Fantasy Valentines! Who We Love and Who We're Breaking Up With (02/13 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: "Fantasy Valentines! Who We Love and Who We're Breaking Up With"

Release Date: February 13, 2025

---

Introduction

In the February 13, 2025 episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by CBS Sports' Adam Aizer alongside analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, the team dives into a special Valentine's Day-themed discussion. Titled "Fantasy Valentines! Who We Love and Who We're Breaking Up With," the episode blends the spirit of the holiday with strategic fantasy football insights, focusing on players the hosts are enamored with and those they’re ready to part ways with in upcoming seasons.

---

Fantasy Valentines: Love and Breakups

Heath's Valentine's Picks

Heath kicks off the Valentine's segment by sharing his top three favorite players for the upcoming fantasy season:

1. Chuba Hubbard (Round 4)

   • Heath praises Hubbard for outperforming expectations, projecting him as a top 12 running back for 2025.
   • Quote: "Hubbard was better than we could have imagined... I drafted him in our mock draft, maybe round four or five as my number one running back." ([06:30])

2. Trey McBride (Round 2)

   • As a high-drafted tight end, McBride's consistency and potential for increased touchdown opportunities make him Heath's second Valentine.
   • Quote: "McBride is going to be a little bit better on a per game basis next year than he was this past year because the touchdown luck... I wouldn't be surprised if he scores five or six." ([07:00])

3. Juwan Jennings (Round 7)

   • Jennings emerges as Heath's favorite 49ers wide receiver, highlighted by his standout performance in week three despite team challenges.
   • Quote: "Juwan Jennings is currently my favorite 49ers wide receiver in drafts." ([07:14])

Jamie's Valentine's Picks

Jamie follows with his selections, emphasizing young and promising wide receivers:

1. Romo Dunesa (Round 6)

   • Drew Jamie's attention for his potential as a premier talent in Chicago’s offense.
   • Quote: "He's drafted to be a premier talent, possibly their heir apparent to the number one receiver." ([15:17])

2. Jalen McMillan

   • Highlighted for his performance in a pass-heavy offense, especially when paired with Baker Mayfield.
   • Quote: "He became a touchdown magnet for Baker Mayfield... Jalen McMillan could step up and be a top 30 receiver." ([15:30])

3. Isaac Arando (Rounds 9 & 11)

   • Jamie is intrigued by Arando’s potential as a backup to Christian McCaffrey, expecting an increased role in the passing game.
   • Quote: "I think Orendo will end up being the backup to McCaffrey... he could be a potential league winner again if McCaffrey misses anytime." ([16:45])

Dave's Valentine's Picks

Dave shares his beloved players, focusing on high-volume and efficient receivers:

1. Malik Neighbors

   • Leading Dave’s list, Neighbors is applauded for his target consistency and efficiency.
   • Quote: "Malik Neighbors is a first-round pick. He averaged 18.2 PPR points per game last year... I think Neighbors is a first-round pick." ([23:42])

2. Jackson Smith and Jigba

   • Both receivers are highlighted for their yards per route run and offensive roles.
   • Quote: "Jackson, Smith, and Jigba averaged 19.3 PPR points per game... significant upside players." ([26:11])

3. DJ Moore (Round 5)

   • Despite some concerns about consistency, Moore remains a favorite due to his high target rate and potential when healthy.
   • Quote: "DJ Moore should go ahead of him in drafts at this point... he's got volume and upside." ([26:49])

---

Breaking Up: Players to Let Go

While the episode focuses primarily on the players the hosts love, the "breaking up" theme is subtly interwoven as they discuss uncertainties and potential declines in player performances. For instance, Heath contemplates the future of Juwan Jennings given the evolving dynamics with team leadership and player injuries, hinting at possible roster changes.

Quote from the Host: "We are recognizing that Juwan Jennings did a lot of his best work without George Kittle on the field." ([10:06])

---

In-Depth Player Analysis

Romo Dunesa’s Performance Metrics

Darren delves into RoMo Dunesa's rookie year, scrutinizing his yards per route run statistic, which stood at 1.18—a concerning metric despite his potential.

• Quote: "He averaged 1.18 yards per route run. None of the players who have who averaged less than 1.8 yards per out run ended up being great." ([19:21])

Despite the low metric, Darren and Heath remain optimistic about Dunesa's future, considering factors like team offensive improvements and coaching strategies.

Juwan Jennings’ Inconsistency

The panel discusses Jennings' fluctuating performance, particularly his late-season slump, evaluating the impact of quarterback chemistry and defensive pressures.

• Quote: "He was a top five receiver... but then he stunk in the last two games." ([07:14])

Dave expresses caution, suggesting a more conservative fantasy point projection based on recent performances.

Josh Jacobs vs. Chase Brown

Darren presents his Valentine's choices among running backs, highlighting Josh Jacobs for his consistent performance and Chase Brown for his explosive potential post-Zach Moss injury.

• Quote: "Josh Jacobs is a Valentine of mine. I consider taking him in the first round. I think it's probably a mistake." ([30:08])

Jenifer discusses Jacobs’ safety as a second-round pick and Brown’s remarkable turnaround, making him a valuable third-round selection.

---

Strategic Draft Insights

The hosts provide strategic advice on draft positioning, emphasizing the importance of balancing high-upside picks with reliable performers. They discuss the merits of targeting players like Tucker Craft in later rounds and the value of high-efficiency receivers despite lower overall yards per route run.

Quote: "If you're taking somebody based on upside, I think you have to sort of pull the trigger." ([21:11])

---

Prospects and Projections

Looking ahead, the team anticipates changes in team dynamics, such as coaching shifts and player trades, which could significantly influence player performances and fantasy value. They express optimism about emerging talents and potential breakout stars, encouraging listeners to stay informed and adaptable.

Quote: "We talked about how Adam, Dave, Jamey, and Heath should keep an eye on rookies and emerging players who could redefine their roles next season." ([Overview Section])

---

Conclusion

Wrapping up the episode, the hosts reiterate the importance of strategic planning and player evaluation in dominating fantasy leagues. They encourage listeners to engage with upcoming content, including Dynasty rankings and rookie mocks, ensuring fans are well-prepared for the next fantasy season.

