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Biggest Fantasy Football Rankings Risers & Fallers After Free Agency (03/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)
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- [00:00]
Jamie Eisenberg
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- [02:03]
Heath C
What a play.
- [02:04]
Dave C
Can you believe this?
- [02:06]
Tom Schaefer
No, I can't.
- [02:07]
Heath C
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [02:10]
Dave C
Off to the races and he stays at his feet.
- [02:12]
Tom Schaefer
It's just gonna go the distance.
- [02:14]
Heath C
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and he.
- [02:20]
Tom Schaefer
What has changed since the start of free agency? What has changed for our show for today, it's Fantasy Football Today. Welcome to the show. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's he's coming. That's Dave Richard. As you can see, no Adam Azer. He is getting ready for his trip to South Florida. He's going to join us live in studio on Thursday. So that's going to be a fun show. Looking forward to seeing that and hopefully stealing his wallet once again. For those of you that listen to us for a long time, we'll have some fun with Adam in studio. But I have a fun show for you today. We're going to take a look at some of the rankings changes for us following free agency. But first, guys, I want to start with a news item from yesterday and maybe what could be a rankings debate already for who the number one overall pick is because Bijan Robinson got some company in Atlanta with Brian Robinson signing with the Falcons. So now we have the Tyler Algier replacement. And so I got this question yesterday from one of our editors who won, wanted us to write, wanted me to write a story about the running back change in Atlanta or the addition in Atlanta. And is Bijan Robinson the number one overall pick? And I think for me, I don't know about the two of you guys. Jameer Gibbs is still the number one overall pick. So I'll ask this question to you now that we know who the backfield mates are in Atlanta and Detroit with David Montgomery leaving, we have Isaiah Pacheco, now the new number two running back there for the Lions. And now we know that the most confusing situation in fantasy sports is make sure you click the right B Robinson in your draft room because Brian Robinson and Bijan Robinson are on the same team. How do we feel about the number one overall pick? Keith, I'll start with you. Who is number one overall for you? Ppr, half ppr, non ppr. You can make the decision.
- [04:01]
Heath C
Yeah, I probably wouldn't get too passionate debating either one of them. I think they're both good choices, but I'm gonna stick with Gibbs. I think Brian Robinson's a little bit better, particularly in short yardage, than Isaiah Pacheco is. That's not something Isaiah Pacheco was very good at even when he had the lead job in Kansas City. So I, I think there's a little more risk there. There's probably a better offense in Detroit. I think the more like the really interesting thing is the problems we had with Tyler Algier in Atlanta. It's an entirely new coaching staff. They may not even Want to distribute touches that way. And there's a new offensive coordinator in Detroit, too, but Dan Campbell's still there. Thankfully, the guy he loves and David Montgomery is not. I did think it was interesting thinking about what you said with Brian Robinson. Like, who's the most likely of us to try to trade Brian Robinson to someone hoping they'll think it's Bijan?
- [04:54]
Dave C
I don't think he's on the show today. I'm with you. I think Jameer Gibbs is the number one. And it's, it's, it's close. It makes me want to pick second overall this year and just let whoever's, whoever has the one on one in my fantasy draft take whoever you want. I'll settle. I'll settle for Bijan Robinson at number two. Or Gibbs, if you decide to take Bijan. It's real close between the two of them. I just like the. I just like the offense a little bit better in Detroit. I think Gibbs, we've seen him without David Montgomery, and the upside is crazy high. I don't think Isaiah Pacheco is going to take a lot of work away from him, just like I don't think Brian Robinson is going to take a lot of work away from Bijan Robinson. I, I'm not going to fault you if you like Bijan better, but give me Jameer Gibbs. I just think he's got a little bit more to him, a little bit more of a ceiling with that same Exact Type of 20 ppr point per game floor that Bijan has.
- [05:47]
Tom Schaefer
I think the, the interesting part of this is we don't know what life is like for a full season for Jameer Gibbs without David Montgomery. We have a sample size. There's six games in the last two years that Montgomery has missed. In those six games, Gibbs has averaged over 25 PPR points per game. And in the four games that he missed in 2024, we saw Gibbs over 32 PPR points per game. He was an absolute monster. So we're hoping that that's going to be the guy that we see. But again, Pacheco could be that short yardage guy. I think Heath is right. I don't think he's as good as Dave Montgomery and probably not as good as Brian Robinson, but he could be that guy. And there is a new offensive coordinator for the Lions. Obviously there's a new head coach for the Falcons now. Stefanski feels like he's. When he's had two guys, he's wanted to use two guys. Now he's never really Had. Correct. Well, I shouldn't say Nick Chubb wasn't as good as Bijan Robinson. They're different. But he had, he had a, a premier running back, but he still used two guys with Nick Chubb when he had Kareem Hunt in, in the successful part of that duo when they were together in, in Cleveland. So it's going to be interesting to see. And plus there's also just the, the thing that it comes down to for me is we know what Detroit is even with a new offense coordinator and, and look, you know, changes on the offensive line. You know, they, they've lost a couple guys which is, you know, potentially a little nerve wracking. Obviously. Atlanta's offensive line I think is rounding into shape and looking pretty good. But there's still some questions, you know, to a tongue of Iloa, is he going to be the starter? Is that a good thing for Bijan Robinson? Is Michael Penix going to be the starter? Is he going to be healthy? What are they going to both look like in terms of the quarterbacks with a new coach? Because we've never seen these guys play for Stefansky. So there's still questions. Obviously you look at the year that Bijan just had, he was better than Gibbs by, I think it was a point in terms of their, their point per game, it was close. Robinson was, was third overall in terms of non quarterbacks. Gibbs, I believe, was fourth or fifth. So they were right there with each other of where they were, you know, competing for. But I think they, that's, you know, it's almost like you just want to have somebody else make the decision for you. Unless you just have that strong of a feeling. Now in terms of Brian Robinson, how soon do you feel like you need to handcuff Bijan Robinson? If you need to handcuff him at all? Dave, do you want to target Brian Robinson if you're the Bijan Robinson manager,
- [08:06]
Dave C
the deeper the league, the more interested I would be in doing it. But I wouldn't prioritize it. It wouldn't be the same as, all right, I'm drafting Christian McCaffrey and I want to have the guy behind Christian McCaffrey, like that type of thing where you know that there's a bit of an injury concern and you just want to safeguard yourself with a running back that's in a great offense. That's when I would go and prioritize taking the guy behind the guy. In this case, number one, I don't think a lot of people are clamoring for Brian Robinson Jr. In fantasy drafts. And number two, if you've got Bijan and he goes down, it doesn't matter if you've got Brian Robinson or not. Your fantasy team's in trouble. But at least you'll have a running back on your bench if, if you're thin at the position. Obviously, we want to have guys who can start in place of other guys. I think round 10 would probably be the time when I would start to look for Brian Robinson, because I don't think a lot of other people in the league without Bijan Robinson on their team would be that interested in drafting Brian Robinson.
- [09:02]
Tom Schaefer
Heath Dave brought up the second part of this, which is now Christian McCaffrey does not have a guaranteed backup. Now, we knew this because Robinson was a free agent signed. It was on the end of his contract there. Assuming they don't do anything, are you looking at Isaac Garendo or Jordan James as somebody that you want to target in your fantasy drafts because of McCaffrey being 30, coming off a year where he had, you know, significant workload?
