Consensus PPR #13-18! Elite (But Old) RBs, Brock Bowers and More (06/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Podcast Summary: Fantasy Football Today Episode: Consensus PPR #13-18! Elite (But Old) RBs, Brock Bowers and More (06/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Release Date: June 25, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings

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Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosts Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, and Jamey Eisenberg delve into the Consensus PPR (Points Per Reception) rankings, focusing specifically on players ranked 13 through 18. The discussion centers around evaluating the current standings, assessing player performances, and forecasting their potential impact for the upcoming fantasy football season.

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Consensus PPR Rankings #13-18

13. Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey stands at the 13th spot in the Consensus PPR rankings. The hosts discuss his versatility and potential risks associated with his performance.

• Adam Aizer [01:06]: "McCaffrey just stands alone. He's just different."
• Dave Richard [02:45]: "Bijan Robinson or Derrick Henry? Bijan Henry it is Bijan."

14. A.J. Brown

A.J. Brown is highlighted as a reliable and safe pick, consistently delivering solid performances.

• Adam Aizer [10:04]: "Do it."
• Dave Richard [07:36]: "Jamie, do you think a Buka is someone that should knock down the fantasy value of Evans and or Godwin?"

15. Brian Thomas Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr. emerges as a promising talent with significant upside, though questions about his consistency linger.

• Jamie Eisenberg [26:07]: "Thomas was a solid round one pick for me."
• Adam Aizer [27:53]: "Brian Thomas Jr. You guys do have a head."

16. Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry's performance remains a topic of debate, with discussions about his age and injury history juxtaposed against his consistent high scoring.

• Jamie Eisenberg [35:13]: "It's easier to take the risk with Henry because he hasn't pulled a McCaffrey where he's missed almost an entire season because of an injury popping up."
• Dave Richard [47:33]: "How many touches per game do you think he will average this year, guys?"

17. Kyron Williams

Kyron Williams is analyzed for his efficiency and the challenges posed by his upcoming schedule and team dynamics.

• Jamie Eisenberg [38:11]: "He can be among the touchdown leaders at the position and certainly can be, you know, around that 20 point per game number that we love at that spot."
• Dave Richard [42:03]: "I do think I'm getting more and more nervous about Kyron Williams."

18. Brock Bowers

Brock Bowers is discussed in terms of his evolving role within his team and the implications for his fantasy value.

• Adam Aizer [52:01]: "Brock Bowers is currently, I think, 18th, actually in fantasy pros ADP."
• Jamie Eisenberg [54:44]: "He's going to be one of the next Kelsey Graham, Kelsey Kittle, you know, these guys could wreck fantasy."

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In-Depth Discussion and Analysis

The hosts engage in a comprehensive debate over the rankings and potential of each player:

• Christian McCaffrey: While acknowledged as a top-tier running back, concerns are raised about his usage with the 49ers and his injury history. Jamie emphasizes the importance of his role and potential to rebound from past injuries.

  • Jamie Eisenberg [18:38]: "He is a round one pick. He is fantasy pros ADP. He's 11th would not be surprising right now."

• A.J. Brown vs. Brian Thomas Jr.: The conversation weighs the consistency and safety of A.J. Brown against the high-upside but potentially volatile Brian Thomas Jr.

  • Dave Richard [26:13]: "It's a little bit of a project. But he's going to thrive in this offense."
  • Jamie Eisenberg [33:35]: "He's a steal."

• Derrick Henry: Despite his age, Henry's ability to deliver high fantasy points per game keeps him in contention, though his efficiency and workload are scrutinized.

  • Dave Richard [49:08]: "He's a monster who needs to be fed."
  • Jamie Eisenberg [45:32]: "He's awesome."

• Kyron Williams: Efficiency issues and a tough early-season schedule are highlighted as potential red flags, making him a secondary choice over other running backs.

  • Dave Richard [42:53]: "I don't feel like the same type of ceiling is there for Kyron as I did this time last year."

• Brock Bowers: The shift in offensive schemes and personnel changes impacts Bowers' target share and overall fantasy value, although his talent remains undeniable.

  • Jamie Eisenberg [56:36]: "He showed one of the best rookie seasons ever at this position."

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Conclusions and Final Rankings

The episode wraps up with final thoughts on the players discussed, emphasizing the balance between risk and reward in drafting strategies. The hosts reiterate the importance of staying informed and adaptable as the fantasy football season approaches.

• Adam Aizer [64:03]: "Derrick Henry, 16, Kyron Williams, 17, Brock Bowers, 18. In our consensus rankings in this full PPR."

Overall, the episode provides valuable insights for fantasy football managers looking to optimize their draft strategies by carefully evaluating the strengths and potential drawbacks of mid-tier players.

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Notable Quotes:

• Adam Aizer: "Chris is going to go the distance." [00:58]
• Dave Richard: "Useless." [03:44]
• Jamie Eisenberg: "He is a round one pick." [18:38]
• Dave Richard: "He's a monster who needs to be fed." [49:08]
• Jamie Eisenberg: "He's awesome." [45:32]

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For more detailed analyses and rankings, tune into the next episode of Fantasy Football Today, where Heath Cummings and Dan continue the discussion on Consensus PPR rankings #19 through #24.

Transcript

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Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Adam]

We are on to the next group of six as we look at more PPR rankings, the consensus PPR rankings. We got a comment here from Corey who was waiting patiently for the show to begin. He said, let's guess 13 through 18, in no particular order. Brian Thomas Jr. Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams, Drake London. Well, that's only five people, not six. But you got three of them right, so I'm going to give you the wrong buzzer. Yes. Brian Thomas Jr's in there, Christian McCaffrey is in there and Kyren Williams is in there. Here is 13 through 18 in the PPR consensus rankings. Would you like a recap of 1 through 12? I think everybody would like a recap of 1 through 12.

[Dave]

Do it.

[Adam]

Bijan Chase, Jefferson, Barkley, Lamb Gibbs. Neighbors. Nakua, Achan Genti, Nico Collins, St. Brown. No one ever calls him Collins, right? It's either Nick Nico or it's the full name. All right, so here's 13 through 18. Christian McCaffrey, 11 spots too low. A.J. brown, Brian Thomas Jr. Derrick Henry, Kyron Williams, Brock Bowers. All right, guys, I have a trivia question for you. Who averaged more PPR fantasy points per game in games they did not score a touchdown? Bijan Robinson or Derrick Henry? Bijan Henry it is Bijan.

[Jamie]

I only said that just to use your. Your train of thought you wouldn't be at. Or Dave's train of thought about your questions you wouldn't be asking us if it wasn't about this, but Dave's learning.

[Adam]

Because it was Bijan. But by how much? How many more? So seven games for Bijan where he did not score a touchdown. Four games for Henry. How many more fantasy points per game did Bijan Robinson average than Henry in those games without touchdowns?

[Jamie]

2 points.

[Adam]

How about 0.5? Derrick Henry 13.9 PPR fantasy points per game in four games without a touchdown. By the way, four games in a row. The only four games all year was a four game stretch mid to late season. Bijan, 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game. I just thought that was super interesting because, you know, people will say about Derek Henry, well, in a PPR league if he doesn't score a touchdown, all right, but maybe he's not so bad.

[Dave]

Do you know how many of those four games were Ravens losses?

[Adam]

Oh, I don't know that.

[Dave]

Useless.

[Adam]

But I probably tell you very quickly. See? One, two, three.

[Dave]

I will tell you very quickly.

