Conference Championship Fantasy Preview! Players We Love & Hate | AFC Championship, NFC Championship (1/22 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

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Fantasy Football Today: Conference Championship Fantasy Preview

Episode Date: January 23, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Adam Aizer and analyst Dave Richard break down the fantasy football landscape for the AFC and NFC Championship games, focusing on DFS (Daily Fantasy Sports) lineup strategies and their favorite (and least favorite) players from the Broncos vs. Patriots and Rams vs. Seahawks matchups. The discussion covers optimal plays by position, risky pivots, and tips on differentiating lineups for tournaments.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. DFS Lineup Building for Championship Sunday

• Popular Wide Receiver Pairings:
  Dave emphasizes the prevalence of building lineups around the two young star receivers, Puka Nacua (Rams) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seahawks).

  • Quote:

    "Number one Pukinakua and Jackson, Smith and Jigba in lineups working together tandem two stud number one Wide receivers. ... Every lineup that I've made so far, I've made three. They all have Puka and JSN in them."
    — Dave Richard, [02:12]

• Flexibility With Their Inclusion:

  • Including both allows for flexibility at RB/QB due to their mid-range prices.
  • If trying to be different, consider using only one.

• The Dobbins Scenario:
  If J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) is activated from IR, his low DFS price will make him highly owned ("chalk") in lineups, though Dave warns savvy players to consider alternatives for differentiation.

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2. Wide Receiver Deep-Dive

• Devante Adams (Rams):

  • Adam raises Adams as a potential play due to his price drop, but Dave is skeptical:
    • Quote:

      "No, because I'm worried about how much upside he'll have. This is a great Seattle defense."
      — Dave Richard, [03:58]

  • Dave points out Adams’ recent ineffectiveness and suggests his age/injury are limiting him.

• Seattle’s Pass Defense:

  • Adam recites stats showing how rare it is for receivers to post big games versus Seattle (“They've been unbelievable”) and ties this to lowered Adams and Rams WR expectations ([04:47]).

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3. Running Back Analysis

• Kyren Williams (Rams):

  • Dave avoids him due to matchup and price despite his production.
    • "I don't think he's worth the squeeze. 6,500 makes him the most expensive running back on DraftKings." ([05:13])
  • Seattle’s recent run defense: allowing 3.3 YPC, just 1 TD, 0 explosive runs in four games.

• Kenneth Walker (Seahawks):

  • Both recommend him for opportunity and volatility; he’s a potential slate-breaker despite risks.
    • "He could go out there and have three touchdowns. He could have 12 carries for 45 yards and one catch for 10 yards. But you've got to take the chance on him..." — Dave Richard, [05:55]

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4. Patriots vs. Broncos: Who to Target?

• Stefon Diggs (Patriots):

  • Dave likes Diggs for his target share and success vs. man coverage.
    • "...very high target per route run rate against man coverage this year. It's 24.5% 9.6 yards per target." ([06:25])
  • He also notes Diggs moves into the slot, possibly dodging Denver’s top CB (Surtain).

• Ramondre Stevenson (Patriots):

  • Believes Stevenson will thrive versus a struggling Denver run defense, especially with PPR scoring.

• Less Enthusiasm Elsewhere:

  • No standout DFS plays from other Denver or New England players.

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5. Sample DFS Lineups & Strategy

• Dave’s Seahawks Stack ([08:27]):

  • QB: Sam Darnold
  • RBs: Ramondre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker
  • WRs: Puka Nacua, JSN, Stefon Diggs
  • TE: AJ Barner
  • Flex: Jake Ferguson (low budget)
  • DST: Rams (due to salary constraints)

• Adam’s DraftKings Lineup:

  • QB: Matthew Stafford
  • RBs: Ken Walker, Ramondre Stevenson
  • WRs: Puka Nacua, Stefon Diggs, Devante Adams
  • TE: Colby Parkinson
  • Flex: Demario Douglas
  • DST: Patriots

• Dave’s “Jarrett Stidham Challenge” Lineup ([10:27]):