- [09:29]
Heath C
Once again, I'm looking at that as one of the more interesting camp battles, that of guys that aren't going to be starters. So I think it will be important which of the the hard thing is if you're drafting before that battle is settled. I mean, it's hard to take either one of them, but and the way San Francisco running backs have worked throughout history is one of them will probably get hurt and then the other guy will be the RB2. But yes, whichever one is the RB2, and I would probably lean ever so slightly towards Jordan James right now, but whichever one of the guys is the RB2, I'd have some interest in them. The other thing is, if we've got the age from a Caffrey, the injury history, the workload from last year, but if you just forget about all that in projections, he's my top projected running back because when he plays, he's the best running back.
- [10:13]
Tom Schaefer
Yep. It's going to be very interesting to see where Christian McCaffrey goes in drafts and very interesting to see where he's ranked. And that's going to lead us into our topic for today. Just one more news item which really isn't of anything significance as of now. We had two quarterback signings yesterday. Joe Flacco stays with the Bengals, so he'll be the backup to Joe Burrow. Maybe he was watching the flag football game over the weekend and decided that's a little crazy. So I'll just stay in Cincinnati in case something happens to be Burrow once again. And Zach Wilson goes from the Dolphins to the Saints, he'll be the most likely backup to Tyler Shuck. Spencer Rattler's still there, but I would imagine Wilson has the inside track to be the number two quarterback there in New Orleans. All right, so let's start with Dave's list of rankings changes. And I'm going to get to one guy before we take a break because Dave's got shocking four running backs of his, five players that we're going to discuss and one wide receiver. So Ameca Abuka is the one wide receiver. Dave, where do you have him ranked and how much did you get excited about him now that Mike Evans is a starting wide receiver for The San Francisco 49ers?
- [11:14]
Dave C
That was the first part of it. The second part, Jamie was reevaluating him. When I went through all of the analysis and, you know, the. The exercises that I go through when players change teams, the things I went through when Jalen Waddle got moved to Denver, we did that mock draft last week. I took Waddle late in round three, and I started looking at all the other receivers that I did not take. And I had to ask myself, why not a Buka? Why not somebody that's got huge upside, someone who we've seen play well? Obviously we've seen him play poorly when he was banged up, when his quarterback was banged up, when the offense just wasn't the same. And, and I. I've said this before. I think I said it already this week, actually. I expect Tampa to be one of those teams that has a good offense and a bad defense. And that combination makes me want to gravitate toward players on that team. This should be the number one target getter in Tampa. We know that in his second year, he should be able to be even better than he was in his first year. That's not saying much after how he finished the year. But I think there's just upside for a Buca to be a top 10 wide receiver this season. You don't have to draft him as such. I think he's worth a third round pick, much more so than Jalen Waddle at this point. And I've got him as wide receiver 15 in full PPR as we sit here today.
- [12:27]
Tom Schaefer
Heath, with your projections, Dave said, leading the team in targets, how does that compare to Chris Godwin? Maybe Jalen McMillan? And do we think that the Bucks receiving core is done, or could they potentially add somebody else because they surprised us last year? I think when they Drafted a Buka knowing that they were bringing back Evans and Godwin. And, you know, it seemed as if it was a little bit of a shocking move, but then when you took a step back and said, okay, this is a guy for the future, he was clearly a guy for the now. How do you see the targets being distributed in Tampa Bay right now?
- [12:56]
Heath C
I do have a book up pretty clearly as the number one target earner for Tampa Bay. I do think, like, and we talked about this, I think on Monday, like, if Chris Godwin is back to Chris Godwin, then that's not certain at all that Abuko, because he does have a much longer, longer history with Baker Mayfield, he has been a guy who, even when Mike Evans was awesome, Chris Godwin often earned more targets than him. And so that, that, that if, if Godwin is all the way back and returns to form, then I think it could be really close. Between those two, I've got ebuka, wide receiver, 19. So just a little bit lower. I seem to have just a little bit more concern about who Baker Mayfield is this year because we didn't see the same guy last year, and we've rarely seen the same guy two years in a row in Baker Mayfield's career. So I don't know that this is going to be a great offense. But right now, yeah, I think He's a top 20 wide receiver and for the time being, the number one target earner on Tampa Bay.
- [13:54]
Dave C
Can you give me a few of the receivers you have over?
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Heath C
A Booka, Luther, Burton?
- [13:59]
Dave C
Okay.
- [14:00]
Tom Schaefer
All right.
- [14:01]
Dave C
That's a guy I've got behind Abuka. Okay, that's fair.
- [14:03]
Tom Schaefer
It's very, it's very interesting with this receiving core because McMillan, I'm sure, is going to be one of their outside receivers. But Buka and Godwin are very versatile. They could both play inside, play outside, and we'll see, you know how they use these guys. And really the. Whoever ends up being their slot guy could be very heavily targeted based on Baker's track record. Plus, you also have once again for Baker Mayfield, another new offense coordinator, Zach Robinson, will be the play caller in Tampa Bay. All right, we'll take a break. When we come back and again to the rest of Dave's list, which are all running backs. Get into Heath's list. Get into my list. We'll tell you about our rankings changes following free agency.
- [14:45]
Jamie Eisenberg
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- [15:46]
Tom Schaefer
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Dave C
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- [15:51]
Tom Schaefer
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- [16:17]
Jamie Eisenberg
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- [16:54]
Tom Schaefer
I got four running backs left of Dave's five guys. Chuba Hubbard, Bashel Tootin, Jalen Warren and Jakori Crosky. Merit Dave let's start with Chula Hubbard. We talked about this a little bit when we were reviewing the mock draft. He went around six. I drafted him as my number two running back as we sit here today prior to the NFL draft. He benefits in a big way with Rico Dowdle, leaving Jonathan Brooks a little uncertain in terms of his recovery from his second torn acl. So where are you comfortable drafting Chuba Hubbard and where do you have him ranked?
- [17:23]
Dave C
Right about where you took him. Maybe a little bit past that is where I'd be okay with Chuba Hubbard. I've got him as a borderline RB2 again as we sit here now, I Don't know if I'm buying that the Panthers are done with their running back room just because they signed AJ Dillon, kept Trevor etn, Jonathan Brooks on the way back and Chuba is the guy that they paid. I could see them adding another running back in the draft. And the higher the draft capital that they spend on a running back, the less I'll be excited about Chuba Hubbard. I mentioned this earlier in the week. Here's what it is. 12 of 18 games. I said 20, but it's actually 18 games over the last two years when he's had 14 plus touches, he's had at least 15 PPR points. Like any running back, when he has volume, he puts up good numbers for fantasy. The problem is that when he doesn't have volume, he stinks. He hasn't even gotten to 10 PPR points in a game when he's at 13 or fewer carries or touches touches over the last two seasons. So yeah, if things stand pat in the Panthers backfield, maybe he will go higher than Round six and maybe even higher than Round five because fantasy managers will gravitate toward a guy who they see as being a lead back for an improving Carolina team. Their offensive line will be better, their defense will be better. It'll set up a little bit nicely for whoever that top running back is. I just don't know if we can sit here late March and say, yeah, it's definitely going to be Chuba Hubbard, but for now he's a name you got to keep in mind as somebody who could be a good back end.
