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DO NOT DRAFT LIST! 12 Players We're Avoiding in 2025 (02/17 Fantasy Football Podcast)
00:51:40
How old is too old? Are the Lions going to be disappointing for Fantasy? Is Anthony Richardson worth the risk?
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- [00:00]
Adam Azer
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- [01:21]
Unknown
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- [01:51]
Heath Cummings
This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
- [01:55]
Dave Richard
Wanna play?
- [01:56]
Adam Azer
Can you believe this? No, I can't.
- [01:59]
Heath Cummings
It's time to dominate your fantas.
- [02:04]
Adam Azer
This is gonna go the distance.
- [02:06]
Heath Cummings
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and.
- [02:09]
Adam Azer
Hey, what's up everybody? Welcome to the show. I don't like the long layoff. It's just been too long since we've spoken. Thursday to Tuesday, we had the long weekend. I've lost my rhythm. I don't even know what to do. I'm gonna ask you guys this. What has been better, the all star weekend or the four Nations Face Off? What have you guys been enjoying more.
- [02:33]
Dave Richard
When was allstar weekend?
- [02:34]
Adam Azer
You just passed Dave. Same weekend as your anniversary.
- [02:38]
Dave Richard
What do you mean my anniversary?
- [02:39]
Adam Azer
When's in your anniversary?
- [02:40]
Dave Richard
Anniversary is in November.
- [02:41]
Adam Azer
Oh, Valentine's Day. That's why you going out for Valentine's day. I forgot the tequila.
- [02:44]
Dave Richard
What a disaster that was. What a disaster the starts of the show is the hockey was better. I didn't even know it was all star weekend. I really didn't. Really, really didn't.
- [02:53]
Adam Azer
Hockey was better. I would agree. I.
- [02:56]
Heath Cummings
What four nations?
- [02:58]
Adam Azer
I know the answer to this. I've been watching. Dave, what four nations are in the hockey?
- [03:03]
Dave Richard
Usa, Canada, Sweden. And I want to say France. Yeah, France is what I'm gonna say.
- [03:14]
Adam Azer
You got the letter right. It's Finland, usa Finland, USA Canada. Thursday final. Very exciting.
- [03:22]
Dave Richard
Same freaking part of the world.
- [03:24]
Adam Azer
Three fights in nine seconds. That was wild. Anyway, welcome to fantasy football today everybody. We'll go some some quick news and notes. We have 12 players on our do not draft list. Four from Jamie, four from Dave, four from Heath. News and notes real quick. The Bengals, according to Sports Illustrated plan to franchise tag T. Higgins. Remember, you can use the franchise tag just to buy yourself some time to come to a long term agreement or make a trade. But he was franchise tagged last year as well. So that's an option for the Bengals. We've got a lot of, you know, moving pieces at quarterback. We got Matthew Stafford trade rumblings. We've got sports illustrators Albert Breer saying that many are connecting the dots between Kirk Cousins and the Cleveland Browns. Aaron Rodgers is not gonna be on the Jets. We don't even know if he's gonna play this year. But the jets are going to release him. The Raiders are not going to bring back Gardner Minshew. The Steelers, we saw a report that they were going to decide either between Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. So some veteran quarterbacks are going to be out there. I may have missed one. Going to be an interesting year, especially for those top three teams. How sold are they on Shadow Sanders or Cam Ward? Cleveland, Tennessee and the Giants, are they going to dip into the veteran quarterback pool and maybe skip a quarterback in round one? The Dolphins release Raheem Mostert and Detroit offensive coordinator John Morton, new offensive coordinator coordinator said that the offense will be predicated on Jared Goff. And I'm just, I don't think we need to spend much time on that. But Jamie, give me your thoughts on the T. Higgins situation.
- [04:53]
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean it's exciting that he's going to stay with Joe Burrow, you know, so unless he was going to or still can end up with a premier quarterback and be the one. Because he's not going to be the one with the Bengals. He'll be the one a. You saw what he's capable of when he's healthy, you know, over the, the course of his tenure with the Bengals. With the Bengals, Jamar Chase and Joe Burrow together, it's. It's still very encouraging for his career and his production and his fantasy value. So he could have. Could still be a top 10 fantasy receiver. I think he's more of a top 15 guy, but someone that you'll. You'll probably look to draft in round three.
- [05:32]
Adam Azer
Look at this, Heath. I'm just going to promote FFT Dynasty, but I'm gonna get Louise to do it. In our chat, Louise says February 17, which was yesterday, needs to be a national holiday, national trading day. There were seven trades in his Dynasty league yesterday, and it was a national holiday. How about that? Have you ever seen seven trades in one day in a Dynasty league?
- [05:55]
Heath Cummings
Probably, yes. But not a random day in February. No, I've seen that happen, like during the middle of a rookie draft. But that's, that's a good league if in the middle of February you've got seven different trades happening.
- [06:10]
Adam Azer
And make sure you check out FFT Dynasty. Oh, tell us what's coming up this week.
- [06:15]
Heath Cummings
It's in just about an hour and 15 minutes, I will have Scott Boulanger, aka Jax Falcone, aka Dino Game Theory. On discussing his anatomy of a top 12. He looks at who the current top 12 with these each position are and what traits they shared as prospects. And we'll talk a little bit about my new top 12. I've got my top 12 rankings coming out this week on the site.
