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Fantasy Football Today
Bills & Commanders Dynasty Values with Adam Pfeifer (Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)
00:41:07
Heath and Adam take a deep dive into the Bills and Commanders rosters, analyzing their offseason value updates.
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- [00:00]
Kristen
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- [00:30]
Dave
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- [01:23]
Heath Cummings
Welcome to fantasy football today Dynasty. I am your host Heath Cummings joined today once my good friend Adam Feifer. Adam, it has been a couple of months since you've been on the show. How you doing?
- [01:36]
Adam Feifer
I just recovered from the yearly tradition of the Chiefs eliminating the Bills. So yeah, I, you know, just this, this time of year I'm pretty much in the same mindset and unfortunately it doesn't really change. But outside of that, I'm doing good. Appreciate, uh, you having me on. Always fun to chat.
- [01:54]
Heath Cummings
Your Cavs have the best record in basketball, right?
- [01:57]
Adam Feifer
Yeah. And luckily we. We don't have time for me to have to discuss and share with everybody why I'm a Bills fan and a Cavs fan. But just know I've been a Cavs fan for a long, long time, so it's not recent.
- [02:11]
Heath Cummings
Listen, as someone who's a Chiefs fan and a Celtics fan, I'm just happy you still talk to me. We always like to take a minute at the top of the show. I know, like people have heard from you enough, they probably know where to find your work.
- [02:23]
Adam Feifer
But.
- [02:23]
Heath Cummings
But just tell in case we Got a new listener. Where, where can people find your work? What have you been working on?
- [02:28]
Adam Feifer
Yeah, over@ftnfantasy.com I'm doing a lot of football stuff per usual, but also basketball, you know, took a little bit of a brief hiatus with the podcast during the playoffs and back yesterday and today with a new series calling it kind of like a season in review where I'm going through all 32 teams recapping what happened, using a lot of our advanced stats hub stuff to talk about why certain players perform certain ways. So Thursday I had Michael Florio on from NFL Fantasy to talk about the Bills, which was a 50 minute podcast because we're both Bills fans. And then today I did a Miami Dolphins episode which was really fun because that team had a lot of clear factors to why they performed the way they did. Mainly, you know, TUA being out. So that's going to be something I'm doing a couple times a week. And then also if you are into baseball, with baseball season rapidly approaching, I know you used to do baseball. I don't believe you do it anymore. No, I used to do it as well and FTN is for the better because I just, basketball and football have always been towards the top for me. But we have an awesome baseball team. We have a draft guide that's up and we're also running a promo code right now up until spring training. To get a baseball package, use the promo code. Spring 15, you can get 15% off. I'm not as into baseball as I used to be, but I have still the Griffey hat and shirt on. And you know, pretty much since he retired, I slowly started to fall off baseball.
- [03:54]
Heath Cummings
I, I, I went I think three years without watching a baseball game. But then the Royals made the playoffs this year. So I, I watched a little bit, just enough to watch them.
- [04:02]
Adam Feifer
I mean I'm, I'm in the PA area, so like I, I support the Phillies. I would not call myself like a die hard Phillies fan, but they've obviously been really good. So I've gotten more into it with the Phillies and Bryce Harper, but yeah, nowhere close to what I used to be.
- [04:15]
Heath Cummings
That is the most unique combination of Bills, Cavs, Phillies. I absolutely love it. On today's show we're gonna, we're gonna do a little something similar to what we did last week, which when we talked about kind of the dynasty value and the dynasty questions around the two teams who were in the super bowl, the Chiefs and the Eagles. This week we're going to talk about the two teams that they prevented from going into the super bowl, the Bills and the Commanders. We'll also talk a little bit about Kellen Moore in New Orleans and we, I don't, I'm not sure if we've talked enough about Aaron Rodgers and Devonte ad likely not in New York. But as always, we start with three questions for our guests and it's Valentine's Day so we'll do the shtick. Who is one player who you love at cost in Dynasty?
