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Fantasy WR Reset: Big Moves for Moore, Burden, Pittman & More! (03/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)
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- [00:00]
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- [01:59]
Jamie Eisenberg
Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Express. We're talking about the state of wide receivers following free agency. I'm Jamie Eisenberg, that's Dave Richard and we a lot of fun wide receivers to talk about. All right Dave, let's talk about some of the moves that happen and some of the wide receiving pours that have changed. And we talked about This a little bit on our full length episode on Wednesday in regards to Tampa Bay and San Francisco and some of the changes that may now happen for both of those teams with Mike Evans leaving. So we'll start with the Bucks. You had a Mecca Buka as a wide receiver riser, I believe you said he's wide receiver 15 for you, is that right?
- [02:37]
Dave Richard
That's it.
- [02:38]
Jamie Eisenberg
And he says I'm at wide receiver 19. I think he's like 13 or 14 for me. Very excited about him. But just break down the the Bucks receiving core with what their top three guys and where you anticipate them getting drafted. A Booka, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan.
- [02:52]
Dave Richard
Early round pick, middle round pick, late round pick. I think a Buka will be the leader as far as targets go in this Tampa offense. Godwin will be maybe a target and a half per game behind him and then McMillan another target and a half behind Chris Godwin. But they're all going to play a lot. I think those are going to be the primary three for Tampa Bay. I think this is still going to be a team that throws the ball around a lot and I think that all three of them, while they're all talented in their own right, will see a Mecca Buca take a step forward in his second year. Got off to such a great start last year and then injuries to Baker, injuries to Buka. I think those things really affected the entire offense in Tampa as a whole this year. If they're healthy, if the offensive line's healthy and that defense doesn't play to expectations, it could force Tampa to be a very pass heavy offense. And I'm going to want pieces of that offense. Abuka chief among them is people that I want to target for my fantasy squad.
- [03:44]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I think Adam asked a great question when we were reviewing the mock draft. Would you rather have a Buka in round four or Godwin in round six? We all said a Buka, but yep, feels like a good spot for Godwin as well. And then Jalen McMillan I think is going to be very much an afterthought we saw in that 2024 season, his rookie campaign end of the year after Godwin suffered the ankle injury, Evans was coming back from his hamstring injury. McMillan was an absolute stud and so, you know, again just opening up opportunities for him. The wild card in all this now is they have, you know, what might be an upgrade in terms of a pass catching running back and Kenneth Gainwell. So we'll see how that changes things for what Baker does And obviously Zach Robinson who gave his running back 100 plus targets last year with Bijan, but obviously the arrow pointing up for both of the top two guys and maybe even McMillan as well. Really excited about Tampa Bay's pass catching group there and in San Francisco. So we don't know where Juwan Jennings going to end up. We are anticipating Brandon Ayuk ending up somewhere else as well. But Mike Evans, the new guy there. They also add Christian Kirk. Ricky Pearsall is still there. How do you view the San Francisco 49ers receiving core after free agency?
- [04:48]
Dave Richard
As much as I love Ricky Pearsall, there's no way I can draft him as the first 49ers wide receiver. It's Mike Evans and really what a great spot for him at least to begin the season because we don't expect George Kittle to play. You brought up all the question marks that we have in the 49ers passing game. Well, if Evans is healthy and ready to go week one, he should be the top target to begin the season and maybe even carry it throughout the entire season. It's such a good fit for him out there in Kyle Shannon's offense. He's looking for precise route runners, especially guys who, yeah, they can win downfield, but if they can cut and break in on routes and have that timing down with Brock Purdy, they're going to earn a lot of targets. And Mike Evans has been so good at that over the course of his career and it's still something he's good at even at his age. You worry about the injuries with Mike Evans and that's a fair point to concern yourself with. But the touchdowns have always been a big part of Mike Evans game and I think as long as Kittle is sidelined, Evans will be the one dominating those end zone targets for San Francisco. And I kind of can't help myself. I view him as a number two wide receiver all over again and maybe I've got him ranked too low. Jamie, I'm looking at it right now. He's at like 22 for me and maybe he should be even higher than that. Maybe he should be inside the top 20. Just completely forgetting about the injury concerns and focusing on how talented of a receiver he'll be and the opportunity that's there for him not only in the first half of the year but maybe to carry it all year long.