- [18:43]
Tom Schaefer
RB2 Heath if he does open the season as the starter for the Panthers, is this a league winning type of guy or is this more of a settle for type of guy?
- [18:53]
Heath C
I think it's more of a settled for type of guy, but I've been like I was a big, big Jonathan Brooks guy and there's been some buzz around Carolina that they're excited about him. And so if the reports are good, like I'm probably more open to the possibility that Jonathan Brooks is going to carve out a role in this offense. They liked him as a pass catcher a lot coming out of college as well. So I, I do think and if he's not, then I think they probably add someone else. I I'm probably going to be a little bit lower on Shuba Hubbard just because of that, because of the very limited track record of him being really good as a rusher. He's, he had a great season in 2024 last year he kind of came Back to earth. And I don't know that this is a great offense for a running back.
- [19:40]
Tom Schaefer
We'll see. I mean the, the offensive line, they continue to retool it, adding another piece this off season. So.
- [19:45]
Dave C
Yep.
- [19:46]
Tom Schaefer
I mean, I, I, I think if he does, if it does stand pat, you know, so, you know, I, I think we're all kind of waiting to see what they do. You know, I don't think, right. It's going to be a high profile guy because there's not a lot of them in this draft class. But if they do spend a day two pick on someone, then that's something that's probably telling on Brooks and his recovery and.
- [20:06]
Heath C
Right.
- [20:06]
Tom Schaefer
Think of Chuba. But if they stand pat, that's an encouraging sign for Brooks, obviously, but also an encouraging sign for, for Hubbard. And I think to your point, Heath, if we start to get buzz about Brooks and drives down the price for Chuba Hubbard, he's going to end up, I think being one of the better value picks because we just don't know what Brooks will bring. You know, Brooks is back, then it's, you know, maybe a little bit of a waste of a pick on Hubbard. But I think round six for now is a good, good round or a good range to target somebody like him again, a guy that could still be a back end running back too, depending on you build your team and hopefully get back to that 2024 production that we saw.
- [20:40]
Dave C
All right, now is in if, if we draft Chuba as a settle for RB2, do we also target Brooks then in that round 910 range, same range that we were sort of talking about for Brian Robinson, but maybe a little bit ahead of Brian Robinson and then you lock up the Panthers Backfield as your RB2. I don't think that that's a bad plan.
- [21:02]
Heath C
If Brooks is healthy, it'd be one of my favorite quote unquote handcuffs.
- [21:05]
Dave C
Sure, sure. But if Brooks is healthy and the headlines are great out of training camp, you can kiss round nine goodbye. It'll be more like maybe round eight
- [21:14]
Tom Schaefer
Facial Tune right now is in a great spot. Went in a similar range as, as Chuba Hubbard round six in the last draft that we did again. You can see the results of the last podcast, last two of the last three podcasts that we've done. If you're looking, if you're watching on YouTube and you could also read the story on cbsports.com but bashal tune right now as it stands, the number one running back in Jacksonville, unless of course you're Listening to our mailbag where Dan Schneier made the case that maybe Chris Rodriguez is the number one running back for the Jaguars. Now, Dan was not saying that you should be drafting Rodriguez over Tootin at this point, but there is the history of Rodriguez with the head coach. They were together in Kentucky, so Liam Cohen, they call her for the Wildcats. Chris Rodriguez was a running back there. So Dave, when you look at this, is this another backfield that you want to lock up or you just want to target Basil Tootin and hope that he's the lead running back for Jacksonville and just takes over for what Travis, what Travis Etienne did for the Jaguars
- [22:12]
Dave C
last season, I think I'd be a little more encouraged with Tutin than I would be with Chuba Hubbard. I think Jacksonville's backfield is. Is kind of done. I know that Liam Cohen likes utilizing three running backs and that's the downside of it with Basaltin because I think not only will Tootin play and Rodriguez play, but La Quint Allen, we saw him in a role, it's a passing downs running back. More of a pass protector than anything else last year. I think that role is locked up for Allen. Not that that makes him any good for fantasy. You shouldn't draft him. But the other two running backs, just given the fact that they signed Rodriguez, they drafted Tutin last year, I feel like Jacksonville's good with their backfield and if that's the case, I like Tutin as the best talent of the three and somebody who can certainly improve on the numbers they had last year. I don't. I kind of throw out a lot of the stats that he had last year because he was used so sporadically. Never really had a chance to be the lead running back. And in those situations I like to fall back on what I know about the player from college and what we see on film from him and. And that's somebody who's got great speed and someone who's got good versatility. Could he end up being a trap back? That's a worry that I've got. Somebody who gets a lot of carries, doesn't work near the goal line, doesn't catch a ton of passes. Obviously that would be a problem for fantasy managers and that's why we're drafting them in this round six type range. But the Jacksonville offense is awesome. I think their offensive line is pretty good as well. Getting the lead running back there would be something that could end up being a great pick for fantasy and I wouldn't be opposed. Another backfield where if I end up getting Tootin. I can target Chris Rodriguez in that round 9ish range and lock up the Jacksonville backfield. And I might feel better about that backfield than I would the Carolina backfield.
- [23:49]
Tom Schaefer
Heath, which of the two backfields that we discussed so far do you think is most likely to add to it from the NFL draft, Carolina or Jacksonville?
- [23:59]
Heath C
Oh, I'm, I'm gonna go with Carolina. I wouldn't be surprised if either one did, though. I, I think it just like we said, if Carolina does, that will tell us what how Jonathan Brooks is doing in his recovery. I think if Jacksonville does, then that will tell us how they feel about Basil Tuton turning into a lead running back. Because, I mean, he came into the NFL with all these exciting metrics and abilities and these huge question marks about his role in the passing game and his ability to hold on to the football. And I don't know that those questions have been fully answered yet.
- [24:36]
Tom Schaefer
The Jaguars were rumored to be interested in J.K. dobbins, interested in Tyler Algier. Settled for, I think if you're just looking at it from, you know, Broadview, in my opinion at least Chris Rodriguez, if those are the two guys that they were talking about. So it feels like there's nothing, there's another shoe that's still going to drop for this team. You know, they, they, you know, sort of retooled their backfill last year a little bit by trading Tank Bigsby, by getting Basil Tootin, by getting lequin Allen. You know, and to Dave's point, they played Allen a lot on third down, but they didn't let him touch the ball a lot on third down. It was almost like he was extension of their offensive line, but a very good pass blocker. So we'll see what they, what they decide to do. But again, right now, Tutin's in a great spot. Understandable why his, his value is on the rise and his rankings have improved. Jalen Warren, however, got some significant competition. Dave. So Rico Dowdle joins the Steelers. He's reunited with Mike McCarthy. McCarthy was the guy who allowed Rico Dowdle to sort of flourish in Dallas, and then now they're reunited again in Pittsburgh. So I'm assuming Jalen Warren stock is
- [25:40]
Dave C
going down for you, obviously, and this is somebody who's a different type of battery mate than Kenneth Gainwell was, and maybe this ends up helping Jalen Warren get more targets and be a bigger factor in the passing game. Aaron Rodgers, we're assuming that he's going to be the quarterback there. I Don't see Rogers playing style changing. Even though McCarthy is the new head coach, I still think he's going to try and get the ball out quick. I think he's still going to lean on his running backs as check down guys or when he's pressured. He's just got to get the ball out and it's going to go to them. And if Warren ends up playing way more passing downs than Dowdle, then maybe this is going to look silly and Warren will end up being much better for PPR fantasy than anything else because we could see that target volume go way up if he's getting the Kenneth Gainwell role, but he's also going to see his carries go down. He had a career high 211 carries. It was his first year, Jamie, with more than 150 carries in a season and between that and the number of targets and catches that he did have last year, it was his best fantasy season, at least on a per game average he was north of 13 PPR points per game. It was kind of what I was expecting from him a couple of years ago. He finally got around to it this past year. Maybe he comes close to it again this year, but I don't love the prospect of Dowdle potentially taking him off the field at one point during the year on first and second downs, and it leaves Warren in a smaller role that would make me not want to take him where I would normally take Warren, which is as a borderline number two fantasy running back. Now for me, he's definitely a number three fantasy running back.
