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Alfredo Brown
You all know I've been running an Airbnb for a while now, and it's been a great way to make use of my extra space, especially when I'm traveling. And I've got some great trips coming up. First, I'm heading to Pinehurst, North Carolina for an annual golf trip with the crew. Always a blast.
Adam Aizer
Then I'm swinging down to my old.
Alfredo Brown
Stomping grounds in Gainesville, Florida, to catch.
Adam Aizer
A Gators game and slide into my favorite Mexican spot, La Tienda, for some steak tacos.
Alfredo Brown
What I love is that with the Airbnb co host network, I don't have to think twice about what's happening back home.
Adam Aizer
I found a local pro who handles.
Alfredo Brown
Everything, creating the listing, managing bookings, messaging guests, even being there in person if anything comes up. I get to enjoy the trip, be in the moment, and know everything's running smoothly. So whether you already host like I.
Adam Aizer
Do or you've got a space just.
Alfredo Brown
Sitting empty while you're away, this is.
Adam Aizer
A total game changer.
Alfredo Brown
Find a co host@airbnb.com host hi, I'm.
Adam Aizer
Kristen Bell, and if you know my.
Jamie Eisenberg
Husband, Dax, then you also know he.
Adam Aizer
Loves shopping for a car.
Jamie Eisenberg
Selling a car, not so much.
Adam Aizer
We're really doing this, huh?
Jamie Eisenberg
Thankfully, Carvana makes it easy.
Adam Aizer
Answer a few questions, put in your VIN or license, and done. We sold ours in minutes this morning.
Jamie Eisenberg
And they'll come pick it up and.
Adam Aizer
Pay us this afternoon. Bye.
Alfredo Brown
Bye, Truckee.
Adam Aizer
Of course, we kept the favorite.
Jamie Eisenberg
Hello, other Truckee.
Adam Aizer
Sell your car with Carvana today. Terms and conditions apply. This is Fantasy Football Today from CBS Sports.
Alfredo Brown
What a play.
Jamie Eisenberg
Can you believe this?
Adam Aizer
No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
Alfredo Brown
Off to the races and he stays at his feet. Chris is going to go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
Adam Aizer
Yo. Our favorite values in fantasy football, we're talking about it right now. It's Thursday, July 10, and we've got a special guest joining us today. I'm Adam Aer with Jamie Eisenberg. No Dave, No Heath. No Dan. Everyone's out of town. Everyone's on vacation, doing fun things that people usually do in July and August. And we're doing fun things, too. We're talking fantasy football with Alfredo Brown of football guys. Follow him on X or guess I'm saying X now at Alfredo A. Brown. What's up, Alfredo? Welcome. Thanks for coming on.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, man, it's great. I'm. It's really exciting to know that I was not option one or two, probably three. But I'm excited to be here. It's always fun to talk. Talk football in the middle of July. We're like, We're. I feel like we're spinning our wheels. Then once we get to August, like, okay, this all. This all really matters. But, like, the ADP has been moving a little bit. It's fun to find some values right now.
Adam Aizer
I actually feel like it all matters right now. I feel like July is. I feel so much pressure on these shows. I can't just say crazy things and be like, yeah, you know what? We'll reassess in two months. I feel like my opinions now are. Are my. Obviously, they can change, but it's going to. It's going to determine the fates of fantasy football for millions of people. Basically, it's how I'm feeling.
Alfredo Brown
Millions.
Adam Aizer
Yeah. Jamie, what's up?
Jamie Eisenberg
I would just like Alfredo to know that when I knew he was coming on the show today. We did a mock draft yesterday with three other amazing analysts in the industry, but you were the first person that I asked to do the draft, so you were first in my mind to join our draft.
Adam Aizer
Yeah, that's because this is alphabetical order, though.
Jamie Eisenberg
No, I usually send your invite last.
Adam Aizer
Oh, yeah, true. What's this tweet all about, by the way? This X you're going on? Jamie's going on your show later.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah. Actually, like, right after this, we're. We're gonna just chop it up a little bit, doing something a little different from, like, what I typically do with football guys. So instead of being like, give me your best sleepers or, you know, like, players like that, we're just gonna kind of break down. Like, what goes into the thought process of fantasy football? Like, what shapes his decision making? Everything from how you draft, start, players, trades, waivers, everything. To make it something a little more evergreen, something someone could look at, like, five years later and be like, this still makes sense. Jamie Eisenberg, he's pretty smart.
