Bust-Proof! Who are the Safest Players to Draft? (06/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Bust-Proof! Who are the Safest Players to Draft? (Released June 17, 2025)

Hosted by Adam Aizer alongside analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and guest Dan, this episode delves into identifying "bust-proof" players in fantasy football drafts. The discussion navigates through various positions, analyzing player performances, potential risks, and overall reliability to aid fantasy managers in making informed drafting decisions.

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1. Introduction and Topic Overview

The episode kicks off with Adam Aizer greeting listeners and introducing the central theme: identifying bust-proof players in fantasy football drafts. The panel expresses skepticism about the concept of "bust-proof," emphasizing the unpredictability inherent in player performances.

Notable Quote:

Dave (01:20): "Well, hello everybody. Welcome to the show on Tuesday, June 17. This is Fantasy Football Today and we are talking about bust proof players..."

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2. Defining a "Bust" in Fantasy Football

The analysts debate the definition of a "bust," distinguishing between players who underperform relative to their Average Draft Position (ADP) and those hampered by injuries. The conversation highlights examples from recent seasons to illustrate the variability and subjectivity in labeling a player as a bust.

Notable Quotes:

Dave (01:39): "A concept that I don't even really believe in because guys, I've been looking at the last couple of years of ADP and I would say half of the first round over the last two years, if not more than 50%, has been a bust..."

Jamie (02:59): "I just think there's a difference between being a bad pick at ADP and being a bust."

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3. Running Backs: Assessing Reliability

Key Players Discussed:

• Derrick Henry: Celebrated for his consistent workload and high points per game, Henry is considered a strong candidate for a bust-proof designation.

  Notable Quote:

  Heath (24:34): "It's hard for me to say that these guys aren't bust proof... But you know, if he just does what he's done each of the last two years, I think that's a bad six-round pick, personally."

• Jonathan Taylor: Despite injury concerns, Taylor's role as a focal point in his team's offense positions him as a reliable option.

  Notable Quote:

  Dan (26:15): "I don't think he'll be down to like 11 or 12 PPR points per game. And maybe we need him to be closer to like 16 like he, like last year he was at 17.5. That's awesome."

• Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley: Discussed in the context of workload and injury history, with varying opinions on their bust-proof status.

Notable Discussion: The panel examines how offseason developments, such as team changes and player health, impact the reliability of running backs. They emphasize the importance of workload consistency and offensive stability in determining a player's fantasy value.

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4. Wide Receivers: Evaluating Consistency and Upside

Key Players Discussed:

• Jamar Chase: Highlighted for his high ADP and impressive performance metrics, Chase's status as bust-proof is debated, especially considering his fluctuating performance based on quarterback play.

  Notable Quote:

  Dan (07:12): "Why don't we just start with him? Do we consider him bust proof?"

• CD Lamb: Initially labeled as a bust by some, Lamb's subsequent performances and role in the offense lead to differing opinions among the analysts.

  Notable Quote:

  Dan (05:43): "CD Lamb not a bust."

• Stefon Diggs and Tyler Lockett: Discussed in terms of target volume and quarterback stability, influencing their reliability.

Notable Discussion: The analysts debate whether top-tier wide receivers can genuinely be considered bust-proof, citing examples where high ADP players did not meet fantasy expectations. They stress the challenge of predicting wide receiver performances due to variables like quarterback performance and offensive schemes.

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5. Quarterbacks: Reliability in the Critical Position

Key Players Discussed:

• Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes: Both quarterbacks are scrutinized for their consistency and potential to underperform relative to their draft positions.

  Notable Quote:

  Dave (18:25): "I think it's important for people who draft Lamar Jackson as QB1 to know that even if you remove his injured games, he was averaging about 24 points per game..."

• Malik Neighbors and Jaden Daniels: Younger quarterbacks with less proven track records, raising concerns about their reliability and potential for inconsistency.

  Notable Quote:

  Jamie (42:35): "I can't imagine they make the switch in the first half of the year unless they've also fired Brian Daboll."

Notable Discussion: The panel emphasizes the quarterback's pivotal role in fantasy football, noting that even slight deviations in performance can have significant impacts. They debate the feasibility of considering quarterbacks as bust-proof, given the high variability and critical nature of the position.

---

6. Tight Ends: Limited Options for Bust-Proof Status

Key Players Discussed:

• George Kittle: His performance variations and target efficiency are analyzed to determine his stability in fantasy drafts.

  Notable Quote:

  Jamie (48:10): "I think Kittle's situation got better... there's so much to love about the situation for Kittle."

• Trey McBride and Dawson Knox: Discussed regarding their target competition and offensive roles, impacting their consistency.

  Notable Quote:

  Dan (51:28): "They have just as much upside as though... but you can make a better bust case for each of those guys than you can for any of the seven we've talked about."

Notable Discussion: The conversation reveals that the tight end position offers fewer bust-proof options compared to other positions. The analysts discuss how limited elite options and high variability in performance make it challenging to confidently label any tight end as bust-proof.

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7. Conclusions and Final Thoughts

The episode wraps up with a comparative analysis between positions, debating whether running backs or wide receivers offer more bust-proof options in the first round. The consensus leans towards wide receivers being collectively safer, while running backs, despite having high-performing candidates, carry their own risks related to workload and injury.

Notable Quote:

Heath (46:27): "Collectively, the receivers are safer."

The panel underscores the importance of balancing draft strategies with an understanding of each player's role, health, and team dynamics to mitigate the risk of drafting a bust.

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Final Takeaways:

• Bust-Proof Concept Skepticism: The panel remains cautious about the feasibility of identifying bust-proof players due to the inherent unpredictability of player performances and unforeseen circumstances like injuries.

• Position-Specific Strategies: While wide receivers may offer more reliable options collectively, running backs like Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor emerge as strong candidates for minimizing bust risks. Quarterbacks and tight ends present more challenges in this regard.

• Continuous Evaluation Needed: Fantasy managers are encouraged to stay informed about player developments, team dynamics, and injury reports to make the most informed decisions and adapt strategies throughout the season.

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For a deeper dive into that discussion and more insights on bust-proof players across all positions, tune in to the full episode of Fantasy Football Today on CBS Sports.

Transcript

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[Dan]

What a play.

[Dave]

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[Jamie]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Dave]

Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[Jamie]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Dave]

Well, hello everybody. Welcome to the show on Tuesday, June 17. This is Fantasy Football Today and we are talking about bust proof players, a concept that I don't even really believe in because guys, I've been looking at the last couple of years of ADP and I would say half of the first round over the last two years, if not more than 50, has been a bust, be it injury or otherwise. There have been a lot of busts last year. Christian McCaffrey was an injury bust. I would say. Would you say CD Lamb was a bus last year? He was a bus, right?

[Dan]

Yeah, I think so.

[Adam]

Let's see.

[Dave]

So Lamb. Well, Lamb finishes wide receiver. Yeah, he was a bus. He was wide receiver nine per game and he was the second pick in the draft. Like that's 100% a bust. For, for Heath to believe it's a bust, it's got to be like the worst season ever.

