Fantasy Football Today: Bills & Commanders Dynasty Values with Adam Pfeifer

Release Date: February 14, 2025

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Heath Cummings delves deep into the dynasty values of two pivotal NFL teams: the Buffalo Bills and the Washington Commanders. Joined by Adam Feifer, a seasoned fantasy football analyst from FTN Fantasy, the duo navigates through player performances, potential breakouts, and strategic considerations essential for maximizing fantasy football success.

1. Introduction and Guest Update [01:22 - 03:54]

Heath Cummings welcomes Adam Feifer back to the show, noting Adam's recent absence and inquiring about his current endeavors. Adam shares updates on his ongoing projects, including:

• Football and Basketball Analysis: Adam continues to produce content focusing on NFL and NBA, emphasizing advanced statistics and team performances.

• Season in Review Series: He is currently engaged in a comprehensive review of all 32 NFL teams, leveraging FTN Fantasy’s advanced stats to dissect player performances and team strategies.

• Upcoming Content: Adam hints at upcoming draft guides and promotions, including a baseball package with a spring training discount, despite his waning interest in baseball.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [02:27]: "I'm doing a lot of football stuff per usual, but also basketball... I'm not as into baseball as I used to be, but I have still the Griffey hat and shirt on."

2. Dynasty Valuation of the Buffalo Bills [11:02 - 22:14]

a. Running Back: James Cook

Heath expresses admiration for James Cook, who led the NFL in touchdowns last season—a performance Adam partially anticipated. However, concerns arise regarding Cook's usage and potential touchdown regression.

• Usage Trends: Cook's involvement decreased last season with fewer rush attempts and receptions. Heath observes, "I think maybe one of the reasons they lost to the Chiefs is they didn't have play James Cook enough."

• Efficiency Metrics: Adam highlights Cook's efficiency, noting he was sixth among running backs in EPA per attempt and averaged 16.5 PPR points per game in Joe Brady's offense.

• Contract Considerations: Cook is approaching the final year of his contract with a $15 million salary demand, raising questions about his future with the Bills.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [14:44]: "He runs for 100 plus yards. Probably should have had a better game in the playoffs against the Chiefs."

b. Wide Receiver: Khalil Shakir vs. Keon Coleman

Heath inquires about the Bills' wide receiver options, specifically Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman.

• Adam's Preference: Adam advocates for Khalil Shakir, citing his role as the primary target in the Joe Brady offense and his integration into a yards-after-catch scheme.

• Coleman's Outlook: While acknowledging Keon Coleman's potential, Adam remains focused on Shakir due to Coleman's injury history and lesser trust from quarterback Josh Allen.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [16:21]: "If this was the Brian Dayball version of the Bills' offense... his ceiling is probably still in that same range but he's not gonna get end zone targets."

c. Tight End: Dalton Kincaid

Dalton Kincaid's performance is scrutinized, with Adam expressing skepticism about his long-term impact.

• Performance Issues: Despite a promising target share in the previous season, Kincaid struggled with efficient route running and consistency.

• Future Projections: Adam leans towards Kincaid not evolving into a top-tier tight end, suggesting limited upside in dynasty formats.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [17:32]: "I don't envision it becoming like a true top five difference-making player at the tight end position."

d. Quarterback: Josh Allen vs. Jaden Daniels

The episode tackles the debate over Josh Allen's future as a dynasty quarterback versus the emerging Jaden Daniels.

• Heath's Perspective: Heath poses the question of whether Jaden Daniels warrants being a QB1 over the seasoned Josh Allen.

• Adam's Insight: While adamantly supportive of Josh Allen, Adam acknowledges Daniels' impressive rookie performance and openness to considering a trade under the right circumstances.

Notable Quotes:

Heath Cummings [19:53]: "Is there a case to be made for Jaden Daniels as the QB one over Josh Allen and Dynasty?"

Adam Feifer [20:28]: "I don't think it's bizarre at all... Jaden Daniels was that good. He was an elite prospect."

3. Dynasty Valuation of the Washington Commanders [22:31 - 29:25]

a. Running Backs: Austin Ekeler & Brian Robinson Jr.

Heath expresses reservations about Austin Ekeler over 30 and Brian Robinson Jr. as a fantasy asset.

• Ekeler's Value: Considered a dynasty flex for contending teams, Ekeler's age and transaction potential diminish his long-term value.

