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Dynasty Tiers: Position-by-Position Ranking Breakdown! (06/10 Dynasty Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:09:15
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- [00:00]
Heath Cummings
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- [00:33]
Theo Griminger
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Heath Cummings
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- [00:47]
Theo Griminger
This summer, Pluto TV is exploding with thousands of free movies.
- [00:51]
Harry
Stream hits like Good Burger, Four Brothers.
- [00:54]
Theo Griminger
The Wood Paid in Full and Beverly Hills Cop. All for summer of cinema on Pluto tv. Stream now pay.
- [01:01]
Harry
Never get ready to laugh until it hurts. You're gonna love this. Novocaine is now streaming on Paramount.
- [01:11]
Matt Norlander
I've got this condition. I don't feel pain.
- [01:13]
Theo Griminger
You're a superhero.
- [01:14]
Harry
Yeah, it's an adrenaline rush of fun.
- [01:17]
Theo Griminger
Whoa. This is the best.
- [01:18]
Harry
And a bloody good time.
- [01:20]
Theo Griminger
Almost forgot the best part.
- [01:22]
Harry
It's the first great action comedy of the year.
- [01:25]
Theo Griminger
Let the magic happen.
- [01:26]
Harry
That's good.
- [01:27]
Frank Stampfl
Looking forward to it.
- [01:28]
Harry
Novocain. Rated R. Now streaming on Paramount + welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, he Cummings, joined by my good friend and many time guest Theo Griminger. Theo, it's always great to have you here. I know everybody already knows where to find you, but I'd like to give you a chance at the top of the show. Just talk about what you've been doing and where they can find your work.
- [01:57]
Theo Griminger
Yeah, you can find all my work over at Fantasy Points. I also do some articles for the athletic, but almost all of it's over at Fantasy Points. Dynasty Life Heath has been on several times. My Dynasty show over at Fantasy Points and fantasy points. YouTube fantasy football today. I'm dropping several episodes a week and then School of Scott with Scott Barrett. Today's guest is actually Jacob Gibbs. Recording today with Jacob Gibbs. So it's back to back CBS content creators for me. But everything over at Fantasy Points you can find my Dynasty rankings, my redraft rankings, all of my articles. Fantasy Points. That's. That's where you can find me.
- [02:34]
Harry
Maybe you guys can can answer a question that I asked Jacob the last time he was on this show. I said, I love all this information about these quarterbacks and their accuracy on a variety of types of throws and a variety of types of circumstances. I said, Jacob, can you, can next time you come on, can you have some indication of how sticky this is? I want to know if these guys that were good at these certain things were good at these things last year or if it's just kind of like, you know, Patrick Mahomes had a bad year in terms of accuracy.
- [03:04]
Theo Griminger
Yeah, I mean for, I think, I think a lot of those. When a quarterback shows you what a positive outcome could look like, we'll keep chasing those sort of returns. Heath. Like, like guys will regress because guys sometimes, unfortunately balls get tipped. You throw more, you throw more interceptions than touchdowns. But when guys show you elite arm strength, elite accuracy, you choose to believe them. And history can sort of repeat itself. So yeah, I love all the Jacob Gibbs stuff, but I will say recording with him and Scott Barrett on the same show and I was like, you know, let's talk about the 12 most important stats to know for this season. And I basically gave myself a homework assignment because these guys were so detail oriented in their analytical takes. Jacob is coming out with like so many amazing stats. So last night I actually put so much work into it. So big shout out to both of those guys. But super, super sharp guest like yourself. Yeah, I'm looking forward to it.
- [03:59]
Harry
Should be a good time. Listen. We generally start our show with three questions for our guests. I've asked Theo a lot of questions in the past. I'm gonna ask him a lot of questions in the next hour. We have a jam packed show talking about dynasty tiers and so we're just going to jump right into them. I'll tell you. We're going to talk about the top. My top three tiers at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end, in that order. I am publishing those tiers this week. Quarterback went up yesterday, Running backs going up today. They'll all be up by the end of the week. Go to CBS fantasy, cbs sports.com fantasy Check out those tiers in full. I've got nine or 10 tiers per position. One. We're just going to talk about the top guys. I have some questions for Theo after I reveal some of these tiers. But I'm also giving him a special power. He's been here on the show enough times that he is allowed. When I unveil a tear before I ask my question, just Say stop because Theo's noticed something in the tears that he wants to ask me about. You've got a little power, Theo. Most power power I've ever given anyone else on this show. We'll see how it goes. Let's start at the quarterback position and I don't think we're going to have any dispute over this one. Tier 1 Jaden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen. I've said it before already this offseason. I don't really care what order you want to rank those three guys in. Maybe it depends on where your team's at right now or maybe it depends on just who your personal preference is. But I feel pretty strongly whether it's 4 point per pass touchdown or 6 point per pass touchdown. Those are my top three quarterbacks in the tiers. Should these theob the top three picks in all super flex startups?
- [05:43]
Theo Griminger
Yes, I think so. I think that these three guys give you a really an elite edge when you're doing a startup draft. And they all have that incredible rushing upside. With Allen and Lamar Jackson, we have a massive sample size of production and with Jaden Daniels, there's just so much to like. The second most fantasy points ever scored by a rookie quarterback last year was a top five scorer and that was with a middling offensive line. A lack of a wide receiver too. Washington has addressed everything this offseason, so I absolutely put Jaden Daniels up there. If you want to split hairs and you want to let age be the guide for you, then Jaden Daniels can be the 101 in your super flex startups. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Nothing really needs to be said. Those guys are absolutely fantasy football weapons of mass destruction.
- [06:32]
Harry
I, I'm going to ask one more question about these, about those two specifically, and I may have asked you before, I've asked a lot of people on this show, but we're, we're going into this season. When we get to Week 1, Lamar is going to be 28. Allen's going to be 29. For quarterbacks in general, that age does not concern us at all. They probably still have a longer Runway than any running back does, but a lot of their production comes in the same way that running back production does with their legs. Do you look at their age and maybe specifically starting next year when one of them turns 30, as any more troublesome as it might be than it might be for a Joe Burrow or a Patrick Mahomes? Or do you just think these guys are going to play the next 10.
- [07:13]
Theo Griminger
Years like they have it's really hard for us to project anybody 10 years down the line. I think with our quarterbacks in Dynasty, we can legitimately make a five year bet with these guys based on just how good they are, their contract insulation, the fact that they're absolute superstars where if something happened to happen in Buffalo or Baltimore there would be 15 teams ready to trade the farm for them. But really when it comes to these two guys, I don't worry about it. I think they're also both very high IQ football players. These guys are not really taking massive hits continually. Heath like we've seen Lamar Jackson miss some time in years past, but these guys are very efficient with their, with, with their runs. I don't really worry at all. And like you said 28 and 29, these guys are going to be really good right up until age 35.
- [08:01]
Harry
Excellent. We'll, we'll move to tier two at the quarterback position and we were, we are starting I will say the first two tiers with about the least controversial takes that I have because my tier two Joe Burrow, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes. It seems like I look at adp, I look at any rankings list, these six quarterbacks are the top six. The top three is almost always the same. The next threes almost always the same. Would you say that Burrow, Herz and Mahomes are closer to tier, those tier one guys or closer to the guys in tier three?