[Jamie]

I just, I think there's a difference between being a bad pick at ADP and being a bust. I'm probably not going to call anybody who's top 10 at their position a bust.

[Dave]

Oh, my God.

[Heath]

The two biggest bust last year were Tyreek Kill and Breeze Hall.

[Dave]

Tyree Kill and Breeze hall, they were next on the list. They were three and four in adp or they were up there. They were top five. AJ Brown, was he a bust? I would say he was. He was wide receiver, 13 per game. He was a first round pick. Now maybe you are more on Heath's camp and I don't know if that's a bust. You know, maybe it's a mild bust. Jonathan Taylor, injuries. Garrett Wilson was definitely a bust.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think. I mean it's. We can. Busts come in different shapes and sizes and so I'll have our, our preferences for how we define that.

[Dave]

Okay. And 2023. Justin Jefferson was the first pick in the draft. He averaged 20 points per game when he was healthy, which is good. Not great, but good. But he actually probably left one of those games early. I didn't do an azer stat there, but he missed a bunch of games. Jamar Chase had a bad season. He was, he was a bust. Austin Eckler was a huge bus. Saquon Barkley. See that? Heath and I disagreed on that one. Saquon Barkley was RB3 in ADP. He was RB9 per game. I consider that a bust. Heath did not, which is fine. But we agreed Bijan Robinson was a bust. Stefan Diggs had a bad year in 2023. Nick Chubb tore his ACL and Devonte Adams was mild bust, I guess. But bottom line is that the first round hasn't been as safe as we want it to be.

[Heath]

Are we defining these by performance or injury or both?

[Dave]

Most of them, all the guys I said, I think only three of them were. Maybe four were injury McCaffrey last year, Jonathan Taylor last year, and Jefferson and Chubb the year before.

[Jamie]

I think that there's another distinction though, because like, does an injury bust have to just be a guy that misses half the season and then he was an injury bust? Or your favorite player and human being, Tyree Kill. If like he, as you said numerous times, had a broken wrist all year, was hurt all year, was he an injury bust?

[Dan]

He was the worst type of bust because he, he was. He played hurt, stayed on the field. You felt obligated to start him each week because you know what his upside is. But he almost never gave you that upside. I can't. That's the worst for me is when a player stinks. And yet I still am compelled to start him because of what I. Because of his ADP where I drafted him. Well, this might be the week that Tyree Kill Breaks out and so on and so forth. It's. It sucks when a guy gets hurt. Like McCaffrey got hurt. You took him with your first pick. That totally sucked. At least you knew not to start him because he wasn't playing.

[Dave]

Who. Who did I bench Tyreek Hill for in the fantasy championship? Does anyone remember? He was Peyton Barber. He finally had a good. He finally had a good game in week 17. And I benched him for some waiver wire guy. And it did not. I mean, I lost any. I would have lost anyway, but he had nine catches for 105 yards on nine targets at Cleveland. That was after a combined 65 yards the two previous weeks.

[Dan]

It took you four months to build up the courage to sit Tyree Kill.

[Dave]

That's what I'm saying. You know, but he had been.

[Dan]

That's.

[Dave]

But two was out. No, two was out at that point. Tua was out at that point. So that was.

[Dan]

You know, maybe that actually means that CD Lam wasn't a bust last year because even though like he, he didn't. He didn't meet expectations, he still averaged over 17 PPR points per game and he was fairly consistent.

[Dave]

No, he was a bust. Are you kidding? He was the number, number one receiver off the board. And what did I say finish.

[Dan]

His wife gave you 17.6 PPR points per game. He was sixth among all wide receivers in consistency, top three in targets per game. I. I know he didn't give you what you wanted, but he didn't kill you like Tyreek Hill killed you or like Breeze hall killed you.

[Dave]

No, Lamb was better than those guys, but he was a bust. Come on, Dave, don't take Heath's side here.

[Dan]

I think it's right. I'm gonna go back on that one.

[Dave]

Oh, that hurts. That hurts.

[Dan]

CD Lamb not a bust.

[Dave]

Are you kidding me, Jamie? You heard it some reason here. The CD Lama bus last year.

[Dan]

Yes, you're both wrong.

[Dave]

All right, so we'll talk about players that we think are bus proof, but Dave and I had a little chat off the air via instant message. Would you be happy with 20 fantasy points per game from Jamar Chase Last year he averaged 23.7. He's my. I guess the bet right now to be 1.1 in the consensus ADP. Would you be happy with 20 fantasy points per game from Jamar Chase in full PPR? You would?

[Heath]

Yes.

[Jamie]

You'd be happy if any non quarterback you draft at any point in the draft that averages 20 points per game. You don't get to complain about That.

[Dave]

I just have higher standards than you guys.

[Heath]

First overall pick, Aren't you the same guy that said you didn't want to run away first round pick like Christian McCaffrey last year?

[Dave]

I don't want a guy who's averaging 28 points per game. I said that two years ago. And by the way, we've had two years in a row of nobody being that good.

[Heath]

And we've had two last year coming off the 2023 season.

[Dave]

No, I think it was two years ago. And we've had two years in a row of, of that. Of more parody. And it's been. Many people are saying the two best fantasy football seasons ever. So I think I was right about that. All right. Jamar Chase in his career has averaged 18, 20.5, 16.4 and 23.7 PPR fantasy points per game in four seasons. Why don't we just start with him? Do we consider him bust proof? And by the way, if he averages 20, if a wide receiver averaged 20 PPR fantasy points per game over the last five seasons, that would have made him wide receiver 4, 4, 5, 5 and 3 per game. But do we think Jamar Chase is bust proof? Because I guess if I were going to argue against it, his 2024 season looks kind of reminds me of CD Lamb's 2023 season. Because Chase did something he's never done before. He had his best season by far. It was very much backloaded. He wasn't even really that good the first eight games of the season, the last nine games of the season, Joe Burrow was, was insane on pace for something like 5,400 yards. Chase was, let's see, the last, last eight games. Last eight games of the season, Chase was on pace for 2,106 yards, 21 touchdowns on 223 targets. Just video game numbers. But again, this was the best stretch of his career. The best season of his career. It came with Joe Burrow being better than he's. Oh, Burrow is on pace for 5,682 yards and 49 touchdowns in those eight games. So do you see the parallels there? Chase this year, Lamb last year, and do you think he's bust proof?

[Jamie]

No, I think if any wide receiver, quarterback misses half the season, they get bust.

[Heath]

So.

[Jamie]

I think it's better to talk about bust potential without injury because I don't think we're very good at predicting injury, especially when you're talking about wide receivers. And now you have to predict whether their quarterback is going to get hurt or they're going to get hurt. So I got. I think CD was right around 19 fantasy points per game with Dak last year.

[Dave]

Right.

[Jamie]

I think 19 is possible for Chase. Sure. But I'm not gonna sit around and worry about is this guy gonna score 19 fantasy points a game?

[Dave]

Okay, 19. So. So that was Lamb. He averaged 23.8 the year before, which is almost. Which is a little bit better than what chase averaged in 2020.

[Jamie]

Any wide receiver that averages 23 fantasy points a game, you should not expect them to do it again the next year. Did you not expect any player to average 23 fantasy points per game unless they're a quarterback?

