Early Busts! Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Mike Evans and More (04/03 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Podcast Summary

Episode: Early Busts! Garrett Wilson, Zay Flowers, Mike Evans and More
Release Date: April 3, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Crew
Platform: CBS Sports

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Introduction to Early Busts

The episode kicks off with Heath Cummings welcoming listeners and outlining the main topic: identifying early busts in the fantasy football landscape. Heath emphasizes the importance of understanding why certain high-profile players might underperform relative to their draft positions.

Joe Milton: A Potential Bust in Dynasty Leagues

Heath introduces Joe Milton, a rookie quarterback with the Patriots, highlighting trade interest and his modest Week 18 performance.

• Heath (03:40): “Joe Milton played 22 of 29, threw for 241 yards, one touchdown plus a rushing touchdown. He scored 21.2 points against Bill's backups.”

• Jamie Eisenberg (04:56): Discusses Milton’s potential value in a Super Flex Dynasty League but remains cautious about his development and consistency.

Key Discussion Points:

• ADP Considerations: Evaluating whether Milton’s current draft position justifies his potential upside.
• Team Situation: Concerns about the Patriots’ coaching changes and offensive strategies possibly limiting Milton’s growth.

Garrett Wilson: Talent vs. Opportunity

The hosts delve into Garrett Wilson’s performance and his high ADP, debating whether he deserves his draft position.

• Dave Richard (06:00): Questions Wilson’s ranking among wide receivers, citing his lack of a standout season despite high target volumes.

• Heath Cummings (07:24): Points out that Wilson has consistently high target counts over three years but hasn’t produced significantly in fantasy terms.

• Jamie Eisenberg (09:41): Optimistic about Wilson’s chemistry with his new quarterback, suggesting that stability could lead to an increase in targets and production.

Notable Quotes:

• Dave (10:09): “How many rushing quarterbacks has he played with? Zero.”
• Jamie (11:01): “If the Jets invest in him, give him an opportunity to throw the ball a little bit more.”

Conclusion on Garrett Wilson: While Wilson remains highly talented, the uncertainty surrounding his team’s offensive dynamics makes his top-tier draft position questionable. However, his potential upside keeps him relevant for mid to late-round picks.

Marvin Harrison Jr.: Struggling to Find Consistency

The discussion shifts to Marvin Harrison Jr., examining his disappointing performance metrics and low target efficiency.

• Dave Richard (14:44): Expresses concerns over Harrison’s touchdown production and overall consistency.

• Jamie Eisenberg (16:51): Highlights Houston’s Coach Jonathan Gannon’s feedback, emphasizing the need for Harrison to feature more prominently in the offense.

Notable Quotes:

• Dave (16:31): “Marvin Harrison Jr. was around wide receiver, 40 per game last year. 885 yards, which was really so disappointing.”
• Jamie (19:36): “Round four, if I go, you know, hero RB like I typically do, and I'm looking for a, you know, a third receiver to go with the first two that I drafted in the running back. I love that. I will not touch him around three.”

Conclusion on Marvin Harrison Jr.: Harrison’s inconsistent performance and low target efficiency render him a risky pick at his current ADP. Fantasy managers might consider waiting and targeting him in later rounds if roster flexibility allows.

Zay Flowers: Overvalued or Undervalued?

Zay Flowers’ performance is scrutinized, comparing his stats to Marvin Harrison Jr. and discussing his role within the Ravens’ offense.

• Heath Cummings (24:28): Notes Flowers’ comparable target volume to Harrison but questions his touchdown potential and overall impact.

• Jamie Eisenberg (27:30): Suggests Flowers is a solid number three receiver but unlikely to exceed 15 PPR points consistently.

Notable Quotes:

• Dave (25:56): “We know the Ravens offense isn't a high volume passing offense. It won't be that unless something happens to Derrick Henry.”
• Jamie (29:12): “He’s a very solid player for their team. He’s just not going to be, I think, a guy that gets you north of 15 fantasy points per game on a consistent basis.”

Conclusion on Zay Flowers: Flowers offers decent upside as a third-tier receiver but may not justify his high draft position. His role within a conservative Ravens offense limits his fantasy ceiling.

Quarterback Busts: Jordan Love and Kyler Murray

The hosts evaluate Jordan Love and Kyler Murray as potential quarterback busts, emphasizing their underwhelming performances relative to expectations.

• Dave Richard (32:50): Criticizes Love’s inconsistency and Murray’s failure to reach previous high-performance levels post-injury.

• Heath Cummings (35:02): Points out Murray’s reduced rushing attempts and lower touchdown rate as indicators of declining performance.

Notable Quotes:

• Dave (33:14): “I’m a little bit worried about Jordan Love ever going back to where he was two seasons ago.”
• Heath (38:02): “I don't look at him as a massive upside guy. Those days might be done.”

Conclusion on Quarterbacks: Both Love and Murray present significant risks for fantasy managers, with limited upside compared to their draft positions. The consensus leans towards prioritizing other quarterbacks with higher consistency and potential.

Additional Busts: Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield

The discussion extends to veterans like Mike Evans and Baker Mayfield, questioning their continued value in fantasy drafts.

• Dave Richard (49:51): Defends Mike Evans as a solid number two receiver despite age concerns, though he acknowledges potential decline.

• Heath Cummings (52:29): Labels Baker Mayfield as a high-risk QB option due to his high interception and fumble rates.

Notable Quotes:

• Dave (50:21): “I still think he can play at a good level. I wouldn’t expect him to finish… as a top 15 receiver, but I think he's still a top 20.”
• Heath (52:42): “What’s the case against Baker Mayfield is Baker Mayfield.”

Conclusion on Additional Busts: Mike Evans remains a viable option with some risk, while Baker Mayfield is deemed too mistake-prone to justify his high draft slot, especially in competitive leagues.

Listener Questions and Mailbag

The hosts address listener-submitted questions, offering personalized advice on draft strategies and player evaluations.

Key Highlights:

• Owen’s Trade Scenario: Jamey supports giving up Bo Nicks for Matthew Stafford and Ken Walker, prioritizing long-term assets.

• Surge Review: Heath and Dave discuss keeping Kyler Murray in super flex leagues, debating the value of Justin Herbert versus Tyreek Hill.

• Eric’s Rookie Draft Prep: The importance of balancing upside with stable floor players to avoid widespread busts.

Notable Quotes:

• Jamie (58:35): “Mix in a little bit more stability and give yourself some higher floor players.”
• Dave (61:55): “What quarterbacks would you happily take ahead of Baker?”

Final Thoughts and Recommendations

The episode concludes with the hosts reiterating the importance of cautious drafting, especially with high-ADP players who may not deliver expected performances. They advise fantasy managers to prioritize player potential, team dynamics, and risk management to navigate early busts effectively.

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Notable Quotes Recap:

• Dave: “Marvin Harrison Jr. was around wide receiver, 40 per game last year. 885 yards, which was really so disappointing.”
• Heath: “What quarterbacks would you happily take ahead of Baker?”
• Jamie: “I think there’s too much upside here for what he can be to completely avoid him.”

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Conclusion: This episode of Fantasy Football Today provides a comprehensive analysis of several high-profile players who may underperform their draft positions. By dissecting player roles, team contexts, and performance metrics, the hosts equip fantasy managers with the insights needed to make informed decisions and mitigate potential early-season setbacks.

Transcript

[Host 1]

It's that time of year again. My schedule is packed with bracket busting, three point shooting, non stop basketball action. I don't want to miss a second of it and I find myself staying up late to catch all the action I can't be dragging the next morning. That's why I go for a five hour energy shot. They're perfect for my days packed with back to back games or when my favorite team is playing late. With over 15 flavors to choose from like watermelon, Tropical burst, blue, raspberry, peach, mango and more, there's a flavor for everyone on their website. You have the option to build your own 12 pack or 24 pack and have it delivered right to your door. And if you're out and about, you can always pick up a five hour energy shot at your local grocery or convenience store. They're everywhere. Five hour energy keeps me going during the broadcast and the next morning when I need to get myself up and to work. Visit Fiveourenergy.com for great deals and to stock up before the next tip off.

[Dave]

Spring starts with savings at the Home Depot. So if you're working on getting your yard spring ready, you'll need the right tools to get it done. Like the Ryobi 118 volt cordless string trimmer, now only $129. Or the Ryobi 118 volt cordeless blower, also for only $129. Save on cordless power during spring Starts at the Home depot now through April 2nd. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Jamie]

Wanna play?

[Dave]

Can you believe this?

[Jamie]

No, I can't.

[Dave]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Heath]

Off to the races.

[Dave]

And he stays on his feet.

[Heath]

This is gonna go the distance.

[Dave]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.