- [06:42]
Adam Azer
Excellent. FFT Dynasty. It's in its own feed if you want to. Well, not on YouTube, but its own audio feed. Fantasy Football Today, Dynasty on YouTube. You can see it all@YouTube.com fantasy football today. You can see all of our shows there. All right, so we've got our do not draft list. This doesn't mean never, under any circumstances are we drafting these guys. It's kind of based on what we expect ADP to be. Players that probably just aren't going to be on our teams. Jamie's got a whole big list of old guys. You just gave me three very extensive lists. I took four names from each list. So here's Jamie's list. I want to know if Heath or Dave disagree with these names. James Connor is going to be 30 years old in May. He was RB11 overall and RB15 per game and he had two injured games. Would have been a top 12 running back per game if you remove the two injured games for James Connor. So Connor, Mike Evans who was 11th per game in PPR, sixth per game in non PPR. Mike Evans, Devonte Adams who was 12th per game in full PPR, 13th per game in non PPR. And Travis Kelsey, tight end. Actually this is kind of interesting, the difference between full and non PPR for Kelsey. 12th per game in non PPR, seventh per game in full PPR because he only had three touchdowns, but he did have 97 catches. So it's James Connor, Mike Evans, Devonte Adams and Travis Kelsey. Any disagreement on this from Heath or Dave?
- [08:06]
Heath Cummings
I think this is a good time to add the caveat that like we don't actually know what ADP is going to be and I would draft any player we're going to talk about at the right cost.
- [08:18]
Dave Richard
Okay, so. Oh, sorry. He's good.
- [08:20]
Heath Cummings
No, so like, I mean if we could maybe for reference talk about where they were drafted in the drafts we've done so far, like the one in particular that we've seen fall a lot I feel like is Travis Kelsey because people don't know for sure if he's going to play. If people are going to draft him as the seventh or eighth highest tight end after round six or seven, then I'm probably still fine with that.
- [08:44]
Adam Azer
Okay, so I'll give you where they went. James Connor, round three or James Connor, round six. James Connor, round six, Mike Evans, round three, 12 team PPR by the way, Devonte Adams, round six, Travis Kelsey, round eight. So in order it was Evans round three, Adams in round six, Connor a little bit later in round six, Kelsey in round eight. How about Jamie, do you at those prices would you be in on any of those four?
- [09:10]
Jamie Eisenberg
Probably all but Evans.
- [09:12]
Adam Azer
Okay, so you thought it was fair to for them to be round six.
- [09:17]
Jamie Eisenberg
If you're getting these, these caliber players in this spot. I just don't think that's going to be realistic. Maybe outside of Kelsey, depending on when we're, you know, considering these drafts. Because I think Heath nailed it. But you also have Adams, you know, the uncertainty. I think once he ends up with the team his he will not be around six picks.
- [09:34]
Adam Azer
Okay. And he was just at the beginning of round six. All right, so anybody more bullish on these guys?
- [09:41]
Dave Richard
I want to see where Devonte Adams ends up and if he's got the opportunity to get double digit targets per Game like he's done last year. He did it and the year before in Vegas After Josh McDaniels got fired. He had that. It'll be a little inconsistent, but I could see myself going with Adams is around 5ish type of settle for wide receiver.
- [10:03]
Heath Cummings
Could Adams and Rogers. Adams I guess back to. And Rogers for the first time go to Vegas.
- [10:11]
Jamie Eisenberg
I'd be very surprised if they brought Adams back.
- [10:14]
Dave Richard
I don't know their cap situation either. And if, if they can do that because it'll be expensive for Adams, it won't be for Rogers, I think, I think Rogers. The tab on Rogers is being paid for by the jets this year. So Rogers kind of gets to pick where he wants to go. And Adams could follow him or Adams could go to New Orleans and try it again with Derek Carr.
- [10:36]
Heath Cummings
The raiders have the second most cap space.
- [10:39]
Dave Richard
That helps their cause for sure.
- [10:40]
Heath Cummings
95 million.
- [10:43]
Adam Azer
So all of these guys except for Kelsey had good years. You know, James Connor, 4.6 yards per carry, very good advanced metrics again. He would have been a top 10 running back per game if not for the two games he left early. I don't really know if he has a lot of competition. I mean we like Benson as a name. He didn't really do much. He didn't really have much of an opportunity. You know, he's basically a workhorse who had, who was on pace. If you remove the injured games. He was on pace for 50 catches and 1,765 total yards. And it's two years in a row now where he's been really good and really efficient for the Cardinals. Evans top 12 wide receiver again, although definitely much, much better after Chris Godwin got hurt. But Godwin's coming back from a serious injury. Adams if he's back at all. If he's back at all. Yep. Adams top 12 wide receiver per game. It just barely on pace for 171 targets. On pace for 176 targets with the Jets. You know, he, he, he had a better statistical season than he did in 2023 when a lot of his metrics are pretty crummy. But still, like you could see he's not the same player he used to be. Kelsey has. I mean, like Kelsey, it's so obvious right in front of our faces. We can see he's just not the same player he used to be. But yeah, where are we on the other guys? Where are we on all them? Heath.
- [12:04]
Heath Cummings
Well, I was just going to say like even the Kelsey one, he was much closer to tight End four than he was to tight end eight. Like with three touchdowns, he was a point and a half per game better than Mark Andrews and Sam Laporta. So I think there's a pretty good case that if he plays next year, he could be better than he was this year. But Evans in particular, I was really high on this past year, and it kind of seems like from our early drafts that people might be about where I was on him last year now, and I will be out if that's the case.
- [12:39]
Dave Richard
Does it bother you that 27 of his PPR total came from touchdowns?
- [12:46]
Heath Cummings
Sounds a lot like Mike Evans.
- [12:49]
Adam Azer
Well, that, like, if you just look at the differences between Evans and Kelsey, Evans still gets so many end zone targets, and that's actually gone away for Travis kelce. He has 12 end zone targets in his last two seasons combined. In 2022, he had 10. And another thing that really concerns me is, like, look at how bad he was. He averaged four targets per game the first three games of the year when Rashee Rice was healthy, and then toward the end of the year when Xavier Worthy started taking over, Kelsey wasn't really that good. So when they're both on the field. Yikes. And what do they do they bring back Marquis Brown? I don't know, you know, so I don't think anyone's going to argue with Kelsey in round eight or nine. Round eight, where he went in this last draft. But you know, Jamie, of the four, who, who do you. Who are you concerned about just completely falling off a cliff and being basically useless, if any of them.