Adam Aizer
All right. You can hear that on the Pretend GM podcast. I'm very tempted to click this button right now, but I won't do it. Okay, let's get into the show here. Favorite values. We also have some.
Jamie Eisenberg
It was Ryan Wilson. We know you wouldn't follow.
Adam Aizer
We have some news and notes. Excuse me. News and notes. Gosh. Come on, now. Don't cough, don't joke. Like, five minutes into the show and update on the fft. Open another draft of that stuff. But Alfredo Brown's number one, top, undisputed best ever can't be beat. Undefeated Numero uno value in fantasy right now is who.
Alfredo Brown
No pressure. It's Devon Hn right now, running back for the Miami Dolphins. And I'm just really excited for one the, the, the direction that this is going now. I hope it's that the ADP doesn't skyrocket too much after the whole John O. Smith deal here, but we should expect a much more prominent role for Devon Hn this year. Without Raheem Moser, without Jeff Wilson, I know we probably get a little bit more Jalen Wright, they draft Ali Gordon. I was in love with Gordon coming out of Oklahoma State. The whole thing for me is just you look at the splits for Achan with Tua and without Tua. 11 games with Tua, 22.6 PPR points per game, averaging six receptions per game. He's an absolute PPR monster in the games without Tua, it just crumbles down to 8.7 PPR points per game. Only two receptions there. The thing for, for me is that I don't think we've still reached the ceiling yet with him. He's just playing 62% of the snaps. Last year that was 19th amongst running backs in the NFL and when the team basically was having just Tyreek and Waddle with Achan out there. No John who Smith. We're looking at Devon HN getting a 22% target share. That would have been first amongst running backs. Alvin Camara led everybody with a 19.6% target share. So this is something where I don't think we've seen the ceiling quite yet. Tua keeps talking about wanting to get the ball out faster and faster and faster and he like already gets the ball out fastest in the NFL. So to me that just still leads to more touches and more receptions for Devon Achan. Most fantasy points per touch amongst running backs over the last two years. Wow. I love where he's going. If you can get him in the second round, more power to you. I don't think I want to wait for that. I just, I'm going to go ahead and take him in the first round. I've got him at my ninth overall player.
Jamie Eisenberg
What would you say, Alfredo, if you found out someone took him third overall? I'm sorry, second overall. No, third overall. Third overall.
Alfredo Brown
You know what? I, I, I wish I had the numbers in front of me, but I looked at this the other day and Devon H's numbers with TUA were better than Jameer Gibbs numbers with David Montgomery on the field. So if people are willing to draft Jameer Gibbs at 2 or 3 overall. I think you need to be willing to draft Devon HN at 2 or 3 overall if you are really believing in him this year.
Jamie Eisenberg
So in our draft yesterday, Heath Cummings drafted HN third overall.
Adam Aizer
Yeah, he. He not that crazy. He loves hn. He has HN and Genti as top five players. I. Okay, six catches per game. You think he can repeat that? I'm thinking more like four with tua.
Alfredo Brown
I mean, I don't see why not unless there's some sort of big change in how they're distributing the targets here. Especially for me, what stands out is hearing TUA saying that he just wants to get the ball out faster. And it's like, dude, you already do that. Now you want to get the ball out faster. I don't think this offensive line has gotten any better. And even the guard tackle guy that they got in the second round, Jonah, I'm not going to try to pronounce the last name. He's a great run blocker, so that's going to help Achan on the ground. But two is still not going to have the best pass protection out here, so he's just going to continue to keep getting that ball out quick.
Adam Aizer
Yeah. So Alfredo, by the way, is using his. His football guys ADP in CBS. ADP Achan is going 11th. Football guys ADP is going 15th. He's RB7. He's going after Derrick Henry Jr and Brian Thomas Jr. Derrick Henry not junior. I don't think he's a junior.
Jamie Eisenberg
But Brian Thomas, anybody's ever called that guy junior.