[Adam]

He went three and one in those games.

[Dave]

Oh, okay, that's interesting.

[Adam]

Yeah. Including a 2419 loss to the Eagles in which he had 19 carries and three catches. All right, anyway, how many of those.

[Dave]

Games did Rashad Bateman have at least two catches?

[Adam]

All right, let's do some news and notes real quick, and then we'll get into 13 through 18 in the PPR rankings. Cleveland wide receiver Deontay Johnson says he thinks the Browns. He says Kenny Pickett, he saw him running with the ones which. We knew that. But he said he thinks he'll be the starter through the preseason. So, you know, look, it's not. It's Deontay Johnson. It's not the head coach or anything, but there's a vote for Kenny Pickett, at least in the preseason.

[Dave]

I saw a note that Deontay Johnson was running as the primary slot receiver for Cleveland in minicamp, and I thought that that was interesting. And yeah, maybe he should be on the final round radar, so to speak. So we. We get him for like six games, and then he does something to annoy the Browns and he gets cut and then he. He goes to the Bengals to complete his tour of the AFC north teams. Then he gets cut from there. Then he goes to the Argonauts and leads the CFL in receptions.

[Adam]

Okay, well, I will put him on my CFL fantasy team.

[Dave]

That's my analysis for Deontay Johnson.

[Adam]

But it's more about Jerry Judy here.

[Dave]

You know, listen, listen. If Pickett's the guy to begin the year, that's not going to be really good. For Judy, we, we're all rooting for Flacco to be the quarterback because he's so aggressive at throwing downfield ticket might not be and that it would be a little frustrating for people that lean into Judy expecting the same type of target volume that he got last year. I don't think that'll happen.

[Adam]

All right. Nick Cosmetor of the Athletic thinks that RJ Harvey will be a significant part of the offense. He, he downplayed the idea that J.K. dobbins is just going to make or Harvey let you know, not a part of the offense. Basically not a big part of the offense. He, he compared Dobbins and Harvey to the quote type of 12 pairing Peyton has consistently used in his offenses. Okay, we've seen that a lot. We've seen the Ingram Chimera obviously comes to mind. That would be wonderful for both of them. Would require a lot of catches though for Harvey to be really good.

[Dave]

And I don't think he's going to be their best third down option. I think that they want Dobbins to have that role. So the way I kind of look at it is to start the year maybe a little bit of Dobbins on rundowns but more Harvey there third downs Dobbins and then once Harvey gets acclimated it reverses and maybe Harvey gets a little bit more on third downs and Dobbins gets phased to a smaller role assuming he stays healthy. But it could go a number of ways. I really think it's. It's going to be important to pay attention to what goes on in training camp with, with the backfield in Denver. And there's been reports that go the other way saying that J.K. dobbins is going to have a sizable role and it's on. It's to be determined what RJ Harvey will do. So I think this is just something we're gonna have to sit on until mid August at the earliest.

[Adam]

Jenna Lane of ESPN thinks a Mecca Abuka is going to have a big role in the Bucks offense. And Rob Damofsky of ESPN says Matthew golden appears set for a if he's not an immediate starter. Jamie, do you think a Buka is someone that should knock down the fantasy value of Evans and or Godwin?

[Jamie]

Yes. I mean you don't draft a first round receiver with the idea of not playing him at all. And so when you're as talented as he is, he's going to command some level of targets and then you factor in Jalen McMillan as well. So I Think these guys definitely take some level of a hit in their production. You know, I mean, I know for me, I, I have it baked into both guys where I have it. We have them ranked, you know, Godwin's outside the top 24, you know, barely inside the top 30. Part of that is injury. Evans is just inside the top 24. I think anybody taking Evans in the first three rounds is making a mistake. I think anybody taking Goblin, Godwin and probably the first five rounds is making a mistake. I hope I'm wrong because they're extremely talented players and we know what they've been able to produce. But look, if a booker stays healthy and McMillan, you know, gets five, six targets a game, which, you know, may be possible, if Baker's going to throw a lot, then it's going to be a frustrating situation for all four of those guys.

[Dave]

You know, how high would you go on a Buka?

[Jamie]

Oh, he's a double digit round guy. You know, I think once you start looking at, you know, the Adam Thielen, Rasheed Shahid range, you know, those type of guys where either quarterback issue or age or, you know, second receiver on a bad offense, third receiver on a, you know, mediocre offense, you know, like, why would you not take a chance on somebody with that type of upside?

[Adam]

Okay.

[Jamie]

Especially I mean, depending on when you're doing your draft, like best ball drafts, he's potential winner if Godwin's out for the start of the season.

[Dave]

Yeah, I wonder if some of this is or because this isn't the only report on Abuka having a big role. I wonder if some of this has to do with Godwin's progress coming back from his injury. Again, another thing to look at in August.

[Adam]

Yeah, for sure. Don't draft yet. Okay, let's get to it. PPR consensus rankings 13 through 18. McCaffrey, A.J. brown, Brian Thomas Jr. Derrick Henry, Kyron Williams, Brock Bowers. One of the things we talked about on FFT Express yesterday, Dave, was this sort of this moment in the draft in the second round where maybe you don't. We run out of the elite players. The guys have the potential to be elite and obviously we don't really, we don't really know that, but this is just guess based on where we are and I think we get that here, right? I mean, is it at 16 with Derrick Henry or whoever might be 16 for you. Maybe the tight ends should be considered there And Bowers and McBride is not on this list. But we do get to the point in the middle of the second Round where it sort of feels like there's a tier and just overall talent, right?

[Dave]

Yes, but I don't want people to think that, you know, if I don't have somebody in an elite tier that I think that those players aren't good. The, the term that I would use after elite is very good. And there's still players that are must starts in fantasy. I think everybody gets that. I just want to put it out there for me. I want to try and get two of my top 16 players. So that cut off for me is Brian Thomas Jr. And AJ Brown. Guys after that cut off Josh Jacobs, Kyron Williams, a handful of other running backs, including Jonathan Taylor and the breakout running backs from last year, and then Drake, London, Lad McConkey, T. Higgins, they're all very good. They're all fantasy starters. They all should be expected to get in the neighborhood of at least 15 PPR points per game. But I don't think they all have like 20 point per game upside. And that to me, that's just the difference between the guys that are in that those first 16 picks. Derek Henry is in those first 16 even in full PPR. But after those guys, yeah, it's a little bit of a step down in terms of expectations, in terms of ceiling and in terms of floor.

[Adam]

Jamie, how do you see it in terms of the boy we just said in terms of a lot in terms of the elite tier of. Of players.

[Jamie]

I guess my question for Dave would be is if that's how you feel, are you and you have the chance to pick your draft slot, are you picking toward the back end of round one?

[Dave]

We talked about this on the show. I think if, especially if I want to go receiver. Receiver, yes. Back end around one. Like ninth and later. Is that what we figured out, Adam?

[Adam]

I think eighth. I think seventh. Well, we said the top 16.

[Dave]

I think it's ninth.

[Adam]

Oh, yeah. Ninth, right, right, right. Yes, right. 9, 10, 11 as well. 13, 14, 15, 16.

[Jamie]

Ninth.

[Adam]

Yes, that would be ninth or later would get you a top 16 pick. However, I do have to wonder why are we not including Bowers and McBride is, you know, guys, guys who have the chance to be elite, maybe they're not going to score as many Fantasy Points as A.J. brown or something, but their positional advantage I think makes up for that a little bit. Right?