- [13:39]
Jamie Eisenberg
Useless? Yeah, I don't think anybody's going to be completely useless. The one that probably concerns me the most, assuming Kelsey plays, because clearly that's the biggest detractor for him right now is probably Conor, just because of his age and his position. I know we got, you know, sort of. I don't say lucky, but we got away with, you know, these guys having very productive years at, at their ages, you know, Connor and Jones and obviously Derek Henry in particular, as they, you know, either turn 30 during the season or in the case of Henry turned 31 at the end of the season. It just doesn't happen year over year for these guys. And so at some point Father time is going to catch up to them. And, and in. In case. In the case of the receivers, you know, I think Heath has a great theory working theory of, you know, when they start to show you that they're declining is really the time to buy into them declining. Bill Belichick also Has a pretty good theory as well that, you know, you want to get out a year before it's, you know, a problem. And, you know, so I was, I was probably 50, 50 on some of these guys across the board, you know, between the older players, because I'm probably the, the biggest ageist that we have and look, look bad on some of these guys. Obviously, in, in the case of how they finished, you know, Evans missed four games last year. You know, at what point does that hamstring injury pop up again and it becomes a bigger problem. Devonte Adams got sort of rescued going back to Aaron Rodgers. If he has, you know, another quarterback change, another system change, he's not the focal point of the offense. How much bad does, how much worse does he start to look at his age? You know, so they're all concerning to me. I don't think they're all going to just completely be terrible. I think we'll have some, some, you know, half, half a season maybe of, of quality production and half a season of why did I draft these? I don't think we're getting like DeAndre Hopkins out of these guys, you know, those, those type of performances or hopefully not Cooper cup where there's injuries and then just poor performance.
- [15:23]
Dave Richard
Is there anybody on this show that could see a path to taking any of these four older players with a top 50 pick?
- [15:32]
Jamie Eisenberg
I think Evans is definitely going in the first 50.
- [15:35]
Dave Richard
Would you take them with the top?
- [15:36]
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh, I'm not, no. I think around fours is, is an okay spot to buy into Evans, depending on what happens with Godwin. Because if they bring back Godwin and then McMillan's still a factor and then you factor in age, like we're starting to see maybe what we saw at the beginning of last season when they were working in some other guys and Evans just wasn't as productive to start the year.
- [15:57]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, good.
- [15:58]
Jamie Eisenberg
He just wasn't elite.
- [15:59]
Heath Cummings
If he's there at the four or five turn, I'm going to do a dance of joy. It won't be, but yes, yes.
- [16:06]
Jamie Eisenberg
And I can see based on adp, because we know how people still get nostalgic for names like if Adam's in your. In. You know, Dave, you brought up, I think two scenarios over the course of the last couple weeks, one being Green Bay, one being New Orleans, you know, so going back to the packers and maybe being their number one guy there, as, you know, you sort of suggested. And then New Orleans makes some sense because they have, you know, a need for receivers and, and the car connection so if either of those two situations where he's walking in as the number one guy, because he would be in those two cases, then I think people get over excited and overdrafted.
- [16:37]
Dave Richard
Right. But I don't know if I would, I don't know if I would take devonte in that round four range in either.
- [16:44]
Jamie Eisenberg
I think you would. I think people would.
- [16:46]
Dave Richard
I'm not saying you right, but my question was asking my, my fellow countrymen here on the show about whether or not they would do it. And maybe I'll end up taking Mike Evans with the top 48 pick after all. Maybe he's right that like that round four or five turn is a good place to get him. And obviously if Devonte Adams ends up in a good spot, that's going to be the same exact range. I, I, I will end up falling in love for James Connor as the round five pick just to be that subtle for RB2, he's had at least 15 PPR points per game four straight seasons. I don't think he should, I would have to go back and watch and maybe Adam, you can jog my memory. I don't know if he showed that like he's slowing down as a player and that's just all about touchdowns for him. I think he can still contribute if he's in that position where he can be the main running back for Arizona, whose offensive line I think will get better this off season.
- [17:39]
Adam Azer
Connor spent a lot of his career behind some of the worst offensive lines in football. The end of his Pittsburgh tenure, the beginning of his Arizona tenure. And, and he's, it was a little bit better just according to pff and yeah, just according to PFF last year, he is not an explosive player. Now we have a metric on true media called explosive run rate and it's runs of 12 or more yards and he actually ranks pretty high in that. But I think that if you want to use the word explosive, I don't really view 12 yard. You know, it's just, it's all whatever you want. It's, it's subjective. Right. If you want to talk about like 30 yard carries, you don't, you don't get a lot of those. He's not running away from people. He hasn't been for either of the last two seasons. But he's a productive running back who doesn't have a lot of bad carries. You know, he moves, falls forward, stays ahead of the sticks. That kind of player gets touchdowns. He gets touchdowns. He's on the field a lot. So in that Regard. I wouldn't call him an explosive player. He's. He's not making a lot of big plays, but he's also, you know, not making a lot of negative plays.
- [18:40]
Heath Cummings
I do think though, you're selling him a. Like you. You're talking about him like a plotter.
- [18:48]
Adam Azer
No, no, he's better than that 53.
- [18:50]
Heath Cummings
Yard carry last year at a 44 yard carry the year before. He's averaged YPC for life. 4.7 yards per carry over the last three seasons.
- [19:00]
Adam Azer
But I'm. I'm very. I complimentary of him. I'm not selling him short. I'm just saying he's not a guy who has a lot of long runs. He doesn't do that very often. If he, he had two runs last year, more than 20 yards, I could be wrong about that. Two or three.
- [19:15]
Dave Richard
I'll check. I'm on it right now.