- [08:33]
Theo Griminger
I think that they're closer to the tier one guys, especially when it comes to Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. Mahomes is sort of his own thing because he's been just so good. He's one of the most talented players, if not the best quarterback of all time. I think he's in that discussion. But, but his career trajectory has become a little bit more like Tom Brady where his best attribute is winning football games, not necessarily putting up incredible fantasy football numbers. Now that being said, they could be way more wide receiver centric this year. They're certainly going to be younger with the weapons that Mahomes has. So having Mahomes at QB6 where, where you have them and where I have them, it makes you a little bit uncomfortable because it feels like if, if things didn't go his way in terms of like the game flow and Kansas City defense, you could see another just unbelievable Patrick Mahomes season. You're like why did we let him go as QB6 in in the Dynasty startup? But I think when it comes to Joe Burrow, it's everything set up for him to sort of give you a peak. Peyton Manning like season at some point in the near future. 50 touchdown passes for him I think is very much in a realistic possibility this year. And Jalen Hurts has been one of the most efficient runners of the football we've ever seen. Certainly the tush push has has benefited him. But just in terms of rushing yards per game, Jalen Hurts is one of the best we've ever seen. This is also a player that is a little bit younger like Jalen hurts, I believe. 26 years old. 26 years old for Jalen Hurts. So he's three years younger than like a Josh Allen, two years younger than a Lamar Jackson. And the offensive ecosystem around him, even though the passing volume is is not quite there. We really believe in AJ Brown, we believe in Devonta Smith and certainly playing next to Saquon Barkley makes him just an absolutely lethal threat. So I think those guys are appropriately priced. If you wanted to have Mahomes sort of in his own little bubble as the QB6, I think I'm okay doing that. It's sort of sacrilege in fantasy football to push him below those guys. But at the end of the day it's about fantasy points, it's about scoring fantasy points. And Mahomes just has not been putting up those type of weekly spike weeks really over the last two seasons.
- [10:49]
Harry
I would be more okay with dropping Mahomes to a third tier in four point for passing touchdown leagues in the six. I think you have to leave them here. Let's just jump into my monstrous tier three. Only three quarterbacks in the first two tiers. That's because I feel some certainty about those guys. After that we have Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Bo Nix, Justin Herbert, Drake May, C.J. stroud and Cam Ward. Now there's one guy I think if you've listened to me talk about the quarterback position in Dynasty the last few months, you know I'm higher on than just about everybody else that is not in this tier right now. That's Justin Fields. That's because I made a specific effort with this set of tiers to focus on super flex leagues. And Fields lack of a floor beyond this year knocks him out of that tier. For me. If I was a 1 QB tiering then he would definitely be in this tier 3 group as well. But what these guys have in common and have as an advantage over Justin Fields is they're all relatively young, 27 or younger at the start of the season I expect all of them to be the starters for their team for multiple years in the future and most of them except for Williams, May and Ward, I feel pretty good about them being high end QB2s for that stretch. Williams, May and Ward, the youth, the upside, the potentials, doing a little bit more work to get them into this tier. But I also recognize my tier 3 is bigger than most tiers I see out there. Most, most people have like a four or five guys from this group that they definitely like better than the rest. So is there is. Are there a couple of guys who you think are your clear favorites or a couple of guys who you think just don't belong in this tier?
- [12:37]
Theo Griminger
Well, I think that the second year quarterbacks like Caleb Williams, Bo Nicks, Drake May, they're certainly steaming up in terms of dynasty startup value. We're seeing a lot of people sort of backing a massive breakout for Caleb Williams. We saw a huge FFPC dynasty league where he went ahead of Momes. Even so, I think people are really trusting in Ben Johnson, trusting in the profile and giving Caleb Williams sort of a pass for what we saw during his rookie season. I think Bo Nick's a little bit underrated, Heath, to be honest with you. Like Bo Nix is a guy that was unbelievable last year. Really, really tight with the football, didn't throw interceptions, had an unbelievable completion percentage. 29 touchdown passes set a record for the Denver Broncos. Like what he did for Denver was not quite what Jaden Daniels did for Washington, but it was sort of the, the Jaden Daniels light version. And Bo Nick's heading into year two for me. He's been sort of the, the mispriced player this off season. I was able to get him in like the early third round of a Super Flex startup. I thought that was tremendous value and I think he could be sort of the cheat code player. Also had over 400 rushing yards, so that could take another step forward. So Bo Nicks, I think I'm really high on all those guys. Justin Herbert's one where he's so talented. It's almost like the Patrick Mahomes light version here where the offense is not necessarily conducive for him putting up massive spike weeks. They want to run the ball. They have one elite pass catcher right now. Maybe Trey Harris gets there, but they have. They're going to concentrate a lot of the targets to one pass catcher in lad McConkey. But Justin Herbert is just so good and he's also 27 years old. So I think those guys sort of are in their own mini tier. I'll throw out. If you're going as wide as you are here, consider J.J. mcCarthy because I think if J.J. mcCarthy were a prospect in this 2025 draft class, he, he would have been really competing with Cam Ward for that number one overall pick has the mobility and when we talk about the offensive ecosystem besides Caleb Williams, like, like we all like kind of gushed over Caleb Williams Year 1 Offensive ecosystem and maybe we're a little like a year ahead but in terms of the weapons he had around him. But JJ McCarthy I would argue is in the best possible situation that we've ever seen a first year quarterback in. He's got Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hawkinson the offensive line picked up two starters this offseason. They have a dual, dual threat running back with Jordan Mason joining Aaron Jones and it's Kevin oconnell who we really trust as a play caller. So I would sort of push JJ McCarthy into that big, big tier you have if you're going to keep it that wide. Also exceedingly young prospect as well.
- [15:27]
Harry
Yeah, I think the youth and the lack of the experience is the only thing maybe and Cam Ward doesn't have it either. So McCarthy certainly could join that tier maybe even with a good training camp, definitely with a good week or two to start the season. Let's take our first break and then we'll get into my top three running back tears.
- [15:46]
Frank Stampfl
Just because the college basketball season is over does not mean the fun has to stop. And it will not stop. On the Ion College Basketball Podcast I'm Matt Norlander and every week me and Gary Parish will continue throughout the off season to give you multiple shows weekly that dive into the stories, the interesting trends, what you need to know, portal comings and goings, the new coaches in new spots and of course as we move into the NBA draft season, we'll give you deep dives on the players to know and give you mock drafts as so continue to subscribe and listen because we still got the goods and really, really appreciate all you've done to help build out this podcast over the years. Subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts or if you want to watch us, we'd love that as well. You can subscribe to the ION College Basketball Podcast on CBS Sports College Basketball on YouTube now.
- [16:32]
Matt Norlander
Dominique, your fantasy baseball league with Fantasy Baseball Today, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. Join Scott White, Chris Towers and me, Frank Stampfl every weekday as we recap every player from every game. We'll get you the latest news, waiver wire ads and drops trades to make prospect promotions and everything else you need to take down your league. Make sure to download and follow on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere else podcasts are found.
