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Devil's Advocate! Refuting Dave and Jamey's Breakouts/Busts (07/21 Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:11:36
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- [00:00]
Adam
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- [01:03]
Dave
Pro Savings Day's door buster deals are on at Lowes. Mylowes Pro Rewards members save an additional $120 on a GE 21.9 cubic foot top freezer refrigerator. Plus members save $70 on a Bosch hammer drill. Now only $99. Not a pro Rewards member join for free today. Lowes we help you save valid through 723 while supplies last selection varies by subject to terms and conditions. Ceeloz.com terms for details subject to change. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
- [01:35]
Jamie
What a play.
- [01:36]
Heath
Can you believe this?
- [01:38]
Jamie
No, I can't.
- [01:39]
Dave
It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [01:41]
Heath
Off to the races.
- [01:43]
Dan
And he stays on his feet.
- [01:44]
Heath
This is gonna go the distance.
- [01:46]
Dave
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
- [01:52]
Heath
Well, can Zay Flowers take the next step this season? Does Ashton Genty's arrival in Las Vegas really less production for Brock Bowers? Why are all the Ohio State wide receivers so bad and are they going to break out this year? It's a little bit of an exaggeration, I suppose. Welcome to fantasy football. Today is Monday, July 21st. It is FFT open day. Yeah, Dave and I are wearing the same shirt. About that. Yes, it's our FFT Open shirt. Dave, welcome back.
- [02:21]
Dan
Hopefully not the same size because that would be like a nighty for you and a tidy for me. Great to be back. I missed you both. I missed everybody. I haven't paid attention to a bit of football at all in the last week. So I'm gonna need some help filling in the blanks.
- [02:39]
Heath
I don't really believe true, but. All right.
- [02:44]
Dan
Okay. It's not true.
- [02:46]
Heath
Apparently we have a really good thumbnail today. I'd love to see it. Thomas Thomas's thumbnail game is a plus. All right, so today we're looking at some sleepers, breakouts and busts. Six of them in total. Three for Jamie, three for Dave. A combination. Not three sleepers, three breakouts, three bus. Just six players we're talking about. They fall into one of those three categories. And I am going to play devil's advocate. I'm going to say, no, you're wrong because. And maybe I believe them, maybe I don't. I guess we'll find out. But we'll have Dave and Jamie support their claims, back it up. And then we're going to do some news and notes. We got some players on the PUP list and whatnot. And we'll tell you about the FFT open and how to be part of the best or maybe the second best behind Scott Fishbowl fantasy Football tournament in the world. All right, let's start with the Ohio State guys. We're just going to do a couple here. We'll get. We'll jump back into this topic a little bit later. But Jamie has Garrett Wilson as a breakout. Dave has Marvin Harrison Jr. As a breakout. Garrett Wilson. I looked at CBS, ADP, fantasy pros, ADP football guys, ADP. Garrett Wilson is one of the most consistent here, if not the most. He is going as wide receiver 14 or 15 and 32nd to 33rd in all three average draft positions. Marvin Harrison Jr. Is going anywhere between 36th and 40th, and he is wide receiver 18 and 19. So I don't even think we can say, well, on this side, he's a breakout. On this, it's the same ADP for both of them. So, Jamie, you're. You're making the case for Garrett Wilson as a breakout. Why don't you go ahead and make your case and then I will give the devil's advocate.
- [04:20]
Jamie
It's every year, right? He's a breakout. Hopefully this is the year that it finally happens. Obviously, he's going to lead this team in targets and probably by a significant margin last year, 154 targets, which was number four in the NFL. And he probably would have been better than that if there was no Devonte Adams joining the team in the middle of the season because we saw how the targets sort of shifted in Adam's direction. But I like the fact that he has a history with Justin Fields. The two were together at Ohio State and I think that will matter. But mostly it's about the opportunity here. And you know, we keep understandably so, but it's not just this situation, but we keep, you know, sort of assigning the Ben Johnson offense to what's going to happen in Chicago. Well, this is a version of the Lions offense that's going to the jets. And I know it's not the same passing game. It's not going to be the same level of production for. For Fields based on his history by any stretch. But when you look at the opportunity that Wilson has to play the Amanra St. Brown role, the Jameson Williams role, the Sam Laporta role and everything else under the sun for this team, he's going to have the opportunity here to just get a lot of volume, which I think is going to matter. So we saw Fields get solid, if not above average, great production, whatever you want to label it with DJ Moore, when those two were together in Chicago. I think the same thing will happen for Garrett Wilson, maybe to an even better level. So I'm excited about the opportunity for him and someone that you should look forward toward. The back end of round three.
- [05:41]
Heath
Okay. Devil's advocate on Garrett Wilson. I wish he were going a little bit closer to the back end of round three. I know you 32nd to 33rd might be a little bit rich for you, but it's not. Not much. He always gets targets 147 targets. As a rookie use wide receiver 31 per game, 168 targets. In his second season, it's wide receiver 33 per game. In full PPR 46 the non 153 targets. Last year he was wide receiver 19 per game. But that's still lower than what he's being drafted as. Wide receiver 14 or 15. And I'm supposed to believe that Justin Fields is the cure? You're gonna say he's had terrible quarterback play his whole career? Well, he's been on two teams that have actually thrown for 4,000 yards. He's been on two teams that have been top half of the league in gross passing yards per game. Touchdowns, on the other hand, not so good. He's been on teams that are 31st, 32nd, but last year 6th jets through the 6th most touchdowns. Last year they threw the ball a ton of. I'm supposed to believe that Justin Fields is the guy that's going to get Garrett Wilson, that's going to make him better. Garrett Wilson, by the way, does not do well on deep balls in his career. He has one of the lowest catch rates in the NFL in the last three years since he's been in the league. Let's say among like 20th percentile in in catch rate on passes of 20 or more air yards. That needs to change. So I don't think anything's really changing for him. He has a quarterback that hasn't been good, that's going to throw a lot less than what we've seen from the jets in previous seasons where they've averaged 35 or more pass attempts each game. Yeah, he's going to get a ton of targets, but nothing is new. Nothing is new. The only way Garrett Wilson outperforms his ADP is if he has a Terry McLaurin like season where he scores a ton of touchdowns and then we'll be calling him a bust the next year because his touchdown rate is going to have to come down. So I don't see it drafting him as wide receiver. 15 feels like drafting him at his ceiling. That is my devil's advocate prediction or case for Garrett Wilson. Dave, why don't you jump in? What do you think? Who is more compelling there?
- [07:47]
Dan
I think you're both sort of right, but I lean a little bit toward you, Adam. I think he just kind of is what he is. If there is a difference though, it's what he did before Devonte Adams came to town last year. Averaged over 11 targets per game in his first 6 games. Had over 16 PPR points per game in his first 6 games. Can he do that with Justin Fields? No, I don't think so. I don't think he can. I don't think he'll see 11 targets per game. I don't think he'll get north of 15 PPR points per game. I think this is going to be a conservative offense. I do think he's going to lead them in targets. Wouldn't surprise me if he was around nine targets per game. You take the whole 20, 24 season, that's what he averaged. He was about nine targets per game. Little more than I think it was close to 15 PPR points per game. You want to draft them to be around 14 and a half, 15 PPR points per game. I'm good with that. And I have a tough time finding a lot of wide receivers that fit into that bucket. When I look in that range of PPR points per game, I have a tough time finding a lot of receivers that I feel good about getting there I think it's that volume. This is where I agree with Jamie. I think it's that volume that's going to carry Garrett Wilson to getting there.
- [08:57]
Heath
Real quick, before we go back to Jamie, if you think he's going to average 14 and a half PPR fantasy points per game, put that into context. What round do you think 14 and a half PPR fantasy points per game should be drafted in?
- [09:07]
Dan
Right, so this is where I think where he's being drafted is about. Right. We're talking about. I don't think you're necessarily going to agree with it, but late round three into round four, maybe a shade later, maybe call them top 50, but probably closer to that three, four turn is where somebody who's got the con, the idea of being 14 and a half, but could be higher, is going to get drafted.
- [09:33]
Heath
All right, Jamie, what'd you think of my case against Garrett Wilson and why is this going to be the year that he actually turns all those targets into better fantasy production?