Final Note: "Happy Valentine's Day, everybody. Make sure you check out Fantasy Football Today. Dynasty. And we're about to do FFT Express. So we'll see you there." ([43:09])

---

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Darren on Chuba Hubbard: "Hubbard was better than we could have imagined... I drafted him in our mock draft, maybe round four or five as my number one running back." ([06:30])

• Heath on Juwan Jennings: "Juwan Jennings is currently my favorite 49ers wide receiver in drafts." ([07:14])

• Dave on Malik Neighbors: "Malik Neighbors is a first-round pick... I think Neighbors is a first-round pick." ([23:42])

• Darren on Romo Dunesa: "He averaged 1.18 yards per route run. None of the players who have who averaged less than 1.8 yards per out run ended up being great." ([19:21])

---

Key Takeaways

• Valentine Favorites: Hosts share their top players, balancing high-performing veterans with promising rookies.

• Performance Metrics: Critical evaluation of player statistics like yards per route run informs draft strategies.

• Draft Strategy: Emphasis on balancing risk and reward, with targeted picks in specific rounds to maximize team potential.

• Future Projections: Anticipation of team changes and player developments shapes future fantasy football decisions.

---

This episode of Fantasy Football Today provides listeners with a blend of festive enthusiasm and in-depth analysis, making it a must-listen for anyone looking to refine their fantasy football strategy and secure their league dominance for the upcoming season.

Transcript

[Redfin Representative]

Looking to buy your dream home or rent that perfect apartment. With the Redfin app, you'll know the moment your next place hits the market. Set up your gotta have it wish list, and Redfin will send you real time notifications for properties that match and when you're ready to see it in person. Scheduling a tour is just a tap away. Thinking about selling Redfin can do that, too. In fact, Redfin agents close twice as many deals as other agents, so they know how to get the best price for your home. And with a listing fee as low as 1%, Redfin charges half of what others often charge. So you could save big. Like, really big. Last year, Redfin saved home sellers $118 million. So whether you're buying, renting, or selling, Redfin's ready to help you win. Download the Redfin app and start searching today.

[Nourish Representative]

I've been working with a nurse dietitian for the last six months, and it's been life changing. I've lost weight, healed my relationship with food, and have way more energy. Working with a dietitian to create a personalized nutrition plan was so easy, thanks to Nourish. The best part, I paid zero dollars out of pocket. Because Nourish accepts hundreds of insurance plans, 94% of patients pay $0 out of pocket. Find your [e-mail] that's usenourish.com this is.

[CBS Sports Host]

Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.

[Nourish Representative]

Wanna play?

[Darren]

Can you believe this?

[CBS Sports Host]

No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Darren]

Off to the races. He's on his feet. This is gonna go the distance.

[CBS Sports Host]

Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath.

[Darren]

Yeah. I am back to talk about Valentine's Day. I am spreading the love today. I'm hoping that Dave, Jamie, and Heath are also feeling the love. It is Valentine's day Eve, Thursday, February 13th, and we're giving you our fantasy Valentine's players that we love right now. In the early process, I'm also gonna go through some news and notes as the Saints have a new head coach, Debo Samuel. We haven't even talked about Debo Samuel and the trades, although I may have been mentioned on yesterday's show and the jet situation and all that. But we'll get into that. We talked about it like all. But like all of it. I listened to a little bit of the show. I didn't get to hear the whole thing. All right, so. So we won't talk about that so much. But did you get to Kellen Moore? Did that come out before the show?

[Heath]

Yep.

[Darren]

How had that conversation go?

[Heath]

It was more centered around Camara, but it was discussed. All right, great.

[Darren]

No, it's all right. So we'll get into Valentine's. We welcome you to fantasy football today, presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook. Born in Vegas. I had a note here. Ask Jamie how much of the news and notes he got to yesterday, and I totally skipped over that until just now. I'd realized that in the middle of my intro. But thank you guys for filling in yesterday. I do appreciate it. So anyway, Dave, you'd be proud of me.

[Dave]

I would want to. Really.

[Darren]

I want to brag about something here. Ate six slices of pizza at dinner last night with a little bit of two appetizers and dessert.

[Dave]

What was the dessert?

[Darren]

What's it called? Tartufo or something? You know, like.

[Dave]

Oh, all right. Not your Greek yogurt with warmed fruit.

[Darren]

No, I was out to dinner.

[Dave]

All right, all right. That's pretty bold of you.

[CBS Sports Host]

Yeah, I'm.

[Dave]

I am mildly impressed.

[Darren]

What's up, Heath?

[CBS Sports Host]

I. I'm gonna try really hard to get into a better mood. Oh, I'm. I'm. It's grumpy. Heath, on Valentine's Day Eve, I received a. It's been a lot of things, you know, you ever have just, like, a streak of, like, people just keep kind of irritating you and things keep irritating you, and the straw that broke the camel's back was my HOA Sending me a letter telling me that my mailbox was too short.

[Dave]

What?

[CBS Sports Host]

I moved into this house 10 years ago. It had the same mailbox. I've lived here for 10 years. The mailbox has not shrunk, and now it's too short, so I have to go buy a new mailbox.

[Dave]

You know, shrinking mailboxes happen to a lot of houses, Heath.

[Darren]

Yeah. I think it's probably the mailman who's. Who's complaining.

[CBS Sports Host]

I'm really tempted to just, like, pull it out of the ground a little bit.

[Darren]

Yeah.

[CBS Sports Host]

And, like, so the concrete shows, but.

[Dave]

How much taller does it need to be?

[CBS Sports Host]

I'm trying to figure that out, because, oddly enough, there's no guidance on that in the letter.

[Heath]

You could give it some growth hormones.

[Darren]

Yes.

[Dave]

You should just tell them that you fixed it and then don't fix it.

[CBS Sports Host]

I was thinking about just putting a pole on top of it.

[Darren]

Insert mail below. Well, I'm sorry, Heath.

[Heath]

I hope you should put, like, a ruler next to it just to, like, make a point.

[CBS Sports Host]

I thought. I was thinking about just walking around the neighborhood for the day with a yardstick, measuring everyone's mailbox and making notes on a piece of paper. But I'm not actually.

[Dave]

Then you're doing this always job for.

