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Fantasy Football Today
Eight Players That We've Completely Changed Our Minds On! (FFT Dynasty)
00:49:27
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- [00:00]
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- [01:05]
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Heath Cummings
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- [02:31]
Host
Welcome to fantasy football today, Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, joined today by my good friend Matt Donnelly. He's been on the show many times before. And it's always a good time when he's here. You can find him on social media at Matt Donnelly ff. Matt, thank you for being here. Tell everybody where they can find your work.
- [02:53]
Matt Donnelly
Yeah, I'm pretty much a little bit here, a little bit there. Over at fantasypoints.com in the Discord channel, basically a one stop shop for all your starts and sits questions. I think on Sunday we had 300 starts and sits questions kind of come through. You know what Sunday morning is like, especially the first round of the playoffs. Fun fact. Driving up to Okotokes for a hockey game. Obviously I can't answer questions as I'm driving but luckily my daughter who loves to play on her phone anyway, I just handed her my phone, she asked me the questions, I answered it, she typed it, she hit send. So we're able to get everyone there. And of course you can find all my work, my writing, my articles and whatnot over@rotoballer.com I do a dynasty there. I got a dynasty trade chart. So hey, it works out perfect with what we're going to talk about today.
- [03:34]
Host
Absolutely. And of course you mentioned it. The first round of the playoffs. Like we spend a lot of time here talking about the long game, but this time of year it's all about what happened this week. And I'm just going to tell a little story for those of you who don't follow me on social media. I was up very late last night because I was facing Jamie in our Dynasty IDP league in the first round. This is the league where I have sold out, traded my first pick next year and the following year, back and forth game all week long. Jacobe Myers catches a pass with 15 seconds left, a 22 yard pass to give Jamie a lead of less than a point. I was crushed. My son was there watching with me. He says, man, fantasy football kind of sucks sometimes. I said, yes, it does. I turn the TV off, I look at my phone and I see the Jesse Bates interception. And it was an IDP league and I had Jesse Bates and it won me the league. And my 15 year old says, man, fantasy football is awesome sometimes. That's exactly, that's exactly right. On today's show, we're going to try to take a little bit of the longer view once again. We'll definitely talk about some guys who are relevant over the next couple of weeks. Players who have changed our minds in 2024 and then looking into the future we're predicting who's going to change everyone's mind in 2025. We'll start with three questions for our guest as we often do and Matt, one of the guys we saw play last night, Caleb Williams. You want to talk about a roller coaster ride. It's been a roller coaster of a last month with a couple of 30 point games, a couple of games that you just can't trust at all. I mean you can talk about how you feel about Caleb Williams this week because week 16 is actually a really bad week for quarterbacks now that everybody got hurt and benched. But also we're almost a full year into Caleb Williams career. What do you think about Caleb Williams period?
- [05:43]
Matt Donnelly
I think we are seeing what we expected to see out of him. I mean anyone who watched his time at usc, we saw the Heisman year and then we've seen the follow up year. We know we're going to get Caleb Williams up and down, up and down. So it's never been the question. But I mean when you see guys like Jaden Daniels and Bo Nicks go out there and absolutely produce each and every week, I mean, how can you not feel a negative sense when it comes to Caleb Williams and his value moving forward? Chicago did something that no other team's done with the rookie quarterback and that is surround himself with some offensive weapons this offseason. We saw them sign Deandre Swift, we saw him sign Keenan Allen, we saw them draft Roma Dunes. I mean Jaden, Jaden Daniels wasn't given these weapons. Bo Nick sure as heck wasn't given these weapons. And yet they've both outperformed him. And it's not like we haven't seen enough here to kind of make an actual kind of conversation here, especially with Justin Fields. So everyone who was calling for Justin Fields head last season to get him out of there and whatnot. You got to remember his last five, eight games with the Chicago Bears, he was five and three and he averaged 24 and a half fantasy points per game. Well, Caleb Williams over the last eight games with the Bears is 0 and 8 and he's only averaging 14.75 fantasy points per game. So I mean I'm going to caution people about labeling Williams a bust because we've already put that label on guys like Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Baker Mayfield and all these guys are the top 10 in fantasy. So I think the one thing with dynasties we got to remember, we have to play the long game now. We don't have to like what Caleb Williams is doing. And we could definitely put other plans into place surround, like get ourselves another quarterback. Super flex leagues, whatever it happens to be, it does take up a roster spot. But it is that built in insurance policy for you so that in two, three years when Williams hopefully develops under Brown and whoever's the head coach moving forward, then maybe you're going to get that Sam Darnold, that Jared Goff or that Baker Mayfield reward in two, three years rather than giving up too early.