- [27:09]
Tom Schaefer
Heath In 2023, Jalen Warren was still almost exactly what they've said, a borderline number two running back when he was sharing with Najee Harris. 2024 is, I think, the year Dave's alluding to where I think we were all excited about what he could become and Naji was still a thing and Jalen Warren was dealing with injuries and did not have that year to take a step forward. We see it last year and now here comes Rico Doddle and I think Jalen Warren has shown us a few different versions of himself where he can be a good secondary option, where he can be involved in the passing game and have success, where you could be a lead running back like we saw last year and sort of be that type of player. So does Rico Doddle scare you enough to want to avoid Jalen Warren? Or are you going to say, oh, you know what, I'll just take maybe whichever Steelers running back goes second if I want to get a piece of
- [27:53]
Heath C
this backup, I've, I've got those two at kind of a coin flip right now in terms of who's going to be better. So I'll definitely take whoever is second. That doesn't mean I wouldn't take Jalen Warren. I think Jay, I'd still rather take Jalen Warren personally than I would Bashuba Hubbard. So I think, I think there will be the scares me though we talked about the connection with Liam Cohen, with Chris Rodriguez. Well, this is Mike McCarthy bringing in a guy, Enrico Dowdle. That's it was on his team in Dallas. And so I do worry just a little bit that he has an edge on Warren from the gate.
- [28:25]
Tom Schaefer
It's certainly something to keep an eye on. It's going to be one of the more fascinating camp battles to, to watch to see how the Steelers use these guys. And obviously we're still waiting to see who the quarterback is going to be, although we all anticipate it being Aaron Rodgers coming back to the Steelers in 2026. Another backfield to watch is in Washington. Dave's last guy that we're talking about here is Jacori Crosby Merit. So Dave, I, you know we, we sent these lists via text and we didn't really say up or down in terms of where they are in the rankings. And I'm curious, did crossing Merritt move up or did he move down? Because gets the benefit of at least right now looking like the lead running back. But they add Rashad White, they Bring back Jeremy McNichols. Is this a winner or a loser for you following free agency?
- [29:04]
Dave C
Don't forget that Jerome Ford's on this roster. Not too, not that it's a big deal, but I feel like he's moving down. I don't know if I, if I want to trust Jakory Crosby Merit as maybe an at best two down player for Washington in an offense that still has Jaden Daniels under center and somebody who could still run and a team that's going to want to throw the ball still quite a bit even though they don't have Zachary to begin the year. Theoretically he's not even on the team. On top of that, no Debo Samuel on the roster right now. I, I, I'm nervous about Crosky Merrick being a good fantasy running back and that's especially the case in full PPR because I don't think he's going to catch anything and if you're not catching the ball, you're not going to get a huge amount. Your upside's gone basically. Unless you score a ton of touchdowns. I don't think he's going to score a ton of touchdowns. I think Rashad White is going to be their goal lineback. I think White and Ford are going to be the pass catchers in Washington and they could always end up drafting a running back as well with their first round pick or a day two pick and that would further push cross game Merritt. I, I don't really have an intention of drafting them even in our mock drafts unless he just falls way, way down and by the time I would take him, somebody else will have already snapped him up.
- [30:14]
Tom Schaefer
If you feel the same way. And just for me, I'm curious to see what Crosby merit looks like if he gets a full season as and I agree with Dave, I think first and second, I don't think he's going to, you know, all of a sudden morph into a pass catcher when they bring in Rashad White, but to see what he looks like with Jane Daniels because we only get a chance to see that last year because by the time Crossing Merritt had some of his good games, Jayden Daniels was significantly banged up.
- [30:37]
Heath C
I like BAAL Tootin more than Jakori Crosby Merritt, but I don't have any idea what to think about the Washington backfield right now. And so it's kind of just a, if I can get him as a number three running back. I still think he has upside to be a top 20 guy because he's so good as a rusher. There were just things that he couldn't do last year. And listen, Dave talked about it with Abuka. Guys improve between their rookie year and their second year. If he has improved some of the deficiencies in his game and he gets to be on the field a little bit more, he's certainly going to be a committee back. He's not going to play third downs. Most likely Bashel Tutin's not going to play third downs just because laquint Allen's going to be the guy on the field. And so I think they'd be very similar. It's just whether Chris Rodriguez or, or Rashad White matters more on early days.
- [31:29]
Tom Schaefer
Yeah, and, and obviously Rashad White's got a pretty, you know, lengthy resume by comparison. So we'll see how he factors in. And you know, he may end up being the best running back for Washington. We, we said this in our mock draft review that we didn't like Rashad White in round seven, but that doesn't mean that he can't end up there if he wins the training camp battle and is the best running back in Washington to open the season. All right, let's move on to Heath's list. And I'm going to start with. I'm just going to lump two guys together because I have them ranked back to back. I'm curious or very similar where you have the two quarterbacks on your list. So Heath's list is Malik Willis, Kyler Murray, Isaiah Likely, Kyle Pitts and Khalil Shakir. A lot of K's there. So let's start with the quarterbacks here. We got Malik, Malik Willis and Kyler Murray. Which one moved up more? Which one do you have ranked higher?
- [32:15]
Heath C
So I think Malik Willis has been a roller coaster because he moved up a lot when he got the starting job with Miami. He took a little bit of a hit when they traded away his only wide receiver. And I think their top two wide receivers right now might be Jalen Tolbert and Malik Washington. They added other guys, but they. They need wide receivers. So I'll take Kyler Murray right now just ahead of Malik Willis in a one quarterback league in super Flex. I think you have to favor Willis just because there's still some risk that Kyler Murray doesn't win the starting job. I don't really believe that that risk exists for, for Malik Willis. Both of these guys could run for 700 yards. Both of these guys have given us reason to be optimistic about what they can do as a passer. Not. Not good, but optimistic. And then the big difference is Kyler Murray has Justin Jefferson, Malik Willis has no.
- [33:05]
Tom Schaefer
1, and Jordan Addison and Kevin O'. Connell. He's the right coach. So, Dave, we've. We've talked a little bit, you know, about Malik Willis when he signed and following the Jalen Waddle trade. I don't think you were on the Dylan Waddle show. You definitely weren't because you were. You were gone. So does. Does Willis without Waddle change dramatically from the standpoint of how fantasy managers should view him in the frame of we expect him to run a lot. The allure to what Malik Willis could be might be the best running quarterback in fantasy based on how this offense may look. Did things really change for the worse without Waddle there that much?