- [17:02]
Harry
I kind of feel the same way about tier one at the running back position that I do about Tier 1 at the quarterback position. It's almost like what do we say about these guys? Everybody agrees these are the top four running backs in Dynasty. Maybe Theo doesn't agree. We'll find out. Bijan Robinson, Ashton Genti, Jameer Gibbs, Devon Achan. That's my tier one at the running back position. You have anything interesting to say or you think I'm wrong here?
- [17:25]
Theo Griminger
No, I mean I think that the two of us, I think that the only thing that would maybe differ from some other analysts is our infatuation and confidence level in Devon Achan, sort of withstanding his early career success. There's always going to be people wanting to sort of push Achan out of this truly elite tier despite him taking a big step forward last year with his pass catching ability. Like Achan, I have very, very high up in my Redraft rankings. But Heath, the difference is between him and those other three guys is those other three guys are locks to go inside of the first round in every single format right now in Redraft and you're able to get a Chan inside of round two on underdog, on ffpc sometimes in nffc. So the, the, like the, the general consensus is Achan is not going to be quite as good as those guys this year. Doesn't have necessarily the, the ceiling outcome. But when Tuatanga Valoa was healthy last year, you're talking about a guy who averaged over 22 points a game would have potentially threatened for the RB1 overall if, if Tua would have played the entire season. So I'm completely with you on Achan being there. I think that would be the only thing where people might say hold on guys, let's have a Chan right behind those guys.
- [18:40]
Harry
Yeah, and I actually and we'll talk more about Redraft as the season goes on, but I actually have Achan projected ahead of Gibbs this year and Adam Azer asked me on our last regular FFT podcast, who's your favorite mid to late round first. First round pick. And I said hn he said well looking at adp you could have him in the middle of round two. I said well that'd be fantastic but I do think he's worth a first round pick. Just if just about any running back is it would be him. Let's Quickly go to tier two. I wrote about these guys today. Saquon, Barkley, Kyron Williams.
- [19:13]
Theo Griminger
I'll use my, I'll use my power here and I'll go pause. Yes, I think for, for like for Dynasty. A lot of times Dynasty is played in Windows where guys are in sort of a win now mode. I think Saquon is really a two year bet here because the, the way his contract is set up, the way Philadelphia is set up with Nick Sirianni now having insulation after winning the super bowl, like the Sirianni is going to move on from Philly, that ship is sailed. So really I think Saquon can almost be in his own little mini tier if the guy's sort of with him in this tier. I view Saquon as a better bet for this season and I view him as almost more insulated for next season. When it comes to Kyron, the profile doesn't necessarily stand up to the amount of volume that he's withstood. Also the fumbling issues last year, a little bit more back putting pressure on him this year with Jarquez Hunter, with Bree hall, who knows where he's playing his football in 2026. That could be a good thing or a bad thing. Jonathan Taylor doesn't catch passes and we're going to probably have a new quarterback for him this year and a new quarterback for him next year. Chase Brown, the profile. I love Chase Brown. I have him 20th in my redraft rankings. But the profile doesn't hold up when we're making a long term bet. Day 3 Draft capital. Not necessarily the, the largest back out there and had a ton of volume last year. And then Bucky Irving, I love Bucky Irving but Bucky Irving's peak outcome season this year is not near what Saquon is. So I almost view Saquon as a his own little mini tier. I have him at the RB5 and then I would argue that a couple of your. You haven't even revealed it to the listening audience. Yeah, I can wait for you to reveal your tier three guys before we sort of re rank them. But from the get go here I would sort of have Saquon in his own little mini tier. And Heath, from a game theory perspective, when you're drafting Saquon in a Dynasty startup, you're sort of making a, a short term window bet. I mean he's a super powered human in the, in the like the, the realm of like a Derrick Henry. But again, once we start getting to the 28, 29 Father Time's undefeated even with Saquon. So Saquon also the volume last year was just insane. The amount of touches he had over the last two seasons, 666 touches over the last two seasons. And that doesn't even include the fantasy playoffs where he was an absolute workhorse for Philly. So Saquon's you really have to be realistic and make a two year bet on him. But because he's a guy that could average 25 points per game, 20 points per game, somewhere in that range this year, I almost put him in his own little mini tier because it's a better short term bet and he's just a safer, a safer selection for me than the other younger backs surrounding him.
- [21:58]
Harry
Yeah. And I think most of the time, especially at the tops of my tiers, and we've talked about this before, do you want to look at like specific types of players and fits or do you just want to look at dynasty value and where they land in your dynasty value? I generally try to do the latter. Although when you get later in the tiers, I might just put five old running backs who were only good this year in the same tier. What you could have maybe just read my article that I wrote this morning that hasn't published yet. So I know you didn't, but all the things you just said was what I said about this tier. It's a, it's a, it's for me, it's six guys that really would not surprise me if they finish top six. Saquan, it wouldn't surprise me if he finishes top one this year. And six guys that for a variety of reasons have a lot of concerns. Saquan's it's the workload and the age. You get three day three running backs here and Kyron Williams and Chase Brown and Bucky Irving that at their age and what they've produced should be no doubt about it, top 10 dynasty running backs. But because they don't have second contracts because of what their initial draft capital is, people question them a little more. And what I found was interesting was I, I you saw this. I ran some Twitter polls this morning just to get the perception of other people based on my values. And the thing that I found which was unsurprising, nobody likes Kyron Williams as much as I do. I think he's fourth in PPR fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. And every time they draft a day two or day three running back, we're going to hear about how that guy's going to take touches away from Kyron Williams, even though the only thing Sean McVeigh's ever shown is that he'd really just like to give the ball to Kyron Williams over and over and over again. So I, I understand that concern. I, I understand the concern with Hull. I actually think Taylor's probably the safest of this group for the next two years besides Barkley, but his upside could be limited by that lack of pass catching. It won't matter too much if he runs for 1500 yards and scores 15 touchdowns. But let's just jump into the tier three rookie running backs, because I've got three running rookies in tier three with Ken Walker, so Ken Walker, Travion Henderson, Omarion Hampton, and Quinch on Judkins. Theo's saying he'd rank at least a couple of these guys ahead of several of the guys in tier 2. Twitter would definitely rank Hampton, I think, above everyone in this tier besides Saquon and Bucky Irving. Bucky Irving still has a lot of backers, unlike Kyron Williams, even though I'm not sure that Bucky Irving's peak performance is as good as what Kyron Williams has done the last two years. But that's, that's another point for another day. Henderson, Hampton, Walker and Judkins. You'd put both Henderson and Hampton ahead of several guys in Tier two.