[Dave]

I'll. I'll answer that. It does make up a little bit, but I don't want to, I don't want to pass on a player whose floor is what those tight ends did last year. Okay. Those guys averaged 15 PPR points per game last year. They were awesome. It's going to take a lot of targets, a lot of catches for them to, to meet that in 2025. I'm particularly nervous about that for Bowers compared to McBride. That's why I have McBride first over Bowers and PPR. And I, I, I, as much as I love those guys and I want that positional advantage, I don't want to reach for it. I'd rather go and get a running back or a receiver that has that, that type of floor of 15 ppr points, but has the upside to get me even more. Especially because I, and maybe this is just me. Jamie, you can answer differently if you want. I love a lot of the tight ends that we can find late on draft day. And so I don't, I don't want to reach for one of those tight ends because I, I want to get two of those other tight ends later on round 10 plus nine plus and try and strike gold with one of them.

[Adam]

I was looking for the blood, I couldn't find it. Where's my, why the blood, the late tight ends you love the tight ends you can get later.

[Dave]

Love Bowers last year, dude, it's worked out plenty of times. You have to be right. Obviously you don't want to draft Tyler Higby and then watch him suck for the first four weeks of a season. Yeah, or something like that. But even if you do, worst case scenario, you're streaming the position. You're looking for a guy that can get you 10. You're looking for a guy that can score you a touchdown and maybe get six targets in a game. It's a little bit more work than having a tight end that you know is, is a must start guy, but pretty sure George Kittle's a must start guy and I can get him in round three or round four. Pretty sure Sam Laporta will be a must start guy and you can get him in round four, round five. And then there's always those beautiful late round tight ends.

[Adam]

Just. Bowers and McBride averaged more than 15 points per game last year with a combined seven touchdowns on 300 targets.

[Dave]

So they didn't get, they touched 16.

[Adam]

No, it was like 15, 15.2 for McBride, 15.5 for Bowers, but McBride had two touchdowns, Bowers at five. So I think you could see a scenario where they're scoring 17 points per game or something like that.

[Dave]

Don't take away McBride's rushing. Touchdown.

[Adam]

Okay, fair. All right, Jamie, how do you See, sorry, we should have gotten into McCaffrey by now. But how do you see just this argument about where the elite players end?

[Jamie]

It's a little bit deeper for me because I, I think the tight ends do factor into that conversation. So it's almost like 20 or 21 players. Okay, so I, I don't, I don't necessarily cut it off at that spot, but like Drake London, for example, should be in this group. For me, of, of guys being ranked here and I wonder how much. Again, Heath's rankings are probably significantly different because I know he's much lower on Derrick Henry. He's probably a little higher than I am on Kyron Williams and I know he's, he's, I think Dave and I are McBride over Bowers. So Bowers is probably a little bit higher than he is on MC. He probably has Bowers a little bit higher on McBride.

[Adam]

Yeah, very, very much in the top 200.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I just look at it like McCaffrey's as, as we've discussed, a first round pick if he's right. AJ Brown is not far off from the receivers that we talked about yesterday with Nico Collins and Amara St. Brown and even, you know, Neighbors and Puka. I mean, you could see an easy path for Brian Thomas Jr. To be top five receiver if Travis Hunter spent a lot of time on defense. And I mean, the Jaguars are doing a great job of trying to disguise what they're, what they're doing with everything that Liam Cohen has said throughout minicamp. And I don't know if you guys saw the, the social media posts that they did when he signed his rookie contract. They said they sent out two of them. We have signed rookie wide receiver Travis Hunter to his rookie deal. We have signed rookie defensive back Travis Hunter to his rookie deal simultaneously. They're having fun with it, which is great. Henry obviously, if he's, you know, Derek Henry again is a, is a first round pick and I think he will be in, in, in average opposition by the time we get to August. And then again, you throw in these other running backs of Kyron and Chase Brown and Bucky Irving and, and Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs, as Dave mentioned, you know, they're all sort of in a very close, you know, tier for me. So I think that's why they're second round picks for reason. So, you know, it's, it's, there's a chance for all these guys to, to be, you know, first round picks, borderline first round picks. It's just, you know, the sliding scale on, on how they sort of fall into round two, but especially McCaffrey, Brown, Thomas, Henry and London. For me, I think you make case that they're all first round picks.

[Adam]

All right, we got to take a break. Derek Henry, by the way, has been a top four running back on a per game basis in all three formats in five of the last six seasons. The exception was 2023 when he was disappointing. But top four per game, Derrick Henry in every format. Non PPR, half PPR, full PPR in five of the last six seasons dot okay, we'll be right back after this break. We'll talk about Christian McCaffrey after this.

[Jamie]

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[Adam]

Dominate your fantasy baseball league with Fantasy Baseball Today, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. Join Scott White, Chris Towers and me, Frank Stampfl every weekday as we recap every player from every game.

[Dave]

We'll get you the latest news, waiver.

[Adam]

Wire ads and drops trades to make prospect promotions and everything else you need to take down your league. Make sure to download and follow on Apple podcasts, Spotify and anywhere else podcasts are found. Welcome back. Okay, so Christian McCaffrey is 13th and he's just going to talk about him separately. You know, I do two, usually two at a time here. But McCaffrey, he just stands alone. He's just different. Right. So Jamie, you said if he's right, he's a first round pick. Obviously he's 13th in the rankings. So I don't think anyone's going to argue with him being a first round pick. You and Dave both have him 12th. Heath has him 13th. But, but I mean, what, what's to say that he isn't right? I mean, every single report is that he is right. So honestly, why isn't Christian McCaffrey in the top five?

[Jamie]

I think it's right now versus right three months from now. You know, and that's the concern people have is, you know, you got burned by him pretty badly last season and he's not younger. His, his offensive line has, you know, maybe More concerns than he's had since he's joined the 49ers. And you know, it's fool me once, you know, we've been down this road with him before. When he starts to get injured, it's not usually a one year thing. So I don't, I don't think your theory on it is wrong. Like you know, why would you not if you're going to commit to him in the first round, why would you not commit to him early in the first round if you have one of those selections, if you're so convinced that he's going to do this and then you start to compare him to the other running backs in round one and even the other receivers that have some question marks in round one. So I think it comes down to where you pick and your confidence level on him, how quickly you want to pull the trigger on let's say Isaac Arando. If you want to just make sure you handcuff this 49ers backfill, which is probably smart thing to do. So yeah, he, he is a round one pick. He is fantasy pros ADP. He's 11th would not be surprising right now. Puka's 10, you can easily see that. Malik neighbors is nine because you see him passing him there. Saint Brown eight. Genti is, you know, clearly going to have his, you know, managers that are concerned about that. So could he climb as high as seventh overall? Absolutely. Would not be a shock if that, that to me is probably the cut off because I think the other three running backs will most likely go ahead of him. Of Bijan, Barkley and Gibbs and Bijan on their ADP is number one running back. But yeah, I could see seventh overall right behind CD Lamb.

[Adam]

Yeah, Dave, I was, I was thinking about it this morning, right.

[Jamie]

Why, why shower?

