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Adam Azer
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Heath Cummings
What a play.
Dave Richard
Can you believe this?
Adam Azer
No, I can't.
Heath Cummings
It's time to dominate your fantasy league. This is gonna go the distance.
Adam Azer
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Dave Richard
Welcome.
Jamie Eisenberg
Welco.
Dave Richard
It is Wednesday, August 13th. It's Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. Last year, we called Saquon Barkley a bust. That worked out so well we're gonna double down and do it again this year. Who are the biggest busts in fantasy and what do you think out there? I have a couple of actually three Twitter polls I want to throw out there. James Cook is on the bus list, but are we going to remove him? Because this list was sent in before the news broke that James Cook signed a four year, $48 million extension with $30 million guaranteed. We'll find out. All right, Adam Azer, Heath Cummings, Dave Richard Jamie Eisenberg. Hello everybody. Let's go in that order. Heath, Dave, Jamie, give me two of your biggest busts based on average draft position, which you guys used. CBS average draft position. I'm going to also use fantasy pros. Heath, you can start. Give me two candidates.
Adam Azer
I'll go with two old running backs, Alvin Camara and Aaron Jones.
Dave Richard
Alvin Camara and Aaron Jones. Now, Camara is a guy whose ADP is quite different. So CBS versus fantasy pros. So that would be 30th overall as RB13 on CBS, 38th overall, RB15 on fantasy pros. Is he still a bust at 38th overall?
Adam Azer
I mean, he's still around higher than I want to draft him. So I think he's still about three picks higher than what our consensus rankings have him at. I just wrote a little more in depth about Camara this morning. Should be published on the site sometime today. I just think. And again he, he like Barkley last year, overcame a lot of potential problems. Camara has even more. He's a 30 year old running back, decreased efficiency over the second half of his career. Maybe one of the worst offenses in the NFL, if not the worst. And then there's this little weird thing about Kellen Moore and past catching running backs. And he has, has really moved into some, some great situations. When he took over in Dallas, zeke had averaged 5.1 receptions per game. The year before, he averaged right around three in Kelvin Moore's offense. When he took over in Los Angeles, Austin Eckler, that's five and a half catches per game for four years he averaged three and a half per game for the Chargers. And then last year, I know it was Jalen Hurts, but Saquon at Barkley averaged a career low 2.1 receptions per per game. It's been a 36% decline for those three very good running backs in their first year with Kellen Moore. And receptions are like the only thing that might keep Camara afloat.
Dave Richard
Camara, I always say this, four straight years he hasn't had a carry longer than 30 yards. Four years, that's looking at now probably 800 carries or so and he hasn't had a carry longer than 30 yards.
Adam Azer
And I think it's easy to think, you know, Camara is different. I don't know if you would say he's different than what Eckler was in his prime, but Camara is different. He's. He's had such an extensive history as a pass catching running back, but both Elliott and Eckler had more receptions per game the year before. Kellen Moore got there than Camara had last year, and both of them were right around three and a half per game the next year.
Dave Richard
Okay. Anybody? Dave? Jamie comfortable with Camara in round four?
Heath Cummings
Early.
Dave Richard
Early round four?
Heath Cummings
Yes.
Jamie Eisenberg
Late round four.
Dave Richard
Okay.
Heath Cummings
I have him ranked in round three, but it's late round three.
Dave Richard
And this is full PPR because.
Heath Cummings
Yeah.
Dave Richard
What about half?
Heath Cummings
Please make the distinction. No, he'd be late round four at the earliest. And half.
Dave Richard
Let me. I'll just tell you where Camara's finished. So I mentioned last four years. Doesn't have a run of longer than 30 yards in those four seasons. Let's see, what's. What's he averaging per carry? He's averaging 3.3. Sorry, 3.9 yards per carry over the last four years, so hasn't been good. He has finished as RB 5, 14, 8 and 6 per game in those last four seasons. All right.
Heath Cummings
Long runs, man.
Dave Richard
Well, he doesn't need them. That's the point. But if he thinks I need him.
Adam Azer
If he catches five past the game.
Jamie Eisenberg
Right.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
Which. Which he's capable of doing. Heath, I do think you laid out a nice case against him for Kellen Moore, because at first I was like, well, Kellen Moore's got a pretty good track record of leaning on his running backs. It just hasn't been a heavy amount. And I think you. You made that point crystal clear. I think if you're drafting Alvin Camaro in round four, you're drafting a much closer to his floor than his ceiling. Last year, he was 19 PPR points per game in an equally crappy New Orleans Saints offense. He's been over 17 PPR points. Three of his last four years.
Dave Richard
They were not equally crappy.
Adam Azer
They were 14th, 14th in yards, 24th in scoring.
Heath Cummings
Okay, so they could be lower. They're definitely gonna be lower in yards. They could be lower than that in scoring. Two, I do think Kellen Moore is a very good play caller. I do think he's going to lean on Alvin Kamara. I. I have no problem taking this guy in a full PPR league. Like I said, he's ranked as a round three player. Yes, that's very high. But I don't like a lot of players in round three. I've got him in round. If you get him in round four, I think that's awesome.
Dave Richard
All right. Not going to get a lot of disagreement on Aaron Jones. He's RB20 on CBS going 51st. But on Fantasy Pros, Aaron Jones is going 65th at RB23. This is someone that all three of you had on the bus list. Aaron Jones and RB23. So, okay, 51st is. No way would we take him there. Jamie, when would you take Aaron Jones?
Jamie Eisenberg
Late 60s.
Dave Richard
Okay, 70.
Adam Azer
I got him at 70 even.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I'm trying to think where I have them.
Dave Richard
All right, Dave, give me two busts.
Heath Cummings
Two guys I'm on an island for are DeAndre Swift and TJ Hawkinson. Swift does have a great opportunity in Chicago. He's had great opportunities before in Philadelphia and Detroit. I think he has one year over 13 PPR points per game in his last four. I'm pretty sure he won't be the only running back in Chicago. It's. It's. I'm sorry, it's 12.5 or 12.6 each of his last two years. He had 13.7 in 20, 22, with two with Ben Johnson as a play caller in Detroit. It's a fair point to make, but I don't like taking him in round five. I think it's just too soon. It's too rich for my blood. For a guy who might not run for a lot of touchdowns and short yardage, you're going to need him to really step up as a pass catcher. And there's just. There have been inconsistent reports about this whole offense all training camp long. I. I really. I can't wait to. To see them. I'm going there on Friday. But the offensive line's been up and down. Caleb Williams has been up and down. I have not read much on Swift. Maybe that's a good thing. But I'm. I just. I've never really gravitated toward him. I didn't gravitate toward him last year, and I. I would be nervous to take him with a top 60 pick this year.
Jamie Eisenberg
I think we have a show bet, Adam. Alvin Camara versus DeAndre Swift.
Heath Cummings
Oh, I will take that bet.
Dave Richard
I'm so. Wait, what side are you on, Jamie?
Adam Azer
Jamie's not in the bed. He's just trying to arrange bets for us.
Dave Richard
I want to be. I want him. All right. This is what Jamie is, too.
Jamie Eisenberg
Well, usually I'm the one making bets with somebody else. So I think it's fun that you guys make it, but I don't know if we've ever had a Heath versus Dave bet.
Dave Richard
Okay. Heath versus Dave. That, it's called. If you combine their names, you get death. So we're gonna do half bpr.
Heath Cummings
You're gonna feel if you draft.
Dave Richard
Oh, half pbr. Ooh. That makes things A lot more interesting.
Adam Azer
They would prefer Camara to Swift and have ppr.
Heath Cummings
I would.
Adam Azer
Okay, here we go.
Dave Richard
It is on. I love it. All right. So we did see DeAndre Swift go in the fifth round in a draft that we did last night. I wasn't it. Jamie was in it with 11 audience members. Listeners, viewers. What not. So he went in the fifth round. Heath and Jamie, are you both comfortable taking Swift in the Swift in the fifth. Swift. Swift round.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yes, very much so.
Adam Azer
I'm comfortable taking them in the fourth. I just don't have to.
Dave Richard
But yeah, yeah, second round.
Adam Azer
No second round. But I, I just think like I, I feel the same way about swift in the fifth. As Dave says about Camara in the fourth is that what's the worst Swift has finished RB24. We think he's going to be worse than that. Reunited with Ben Johnson with Roshan Johnson and Kyle Menong guy as his main competition for carries. I, I have a hard time envisioning unless he gets hurt and he could. I have a hard time envisioning how he stays healthy and is a lot worse than where he's being drafted.
Heath Cummings
Okay, so does the bet void if he misses a bunch of games or if Camara misses a bunch of games?
Dave Richard
Okay, let's. Let's do this. So it's per game, half PPR for the season.
Adam Azer
I'm willing to include injuries because I think Camara is much more likely to get injured than Swift. So. Okay, I don't think we can make. No.
Dave Richard
All right, fine. So it just. It is what it is. Whoever finishes higher, I don't like. I, I would. I would prefer to do a lot of Azer stating. But that's fine. It's your bet. It's a death bet. T.J. hawkins is the other guy, by the way. So on Fantasy pros though, DeAndre Swift is at the 5, 6 turn. He's going 61st. He's RB22 compared to 54th and RB21 on CBS. One thing you're going to notice if you compare CBS ADP to fantasy pros ADP PPR for both of them. And I don't look at fantasy pros, PPR ADP with individual positions. I look at just the overall because if you. For whatever reason, it's just different data. But running backs go a little earlier on cbs. Our leagues are a little bit more running back heavy than the fantasy pro's.