- [24:48]
Theo Griminger
So I would put Hampton right up there behind Saquon Barkley. I, I am head over heels for Hampton. You're talking about a first round pedigree. You're talking about him landing on a team with a very good offensive line, an elite talent at quarterback, and a team that really, really wants to run. Last year with J.K. dobbins and Gus Edwards and Kamani Vidal, they were still like the 11th most run, run heavy team in football in terms of rush attempts. Now they've significantly upgraded the position. I understand the Najee Harris fears out there. Naji's been a guy that's been on Dynasty rosters forever and he's had a thousand rushing yards every season as a pro, but when it comes down to it, they were almost like separate decisions by the franchise. It wasn't like, I don't think they went into it saying, we're going to sign Naji Harris and we're also going to draft Omari and Hampton. I think Hampton sort of fell in their laps during the NFL draft and they made the best possible decision. And that's not really a good thing for Najee. I just think Hampton has everything to him where you're, you're able to get potentially elite production and also be able to get your dynasty roster a lot younger. I think Hampton just the sky is the limit. He's an absolute workhorse. He's good enough as a receiver and I think when you compare him to like a Jonathan Taylor, the offensive ecosystem around him is just going to be better and you're able to kind of reset the clock. So I'm taking Hampton ahead of those guys. I'm also putting Travion Henderson right up there where I'm taking Henderson sort of ahead of a number of guys in your in your tier 2. Henderson just screams fantasy football friendly. It's teams trying to chase the Jameer Gibbs like outcome and when it comes to Henderson I think he catch a ton of passes. He's also a home run hitter running back who gets to play next to one of the most mobile quarterbacks in football. So Henderson can give you huge big playability and weekly sustainable target volume. Where I think like the upside outcomes for Travion Henderson are that he like a year from now we're drafting him as a top five running back in startups. I think that's the sort of ceiling he has. I also think that there's a just because of the lack of offensive skill position talent in New England I think Henderson's going to get a real opportunity in year one to gain some significant dynasty value. So like I had this discussion with some very smart people over at Fantasy Points, Ryan Heath, who's been on your show, Scott Barrett, when we were we did a huge dynasty rankings update for our overall rankings in Single QB and in Super Flex and I've been really pounding the table for Travion Henderson over Bucky Irving and it's an uncomfortable one. And for my dynasty rosters I have a ton of exposure to Bucky Irving. So I, I really hope that the, the the Polars are correct here Heath. But at the end of the day I'm taking the upside of Travion Henderson. Just the sheer athleticism for him the draft capital. I just think he's a better three year bet than Bucky despite Bucky being an awesome, awesome talent. And Bucky again for me is still a top 10 running back in Dynasty so it's sort of splitting hairs but I have those guys side by side in my dynasty rankings so really really enthusiastic about those guys. Judkins for me probably is is behind Henderson and behind Hampton. I think Judkins is a really really good talent. But we have huge quarterback issues in Cleveland this year. Last year they were the most pass happy team in the NFL, which is sort of why they drafted Quintean Judkins. I think they want to change their DNA. They've been sort of searching for this Nick Chubb like replacement. But I don't necessarily like the fact that this is going to be a potentially slower start to his career than with the other two rookies you also have. I really didn't like the Dylan Sampson draft pick and I know a lot of people sort of laugh at that. But yeah, I know you liked him. I liked him. And Cleveland making that fourth round bet on Sampson sort of says to me that they look back at what they were good at historically over the last few years that Nick Chubb Kareem Hunt season, it seems like they're sort of chasing that. And I think Samson's going to be a little bit of a thorn in quinch on Judkins side where you have a young player who we believe in like Judkins checks off so many boxes. He's super athletic as he proved to the combine. Unbelievably productive player in the sec, in the Big Ten, playing big boy football every single Saturday. And he brought it and he showed he could also thrive in a committee backfield next to a Travon Henderson. So there's a lot of reasons for me to be wrong on this. I just think Sampson's going to be a little more annoying. I think this could end up being a 65, 35, 60, 40 type annoying split where Judkins, you don't get off to the fast start and then you have to deal with him in a somewhat committee role with another young running back. So I just don't necessarily love that situation for him, but I think just based on the talent, the draft capital, you can put him up next to like the, the Breeze halls, the Chase Browns in that sort of tier as well. But push comes to shoves, Christian Judkins is behind Travan Henderson for me and certainly certainly behind Hampton.
- [30:00]
Harry
So we're going to move to wide receiver in just a second. But there's one more running back that I want to at least mention because I know a lot of people are RJ Harvey truthers and are disappointed not to see him in the top three tiers. Certainly disappointed to see him behind Judkins for me. So do you think RJ Harvey should be in this tier also or am I right to have him a tier lower?
- [30:20]
Theo Griminger
No, I think he should be right there. I think when you're talking about guys like Quinn, Sean Judkins guys like Kenneth Walker in my, in our, excuse me, in our overall rankings over at Fantasy Points. We've been sort of ahead of the curve on RJ Harvey throughout the draft process. We thought he was going to be a second round pick sort of from the Senior bowl on we turned out to be correct on that. We didn't necessarily know he was going to land in the nuts landing spot. So he's an interesting prospect. He's 24 years old, which some people don't necessarily like. But again we're, we're making these two year bets, three year bets. At the running back position we have RJ Harvey sort of back to back with Breeze hall and Jonathan Taylor. So we have him very, very highly ranked. I personally would, would probably prefer, you know, him and Taylor. It's kind of splitting hairs for me, Heath, because again, Harvey is in a really good offense. I'm singing the praises of Bo Nix. So I do think you should have RJ Harvey at least in that third tier. Should not be completely left out of this conversation.
- [31:20]
Harry
Let's move on to the wide receiver position and my favorite thing is a one man tier and for me right now Jamar Chase is a one man tier at wide receiver one. Now I've talked about this a lot. We've gone back and forth in my dynasty rankings over the last three years between Chase and Jefferson as wide receiver one overall. A year ago Jefferson was my wide receiver one in the same tier with Chase. Do you agree with me that what we saw from Chase last year and the current situation of all these guys, Chase has kind of moved into a tier of his own at the wide receiver position?
- [31:55]
Theo Griminger
I would say it's sort of yes and no because Chase would be our big bet to be first of all, he's my 101 this year in redraft, so I have him ahead of everybody. We haven't seen a repeat wide receiver 1 overall in quite some time. Have to really go back to like the Antonio Brown days to kind of find that. But at the end of the day, Cooper cup probably would have got there. I mean but probably Justin Jefferson was nipping at his heels that year. But when it comes to Jamar Chase, I think he's just fantastic. And he's only 25 years old and again I'm waxing poetic about Joe Burrow and how he's going to pass for 50 touchdowns. A good portion of those are going to go Chase. I still think you've got to push Justin Jefferson right next to him in that super super, super elite tier. Jefferson is the same age. Justin Jefferson is in a very good offensive ecosystem and Jefferson also has a wide receiver one overall to his name so I would probably push him up. I think those two guys are sort of in their own little mini tier and I know like in, in super flex startups both of those guys are in consideration like right after you have the either you know really right before or right after you talk about those big three quarterbacks, depending on how you want to build your team. I think like the Chase and Jefferson for me are ahead clearly to like a CD Lamb, Malik, neighbors, the other wide receivers who I'm really, really really high on. So I think Jefferson just based on where I would select him in a super Flex startup belongs up there with Jamar Chase in that truly elite tier.
- [33:27]
Harry
I like to reference recent DLF ADP because they do a good job of running that every month. And right now this shows Chase at the fourth pick in a super flex league. So right after that tier one of quarterbacks right before Hertzboro or Mahomes and then Jefferson just a couple picks later you got Burrow and Hertz and then Jefferson at pick seven. Let's get to Jefferson and Tier 2 at the wide receiver position. This is a little bit bigger tier. Justin Jefferson, Malik neighbors C.D. lamb, Pukinakua, Brian Thomas Jr. Amunra St. Brown and Nico Collins round out tier two. For me I'm gonna, I don't normally I just talk about, listen, this is the tier, don't worry about the order but I do have both Neighbors and Thomas ahead of Amun Ra and Nico Collins. Is it too soon to do that after their rookie years?