[Dan]

To that end, there were four human beings last year that averaged over 20 PPR points per game that were not quarterbacks. So getting one of those guys with your first pick, I would say is a pretty good idea.

[Dave]

Okay.

[Heath]

Not for Adam.

[Dave]

No.

[Dan]

For new Adam.

[Dave]

If you raised it to 21. Let me ask you this.

[Dan]

A quarterback in round one.

[Dave]

Let me ask you this.

[Dan]

Can score 30 points.

[Dave]

Let me ask you this. Let me ask you this. Different. Frame it differently. If you take Jamar chase as wide receiver 1. As the first overall pick, you would be happy if he finished any. As wide receiver. What. What's the lowest finish he could have that you'd be happy with the pick.

[Heath]

At his position?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Dan]

I think you're asking the question the wrong way.

[Heath]

If he was wide receiver 5, I'd be happy with it. Assuming that the four guys ahead of him were all within the same range as him.

[Dan]

Right.

[Heath]

I'm thinking, like, if he's wide receiver 5 at 17 points per game and the four guys ahead of him are all over 20 points per game, then I'd be disappointed.

[Dan]

CD Lamb last year, 17.6 PPR points per game. If Jamar does that this year, it's. It's kind of a bummer. But I wouldn't say that he's a bus.

[Dave]

Oh, co. Yes, you would. Yes, you would.

[Dan]

We're having the same exact rv. I know six minutes ago, I.

[Jamie]

There's a difference. There is. There's got to be some in between. Adam between. I am happy with this pick. And this guy was a bust.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Is sign is bad. Significantly like bad. There's a. There's a middle ground.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

I'm happy with him. And he's a bust.

[Dave]

I just think what happened there.

[Dan]

Wide receiver six. But the five receivers ahead of him averaged eight.

[Heath]

Both can be true that.

[Dan]

I don't know. 17.6. I don't think it's a bust at that point. He's got to do what Garrett Wilson did last year. Okay? Garrett Wilson was taken in round one. We all loved him because we thought he'd be the guy that we, we think he, we thought he'd be the guy that DK Metcalf is who we think will be that guy this year where he just soaks up targets from Aaron Rodgers non stop. And he didn't do it. He. His numbers sank. He wasn't even on the same page as Rogers at points during the early part of the year, and he didn't even average 15 PPR points per game. That's a bust.

[Heath]

See, but that's an interesting case though, because, yeah, the. Adams did, the pace that he was on before Devonte Adams, especially the couple games before Devonte Adams, like, he probably would have lived up to his draft billing if Adams never went there. We wouldn't be close.

[Dave]

Yeah, I mean, he was leading the NFL on targets. Right?

[Heath]

Like there's, that's, that's like, Let me see. That's. This is the, the, the factor that we can't control, you know, trades or anything. But it's like he's point, you know, the quarterback injuries. I think like a better one. Dave is probably Marvin Harrison, you know, who just stunk.

[Dan]

That is a better one.

[Heath]

And was a first trumpet.

[Dan]

Garrett was at 16.2 in the six games and they were like all into those week five and six games, he didn't even have 15 PPR points in a game until week five.

[Dave]

Yeah, he, he was probably like a mild bust at that point, but it was worse after that.

[Dan]

Sure.

[Dave]

Okay. So what I think happened in the last few minutes was Dave started talking about if Jamar Chase averaged 17 point, whatever points per game and you realized, you realized that he would be a bust, but you wouldn't go back. You. You didn't want to contradict yourself.

[Dan]

It's not what I want.

[Jamie]

Okay.

[Dave]

All right, we're gonna take a break here and we got some news and notes for you. And then we'll talk about some players that we think might be bust proof right after this on fft.

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[Dave]

News and notes. Jordan Addison's trial for his 2024 DUI arrest is set for June 15th. Sorry, yeah, it was not two days ago. July 15th. Thank you. So we actually could have. Could have a suspension. We'll see what happens there with Jordan Addison, John who Smith. Situation with the Dolphins is still fluid according to his agent, Drew Rosenhaus and minor news maybe, but deeper leagues, Josh Reynolds is the favorite to be the number two wide receiver for the Jets.

[Heath]

All right, so Garrett Wilson should be a first round pick.

[Dave]

Second on the team in targets for the jets is going to be who? Mason Taylor, Josh Reynolds, Reynolds, Breeze Hall. No votes for Breeze Hall.

[Heath]

No, I would take Lazard over Reynolds though.

[Dave]

All right. I figured.

[Jamie]

I. I think Lazard's gonna be with Aaron Rodgers probably.

[Heath]

Yeah, that might be true.

[Dave]

So bus proof players.

[Heath]

He's probably begging for Randall Cobb to come out of retirement right now.

[Dan]

Where is Jordy Nelson these days?

[Dave]

Dave said Burrow and Allen at quarterback. Heath said Burrow, Allen, Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. Neither of you said Jaden Daniels. Do we not think he's bust proof?

[Jamie]

You see a little more. Okay, I said Mahomes too, but that's only because of cost.

[Dave]

All right, but that's a good one, right? Because Mahomes is qb what, six for you guys?

[Jamie]

QB six. I think he's getting drafted in round six.

[Dave]

I would argue that. And oh man, you better not disagree with this winner. I will fly to Florida and we'll have at it.

[Jamie]

That would be. Are you incentivizing me?

[Heath]

It is NAT season down here, so.

[Dave]

I hope this flight will be expensed.

[Dan]

I thought you were a Panthers fan. You're not here already.

[Dave]

I would love to be there. See how much ticket. I'm going to look at how much tickets are.

[Dan]

So a thousand bucks.

[Dave]

Are they?

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Anyway, if Patrick Holmes gets drafted in the sixth round as QB6 and he does what he did the last two years where he's basically QB12 per game. Bust.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Okay. Yeah, I, I think that if you made a list at the end of each season of all the players who were busts. By your definition, it would be a very, very long list.

[Heath]

You think that was definitely a bust last year?

[Dave]

Yeah, come on.

[Jamie]

Right, but he was drafted. He was drafted as a top three quarterback. Yeah, okay, but that's a completely different thing than if he's drafted in round six.

[Dan]

But if you, if you draft him in round six and he ends up as QB11 on the year, I, I see Adam's point.

[Dave]

Yeah. Come on.

[Dan]

Yeah, that's. That's not what we want. We want somebody.

[Jamie]

It's not what I want. I wouldn't be happy.

[Dan]

8.

[Dave]

He.

[Heath]

He's again though, you got to put it in context. Is he QB11 because he had a good season, everybody else was better, or is he QB11 because that's fair?

[Dan]

Right? Right. Yes. I should have said that. Like if he finishes with 22 points per game, that's pretty good.

[Dave]

But he hasn't done that either. The last two years. He's been what Mahomes has been right around 20 points. Right. 21 points per game. So if you're drafting that in the sixth round, I, I'd be pretty disappointed with that. I. And personally that's. I didn't think he was bust proof even at his cost. Because if he just does what he's done each of the last two years, I think that's a bad six round pick, personally.

