Bold Calls for 2026! “I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If…” (05/18 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Bold Calls for 2026! “I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If…”

Date: May 18, 2026
Host & Analysts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into bold predictions for the 2026 fantasy football season, engaging in the classic “I wouldn’t be surprised if…” format. Alongside sharp debate and statistical reasoning, the crew brings the laughs and a little drama with a detailed “Fantasy Cops” league dispute. Notably, the guys tackle NFL news, dissect potential breakout and bust players, and spark discussions any fantasy football fanatic will find valuable. The show is punctuated by authentic reactions, memorable lines, and signature banter.

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Major Segments & Timestamps

1. Fantasy Cops League Drama (2:46-16:36, 60:36-64:52)
2. News & Notes (18:45-21:02)
3. Bold Calls for 2026 — “I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If…”
   • Dallas Cowboys Underwhelm (21:02-24:51)
   • Trey McBride’s TE Rank (25:01-30:46)
   • Kyler Murray Top 10 QB? (31:15-33:54)
   • Parker Washington Top 20 WR? (33:54-40:33)
   • Quinshon Judkins Leads NFL in Carries (41:34-43:11)
   • Josh Downs vs Alec Pierce (43:11-50:28)
   • Jalen Waddle Top 12 WR? (50:29-52:25)
   • A.J. Brown’s Possible Down Year (52:25-57:25)
   • Omarion Hampton vs. Devon Achane (57:25-60:13)
4. Resolution and Commissioner Lessons (60:36-64:52)

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Fantasy Cops: Dynasty League Commissioner Saga

[02:46-16:36 | 60:36-64:52]

• The Scenario: Heath’s dynasty rookie draft hits chaos when a manager, Dan, fails to clear enough roster space—despite multiple prior incidents and reminders.
• The Fallout: Dan attempts to circumvent the rule by trading away and then (illicitly) trading back players to create draft room. The league chat goes nuclear, prompting serious debate about commissioner duties, rule clarity, and fairness.
• Resolution:
  • Jamie: “That is not legal... making a trade with the agreement that you will reverse it in the future is not okay. Like, that’s not debatable, right?” (11:31)
  • Dave: “If you let Dan retroactively drop players or let that trade go through…that just opens the door to more BS from other managers down the line.” (15:55)
  • Heath: Sympathy for Dan, but acknowledges it’s Dan’s repeated neglect; “I tried. I really tried. I think it’s on you, man.” (15:02)
  • Final ruling leans toward enforcing the rule and not allowing collusion-esque workarounds, even for third-round picks.
• Memorable Moment:
  • Adam, in jest: “If there’s a word I would use for Dan, it’s scatterbrained…But he’s my favorite colleague. Don’t tell my other colleagues.” (63:03)

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2. News & Notes

[18:45-21:02]

• Aaron Rodgers: Now on a one-year deal with Pittsburgh. “He’s had basically the same season three years in a row with three different teams,” observes Heath, highlighting consistent but not stellar production.
• Bucky Irving: Limited in OTAs, aiming for camp readiness. Raiders RB room discussed, with Mike Washington Jr. in line for a bigger role.
• Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte: Skipping voluntary OTAs and could be traded.
• Banter leads into A.J. Brown as a segue to bold calls.

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3. Bold Calls for 2026: “I Wouldn’t Be Surprised If…”

Dallas Cowboys: Every Dallas Player Underwhelms

[21:02-24:51]

• Dave: Predicts underperformance due to a better defense and less passing volume. “I just, I feel like maybe we’re overrating them just a little bit…Pickens is good, Lamb is good, but they don’t quite give you what you wanted.” (21:02)
• Heath & Jamie: Skeptical, especially of Dak Prescott underachieving where drafted.

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Trey McBride is Not a Top 2 Tight End

[25:01-30:46]

• Heath: Attributes risk to reduced team pass attempts and the rise of WRs like Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Jamie/Dave: Unlikely to drop far, but acknowledge a fall from last year’s high volume is logical.
  • Dave: “There’s a strong track record of Jacoby Brissett favoring his tight ends… McBride…I'm comfortable with him as the top tight end.” (29:43)
  • Jamie: Adds concern about target quality and “can he do more with the ball?”

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Kyler Murray Returns as a Fantasy QB1

[31:15-33:54]

• Jamie: “Wouldn’t be surprised if Kyler Murray is a top 10 quarterback.” Points to a strong supporting cast in Minnesota and proven rushing upside. “He’s one of the best late round values.” (33:17)
• Heath: Pushes him to be bolder, suggesting top 8 would be more impressive.
• Adam: “What would surprise you more: Top 5 or not top 20?” (33:27)

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Parker Washington Emerges as a Top 20 WR

[33:54-40:33]

• Dave: Enthusiastic about Washington’s role and upside in the Jags’ passing attack. “He’s got what we look for from wide receivers: layups and long balls.” (34:22)
• Jamie & Adam: More skeptical due to Jacksonville’s crowded WR room.
• Adam: Compares his stretch run excitement to previous flashes like Josh Downs.
• Stat Highlight: “In games with 70%+ snap share: 7+ targets in 8 of 10. On pace for 134 targets per 17, but what about the prior two years?” —Heath (39:39)

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Quinshon Judkins Leads NFL in Carries

[41:34-43:11]

• Heath: “Assuming he’s healthy…he could lead the NFL in rush attempts...like Nick Chubb or Derrick Henry in previous run-heavy schemes.” (41:34)
• Volume hinges on Cleveland’s defense and play script, but the path is clear if Judkins remains the bellcow.

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Josh Downs Will Be a Better Fantasy WR Than Alec Pierce

[43:11-50:28]

• Jamie: “He’s going to catch more passes” (44:47); especially with Michael Pittman gone, slot role expands.
• Dave: Backs it up with stats—“7.6 targets per game easily led the Colts in [2024]” (45:47)
• Heath: Slot rate vs. two-WR sets is a concern for elite upside but expects solid consistency; “You don’t see big fantasy seasons from 70%+ slot guys.” (50:06)

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Jalen Waddle—Top 12 PPR WR in Denver

[50:29-52:25]

• Dave: “When he’s on the field and he’s right, I would expect him to be at least a low end number two…if not potentially a top 12 guy. So I wouldn’t be surprised…” (50:43)
• Heath & Jamie: Doubtful, as Denver has spread targets and injury risk lingers.

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A.J. Brown’s Worst Season Since Leaving Tennessee

[52:25-57:25]

• Heath: “I wouldn’t be surprised if A.J. Brown has his worst season in five years.” (53:11)
• Jamie: “I don’t expect the Patriots to turn into a pass heavy offense… is A.J. Brown at 29 years old starting to slow down at all?” (54:29)
• Adam: Counters with New England’s improved QB situation.
• Dave: “It wouldn’t be because of the offense… having Drake May throwing to you… Brown would be the top target.” (56:01)

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Omarion Hampton Outscores Devon Achane

[57:25-60:13]

• Jamie: McDaniel’s move to the Chargers = a big vote of confidence in Hampton. “Wouldn’t be surprised if [he] has a better season than Achane.” (57:37)
• Group: Acknowledge Hampton as a potential RB2 floor, RB1 upside if health and usage align.

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• On League Drama:

  • Dave: “Let’s get to what happened in this Dynasty league and spend 50 minutes on it and also get some fan reaction from it. And that’s all we’re talking about.” (4:10)
  • Jamie, on “reverse” trades: “You can’t do ‘I’ll trade you back later.’ That is not legal.” (8:40)
  • Adam: “Dan is a real life Seinfeld character…George Costanza!” (9:11)

• On Tight End Value Drops:

  • Heath: “With Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison together, that could cut into Trey McBride’s 26% target share from last year, which was absolutely insane.” (25:01)

• On Coaching Impact:

  • Jamie: “Mike McDaniel’s influence is pretty big on [Chargers RBs]…he was the running backs coach in San Francisco before taking the job in Miami. So I…love the upside for Hampton.” (57:37)

• Player Debate & Roster Construction:

  • Adam: “You almost don’t want Downs playing outside, but if he’s a 75% slot guy, he’s probably not playing enough to really hit… in fantasy.” (48:50)
  • Jamie: “If he takes 2-3 points per game step back and there are a handful of guys better, then it was a bust.” (28:50 — on McBride)

• Classic Banter:

  • Heath: “If there’s a word I would use for Dan, it’s scatterbrained…” (63:03)
  • Adam: “You punished me twice…you had to drop someone. You didn’t do it, and I dropped someone for you and I’m trying to prevent that.” (62:21)

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Recurring Themes

• Enforcement of League Rules: The Dynasty league drama underscores the importance of consistent rule application and communication from commissioners. The crew firmly upholds the virtue of league integrity, establishing a "no favoritism, no collusion" precedent.
• Contextual Player Projections: Every bold call is grounded in ADP value, team changes, offensive trends, and player skillsets, acknowledging risk and upside rather than just hype.
• Fantasy Realism: The analysts temper expectations by openly weighing the pros and cons of each prediction—no wild hot takes without realistic scenarios.
• Playful but Insightful Banter: The show’s tone is fun, spirited, and self-aware, with numerous callbacks to classic TV and pop culture references.