- [19:17]
Adam Azer
Yeah, I might be confusing him with some with J.K. dobbins because I was, I was, I was looking up his stats on him because we're talking about him later. We have to take a break. Sorry. Take a break. I want to come back and just talk about wide receiver age. In a moment. We'll be right back. On fantasy football today, what is Dax?
- [19:36]
Dave Richard
Are you tracking all our cars on Carvana Value Tracker on all our devices? Yes, Kristen, yes I am.
- [19:43]
Unknown
Well, I've been looking for my phone for.
- [19:44]
Dave Richard
In Dax's domain we see all. So we always know what our cars are worth.
- [19:49]
Adam Azer
All of them?
- [19:50]
Heath Cummings
All of them.
- [19:51]
Dave Richard
Value surge trucks up 3.9%.
- [19:54]
Unknown
That's a great offer.
- [19:55]
Dave Richard
I know. Sell.
- [19:57]
Adam Azer
Sell.
- [19:59]
Dave Richard
Track your car's value with Carvana Value tracker today.
- [20:04]
Unknown
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- [21:05]
Adam Azer
Conner had two carries longer than 23 yards last year on 236 carries.
- [21:12]
Dave Richard
Six carries, 20 plus yards.
- [21:14]
Jamie Eisenberg
No.
- [21:14]
Adam Azer
Well, he had six. He had four carries of 20 to 23 yards. He had two, like really long carries. That's all I'm saying. And I don't want to nitpick too much. He ain't Jameer Gibbs. I think we can all agree on that.
- [21:24]
Heath Cummings
I think you've done a really good job of illustrating, like, when you're having this type of discussion, it matters so much where you're setting the line at. Like, we use true media for a lot of things. They have something called explosive run rate.
- [21:38]
Adam Azer
You think a 13 yard run is an explosive run that.
- [21:41]
Heath Cummings
Well, I don't have a stat called explosive run rate.
- [21:45]
Adam Azer
I'm just criticizing.
- [21:48]
Heath Cummings
And that's how they classify it. And you're not even saying a round number like 20 because he had too many 21.
- [21:55]
Adam Azer
It's not that many.
- [21:56]
Heath Cummings
We're gonna use this ridiculous number of.
- [21:59]
Adam Azer
23 yards or long. That's not what I'm doing.
- [22:02]
Heath Cummings
You specifically said you chose that number because he had carries of 20 to 21.
- [22:08]
Adam Azer
Steve asked me if I. What if he had slowed down or whatever. I was just g giving context on the kind of rusher that James Connor is. And you're nitpicking and picking apart everything I say, which is what you did last night. Hold on. And I'm just saying he's not someone that has a whole bunch of like, big plays. He's not like big play guy. He's very productive running back in his own way, but he's not a super fast guy who's running away from people. I don't. Who would disagree with that. That's exactly what he is.
- [22:34]
Heath Cummings
I. I am. I was not nitpicking you. I'm saying that when we talk about stats, this is what we do. Like we choose our own line to make our own point.
- [22:44]
Adam Azer
I'm just not making a point about him. I'm just. I'm not criticizing him. I'm not saying. Do you think he's. He's an explosive player who's, you know, creating big plays all the time?
- [22:54]
Dave Richard
No. But he's not a plotter either.
- [22:56]
Adam Azer
No, I didn't.
- [22:57]
Dave Richard
Never said he was ultimately he gets the job done. He's top 10, or at least last year he was top 10 in success rate among qualifying running backs. That means that he would either convert first downs or take a first and 10 play and get half the yardage needed. Same thing with the second down play. He was. He was good. He was functional. And as long as he's getting the same amount of opportunity this year as he got last year and he avoids getting hurt, it's really easy to buy into James Conner with a round five pick. And then if you want to back him up with Trey Benson, that's not going to be expensive either. I. I think it's a decent strategy to keep in mind if you go receiver heavy with your first four picks.
- [23:38]
Adam Azer
All right. Speaking of receivers, Evans and Adams are both going to be 32 years old this year. Adams already is 32 years old. He turned 32 on Christmas Eve. That really does seem to be like the kind of a fall off the cliff type of year. And we just saw DeAndre Hopkins and Keenan Allen play in their age 32 seasons. There are some really good age 32 seasons, but that's. I think going back, you could find a big difference between age 31 and age 32. Like, look at Keenan Allen, look at Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson. These guys were great at 31. I'd have to go back and look, but I don't think they were necessarily great at 32. So this is worthy of. Julio Jones is another guy worthy of more research. But 32 is a dangerous year, and Adams and Evans are both going to be 32.
- [24:30]
Dave Richard
Is it 32 or is it 10 years of playing football and then your body's starting to wear down?
- [24:37]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yes.
- [24:38]
Adam Azer
All right, Dave, let's hear from you. Let's hear your do not draft list. You've got DeAndre Swift, J.K. dobbins, George Pickens, and Anthony Richardson.
- [24:47]
Dave Richard
Not the sexy high profile names that, that Jamie gave, but still players that I'm gonna hesitate taking. Who do you want to talk about first?
- [24:56]
Adam Azer
Well, I was. I meant to go through it and see where they were drafted, but I messed that up. So Swift was round six, Dobbins was three picks earlier. Oh, Anthony Richardson was right in between them. Okay, this is the stretch in round six. Dobbins, Tyrone, Tracy, Anthony Richardson, James Conner, DeAndre Swift. Heath took Swift. And then who else did we have? We had George Pickens. Pickens was in round four, late round four, and Richardson already said was in round six. So you have Richardson and Swift and dobbins. In round six. And George Pickens with the 47th pick.
- [25:36]
Dave Richard
Late round four again, who do you want me to start with?
- [25:38]
Adam Azer
Well, how about Jamie and Heath? Any disagreements here?
- [25:42]
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, I drafted Pickens, so depending on who they ad, that will change that. But I was very happy to take him at the spot that I took.