- [33:50]
Dave C
A little. Because we're talking about a receiver in Jalen Waddle who has excelled making plays after the catch and those numbers add up for the quarterback and Heath really hit it. It's not going to be a great receiving core for Malik Willis in Miami.
- [34:07]
Tom Schaefer
Not I.
- [34:08]
Dave C
To me, that's a huge differentiator between Murray and Malik Willis. But if you're drafting Malik Willis, you're doing it because of the rushing. And he said there's potential for 700, there's potential for a thousand rushing yards from Malik Willis in this Dolphins offense because I don't know what else they're really going to do. I think that's a really ugly looking receiving room and it's going to be hard for Willis. It's going to be hard to project him. In fact, I'm curious Heath, what you have Malik projected for, for on a per game basis, can he even find 175 yards per game? And if, if I'm drafting a quarterback that has that low of an, of a projection, he better run his tail off and he better rush for a bunch of touchdowns to make up for it. Whereas Kyler Murray, he won't run for a thousand yards. I'd be surprised if he ran for 700 yards. It might be more like 500 yards, but that's still awesome. They'll still run for four or five touchdowns. And on top of that, we know about his receiving core and we know about Kevin o' Connell and what he's done with literally every quarterback he's had other than J.J. mcCarthy. So I, I would, I would prefer to draft Kyler, but I'm, I'm in the market for either of those quarterbacks when we get to the back half of fantasy drafts and I'm looking and I'm ready to commit to two quarterbacks on my fantasy team.
- [35:23]
Heath C
Yeah, I haven't downgraded Willis probably as much as I will because it's not going to stay like this. Like the wide receiver is both the position that still has the most established veterans available in free agency and the position that is the best and deepest in this draft class. So the Dolphins top may probably, I would guess the Dolphins top two wide receivers are not currently on the team. It's just who. Finding out who those guys are and how good they are will make a big difference. Like just looking at free agency. And I, I don't know if any of these guys would even go to Miami but. And we still got. Tyreek Hill's not going to do it. Stefan Diggs, Debo Samuel, Juwan Jennings, like there's, there's a, there's a lot of guy. Keenan Allen, there's a lot of vets that would be easily the wide receiver one on this team right now. Yep.
- [36:11]
Tom Schaefer
And two first round picks following the trade of Waddle. So they have Denver's first pick, first round pick at 30th overall. Dolphins have the 11th overall pick. So we'll see what they decide to do. But yes, certainly some still uncertainties with these guys at. Dave, just yes or no. You said you would look at these guys as if you're taking two quarterbacks. Would you take these two quarterbacks to be your only quarterbacks on your fantasy roster? Just yes or no?
- [36:37]
Dave C
No.
- [36:38]
Tom Schaefer
He's the same question.
- [36:39]
Heath C
No. No.
- [36:40]
Tom Schaefer
So you'd rather have a more proven right guy with better floor. And the ceiling for both these guys is obviously pretty high. All right, we take a break right now. We come back and again into the rest of Heath's list. I'll give you my five guys that have changed as a result of free agency and more rankings changes here on fantasy football today. Now at the Home Depot. Receive 12 months special financing and free basic installation on carpet projects with lifeproof,
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Dave C
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Tom Schaefer
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Heath C
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Dave C
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Heath C
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Dave C
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- [37:50]
Heath C
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- [38:11]
Tom Schaefer
All right, we talked about two of Heath's guys, the quarterbacks, Malik Willis and Kyler Murray. Now we have two tight ends to look at here in Isaiah Likely and Kyle Pittsburgh. So Heath, when it comes to likely, he changed teams. He goes from the Ravens to the Giants, obviously a huge upgrade. How much of an upgrade though for you in your rankings? Is He A top 10 guy, a top 5 guy? Is this a must draft player? Is he a league winner now that he's the starting tight end for the New York Giants?
- [38:36]
Heath C
Just a little peek behind the curtain. One of the things I've been working on for the last few weeks is trying to lower Sam Laporta, Kyle Pitts and Isaiah Likely in my projections because I've just absolutely loved what's happened for those guys this offseason I think we've talked a lot, a lot about Drew Petzing and Kevin Stefanski and their offensive system and how much you throw the ball to tight ends. And I think people don't talk about it with the Giants because nobody knows how much Matt Nagy was involved in the offense in Kansas City and actually calling plays. And nobody really thinks Harbaugh had much to do with it in Baltimore. But both of those guys also come from offenses where the tight end is an enormous part of the offensive game plan. And so the, the only addition they've made that really matters at wide receivers. Darnell Mooney.
- [39:25]
Dave C
Right.
- [39:26]
Heath C
Like I think there's a chance that Isaiah likely is then and Jackson Dart showed last year with Theo Johnson at times that he likes to throw the ball to his tight end. So I I'm going to probably end up settling with likely right around tight end 6. My the first run at projections had him at tight end four. I think this is an extremely talented guy that walks into a situation where he has the opportunity to have a hundred plus targets as the number two target on his own team.
- [39:53]
Tom Schaefer
Dave, do me a favor. Look up what Matt Nagy's targets to tight ends were when he was the head coach of the Bears because that could tell us.
- [40:02]
Dave C
Sure.
- [40:02]
Tom Schaefer
Give me a little bit about maybe where we're we're looking at from this. But so tight end six. So your top five guys I'm gonna assume are McBride, Bowers, Loveland, Warren Fannin. Oh no, you like the Porter Laporta's 4?
- [40:19]
Heath C
Yeah, I'm gonna have Laporta ahead of Warren for sure and I'm gonna have Laporta Ahead of Fanon for sure. What I'm really struggling with right now and, and like when we're talking about rankings, I think everybody knows they go to the site, we don't actually have rankings published. And so it's all kind of a fluid discussion right now about where these guys struggle with is pits, likely Craft, Warren Fanon. And like that's now we're down to nine tight ends with those top four that you gave. Which is one of the reasons that I have a really hard time taking guys in round four and five that I think are still in the discussion with guys that are available in round eight and nine. Like Adam took likely in round ten. I think in our last mock draft. Yes, huge upside.
- [41:03]
Tom Schaefer
We we did the sort of the state of the tight ends on Fantasy Football Today Express yesterday. And I, I said I, I love what Adam did. He took, he took likely And Kelsey, you know, and, and Kelsey was having a great season by all standards of where he is right now before Mahomes suffered the ACL tear in week 14. And so, you know, you got basically for me, those are two top 10 tight ends. I think I have likely at nine and, and, and Kelsey at 10, you know, so that's a unbelievable pairing if you're going to wait that long to take two swings at the position because look likely could fail. You know, I mean, you brought up all the positives. He's had some opportunities, not many in Baltimore when, when Mark Andrews has been hurt. And then, you know, we don't know what Jackson Dart looks like with Malik Neighbors. They played half of a game together when Dart was a starter in week four when Neighbors suffered the torn acl. But we also don't know what version of Malik Neighbors were getting. You mentioned Darnell Mooney. They still may add to the receiving core, but it feels like they may be done as well. So. And then Kelsey could, you know, easily still be a, a starting caliber tight end. But I think Isaiah likely is, is one of the more intriguing players this year because you're going to get him at a discount by comparison to the younger tight end, certainly by comparison to McBride and Bowers. And you may have a, a top five caliber player. Dave, did you find the Naggy numbers when he was the Bears coach?