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Episode Takeaways

• Commissioners: Proactively communicate, enforce, and clarify rules; history matters—repeat offenders can trigger precedent-setting issues.
• Roster Construction: Watch for opportunities among crowded WR corps and understand the pitfalls of promising but low-volume roles.
• 2026 Season Bold Calls:
  • Expect some let-downs from high-profile Cowboys.
  • Don’t bank on Trey McBride repeating last season’s monster stats.
  • Kyler Murray, Omarion Hampton, and Quinchon Judkins are late-to-mid round potential league-winners with the right circumstances.
  • Parker Washington and Josh Downs could surprise as WR2 types, depending on opportunity.
  • Temper expectations in crowded/new WR situations (A.J. Brown, Jalen Waddle) and watch the shifting RB landscapes.

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Episode Highlights

• [11:31] Jamie on trade-back “loophole”: “Making a trade with the agreement that you will reverse it in the future is not okay. Like, that’s not debatable, right?”
• [29:43] Dave on Trey McBride: “There is a strong track record of Jacoby Brissett favoring his tight ends. It goes back for years, and I don’t think that’s going away.”
• [34:22] Dave on Parker Washington: “He’s got what we look for from wide receivers: layups and long balls.”
• [41:34] Heath on Judkins: “He can be one of those guys that challenges to be an RB1 without a large role in the passing game.”
• [56:01] Dave on A.J. Brown: “Moderately surprised, but...having Drake May throwing to you and that team could end up throwing a lot more.”
• [63:03] Heath on Dan: “If there’s a word I would use for Dan, it’s scatterbrained.”

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Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a must-listen for fantasy managers seeking both preseason clarity and a behind-the-scenes look at real league disputes. The show’s bold predictions challenge groupthink and inspire deeper strategic thinking, while also providing a valuable clinic in league management and etiquette. Don’t miss Wednesday’s follow-up—Dan’s live defense is sure to be can’t-miss podcasting.

Transcript

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[Jamie]

Yeah, I take. And listen, this can be debated, and you guys can tell me that I'm wrong, but this is an instance that it's a commissioner's nightmare when you have someone in the league who says, I don't get communications from the league website, and I don't check the league website, and it's not my fault that I missed those messages or don't know this rule, and. And how can you guys fix this for me? And then attacks the league, the commissioner, the website, just refusing to take responsibility for their own actions until this morning when they did.

[Heath]

Yeah. And that person is Dan, obviously. Welcome to this show. It's Monday, May 18, and today we are going to. We're going to. I don't know if we should do the whole thing, maybe tease it.

[Adam]

No, no, no. We got one side today, and we get the other side on Wednesday.

[Heath]

I know, but. I know, but, like, I want to get to the, you know, the crux of the show, which is.

[Adam]

This is the crux of the show.

[Dave]

I wouldn't forget about whatever you have.

[Jamie]

I wouldn't be surprised if Dan's kicked out of the Dynasty League.

[Heath]

All right, we're going to give you nine scenarios that wouldn't surprise us in 2026. But I do think, like, Dave, you have no idea what's going on. You're not in this Dynasty League. So what are you doing as an. You're basically an audience member right now. What are you. What's going through your mind?

[Dave]

I don't care about what we wouldn't be surprised by. Let's get to what happened in this Dynasty league and spend 50 minutes on it and also get some fan reaction from it. And that's all we're talking about.

[Heath]

Oh, yeah, everybody.

[Dave]

No, no real fantasy advice today. Just airing grievances.

[Jamie]

I. I fully expect Dave to like the. The stone cold music to play, the glass to shatter, and Dan to show up on. On the podcast today to. To defend himself.

[Heath]

I wish I tried. He's at. He's a dentist appointment. So Dan will not be on today. He'll probably be on Wednesday. All right, I'll let Heath kind of lay it all out for you. But I'm going to give us to the eight. We have five minutes to do this. Okay, five minutes. Go.

[Jamie]

I. I think five minutes for my laying it out and then five minutes of discussion would probably work. So you guys are in the league. You can tell me if this is on. Dave's been in one of my leagues before, so he knows exactly what's happened here. Before our rookie drafts, I send out messages saying, you must clear enough roster spots to make your rookie picks. If you have a roster problem during the draft, you cannot fix that roster problem except via trade. So you're not going to be able to make add drops to your roster during the draft. So if you want to make five picks, have five open roster spots,

[Heath]

everyone

[Jamie]

in the league did that except for Dan.

[Heath]

Well, what about, what about the other guy that he's been trading with?

[Jamie]

Well, Mayan, I was under the impression because I kind of went through and checked and some people had one roster spot left. They just wanted to make one pick. I assumed some people had three, some people had four. Maybe there was somebody else, but this person had enough roster spots to make three picks, whereas Dan had enough roster spots to make one pick.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Jamie]

Dan figured this out in late in round two, when it was time for him to make his pick, and started texting me with, I don't know how much I should go into personal text messages, so I won't give too many details. But very unhappy with the fact that he had not realized that he did not cut enough players to make his picks.

[Dave]

I need to know how unhappy, bro.

[Heath]

He's not saying, like, Keith needs to

[Dave]

make a dramatic reading.

[Jamie]

I. I won't make a dramatic reading, but I'm. I'm going. I'm going to take my ball and go home.

[Heath]

That.

[Jamie]

That unhappy.

[Dave]

Okay. Okay.

[Jamie]

And which immediately put me into a very angry state because this was not the fault of anything other than Dan not paying attention.

[Heath]

Dan. Right. So he doesn't get for. I don't know why. I, I talked to him about this via text. Like, he doesn't get the emails from cbs. You gotta fix that. Yeah, you gotta fix that. It's been going on for a long time. Like, let's fix.

[Jamie]

Well, it's been going on for so long that in the Yodo YOLO Dynasty league that you guys are all in,

[Dave]

Adam's not.

[Jamie]

Dan did this two years ago and was very upset about it and had to make multiple draft picks trades to fix it. And not just that, but within the last two months, Dan was on a podcast complaining about that very time when that happened. So it's not like he did it two years ago and forgot. He remembered recently that he had. This was the way this worked. He had to cut enough players to make enough draft picks. He did not do that. So he solved it in round two by making a trade back. Somebody took one of his players. Perfectly legitimate. You got to round three, which, again, we're at pick 32. 33 in a 20, 26 rookie class. No one should care this much about this pick.

[Adam]

The line you said to me yesterday was the best line.

[Jamie]

What was it? What? Oh, yes. If I had tried to trade Dan pick 33 for anything, he would have told me how terrible this draft class is and how much this pick doesn't matter. And 100 or more. He would have said nothing because he wouldn't have seen that trade offer because he doesn't check in on a league website. But he finds a resolution with one of the league members trying to help him out. He trades three players to this guy for one player, which creates a roster spot for him. Great. With the understanding that after he makes the pick, they will trade the players back so the other guy can make his pick.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

You can't do. I'll trade you back later. Yeah. That is not legal.

[Heath]

And it got brought up in the message board and then.

[Jamie]

Not by me. Other people.

[Heath]

Right. The message board went crazy. I mean, it got really heated. I honestly think this is the most heated it may have ever gotten in any of the leagues I'm in.

[Dave]

Adam, look at.

[Adam]

Look at Johnny's post.

[Heath]

What? You need to set a certified letter

[Adam]

to the next one.

[Heath]

Oh, Dana's a real life Seinfeld character at this point. And that's what I said to him. I said to Dan, I was like, you know who this would happen to. George Costanza. He doesn't want to accept the fact that he is George Costanza, but he is.

[Jamie]

So that's where we stand. I finally paused the draft. The trade has been reversed. Dan's pick has been reversed. And it seems that the league sentiment is. Dan's complained enough. Let's let him make his picks. But there's not really a way to do that without him making a trade that is allowable and legal.