- [09:41]
Jamie
Well, I, I don't, I don't think you're wrong. I mean, there's a reason why he's not. I think if you were to, say, a player of his pedigree and opportunity, forget about everything else, that would probably push him in around two, you know, just looking at what the, the opportunity is there for him. So there's, I think, at least for me, like, I, I'm not taking him where his ADP is. So I, I will not get Garrett Wilson in the early 30s. I just think the way, at least the drafts I've seen and the way I build my teams, like, I'm not looking for him using that spot. I don't have him ranking that spot. So it's a matter of first off, if he's, if he's scoring 14 and a half points, that's, that's a round four pick at best, if not round five. So I, I don't, I don't think you want to be drafting that player. If that's your ceiling, then you're probably mistaking him for where he should be going. Where he's going right now, I think the, the hope is, again, better, better offense in general, you know, so while the quarterback play may be a little bit tough to buy into, the hope would be, is they're easier throws for him. He uses his athleticism. He does make some more plays down the field. Again, you know, I hate to keep using this word, hope, but this is what we're banking on for Garrett Wilson after all these years in the NFL at this point, you know, and, and I think the jets just sort of back that up by giving the contract that they gave him, you know, so there's a lot of faith here. And I'll ask you the same thing. When we were talking about Mason Taylor last week that you brought up, who's the. Who's the second best receiver right now for the Jets?
- [11:02]
Heath
Breeze Hall.
- [11:05]
Jamie
That'd be great.
- [11:05]
Heath
But that's happened before. That's the point. Like two years ago, Breece hall was second on the team in targets.
- [11:10]
Jamie
I don't see that happening.
- [11:11]
Heath
Three years ago, Tyler Conklin was second on the team of targets. I might be flipping those, but I.
- [11:15]
Jamie
I think it's going to be. The name that you keep bringing up every time there's a news item about the jets is Josh Reynolds. Yeah, and that's what, that's, that's the selling point for Garrett.
- [11:22]
Heath
But, but I'm saying is that's already been the case for him, but it.
- [11:25]
Jamie
Wasn'T the case last year when it was year three for him. And now we're into year four, where I think there's a, there's a, you know, hopefully change come. I mean.
- [11:32]
Heath
All right.
- [11:33]
Jamie
You know, you mentioned he's dealt with bad quarterback play before. Yes, he's dealt with bad quarterback play before. I hope that some of the things that Justin Fields has learned over the last couple seasons will help him with their history together, lend itself to Garrett Wilson being a big contributor and north of the 14 and a half points that he scored last year.
- [11:51]
Heath
Yeah, he said he is going to throw less because like I said, they've thrown 35 or more pass attempts per game, which is a lot. They've ranked 6th, 11th and 5th in pass attempts per game in Garrett Wilson's career. Justin Fields in his. I just. The games where he's played a 90% snapshare or higher, he's averaged 27.1, 2130 and 27 past 10 games. So let's put them in the 27, 28 range and pass attempts per game. So that's, that's going to be the challenge there for Garrett Wilson. I will say that you look at just those numbers on the deep balls, it's really discouraging because when I think of Garrett Wilson, that. That's what I. That's what I think is missing for him. He just has not been a vertical threat. He's kind of like a. It feels like he's a slot receiver playing on the outside to me, like he's A Chris Godwin. I'm on Ross St. Brown in the best case scenario because he's not making big plays. However, I went back and I watched all of his targets on 20 or 20 air yards or more last year from Aaron Rodgers. Aaron Rodgers sucks. Like he last year. Like Garrett Wilson. I mean, I saw three or four plays where he just burned somebody and he could have had a few hundred more, 200 more yards and three more touchdowns. Maybe, maybe it's a little high on the yard. He could have had much better stats. Now those past attempts are hard, right? Like people miss. But I don't know that it was all on Garrett Wilson. I think he's capable of more. I'm torn on him. That's why I brought him up. I see the arguments both ways and we'll see how the audience, the audience apparently, or the fantasy community apparently buys into it. Cause I think 32nd is pretty rich for Garrett Wilson.
- [13:21]
Dan
It's the volume. That's why it's because they see a guy who's clearly going to be the number one receiver on his team, clearly is going to have a bunch of catches and in full ppr. That's, you know, that's the recipe. You want that on your team.
- [13:36]
Jamie
I think the, the thing in your roster construction is do you want this to be your number one receiver? So if you went running back and one of the tight ends, obviously the quarterback's going to come into play here. With most drafts, especially where we see Lamar Jackson's 80 AP at this point, do you want this to be your number one receiver? And to me, this is sort of where like not, not the tear break because we obviously went through a lot of tears. He was in tier four or five for me. I don't remember exactly. Do you feel comfortable with Garrett Wilson as your number one receiver? And for me, the answer is no.
- [14:06]
Heath
Yeah. So just real quick, I mean, just thinking about, man, those Rogers plays, but is there really that big of a difference between Garrett Wilson and DK Metcalf this year? They both should completely dominate their. Their receiving cores and targets they both are going to be on. I would say the Steelers are going to throw more than the Jets.
- [14:28]
Jamie
Maybe I put in the same ballpark, but I give.
- [14:30]
Dan
Right, right. It's going to be close.
- [14:32]
Heath
All right. All right, let's, let's.
- [14:34]
Jamie
I don't have them ranked that far apart. I'm with you.
- [14:36]
Heath
All right, let's take a quick talent.
- [14:38]
Dan
Wise, I think Wilson runs way more routes and is way more, you know.
- [14:45]
Heath
Agile than DK all right, quick break here. Before we go to break, let's take a look at the thumbnail of the day. Look at if you're not watching YouTube.
- [14:54]
Dan
Oh my God.
- [14:55]
Heath
Devil's Advocate. How do you even know that movie, Thomas? Like, how did this come about? This is fantastic.
- [15:03]
Adam
I love this movie. I'm. I'm a big movie guy. 80s 90s. I know them all the good ones. I'm not like Dan.
- [15:10]
Heath
I've never seen Devil's Advocate. Is it good?
- [15:11]
Jamie
Oh, come on.
- [15:12]
Adam
Oh my God. It's one of Keanu Reeves best movies.
- [15:17]
Heath
That's good. Yeah, well, he's, you know, Parenthood is Keanu Reeves best.
- [15:20]
Dan
You see this and you think that Jamie's the movie star in the family.
- [15:23]
Heath
I know, right? Looking good.
- [15:25]
Jamie
My hair is long enough now. I could probably do that.
- [15:27]
Heath
We'll be back on the Devil's Advocate edition.
- [15:32]
Scuba Steve
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- [16:01]
Heath
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- [16:10]
Jamie
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- [16:19]
Heath
So give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront.
- [16:24]
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Payment of 45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of network's busy. Taxes and fees extra. See mint mobile.com.
- [16:31]
Jamie
Oh, Adam. Finally. Appreciate that comment from Brian.
- [16:34]
Heath
What comment? Adam looks like Silvio from Sopranos. Okay. Yeah, I think. Who's Silvio?
- [16:41]
Jamie
I'll go.
- [16:43]
Dan
Stop. Stop.
- [16:45]
Heath
All right. Hey, real quick. I started watching a movie that I was surprised at how good it was. It's a Paramount movie, so I feel like I can plug it. Terminator, Dark Fate. It's. I watched the first 20 minutes or so. It was really good. I got like 70% on rotten tomatoes. Looking forward to finishing it.
- [17:01]
Jamie
Okay, which one's that one?
- [17:03]
Heath
It's from five years ago. I think Arnold is.
- [17:07]
Jamie
When Arnold comes back, right?
- [17:08]
Heath
Yeah. Yeah. But I haven't gotten to Arnold yet. Have you seen it? Yeah, it's good. Is it good?
- [17:13]
Jamie
Yeah, it's pretty solid.
- [17:14]
Heath
Yeah, it seemed pretty good. Okay. Marvin Harrison Jr.
- [17:17]
Jamie
Weekend. That was crazy. You saw what Eddington.
- [17:20]
Heath
Never heard of it. I'm not doing so well today, Dave. Marvin Harrison Jr. Has a breakout. I thought you didn't like Marvin Harrison Jr.
- [17:30]
Dan
I don't love him. But when I. When I define a breakout, it's a player that I think can be better than what he was last year. And he sucked last year. Didn't even average 12 PPR fantasy points. So I think he can outperform that, but I don't. It's. I'm not reaching for him. I'm not going to take him over. Garrett Wilson, for example.
- [17:47]
Heath
He's going between 36 and 40th.
- [17:51]
Jamie
That's the most compelling case I've heard from Brian Harrison yet. This office.
- [17:54]
Heath
Yeah, he's. He should be better than he was last year. He was wide receiver, absolutely 41 per game. But he's being drafted as wide receiver, 18 or 19. He's a top 40 pick and I'm.