- [25:52]
Heath Cummings
I think there's a really good case to be made for why DeAndre Swift is going to have a breakout year this year. And there's a really good case to be made for why DeAndre Swift is going to get replaced by a plotter like James Connor this year. I, I would. I, I took him in round six. I absolutely love that value. I think there's huge, huge upside in round six. If he gets into the round three range, I'm gonna be out.
- [26:21]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah.
- [26:23]
Adam Azer
All right, Dave, go ahead. Your thoughts?
- [26:25]
Dave Richard
I might. I don't know what I would do if DeAndre Swift made it into round three. The rest of the Bears depth chart must be like ghosts if that's gonna happen. Last time that he was paired up with Ben Johnson, it was in Detroit. They had a season together. It was 2022. He did average 13.7 PPR points per game. That is not round three worthy. I'd say that's around five, six worthy. But he only had five games with 15 plus PPR points, including two in the last two weeks of the season. This was the year that Jamal Williams had 17 touchdowns. So two years ago, the new head coach of the Chicago Bears already felt like DeAndre Swift wasn't a full time running back. In fact, he only had three games with 15 or more touches. Nine of 14 games with 10 or fewer touches. I would suspect that if he's even still on the Bears when the season starts, that would be the range that he would be in is around 10, maybe 12 touches.
- [27:21]
Jamie Eisenberg
Cost for them to move on from it might be.
- [27:23]
Dave Richard
I'd have to double check that. But it's a huge cost. Okay, so if it is a huge cost, then I think we know what they want his role to be. Perfect world. They find another running back to come in and be a more physical guy. And this running back class is littered with those guys. So I don't think it's going to be Roshan Johnson. I think it'll be a rookie and Swift and the rookie will split. And we know that this is an offense that is definitely under construction. The O line needs a lot of help. They can dedicate themselves all they want to the run game just like Detroit did, but it doesn't mean that they're going to be as successful as Detroit was. I don't know if DeAndre Swift can hold up and, and I don't know if like we had the opportunity to see him do well this past season and where did he end up? 12.6 ppr points per game and he was even sharing then so the age isn't an issue. He's 26 and we know that he's got some speed because he had some explosive plays last year. But I don't want to pencil him in as my RB2 if I can help it. Maybe, maybe a low end RB2. Just thinking about, well, are there really 23 or 24 of the running backs that I'd rather have than Swift? And when I think about some of the rookies and where they could potentially end up, I think the answer to that question is yes. And so he definitely makes me nervous as somebody maybe around six, seven, somewhere in that range is the right spot. But I don't want to, I don't want to trust him as a starter on my fantasy team.
- [28:46]
Adam Azer
Well, he's always been bad in short yardage and he had six carries from the three yard line or closer and Swift scored two touchdowns whereas Roshan Johnson had eight carries from the three yard liner closer. Now I haven't looked if maybe Roshan Johnson's were all like at the one, I don't know but he scored six touchdowns. In fact DeAndre Swift with those six carries from the three or closer. Four of them were in one game. So he wasn't used as the goal line back last year. It's never been a strength of his. He averaged only 15 carries per game. 14.9 carries per game in 17 games. You know this is a team. The Bears actually had the fifth most running back carries from the three yard line or closer. That's a great opportunity. And he scored only six touchdowns.
- [29:26]
Jamie Eisenberg
I want, Are you, are you judging his short yardage success or failures based on his touchdowns?
- [29:32]
Adam Azer
Well, he's always, you know, oh, it.
- [29:34]
Dave Richard
Should be on opportunities more than touchdowns.
- [29:37]
Adam Azer
Well, if one guy has eight carries for six touchdowns and one guy has six carries for two touchdowns then I think.
- [29:42]
Dave Richard
Right, exactly.
- [29:43]
Jamie Eisenberg
Well, I'm just, I'm not disagreeing with you that he struggles there. I just wonder if he had gotten a lot of the tush push touchdowns and he's converting those behind a very good offensive line because last year he was doing behind a bad offense. So and so we have the perception be different.
- [29:55]
Adam Azer
We all think yeah, but I'm comparing him to Roshan Johnson on the same team.
- [29:58]
Jamie Eisenberg
No, I'm not. Again, I'm not saying you're going back.
- [30:01]
Dave Richard
Two years to when he was in Philly and he lost the perception be.
- [30:04]
Jamie Eisenberg
Different if he had converted those touchdowns that were taken away from him because the touch.
- [30:07]
Dave Richard
I mean maybe there's a reason, but I think it's. I think it's important to note that this is now. This is now. If we include Philadelphia and Chicago last year, three different coaching staffs that have viewed DeAndre with the way that Adam is suggesting that we view DeAndre Swift.
- [30:21]
Adam Azer
And it was Jacob who actually brought it to my attention during last off season that Swift has been bad from short yardage. I'll just look from 2020 to 2024. I'll look at the third, third and fourth and one conversion rate and where he ranks and he is 116th out of 128 running backs who have had 100 or more carries in that stretch. But if you want to be encouraged, the guy right in front of him is Saquon Barkley. Saquon Barkley has also been horrible in third and fourth and one conversion rate and so has Josh Jacobs. So maybe it doesn't really matter that much. But I just think he wasn't viewed as the goal lineback. Dobbins what's your beef with Dobbins, Dave?
- [31:04]
Dave Richard
He had seven games last year with 15 or more PPR points. Six came before he got hurt in Week 12. We know what the deal is with J.K. dobbins. If you're getting him late in drafts. Awesome. Because you know that he can help you get off to a good start. Maybe he can be like he was last year where he carries you through the first. What do you think it was like third, maybe even half of the season as a starter for your fantasy team and then once the wheels come off you just move on to somebody else. That's still a good value when you're taking them close to or in the double digit rounds. We don't know what team he's going to play on. We don't know what type of situation he'll be in. This is not somebody that I'm ready to fall back in love with at this point.
- [31:43]
Adam Azer
So round six was too early for you there and then Jamie took Pickens 47th overall. Was that too early for you?