[CBS Sports Host]

Them because I don't care at all. I just get irritable about it.

[Darren]

It's very strange. Yeah. I've never heard of this complaint before. But look, talking about players you love might help. So we will get into some fantasy Valentine's.

[Heath]

Got to get us back on track, Darren.

[Darren]

Yeah, there we go. Actually, you know what, I was gonna have Jamie go first, but I think Heath, you should go first with your fantasy valentines.

[CBS Sports Host]

Yeah. You know, I thought I threw in a little bit of from last year to this year, but my three fantasy Valentines are Chuba Hubbard, Juwan Jennings and Trey McBride. And Hubbard has just was the guy last year that we tried to replace with Jonathan Brooks. I don't know how many times this off season we said Hubbard's going to be great until Jonathan Brooks comes off of pup and then Jonathan Brooks is going to be even better. Well, Hubbard was better than we could have imagined. And when I went through my 2025 projections process, something we talked about quite a bit yesterday, I was surprised that Hubbard came out as a top 12 running back for the 2025 season. And that's with me not expecting Brooks is going to play. And really with what he did last year and what he's done the last two years when he's been given the opportunity, I don't know why we would expect anything else. I did draft him in our mock draft, maybe round four or five as my number one running back. Absolutely loved that value. Number two, McBride. He's partially my Valentine because he was so good last year and was my most drafted tight end. But also because again, I, I think you can make a really good case for Brock Bowers as a top 12 pick and Trey McBride as a top 18 pick just with difference in value that they're going to provide over the rest of the position, which is absolutely hot garbage. And I would expect that McBride is actually going to be a little bit better on a per game basis next year than he was this past year because the touchdown luck. And I know he didn't score that many touchdowns the year before either. He may not ever be a 10 touchdown guy, but he's certainly not going to be as unlucky as he was last year in terms of touchdowns. I wouldn't be surprised if he scores five or six, which gets him into that 16 fantasy point per game range. And Juwan Jennings is currently my favorite 49ers wide receiver in drafts.

[Darren]

Jennings is really interesting. And he went in round seven in the mock draft from a couple of days ago. And he went after Brandon Iuk, went after Jerry Judy, went after Ridley, went after Cooper Cup. So you got right in the middle of round seven, Juwan Jennings being drafted. And things look great for Juwan Jennings. I mean, he looked like a guy that was just stepping in. And remember week three, either deep. I think Debo was out in week three at 11 catches for 175 yards and three touchdowns on 12 targets at the Rams.

[Heath]

Kittle was also out.

[Darren]

Kittle was also out. Okay, down the stretch, though. I mean, Jennings really was, I think, pretty disappointing down the stretch. Look at, I'll take out week 18. He had seven catches for 52 yards on. On 10 targets in a half. Then he got ejected. But that was with Josh Dobbs. But you look at like, let's say weeks 12 through week 17. He was over 67 yards only once in those six games. He was over 56 yards only twice in those six games. I wonder what happened there. Cause like, before that he had 93 yards, 91 yards. I don't know. He kind of slumped down the stretch. I just remember being really, really high on him. And then 9 points, 8.6 points, 28 points, 5.1, 9.1, 13.7. And the 13.7 actually came like some of it was late in that Week 17 game against Detroit, which decided a lot of championships, when Purdy got hurt on the last drive. And then Josh Dobbs came in. Josh Dobbs loves Juwan Jennings. I'm just saying there wasn't a great Purdy to Juwan Jennings chemistry. I drafted him yesterday, so obviously like him, but I don't know what happened there at the end. Heath, sorry, that was a ramble.

[CBS Sports Host]

No, I. I just think that, like, he played at least 70% of the snaps in nine games last year. In those nine games, he had 56 catches for 694 yards and six touchdowns. That's like a top five fantasy wide receiver.

[Dave]

Yeah, it sounds good when you put it that way. But you've got to understand that, like, he had 46.5 PPR points in one game without Kittle and without Debo. And so that makes me a little bit nervous. He averaged 12.2 PPR points per game after that game all the way through the end of the season. And I wonder if that's the average. That's probably more representative of expectations. I Don't know what your per game PPR average is in your projections, Heath, but I wonder if 12.2 is kind of what we should think about for, for Juan Jenks. Maybe a little bit better than that because he'll be a full time player moving forward. But I, I don't know if he's. I think we really have to just kind of. Well, I don't want to say throw out that game against.

[CBS Sports Host]

I think if we're going to throw out his best game, we should probably throw out his worst. Like if what I would like, I'm.

[Dave]

Not going to get an amazing average.

[CBS Sports Host]

Fantasy points per game average of every player if you throw out their best game.

[Darren]

But. Okay, but, but here's the thing. It's one thing to throw out their best game. It's another thing to throw out their best game if it happened to come without Debo Samuel and George Kittle.

[CBS Sports Host]

Well, I, well, I think there's a good chance he's gonna be playing the beginning of next year without Debo Samuel and Brandon Iuk.

[Darren]

Yeah. And that's the thing. Like does, does Iuk. What does Iuk do to Juwan Jennings? Right, because that game, that week three game, that huge game that he had 46.5 fantasy points. Iuk did play in that game, by the way. He also. So, so he had four big games. He had four games with 90 or more yards and three of those games he had at least one touchdown. I guess I'd say he had three like huge games. Kittle missed two of those huge games for Jennings. Debo missed one of them. Ayuk missed two of them. So that's always the thing with San Francisco is we're always sitting here calculating with, without these guys and the guys get hurt every year and Debo's gonna probably get traded. Also McCaffrey didn't play all but three games last year, two and a half games. So yeah, I, it's, I don't want to just say, oh, we're taking away his best game. I think we're recognizing that Juwan Jennings did a lot of his best work without George Kittle on the field. I think that's kind of the point here.

[Heath]

Well, I, I think just looking at the situation here, you're going to get one of the top receivers on one of the top offenses at a pretty good cost. And we talked about this yesterday that, you know, the way that this draft unfolded, it was Brandon Ayuk at the start of round seven, Jennings in the middle around seven and then Ricky Piercel went in round nine. Nine. And so Heath and I think both agreed on this. I don't know where Dave came out on it, but like we, we both said that we're going to get a lot or try and get a lot of Jennings and Pearsall while other people are maybe chasing Ayuk still because of hopefully he's back ready to go. But just looking at, you know, injured receiver and just the cost of these other guys where they should end up.