[Heath]

All right, well, he's so mad. He is so mad. Like, he's like, I'm gonna auction off my. My team. And by the way, I went to the finals last year. This is a really good team that a lot of people would watch to.

[Jamie]

To his credit, because I've Said some things that weren't very nice. He did accept responsibility this morning, acknowledged that he needs to do a better job. I think he even said sorry and then sent three more ranting replies to other people in the chat that he was met at. But at one point, there was a little bit of contrition and acknowledgment. This was entirely, 100% his fault.

[Adam]

So he. You'll appreciate. I sent him, Adam, a text message. Little trolling. I'm like, dan, are you okay? You seem a little upset.

[Heath]

Dan wanted me to convey his side of the story since he can't be on.

[Jamie]

Okay.

[Heath]

And I'm going through our texts, and I don't really know what I'm supposed to read here because there's a lot of. But he just.

[Dave]

He.

[Heath]

And this is kind of like, I agree with him. I don't like your rule personally. He's like, right, I don't think you should have to drop players in May, but that's your right as the commissioner. I personally would have expanded the rosters so that you keep everyone and then make your drops later. And Dan. I think Dan's point. I feel bad because I don't want to put words in his mouth, but I think Dan's point is, like, it's

[Adam]

doing that for him right now.

[Heath]

It's a stupid rule, and we found a way to circumvent it. And I don't. And why would you stand in our way of. Of our. Of our method of circumventing the rule? And he's like, yeah, well, like, everyone

[Jamie]

understands why making a trade with the agreement that you will reverse it in the future is not okay. Like, that's not debatable. Right?

[Dave]

Correct.

[Heath]

Yeah. Yeah, absolutely.

[Jamie]

So that's. Yeah.

[Dave]

I think if you. If you agree to change it back halfway through the season, you shouldn't have that big of a problem with it. That big. Maybe you still have a problem with it, but you can't. Yeah. So that way, the play. The teams have players for part of the year.

[Jamie]

What if I did it during the season?

[Dave]

No, like, I think if you make a trade and it. And it. And you. You. I don't know if reverse is the way to say it, but you make a trade back weeks later. Not. Not in the same, you know, short period of time. Like, what Dan's doing. What Dan's doing is not right. Forget it. That's it.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

If you're saying you're okay with players, with managers trading the same players back and forth to help each other at some point during the season, if it's

[Dave]

for multiple weeks, I don't know if I have a big problem with it. That's what I said.

[Heath]

I think you could make. I, I think this. There should be a rule that you managers cannot trade players back to the same team, right? Like if I'm in three, four weeks, what you want to say?

[Dave]

Or maybe that's fine. Like, there was a week where I didn't have a tight end and I made a trade and I thought, okay, well, I can just trade back with this manager later. And when I tried to trade back with the manager later, the manager said, no, I'm. I'm keeping the guy you gave me for a tight end to use this week. And I was sol. But I didn't try it. But I didn't try to say, okay, just give me my guy back a week later.

[Heath]

Let me get back to. Let me get back to why this is Heath's fault, though.

[Dave]

Fine.

[Heath]

Of course, because it is a bad rule making people make drops in May. You just let them just expand. But also, here's what I think you should have done. You know Dan, right? Like, obviously Dan was going to mess this up, right? So you should have reached out to him. You should have gone through the transactions and looked at the teams that didn't follow your advice, that didn't like, not follow your advice, follow your rules. Because you posted this on like a Tuesday and the draft was Friday. So you should have reached out to the individual manager and said, hey, you haven't made any drops yet. You should do that before the draft. That's what a nice commissioner would do. That's what I would have done.

[Adam]

Okay. Before. Before you answer. He, he told me this yesterday and I said, Heath has teenagers up as children. You and I are still in the. Let's tell our kids 15 times and then if they don't do it, we'll still tell them the 16th time to do it. That's the difference, I think, between going through mature children to have their hands held. Heath is past the heat, the hand holding stage. It's. Here's what the rule is, but it's follow the rule or don't, but it's

[Heath]

going to be your pen if Dan's

[Dave]

in approximately how many years has Dan been in a league that Heath has been the commissioner of? This isn't his first year. This, no, no, this isn't his first

[Jamie]

year violating like missing this rule.

[Heath]

But that you should. Commissioner, you should have been prepared for that.

[Dave]

He was.

[Jamie]

And I don't have any. Like, he, he seems to think that the greatest travesty here is being penalized a third round rookie pick. And I just don't see any problem with that.

[Dave]

I don't either.

[Jamie]

You didn't pay attention. You did. And this is a stupid rule is not a valid argument for. I got caught breaking this rule.

[Heath]

Well, Dan, I think you're out of luck here. I tried. I really tried. I think it's on you, man.

[Jamie]

The last, the last thing I'll say is for dynasty managers. I think this part actually, like, what you're upset with me about. I kind of makes. I. I know where you're coming from, except that there's really like two things each year where the commissioner actually has the ability to make somebody do something. It's right before the draft and it's when they're scoring fantasy points. And the rest of the time, the rest of the year, you get caught in situations where you have to make empty threats to your friends that if they don't drop a player, you're gonna have to go drop someone for them. And then you find yourself actually having to do that and looking like a bad commissioner because you're removing players from teams. And if you do it before the draft, they actually have to do it.

[Heath]

Okay, fair enough.

[Dave]

And by the way, like, and this is a pointer for all the other commissioners out there, let's say Heath, let Dan retroactively drop players or let that trade go through. Like that just opens the door to more BS from other managers down the line. And then they'll point back to what Heath did, letting Dan get away with it, and say, well, you let Dan do it. Why can't I do it?

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dave]

So I applaud you, Heath. And I don't have a problem with dropping players for the draft. It's what makes the leagues even more competitive.

[Heath]

Yeah. So I think the highlight will be when Dan comes on and tries to defend this on Wednesday. So everybody be. Be ready for that. We're going to take a break. We'll give you our thoughts on Aaron

[Adam]

Rodgers back with his adjourned until Wednesday.

[Heath]

Court is adjourned until Wednesday. Fantasy cops have settled it for now anyway. We'll be right back. We'll tell you about our thoughts on Aaron Rodgers, an update on Bucky Irving. And I wouldn't be surprised if after this,

[Dave]

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[Jamie]

You thought this was your run club era. Turns out it was more of a thinking about run club era.

[Adam]

The good news? Someone's marathon training is about to start.

[Jamie]

Sell your workout gear on depop.

[Adam]

Just snap a few photos and we'll take care of the rest. They get their race day fit and

[Jamie]

you get a payout for trying. Someone on Depop wants what you've got. Start selling now. Depop where Taste Recognizes taste

[Heath]

Dan is a menace to society. That's from the chat.

[Jamie]

You know it would be the best on Wednesdays if we could just like clip the, I don't know, 10 the top 10 comments in the chat from today in response to Dan and just read those to him before he gives his side. Just to get him good and amped. Get him good and amped up before. Before he gives his side.

[Heath]

He's really mad. He's really mad. All right, News and notes.

[Dave]

Aaron Rodgers should be mad at himself.

[Heath]

He's signing a one year deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers. You know it's pretty interesting. You look at his stats page. He's had basically like the same season three years in a row with three different teams. Obviously not counting the torn Achilles season. His last year in Green Bay is one year with the Jets. It's one year with Pittsburgh. Hasn't really been that good. It hasn't been terrible though. And a running back has had more than 70 targets in two straight seasons with Aaron Rodgers. That's Cool Breeze Hall.

[Adam]

You know how many seasons and I don't. I didn't include the far viewers but Mike McCarthy from Aaron Rodgers through Dak Prescott, how many 20 point fantasy seasons has he coached a quarterback to?

[Dave]

Oh, a ton.

[Jamie]

Oh, I'm gonna out of how many total seasons?

[Adam]

So it was 2008 through 2024 with a break. One year break.

[Jamie]

So 16.

[Adam]

It was 13 seasons with Rogers and five seasons with that.

[Jamie]

Okay, so 18, 12.

[Dave]

Yeah, I would say it's somewhere in the neighborhood of 12.

[Jamie]

I'll go 13.

[Adam]

17 of 18 seasons. It was the last year with Dak Prescott where he average points per game. So there was the year where Dak played four games. Yeah. You know, averaged over 20 fantasy points per game. So take out the backup quarterbacks there. But the Rogers Dak combo, 17 of 18 seasons, the quarterback's been over 20 fish points.

[Dave]

We're thinking it's going to be 17 of 19.