- [18:04]
Dan
Fine with pretty much all that. I'd like to get him a little bit later than 40th overall, but I don't think. I'm thinking 50th overall. On Marvin Harrison Jr. The fact that they're bulking him up, they want to make him a better player in contested catches, want to make him a more physical part of their offense. I get it. He just needs to get on the same page with Kyler Murray now. I don't like hearing that Kyler Murray is telling people that he wants to run more. That's not going to be good for anybody in that offense other than Kyler Murray. But I think Marvin Harrison still has good talent as long as they use them the right way. Shorten that a dot not treat him like he's some sort of a speedster. He's not. He's. He's much more of a sophisticated route runner who's trying to add a physical edge. He was terrible in contested catches last year. He can get better there. He scored a bunch of touchdowns last year. He can get better there. I'm hoping that he can take a nice step forward and get, you know, maybe to where we were talking with Garrett Wilson a few minutes ago. That 14 and a half PPR point range. I. I think he can get there and I think he does have it in him assuming that target volume goes higher than what we think that he could be, you know, somewhere in the neighborhood of a top 12ish fantasy wide receiver. But that's the ceiling call. I think he's going to be much more of a like, decent wide receiver too. I feel like he's getting drafted that way.
- [19:18]
Heath
Okay, so that's Marvin Harrison. My, my devil's advocate for Marvin Harrison. I'm going to use one of my favorite Simpsons quotes. Marvin Harrison. He's get this, a little slow. This is Homer being so stupid not realizing that he is slow. But no, I mean. So I also looked at the most of the targets of his 20 plus air yard pass attempts. And you already said it, Dave. He's not a speedster. But I mean, this guy is not separating. Unlike Garrett Wilson, who can burn guys. Marvin Harrison Jr. He's gonna have to make contestant catches. And I just don't like that he added weight. I want him to be a little bit more agile. Now he's adding weight. I don't know that there's enough pass volume. Kyler Murray last year averaged the fewest pass attempts per game of his career. When you just look at his healthy games, he says he wants to run more. Obviously, Trey McBride is there. The one thing Marvin Harrison had last year was end zone targets. He had some among the most end zone targets in the NFL. If that goes away, we're not talking about a guy who's getting a lot of yak. We're not talking a lot about a guy who's doing well on his deep balls. He caught 35% of his deep ball targets, which is okay, but it's not, not great. So he needs those end zone targets to get those touchdowns. And I don't know, quite frankly, I'm just not blown away by what we saw. You know, I'm disappointed in what we saw on the field based on the fact that he was the most hyped wide receiver coming out in a long time. I don't look at it like he doesn't look like Julio Jones. He doesn't look like A.J. green. He doesn't look like Malik Neighbors. He's just not that good of an athlete, in my opinion. I know that sounds kind of crazy. And he gained weight, so I'm not sure he's gonna break out. I don't know that he's gonna match his pedigree. That's my devil's advocate argument.
- [21:07]
Jamie
Well, I, I think first off, the reason I think he gained weight was not for contested catches. He was Actually tied for second in the NFL among wide receivers last year for contested catches with nine.
- [21:14]
Dan
And what. Wait a minute. In what stat?
- [21:17]
Jamie
Contested catches?
- [21:18]
Dan
Like. Like opportunities or actual catches?
- [21:21]
Jamie
I was looking at the list from FTN Fantasy for what that's worth, and they have Drake London, one with 13, and then they have four other guys tied with nine. Marvin Harrison.
- [21:31]
Heath
Can you read those names? Because I. I always felt like that wasn't such a great stat because it meant you were not separating a lot. Like Keon Coleman in college, for example, a lot of contestants.
- [21:42]
Jamie
Here's the list that they have. CD Lamb is on the list, which obviously he separates. Garrett Wilson's on the list, and Terry McLaren's on the list. So it's Drake London again. This is FTN Fantasy 20, 24 contested catch leaders. Drake London, one with 13. Three guys tied with nine. CD Lamb, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. And then Terry McLaurin right behind them with eight.
- [22:00]
Dan
All right, so I've got Marvin Harrison with 16 contested catches on 38 attempts. 38 attempts is close to the top of opportunities on contested catches, but he only caught 16 of them. That's 42%. I've got McLaurin. This is from Pro Football Focus. 25 catches for McLaurin. That was first. Marvin Harrison is tied for 11th with 16. And he wouldn't have even had 16 if he didn't have so many opportunities that he didn't do well on. So I don't know. I guess we probably the best way to go about it would be to have Adam go back and watch every single target that Marvin Harrison had and have him figure out how many opportunities there were.
- [22:37]
Heath
It's subjective. That's kind of one of the problems with that stat. But, Jamie, I'm sorry we cut you off. What'd you want to say there?
- [22:41]
Jamie
No, no. I mean, first off, he had one broken tack tackle last year, so I think that was a big part of it, was that they want him to get a little bit more physical in that regard. So when he does get the ball in his hands, that he's not getting brought down or not being able to separate, which is part of it, too. I mean, look, you're not, you know, getting tackled if you're running away from people. So. And. And to go back to your point, Adam, in terms of his. His metrics, in some cases, maybe this is why he didn't want to run at the combine, because he didn't want people to see that maybe he wasn't so fast.
- [23:10]
Heath
That's exactly what I Thought I honestly, I, I may have said that a while ago. I really feel like he would not have been the first wide receiver taken if he had run at the combine.
- [23:19]
Jamie
Possibly, you know, and that was one critique from our colleague Pete Prisco. Why he liked Malik Neighbors better was he didn't think that Harrison ran as well as Neighbors did. And so it's true. There's clearly, again, a belief in where you think Marvin Harrison's stats will go. And you reference something in regard to Garrett Wilson. It wouldn't shock me if Harrison has a Terry McLaurin like season because as I've said the last couple of weeks, you know, and my favorite co analyst because he agrees with everything I say. Dan, he's coming off a rookie season with eight touchdowns, so it's not like there's a long way to go for him to get to that number that we're looking at 10, 12, you know, it's possible for him to be there. And I do think the, the Kyler running thing isn't that huge of a negative because we have seen Kyler in the past when he's run again, different caliber of wide receiver, more proven guys, but he still got good numbers with DeAndre Hopkins. He's still got numbers for Marquis Brown. You know, it's not like these guys were terrible because Kyler was still running. Now you do have two guys to support here with Trey McBride, so that's a big part of this as well. But I also think that, look, the expectations have certainly been moved for Harrison Round two pick a year ago, in some cases round one, because we were all excited about the hype for what he was supposed to be as a prospect. And then it unfolds where he's one of the biggest busts of 2024 at any position. And so now you're buying back into, you know, to, you know, where Dave is coming from of just being better than what it was, what he was a year ago and putting up better stats. I, I hope that's the ground floor for him, you know, because again, if we can get to 10 touchdowns, 12 touchdowns, I don't think he's going to be a 15 touchdown guy in this offense. But 10 is not that much of a ask for where he was in his rookie campaign. Then can he get to a thousand yards receiving? Well, that's a few more big plays and obviously again, breaking some more tackles, maybe getting some of those end zone opportunities and you know, Kyler making things happen with his legs where there's broken plays now and, and we see some of that as well. So I think he's a great round four buy. If he goes round five or later, I feel it's like a steal. And again, I don't want him to be my number one receiver no matter how you start, you know, two running backs, tight end, quarterback, whatever the case may be, because I don't think he's going around three. But he's in that group. You know, he's basically like the start of the blob, you know, 20 to 40. Or you can make a case for almost all these guys to be number two caliber wide receivers. You just got to take again the, the realistic approach of he may not ever be that type of prospect, The Julio Jones, A.J. green type of guys, but he could still be a really good wide receiver. Maybe he has sort of like that Drake London maturation process whereby year three we're looking at, you know, a top tier fantasy wide receiver, a tier 2.
- [26:04]
Dan
Guy, and obviously it could go sideways if he doesn't get an increase in target volume or he added this muscle and he's still not, you know, winning on contested catches and he's still averaging. I think it's 2.4 yards after catch per reception, which is gross. So there are definitely ways that this could get worse. The biggest issue for me is that the Cardinals try and use them the exact same way they did last year. Like they didn't learn from anything that happened. They didn't self scout themselves. I don't see that happening. I think the Cardinals know that they've got a chance to make some moves this year. They've got to try and get this first round pick going. They should be doing everything in their power to put them in a position to be an effective pass catcher. And ergo getting a lot of targets, having a lot of numbers to go with it. He should be a better receiver in year two.
- [26:50]
Jamie
Adam, what's, what's his dad's name? What's the coach's name?