- [04:57]
Adam Feifer
Yeah, so I thought about this for a decent amount of time actually and right around a little bit. You know, this time last offseason I was in one of my leagues just fully rebuilding. I was stockpiling a bunch of picks and one of the main reasons other than the fact that like my team had to go in that direction because I had a lot of veterans was I wanted to make sure and do whatever I could to get Roma Dunes on my team. He's one of my favorite prospects, not just last year but you know, in a while. And obviously his rookie season isn't what we thought it was and he's probably being devalued a little bit now because a handful of the rookie receivers that were drafted after him, lad McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr. They're pretty easily ahead of him now. So I think people are slowly forgetting about Rome and I think that's a mistake. And like I, I would trade any first round pick in this rookie draft outside of the 101 to get Rome on my team, especially with the wide receiver class not being as strong. You look at it like it was a bad year all around for the Bears offense. We know that. But Rome was like getting all the air yards. It's just 38.3% of them were deemed uncatchable. It was the fifth lowest rate or fifth highest rate I should say among wide receivers. Just he didn't get a lot of the schemed easy stuff. There was a couple times we had to give him some end arounds and stuff, but mostly that went to DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. I don't know if Keenan Allen will be back. I think I saw the last time the report was he's either going to play in Chicago, Louisiana or retire. And the most important thing is obviously Ben Johnson. I just think Ben Johnson is third at worst and probably even better in terms of play callers in the league. You look at Caleb Williams last season too. Looking at a lot of the advanced metrics we have at FTN Fantasy, just 47.9 of Caleb Williams drop backs last season included motion. It was Outside the top 21 quarterbacks in the league, whereas Jared Goff with Ben Johnson in Detroit last year was over 71%, the highest rate in the league. I'm a huge fan of motion. I think it just helps everything with the offense. Rome's going to get a lot of those layup targets. I think this year on top of just being still a really good prospect, Caleb should be better. Hopefully has more time to throw the football. Just the overall scheme will be better. I still think Rome is an immense talent so I have him on one team. But any other league I would love to try to get Roma dun if people are worried about one down rookie season.
- [07:20]
Heath Cummings
One thing I love about having you on the show is you always bring the great stats and that's what FT FTN fantasy is all about, obviously. But I also love it when those stats confirm what I felt like I saw. And watching Bears games last year, it felt like every Roma Dunes A target was the worst throw that Caleb Williams had on that drive. Like he'd throw the ball to Keenan Allen, DJ Moore, everything's fine. He throws the ball to Roma Dunes a and it's 700 miles an hour, like 3ft too high. And so that, that's probably not going to last. Keeping with the theme of things that you love, what are some of your current favorite settings and options for dynasty leagues right now?
- [08:01]
Adam Feifer
Yeah, not so much a setting. It's just like if I'm in a dynasty league, simply put, like I just want it to be active. I'm not saying, you know, early February there has to be everybody chatting, everybody's trading. But like there is, it's really off putting when you are in a dynasty league and there's just, even if it's not myself making trades, like I just want stuff to happen. So again I'm not saying like obviously if you're content with your team, yeah don't make any trades. But like it's, there's. There's been times where it's like been four weeks and nothing's happened like in season and stuff. And it's just try to be as active as possible. And like also like if you're a team that's just not contending, that's when you should probably be most active. And there's. There's been times where teams just aren't even checking the the league and stuff like that aren't answering, aren't responding or countering trade. So not so much a setting but just like keep it active and just also on the same page. Just have fun with it.
- [09:01]
Heath Cummings
Love it, love it, love it. Final question. Is there one coaching change from this offseason that you're really excited about for next year?
- [09:09]
Adam Feifer
I would say Kellen Moore's up there. We'll talk about him in a little bit. I did like the Clint Kubiak move to Seattle. I think, you know, there was a, there was a interview with him talking about Ken Walker and how he can fit in the outside zone scheme. I think that could be a lot of fun, especially if they get Ken Walker, who was starting to get more usage in the passing game this year. Like, if he can just stay healthy, I think he could be a much better fit in that offense. Plus you have the fact that Kubiak, what do you do? I remember there was a time last year where we were like, oh my God, the Saints are the best offense in the league. And that lasted two weeks, but everybody got hurt. Like we saw what JSN did last season and now we could get again on the theme of motion, like a lot more motion, a lot more of that stuff. So I'm excited about Clint Kubiak. I'd say not a head coaching hire, but taking over the offense in Seattle there.
- [09:57]
Heath Cummings
Let's take a short break and then we'll get into the Bills and Commanders for Dynasty.
- [10:02]
Adam Feifer
What is Dax?
- [10:03]
Dax
Are you tracking all our cars on Carvana Value tracker on all our devices? Yes, Kristen, yes I am.
- [10:10]
Kristen
Well, I've been looking for my phone.
- [10:11]
Dax
For In Dax's domain we see all so we always know what our cars are worth.
- [10:16]
Ben
All of them?
- [10:16]
Dax
All of them. Value surge trucks up 3.9%.
- [10:21]
Adam Feifer
That's a great offer.
- [10:22]
Dax
I know.
- [10:23]
Heath Cummings
Sell Sell.
- [10:26]
Dax
Track your car's value with Carvana Value Tracker today.