- [42:29]
Dave C
Sure. So with Chicago, Matt Nagy, his first year there, he signed Trey Burton. It was a large contract, $22 million guaranteed. Burton averaged 9.2 PPR points per game, 4.8 targets per game. And I remember, I remember liking Trey Burton back then and targeting him in drafts. And then he, he underwhelmed a little bit. The, the only tight end that Naggy's had good success.2 ppr points per game. That's the best it ever got for a tight end in Chicago under Matt Nagy. It's Kelsey, but Travis Kelsey is a completely different type of tight end than Isaiah likely is. And, and the target volume, obviously for Kelsey, he worked as more of a number one wide receiver for the majority of his time in Kansas City. I don't think Isaiah likely is going to be anywhere close to that in New York. I would just, I, I don't mind likely as a top 10 pick in fantasy tight ends among the tight ends, not as a top 10 pick overall. Maybe we're taking him in the mid rounds and feeling okay about to begin the season, but I, I don't want to. I don't want to over Commit to somebody who hasn't been committed to in four years by John Harbaugh who still is head coach in New York. And as long as Malik Neighbors comes back and he's healthy, we know he's going to be the top target getter. And I still think there's some pieces in this Giants offense that we don't know about yet. We should double check this by the time we get to May 1, see what they do in the draft and then decide just how high Isaiah likely should be in our rankings.
- [43:59]
Tom Schaefer
All right, so he's sixth for Heath, right? Is that projections or right?
- [44:02]
Heath C
Yeah.
- [44:02]
Tom Schaefer
Where is he for you, Dave?
- [44:04]
Dave C
A tenth, tenth.
- [44:05]
Tom Schaefer
Okay. So still top ten tight end? Oh yeah, yeah.
- [44:08]
Dave C
He's draftable for sure. But I, I don't want to put him in the same boat as Kraft, Pitts and laporta just yet.
- [44:15]
Tom Schaefer
So Kyle Pitts did not change teams. He got the franchise tag and I, I think we'll probably all agree if he's a holdout that's gonna, you know, make us a little uncomfortable about how maybe high we may have him ranked Heath Pitts last year, best year of his career, you know, finally look like the guy we've been waiting for. A lot of his great games came when Drake London was banged up, so take that into account. And a lot of his great games along with that came with Kirk Cousins under center. So now we have a different quarterback most likely to a Tonga by Loa or banged up Malik, Michael Penix, we have a new coach and Kevin Stefanski, which I think we'll all agree is a huge positive based on his track record with tight ends. Is Kyle Pitts going to disappoint us once again? Because once upon a time he had one great season. It was his rookie year and then we've been chasing that year ever since. Until what he did last year when nobody drafted him as a starting tight end in fantasy.
- [45:07]
Heath C
Yeah, I don't think he's going to disappoint us because I think he went two rounds earlier than likely in the most recent mock draft and I think so. People have been disappointed so often that he's just. His ADP is not going to get pushed up that high. We've talked about it a lot. Fancy's offense, like 10 targets per game, two tight ends, they won't all go to the same guy, but an excellent chance, just like likely for Pitts to be the second target in this offense in terms of total targets. He's averaged 7.9 yards per target over his Career, which is good for a tight end. The big problem has been the touchdowns. The fun thing is he scored 1, then 2, then 3, then 4, then 5. So I think you can count on six touchdowns next year. Career high every year. And I just listen, sometimes the coordinator stuff doesn't work out. Sometimes it does. I, I think Stefanski and the fact that the guy who was offensive coordinator under him went somewhere else and we saw the same trend makes me a little bit more confident in that aspect of the offense. They will get him easy targets. That's what that offense is really known for is those dump off targets, that kind of PPR cheat code type targets. And so I think Kyle Pitts could be the number one tight end. You can draft him as the number eight tight end.
- [46:29]
Tom Schaefer
The, the things that you look at, it's not just the coordinator or the coach instead of fancy because there's, there's that track record I think Tua has shown us with two different versions of tight ends. He was very good for John Smith in 2024 and in a very small sample size, he was good with Darren Waller last year as well. You know, not necessarily from a huge volume standpoint, but just from a fantasy production standpoint. Tua and Waller had a very solid connection in the three or four games that they played together. The other thing which I hope will lead to a contract extension for Kyle Pitts at least to avoid, or you know, some. Something to avoid. The. The holdout is the guy that's now calling the shots for the Falcons was his quarterback in his rookie season and that's Matt Ryan. Yeah. And so, you know, hopefully Ryan convinced his ownership to make a commitment to Kyle Pitts and then we have this pairing for maybe a couple of years. You can see what Pitts can do in Stefanski's offense, certainly for people in dynasty leagues. Dave, I'm going to guess you're a little bit more skeptical of Kyle Pitts just based on how you've treated him the last couple years.
- [47:33]
Dave C
Yeah, no question about it. Last year, 9.6 PPR points per game on 6.2 targets per game in 12 games with Drake London. I would say that that's pretty good for Kyle Pitts, especially when you look at his years before 2025. His numbers were inflated because of those five games he played without Drake London and I, I think the Tuatanga Violoa point is very valid if he's the starter for the Falcons, at least to begin the season. This is a dude who wants to get the ball out quick. And when that's the case, you're going to look for a tight end like Kyle Pitts who can catch the ball and they may make a play after the catch. So there is some potential for Kyle Pitts to be a double digit PPR guy, not just at the beginning of the year, but maybe carry it all through the season. But I don't see the same type of upside except when he plays against the Bucks because apparently he's good for like two touchdowns and 175 yards each time he goes up against Tampa. Those weeks will be starting Kyle Pitts, but otherwise I'm not excited to draft him. I'd rather have Laporta, I'd rather have Kraft, I'd rather have those top five studs. I think that's easy to say. And so if that means that he's tight end 8 by default, that's just kind of indictment on what the rest of the tight ends look like after the first seven guys that we draft.
- [48:46]
Tom Schaefer
Tight end will be a fun position to discuss throughout the rest of this off season as well. Wide receiver. And the last guy on Heath's list is Khalil Shakir. So he gets company in Buffalo with the addition of DJ Moore. How do we feel about Khalil Shakir now? Heath?
- [49:01]
Heath C
Yeah, I, I, I am not excited about Khalil Shakir. I'm not expecting a huge increase in pass attempts after the offensive coordinator got promoted to, to the head coach. Maybe he throws a little bit more. He's never kind of like Kyle Pitts. He's never been a touchdown guy while he's been the number one wide receiver for this team. He's never had a season with more than 100 targets. Like, it's just, he's really awesome for Buffalo and he catches almost everything you throw at him. And he makes a couple of big plays every year, but he's not somebody that I am really interested in drafting.
- [49:40]
Dave C
It's round 11. You recognize the name and you take them to put on your bench.
- [49:45]
Tom Schaefer
If we do see an increase in past attempts though, so let's just say Joe Brady is free of Sean McDermott and he says, you know what, I want to throw the ball 600 times, you know, or 580 times, I don't know, what was their number last year?
- [49:58]
Heath C
495.
- [49:59]
Tom Schaefer
495. So let's just say it goes up 50, you know, 50 more past times. Okay, DJ Moore, obviously we're all going to project predict rank to be the number one wide receiver in Buffalo. That's easy. If Shakir is number two and we see bump in targets by, let's say 15 to 20, does that change your opinion?