[Heath]

And welcome to the show everybody. Good morning. I'm tired. It's early. It is so early. 8:26 in the morning, right? Welcome to It's Too early for Me. It is. It's a little early. Fantasy Football cbsi.com that is our email address. Fantasy Football cbsi.Com We will answer some emails. Later we will answer your Apple podcast questions. A great way to get your question answered on the show is to go to Apple podcast. Leave us a five star review. Has to be five stars. You can find a way to throw a sixth one in there. That'd be great too. But I think you're limited to five. And then tell people why you like our show. So if anyone's, you know, browsing and going, oh, I wonder what this show's about oh, this guy liked it. And then you can ask your question and we will try to read them on the air. So today we're talking about busts. We did a show similar to this that the do not draft list or something. So that was, I don't know, a month and a half ago or so. So I'll try to keep it a little bit different here but we'll talk about, you know, players were not loving at their expected ADPs. I guess I don't have a lot of news and notes here. Just, you know, there's a name that keeps popping up and dynasty managers are wondering about is Joe Milton. And MassLive.com reports that the Patriots have received multiple trade offers for quarterback Joe Milton. He was a sixth round pick in 2024. In week 18 he played 22 of 29, 241 yards, one touchdown plus a rushing touchdown. He scored 21.2 points against Bill's backups. Would you value Joe Milton, let's say in a 12 team Super Flex Dynasty League pick 301, Joe Milton, which would you rather have? Oh, two different answers there, Jamie. How high would you go? Two, 2.6 or Joe Milton?

[Jamie]

I think it would probably depend on my quarterback situation at that point. But when you get into the third round, I think, you know, you're looking for as much upside as you possibly can. And I'm trying to think like where he would stack up in this year's class because obviously he wasn't very highly thought of in, in last year's class but we know it's a different class. And I'm trying to think like, like Jalen Milroe for example, you know, like where teams are sort of evaluating him and he's probably fifth quarterback, fourth quarterback, you know, like that's where he starts to maybe come into the, into the conversation at best. And so I would, I would think like let's say Cleveland for example, if they decided to you know, make, make a move for him or the Giants, the Steelers, you know, teams that don't have certain quarterback situations for the future. I, I wonder if he get, got a chance to start, you know, would it be something that could turn into, you know, a potential playmaker and you know, start to think of like the, the high end fantasy wise of like Justin Fields and, and Anthony Richardson, but the lows reality wise because I think he's still unpolished. So there, there's some, some potential there for fantasy managers. So that's where I think it comes into play, you know, 301 would be probably the, the earliest I would go.

[Heath]

Okay, well, that takes care of the news and notes. Hey, listen, we got the final four coming up this weekend. We've got NBA basketball, head toward the playoffs. Same with hockey. We've got soccer, golf. Great time of year to be a sports fan. NFL draft lot NFL draft coverage. All of it on CBS Sports hq on the CBS Sports app. Just start watching CBS Sports hq. If you've never tried it before, just give it a shot. I think you're really going to like what you see. It's a great way to get highlights from the night before or whatever it is. Catch up on your sports, anything you missed around the sports world and some things you didn't even know you missed because CBS Sports HQ is, has its finger on the pulse. All right, let's talk about some busts here. We'll start with Dave's bus. You've got three young wide receivers. A fourth year guy, a second year guy, a third year guy, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr. And Zay Flowers. So Garrett Wilson I'm seeing on NFC ADP. You know, I should probably change the date range till after free agencies. Let me change the date range real quick. Garrett Wilson, seeing him about 33rd overall, so let's call him a mid to late round.

[Dave]

Where's he amongst wide receivers? Filter out all the other positions and tell me where he ranks among whiteouts.

[Heath]

Wide receiver, 14.

[Dave]

Too high.

[Heath]

Yeah, that is high.

[Dave]

Way too high. And I love. Listen, I. The truth is, is I'm not sure how I feel about Marvin Harrison anymore. But Zay Flowers, Garrett Wilson, two talents I absolutely love. And if you're the type of fantasy drafter that loves to draft based on talent, I don't think you should avoid those guys because they're very talented. But it's opportunity and its situation. Those things always matter more than talent. Certainly opportunity does. And I'm really nervous when I hear a new head coach of a team with a new offensive coordinator say, well, I've got three running backs I really like and they draft a core or they didn't draft them. They sign a quarterback who runs a lot and isn't known for, you know, reading coverages and, and throwing downfield very well. There's no doubt that Garrett Wilson is going to lead the Jets. And targets, it's just a matter of how many targets will he get, how many touchdowns will he get. Is it going to compare anywhere close to any of his years so far in the league? It makes me nervous and to call him a top 15 fantasy wide receiver at this juncture, just. It seems like you're ignoring a lot of other wide receivers that have the same type. Some of those receivers, their floor might be close to what Garrett Wilson's ceiling is, but given the environment that he's playing in with the jets right now.

[Heath]

Well, I think probably easy to put. Here's some guys that are behind him. T. Higgins ahead of him. Terry McLaurin ahead of him. DJ Moore ahead of him. Jamie, you agree?

[Jamie]

I would take Higgins and more ahead of Wilson. I would take Wilson out of McLaren.

[Heath]

Mike Evans ahead.

[Jamie]

I'll take Wilson.

[Heath]

Not so easy after that. Talking about Devonte Adams. Marvin Harrison Jr. Take Adams ahead of him. Oh, Devonte Smith.

[Dave]

That's easy for me. Let's see what happens with Dallas. Got it. For now, Demonte's behind him.

[Heath]

I mean, it is interesting just to think comparing Garrett Wilson to Devonte Adams when they were on the same team together last year, Garrett Wilson was the number 26 wide receiver per game, and Devonte Adams was the number nine receiver per game. You know, the targets were a 176 pace target for Adams and a 134 target pace for Wilson. But obviously, yeah, I don't even know.

[Dave]

If Wilson gets 234 targets.

[Heath]

Right. That was my question. You know, look at number one wide receivers with. With Justin Fields. It's not the great guy did great. Yeah. Well, let me just go through it here because obviously we know that DJ Moore did great the first year of his career. Darnell Mooney actually had a pretty good year, but that was, you know, that he had. He had a thousand yards, 1055 yards and four touchdowns on 140 targets. But I do believe, confidently, if you looked at those games, he was much, much better with Andy Dalton than he was with Justin Fields. 2022 was just a horrible year for the Bears passing game. 2023. DJ Moore. DJ Moore was so good that year. But when it was just the Justin Fields games and not the Bajan games, he was on pace for 1,561 yards, 11 touchdowns on 101 catches. But on 140 targets. Can. Can we get to 140 targets? George Pickens was on pace for 125 targets in the first six games of the year. 74, 74 catches, 1,028 yards, 0 touchdowns on 125 targets. Jamie, you think we can get to 140 targets for Wilson?

[Jamie]

Depending if the jets don't add anybody else, 100% and Wilson stays healthy. Yes.

[Heath]

And Dave, you're less certain.

[Dave]

Yes.

[Heath]

All right. Obviously, the touchdowns are a concern as well. But just another thing about Wilson, he's had in three years. Here are his targets. 150, 147, 168, 153. He's at 147 or more targets in all three years, and we haven't had a single standout season yet.

[Dave]

How many rushing quarterbacks has he played with?

[Heath]

Zero.

[Dave]

Okay.

[Heath]

I think. I mean, it's mostly been Zach Wilson and Aaron Rodgers. And there was like, Tim Boyle and, you know, there was that.

[Jamie]

Well, I mean, that his rookie year, he had a bunch.

[Heath]

Was it his rookie year? His second year? His rookie year he had. Yeah, yeah. It was both. Zach Wilson, Mike White, Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler. His second year, he had Zach Wilson, Trevor Simeon, Tim Boyle, and one pass attempt from Aaron Rodgers. But. Yeah, but no mobile quarterbacks. But again, three years with 147 or more targets, and he's never finished higher than wide receiver 19 per game. He's been wide receiver 31, 33, and 19 per game. Garrett Wilson in those three seasons. So, Jamie, how could that change?

[Jamie]

Well, first off, this is a quarterback that he has a history with, you know, so hopefully that matters. You know, the two play together at Ohio State, and hopefully this is going to be similar to what we saw. You know, if you just want to have a comp. Recent one. What did Josh Dobbs do? The mini stepped on the field when he started for San Francisco. He looked for his college buddy in. In Juwan Jennings. This receiving course sucks right now, you know, and so Garrett Wilson should get fed targets. I think this is going to be, you know, an interesting team in general. Will they be able to stop anybody? I don't necessarily want to completely look at Fields and Pickens and say that's kind of a situation that we're going to get. Because the Steelers did not allow Justin Fields to do much at all. I'm hoping the jets, by investing in him, give him an opportunity to throw the ball a little bit more. And we see closer to what DJ Moore was able to produce than what Garrett Wilson. That Garrett Wilson's able to produce close to what DJ Moore was able to do. So that's why I think we'll see right around 140 targets. I don't think we're looking at 160 plus, like what he had last year. That was kind of insane. And it was kind of highlighted by that one game right before they got Devonte Adams, he had like a 30 target game, if I'm not mistaken. It was something three. Yeah. Something insane. So it's. I, I think the range of receivers you listed is fair, you know, so depending on how you feel about that group of guys, you're either going to like Wilson ahead of them or behind them. Round three, I think, is where he'll go, you know, so it's the perfect spot to take a chance on a guy that still has amazing upside. And again, if they don't bring in anybody else of significance and we're talking about the same cast of characters that they had last year, minus Devonte Adams, then I love the situation for Garrett Wilson.

