Conference Championship DFS Lineup Strategy: WIN BIG with Dave and Adam! (1/23 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Conference Championship DFS Lineup Strategy - WIN BIG with Dave and Adam!

Release Date: January 25, 2025

In the January 23rd episode of Fantasy Football Today titled "Conference Championship DFS Lineup Strategy: WIN BIG with Dave and Adam!", hosts Adam Aizer and analyst Dave Richard delve deep into Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) strategies tailored for the imminent conference championship weekend. This comprehensive discussion offers listeners actionable insights, player evaluations, and strategic lineup constructions to maximize their fantasy football performance.

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1. Introduction to DFS Lineup Strategies

Adam Aizer kicks off the episode by emphasizing the critical nature of DFS lineup optimization during the high-stakes conference championships. He introduces the primary focus: crafting winning lineups by analyzing player performances, matchups, and leveraging contrarian picks to gain an edge over competitors.

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2. Quarterback Analysis and Rankings

The conversation begins with a detailed evaluation of the four quarterbacks participating in the weekend's matchups.

• Ranking the Quarterbacks:

  The unnamed analyst presents his ranking at [02:08]:

  "Overall, Allen would be first, Daniels would be second, Mahomes would be third, Hertz would be fourth."

  This ranking is based on recent performances, health status, and the offensive strategies employed by their respective teams.

• Concerns About Jalen Hurts:

  At [02:08], the analyst expresses apprehension regarding Jalen Hurts:

  "I'm nervous that Jalen Hurts won't be 100%. He's clearly a different quarterback when he's not at 100%."

  Additional concerns include limited pass attempts and yards in recent games, highlighted by Adam:

  "Even if you want to forget about Jalen Hurts his Health. He's thrown 22 or fewer pass attempts in six of his last eight games... He's thrown for 179 or fewer yards in five of his last six games."

• Josh Allen as the Best Value:

  Concluding the quarterback discussion, the analyst advocates for Patrick Mahomes as the best value:

  "I think it's Mahomes. He's cheaper on DraftKings than Hertz's by 500 bucks and Mahomes has plenty of upside."

  Adam concurs, noting Mahomes' stellar playoff performances and robust receiving options make him a reliable choice.

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3. Running Back Strategies

The duo transitions to running backs, weighing the merits of top performers and potential sleepers.

• Saquon Barkley vs. Isaiah Pacheco:

  Adam discusses Saquon Barkley's dominance and consistent performance against a weak run defense:

  "Saquon Barkley has 25 or more carries in four straight games. And the Commanders' run defense, by the way, it's awful. They give up like 4.9 yards per carry to running backs in their last five."

• Kareem Hunt as a Contrarian Pick:

  The analyst introduces Kareem Hunt as a valuable contrarian option:

  "Kareem Hunt, who might score twice. He's the goal line back for Kansas City, and we never really saw Isaiah Pacheco become the feature back once he returned from his leg injury."

• James Cook and Austin Eckler:

  Dave weighs in on James Cook's potential impact against the Chiefs' fading run defense:

  "I am expecting James Cook to have a real good game against this Chiefs defense. Their run defense has started to fade a little bit down the stretch and I think Cook could be a catalyst for Buffalo to win the game."

  Austin Eckler is noted for his receiving prowess:

  "He can break off long gains off of short catches. Totally expect the game script to favor Eckler in a big way."

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4. Wide Receiver Tactics

Wide receivers present a challenging position to navigate, given the fluctuating performances and matchups.

• Terry McLaurin and A.J. Brown:

  The analyst expresses strong support for Terry McLaurin, citing his role as the primary target:

  "He's been great. He's the number one target for Jalen Daniels. The game script is expected where the Commanders are gonna have to throw."

  A.J. Brown is discussed as a high-risk, high-reward option:

  "In terms of yards. A.J. Brown has had two of the three best games of his career in the playoffs. I have a hard time buying it, but he also gonna be popular."