[Jamie]

It's not one you're happy with? No.

[Dave]

Okay. Does anybody disagree about Alan Jackson, Hertz and Burrow being bus proof?

[Heath]

They're all bus potential.

[Dan]

I'll. I'll make the case for Jackson not being bus proof. We're taking him as the QB2. Some people want him as QB1 the years before last year. This is 20, 23 and back. 23.7 points per game, 22.5, 21.6, 21.6 in 2021, 24.7 in 2020. I think if you're drafting him as the second quarterback off the board, on average, you're expecting him to be on the bright side of 25, if not closer to 30, which is where he was last year, you're looking for a repeat of last year. If you're drafting Lamar Jackson at as the top quarterback off the board, even the second quarterback off the board board. But he's been pretty low. Not as low as Mahomes, but like more like top 6ish by comparison. And that would disappoint me a little. That would make me a little sad. I'd cry three tears.

[Dave]

Yeah. So the only, only issue I have with everything you just said was that he is a guy that you. I think you do have to azer stat because Lamar Jackson has, you know, left games early and it's really affected. I mean you could be talking about a point, point and a half per game, so.

[Dan]

Right. But I'm still starting him in those games.

[Dave]

Okay, I get it. But when he's healthy, this is what he's done over the previous five seasons. 32. The six point per pass in touchdown leagues, 32.5 points per game. That was his first MVP. 25.5, 24.2, 24.3, 23.6. And last year I think was 30 points.

[Dan]

Right, 30.1.

[Dave]

So even removing the injured games four years in a row, Lamar Jackson was between 23.6 and 25.5 fantasy points per game and six point for passing touchdown leagues. He was usually finishing closer to QB5. One year is QB10 per game one year, QB8, then five, then four, and then last year one. Let's say he averages 24.5 points per game and he finishes his QB4 per game. You guys cool with that as taking him as one or as QB one or two?

[Jamie]

If that's the floor, sure.

[Heath]

How much better were the other three guys?

[Dave]

I mean, I can't really do this for every, every player. I mean I would say we're talking.

[Heath]

About a guy that's going number one or two at his position.

[Dave]

Right. That's the thing. Like in a normal year that's if he's. If he's QB4 and he's going one or two. I don't want to quibble but, but that's what he had been for four straight years. He had been more like 24 points per game. And then he's got these bookend years where he's scoring 30 or more points per game.

[Jamie]

It's a better floor than anybody other than Josh Allen.

[Dan]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

Second best floor at the position. And I think, I think what we've seen, I think Jamie when he sent the text, we had a little text chat about bus this morning and Jamie said anyone after round 10 because everybody you drafted early could bust. And you. That's kind of how you view it, Adam, like any. Anybody could be three points worse than they were last year and they're a bust.

[Dave]

Well, I just think it's important for people who draft lamar Jackson as QB1 to know that even if you remove his injured games, he was averaging about 24 points per game in the, in the four years combined and he hadn't finished higher than QB4 in that stretch. But we have seen the heights of Lamar Jackson. They're, they're pretty much unmatched I think.

[Heath]

At this position because to get one of the top, I'll say five guys, but really the top three I think are gonna go a little bit sooner if you don't get your return on investment to that level and I think fourth is fine, but like if you don't get your return on investment to that level, like you really could be in trouble.

[Dave]

Can you say I'm sorry, say that one more time?

[Heath]

If you're, you're investing in a position that's so deep and has so much talent to it that if you do bust at this position with the early pick at quarterback and let's say it's Fields or DAC or bet, you know, I'm just cherry picking on the other side of the, you know, graphic here. Trevor Lawrence has a big year, you know, whoever it may be, right, like you, you, you really busted that position a little bit more I think. You know, like the, the it. You don't want to qualify the level of bus, but like Jackson going from QB1 to QB4 with a significant point per game drop off like could really sink your fantasy team by comparison to let's say these other positions at least. I don't know if I'm explaining that the right way, but.

[Dave]

No, I get it, I get it.

[Dan]

It's like this. You'd rather be the guy that takes Bo Nicks with your last pick or off the waiver wire, then spends the six round pick on CJ Stroud last year or the, the third or fourth round pick on Patrick Mahomes.

[Heath]

It's not so much the sixth round pick on CJ Shout, it's that these guys, they're. AD is going to be most likely in round two, right?

[Dan]

It already is on in our fans.

[Heath]

Only, you know, so like that, that to me is, you know, it like magnifies the bus potential because like you really need to hit on these guys being there. They're at their adp.

[Dave]

So that's, that's kind of what I was getting at. Right. If you take Jackson or Allen in round two, do you feel like you need at least 26 points per game and six point per passing touchdown leagues to feel good about that pick or are you cool with 24?

[Heath]

I think again it's probably relative to the position, you know, so where they're finishing in, in that range. So if they're at 24 and that's the best, it's a down year for quarterbacks, and I think you're fine with it. If there's, you know, four or five guys that have, you know, eclipsed them, two or three guys that have eclipsed them to whatever degree, you know, then it probably. You feel like you wasted the pick. But it depends on how you, you know, approach it. Like, obviously he's not going to be upset about it, you know, whereas you're going to be a little bit more disciplined.

[Dave]

Yeah. All right, running back.

[Dan]

I got a guy who's an easy must start, who's at the top of the league as far as points per game. I'm not complaining.

[Dave]

Complaining yet? No. Look, I mean, there's, there's some players that you're not going to complain, but you're gonna be, you know, I thought he'd be a little bit better than.

[Heath]

That, like CD Lamb. Like you're not going to complain about it, but you were hoping for more.

[Dan]

There you go. No complaining allowed. I'm pretty sure.

[Jamie]

I'm pretty sure Adam's gonna complain.

[Dave]

That's not. Yeah, that's not. I don't.

[Heath]

Was that old Adam?

[Dave]

Old Adam? Yeah, New Adam. New Adam's still gonna complain. All right, running backs that we like.

[Heath]

To make pickups this week or what? Did you change that again tonight?

[Dave]

You can make your pickups for the big Burger league, no problem. There were so many players drafted, dropped over the last few days, and they are all horrible and I don't want any of them, including the seven that I had to drop. Running backs that are. That are bust proof. So, Dave, you said Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Heath added, you know, Bijan Barkley, Gibbs, Kyron, and also Taylor and Jacobs. I guess my question is, do you think any running back like Derek Henry and maybe Jonathan Taylor, depending on how many games Anthony Richardson plays that is going to be so low in receiving volume and receptions is bust proof, apparently. Dave, you do?

[Dan]

No, I like the running backs that I think have a. A big grip on the workload and their, their offense isn't necessarily changing compared to last year and they're gonna get a ton of short yardage touchdowns. It might be different for me with Jonathan Taylor if Anthony Richardson is healthy and he's back at training camp and he's. He's dazzling because obviously that's a guy that's going to take away a lot of touchdowns at the goal line from Taylor.

[Jamie]

Is he?

[Dan]

I don't think Jones Will take away nearly as many. Might take like two. Like and so Taylor last year.

[Dave]

He has a follow up question. Go ahead.

[Jamie]

Didn't Taylor score like the highest rate of his career playing with Richardson last year?