- [06:13]
Jamie Eisenberg
He's 23rd for me now, so I'm in a similar range. I think once you start to look at, you know, that wide receiver, you know Basically almost past the Buka, you know that whole group of of wide receivers where the next couple of guys we'll talk about DJ Moore and the Chicago guys come into play as well. It's just a matter of how much do you trust Mike Evans staying healthy. He's missed time each of the last two seasons. He's going to be a year older now. He's going to a new team, new quarterback again and there are plenty of mouths to feed there when everybody is healthy because you got to hope that McCaffrey stays healthy. You have to wait for Kittle to come back on the field. You have Pearsall who has a very difficult time staying healthy and the addition of Christian Kirk. I think Pierce all is going to end up being a very good value pick based on where he'll go now because I think as you said, you know most people are going to take Mike Evans first as they should and Piercel is going to be a little bit of an afterthought but still plenty of upside. And the guy right now, assuming Kittle's going to miss the start of the season, the best rapport with Brock Purdy. And I don't think you should forget about Christian Kirk as well. You know we've seen him have some good moments. Clearly most of that came during his beginning stages of, of his Jacksonville career. But I, I think when you look at it as can he have success as the third option here? Probably a couple weeks and especially if, if Kittle's not going to be healthy, could make some plays and be a good late round flyer as well. All right, we take a quick break here on FFT Express. When we come back, get into the Bills new edition. The Chicago benefits from DJ Moore leaving. That's next year on Fantasy Football Tech Express.
- [07:41]
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- [08:47]
Jamie Eisenberg
All right, Dave. So DJ Moore goes to Buffalo, opens the door for Luther Burden and Romo Dunze. Colton Loveland as well. But we're talking wide receivers. Of the three main wide receivers here, DJ Moore, Luther Burden, Romo Dunze, they're not teammates anymore. At least one of them. How do you rank those three wide receivers?
- [09:04]
Dave Richard
They're. We're going to start with Burden as the low end, number two wide receiver of this group, followed closely by Odunze and then more. They're all within five spots of each other, kind of on that fence of low end number two, high end, number three, fantasy wide receiver.
- [09:21]
Jamie Eisenberg
I like more slightly ahead of Burden. So, you know, we. You said you have Evans 22, I have Evans 23. 21 for me is more. 22 for me is burden 23 is. Is Evans. I. I'm just hopeful. The return to Joe Brady. Playing with Josh Allen, DJ Moore gets a little bit rejuvenated. He's only 29, so it's not like he's, you know, past his prime. I think we all look at him as sort of old. He's been around for a long time. But I. I think there's an opportunity here for him to, you know, maybe have one of the best years, if not the best year of his career. If the Bills do throw the ball a little bit more, Burden can easily be the best. I mean, we saw plenty of upside from him in a very small sample size when Odunze was dealing with the foot injury to love that situation. And then Odunze was so good at the start of the season last year, a lot of it was touchdown related. But I mean, clearly, again, you're opening up targets and opportunities now. He did most of that before Burden was a thing, before Colston Loveland was a thing in terms of Odunze, but still a lot to love about that situation. Again, assuming that the Bears are done finishing out, rounding out their receiving core, I want to talk about another pairing that sort of ties together. That's the Colts and the Steelers. So Alec Pierce gets his big deal. They now trade Michael Pittman to Pittsburgh, and now we're left with a pairing in the Steelers receiving core of DK Metcalfe and Michael Pittman. So give me the breakdown of the top four wide receivers for the Colts, which would be Alec Pierce and Josh Downs as of now, and then the two top receivers in Pittsburgh, which would be, at least in my opinion, still DK Metcalf and then Michael Pittman.