[Heath]

All right, let's take a break here and we will come back and talk about Marvin Harrison Jr. And Zay Flowers. We'll be right back on fantasy football today. I was never really a runner. The way I see running is a gift, especially when you have stage four cancer. I'm Anne. I'm running the Boston Marathon presented by bank of America. I run for Dana Farber Cancer Institute to give people like me a chance to thrive in life even with cancer. Join bank of America and helping Anne's cause. Give if you can@b of a.comSupportAnn what would you like the power to do? References to charitable organizations is not endorsement by bank of America Corporation. Copyright 2025. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with a message for everyone. Paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying. No judgments. But that's weird. Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try.

[Jamie]

@Mintmobile.Com Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per month. Required intro rate first 3 months only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra. See full [e-mail] My goal for the.

[Heath]

Second part of this show is to catch Schaefer sleeping and get in a commercial break like super quick. And he's gonna be like scrambling to hit the button for the. For you youtubers. So we'll see if I can accomplish that goal. Dave's just not.

[Dave]

You're purposely trying to sabotage the show.

[Heath]

Just for like a second, a second of dead air before a commercial comes in. I'm fine with that. I put a word document on the show yesterday. You know, I don't think. I don't think we can really get much worse than that.

[Jamie]

You write down our bets, you don't forget.

[Heath]

Oh, absolutely not. I've already forgotten it.

[Dave]

Jamie, put in a word.

[Heath]

Doc Devers vs Torpedo Bat Chisholm from now before to the draft season, Marvin Harrison Jr. Is a bus. Davy is basically the same ADP as Devonte Smith. No, I'm, I meant, I meant to say Garrett.

[Dave]

Yeah, right.

[Heath]

But he. It's not, that's not true, actually. Wilson's 14th and Harrison is 18th and he's about eight picks later in this early NFC ADP.

[Dave]

I wish a Torpedo bat would help. Marvin Harrison. Last year, 6.8 targets per game. That's way lower than anybody expected. And by the end of the year, it was really Trey McBride who stepped up as the number one target for the Cardinals. And we've seen that whoever that number one target is for Arizona with Kyler Murray is the guy that gets good production in fantasy. That's not to say that Marvin Harrison can't do it. I mean, there were eight games last year. We had seven plus targets, average 15.6 PPR points per game in those. So if we can get back to that point and maybe another year of him improving his game and being a little bit more explosive and hopefully being used differently in the Arizona offense, then maybe that's, that's what he needs to be better. And maybe I'm all wrong on this, but I feel like I got to see it first. I got to hear about it first. And so I'm paying attention to what comes out of Arizona. I'm paying attention to what comes out of everywhere, but certainly Arizona for, for the next four months or so. Because I want to know if Marvin, Marvin Harrison really has a chance to be the number one guy for the Cardinals, not share that role with Trey McBride or anybody else, or even worse, being the number two guy. I, I think if you're taking him as high as he's going in adp, I think you're doing it with hope and not based on what we saw consistently last year. And there wasn't a lot of consistency last year, but when he was good, he was really good. But when he was bad, he, he, he was moped.

[Heath]

Marv Adam moped. Marvin Harrison Jr. Was around wide receiver, 40 per game last year. 885 yards, which I think was really so disappointing. And eight, eight touchdowns is great, but 116 targets in 17 games. It's just. How does that even happen? He needs to be, I don't know.

[Dave]

And his catch rate on throws of 11 plus stair yards. We're not talking about, you know, these Huge bomb plays was 44.3%. And to me, that's gross, especially for a guy as decorated a prospect as Marvin Harrison was. He's gotta have volume just to have a chance to be in the wide receiver two conversation.

[Jamie]

So I spoke to Jonathan Gannon about that. Yes. Oh, two days ago. And obviously we don't know how he's going to, how he's going to perform. You know, he was very encouraged by his rookie season, just, you know, I think evaluating it from the standpoint of getting his feet wet and seeing what he was able to do. And he, you know, gave kind of the coach speak answer of, you know, the things that didn't show up on the stat sheet of what he did to open up things for Trey McBride. And he specifically said open up things in the run game, you know, so you know how wide receivers clear out space and those things and the attention that he drew. So he, you know, it sounded as if like he was talking about his week two game and how that sort of changed how teams defended them. And the answer he gave me, but he did specifically say, like, we have to do a better job of, you know, featuring him a little bit more and getting him more involved. So I think there's, there's definitely reason for encouragement. It's a matter of now where it comes down to cost. And so, you know, what you're spending to, you know, draft Marvin Harrison with, you know, similar to what we talked about yesterday with like a guy like Caleb Williams or Drake May, you know, so these guys in their second year, you know, how much did they take a leap forward for what the expectations were? Obviously he was a bust, but can he rebound to the, the heights of what his, you know, college pedigree was and the prospect? I think for me, like, round four, if I go, you know, hero RB like I typically do, and I'm looking for, you know, a, a third receiver to go with the first two that I drafted in the running back. I love that. I will not touch him around three. Anything after round four to me is.

[Dave]

A bonus when I hear a coach say something like that and if you guys disagree, shoot a hole in it. I, I get the sense that they want to add another receiver to the offense.

[Jamie]

It didn't sound like that.

[Dave]

You don't think they want to add another guy to try and open things up for him.

[Jamie]

He was, he was talking about, I happened to walk up right when one of the beat writers was asking about Zay Jones and how much his suspension, you know, sort of put him behind and he was, you know, talking about Zay Jones. I assume they still like Michael Wilson to play a significant role. You know, it's always interesting with these receivers. I remember talking to Zach Taylor, for example, about Jamar Chase and, and what he said in regards to rookie year to year two and how much just the over they get, these guys get overwhelmed of draft right into minicamp, you know, and then trying to find a place to live and all these things and just how things they get acclimated and, and Zach Taylor was saying, you know, year two was, you know, so important for the, it's so important for these guys because now it's their first full off season of just focusing on the NFL, especially after all the combine stuff. Now Marvin Harrison didn't go through the combine training, so, you know, I don't know how much that factors in with him, but I, I again, I think there's too much upside here for what he can be to completely avoid him. But I think if you're, you know, trying to draft him anywhere close to what he was at last year, which was probably just a huge mistake and you know, overvalue on our part.

[Dave]

Oh yeah.

[Jamie]

And how we ranked him as an industry collectively, you know, I just hope that, you know, the, the, the opportunities increase. You know, you, you want to judge his speed. Okay. You know, if you don't like that, the, you don't think he has an opportunity to be more explosive, you know, he just may not be that type of guy. It could be more of the, the Drake, may, Michael Pittman caliber receivers with just a little bit more physicality and hopefully that's what's, you know, sort of puts him at another level. But it's a huge year for him. You know, for anybody that has him in dynasty or you know, long term keeper leagues. I think from a redraft perspective, you know, if you're taking him with sort of leftover wide receiver twos or the high end wide receiver threes, I think that's a perfect spot to take a chance on what his upside could be.

[Dave]

I'm good with him as a high end wide receiver three.

[Heath]

There's Marvin Harrison Jr. We're talking about here. But I also want to address the, they're going to add a wide receiver thing because the Cardinals see what pick they have. They have the 16th pick. So. Okay, if they took, Go ahead, go ahead. They took someone in the first round, okay, that would be a problem. If they take someone, if they take someone in the second round or later. History tells Me, probably not going to be that big of a deal. You know, even looking at say two years ago when you had really good wide receivers picked at this range, you had Jaden Reed late in the second round. He had Jonathan Mingo early in the second round, bad pick. But Jaden Reed, Rasheed Rice, Marvin Mims. Then we get into round four. We got Tank Dell, Josh Downs, Jalen Hyatt, Cedric Tillman. Right. Like a lot of guys who don't really matter. But I don't think these guys second round pick wide receivers, I think it's, they're not really going to come in and hurt a good receiver. Now if he's not good, if Harrison's not good, that's another problem. But I don't think a second round or later wide receiver, especially in a weak wide receiver class, is really going to have any effect. It's not just on Harrison, but it's just something to think about for every team. Because every year we do this, oh, they drafted this guy. It usually doesn't matter if that player, like Tank Dell for example, if he's going to have an impact, it's not going to be because he's hurting. Nico Collins going to be just because he's good and he lifts the entire offense up. Puka Nakua. Did Pukinakua really hurt Cooper Cup? I don't know. That's hard to say. Cup got hurt like right away. Right. Or missed the first four games. Yeah, but I, I, I'm just saying like usually a wide receiver drafted in round two or later doesn't really do that much as a rookie. So I don't know, unless they take someone with the 16th overall pick, I don't know that adding a wide receiver is really going to matter for him.