- [31:49]
Dave Richard
Again, another player who I There are just way too many questions and I think one of the questions is will he be any team's number one wide receiver? Makes sense for the Steelers to keep him because of his contract. But if he's too big of a pain in the tuchus, then I think that they're going to consider moving on from him and we don't know who his quarterback's going to be. If we go with my pie in the sky scenario of Rogers and Adams going to Pittsburgh, then that's absolutely going to negate what, what George Pickens can do. He averaged over seven targets per game last year and he averaged 11.7 PPR points per game last year. And I was a guy that overrated him. I've overrated him two years in a row and I, I love how he is as a downfield guy. He can, you know, make unbelievable catches on those, those sideline footballs and, and we saw him occasionally make great passes or great catches rather over the middle of the field. I don't know if he's got what it takes or if he'll be given the opportunity to be a number or to produce like a number one receiver for our purposes.
- [32:54]
Adam Azer
Heath Anthony Richardson went in round six. I think that's probably too early for everyone. The same manager then took Jordan Love three rounds later. Who is another guy that's on your do not draft list. But do you see any validity to drafting Richardson? Reaching for him? Not round six, but I don't know, round eight and then, you know, just playing under the depth of the position and having a really good backup.
- [33:20]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I think, I think the, the Richardson Love pairing makes a lot of sense. I would draft Richardson before I drafted Love. I really don't want to draft either one of them in the single digit rounds. But if you're going with that approach, maybe it makes sense to reach around on Richardson because he has shown us even last year at times the ability to, to score 30 plus fantasy points without even passing. That will. He's working on his mechanics this off season trying to become a better passer. And that works sometimes.
- [33:54]
Adam Azer
Yeah. Last five games he missed weeks nine and ten, you got benched. Last five games he was a roller coaster. 30 points against the Jets, 13 against the Lions. This is six point per passing touchdown. 25 at New England, 14 at Denver, 22 against Tennessee. I'm guessing that probably comes out to around 22 points. I don't know. But that would be like what Jared Goff averaged for the year. So that, that's with five rushing touchdowns and four passing touchdowns in those five games. There's so much upside there.
- [34:27]
Dave Richard
What round did I get Justin Herbert in? In our last mock your third Quarterback.
- [34:31]
Jamie Eisenberg
Your fourth?
- [34:32]
Dave Richard
Yeah, I think it was my, I don't think I took four, I just took three.
- [34:34]
Adam Azer
Round 13.
- [34:35]
Dave Richard
It was weird. Yeah, I, I'm, I'm taking Justin Herbert over Anthony Richardson in any round.
- [34:40]
Heath Cummings
I don't, I, I guess maybe if I was in like a 14 team super flex league, I would understand that, but I just don't see any upside for Justin Herbert.
- [34:53]
Dave Richard
I see tons of upside for Justin Herbert. We saw it last year. He finished with 29 and a half fantasy points per game in his last three. We saw 22.7 in his last 11. Once Jim Harbaugh realized that his old school ground and pound style wasn't really the best plan for his offense, when Justin Herbert is his quarterback, we saw much better things. And that's a receiving core that can get better. And Justin Herbert's a guy who can actually like complete more than 50 of his passes, which is something I'm not sure Anthony Richardson's going to do. I said this before. I don't remember if it was on Main Episode or FFT Express, but I, I think that we, I need to see Anthony Richardson. Like the reports have to be glowing about how he's throwing the football before I even consider him. There are too many other quarterbacks that have top 10 upside that you can draft late. Justin Herbert's one of them. Anthony Richardson isn't about to become one of these 30. He's not about to be what Lamar Jackson was unless he just completely changes his game as a thrower. And I'm gonna, I'm gonna have to be a believer in that.
- [36:02]
Adam Azer
Yeah, that's. But let's just keep that in mind. Everyone that he is working with a new coach who's trying to get his mechanics right. The same guy who worked with Josh Allen. And I think we can all agree if he does become a better passer, then we could have something pretty special here. So it's just something to remember going.
- [36:19]
Jamie Eisenberg
If they both hit their ceilings, Anthony Richardson ceilings higher than Justin Herbert's.
- [36:23]
Dave Richard
I think that's fair.
- [36:24]
Adam Azer
It's probably higher than almost every quarterback in Fantasy.
- [36:27]
Dave Richard
Honestly, I think that's fair too.
- [36:28]
Adam Azer
Yeah. All right. You know what else is fair? Taking a break. So we're gonna take a break and we've got. Oh Heath just picking on one of the best teams in football on his do not draft list. We'll tell you who it is after this on fft.
- [36:41]
Unknown
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- [38:00]
Adam Azer
So to recap, Jamie's do not draft list was James Conner, Mike Evans, Devonte Adams, Travis kelsey. Dave had DeAndre Swift, J.K. dobbins, George Pickens and Anthony Richardson. And Heath has Christian McCaffrey and three Detroit Lions, Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta and David Montgomery. And we'll take a look at where they went. McCaffrey was early in the second round. He was the third pick of round two. Jared Goff was the end of round nine. He was after Jordan Love. Another player that was on Heath's do not draft us. I didn't include him for this show. David Montgomery was in round four. So before a lot of those running backs that we talked about, like, like James Connor way before them, two rounds before Aaron Jones, James Connor, J.K. dobbins, Tyrone Tracy, DeAndre Swift. And then who was the last one? Oh, Sam Laporta. Sam laporta was the first pick of round four. Okay, so Heath, why don't you start with McCaffrey and then we'll tackle the Lions.
- [39:00]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, I mean, McCaffrey was the old running back that none of us were worried about going into last year. That turned out to be the one that we should have been worried about. He has multiple lower leg injuries. He's going to be 29 years old or may have already turned 29, but definitely will be at the start of next season. And I just. And I think he's still going to end up being a top 15 pick, most likely. I think you were calling him a great value because he fell into round two.