• Xavier Worthy and Khalil Shakir:

  Xavier Worthy is highlighted as a must-have:

  "Wide receiver is really tough this week, so Xavier Worthy to me is a must-have guy."

  Khalil Shakir is praised for his slot performance:

  "He's the easy option for Josh Allen to throw to and I feel like he's safe."

• Contrarian Receivers:

  The discussion includes potential sleeper picks like Shakira and Diami Brown:

  "Before him, it was Alama Days. Akias... he had a 51-yard game in week 17 or week 18 on five targets. So that would be a dart throw for me."

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5. Tight End Considerations

Tight ends are pivotal in DFS, often commanding significant price points.

• Travis Kelce vs. Dallas Goedert:

  The analyst strongly recommends Travis Kelce over Dallas Goedert:

  "Yes, because it just looks like playoff Kelce has arrived. ... Dallas Goedert is 1500 less than Travis Kelce."

  Kelce's consistency and upside are emphasized:

  "He should be able to have another good game where he scores and, you know, at least 60 yards, six catches."

  The importance of securing a top-tier tight end is underscored as a strategic necessity rather than a contrarian play.

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6. Contrarian Picks and 'Darts'

To differentiate lineups and capitalize on undervalued players, the hosts discuss contrarian selections or "darts."

• Running Back Darts:

  • Kareem Hunt: For his goal-line opportunities and consistent touches.

  • Ty Johnson: As Buffalo's third-down back, offering potential passing down targets and big plays.

• Wide Receiver Dart:

  • Diami Brown: Despite limited snaps last week, his potential for explosive plays makes him a viable contrarian choice.

  The analyst elaborates:

  "I'm expecting James Cook to have a big game... If I'm wrong on that and Buffalo is trailing, well, Ty Johnson's their third-down back. He's their passing downs back. He'll be on the field and available to catch passes from Josh Allen."

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7. Sample DFS Lineups

The hosts present sample lineups tailored for different DFS platforms, showcasing their strategic approaches.

• Analyst's DraftKings Lineup:

  | Position | Player | Salary | |------------------|------------------|---------| | QB | Josh Allen | - | | RB | Kareem Hunt | 4400 | | RB | Ty Johnson | 4400 | | WR | Terry McLaurin | - | | WR | Shakir | - | | WR | Xavier Worthy | - | | FLEX | Diami Brown | 4400 | | TE | Travis Kelce | 6000 | | DST | Eagles Defense | 3300 |

• Adam's FanDuel Lineup:

  | Position | Player | Salary | |------------------|------------------|---------| | QB | Josh Allen | - | | RB | Saquon Barkley | - | | RB | James Cook | - | | WR | Xavier Worthy | - | | WR | Khalil Shakir | - | | WR | Diami Brown | - | | TE | Travis Kelce | - | | FLEX | Austin Eckler | - | | DST | Commanders DST | - |

Adam concludes by highlighting the importance of balancing high-priced studs like Travis Kelce with strategic contrarian picks to optimize budget and maximize potential returns.

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8. Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Adam and Dave reiterate the significance of informed decision-making in DFS, especially during pivotal games like the conference championships. They encourage listeners to leverage the discussed strategies, remain adaptable to in-game developments, and trust their lineup constructions to secure victory in their fantasy leagues.

Listeners are reminded to tune in for future episodes for continued insights and strategies to stay ahead in the fantasy football landscape.

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Notable Quotes:

• [02:08] Unnamed Analyst: "Allen would be first, Daniels would be second, Mahomes would be third, Hertz would be fourth."

• [04:46] Adam: "Mahomes has plenty of upside. You chronicled on the main show how good he's been in the playoffs against Buffalo."

• [11:08] Unnamed Analyst: "Yes, because it just looks like playoff Kelce has arrived."

• [12:00] Unnamed Analyst: "I'm expecting James Cook to have a real good game against this Chiefs defense."