- [50:22]
Heath C
So I've got him projected for a bump in targets of five right now. So. And that puts him at wide receiver 41 in the projections. So if you added 10 more targets, then yeah, he could get into the low end wide receiver three conversation.
- [50:40]
Tom Schaefer
Okay, so if we, we're not gonna, you know, I can't imagine Joe Brady's gonna, you know, give his, his full offensive plan. But we, you know, we hear rumblings that, you know, next week at the owner's meetings, he's going to meet with the media, he's going to say, you know, I want to open the offense a little bit more, you know, I want to be a little bit more past, past friendly and be a little bit more explosive and blah, blah, blah. Whatever he says we could, we could see hopefully a, a renaissance for all these guys and we'll just move into, you know, my, my five guys here because DJ Moore is on the list. So DJ Moore is obviously a winner here. You know, going from Chicago to Buffalo. For me, he's, you know, you mentioned you have burden over a book. I still have more overburden right now. That may change. That's certainly in pencil. As you said, our ranking is not on the site yet. So I'm curious though, like how you view Buffalo's. Both you guys, how you view Buffalo's new number one wide receiver compared to Chicago's two guys that are left. So Heath, for you it's burden. More odunze is that I have it.
- [51:45]
Heath C
It is burden. More odunze and burden and more are. Are pretty close. And A Dunes A is five to ten spots behind them.
- [51:54]
Tom Schaefer
Okay, I have it the same way, except just more one spot ahead of. Of burden and I'll do about five spots behind Dave. How do you have those three guys ranked?
- [52:01]
Dave C
They're all within five spots of each other. Burden, Odunze Moore. And it goes back to what we talked about with the Bills and Joe Brady and how their tendency is to run the football between James Cook and Josh Allen. And until that target volume goes up across the board, the passing volume, I guess I should say, goes up across the board. It's hard to look at DJ Moore in the same lens as when he was in Carolina getting a ton of targets because when he got a ton of targets and he got in Chicago too, that's when he was at his best for fantasy. If he's. We're coming Off a year where Khalil Shakir was the target leader for Buffalo, it was 95 targets. I don't think. I don't think D.J. moore is going to get 95. I think he's going to go higher than that. But he's also a little bit older than the last time that he was great and I, I want to draft him closer to the floor than the ceiling. Even though it is kind of exciting to think about him as the number one guy in Josh Allen's offense and
- [52:55]
Tom Schaefer
being reunited with Joe Brady, where he's had, you know, arguably. Yeah, that's exciting too.
- [52:58]
Dave C
You're right.
- [52:59]
Tom Schaefer
Best seasons. The one scene being the best was his first in Chicago. So, Heath, how many targets do you have projected for DJ Moore?
- [53:06]
Heath C
121. And that is with Josh Allen throwing 526 passes, so 31 more than last year. I. I don't think anybody be surprised to be through 550. So then maybe DJ Moore could get to 130. I think the big difference for me between DJ Moore, which I agree, big win for him, and Khalil Shakir is if I'm looking at the upside and things go right for the Bills pass attack, I could see D.J. moore become a borderline wide receiver.
- [53:34]
Tom Schaefer
1.
- [53:34]
Heath C
When I was talking about Khalil Shakir's upside, it was like maybe he could be a wide receiver. 3.
- [53:41]
Tom Schaefer
Yeah, I mean, look, it's going to take D.J. moore, Chicago circa 2024, you know, or 2023 to show up for us to be that excited about him. But clearly there's reason to be excited about more now that he's in Buffalo. And the same thing with Romeo Dobbs going to the Patriots. We talked a little bit about this in, in the mock draft review. I think going back to the free agency discussion, though, it felt as if we were closer collectively. Maybe it was just me, but closer collectively. With Wandell Robinson going to the Titans, Romeo Dobbs going to the Patriots, Alec Pierce staying in Indianapolis when we did the first recap show, because that all happened on day one of free agency, I feel like Dob's upside is just untapped right now. We don't know what we're going to get from him because we've seen some good moments from him in Green Bay. We've seen some good moments when he's been targeted, but now he gets a chance to hopefully lead the Patriots targets again. I don't know if this team is done in terms of what the receiving core looks like. There's still A lot of talk about A.J. brown. I don't know if the Eagles are going to let him go, but where do you guys have Romeo Dots? For me, he's wide receiver 34. So just inside the top 36 wide
- [54:51]
Heath C
receivers, he is wide receiver 38. For me, that is with 101 projected targets. Last year, the leader on The Patriots had 102 and Dobbs career high and is 96. So there's upside beyond that. It's just gonna have to be upside beyond what anybody in New England saw last year and what Dob has ever seen in his career.
- [55:12]
Dave C
And I'm. I'm even further behind Heath on that. I like the idea of Dobbs as a bench receiver in fantasy. Don't want to reach for him and say he's going to be a slam dunk number three type of wide receiver. When we've seen two years of Drake May under center for the Patriots, the only guy to average even 10 PPR points per game was Stefan Diggs. That's right around that. Number 10 is right around where Dobbs has been. I want to draft him with that type of expectation. I'm afraid I'm not going to be able to because there will be people in every league that will view Dobbs and this is as of now, if they add A.J. brown, obviously this changes totally. But there will be people who think that he will be the number one receiver in New England and he might be by, by terms of like total raw targets that he gets, but it might not be a high number. It might be in the neighborhood of six targets per game. It's really hard to be a great fantasy wide receiver, even like a regular contributor to lineups when you're only getting six targets per game.
- [56:05]
Tom Schaefer
It's going to be interesting. You know, the. The history of Josh McDaniels number one receiver has, you know, for the most part been good. I don't know how much you want to attach that to Stefan Diggs last year because of his age coming off the acl. And you know, Dobbs may be in a similar situation. You know, we've never seen him do this before or be in this type of scenario before. So we'll see into your point. Dave. There's Andy KB7G in our chat says if the wide receiver room stays as is, he'll be extremely bullish on Romeo. So there's going to be people that are very excited about Dobbs because of the scenario of being the number one receiver for Drake May DK Metcalf now has competition in Pittsburgh. So he's a guy that's been significantly lowered in my rankings. I have him behind Dobbs as of now. That may change, but same a little bit worried about DK Metcalf coming off of what I think most people would consider a disappointing season and now the addition of Michael Pittman. Heath, you, you made a comment about Metcalf in the draft, but I don't think you explained it. You said something about Metcalf and I don't know if you meant you're going to be bullish on his draft capital where he'll go. But how do you feel about Metcalf now as the 1A or maybe even the 1B in Pittsburgh with Pittman now joining the Steelers?