Adam Azer
Consensus Fantasy pros PPR ADP includes sleeper and I wonder if it's including any.
Heath Cummings
Best bowl it did earlier in the off season. I don't know if it does now.
Dave Richard
All right, let's get a little bit going a little bit more here with TJ Hawkinson, who is going 78th on CBS, but 65th on Fantasy Pros. And he is tight end six on Fantasy Pros and I think he's tight end seven. One, two. No, he's tight end seven. Yeah, tight end seven on. On CBS. But Dave, you have that 78th as a bust and he's actually going 13 spots earlier on Fantasy Pros. TJ Hawkinson, your quick case there.
Heath Cummings
He's barely in my top 100. If fantasy seasons lasted the first three weeks, I would be completely on board with this. I'd probably have him even higher than that. But once Jordan Addison comes back and once Justin Jefferson's good to go, and it sounds like he's going to be good to go, Hawkinson's going to be third fiddle in this offense. We saw Addison become a red zone weapon last year. We know that the Vikings are going to try and run the ball a little bit more this year. They added Jordan Mason. He could steal some touchdowns in short yardage. That was definitely an area where Hawkinson got some good numbers and he also had good volume two years ago. I don't know if he's going to get back there. We can give him a pass for last season because he was coming back from the ACL and that's fine. But I, I can't view him in the same lens as some of those other tight ends that are going after him. Evan Ingram as an example. You know that I'm bullish on Tyler Warren. I, I wouldn't take Loveland over Hawkinson but I would take Kraft over Hawkinson. I just, I'm very worried about his upside provided that everything in, in the Vikings offense with a first time starter at under center being healthy and taking away volume from them.
Dave Richard
Jamie Heath, Are we co signing on this Hawkinson bus call or are we disagreeing?
Jamie Eisenberg
Disagree.
Adam Azer
Yeah, I, I think his ADP is pretty much appropriate and I feel like I'm missing out on the potential of him being better than that more than worried about him being a bust.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yep.
Adam Azer
Especially with the way that they've talked about wanting to create more layups in this offense passing game for JJ McCarthy. I think that's targets to TJ Hawkinson and like last year was bad coming off of an acl, but a lot of it was just they didn't score any touchdowns in his final 10 games. I don't, I don't Think there's any reason to believe that's going to be the case in the coming year. And I believe he was tied for tight end one and before he tore his ACL the year before. I, I just think he's probably a top seven tight end. He's got a chance to be a top five tight end.
Dave Richard
Okay. All right, let's get Jamie's busts here. Before we do that though, I want to remind you that if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use the bonus code Fantasy when you sign up. And you're gonna get up to a fifteen hundred dollar first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how it works. Download the BetMGM app and sign up and use the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to 1500 dollars in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure that you use the bonus code Fantasy when you sign up. All right, Jamie, hit me with two bus calls.
Jamie Eisenberg
Just take the low hanging fruit. Saquon Barkley third overall, second player off, second running back off the board. And Terry McLaurin still concerned with this holdout hold in and going in the fourth round. I will not be doing that. I'll not be drafting him there.
Dave Richard
Barkley is going third overall both on fantasy pros and CBS. McLaurin is a little bit different. He's going to 40. You're not gonna like this. It's going 47th overall on CBS, going 41st overall in fantasy pro's consensus PPR. But that's. Both of those are wide receiver 19. So again, that's just the difference. CBS a little more running back heavy, consensus a little more wide receiver heavy. But wide receiver 19 for Terry McLaurin. Who's got him? Is it. Does anybody have him in the top 20 or is everybody outside of that?
Adam Azer
I still do. You do?
Jamie Eisenberg
He's 30th for me.
Heath Cummings
When do you move them down, Heath?
Adam Azer
Probably in the next week or two if nothing's changed, maybe even in the next week. But I again, I think like the James Cook signing just showed. Generally these, no matter how contentious these things get, they end with the player on the same team. That's my expectation. The, the concern for Terry McLaurin is that he misses too much practice. And right now, as of today, I think we have what, three and a half weeks until their first game. So it might be this weekend that I'm like, okay, now he can't get Three weeks worth of practice of the team. I'll ding him a little bit. If we get down into the last week of things and we're still here, then I'll probably be closer to where Jamie is.
Dave Richard
Would you guys take Tetero and McMillan or Terry McLaurin? I've still got McFellan just to stick with the initials. Would you take Tracy McGrady or Ted Roll, McMillan or Terry McClure? Would you? Okay, let's talk about Saquon Barkley in a bit because we have a question here that says. What does it say? What's the definition of a bust? Okay. Yeah, what's the definition of a bust? Saquon being a bust doesn't make sense. And then he said, maybe not second or in this case, third overall, but if he's returning first round value, what happened there? Who did that?
Adam Azer
I clicked the wrong button.
Dave Richard
Yeah. Oh, you clicked the wrong button, did you? Interesting. Wow. If Barrick Barkley's returning first round value, I can try to roll the tape. But Jamie, address this real quick here. What's the definition of a bus as it relates to Saquon Barkley?
Jamie Eisenberg
You get this question a lot. Obviously, still having Barkley as a first round pick. And I get it. It's as much of a concern as it is a bus call. So whenever you see somebody getting drafted first, second, third, and still saying they're going to finish 8, 10, 11, 12, whatever the case may be, is clearly a, a hard, hard explanation to even get to. I think just the, the, the. For me, it. There's five running backs, I would take over him, four running backs, I take over handful receivers, I would take over him. I'm just concerned that it's going to be a rough year from. I, I don't want to predict injuries, but there's a high chance for a guy that's had an injury track record that just had 480 total touches, to have the same situation happen to the guy that was first overall at the position 2023 going into 2024, and Christian McCaffrey, you know, so all the work coming back next year, all the expectations were the same and he played four games, the, the statistics obviously are not in his favor. The historical data is not in his favor. So anytime you see a running back over 400 carries, anytime you see it, running back over 400, eight touches, 450 touches, they tend to break down the following year. All the 2,000 yard rushers from one year to the next lost an average of 500 yards or more. Six of the eight were down 800 yards or more. So I'm just expecting a trend in the wrong direction for Barkley. But to be fair to the question, I don't have the balls to put him in the second round.
Dave Richard
Oh, all right, Jamie, this is not a night episode. All right. Careful there.
Jamie Eisenberg
Just being honest.
Heath Cummings
No, Tennis, tennis. He's a red zone weapon. Two years ago. What?
Dave Richard
What happened? Oh, no.
Adam Azer
Oh, no.
Heath Cummings
What happened?
Adam Azer
I'm so sorry.
Jamie Eisenberg
Take away my.
Dave Richard
And that.
Adam Azer
That is exactly how calling Saquon Barkley a bus last year felt about.
Dave Richard
That was a clip, if you missed it, of Heath trying to leave the studio during. What was it? Running backs? No, it was tight ends. We're talking about Jake Ferguson, I think, at the time, trying to leave the studio and instead ending the stream. So that was good stuff. All right, we're going to take a quick break. Dave, Jamie just gave you a lot of stats on Barkley. Dave, you have a great stat about something like 80% of them lose this much production or whatever. If you have that handy.
Heath Cummings
I have it.
Dave Richard
Bring it out and then we'll talk about where we take Barkley. And I have a Twitter poll of when the people would take Barkley because he is obviously the headliner of this bus list. We'll be right back on fft. Is this a hit it situation?
Adam Azer
It's whatever kind of adventure we want it to be.
Heath Cummings
No Streaming on Paramount plus it's an all new season of adventures. We have to stop this invasion.
Dave Richard
Get into this shit. This crew is a team. We are going to find our way.
Heath Cummings
Out of this together.
Adam Azer
Chaos.
Dave Richard
It's one in a thousand.
Jamie Eisenberg
We get it done right or don't.
Heath Cummings
Blow ourselves up along the way.
Adam Azer
I like those odds.
Heath Cummings
We'll just turn it off before we blow up. Star Trek Strange new worlds.
Dave Richard
New season now streaming on Paramount Plus.
Adam Azer
September 4th on Paramount Plus. Someone is trying to frame us until our names are clear we're fugitives from interval Like Bonnie and Clyde with better snacks. Espionage. You still as good as shot as you used to be?
Jamie Eisenberg
Better.
Adam Azer
Is there love language? We like to walk that fine line between techno thrill, romantic comedy.
Heath Cummings
We make up our own rules.
Dave Richard
NCIS Tony and Ziva.
Adam Azer
Streaming September 4th on Paramount Plus.
Dave Richard
All right, we're back. So Dave, hit me with your best stat.