- [26:53]
Heath
Oh, stop. So Marvin Harrison Jr. Yeah, not enough in terms of targets, like easy layups, basically the lowest. I'm not going to go through all the numbers, but there was no fantasy relevant wide receiver that had fewer targets of zero to five air yards than Marvin Harrison Jr. Except A.J. brown, who missed three or four games. It was on the most run heavy team in the NFL. So give him some layups. All right, listen, today is a big day. Tonight is a big night. 7:00pm Eastern, we begin our fundraiser to raise over $60,000 for St. Jude. All through the FFT open. What is the FFT open? Started out with eight leagues, then 12 leagues. This year, 24 leagues. They're all 12 team leagues. You compete within your league for the first 13 weeks of the season, then weeks 14 and 15 are the playoffs in your leagues. If you win your division, you move on to the FFT Open semifinals and hopefully the finals. It's going to be 24 division winners competing in week 16, the top eight highest scores and obviously they're going to be players that are on, you know, multiple teams, right? So you're just competing with these other league winners. The eight highest scores advanced to week 17 and the highest score of week 17 wins the FFT Open. So I've got a division, Jamie's got a division, Dave's got a division. We've got 24 of these divisions. A lot of CBS guys, some non CBS guys like Chris Harris, Scott Fish, the Fantasy Life, guys like Ian Harditz who we had on last week. If you're a Jets fan. L. D'Sables got a league. There's Dan Schneier looking like he's 10 years old in that picture. Alfredo Brown. Anyway, 7:00pm tonight, all of these spots become available. $250 each. I know it's a lot, but it all goes to St. Jude. We're going to sell it out and it's going to be $66,000 for St. Jude. So we'll see you at this URL tinyurl.com 2025fft tinyurl.com 2025fft 7pm Eastern tonight I'm guessing that my league, Dave's, Jamie's and Heaths will fill up within a minute or two. So if you want to be in one of those four, get there on time. A few others might fill up that fast. I think a lot of them will be available for the next few days. It's my guess We've never done 24 leagues, so it's ambitious. But be there tonight. Tinyurl.com/2025FFT all right, let's run through some news and notes real quick here. Rasheed Rice will be a full participant in training camp and left tackle Josh Simmons, their first round pick. Maybe left tackle, maybe right tackle. We'll see. They got some competition there for the Chiefs, but he appears healthy. It's great news for them, but Rasheed Rice. All right, suspension aside, guys. We'll wait and see what the suspension is. Are you treating Rashid Rice as a healthy player right now? Like fully healthy, normal?
- [29:53]
Dan
If there was no suspension. I would expect him to be on his normal snapshare week one.
- [29:59]
Heath
Okay. I will always just say it and we'll talk to. We'll talk to a, you know, a sports doctor before, before too long. It's on my list of priorities. Is he going to be the same as he was? That we just don't know. Detroit left tackle Taylor Deckers on the PUP list. He could be back soon, though. And I mentioned how much better their run defense was when Levi Onruzarique was in the lineup last year. We knew he was going to be on pup. Well, he's actually going to miss the entire season for the Lions with a torn acl. Chris Godwin not practicing with the team as of now. He's a candidate to start camp on pup. All right. This is a big one, Jamie. Seattle released Noah fan. He had 64 targets in 14 games last year. That's. That ain't nothing.
- [30:41]
Dan
Yeah, that's nothing.
- [30:43]
Heath
No, that's not, That's.
- [30:44]
Jamie
I don't really worry about last year, though. I mean, the whole thing is different. New quarterback, new coordinator. Like, so many moving parts. Like, for me, it's not.
- [30:50]
Heath
All right, well, yeah, I, I would like to. You know that gif of me dancing. Yeah, that could be. All the people who drafted Elijah Arroyo last week on their Scott Fishbowl team. Including me, by the way.
- [31:03]
Jamie
Yeah, no, it's. It, it's. And I think you, you're very high on him in Dynasty, right? I know you drafted him in our big burger league. Yeah, it's a huge opportunity. Look, you're talking about, you know, guy who scored seven touchdowns, 35 of 45 targets last year at Miami and 590 yards receiving, you know, guy that can move in an offense again, a lot of moving parts, you know, so He's a top 20 tight end for me. I think I'm tight in 17. He moved ahead of Mason Taylor, who was my third favorite rookie tight end. Now Arroyo's in that spot, Taylor's fourth, and so wouldn't surprise me if he's, you know, in the same range of production as, as Loveland and Warren. You know, just. Again, given his, his opportunity here with Sam Darnold, I would certainly take the other two rookies well ahead of him. But just how this all sort of plays out. Look, Cooper Cup's got to stay healthy. He's 32 years old, really behind Jackson, the Jigba and Cup. It's, it's, it's thin, you know, Marcos Valdez scantling, who comes with Kubiak is going to be a part of this, but there's a big chance here, you know, so the, the one question I, I think we have to see is it may not be early in the season where Arroyo shines because I think AJ Barn will get the first opportunity. You know, just being a guy that's on the team and you know, certainly based on everything that I read, I wrote a story on Arroyo, you can read it on site. And just so people are, are aware, I'm going to be doing a lot more like news reaction. So like there's a story on the 49ers from the Publist. So basically anytime something happens, I'm gonna be reacting to it pretty quickly. So Barner is. They're probably gonna lean on him for his blocking, you know, and especially you'll see him a lot in, in 12 personnel. But I do think there's a huge opportunity here for this kid. And you know, anytime you see these second round tight ends, you know, this was laporta his rookie season. You know, it's why I was excited, for example, about Ben Senate with his chance in Washington there. There's just a clear path here for him to, you know, get, get opportunities. Now, to your point about Fant three years, he scored two touch, three touchdowns in two years. You know, I'm sorry, he scored one touchdown in his last two years. In 2022, he's better find the end zone. But one touchdown in his last two years, he never top 50 catches, never top 500 yards. So for what that's worth, if you're just looking at the history here, and even last year with McDonald. But I do think again, you know, totally changed everything. New quarterback, new system, new receivers around him. You know, Metcalf's not there, Lockett's not there. So there's a, there's just an easy path here for one of these. Take a chance on a late round pick with one of these rookie tight ends. And he's one of those guys.
- [33:24]
Heath
All right, here's another rookie tight end. Just keep him on your radar. Arande Gadston's getting a lot of good press. Daniel Popper of the Athletic thinks he can make an impact in the passing game if he can get on the field enough. And he's going to have to block, you know, well enough, I guess, for that. Tennessee quarterback Will Levis is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Dave, do you think Cam Ward is going to start for them now?
- [33:44]
Dan
Sure. Sounds like it's going to be Cam Ward. Big shockaroo there.
- [33:49]
Heath
Cincinnati signed quarterback Desmond Ritter. Ricky Pierce all and Brandon Iuk are both on the PUP list. So Jamie has already talked about. He wrote something on that. But look, they can obviously come off. We're expecting Pearsall to come off hopefully pretty soon. Iuk, not necessarily. Might start the season on the PUP list and miss four games. Raiders defensive tackle Christian Wilkins is on the PUP list as he recovers from foot surgery. It's a big off season addition for them last year. Wilkins barely played last year. Hoping he can come back. Come off the PUP list pretty soon. Glenn Smith of the Locked on Cowboys podcast. I can't say I'm too familiar with with this show, but he did say that coaches have expressed that rookie running back Jaden Blue is borderline lazy. So we're going to keep an eye.
- [34:35]
Jamie
On that and a lot of people in Dallas refuting that.
- [34:37]
Heath
Is that right, man? Well, you would expect them to refute it. I think Glenn Smith was a.
- [34:42]
Jamie
No. I mean, like even other media members just saying.
- [34:44]
Heath
Okay, okay. I hope. I hope so. Christian Watson is on the PUP list. We'll keep an eye on him. All right, let's get one more Devil's Advocate in here before we take.
- [34:55]
Jamie
I don't.
- [34:55]
Heath
I just.
- [34:56]
Jamie
Just to go back to the Godwin thing. I don't think he can go on the PUP list now.
- [34:59]
Heath
Did they start camp officially?
- [35:01]
Jamie
The. The thing I saw from Rick Stroud, who covers the team, he's one of the best beat writers, you know, that covers a team. He said that he's working off the side with the trainer. So I think if that's the case and they haven't put him on public, if they've started practice. Right. I don't know for sure. So if they're actually practicing, I don't think he'd go on the pub list.
- [35:17]
Heath
I think you're right about that. Yeah.
- [35:19]
Dan
Right.
- [35:19]
Heath
Then he's out for the season or something like that. But. Right.
- [35:23]
Dan
No, don't say that.
- [35:24]
Heath
No, that. That won't happen. All right, let's do a Devil's Advocate here. Let's talk about Zay Flower. You know, I'm going to switch the order here. Let's. Let's go Brock Bowers because I think you both had him on the bus list. Right? Is that. Am I right?
- [35:38]
Jamie
He's on more about ADP than anything else, right?
