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Dan's FADE List! 5 Big-Name Fantasy Stars Who Could CRASH in 2025 (06/12 Fantasy Football Podcast)
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- [00:00]
Jamie Eisenberg
We got Dan's bus list. Here on Fantasy Football Today Express, we're going to find out who Dan Schneier does not like heading into the 2025 season. Welcome to FFT Express. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dan Schneier. We're looking at Dan's bus list. Five players he's probably avoiding, I guess, unless they fall to the right spot. We'll find out Dan's take on guys like Chase Brown, Jackson Smith, Najigba, Ken Walker. Man, you don't like the Seahawks. Alvin Kamara and Chris Godwin. Dan, let's start with Chase Brown, the number one player on your bus list. When would you take Chase Brown? What concerns you about him for this upcoming season?
- [00:32]
Dan Schneier
Let me start by saying it's a fade list. Jamie. Kind of like what Adam was supposed to get for St. Jude a couple years ago but refused to for no good reason other than his wife had an important phone call at the time. Quote unquote important phone call. But as far as what Chase Brown scares me, I feel like the perfect everything had to break perfectly for him to have the season he had last year. Zach Moss, who was supposed to be a big part of that backfield, had to get injured. The Bengals had to have no one in. No one they drafted in the middle rounds or anything like that to replace him with. They traded for Herbert. It was too late. He couldn't gracious. Now they brought in Taj Brooks who I really like his film and I think they have a plan at running back here and I'm not so sure the role will be the same for Brown. So that's the starting point there. The second part of it is while I did like him a lot last year, he was one of my favorite draft picks. He was on a lot of my teams and I called him as a sleeper here. I liked him when I could get him at that price point. Now with the price point in the mid-40s like this just feels like we're buying him at his peak. So it's almost like a situation where I don't necessarily see the ceiling being reached again. And so I don't want to be the guy drafts him. As far as where I'd be comfortable drafting him, more like round six range for me, it's fine.
- [01:36]
Jamie Eisenberg
Round five, six, he's never gonna get there. So yeah, probably not getting chased. Are you targeting Taj Brooks? Are you targeting with late round picks?
- [01:43]
Dan Schneier
I like Taj Brooks late. Yes.
- [01:45]
Jamie Eisenberg
Okay. Makes some sense if you're anti Chase Brown. Take a look at the other guy in the backfield. I I just look at what there was there. There was no like significant investment to, to replace him. You know, Brooks wasn't a high draft pick in the NFL draft. P Ryan is a guy that was with this coaching staff and you know, makes some sense to bring back a guy for depth. I wonder if Zach Moss will make the final roster. I'm still comfortable with Chase Brown as a, as a borderline top 10 running back. I think there's just huge upside. And if you want to hear more about Chase Brown, we talked about this on Wednesday's episode talking about running backs in the range of 9 through 16. So a little bit more in depth conversation on Chase Brown, but this is the anti Chase Brown version of maybe trying to avoid him. Let's go with the two Seahawks guys next. Dan, you got JSN and Ken Walker as guys you're looking to fade. Tell us why.
- [02:30]
Dan Schneier
So Seahawks are a big fade team. For me. One of my favorite non fantasy plays is the Seahawks under on win. Total reason being I don't think they've done enough to address their offensive line, which was their main issue last year. And I think in addition to that, they took a major downgrade at quarterback going from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold. When I went back and watched some tape of Geno Smith, I was kind of surprised at how good he was last year given how bad the stats were. I think a lot of that was because the system wasn't great and the offensive line was terrible. Well, I'm not sold that the offensive line is going to improve. And while I like Clint Kubiak's system there and I think that's an upgrade for sure, I don't trust Sam Darnold outside of that situation. So I'm kind of fading everything there. When it comes to the Seahawks. Jsn, who had big catch numbers, big target numbers, was the kind of main play in that offense last year. I don't think that's gonna, I don't think they're gonna be as successful in the past game. And as far as Ken Walker goes, to me, I really just can't understand where he's ranked. I get it. The flashes kind of make him, you know, put him in a mindset, put fantasy management mindset could be there, but he's been injured so often. Charbonnet's in that backfield as well and I don't trust their offense or offensive line.