[Dave]

Agreed.

[Darren]

And Kittle was in round five, so he went before.

[Dave]

That's going to be your first 49ers pass catcher to go off the board.

[Darren]

All right, so Heath has Chuba Hubbard who went in round four, Juwan Jennings went in round seven, we just mentioned and Trey McBride who went in round two, three picks after Brock Bowers. All right, Heath, I also know another thing you love that would be fft Dynasty new episode tomorrow. Give us a little promo.

[CBS Sports Host]

Yeah, we let's talk about what we talked about earlier this week. We had Dan on on Tuesday. We discussed some rankings risers and fallers. We've got Dynasty rankings coming up in the future. We've got a lot of emails. So keep sending your emails in because there's another mailbag coming very soon. And we will get a rookie mock. We've got some, I've got some feelers out to some other Dynasty analysts around the industry to talk about this rookie class for the first time on the show.

[Darren]

Excellent. All right. We're going to take a break. We're going to come back and talk about some young wide receivers on Jamie's Valentine's Day list. And I've already broken up with one of my Valentine's. We'll find out about that and also hear from Dave. And we'll be right back on Fantasy football today.

[Gold Belly Representative]

Hey, guys, have you heard of Gold Belly? It's this amazing site where they ship the most iconic famous foods from restaurants across the country anywhere nationwide. I've never found a more perfect gift than food. They ship Chicago deep dish pizza, New York bagels, Maine lobster rolls and even Ina Garten's famous cakes. So if you're looking for a gift for the food lover in your Life, head to goldbelly.com and get 20% off your first order with promo code gift.

[Darren]

Wow.

[Heath]

What's up?

[CBS Sports Host]

I just bought and financed a car.

[Darren]

Through Carvana in minutes.

[Carvana Representative]

You, the person who agonized four weeks.

[Darren]

Over whether to paint your walls eggshell or off white, bought and financed a car in minutes.

[CBS Sports Host]

They made it easy, transparent terms Customizable down and monthly. Didn't even have to do any paperwork.

[Dave]

Wow.

[CBS Sports Host]

Hey, have you checked out that spreadsheet I sent you for our dinner?

[Darren]

Options finance your car with Garvana and.

[Nourish Representative]

Experience total control financing subject to credit approval.

[Darren]

Are you guys doing anything for Valentine's Day? Buying flowers? It's pretty much not a holiday for me.

[Dave]

Oh, look, what a lucky wife you've got.

[Darren]

I guess I might get her something, but I don't know. Jamie said no.

[CBS Sports Host]

This is the reason you think his wife's unlucky?

[Darren]

That's not nice. Oh, man. I don't like grumpy Heath. I'm a very good husband. Yeah, I don't know.

[CBS Sports Host]

No, I.

[Darren]

No, thank you.

[CBS Sports Host]

I agree with you.

[Dave]

Yeah, I mean, we're gonna go out to a nice dinner.

[CBS Sports Host]

You are.

[Dave]

She's gonna watch me drink tequila and eat her bone in ribeye.

[Darren]

What a lucky lady. All right, Jamie, who's on your Valentine's Day list?

[Heath]

Well, I guess you teased the young receiver. So Romo Dunes a and Jalen McMillan would be two of the. Would be the two young receivers. I also have a young running back and Isaac Arendo. But we'll start with Odunze because it's easy to just make the case for him, assuming Keenan Allen's gone. But even if Alan's there, you know, the. The opportunity that he has now. Year two with Ben Johnson, now the play caller, hopefully better offensive line, a better Caleb Williams. I was very excited to draft him yesterday. I think it was in round seven. I'm not mistaken for. For Odunze. So let me confirm that.

[Darren]

Yeah, Round six, just before all those wide receivers, Iuk and Judy Ridley Cup, Jennings, you took Odunze.

[Heath]

Yeah. So just looking at the upside again, you know, was drafted to be a. A premier talent, possibly their heir apparent to the number one receiver. As soon as DJ Moore maybe hangs things up or moves on. But should be a. Hopefully a one and one A situation. Amore and Odunze. And, you know, if you're just looking at the, you know, Lions offense going to Chicago, hopefully he could be the Jameson Williams. I think he'll be a little bit different. He's not as fast, he's not as explosive, but he has a chance to be, you know, an explosive type of player. And so just a huge opportunity in front of him. Especially, again, if Keenan Allen is gone. Then you look at Jalen McMillan, as we saw at the end of last season, with no Chris Godwin has an opportunity, I guess. I like the Washington receivers, but McMillan and his role when Godwin was not there and he was finally healthy just became a touchdown magnet for Baker Mayfield. And I think there's more that he has to offer as well. So we have a situation here. If Godwin's back, I'm not going to be as excited as about McMillan, but if Godwin's gone, this guy's got the potential to be a top 30 receiver going into the year and maybe a top 20 receiver by the end of the season. Especially Mike Evans, who will be 32, Mrs. Time again. You know, that was the opportunity that I thought initially when we saw that Week 7 situation when both Evans and Godwin went down, I thought, okay, this is the time that Jalen McMillan could step up. He suffered injuries himself, but he closed the season as an absolute monster. And hopefully that carries over to year two. And then in terms of Isaac Arundo, I'm. I'm curious to see how the 49ers will treat their entire backfield. They almost always draft a guy on day three to, you know, add to their. To supplement their backfield there. But Isaac Arando, I think, in my opinion, will be better than Jordan Mason. As soon as Mason comes back, he's a restricted free agent. But the guys behind McCaffrey, I think, Adam, you did this in the draft. You drafted Jordan Mason and Garendo. It's something I've done quite a bit in our mock draft so far, just taking a chance on both those guys. We'll see how it shakes out now, hopefully get a little bit more clarity by the time we get to August. But I think Orendo will end up being the backup to McCaffrey. And for what we saw this year from McCaffrey and the spurts for Garendo, an explosive running back, hopefully a little bit more in the passing game than he showed last year, but I think he could be a potential league winner again if McCaffrey misses anytime.

[Dave]

What rounds did they go in? Mason and Garendo?

[Darren]

Mason went in round nine, Garendo in round 11.