[Adam]

No, I'm a night shower guy. But just to put this in perspective, how Good Has Christian McCaffrey been with the 49ers? So gets traded there in 2022, first game he barely plays. Plays less than 30% of the snaps. Not a lot of work the last 10 games of the regular season in 2022 he averaged 22.5 PPR fantasy points per game, 20.5 not half PPR or 2020 on the dot half PPR fantasy points per game. So that's really good. 2023, he's the number one running back in fantasy. He averages 24.7 PPR fantasy points per game, 22.6 half PPR Fant points per game. He scored 21 touchdowns though in 16 games. He doesn't get as much work as he used to get. He's not 115 catch guy anymore. Is more like an 80 catch guy with the 49ers. So the argument for me against what I've been saying about taking McCaffrey third overall is that he's not he at his best. I still think he's the best running back. It's not so much better than the ceiling for Bijan, the ceiling for Barkley, it's not that anymore. So it might be one to two points better. So that's what you have to factor in. I think he's not what he was in Carolina. He still might be that good as a player, but they don't use him the same way now. Look, they don't have Debo. I use hurt. Maybe they do throw to him more, but just based on what he's been with with the 49ers, he's been amazing, hasn't been super duper amazing like in the past. So maybe that's enough for people to say the difference between his ceiling and Barkley ceiling and Bijan ceiling and Gibbs's ceiling is not enough for me to take him in the top six.

[Dave]

Right. And it's not the same as the ceiling was once upon a time. It's not to say that he can't get back there, but I think you'd bet against it for a 29 year old running back coming off of multiple lower body injuries. And that's, that's the bulk of the case against McCaffrey. If you take out the injury risk and I think everybody kind of views him as a high injury risk, I think if you're going to do that, let's just not forget that he didn't play much last year and so there isn't as much wear and tear on his body. And if he can go through all of training camp without missing any time, you know, they rest him a couple of days a week, something like that, they manage his workload. Then I think you can feel confident enough to take him in late round one. I'm kind of surprised I'm saying it myself because I remember after the season ended last year, I was like, no way. He shouldn't be around one pick. Yeah, maybe he should. Because the upside of getting a guy that can put up 23, 24, 25 PPR points per game with a pick, 10th or 11th, that's pretty good. I would take the chance on it, but Jamie hit on one thing. I don't want him. I Don't want people who take McCaffrey to forget about handcuffing him. This will be something that I think we see a little bit more of from some of these riskier running backs that we're taking earlier is to try and get the backup. Especially in the case of McCaffrey, we think it's going to be Garendo. We saw Garendo play last year. He was pretty good when he had a lot of work in San Francisco. I'd wanna. I'd wanna kind of, you know, ensure the investment in McCaffrey by targeting Garendo in round eight. And so if you. If you're willing to take McCaffrey and Adam, you can do this. If you take him third overall, I would strongly encourage you to commit that round eight pick to Garendo. And then even if you don't take McCaffrey getting Girondo in round nine, round 10, if you see him sitting there, do it.

[Jamie]

Adam, let me ask you a question. How many. As a. As the McCaffrey guy, how many games would you need him to play to justify taking him in the top 10?

[Adam]

Assuming he played all of the fantasy playoffs? Didn't burn me there, I would say 14. I would say miss. I'd be okay with a missing three games.

[Jamie]

Is that the max maximum?

[Dave]

I'd go lower.

[Adam]

Fair. Let me ask you guys this. If I guaranteed you that every player in football was playing 17 games, who would be the first pick in the. Who would be your top three picks in fantasy?

[Jamie]

Chase. Bijan. McCaffrey.

[Dave]

Bijan. Chase Gibbs. McCaffrey would probably be next.

[Adam]

Okay. All right, so look, that's it. They just said on a per game basis, they basically expect McCaffrey to be your top four player. So it's really just a personal risk assessment for. For all of you.

[Dave]

Well put.

[Adam]

And we can move on. But I was the last thing. I think I've said this a couple of weeks ago. My biggest issue with McCaffrey, honestly, is just to keep the streak alive. If I draft Christian McCaffrey in round one, I really don't think I can draft Tyreek Hill in round three. I think that's too much risk.

[Dave]

Well, but what is it is just you're talking about older player coming off of an injury that hurt his numbers.

[Adam]

Yeah. And honestly, before last year, like Christian McCaffrey's 29. Before last year, age 29, looked like a really bad year for running backs. You know, I could give you Melvin Gordon, DeMarco Murray, I think LaShawn McCoy, there were some just bad, bad years. Guys fell off a cliff at 29. And then James Connor and Aaron Jones are both good at age 29. Derrick Henry was unbelievable at age 30. So are we rewriting, you know, what we knew about age 29? There's still that risk with McCaffrey. 29 is not young and he had more, he had more touches than most of those guys entering their 29 age 29 season, even though he's missed so much time with injury. So, yeah, it's just a little too risky. All right, enough about Tyreek Hill. Let's go to AJ Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. They are next in the consensus rankings, 14 and 15. AJ Brown and Brian Thomas Jr. Who do you guys like better?

[Jamie]

Thomas.

[Dave]

They are literally back to back in my rankings. I've got Thomas ahead of Brown.

[Adam]

Okay, so Jamie, why Thomas ahead of Brown? I know it's obviously close. You also have them back to back. Do you, do you have a strong preference or just whatever roll of the dice?

[Jamie]

Right now it's Thomas. That could easily change, you know, again, depending on how strong the reports are in the positive for Travis Hunter playing offense. But I mean, you don't have the rookie season that he had and get the type of play caller that the Bucks got, excuse me, Jaguars got from the Bucks and Liam Cohen. And as good as it may have been for him, from the standpoint of no Kirk and no Ingram and a quarterback that had a YOLO mentality in Mac Jones, I'm hoping that the quarterback talent of Trevor Lawrence is going to be a benefit for Brian Thomas. So he was fed targets. He was awesome. And you go back to this time last year when we were talking about rookie wide receivers following the draft. Oh, yeah, Thomas, he's probably a project. You know, he's young receiver coming out of lsu, made a lot of big plays, but is he going to be a polished receiver? I mean, my God, he was unbelievable. And especially what he did in those final six games. So, you know, that seems like the, the maturation process, the development process has really been accelerated for him. And I think he's going to thrive in this offense, you know, so whether he's the Mike Evans, the Chris Godwin, a combination of the two, you know, Liam Cohen moving these guys around and, you know, just putting his, you know, imprint on it with, with a different passer and, and, and players like the sky's the limit for me. So, you know, I, I think we, we've seen this a few times, like getting neighbors and Thomas at the turn is a Pretty fun way to start your team.

[Dave]

Yes.

[Jamie]

Again, you know, Hunter could take away from that because Kirk and Ingram weren't there. So he was sharing the field with, you know, a bunch of nobodies essentially. And I do think that it does, you know, sort of factor and I know we're going to talk about this on, on FFT Express. You know, some late round veterans, I do think they like Diamond Brown, you know, probably more so than just a throwaway signing. So he's going to get some opportunities. I think Brenton strange to get some opportunities, but I just think the upside for what he showed as a rookie and what's ahead for him in year two, I'm just really excited about him.