Heath Cummings
Hit me with your best stat. All right, this is gonna take a minute, so everybody buckle up. Barkley is the 25th running back to get over 400 carries in a season. Of the prior 24, only three outperform their PPR. Per game average of their 400/touch year four were close enough to their PPR average from the year before. No one would complain about it. They were behind their average. You get the point. Of the remaining 17 running backs, 16 either got hurt or missed at least seven games or saw a PPR decline of at least 25% or all of the above. That means 70.8% of the running backs with at least 400 carries faded significantly the following year. Not a single one of them who was 28 years old or older did better the following year. Their average drop in points per game was 5.4. No, none of the seven saw an improvement in their PPR point per game average. Only two saw a drop lower than 5 point few 5.4 points per game. I swear I know how to read last thing. Barkley's already had two years of his career where he's had at least 350 touches or at least 250 carries in a season. The following year his numbers declined by 12% or more. I don't think anybody would complain if Saquon Barkley's numbers fell just 12% from 2024 to 2025. But I don't think you'd want that if you take him 101 overall. I would be okay with that if I'm taking him 8th overall, 9th overall, 10th overall. Yeah, that's where I'm taking Saquon Barkley. So, yeah, I don't. I don't have the volleyball or bocce balls to say that he shouldn't be around one pick. I think he's a back half of round one pick. And there's other running backs I'd rather have, including Bijan Gibbs. And then the other two I would definitely take out of him are HN and McCaffrey.
Dave Richard
I'm going to throw up the poll here. Where are you taking Saquon Barkley in a PPR league? Put it up just, just a little while ago, a couple hours ago. So only 672 votes, but picks one through three, 25%. Picks four through six, 50%. Picks seven through nine, 18%. Picks 10 through 12, 7%. So 75% are saying top six, but 50% overall picks four through six. That's where they're taking Saquon Barkley. And I'm sorry, I know Jamie and Dave are later than that. They're probably in the 7 to 9 or 10 to 12. Whereby. What about you, Heath?
Adam Azer
I think I have them sixth.
Heath Cummings
All right, so here's the play. If you think we're, we're full of crap. Find the person picking in the top six in your league and see if they don't like Saquon. And then make a trade before your draft starts so you get into the top six and you have a shot at getting Saquon.
Dave Richard
The other one was Terry McLaurin. We talked about him. So from Heath, it was Kamara and Aaron Jones Camara going in round three in CBS leagues, round four in fantasy pros. You heard different opinions there, especially from Dave. But he does not want Camara in round four. Aaron Jones is on everyone's bus list. You know, consider him maybe closer to 70th overall. DeAndre Swift was a bust mostly just for Dave. He doesn't want Swift in round five. I know Heath is comfortable with Swift in round five. Jamie, are you good with Swift in.
Jamie Eisenberg
Round five for the second time? Yes.
Dave Richard
I'm sorry. TJ Hawkinson was one that Dave kind of had just exclusively for him. We have a lot of mutual busts, which is good, you know that. But I thought, yeah, I'm glad you guys brought up the ones that you disagree on earlier in the show. And then Saquon Barkley and Terry McLaurin that we just went through, those were Jamie's busts. And you know, you heard Heath be a little bit different, especially on McLaurin. Okay. We do have some news and notes. So before we get to that though, I've got six people out there who have not responded to the FFT Open invite, who have not responded to my follow up emails. Please, you have until Monday and then I might have to remove you from the leagues. I really don't want that to happen. You so generously donated. Get in touch with me. Fantasy footballbsi.com that's the letter I. Or just look for the emails I sent you. But if you haven't accepted your invite yet to the FFT Open, you know, I'm let's do it. Let's make it happen. We're on CBS Sports Network every Monday and Wednesday, at least for the foreseeable future at 1pm Eastern. So if you're. It's not 1pm Eastern yet on Wednesday, you still have time to watch us on CBS Sports Network and we're live streaming tomorrow from, I don't know, roughly 4:15, 4:30pm Eastern until 6pm we're going to live stream the tennis match, but while that's going on, we're going to have people talking about tennis, but we're going to be answering your fantasy Questions. So Heath, you're going to be on there with Jamie.
Adam Azer
I will be there.
Dave Richard
Excellent. Tonight. Today is Wednesday. We are doing the breakouts bonanza today. So that is four different episodes with a guest on three of them. We have Jake Seeley coming on to talk quarterback breakouts at 5pm Eastern. We have J.J. zacharias in to talk running backs at 5:30. Then we're going to take a little break. Going to get some dinner. Nine o'. Clock. It's me, Dave, Jamie, Heath. If you know those guys, we're talking tight ends because you know I'm not going to bring a guest on to talk tight end breakouts. That's insulting. And then Chris Harris wants to talk about wide receivers. He's going to talk wide receiver breakouts at 9:30 so you can watch them live on YouTube. YouTube.com fantasy football today. That's all of our live streams are there or just wait until tomorrow. I'll be publishing all four of them. They're going to be about 20 minutes, 25 minutes most per each episode. But should be a lot of fun breakouts. And not just us. You're gonna hear from great guests around the industry. All right, here we go. News and notes. James Cook, four year, $48 million extension, $30 million guaranteed. Jamie, you had him on the bus list that you sent me this morning before this news broke and he was going 31st overall as RB15 fantasy pros, almost the same, 32nd overall, but RB13. Are we removing James Cook from the bus list?
Jamie Eisenberg
I will be removing him from the bus list. I will not be drafting him 31st overall though. I still think that's too soon.
Dave Richard
Okay, when would you draft him?
Jamie Eisenberg
End of the third round.
Dave Richard
All right, so three, four term, we're saying Dave Heath, James Cook. When would you take him?
Heath Cummings
Go ahead. All right, I'm the high guy on James Cook. I'll take him a little bit before the end of round three. But solid third round pick for me behind the top three quarterbacks.
Dave Richard
What about Garrett Wilson or James Cook?
Heath Cummings
Cook.
Adam Azer
Cook.
Jamie Eisenberg
Wilson.
Dave Richard
Oh, I forgot I did have a Twitter poll. When would you draft James Cook in a 12 team PPR league? First six picks of round three, 29%. Look at, this is pretty, this is pretty good poll here. The second last six picks of round three, 34%. First six picks of round four, 25%. So it's split pretty evenly from picks 25 to 42.
Adam Azer
I was going to make this point with a later poll, but I'll just go ahead and say it now. And I think it applies to the Barclay thing too. Like 29 of your fantasy league is maybe four guys, three or four guys. So it doesn't really. It's good. You did a good job here of balancing out this poll. Good job, Adam.
Jamie Eisenberg
Thank you.
Adam Azer
But the winner doesn't necessarily determine where they're more likely to go. If, if there's even 10% in the highest group, there's a chance that he owes that high because if that guy has that pick, sure.
Dave Richard
Right. But I do think it's, you know, I think it's telling that there's a pretty wide range. Like the saquon Barkley had 50%. We're voting on one of the ranges here. We have no more than 33.5%. So you can expect him anytime round three to mid round four, I guess.
Jamie Eisenberg
James Cook, it's just, it's fascinating with him with the touchdowns because everything else, literally everything else came down for him last year.
Heath Cummings
It's true.
Adam Azer
I think he's a better bust case than McLaurin if McLaurin's not holding out. Like if McLaurin comes back tomorrow. Like we've talked a lot about Terry McLaurin's touchdowns, but at least Terry McLaurin was the same guy. Like James Cook's, everything looked worse and was just made up for by the touchdowns.
Dave Richard
I love James Cook. I love him and I don't want to monopolize this show because I think people want to hear your, your busts. But I am vehemently against any bad talk about James Cook. He is the number one running back on the Buffalo Bills and it's unusual because he played about 50% of the snaps. I, I know all the numbers came down last year, but like the catches and the touches on that. But there's no reason why they can't go up a little bit this year. They are a very run heavy team. They've gotten a lot more run heavy since they changed offensive coordinators inside the five yard line and near the goal line. So even though Josh Allen is going to be a factor there, James Cook is also going to be a factor there. And I think the case I have for him, so I could just try to find it here where he was in 20, 23. 2023, he was running back 19 per game and he scored six touchdowns. So I know that he had touchdown, he has touchdown regression coming. But I mean if he can just score 10 touchdowns, I don't see how he's not a top 15 running back. So that's oh I think that's, I.
Jamie Eisenberg
Think that's absolutely fair.
Dave Richard
Right. So I don't think he's gonna be a bust in round three, I think, I mean, he may not win you your league, but I think he's a very safe pick in round three.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I don't disagree with that. It's a matter of, again, who you're comparing him to. And, you know, I think when you start to look at it, it's probably, I think a lot of people will say Kyron, you know, through Ken Walker and Hampton and, and those guys, you know, I think they would have Camara in there, Heath might have Swift in there. You know, just looking at those, those bunched up running backs, I think what, you know, for me it's Trevion and, and Harvey, like, where's the upside versus what the downside is? And so for the snapshare to be better, then I think everything else would be better for him. So will they be more competitive games where they're going to use them a little bit more? How much did they like Ray Davis? How much did this window of opportunity that Davis got over the last two weeks of Cook not practicing maybe increase the likelihood that they're going to give him more work, which is some of the things you're hearing out of Buffalo. And then it's the touchdown regression, you know, so you say he scored six touchdowns, four of those were receiving.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Jamie Eisenberg
So he had four rushing touchdowns combined in the first two years of his career. Then that spikes to 16. And so to Heat's point, like if the touchdowns do regress, as we're maybe projecting for McLaren, if it goes from 16 to 8 or 16 to 6, like, and then maybe still gets the four receiving touchdowns, if you want to give him that Adam to get into 10, like, that's pretty scary.