- [35:40]
Heath
Absolutely. Absolutely. So. But I think you guys both like Brock Bowers kind of at the 2, 3 turn and he's going 16th overall. Is that. Am I Accurate there in saying that.
- [35:51]
Jamie
Correct.
- [35:51]
Heath
Okay.
- [35:52]
Dan
I believe I like him after the 2, 3 turn, which means I'm just not getting them.
- [35:56]
Heath
But what are you like 26th or something on him?
- [35:58]
Dan
Yeah, yeah, it's close enough. Okay, 27.
- [36:02]
Heath
Okay. All right, well, go ahead you guys, tell me why. Dave, one minute for you, one minute for Jamie. Go ahead.
- [36:09]
Dan
They added Ashton Genty in the draft. This is a team that was top five in past attempts last year. So there were huge opportunities for Bowers to get a ton of targets and he, he did very well with them. It was over eight targets per game. I see that number coming down. I think Genti is going to take a lot of touchdown opportunities away from everybody. Not to mention he's going to catch the ball. Genty will out of the backfield and this is going to be a run centric offense. It isn't about one of their rookie wide receivers. It's not about Jacoby Myers. They do get an upgrade at quarterback in Geno. There's no doubt that that's going to help. And it's not like Brock Bowers is going to totally suck. But I think if you're drafting them in the same range where you could get a top tier player at running back or wide receiver, I think you're making a mistake. For a guy who averaged. It was like just over 15 PPR points per game last year. I get it. You want to have an advantage at tight end. Just because you want to have that advantage at tight end doesn't mean you should mess up your draft and take somebody sooner than you should to get it.
- [37:09]
Heath
Jamie, you're cases for Bowers as a bus. If he's going 16th overall, it's basically the same thing.
- [37:14]
Jamie
I mean, you know, you're just looking at a player that is elite and I hope he will continue to be elite. But I just see the targets coming down and I think we're going to see probably something of a similar touchdown production from a touchdown perspective in, in the same range, you know. So first off, if you're taking a tight end early, I prefer McBride. He's my number one tight end. So I would rather take him ahead of Bowers in PPR and half ppr. But it's really just about the cost. I think you're, you know, and I'll go back to something to just continue to say what you said and I know I sort of phrased it the wrong way, so correct me if I'm going to say it wrong again, but it was when we were talking About Kittle and where Kittle's production was last year to be the number one tight end from a points per game perspective. And you said if you're expecting those two guys to be that much better than Kittle, then they need to take a bigger leap than that. And I just don't think that they're going to.
- [38:02]
Heath
They need to be. I think what I said or what I wanted to say was that maybe like Kelsey, all three of them finish. Well, I don't know about that, but all three of them finished. All three of them scored about 15 and a half years.
- [38:13]
Jamie
I have 16 points for game.
- [38:14]
Dan
Right. None of them were 16.
- [38:15]
Heath
Again, they all. If you're drafting Bowers and McBride in the second round, they need to do better than they did last year.
- [38:23]
Jamie
Correct. And I don't think they're going to be significantly better.
- [38:26]
Heath
Okay. Yeah. I don't know that they need to be Kelsey because Kelsey probably played like a top five overall player. But they need to be, you know, Waller at his peak, Kittle at his peak. Well, maybe. I mean, Kittle had like a 1300 yard season, but. All right, here's my devil's advocate. I know they're going to throw less. I know they're going to run more. It's not apples to apples, unfortunately. I wish it were a little bit better of a comparison, but I looked at the Cowboys the year before they drafted Zeke and the Giants the year before they drafted Barkley and you know what happened both years they ran the ball more and threw the ball less after they drafted those running backs in the top five or whatever it was. But you know what else happened? They threw for more yards, they threw for more touchdowns. I know that the targets might come down, but they're going to be a better offense because of Ashton Genti.
- [39:18]
Jamie
Totally agree.
- [39:18]
Heath
So I think that will help make up for it. Again, it's not apples to apples. It's like the Giants, Odell Beckham played four games the year before they drafted Barkley and then he was healthy the year they drafted Barkley or he played like 12 games the year that the, that the Cowboys drafted Zeke. They also, I think they drafted Prescott that that year or that was at least the first year that he played. They both played, you know, their first year, Zeke and Dak the year before that was like Matt Castle was their leading passer. So again, it's not apples to apples, but Genti's just going to make them better. I hate the fact that that Bowers and Kyle Pitts average basically the Same yards per out run as rookies and we've seen what happened to Kyle Pitts's career. But Powers just feels different. I mean, he's so damn good and he is going to dominate targets for them even if it's more like 140.
- [40:05]
Jamie
This isn't for me about not drafting Bowers. Like, you know, sometimes you call a player a bus and you say don't draft him. There are two players that I'm going to continue to say are bus candidates based on where their average draft position is, is Brock Bowers and Lamar Jackson. Jackson in our ADP, at least last time I looked, is going almost 10 spots ahead of Josh Allen. Like, I don't understand that. If you, if you like those guys in somewhat of a similar range, which most people do like, why would you not be drafting them close to each other? I think Jackson's better, but I would still rather have Josh Allen 10 picks later if that's the case of what I'm getting. And then you factor in the sliding scale and the same thing goes for Bowers, like taking him in round two just feels a little bit too close to what you're asking him to produce at. Whereas again I, I like another tight end better and I think Kittle's going to be right there with those guys also. And you're getting him late round three, in some cases around four. So I think you're just asking. You're just paying too much of a premium for those two players in particular. So it's really just about the adp, more so than the, the player, the situation, all those things. I do think the Raiders offense is going to be better. Clearly you, you bring in everything it should be better. Backfield by far, better quarterback play better and then everything from a sliding scale from that perspective. So hopefully Bowers doesn't lose too much, but he is going to lose a little bit. I mean, he's not going to get as many opportunities and so can he score more? Hopefully. Can he catch the ball at the same rate? Hopefully. I mean, look, when you have this level of production is why everybody was so pissed about Kyle Pitts. You thought, okay, thousand yard rookie season, most receiving yards ever for a tight end in his rookie campaign. You know, it seemed like a layup and it wasn't and hopefully the same thing. Hopefully that does not happen with Brock Bowers in year two.
- [41:32]
Dan
I believe an injury was also part of the reason why Pitts took a step back his second year. Here are some names that are being taken after Bowers in Our adp, you tell me if you would take these guys or Bowers, drake, London.
- [41:46]
Jamie
London.
- [41:47]
Dan
A.J. brown.
- [41:48]
Jamie
Brown.
- [41:49]
Dan
Derrick Henry.
- [41:50]
Jamie
Henry.
- [41:51]
Dan
Josh Jacobs, Jake Bowers, lad McConkey.
- [41:55]
Heath
Bowers.
- [41:57]
Dan
Jonathan Taylor.
- [41:58]
Jamie
Taylor Bowers.
- [42:00]
Dan
Kyron Williams.
- [42:01]
Heath
Bowers. But do you know why? Like do you know why? Bowers. But, but here's. Okay, here's the other part of this. Like you're also. So I would take A.J. brown and Derrick Henry. That's my cutoff. I think it's 18 guys and then for me I start considering the tight ends and I do think my strategy changes a lot. In a two receiver league versus a three receiver league. In a two receiver league, I really want to stand out at tight end. In a three receiver league or a super flex league, it is less important for me. So. And the other thing is like if you're in the middle of round two, let's say he's 16 is too early for me. But let's say he gets to 20 and Bowers or McBride are there. I feel very confident that you are going to love your third round pick. Your third round pick could be Higgins or Tyreek Hill or Kyron Williams or maybe Jonathan Taylor or Bucky Irving or Chase Brown. It's a deep part of the draft. In the middle of round three. It gives you a little bit of freedom to take Brock Bowers there if you really want that edge at tight end.
- [42:59]
Jamie
I don't disagree with any of that. Especially because you're looking at, you control your, your, your fate at that point. Because you see the pool of players available to you. When you're taking him at 16, you're at the mercy of what's going to fall to you. And so to you. I don't disagree with what you said about, you know, prioritizing tight end in the, in that format. But when you start to get to where he would be if you take him at 16 and then you see what's available to you in round three and knowing that you could get Kittle there or Kittle is a little later.
- [43:28]
Heath
Kittle is the best argument I think for Bowers's bus case. Like to me, because you, because you can't really say McBride, right? Because you're not gonna, you're not really not gonna be in a position where you pass on bowers in round two and then you can get McBride in round three, right.
- [43:40]
Dan
They're gonna go within.
- [43:41]
Jamie
No. In your scenario you can. If it'.