- [07:44]
Host
So I There are six quarterbacks I 100% sure, sure know that I want more than Williams in a dynasty league and everybody could probably name them. Lamar Allen, Hurts Daniels, Burrow Mahomes after that, like we thought Anthony Richardson and C.J. stroud were going to be top eight dynasty quarterbacks. They've both been very disappointing so far this season. Justin Herbert just keeps to keep going the wrong way. I'm not quite ready to move Bo Nicks ahead of Caleb Williams based on less than one season, but Bo Nicks has, has certainly been more impressive so far this year. Caleb Kyler Murray is kind of like Caleb Williams just absolutely all over the place. So really it's, it's a clear top six for me at quarterback and then it gets very, very questionable. Speaking of questionable, Kenneth Walker could come back this week. I'm not sure if fantasy managers or the Seattle Seahawks will view that as a good thing because Zach Charbonnet has been awesome the last two weeks. Been kind of a struggle in terms of rushing efficiency, rushing success rate for, for Kenneth Walker. This is a guy Walker who was a clear top 12. Dynasty running back. Jack Charbonnet was outside of everybody's top 24 and they keep moving closer every week when I update my dynasty running back ranking. So I'll just go ahead and ask.
- [08:58]
Matt Donnelly
The question, who would you rather have.
- [08:59]
Host
On your dynasty roster, Kenneth Walker or Zach Charbonnet?
- [09:03]
Matt Donnelly
Right now I'm still leading Kenneth Walker, but like you said, that gap, it is closing each and every week. There's a reason why Seattle drafted Zach Charbonnet when they already had Kenneth Walker. I mean we already know that, but we also know that Seattle historically has been pretty true to their running back. And I, I look at this and you know you're getting production from both these guys. Charbonnet, he's been productive in his opportunities. Weeks one through four, Kenneth Walker was dealing with some stuff there. 12.1, 17.9, 25.7, 10.4 fantasy points. Then in recent weeks 13 through 15, 12.1, 38.3 and 13.6, we had that big game in there. Walker, he's only played in 10 games this season, but has 13 or more fantasy points in eight of those contests. So you're going to production from either one of these backs. It's just whoever Seattle wants to put in there, they kind of cannibalize each other's fantasy production when they're both in the lineup. And when that happens, that it becomes Kenneth Walker and who the Seattle Seahawks trust a little bit more. And if that's the case, then I'm going to go with Kenneth Walker until we get into that contract year, because I could see Seattle moving on from Kenneth Walker knowing full well that Zach Charbonnet is giving them equal or better production on a weekly basis. So the one thing that I think it's important to notice is on going into last week, Charbonnet and Walker each had seven rushing touchdowns, and Charbonnet did this on about 48 fewer carries. So Charbonnet has been a little bit more efficient. But you can't knock Walker. I mean, it's so hard. Go one way or the other. Whoever Seattle seems to go with, that's who you have to kind of go with. And right now that happens to be Walker. But I mean, we're. If we're playing the long game, I could see a scenario in which they let Walker walk and Charbonnet is the guy there.
- [10:46]
Host
Yeah, I think the, the key will be the next couple of weeks if Walker's active. Because I do still have Walker ahead of Charbonnet. I do still expect if Walker comes back, he will lead the backfield. But if Walker comes back and they say, you know, Zach Charbonnet is the hot hand and Zach Charbonnet is the lead back with walk Walker in the backfield for a couple weeks, that, that will change things quickly. So last question we asked about one disappointing rookie. Talk about another. Is Marvin Harrison Jr. Still a top 12 dynasty wide receiver?
- [11:16]
Matt Donnelly
I. I think on talent, you could make that case for me. I have him outside my top 12 as far as wide receivers are concerned. I mean, I've got the usual suspects there that everyone's got there. Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Amonra St. Brown, C.D. lamb, Malik neighbors, Nico Collins, Garrett Wilson, A.J. brown, Drake, London, Puka, Nakua. And then he gets interesting because I do have Brian Thomas Jr. Locked in at number 11. I've got Rasheed Dice, who we saw earlier in the season. He's a top five fantasy wide receiver. One, he's active when he's not suspended, when he's not hurt. So I got him just ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. And I also have moved recently Jackson, Smith and Jigba into my wide receiver 13 for Dynasty. We'll talk about him probably a little bit later in the show, but I mean right now I got Marvin Harrison Jr. At that wide receiver 14 for Dynasty. That's right there with George pickens, with lad McConkey. Now the difference is obviously going to be that offense in Pittsburgh there for George Pickens. I mean, talent wise, there's not many wide receivers more talented than George Pickens is. Now other areas, that's up for debate. And as far as lad McConkey is concerned, great option in PPR for Dynasty, but going back to Georgia, he just hasn't been able to stay healthy. So I think that has to factor into the equation as well. So I do have Harrison on the outside looking in as my wide receiver 14 for Dynasty. That's not a bad thing because those other 13 guys, they're pretty darn good.
- [12:43]
Host
Yeah, I still have Harrison at 9. I'm glad you brought up JSN because he like he has in the last month done enough to justify being ranked in the top 12. He's also probably the best argument for not dropping Marvin Harrison outside of your top 12.
- [12:57]
Matt Donnelly
Exactly.