[Dan]

He might have. So maybe that point.

[Dave]

No.

[Dan]

Doesn't even matter.

[Dave]

He had 50% of the goal line carries when Richardson was on the field, which is a pretty low number.

[Dan]

Yeah, that's low. So didn't. That'll go up if, if it's Daniel Jones starting and then he keeps the job all year long.

[Jamie]

But he scored more than a touchdown per game in those games, right?

[Dave]

It's quite possible. I mean he was, he was very good, especially at the end. But I don't. It depends, like do you just look at the raw production or do you look at the underlying trends which is very few catch. One catch per game and half the goal line work is not great. But you know, he was really good with Richardson. They ran the offense through him, had a ton of carries. So yeah, there's two sides of that coin. He.

[Dan]

Dave, I don't think Taylor will suck. I don't think he'll be down to like 11 or 12 PPR points per game. And maybe we need him to be closer to like 16 like he, like last year he was at 17.5. That's awesome. If he does that again this year, no problem. But I don't think his role is going to shrink. I don't care about the, the running back they drafted. I don't think their offense is going to change that much. I think he's still going to be the focal point. I think Jacobs is going to be the focal point in Green Bay again. And I think that we know what to expect with Derek Henry and that's a dude who is averaging over 20 points per game anytime he had at least 14 touches in a game. So as long as Baltimore is in games where they're not trailing bad in the second half, Derrick Henry is going to be fine. Unless of course, you know, old guy gets hurt.

[Heath]

See, that's the thing. It's like it's hard for me to say that these guys aren't buzz proof. When didn't you Correct me if I'm wrong. You put Taylor in the bus category from last year.

[Dave]

Right?

[Heath]

Because of injury.

[Dave]

Yeah, because of injury, but not because performance.

[Dan]

This conversation. We're not considering injury.

[Heath]

Right.

[Dan]

Because everybody.

[Heath]

We are. We're not.

[Dave]

No, no, no, no, no.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Dave]

Yeah. RBC. He was RB7 per game. Jonathan Taylor last year in, in, in full PPR, RB5 per game and in non and half PPR. And he missed three games. But I, you know, he was. I don't know where he ranked, unfortunately.

[Jamie]

No, I was just saying he did outscore Josh Jacobs last year per game, right?

[Dan]

Who, Taylor?

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Dan]

Yeah, by three.

[Dave]

Oh, did he? Oh, I had them back.

[Dan]

I have a 17.5 to 17.2.

[Dave]

Okay, let's call it a time.

[Jamie]

He outscored James Cook per game. He outscored Kyron Williams per game. Like, I don't think Jonathan Taylor was a bus last year.

[Dan]

I know.

[Dave]

Only because of injury. No, he was not a bust. He just. He has three games.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I. Okay.

[Dave]

I don't.

[Dan]

He almost scored as many PPR points per game as hn not.

[Dave]

Fine. Yeah, I can take him off the list. He was, he was 13th overall at running back in full PPR.

[Dan]

And if we knew that Derrick Henry was going to play 15 games, he'd be an early round one pick. The, the whole reason why he's not a first round pick is because he's the old man.

[Heath]

I think his ADP will put him in round one.

[Jamie]

I do too.

[Dave]

This guy's been healthy. This guy's been healthy every year but one of his career.

[Dan]

Right. When he broke his foot in half.

[Heath]

Right. But it's hard to say that a 31 year old running back is not bus proof.

[Dan]

Yeah, this guy's as good as he's been.

[Dave]

Every conversation we had about Derek Henry a year ago, it's like completely incorrect.

[Heath]

You're right.

[Dave]

No, but not just completely incorrect. But the same theories still apply. Right, because he had 19. 19 catches in 17 games. Yeah.

[Heath]

Look, he continues to defy the odds and hopefully he does until the day he decides to retire. I mean, he's. He has been one of the biggest freaks of nature in a positive way at this. In this game, at this position. And he continues to reward fantasy managers despite idiots like me saying he's going to have be a bus.

[Dave]

Well, look, he. He went from three seasons of 4.3, 4.4, 4.2 yards per carry to a career high 5.9 yards per carry.

[Heath]

Well, I mean, we also said that and it was a very small sample size because the Titans didn't win very many games, but when they won Games in 2023, he was still that same guy. And then, you know, going to a team that averages 10 wins a season under Harbaugh, I mean, that was just a. An easy win for him given the circumstances. Like, he's always been better when the team is successful.

[Dave]

Sure. Because. Right. Because any running back who doesn't catch passes couldn't get game scripted, but so that. That wasn't really a big issue for him. However, I just think it's just worthy. It's just worth noting pointing out the efficiency being obviously like you could say, oh, he's going to run better with the Ravens. 5.9 yards per carry is insane.

[Dan]

Yeah. That's beyond anything we would have guessed.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And now he's got his new goal in front of him, so it's easy.

[Dan]

I.

[Dave]

Right. Getting the Sandler movie.

[Heath]

That's right.

[Dave]

I don't know why I haven't drafted him yet. It's like I'm still worried about the. The possibility of him being a bust because all. First of all, we pretty much only do full PPR drafts be different in a different format. But with Derrick Henry, I don't know. I mean, I feel like I need to pull the trigger one of these days is he's freaking Derek Henry, you know.

[Dan]

Good analysis.

[Dave]

Yeah. Well, I, I don't know.

[Dan]

I'm not being sarcastic. We know who he is. We know what he's capable of. We know what his upside is. Sadly, he was not one of the guys that averaged 20 PPR points per game last year. He did when he, you know, had 14 or more touches on the year. Just 19.8.

[Dave]

There you go. I. I think James Cook is bust proof in the third round. It's another one. I think Heath is definitely going to agree with me on. Disagree with me on. Excuse me. But just to sum it up, James Cook was RB19 per game two years ago when he scored four touchdowns. So I can't really see him being any worse than that. And realistically, I don't think James Cook is going to be anything worse than RB15, and I think that's going to be right around his adp. So that's why I've been. That's been a guy that I've been happy to take in round three.

[Jamie]

I think the only thing I would be concerned about is that he was RB19 two years ago and last year he had actually fewer rush attempts and catches per game than he did in his RB19 season. So, like, if. If he has last year's usage and the touchdowns are half, then he's a bust.

[Dan]

Yeah, it's. It's going to be an ugly bust.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dave]

I just. Is there another running back in that range that you feel better about? Safer. So that would be Breece Hall. You know, I'm seeing Kyron Williams and Fantasy pros, adp. We. We would definitely rather have Kyron Williams. Let me just see who's going around. James Cook. Sorry. Breeze Hall, James Cook, Omari and Hampton. Ken Walker.

[Dan]

Yeah. Rather have Cook.

[Heath]

Walker's the only one that's close.

[Dave]

Who do you think's more bus proof, Walker or Cook?

[Heath]

No, hold out.

[Dan]

I'll say Cook, provided that he doesn't have any type of holdout practices throughout training camp. Like, don't let the contract stop him. If the contract issue becomes a problem, then he's very.

[Heath]

This is like a tough call because you're comparing him to a guy that's always had injury problems.