Dave Richard
I don't think so. I think 10 touchdowns will be fine for a third round pick, especially one.
Heath Cummings
Who you need is you need his rushing efficiency to go up and you.
Dave Richard
Need his average 4.9 yards per carry. Average 4.7. That's the thing.
Jamie Eisenberg
He's volume needs to go up.
Dave Richard
He is super efficient.
Adam Azer
Yeah. What if you take away. So he scored 18 touchdowns last year, right?
Heath Cummings
Yes, 18.
Adam Azer
So if he scores 10, he's losing eight touchdowns.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Adam Azer
48 total fantasy points.
Dave Richard
Yeah. What's that thing?
Adam Azer
He played 16 games, so three points a game.
Dave Richard
Two and a half.
Adam Azer
So he would have averaged 13.7 fantasy points per game last year. Would have finished in between Aaron Jones and DeAndre Swift with 10 touchdowns.
Dave Richard
Yeah. I don't know. But if he didn't score, like he had a lot of long runs. He had. He had some long touchdown runs. So in theory, if he doesn't have those long touchdown runs, he probably gets more carries or more catches. Right?
Heath Cummings
I. I think. I think it is going to come down to the touchdowns and how many he scores. The 18 touchdowns, obviously the most by any running back. In the Josh Allen era, he had nine games with 15 plus PPR. How many of those games did he score a touchdown in? That's your trivia of the day.
Dave Richard
Nine.
Heath Cummings
Nine is correct. Every single one of them. And he had almost 18 PPR points in eight of the nine. So they keep finding ways to get him in the end zone. And if they do give him a little bit more work, we know the efficiency is already good. If that somehow gets better, it's got to be one or the other. Or both. Both would be good. But I'm fine with him in round three. I think if once it gets to 30th overall in your draft, the light.
Dave Richard
Screen on James Cook, 28th in plays last year for the Bills, I think that's a way to help solve this problem, is that they're not one of the lowest in the NFL because they had the fifth highest run rate. Not all that was Cook, obviously, but they just didn't run a lot of place. All right, well, we've set our piece back to the news and notes. Najee Harris is practicing and could be ready for week one. Chargers coordinator Greg Roman said Omarion Hampton's going to split carries with another running back in week one. He's going to split snaps even if it's not Najee Harris. You guys taking Hampton or Cook?
Jamie Eisenberg
Cook.
Heath Cummings
Now it's Cook.
Dave Richard
Okay, Hampton. Is Hampton the second highest rookie running back for you?
Heath Cummings
Yes.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yep.
Adam Azer
I've got Henderson higher.
Dave Richard
Okay.
Heath Cummings
He's the second highest rookie.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Heath Cummings
Regardless of position.
Dave Richard
Ramondre Stevenson missed practice. Don't know what that's about. Could be nothing. Malik Neighbors has a shoulder injury. He's been out a bit. AJ Brown was limited the last couple days, I think, but he missed practice today. Or at least it's practice is ongoing as we record this. But A.J. brown has a hamstring issue. Ken Walker returned to practice. Mason Taylor, jets rookie tight end, he returned to practice with a high ankle sprain, so he barely missed any time. That was interesting, Kevin.
Jamie Eisenberg
I think just to keep in mind, though, with Najee and with Mason Taylor, they're still doing individual work, not doing teamwork.
Dave Richard
I knew that about Najee. I did not realize that about Mason Taylor. Kevin Fishbane of the Athletics said that Caleb Williams has struggled with consistency and accuracy during training camp. Not not a great camp for him. Matthew Stafford still not back at practice. San Francisco and Juwan Jennings are not close to an agreement according to the San Francisco standard. Saints left guard Trevor Penning has turf toe, which could be a multi week absence. And packers news Christian Watson likely to start the season on the PUP list, which is not a surprise. He's recovering from a torn acl. And Romeo Dobbs left practice on Tuesday with a back issue. Let's get back into the busts. So Saquon Barkley was was one we already talked about. How about Lamar Jackson? He's going 17th overall on CBS. He's going 21st overall on fantasy pros. This is a Dave Jamie Heath bust in terms of 17th overall. And you know what I'm going to do? I'm just going to just going to reference last night's draft.
Jamie Eisenberg
Is it worse that Alan's going 18th overall though?
Heath Cummings
Yeah, both are too soon for us and this is where everybody just needs to pay attention. We're not saying that they're going to have bad years. There's just other players that we'd rather have at other positions rather than these quarterbacks.
Jamie Eisenberg
It just seems like, you know, if Alan just won the MVP and had, I don't say down fantasy season, but he obviously was not the best fantasy quarterback and Lamar just had an amazing fantasy season and they're going so close to each other. You're getting a little bit of a discount on Jay Daniel, at least on our site. Getting a discount on Jane Daniels is going 32nd overall and then you're getting a extreme discount. Like if you're just expecting, you know, year over year to somewhat be replicated. The, the hugest, the biggest discount is, is Baker. If you're just looking at it from where he's going comparatively to where he finished now, nobody's expecting him to finish in the same spot, which is why he's not ranked there. But like I just don't get it's almost for me more Allen than it is Lamar because I I feel more comfortable that Lamar can do what he did last year and Alan, I feel more comfortable that both guys will replicate what they did last year if that makes sense.
Adam Azer
I I mean and one thing to know is like this happens every year we we knew happen. We get to mid August and we have this great tracker on our ADP that shows who's Moving what? Directions. Jamie writes an article about it every week and if you look at the quarterback ADP page, it is universal. Green arrows up.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yep.
Adam Azer
Seven spots for Jackson, nine spots for Allen, seven for Burrow, seven for Daniels, nine for Hertz, eight for Mahomes, 12 for May heal Field. Like across the board, all quarterbacks are on a screaming rush to the start of the draft and we just don't think that you should play with that.
Jamie Eisenberg
I will say just in, in defense of that, we do not separate super flex and one quarterback leagues. So whatever percentage of people playing super flex on our site is going to influence the quarterback ADP getting pushed up.
Dave Richard
So when are you guys comfortable taking Jackson and Allen? And also Jamie, after you answer that, I want to get you to clarify what you were saying about the replicating the stats. I didn't quite understand what you were saying, but when are you guys taking Alan and Jackson?
Heath Cummings
28.
Adam Azer
28.
Dave Richard
All right, Jamie, what were you saying? Because you, if you think that if.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I think that Jackson's more likely to replicate what he did last year at his number and Allen is most likely to replicate what he did last year at his number as well.
Dave Richard
And they were five points different in six per passing touchdown leagues. I mean Lamar Jackson, 41 touchdowns, four interceptions. It's kind of hard to expect him to, to score 30 points.
Jamie Eisenberg
Not necessarily just in terms of the exact same thing, but just I think Jackson is going to be the clear cut, number one fantasy quarterback.
Adam Azer
This, this is the, the, the poll that I wanted to say. What I said earlier, like if 16 of your league is okay taking Lamar Jackson in the first two rounds, that means there's two people they're gonna have to pass on him twice that feel comfortable doing it.
Dave Richard
Yesterday Josh Allen went in the first round or second round, Second round, Lamar Jackson went in the third round. This poll says, when would you draft Lamar Jackson in a 12 team league? Round one, 4%, round two, 12.5% round three, 50.6% round four or later, nearly 33%. Most of the votes are in round three or four. But you're right, there are people that would be comfortable taking him in round one, some in round two. If he scores 30 points per game, he should be maybe the first pick in fantasy. But you know, but he's already done that once and then not really come close to that, that in like the next three years.
Jamie Eisenberg
The, the, the counter to obviously taking quarterbacks early is which quarterbacks you're going to, you know, pivot to. And if you're just looking at last year, there were five guys that finished basically drafted or not even selected after pick 100 overall or later.
Dave Richard
But. And I just want to bring up one more thing here. Jaden Daniels, you're not talking about him as a bust. You could definitely look at Josh Allen's points per game. Oh, oh, you know what? I made a mistake when I said Allen was five points per game worse than. Than Jackson, because I forgot that included playing one snap in week 17. It was a lot closer than that. But Josh Allen. What's that? Week 18. Not week 17. Sorry.
Heath Cummings
Yeah. 2.9, if you exclude week 18.
Dave Richard
Okay, thank you. Josh Allen's best seasons came with Stefan Diggs being amazing. I don't. I don't know how the absence of Terry McLaren or a slow start from Terry McLaren, like, how does that not affect Jaden Daniels? Should we be more concerned about that? We keep talking about It From a McLaurin standpoint, hardly ever from a Daniel standpoint. I know he rushes, but doesn't that. Doesn't McLaurin matter to Jaden Daniels?
Jamie Eisenberg
The receiving core is pretty bad without him there.
Dave Richard
Yeah.
Jamie Eisenberg
You know, Debo's apparently in great shape now and looks like he's going to have a pretty prominent role, which hopefully will be awesome for Daniels. But you're right, Adam. I mean, you know, you get past those two guys and it's, you know, Noah Brown and Luke McCaffrey and, you know, a bunch of guys that are, you know, hoping to make plays for them that they're a little bit concerned about. At least after you. You saw what the preseason game looked like where McLaren and Debo didn't play. So, Zachary, it's clearly going to have a role, but he's in his mid-30s. You know, Ben Senate I don't think is ready to be a significant playmaker. Austin Eckler is in his early 30s. Like, you know, all their pass catchers are. Are older for the most part. So, yeah, there probably should be a little bit more concerned with Daniels, but you said it like his running is going to hopefully give him a floor that a lot of quarterbacks can't match. And then if he's able to cobble together his passing stats with whoever is catching passes from him. But, yeah, it probably is worth a look of just, you know, reevaluation, at least of Daniels vs. Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurst, the two quarterbacks going after him. And in our adp, Daniels is going fourth, Burrow is third.