- [10:31]
Ben
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- [11:03]
Theo
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- [11:29]
Heath Cummings
Fantastic job by Dave in that commercial. So, so, so good. Let's talk about the Bills. And my favorite bill coming into 2024 was James Cook. Absolutely. Now, I didn't predict he was going to lead the NFL in touchdowns. I think I did predict he would have a care in touchdowns. There was a big gap in between those two things. But now I'm getting a little bit nervous, Adam, because I think he, he obviously stands out as one of the most obvious touchdown regression candidates. And his usage last year actually got worse. He averaged fewer rush attempts per game, fewer receptions per game. They're using three backs throughout the season, even in the playoffs. And I think maybe one of the reasons they lost to the Chiefs is they didn't have play James Cook enough. Do you think there's any hope that his usage improves or should we expect. Step back.
- [12:19]
Adam Feifer
Yeah. So I was with you on Jimbo. He was one of my five favorite players in Redraft this off season. And yeah, I didn't expect. I liked him because I thought he would catch like 50, 60 passes. That didn't happen. But he scored 16 rushing touchdowns. There were some positive signs outside of that, obviously. First of all, like I've been asked this for years as somebody that watches all the Bills games, like, is this the year Josh Allen finally runs less? And every year I say no, this year finally happened. Like Josh Allen from 2022 to 2023 had 25 carries from. It's at the five yard line. James Cook only had four during that span. But then this year he had 13 of those carries and Josh only had 10. So they clearly made it more of an effort to like say, you know what these huge games, you know, the Chiefs game, the Lions game, that's when we'll have Josh run. Otherwise, let's just, let's just kind of limit that. And then he's always been really efficient. He was six among running backs in EPA per attempt. And I've been tracking this since week 11 of the 2023 season when Joe Brady took over the offense. There's now been 28 games, regular season and postseason where James Cook has played in Joe Brady's offense. In those games, he's averaging 17 touches, about 90 scrimmage yards, and just over 16 and a half PPR points per game. So he's been really, really good. The obvious question is a, the usage, right? He's only played more than 55% of the snapshot three times all year long. Ty Johnson, they love 64% of the third downs were his last year. And Ray Davis gets maybe a drive per game. Then there's this stuff about, I don't know if you saw, but James Cook apparently wants $15 million a year. This is the last year of his contract. He's been awesome. I, I don't think the Bills are going to pay him $15 million a year. So that'll be interesting from a dynasty aspect if he only has one more year in Buffalo. Yeah, I mean this run scheme is so good, the power run scheme. They run that, you know, jumbo package where they have Alec Anderson as the six offensive lineman like 30 of the time and they just run on every. Everybody, right? Like Detroit, that game. I was like, okay, I don't think this is going to be a game for James Cook. And he runs for 100 plus yards. Probably should have had a better game in the playoffs against the Chiefs. But they for whatever reason went away from him. Like, I think he is as good like, I think after like the top tier of running backs in terms of talent. If you have like Saquon McCaffrey, Jameer Gibbs, Derrick Henry, I think James Cook isn't that next second tier. I think he's that good.
- [14:43]
Heath Cummings
I agree with that. Talent wise.
- [14:45]
Adam Feifer
Right. But again, like 55 of the snaps as a ceiling is like you have to continue to be either really efficient, which I think he will be on a per carry basis, but would you be surprised if he had eight Russian touchdowns this year? Because I wouldn't.
- [14:59]
Heath Cummings
No, not at all. So question number two. Khalil Shakir or Keon Coleman in Dynasty?
- [15:06]
Adam Feifer
Yeah, it's Shakir for me. It's not close.
- [15:09]
Heath Cummings
Were you discouraged by Coleman or do you think that, that Shakir's got a chance for a true breakout next year?
- [15:16]
Adam Feifer
I think it's more so. I just have always been a huge fan of Shakir and like it was no secret that that was the most trustworthy player for Josh Allen. And it wasn't like insane volume because they had this mantra in Buffalo where everybody eats everybody except for Kincaid apparently. And like Keon was starting to come on and then he hurt his wrist. I believe in the, I think it was the Miami game late in the game and Brandon Bean talked about it in his end of season press Conference where he said like, he really just couldn't get back to that form. So I think Keon can still be, you know, really fine. I'm just higher on Shakir. I think he's getting in this Joe Birdie offense that's way more, you know, built off yards after the catch. Josh Allen career high and yards after the catch per completion this year, like that's going to be Shakir as the top target in this offense. So for me it's, it's not so much as like, oh, I think after one year, Keon Coleman's a massive bust. It's more so. I just think Shakir is clearly the focal point of this passing game and the player Josh Allen trusts the most.