Adam Aizer
Derrick Henry V and Brian Thomas Jr. So Devon hn 15th overall. That's the value that Alfredo is going off of and that's why he thinks HN is the one of the best values of fantasy. Did I say Henry 15th overall or HN 15th overall?
Jamie Eisenberg
I don't know everything Junior.
Adam Aizer
Yeah, yeah.
Alfredo Brown
Everything went black after that. Sorry.
Adam Aizer
Okay, so HN for you, you like him as a first round pick. Heath loves him as a first round pick. And I'm just. There's a. There was a league last year was actually my FFT open league where the guy who had the first pick shout out to Rich Eggie, his friend of mine who joined the FFT Open in my league. He had the first pick and everyone was taking McCaffrey first. And he's like, no, I'm not taking McCaffrey first. He's too old. He's going to get hurt. So he went bold and he of course much better Pick he took Breeze hall, But in rounds two and three, at the 23 turn, he took Malik Neighbors and Devon Hn and both of those were sort of eyebrow razors at the time. And I was like, wow, you know, it's bold, but it might work out. And you know, unfortunately Tua got hurt, but if not, those would have been just unbelievable picks anyway. Jamie, who's your number one, top undisputed best ever, can't be beat undefeated Numero uno value in fantasy. What do you got?
Jamie Eisenberg
I guess I'm trying to think of someone we haven't spoken about recently. Maybe Tyree Kill. No, I'll go back to, to what we've been talking about this week and say Calvin Ridley, it's just such a big opportunity for him and we actually kind of glossed over it. We just kind of said, oh, he's great value in the spot that he is. So in CBS's ADP Alfredo, he's like in the 90s, I think, just given the opportunity for better quarterback play. And Cam Ward should be a better quarterback than what we saw from Will Levis last year. I don't think that's a big surprise. But when he had games with Mason Rudolph, he was basically two points per game better. And hopefully that's going to be the case. That'll be in that 14, 15 point range as opposed to the 12, 13 point range that he was living in with Levis once DeAndre Hopkins was traded. So the receiving core is going to be interesting. We'll see what Tyler Lockett does. We'll see what the two rookies, you know, have to offer. Maybe some more tight end play with, you know, Gunner Helm joining Chigo Conquo But I do think, you know, just better quarterback play is going to help Calvin Ridley across the board. So if he's going to stay in the range that he is on our side, based on the ADP of the limited drafts that we have so far, that's a steal, I think will probably creep up around or 2. But even that range is worth the risk because you could still be getting a top 25ish caliber wide receiver. He's not going to be a top 15 kind of guy unless, you know, touchdowns dramatically increase. But I, I think, you know, 15 points per game for a guy that you could get 70s overall, maybe, you know, somewhere in that, you know, range. We have somebody in the chat saying 50s everywhere else. Okay, so he's 63rd.
Adam Aizer
Calvin Ridley is 63rd as wide receiver, 31 in football, guys, but he's one of these guys where football guys is really great. ADP shows ADP from different sources. I guess we don't have enough CBS or ESPN yet, but he's all over the place. He's as high as 56th. He's as low as 110th. So Calvin Ridley could end up being great value, but when's the first time? When's the earliest you'd consider taking ridley?
Jamie Eisenberg
So round versus receiver number? I think wide receiver 31 is about the range we start to, you know, consider him. If that's in round five, I'm probably passing.