Dave Richard
Oh, wow. And. And our ADP is mostly Six point per passing touchdown leagues. I'm not saying I would. I don't think I wouldn't do that. I mean, I don't think any of you would do that. But it's at least worth asking the question.
Jamie Eisenberg
Last year, you know, as great as we're hyping up Daniels, you know, Burrow is better.
Dave Richard
He sure was. All right, let's go to, let's go to the next one here. Bree Hall. So Bree hall is RB14 on CBS going 31st. This is a Jamie Bus call. Bree hall is also RB14 on fantasy pros and he's going 33rd. So this is one where the ADP is nearly identical mid round three for Breeze Hall, RB14. Jamie's saying he's a bust at this price. Dave Heath, do you agree or disagree of Breeze Hall? Round three, mid round three.
Heath Cummings
I'm good with it.
Adam Azer
It's like a half round earlier than I'm okay with, but I, I've got him in round three.
Dave Richard
Okay.
Heath Cummings
I've got them right on the three, four turn. But if you wanted to take them, then I. There are too many names in front of them that I, I just think that there's not a huge difference.
Dave Richard
Jamie, go ahead. What's your best case for Breeze Hall?
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, every. Everything that's come out of their mouth, including his mouth about him not being their guy, is starting to play itself out right now. Whether it happens in the season remains to be seen, but they're going to use multiple running backs. Whether it's going to be two guys or three guys, they're going to use multiple running backs. Then you factor in Justin Field. They want to run the ball. All four of these guys are going to have an opportunity to be part of this rushing attack, which should be great. Hopefully that benefits pre Salt, but you look at the way that he finished last season, you look at the situation again that's unfolding in front of us, this team may not be that great in terms of scoring touchdowns and he has five rushing touchdowns each of the last two seasons. I don't think he's getting over 50 receptions which he's done each of the last two years. So if his receiving numbers come down, could feel more like a trap back. I think round three is just way too soon. I still have him as number two running back. For me, I'm not taking to the back end around four though. You look at some of the names on the other side of the page here. Based on our PPR rankings, I would take Chuba over him I think that's easy. Hampton and Walker, I would take Camaro over him. I would take Henderson over him. I would take Harvey over him. I take Connor over him. And again to the point where I would probably take DeAndre Swift over him. If it continues to play itself out this way, has it as it's unfolding. So I just. I think I'm just out on Bristol altogether.
Dave Richard
Okay. Anybody want to argue against that or should we?
Heath Cummings
How many games do you think he will have 15 or more touches in this year?
Jamie Eisenberg
I would hope most. But what are those 15 touches, though?
Heath Cummings
Well, I mean, they could. They could come obviously as 10 carries and five catches or 15 carries.
Jamie Eisenberg
If he's getting 10 carries a game, he is a huge bust in round three.
Dave Richard
Sure.
Heath Cummings
Absolutely.
Dave Richard
He's.
Heath Cummings
Last year. The point I was trying to make is he had 10 games last year with 15 plus touches and he averaged 19.3 PPR points per game on those 10.
Jamie Eisenberg
Four of his last nine games last year he was 10 and a half PPR points or less.
Heath Cummings
He got hurt and. And that changed the way that his season ended. Weeks 11, he was averaging 16.7 points per game.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I would take the. I would extra. Take the under. By. By. I don't know, 30, 40 of that.
Heath Cummings
Under of 19. Of course. What about 15 under? You're obviously thinking under. I do love getting some Braille and Allen late. I thought Allen looked better than Breeze in their preseason game. Not that Breeze played a lot. He played three carries or three snaps. He barely played. But he. Breeze missed Hope Lanes and I don't know. I'm not sure about just how good he'll be. That's why I kind of couched it at the 3, 4 turn. But whether I get Breeze hall or not, getting Braille and Allen, what's his adp? I think it's in the double digits. Love that. Don't mind starting the year with that guy on my bench.
Dave Richard
Here's a question. Oh, sorry. Go ahead, go ahead.
Adam Azer
I would just say a couple things is one, like, he didn't play very much because I think he came out when Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson did, which is encouraging in my opinion. Two, if we're going to believe the coaching staff in terms of how they're going to use a lot of running backs. I think we should also believe the coaching staff when they keep saying over and over and over again that he's gonna have a huge role in the passing game.
Heath Cummings
Yes.
Dave Richard
And they've done that.
Heath Cummings
There's an article that I read about it 5 snaps, 3 runs, solid speed, no burst is what I wrote in my notes along with Mr. Gigantic Lane.
Adam Azer
And I just wouldn't like, for a guy that we've seen in the NFL for three years now, I wouldn't make too many skill assessments based on three on three carries.
Heath Cummings
Hell yeah. Of course not. No.
Dave Richard
But he hasn't been a very good rusher two straight years and one of them he was coming off a torn acl. According to Next Gen Stats, Breece Hall's rush yards over expected per attempt has dropped from 1.4 to 0.7 to 0.4. That's from ESPN via Next Gen Stats. He needs to be better. I don't know that needs to be back to what he was in 2022, 5.8 yards per carry. If he can get to 4.5 in 2023, that's great. Last year was 4.2. But he is, he has not played as well as what we saw in 2022.
Adam Azer
I do think that, that you just highlighted like I would agree he has to run better than he did last year. That rush yards over expectation expected is one of the least sticky stats and you just showed it year to year for running backs. It's not predictive of fantasy points. It does a great job of telling us how guys ran last year, but it does not do a very good job of telling us how they're going to run in the following year.
Dave Richard
All right, next bust is another Jamie call, but I think we might have, might have some agreement here. It's Patrick Mahomes, not necessarily as QB6, but 48th overall. Jamie and I were talking last night during the draft that we really like Patrick Mahomes in round six. And I said, you know, he's been around QB11 per game two straight years. If you get him in round six and he delivers that, that's not that bad. I mean, you're going to be disappointed, but it's not so bad if that's his floor and then obviously they want to get more explosive, throw the ball downfield. Obviously we know his ceiling is the best player in football, But Jamie says 48th is too early for Patrick Mahomes. That's the four or five turn. Dave and Heath. Heath, I'll go to you first. Do you agree or disagree with Mahomes? That is a bust at 48th.
Adam Azer
I mean, I think that the, the first and easiest thing to say is I agree with Jamie that I'm not taking Patrick Mahomes at pick 48. I'm also not taking Baker Mayfield at pick 59 or Bo Nix at pick 72 or Kyler Murray at pick 81. Like almost every quarterback in that range is being drafted higher now. Dak would be the exception. He's at 83. It's almost easier if you're looking at our QB ADP to find like, who are the four guys that you think are not being drafted around and a half before they should be.
Dave Richard
By the way, the cbs, ADP and the fantasy pros. ADP are very similar with the quarterbacks that you just mentioned with Mahomes. Baker, Bo Nix, Kyler Murray. So it's not just a CBS thing. All right, when are, when do you. In terms of your overall rankings, guys.
Heath Cummings
You have Patrick Mahomes where around behind ADP.
Dave Richard
So five, six, turn.
Adam Azer
Yep.
Dave Richard
Jamie.
Jamie Eisenberg
In the 60s. So into round six, anything you want to add? I think just the one thing that's interesting. You know, he talked about how all the arrows are going up for the quarterbacks, the arrows continuing to stay up for Patrick Mahomes while the arrow for Rashi Rice is going down. So people are obviously running away from Rashi Rice but still drafting Mahomes as if Rice is going to be there. At least that's the way it feels.
Dave Richard
All right, let's take a. Did we take a second break?
Jamie Eisenberg
No.
Dave Richard
Well then we're long overdue for that. Let's take also break. Yeah, go ahead. No, no, go ahead.
Adam Azer
I was just gonna say, like in relation to the quarterback ADP we've been talking about, I've said several times on the show that Jared Goff is one of the best picks in fantasy. If the rest of the lions are okay at ADP, that has quickly deteriorated and he's up 23 spots since the last update and he's now a round eight pick.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, it was another one that I thought of also, but not in round eight.
Dave Richard
All right, let's take another break. Here we go. We'll come back and talk about DJ Moore, Joe Mixon, Sam Laporta, Zay Flowers after this support for this podcast and the following message comes from America's Navy.
Heath Cummings
The Navy offers new graduates, hands on training and experience in careers like computer.
Dave Richard
Science, aviation and medicine.
Heath Cummings
Plus education and sign on bonuses.
Dave Richard
Parents help your grads start their career today@navy.com you say you'll never join the Navy, never climb Mount Fuji on a port visit or break the sound barrier. Joining the Navy sounds crazy. Saying never actually is. Learn why@navy.com America's Navy forged by the sea. Let's Talk about the biggest mystery in fantasy DJ Moore. Never know what to expect from this guy. This is where he's finished per game in full PPR in his last six seasons. 14th, 26th, 26th, 36 9th and 27th. That is outside the top 24 in four of his last six seasons and five of seven seasons overall. He is going as wide receiver 22 in CBS 54th overall. He's actually going DJ Moore 48th overall on Fantasy Pro's consensus wide receiver 20. So Jamie, you have him as a bust 40, 54th overall and wide receiver 22.