[Dan]

And Walker. Sure.

[Heath]

It's like if you. If you say right now they're both playing the same amount of games. I'd rather Walker.

[Jamie]

I think if we're not considering injury at all, then, then I think Mix and Connor and Camara have a better floor than Cook.

[Dave]

You feel that way still about mixing after the Chubbs?

[Jamie]

I don't. I'm and I this again. I could just be wrong about this, but I don't think Nick Chubb's going to matter.

[Dan]

I'm with you on that.

[Dave]

Okay.

[Dan]

I hate to say it, but I agree with you. I'm grewing a lot with heat today.

[Dave]

Last one. Do you think Christian McCaffrey is bust proof other than injury if he stays on the field? He's bus proof.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dan]

Is anyone here worried that they take more work off his plate, especially in the early?

[Heath]

I'm surprised if they didn't but I still think at him at a lesser workload is still top three at the position.

[Dave]

Okay. All right, guys, let's take another break. Wide receivers, when we come back on fft.

[Dan]

I think you're on mute.

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I think you're on mute.

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[Dave]

So are there any first round wide receivers that you guys don't think are.

[Jamie]

Bus proof by your definition? Probably not.

[Dave]

I'll rephrase it. Are there any first round wide receivers that you could see finishing outside the top 10 at the position realistically?

[Heath]

So first round to their quarterback that's.

[Dave]

Got this probably got to be a little bit lower because there's going to be what like seven guys taken in the first round.

[Jamie]

Is that Chase, Jefferson, Lamb, Neighbors, Puka, Nico Amon radio? Is it. Is that the, the first round?

[Heath]

I don't know if Nico will get in the first round, but I would say the other six. Yes.

[Dave]

Well, I can tell. I'll just tell you right now what fantasy pros has. Chase, Jefferson, lamb, Puka, neighbors, St. Brown and Nico's 12th.

[Heath]

Okay.

[Dan]

Yeah, we have Nico at 11.8.

[Jamie]

So I think if we're taking injury, all injuries out of the equation, then the one that I could see. Is there still a decent chance that. Not a big chance, but Devonte Adams could be the number one touchdown scorer for the Rams next year. Pukinakua could be the 1B in terms of targets for Matthew Stafford and then Puka maybe falls to, I don't know, wide receiver, 11 or 12.

[Dan]

The problem is that Pukinakua averaged 18.8 PPR points per game last year. Do you know how many touchdowns he scored?

[Dave]

What's five? Six? Oh, well, he was on pace for six, I think. Right, right.

[Dan]

He didn't play the full year but he, I think the number might be three lower.

[Dave]

Three touchdowns in 11 games. He was on pace for five touchdowns.

[Dan]

And he averaged almost 19 PPR points. So I don't, I can't call. I know, Heath, I think you're just like playing devil's advocate more than anything else. But I, I can't go to Puka and say, well, he could still bust because devonte Adams hogs so many touchdowns. I'm kind of counting on that and I'm cool with it. It makes me not want Puka as much in non ppr. But I, I still think he's going to be a very good fantasy receiver.

[Heath]

I mean you could obviously make an argument for a lot of these guys. Chase is probably the most difficult one barring a burrow injury. But I mean Jefferson's getting a first time started quarterback which could be disastrous. Sorry, Thomas. I mean CD Lamb's coming off a season where he just lost. Dak Prescott is 32 coming back from that injury and now has George Pickens there. Neighbors may not click with Russell Wilson who's, you know, in his late 30s and may have to go to Jackson Dart, which could be a disaster. Puka, he just gave you that scenario. You know, I mean it's. We talked about Amara St. Brown yesterday, right? And the potential of the touchdowns regressing and the catch rate going down and all those things. You know, so we saw AJ Brown, you mentioned it. You know, he was a bus last year. Nico, go ahead, make a bus, Make a bus case.

[Dave]

Make a bus case for Nico because I actually think, I actually think he's one of the guys that I put toward the top of the bus proof list in the first.

[Heath]

Well, I mean for starters, his quarterback is coming into camp with a shoulder injury, so that could be.

[Dave]

Yeah, he was throwing last week though, which was. But you're right, that's a great point.

[Heath]

Again, all of these are, are very small nitpicking things because you see, consensus wise, I'm no different. I have all these guys ranked as first round pick, so I'm excited about all of them. But I mean, look, what if the combination of Christian Kirk and, and Higgins are, are just great and it's taking away some targets and production from Nico? Like.

[Dave]

Yeah, yeah, I, I thought about that.

[Heath]

But honestly, they're very small things.

[Dave]

Stefan Diggs was, was having a very good year. Tank Dell was there and Nico was still really good. I just going to tell you right now, I love Nico Collins. So drafting a lot of Nico Collins.

[Heath]

This isn't to talk you out of, not anybody of talking Adam loving Nico Collins. I don't think he was trying to do that with Puka and I wasn't trying to make the case with any of these other players because again, this is where I have them ranked. But you know, if, if we're making a bust case like there, there, it's, it's hard to say that, you know, Jamar Chase is bust proof. When you laid out the 2023 season when Joe Burrow, who's had a pretty lengthy injury history, was struggling with injuries and Chase suffered.

[Dave]

I do want to try to take out even quarterback injuries from this.

[Heath]

I get that.

[Dave]

But yeah, because when Chase and Burrow were healthy in 2023, which wasn't that many games, but yeah, it was amazing. And then he carried it into 2024 which gives me more hope that he can have another huge season of 22 or more fantasy points per game. Jefferson, I've talked about this a lot. The targets went way down last year. They didn't throw quite as much and you had Addison and you had Hawkinson for half the season and now you've got this wild card at quarterback Neighbors. Like I would personally maybe this like self loathing Giants fan thing here. I would not put neighbors on a bus proof list at all because I think Russell Wilson might be horrible.

[Jamie]

And no, here's the thing and this is kind of the point. First off, all the reports of Russell Wilson at Giants camp are like, holy crap, this is what a real quarterback looks like. Even if he's like we haven't seen anything to suggest he's worse than I would say average, but slightly below average maybe as an NFL quarterback. And Malik Neighbors as a rookie just delivered a monster season with Daniel Jones, Drew Locke, Tommy DeVito and somebody else. I, I can't Tim Boyle guys on their quarterback depth chart that are probably better passers than anybody he's ever caught a pass from in the NFL.

[Dan]

Okay, so let's, let's look at it this way. What if and this is now I'm going to play devil's advocate. Russ is below average like you said. And the, the Giants actually have a semblance of a run game and a semblance of a defense and the target volume from Malik Neighbors, which really is what I think helped carry him to some of those huge numbers. He averaged 11.3 targets per game. What if that number goes down to 8.3? That's what Amunra had last year. I think that that's your, that's your bus case for Malik Neighbors is the, the passes are maybe a little bit better than they were last year, but there's just not as many of them because the Giants aren't in the same type of situation that they were in a year ago.

[Jamie]

I, I would just say that like that's possible but the Giants are favored on in one game on their entire space.

[Dan]

I completely agree with that.