- [39:28]
Adam Azer
Yeah, it was.
- [39:29]
Heath Cummings
I, I think he may go in round one and I just, I do not want to take that type of chance on a guy that I've not heard any sort of report that, yeah, he's not going to have tendonitis in his Achilles anymore when he comes back. I think he's probably like the most likely outcome. The thing you should expect is that Christian McCaffrey is not Christian McCaffrey anymore.
- [39:49]
Adam Azer
Okay. When would you take is even around two pick for you?
- [39:53]
Heath Cummings
I, I round two three turn to be okay.
- [39:56]
Adam Azer
Anybody willing to take McCaffrey in round one other than me?
- [40:01]
Dave Richard
I can't.
- [40:02]
Jamie Eisenberg
I think as we discussed when we went over the mock draft, like when you get to the back end of round one and you're looking at the group that we saw this past draft, I may miss a name or two, but it was Nico Collins, Amara St. Brown, Malik Neighbors, Brian Thomas Jr. All four of those receivers, I think were like pick 10 or later. And then it was McCaffrey, Henry. I remember there's a third running back in the mix there if you feel like, okay, hn I'm okay with one of those receivers as my second pick. And I want to see if McAffrey has what we hope is left in the tank to be a top three caliber player number one overall player number one running back. Then you pull the trigger at that spot just to make sure you get him if you really want them. If not, you let it sort of play out the way Thomas did, which was he took Nico Collins, Thomas Schaefer. He took Nico Collins with the hope of taking another receiver there. McAffrey felt him and he kind of took the Robert Turbin theory of I'm just going to take the best running back who still has the ability to be elite. And it worked out well for Robert because he drafted Saquon and Derrick Henry, or at least he was high on Saquon and Derek currently in the league that we're in. You just have to have a belief that McCaffrey is going to be right. And so, yes, we haven't heard anything that he's done dealing with any issues. We haven't heard anything that he's not, you know, suffered a setback as well.
- [41:19]
Adam Azer
Yeah, what's the difference between him and Barkley. Barkley a year ago. I mean, you know, Barkley was very injury prone, you know, and had trouble staying healthy. If you're going to say age, it's fine. Might be the only thing. But like Aaron Jones and James Connor, they just had very healthy, productive seasons.
- [41:36]
Heath Cummings
Well, Barkley did play 14 games the year before, and he had played 16 the year before that. Like, he'd had some injuries. But I'm. I'm worried that Christian McCaffrey at his age just had these injuries last year, and tendonitis is not something that I think generally just goes away.
- [41:55]
Adam Azer
This will be one where I want to hear from one of the. Yeah, but we'll get. We'll get our medical guy on. All right, and we'll get Rudy on and we'll. Marty on and we'll. We'll hear what he has to say. I'd like to hear what all the, all the doctors have to say about McCaffrey, but. All right, Heath is out on McCaffrey Now. Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Sam Laporta, a trio of Lions. And you are, you know, based on what you expect their cost to be out.
- [42:20]
Heath Cummings
Right. You said that both laporta and Montgomery went in round four. Right. So that would be way out for me. I. I think first off, I am going to be a little bit concerned that a team that was an insane outlier last year in terms of total volume of play and total volume of points scored and just lost their offensive genius and replaced him with someone who was not like a protege, who was just there running the same thing. I think that team might take a big step back offensively. Not that I think the Lions are going to be bad, but there's a big, big. You could, you could be a good offense and lose a touchdown a game off what they did last year. And the other thing is, Sam laporta, his rookie year was fantastic and put him in that elite tier of being drafted in round three last year because he scored a bunch of touchdowns, not because he had an elite production in terms of efficiency. And then last year, he just didn't have as big of role in the offense with Jameson Williams there. And now we've got a new coordinator. I don't know how he's going to distribute all of these touches. And I think Jameer Gibbs is obviously quite a bit better than David Montgomery, and there's a good chance with a new offensive coordinator. They don't split the work up quite as much, especially with Montgomery now another year older.
- [43:43]
Adam Azer
Yeah, Montgomery, the first 13 games of the season. He got hurt in Week 15, the 14th game. Left early with an injury. He was a top 12 running back. He was 11th per game in full PPR. And he actually had more carries than Jameer Gibbs. He had two fewer catches than Jameer Gibbs. They had almost the same amount of touches. But you think it will be more Gibbsy because we're kind of hoping for a more gibsy split this year and it didn't really happen.
- [44:12]
Heath Cummings
I could just be hoping it into existence, but that's, that is what I'm hoping for. And I just think when you have a back as talent like they're both. I've been a big Dave Montgomery fan for four years. I, I was arguing for him back when he was in Chicago. I'm not saying he's bad at all. He's not. I think he's better than Jamal Williams. But at 28, when Gibbs is just entering his prime I, and a new offensive coordinator, I think it would make sense that you'd see a little bit of the work shift towards Gibbs.
- [44:41]
Dave Richard
32 of David Montgomery's PPR fantasy point total came from touchdowns, scored 12 of them. Last year he had one game with 15 plus PPR and no touchdowns. So if you're, if you're drafting even Montgomery, you're hoping that he still has that role of being an inside the 10 all the way up to the goal line. Touchdown score for the Lions and that's an easy role for him. I could see him succeeding in that role. It's all the other stuff that he does that makes me nervous that he could be marginalized a little bit more. And that accentuates Jameer Gibbs a little bit more. I, I, I personally don't love what they did at offensive coordinator either. And I, I kind of, I kind of smell what he's cooking here. And this is the Lion's team. It's kind of easy to look at him and say, okay, you know, different brain in charge. Now maybe they do take a step back.