- [16:21]
Heath Cummings
I had a question from the chat. What is Shakir's upside? Could you see a top 20 season for him or do you think low end wide receiver 2, high end wide receiver 3 is probably the upside?
- [16:32]
Adam Feifer
If this were like the Brian Dayball version of this, Bill's offense. Yeah, top 20 because they would just, you know, they spread out, play four wide and throw the ball 60 of the time. But in this version where they're actually one of the more run heavy teams of football, I'd say his ceiling is probably like, probably still in that same range but like he's not gonna, he doesn't get end zone targets. That really does hurt him. I would say like top 24 is a ceiling.
- [16:58]
Heath Cummings
You mentioned him. Dalton Kincaid, a massive disappointment this year. Even talking about.
- [17:04]
Adam Feifer
Yeah, we won't talk about the AFC championship game either. So.
- [17:07]
Heath Cummings
Right. Like I was down on Dalton Kincaid and he's still busted. Based on my ranking of him coming into this year, the tight end position at Den Dynasty is basically Bowers and McBride. And then I guess Laporta is the.
- [17:20]
Adam Feifer
Clear number three on Tyler Warren, I guess.
- [17:23]
Theo
Right.
- [17:23]
Heath Cummings
Could be anybody at four or five. Do you have any hope that Dalton Kincaid is going to become an elite tight end in fantasy or are you just kind of hoping he's a Dallas Goddard?
- [17:33]
Adam Feifer
Yeah, I mean, I'm starting to lean towards the latter. And I was really high on Kincaid too, because last year when Stefan Diggs was off the field in his final season in Buffalo, Kincaid had a 22.6% target share on those plays. So I was like, okay, he's going to be the focal point. Like there's not many tight ends that have a chance to lead their team in targets. And I remember the week one game against Arizona just had a goose egg for like three quarters. And I go back and watch the game and he's being triple covered. I'm like, wow, is that the respect Dalton Kincaid's Getting? And then 20th and PPR points per game among tight ends. Four end zone targets still splitting time and routes with Dawson, Knox and Brandon Bean talked about this in his end of season press conference that Kincaid needs to bulk up and he's not somebody that was ever really somebody you want run blocking at Utah and on a team that plays this power run scheme and has these six offensive linemen like you want him out there on those plays in case they run play action in case they audible and that's not his role right now. I still think he's going to be the clear number two option this offense, barring some move or whether they keep Amari Cooper and he finally gets more involved. But yeah, I don't, I don't envision and it hurts me to say this because they traded up for him and everything like that. I don't envision it becoming like a true top five difference making player at the tight end position.
- [18:52]
Heath Cummings
Are there any hidden gems on this Bills roster that you're trying to acquire?
- [18:57]
Adam Feifer
I mean you can keep an eye on Ray Davis because Ty Johnson is a free agent. I do think the Bills will try to get him back because they think he's the best third down running back in the league and he's like legitimately made plays to win them games. But if Ray Davis for whatever reason got that role, we know James Cook's not going to be somebody they want to play more than like 60 of the snaps. That could be interesting. And Ray Davis, we had that one spot start against the jets where he was really impressive, especially if you have James Cook on your team. I would try to go get Ray Davis. Other than that though, like Curtis Samuel was a bust. He didn't really do anything until the playoffs. I mean Matt Collins they like, but like you don't really want to start Matt Collins. I envision they try to bring him back too. There's really not anybody else that stands out. Amari Cooper obviously, you know, 31, 32 years old. We'll see if they bring him back. So there's a lot of uncertainty with the pass catching options outside of Shakir and I guess Coleman and then everybody else is kind of old or one year deals. So I, I don't really think so.
- [19:54]
Heath Cummings
We're going to transition from the Bills to the commanders here. But of course there's one Bills player we didn't talk about yet and I get a lot of hate for saying that. I hate Josh Allen and I don't. He is currently my QB1 in dynasty. But I do have a question. Is. Is because he's 29 years old going into next year, Jaden Daniels looked fantastic as a rookie and looks like he has almost as much upside. Is there a case to be made for Jaden Daniels as the QB one over Josh Allen and Dynasty Heath?
- [20:29]
Adam Feifer
Do you. Do you know many Josh Allen fans like the people that love Josh Allen more than I do? No, I think there's a case.