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Fantasy Football Today continues to be an essential resource for fantasy enthusiasts seeking to dominate their leagues through expert analysis and strategic insights. Whether you're a seasoned manager or a newcomer, episodes like this provide the tools and knowledge necessary to elevate your fantasy football game.

Transcript

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[Adam]

It's not too late to play fantasy football. Let's get some DFS lineups for conference championship weekend right now on FFT Express. Welcome, everybody. Adam and Dave here, expressing ourselves and sharing our fantasy lineups with you.

[Unnamed Analyst]

I still get a little queasy when you whisper Express like that.

[Adam]

You want me to whisper the entire show?

[Unnamed Analyst]

No, I don't want you to whisper at all.

[Adam]

I don't think that's an. I don't think that's on the table.

[Unnamed Analyst]

You're going to whisper again at the.

[Adam]

End of the show and I sign off. Yeah. Or maybe during the commercial break. You know, when I send it to break. Yeah, I'm gonna whisper. Yeah. All right.

[Unnamed Analyst]

This is weird. Let's get to DFS lineups.

[Adam]

All right. When you look at the four quarterbacks playing this week, how would you rank them? Not even in terms of value, just overall.

[Unnamed Analyst]

Overall, Allen would be first, Daniels would be second, Mahomes would be third, Hertz would be fourth. And that's because I'm nervous that Jalen hurts won't be 100%. And as we talked about in the main show, he's clearly a different quarterback when he's not at 100%. And I think the commanders would treat him much differently if he were not running, I think they'd play a ton more man coverage. They started out that way when they played against them in week 16. At times it worked for them and at times it didn't before he got concussed and left the game. But I, I just. I think that it's a huge factor. How mobile is he? How well can he plant on his foot and throw downfield? Is A.J. brown okay to catch passes from him? Obvious factors that could change how effective this Philadelphia offense could be. That's why he's fourth. That's why I'm gonna have a hard time putting A.J. brown in any of my lineups.

[Adam]

And here's another thing. Even if you want to forget about Jalen hurts his Health. He's thrown 22 or fewer pass attempts in six of his last eight games. I'm not counting the game he left with the injury, the concussion, 22 or fewer pass attempts. He's thrown for 179 or fewer yards in five of his last six games. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley has 25 or more carries in four straight games. And the commander's run defense, by the way, it's awful. They give up like 4.9 yards per carry to running backs in their last five.

[Unnamed Analyst]

That's exactly what they've given up for the whole season.

[Adam]

They've been that bad. So it just seems so obvious on paper what the game plan will be now if. If the Eagles defense can't keep Jaden Daniels in check, all right, then maybe we get more past attempts and maybe if you believe in Jaden Daniels, you believe in the commanders to put up 25 or more points or something. And maybe you throw A.J. brown your lineup. He is super expensive, but he's definitely. I think he's going to be a contrarian play because he's just been so bad working through this injury.

[Unnamed Analyst]

Could say the same exact thing for Devonte Smith and Dallas Goddard. I think all Eagles except for Saquon in their defense will be contrarian plays.

[Adam]

Yeah. And then. Yeah, so. So who's the best value at quarterback? Is it Mahomes?

[Unnamed Analyst]

I think it's Mahomes. He's cheaper on DraftKings than Hertz's by 500 bucks and Mahomes has plenty of upside. You chronicled on the main show how good he's been in the playoffs against Buffalo, how much he runs in the playoffs in general, and he still has an excellent receiving core to throw to.

[Adam]

And yeah, we'll go to the running backs here. We didn't really Talk about Kareem Hunt. But Kareem Hunt does appear to be the goal lineback since Isaiah Pacheco returned. They have about the same amount of carries regular season and postseason. Pacheco does not have a touchdown. Cremon has three of them. They're from one, two and three yards out. So you could, that would be good value if he could get you a touchdown. You love Barkley though. I mean, I just laid out why it's.