- [12:58]
Host
Yeah, a lot of people did that with JSN and maybe now be regretting it if they sold low. Let's take our first break and then we'll get back to four guys who changed mat mind this year.
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- [14:50]
Host
So let's just start right where we left off, because you sent in your list of four guys who changed your mind in 2024. Jackson, Smith and Jigba is on that list. You said he's Now a top 12 wide receiver for you in Dynasty.
- [15:05]
Jimmy Conrad
Did you.
- [15:05]
Host
Did you get worried because of the bad rookie season? Or is he just showing you he's more elite than you realized?
- [15:13]
Matt Donnelly
For me, it was opportunity and volume. It wasn't there. Early on he had a leapfrog DK Metcalf. He had a leapfrog Tyler Lockett. Well, we knew he was going to leapfrog Tyler Lockett. It was just a matter of time. I didn't think he was going to surpass Metcalf as quickly as he has coming into week 16. It's harder. It's hard to argue that there's been a bigger breakout performer than Smith and Jigba this season. Through 14 weeks, JSN Wide Receiver 6 produced 217 and a half fantasy points while averaging 15 and a half per contest. Since week number 11, though, the Seahawk receiver, he's really turned it on, averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game and registering the seventh most fantasy points at the wide receiver position. Again, this is for this season, but it's giving you kind of that trajectory in which we're seeing these wide receivers when they break out. He's averaging 2.04 yards per route run, 8.95 yards per target. But the production is coming after the catch. 440 of his 994 yards this season. That has come after the catch. That's about 5.18 yards after the catch per reception. That's more than Justin Jefferson, a Monroe St. Brown or even Jerry Judy, who by the way is also one of those guys who's changed my mind. We can talk about that too. So if you need further proof about why JSN has been moving up and how he's leapfrogged DK Mecca, we've seen this transition in week 15. JSN, he saw a career high. A career high. 51st read target share. That was the single Highest single game first retarget share for a Seahawks receiver since 2022. And Smith and Jigba, not Metcalf, not Doug Baldwin, not Steve Larger, became the first Seattle Seahawk receiver to record 70 or more receiving yards in six straight games. Which I had to like double check that like three or four times. That just didn't seem right. But here we are. Jsn, he's doing more things at the receiver position than any Seahawks receiver has done. And we're seeing that on pace for 100 receptions, on pace for 1200 yards, seven touchdowns coming his way. I mean, and this week those numbers are just going to go up. He's played in the Vikings, so expect another bump up in all those statistics there moving forward.
- [17:18]
Host
Jerry Judy, you mentioned has absolutely gone to the moon with Jameis Winston at quarterback. You mentioned career high for jsn. Judy just went over a thousand yards for the first time in his career. And you might think, man, it's been so far into his career. Well, he has. This is year five, but he's also still just 25. Very.
- [17:36]
Matt Donnelly
Oh, that's crazy, right?
- [17:37]
Host
Player. Based on his experience now, I think I. My question is like, so much of this just happened with Jameis Winston, who they're talking about maybe benching now for dtr. And then what's the hope that he has Jameis Winston next year? Is this like the ultimate sell high moment for Jerry Judy? You say he changed your mind. How much?
- [17:57]
Matt Donnelly
I mean, for one, if you could sell, I, I think you should be looking at selling anyone any chance you get, right? If there's value there, you should look at it. I mean, if someone's gonna offer you a first round pick for Jerry Judy, I think you have to take it. But when you take a look at it, I had him, I think around 143 coming into the season. On my overall, my big board there, he's jumped up to 65 and he's continuing to climb. Winston's basically resurrected his career. And you talk about that since taking over under center Winston, he's averaging 21.1 fasting points per game. He's getting 10 targets a game. You know, Winston loves to chuck it up there. Winston's throwing the ball 43 times. DTR is not going to throw the ball 40 times. That's not going to happen. I mean, what is DTR's average depth of target in his career? Like 3.6. Stop it, Cleveland. You already know what you have in Dorian, Thompson, Robinson, whatever, you know what you have in him. Stop it. Stop with the foolishness. Just let these guys cook. Because basically Jerry Judy has turned into the 2013 version of Josh Gordon right before our very eyes. 786 receiving yards of those thousand you mentioned have come since week number eight. Only Jamar Chase's 793 is more, and he's getting the targets 38 target share there. 28, 23 target. Every target share number that we could see, Jerry Judy's been getting. If this can continue and we've seen the talent, we knew the talent was there coming out of Alabama. We knew he was a talented guy. Never saw it in Denver, never saw it anywhere else. Now he's starting to show because Winston's throwing him the ball and this is what he's doing. Now, if somehow Jerry Judy is somewhere else next season or they bring another quarterback, I mean, Deshaun Watson is just. Just a vibe killer, isn't he? He's just a total buzz kill under center. I think this is one of those opportunities. I love Jerry Judy's talent, but if I can cash in on him right now, I think I would. I think I really would.