[Dave]

Whereas AJ Brown has become a very safe staple for fantasy managers. I think I talked about it on FFT Express yesterday. Three straight years averaging at least 16.7 PPR points per game. Last year he did that on seven and a half targets per game. He had at least 15 PPR points in seven of 13 games. There were four games when he had 15 PPR points even when Saquon also had 15 PPR points. I think we'd all wish that those numbers were a little bit higher. I'm encouraged by the, the note out of Philadelphia that new offensive coordinator Kevin Petullo said they, they want to kind of change up their offense a little bit, maybe throw a little bit more. And we're, we're going to make a bear case for Saquon Barkley. We've already started. I talked about it on yesterday's show. Just the track record of running backs that have 400 plus carries in a season and how they perform the year after that. If, if we're talking about a year where Saquon isn't Saquon or heaven forbid he's not even on the field, we can see an uptick in targets for AJ Brown and that'll make this call of of Brown behind Thomas potentially look foolish. But he's, he feels like a, a safe number one fantasy wide receiver for me. Maybe without that type of upside that BTJ has because we saw a little glimpse of that upside last year with Thomas Jr. And when he was cooking with Mac Jones. I don't want you to think that he was just getting non stop, you know, 20 plus air yard targets. He was getting short area targets too, and he was making plays with them. I do worry a little bit about a lot of those targets going to Travis Hunter this year. And I also went back and looked. There weren't many games Last year, when multiple Tampa Bay receivers each had eight targets in a game. So when we talk about funneling targets, this plays to Diami Brown. Actually, Jamie, when we talk about funneling targets in Jacksonville, and we're assuming, well, Thomas will get a ton and Hunter will get a ton, and no one else will get any, I don't know if that's how Liam Cohen's going to play it. That's not how he played it in Tampa. It does make me a little bit nervous. But what ultimately makes me feel better about BTJ is that his efficiency can get off the charts good. He could get better than how he was last year, and he could really round into the form of one of the most complete receivers in the NFL. And just if you want to look for an example on film of just how quickly he was able to adapt to the game, go look at his touchdown Week 1 against Miami. Heady play, running the back line of the end zone. And it's with Trevor Lawrence at quarterback. I. I think that that's an example of what Brian Thomas Jr. Showed us early on that let us know that he was a more complete receiver than we thought he was when he was a prospect coming out of lsu.

[Adam]

That's one of my favorite throws of the season, actually. You know, not that I've watched every throw, but that Trevor Lawrence touchdown pass against Miami to Brian Thomas Jr. In week one is lost in time. An absolutely incredible throw. Like, just brilliant play. Anyway, so Brian Thomas Jr. You guys do have a head. And, you know, I think. Did you have him ahead of Malik Neighbors before the NFL draft? Just curious.

[Jamie]

Thomas out of neighbors?

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

No.

[Jamie]

No.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

Did you. But Thomas was a solid round one pick for me.

[Adam]

Okay, but. So you moved him down a little bit after they took Hunter.

[Jamie]

You have to.

[Dave]

You have. Because I don't think there's any way he's going to average. What the hell did he average in. In his last few games?

[Adam]

Last four games, on pace for 204 targets.

[Dave]

Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen, Adam.

[Adam]

Yeah, but that's. But that's true. I still think that between him and Hunter, they could have about half the targets on the team.

[Dave]

Probably a little bit more than half. I don't think that. That's crazy to think about, but just a little. Not a lot. He's also not going to average 5.7 targets per game. That's what he had weeks one through 11 before the buy.

[Adam]

Okay, so I'll just give this number. Last nine games of the year. Was when Christian Kirk got hurt. 159 target pace. Evan Ingram only played four. Four or five of them. Whatever. You know, it's not worth going through that, but A.J. brown is worth talking about. Let me know if you guys agree with this. I feel like AJ Brown is super safe. And if you're weighing in the second round, A.J. brown versus a player that you're a little nervous about, maybe you're nervous about Kyron Williams or Josh Jaco. You have your reasons. Whatever. Just take A.J. brown because he's. He averaged 16.7 PPR fantasy points per game last year with the Eagles, throwing for 3,500 yards with him on pace for only 127 targets. The two years before that, he was on pace for about 150 targets. So that's. I don't know how he does worse than 16.7 fantasy points per game. He's been top seven per game, exactly seventh per game in full PPR in two of three seasons with Philadelphia. I mean, he's just. He's just so safe and so reassuring. And if you're worried about that pick, just take AJ Brown. Feel good about it. Is that kind of how you feel?

[Jamie]

Fantasy Pros ADP is insane.

[Adam]

What is it?

[Jamie]

20.

[Adam]

And there's a big difference between him being 15th in our. What is he, 14th in our contest? 21. He's 14th. And 20. 21. That's just a big difference. And that's. That's a steal.

[Jamie]

He's going behind. And again, you know, positions obviously are different for every fantasy manager, but he's going behind Bowers, behind Jacobs, behind London, behind Irving, and behind Jonathan Taylor, if I recall.

[Adam]

Fantasy pros ADP is very heavy at running back. No, it also. No, I think it's heavy wide receiver. Actually. A wide receiver. What'd you say, Dave?

[Dave]

It also takes underdog's best ball ADP into consideration.

[Adam]

All right, so I. How okay with that whole safe thing with A.J. brown. I don't want to discount the upside because, yeah, he did finish his wide receiver seven per game in both 2022 and 2023. But he's, you know, almost 1500 yards both years. One year he had 11 touchdowns. One year he had seven touchdowns. I mean, one year he had 106 catches. One year at 100 and six catches and seven touchdowns. One year he had 88 catches and 11 touchdowns. Well, what if he had 106 catches and 11 touchdowns and still that close to 1500 yards? You probably got a top five receiver there. I don't know, what do you guys think the upside is of A.J. brown.

[Jamie]

In this offense? I think he's probably 100 catches and 10 touchdowns.

[Dave]

Yep.

[Adam]

Wide receiver. What is A.J. brown's upside?

[Jamie]

Oh, six or seven.

[Dave]

I go a little bit higher than that if he's getting those kinds of numbers. And you don't have to look too far back to see the upside with him. I've got it. In 13 games in 2023 with Devonte Smith and Dallas Goddard playing, he averaged 10.1 targets per game and had 19.5 PPR points per game. That was a year where Saquon was On the Giants, DeAndre Swift was on Philly. They threw the ball more. That just makes sense. If he's going to average two and a half more targets per game. Yeah, his numbers are going to go up a lot. And so that's, that's the bull case for A.J. brown is, oh, suddenly Philadelphia can't run the ball as efficiently as they did last year. And when they throw it, A.J. brown's a hero. I don't know how likely that is. I wouldn't put a percentage higher than like 25% on something like that happening. But that's part of the upside case for, for Brown. And obviously the downside case is. I don't even know what the downside case is. Adam. I said it. You said it. He's safe. Those last three seasons is per game average. You can set your watch to it.

[Adam]

All right, let's take a break and talk about Derrick Henry when we come back, Derek Henry, Kyren Williams, Brock Bowers, who should go first in that group? We'll be right back.

[Dave]

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[Adam]

Derrick Henry, 16, Kyron Williams, 17, Brock Bowers, 18. In our consensus rankings in this is full PPR, can you make a case for Kyron Williams to be the first in that trio?

[Jamie]

I mean, you certainly can. He's been awesome the last two seasons, you know, and looking at his production in a contract year, you know, there's two ways to look at it. He's going to, you know, hopefully go crazy because he wants to get paid. And maybe the other side of that is the Rams are going to run into the ground because they want to move on from him and not have to pay another running back and maybe follow the mistakes that they had with Todd Gurley. So I think the, the concern would be is they spend another draft pick on another running back that they seem to like a lot. And this is one of the best teams that we've seen in the less need era of finding, you know, late round picks, Kyron Williams in particular, you know, and getting great production out of them. Now the flip side of that is they drafted a running back last year and barely used him in Blake Corum because Kyron's been so, you know, I don't want to say extremely productive because they don't get a lot of big plays out of their run game, but he's just does the things that you ask him to do. And this is, you know, kind of these conversations we have about veterans versus, you know, maybe players who are more explosive. But he's been productive in this role. You know, he scores touchdowns, he does enough in the passing game, fumbles a little bit at times, but still not enough. I think that's a hindrance to him. And clearly he's been their guy. And, you know, you, you hear Sean McVeigh talk about it. You know, I, I know I spoke to Kyron at the Pro bowl two years ago and this was coming off his first big season. He was just had come back, you know, talk about a guy that loves to play football. Came back to the Pro bowl clearly his first time. He had just broken his finger in the playoffs, if you recall, came back and played in the Pro bowl, you know, a few weeks later. So kids a baller and, and has been awesome. I don't think it's a shock to say that he can be among the touchdown leaders at the position and certainly can be, you know, around that 20 point per game number that we love at that spot.