  • QB: Jarrett Stidham
  • RBs: Walker, Stevenson
  • WRs: Puka, JSN, Keishawn Boutte
  • Flex: Cooper Kupp (with the option to pivot to Pat Bryant if cleared)
  • TE: Barner
  • DST: Broncos
  • Contrarian play: If Dobbins out, RJ Harvey as a cheap, high-PPR RB.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• The Puka/JSN Chalk:

  "Every lineup that I've made so far, I've made three. They all have Puka and JSN in them."
  — Dave Richard, [02:12]

• Cautious on Devante Adams:

  "[He's] not getting open like he used to. He still has some good speed, but ... I think there's still some lingering effects on that for somebody who's, you know, 32, 33 years old."
  — Dave Richard, [03:58]

• Seattle's Recent Defensive Dominance:

  "They've been unbelievable. They've also been great against the run."
  — Adam Aizer, [04:47]

• On Kenneth Walker’s Boom/Bust Profile:

  "He could go out there and have three touchdowns. He could have 12 carries for 45 yards and one catch for 10 yards."
  — Dave Richard, [05:55]

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Important Timestamps

• [02:12] Dave’s take on WR chalk (Puka & JSN)
• [03:58] Why Dave avoids Devante Adams this week
• [05:13] Kyren Williams’ tough matchup vs Seattle run D
• [05:55] Analysis of Kenneth Walker’s upside/downside
• [06:25] Patriots-Broncos highlighted players: Stefon Diggs and Ramondre Stevenson
• [08:27] Sample DFS lineups and build approach
• [10:27] The “Jarrett Stidham Challenge” lineup strategy

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Summary Takeaways

• Chalk Wide Receivers: Most builds center on Puka Nacua and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
• RB Targets: Kenneth Walker and Ramondre Stevenson are the top RBs.
• Fade the Names: Dave is particularly cautious with Devante Adams (health, matchup) and Kyren Williams (price, matchup).
• Contrarian Angles: Avoiding the obvious stacks or capitalizing on late injury news (J.K. Dobbins, Pat Bryant) can differentiate your lineup.
• Patriots Offense Looks Good: Both Diggs and Stevenson are favored for volume.
• Mixing Up Stacks: Rotating in cheaper QBs or unpredictable stacks (like Stidham) could swing tournaments.

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Transcript

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[Adam Azer]

Let's make some DFS lineups for the AFC and NFC Championship games. Holy cow, they're here. We'll talk about it right now at FDA Express. All right, it's Broncos and Patriots and it's Rams Seahawks part three. So Patriots are four and a half point favorites on the road as of Thursday afternoon. Total in that game is 42 and a half. The Rams and Seahawks. Seahawks are two and a half point favorites. Total is 47. That game's at 6:30pm Eastern on Sunday.

[Dave Richard]

Hey Dave, Adam, I think there are going to be two things that you will see consistent with DFS lineups this week. Number one Pukinakua and Jackson, Smith and Jigba in lineups working together tandem two stud number one Wide receivers. You can go in a lot of different directions if you have those two in a lab. You can go cheap at running back and get a good quarterback with those two wide receivers or you can go expensive at running back, cheap a quarterback and still stick with those two wide receivers. The other thing I think you'll see is if J.K. dobbins is cleared, if he comes off IR ready to go, his price is so low on both FanDuel and DraftKings that you'll see him get into lineups because people will see the cheap price tag. They'll remember how good he was at the beginning of the year and they will slide him into lineup. So the more you can do to get away from that and differentiate, the better. But even with that being said, I don't know how you get away from using at least one of Nakua and jsn. Every lineup that I've made so far, I've made three. They all have Puka and JSN in them. So if you want to try and be different, you try and build something without them in there, you're gonna have enough money left over to use one of them anyway if you do that. So maybe pick one of those two and move forward with your lineup.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I mean, I have a FanDuel lineup that does not have. Does not have Jackson, Smith and Jigba does have Pukinakua, but it doesn't have Jackson. But, you know, so just to not repeat the same thing we just did on the main show, I didn't ask anyone about Devonte Adams because obviously a great season, always a must start wide receiver, certainly a way to save money. Not that he's cheap, but Puka on FanDuel's 9, 800, JSN's 9,400, Devonte's $8,000. You have any interest in him?