- [19:50]
Host
So Michael Pittman was a guy you definitely had ahead of Jerry Judy coming into this year. He's also a guy who has changed your mind, I'm assuming not for the better. Is this a Michael Pittman discussion or an Anthony Richardson discussion?
- [20:03]
Matt Donnelly
This is a both discussion. I mean, Anthony Richardson went from like 45 on my big board down to 129. And that. That number continues to drop each and every single week. And. And gee, I mean, Pittman is a guy I also was high on. I think he had him at 28. Now he's down about 67. So we're seeing both these guys kind of trajectory downward. I think it is. They're one of the same. I mean, since we gave Pittman has just one fantasy finish of over 10 fantasy points, and he's averaging just 8.2 fantasy points per game over that period and 49 fantasy points, that lands him about wide receiver 70, wide receiver 70. That's not even like a top six wide receiver on your own roster type numbers. There's. He's getting the targets 23 target share, but 72 and a half percent of those targets, they've been deemed uncatchable. Right. He's only got to catch, like. It's just. It's.
- [20:53]
Host
It's more.
- [20:54]
Matt Donnelly
I think it's more of an Anthony Richardson issue here. Than it is a Michael Pittman Jr. We know he can produce. We've seen him produce in the past. We've also know that Anthony Richardson is not good on those intermediate throws. We know he can yolo it. We've seen Alec Pierce hit those big things. We know Josh Down's value remains the same there too because he's good at hitting those underneath those short passes. Where Pitman succeeds is where Anthony Richardson fails. As long as Richardson is there, these two are going to repel each other like water and oil. I mean they, they just can't co coexist together. It just catchable target rate on plays where at least one step of separation is created. Pittman's at 80%, he's getting separation. The target is just completely missing him. Right. So I think this is more of an Anthony Richardson than a Michael Pittman. But as long as Richardson's there, it's a Pittman problem too.
- [21:42]
Host
Last guy on your list of guys who changed your mind. Let's go back to the positive, Bo Nix. And I'll just say from my perspective, he was, I think he was my QB 25 when he was drafted. He was my QB 19 by the time we got to like week one. He is currently my QB 15, so almost a top 12 quarterback. It's been good. Or do you have hopes that if they add another weapon it can be great? Or is he just gonna live in that high end QB2 range?
- [22:17]
Matt Donnelly
Do you remember the movie Tommy Boy where David Spade's character is picking up Chris Farley's character and he's like, lots of guys go to college for seven years and David goes, yeah, they're called the doctor. Well guess what, Bo Nix, I guess you could call him surgeon so to speak because he's been tearing things apart here offensively since like week number five. I had like you probably about wide quarterback, 27 ahead of the draft process there. Didn't really like his game, so to speak. Then I kind of moved him up through the season. I got him at QB13 right now in my dynasty rankings. Just on that outside looking in right there, right behind Caleb Williams where if Williams falters, I could see myself flipping those two. I thought he was more of a system quarterback. I thought Oregon kind of hit his flaws very well, the short passes and it kind of, it kind of took away what he did bad and kind of made it disappear. So I thought when he got to the NFL those warts would show themselves again. But again, back in August, you know, one QB league he came in at 187 on my big board. And he's been climbing up each and every single week since then. I think last time I checked he moved up to 84 on that. And you know what? Okay, he had his rookie moment last week, those three interceptions. But he's still averaging 20 and a half fancy points since week number five. That's QB7. That's just one spot ahead or one spot behind of Jaden Daniels right now since week number five as far as fantasy production is concerned. And here's the crazy thing. As a rookie, not even a big time hyped rookie Sean Payton is letting this guy rip the ball. 487 passing attempts, that is fifth in the national Football League. Right now. The Denver Broncos, they, they've realized they don't have a run game at all. So they're letting this kid throw the ball around. 20 touchdowns, that's 20th in the league. That's two fewer than Patrick Mahomes. Seven interceptions, three of them came last week. He's also had 25 draw passes. That is the second most he's doing this with. Troy Franklin, Marvin Mims, if he gets some help. If the Denver Broncos go out there and get another wide receiver to kind of complement what they have in Cortland Sutton, too bad they didn't have a guy named Jerry Judy or anything. They'd be in a pretty good shot. And Bo Nix, I could see him climbing up with just a little bit more help. If he had the same type of options and weapons on the offensive side of the ball as Caleb Williams. I don't even know if we'd be having this conversation. I think he'd be easily ahead of Caleb Williams at this point.
- [24:34]
Host
We'll go four guys here real quick. That changed my mind in 2024 and I'll have a, I'll get, get a short thought from you, any of these guys. Sam Darnold was a guy that as of January of 2024 had pretty much left for dead like we most of the NFL. Even when the Vikings sign him, I thought, well, J.J. mcCarthy is going to be the starter. The McCarthy injury, Darnold's played better than anyone could have ever expected. He was my QB 43 back in January. He's my QB 24 right now. I do think, because there's still a pretty good question about whether the Vikings want to start Sam Darnold again next year, whether it's going to just be handed over to J.J. mcCarthy if he's healthy. Is Sam Darnold even an NFL starter? If he's not in this system with two, two of the best wide receivers in the NFL. What is your level of confidence that Sam Darnold, I'll say A is an NFL starter for 16 games next year, 15 games next year, and B matters in fantasy football.