[Dave]

That's pretty. That's good.

[Darren]

Thank you.

[Dave]

Easy dart throws late in the draft for high upside running backs behind one of the most interesting players that we'll take this year. And Garendo averaged it. He had four games this year where he played 50 of the snaps or more. He averaged almost 18 PPR points in those games. Had three and a half targets per game.

[Darren]

Yeah.

[Dave]

The only downside to Garendo and Dynasty leaguers. Cover your ears. He's 25, so short of that, he's somebody that absolutely fits into that offense and could be pretty good. If something were to happen to McCaffrey.

[Darren]

They did not throw to Jordan Mason. He never had more than three targets in a game. He usually had one or two Garendo they were more willing to throw to. By the way McCaffrey man. Who third pick of the second round Thomas Schaefer. Steal of the draft. Well done. And yeah, I just wrote an article. Best pick of the draft was McCaffrey. I want to talk about Odunze here and I think I gave this stat probably when they hired Ben Johnson. Yards per route run do we. Do we kind of feel is that the best stat to evaluate wide receivers? You don't really see great. Like if you look at the leaders and yards per route run. I mean it is the studs. Does anybody feel that way? Like if you're going to look at one stat for wide receivers yards per outrun might be the is the one. I would say. I would say if I were going to be one it would be that one.

[CBS Sports Host]

You are comparing full time players to full time players. I would say that's fine.

[Darren]

Yeah. Yeah. I always try to do like 50 or more targets for a season so.

[CBS Sports Host]

I'd probably want more than that.

[Darren]

Fair. Over the last 10 seasons, Roma Dunes a he averaged 1.18 yards per out run. That ranks 84th out of 96 rookies who had 50 or more targets over the last 10 seasons. He was horrible on a per route basis. None of the players who have who averaged less than 1.8 yards per out run ended up being great. The only one that was even close was Sterling Shepherd. Now Quentin Johnston is also on this list. I guess the you know, future we don't know but I mean he was awful on a per route basis. The reason I don't care is because Keenan Allen and DJ Moore both had the lowest yards per route run of their careers. So that's how bad the Bears passing game was. So I just think that they all need perspective. They had really bad years in terms of yards per out running. Career lows for DJ Moore and Keenan Allen obviously career low for Roman dz but he was horrible. But how willing are you guys to overlook what was honestly a pretty bad rookie year for for Romo Dunze?

[Heath]

Very willing to overlook it.

[Dave]

Round five Willing?

[Heath]

No. But I don't have to take him that early. If somebody does, then let them have him.

[Darren]

Okay.

[Dave]

But I mean I'm just trying to get a beat on on what would be the round that you'd get him?

[Heath]

No, no. I mean I took him around 6 just looking at the receivers that were in front of him and behind him. So it was after Keon Coleman, which you can make a case was probably too soon. Jaden Reed, Devonte Adams, those are the guys that went in round six and I took him ahead of Ayuk. I took Judy again. So they'll probably be somewhat comparable. Calvin Ridley like this is the range. If you're taking somebody based on upside, I think you have to sort of pull the trigger.

[Darren]

It's funny you bring up Jaden Reed because Jaden Reed is a stud in yards per outrun. I just want to. Over the last two years, Jaden Reed's career and this is a little bit of a tangent. Jaden Reese career Let me read. Over the last two years, the top 15 players in yards per outrun wide receivers with 50 or more targets over the last two years. I mean you can forget about its targets. It's just, it's a lot. It's. This is the list. Nico Collins, Puka nakua, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Jefferson Iuk Lamb, Rashid Rice, St Brown, Brian Thomas, Lad McConkey, Mike Evans, Jamar Chase, Malik Neighbors. Jaden Reed is 15. He's right behind that list. And then it's like Jaden Reed, Drake London, George Pickens, Chris Olave, Jalen Waddle. So it's weird. Jaden Reed is the beginning of the non studs. The 14 guys ahead of him in yards per route run over the last two seasons are all studs. Basically we're going to put.

[CBS Sports Host]

What did you say Roman Dunes was last year?

[Darren]

1.18. Okay, like, like Nico Collins had a really bad.

[CBS Sports Host]

A little worse than Jackson Smith and.

[Darren]

Jigba and Nico Collins was like 1.21 or something like that. But it took him until year three to break out. So this is not a death sentence. But it's bad.

[CBS Sports Host]

Like I think it's important when you're looking at stats like that to say who was not necessarily who was worse but who was in his range. Like however you want to define the range, within 10 points, within 15 points. Because if you've got Nico Collins and Jackson Smith and Jigba in the neighborhood, then that makes it sound a lot better than no one was good. Who was worse than him?

[Darren]

I don't know. See, I don't even know the answer to this but Jackson Smith and jigba average 1.32 yards per out run as a rookie and romo Dunes average 1.18. Is, is that in the neighborhood or is that a big gap? I'm not really sure.

[Heath]

What does the HOA say?

[CBS Sports Host]

I would. I would say it's. It's definitely depends, like who's measuring, but I would say it's 100% in the neighborhood. Yes.

[Darren]

All right, we're going to get some more Valentine's. We had Odunze McMillan and Isaac Arando. If you haven't signed up for BETMGM yet, now's the time to do this with the promo code Fantasy. And you're going to get up to a 1500 dollars first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. So here's how it works. You download the BetMGM app and you sign up and use the bonus code Fantasy. Deposit at least $10 and place your first wager on any game and you'll receive up to fifteen hundred dollars in bonus bets if your bet loses. Just make sure that you use the bonus code fantasy when you sign up. All right, Dave, who are you having tequila and steak with in fantasy football?