[Dave]

Okay, so let me clarify the point. I'm not saying that they're going to draft a wide receiver who's going to dominate targets and completely change the complexion of the Arizona Cardinals offense. But any addition that's significant, and maybe even significant is too strong a word, notable, you know, they drafted Jalen Noel, for example. It's somebody who could put a lid on the type of target volume that we really need to get out of Marvin Harrison because he's not an explosive wide receiver, at least he wasn't last year. That's what I'm saying. If there's another receiver that's going to command a consistent five to five and a half targets per game and Trey McBride is still doing his thing, I think that's obviously going to hinder the ability of seven and a half targets per game or more for Marvin Harrison Jr.

[Jamie]

I would think that if they're adding a day two or day three wide receiver, it's more of an indication on Michael Wilson and Zay Jones.

[Dave]

Sure. But they need that improvement there. They need to do something to try and get defenses to balance up and not tilt coverage toward Marvin Harrison.

[Heath]

I'm pretty sure Marvin Harrison has the most targets of a number two player on a Kyler Murray offense last year. So that's another concern. Right. Like you had 147 for McBride, you had 116 for Marvin Harrison. I don't think we've ever seen two receivers with, with that, you know, a number two receiver with 116 targets. So for me it's less about the guy they bring in and more about Trey McBride. Right. If McBride's going to continue to be 150 target kind of guy because he had 147 in 16 games, then is there more than 120 left in a best case scenario for Marvin Harrison? I mean, I feel like there is. It's hard for me to sit here and say, oh, there's no way Marvin Harrison gets more than 120 targets. But I guess what I'm saying is I don't know that Marvin Harrison can have a breakout season unless Trey McBride takes a step back.

[Jamie]

Now, breakout versus bus is different conversation.

[Heath]

Yeah, so, but okay, no, he could do.

[Dave]

You're not drafting him in round three or even early round four, hoping for 13 PPR points per game.

[Heath]

Right.

[Dave]

Which would be an improvement, by the way, over what he did last year.

[Heath]

He can be a number three, number two, three receiver. It could be like 25 with 120ish targets. But of course, everyone I draft in that range, you're hoping has a chance.

[Jamie]

To have a huge season again. Hope versus what the expectations are. You know, so if you, if you had higher expectations for him, you're drafting him probably in round two if you think he's gonna have a break.

[Heath]

No. Why would you do that?

[Jamie]

Potential.

[Heath]

You don't have to draft him round two. I mean, you look at it, I'm.

[Jamie]

Not saying you have to, but, but again, you know, going back to some of the players we spoke about yesterday, like, you know, there, there's a chance for him to make a pretty significant leap. I don't think anybody is looking at him and saying, I can't imagine Dave's ranking him wide receiver 40, you know, so it, it's, it's the, the hope that he can, you know, sort of live up to the draft pedigree and maybe start to look like. Maybe not to the same heights, but look like what Brian Thomas and league neighbors look like last year, which was what we thought Marvin Harrison was going to be.

[Heath]

All right, let's go to Zay Flowers, someone we pretty much have not talked about at all. I love this one. So Zay flowers was wide receiver 36 per game in full PPR number 38 per game and non PPR. And he had 74 catches, 1059 yards, only four touchdowns on 116 targets in 17 games, by the way, same amount of targets as Marvin Harrison, I believe. And he had. And Zay Flowers had 1059 yards. And Marvin Harrison had 885 yards. Yeah, on the same amount of targets. So that's an interesting thing to keep in mind. Harrison did score four more touchdowns. They were pretty similar in terms of points per game in PPR. Flowers 12.3. Harrison, Harrison 11.7. All right, so Zay Flowers, I'm seeing him as wide receiver 26, going 57th overall in NFC ADP since May, since March 15th.

[Dave]

Too high?

[Heath]

You think that's too high? 26.

[Dave]

I hate to say it, but it's too high. There have been pockets of time in his short career where he's looked like somebody who deserves to be drafted there, if not even a little bit higher. But the bottom line is that we, we know the Ravens certainly have the capability to run the ball. Their M.O. near the goal line is run the ball or use the tight end. And now they've added DeAndre Hopkins. That's someone who could steal three, four touchdowns away from everybody on this team. And it hurts. That touchdown upside for Zay Flowers. So now what kind of volume can he get from week to week? We know that the Ravens offense isn't a high volume passing offense. It won't be that unless something happens to Derrick Henry. I'm hoping that that doesn't happen. 6.8 targets per game last year. Early on in the year he was doing better than that. He was averaging almost 15 ppr points per game. About seven and a half targets per game, weeks one through nine. And then after that, his. His targets per game didn't go down terribly. It's not like it went down to like four or five. It was around six and it was 9.4 PPR points per game from week 10 all the way through week 18. Just three games all year where both he and Andrews each had six targets. It's almost like when Mark Andrews started to, you know, get attention in the red zone. That's when Zay Flowers numbers really took a step back. And it sounds like Andrews is going to be back. I know Derrick Henry is going to be back. I already talked about Hopkins. Lamar Jackson will do his thing. He'll steal a couple of rushing touchdowns. I, I love the guy, but he, he's no better than a number three receiver. And honestly, as much as I poo pooed Marvin Harrison, I'd rather take the chance on Harrison than I would on Zay Flowers.

[Heath]

Jamie, your thoughts on Flowers?

[Jamie]

Well, I mostly agree, you know, this is going to be another one of these guys. I think we talk about that. His reality is better than his fantasy. You know, he's, he's a very, you know, he's an easy receiver to look at and say, okay, he could be a much more productive guy if he was getting more opportunities. And it's just the nature of this offense, you know, so you, you want pieces of this offense, you just have to understand that you want them at the right cost, you know. So Lamar Jackson's such a unique talent that he doesn't need a receiver to be 150 target guy. 150 plus target guy. He doesn't need to have a guy that's going to be, you know, a consistent 100 catch guy. Obviously that would be great, but I don't think that's just the, the way that this offense is going to operate and need to be successful as we saw last year, you know, so for what, for what he offers. He's, he's a very solid player for their team. He's just not going to be, I think, a guy that gets you north of 15 fantasy points per game on a consistent basis. So he's a great number three receiver. I agree with the, the range, you know, going after where his ADP is right now, you know, he's closer to wide receiver 30 for me, we typically tend to see him go higher because again, I think people look at the talent and say, okay, he's Lamar Jackson's quote unquote number one option. But you see what his kind of numbers are. And Davis talked about this a lot in terms of where Lamar Jackson's career has been from his number one receivers. Like this is kind of like Marquis Brown's best season too. You know, maybe a couple more touchdown, but it's just, you know, I, I think the, the ceiling is probably 14 PPR points, you know, so another point and a half, you know, in that range it's just not worth drafting as a starter in a tour. C. Really, he's a great starter in three receiver leagues, especially if you sort of wait on the position. And by that I mean, you know, still one of the high end guys. Just not a consistent starter.

[Heath]

Yeah. So we're talking about Zay Flowers here. And you think about it. Oh, he's on the Ravens. They don't throw that much. That is obviously true. They're usually toward the bottom in pass attempts, but they just had a season where they threw for 4,189 yards and 41 touchdowns to only four interceptions. By the way, an absolutely unbelievable passing season. 4,189 yards. It's. That's not. I mean, some teams are going to flirt with, you know, 4800, 5000, like the Bengals, whatever, but that's really good. And 41 touchdowns to four interceptions. And still in that environment, say flowers was wide receiver, 36 per game, not.

[Dave]

Even 13 PPR points per game for the second year in a row.

[Heath]

He's not a huge factor in the red zone. He did have nine end zone targets. He only caught three of them. So I think obviously for, for Flowers, if you got another season of 116 targets, would you take that? Because. Because I think you could deal with 74 catches, 1059 yards. You need more than four touchdowns and maybe he could do better there. But would you take 116 targets?

[Jamie]

Not where his ADP is.

[Dave]

Yeah, you're gonna see some rookie receivers I'd rather have.

[Jamie]

Again, this is not a. Indicative of the players. It's just indicative of the situations right now. I'd rather have Jacoby Myers than Zay Flowers.

[Heath]

Nah, man, I would.

[Dave]

I get it.

[Heath]

Oh, I totally get it.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Flowers is so good though. I mean, he is, he's so explosive. He has. He's been great in yards per out run, great in. In explosive play rate.