• Robinson Jr.'s Outlook: Comparable to Devin Singletary, Robinson Jr. may secure early-down opportunities but faces competition from emerging RBs in the draft.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [23:11]: "He reminds me of Devin Singletary when he was in Buffalo... just like he's going to get the early down work on a good offense."

b. Wide Receiver: Terry McLaurin

Terry McLaurin's declining touchdown numbers raise red flags for dynasty players.

• Performance Analysis: While McLaurin remains a consistent producer, his touchdown rate has significantly decreased, signaling potential regression.

• Strategic Decisions: Heath and Adam discuss the likelihood of Washington seeking additional WR talent to support McLaurin, impacting his fantasy value.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [25:39]: "He's approaching age 30, like, you can always entertain offers, but I’m not like rushing to get him off my team either."

c. Tight End: Zach Ertz vs. Ben Senate

The Commanders' tight end situation is evaluated, focusing on Zach Ertz and the rookie Ben Senate.

• Ertz's Status: Although older, Ertz remains a reliable option, especially in dynasty formats valuing veteran consistency.

• Senate's Potential: Adam views Ben Senate as a buy-low opportunity, despite the team's overall performance boosting his value indirectly.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [28:23]: "I don’t think he can last a full season because he just doesn't really get a lot of yards after the catch and stuff."

4. Broader Fantasy Football Insights [30:01 - 37:53]

a. Kellen Moore’s New Role in New Orleans

Heath introduces the topic of Kellen Moore transitioning to the Saints' head coaching position, prompting discussions about his offensive strategies.

• Offensive Philosophy: Adam anticipates a fast-paced, no-huddle offense tailored to team strengths, emphasizing versatility in play-calling.

• Quarterback Questions: Concerns linger over the Saints' quarterback stability, particularly regarding Derek Carr and potential shifts in QB positions.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [31:41]: "I think we've seen Kelmore with a handful of different teams with different personnel and he's been pretty darn good."

b. Aaron Rodgers and Devonta Adams

The future of Aaron Rodgers and his impact on Devonta Adams is analyzed amidst Rodgers' departure from the Jets.

• Rodgers' Starting Role: Adam expresses uncertainty about Rodgers securing a consistent starting position, potentially with the Steelers, impacting Adams' target share.

• Adams' Performance: Despite frustrations with target distribution under Rodgers, Adam remains optimistic about Adams’ resilience and future upside with different quarterbacks.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [34:06]: "Aaron Rodgers wasn't that good last year. So like, if whoever they bring in, if it's a downgrade... I’m definitely still in on Garrett Wilson."

c. Garrett Wilson’s Future Prospects

Discussion centers on Garrett Wilson potentially becoming a primary receiver contingent on quarterback stability.

• Heath's Outlook: With Rodgers' departure, Heath speculates that Garrett Wilson could ascend to a WR1 position, especially with the addition of a dynamic quarterback like Jameis Winston.

Notable Quote:

Heath Cummings [36:47]: "I think Garrett Wilson might be the wide receiver one in 2025 if Jameis Winston goes to the Jets."

5. Conclusions and Final Thoughts [37:39 - 38:49]

As the episode wraps up, Heath and Adam reiterate the importance of staying informed and adaptable in dynasty leagues. Adam encourages listeners to explore his work on FTN Fantasy and stay tuned for upcoming content, including draft prospect analyses and the ongoing Season in Review series.

Notable Quote:

Adam Feifer [38:04]: "FTN Fantasy.com check out all my stuff there. Football and basketball, my two loves."

Key Takeaways:

• Buffalo Bills: James Cook remains a high-efficiency RB but faces usage and contract concerns. Khalil Shakir is favored over Keon Coleman for WR roles, while Dalton Kincaid’s TE prospects are limited.

• Washington Commanders: Aging RB Austin Ekeler and the potential of Brian Robinson Jr. present mixed dynasty values. Terry McLaurin remains reliable but shows signs of regression, and the TE position may pivot around Zach Ertz and Ben Senate.

• Quarterback Landscape: The debate between Josh Allen and Jaden Daniels highlights the evolving nature of QB valuations in dynasty formats, influenced by performance consistency and age.

• Coaching and Strategy: Kellen Moore’s offensive strategies in New Orleans could redefine player performances, emphasizing the importance of coaching in fantasy valuations.

This episode offers comprehensive insights into player performances, strategic acquisitions, and future projections essential for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to dominate their leagues.