- [43:44]
Heath
Yeah, then he'd have to make it to like 28 or something like that. But if if they're both available and you have and you're at, you know, you're at 23rd or 22nd overall, you have a chance. But in most cases, you're not going to be able to pass on Bowers to get McBride. You are going to be able to pass on Bowers to get Kittle, though. That's the, that's the best case I think that you guys have made as the Bowers being drafted too early.
- [44:06]
Dan
Sure. Which is of course there's also the idea that you're going to be able to get a really great player in round two and get one of those great players that you're talking about because you're right, you're going to love your round three pick no matter what you do in round two. So I, I don't mind going after running backs and receivers with my first three picks.
- [44:23]
Heath
No, of course.
- [44:24]
Jamie
Yeah. I mentioned this last week. I think we were talking about Kittle, that I would do the research on his numbers without Ayuk and without Debo.
- [44:31]
Heath
Sure.
- [44:33]
Jamie
Without Debo. He's played 13 games in his career since 2019. 16.1 PPR points per game without Debo on the field. He's played 12 games without Ayuk on the field. Obviously most of those were last year. He averaged 14.6 PPR points per game. Three of those games. He played three games where overlap where they both were out. None of them were with Brock Purdy. So I kind of just threw those out. I didn't do any with McCaffrey on off the field. So just strictly what he did without Debo and without Ayuk, I.
- [45:02]
Dan
There has to be like a big target jump there too.
- [45:05]
Heath
You are azer stating this is my heart is a flutter right now. I just love, I love this segment. This is terrific.
- [45:12]
Jamie
And by the way, the Bucks open Tampa Bay opens camp veterans report tomorrow. So I guess there's a chance that yeah, God would go on the public.
- [45:21]
Heath
All right, we got to get, we got to get a break in here. We have three more Devil's Advocates for you. It's going to be a long show. It's going to be a beyond the box score level show.
- [45:31]
Jamie
Good.
- [45:31]
Heath
All right. We'll be right back on fantasy football today.
- [45:35]
Scuba Steve
This episode is brought to you by State Farm. Knowing you could be saving money for the things you really want like that dream house or ride is a great feeling. That's why the State Farm personal price plan can help you save when you choose to bundle home and auto bundling. Just another way to Save with a personal price plan. Prices are based on rating plans that vary by state. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability, amount of discounts, and savings and eligibility vary by state.
- [46:01]
Dave
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- [46:16]
Heath
So I mentioned earlier, Garrett Wilson and Marvin Harrison and even Brock bowers. These are three guys who. They're ADPs. Depending on where you look, it's really not that different. Marvin Harrison Jr. Was about 36 to 40th. He was wide receiver 18 or 19. Garrett Wilson was wide receiver 14 or 15. He's going about 31st ish overall. I looked at three different ADP sources. Brock Bowers going, you know, tight end one, he's about 16th overall. Zay Flowers is a little bit different. Zay Flowers, based on CBS, the best ADP. If you want to draft Flowers, he's 68th overall. He's wide receiver, 32. On fantasy pros, Zay Flowers is 61st overall, wide receiver, 28. On football guys, he's wide receiver 26th overall, and he's 55th. And by the way, football guys and fantasy pros aggregate different sources. So Zay Flowers is anywhere from 55th to 68th overall, wide receiver 26 to wide receiver 32 overall. It's a huge range. Jamie, you have Zay Flowers on your bus list. What. What is that kind of 80? I don't know. Is that based on a particular ADP? What do you think about Zay Flowers?
- [47:18]
Jamie
It just feels like he always gets drafted too soon.
- [47:22]
Heath
Do you think 55th is too soon? And do you think 68th is too soon? That's the range I see.
- [47:28]
Jamie
58 is the 50. 55th is definitely too soon. 68th is sort of the range where I would start to consider. Consider it. But then it starts to, you know, I'd like to know the receivers going around him because that's a big part of this for me as well.
- [47:38]
Heath
Okay, so that would be.
- [47:42]
Dan
On cbs. It's Jameson Williams, Chris Godwin, they're ahead of him. Jalen Waddle, Chris Olave are going behind him.
- [47:52]
Heath
All right, what's the best case for Zay Flowers?
- [47:54]
Jamie
I just don't think he's going to live up to what his talent level is. It's another one of these guys we talk about every year that he's in, and he's in an amazing offense, but it just does not feature him. And I don't think it ever Will, you know, so maybe there's a bunch of injuries and. And that's what happens. And we see the best of Zay Flowers, but I just think, like, he's going to have these spike games where he looks the part, and then they're going to be games where Mark Andrews scores two touchdowns and Isaiah likely has a big game. And now DeAndre Hopkins in the mix and Rashad Bateman, who led them in receiving touchdowns last year at that position, you know, they're just so many options that Lamar Jackson leans on. Let's not forget about Derrick Henry and the way Lamar Jackson runs, you know, so it's just such a multifaceted offense that they don't need Zay Flowers to be an alpha. You know, he. He is their best receiver. And then they go and add, you know, a proven guy like Hopkins, who I think Jim Harbaugh said was born to be a Raven, and Hopkins said himself, like, he feels like he's a missing piece for them. And they resigned Bateman and they're talking about likely is having a Pro bowl season. So it just doesn't all fit with Andrew still being there. So, yeah, again, I think Flowers is a. They're kind of. I don't want to say they're the same type of player, but it feels like Zay Flowers is almost a better version of Khalil Shakir. You know, just a guy that's going to get you solid production, just not elite production. And if he ever scored more touchdowns, it would be a different conversation. But, like, how far apart are they in terms of being at the same level of production? I just don't see, like, a huge difference for these two guys.
- [49:24]
Dan
You want to know the craziest part?
- [49:25]
Jamie
Just numbers.
- [49:26]
Heath
Yeah.
- [49:27]
Dan
Yeah. 12.3 PPR points per game for Zay Flowers last year, 12.2 for Shakir. So I get it from that perspective. And you. You laid it out, Jamie. There are a lot of mouse to feed in an offense that doesn't throw the ball a ton. And that's what makes me, frankly, upset, because I think Zay Flowers is an amazing talent at wide receiver. I love what he's capable of doing. He's faster than anybody that they have. He's. He's definitely more agile, change directions, all that stuff, but he just doesn't get those opportunities. And you can look back to, I think it was 20, 23 those last five games. Mark Andrews was out, and he was a monster. Zay Flowers was a monster. He was like 17 PPR points per game last year. To start the year, Zay flowers averaged around 15 PPR points per game. Weeks 1 through 9 when Mark Andrews was slow to kind of round in the form. And then we all know that Mark Andrews went on a touchdown streak to basically end last year. There were only three games last year where both Zay Flowers and Mandrews had six plus targets.
- [50:30]
Heath
All right, so here's devil's advocate on Zay Flowers, who's wide receiver 29 in our consensus rankings and in ADP. He's pretty close to that. He is an ascending player. He's going into his third year. I know Jamie loves that. And I actually think there are enough targets because he played 20% of the snaps in Week 18. You take that game away, he's on pace for 121 targets. That's just over seven targets per game. Now, I recognize this. If you draft Zay Flowers, it's going to be a little bit of a bumpy road. Someone pointed out in the chat he has too many games where they're just complete duds. And yeah, the Ravens are great. They don't throw a lot. They're going to win some games by 35 points and they're going to be two targets for Flowers. He's going to be a total dud. But all we need are the touchdowns. 17 game pace for Flowers. Last year, if you remove Week 18 with 78 catches, which isn't great, but it's fine for a guy who's being drafted around wide receiver 30, 11, 12 yards, four touchdowns on 121 targets. So let's get up to seven touchdowns maybe and I could see, see it happening if, if he gets more targets near the end zone because he is an explosive player, he can beat you deep. He is a good yak guy. He's not like, for example, Keenan Allen had a big touchdown problem in his career. He not. He wasn't a big yak guy. He wasn't a downfield guy. Keenan Allen more or less had to catch the ball in the end zone to score a touchdown. Zay Flowers is a dynamic, ascending player who again was getting seven targets per game last year. I think he can find a way to score more touchdowns. Maybe they're on big plays. Remember that stat I gave about the wide receivers that come out of round seven through nine and perform really well? They almost always average seven or more targets per game. Flowers and going to make it to that round, but still, seven targets per game is huge for a wide receiver. He was on pace for that last year. If you remove week 18. It just needs to score more touchdowns. And I think this is a guy. I think you're drafting a more or less at his floor at wide receiver 30.
- [52:28]
Jamie
But do you. Do you think he's getting more targets this year or the same targets? With Hopkins now part of the mix and all the hype that they're giving, whether it happens or not, but likely.
- [52:40]
Dan
You're talking overall targets, Jamie, or like, red zone targets?