- [34:17]
Theo Griminger
No, I don't think it's too soon. I think that it's appropriate to do that. Almond Ross St. Brown Last year we saw the targets go down by about 20 targets. He was really, really boosted by the fact that he had 12 touchdown catches but the air yards went down. A lot of metrics there that were went down a little bit For Almond Ross St. Brown, he was back to back seasons of finishing as the wide receiver 4 overall in fantasy points per game at the wide receiver position but wide receiver scoring was down so I'm on raw. We also find out that there was a little bit of knee cleanup. There was a procedure in the knee and are we not supposed to care about that at all? Because I care about it and at the end of the day I really give a big shout out to the Detroit Lions beat reporters for letting us know about that before there was maybe 10,000 best ball drafts. We find that out in June in the information age. So come on guys, let's get with it. But I don't like that. I also don't like that Almond Ross St. Brown has a new offensive coordinator this year. Ben Johnson and Amon Ross St. Brown were just a perfect, perfect pairing. The way Ben Johnson utilized the slot receiver was truly elite. So for me, if I'm in a dynasty league and you offer me Aman Ross St. Brown for Malik Neighbors, I'm turning that down all day long. So I think you're appropriate where you have them. Brian Thomas Jr. Is the interesting one because BTJ is unbelievable and the two of us podcasted multiple times last season sort of talking about just how highly we can push BTJ up. Right now he's got Travis Hunter and I know Travis Hunter has like and I think where you have BTJ is appropriate. This is a guy that is Josh Gordon esque in the peak outcome on the field And Brian Thomas Jr. Is a guy who if everything goes right, we'll be right in the mix for wide receiver one overall this year. But then you have the Travis Hunter situation where people say, you know this is going to be BTJ as the Jamar Chase and Travis Hunter as the T. Higgins. They're going to coexist. But Travis Hunter takes a step back. Number two overall pick. Wide receivers don't usually take a step back. So I think that there is a non zero chance that a year from now Travis Hunter is able to flip the dynasty values with btj. And I know a lot of people say Theo, that's stupid but I think that that's a possibility just because Travis Hunter there's some unknown upside. A guy that had to attend both defensive and offensive meetings at Colorado, had to play every single snap and now has a situation where I realized today they at minicamp they're having doing a couple defensive drills but at at rookie OTAs they had him doing nothing but offense. If Travis Hunter plays 90% on offense, 10% on defense, Travis Hunter might be really really good. Now I'd still put that at like a 20 chance, 25 chance. BTJ is just truly elite and it's going to be hard for Hunter to overcome them. But when you look at Everybody in Tier 1 and Tier 2, no one has as much of a threat to them as Travis Hunter is to Brian Thomas Jr. That's my only trepidation with sort of a BTJ right now. And I hope I'm wrong about this because I have an absolute fortune investing in BTJ on my dynasty rosters and I made a habit of trying to trade and buy high for him last year, so I have a serious investment. But Travis Hunter is also a guy that we've pushed way, way up in our rankings at fantasy points in our single QB rankings. I'm gonna pull this up so I don't say it incorrectly. In our single QB rankings we have BTJ at 10 overall, right ahead of Amman, Ross, St. Brown and ahead of Nico Collins. But we have Travis Hunter at 17 overall and he's going side by side with guys like Lad Monkey and Saquan Barkley. So we have both of those guys inside of our top 17 overall in our non Super Flex PPR ranking. So we're really high on Travis Hunter and his potential upside outcome. Some really smart people at fantasy points, Ryan Heath, Graham Barfield, like a couple guys really love Hunter's potential here.
- [38:24]
Harry
You know that's a great transition into Tier 3 because if, if they do flip flop, neither one of them is going to have to move very much. Travis Hunter is in tier three for me with Jackson Smith and Jigva, Marvin Harrison Jr lad McConkey, Drake London and the unicorn AJ Brown. He's been a bit of a unicorn just in the way that he plays football as a wide receiver in the first place. But he's also the only wide receiver over 276 in my top 24 dynasty wide receivers. He'll be 28 at the start of the 2025 season. Does that make him I I know he's not as risky as Travis Hunter because of the defensive concerns and the fact we've never, never seen him play. But does his age make him one of the riskier top 15 wide receivers?
- [39:07]
Theo Griminger
I think we're splitting hairs like 27 years old is not 30 years old. AJ Brown is unbelievable in terms of the efficiency and his usage is is off the charts it target share, air yard share, first read rate. He's clearly Jalen Hurts preferred option. He's a guy that scored a ton of touchdowns down the stretch, had a touchdown catch in the NFC championship game, touchdown catch in the Super Bowl. A.J. brown is a stud, but he is no threat to lead the league in targets. And if we're chasing like this is a tier where I want guys who could be the wide receiver one overall. If you're taking a chance on a wide receiver this early in your dynasty startup, you're not drafting this guy saying, you know, I want to get like that. Wide receiver 12 wide receiver 13 season and I'm gonna have a structural build. No, you're chasing an upside outcome and I think with AJ Brown there is a capped target ceiling just based on the way that Philadelphia plays offense. So for me that pushes him behind guys like Drake London and guys like lad McConkey. I'm extremely bullish on London this year. I think like people watching this trying to find ways to to benefit from our tiers here or, or specifically he's tears in my comments. Like if. If you're looking for a tear down trade, tearing down from a tier 2 guy to Drake London plus might end up being very profitable for you as a dynasty manager because the the sample size with Drake London And Michael Pennix Jr. Is small. But it was unbelievable production in the Michael Penix Jr starts. Drake London had a 39 target share and was scoring off the charts. Put up some tremendous spike weeks. Penix loves London. London's also in this Zach Robinson offense which really looks a lot like a Sean McVeigh offense. I was very hard on Zach Robinson at the beginning of last year. Thought the guy could have been a fraud. Completely ate my words. I think that this guy gets it and the move to Penic sort of has me enthusiastic for London potentially being the dark horse wide receiver one this season. So I'm really high on London. The one guy that's missing from your tiers I think should be Te McMillan. Because when we're talking about chasing a high end target earner, a top 10 draft capital wide receiver Ted McMillan landed in the perfect situation for him to really, really thrive and eventually be like a London. A guy who's getting 145 to 160 targets. Tet is joining a team that didn't have any receivers go over 650 receiving yards last year. I believe no wide receiver cracked 50 catches last year. Heath and Adam Thielen, many games with Bryce Young was like hyper targeted. Bryce Young had a tendency to hyper target Adam thielen. If Ted McMillan gets that sort of treatment, this could be the missing piece to Carolina's offense. I also really believe in Dave Canales. I think he's super, super smart. The guy's the quarterback whisperer. The guy's the running back, ADP whisperer. Did it back to back years with Rashad White and Chuba Hubbard. Sort of turned everything around for Bryce young. I think Te McMillan deserves to be in that one of those. Those tiers. Probably tier three here.