- [03:33]
Jamie Eisenberg
His offensive line could still be a concern. Clearly you Know, the, the positive, I guess for JSN is that if Darnold, you know, went through this car wash of, you know, Shanahan in San Francisco for the year, he was the backup and then Kevin o' Connell and just got better coaching that he showed with Justin Jefferson. I don't think you should expect Justin Jefferson numbers, but he showed he can support an elite level talent. And if JSN is a few tiers down, which is where he's being draft fantasy wise, I think anybody would put him, you know, a few tears down NFL wise that hopefully the breakout can come in year three. And you know, just looking at the two games where DK Metcalf was out, the numbers were at least one game was, you know, astronomical against the Rams, but he put up good numbers in those two games, got the targets, you know, the production was there. So, you know, I'm, I'm okay with jsn, you know, as a, you know, high end wide receiver too. But your concerns are valid looking. If Cooper cup is anything close to being healthy, he's going to be a factor. And we saw what Kubiak did, for what it's worth with MVS in New Orleans. You know, that's a guy that he brought with him to Seattle. So that'll be a few targets that go in that direction. And I think if you're in the pro Ken Walker camp and probably anti JSN camp, you're looking at it as they are making a pretty big emphasis to try and make the run game better. And if the run game is better, it's going to clearly impact the passing game and jsn, who's going to share some targets now with some other guys. The thing that I do like about Walker though is I think from what we've seen, yes, the big plays are definitely there. Yes, the injuries are definitely there. If the role in the passing game stays somewhat close to what it was last year, then he's got the upside to be a top 10 guy. And we saw it just in terms of how his numbers compare to, you know, James Cook, for example, who led the NFL or tied for the NFL lead in touchdowns. So depending again on what side you come out with these players, I like the upside. Obviously Dan's, you know, a little bit concerned, but the environment may not be the best for both of these guys. If Seattle's not going to win many games, we're gonna take a quick break here on FFT Express. We come back, we'll get into Album Kamara and Chris Godwin. His guys, Dan is looking to fade. All right, Dan, let's just stick with going from Ken Walker to Camara. Guys that are being drafted in similar ranges. Look, the environment for Seattle may be bad. The environment for the New Orleans Saints could be the worst in the NFL because Derek Carr is no longer there and we don't know who the quarterback will be and camara is now 30 years old. So is this a format thing for you or is this across the board? You're looking to fade him?
- [05:51]
Dan Schneier
It's across the board fade. Obviously, in pbr, I'd be more willing to take him at this current value. But where I see him ranked for us and others in half PPR and standard, I. That's just a range I would never even consider. Alvin Khmer, given what the situation is. And I think you laid it out best. I think when you look back at what's made Camara be a kind of a surprise fan of success the last two seasons, a lot of it has to do with Derek Carr. A lot of it has to do with the fact that Derek Carr's just checking down to him so often and just throwing him these passes so often. It's part of who Derek Carr was. Tyler Shuck or whoever the heck starts there, which I don't even know if it'll be shock. We could be looking at some really bad games. Some of those Rattler games last year and Hayner games last year were just punt, punt 170 yards of total offense. That's not enough to get Khmer going, even if he gets six receptions or a few less than what he got. So maybe in PPR leagues, I can be open to the idea of it, but not in the range where he's being drafted. For me, when it comes to these guys like Marin, it's just they're drafted too high for where I would like to take them. Khmer is one of my bigger fades, though, across the board this year.