[Heath]

Yeah. All good things.

[Dave]

Right.

[Heath]

Must come to an end. All right. Bucky Irving will be limited in OTAs, but should be ready for training camp. He's got a offseason shoulder surgery that he's Recovering from. Ryan McFadden of ESPN thinks that Raiders running back Mike Washington Jr. Is in prime position to become the number two running back for Las Vegas. And Patriots wide receiver Case on. Booty has not been at the team's facility during the voluntary OTAs, according to ESPN. And booty might be a guy who gets traded. We do have an A.J. brown. I wouldn't be surprised if coming. That might be the last one. We do. It's second to last one. All right, so let's get into it. And you just heard that stat about Dak Prescott under Mike McCarthy. Well, we're going to talk about the Dallas Cowboys. Dave says I wouldn't be surprised if every Dallas player underwhelmed. Ooh, gasp.

[Dave]

Think about where we're drafting CD Lam. Borderline first round pick George Pickens, a second round pick. Dak obviously can meet expectations without being as good as he was last year. Javante. Pretty much the same thing. But I've talked about it before. I think this Cowboys defense is going to be a lot better this year than it was last year. And if that defense is better, that means that the offense might not have to throw as much. They were 61% pass before they acquired Quinn and Williams. That dropped to 56% after that. I. I could see this team playing at a little bit of a slower pace, being a little bit more balanced. And as far as Lamb and Pickens go specifically, we saw it last year when they were on the field together. They were both averaging right around 14 PPR points per game. Pickens a little bit higher. Pickens was pretty close to 15 PPR points per game when we played. Who had more. You guys learned Pickens had more yardage than Lamb last year when they were both on the field together. I just, I feel like that maybe we're overrating them just a little bit and so I wouldn't be surprised if they underwhelm when the season's over this year and assuming everybody stays healthy. Pickens is good, Lamb is good, but they don't quite give you what you wanted when you drafted them.

[Heath]

I just. Sorry one real quick, I'll let the guys jump in. Just to clarify, Pickens had more yards than Lamb when they were on the field together. That was specifically week seven through 17, which I think are the ones that really matter. But if you did that when I agree 1 and 2, remember Pickens really wasn't that involved the first couple of weeks. I think if you throw in weeks one and two, I do think Lamb had more yards than Pickens. But yes, Pickens did outgain him in week seven through 17. This is interesting. Take Heath, your your thoughts on this because the Cowboys the last two years have been 31st and 32nd in defense. There are some years where, where they had a good defense and Dak Prescott still had a massive season, but the last two years have been they've been one of the worst defenses, if not the worst in football. Your, your thoughts?

[Jamie]

Barring injury, I have a really hard time seeing Dak underperform. I could see Lamb and Pickens cannibalizing each other and both finishing his high end wide receiver twos maybe. But I, I think the, the one that's harder for me, especially because of where he's being drafted. The one that's harder for me is Deck.

[Dave]

I get it. Does it, does it, does it stick in your crawl a little bit that Dak average 22 fantasy points per game and six point last year.

[Jamie]

22.

[Dave]

That's what I've got.

[Jamie]

I think that'd be pretty good where

[Dave]

he's being dressed actually 23.3. If you take out week 18, that's even better obviously. So yeah, for where he's getting drafted, I don't think anybody would have a problem with that.

[Heath]

What does this mean for Javante, Jamie, if the Cowboys defense gets better?

[Adam]

I, I think he's kind of in the same boat as Dak. Like you know, you look at where they're getting drafted like Javante is going to be a fourth round pick most likely based on his ad. And so when you're talking about him in the teens at running back, in some cases he may slip into the early 20s depending on how people view some of the, you know, second year guys scatter Boo Judkins, you know, maybe just Darian Price gets ahead of him. I don't think that'll happen, but you never know. But in any case, I think just where Javante's going, given his expected role, like the backups there right now are not exactly the most exciting players. You know, it's not like we're talking about a Blake Corum threat, a Kyle Menangai threat. You know, Malik Davis is most likely going to be the number two running back there, and I don't think he's taking Javonte off the field very much. So, you know, if Dave's theory is right and they throw the ball less well, they're going to run the ball more.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Adam]

And we saw what that was like early in the season from a touchdown perspective for, for Devonte. Now, the receptions are, are, you know, not great for him to begin with at least, especially what he does with the ball in his hands after he catches it. But I think when you're looking at Javante, you're looking at volume, and that should stay the same. If the offense stays the same, it should get better. If the offense, you know, the passing game potentially takes a step back.

[Heath]

All right. I wouldn't be surprised if every Dallas player underwhelmed. That's number one. That's from Dave. Number two. I wouldn't be surprised. This one is from heath. If Trey McBride is not a top

[Jamie]

two tight end, and I think nobody's surprised that. I wouldn't be surprised by that. There's lots of sides to this one. The first one is the fact that the Cardinals led the NFL with 649 pass attempts last year. I am not confident they're going to come really anywhere close. I think you could see a drop in 50 pass attempts. In fact, that's probably what I project. The second one is that we didn't really, with J. Brissette, see both Michael Wilson and Marvin Harrison together very often. I think when we do that could cut into Trey McBride's 26% target share from last year, which was absolutely insane. And then the third one is, I think there's a lot of tight ends. Colston Loveland, Sam LaPorta for me, Tucker Kraft for some people who could get into that 14ish point per game range this year, which is about where I expect McBride to regress to.

[Heath]

Okay, he was at. He was at 15.2 points per game in 2024. But yeah, it's, it's a. It's all about, I don't know, Heath I feel like it's all about Michael Wilson. You know, I know you just brought him up. I think that's, to me, the, the biggest factor that stands out because if he has a role, it's going to really be different for this offense.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think the biggest factor to me is the total number of past attempts. But that, that is right up there with that. And then I didn't say his name because we talk about him all the time. But Drew Petzing, how much does his departure change their target share? Because he. I found this the other day. You know, he and Kevin Stefanski worked together for nine straight years before he left to go to Arizona. In the last three years when he was in Arizona, he and Stefanski Both had a 27 tight end target share, which, like, nobody else does. Well, Andy Reid does. But yeah, I just think you could see if it's 23% and it's 600 pass attempts. That's, that's a pretty big drop off.

[Heath]

Okay, so that's Trey McBride. Would anybody be shocked by the way just two years ago he was tight in three per game, but just barely. He was behind Bowers and Kittle. But would anybody be shocked if, you know, if he weren't like a top, you know, I'll say he's not a top three tight end because sometimes there's a big difference between two and three. The way they're being drafted right now is probably a big difference in perception between two and three. Jamie, how surprised would you be if McBride were not a top three tight end?

[Adam]

Fairly surprised. I mean, you know that even, even the, the, the picture that Keith is painting and didn't even mention that their run game should significantly improve with the additions of Jeremiah Love and Tyler Algier and even a healthy James Connor. I mean, you know, they were just a disaster last season, so factor that in as well. I think he's just too talented. Like, you know, he, he's got enough, I think, of an opportunity to lead this team in targets. And we're talking about, can Michael Wilson do what he did in that stretch last year? Can Marvin Harrison Jr. Ever get to the level that he was drafted at? And those are still big ifs, you know, I mean, Wilson, even last season when everybody was healthy, he was not getting those opportunities. And Harrison, you know, until Jacoby Brissette really took over and we saw some glimpses of it, you know, we still have to see it for a full season. So I still think McBride is, is too talented, too good, too much of a factor. In this offense to completely disappear or at least take a significant step back that he's not going to be in that range. But look, if you're drafting him first and he finished his fifth, it's a disappointment. We drafted him first and he finished his third and we're talking about, you know, a point or two behind the top two guys because the other two guys or three guys, you know, as he alluded to with, you know, for him it's laporter. For a lot of people it's Tyler Warren. You know, if those other guys that are getting drafted after the top two guys are all competing for the top spot, then I think you win. But still taking McBride. But if he takes a, you know, two or three point per game step back and there are a handful of guys that are better than him, then it was a bus.

[Heath]

All right, David, quick thought on this and we'll move on.

[Dave]

I think McBride's going to remain their top target getter. I think he's too good. I think the new coaching staff is going to be world's better at scheming up their players than the previous coaching staff. Here's something to remember with Michael Wilson when he was on the field with Brissette and Marvin last year it was 5.7 targets per game. He was kind of the odd man out. McBride was not. Marvin Harrison Jr. Wasn't catching a ton of targets. It was McBride. There is a star. There is a strong track record of Jacoby Brissette favoring his tight ends. It goes back for years and I don't think that that's going away. I think McBride is such a weapon in the red zone, out of the red zone that he's still going to get a lot of volume. I am comfortable in full PPR with him as the top tight end. I would be surprised if he didn't finish the year as a top three tight end and full ppr.