- [42:21]
Harry
Yeah, we did have one question from the chat that you just answered. Who's a likely riser into the top three tiers. I think that's Theo's answer there. And I look at Tier 4 and Ted's certainly in that tier. I would say the other two guys that I could reasonably see making a rise into Tier 3 as early as like, I mean for most of them it's week four. For Rishi Rice it might be August. But Rashi Rice, if he comes back and is healthy day one at training camp and we've heard nothing more about the legal case, then I think he's going to take an immediate boost then. And then if he plays the first month of the season like he did his last eight or nine games healthy with the Chiefs, we're going to view Rushy Rice as one of those top three wide receivers. The other guy is Garrett Wilson. Garrett Wilson's been in Tier 3 for a good part of his career. Now he's teamed up with Justin Fields. That's either a terrible thing because Justin Fields runs too much and doesn't throw well enough, or it's a fantastic thing because they played together in college and did you see what Justin fields did for D.J. moore? We're gonna find that out early in the 2025 season and Wilson could definitely be a guy who rises. I'll also say though, I think about both Wilson and Rice and Tit, those are guys that could be fallers in the 2025 season just because if Rice is not healthy or it's suspended. If Wilson continues to produce like a low end number three wide receiver are going to accept that he's just a number three wide receiver and Tet's a rookie with Bryce Young as his quarterback, who knows for sure what, what what the first year holds. So potential risers also generally potential fallers.
- [44:00]
Theo Griminger
Yeah, Garrett Wilson's like top five all time in terms of targets over your first three years in the NFL. So he's an elite target earner and he's just. I didn't even notice him not being in the the first three tiers, but I agree he should probably be there. Offensive rookie of the year, had 100 catches last year, took a big step forward and he's like the only show in town. Wilson sort of is that tier three though. It's sort of a. We don't necessarily think he could reach wide receiver 1 overall potential this year in that offense. I think it's going to be very run heavy, a lot of RPOs, but he will be hyper targeted. Sort of will be a, almost the, the AJ Brown level player where they're going to be run heavy, but he's going to get the, the overwhelming majority of the targets. I love your Rashi Rice call. I just had Ben Gretch on Dynasty Life and we talked about underrated Dynasty assets like Rashi Rice. When we're, when we're talking about Rashi Rice, you're talking about a guy who, if he stayed healthy last year, Heath, he'd probably be in these tiers. What had unbelievable usage, had like peak Amon Ross St. Brown type usage through the first three weeks of the year before getting injured in game four. So I'll throw him in there and then the other guy that I'll throw in there just because he was so, so, so good last year and he's still relatively young is T. Higgins. T. Higgins last year was fantastic. 18.6 points per game. And this is a guy who only played 12 games, but still was just an absolute monster in terms of everything he did on a, on a, on a point per game basis. Yards per game, yards per game, receptions per game, targets per route run was a 23 target share guy, even playing alongside Jamar Chase. And the attention the defenses are going to pay to Jamar Chase this year. T. Higgins is going to have a chance to give you a lot of those huge spike weeks, sort of like he did last year in the fantasy playoffs against Denver where he got a lot of fantasy managers to their championship game with that particular game. And what's interesting with T. Higgins last year, he took a huge step forward in terms of just the targets. Where a lot of seasons in his career was a guy who was, we were like really hoping for more in the target volume. And this is a guy that Joe burrow absolutely loves. 10 touchdown catches last year and only 12 games played. So have to mention T. Higgins. But yeah, I love the Rashi Rice call. And what's crazy is the Kansas City Chiefs have had either Tyree Kill or Travis Kelsey leading them in targets every single season since like 2015. Rashi rice is going to be like a pioneer breaking through this year, finally ending the streak there.
- [46:35]
Harry
Let's take our second break and then we will get to the tight ends.
- [46:39]
Kate Scott
Hey everybody, I'm Kate Scott and I've got some good news for you. Kicking it is back for season two. I'm going to be sitting down with the biggest names and personalities in and around the world of soccer. No script, no filters, just real conversation. You can catch Kicking it on the CBS Sports Colosso Network or Paramount and be sure to follow and download wherever you get your Podcasts College football Summer.
- [46:59]
Matt Norlander
Is no time to slouch because we are taking you to school on the COVID 3 podcast, part of the CBS Sports Podcast Network. It's time for our annual Summer School Series as we take time to break down some of your favorite teams with experts and insiders who know these depth charts from top to bottom. But summer school is just extra credit because you can join myself, Chip Patterson along with Tom Fenelli, Danny Canell and Bud Elliott three times a week as we go through positional drafts, player rankings and more. Download and follow the COVID 3 podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found.
- [47:31]
Harry
One more Wide receiver comment from the chat says Rome could be a sleeper through Rise might be the best wide receiver on the roster if he gets the ARSB role. You could say that about any of the top three Bears wide receivers, although it seems like the the vibes are a little bit better for Burden and Odunze than they are for dj moore right now. But I I do I 100 agree. Like bird and aura dunes, either one could make a huge leap in spring training or in training camp and definitely early in the season.
- [48:01]
Theo Griminger
Yeah, I mean it's interesting because whoever gets the slot roll in the Ben Johnson offense is going to be the one that I think you want in Dynasty. The problem with Roma Dunes is Luther Burden. They selected him inside the top 40. Burden was just a huge slot dominator at Missouri. But I do think A dunesday is interesting because if we had this conversation six weeks ago, we talk about, you know, fading a Dunes. They fading a dunesday. The market might have over moved here and over corrected for, you know, the proper term. They overcorrected. You're seeing A Dunes as like wide receiver 41 on underdog. Before the NFL draft he was like wide receiver 23. So you could say the market was too enthusiastic about him a couple months ago and now might be way too bearish on him. Adun Burden I I want A and Colston Loveland. I want access to this Chicago Bears offense on my Dynasty rosters, but I think that you want to spread it out and not be too condensed with one single player.
- [49:00]
Harry
Yeah, yeah. At the tight end position. I'm going to admit that there's just not enough players for me in the top three tiers, but it's also kind of how I view this position in Dynasty at this time. Brock Bowers is my tier one, Trey McBride is my tier two, Sam Laporta and Colson Loveland is my tier three. When I say that it's not that I don't think anybody else compares except in terms of value. I'm not accepting Trey McBride and a late second for Brock Bowers. So to me that says in terms of value they're, they're at a different place. I'm not accepting anybody in tier three and a late second for Trey McBride. So for me that says that there's a clear distinction here and I want to start with Bowers and we'll definitely get to the question of who has Heath left out of his top two top three tiers. But I want to start with Bowers because he's a 22 year old who just had 110 catches, 112 catches in an 1100 yard season. I've heard some people worry about the Raiders with with Chip Kelly going too run heavy this year and all, all that huge passing volume is not going to be there. I think sometime people miss is that the when he was in Philadelphia the Eagles ran the most plays in the NFL the three years that Chip Kelly was running the offense there. I think the the split between runs and passes certainly is going to shift from last year. I also think there's probably going to be more plays and so I don't know if I see a big drop off coming in terms of the especially the target numbers for Bowers. But how early would you say is it too early in a super flex Tight End Premium draft to take a 22 year old tight end who just caught 112 passes as a rookie?