- [52:44]
Jamie
Targets per game?
- [52:44]
Heath
I. Yeah, I. I think it could be. I think it could be the same. I think it'd be even better because I think Derrick Henry could have a worse year. Henry averaged, what, almost six yards per carry last year? Something crazy like that, right? Like they might have to throw a little bit more. They always throw for a lot of yarn. A good amount of yards. They'll throw for a good amount of touchdowns. It's just targets and catches that are the problem. They're kind of like the 49ers. The guys make the most out of their targets, like Brandon Iuk and Debo have. So I'm not too concerned about the targets. I. I'm more concerned about the touchdowns because I know the targets aren't going to be great. I think they'll be good enough. All right, let's go to our next.
- [53:20]
Dan
Do you know how many wide receivers in the Lamar Jackson era have averaged 15 or more PPR points?
- [53:25]
Heath
Zero. I know that, but. But I think the fact that Mark Andrews had 69 targets on in 17 games last year and Zay Flowers had 116 tells me a lot. He is the guy. Mark Andrews was phased out more than.
- [53:39]
Dan
Ever last year, but there's a problem, and that's touchdowns. And it's not just Mark Andrews as a blocker to Zay Flowers being a. You know, seeing his touchdowns go up like we're hoping for, for Marvin Harrison, for example, or Brock Bowers, for example. But they got Derrick Henry. And what do you think Derrick Henry's gonna.
- [53:57]
Heath
I know, I know. But here's the thing.
- [53:59]
Dan
Follow up all the touchdowns. I think the miracle Mark Andrews had what he had last year, if you.
- [54:03]
Heath
Draft Flowers as wide receiver 30, I think that's more or less close to his floor.
- [54:08]
Dan
I agree.
- [54:09]
Heath
But if Henry gets hurt or Henry's not as good. This like a devonte Smith situation, not everybody in this. In this group of receivers is like this. I think there's huge upside. Top 15 upside, not top 5 or 6 upside, but top 15 upside for. For Zay Flowers, because he's.
- [54:25]
Jamie
That if he scores. Yeah.
- [54:26]
Heath
All right. Tedro McMillan as a bust. I'm going to play devil's advocate on this. This is Dave's call. He's more or less going right around the same time as Zay Flowers. So we're looking more like wide receiver. 28, 27, 28 for Teterro McMillan. In some places it's going to be ahead of Flowers. In some places that'll be behind him. But you're calling that, you're calling Tettero McMillan a bust.
- [54:49]
Dan
Dave, good talent. I don't like that he's going like basically the round five, six turn. I think he's solid in round six. I'd like him better in round seven. Of course, I'd rather get everybody around and a half after their adp, but I think that the Panthers are still going to spread targets around. They did that for much of last year. There was a spell last year toward the end of the season, Thielen averaged over seven targets per game. But for the most part, the guys in that offense, they're right around six, six and a half targets per game. I think that's where McMillan's going to end up living. So he's going to not only need volume, but he's also going to need really good efficiency, which might be asking too much of a rookie like this to go in and be a big factor and be a big stat producer for the Panthers. I like the way the Panthers finished last year. Love Bryce Young at an 8% touchdown rate to end last year. He looked awesome. Is that coming back this year? I got a question about that too. And so I don't, I don't want to draft McMillan, like call it 60th, 63rd, somewhere in that range. I feel like that's a little too close to the ceiling for a first year receiver that's not known for blazing speed, but for big size.
- [55:55]
Heath
Okay. Devil's advocate on that is I don't buy that argument that they're going to spread the ball around. Adam Thielen is going to be 35 years old next month. Xavier leg, it's coming off a pretty irrelevant rookie season. I think they drafted Tettero McMillan's so they don't have to spread the ball around. And if you look at the wide receivers in this range, Zay flowers, Xavier Worthy, McMillan, George Pickens, Travis Hunter, Jalen Waddle. I think Calvin Ridley falls in. Is, is was one of the better ones. In what I'm about to say, I think Ted Roll McMillan has the most target upside, among the most target upside this guy could get 140 targets, you know, like, I, I'd be hoping for 120 for flowers. McMillan wouldn't shock me if he led every wide receiver. If you're looking at this list, I think the two guys that lead the way in targets are probably Ridley McMillan, maybe Olave, but Devonte Smith, Zay Flowers, Rasheed Rice, George Pickens, Ridley McMillan, Debo Waddle, Olave, Jennings Cup, Pierce. All that's the case I would make is just so much target volume. Jamie.
- [56:58]
Jamie
I would say Rice per game. Yeah, he's on the field. Yeah, I agree with you. I, I think they're gonna, you know, give this guy an opportunity to make plays. Whether that plays itself out, we'll, we'll see. You know, I don't think Adam Thielen is going away because it feels like that's a guy Bryce Young loves. And for what it's worth, Joe Person who covers the Panthers for the Athletic, I think it was last week they did a breakout for every player and he listed Xavier Leguette as the breakout player for the Panthers. He is a former first round pick, you know, so, you know, could he have an opportunity just to be better than he was a year ago, which isn't a big stretch, but also how much of a factor will he be? I just think that they went out and drafted McMillan for a reason, almost exactly the way you laid it out. Like, you see that Bryce Young took a big step forward in the second half of the season after he was benched. You saw this offense starting to look confident. It's one of the more underrated offensive lines in the game, you know. And so for what Dave Canalis is looking to build and to find an alpha in this receiving core, he may have done it. That being said, this isn't a speed guy. This is a guy I think he's gonna have to win on some contested catches. I think touchdowns are going to really matter here for him. So how much will he live up to where he's getting drafted? I think it's, it's a great spot for him because you look at the guys after him, you start talking upside, upside, upside. You also see a lot of the downside. Debo Samuel and his situation, Jalen Waddle and what we saw last year, you know, et cetera, et cetera. And the guys in front of him, you know, look, he's, he's like a Calvin Ridley, you know, on, on a questionable passing game where he's going to be most likely lead guy. Pickens is the Second guy rises his bended flowers. We just got through talking about, you know, so there's, there's a good, this is a good spot to take a chance on somebody that I think if he hits, you're going to be thrilled about it. So I think it's also like what we see with a lot of these rookies, you know, second half of the season I think will matter because until they figure out like, okay, feeling 35 and we get not a, you know, maybe even a start worthy player on his own team, like if McMillan earns those opportunities, I think he's gonna run away with it.
- [58:50]
Heath
How do you guys rank McMillan, Calvin Ridley and Rashid and sorry, Zay flowers in full PPR?
- [58:59]
Dan
Zay first, McMillan second and Ridley third.
- [59:04]
Jamie
Right now it's McMillan, Ridley, flowers.
- [59:07]
Heath
How about in half, PPR.
- [59:10]
Dan
Flowers? It's going to be the same order.
- [59:12]
Heath
For me and same person.
- [59:14]
Jamie
Anytime, Anytime you start to take away the, the PPR factor and go down to non ppr, Flowers loses for me because I don't think the touchdowns are coming.
- [59:21]
Heath
No, but he, but he's not a big receptions guy, right?
- [59:24]
Dan
Yeah, I, I think that that's where McMillan and potentially Ridley could lose.
- [59:29]
Jamie
Well, that's what I'm saying. He's, he's not. Flowers is third for me in any format. But the, the further away we get from ppr, it's harder to buy flowers.
- [59:36]
Heath
All right, because that's an interesting take because instead of thinking about the receptions is thinking about the touchdowns. But I could see that. Okay, last One here is DeAndre Swift. So I'll just channel my inner heath. I'll just make the devil's advocate case. Dave, you have him as a bust. DeAndre Swift. There's another guy. ADP is really wildly different depending on where you go. On CBS, 70th overall, RB27. But on fantasy pros, 59th overall, RB21 for DeAndre Swift. And football guys is right in the middle. 24th running back off the board and 64th overall. Let's just call him RB24 and say he's about six, about 64th. Right. Football guys is basically the average of CBS and fantasy pros. He has never finished. He stopped me if you heard this because he's been, you know, banging this drum. DeAndre Swift has never finished lower than RB24 per game. Now it's been three years in a row where he's been basically RB23 or 24 per game. I think actually one of those years he had a lot of catches, so he was higher in ppr. But, but my other devil's advocate case is like, oh, you look at Swift, oh, he wasn't good last year. He averaged 3.8 yards per carry. That was a career low. Roshan Johnson averaged 2.7 yards per carry. I think his longest run was 9 yards. Roshan Johnson. So I don't think this was necessarily a Swift problem here. I guess my point is I, I think I agree with Heath on this one. I don't know how he does worse. How does DeAndre stuff have the worst year of his career when he's never been worse than RB24 per game and he's left four or five seasons, he's left at least one game early with an injury. So how is this a bus case for a guy who's basically going at his floor?