[Dave]

Oh, how nice. Malik Neighbors headlines the list for me along with the aforementioned Jackson Smith and Jigba and DJ Moore. And we talked a lot about DJ Moore yesterday, Adam. You weren't around. We can rehash that if you want to, but I'm, I'm optimistic that he can keep up the type of volume that we saw last season, hopefully with a better A dot and that'll just lead to better fantasy production as as much fun and as much upside as a Dunes A has. I still think DJ Moore should go ahead of him in drafts at this point. Neighbors led the NFL in targets per game last year, and something that stood out to me was that only 19 of his targets were uncatchable. You think about how terrible those quarterbacks were, and yet still not even 20% of the targets were uncatchable. That's a little startling. And that might make people say, well, so he can't be better than he was last year. Well, who cares? He averaged 18.2 PPR points per game last year. The only thing that could slow him down is if the Giants make a huge splash at wide receiver and they don't do bupkis at quarterback and they bring back DeVito and whatever. And that just waters down the type of targets per game that Malik Neighbors gets. I think Neighbors is a first round pick. I don't think that that's crazy. Might even be top half of first round, good in full PPR. And then with JSN, he averaged 1.8 yards per route run. Adam, I thought you'd be interested in that. But more importantly, from from week eight on, once DK Metcalf got hurt 17.7 PPR points per game in eight games when he saw at least seven targets and DK Metcalf played so those two qualifiers, seven targets or more. DK Metcalf on the field. He averaged 18 PPR points per game in 10 games with seven or more targets regardless of who was on the field. Jackson, Smith and Jigba averaged 19.3 ppr points per game. Where I think we're getting an offensive coordinator upgrade. With Clint Kubiak going to Seattle, he'll be in charge. I don't love that it's still going to be Geno Smith at quarterback, but I do think that Tyler Lockett's days are numbered there. I'm hoping they do not make a big splash of wide receiver to replace Tyler Lockett and JSN finally ascends to being the number one guy in the Seattle passing game. He will most likely open up in my rankings as a top 15 receiver in full PPR, significantly lower in half and non PPR, but somebody who could absolutely crush week after week.

[Darren]

Smith and Jigba was only wide receiver 22 per game, which was surprising in the. I want to say eight games. Yeah. Eight games after DK Metcalf returned last eight games of the season, he had two horrible games to finish the year where he scored 6.2 fantasy points at Chicago and 5.3 fantasy points at the Rams. Before that, he was. He was probably a top five receiver. That's like how bad those two games were. In fact, I'll tell you right now. Yeah. So JSN, you took him as wide receiver 20, 41st overall in the draft that we just did.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Darren]

Yeah.

[Dave]

So I almost took him in round three. I was thrilled when he made it back to me in round four.

[Darren]

Okay. He was like. He was like ninth per game from weeks 11 through 16 and then he stunk in the last two games. I'm not sure what that was all about. DJ Moore went four picks after JSN. Who do you guys like better? JSN or DJ Moore?

[CBS Sports Host]

Jason DJ Moore. I. I am. I'm a little bit concerned by this run. Run the ball or run the damn ball. They may have said mentality in Seattle. Like, I think we're going to get a significant, significant reduction and total pass attempts for them next year. I still like JS. Like round 4 is wide receiver 20. Love it. But I, I'M not. I'm not. Might be more efficiency from jsn, but a lot less volume.

[Darren]

Yeah, it's interesting because I think he. Do you remember Jamie? If he made any top 12s, he was one of those guys that was right there for me. I can't remember if he was 12th or not. I think he just missed the cut. I'll check, but I think probably, you know, probably some people considered him at least for a top 12 wide receiver just right at the end.

[Dave]

And to be fair, for Heath, he was 13. Seattle was fifth in pass rate last year, 63%. First year without Pete Carroll there, it's, I, I don't think it was ever that high in any of the years Pete Carroll coached the Seahawks.

[Darren]

Yeah, I'll probably talk about this a thousand times between now and August, but 78, slot rate, 77, something like that.

[Dave]

Yeah. I don't think that's changing.

[Darren]

Ludicrous. I don't know that we've had a top 12. No, I, I, it doesn't happen. It's just too high. So that would probably cap his upside, but let's get him outside a little bit more. That'd be. Even if we were like 70, that'd be great. All right, so for Jamie or for teeth, we started with Heath, Chuba Hubbard, Juwan Jennings and Trey McBride. For Jamie Odunze, McMillan and Garendo. For Dave Malik, neighbors Jackson Smith and Jigba and DJ Moore.

[Heath]

JSN did not make anybody's top 12.

[Darren]

Okay. He was the guy who just missed the cut for me, but might have to reevaluate. I don't know. All right, so who are my Valentine's. I already broke up with one of them. Find out who after this on fft.

[Carvana Representative]

Ready to level up? Jumbo Casino is your playbook to fun. It's free to play with no purchase necessary. Enjoy hundreds of casino style games like bingo, slots and solitaire anytime, anywhere. With fresh releases every week. Whether you're at home or on the go, let Chumba Casino bring the excitement to you. Plus, get free daily login bonuses and a free welcome bonus. Join now for your chance to redeem some serious prizes. Play Chumba Casino today. No purchase necessary VGW group void were prohibited by law 18 TNC supply this.

[Lifelock Representative]

Episode is brought to you by Lifelock. During tax season, your personal info travels to a lot of places. Between payroll, your tax consultant and the IRS. If your W2 gets exposed, that's just the ticket for identity thieves. That's why Lifelock monitors millions of data Points every second. If your identity is stolen, they'll fix it, guaranteed or your money back. Don't let identity thieves take you for a ride. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com podcast terms apply.

[Darren]

Welcome back. You know, someone asked me, what are you doing this weekend? I was like, don't have any football to watch. What the heck am I going to do? It's very strange. Seriously, so sad. There are other. Are there other football leagues that are starting?

[Dave]

Yeah, the UFL start up soon.

[Darren]

Okay.

[Heath]

Just watch SEC basketball. You'll be happy.

[Darren]

Oh, yeah, it's not gonna happen. I started watching Love on Netflix. It's like five years old. It's pretty good. Anybody seen that one? Love. Judd Apatow. It's good. What's going on, guys? I missed you.

[Heath]

Just so again, we're clear. You're watching a show called Love and you still haven't seen the Sopranos.

[Darren]

I was thinking of starting. It's such a commitment. It's such a commitment. Like that's months probably.

[Heath]

It'll be worth it for you.

[Darren]

Yeah, I figured. How's everybody doing? How's everybody feeling? No one wants to talk. No one wants to just.

[CBS Sports Host]

I think I pretty much my. My feelings earlier on the show. I think somebody. Somebody else's turn.

[Darren]

I have a question, Heath. Which holiday are you more likely to celebrate? Valentine's Day or Halloween?