- [45:30]
Adam Azer
And Goff, you know, if you just think, I think people probably feel like Jared Goff had his best season. Right? I mean he, I don't know that he can do much better than what he did. He averaged 23 fantasy points per game in 6 point per pass touchdown leagues, 22.9. Dave might have a slightly different number, but around 23 points per game. To put that in perspective, Dak Prescott has averaged more than 24 points per game four times and Goff didn't even do that. Last year and Golf threw 37 touchdowns. That's because he ran for 56 yards. So he had. Now it's also because he barely threw the ball right? I mean like he would threw like 31 times a game, 31.7 pass times per game. The previous two years he was 34.5, 35.6. But I don't know, it just feels like I don't know that golf can do any better. And he was QB 8 per game in 6 point per passion touchdown leagues, QB 7 per game in 4 point. Does anybody kind of feel that way? Like he peaked, he hit a ceiling last year.
- [46:28]
Jamie Eisenberg
Mostly. I mean, but I think also, you know, you, you started the show with your news and notes saying that they're going to run the offense through him, which is, you know, maybe taking a little bit more off of what David Montgomery per se does and giving a little bit more to what these elite pass catchers could be. I mean, you know, you have a first round town. Jameson Williams, you have what's proven to be an elite town. And Mara St. Brown, you have what could be an elite town, a tight end in Sam Laporta. And you still have. Which I think is kind of the saving grace to all of this is that they still have one of the best offensive lines. So you know, he's going to get a lot of protection. They may be in a lot more shootouts now because if the Vikings offense continues to develop, assuming that JJ McCarthy is, you know, picking up the mantle from Sam Darnold, which is strange to say, but you know, keeps that offense afloat and the packers take a little bit more step toward what they were in 2023 and get a little bit more explosive. And we have some shootouts there and obviously the Bears are trending in the right direction. Then we could have a really fun division depending on how the Lions defense looks, which is clearly what was a problem for them at the end of last season. So I think in terms of what these guys all have to offer, yes, you lose the brain trust and that's a scary proposition. They're still all relatively young, they're still all relatively in their primes. When you factor in the offensive line and golf and hopefully it just becomes, you know, a smooth transition. There is clearly cause for concern, but I think if you're overvaluing Jared Goff, you're probably not playing this game the right way because of what you said. I'm like, he's not going to give you some bonus production. He's going to have to be a 40 to 45 touchdown type of guy, which he hasn't done yet. Like you said, it just kind of like feels like he peaked. So 35 to 40 touchdowns is probably the, the best case scenario. Can he become a consistent. How many passing yards do you have this year?
- [48:08]
Adam Azer
Like 4, 600, right.
- [48:10]
Jamie Eisenberg
So can he take the, the next step? I don't think so. I think this is kind of like what he is, you know, so four, 500 yards, 35 touchdowns, that's a great settle for quarterback. It's not someone that you go out and, you know, say I have to go and build my fantasy team around Jared Goff. He's going to win you fantasy championships because 23 points per game with an elite roster is great, but he's not going to be a Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen type of guy. And I don't think he's going to morph into that all of a sudden because of a change in system.
- [48:36]
Adam Azer
Third lowest adot in the NFL. Jared Goff, that was a little bit of a change for him, but also with the third lowest a dot he had the second most touchdown passes, actually the most touchdown passes of 50 or more yards, which is pretty surprising. But it kind of, you go back and you watch the 50 plus yard touchdown passes, you see the talent, right, of Jameson Williams, mostly Jameson Williams. Fun stat. If you want to look at, go go to 30 or more touchdowns of 30 or more yards and just the Jameson Williams plays. Jameson Williams gave Jared Goff an extra, I think 2.2 fantasy points per game on his five catches, five touchdown catches of 30 or more yards. So that's part of the appeal of golf is like he's got these playmakers around him, as Jamie was saying. And Laporta can make big plays for a tight end and St. Brown can get going too.
- [49:25]
Jamie Eisenberg
So I think just in the case of La Porta, if you look at what he started to do in the second half of the season, I think it was kind of a little right before Thanksgiving to the end of the year. Like that was the guy that we were drafting at the start of the season. That was the guy that had his rookie dominant campaign, you know, so can he pick up from that going into year two? Now part of that was Montgomery getting hurt. Part of that was I think right around the time Jameson Williams had the two game suspension too. So factor that into the equation. But I just think if you're taking Sam Laporte around four in the draft that we did, you're taking him ahead of George Kittle, which was a mistake. Like those things just don't feel like they should be happening. But if you're getting him round six still, I still think he's got top five upset.
- [50:05]
Adam Azer
Okay, cool. That's it for our for our list here. Do not draft what else we got.
- [50:15]
Dave Richard
Guys, we're definitely sticking with that all the way through August, right?
- [50:19]
Adam Azer
Yeah.
- [50:19]
Dave Richard
No way we're changing these lists.
- [50:22]
Adam Azer
Exactly. Yeah. All right, so what do we have coming up this week? We've got a free agency preview on Thursday and then tomorrow is the best and worst second half performers. So I remember that's a fun show. Kind of look at some of the late season trends and whether or not we think they're gonna hold up going into 2025. Thanks so much for watching. Listening everybody. Stay tuned for FFT Express after this and we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today.
- [51:01]
Unknown
Paramount Podcasts.
- [51:08]
Heath Cummings
Hey, I'm Heath Cummings, host of Fantasy Football Today Dynasty, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. Whether you're looking to dominate your Dynasty league or take your startup team to the top, we've got you covered. Want to make the right move to turn your roster into a championship contender? Are you aiming to find that next breakout rookie who will be your league's game changer? FFT Dynasty is here to give you the edge. This offseason will provide you with startup mock drafts to guide you through building your perfect team and dive deep into the 2025 NFL Draft class to help you identify the next hidden gem that could propel you to fantasy football glory. You will hit hear from industry pros and familiar voices like Jamie Eisenberg, Dave Richard and Adam Azer from fft. Fantasy Football Today Dynasty is available for free every Tuesday and Friday. Download and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or anywhere Podcasts are found.