[Unnamed Analyst]

You feel like the whole world knows why. We don't have to get into it.

[Adam]

How do you feel about James Cook, Brian Robinson? I have Eckler. I think Eckler. Eckler had a huge game against the Eagles the first time. I think he's going to be pretty involved. Who do you want at this position other than Barkley?

[Unnamed Analyst]

He didn't play in the second game, so we've really only seen the one time against Philadelphia in the second game. I think Robinson and McNichols combined for six catches. So that seems to be something that Washington will do against this defense is have Jaden Daniels check down or have design throws to to the running back because they probably don't figure that they can run the ball the traditional way. Against the Seagulls run defense, which since their bye week has been absolutely outstanding. Regardless of what we saw from Kyron Williams in the snow last week, I, I think you'll see Saquon is the best running back. James Cook is second best. I'm hoping, thinking I'm, I'm picking Buffalo because I think James Cook will have a real good game against this Chiefs defense. Their run defense has started to fade a little bit down the stretch and I think Cook could be a catalyst for Buffalo to win the game. Eckler would be third just because of the catches. The upside that he presents, he can break off long gains off of short catches. Totally expect the game script to favor Echler in a big way that it didn't quite have last week against Detroit.

[Adam]

Okay, so let's take a break and we'll come back, we'll talk about the wide receivers and the tight ends and we'll give some lineups for you on fft.

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[Unnamed Analyst]

Much better.

[Adam]

All right. I didn't think so. Wide receivers here, It's a tough position. We're not really into A.J. brown, but it's a good contrarian play. Are you into Terry McLaurin?

[Unnamed Analyst]

Very much so. But I think the whole world will be. He'll probably be the most rostered wide receiver across the the sites this weekend. And it makes sense. He's been great. He's the number one target for Jaden Daniels. The game script is expected where the Commanders are gonna have to throw. And why wouldn't they? Because Daniels has been throwing the ball well and this is his top target.

[Adam]

In terms of yards. Diami Brown has had two of the three best games of his career in the playoffs. He's only had one game in his entire four year career with more yards than what he's done in in these two playoff games. So you know, I have a, a hard time buying it. But he, I think he's also gonna be popular. I had him. I actually put him in my lineup before McLaurin because I've seen what the Eagles can do to number one receivers, including Terry McLaurin. McLaurin had an awful game. McLaurin also had an awful game when he was shadowed by AJ Terrell in week 17. So you know, he's not going to be shadowed this week. And Quinton Mitchell may not play. I, I do like McClure.

[Unnamed Analyst]

Mitchell's playing. He might not be at 100.

[Adam]

Yeah, I, I do like him. I don't want to poo poo him too much but.

[Unnamed Analyst]

Well, how do you feel about starting two Commanders Pass catchers? Whether it's McLaurin with Brown, McLaurin with Ertz, I don't have a problem with that. And then you're hoping that at least one of them Has a monster game and the other one doesn't kill you?

[Adam]

Yeah, I, well, I just think Brown is so cheap that you kind of have to put them in there. Wide receiver is really tough this week, so Xavier Worthy to me is a must have guy. And the Army Brown. I, I have one lineup with. With were those three McLaurin, Worthy and Brown.

[Unnamed Analyst]

I'm gonna tell you one at the end of this show.

[Adam]

And I have one lineup with Brown, McLaurin and Shakira. Do you like Shakir?

[Unnamed Analyst]

I do. He's in the lineup that I'm going to give toward the end of the show as well. I, I obviously the, the easy option for Josh Allen to throw to and I feel like he's safe. Can he get you 16 PPR points? That might be a little tough to expect, but I, I do think that he's a, an inexpensive staple who won't hurt you too bad in, in tournaments.