[Jamie]

Again, this, this is, this is not a fantasy reality comparison. This is who's going to get more opportunities in their respective offenses. Again, just those two players by. By comparison. But I just think that Zay Flowers is going to be. You hear me say this a lot. I said it about Stefan Diggs, I said about DJ Moore. You know, this is one of those guys. It's just until he maybe changes teams or gets a different quarterback, which I don't think the Ravens want to do. You know, he's been very productive for them. He's. He's a guy that Lamar Jackson leans on. But this is what Lamar Jackson gets from his receivers. He gets what he needs to be productive and successful and it works. You know, there's a reason why he should have been potentially a three time mvp. It's just the nature of this offense. So, and, and with different coordinators, you know, so it's, it's, you know, what Marquis Brown did with Lamar Jackson, it's what Zay Flowers is doing with Lamar Jackson and Dave mentioned it, you know, it's, it's Mark Andrews staying. It's a little bit more potentially from Isaiah. Likely it's now DeAndre Hopkins being there. It's still Rashad Bateman being there, you know, so this is a multifaceted team that is going to kill you in a variety of ways. And the number one receiver is maybe going to cap out at 125 targets, you know, and so if, if like you said, Adam, you get the same numbers and eight touchdowns, then he was probably a bargain. But oh, if he doesn't. Five touchdowns in 2023, four touchdowns in 2024, maybe six in 2025, like that's just a good number. Three receivers, nothing wrong with this. Just put in, put your expectations in check.

[Dave]

And the Ravens love him because think about what he does for their offense.

[Heath]

I mean, he's awesome.

[Dave]

It is very hard to stack the box against Baltimore when you've got a guy with that kind of speed running around all over the place.

[Heath]

All right, let's get a couple of quarterback busts here. We got Jordan Love and Kyler Murray. Gamer. Gamer. Eric agrees with Jamie about Myers over Flowers.

[Jamie]

That stands.

[Heath]

Yeah, I have a Twitter poll up now. I just, I just put it up. Who'd rather have him, ppr, Myers or Flowers? Pretty close.

[Jamie]

I'd be surprised if Myers won.

[Heath]

I wouldn't be surprised. I mean it's, it's an argument that makes a lot of sense. Right now it's 53, Myers 47. For flowers only 19 votes. Okay, Jordan Love and Kyler Murray are busts for you, Dave.

[Dave]

I reserve the right to change my mind on both of these guys. Without question, the draft hasn't happened yet, so obviously if either or both of these teams make additions to their receiving core that are significant, then I think that that matters a lot. But I feel like we're at a point now in fantasy where when we talk about the quarterbacks that we're taking in round nine plus these guys fit that bill and there are so many other quarterbacks that I believe have more upside than both of them. And I was a Jordan Love Guy last year definitely thought that he would have a big year and I wonder if injuries kind of waylaid him a little bit. The fact that he couldn't like it felt like he didn't have his receiving core at full strength all season long, that there were moments where he had him but one guy would get hurt, another guy would leave the team for a week, etc. Etc. I, I just, I'm a little bit worried about Jordan Love ever going back to where he was two seasons ago and so names like Dak and even Justin Fields, Brock Purdy, Bo Nicks, Justin Herbert, like those guys are all going to go ahead of Jordan Love for me. So I don't really view him as somebody that's even like a priority in that late round dart throw range. You can make the case that Kyler could be if the Cardinals do improve their offense overall, they haven't done it yet. He's been under 22 fantasy points per game each of the last three seasons and it just, it makes me nervous that he's never going to hit the upside that we saw from him once upon a time. Even though he will run, he's great at scoring touchdowns in the red zone. He's got McBride, he's got Harrison. I, I just worry a little bit about just how much upside he has, especially after a year when we all bought in or most of us bought in to the upside that he had and he didn't quite deliver to expectations. I think we can find 12 plus quarterbacks that can be better than Kyler Murray again.

[Heath]

Yeah, I think with Murray he was QB12 last year per game with kind of a bad year. So that's encouraging because he ran for 572 yards and five touchdowns and I believe each of the previous two seasons. I'm sure you are not azer stating his points per game but I mean I feel like you should because at least in one year he tore his ACL like super quick. I think that was just 2022, not 2023 but right. So like you got to take that game out. I think he was doing pretty well. Like yeah, he played three snaps in one game. So what was his, his pace in 2022 before he tore his ACL? It was 4, 000 yards, 24 touchdowns, 12 interceptions plus another 706 rushing yards and five touchdowns. That's a starter, right? That's absolutely a fan.

[Dave]

Hasn't been that guy since during the acl.

[Heath]

That's true but you don't really expect it the first year back Right.

[Dave]

And it wasn't that way the second year back.

[Heath]

Right. Yeah. So what happened last year? You know, I mean that, that's really the question here. What happened? And again, he wasn't that bad. He was QB12 per game. He averaged a little under 20 fantasy points per game. It's not that good. But for a bad year for him to be QB12 per game and 6point, forget about 4point is even better. 6point per passing touchdown league. I could still get on board with Kyler Murray and I don't need them to upgrade their offense at all. Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison should be enough for him. He's, he's, you know, he had Hopkins obviously at his best, but this should be enough for Kyler Murray. Anybody who runs, anybody who can run for 570 yards, this is enough offensive weaponry for him.

[Jamie]

I agree with you. I think again it comes down to where you're drafting him, you know, so if, if you're going back to where he was a year ago with the expectation of, okay, he can get back to north of 700 yards rushing or in that range and you know, be a 30 plus touchdown guy, then you're probably reaching for him. But I think he's going to be in that group of quarterbacks. You know, a couple of guys we talked about yesterday, Caleb Williams and, and Bo Nix I think will be sort of drafted around that, you know, sort of group with tua, Brock Purdy, you know, those type of guys. And, and you can easily make the case he has more upside than all of them. And you can make the case that, you know, the younger guys are probably in a better spot if they hit. You know, Nick showed you that last year, you know, and, and got a, a player upgrade with Evan Ingram. So it's just again, a matter of, I think where you're looking at him. I don't think anybody's drafting Jordan Love as a starter this year. So, you know, to me it feels like he's one of those number two quarterbacks that you actually target because if he comes back to the level, anywhere close of what he finished in 20, 23, like that's a steal. So, you know, where people I think are looking at Jordan Love, you know, the value will probably be fine. But for me with Kyler, he's, he's right around, I think either QB11 or QB12. There's just still too much upside to ignore, to not look at him and say, okay, low end starter, he's still in that range.

[Heath]

Dave, I think if there's an argument against Kyler, because I'm. I'm just looking at his stat page and looking at his 2024 compared to his best seasons. One thing that really jumps out is his touchdown rate around closer to 5% in 2020 and 2021, and then 3.9% last year. So if he can get to, like, 25 touchdown passes instead of 2021 like he had last year, okay, we start there. But one thing that would concern me is that he did rush fewer times last year. 4.6 rushes per game was a career low. He had.

[Jamie]

You see what. What Brian Schonheimer said.

[Heath]

No.

[Jamie]

So they have somebody on their staff or. I don't know exactly who he was referencing, but somebody who was with the Cardinals. And it kind of made some waves Tuesday that he said that Kyler told whoever this coach was that there were games where he didn't want to run.

[Heath]

Oh, is that right?

[Jamie]

Yeah. I'll see if I get the quote.

[Dave]

Brian Scheinheimer said that he, in his.

[Jamie]

Meeting with him, somebody asked him about a coach that's on his staff, and he was talking about, you know, maybe Dak being more mobile. And he said something. I get the exact thing.

[Heath]

Well, I was going to say, Dave, is. He had a career low in rush attempts per game. He had a career high in yards per carry. So if he's going to rush less and he doesn't back it up with the. That efficiency, well, then you go from 575 yards to maybe 475 yards, and that is. That is a big deal. So I. I don't think I really look at him as, like, a massive upside guy. He. He. At times, Kyler Murray was the best quarterback in fantasy for stretches when he was just heaving it to Deandre Hopkins and running all over the place. Those days might be done. But. But. Yeah, that's. Yeah, there you go. That's all I have to say. Period. All right. You know, I think we should talk about Jamie's after this commercial break.

[Dave]

Go pro baller. Lonzo Ball for buzzballs. Ready to go. Cocktails take 12.

[Heath]

Buzzballs just dropped their biggest blue balls.

[Dave]

Script says biggies blue balls. Lonzo, take 13.

[Jamie]

Blue balls just dropped their biggest buzz balls.

[Heath]

Ugh.

[Dave]

Let's try a vocal exercise.

[Jamie]

Buzz balls. Biggies.

[Dave]

Blue balls.

[Jamie]

Buzz balls.

[Heath]

Biggies.

[Jamie]

Blue balls.

[Dave]

Big balls just dropped.

[Jamie]

Get blue balls this season with buzz balls.

[Dave]

Please read responsibly. Buzz balls available in spirit, wine and malt, 15% alcohol by Volvo and Busballs, LLC, Carrollton, Texas.

[Jamie]

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[Heath]

Very good, very good. Well timed. Commercial break.