[Adam]

I think, I think just one thing to keep in mind here is what do they do if Brissette is not their quarterback meaning injury or they want to go a different direction? Is it Gardner to keep another veteran in there and keep everybody happy or is it Carson Beck and they start to see if maybe he's their quarterback of the future. That terrifies me for the entire offense. Both scenarios in different ways. But obviously it's a little bit more tough to trust these guys as high end fantasy options mostly Mary Bride if it's Carson back.

[Jamie]

And I also say like the things Dave said, I, I agree with like they're going to throw the ball a lot to Trey McBride, but he had 169 targets last year. Like you could, he could. It's kind of like the, the Lions discussion last year. They're going to still be a top five offense. They're probably not going to be near as good as they were. So I, I think he, you, he could easily lose two or three targets a game and still be one of the top two or three targets, tight ends and targets. The question will be, does he get any better at turning targets into yards? Because he's never been close to elite at that.

[Dave]

That's true. 9.9 targets per game last year, 9.2 the year before that, and then he had a stretch his last 10 games of 2023, 8.5 targets per game. So it's been steady. Yeah, I, I, I would agree with you too, Heath. I don't think he gets anywhere close to 10 targets or even 9 targets per game this year unless things go really wrong in Arizona. And that would include Jeremiah Love not being a factor at all. And I don't think any of us would be, I think all of us would be surprised if Love was not a factor at all.

[Heath]

Now, if you missed our Wednesday or, sorry, our Friday show, we talked about the schedule. This show was on CBS Sports Network. They do have. Cardinals have one of the hardest schedules in the NFL based on last year's opponent win percentage. So they could be really bad again. They could be throwing the ball all the time. Let's move on to a former Cardinal. Here is now a Minnesota Viking, Kyler Murray. Jamie says, I wouldn't be surprised if Kyler Murray is a top, top 10 quarterback.

[Adam]

So you have the receiving core that just got better last week with the addition of Juwan Jennings. Obviously Justin Jefferson's still one of the best in the league. Jordan Addison is a very good complimentary guy. Maybe on paper, the best trio wide receivers in the NFL, T.J. hawkins is still going to be a factor. We know that when Kyler's right, he runs. He averages just about 36 yards per game in his career running the ball Last year, For example, number one in that category was Justin Fields at 42 yards per game. So he's probably going to be among the league leaders in rushing yards per game or rushing yards, excuse me, at the quarterback spot. And then you have Kevin o', Connell, who, you know, arguably the best coach that he's ever worked with, at least, you know, based on what we've seen. So it's a great opportunity Great system. He's going to prove it season I, I hope he wins the job over J.J. mcCarthy. There's still that wrinkle. But look, he's going to be a guy that I think anybody that is inclined to take two quarterbacks should be targeting. If you miss on the position because people already took two quarterbacks ahead of you. Like this is the perfect fallback option to pair with another, you know, maybe safer veteran. Like you can go Kyler Murray and Jared Goff, for example. I think that's a great pairing to, you know, have a little bit of a floor with a higher ceiling type of player. But Kyler, when he's been at his best, has been in the conversation to be a top five quarterback. I don't know if I'll get back to that level. So that was kind of, you know, am I taking sort of the easy way out by saying top 10? And so you can definitely say that that's the case, but I can certainly see him being in the conversation if things go really, really well to be a top five quarterback, it's, he's got that, just that type of upside. If he's running the ball and taking advantage of these weapons, I don't expect that to happen. So I'll again take the cop out and say top 10. But I think he's one of the best late round values that you find. His ADP right now is just absolutely fantastic.

[Heath]

Yeah, it's a, it's a little weak, I think. I think I, I think he should have had to go a little higher than 10. Not necessarily to five, but maybe give it, give me top eight.

[Adam]

Yeah, I mean it's just like a weird number to say.

[Heath]

It is a weird number. What would surprise you more? Kyler Murray is a top five quarterback. Kyler Murray is not a top 20 quarterback.

[Adam]

Not a top 20 top five quarterback.

[Jamie]

I guess I would say top five quarterback. If you told me that he's playing the full season. I might say not a top 20 quarterback. But there's the risk that things don't go well for Minnesota and JJ McCarthy starts a bunch of games.

[Heath]

All right, another great late round quarterback option, Kyler Murray. Let's talk about Parker Washington. I was going to take a break, but you know what, let's do to Parker Washington first. All right. Parker Washington, 24 years old. He was a sixth round pick and boy did he crush it his last four games. 19 or more PPR fantasy points in all four, including the postseason. Dave says he wouldn't be surprised if Parker Washington turned into a top 20 wide receiver.

[Dave]

You just talked about that huge finish down the stretch. I think he builds off of that. In Jacksonville he. He surprised me with the A dot and then when I watched the film to back it up, he, he's. He can man, he can boogie down the field. He's got speed and they also give him a lot of layups on top of it. So Adam, he's got what we look for from wide receivers, layups and long balls. He's not just a short area target. He had a number of deep targets. He was running routes that I would expect a Brian Thomas Jr. To run. Look at the post for a touchdown against Tennessee, a lot of other in breaking routes and I still think there's room for improvement there because there were a number of targets where he and Trevor just were not on the same page. There was a little bit of off target throwing from Trevor or maybe Parker wasn't in the right place at the right time. You might remember the interception against Buffalo in the playoffs where that happened. Furthermore, the run game is a question mark. We don't know how good they'll be. ETN isn't there anymore. Brian Thomas Jr. Is a question mark. We'll see what the reports are in training camp in August and the defense might not be quite as good as it was last year. So I think that just could lead to more volume opportunity for Parker Washington. I've changed my rankings in ppr. He's my favorite Jaguars wide receiver to target. Wow.

[Heath]

Okay Heath, your reaction to that. Dave would not be surprised if Parker Washington were a top 20 wide receiver.

[Jamie]

I would not be surprised if a Jacksonville wide receiver is a top 20 wide receiver. Do I have to pick one? No, I just. I think I would still be surprised if Parker Washington is the best wide receiver on this team over a full season. Maybe that's leaning too much into who he was for most of his life before the last four games of last year. But it was just four games and I think Jacoby Myers is going to get seven or eight targets a game and I still have a lot of hope for Brian Thomas Jr. And Brendan Strange is still going to siphon off five or six targets a game. And I think Travis Hunter is still going to play maybe 30 of the offensive snaps. And so I just don't. I. I think Parker Washington's probably a part time player who's a good boom bust wide receiver. 3.

[Dave]

When would you take him? Is there a draft round that you've got in mind?

[Jamie]

Not before round seven.

[Dave]

I'm on the same page as you, man. Round seven.

[Heath]

Is there a team that you can think of recently that we were like,

[Dave]

man,

[Heath]

there's just too many mouths to feed, you know, does that play out that way or does the cream usually rise?

[Jamie]

Who, who's the cream?

[Heath]

Yeah, I don't know, but. Because I, I could sit here and make a case. Go, man. I really like the Jaguars offense, but I'm not going to draft any of them. And it's really because Travis Hunter. If Travis Hunter is really going to be a factor here, then I think it's going to be bad news.

[Jamie]

Were there too many mouths to feed for the Chargers last year? Yeah, I think you can make it.