- [06:51]
Jamie Eisenberg
This is the one guy we agree on. I. I try to avoid Camara, you know, again, anybody listen to us how I feel about older players at this position? And look, I was burned last year. I think a lot of us were that, you know, tend to avoid guys that are 29, 30 years old. This position. Derek Henry was great. Joe Mixon was great. You know, the only one that really struggled was. Was McCaffrey. But Camara did miss three games at the end of the season with a groin injury. And who knows what will happen this year. I think the competition behind him may be the best that he's had in several years if Devin Neal is anything of significance. And finally a coach that may believe in Kendra Miller, given what Dennis Allen, you know, was, you know, hesitant to use him. So we'll see if he's off the field a little bit more. Now. He does have the benefit of not potentially losing some of those short yardage carries to Taysom Hill because we don't expect Hill to be ready at the start of season, maybe at all. But I think like you said, and, and I totally agree, they may not score very many points to begin with, so he may not have those touchdown opportunities no matter who he's sharing the ball with. So PPR 75 plus catches is probably what will save him. Nine and a half PPR could be, you know, pretty ugly. Last guy here we have is Chris Godwin. Coming back from the ankle injury. He is going to be at a discounted cost. He's going to go probably three rounds after Mike Evans, two rounds at the minimum. Where are you comfortable taking Godwin and is it injury related? Is it performance related? Is it competition now are you concerned about or what are you concerned about with Chris Godwin?
- [08:09]
Dan Schneier
It's like a seven, it's like a 80, 20, 90, 10 for me. 80 being the injury, 10, 20 being the competition and the targets they've added to that offense. Players like McMillan, who I really like and Ibuka, who may be the new young version of what Godwin is, but it's 80 injury. I just think why am I comfortable drafting a player in the top 60 which is where he's currently being ranked and going over a lot of really talented players. Travis Hunter, Caleb Johnson, who I love, the fit, RJ Harvey, Devonte Smith even sometimes goes in that range. Jameson Williams, healthy players on good offenses. Not that Godwin's not on a good offense, he is, but healthy players. For a guy that's been injured at multiple points of his career and is now coming off a very serious injury, I don't know that he's going to be 100% for week one and I don't know that he's going to be 100% this season at all and be his full self. So I do love Godwin as a player, but he's an older player now coming off another major injury. It's just too rich for me at that price point when giving up when the opportunity cost is missing out on some of the players I mentioned.
- [09:08]
Jamie Eisenberg
Totally makes sense. You know, the, the, the concern I think is, is valid with what the target potential could be with a new Offense coordinator again, third year in a row they have a new offense coordinator. The investment in Abuka who's shown that his best role is probably playing in the slot, that's where Godwin's best role has obviously been in his career. The one thing that I keep coming back to Godwin on is it's not a ligament situation. It was a broken ankle that hopefully will heal and that they just gave him the contract extension, you know, and, and this was one thing that I, I mentioned going into free agency, if it was like a one year, hey, we don't think you're going to be ready, but we'll give you an opportunity to prove yourself. You've been one of our guys, you know, you, you've, you've, you know, taken us through a couple different tenures of coaches and you know, won a Super bowl for us. They gave him a three year deal and then they still go out and draft a Buka. And is that more an indication on what they think of Godwin or where they're planning for the future with Evans, who's going to be 32 and so how this all sort of, you know, plays itself out with McMillan coming off the strong finish, you know, and so I'm still comfortable with Godwin in the range that he's going. I do not want to reach for him. It's more of a settle for type of play. But last year he was so awesome. He was so much better than Evans. In the seven games they were healthy. He was five points per game better in PPR. He was averaging over 19 PPR points per game. Evans was at 14. And we know Evans finished and how he typically does. I just can't get past that. What Baker and Godwin have meant to each other. We'll see if you know, the new coaching staff, new office coordinator at least, you know, has those same feelings. But I certainly, you know, understand your concerns about Godwin injury related and you know, coming back with, with more significant competition. So we'll see how that all plays out. That's Dan's five guys again. That's Chase Brown, jsn, Ken Walker, Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin. They're fades, not bus. They're players that he is avoiding at their current ADPs. See where their ADP settles as we get closer to August. For Nanch Nyer. From Tom Schaefer, I'm Jamie Eisberg. Thanks for watching, thanks for listening. Definitely Express Paramount Podcasts.