Adam Aizer
Okay. I also like to say that, you know, last in his last 11 games, that was after DeAndre Hopkins got traded. Calvin Ridley was on pace for 130 targets and almost 1300 yards. His full season numbers don't look so great because in the first six games he was only on pace for 102 targets. But Hopkins was actually a pretty big factor there. All right, so we got a chan. We've got Ridley as very good values for you. And we've also got being a value, a great way to make a difference in this world, and that's by donating to St. Jude. You can do that through our draftathon@tinyurl.com 2025fft tinyurl.com 2025fft so let me give you a quick update here. The mailbag spots, what are we up to? We're up to almost $2,000. Excellent. The mailbag spots, they've sold out for Friday. So we purchased so all 10 of those for $50. You can donate more than that, and a few people did. They're sold out. But we've got a new batch now of 10 for next Friday's mailbag. So I appreciate everybody participating in that. So that's great stuff. FFT Open Leagues, you can get them on this page, tinyurl.com 2025FFT but not until July 21st. They go live on July 21st. 24 leagues, let's fill them up. $66,000 to St. Jude. If we sell out all the spots where they're going to have people in the CBS world, they're going to have leagues like obviously the fft crew. But MacKenzie Brooks, Tom Fornelli, Jacob Gibbs, Chris Towers, and more people outside the CBS world are going to have FFT open leagues like Scott Fish, Tom Grassi, who's a YouTuber and a Packers fan, and some of our friends from fantasy life. So that'll be July 21st. Meanwhile, big thanks to Mike from a town east of New haven with a $11,000 donation, you are the atop the leaderboard right now. Andy G. Donated 250 bucks. Magic giants Diana, Windsor, and Jack donated 100. And we have a number of 50 donations. So we're almost at $2,000 in 10 days, and we're going to raise it a lot more than that. We're going to hit six figures. All right. We will be right. Yeah.
Jamie Eisenberg
Can you put the graphic back up for a second?
Adam Aizer
The FFT open. Yeah.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yes. Alfredo, you and I have met in person. I don't know if you've met anybody else in person. Who do you think rank. Rank the. The heights of the four people that you see on the screen there? Dave, Adam, Heath, and myself. And that's not the order, but rank the heights.
Adam Aizer
And for all the people who can't see, they're all. We're all about even in height.
Alfredo Brown
I'm not gonna lie. I was thinking this the whole time, and all I was sitting here saying is, why is Dave's head so gigantic in this? I've seen him in person. It's like, it's not that big. I know. Heath is probably tallest, right? I think I'm gonna say.
Adam Aizer
Is it.
Alfredo Brown
I've never. I've never met you, Adam. I think I'm gonna say you're probably second tallest. Jamie. And then Dave.
Adam Aizer
Ooh, thank you. Thank you.
Jamie Eisenberg
That is.
Adam Aizer
All right, what's the real winner?
Jamie Eisenberg
I think he's taller than Dave. Dave and Heath tower over me. And Adam.
Adam Aizer
Jamie towers over me.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yes. Adam is the smallest by far.
Adam Aizer
That's so funny that you thought I was second toss. I'm not even close.
Alfredo Brown
This graphic, man, it does you some justice.
Adam Aizer
Yeah. Look at that hair.
Jamie Eisenberg
They just corrected it this year. It used to be like, I was the smallest by far, like, because the pictures we like. Adams lives in New York, so the. The pictures we've done together, Dave, Heath, and myself, and I'm significantly smaller than both of them. And so it used to be like, I was small, and then they made Adam so big, and I really look.
Adam Aizer
Like tiny, tiny URL dot slash Jamie. All right, we'll be right back on Fantasy Football today, right after this. If you went on a road trip and you didn't stop for a Big Mac or drop a crispy fry between the car seats or use your McDonald's bag as a placemat, then that wasn't a road trip. It was just a really long drive.
Alfredo Brown
At participating McDonald's.
Adam Aizer
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with the Price of just about everything going up. We thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing.
Alfredo Brown
Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium wireless.
Jamie Eisenberg
Everybody get 30, 30. Better get 30, better get 20, 20, 20. Better get 20, 20.
Alfredo Brown
Everybody get 15, 15, 15, 15. Just 15 bucks a month.
Adam Aizer
Sold. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment.
Alfredo Brown
Of $45 for three month plan equivalent.
Adam Aizer
To $15 per month required new customer.
Alfredo Brown
Offer for first three months only.
Adam Aizer
Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of network's busy. Taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com all right, we got some news for you here. Tampa Bay left tackle Tristan Wurfs could start the season on the PUP list. Great left tackle. He's got a knee injury. The PUP list would need to be out the first four games of the season. Meanwhile, also Tampa Bay saying they want to create more explosive plays in the pass game, which they actually did last year. They were fifth in pass attempts. They were also fifth in explosive pass plays, but it was a lot of short stuff. Baker Mayfield had one of the lower adots in the NFL and so their, their big pass plays were really done with a lot of yak. They were 16th, for example, in explosive pass plays of 20 or more air yards. But Jamie, how big of a deal is for the Buccaneers if Tristan Worth. Let's just, let's just put them out four games. And that would be Atlanta and Houston. What's that?