[CBS Sports Host]

See, I think like you get right, neither one of them are actually a holiday. But you get my Halloween thing wrong. Like, I still celebrate.

[Darren]

No. Yeah.

[CBS Sports Host]

I just don't pass out candy.

[Darren]

It's very selfish celebrating, I'd say.

[CBS Sports Host]

I know because I don't want to celebrate at all. But my wife asked me to dress up and. And go to a party. I do that. Like we've passed out candy before, but it's just. It's a terrible holiday.

[Darren]

You know, you should do with the candy. You should put it in your mailbox, see if anybody even sees it.

[CBS Sports Host]

That'd be a great time for the kids because it's so short.

[Darren]

All right. My Valentine's, Josh Jacobs and Chase Brown. And I had Romeo Dobbs on here, but I broke up with him. But let's start with the running backs. Jacobs went in the second round. I just feel like he's pretty safe. He was the number six running back per game last year. He only had 36 catches, but the packers were actually the third most run heavy team. They had the third fewest pass attempts in the NFL last year ahead of Philadelphia and Baltimore. So I think they'll probably throw more either way. I mean, he's just. He's just their guy. I like Marshawn Lloyd, but it was a nothing rookie season. He doesn't really seem to have any major competition. So I think that you're going to talk about a top 10 offense. They're usually around 10th in scoring. They've had only one year where they've been elite in scoring. They were eighth this past year. And you've got a workhorse running back. He's pretty safe. And he was RB8, 21st overall in yesterday's draft. So Josh Jacobs is a Valentine of mine. I really like the packers offense and there's a lot of opportunity, which is why I originally had Romeo Dobbs, but then I broke up with him. But go to Chase Brown here. I mean, the Cincinnati offense, in the first eight games of the year before Zach Moss got hurt, they averaged 23.3 points per game. That was 12th best in that stretch. They were 13th in yards per play after Zach Moss got hurt and Chase Brown took over. I'm not saying this is the only reason, but after the Zach Moss injury, they averaged 30.5 points per game. They averaged a full touchdown more per game on offense, not including any defensive scores. And they averaged six yards per play, which was six best in the NFL. They were so much better as soon as they made Chase Brown their lead running back. From weeks nine through 17, he was RB5 per game and half PPR, RB3 per game in full PPR. And that was with only six rushing touchdowns, or only three rushing touchdowns. On pace for six rushing touchdowns, but also on pace for six receiving touchdowns, which is a little bit fluky. But anyway, I just. You know how I felt about Joe Mixon. I never thought he was all that great with the Bengals, but he always finished as a top 12 running back per game. And I don't see any reason why Chase Brown wouldn't. He went in the third round of this draft. I consider taking him in the first round. I think it's probably a mistake. They'll add somebody, but I don't think they need to add anybody significant. He's proven himself. And then there's Romeo Dobbs. And the point here is that I'm gonna fall in love with some packers pass catcher. I thought it'd be Dobbs, but I. Because he goes kind of late. Like, obviously, I'd rather have Jaden Reed, but he goes late. Romeo Dobbs rounded. He go. And I think like the 12th round in the draft we did yesterday. Yeah, I Took him with the seventh pick of the 12th round. I think he's fine there but just looking at his game log, looking at his stats, he's just not that good. It's just that simple. I think Wicks is probably better if he could catch the ball. I think I just don't see a ceiling for dogs.

[CBS Sports Host]

Is probably better if he could catch the ball.

[Darren]

Yeah, if he. I like Wicks is explosive. Dobbs is not somebody's. You know my, the might. My valentine might be Tucker Kraft. I've talked about this like his, his per route. That is great but some. I always love Christian Watson. I don't expect much of anything from Watson next year. Someone's going to step up Dobbs. I think Dobbs has a ceiling as like someone's going to step up and.

[CBS Sports Host]

Take the 55 targets that like there's just that they're not. Matt LaFleur hates the idea of a number one wide receiver. And if they go, if they actually have a number one wide receiver this year, it'll be because they go get.

[Darren]

One then I'll love that guy.

[Dave]

Yeah, but what if it's Devonte Adams?

[CBS Sports Host]

The real interesting question with Josh Jacobs and I think it's directly relates to Jordan Love and maybe the packers pass catchers. Two years ago when Jordan Love was so good for fantasy, they scored 42 touchdowns, 32 of them in the air, 10 of them on the ground. Last year they actually scored 51 touchdowns. Jordan Love was worse because they had 23 rushing touchdowns. Yeah, well like just the way that they, they and Jacob Gibbs talked about this a lot going into last year they'd been a very pass heavy team in the red Z and really just kind of flip that.

[Darren]

Yeah, well they had no passing game. Yeah. So I mean they, they definitely same players.

[Heath]

You wonder how much though, how much did Jordan loves injuries play a role in this? You know once, once he got hurt and the run game got going and they were having success winning that way. Like did they need to switch back to maybe a little bit more balance or a little bit more pass heavy situation? Like at what point was he finally back to himself and then just was Josh Jacobs rolling enough that they didn't need to change anything?

[Darren]

Wasn't it Jacobs that just said Wasn't Jacobs that just said they need to get a number one wide receiver?

[Heath]

Yeah, he's a new general manager.

[Dave]

Right.

[Darren]

Good joke.

[Dave]

I think the whole reason why they got Josh Jacobs was so that they could run it in the red zone.

[Darren]

Yeah. Well look, here's the Thing about Jacobs, I mean based on last year, you could make the case that he's a first round pick, but I don't, I wouldn't do that. I just think he's a very solid, safe second round pick. He went late in the second round. I think that's a perfect spot for him. I don't see a lot of downside with Josh Jacobs. I see your point, Heath, about not liking a Packers wide receiver, but the cost is pretty low. Dobbs in the 12th round. Reed went in the sixth round, which I think it might, might be early, but I know he's good. They just have to get him on the field more. You know, he needs to play more that I would like for them to commit to maybe playing him on the outside a little bit more. So he's interesting. I think Wix could, you know, Wicks and round Wix went before Dobbs. I think whatever.

[CBS Sports Host]

I just think we had this talk with the Chiefs a couple of years ago and yard per route run data and how useful is that if they just only play the guys when they're going to throw the ball to them or if they only use them on the three or four types of routes that they're actually good at and they're not full time players. I think if jaden Reed played 85% of the snaps, 90% of the snaps, he probably wouldn't be on the yards per route run leaderboard.

