and it's in Daniel Jones's hands, I'm pretty nervous is where I've landed.

[Adam]

Look at this throw here. Look at this image. What was he thinking? This was one of a few just awful throws he made into coverage that should have been intercepted.

[Dan Schneier]

Well, he's predetermining.

[Adam]

Yes.

[Dan Schneier]

The passes he still leading the NFL and first read target percentage. So this is just, just kind of, you know, if it's not there, it's gonna look bad. There was one that was even worse. The one that he like threw into three Chiefs defenders and they ran into each other as the only reason they didn't intercept it. That was just a predetermined throw. Pretty snap to post. The problem is like I'm so. I'll start by saying this. I'm more concerned with Taylor living up to his expectations, he's built for himself than Jones down the stretch. Pretty much because of the way you broke it down, Adam. Three of those defensive matchups over the rest of the season are bad pass defense. I guess on paper, Jaguars are a bad pass defense. That remains to be seen because it does depend on the coordinator in my mind. I really like what the Steelers did to Jones. I really like what Spagnolo did to Jones. It's very different than what a lot of these other defenses have done. It's put a lot of guys on the line of scrimmage, draw and mix. Like there was a play on third and three where the Colts needed it to win the game. It was the game changing play for the Chiefs where Spags did something so awesome. He had his entire defense rotate pre snap to one side of the field right at the end of the play clock as it's winding down. 10 seconds, nine seconds. And Jones is like trying to make checks, he's trying to audible because obviously the play that Shane Siken drew up for him and he's a first read guy, wasn't there and so he's doing that and then the clock's winding down, winding down and Zach just rotates right back into what he had at the start of the snap. So Jones is now like, oh crap, I just made this check based on what I saw. But he's rotated back there. He snaps the ball and it's like he has nothing to do and he throws something off target and he misses that third and three. It depends if defense coordinators are going to play more aggressive against Jones. I think that's the recipe to stop this offense. Dictate to him. Don't let Steichen dictate to you. You dictate to him. And I don't know how many defenses are going to do that, though. Like, maybe the Jags will do that. But I, I still think I have more confidence somehow in Jones than Taylor because I think the, those run defenses that you outline that Taylor has rest of season, that scares me.

[Adam]

Yeah, but he's Jonathan Taylor. I mean, he's such a good year. It can't just be matchups. The guy was on pace for 2, 000 yards. I think, I don't think he still is, but he just scored 49.6 fantasy points against Atlanta. You go look at Jameer Gibbs's game log, there's, there's some bad ones in there. I, I, I mean, Taylor, I think Jamie said it.

[Dan Schneier]

So I want to be clear when I say that because it's going to sound bad. I want to make what I was trying to say clear. What I meant is the expectation of what he's built for himself. He's building stuff this weekly. Like, if he's in your lineup, you're winning your lineup. I think we're going to start to see down the stretch.

[Adam]

Yeah, I think it's basically what, what we talked about last night. Jamie said that or he said, I remember who it was, but, but I wouldn't rule it out because, you know, he is so explosive that he could just carry your team. But I think if you're looking at your lineup and you got Jonathan Taylor, there's nothing you can do about it. But you might, you might not have incredible production. Jones. I, yeah, it's, it's troubling. There were two plays in this game, man, that it was, I don't know if you're talking about the one that Josh Downs on third and four. It would have set up one where.

[Dan Schneier]

He threw like the little out. I don't remember who was two, but the two Chiefs defenders ran into each other. The only reason they didn't intercept, like, oh, one guy tried to intercept and the other guy, just like third and.

[Adam]

Fourth throw to Josh Downs would have set up first and goal and his miscommunication. Jones through the outside, downs went inside. Then they settled for a field goal. Then I don't remember the, the screen pass to Tyler Warren.

[Dan Schneier]

Oh, no, that one. He just rushed that one. He just threw that so early, maybe.