Jamie Eisenberg
It's a tough start.
Adam Aizer
Atlanta and Houston on the road, jets and Eagles at home.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I mean, the, the Eagles and Texans Texas game. Yeah, it's going to be a little bit tough without worse there. But I mean, if it's four games, it's not huge. You know, they'll certainly get by. I think the, the thing that you look at is they got off as a team to a slow start. You know, they, they really had to, you know, finish strong to make the playoffs. So if you're talking about it from that perspective as a team, you know, they should be fine. I, I do think fantasy wise, you know, it's maybe a little bit, you know, pause. If you're debating, let's say Chase Brown versus Bucky Irving in, you know, the second round, you're debating Baker versus Knicks versus some of the other quarterbacks in that range. You know, from that perspective, I don't think it's going to really alter the, the full value of the receivers. But you know, if, if it's now worse and maybe God went out, you know, then you sort of maybe alter some things as well. But I. I think if he's back, you know, after four weeks, I'm not changing how I'm drafting the Bucks.
Alfredo Brown
Okay.
Adam Aizer
And they did play one game last year without Tristan Worfs. They played a high school team from New Jersey that wears blue, and they beat them 30 to 7 and average 7.3 yards per play. In 2022, they played three games without Worths, not including Week 18, where the starters didn't play that much. And they struggled, but they kind of struggled all year. That was Tom Brady's last year, and they weren't that good. Seattle. We'll go to Seattle here. Right tackle Abraham Lucas, who's a. I'd say a pretty important piece for them. He keeps. He's hurt a lot. He's healthy now. And he said, we knew this, that the team is focused on establishing the run. So Ken Walker is another guy we're going to talk about. He's one of Alfredo's favorite values right now. Seattle was 28th in run rate. They were 29th in running back carries. Only three teams had fewer running back carries than Seattle, the Giants, the Raiders, and the Browns. We need a better version of Ken Walker. He was only 42nd among, I think, 46 running backs with 100 or more carries in explosive run rate. But in his first two seasons, he was sixth and 11th. All right. Kyler Murray says he wants to run more this season. We would welcome that. And Kyron Williams looks. Has looked more explosive this offseason, according to his running back coach, which is great. But if you read the article, Blake Corum also is more explosive. And the rookie from Auburn. Why am I blanking on his name? Hunter. Yeah, Junior. He is looking good as well. But, yeah, I mean, I think that Alfredo. I think that's actually important. If we, maybe we. I don't know if we need it from Kyron Williams because he's been, you know, a fantasy stud two straight years, basically, and people seem kind of down on him, but it would be nice to get some more explosive runs from him because that's not really his thing.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, I mean, we're. We're gonna. I mean, prepare yourself because we're gonna get like a month of propaganda about players. That X player looks amazing. A lot of it is going to be rookies that nobody has ever seen in training camp before and how great they're going to be. And like you mentioned Jarquez Hunter, and that's something that, like, especially with Kyron Williams. We did this last year where everyone was really worried about Blake Corum and then now this year everyone's worried about Jarquez Hunter. And honestly, I kind of like almost all of the Rams players as fantasy values here because they can just still be. Really. All they did was swap out Cooper cup for devonte Adams, which I think is an upgrade. So if this offense is just getting better, that has me equally as excited as I was last year.
Adam Aizer
Okay, well, let's see who else you are excited about. Let's talk about Alfredo's favorite values. Devon HM was one of them. He's going as RB7 if you look at the consensus ADP on on football guys, and he's going 15th overall. But we'll talk. We talked about him. So let's go to Jonathan Taylor. He's RB8. He's 20th overall. I guess I would just say I. I actually don't think this is great value. I feel like this is where he should go. Maybe even later. Okay, tell me why I'm wrong. Tell me why. Taylor is very good value at 20th overall.