[Darren]

I don't know. I mean he's pretty, he's very talented, you know, and he makes big plays, but it's possible. It's not like he. What does he play usually? I don't even. What's his snap?

[Dave]

I think he's like in that 55 to 65 range. I'll look it up right now.

[Darren]

All right. Yeah, I'm not saying he'd keep up that kind of efficiency, but he's obviously an explosive player in his three playoff.

[CBS Sports Host]

Games last two years, 48, 61%, 55%.

[Dave]

No, I'm way. No, I'm looking at the wrong thing.

[CBS Sports Host]

He had a couple 70s last year, but a lot of 50s.

[Darren]

Okay, so what about Tucker Craft then? Can be no beef with Tucker craft. He was second among 31 tight ends with 50 or more targets and yards per target. 9.1 yards after the catch per reception. That's insane. With a low a dot but still a very good. And yeah, he's a guy that I think is a if tight end so bad if you don't get one of the top two. I'm If I were drafting right now, my strategy would probably be just wait for Tucker Craft.

[Dave]

You sound like me from Wednesday show. It's exactly what I ended up doing in, in the draft that we just finished earlier this week. Five games for Jayden Reed where he played 70 of the snaps or more. Another three games after that with 60 or more.

[CBS Sports Host]

Okay, I, I would say Tucker Craft, if you can get him in the double digit rounds and you're happy with 10 fantasy points per game, that's like.

[Dave]

I. Yeah, that's starting fantasy.

[CBS Sports Host]

Right. Do we have any reason to believe that his voice, like he's not probably going to be somebody that we draft him late and he turns into a top five tight end? I wouldn't think.

[Darren]

Yeah. Unless he just has a, like a. Eight touchdowns or something. But. Yeah, well, he had seven last year, so it's going to need more than that.

[Dave]

Yeah, it's. Some of it's based on coach speak right now and how immediately after the season lafleur was talking him up as somebody who could be their version of Kittle or Kelsey in the offense. That seems like a stretch, but I, I think he could do a little bit better than 10 points per game. Maybe like 10 and a half. Maybe touches 11 because he's, he's got a role that should be on the field all the time. I think he's their number one tight end. I think he proved that last year and just, you know, he was pretty close to it last year. 9.6.

[CBS Sports Host]

But like yesterday's draft, we got George Kittle in round five and Najoku in round eight.

[Dave]

Yeah, I mean, I'd rather have those guys. Sure.

[CBS Sports Host]

Right.

[Dave]

But if I miss on them, the whole point, the whole point isn't to target Tucker Kraft. He's the fallback option.

[Heath]

He's this year's Jake Ferguson.

[Dave]

Yeah, this year Jake Ferguson. Hopefully not with Jake Ferguson.

[Darren]

By the way, Kittle, I mean with, with the state of the 49ers wide receivers, IU coming off a torn knee and Debo on his way out. Maybe Kittle should not. Maybe Kittle should be around three pick or something like that. I don't know that he'll ever get that high, but. Yeah. How many tight ends had more than eight touchdown catches last year?

[Heath]

Andrews and Kettle, half right.

[Darren]

Andrews and Andrews. Just, just Mark Andrews. Kittle had eight. John who had eight, Andrews had 11 and that was it. All right, that. Well, anything else, guys?

[Heath]

I think we covered the Packers.

[Darren]

Yeah, I would say so.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Darren]

Do you guys want to hear some.

[Heath]

Devonte Adams stats, they're very Valentine's heavy, though. Love Romeo Craft. Crafty people.

[Darren]

Yeah, crafting like Valentine's Day things.

[Dave]

I was thinking more of cheese being a delicious romantic food.

[Darren]

Last 11 games of the year for the new year was it.

[Heath]

Wix could catch. He'd be great.

[Darren]

Last 11 games for the jets after the Devonte Adams trademark. Devonte Adams was on pace for 176 targets. Garrett Wilson 134 targets. Devonte Adams was on pace for 104 catches, 1320 yards and 11 touchdowns. Garrett Wilson 93 catches, 1090 yards, 6 touchdowns. Wilson had 11 red zone targets. Adams had 21. Wilson had 5 green zone targets. Adams had 13. Wilson had 7 end zone targets. Adams had 13 end zone targets. I just thought it was interesting with Rogers on the way out, maybe Adams on the way out, but if they end up together, those two, you're gonna get a lot of targets for Devonte Adams.

[CBS Sports Host]

Well, he's just. Is Rogers on the way out or is he just going to the other side of the building?

[Dave]

They don't. Oh, you mean the stadium that they play in?

[CBS Sports Host]

Yeah, yeah.

[Darren]

Oh, you think he's going to the Giants?

[CBS Sports Host]

That's what Dan said on fft Dynasty. He's hoping for it.

[Darren]

Yeah, whatever.

[CBS Sports Host]

Then they can bring Devonte Adams in and lick Neighbors can have 112 targets next year, Right?

[Darren]

Exactly.

[Heath]

Wow.

[Darren]

Just something to think about. Also, if to go look at Aaron Rodgers. 2022 and 2024 numbers are almost identical. Last year with the packers and this year with the Jets. Just very eerily similar. And that's it for me. Happy Valentine's Day, everybody. Dave Heath, Jamie, hope you have a wonderful weekend. We will talk to you all on Monday. Make sure you check out fantasy football team today. Dynasty. And we're about to do FFT Express. So we'll see you there. Have a good weekend, everybody. We love you.

[Paramount Podcast Host]

Paramount podcasts Miami Metro catches killers and they say it takes a village to race one.

[Darren]

If anyone knows how powerful urges can be, it's me.

[Paramount Podcast Host]

Catch Dexter Morgan in a new serial killer origin story. Hunger inside of you. It needs a master. Featuring Patrick Gibson, Christian Slater. Special guest star Sarah Michelle Geller. With Patrick Deny and Michael C. Hall as Dexter's inner voice. I wasn't born a killer. I was made Dexter Original sin New series now streaming on the Paramount plus with Showtime plan. Go to paramountplus.com to try it. Free terms apply.