[Jamie]

All right, so the reason here's what he said. He was referencing Clayton Adams, who was with the Cardinals last year.

[Heath]

Sure.

[Jamie]

Yeah. And Schottenheimer said Murray never wanted to run the ball. Here's the full quote. When he was the starter, he'd say, I don't want to, I'm not in the mood to run this week.

[Dave]

Cool.

[Heath]

Wow. Now is that, is that still getting healthy from the knee?

[Jamie]

I mean, look, we, we know he can be, I don't know. Moody is the right word. But he certainly has, you know, shown some body language issues that people have commented on, you know, when things are going bad in, in Arizona and who knows? I mean, look, you know, sometimes these guys as they age, especially after they suffer a significant injury, you know, they don't want to put themselves at risk. It's just a little, you know, I mean, he's saying this second hand. The fact that he's saying in a media session is a little bit, you know, eyebrow raising that he would bring that up. But in any event, again, it made some, some waves when he said it in his, in the Cowboys quarterback saying this about the Cardinals starting quarterback. Cowboys coach saying about this Cardinal starting quarterback is a little bit.

[Heath]

Yeah, that is weird. By the way, comment in the chat again from Eric, I'm with Adam Kyler isn't someone I'll pick up again. I hope that that's not the message I conveyed. That is not what I was trying to say. I in fact will pick him up. I like the fact that he's somewhere around QB12 and ADP. I hope he falls a little further. I don't like last year. I mean we were talking, we were wrong about him last year. We were talking about him as one of the best quarterback values. Maybe he was like QB8 or something, you know, kind of like a seventh round pick or something. You know, something like that. Now you're getting a discount on that. I would pick him up. I wouldn't Draft him where I used to draft him, but I would draft Kyler Murray. So I, I, sorry if I was confusing. Yeah.

[Jamie]

To tie in the, the young quarterbacks, like, this is a perfect pairing for me, you know, so if I can get Caleb Williams and Kyler Murray, I'm thrilled with that.

[Heath]

All right, let's go to Jamie's bus. And I didn't spend, I, I didn't budget a lot of time on this, Jamie, because we talked about this on the players to avoid like the do not draft list episode.

[Jamie]

But yeah, the list I gave you was a story that I wrote about a month ago pre free agency. So it was probably around the time that we did this. And these are the list of guys I gave you, Right.

[Heath]

It was Saquon Barkley and then it was a bunch of old guys. Barkley's a little old. James Connor, Aaron Jones, Mike Evans, Debo, Samuel Cooper Cup, Travis Kelsey. So Barkley. I know, look, we, this comes up a lot, right? Where is he in your overall rankings?

[Jamie]

I believe he is seventh. I will not be getting Saquon Bar.

[Heath]

You're cool with that because you do a lot of leagues and my recommendation is to not have zero leagues with Saquon Barkley.

[Jamie]

Well, I think, you know, I said this on a recent episode. I will always try and draft almost every player.

[Heath]

Right.

[Jamie]

And I never for the most, especially the high end players. Like, I, I rarely come out of the 25 leagues that I do without some shares of almost every. And this is, you know, hey, this guy's a bust. I, I still take a chance on him and I obviously try to do it at, at value, but sure, you know that. So the way I have it right now, I have him as RB3 and behind Chase Jefferson and CD Lamb for sure. So maybe he's six overall.

[Heath]

Yeah. And the running backs at the top, I mean, they all have question marks. Bijan's got algier and not if you listen to remorse. What give me those quotes.

[Jamie]

So I asked him, you know, what changed when he went from, you know, more of a committee to the featured guy. And I said, did you, did you think he could just handle at that point? And he goes, I don't know what Bijan can't handle right now, you know, and so I didn't want to ask the question because I, I honestly got a little sheepish like to say this, this phrase in March, but do you consider him an MVP candidate? You know, based on what Saquon Barkley just did and you know, you don't want to say that with a running back, you certainly don't want to put those expectations on somebody, but he has that type of upside. Like he could be a. A 20, 200, 20, 300 total yard guy. He could challenge to lead the NFL in rushing yards. He's at the apex of his age, you know, to have the breakout season that we're all sort of, you know, putting on him. And maybe again, similar to Marvin Harrison, we had too high expectations for him as a rookie, but he fulfilled it in the second half of last season as we talked about. And so to me, he's RB1. You can make a case. He's, you know, player one. And I just think like his ascension is going to pass Barkley, for example, Jameer Gibbs is a little tougher sell because of the timeshare that he's in. But in the offensive system, even with the change behind that offensive line and again, they lost somebody, I still think that there's a potential for him to showcase what he did. As David Montgomery is getting to that point where maybe you have to worry about age. I'm not looking at Barkley as a player that's going to replicate what he did last year. And I'm concerned about the fall off. The workload is terrifying and the history of 2,000 yards, rushers, small sample size. He's the ninth to do it. It's just not good. So I still, again, I'm not saying don't draft Saquon Barkley in round one. Dan told you on a previous show, that's still his RB1. It's going to be a lot of people's RB1s again. You look at it, you say offensive line's great. He just showed you what he can do when he's healthy in a great system. I get it. But I'm just a little bit concerned that we're going to have 1500 total yard season for Saquon Barkley. And the reception total is scary with Jalen hurts because it's just not something that he does with his running backs. And so, you know, if you're getting even the same receiving numbers, fine. It's just not RB1 for me. I think Bijan could be a 60 plus catch guy.

[Heath]

And I just want to say this though, because, you know, you talked about what, you know, he became the workhorse I talked about. I mentioned these numbers. Last time we had this discussion about Bijan being RB1, he actually didn't really become that workhorse. It was the last 12 games, it was the number one running back per game, Bijan Robinson and he was on pace for 336 running carries, which is awesome. But they became extremely run heavy. They were fourth in run rate. Tyler Algiers still was on pace for 104 carries there. No, 147 carries. He had 104. So he had 69 and a half percent of the running back carries in the first five games of the season when Bijan was a huge bust running back 24 per game, he had 67% of the carries. So they didn't change the split. They just ran the ball over and over and over and over and over again. I don't know if they're going to do that. I think they'll probably change the split more. I think it'll be more Bijan heavy than Algier, but that's just a total guess.

[Jamie]

But that's the way it sounded from Morris.

[Heath]

Yeah, I mean, but you know, I mean we don't really care about that, right? I mean these guys say so many things. I don't care that that Aaron Glenn is talking up three running backs. They always do that. They talk about, they talk up all the guys on their roster. You know what I mean? They're not going to use, they're not going to use Isaiah Davis. I mean if they do, it's going to be so sparing. So sparing.

[Jamie]

I, I think fair comp like we talked about yesterday was the Tampa Bay situation. Like Isaiah Davis will be Sean Tucker, you know, it'll be a guy that works in and if there's an injury. But in the case of Aaron Glenn it was where's Breeze hall at? And he said we have three running backs that we like. You know, it wasn't just the typical coach answer of yeah, we're expecting Breeze hall to come back and be a superstar. Like he could have said it that way without necessarily bringing in the other two guys. Like, you know, again I asked Andy Reid about Elijah Mitchell. He didn't bring up Isaiah Pacheco. I asked the follow up question about Isaiah Pacheco. He talked just about Elijah Mitchell, you know, and Pacheco. When I asked him about that, it's not like he said, said we're going to share the load with Cream Hunt and, and Mitchell. You know, it was specific to that answer. So, you know, you got to sort of read between the lines with these situations again, you know, I can't sit here and, and, and replicate RE Morris's enthusiasm about Bijan Robinson. After I was done asking my question, I went to who was the table next to him? Oh, I was listening a little bit to Kevin O'Connell to try and make sure Thomas was happy and Morris was still right there. I heard somebody else ask a Bijan question, and again, like, he just, like, lit up the room. Like. Yeah, you hear guys, they're just excited to talk about other players, about their players, and you could tell the difference. And you tell the difference between Aaron Glenn's answer about Breeze hall and Raheem Morris's answer about Bijan Robinson. Like, it's just. It's just hard to explain.

[Heath]

No, I get it. You did a good job explaining it the day of.

[Dave]

It's like when somebody asks me about who I work with, and I go, yeah, man, Jamie's awesome. And Heath was. His projections, they're great. And Adam's great, too, but I say it more like, Adam's great, but we.

[Heath]

Have a lot of great hosts. We have a lot of guys who can. Who can step in. You know, we have three. Three hosts, but Adam's great. Dave, let's just finish here, because then we'll get to the questions Jamie put in this column from over a month ago. James Connor, Aaron Jones, Mike Evans, Debo, Samuel Cooper cup, and Travis Kelsey, James Connor, Aaron Jones, Mike Ev Depot, Samuel Cooper cup, and Travis Kelce. Do you disagree with any of these bus calls?