- [20:38]
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
- [20:38]
Adam Feifer
I just. It's just like to do that as a rookie and to have the age. I know it's quarterback. I think Josh Allen plays for another, you know, seven plus years or whatever. But like I just like that rookie season was insane. They're probably going to add more offensive line help and more help at wide receiver. I like I haven't sat down and done Dynasty rankings. It'll be borderline impossible for me to rank anybody ahead of Josh Allen. But I know that people have Jaden Daniels ranked ahead of Josh Allen and I don't really think it's crazy at all. Like right. If you have him as the quarterback one in Dynasty I think that's perfectly fine. I would probably still lean Josh, but I don't think it's bizarre at all. And that's coming from again the top Josh Allen fan on the planet. I just think Jane Daniels was that good. He was an elite prospect obviously. And I, I just always go back to how good he was in the clutch. Like he was top five in touchdowns, EPA per drop back all those advanced metrics in the fourth quarter and overtime. Like as a rookie. Yeah, like he's the real deal.
- [21:41]
Heath Cummings
Jacob asks what does a realistic offer look like for you to actually accept Jaden for Josh. Jaden in a first Jaden and two first. And I'll say and if I had Josh Allen and somebody offered me Jaden Daniels and a first round rookie pick.
- [21:55]
Adam Feifer
Yeah.
- [21:55]
Heath Cummings
I would jump on that so fast. I'd come here and do a show and tell you guys about it afterwards. But before I would.
- [22:01]
Adam Feifer
I mean like you could you. I would, I would honestly like again, cannot stress this enough. The, the number one Josh Allen fan in the world. If I got something in my inbox where it was I give up Josh for Jaden straight up. I would think about that. And then if you're getting A plus.
- [22:15]
Heath Cummings
Yeah right. I think like we did see in terms of fantasy production a little step back from Josh this year. You mentioned it that they finally I think wisely decided, you know, maybe we don't need him to run the ball eight times a game against some of these teams that we don't need them to run the ball eight times.
- [22:32]
Adam Feifer
There was a couple just brutal games too like the Baltimore and Houston stretch where he was just awful. But yeah, like they, this was the first year where I was wrong and they actually had him run less and.
- [22:43]
Heath Cummings
And as he moves into his 30s, that's probably going to happen more, not less often. Moving over to the commanders fully now, I, I have a really hard time getting excited. Obviously Austin eckler is over 30 and still looks really good in a small sample size, but he's just a dynasty flex for a contender only. But I have a hard time getting excited about Brian Robinson Jr also. Can you help me out there or do. Is he just like a flex at best as well?
- [23:12]
Adam Feifer
You know he reminds me of, reminds me of Devin Singletary when he was in Buffalo. Yeah, just like he's going to get the early down work on a good offense but he's going to lose rushing touchdowns to the quarterback and there's somebody else that's going to take pass game work from him. It's kind of reminds me of and like he'll have some good games. Obviously you like the pace that Washington played with cliff, you know, 60 plus percent, no huddle rate. Like there's going to be a lot of really good fantasy games from Washington. But yeah, I don't really disagree about not being too excited about him. Plus like I wouldn't be surprised if Washington added a running back in the draft.
- [23:52]
Heath Cummings
No, I, I and I think like that is just you could take the Washington out of that and 90 of the teams in the NFL as good as this draft class. Like you're hearing there's 25 running backs in this class who might be worthy of a draft pick. There's going to be guys added on day three that can actually compete for touches this year.
- [24:12]
Adam Feifer
I, this is going to be like the ultimate sweat for dynasty teams. When you're watching the draft and it's like okay, please don't draft. You know I have, right, I have Chase Brown, please don't draft the running backs in Saudi. It's gonna be a lot of that, that type of sweat during the draft.
- [24:24]
Heath Cummings
Like it, I'm okay giving up Brian Robinson for an early second. It's kind of where I'm at and that might be especially in this class.
- [24:32]
Adam Feifer
Like if you just want like, you know, I mean like you can get Somebody that in a year's time could be better than Brian Robinson pretty easily.
- [24:39]
Heath Cummings
I want to move over to wide receiver. And Terry McLaurin just had an awesome year and Terry McLaurin is an awesome player, but I again, kind of like James Cook. I've got a little bit of concern here because when you go and look at the actual numbers, he had 117 targets last year. That's the lowest he's had since his rookie year. He caught 82 passes. That was the second best season of his career, had 1096 receiving yards. That was the third best season of his career. The one thing that changed was the fact that he caught 13 touchdown passes on 117 targets. So obviously the big regression alarm is blaring red in terms of touchdown catches. Previous career high was seven. I think what you would expect with 117 targets is seven or eight. And I'm expecting that Washington is going to go add a better number two wide receiver than they had last year. Would you call Terry McLaurin at entering his age 29 season, a dynasty cell?