[Dave]

He's got to be. He's got to be more effective and he's got to hold on to the damn ball. He had four fumbles lost last year, including the one in the playoffs win when they were down one point in the fourth quarter to start the fourth quarter against Philadelphia. And he costs up the ball and the Rams couldn't recover. He effectively had the same amount of touches he had from 2023. He averaged fewer yards per carry, yards per catch, yards before contact, yards after contact, fewer fantasy points for him. He went from 21.2 to 17.0. He had a higher rate of negative rush yards, a lower rate of avoided tackles. And, and if he continues to fumble without improving his efficiency and if the Rams really. I think one of the reasons why they didn't pull Kyron last year is because they didn't like what they were getting out of Blake Corm in practice. And they didn't see anything with Blake Corum, and clearly they didn't. They're. They're not in love with Blake Corm. Otherwise, I don't know if they would have drafted Hunter. Hunter's an interesting back. I don't think he's necessarily, you know, a dynamo, but if he can come to camp and prove that he can handle some work, Sean McVay might not have a tough time sitting Kyron Williams. And you talk about the contract and Kyron clearly is motivated for a new deal. Are the Rams just kicking it down the road? They keep saying we're close, we're close. I don't know how much that's going to end up being a factor. All I know is I don't feel like the same type of ceiling is there for Kyron as I did this time last year. He had a season, like I said, 21 fantasy points per game in PPR. That's what you're hoping for him doing in 2024, he fell by 20%. I wonder if that number comes down just a little bit more again this year. That's why he's a clear second round pick for me and not one that I'm necessarily in love with. I would reluctantly take him in round two and I would also look to get Hunter. I don't have to. I don't have to reach for him in round eight. I think I can get Jarquez Hunter in round 10, round 11 to have in case there's a change at running back in la.

[Adam]

Yeah. One of the things that I mentioned last year about Kyron Williams, who averaged 5 yards per carry in 2023 when he was the number two running back per game, he had such an easy schedule. He did not face a single team that finished the year. Was that go ahead. No, I know I'm. Mine is a great segue. Right. He didn't. In 2023, Kyron did not face a single team that finished the season in the top 10. 10 in yards per carry allowed to running backs. Eight of the 12 opponents he faced were bottom 10 in yards per carry allowed to running backs. It was so easy. And he went from 5 yards per carry to 4.1 yards per carry. And this is not a guy who hits big plays. As Jamie mentioned, it's not a home run. Thready. I think he had two carries last year of more than 20 yards. So Dave, what were you. I know we have a segue here with the schedule.

[Dave]

Sure. So you guys know that I like to study the defense at about this time every single year I finish my Studying of all 32 defenses, grade each defense both from, you know, passing perspective, secondary, how they cover tight ends, how they cover running backs, how they do against the run. And I believe that Kyron Williams has one of the toughest early season schedules and I don't think I needed to do a whole study to prove it in the first six weeks. The only easy matchup Kyron Williams has will be against Tennessee and Indianapolis. And I kind of like Indianapolis's run defense. I think that they could be a tough unit. His other games are against the Texans, Eagles, Niners, Ravens. Think about those defenses. Texans, Eagles, Niners, Ravens, those are tough matchups for any running back. He played against two of those teams twice each last year he had one game with more than 13.2 PPR points, one game with more than 11.2 non PPR points against the Niners and Eagles combined. So I, I'm. I can, I am getting more and more nervous about Kyron Williams. I've got him ahead of Josh Jacobs right now. I could see myself changing that in the very near future and taking Jacobs, who doesn't have an easy schedule either either. But I, I might like him better just overall opportunity, talent, etc over Kyron Williams.

[Jamie]

Kyron's fantasy pros, ADP is behind Jacobs, Irving, Taylor and oh, he's behind those other guys. For me, yeah, it's A bit.

[Adam]

What do you think? Yeah. Where do you have him, Jamie?

[Jamie]

I haven't had of those guys for now.

[Adam]

It's interesting is we are being really negative on Kyron Williams. All he's done is produce. Right, Right.

[Jamie]

That's the thing. One other thing is obviously the lyric Jackson, you know, health status, you know, offensive line could be taking a hit if he's not there.

[Adam]

Also Dave, I'm not Quite sure. The 49ers scare me right now. Their defense is completely different than it was a year ago.

[Dave]

I like, I like the youth they added on the D line. I, I think it's actually I, I like the line but obviously Fred Warner's a stud but I like that, that green law obviously with his injury isn't there D winners will play. I, I'm not ready to rule out that Niners run defense as being one of the better units in the league. I'm not going to say they're top five, but they're still going to be a tough out for him.

[Jamie]

It's also the return of Salah is going to help too.

[Adam]

Yeah, big time. Good movie.

[Dave]

But that's going to be. That'll be more effective for the pass rush than it will be for the run.

[Adam]

All right, Jamie, tell me why Derrick Henry is not a first round pick for you after he. I say this all the time. Average as many ppr. PPR fantasy points per game as Bijan Robinson. He did that with only 19 carries catches.

[Jamie]

I mean he's awesome. You know, it's just a matter of how much longer is he going to continue to defy Father Time. And he keeps proving us wrong. The people like me who are, you know, ageist and, and worry about these things and worry about him breaking down and he just doesn't. And, and it's hopefully going to continue until he just decides to retire. But you know, the fact that he went to Baltimore and this was the argument for him was that his numbers the previous season and really his entire career but numbers previous season were so much more dramatic because of the lack of wins in Tennessee. But he was so much better with the Titans when they won those games in 2023. The feud that they did that he goes to the Ravens where Harbaugh averages 10 wins a year during his career and he was exceptional and so he doesn't have to catch the ball the way that he performs the touchdowns that he scores and you know, now on a much more productive team across the board. So gonna be or he's 31 now, you know, turned 31 in January. Running backs just don't continue to produce at this age. Historically, however, the great ones do. And he's great. And so I think it's just time. I know I've, you know, just put my. My feelings on his age and, you know, concerns. Just decide at this point, okay, he's late round one, early round two selection, if you're looking for a running back in that range. So right after, for me, it's McCaffrey. These are. This is the spot for him. So again, late round one, early round two. If you are, you know, so inclined to just continue to buy into him completely, he's probably again, going back to, you know, the. The names I listed after CD Lamb. So starting with Genti at seventh overall, you can make a case that that's where Derek Henry belongs, because we could, hey, you know, McCaffrey has risks. Well, Henry hasn't shown those risks, and he's, you know, two years older. And so clearly how they get their job done is different. But, you know, at the end of the day, you want those fantasy points, and Derrick Henry has continually given you those fantasy points, those fans, that fancy production. He's just awesome.