- [10:48]
Dave Richard
I'm not drafting any of these guys as top 24 wide receivers. Pierce is the closest to that group. I'm expecting him to see an uptick in targets be used a little bit closer to the line of scrimmage compared to his prior four years in the league. I've got DK Metcalf next and then I've got Josh Downs if we're talking full ppr, and then Michael Pittman bringing up the rear. All of them in that, let's call it wide receiver 30 to 45 range where we can, we can count on them in a pinch as a starter in a two wide receiver league, certainly in a three receiver league, you're going to start Pierce, you're going to start Metcalf. But really when it comes to Downs and Pittman, those guys are more of bench players that you hope just get a lot of targets in a given matchup. You play the matchups with those guys with other receivers that you might have. Maybe you didn't draft a ton of receivers and so you'll juggle Downs or Pittman with a couple of other wideouts and you just play the matchups from week to week with those guys. But Pierce is the one that I think has the highest ceiling of the four.
- [11:47]
Jamie Eisenberg
Totally agree. I would probably still take Pittman over Downs, but that's certainly something that you can make an argument for and against for each guy. Just hopeful that as Heath alluded to on our full length episode Wednesday, Mike McCarthy looking a little bit more pass volume, Pittman will be the short area target by comparison to Metcalf. We know that's something that Rogers can lean on and they do lose, you know, their their number two pass catcher in Kenneth Gain while leaving, you know, so that could open the door for, you know, Pittman to sort of ascend a little bit maybe so more so than either Jalen Warren or Rico Dowdle as the, you know, short area target there for, for Aaron Rodgers, assuming he is the quarterback. Two more or three more players I want to get to before we wrap this up. So Jalen Waddle gets traded from the Dolphins to the Broncos. Give me the breakdown of Waddle and Cortland Sutton in Denver. Now that they're teammates, I like Waddle more.
- [12:36]
Dave Richard
I think Waddle has some pretty big upside with a fairly safe floor. He's got the same type of injury concerns that a lot of other receivers that we've talked about have. So you've got to weigh that. And I know that we've seen Broncos wide receivers. There's a stigma that they're spreading it around a lot of. I don't know if that's necessarily been the case since Sean Payton's been there. There's been one guy that gets north of seven targets per game and then everybody else kind of falls in line behind him. It hasn't been that close. And I wonder if Waddle could actually get. I don't know if he can get to 7.5, but maybe 7.3 targets per game and just have the chance to do a lot with them. He's far more explosive than any other receiver that Denver has in their offense right now. Worry about the touchdown production for him. I don't know if he's necessarily going to be fed near the goal line, but I do think he's going to be in sync with Bo Nix. Knicks doesn't have a high eight. We've seen that through the first two years. He likes to keep his passes short. It doesn't mean he doesn't try downfield, just means he doesn't try it enough. Waddle, we've seen him succeed in that role. We've seen Waddle succeed in every role. And the Broncos didn't have a wide receiver like that last year who could do it consistently. And the end result was an offense that was good, but it could have been better. Now it'll be better. Waddle is someone who's definitely a top 20 wide receiver. For me, maybe closer to 15 than 20, although we already know my wide receiver. 15 is a buka. I would rather have a Buca than Waddle Sutton, a number three wide receiver who you're hoping gets a lot of touchdowns over the course of the year.