- [25:39]
Adam Feifer
I think he can be, but I also don't think if he's on your roster, you have to look at and say, okay, time to. Time to take advantage of this just because I. And look, I was really worried after like week one in the preseason because they were. Remember in the preseason there was all this screen close line of scrimmage stuff. And I'm just hoping, I'm assuming, and I was hoping at the time it was okay, we don't want to show our hand. And then in week one, everything was close to line of scrimmage. And then finally they started to move Terry around the formation a little bit more and get in more deep passes. And then he was just unbelievable. I do think 13 touchdowns is a lot. I'm not expecting that. But like. And you don't project or count on deep passing touchdowns. But with Jaden and Terry, I feel like you're getting like a handful of those each year. And in this wide receiver free agent class and the draft, like, it sounds like there's a chance T. Higgins return to Cincinnati. And at that point it's like, unless they get like Chris Godwin, like, who can they actually bring in? That really takes meaningful targets away from McLaurin. That's what it comes down to for me. So, like, again, he's approaching age 30, like, you can always entertain offers, but I'm not like rushing to get him off my team either, just because I'm so high on him as A player. And like, we've been waiting for Terry to have an elite quarterback for so long now. So, like, now that it's here, I kind of want to just maybe ride it out.
- [26:58]
Heath Cummings
No, I, I think that makes sense. And again, it's. You hate to trade away guys who you think are actually really good players. It's just also that I think if you're viewing this in terms of Terry McLaurin's value, right. And this, there's a very good chance this is the peak.
- [27:15]
Adam Feifer
Absolutely.
- [27:16]
Heath Cummings
And so it, especially if you're not contending this year, I would be moving off of Terry McClure.
- [27:23]
Adam Feifer
That's. That's a totally different discussion. I 100 agree.
- [27:26]
Heath Cummings
Speaking of guys who shouldn't be on anyone's roster if they're not contending, Zach Ertz, I think probably wants to go back to Washington and surprisingly is still pretty good at running 6 yards and catching the ball and falling down. But we saw this in Arizona a couple years ago. Trey McBride gets drafted. Some of us, myself included, get really excited about Trey McBride plays behind Zach Ertz for the entire season, doesn't matter at all. And then he actually had to play behind Zach Ertz for the first part of the next season until Ertz got hurt. And then Trey McBride turns into one of the best tight ends in fantasy. Last year, Ben Senate gets drafted by the Commanders, who was some people's favorite tight end in the class, and he gets this H back designation or whatever. And Zach Ertz is by far, far the best option at tight end on the team and realistically pretty good. I just wonder if, if they don't bring him back. Are you expecting a Ben Senate breakout? Is that somebody you want to buy low on right now?
- [28:23]
Adam Feifer
I, I wouldn't hate the idea of buying low on him even if he is back, just because like you said, like earth's play style really isn't where it's like, I don't, I don't think he can last a full season because he just doesn't really get a lot of yards after the catch and stuff. But he's obviously older. I, I like the selection of Ben Senate when they drafted him. I think he can do a lot of different things for them. And again, like outside of Terry McLaurin, like there's targets available there. And I just think, I think we would have been viewing Ben Senate differently if Washington didn't come out of nowhere and exceed expectations going the NFC title game. Like if they were a seven win team and they just didn't take this massive leap. We probably see more from Ben Senate in a year where they're not making the playoffs. But when you're, when every game is so huge for that team. Yeah, you're relying on the veteran a lot more. So I think that maybe had a lot more to do with it. But again, you look at it okay, they just made the NFC championship game and they should be better next year, so. But also rookie tight end, hard position to learn. I'm cool with buying low on Ben Senate regardless.
- [29:26]
Heath Cummings
I do still have Theo Johnson and Jatavian Sanders ahead of him in the Dynasty rankings from last year's class. I think there's probably three tight ends who might be ranked higher than Ben Senate and Dynasty after, after the NFL draft. Yeah, but that could change really quickly. I would, I'd be interested to see if I could turn a third round pick into Ben Senate. And I think it's a, there's a decent chance that you could after he did just almost nothing and in some leagues he was drafted. He was a borderline third round pick last year. Let's take one more break. When we come back, we'll talk Kellen Moore. We'll talk Aaron Rodgers and Devonte Adams. And if you have any questions for Adam, we'll answer those as well.
- [30:01]
Ben
I can say to my new Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra, hey, find a keto friendly restaurant nearby and text it to Beth and Steve. And it does without me lifting a finger so I can get in more squats anywhere I can. 1, 2, 3.
- [30:16]
Dax
Will that be cash or credit?