- [25:35]
Matt Donnelly
He, he is such a tough one to call right now because I do believe that he is a starter. He's proven it. His numbers, his statistics and everything with this Vikings team. Again, that's key here. This Vikings team, I, I just see the vikings transitioning to JJ McCarthy. You don't spend that high of a draft pick not to give the kid a shot. At some point I'm sure they're going to go through the offseason, call it an open competition and all the fun stuff that we hear every single year. But I think Vikings brass wants to see McCarthy on the field sooner rather than later. Now I think it might depend on how far Sam Darnold could push his Vikings team in the playoffs. And if that's the case, it might become a little bit more interesting here. Like a Nick Foles, Carson Wentz type scenario that we saw unfold in Philadelphia a few few years back. But for me, I want to believe in Sam Darnold. I love the story. I love the fact that he was thrown on the scrap heap only to come back and absolutely ball out top 10 fantasy quarterback. But end of the day it's what have you done for me lately type business. It's a, it's a money motivated business and I, I can't see them paying Sam Darnold again when they have J.J. mcCarthy sitting there on the bench ready to go.
- [26:41]
Host
So I will, I'll just eat this one. Saquon Barkley, yes, he changed my mind. I was wrong. I was an idiot about the old running backs changing teams. Doesn't make me feel any better that Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry, two of the guys I was most wrong about this year, just completely face planted in the first round of the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully they turn things back on in the semifinals. But Barkley was my RB20 back in January. He's up to RB8 currently. I guess my question is less about Barkley and more about philosophically. We all had a pretty strong agreement within the industry that if you had a 27, 28 year old running back and you were in a dynasty fantasy football league, you maybe wanted to use them for the three weeks of the playoffs, but otherwise you would like to not carry that guy on your roster because they could plummet in value at any moment. Did Barkley do enough not just to prove me wrong this year, but to make you feel no concern about him going into next year with his age and workload?
- [27:41]
Matt Donnelly
Actually, I'm gonna pull Christian McCaffrey's numbers to the forefront, your honor, because Saquon Barkley is getting a very heavy workload and if the Eagles are making a deep playoff run, that workload is going to increase. I'm not going to say he's going to have Achilles tendonitis in both his legs or whatnot like Christian McCaffrey, but I think there is a concern on workload. We've seen this one backs, even young backs, if they're getting a lot of a work throughout the season, it does affect them the following season. I mean, there's data out there that kind of proves this. I do like Barkley. I've still got him as a top. I think I got him at RB6, RB5 right now in my dynasty ranking. So I still believe in him because I think he's still. He's still that guy. But I'm worried about him coming into next year. I think people who go out there and make him their number one choice and there will be people that make him their number one choice in redraft. I think they're in for a Christian McCaffrey esque mistake because the workload's been too much on him. I. I just can't see it.
- [28:47]
Host
Okay, so the answer is no. This was a one year blip. We're not changing. Matt's not changing his philosophy on the older runnings. I think that's the right way to play. It's just hard to do it in the face of how good he's.
- [29:01]
Matt Donnelly
Right. They. They proved us wrong too. Derek Henry, all these court, all these running backs that nobody wanted are having the best years of their careers, so to speak.
- [29:09]
Host
A wide receiver who changed my mind, Khalil Shakir, really just kind of thought he was just a guy. He was outside of my top 60 wide receivers back in January. He is inside of my top 40 wide receivers now. But also I kind of wonder, is he still kind of just a guy? Yes. He's caught 81 of his targets. That's insane. It's awesome. It's very good for real football. He's also currently wide receiver 30 on a PER game basis in a season which he's caught 81 of his targets. Are we seeing the ceiling for Khalil Shakir right now or is there room for growth still?
- [29:47]
Matt Donnelly
I think there's gonna be room for growth. I mean, Josh Allen continues to grow. They've never really had a. I mean, since it got rid of Stefan Diggs. It's never been Khalil Shakira's time. I mean, they went out there and got Amari Cooper, by the way, who's done absolutely nothing since becoming a Buffalo Bill. But I'm right with you. I got, I got Shakira as. Actually, I'm probably higher than you on Shakira. I got him as wide receiver 31 in dynasty and I look at it, who would you rather? Would you rather him or Devonta Smith? I mean, would you rather him or Jaden Reed? I mean, Jaden Reed's got more questions than answers right now and I, I'd probably make an argument that I'd rather have Khalil Shakir right now over Jaden Reed. We know the talents there. We know the opportunity is going to be there. We know this offense is going to be good. It's just can the volume head in his direction? I think that's the biggest question mark when we talk about Shakir. So I do like him. I do have him probably higher than the consensus. Just another young wide receiver growing with a young quarterback in an elite offense. Opportunity is going to be there.