[Dave]

That's what concerns me though because it's not Russell Wilson that concerns me. It's Jackson Dart. And I do feel like they could go to Jackson Dart fairly early. They have the toughest schedule in the NFL so that, that maybe you think Dart is just better than all the guys they had last year. And I, I do agree with that. He probably will. I don't know. He may not be better than what Daniel Jones was. He's a rookie and honestly not, not that great of a Quarterback prospect. So that's what scares me with Malik Neighbors and as good as he was last year, he was wide receiver 14 per game and non PPR and wide receiver 8 per game in full PPR, which is great. But with all those targets 11, whatever targets per game. As Dave said, now he's being drafted in the first round. It was great last year when he was a fourth round pick or whatever he ended up being. But now he's being drafted in the first round. The standards are higher. I am concerned about Jackson Dart.

[Jamie]

I and I just don't know. Like maybe they do make the switch early, but I can't imagine they make the switch in the first half of the year unless they've also fired Brian Dable.

[Dave]

Yeah. Okay.

[Dan]

They have a very late buy week. 14.

[Dave]

All right. That would be our wide receiver discussion. Let's go to tight end.

[Dan]

Oh, make one other point about the receivers.

[Dave]

Actually. Yes. And I had a follow up question. Go ahead.

[Dan]

Those seven receivers that we talked about, there's a reason why they're. They're taken first in drafts because they the case for them as busts are pretty minimal. And I don't know how many other receivers at the position can touch that group of seven in terms of upside and potential and, and all the things.

[Heath]

Well you're leaving out to then who.

[Dan]

Are the two I'm leaving out?

[Heath]

Well, A.J. brown and Brian Thomas. I mean they have just as much upside as though.

[Dan]

But you can make a better bus case for each of those guys than you can for any of the seven that we've talked about.

[Dave]

But you know what two guys that I think Dave. Well, one guy that you put on your list that I didn't mention. Would you say that T. Higgins and Drake London are basically bus proof? Like it seems like the worst of T. Higgins when he's healthy is something like wide receiver 15 and Drake London should just be an absolute target hog and there are second round picks. Instead of having to, you know, hope for 20 points per game, you'd be happy with like 16, 17 out of them. Do you think Higgins and London are buzz proof?

[Dan]

I think Higgins is not bust proof whatsoever. Last year was his best year by far and if, if he doesn't score as many touchdowns, he's taking a big step back. 9.1 targets per game seems like a lot. I don't know if he can replicate that.

[Dave]

He was wide receiver five last year though. Right. So.

[Jamie]

Right.

[Dan]

And we're not drafting him as wide receiver 5, but there's years on record where he's like wide receiver 25.

[Heath]

If he's healthy, it's hard to see him being a bust.

[Jamie]

It's also hard to call him bust proof when he seemingly misses four games every year. Yeah, but.

[Heath]

And he's the Ken Walker of wide receivers.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

And I, I don't think I can call. I don't think Drake London is, is to the point to where you can have the bust proof conversation. Like he did average 16 fantasy points a game last year, which is what you're saying that you want. But the, the, the eight week 18, I think had a lot to do with that.

[Dan]

He, he averaged 8.8 targets per game without counting week 18. If you include week 18, it's 9.3 and he averaged like 15 PPR points. It was exactly 15. If you take out week 18.

[Dave]

That's Drake London. Okay. As we've talked, that's what you should.

[Dan]

Expect for Drake London when you draft him somewhere between 15 and 16.

[Heath]

He could be better than that though, with a more live arm at quarterback.

[Dave]

As we've talked about these running backs and wide receivers and we've made these bust cases and these bus proof cases, do you feel the first round running backs or first round wide receivers are safer than, you know, is one safer than the other in your mind?

[Dan]

The receivers are safer.

[Heath]

Collectively, the receivers are safer.

[Dave]

That's so interesting. I was kind of leaning the other way. I felt like the running backs, like, I felt like the running backs had had better bust proof cases.

[Heath]

I mean, I think in the case of the running backs that are slam dunk first round picks, I feel the most confident in Bijan. Why he's, that's why he's first for me. Barkley terrifies me because of the workload and the history of 2000 yard rushers. Achan was not terrible, but he was pretty bad when Tua was not there.

[Dave]

He's not. For what it's worth, Achan is not a first round pick in adp.

[Heath]

Okay, so take him out of the conversation.

[Dave]

It's Gibbs, McCaffrey and Genti right now.

[Heath]

Gibbs. Gibbs was obviously not as good when Montgomery was healthy. Genti is a rookie coming off an extremely immense workload in college in his final season. Who else?

[Dave]

Henry McCaffrey.

[Heath]

I mean, obviously, and you know Henry at his age. So, you know, when you look at the receivers, I feel much more confident that they will stay healthy and deliver to what their production should be, barring injuries to the quarterbacks.

[Dave]

Too fair.

[Dan]

Plus you'll like the running backs that are available in rounds three, four compared to the receiver.

[Dave]

Completely different show though. I get that but just, just. I just want to. I'm just talking about who. Who's more likely to be a bust in the first round. The running.

[Dan]

I'm looking ahead when I make that first round pick.

[Dave]

All right. Tight ends. How many tight ends can we argue are bus proof?

[Jamie]

I'd say two.

[Heath]

Without injury.

[Dave]

Without injury There are no. I'm not sure. I just got this memo. There will be no injuries in 2025. It's going to be a very healthy year.

[Dan]

Someone tell Donald Parham then it's one.

[Dave]

And that is Kittle.

[Dan]

Oh, I'll say two.

[Dave]

And those Kiddle. And for who? For you, Trey McBride and Heath.

[Jamie]

McBride and Bowers.

[Dave]

Jamie, you disagree with that? You don't think McBride and Bowers are bus proof. And of course ADP matters here. Those are second round picks. Kittle. Yeah, more like a fourth round pick. I mean explain.

[Heath]

Well, if McBride's touchdowns stay the same and his other numbers come down, I mean obviously he's going to be a bust. And Bowers now has significant competition for touches in his offense by comparison. So I mean Kittle's situation got better.

[Dave]

Go ahead.

[Jamie]

My only. I don't, I don't have concerns about George Kittle being bad. I just, I think it's. It's hard to be bust proof when you never get a hundred targets. And if his efficiency is just good then he's probably not going to deliver on adp. He has to be and he has been the last two years. 11.3, 11.8 yards per target and scoring touchdowns at a 8% clip. That, that'll do it no matter how many targets you get. But we've seen plenty of years in the past where it wasn't quite that good.

[Dave]

His target pace the last three seasons, 17 game pace for Kittle, 96 targets, 97 target. But luckily last year did bounce back up to 111 target pace for Kittle when he was the number one tight end per game. And you know I think Jamie, I was definitely kind of avoiding Kittle last year because he had had this trend three straight years where his points per game had gone down. He was what, 31 last year and now he's 32. He'll be 32 in October. You know I was worried about him. Then he comes out and he averages something like 15.7 PPR fantasy points per game most in a long time. Number one tight end per game, number three tight end in PPR overall and this was with him leaving week 18 early, just barely playing in week 18. So anywho, you know what. What has changed? Just the absence of Debo and IUK for a portion of it.