Jamie Eisenberg
I'm just concerned about this Bears offense and the passing game. You know you alluded to this, how Caleb Williams is performing and if he's not going to be the slot receiver, which it doesn't appear like he's going to be the primary slot receiver, then will he be able to survive With Caleb Williams spreading the ball around with the addition of Luther Burden, with the addition of Colston Loveland, with obviously a better run game, whatever you think of DeAndre swipe, it's going to be better than what it was a year ago just because of the offensive line and the coaching staff. So can DJ Moore continue to produce at a high enough level or exceed the level that he was at last year? And clearly there were two different versions of DJ More. There was the beginning part of the season, then there was a coaching change and how that sort of unfolded for him. Maybe, you know, putting him in the backfield and getting some manufacturer touches different ways will help. But I'm just, it was more like just looking at some of the receivers going behind him and you see the list on our site here based on adp. I would rather have Cortland Sutton, I'd rather have at this point George Pickens, depending on the situation, the Rashi Rice. I'm going to take him over him clearly, but just put Chiefs receiver ahead of him. I'd rather have McMillan ahead of him. I'd rather have at this point Travis Hunter ahead of him because I think there's more upside. So it's just starting to move DJ Moore down and and further back and he's now in the wide receiver three territory for me. So I'm just not taking him as the 22nd receiver off the board and I think that ADP is a little.
Dave Richard
Bit too high and we good or anyone want to chime in? DJ Moore?
Adam Azer
I've pretty much got him where he's being drafted. Like I I understand the concerns about the offense and I think the bigger Concern for me is the pecking order. The last six seasons of DJ Moore's career, his team has ranked 28th, 18th, 20th, 29th, 24th, 20th in scoring. He's never been on a league average offense except for his rookie year. So I think he's a low end wide receiver too. And if you decide you're going to move Luther Burden way up your rankings because he has had some positive reports recently, then D.J. moore falls.
Heath Cummings
I want everybody to think of the number of targets per game they expect from DJ Moore. And so if you think he's going to be like the number one guy in Chicago, start at seven and work your way up. If you think he's not going to be that, you start at seven and you work your way down. You got your number in your head. Good. In 2023 with Fields, he averaged 8.2 targets per game. That really helped him put up some nice fantasy numbers as it did last year. Once Shane Waldron was out of there 8 games, 9.3 targets per game, his ADOT was 5.7. He averaged 17.3 PPR points per game. I think he's the easy solution for Caleb Williams to just throw a bunch of short passes. Let DJ Moore make a play after the catch and let Odunze and Burden run a little bit further downfield. Let Loveland run over the seam and let DJ Moore be the, the steady hand and the guy that Caleb Williams can lean on. It sounds great coming out of my mouth. I don't know if that's what the Bears are actually going to do, but. And I don't know if Caleb is even going to be able to like register all that and then be able to throw effectively and on time, because that's been an issue. So for now, he's in the wide receiver two range, low end, wide receiver two range. The more I get excited about McMillan. Once we know about Rice's suspension, Jamie's right about that. He's going to be easy to add. He really should be in that range of Pickens. Jameson Terry's going to move ahead of him. Terry McLaurin's going to move ahead of him. If McLaurin signs really soon, that puts him right in that, you know, high end, wide receiver 3 range. But if he's going to get a bunch of short area targets, I think he can pay off at that value. So 50th overall is when I'd say green light on D.J.
Dave Richard
Moore.
Adam Azer
I, I think all three Bears wide receivers and Colston Loveland probably are just kind of Lottery tickets and more is the most proven. And you decide which one you want to place the. Like, take that risk.
Heath Cummings
So the problem with that is, when's the last time you felt good about buying a lottery ticket? At 50th overall?
Jamie Eisenberg
That's probably exactly right. He's the most expensive. So if you're going to take pieces of this offense, you got to commit to him much sooner than the other three guys.
Dave Richard
Yeah. And nobody.
Heath Cummings
I do think he's the best one.
Dave Richard
Does anybody draft Caleb Williams ever? He's going 120th.
Jamie Eisenberg
Not anymore.
Adam Azer
No, I haven't drafted him a couple of times. 120th is a little high, but he never goes that high in our grips.
Dave Richard
All right, we got a controversial one next. Joe Mixon. All three of you so controversial. All three of you agree. Joe Mixon is a bust at 58 overall, RB23. On fantasy pros, Joe Mixon is 65th overall, and he's RB24. If he's a bust at 58, fine. Is Joe mixing a bus at 65 in round six?
Jamie Eisenberg
Yes.
Adam Azer
Today he might be a bust anywhere. Like, until he gets healthy, that it just keeps going down because he's got to get healthy.
Jamie Eisenberg
We haven't heard anything.
Dave Richard
We did. I mean, we haven't heard anything recently, but we heard there's a chance he's.
Jamie Eisenberg
Ready for week one, but not since the initial injury popped up. And D' Amico Ryan's got defensive about it. Like, that was July 26th.
Dave Richard
Yeah. Today Damian Pierce is back at practice, by the way, splitting reps. First team reps with Nick Chubb. All right.
Heath Cummings
What a dream team.
Dave Richard
When are you. Well, that's the thing. Like, Mixon's gonna. Gonna walk in and be the best guy, you know, so he was so good last year. So when would you.
Heath Cummings
Can he walk? Is that confirmed?
Dave Richard
When would you take him?
Jamie Eisenberg
He's gonna scooter in.
Dave Richard
When would you take.
Heath Cummings
Where would I take Joe Mixon? He's in the 70s for me. 75th overall.
Jamie Eisenberg
Wow.
Dave Richard
Okay.
Adam Azer
Yeah, he's. These around 75 for me as well. We all. We all agree on this one. Can I rewind for a second on the Bears one? Because Thomas put something in the chat that I thought was really interesting, and it's a good point. Caleb Williams, total pass yard prop is 3,600 yards, 3,625. These are all pretty much lower than if they play 17 games pretty much universally. If you go through anybody's projections and the props, the projection's higher because they have to factor in some risks, the guy misses some time. That's 400 yards higher than Drake Mace.
Jamie Eisenberg
Wow.
Adam Azer
That's 300 yards higher than Kyler Murray's 150 yards higher than Jordan Love.
Dave Richard
Wow.
Heath Cummings
For reference, how many yards did he throw for last year? I have it. If you don't.
Adam Azer
Well, just go ahead and say it.
Heath Cummings
3541 yards in 17 games.
Adam Azer
So this is saying that he would like. That's probably more generally, you can guess it's a two game average of expected miss. So they expect. If he plays 17 games, he's going to be at 4, 000, I think.
Heath Cummings
Could I. Could I say something completely preposterous?
Dave Richard
No.
Heath Cummings
If the Bears stink, do they possibly turn to Tyson Bajan?
Dave Richard
I. That's. We're not planning.
Jamie Eisenberg
Only if he's. If he stinks. Like he's got to be pick six across the board every week.
Dave Richard
Let's go to our next bust here. Yes. Okay.
Heath Cummings
I'm just saying.
Dave Richard
All right. Sam Laporta is a Dave and heath bust at 59th overall tight end four. He's 53rd overall in tight end four on fantasy pros. Sam Laporta, Heath. Why is that a bus pick late round five.
Adam Azer
I mean I. I've done the same.
Dave Richard
Okay.
Adam Azer
Lion stick all year long, but mostly it's just like Monroe St. Brown's a top five 10 wide receiver. Jameer Gibbs is going to play wide receiver more and catch more passes. Isaac Tesla is demanding a role in the offense. Jameson Williams is going to have his biggest role ever. And Sam Laporta had 83 targets last year.
Dave Richard
Okay.
Heath Cummings
How many did he have in his last six games? What was his average in those last six?
Adam Azer
I'm sure. Yeah.
Jamie Eisenberg
I felt like there was a health.
Heath Cummings
Issue that slowed him down earlier in the year. I just feel like not only are there these other mouths to feed, but there's just been so much more buzz about the receivers and Gibbs. You saw Montgomery. There's a red zone weapon. I just, I have a hard time believing that Laporta can have the same type of role and like consistency with those other players there. He. To me, he's in round six.
Dave Richard
LaPorta was on pace for 130 targets in his last six games. In those six games, Jared Goff averaged 40 passes per game and Golf was on pace for 5,553 yards, 45 touchdowns.
Heath Cummings
Sounds reasonable.
Dave Richard
Yeah. So. But. But it is worth noting that Sam Laporta had a 20% target share in the last six games and he had the Most end zone targets on the team. And Jameson Williams had a 17.4% target share in those last six games. And he had five fewer red zone targets and two fewer green zone targets and two fewer end zone targets than Sam Laporta. So Laporta was out targeting Williams down the stretch. Was it a health issue? Maybe early? I don't know if we can say was a health issue for the first 10 or 11 games. 10 games for LA Porta, but he did pick it up. They all picked it up down the stretch. All right, next bust on the list is why don't we stick a tight end and go to Travis Kelsey. So if laporta is going 59th and that's too early, Kelsey's going 67th. Dave, you say that's too early. Jamie, do you agree with that, that Kelsey, do you agree with this bus call of Kelsey at 67th tight end 5?