[Dave]

You can make the case that Derrick Henry should be a top five pick in full ppr.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Because when things go right for him, things are awesome. How many. How many touches per game do you think he will average this year, guys?

[Jamie]

21, 22 touches per game.

[Adam]

20? Yeah, 20 to 22, I guess.

[Dave]

Okay, well, there were 14 games last year where he had at least 14 touches, and he averaged 21.4 PPR points per game in those 14, 20.2 non PPR points per game. He scored 15 touchdowns. He had 10 games with at least 100 total yards and two more with 96 total yards. He also had three games with 11 or fewer touches. I. I'd have to really look into those games to see why he only had 11 or fewer touches. And he predictably stunk in those games. He did have three touchdowns. I. I think it's pretty simple at this point, that he's a. A monster who needs to be fed. The Ravens don't. They've got other backs there. They've got, you know, smaller guys. Justice Hill and. And Keaton. Mitchell's healthy and he's running real fast. He said he ran over 23 miles an hour recently. I think that's cool. But they're not going to use those guys when they've got a horse like Henry in the backfield. You know, he's Going to get the ball at the goal line. As long as he gets a decent amount of work every single week, he's a slam dunk. And so it's, it's, it's almost the same type of thing that we said about McCaffrey. How much risk are you willing to take? But it's, it's easier. It's. It's seemingly easier to take the risk with Henry because he hasn't pulled a McCaffrey where he's missed almost an entire season because of an injury popping up. And he didn't have back to back terrible years. There just isn't any. There are no signs of Derrick Henry wearing down.

[Adam]

Well, I don't know. There were though. That's the thing. Like he, There were when his last three years in Tennessee averaged 4.2 to 4.4 yards per carry, which really just wasn't good for him. He wasn't, he wasn't as good. I think before contact, he was good after contact.

[Dave]

And then what changed? Opportunities change, right?

[Adam]

I know, but it was a surprise. And to me, anyway, I, I didn't see him going from 4.2 yards per carry to 5.9 yards per carry. And that I think is coming down. 5.9 yards per carry is not happening again. I'm actually less concerned about. He averaged about a touchdown per game. I'm less concerned about that with Henry than I am with the 5.9 yards per carry. But they, you know, but if he doesn't average 5 to point 9 yards per carry, it's gonna be harder to score all the touchdowns. He probably won't have quite as many long ones, I would assume so. I, I just, I think he overachieved last year, as great as he is. And by the way, with the catches, you know, if you're worried about the catches with Henry, I mentioned five of the last six years, he's been top four per game in every format. In three of those years, he's averaged 1.1 to 1.2 catches per game. Always does it. I just don't know how efficient he's going to be because 5.9 yards per carry is, is. You cannot expect anything close to that for anyone.

[Jamie]

I don't know how much of a decline it'll be because of the team that he plays on.

[Dave]

Right.

[Jamie]

Lamar Jackson's threat is so dramatic and what he does as a passer, obviously as a rusher, the, you know, the RPOs, all those things that they do in this offense to create space for their run game. I Mean, it's just, it was the perfect marriage. And you know, you saw it. He was, you know, at one point, you know, people were saying, why is Lamar Jackson an MVP when he has maybe an MVP in his backfield as well? Like, you know, there's, there's just so much to love about what Derek Henry did last year. So, yeah, maybe it goes, what do you say, 5.9? Yeah, so maybe it's 5.2. You know, maybe it's 4.9. Like, you know, he could use it, lose a yard and still be very successful. It's just, you know, I, I think just by nature of this really, that again, I, I'll say it, and I've been probably the, the most anti Derek Henry on the show for years is. It's just an injury. I, I don't think it's a production thing or a performance thing at this point. Within. That's gonna, you know, maybe he slows down a little bit, but I don't think he's coming off the field. The catches haven't mattered for him, as you alluded to. Unless he misses a significant stretch of the season, I have a hard time not seeing him be in the top 10 at this position.

[Adam]

Okay, so then you guys have him. Dave has him 14th overall, Jamie has Henry 16th overall, and Heath has Henry 21st overall. But let's finish with Brock Bowers here because.

[Dave]

Wait, just quickly on Henry.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Dave]

The other reason why you're not seeing him is a top 10 pick in our PPR rankings is the ceiling argument. You don't, you never want to draft a guy too close to his ceiling. And I think because of the injury risk. Although this is the point I really want to make. How many soft tissue injuries have. Has Derek.

[Jamie]

That's the thing. He's not, he's not an injury nothing.

[Dave]

Chris McCaffrey had two last year.

[Jamie]

You can't call him an injury risk based on.

[Adam]

Right.

[Dave]

He literally like broke his foot in half.

[Jamie]

Yep.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

And it was after 2000 yard season.

[Adam]

And he kept playing. Right.

[Dave]

He did well. He did. And then he didn't.

[Jamie]

Yeah.

[Adam]

For the rest of the game. Okay, so Brock Bowers. Dave, I think you should start on Bowers. Is you're super low on him compared to consensus. Heath has Bowers 12th, Jamie has him 19th, and Dave has Bowers 26th. And that's how you get 18th in the consensus rankings. Not even a second round pick for you. Just, just after. And one spot behind McBride.

[Dave]

Sure. Raiders were top five in pass rate last year. They didn't have a run game. Their defense was atrocious. They had to throw the ball a lot. And Bowers was that guy for them that bailed out their terrible quarterbacks game after game. 8.7 targets per game, 6.6 catches per game. It's all changing now. It's a different offensive scheme. It's going to be one that's going to be more run focused. That's going to bring down the number of pass attempts per game they're going to have. Their defense is going to be healthier. They should be schemed better than they were last year. That's going to give fewer opportunities for everybody in the offense. But certainly the addition of Genty and the dedication of the run that both Carol and Chip Kelly will have will impact the amount of opportunities per game that Brock Bowers will give you. And so I, it's, it's nitpicky, but I just. He's going to be one player that I'm definitely not going to reach on. Certainly don't want to draft him close to what he did last year. I think McBride will catch more passes provided that he stays healthy. And I just really believe that Bowers is a great talent. Top two fantasy tight end, a stud. I don't want to reach for him knowing that the entire environment has changed in, in Las Vegas. I don't even care. Like, there's stuff out there about, well, Chip Kelly's never had a tight end and a prolific role in his offense. Like, dude, I don't care. That doesn't matter because Bowers is the best pass catcher they have. But he's just, he's not going to get quite as many opportunities as he did last year.

[Adam]

Jamie, you're higher at 17th or 19th. Was it sorry on Brock Bowers.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I agree with what Dave said in a lot of that. I think the opportunities will be a little bit better, though, even if they come down from the target percentage, because I think the quarterback's gonna be better. You know, I mean, Geno Smith coming in, I think is better as a, as a proven quarterback than what he was dealing with last year. And yes, the environment has changed, but I think overall it's changed for the better, you know, so, you know, you, you hope that again, what he was doing was so raw last year and now he has a better understanding of what his, his job is, what his role is, what the league is, what defenses are, you know, that he just continues to show. As we see from a lot of these guys, typically, it's the breakout in Year two at this position, like, can you imagine if he somehow manages to get better? Like this is a kid that, you know, showed one of the best rookie seasons ever at this position and really one of the best rookie seasons ever, period, in any position. You know, offensively, it's hard not to buy into the talent and what he still can be and continue to become. So, so I don't want to take him in round one. I, I think, you know, Heath is definitely drafting him at a ceiling. He's taking him 12. And I again, I think Trey McBride's going to see not a spike in touchdowns, but a bump in touchdowns. And I think what we saw at the end of last year where they were trying to feed him the ball in the red zone and trying to get him more involved in that aspect of the game somewhat carries over this year. So I think the touchdowns will be closer if not in his favor. Not that Bauer scored a lot, but I think, you know, there's a reason that these two guys should be drafted even ahead of Kittle and, and I'm a big kiddo guy this year. I think he's around three pick. If they hit to their ceiling, like we could be talking about the next Kelsey Graham, Kelsey Kittle, you know, these guys could wreck fantasy. You know, you said it, Adam. Like, you know, the, the position edge you get with McBride and Bowers could be so dramatic. Like we're talking about these guys as first round picks in 2026 and you.