- [30:44]
Host
Last guy that changed my mind in 2024, at least that we're going to talk about today, John o. Smith. Mike McDaniel just completely altered his offense coming into this year. They took away the big plays, they went to the short area targets. Smith has been the biggest beneficiary. I think he's actually been the best dolphin in fantasy since Tua came back. He's certainly the most targeted dolphin since Tua came back. Up to a career high 70 catches, a career high 740 receiving yards, may even get those career high touchdowns. He's got six now. He had eight back in 2020. John O. Smith is a 29 year old tight end who is certainly worth the price for 2024. Does this carry over the next year or we just see something completely different from Mike McDaniel again in 2025?
- [31:33]
Matt Donnelly
I think the best thing I've seen on social media was that meme where the guy's like walking with his girlfriend. He took looks back at this other girl. Well, they had Tyreek Hill and Jaden Waddle as the one he was looking back at. Jonu Smith and Devonna Champion. That's basically kind of like you mentioned, it's gone to more of a shorter passing game, more efficient passes. I think you're going to get two to three more seasons out of Jonah Smith. I don't know about top 5 production, but I think top 12 is more than reasonable to expect at the tight end position because you got your guys like Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, they're going to be the young Bulls. They're kind of leading the way. But then it's George Kittle, an aging asset. Travis Kelsey, an aging asset. Mark Andrews is starting to get up there. Kate Otten hasn't done nothing since Mike Evans has returned. So you take a look at these other tight ends that are kind of in that conversation. Sam LaPorta starting to come back on after being who knows what he did the first half of the season. We know that the position is a tight tight end is a wasteland for fantasy. And I do believe that Jonah Smith right now is making the case that He's a top 12 tight end at this point, at least in the next two to three year window.
- [32:40]
Host
That will do it for the guys who changed our minds in 2024. Take a short break and we're going to talk about some guys who's going to change Everybody's mind in 2025. If you have suggestions in the chat, I will take those now. We'll talk to you in just a minute.
- [32:52]
Heath Cummings
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- [33:53]
Kyle Long
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- [35:03]
Host
Will Change everyone's mind in 2025 and I may have cheated just a little bit here because this guy started changing some minds for the better in the last month, but I have really liked what I have seen from Bryce Young. It seemed like just like getting Deontay Johnson off the roster and getting Jonathan Mingo off the roster. Unless you just throw to our better wide receivers has really been a great thing for Bryce Young. But you had a guy, one of his teammates, Jalen Coker, who just came back and had a fantastic game in Week 15. These two, can they grow together next year into starting fantasy options? Or do you think the Panthers go get a true number one and Coker is kind of a flash in the pan.
- [35:49]
Matt Donnelly
I think Carolina has to go get a true number one. I don't think Coker is a number one. I think he's a very solid number two. But we look at this Carolina thing right now and there's no alpha dog in that house, right? There's Adam Thielen. I mean Xavier leg. These guys aren't Alphas. They really aren't. So Coker is going to have himself a role and we just watched him. The one concern I had about him coming out of college and I had it in my Sleeper article as a guy to watch all season long is I was a little concerned about his speed. Well, guess what? When you run 21.87 miles per hour on an 83 yard touchdown pass, I think that's plenty fast enough. I don't think people are going to question that speed. 22% target share team high 34% air yard share here in his last game. I mean 87% snap rate. So now he's getting healthy, getting back in the lineup. We're starting to see that rookie breakout. And by the way, this is what I'm looking at for when guys, I'm my guys first off. I flag planted on a bunch of these guys earlier in the season didn't look very good for me. But now we're getting that late season rookie breakout that we see every single year. This happens every single year. But I look at Coker here and I like him. I really like him. I think he, if Breece Young is going to have success beyond this year, Coker's that guy that's going to help him get there. Big presence down the red zone, guy who can go up and get the ball being the dude's got like a 42 and a half inch vertical size wingspan. He's, he's a quarterback's best friend if he's used properly.
- [37:15]
Host
Bryce Young has averaged more yards per attempt throwing to Coker than any other wide receiver this season. So I do like that combination. I still think there's a possibility that Bryce Young could be a franchise quarterback in the NFL. And so if you can acquire him at a discount this off season, I would be doing that. You had another rookie wide receiver on your list and that was Jaylen McMillan and again, last two games he started to pop you like those late season breakouts.
- [37:45]
Matt Donnelly
Does it.
- [37:45]
Host
Do we need Chris Godwin or Mike Evans to go away next year for McMillan to matter?