[Heath]

I mean, that's obviously the biggest part of it, you know, so he may have his most targets since I don't know what season, but Certainly the last three numbers that you gave. Last three seasons that you gave.

[Dave]

Yeah. 97, 96, 111 targets. The year before that was 114 targets. I don't know that he's getting back to the 130 targets.

[Heath]

No, that would be probably a disaster for somebody else getting hurt. Now you're never coming back or not coming back till toward the end of the season. But I mean, again, like, we have some level of excitement to whatever degree for Jennings and Piersol and you know, maybe Ayuk, certainly from a ADP standpoint, people, at least last time I checked, think he's the best receiver still for the 49ers. Like, you're talking about guys that either have not done anything consistently in their careers or coming off a very significant injury. And then here's this guy who's been so tried and true for this coach, for this quarterback. Like there's. There's so much to love about the situation for Kittle.

[Dave]

Okay, let's talk about Bowers and McBride being bus proof. Heath, you say both of them are bus proof. You're the only one who said that.

[Dan]

Discuss.

[Jamie]

They could both lose a target per game and still be, in my opinion, surefire bets to be top three tight ends. And I don't have much reason to believe they would lose more than a target per game. In fact, I think there's probably more of a case that the touchdown rate improves than that the target rate drops more than a target per game for both.

[Heath]

And. And I would agree wholeheartedly with that, even though I think it could go the other way from a touchdown perspective for. Or excuse me, a production perspective for Bowers and not necessarily improving from McBride. But I can still see that happening both sides, man.

[Dave]

I don't know that I can. That we can make a case for anyone else. So I can't see Laporta being bad. So. So the thing is, he's tight end four in in our rankings and the port is tight end four and ADP, but he's actually going 72nd in fantasy pros. Dave, do you have our ADP? Where's Sam Laporta going?

[Dan]

Let me look it up.

[Jamie]

I could 100 see Sam Laporta being bad 60 seconds.

[Dave]

That's, that's, that's a little earlier than 72nd.

[Dan]

But yeah, he's going ahead of Jameson Williams. He's going ahead of Mahomes, he's going ahead of DeAndre Swift.

[Jamie]

George Pickens, it's new offensive coordinator only had 83 targets last year. Head coach can't stop talking about the Jameson Williams breakout. Like there's, there's quite a few paths to Laporta being bad.

[Dan]

Sure.

[Dave]

On pace for 88 targets which is not great. Yeah. Okay.

[Heath]

Barring injury, if you told me Flacco is the starter all season, I would say Najoku is bus proof 100.

[Dave]

Yeah. But I'm not going to tell you that Flacco is the start. Of course.

[Jamie]

And you know who might also be bust proof but it maybe it's too low to count as Hawkinson. He's gonna see eight targets a game.

[Dave]

You think so?

[Dan]

That would shock me a game.

[Jamie]

I think he's averaged 8.6 since he got to Minnesota.

[Dan]

What did he have last year? He averaged 8.7 PPR points per game last year.

[Dave]

Well, six points coming off of an.

[Jamie]

ACL in the middle of the season.

[Dave]

But there's the first time that he's played. Is this the first time he's played with Addison and Jefferson? Really? I think they were all kind of in and out of the lineup in 2023. So then you had 6.2 targets per game in 10 games last year for Hawkinson.

[Dan]

He averaged almost eight targets per game in his first five games of 2023. That was when Cousins was there. He was healthy, Jefferson was there and then his targets ballooned after that. Three games without Jefferson. Targets were still pretty good after that. So that's to your point, Heath, that he did get to that part. And if there's a suspension for Jordan Addison then yeah, Hawkinson could be a tight end. That gets you off to a hot start and then you flip them like a burger when Addison comes back. I don't think he can get any higher than like six and a half targets.

[Jamie]

Who was it that reported the. The Vikings looking to add more layup throws to their offense because everything was so down far downfield last year.

[Heath]

I believe his name was Thomas Schaefer.

[Jamie]

Thomas Schaefer. Thomas Schaefer. Never been wrong.

[Dave]

What outlet?

[Jamie]

And I do think that if they do that like those, that that's good for Hawkinson. He's going to be the guy that functions within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. So. And he's not he's being drafted. Win round eight or nine.

[Dan]

I'm not complaining about the price tag. I'm just complaining about the upside.

[Dave]

I can't do this math. 87th. That's what, round seven or eight.

[Jamie]

Early eight.

[Dave]

Really? Eight. Right, right. There's just a huge gap between the top three tight ends and then the rest in terms of average draft position. So depending on what site you look at. All right, guys. Boss proof. All right, guys, Ready to bring it home tonight? We want the cup. We want the cup.

[Jamie]

If you don't think you got enough FFT yet. About 25 minutes, I've got Dan coming on FFT Dynasty. It's. Let's play two.

[Dave]

You know, it's a great feeling. Don't tell Heath I said this. Heath sends us a text on Friday to me and Jamie, and he says, hey, I really need someone to come on the show. Are you guys available? And I wasn't available. I would have liked to have helped, but totally reminded me about the mock draft that I had completely forgotten about that was. That was going to start later that. Later that day.

[Heath]

So you want to know something else? I was asleep. I fell asleep after taking my kids to camp, and I saw Heath text. I was like, oh, crap, I have a draft.

[Dave]

Oh, he's surprised. Texts like that, when we have drafts are always welcome. I appreciate.

[Jamie]

Okay, I'll just. I'll surprise you with all kinds of things.

[Dave]

All right, everybody, thanks so much for watching, listening. We'll talk to you tomorrow.

[Heath]

Let's guess. What's Dan's background going to be? The living room. The FFT background.

[Dave]

He's been. He was on. I was on a call with him, yes. Oh, you were on that call. He did the stadium. He had the stadium background yesterday. So I think he's riding that. That old Meadowland Stadium, Giant Stadium for the World cup. And what was it again? 94 2. Whatever it was. Yeah.

[Heath]

Do you think he goes. He goes stadium.

[Dave]

I think stadium.

[Heath]

I'm gonna go the FFT background.

[Dan]

Only one way to find out.

[Dave]

Yes. Tune in.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Dave]

YouTube.com fantasy football today to watch all of our shows. Hit the live tab. If you miss any of the live episodes, they'll be archived there. All right, we'll talk to you tomorrow, and then we're off Thursday, and we'll talk to you again on Friday. But for now, we'll see you Wednesday on FNC.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Paramount Podcasts.

[Gary Parish]

Just because the college basketball season is over does not mean the fun has to stop. And it will not stop on the Ion College Basketball Podcast. I'm Matt Norlander and every week me and Gary Parish will continue throughout the off season to give you multiple shows weekly that dive into the stories, the interesting trends, what you need to know, portal comings and goings, the new coaches in new spots, and of course, as we move into the NBA draft season, we'll give you deep dives on the players to know and give you mock drafts as well. So continue to subscribe and listen because we still got the goods and really, really appreciate all you've done to help build out this podcast over the years. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts or if you want to watch us, we'd love that as well. You can subscribe to the Ion College Basketball podcast on CBS Sports College Basketball on YouTube now.