[Adam]

You know what Park Washington reminds me of a little bit is, is Josh Downs, because he came off a strong finish in 2024, if I'm not mistaken, and 2025. We had a lot of expectations for him, moderately so I shouldn't say a lot of moderate expectations for him. But we get these type of play, like Jalen Coker, same thing. Like we get these guys that, that show small sample sizes of like sometimes just great production and it just doesn't materialize over the course season. I don't think this is a bad take by any stretch because he was so good last year. The thing that I fear is kind of the Travis Hunter factor because. And I think we get this with San Francisco too. Like they're getting so much BLEEP for the trade to get Travis Hunter and you're just hearing the same narrative this off season. Again, we're not giving up on the plan, we're not giving up on him playing offense. He's not going to be a full time corner. You know, Liam Cohen has said it, James Gladstone has said it. They've said it in very public places. So I just hope that it's not such a crowded receiving room with the tight end and running backs involved that we don't get the standout production from one of these guys. Because it would be great if we get at least one Jaguars wide receiver like he said. Which one is? I don't know. I don't know either. I still think the most upside favor is Brian Thomas because what we saw from him in 2024, I don't think anybody else on this team can do that being said, you'll get probably a great stretch of Parker Washington, probably a great stretch of Jacoby Myers. Probably a great stretch. I mean, you know, you brought this up time and time again, Adam. The game before Travis Hunter was Placed on IR when he got hurt in practice. Yeah, double digit targets. They were feeding him the ball and he looked great. And so how much of that becomes a factor again? So I could see Park Washington, I, I think what the guy said in terms of his draft value, like round eight is, is the spot you want to take a chance on him because that's when we get to that, you know, range of wide receivers where there's a lot of question marks. It would not shock me at all and I don't think I'm going to do this, but it wouldn't shock me at all. If Parker Washington is one of the guys that gets dropped in the first month of the season because he's just not getting those targets and opportunities like we're hoping for. And then everybody's racing to the waiver wire again because there's an injury or something happens. Like he could be one of those guys that just goes up and down in terms of production and even roster percentage. Just that's. And it could be for multiple guys on this team. You know, we saw it last year. Thomas was benchable for the majority of the season. You know, Jacoby Myers didn't exactly take off and was a consistent fantasy starter when he got to Jacksonville. So it's just, it's a great thing to have if you're, you know, Liam Cohen and the Jaguars offensive staff. It's a potential nightmare for fantasy managers because it could just be an absolute mess.

[Heath]

Fair enough. Well said. Last I'll give you an encouraging Parker Washington stat. 10 games, including they played one playoff game. Including that game, Parker Washington played 70% or more of the snaps 10 times. He had seven or more targets in eight of those 10 games. He was on pace for 134 targets, you know, in those 10 games. So that's per 17 games. So I think he didn't have a lot of games where he played a lot and didn't get targets. Right. Like usually when Parker Washington wasn't good last year, it's because he wasn't playing. That's encouraging. But the what's discouraging is the two

[Jamie]

years before that and he did have a few where he played a lot and got targets and didn't score fantasy points.

[Dave]

From week seven on, he averaged 14.4 PPR points per game. On seven targets per game, the PPR points was on target. It was on the same pace as CD Lamb on 1 fewer target per game.

[Heath]

Oh, nice. All right, we're going to take a break and come back with a Quinshon judge, guess who's talking about Quinshawn Judkins. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with a message for everyone paying big wireless way too much.

[Jamie]

Please, for the love of everything good

[Heath]

in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying. No judgments.

[Jamie]

But that's weird.

[Heath]

Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try. @mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for

[Dave]

3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra.

[Heath]

See full [e-mail] all right, we'll be right back with Quinte John Judkins after this. Heath, dare I say Quinte John Judkins is your 2026 version of DeAndre Swift, which you crushed. That was a great call by you last year. Just seems like this is your guy. You like to talk about him a lot, which is cool. Hopefully you have more luck than I did with Pacheco. But you would not be surprised if Quintean Judkins leads the NFL in rush attempts.

[Jamie]

Yes, and everything I say about Quinchon Judkins, I always have to put the asterisk. Assuming he's healthy. And I'm optimistic because he was at least there for some of the summer workout stuff and the reports have mostly been positive that he's going to be healthy. And I just, I think he could lead the NFL in rush attempts if they don't trade Miles Garrett. And this defense against arguably the easiest schedule in the NFL keeps them in games. I think Todd Monkin with his current quarterback situation will be very happy to hand the ball off to quin Sean Judkins 20 times a game. And he can be one of those guys that challenges to be an RB one without a large role in the passing game. We saw Nick Chubb do it in Cleveland in the past. We've seen Derek Hen do it over and over and over. I'm not saying he's going to reach their heights, but he could reach their volume.

[Heath]

And QUINTON Judkins played three games which he played less than 40% of the snaps. And I take those games away. And two of them. One was because it was his first game coming off like that, you know, weird situation to start the year. Two of them were injury related and if you take those games away, he was on pace for 314 carries, 18.5 per game as a rookie. Really impressive. So honestly, I'm just gonna let this one sit. I Don't think we need to really get into it too much. It makes a lot of sense and it's something you should really keep in mind with Quinn. John Judkins, great call. Jamie, you would not be surprised. You mentioned Josh Downs a little bit earlier. You would not be surprised if Josh Downs is better than Alec Pierce.

[Adam]

So Josh Downs, 2024, his best season so far of his career. Obviously very short career, but 13.1 PPR points per game last year. Alec Pierce, his best season so far, 12.2 PPR points per game. Al Pierce has never had over 100 targets in his career. Josh Downs in 14 games in 2024 had 107. So we know how Daniel Jones tends to operate. As you said, Adam number one in first read throws right.

[Heath]

I don't know. I don't know that. I feel like he. I felt like I saw that and I. He did that a lot. I don't know that for a fact that he was number.

[Adam]

He definitely does that a lot. I just was trying to remember what stat you gave. Yeah, yeah. But in any event, I think Downs and Tyler Warren are certainly going to benefit with the loss of Michael Pittman. Alec Pierce will as well. And look, they don't pay him to not make him a featured part of this offense and maybe the most featured part of the passing game. But again, you have a quarterback coming off a pretty significant injury that may want to get rid of the ball quick and the guys that are going to be most in front of him, open and available will probably be Tyler Warren and Josh Downs. So Downs is one of my favorite picks at this point. You know, you talk about those guys after round seven. He may be creeping into the first seven rounds. You know, he's just got that much upside and potential. So not that I'm not excited about Pierce. I think you could take a huge step forward but 84 targets for him last year, can he get to that 120 target range? I think if you can, you know, you do the numbers. 107 targets in 14 games. Josh Downs is on pace for over 120 that season. I think he's going to be in the conversation to be the most targeted player for the Colts. He's just an easy pick once you get to that mid round of wide receivers and again, one shot move. He's better than Pierce from a PPR standpoint. He's not going to score as many touchdowns, but I think he's going to catch more passes.

[Dave]

Correct me if I'm wrong, was he not the leader on the Colts and targets per game in 2024. I, I would guess so I'm double checking right now.

[Heath]

Who can remember 2024?

[Jamie]

It was a long time ago, four

[Heath]

years ago or something. I even know while you check that I can give well, I want you Heath why don't you give your reaction to this? Jamie not surprised if Josh Downs is better than Alec Pierce?

[Jamie]

I yeah, I don't think I would really be that surprised by it as well. I, I, Alec Pierce I think is one of the most difficult guys like we may have even talked about him being so difficult to rank just because they're going to try to turn him into as presumably try to turn him into something he's not been in the NFL yet. And it's true that Josh Downs adot and route depth has been much more similar to Michael Pittman's than Alec Pierce's has. And so I, I think it's fair to think that maybe more of those Pitman targets go two downs. I agree with Jamie. He's going to catch more passes. I think I have it projected that way. But the past couple years and Alec Pierce target's been worth a lot more than a Josh Downs target. So it's, he's probably gonna have to out target him by, by a significant amount to be better in fantasy or just score more touchdowns.

[Dave]

I think there's a real chance they could both be number three receivers in fantasy and just be guys that you'll, you'll start and hope for a boom week and then maybe they don't crush you that bad. Maybe they' Their average is right around 10 PPR points per game with it being a lot more up and down for Pierce than it is for downs. More consistent of the two. Yes. In 2024, 7.6 targets per game easily led the Colts in that category. He also had the most catches, the most catches per game, second in catch rate, second in receiving touchdowns, first in target per route run. This, this feels like a good call. I, I think in full PPR down should get an expanded role with Pittman out of there. I just, I, I worry about what he talked about, which is what's the value of a Josh Downs target if a zotot is going to be 6.9, which is what it was in 2024 that was 10th best on the Colts.

[Jamie]

I'm going through and updating my projections this week and just kind of taking a third or fourth look at things and one of the things that I just kind of recognize this morning, this Shane Steichen offense has averaged 335 wide receiver targets per year the last three years. Their number three wide receiver might be Nick Westbrook or number four might be Dion Burks. Like, we might just be too low on both Alec Pierce and Josh Downs.