- [37:50]
Matt Donnelly
I mean, it's going to help if one of them was gone. Let's be honest here, and preferably if it was Chris Godwin gone, but I don't see that happening. This is a bit of a vindication for me if you follow me on social media. You know that I said that Jalen McMillan could be this year's Puka Nakua, right, coming out of the draft. I didn't mean necessarily that kind of production that Puka had as a rookie, but I was talking about that underrated rookie wide receiver that nobody wanted to talk about. Everyone was talking about his teammates, Roma, Dunes, they were talking about Jalen Polk. No one's talked about Jalen McMillan, even though he was just as good in my opinion, as those other two. So that may have got a little bit of a, a following there on social media and some backlash back and forth. But if you take a look at what McGill's done here in the last two weeks, the two highest target shares of the season, 25, 23. That's equated 21.9 fantasy points, 18 and a half fantasy points, three touchdowns. I mean he's close to 150 yards. I mean this is a late season breaker. And if you take a look at the numbers, and this is what I like the most, is you take do the number support the fantasy production because sometimes Rashad Batman, take a look at his numbers. Huge fantasy numbers the last couple weeks, but it's been huge boom on it, right? Last two weeks, 77% route participation 11.9 a dot, 143 air yards, a 30.3% air yard share, 21.4% target share, 24.3% first read target share 2.68 yards per road run, 14.89 yards per reception. All those numbers are showing me consistency across the board. And if he's being consistent in those numbers and he's getting the fantasy production, then you're led to believe that this is something that can continue beyond this two, three week sample size. So yeah, Jaylen McMillan's one of those guys I want to double down on here heading into 2025. And I do think even as a third wide receiver in this Buccaneers offense, Baker Mayfield loves to spread that ball around. He's going to get his fantasy production. I mean, Baker's now one of two quarterbacks along with Jared Goff, who's thrown 60 touchdown passes since the start of last season. That's right. Mayfield and golf the only two that have done that. So there's no reason not to believe that Jaylen McMillan cannot be a force for fantasy. Maybe a flex option weekly next season.
- [40:01]
Host
We had a good question from the chat. Ben says how about Concade? Chance of a breakout next year. And he was actually on my list. I don't know if anybody's giving up on Dalton Kincaid yet. I would understand if you wanted to. He's been flat out bad in terms of producing fantasy points in the NFL. But the target per route run still looks good. He still, he got came back last week, moved right back into that prominent position within this offense. Actually tied Khalil Shakir in terms of target share last week. So yes, Concade is still a top five dynasty tight end for me. I would still be buying in the off season. I would expect the best season of his career next year. And he could do that. And like it's, that's the sad thing about what we've had so far is he could give us a career year next year and still not be a Real difference maker at the tight end position because it's been pretty bad. But I think that we, we've had too many really good young rookie tight ends, second year tight ends and it spoiled us. We getting to remember this is still often a slow developing position and we shouldn't give up on a good prospect even after two years. So yes, Dalton Kincaid on my list of players who will change people's minds, one other I had Quentin Johnston. Seems like and he's a guy who's got some fantasy production and the underlying number maybe don't necessarily support it, but I just like the fact that he's had quite a bit of positive. And so I do think going into that third year, it used to be the year three wide receiver breakout was just the expectation. And a guy like Quentin Johnston who went from terrible as a rookie to okay in year two, we'd all be on, he'd be on everybody's breakout list. But again, we've had so many first and second year wide receivers break out that that's not okay anymore. If you're not great the first two years, we just give up on you. I would not give up on Quinton Johnston. You had Rasheed Shahid on your list. Matt. Man looked fantastic at the beginning of this year. I don't have any idea what to expect from this Saints franchise moving forward. Is Shahid someone that you would give up more than a third round pick for?
- [42:12]
Matt Donnelly
I think I would. I mean I think in the third round you're really kind of tossing the dice, so to speak. And I think Rashid Shahid there you have something that you could count on now. There may not be a worse run or worse roster in the International Football League than the New Orleans Saints. I mean top to bottom this roster, it's not good. So I, I have to kind of take a look at the numbers and I do know that one thing in fantasy in general, it is a what have you done for me lately? And if you haven't done anything, maybe because of injury or whatnot, people tend to forget you and just forget how good you happen to be. Before landing on the IR, he kind of said he was doing pretty good. 14.3 fantasy points per game. That was wide receiver 17 through the first five weeks of the season. His 338 receiving yards that ranked 13th. He had three touchdowns. Average depth of target was 17.7 and 82 rel participation. 34 targets in five games with a 32.2% first read target share. He's good enough for definitely for a third round pick. And I think he's one of those guys that I think next year at 20 Jerry Judy, 25 years old, we talked about that. A guy that we think is like ancient at this point. He's only 25. Well, Rashid Shahid, he's only 26 and I would argue that what him and Chris Olave were both in the lineup at the same time, both healthy. All things being equal, Shahid was the better receiver of the two. So if you are looking for a cheaper option to the Chris Alave conversation, then Shahid has to be that guy because you're going to get him much later for a third round pick where you're probably paying a first round to acquire the services of Chris Alabe. So why would I pay a first rounder when I could pay a third to get the guy who's giving me the same production moving forward? So that's just kind of the way I look at that. The numbers, they support everything here right now that Shahid has the ability to have success at the next level. Just don't expect him to be a wide receiver one, but I think he could give you back end wide receiver two production for the next three, four years.