[Dave]

Yeah, I'm not ready to bet against Mike Evans if the argument is, well, he's old, and look how old he is. He's old. I. I can't go against that. Like, I understand that there are some volume issues with him, and you're hoping that he maintains high touchdown potential. I think he can. I still think he can. He can play at a good level. I wouldn't expect him to finish. Where'd he finish last year? I know he averaged over 17 PPR points. Yeah, I don't think he can do that.

[Heath]

PPR.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

Per game.

[Dave]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I get it. And he had 7.9 targets per game last year. I'm sure a lot of that had to do with not playing with Chris Godwin for more than half the year, but I still think he's a good number two receiver. That. That one comes down to cost. Wouldn't draft him as a top.

[Heath]

I'm sorry, Dave. I made a mistake.

[Dave]

You did.

[Heath]

I have.

[Dave]

And after I told everybody how cool.

[Heath]

It was to work with you, I was. Had my 2024 wide receiver preview document open. Oh, he finished 11th in 2025 also, and he finished 6th and non PPR. I don't know about half PPR.

[Dave]

See, if you had checked that before you said anything, you wouldn't have had to say anything and you would have been like, oh, okay, cool. I got it right.

[Heath]

First six games of the year with Chris Godwin, Mike Evans was wide receiver 23 per game in full PPR 13.6.

[Dave]

And I imagine that that's what Jamie' banking on is that he won't be a 15 ppr point per game guy. Like he has been pretty much every year of his career. So I, I, I don't, I think, I think if you expect around 15 PPR points, you'll be okay and that's fine. As a number two wide receiver, he shouldn't be a top 15 receiver, but I think he's still a top 20 wide receiver. So I'm okay with him. And I'm okay with James Connor too, as long as the cost is right. Because like Mike Evans, when he's been on the field, he's gotten the job done. He's, he's been a great touchdown scorer. Maybe he's one of the reasons why Kyler Murray hasn't been able to get back to that high level that we've come that we once loved about him. He's, he's a decent option in the passing game. That kind of comes and goes a little bit, but he still gets a lot of work. And I know he's 30 now, but he's still in a position to get some good numbers. He's the type of running back that I don't mind drafting toward the end of the RB2 range. And a lot of other people will get squeamish about Connor because the age and everything else. In fact, he can't say healthy. I won't mind. I'll take him if I've, if, if I've taken. Let's call it three wide receivers and one running back. And we're in round five. And I really want to get a running back in. Connor's there. He'll absolutely be a strong consideration at that point.

[Heath]

I will just, I'm gonna give a bust. For me looking at adp, it is Baker Mayfield. Baker Mayfield is being drafted in the top 50. He is quarterback seven.

[Dave]

And just being clear, this is a one QB.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Dave]

Format that we're talking about.

[Heath]

What I struggle with with Baker is, is the way he finished the 2023 season. He averaged more than 26 points per game in 2023, down the stretch in his last five games, I think. And then, then came back and he's in the postseason. He scored 33 points against Philadelphia, 29 and a half at Detroit. So last seven games of 2023, including the playoffs, he averaged 24.9 fantasy points per game. I feel like that number's even higher. Cause there was one game. Oh yeah. Oh yeah. He had one horrible game. 6.2 fantasy points at Carolina. But in seven of the eight games, six of the last seven games, he was. He was great. And then he comes out Baker Mayfield, and he's a top four quarterback, fourth and four point, third and six point for passing, touchdown leagues.

[Jamie]

You're really making the case against him. Yeah.

[Heath]

So. No, that's why I'm hesitant. But here's why I'm. I'm not taking. First of all, his ADP is pretty high, right? QB7 overall.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I don't mind him QB7, but overall, yes.

[Heath]

Right. But QB7, right? Yeah. I'm not taking him as top 50 pick. He. Look, we talked about some things with Drake May and with Caleb Williams yesterday, and I said Baker Mayfield shows up on both these lists. High interception rate, very high interception rate, high SAC rate. He also fumbled 14 times last year and he lost two of them. He is too mistake prone. Additionally, he averaged like 6.3 yards per carry last year. He had an absolutely Bonkers rushing year, 378 rushing yards and three touchdowns. He practically doubled his rushing production more than that from the previous year. So that's going to be less. Plus, Chris Godwin is coming off a dislocated ankle and Mike Evans is 32 years old, which is often a bad year for wide receivers. So Mayfield, to me, just felt like everything was way too good to be true. Last year played very well, but I think was pretty lucky. It's not his third offensive coordinator in three years. I know it's in house, but it's not a great thing. I will not be drafting a lot of Baker Mayfield. I will not be drafting any of him. If he's a top 50 pick, I would consider him maybe 70 or later.

[Dave]

Right. So I'm with you. On, on cost. The, the exercise that we're all going to have to go through over the next three to four months is which quarterbacks would you happily take ahead of Baker?

[Heath]

It. It's less that and more. I just would rather wait several rounds and take these guys who I think could also be really good. You know, it's. I don't think he's ranked inappropriately, but I'm just not going to draft Baker Mayfield at cost. And I, I Do see some downside. I really do.

[Dave]

Of course.

[Jamie]

Just.

[Heath]

He's just too mistake. Just look at his career. I mean, the case against Baker Mayfield is Baker Mayfield.

[Jamie]

Yeah. Two things, though, that stand out to me. First off, you say look at his career. I think we, you know, you go back to his, his healthy days in Cleveland and this looked like a quarterback on the rise, you know, especially what he did as a rookie. And then, you know, the shoulder problems became an issue. I, I look at two, two things with, with Tampa. First off, what he was able to do that stretch before Mike Evans came back when got, when they both got hurt in week seven, and he was able to still stay afloat as a 20 plus point per game by was hovering right around 20. But it was what he did with his legs, what he did with Kate Otten, and then that sort of factors into the, the next part of this to, you know, sort of counter your Godwin Evans thing. Like they have other guys now. Like, you know, he showed that he could get production from on. I don't think I was going to be anything when everybody's healthy, but, you know, could certainly be a factor. And now Jalen McMillan, like, they have a legitimate third option here, which is kind of why I'm a little concerned about Evans. You know, you guys sort of made the point for me with what he, what he did in the first seven games when Godwin was healthy. Well, now you're factoring in a better third receiver who's, you know, hopefully matured to the point where they can lean on him a little bit more. And Todd Bowles did speak about that, so I think there's options in the passing game. He's proven what, what kind of a player he's been in, in this, with this franchise. And so, you know, Dave's. They've said it best. You know, once you get past the top five quarterbacks, it's I think, really all crap.

[Heath]

Shoot that. Right? So why am I going to pay up for qb?

[Jamie]

Well, that's the, that's the thing with Baker. So I agree with you on, on the, the cost. Like, if you're telling me I have to draft the sixth or seventh quarterback in the top 50, I'd rather wait. It's just it. I think the, the sliding scale of what the points per game will be will be not enough to justify reaching for Baker Mayfield or Jared Goff or whoever it's going to be. You know, you can wait out and get Bo Nix or, or Tua or Purdy or any of these Guys, you know, Kyler still and. And be 21, 22 points per game be fine. So that's kind of, I think where the the discussion is, is what you have to pay to get Baker versus what you're getting with the other guys.

[Heath]

Of course that's what all these discussions are. Sure. All right, let me go through the Apple podcast questions and the emails. Here we go. Owen in a place north of Maine. Greenland 10 Team 1 QB PPR Dynasty League give up Bo Nicks and pick 209 get Matthew Stafford and Ken Walker. I already have Jaden Daniels. So giving up bo nicks and 209 for Stafford and Walker in a 1QB league.

[Jamie]

I like it. You know, you're buying into Walker and you don't need Bo Nicks. As a young quarterback, you have that. You definitely don't need Stafford. So I like it. I'm sorry you don't need Stafford, but.

[Heath]

It'S fine to get him from Hogson and Johnson. 1 QB2 Flex Redraft Auction Format I drafted Kyler, Bijan, Waddle, Kincaid, Devonte Smith, T. Higgins and Olave. I thought I crushed the draft, but then Kyler, Waddle, Kincaid and Olave were all busts. How do I need to change my draft strategy to keep this from happening again?

[Jamie]

I mean, you took guys that had a lot of upside and it just didn't materialize. So it's it.

[Heath]

But did he. This is. So do you think in retrospect, drafting Kyler, Bijan, Waddle, Kincaid, Devonte, Smith, T. Higgins, Olave, is there too many, you know, breakout candidates on there?

[Jamie]

Yeah, that's what I was gonna say. It's like you might want to mix in a little bit more stability and give yourself some higher floor players, not necessari ball in on. On upside players you can easily hit. You know, when you see teams last year that had success with the rookie class, especially the receiving core and, and a quarterback and a tight end, you know, I mean, you can get away with it at times, but I would probably mix in a little bit more, you know, players that have a higher floor just to give yourself a little bit better balance.