- [30:18]
Heath Cummings
Credit.
- [30:19]
Adam Feifer
4 Galaxy S25 Ultra.
- [30:22]
Heath Cummings
The AI companion that does the heavy lifting. So you can do you get yours@samsung.com.
- [30:27]
Adam Feifer
Compatible with select apps.
- [30:28]
Heath Cummings
Requires Google Gemini account Receive.
- [30:29]
Adam Feifer
Results may vary based on input. Check responses for accuracy.
- [30:32]
Jaden Daniels
This episode is brought to you by Allstate. Some people just know they could save hundreds on car insurance by checking Allstate first. Like you know to check the date of the big game first before you accidentally buy tickets on your 20th wedding anniversary and have to spend the next 20 years of your marriage making up for it. Yeah, checking first is smart. So check Allstate first for a quote that could save you hundreds. You're in good hands with Allstate Savings. Vary terms apply. Allstate Fire and Casualty Insurance company and affiliate Northbrook, Illinois. Illinois.
- [31:03]
Heath Cummings
So Kellen Moore wins the super bowl, takes the Saints head coaching job and Adam. One of the things I like to do when I'm going through my 2025 projections process is look at the last three years play calling history from the guy who I think is going to be running the offense, and that's Kellen Moore in New Orleans. And there's no coordinator you will find with a more diverse recent history of offensive play calling between what he did in Dallas, what he did in Los Angeles, what he did in Philadelphia. I think that speaks to the fact that Kellen Moore is a really good coordinator and will adjust based on his talent. What are you expecting from him in New Orleans and who are you excited about?
- [31:42]
Adam Feifer
Yeah, for starters, I think we should see a lot of pace. He's always been a coordinator that plays up tempo. This past season, Eagles, I believe, were second in no huddle, right behind Washington. I also think we've seen. Now granted he's had CD Lamb and he's had Keenan Allen, but I remember to start the season, Devonta Smith. I was so excited about last year because they were playing him in the slot more and then like if, if the Eagles defense didn't become what it was, I think Devonta Smith would have had a monster year. But then they ran the ball at the highest rate in football essentially and Smith was getting like six targets per game. So I think we could see more Crystal Ave in the slot and more of the. We started to see it last year too until he got hurt. But it was way less of the go routes and deep balls from Chris Olave and more of the underneath stuff over the middle stuff. I think we can continue to see that from him and have him play in the slot more, which I'm pretty excited about. So I'm excited about that. I'm excited about the pace really comes down to like maybe Derek Carr's a quarterback, but I could see them moving on from him. That's really the only question mark I have right now. But yeah, I mean we've seen Kelmore with a handful of different teams with different personnel and he's, he's made, you know, the charges here wasn't the greatest, but for the most part he's been pretty, pretty, pretty darn good.
- [32:55]
Heath Cummings
Isn't that quarterback situation right now, like, I can't remember a year like this.
- [32:59]
Adam Feifer
Yeah.
- [33:00]
Heath Cummings
When there's so many teams that I feel like could move off.
- [33:02]
Adam Feifer
We did an article with a bunch of the, the writers at FTN where we had to predict the quarter all 32 quarterbacks next year. And there's obviously the easy ones like the Bills, the Chiefs, the Eagles, stuff like that. But then there was teams like the Titans and the Giants and the Saints and The. And the Steelers and the jets, it's like could be six different players.
- [33:22]
Heath Cummings
And there's. The problem is like, it's kind of a weak quarterback class, right?
- [33:26]
Adam Feifer
Yep.
- [33:26]
Heath Cummings
And there's not a ton of free agents. Really excited. Like there's some guys right now, I think that we're not expecting to be starting quarterbacks in the NFL that are going to be starting quarterbacks.
- [33:35]
Adam Feifer
Yeah. Like the one quarterback I didn't have starting was Justin Fields. And I think he could be starting this by, by next season pretty easily. Like, I just. It was a fun exercise, but it was also like frustrating because like there was those six, seven teams where it was just like, good luck. I don't know.
- [33:50]
Heath Cummings
So one of the guys who will not be starting for his team that he started on last year, the Jets. Aaron Rodgers and the jets are split, parting ways. How confident are you that Rogers is going to be a starter next year? And is he. Is he. Is he still a starter in a super flex league? I guess.