- [44:11]
Host
I hate to end the show on a down note, but Brad Stainbrook of 247 Sports does tweet out about 10 minutes ago. The Browns are making a change at quarterback. Dorian Thompson Robinson will start for Cleveland against the Cincinnati Bengals. The chat is not pleased about this. Runs every Brown is the first comment and I don't want to overreact to this, but I think that that comment is probably accurate. Dorian Thompson Robinson is a well below average NFL quarterback from what we've seen so far. Jameis Winston is maybe also when it comes to winning football games, but when it comes to producing fantasy points, Jameis Winston is pretty elite. We've seen Thompson Robinson make three starts in his NFL career. 2023 he threw 36 passes against the Baltimore Ravens for 121 yards, zero touchdowns, three interceptions. Eight weeks later he faced the Pittsburgh Steelers. He threw 43 passes against the Steelers, 165 yards, zero touchdowns, one interception. And then against the Broncos, 14 of 29, 134 a touchdown, no interceptions in that game. Runs the ball three to five times per game in each of those starts. Can you even start Jerry Judy?
- [45:54]
Matt Donnelly
I mean if he's going to throw the ball 43 times, Jerry Judy might have a Julian Edelman esque type number. 10 catches for 39 yards. So you're gonna get your 13 fantasy points right there. But I mean, I. It's hard. I mean, I don't know if you can bench Jerry Judy, but I can't put him as my wide receiver one or wide receiver two. There's just the upside's been tapped. I mean, it's. It's definitely limited there. Maybe you can go as the wide receiver three, maybe as a flex option, depending on what you have on your roster. But yeah, it's a killer. I mean, the only guy who might benefit from this is maybe Jerome Ford catching screen passes. I mean, that might be the only guy who benefits from this Browns move here right now. I don't know why the Browns are doing it or. We know what you said those numbers. 40 attempts, 35 plus attempts, 118 yards 140 y. I mean it's. I don't know how the Browns are expecting to do anything here. They. They're not bad enough to tank. They're. They're too far back to tank. They've won too many games to tank and they're definitely not good enough to win. So I don't know why. You already know what you have in dtr. You already know this. So why are we putting them out there?
- [46:59]
Host
Yeah, well, it seems like maybe they think they don't yet. I guess they're trying to find out if he can even be their backup quarterback. Maybe they're just tired of watching Jamis throw interceptions. I. I would guess his act can get a little bit old when he's not playing well and things aren't going well. Thompson Robinson has thrown 34 passes this season for exactly 100 yards. Just an absolute disaster if you're planning on starting a Cleveland Brown. And I guess last question, because this guy was available on redraft waiver wires and probably a few Dynasty waiver W wires. Jerome Ford was going to be the top waiver wire ad of the week. Does this downgrade him in your mind as well?
- [47:43]
Matt Donnelly
No, I think Jerome Ford's going to be fine for the most part here. I think he still has that league winning upside based on volume. There's no one else there in that Browns backfield is going to take away Nick Chubb. He's done probably for the season there with that broken foot short passing Brown. Ford's an excellent pass catcher. He's going to get some opportunities there. So I think Ford's value is going to still be there. I think you still have yourself a RB3 with RB2 upside there from Ford, a guy you could put in your lineup there. That has some upside compared to some other options available right now.
- [48:14]
Host
So I just looking at these where these 34 passes have gone this year because it might be instructive. That's, that's a pretty close to a normal game for an average quarterback. Seven of them went to Cedric Tillman, he had five for 41. Six of them went to David Najoku, he had three for 20. Six of them went to Jerry Judy, he had two for 13. One of them went to Jerome Ford, it went for negative six yards. So yeah, there you go. Merry Christmas. Jamis is out. The Bengals DST probably moves to number one. That's going to do it for this episode of Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. Matt, thank you as always for coming on. Remind people one more time where they can find your work this week.
- [48:58]
Matt Donnelly
Yeah, you can head over to rotoballer.com where now I have to go edit my starts and sits and pull Jameis Winston out and probably Jerry Judy as well. And yeah, and catch some of my work over@fantasypoints.com as well next week.
- [49:10]
Host
If you've looked at the calendar, Tuesday is Christmas Eve. So we're going to push the show back to Friday. It would be a Friday. Fantasy Football Today Dynasty may do something a little bit special for you guys. We will definitely continue the one episode through per week throughout the season. After I take a little break in January, we'll be back up to two episodes per week in the off season. Really appreciate all of you who are listening, all of you who have subscribed. If you have a chance to go over to Spotify, click the follow button. Give us a five star review that would be very much appreciated. We will talk to you next Friday.
- [49:50]
Jimmy Conrad
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