Jamie Eisenberg
I take out Andrews of this group and I look at Laporta, Kelsey, Hawkinson and Najoku and whatever order you like them, they're going to be the mid range tight ends. And so it's just a matter of at what point in the draft. You know, Dave says about quarterbacks, I think the same thing with these tight ends, like if you don't like the other players on the board and you need to fill that position and you think that these guys have top five upside. Look, Kelsey's gonna have to do a lot of historic things. He's gonna have to have the most receptions at a tight end at this age. He did it last year. Can he do it again? He's gonna have to overcome the pitfalls of last season. There's still a lot to like about him. Losing weight, getting in better shape. Came back down to South Florida, worked out with the guy last. Was it 20, 21? Adam, when he had his last down season and bounced back down season?
Dave Richard
Not, not like last year.
Jamie Eisenberg
But yeah, it was the same thing. He came back to. To where he was the most, you know, comfortable. And this whole article on GQ about it, talking about the trainer that he works out with in Tony Valani, I think just the. If you think he's the fourth or fifth best tight end, this is the range you have to take him. So do I like the adp?
Adam Azer
No.
Jamie Eisenberg
Do I think he's a bus in this range? If we're gonna say that, I think I say about all of them, to be honest with you. So this is where I think you just have to sort of pull the trigger on. I don't I don't hate it.
Dave Richard
No, but not in a Joker, right? Where's Najoku going? Isn't he.
Heath Cummings
You can get Najoku later. And I like.
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh, I guess it's probably our site because of where we have him ranked and probably projected.
Dave Richard
83Rd now.
Jamie Eisenberg
You don't see that anywhere else.
Dave Richard
83Rd for Nijoku on CBS, 90th for Nijoku on Fantasy Pros, behind Evan Ingram on Fantasy Pros. I gotta say, look, I. I didn't want to bring this up, but you brought up Travis Kelsey, and I just feel like I have to say it. I would call Happy Gilmore to a bust. And Travis. Travis Kelsey did not help that regard. Yeah, I enjoy. It was a late round pick. It was a lateral pick. It performed like a late round pick. So I guess, like, it's.
Jamie Eisenberg
It's one of those things where there's nostalgia to it. And so I didn't expect it to be a good movie. I thought it was, you know, entertaining for a few hours.
Heath Cummings
Perfect. Yeah, exactly.
Dave Richard
It was entertainment for 30 minutes.
Adam Azer
I don't know why we would start evaluating Adam Sandler movies. Like, we're trying to choose who's going to win awards or something. Like, just sit down, watch the movie, laugh a few times, and you're done.
Heath Cummings
It's just the fact that it wasn't a complete disaster made it a huge win.
Jamie Eisenberg
But even if it was a complete disaster, like, I mean, you know, you got to see.
Heath Cummings
Yeah, if I'm sitting there for two hours and I don't laugh one time, that's a complete disaster. I laughed a bunch.
Dave Richard
I didn't laugh.
Heath Cummings
I laughed.
Dave Richard
I don't know.
Heath Cummings
Lundquist stole the show.
Dave Richard
I didn't find that funny. Okay. I really felt like it could have.
Heath Cummings
Been a bad movie Stuff indeed.
Dave Richard
I really felt like I've given a better movie if they had funny actors in it instead of celebrities making cameos. Like Post Malone just wasn't funny. That could have been a funny role. Travis Kelsey wasn't funny. That could have been a funny role. I'm sorry to say it just. He should have.
Heath Cummings
You didn't laugh at Eminem didn't make you laugh?
Dave Richard
No, I thought Eminem was horrible. I hated that. I hated that.
Heath Cummings
Oh, that was hilarious.
Dave Richard
It was. It could have been. But he. But they should have had an actor do it. This is ridiculous. All right. Zay Flowers.
Heath Cummings
He's an actor.
Dave Richard
Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews. I mean, that is a good point. I. I didn't see 8 miles, but apparently he was good. In that Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews are both on this. You haven't seen eight Mile. No, I know. I'd like to.
Heath Cummings
To be fair. It was like the role he was born to play.
Dave Richard
That's very true. Flowers is going 66th overall as wide receiver 25. He's 60th on fantasy pros as wide receiver 26. 6. But let's call Zay Flowers around 6 pick. And if you listen to wide Receivers Preview Part 2, this was a guy we were doing the draft o meter and he was pretty low on, you know, being excited to draft him in round six. And then Mark Andrews, 77th overall as tight end six. All of you have Andrews as a bust there. So I think if we focus on Flowers here, I made the case that he had the same amount of targets per game basically as Devonte Smith. The difference was Smith was on pace for 10 touchdowns, flowers was on pace for. Well, flowers had four and. Which is weird because what did the Ravens threw like 17 more touchdowns than the Eagles or something like that. But I don't know. I mean, Jacob loves Zay Flowers and the metrics are really good. Is it just touchdowns that hold him back as a mid round six pick, Heath?
Adam Azer
Pretty much. I mean, I've got. I'm probably the wrong guy to ask because I don't have Zay Flowers as a bus and I've got him in the end of round six. So I think he's pretty appropriately valued if he happens to have like. I don't think the touchdowns are super predictive year over year, especially at this stage of his career. So if he has a James Cook season, you know, one of the best picks in fantasy.
Dave Richard
All right.
Heath Cummings
I wrote a whole thing on why you shouldn't reach for Zay Flowers. And it starts with the fact that the Ravens are one of the most run heavy offenses. And they've consistently been that obviously with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. Listen to this. In the Last decade, only four qualifying wide receivers, 50 plus targets in a season have finished top 12 in PPR points per game. On teams that threw 31 or fewer passes per game, only 18 wide receivers less than two per year have finished top 24 in PPR points per game on teams with that same low pass rate. Yeah, this is. So volume is a problem for Zay Flowers. And then you know what the Ravens are doing when they get inside the five.
Dave Richard
But here's the thing. Volume is the problem. But he had 120 targets last year. You can be a top 24 receiver with 120 targets if you're as good.
Heath Cummings
As Zay Flowers was Zay flowers the top 24 receiver last year.
Dave Richard
Four touchdowns on 41.
Jamie Eisenberg
Great player on a team that's not going to feature him to the level he needs to get featured.
Heath Cummings
There you go.
Dave Richard
Finish up.
Heath Cummings
And then they add DeAndre Hopkins. So that's another guy that can steal some touchdowns away from Zay.
Dave Richard
Oh, let's finish up with the worst.
Jamie Eisenberg
Who's the worst addition to a good player? Is it DeAndre Hopkins to Zay Flowers, Keenan Allen to Lad McConkey or Cooper cup to JSN Cooper Cup?
Adam Azer
Hopkins for sure. I mean, worse in terms of now.
Dave Richard
Oh, yeah. Worse in terms of hurting the players. The way I was going, right.
Heath Cummings
I would go with the Chargers there just by a little cup for me.
Dave Richard
Heath, what's your answer?
Heath Cummings
End up mattering.
Adam Azer
So I, I don't understand the question still.
Dave Richard
Which, which one hurts this the, you know, the star player the most? Cup, Keenan Allen or Hopkins?
Adam Azer
I think cup by. By a pretty wide margin.
Dave Richard
And they're all 32 or 33 by the way. All right, we got three more real quick. Or Devonte Tapuka, Brian Robinson Jr. Yeah, I thought you might go there. Brian Robinson Jr. 74th overall as RB27. Caleb Johnson 75th overall as RB28. Chris Godwin 77th overall as wide receiver 32. So Brian Robinson Jr. 74th. Caleb Johnson 75th. Chris Godwin 78, 77th. All of you have. At least two of you have all these guys as going too early. Brian Robinson Jr. Caleb Johnson, Chris Godwin, Jamie. Final thoughts.
Jamie Eisenberg
I think you bring up this a little bit or you brought this up a little bit ago about not hearing about veterans and sometimes is that a bad thing? Like we have not heard one thing about Brian Robbins Jr. Not one like Jacori Crosky. Merit is looking great and all these things. And we just spent some time talking about how the passing game could be a problem for the Commanders if there is no Terry McLaurin. I wonder if Brian Robinson gets a little bit of a bigger role. I don't really hate him in this body. He's going sooner than I would draft him. But I don't hate him in this range. Like he just feels like a settle for a guy that could be more of a flex than a number two running back. But I just don't hate it. Especially like the, you know, not to reference that draft that we did last night as the end all be all. But like when all these running backs start to go early, you're going to need some mid range targets. Yeah and I just don't think he's horrible there. And and the same thing with Caleb Johnson. Like I dropped him. I think we all did. He's RB30. Like to say he's being drafted at RB28 for still a rookie that's going to be on a team that's probably going to run the ball. Like I don't hate that either. Goblin's only one really that I can't really buy at this point just because I'm nervous with the injury. So I don't hate the running back value again sooner than I want to take them but just feels like these are the range of where these guys are going to go.
Heath Cummings
The less catches count for, the more I like Brian Robinson. There was a 1.4 fantasy point difference in his per game averages from non PPR to full ppr.
Jamie Eisenberg
But what did he do in the games last year when Eckler wasn't there?