- [14:01]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I'm, I'm. I don't want to say significantly lower on Waddle, but I would rather have DJ Moore, Luther Burden, Mike Evans. Waddle right now is wide receiver 24. For me, I am concerned about the targets. It's a little crazy to think that Denver was fourth in past attempts last year at 6:13 and their number two guy in targets only had 104. So they did spread the ball around quite a bit last season. And in the two years that we've seen Bo Nix and Cortland Sutton together. Sutton being the leading, you know, pass catcher there. It's been right around 120 targets is what the average is for the two years for, for Sutton. So I don't know if we're going to see 140 targets for Jalen Waddle. I think 120 is probably a safe number knowing that Sutton's still there and that there are still going to give opportunities to some of the other guys. They just have a lot of mouse to feed, you know, and. And if J.K. dobbin stays healthy, I think the run game is much more successful this year than it was last year. That's saying a lot because Dobbins never stays healthy. But obviously, you know, Sean Payton wants to run the ball and involve his running backs as pass catchers as well. So I think Waddle is the best receiver in Denver. I think he's a good number two receiver. You certainly can make the argument, you know, top 15 through, I think, 24, 25, depending on when you want to take a chance on them. And look, most of those receivers in that range get drafted in round four, early round five.
- [15:16]
Dave Richard
Right.
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Jamie Eisenberg
I think that's a good spot. For a while. I didn't like where you took him in round three, I think.
- [15:19]
Dave Richard
Me neither. I wouldn't do it again.
- [15:21]
Jamie Eisenberg
Round four would change that. But he's going to be one of the more debated guys. Two more guys I want to get to quickly before I wrap this up, just because they're prominent names. You got Wando Robinson in Tennessee and Romeo Dobbs in New England. Which of the two guys do you prefer in. In full PPR this year?
- [15:37]
Dave Richard
I like Wondale in full ppr. But I'll tell you what, if we're talking non ppr, it might be Romeo Dobbs. It's that close between the two of them. But Wondale, we've just seen it. He was drafted into the NFL by Brian Dable. He was made a star by Brian Dable. I'm using the term star very, very loosely. And now he's followed Brian Dable and. And a lot of money to go to Tennessee. It's 8.2 targets per game in his last 38 games for Wandell Robinson. That's with Dable or Mike Kafka at the helm. Remember, Dable got fired toward the end of last year. Kafka kept Rondell Robinson in that role. And I think he's going to have that exact same role in an offense in Tennessee. That's probably going to throw the ball a lot, probably going to be chasing points in a lot of games and they've got a quarterback who can move in and around and out of the pocket. And Cam Ward he keeps plays alive. Wanda Robinson has flourished in that type of opportunity. When the quarterbacks keeping plays alive, he finds ways to get himself open. In no way am I saying that Wanda Robinson is a top 24 wide receiver even in full PPR. But he could finish there because I think he's going to get a lot of volume that turns into a lot of catches. Those catches count for a point each. The yardage and the touchdowns that come with it aren't going to be exciting. That's where Romeo Dubs might have an advantage. But to me Wondale in full PPR is the better bet. With Dobbs. We don't know for sure that he's going to end up as the number one wide receiver in New England. And even if he is, we just saw the number one wide receiver, it was an older Stefan Diggs. Barely had 100 targets. That's a team that will certainly spread the ball around. I don't see them shoving all their targets into Romeo Dobbs lap and expecting him to be great. I think Dobbs will end up being the type of wide receiver who averages between 10 and 11 PPR points per game, has some blow up weeks and we've seen him do that in Green Bay and he's a good talent. I just worry about him getting a high dose of targets and that's the name of the game. Certainly in fantasy, but especially in full PPR leagues.
- [17:31]
Jamie Eisenberg
Totally agree. I think you should be drafting Robinson ahead of Dobbs, but I think both guys are going to maybe, maybe, maybe, depending what happens in the draft, slip through the cracks a little bit just because it's the number one receiver for the Titans and the potential of Romeo Dobbs is not being that exciting to anybody that might not be a New England Patriots fan, but both benefit in a big way with the places that they ended up. I think if Robinson had stayed in in New York with neighbors coming back additionally likely would have been bad for him. Same thing for Dobs as we've seen during his career in Green Bay. All right, that'll do it for us on Fantasy football to express for Dave Richard, I'm Jamie Eisenberg. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening. We'll talk to you next time. Paramount podcasts.