- [57:17]
Heath C
I listen, I'm still of the opinion that DK Metcalf's better than Michael Pittman and the DK Metcalf's going to see more targets than Michael Pittman. I, it's. He's kind of like the Malik Willis roller coaster for me because in my projections it was a big win for DK Metcalf to go from Arthur Smith to Mike McCarthy. That's been a very pass heavy offense or at least if not pass heavy, high volume pass attempt offense in the past. And so then it was a pullback when Michael Pittman was added. But because I'd already given him the boost up, I think I have DK Metcalf pretty close to where I had him last year. I think he's wide receiver 27 for me, so a high end wide receiver three. That I think has, I mean quite
- [58:01]
Tom Schaefer
a bit of upset. I'm just nervous about what we saw at the end of the Aaron Rodgers, Mike McCarthy pairing and Rogers being now 42 and running the play clock down to zero every play and you know, slowing things down and what McCarthy's offense may want to look like. And obviously McCarthy kind of being handcuffed a little bit because Rogers being the best quarterback option that's available to him. It's a little different I think when he has Dak Prescott and what he could do with that offense, at least what he was able to do in Dallas. So I'm a little concerned about Metcalf. But look, I, I think McCarthy, I agree with you. McCarthy's definitely an upgrade over Arthur Smith and so Hopefully Rogers in McCarthy's offense will be an upgrade as well. Last two guys we'll talk about here are Kenneth Walker and Emmanuel Wilson. I think Walker is obvious in terms of being a rankings riser. Dave, where do you have Walker Ranked now for me, he's the ninth running back off the board. Somebody I would take in the middle of the round two.
- [58:53]
Dave C
I've got him 13th, so I'm a little bit behind you on Walker. I see the appeal. I get the upside. I kind of like the idea of saying we'll take what he did last year, add 10 to it and then add like five touchdowns on top of it and that would be pretty darn good for Kenneth Walker. But we also know the downside with Walker. Obviously the injuries are a factor. We don't know if Kansas City is, is. Is going to suddenly change into a run heavy team. They've had a low run rate each of the last five seasons. I think it's going to come down to Patrick Mahomes and what his health is like. And if he's really back to his old self, then we're still going to see this team throw the ball 60% of the time. I don't think that's a great thing for Kenneth Walker. I don't want to reach for him others over some other running backs that I think can still contribute highly to fantasy managers this year.
- [59:40]
Tom Schaefer
Heath, is this a better or worse scenario for Ken Walker taking the Zach Charbonnet equation out of it? Is this a better offensive environment right now than what he's leaving?
- [59:55]
Heath C
I think if Zach Charbonnet was. No. Well, you told me to take it out of it, but I think it's a, it's a worse one if Zach Charbonnet doesn't exist.
- [60:04]
Dave C
Yes.
- [60:04]
Heath C
And it's a better one if Zach Charbonnet is back by week four and himself.
- [60:09]
Dave C
Yes.
- [60:10]
Heath C
So I, I did not go with the. Because they're going to run a lot less than Seattle did, I think and I, I would you think early in
- [60:19]
Tom Schaefer
the season when my homes is working his way back.
- [60:22]
Heath C
I don't. I. Maybe, maybe. I mean I think they'll run more than they have in the past. But the difference between how often Seattle was running last year and how often Kansas City's run period with Patrick Mahomes is a wide gulf.
- [60:37]
Tom Schaefer
Do you fear, and this is my big concern with Walker. Do you fear that what we saw from him in the postseason, which is not replicable over the course of 17 games because he was just amazing. I mean he was, he was. If you just take his sample size of that stretch, the best player in fantasy last year. But you know, do that with everybody's best stretch. But you get the point that we're chasing that people are going to be chasing that production and he's not going to be as good with the Chiefs.
- [61:07]
Heath C
If he's where we have him ranked in that high end RB2 range, then no, I think that's appropriate. If we. He starts getting drafted as a top 12 running back, then absolutely, yes.
- [61:17]
Tom Schaefer
Okay, so I haven't ranked too high by your standards?
- [61:20]
Heath C
Oh, I didn't. Yeah, I didn't.
- [61:21]
Dave C
I'm curious who you've got ranked behind him, Jamie.
- [61:24]
Tom Schaefer
So right now he is just ahead of Josh Jacobs and Ashton Genti. Genti will be the one that moves ahead of him for sure if, if everything continues to point in a positive direction. A little bit worried that we may get some competition for Genti just based on what you've heard from this coaching staff initially. So we'll see. But you know, talking, comparing him to Walker, obviously Kubiak was very uncomfortable using two guys last year and that was not great for, for Walker during that stretch. So it's again very much in pencil where I have Walker ahead of. It's Jacob. I have Walker, Jacobs, Genti, Hampton right now. So those four guys I've shuffled a billion times in a row. Let's see. And then the last one here is just, I think somebody who's probably going to be, I know I'm going to target him a lot is Emmanuel Wilson just with the idea of can he win the starting running back job for Seattle with Charbonnet's delay in coming back from this ACL tear that he suffered in the divisional round against the 49ers. So Wilson, you know, we, we talked a little bit about Jonathan Brooks, we talked a little about Chris Rodriguez. I would at this point be targeting Emmanuel Wilson over both those guys. I don't know how you feel, Dave.
- [62:38]
Dave C
I would too, but I certainly don't expect Seattle to say that this is a finished running back room. This is a team that I'm actually hoping for, makes a nice splash in the draft. Maybe even takes two running backs in the draft. One on day two and then another one late on day three. And they really add to the room that way. I think we've, I think we're kind of dreaming when we talk about Zach Charbonnet being ready for even like the midpoint of the year just because he tore his ACL in mid January. And I, I don't know if we should expect big things from Charbonnet and I think we should draft him accordingly. We don't know who those rookies will be that they add to the backfield, but Emmanuel Wilson isn't a rookie and we've seen him play as a lead back before in Green Bay and he's done really well. And even if he's part of a tandem to begin the year in Seattle, it's really good draft value. If we're taking him in that same range as good. The names that he would probably be amongst at best would be like Manangai, Blake Corum, like those types of names. Emmanuel Wilson might be better than them at least to begin the year. He might be a starter for your fantasy team to begin the year. It's the whole season outlook that I'd be really worried about with Emmanuel Wilson, but when we're taking him in the back half of a draft, who cares about the whole season outlook? Let's just get somebody that can help me get to a good start to begin the year. Perfect for drafters who love 0 RB or Hero RB.
- [64:03]
Tom Schaefer
You feel the same way, Heath, about the Seattle backfield that we're not going to see Charbonnet maybe for a while. And is it Wilson or is it George Holani for you? Like who's the guy that you're looking at in this backfield right now?
- [64:15]
Heath C
I think you asked earlier in the show who's more likely to add a running back, Carolina or Jacksonville? And if Seattle had been a part of that question, I think we all would have said Seattle. So but as of right now I would say Wilson is the, the he'd have to be the favorite to be the starting running back. Week one I would be very surprised if we see Zach Charbonnet. I, I think really I'd be pretty surprised if we see Zach Charbonnet good this year. Like it's just he's, it's got a really tough path to get back for week one and there's very few guys that show up off of puppies in the middle of the season and look good. It's just a, it's a hard thing to do in the NFL when everybody else is in mid season form and you're playing your first football game.
- [64:57]
Tom Schaefer
Certainly something that we'll be keeping an eye on. And obviously as Dave said and Heath agrees, the Seahawks could be one of those teams on the NFL draft in the NFL draft that add to their backfield. All right, that'll do it for our rankings movers following free agency. Adam will be back on Thursday. I don't know what will be be talking about but we will be harassing him in person in our Fort Lauderdale studios. Looking forward to that and we will talk to you on Thursday with another edition of Fantasy Football Today. For Dave, for Heath, for Tom Schaefer, I'm Jamie Eisenberg. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening.
- [65:27]
Heath C
Be back on.
- [65:38]
Tom Schaefer
Paramount Podcasts
- [65:41]
Jamie Eisenberg
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