- [50:45]
Theo Griminger
I think he's right up there with the Jamar Chase and Justin Jefferson tier and right up there with the the cute the tier 2 QBs in tight end Premium. Brock Bowers is just the most set it and forget it player ever imagined. It's almost like he's created in a lab. You're basically getting Pukinakua but playing the tight end position and Bowers also was able to do that last year on a bottom eight scoring offense with really low level QB play. This year Geno Smith, like Geno's by far the best quarterback that Brock Bowers has ever played with and the offensive ecosystem with Chip Kelly and Pete Carroll. This is a team that could be really really fun and I love that you brought up the tempo. There's going to be more opportunities for Vegas just to run more plays this year. Ashton Genti is going to make them so efficient and Brock Bowers is just such a safe bet to lead his team in targets at the tight end position and the the Trey McBride Brock Bowers discussion in redraft I think is an interesting one because in like FFPC drafts I have to take Brock Bowers in like the first six picks Trey McBride I can take towards the 12 turn. Is that a better value to me maybe and certainly opportunity cost of early second round Trey McBride versus early first round Brock Bowers. I get it. But from a dynasty lens, Brock Bowers is three years younger than Trey McBride. Trey McBride is unbelievable. But you have to let age be the driver here in this decision. Bowers had one of the best rookie seasons all time for fantasy football. It took Trey McBride over a season to sort of get going and to his credit he's really getting going now. But Brock Bauer is clearly the tight end one overall get as much Bowers as you can in dynasty and he's the kind of guy that you know overpaying for in dynasty trades like go ahead, break the calculator, pay 30 over. Ask if you have a manager that's willing to move a Bowers, go ahead and entertain his offers.
- [52:45]
Harry
100 agree. I'm just thought up this question. So somebody offers you a 27 first and Trey McBride for Bowers, are you saying yes?
- [52:55]
Theo Griminger
I probably like I know 2027 is the is like the unbelievable class we're all really waiting on. But I like the flexibility of having next year's first a little more than the waiting two years and sort of extending my build. If it was Trey McBride and a 2026 first and maybe a little something else, I'm thinking about it because I do think Trey McBride is exceptionally good and his profile does have a lot of room to run. Last year he set the record for the most catches in NFL history without a touchdown catch. End of the season with only two touchdown grabs. And what's interesting is his entire career he has seven total touchdowns. This profile supports a guy who could have a major breakthrough in terms of touchdown grabs this year, which would be sort of the outsized outcome was like 15 and a half points per game last year. You could easily see him take that up to 1718 points per game this year just with a little bit more touchdown luck. In terms of receptions, he had 111, Bowers had 112. Those are both top four all time reception totals. And target share wise these guys are alphas. Trey McBride 26.5 target share and Kyler Murray loves Trey McBride like right I get them.
- [54:06]
Harry
I wish he loved him enough to throw it on target in the end zone.
- [54:09]
Theo Griminger
This is true. But we'll take the overwhelming Targets and then like a little bit of variance for the touchdown. So could we see Trey McBride have like an eight touchdown catch season and be like a league winner? Absolutely. Trey McBride is awesome.
- [54:22]
Harry
I want. He is awesome. I love Trey McBride. I was heavy on him all last year. I'll be having on this year. But I have a question for you and it's maybe more of a projections question, but it's also a dynasty question because I, I preach a lot on our podcast and anywhere I talk about fantasy football. Touchdowns are the least predictive thing. It's also the most important thing a lot of times, but it's the least predictive thing about fantasy scoring. Fantasy points. One bad touchdown year, I will just throw out and not care at all. Two bad touchdown years. I'm nervous, but okay. Well, Trey McBride's been in the NFL for three years and he has a 2.1% receiving touchdown rate. Just to put that in context, for those of you who don't do projections, a standard tight end rates probably 5. A great tight end might have a rate like George Kittle might have a rate as high as or 6 or 7% that's relatively sustainable. I wouldn't ever project any non running back for a 2% touchdown rate in a given season. But if this happens another year or has it even happened enough to where you just kind of view Trey McBride as a lower touchdown guy.
- [55:30]
Theo Griminger
Yeah, I mean you could make a case if, if it happens again and he's sub five touchdown catches this year, then he's a little bit of a PPR compiler, which at the tight end position is not like the worst thing. But again, you want to see guys who can give you those massive, massive spike weeks and without touchdowns, then you're asking a team to commit double digit targets to him every single week, which is sort of a tough bet to make. So I see what you're saying. I would tend to think that Arizona doesn't view him as some sort of limited player there and that was sort of unlucky in terms of his touchdown scoring based on the amount of money they gave him. I think I'm there. And also Heath, like these sort of like dink and dunk type PPR guys, the compilers. He had over 1100 receiving yards last year, Trey McBride did. So he's been a guy that's had a number of high yardage total games as well. So he's seen spike weeks in terms of receiving yards. Usually that correlates to a guy who can get out in the open field and boogie and find the end zone a few times. So I will tend to say he is not a compiler. He is a very talented player who's had unlucky touchdown success.
- [56:37]
Harry
I I that would be the answer I would like to hear and most of my dynasty teams would like to hear is my tier three was just Sam Laporta and Colston Loveland. I think the first thing I want to ask you, I want to talk about Laporta and the Lions you hit on a little bit earlier in the show. But first, who am I leaving out from this?
- [56:57]
Theo Griminger
This?
- [56:57]
Harry
If whether you put McBride and Bowers in the same tier or separate him by one tier, who's in the group behind them? Is there anybody besides Laporta and Loveland?