[Dave]

Sure. But at the same time, there are a lot of drafters that have the emotion of, well, if I'm not finishing in first, I don't care where I finish and they're gonna go for as many upside players. I kind of feel like that that's how you draft Jamie, is that you always want to load up on those high upside price and then if you whiff, then all right, you're probably not going to make the playoffs, or maybe you get in six seed, you're out in the first round. Not a fun experience, but honestly, like, Olave got hurt. Waddle was. I think he played hurt for part of last year. And just the whole situation coming of the year was something I didn't like. Higgins, definitely. You got to be happy with Higgins. Kyler underwhelmed. I don't know, you took some shots on some players that had some huge upside and you missed. That's what happens when you go in all in on upside.

[Jamie]

So the, the counter to that would be. Is. And we don't know the answer to this, I assume is what did he do with the waiver wire? You know, because I know obviously for the way I draft, yes, I'm going to lean more toward upside players, but I also know that I'm going to be very aggressive on the waiver wire, you know, so you gotta be, you know, when. When do you. When do you. And look, you know, he has some players there. Okay, this could be the week for Waddle. This could be the week for Kincaid. This could be the week for, you know, whatever player you're sort of banking on. And, you know, especially in the case of the team that he drafted. Yes, Higgins and Bijan were good. There were some, you know, pitfalls there. Higgins missed some time. Bijan was. Was obviously, you know, a little bit of a slow starter, you know, so when you're behind at that point and you're not cutting Kincaid early, you're not cutting, you know, Olave until you suffer the concussion, you know, so it. It just felt like he hit on all the misses or several of the misses of, of the breakout group. But you got to know, okay, who am I getting rid of at the back end of my roster to sort of supplement and hopefully help these, help these guys to get me through.

[Heath]

Let's try here. Next question.

[Dave]

Just real quick, if I may. Shut up, Adam. I feel like Kincaid was one of those guys that was drafted more on hope than anything else, and maybe that's a mistake that we could avoid moving forward.

[Heath]

Well, thank you, Dave. All right, Surge review says PPR Super Flex 2 Receiver 1 Flex Shallow 10 Man Keeper League. Everyone can keep up to three, but nobody that was drafted in the first last year can be kept. I'm keeping Kyler Murray in the sixth. This is a super flex league. Kyler Murray in the 6th, JSN in the 11th, and then I need to choose one Justin Herbert or Tyree kill in the third. Sam Laporta in the fifth, Najee Harris in the ninth or Jameson Williams in the 13th. And he can choose where he drafts from either fourth or at the swing.

[Jamie]

Who's he keeping again?

[Heath]

He's already keeping Kyler Murray and JSN and it's a super flex league so I mean Herbert or Tyreek Hill in the third? I don't think we're going to do laporta in the fifth, Naji in the ninth, Jameson Williams in the 13th.

[Jamie]

I'm going Herbert.

[Dave]

Yeah. I'm so tempted to take JMO, but I think because it's a super flex, Herbert's value is, is too good. At best, he's around 2 pick in this format.

[Heath]

Are you ready for rapid fire?

[Dave]

I should say at worst, rapid fire.

[Heath]

Emails. This one is from. Wait, this one is from Eric. I've been doing my rookie draft prep. How much do you listen to evaluation of plays of players from guys like Todd McShay, Mel Kuiper Jr. Non fantasy guys.

[Dave]

I mean I like to listen to Ryan Wilson and Mike Renner, Pete Prisco. Those are guys who, who I tend to listen to and how much do I consider them?

[Heath]

What's on Paramount plus tonight, Dave?

[Dave]

I mean there's probably Yellowstone and Landman and SpongeBob and Star Trek and fantasy football today episodes from the season. Everybody likes to go back and watch those. That's probably some soccer match somewhere in Europe.

[Heath]

Yeah, I listen to everyone. Absolutely. I mean of course I'm gonna listen to non fantasy guys, especially these, these guys are so plugged in with the league, you know, like they have a good idea.

[Jamie]

Oh they're, they're, they're watching these guys year round.

[Heath]

Yeah, they do a good job.

[Jamie]

And that's the thing, like, you know the thing I love talking to Pete about is he'll go and oh, I'm gonna look at, I'm gonna look at Jackson dart tape and he'll yeah, the, this receiver next year is going to be awesome. You know he'll say things like that or this, this left tackle in, in the 2026 class is going to be one of my favorites. You know he'll say stuff like that. Just I'm, I'm not using Ole Miss per se, but you know, he's watching a certain player and then somebody else stands out to him and, and you know he keeps an eye on that guy for two years.

[Heath]

All right, next question. That happens all the time from Brad 12 team half PPR keeper league. I have the number one pick. Would you take Ashton Genty over players like AJ Brown, Tyreek Hill, Breeze Hall, Kyron Williams, Brian Thomas Jr. Half PPR. Would you take Ashton Genti over AJ Brown, Tyree Kill, Breeze, Hall, Kyron, Brian Thomas Jr.

[Jamie]

The only two that stood out to me were the last two. And so that'll kind of depend on most likely destination for Genti. But Chiron is still, I think going to be very valuable and Brian Thomas could be a monster. So depending on where Genti goes, that's the range I'm going to probably have him ranked anyway, you know, so top 15. And those are two guys that are back end of round one, early round two picks for me.

[Dave]

Absolutely.

[Heath]

From Jake 8 team dynasty, PPR league. I have the first pick in the rookie draft. Basically his. His running backs are Gibbs, Chase Brown, Brian Robinson Jr. Aaron Jones and Charbonnet. His receivers are Nico Devante, Evans Worthy and Pearsall. Would you draft Genti or would you try to trade Trade for wide receiver depth.

[Dave]

I would want a haul. I would want to. I would want or a very. An excellent wide receiver.

[Jamie]

I would probably at worst trade down to three with the expectation of I'm getting your one next year and probably receiver can help me not too.

[Heath]

Oh, wow.

[Dave]

What might that look like? Would you take Devonte Adams and 103 for 101 or.

[Jamie]

I think he has Devonte.

[Dave]

Okay. I'm. I was just trying to build my way up to.

[Jamie]

Yeah, I think devonte. If you're offering an older receiver, that is probably not going to help me long term. No, you know, I, I would probably want somebody, you know, that still has the potential to be a top 12 caliber guy, you know, so let's say Garrett Wilson, you know, somebody we spoke about, you know, still has, you know, the upside to be, I think special and I mean you're giving up potentially a generational talent in, in Genti, you know, so it's got to be I, I can still get McMillan or who could ever. Whoever we're going to say is the number one receiver, you know, because Hampton could be two or another running back could be too. So like I said, worst case scenario I'm, I'm dropping down the farthest is 3. Unless to your point, Adam, you're getting such an unbelievable haul or Dave said that whatever that you're, you know, not even looking back. But I'm not giving up 101.

[Dave]

Would you take Rasheed Rice in 103.

[Jamie]

And next year and next year's one. So 20, 26, 103 this year? No.

[Dave]

And Rice straight up for Genti?

[Jamie]

No.

[Dave]

Okay. That would. That might get me interested, but I don't know if I'd do that.

[Heath]

Would you take Justin Jefferson?

[Jamie]

Yes.

[Dave]

Yes.

[Heath]

Don't yes me. You'd rather to say, oh, yeah, I'd rather have Jefferson than Genti. That's close. That's got to be close, man.

[Dave]

The next time somebody asked me, what's it like to work with all these guys? Like, Jamie's amazing, and Heath is, you know, Dynasty legend, and Schneier has been awesome at draft coverage, and Thomas Schaefer has been a great producer, and that's it.

[Heath]

I'm surprised by the way Zay Flowers is crushing in this poll against Jacoby Myers. I'm surprised by that. I don't. I think Ash and Genti for Justin Jefferson is very fair in a Dynasty league. Jefferson's going into, what, his fifth year at this point? I. I'm not saying he's old or anything.

[Dave]

If we were. If we were doing a dynasty startup with the rookies. You're considering Genty. Genty over Jefferson?

[Heath]

Consider it. Yeah, I consider it.

[Dave]

I love Genti. I wouldn't consider it. And I love him. I think he can be better. I think he might be a better prospect than you guys know, but.

[Jamie]

Oh, my God. I got to go get him later.

[Heath]

All right, I got to go, too, Dave.

[Dave]

Yeah, well, this dog probably took a. A boo boo in the house.

[Heath]

All right, we're out of here, everybody. Thanks so much for watching. We'll talk to you next week. Paramount podcasts.

[Jamie]

I get those goosebumps every time.

[Dave]

In the Champions League quarterfinals on Paramount.

[Jamie]

It'S do or die, kill or be killed.

[Dave]

Every decisive moment gives you goosebumps. Arsenal have been ruthless.

[Jamie]

I get those goosebumps every time.

[Dave]

It's now or never. Survive and advance in the ultimate club soccer competition.

[Jamie]

Real Madrid are through to the quarterfinal. I get those goosebumps every time.

[Dave]

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[Jamie]

Plus.