- [34:06]
Adam Feifer
Yeah. Spoiler. I had him on the Steelers in that article, but I'll perfectly honest, it was. It was purely a guess. Like he still wants to play. They'll need a quarterback probably. And their defense good enough to where I think they're going to be like, hey, let's just go get this guy. We can maybe contend and maybe make the playoffs. Yeah, I mean, like he had some games last year, but if he's on the Steelers or something, like, it's way different. Like the jets actually threw the ball quite a bit with Rogers. Where the Steelers, like, I think they're just going to want to run the football. We'll see who their running back is too, but run the football, Play defense. Yeah, he's a borderline starter. He's just. You haven't been excited about Rogers for like four years now.
- [34:43]
Heath Cummings
No. And I, to be honest, I wasn't very excited about devonte Adams going into last year. That looked right the first half of the year and in the second half of the year, he was just devonte Adams again, in a good way because of his fantasy production and in a bad way because his target hogging ruined Garrett Wilson in the second.
- [35:02]
Adam Feifer
More frustrating than my most important redraft team having Garrett Wilson and just watching the jets games. And like, especially it was the Jacksonville game. They get down to the one and I'm like, oh, they're just gonna force a fade to devonte Adams. Yep, they did like, oh my. It was, it was. I get it. And I love devonte Adams. One of my favorite receivers of the last decade. But like, it was, it was pretty tilting at times.
- [35:25]
Heath Cummings
Are we just expecting that wherever he goes this year he's gonna average 10 targets a game again?
- [35:30]
Adam Feifer
I think I saw what he wants. He would like to play on the west coast. So like, maybe the Chargers, maybe the Rams. I don't. It's, it's a lot more difficult with Adams because, like, if he didn't go to Aaron Rodgers and the jets, is he definitely getting 10 targets per game? I think he still has the skill set to command 10 targets per game, but the, the Rogers effect had a lot to do with that for sure. Yeah, I don't know. I think he's probably like 8 to 10, depending on the landing spot. Like, if he was, if he pretty much took Cooper Cup's role, would. Would you expect 10 targets per game from him?
- [36:11]
Heath Cummings
I would hope that he would not negatively impact Puka Nakuya. I could absolutely see him negatively impacting lad McConkey for sure.
- [36:20]
Adam Feifer
And like, again, take it with a grain of salt because it's Aaron Rodgers. But when he joined the jets last season, Devonte Adams, he had almost 35% of the jets red zone targets. Like, yeah, if you were hoping Garrett Wilson scored a touchdown, it would pretty much had to come from 20 plus yards out.
- [36:37]
Heath Cummings
Absolutely maddening. On the flip side of that, are you, are you just all the way back in on Garrett Wilson now with Adams gone, or do you need to see who the quarterback is first?
- [36:47]
Adam Feifer
I'm mostly in because, like, you still watch him and you still see a good player. And like, let's, let's just be honest, like, Aaron Rodgers wasn't that good last year. So like, I don't even know, like, if whoever they bring in, if it's, if it's a downgrade, if at all. So I think he's probably seen his value drop a little bit, especially with some of these rookie receivers coming up. Like, Brian Thomas Jr. Is pretty easily ahead of him, for instance. But like, I'm not. I'm definitely still in on him. I'm not like all in, but I'm, I'm in on Gary Wilson still. He's produced with bad situations, bad quarterback play, and all it takes is that one year, like we saw from Terry McLaurin, like, talented player, just finally has the right situation around him and then you have a top five season.
- [37:35]
Heath Cummings
I assume we're on the same page and hoping that he gets Jameis Winston.
- [37:39]
Adam Feifer
I mean, just ask Jerry Judy, like any, anybody.
- [37:43]
Heath Cummings
And I think that's like he's the the wild card for wide the wide receiver position is I think wherever he ends up if a team.
- [37:49]
Adam Feifer
Jared Judy averaged 21 PPR points per game in Jameson starts, so Garrett Wilson.
- [37:53]
Heath Cummings
Might be the wide receiver one in 2025 if Jameis Winston goes to the Jets. Adam, fantastic stuff as always. Always enjoy talking to you. Remind everybody where they can find your work and tell them what you've got coming up.
- [38:04]
Adam Feifer
Yeah, appreciate it. It's always fun chatting with you. Heath FTN fantasy.com check out all my stuff there. Football and basketball, my two loves. And yeah, the podcast for the numbers at FTN Fantasy doing the Season in Review series. And then I'm starting to do, you know, I gotta start. I'm not sure how deep you've gotten into it, but you look at the calendar, it's already mid February. It's time to start getting into the draft prospects, which is always fun. So I gotta start doing that. But I'll be doing content for that as well.
- [38:31]
Heath Cummings
Thank you to Adam. Thank you to Thomas. Thank you everybody who was active in the chat today. We will talk to you next Tuesday.
- [38:49]
Adam Feifer
Paramount Podcasts.