[Heath]

The question I would have about Josh Downs is what's his slot rate going to be? Because let me give you a Josh Downs has played three years. I'll give you a player who has also played three years, but I'm going to look at the first two years of that player's career and the first three years of Josh Downs career. Player A averaged 10.8 yards per catch and 7.6 yards per target. Josh Downs average 10.8 yards per catch, exactly the same and 7.3 yards per target. They both were in the slot about 70% or more of the time. And their yards per route run, if you average them in the first two years for player A and the first three years for Josh down were about the same. I think probably Josh Downs is probably a little bit better in that if I had to guess, player A was Jackson Smith and Jigba, player B is Josh Downs. JSN's career. Whether he could have done that as a slot receiver last year, I don't. I doubt, but I don't know what he would have done. But he used to be a 70 slot guy. Last year it was like 20, which is really low. I don't, I don't know what. Josh Downs is 3 inches shorter and 25 pounds lighter based on what I saw online. So I don't know if that's accurate. But he's not jsn. But my point is I think they probably need to use him more on the outside if he's really going to reach his full potential. If he's a 75 slot guy, he's probably not playing enough is my guess to really like to really hit in fantasy. So that's something.

[Adam]

What the receiving core looks like.

[Heath]

No, I think he's so you almost. I don't.

[Jamie]

You were very close. I think it's what is his participation in two wide receiver sets?

[Heath]

Sure. Yeah.

[Jamie]

Like you can play. I hope he plays in the slot every time there's three wide receivers on the field. Yeah, but he needs to like we. If we have Nick Westbrook out there on a passing down and Josh Downs is not, then they should just burn the whole thing down.

[Dave]

How badly do you want. Well, it's not even fair to me to go look and see if Josh Downs played in Two wide receiver sets last year because they had Michael Pittman on the team. My guess is that they didn't.

[Heath]

Right.

[Dave]

But he's. His floor in slot rate over each of his first three seasons is 75.2%. Right now I'm on the hunt looking for who the best wide receiver is that played in the slot a lot under Shane Steichen. And I think I've come up with KEENAN ALLEN. In 2020, he played in the slot 52% of the time. Remember, he had 10 and a half targets per game that year and he had 17.5 PPR points per game. Keenan Allen was an absolute lunatic that season. That's really about it. Slot receivers have not been huge factors other than Josh Downs, who had. That would be the highest. Highest slot rate. 77. That was in 24. And he had 13 PPR points per game.

[Heath]

Yeah. You don't find. You don't find players who have big fantasy seasons with slot rates over 70%. I, I think Tyler Boyd might be one guy who did it. Maybe Keenan Allen had a season or something like that, but you just don't really see it basically ever. But he doesn't have to have a big season. You just have a, you know, he's must roster guy that we start a decent amount of times.

[Adam]

All right.

[Dave]

He plays outside more.

[Heath]

Yeah, I hope so. I hope he does. We got one more round here. Dave. You would not be surprised if Jalen Waddle finished top 12 in PPR per game.

[Jamie]

Nope.

[Dave]

I think Denver added him for a big reason. I think that that's one of the two biggest changes that the Broncos made this off season. The other one being Davis Webb is their play caller. I don't think their run game is going to be a major factor, which is too bad because they've got a great offensive line. We'll see if RJ Harvey can take the second step or if Jonah Coleman can take the first step. And I know that they spread the ball around so much last year. I wonder if they consolidate it this year because they have Waddle. And Waddle might not be like two and a half targets per game better than Cortland Sutton, but he might be one target per game better because he can do more. He's more versatile of a receiver. We've seen that over his career. We know that he's speedy. I do worry about the injuries with Jalen Waddle and I'll say that every single time. But when he's on the field and he's right, I would expect him to be at least a low end number two wide receiver in fantasy, if not potentially a top 12 guy. So I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes a top 12 guy.

[Heath]

This one would surprise me a little bit. But I like you've. You've been pretty pro Waddle ever since the trade. So I think I like, I like your enthusiasm for him. He's a terrific player. We just hope we can see that again. Heath, how surprised would you be if Jalen waddle finished top 12 per game in PPR?

[Jamie]

I. I would be pretty surprised. I think it would make. If Cortland Sutton gets hurt and Jalen Waddle gets to score more touchdowns then maybe not. We've seen Sean Payton in the past really hyper focus the passing game on one wide receiver. It's not what he's done in Denver. Even when Sutton was. I guess Sutton had one year where I think he had 130 targets, but I. They've been so spread the ball around over the last few years that it would take a major change in philosophy.

[Heath]

Okay, that is Jalen Waddle. We got two more. This one is Heaths. Oh yeah, let's go this one. Yeah, this one fired me up like a, like a dynasty draft debate. Heath would not be surprised if A.J. brown goes to the Patriots and has his worst season since he left Tennessee. Now to frame that 2022 through 2025 he was with Philadelphia. A.J. brown. I'll go from 2022 and then to the most recent year he averaged 17.9, 17.3, 16.7 and then last year 14.7 PPR fantasy points per game. That's the last four years. Heath is saying he'll be even worse than 14.7 PPR Fantasy points per game. Oh no.

[Jamie]

He would.

[Heath]

I'm sorry. He wouldn't be surprised. He wouldn't be surprised if A.J. brown has his worst season in the last five years.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I don't know that this is. And funny, I think this is saying basically his worst season since he was with Mike Vrabel. Right.

[Heath]

Was I? Okay, you know what, I don't know if he was worse in Tennessee or last year in Philadelphia. I will check that for you.

[Jamie]

Okay. Yeah, his, his last year in Tennessee, it might be a per game thing.

[Heath]

Touchdowns or 13.9 points per game in 2021, his last year with Mike Vrabel.

[Jamie]

I, I don't expect the Patriots to turn into a pass heavy offense. And it's kind of the same thing we just talked about with the Broncos is how much is Josh McDaniels going to change the spread the ball around plan if they go and spend a lot to get AJ Brown. And then the other thing is, and nobody wants to hear this, but is AJ Brown at 29 years old starting to slow down at all? And I don't want to hear this. You can, you can make the case looking he wasn't bad last year at all but you can make the case looking at last year that there was a little bit of a drop off from the insane efficiency that he's been approved given throughout of his career.

[Heath]

Yeah, I'm looking now by the way, just I was like, you know, I wonder if there's some partial games in that 2021 season. Oh yeah, we got a 12 snap game, we got a 52% snap game. We got a lot of azer statin to do for that year.

[Jamie]

I think A.J. brown's had a little ether statting most of his career, hasn't he?

[Heath]

There's he played hurt last year. Maybe he's at that point where he's going to have trouble staying healthy. I, I guess my counter would just be if you look at the very best season that the Eagles passing game had in the A.J. brown era, it was 2022, his first year there, it was 4,364 yards and 25 touchdowns. Last year Drake May threw for 4,426 yards and 31 touchdown touchdowns. I just feel like there's pretty much no way he's not going to be on a better passing environment. Even if they're not pass heavy, they're going to be so much especially what the Eagles were last year. Last two years Eagles been 3, 500 yards and 25 touchdowns. So he's gonna blow that away in New England, Dave.

[Jamie]

I think their past offense will blow that away. Yes. I think Drake May's pass efficiency will also regress a little bit. I still like Drake May. I'm still drafting with a top three quarterback, but I think he's probably not going to complete 72% of his passes and average nine yards per pass attempt.

[Heath]

Yeah. How surprised, Dave, would you be if A.J. brown had his worst season in five years?

[Dave]

Moderately surprised, but not you mentioned it. He's getting older and he was a little hurt last year, played through it, did the best that he could. There were times where he definitely looked like he was hurt. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the reason why. It wouldn't be because of the offense though. In New England. I just think that having Drake May throwing to you and that Team could end up throwing a lot more this year than they did last year. And Brown would be the top target. I think he'd have a chance to have some good numbers.

[Heath]

Final thought, Jamie and this trade better happen, by the way.

[Adam]

Right.

[Dave]

Right. I, I've, I've. I've resisted doing the work on it because what if the trade doesn't happen better?

[Heath]

Jamie, how surprised would you be?

[Adam]

Just he goes to a different team like we get, right. A.J.

[Dave]

brown to the Dolphins or the Rams.

[Heath]

I, I don't know that there's a team. The Rams would be bad. But if there's a team, is there a team that he go to? He goes to that. He's worse than last year. 14.7 ppr fantasy points per game, which isn't even that bad but not great.

[Adam]

I mean there was a stretch last year where he was averaging over 19 PPR points per game. So, you know, he still has that, you know, gear in him at least. I, I still expect him to have it. Age and potential injury not, not be factor. But like he gets worse. I think the Rams obviously is one just because it's so crowded there.

[Heath]

Jaguars.

[Dave]

Do we default to Cleveland? Yeah, I mean almost any receiver that

[Adam]

goes there jets will be bad.