Heath Cummings
Oh, he was good, but I don't know if he caught a ton of passes in those games. He might have for some reason. I think he might have had like decent receiving production.
Jamie Eisenberg
Listen, he's very uninspiring but, but that's.
Heath Cummings
Why you settle for him.
Adam Azer
When those two guys were on the field or were healthy for games, there just was not a big enough difference in their PPR scoring for Robinson to be drafted here. And ask Eckler just never be talked about. They were like a point apart and.
Jamie Eisenberg
And that's fair too. Like nobody's saying a word about Eckler either. It really feels as if they're locked into their roles and Jacori is trying to steal it. You know, mostly Robinson you expect, but like, I don't know, I, I I'd be surprised if it's not them starting the season with their normal workflow.
Dave Richard
Are you nervous though about saying that we shouldn't take Chris Godwin with a top 80 pick when he was the number three wide receiver per game last year?
Heath Cummings
He's got the most hurdles in front of him of any of the certainly the three that we've talked about just now. But a lot of these guys, we don't know when he's coming back. We don't know how effective he'll be when he's coming back. When he does come back, his receiving core is deeper than it was last year. His quarterback has already developed chemistry. He's already had the chemistry with Evans, but now he's developed it More so with McMillan and certainly with the Buka There. There are a lot of problems with Chris Godwin and drafting him anywhere close to where you think, well, he might be that guy from last year, man. Like, I. I can't do that. I want to get him. If I'm not getting him, where do I. I moved him behind a buka already.
Dave Richard
He might be that. No one's drafting him to be the guy he was last year when he's going 78th. He was one of the. He was the best pick.
Heath Cummings
I think there will be people that do take him a little bit sooner than even that.
Jamie Eisenberg
I did a draft last night, Adam, and round 10, right?
Heath Cummings
Oh, yeah.
Dave Richard
Ridiculous. I would.
Heath Cummings
I would dance around the room.
Adam Azer
Yeah, I don't. I mean, I wouldn't take him at 78, but I don't think. I think it's close enough to where I have ranked that I wouldn't.
Jamie Eisenberg
Right.
Dave Richard
Jamie's a liar, though. He went round nine.
Heath Cummings
That's still good. Round eight is okay. We want to take the chance in round eight.
Dave Richard
Listen, they didn't have to cast actual golfers. They could have created fake golfers, fictitious golfers with funny actors. They didn't have, like, Rory McElroy just didn't add anything to the movie. It was weird. Like, why would you do that? What a weird choice to go.
Adam Azer
There's been basketball movies where they have basketball players. They're trying to make it more realistic.
Dave Richard
Kids movies have basketball.
Heath Cummings
I'm sorry. Scotty Scheffler was amazing.
Adam Azer
Fantastic.
Dave Richard
Was he.
Adam Azer
Movie without trying to convince everybody else who was fine with it that they should not like it. Also, like, you didn't like the movie.
Dave Richard
Have we.
Adam Azer
That's fine. It's okay.
Dave Richard
What'd you say? His daughters can act. His daughters are great actors. Yeah. And his wife was in it too.
Jamie Eisenberg
I gotta go. See ya.
Dave Richard
Yeah. Come on, Jamie. This is important. All right. We got. We'll talk to y' all later. What's that? Sorry, I just. I felt like it could have been good if they had cast it differently.
Adam Azer
I think you've made your opinion known.
Dave Richard
I don't think so.
Jamie Eisenberg
It's just your opinion yesterday. So on the stream last night, he did say in regards to this because he took his buddies from softball to a restaurant and he said. I asked him, I said, do you ever get upset, like when you recommend something because he said he recommended some pizza at the restaurant? He's like, no, my. My recommendations are always great. And you reference movies and music.
Dave Richard
Wait a sec. I said, I don't recommend bad movies. I said, there are plenty of good. There's plenty of good music that I don't like, but everything I like, whether it's food, movies, music, everything I like is good. Hit the button.
Heath Cummings
That's great.
Dave Richard
All right, we can end the show. We'll do a bonus podcast on Happy Gilbork, too. We'll see you later, Everybody.
Adam Azer
Paramount Podcasts, September 4th on Paramount Plus. Someone is trying to frame us. Until our names are cleared, we're fugitives from Interval. Like Bonnie and Clyde with better snacks.
Heath Cummings
NCIS.
Adam Azer
Tony and Ziva. Streaming September 4th on Paramount Plus.
Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today - "Busts! Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Lamar Jackson and More Big Names" (Released August 13, 2025)
Hosted by Adam Aizer along with analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, this episode dives deep into the potential busts for the upcoming fantasy football season. The discussion centers around high-profile players who may not meet their draft expectations, providing listeners with critical insights to refine their draft strategies.
The episode begins with the hosts revisiting last year's prediction where Saquon Barkley was labeled a bust—a call that proved accurate. They express intent to re-evaluate similar high-profile players for the current season.
Jamie Eisenberg ([01:53]):
"Last year, we called Saquon Barkley a bust. That worked out so well we're gonna double down and do it again this year."
Discussion Highlights:
Alvin Kamara: Analysts question Kamara's viability due to his age (30 years) and declining efficiency. Concerns include reduced receptions and the impact of his team's offensive strategies under Kellen Moore.
Adam Aizer ([02:41]):
"He's still around higher than I want to draft him. So I think he's still about three picks higher than what our consensus rankings have him at."
Heath Cummings ([05:11]):
"I have him ranked in round three, but it's late round three."
Aaron Jones: Positioned similarly on the bust list, Jones's ADP (Average Draft Position) is scrutinized for being too high relative to his projected performance.
Jamie Eisenberg ([07:28]):
"I have him at 70 even."
DeAndre Swift: Discussed as a potential bust primarily due to inconsistent offensive reports and a crowded backfield in Chicago.
TJ Hawkinson: Identified as a tight end bust relevant to running back opportunities, highlighting the challenges in maintaining consistent production.
Dave Richard ([07:37]):
"He doesn't need them. That's the point. But if he thinks I need him."
Saquon Barkley: Barkley remains the centerpiece of the bust discussion, with historical data suggesting a significant decline in performance for running backs with over 400 touches.
Jamie Eisenberg ([17:25]):
"Anytime you see a running back over 400 carries... they tend to break down the following year."
Dave Richard ([23:09]):
"75% are saying top six, but 50% overall picks four through six."
Lamar Jackson: Despite recent successes, Jackson is flagged due to overdrafting and the potential regression of his touchdown rates.
Jamie Eisenberg ([35:40]):
"Think Jackson is going to replicate what he did last year at his number."
Heath Cummings ([66:02]):
"As great as we're hyping up Daniels, you know, Burrow is better."
DJ Moore: Moore is considered a mystery due to fluctuating performance metrics and his team's inconsistent offensive rankings.
Jamie Eisenberg ([50:48]):
"He's still in the wide receiver three territory for me."
Heath Cummings ([54:38]):
"He gets 8.2 targets per game, but his team ranks 28th in scoring."
Sam LaPorta: A tight end whose draft position is questioned based on target share and role uncertainty within his team's offense.
Jamie Eisenberg ([58:24]):
"He just feels like a settle for a guy that could be more of a flex than a number two running back."
Bree Hall: Debated as a bust due to potential reduced role and inconsistent performance metrics.
Heath Cummings ([42:10]):
"How many games do you think he will have 15 or more touches in this year?"
Patrick Mahomes: Despite his elite status, Mahomes is questioned for being drafted too early given the availability of other quarterbacks with similar or better projections.
Jamie Eisenberg ([60:32]):
"If you don't like the other players on the board and you need to fill that position..."
Joe Mixon: Marked as a bust because of injury concerns and split carry responsibilities, leading to potential underperformance.
Jamie Eisenberg ([55:45]):
"He's gonna scooter in."
Throughout the episode, the hosts share updates on player statuses, including injuries, team changes, and contract extensions, which further influence their bust projections.
Jamie Eisenberg ([27:19]):
"James Cook signed a four-year, $48 million extension with $30 million guaranteed."
Dave Richard ([33:09]):
"Najee Harris is practicing and could be ready for week one."
The hosts engage with listener polls and encourage fans to participate in draft strategies, emphasizing the importance of timing and player selection based on ADP.
Dave Richard ([23:09]):
"Where are you taking Saquon Barkley in a PPR league?"
Heath Cummings ([24:05]):
"If you think we're full of crap. Find the person picking in the top six in your league..."
The episode concludes with teasers for upcoming live-streamed breakout session episodes focusing on different positions, further assisting listeners in making informed draft decisions.
Dave Richard ([26:01]):
"Tonight. Today is Wednesday. We are doing the breakouts bonanza today."
Key Takeaways:
High-Profile Busts: Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Swift, TJ Hawkinson, Saquon Barkley, and Lamar Jackson are primary concerns due to declining performance metrics, injury histories, and overdrafting.
Strategic Drafting: Emphasis on understanding ADP, timing of player selection, and balancing risky picks with reliable performers.
Player Updates: Continuous monitoring of player statuses is crucial, as injuries and team dynamics can significantly impact fantasy performance.
Future Content: Upcoming episodes will offer position-specific breakout analyses, providing deeper insights for fantasy managers.
This episode serves as a comprehensive guide for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to navigate the complexities of player performance and draft strategies to enhance their league dominance.