[Adam]

We saw Jalen Watson come back for the Chiefs. He only played 59 of the snaps, but it was a very good performance against the past for the Chiefs. Last week against Houston, they've just been so much better when their number two cornerback, Jalen Watson has been on the field. But Shakir, I mean, it is kind of interesting. Shakir operates out of the slot. Chiefs have arguably the best slot corner in the NFL. Just want to check the game log real quick week. First time you play them. Oh, 8 for 70 on 12 targets. So he was just fine against the Chief.

[Unnamed Analyst]

You'd be happy with that.

[Adam]

All right. With that said. Oh, actually, why don't we go to tight end? We'll go to tight end and then we'll talk about, like, dart throws, you know, just guys that we don't think are gonna be rostered in hardly any leagues that might pay off. But Titans, not that bad. I guess you've got respectable guys here. But is it worth paying up for Kelsey?

[Unnamed Analyst]

Yes, because it just looks like playoff Kelsey has arrived. We saw it last week. I think everybody's going to buy in. The next highest price tight end on DraftKings is Dallas Goddard, and he's 1500 less than Travis Kelsey. I just say pay up for Kelsey and I think a lot of people will do it. But he should be able to pay off. He should be able to have another good game where he scores and, you know, at least 60 yards, six catches. That's fine. If he does those three things, that's 18 PPR points right there. And he's got upside to get 10 catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns. Who knows what he'll do? So the upside is there. I think Kelsey should be there. It would be very contrarian to go in a different direction at tight end.

[Adam]

Okay, let's throw some darts. Any. Any darts out there.

[Unnamed Analyst]

I'm. I challenged myself to come up with a lineup without Saquon Barkley, James Cook or Austin Eckler. And so the two running back darts that I'm throwing are Kareem Hunt, who might score twice. He's the goal lineback for Kansas City, and we never really saw Isaiah Pacheco become the feature back once he returned from his leg injury. Hasn't happened. So maybe Kareem Hunt just has just as big of a role as Pacheco, plus goal line work. So I put Hunt in my lineup and I put Ty Johnson in my lineup. I. I am expecting James Cook to have a big game. I think he could be a reason why the Bills win. But if I'm wrong on that and Buffalo is trailing, well, Ty Johnson's their third down back. He's their passing downs back. He'll be on the field and available to catch passes from Josh Allen. And we saw it. He's capable of making big plays. So at 4400 at running back, to be contrarian, I put him in my lineup as well.

[Adam]

All this Diami Brown hype that everyone in the world is. The Internet's buzzing about him now. Before him, it was Alama Days. Akias. I don't know why. It can't necessarily be a lama day Zakias. This game, his snaps were way down. He only played 44 of the snaps last week, so that is a little concerning. But he ended the season with four, eight, nine, and five targets. He had a couple of really good games in there. He had a 51 yard game in week 17 or week 18 on five targets. So I guess that would be a dart throw for me. And that's. That's pretty much all I've got. All right, give me your favorite DFS lineup.

[Unnamed Analyst]

This isn't my favorite. This is the one that I'm. I'm putting together without Saquon Cook, Eckler. It's Josh Allen, a quarterback you already know. The running backs scream Hunt and Ty Johnson. Adam, we already Talked about all four of the receivers I'm using. McLaurin, Shakir, Xavier Worthy. Xavier Worthy is 200 less than Khalil Shakir, and Diami Brown is in there in my Flex at 4400. That did afford me the chance to go with Kelsey at 6,000 and the Eagles defense hoping that they can get a couple of sacks, couple of turnovers.

[Adam]

3300 against the Commanders and that is on DraftKings. My very chalky fanduel lineup has Josh Allen who has scored 30 or more fantasy points in six point per passing touchdown leagues in all three playoff games against the Chiefs. Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley, James Cook, Xavier Worthy, Khalil, Shakir Diami Brown, Travis Kelce, Austin Eckler and the Commanders dst. Okay, thanks for watching and listening everybody. We'll talk to you on Monday on fft.

[Kristen]

Paramount Podcasts.