[Heath]

I'll let Jamie finish here with his last one. Jamie would not be surprised. This is a Mike McDaniel special here. Would not be surprised if Omarion Hampton has a better fantasy season than Devon Achan.

[Adam]

It is all tied to Mike McDaniel. Mike McDaniel with his time in Miami got a touchdown leading season out of Raheem Mostert. He had two great seasons out of Devon Hn and now he leaves the Dolphins in what could be a very messy situation offensively at least for 2026. And he goes to the Chargers which should have one of the better offensive lines. You know, getting three new guys on the interior and getting their tackles back. Getting a guy that was a first round pick in Omarion Hampton and showed a lot of great examples of being a potential standout running back next season. And HN's situation is just potentially awful here in Miami. As we saw last year in the three games without Tua. The. The passing efficiency got a little bit worse and so will Malik Willis, who is probably more apt to run than Tua was. I think that's easy to say. Is not going to throw the ball to HN as much. Hopefully there'll be a lot of design passes for him and we get that, you know, easy opportunities because we talked about this last week. The Dolphins receiving core is bad. He hopefully will be among the target leaders on this team, and he's certainly been among the target leaders at his position for the last two seasons. But I wouldn't be surprised if the receiving numbers are close and Hampton's going to score more touchdowns and. I don't know. Mike McDaniel's influence is pretty big on this position. He was the running backs coach in San Francisco before taking the job in Miami. So I. I love the upside for Hampton, and I'm very nervous about the downside for agent.

[Heath]

Does. Does anybody have concerns about Amarian Hampton, or is he a pretty safe pick in your mind?

[Adam]

I don't think you could have safe in terms of a guy that didn't play a full season last year and, you know, his rookie season. So there has to be some concerns.

[Jamie]

I think he's safe to be an RB2, and he has the upside to be a good RB1

[Dave]

if he's drafted as an RB2, though.

[Jamie]

Right? Also, you guys didn't actually resolve the fantasy cops.

[Heath]

Can I just bring one thing up here?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Before we do that, I gotta. I gotta call out Jamie for something. I mean, okay, this is Amar. And Hampton's basically going back to back with Devon. Hn. Come on. You gotta. You gotta be bolder than this.

[Jamie]

Good.

[Adam]

I was just, you know, piggybacking off the Jacksonville streaming defense last week. You know, I thought that's just the route we're going.

[Heath]

Oh, come on. Come on.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

This. This is not. This is not what Jamie's all about. Jamie's a little. Usually bolder than this. Top 10 for Kyler O'. Barry.

[Adam]

I did this. After talking to you and the whole Dan thing, I was just, you know, let me get. I didn't want to make you guys wait.

[Heath]

And also, it seems like I'm being a little hard on Dan. I just want everybody to know he's one of my. He's one of my. He's my favorite colleague. Don't tell my other colleagues that, but he's my favorite colleague. I love Dan. He's a great, great guy.

[Adam]

He's the. He's my favorite character in the TV show of life.

[Heath]

Yeah, he's a character. What did we not resolve?

[Jamie]

The draft is currently paused.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

What. What was. What was the ruling? Do I. Do I allow the trade. Do I not allow Dan to make a pick?

[Heath]

No, I would allow it. I mean, is. I would. So. So you're talking about the trade of. Of him and Stefan swapping players back so they can have room to make picks. I would not let Dan walk out of this draft without at least three picks. I think document fourth round pick, it is his fault. He's being publicly shamed right now. I think that's kind of a pretty harsh penalty. Don't let him make a fourth pick. He doesn't deserve that. But I would let him make a third pick personally.

[Jamie]

And Dave and Jamie said no?

[Adam]

Nope.

[Dave]

No.

[Adam]

I think Dave said it best if you allowed the trades to continue like this. You're setting a precedent that it's allowed to trade back and forth the same players to make yourself better in terms of your fantasy roster, which is the definition of collusion. And so if you're going to allow him to make a third round pick, he should have. You tell him I'm starting the clock. You have three hours, which is what your timer is to find a way to make a trade that is valid to get players off of your roster to make a pick.

[Heath]

Let me just ask you this real life scenario here. Let's say. Let's say the Giants were about to play a game at 1 o' clock and it's 11:28 and they haven't submitted their inactives yet.

[Adam]

Right?

[Heath]

And you got to do it by 11:30, don't you think? Roger Goodell is on the phone with the Giants going, guys, where you're at actims. I mean that's how you do it.

[Jamie]

That's exactly how life works.

[Dave]

And John Harbaugh is gonna say, wait a minute, I didn't get an email from you, Roger. I didn't know the inactives were due then. Give me a break.

[Adam]

Adam. You remember the, the made up rules that you implement in your leagues?

[Heath]

I make them up as I go. I don't remember.

[Adam]

Correct. And you punished me twice.

[Heath]

No, this totally your fault. I told you a hundred times. You had to drop someone. You didn't do it and I dropped

[Jamie]

someone for you and I'm trying to prevent that.

[Adam]

You did. Right? You made imaginary rule and then you followed through with it and you punished me. So Heath has an actual rule that's in place and you're telling him to allow the person who's breaking that rule to get away with it.

[Heath]

Okay, I think that.

[Adam]

I'm sorry.

[Heath]

What?

[Adam]

Couldn't hear you through the hypocrisy?

[Heath]

No, not at all. I just think. I think that look, this is the rookie draft of a dynasty league. This is really, really important. Right.

[Jamie]

It didn't seem like it was that important to D. Well, it is important.

[Heath]

To Dan, it just. He's a little. Okay. If there's a word I would use for Dan, it's scatterbrained. Okay, he's a little scatterbrained. And this is the rookie draft of your dynasty. You're building the foundation of your team. This is the second year of the league, so it's not like the original draft, but you're building the foundation of your team. This is really important. I. I know he screwed up, and I do believe there should be a penalty. I don't think we should take away his third round pick. You're still like, I just drafted.

[Adam]

No, no, no, you're not. You're not taking away his third round pick. He does not have the ability to make a pick without doing something illegal.

[Heath]

All right, so you're basically forcing him to make an actual trade to free up a roster spot to take.

[Adam]

Yes, which he did in his second round pick, which was perfectly legal.

[Dave]

That's the rule.

[Jamie]

All right, he could trade his third and his. Yeah, trade his third and his fourth and one of those players for a later pick and.

[Heath]

All right.

[Dave]

I would probably suck it up and say it's over.

[Heath]

I would have just expanded the rosters as I don't. I don't like the rule personally.

[Adam]

So you would have another rule just to suit your. Your commissionership.

[Heath]

Wait, make up another rule? What do you mean?

[Adam]

You would just change the rules based on what you wanted it to be?

[Heath]

Well, as the commissioner, Yeah, I mean, that's. I would make my rules understanding. No, I don't mean I wouldn't change it right now, but I would have just done it differently to begin with. I would have just said, all right, you can make your draft picks and then make some cuts later. I would have expanded the rosters.

[Adam]

See, but if you don't make them

[Jamie]

in time, I'll just remove players from your team.

[Adam]

There's another part of this which this will. This will be a tease for Wednesday because I wouldn't say it, I wouldn't reveal it until Dan is here. But there's another part of this that he texted you that needs to be

[Heath]

said, the email thing.

[Adam]

Don't have to say anything more. Just have to tune in Wednesday.

[Heath]

Good tease. Good teaser Wednesday. All right. Good stuff today, guys. I wouldn't be surprised if I've lost a friend today when Dan listens back to the show.

[Adam]

No, you defended Dan. You're definitely Dan's defender.

[Heath]

I tried. I tried my best. We'll talk.

[Jamie]

I like Dan, too.

[Heath]

What'd you say?

[Jamie]

I like Dan, too.

[Heath]

We all do. He's the best. All right. He brings so much content. If nothing else, he provides so much content. It's really important piece for us here at Fantasy Football today. We will talk to you Wednesday. Have a great day, everybody. See you.

[Jamie]

Paramount Podcasts Criminal Minds Evolution is back. Do you think it's possible to discern some hidden pattern shared by all serial

[Dave]

killers with a new killer each week? I see those wheels turning. When a copycat killer emerges, the BAU will form a dark alliance with a familiar foe.

[Jamie]

Elias, would you help us this season?

[Dave]

Evil is contagious.

[Jamie]

Problem is, once it starts, it can't be stopped.

[Dave]

Criminal Minds Evolution new season streaming May 28th on Paramount Plus.