[Adam]

But the screen pass of Tyler Warren. Trent McDuffie made such a great tackle. That may have been a touchdown. That was cool for a field goal there. And let me show you this last play of the game for the Colts. Colts in overtime. They have third down and one near midfield. Look at Chris Jones, number 95. So he swim moves the center. He the. The right guard, I'm going to be on your left, is going to double, is going to come and help him out. And then the left guard takes number 32. So you have number 23 there. Go right in and destroy Jonathan Taylor for a loss. But it was really Chris Jones who took the center out of the play, basically. And Chris Jones was so good.

[Dan Schneier]

He had a great game.

[Jacob]

Yeah. Yeah. That's what I wanted to end with is, like, the Chiefs often make fun of opponents for, like, this is your super bowl, you know, against us or whatever, but, like, this was the chief Super Bowl. Kind of like, they really, like Chris Jones, like, gave it all. They gave it all, yeah. And as a result, we saw, like, them completely dominate the ball. So they're only 50 offensive plays for the Colts in this game. That's a season, though. They're averaging 62. The Chiefs had 91 plays. That's the most of any game all season by far. There are only two other games above 80. So, like, Kareem Hunt had 33 touches. That's approaching the total number of Colts plays. Like the Chiefs, we're just like, we've got to win this at all costs. And that means we're just going to dominate ball control and give cream on the ball over and over and over. And it's tough to get anything going offensively when you're in that kind of a game.

[Adam]

All right, so we got two and a half to three minutes left here. Napoleon has our last buy or sell. He says sell Ken Walker, the third. I think I'm. I think I'm ready to kind of buy it here. Boy, this guy. I hope some of you can see his. His runs. He was incredible in this game, and it wasn't just taking advantage of him. I don't even know if Tennessee is a good matchup anymore. They probably are, but he created so many yards for himself. He's so fast. I think the momentum is really moving into Ken Walker's favor. Very advantageous stuff here involved in the passing game. There is, of course, the Charbonnet issue. It's not going away, but I don't think it's as big of an issue as it once was. You guys feel that too?

[Jacob]

Yeah. What I've got on the screen here is just the snap rates over the past four weeks. You can see game by game he's out snap sharpening every game and it kind of seems like it's leaning more and more towards Walker and then to the Walker like Sharpenite red zone split note. He already has more touches from inside the 10 yard line this month in November than he did in September and October combined.46 red zone snap rate, 55% snap rate inside of the 10 yard line following the buy compared to 30 before that. So it feels like he should be, could be scoring touchdowns very easily. I know the sharpening stuff is frustrating and I've got no clue how it will go on an individual game. You know how many snaps are there inside of the 10 yard line on a game to game basis? Like 2 to 5 or something like that. Like you just don't know how that's going to play out. But the underlying usage stuff doesn't suggest that it's like clearly Charbonnet's role or anything like that. In fact it's looked better and better for Walker as the year's gone on.

[Adam]

Okay, I, I still think the same thing I said about Tracy and Singletary. If it's at the two or the one yard line, I think it's likely to be Charbonnet.

[Dan Schneier]

I agree with that.

[Adam]

But I think if Walker can just catch a few passes a game, they set up a beautiful screen to him I think was a 29 yard gain. If he can just give us, you know, two to three catches then it won't matter that much. You'll have a higher floor. He won't, he won't kill you, you know, he won't single digit point you.

[Dan Schneier]

Right.

[Adam]

Basically.

[Dan Schneier]

Good point.

[Adam]

So, and then you know it's, it's not a, it's not a great schedule. So maybe he just took advantage of a good matchup. But you can get to week 17 at Carolina. That's, that's pretty good at Atlanta and week 14 is pretty good too. Yeah.

[Jacob]

All right, I'm not selling.

[Adam]

There you go.

[Jacob]

Do you guys have any Jameson Williams thoughts? Oh, people been asking about, people have been asking about jam a lot.

[Dan Schneier]

Well, I may lose my guillotine league.

[Jacob]

Because he had three targets and all of them hit his hands and he.