[Adam]

Guys have McBride one spot ahead of Bowers, both of you. Heath has Bowers 12th, McBride 23rd. The way I see it between those two is they were pretty much dead even last year with both of them having bad touchdown luck. Obviously McBride being in his third season and Bowers being in his first season. People are going to favor Bowers in that side of the argument. But, but as, as you guys just laid out, so much has changed for Bowers and is it positive, is it negative? That's up for you to decide. Yes, he gets the quarterback upgrade, he gets the coaching upgrade, but also the Genti factor, the run heavy nature of, of Pete Carroll. I think that's a little bit overrated, but it's a lot more than, yeah, fourth most past attempts in the NFL last year for the Raiders. You know, it's a lot more run heavy than what we, what the Raiders were last year. Nothing's really changed for McBride like Marvin Harrison having more confidence and Marvin Harrison putting on weight, which may or may not be a good thing. It's just nothing changed. And McBride's done it two years in a row because after Ertz went down in 2023, McBride was unbelievable. So is that kind of what you guys are thinking, why McBride is ahead of Bowers for you guys?

[Dave]

Exactly.

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Adam]

I'll be at one spot for you. Okay. And yeah, I guess the last thing I would say. Does this matter at all to you? Going into his second season, Kyle Pitts was the 33rd pick in ADP on Fantasy Pros. He had a terrible second season. He only played 10 games. He had 356 yards going into his second season. Sam Laporta was the 32nd pick in Fantasy Pros ADP, almost identical to Kyle Pitts. He did not have a terrible season, but he was the number nine tight end per game after being the number three tight end per game the year before. Brock Bowers is currently, I think, 18th, actually in fantasy pros ADP. So that's a round and a half ahead of Pitts in La Porta. But those two guys were coming off terrific rookie seasons. Not as good as Bowers. I know. Had high ADPs. Round three, they were bare brutal.

[Jamie]

So if. If you're going to use the pits comparison, you have to think that Geno Smith is a downgrade from the quarterbacks that the Raiders had last year. And the only reason I say that is because Pitts went from Matt Ryan, who was a guy that Arthur Smith trusted and threw the ball a lot more, to the crap that he went to in year two.

[Adam]

Yeah, horrible.

[Jamie]

Desmond Ritter and Terrell Heineke.

[Adam]

And they also added Drake London that year, and he had 117 targets. Drake, London, rook as a rookie.

[Jamie]

Fair. I don't think Jack Bash is the same prospect.

[Adam]

Right.

[Dave]

It's not Bash. It's. It's Thornton. And I don't think Thornton is the same type of prospect. The common thread between Pitts and Laporta is injuries. Pitts got hurt in season, his knee was messed up. I don't know if he even recovered from it. Two years later, and Laporta was banged up to start the year, and then once he started to feel better, his numbers went up.

[Adam]

Yeah, all right. I just want to throw that out. I was probably. You can get a little bit of trouble trying to make all these comparisons, and that kind of came up.

[Dave]

Actually, Bowers is a stud.

[Adam]

Yeah, that kind of came up earlier in the show where someone in the chat said all the arguments you're making against McCaffrey you were making against Barkley last year. Somewhat true. And I guess one thing I would say is all the arguments we're making against Derrick Henry we were making against Derrick Henry last year. But just because they were wrong last year doesn't necessarily mean they're going to be wrong again this year. It's, you know, you can. Well, this worked out in 2024, so it's going to work out in 2025. Not necessarily.

[Dave]

I mean, if there was evidence on film that Derrick Henry looked a step slower toward the end of last year, I think we'd recognize that and we would, and we would absolutely factor that in. But there really isn't any sign of that.

[Adam]

I want to try to read a couple emails here, except I haven't gone through them, so I'm just going to pick some from my inbox. This one is from Ty from a city west of Seattle.

[Dave]

West of Seattle. Shanghai, China.

[Adam]

Dear Andrew, Miles, Aaron and tj Those would be Pacers who are some players that their value is so tied to volume that in half PPR their value actually falls significantly. So I guess that's target volume.

[Dave]

Yep.

[Jamie]

Or carries.

[Adam]

But in half PPR those guys would go up in half ppr. The guys whose carries are. Unless you're saying they don't get a lot of carries. I don't know. There's a lot of guys that fit this description. But who are some wide receivers that catches we should say are so important that their values drop significantly in half ppr? Or tight ends.

[Jamie]

Oh, I'm sorry, I misread the question, McBride.

[Dave]

Yeah, it's. It's guys like that think high target volume low. Everything else knock up touchdowns. Right. Like I'm trying to find players that had like a four point difference on a per game average from full PPR to half ppr. Here's one that's interesting. Jamar Chase. Not that I'm saying you're gonna pass on Chase. With an early round you can have PPR. 3.7 point difference between full PPR and half PPR.

[Adam]

Really?

[Dave]

Chase?

[Adam]

Yeah, Chase is, is kind of an interesting player because he was this kind of downfield threat I believe as a rookie. And ever since then the Bengals have been so short area with their passing game. It's really weird. And he doesn't really have that high of an adot and he doesn't you. We've seen him make explosive plays. But Jamar Chase's explosive play rate might surprise you. It's not what you think.

[Dave]

Shakir went from shakir. Yeah, that's 1:12.2 to 9.6.

[Adam]

I want to get to two guys like Jamie said, like you talked about McBride and Puka, are you just assigning them low touchdown totals? Basically? You expecting that?

[Jamie]

I mean, that's kind of been their history. Right. So.

[Dave]

There'S no reason to believe it's going to change.

[Jamie]

I think again, to what level is. Is hard to, you know, qualify because he's never been eight touchdown guy. Certainly never been a ten touchdown guy. You know, can he be a six, seven touchdown guy? You can tell I've been hanging around a lot of teenagers late 6, 7 that they say all the time. The, the, the way that he has gotten his numbers done has been high volume receptions and the yard. So Puka, the same thing was he scored nine in his career.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Jamie]

So I think so. It's, it's not, it's not a lot.

[Dave]

To 10 if you include rushing 10.

[Jamie]

To sit here and say like, oh my gosh, they're going to be, you know, dynamic touchdown producers. So every change in format is going to hurt them a little bit.

[Adam]

All right, that's the only email we're reading. Thank you very much, everybody. We will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy football today as we wrap up the cont census top 24. And no Dave tomorrow and no Jamie tomorrow, right? Sad.

[Jamie]

Nope. We both have to stay tournament.

[Dave]

We both have little league coaching to.

[Adam]

Do, but Heath and Dan will be talking about 19 through 24 in the consensus rankings. Have a great day, everybody. Talk to you tomorrow.

[Jamie]

I can't wait to change all my rankings. So it just throws everything away.

[Adam]

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