- [57:06]
Theo Griminger
I think that you have to consider Tyler Warren because I I like Loveland more than Warren. I have more Loveland than Warren on my dynasty rosters. But I think in terms of startup value, in terms of trade equity and in terms of where guys are going in rookie drafts, you're seeing just as many Tyler Warren ahead of Lovelands as you are Lovelands ahead of Tyler Warren's. And that's despite Loveland being drafted ahead of him in the NFL draft. And being younger, Warren lands on a team where we have some question marks about the quarterback situation now, but that's not a stagnant thing. But when it comes to tight ends, one of the easiest drivers for fantasy football success is will this player be a top two target in their offense. You can go down the line, Heath, and really this is this is the case for wide receivers as well. Wide receivers who are the number three three target earner on their team do not drive the needle for us. In fantasy football. The highest scoring wide receiver who was a number three target last year was Rashad Bateman. He was like wide receiver 40, wide receiver 41 depending on your scoring. The highest scoring tight end that was a number three target was Sam Laporta and anybody who drafted him last year, you weren't necessarily happy about the returns they had to pay an ADP, right? Laporta was is fantastic talent, but he was 10 1/2 points per game in PPR. So when it comes to Warren heading into 2026, I would be surprised if he's not viewed as a top two target earner in Indianapolis, whereas Loveland has a ton of target competition. So I think Loveland's going to put up spike weeks. He's also attached to an offensive coordinator in Ben Johnson who got a tight end one overall season out of Sam Laporta. So we have a sample size there, but again, it's Luther, Burden, Roma, Dunze, DJ Moore, and all three of those guys could both be around him in 2026. So Loveland is a bet on talent and bet on, betting on him overcoming like an ambiguous who's the alpha offense. Whereas Warren, it's a really simple bet and he's a top 15 draft pick on a team that the quarterback play has to improve from a passing angle. And then I'll throw in this name, I'll throw in George Kittle, who's really, really old. He's old enough to. I mean, I'm, I'm way older than George Kittle. But in football terms, George Kittle is really, really old. But based on the contract that San Francisco gave him last year, this is a player that we can expect to have another two years of immense tight end success. And that, that matters because in the tight end position, when we talk about a guy who can average 15 points or more, then that's a huge driver of success for our fantasy teams. And last year it was George Kittle, not Brock Bowers and not Trey McBride that led tight ends in PPR. Points per game average 15.8 points per game. And I would argue that this is the most unsettled we've seen a wide receiver room in San Francisco heading into a season. So there's a chance that Kittle, who's a perpetual 90, 95, targets super efficient player. There's a range of outcome where it gets 120 targets this year. And if that happens, Kittle could be the guy that you need to win in fantasy. So Kittle, despite his age, he's the type of bet you want to make for your dynasty rosters. And you've also seen a number of these truly elite guys age very gracefully. Travis Kelce aged very gracefully, was playing at a super high level at age 34, even last year at 35 was good enough to get you by Tony Gonzalez. Certainly there's been a number of guys at the tight end position who have done this, and Kittle is just such a great player. So I would say Tyler Warren and George Kittle there and then the other guy who the two of us have been fans of over the years, Heath TJ Hawkinson is now healthy. He's fully healthy and last year we saw him play banged up. So Hawkinson, again, it's another player who's having to fight multiple guys for targets, but the talent is there and the contract insulation. So Hawkinson's a little bit. His dynasty price tag is a little bit depressed based on where it was the last few years.
- [61:12]
Harry
I and I think Hawkinson I wrote about this earlier this month, but just remember that the week before he tore his ACL he was tied with Travis kelsey for tight end one that year. Playing in this offense averaged eight 8.6 targets per game since he got there. And there's been a little buzz out of Minnesota that one of the things they want to change in this offense is just give JJ McCarthy a few more layups. TJ Hawkinson, like Trey McBride provides those layups five yards downfield so we may see a spike in his reception volume. It may be a bad thing for Jordan Addison. We'll find out. I want to finish up There's a little bit of a debate in the chat between whether or not Sam Laporta is overrated and I had a question. You kind of touched on this during your Amun Ra Saint Brown discussion, but I'm just a little bit lower than consensus on pretty much all of the Lions right now. I'm concerned about the Ben Johnson situation. I'm concerned about losing your starting center at 29 years old who was an absolute stud. And I think for La Porta specifically, can Dan Campbell do a press conference without talking about how much better Jameson Williams is going to be like if if Williams role grows? That's a bad thing for Laporta as well. Do you have any concern about The Lions in 2025 or LaPorta specifically?
- [62:32]
Theo Griminger
I think that the Lions somewhat regressing is something that probably happens because they ran so pure with Ben Johnson and all the also the defense took such a step back when Aiden Hutchinson got hurt that this is a defense that we we know will be playing at a higher level this year.
- [62:50]
Harry
Right?
- [62:50]
Theo Griminger
They still are a super, super talented team, one of the most talented teams in football on the offensive side of the ball. And I'll push back a little bit on the I saw somebody in the comments saying, you know, Laporta is so overrated. Laporta is not a theoretical dynasty asset. He's a guy that gave us a tight end one overall finish in his first year. That's only two seasons ago. And it's a tight end that's that was targeted 120 times. So tight ends being able to reach 120 targets, that's not something you just luck into and they're like, you know what, we're just going to target this guy a bunch of times. Tight ends who are can be fantasy viable with 90 or more targets. So Laporta getting that sort of target volume as a rookie means he's very good. He was also a second round draft pick. He's a top level athlete and he's a player that we all view as a very talented player. I agree with you. The Jameson Williams stuff is absolutely scary and this year the bet in redraft and best ball is probably taking Jameson Williams around wide receiver 25 land than having to take Sam Laporta at tight end 4 Laporte though, you're getting at a decent discount in best ball and redraft, especially based on where you had to take them last year. So I can see both sides there. With Laporta it's a bet on talent situation especially in Dynasty where you're going to get a core a tight end who has draft capital, he has fantasy success and he's in a situation where he's just a long term asset for you. Will we see a return to tight end 1 overall season? Probably not. And there's a lot of pressure with Colston Loveland and Tyler Warren right behind him there where if those guys have similar scoring numbers and they're younger they will leapfrog him in the Dynasty rankings. I just with Laporta have found the marketplace there's a lot of people like your commenters who are very smart fantasy people and they're making smart comments like but I think that that's like we talked about the dunes a Laporta the marketplace for him has just become easier to acquire assets and it's a player who a year ago Heath no one wanted to trade UCM Laporta he was and neck and neck with Bowers. So I think Laporta is a range of outcomes guy and I hate taking like a both sides of the fence stance but yeah a lot of it's tied. The short term success is tied to does Jameson Williams go from like a 90 target guy to 115 target guy if he does that that doesn't bode well for Laporta. The one contingent upside outcome though is there you have Almond Ross St. Brown who had a knee cleanup. We've never had to deal with any sort of injury stuff with Almond Ross St. Brown. If St. Brown were to miss a portion of the season with some sort of a recurrence and I we don't have any reason to believe that that's going to happen. We just hate hearing about knee cleanup surgeries. Then you'd have Laporta and Jameson Williams supporting a passing game. Then you'd have a potential where Laporta would see his target share go way, way up. So both short term and long term, there's potential outcomes for Laporta where he's going to really, really maintain this elevated Dynasty price tag. So I think he's a fine player for you to roster. I took him in the Dynasty Startup Draft this week actually in FFPC and I took McBride super early and Laporta just kept falling and falling and falling and it got to a point where it was like fifth round and I took Sam Laporta, which I thought was a really good value a year ago in this sort of format. He's going at like the early second one, two turn type guy. So Laporta is not untalented, he's not unathletic. There's a lot to like and last year was a little bit banged up to start the season.
- [66:16]
Harry
Awesome, awesome stuff. Theo. Always appreciate you coming on the show. Tell everybody one more time where they can find you and what you've got coming up.
- [66:22]
Theo Griminger
Yeah, you can find everything for me over at Fantasy points. Fantasy points, YouTube for a lot of my videos and Fantasy Points podcasts. We're all separate feeds for Fantasy Points. So Fantasy Football Daily, we're dropping multiple shows a week. School of Scott with Scott Barrett and then Dynasty Life. A lot of you are already listening to he's been on that Heath. You might be the Mount Rushmore of guests at this point. You've been on so many times, but he's been on multiple times. I'm sure we'll have him on again this off season. Dynasty Life for pure Dynasty Talk. And then all of my written content is over at Fantasy Points. And then I have a weekly article during the season over on the Athletic.
- [67:03]
Harry
Thank you, Theo. Thank you, Harry. Making everything work and those beautiful graphics. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you on Friday with a 1 QB mock draft.
- [67:23]
Theo Griminger
Paramount Podcasts.