- [61:20]
Dan
I would agree that he's going pretty close to his floor, but to me he's so unexciting and I know that there is an opportunity. Obviously Chicago went through the entire off season, didn't do boo to improve their run game. It's going to be DeAndre Swift leading the way. But he's been basic four of the last five seasons and yeah, that might mean 23rd or 24th at running back overall. And yeah, I guess you're drafting that right around 70th overall. That's not necessarily such a bad thing. That's good running back depth. That's a guy that you could potentially start each week as your RB2, assuming that you've got other good players at other positions on your team, loaded at wide receiver, maybe you win Hero rb. You get my point? I, I, he's never been consistently good. He's never really been a short yardage goal line guy. Past five years with one yard to go. Short yardage situations, 50 carries. He's converted 32 of them inside the five. 84 snaps over the last five years, 45 rushes, 17 touchdowns, 10 in 20, 24 with Chicago for three touchdowns. So yeah, I guess we're drafting them pretty close to the floor. That's the type of player that I like to draft. But if I'm drafting a guy and I go, okay, I'm going to pencil him in for what he's been the past few years. That's 12 and a half PPR points per game. There's going to be a voice in my head that says I can find somebody better than that, I can find somebody with more upside than that. And, and I just, I, I'm still going to assume that even though the Bears didn't add anything they're going to share. He's going to have to lose some carries along the way because that's what we've seen from Ben Johnson's offenses in Detroit. He's not going to be a full time workhorse. I'd be shocked if he gave him a bunch of short yardage goal line opportunities and I'd be. Honestly, I'd be shocked if. I don't know. He should be in the range for around 40 catches. Maybe that gets him close to 50 catches and that would help him out, obviously, but he just hasn't been a great fantasy running back. If you're drafting him in round six, though, I, I suppose I can't argue with that much.
- [63:18]
Heath
Yeah, he, he is. DeAndre Swift is arguably the worst goal line or short yardage back in football, basically among, you know, regular running backs who get carries. So I definitely can't make that, I can't make that case for him.
- [63:32]
Jamie
Do you think his conversion rate would be so bad if he got those chances in Philadelphia behind that offensive line?
- [63:38]
Dan
I mean, he, I can look him up and probably what they were.
- [63:42]
Heath
Yeah, there's, there's different ways to measure short yardage. Dave gave you some throughout his career. Third and one and fourth and one. I mean, it is so bad. And he wasn't the goal line back last year. Roshan was. So that's not, that's not going to be, I think, a big part of his game. But he does break big runs all the time. He's one of the most explosive running backs in football. It's like since he entered the league, the only guys with more carries of 35 or more yards than DeAndre Swift are, I want to say, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley, something like that. Jamie, what do you. Where are you on Swift?
- [64:18]
Jamie
Oh, I, I'm not as high as Heath is, but I do think that you're getting a very good player at this spot for sure, given his opportunity. Like we're sitting here and saying Caleb Williams got better and DJ Moore might get better and Romo dunesday is going to get better and Colson Love Island's in his great spot, Luther Burton's in a great spot, but DeAndre Swift sucks, you know, and, and giving everybody else a pass for last year and not giving Swift a pass for last year. And I think the numbers you gave on Swift and Roshan sort of illustrate that, like in a bad situation, he still was better than his competition a lot. And that's what he's still competing with this year.
- [64:52]
Heath
Now I guess for, for, I guess I should be fair. Jamie to Roshan like he only had 55 carries and a number of them were near the goal line. So that's not going to help your yards per carry, but go ahead.
- [65:02]
Jamie
True. But in any event it was, it was pretty awful for everything Chicago related last season. And as, as they pointed out, they did nothing. You know, they drafted seventh round running back, you know, so there still could be Devin Singletary gets cut and they go get him, you know, or somebody from Detroit's end of their roster, you know, gets released. And that's something that Ben Johnson wants because of familiarity, you know. So we don't know how this is all going to play out. But I think as we say to it right now, like you look at this list and Hampton starting, you know, there because I think the other guy's a little bit more proven. But like Hampton and who he's sharing with is obviously a very established guy. As long as Naji Harris's health is okay. Montgomery's in a timeshare where he may be fading a little bit more as he gets older and Jameer Gibbs is trending in the right direction to Revion Anderson is going to share with Ramandre Stevenson. Like, you know, you start to see all these competitions and you know, he's the lead guy. Swift is and yes, he hasn't had elite level production but he's been, you know, I think a little bit better than basic. So it's, it's, it's a, a, it's a fallback number two running back I think that you're looking at as opposed to where like Heath is very aggressive in how he ranks him and drafts him. I would rather have Hampton for example. I think Heath is the other way on that, you know, so it's just, it's just a matter of, I think you know, where, where you're able to draft him. So with a hero RB or zero RB approach, he's one of my favorite players with a, you know, going running back heavy. I'm probably not taking down yourself last.
- [66:29]
Dan
In Philadelphia in 2023, he had 14 carries inside the five. He had four touchdowns.
- [66:35]
Heath
He had six carries that went to the one yard line. They were all followed up by Jalen Hurts put push, push touchdowns. So he's had some bad touchdown luck in that season rushing touchdowns last year. Look, I think the catches are actually a big thing for him because that's been, that was his specialty early in his career and it hasn't really been the case the last few seasons.
- [66:58]
Jamie
He did that with the one year of Ben Johnson.
- [67:01]
Heath
Yeah, you're right. You're right. Now they got obviously the added target competition, but even if he is not really having any competition, DeAndre Swift has never averaged more than 15 carries per game. So he's kind of Aaron Jones, like, in that. I feel like the most you could expect would be 250, 260 carries.
- [67:18]
Jamie
You're not going to have that stretch in Philadelphia, though.
- [67:21]
Heath
Well, he had that game against Minnesota where he had like 27 carries or something because they were playing six men in the box or whatever. But no, but for a season, he's never averaged more than 15 per game. He needs. He probably needs 40 catches. I wouldn't say needs, but that'd be nice.
- [67:37]
Dan
He averaged five targets per game in Detroit in 2022.
- [67:41]
Heath
Yeah, that's great.
- [67:42]
Dan
Now, if he's. And he's averaged right around 3.1 each of his prior two seasons, Chicago, Philadelphia, two offenses that didn't necessarily throw to their running backs a ton. If, if that's going to be a Ben Johnson staple and they're going to lean on him in the past game, then A, we've, we've got to rethink a little bit about some of those peripheral pass catchers in Chicago. And B, then we're definitely underrating DeAndre Swift. It's possible he can get back there. Can't say it's not. That would help Eth's case.
- [68:09]
Heath
All right, I hope this was a helpful show for all of you. I was going to read some emails, but gonna cut it short here and just read one. It's from Scuba Steve. You know, a few weeks ago or last week, I said that obviously Raphael was everybody's favorite Ninja Turtle. And then I did a Twitter poll and I was very, very wrong. So Scuba Steep says I'm going to handle this Ninja Turtles debate. Everyone wanted to be Michelangelo because he was the coolest. Donatello was the easiest character to use in the video games. However, after the live action movies, most wanted to be Raphael because he kicks the entire Foot Clan's butt, especially in Secret of the Ooze. And I did think this was a great theory, of course, because it backed up your theory. No, I just. I didn't really realize what my theory was. I think he's right. I think that's why I said that, because I grew up with that with all the cartoons, too, but with.
- [69:01]
Jamie
That's basically just another way of saying Adam is the greatest here's my question.
- [69:05]
Heath
No, I didn't think. I wasn't saying it like that at all. I just. I didn't realize where it was coming from. I think that's a good, great point that he makes. And the movies, really? Like, you wanted to be Raphael. Yeah. Okay, well, I wanted to be Raphael, I'll tell you that much. We will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Day. Thanks so much for watching, everybody.
- [69:23]
Jamie
We'll see you.
- [69:32]
Scuba Steve
Paramount podcasts the first season of CBS's.
- [69:36]
Dave
New hit NCIS Origins is now streaming. NIS. The hell's that?
- [69:44]
Heath
Naval Investigative Service.
- [69:45]
Dave
We go where the evidence takes us.
- [69:47]
Jamie
We got this.
- [69:49]
Heath
88.
- [69:50]
Dan
Fresh on rotten tomatoes.
- [69:52]
Dave
You don't see folks trying to affect change, but here you are. Got a body waiting for us. Gives welcome to the team.
- [70:01]
Dan
NCIS Origin Season 1, now streaming on Paramount. Plus.