[Dave Richard]

No, because I'm worried about how much upside he'll have. This is a great Seattle defense. They've got a great pass rush, they play a lot of zone. We know that Devonte Adams is much more of like a touchdown needy fantasy wide receiver. And he had a high target per route run rate when he played against Seattle. The one time he was available to them, to the Rams against Seattle. He's the guy that I think is really easy to pivot away from too, especially since when I've watched the last two playoff games, he's been covered pretty easily. He's not getting open like he used to. He still has some good speed, but he's not getting open the same way that he used to even earlier this year. So remember the injury that he suffered? He was didn't play in Week 16 against Seattle. Yeah, I think there's still some lingering effects on that for somebody who's, you know, 32, 33 years old, however old he is.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. And the first time he played against them. He had one catch for one yard and a touchdown on eight targets. Seattle. Here are the wide receivers who have more than 66 yards against Seattle this year. Ricky Pearsall Ameka Abuca. Jalen Knoll. Pukinakua twice. Brian Thomas Jr. That's it. They've been unbelievable. They've also been great against the run. Do you like Kyron Williams? Kyron Williams has pretty much run well on. On just about everyone including Seattle.

[Dave Richard]

It's true. I don't think he's worth the squeeze. 6,500 makes him the most expensive running back on DraftKings. Yeah. I'd rather. I'd. Yeah. Fine. I'd rather go cheaper. Knowing that. Seattle's run defense. This is their past four games. 3.3 yards per carry allowed. One rushing touchdown line. It was a goal line job to Blake Corum. Zero explosive runs allowed. 000% none. Not a zip. Zilch. This is a really good run defense. I don't want to. I don't want to overspend on. On Kyron Williams And I don't feel great about Blake Corum either.

[Adam Azer]

But we're fine. Spending on Ken Walker makes sense. He's a great opportunity.

[Dave Richard]

I think you have to. Especially since he's gonna have. You just said it. The great opportunity. I'm not sure who that second running back will be in Seattle and I don't even know if it'll really matter. But I think Ken Walker is just one of those guys like so volatile. He could go out there and have three touchdowns. He could have 12 carries for 45 yards and one catch for 10 yards. But you got to take the chance on him given just the situation that Seattle's in right now and the matchup isn't horrible.

[Adam Azer]

So who do you like in the Denver New England game?

[Dave Richard]

You know one of the guys I actually likes. One of the guys I like a lot is Stefan Diggs who has a very high target per route run rate against man coverage this year. It's 24.5% 9.6 yards per target. A 20.6 explosive run rate. He will play in the slot a decent amount. So I don't think he's going to get certain. I. I kind of like Diggs not only for that reason but also because when Drake may. When he does have time to throw. And when I say time I'm talking three seconds or less. Usually when a quarterback is getting hurried up we're talking about under two and a half seconds. So that little extra half a second Might make a difference. He's the number one target per route run rate guy there, too, so I could see volume going his way. I've put him into a bunch of my lineups. I like Ramondre Stevenson a lot as well. I think Denver's run defense is kind of taking a step back. We saw that with Buffalo and what they did with James Cook. Ramondra Stevenson's been playing well. He's been playing more than Travion Henderson, been making plays through the air, so you're going to get points for the catches. I like him quite a bit, too, and. And I don't know if there's really anybody else that I love from Denver or from New England, but those two guys are guys that I'm certainly interested in getting in my lap, and I think there'll be big reasons why the Patriots beat Denver.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, let's take a quick break and we'll give you some lineups when we come back on Fantasy Football Today Express.

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[Dave Richard]

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[Adam Azer]

Delivery fees may apply. We're back. All right, I've got a Ram stack on fan on DraftKings and a Patriot stack on FanDuel. But would you like to share any lineups?