[Dan Schneier]

Literally was the best matchup on the slate of anything. Like it was man coverage, giants with no one to cover him. And I don't know, I, I don't have any thoughts on what happened. He's a really frustrating fantasy player.

[Adam]

Jacob, you could look this up really quickly. So I had highlighted that JMO is at his best seems to make his big plays when Jared Goff is under center and using play action. They were trailing in this game so I wonder if they just were in shotgun more and he just doesn't get, he just doesn't get targeted as much. It's throughout his career as yards per out run. Well not his first year but the last three seasons yards per outrun much better under center, much better play action. And maybe the game just didn't work out that way for them. I mean they could barely run the ball. Jameer Gibbs only ran for like 200 yards. Yeah lol.

[Jacob]

Yeah I'll look that up real quick. This was something Dan and I hit on. I like really dug into the specific splits trying to predict if Ben Johnson, you know him leaving means less play action in some of this stuff. Like what who's going to be hit the hardest and it was clearly Jameson Williams is what the data had shown. I haven't looked into it for this year specifically.

[Adam]

Yeah I did and it was, it was the, it was when it took over. I haven't looked, I haven't like seen the updated numbers. But yeah, I mean his, his big plays in the last few games, most of them I think have been on, on play action.

[Jacob]

So 26 play action rate this week. So they still used a lot of center, a lot of play action. Their shotgun rate was 48% so I think that's a little bit higher than normal. But still under center on more than half of their plays in week 12.

[Adam]

I'm just gonna say it was a bad game, just a bad game. And St. Brown was in the zone. Gibbs was heavily targeted. He doesn't usually get this many targets. Jameer Gibbs.

[Jacob]

So he didn't get Jameson and Williams didn't get any of the over the middle catch and run targets this week. His three targets were two hitches and one out route and he needs to catch it. But like even if he did catch those, he would have had 3 for 23 or something like that, you know. Yeah, if he's not getting those over the middle plays it is. This can happen. This is something I pointed out last week is like for all the Jameson Williams stuff that feels really good. He had a 13 first retarget rate last week in his big game and it's like he's not really a big part of the offense is his numbers are all better without laporta there. He does get more targets and everything, but still, like, the reason he's been getting there for fantasy lately is because he's hit on these long catch and run plays. And this week, he didn't even get an opportunity. I'm sure he ran some of those routes. Just didn't get targeted on him.

[Adam]

But, look, I told you, I don't mean to do this because I. I don't want to be egotistical, but I told you all what was going to happen. I said I picked him up in a league when someone dropped him going into his buy. I sat him three straight weeks. I'm gonna start him in week 12. You know what's gonna happen. I told you all. So it's your fault, not Jamo's. Great news. Joe Burrow will play on Thanksgiving. Unfortunately, T. Higgins will not. He's been ruled out with a concussion. But Jamar Chase will be back, so get ready to activate Joe Burrow. Although I think. I think I'm curious if he cracks the top 12. Probably will. I don't think he's gonna crack like, the top eight. It's just my guess. I haven't looked at anything yet, but that's just a guess. Against Baltimore without T. Higgins.

[Dan Schneier]

No Higgins. Yeah.

[Adam]

First game back. You know, we don't know how much mobile he's going to be.

[Dan Schneier]

We'll see. All right.

[Adam]

Thanks to Jacob and Dan. Appreciate y' all hanging around for a long show today, and we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.

[Dan Schneier]

Paramount Podcasts now streaming on Paramount Plus.

[Adam]

Brandon was the full package. I felt like I met my guy. Just stop, stop, stop, stop talking.

[Dan Schneier]

God. But he's not even close to the.

[Adam]

Person that I thought he was. When you do break up with Brandon.

[Dan Schneier]

That is when the stalking begins.

[Adam]

I just knew something horrific was about to happen.

[Dan Schneier]

I saw the devil in his eyes. We're gonna tell everyone what he did.

[Adam]

Don't date Brandon. Now streaming on Paramount plus.