[Dave Richard]

I've got kind of the same type of lineup for both FanDuel and DraftKings. So let me read this one off to you and. And you can tell me what you think. It's a Seahawks stack. So Darnold's the quarterback, which is scary for obvious reasons, but I'm trying to not use Drake May and Matthew Stafford because I think a lot of people will use one of those, too. Ramandre Stevenson, Ken Walker. I think those guys are going to be very popular. Puka, jsn. We already talked about that. I don't think Diggs will be very popular because he's fairly expensive at 5800 on DK. But I like him. I'm gonna put him in my lineup. I used AJ Barner and we had a conversation on the main show on Thursday about tight end values and how they were all kind of A expensive and B, not great. If I'm stacking The Seahawks. I think barner's the number two target getter. And at 4, 000, I'll just.

[Adam Azer]

I'll.

[Dave Richard]

I'll deal with it. There's. I had to go cheap at flex with. With Ferguson, and I. I ran out of money, so I had to use the Rams defense, which is not ideal if I'm stacking all these Seahawks. So maybe you make a pivot away. Maybe the. The solution is to pivot away from Puka or jsn. If you're going with the Seahawks sack, it would be Puka you would pivot away from, and then you can go and spend a little bit more at other positions, including defense, and you won't have to use the Rams defense. Okay.

[Adam Azer]

My draftkings lineup does have a lot in common with yours. It has. Not that much, actually. Ken Walker, Ramandre Stevenson are the running backs. Puka Nukua and Stefan Diggs are two of the wide receivers. I'm gonna go with Devonte Adams. That's a guy that almost feels contrarian to me. He hasn't done well lately. You just laid out the reasons. He's got a really tough matchup, but let's see if he comes through. If Seattle can put up some points, then Matthew Stafford, because I have Stafford's my quarterback, then I've got Stafford, Puka, and Devonte Adams, and I have Colby Parkins. So I have Stafford, Ken Walker, Stevenson, Puka Diggs, Adams, Parkinson, Demario Douglas, and the Patriots dst. Yeah.

[Dave Richard]

You want to hear one more lineup?

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, yeah.

[Dave Richard]

The. The Jarrett Stidham Challenge lineup. Okay. I'm gonna give this to you without necessarily making a stack for Stidham because I don't know who's going to play yet between Troy Franklin and Pat Bryant. I would like to use one of those two guys. I think Bryant would be the one I'd prefer, but one of those two guys I can use as a replacement for the other receivers I'll talk about. So similarities. Running backs are Walker and Ramandre receivers, Puka, jsn. Stidham is the quarterback. At wide receiver, I have Keisha on Booty, and at Flex, I have Cooper Cup. Both of them are right around the same price as Troy Franklin and. Or Pat Bryant. If Brian is cleared from the concussion protocol, I'll take Cup out of there and I'll put in. And I'll put in Pat Bryant to go along with Booty. Barner's the tight end. And because I've got Stidham, I've got the Broncos defense. In there too and the one guy that I didn't put in that I might pivot to as well. And again, this is moving parts types of thing if J.K. dobbins isn't activated. Yeah, kind of like R.J. harvey at the price only on draftkings because it's full ppr because I think he'll get a lot of check down targets from Jared Stidham. You go back and you look at how Jared Stidham played and how he distributed the football in his four starts over two years. It was in 2022 and 2023, but those running backs had nearly a 30% target share from Jarrett Stidham. So if that's a tendency that he has I know I said that I don't love RJ Harvey. I certainly don't like the matchup form and I know he's not going to get a lot of carries because I think Denver just is kind of done with their run game unless Dobbins plays. I think RJ Harvey would be a decent option in full PPR and not to mention a contrarian play given the situation the quarterback if there is no Dobbins, etc.

[Adam Azer]

Thank you Dave. If you want more DFS advice, just listen to the second half of the show we recorded on Thursday and so plenty there for Dave Richard, I'm Adam Azer. Thanks for watching and listening to FFT. Paramount podcasts.