Alfredo Brown
I've just got him a few. A few spots higher. I've got him at 17th overall. He's my running back. 8. I've been kind of bouncing back and forth between where I really want to put Christian McCaffrey in all this. I'm having a lot of mental struggles of where I actually want to rank him and where I feel most comfortable drafting him. And I think I tell myself that if I was sitting there in the middle of a fantasy draft, I'm in the second round and I'm looking at Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor. I'd probably take Jonathan Taylor because I just don't want to miss on, on that second round pick. But as of right now, I still have McCaffrey ranked higher because of the upside for me with Jonathan Taylor. And I know this is not how people win fantasy football, but in those first couple rounds, you just don't want to miss on these picks. And with Jonathan Taylor, you have a good floor. The Colts, this is a team that's going to have to live through the run. They were sixth in run play percentage last year. Colts quarterbacks had just three games over 250 passing yards. By the way, all three of those were Joe Flacco. Now you have Daniel Jones, who averages 211 passing yards for his career. Anthony Richardson is like just so much worse at 159 passing yards per game in his career. The. The run is going to be so important for Indianapolis and we saw that over the final stretch of games and the final three games for Indy, they jumped all the way up to fourth in run play percentage. Last three games of the season with Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor was getting 25 rush attempts per game. So I, I know there's being like a lot of, a lot made out of the competition of who's going to win and who's going to be the starting quarterback and how it affects them. Both of these quarterbacks run plenty. Neither of them pass very well. If anything, the offense might be better with Daniel Jones, which is very weird to say, but Jonathan Taylor is still going to get his volume. 25 rush attempts per game. In those final three games with Richardson, he had the big blow up game against Tennessee. 200 plus yards and three touchdowns. We've seen Daniel Jones be able to make a running back relevant in fantasy football with Saquon Barkley and we saw a little bit of that when people were getting excited about Devin Singletary early in the year. Last year. There's just not a lot of competition on the depth chart. Even though I like Khalil Herbert, he's strictly a backup. DJ Giddens is a guy that they drafted who I don't think is going to be taking any time from Jonathan Taylor. I know the big concerns for everyone and for me is the offensive line took a hit and ankle injuries have become a thing for Taylor. But in the years where he's healthy, he's just the top seven running back in points per game every single year. So I see him as a value. If I'm looking at him towards the end of the second round where he's going 20th overall, I'm going to hit that button every single time.
Adam Aizer
Okay, I'm going to give you, you mentioned his last three games with Anthony Richardson. I'm just going to give you a 17 game pace from his last three games overall. And tell me if you think, yeah, tell me if you think he goes over or under this.538 carries, 2,947 yards and 34 touchdowns.
Alfredo Brown
I'll take the over.
Adam Aizer
Okay. Very bold variable. Jamie, do you think Jonathan Taylor is safe?
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh, yeah, yeah. I think, you know, there's, you know, when you start to look at like profiles, you know, I know I've been saying this a lot recently, but like you start to look at player profiles like Jonathan Taylor is a 95 version of Derrick Henry, you know, you're not going to get a lot of receptions, you're going to get a lot of volume you're going to hope to have some positive game script. He doesn't, I think, have the same ceiling as Henry, which is why he should be going after him slightly. But I think round two is a good spot for him. I, I like his value. I, I would personally take McCaffrey over Taylor because I think if McCaffrey hits, you're going to get a better fantasy option. But I understand what Alfredo's saying because we've seen, you know, what the, the pitfalls are for McCaffrey, who's, you know, two years old or at least two years older than Taylor, if not three or four. So I, I think you're looking at, you know, one of these players in round two. Like, he's, to me, like he's sort of like one of the bridge running backs, right? Because I think he should go after A Chan, he should go after McCaffrey, he should go after Genty and Henry, and then he's sort of the guy I think you take before Bucky and before Chase Brown, you know, just based on what those guys look like coming into the season and before Kyron Williams, you know, so the 18 receptions from a year ago scare me, you know, because you're asking him to repeat those type of rushing numbers on an offense that could really be awful. I mean, there's so many good pieces here. But the quarterback play could just be an absolute disaster because while Daniel Jones may be a better option for the receivers, just based on how he's done comparatively to Anthony Richardson, like, he's just hasn't been good. So it could be, it could be a disaster. And so if he's not going to get some, you know, additional touches, you know, based on what he does in the passing game. So non ppr, he's a monster. Half ppr, he's pretty solid. Full ppr, he's great. But, you know, there's a little bit of a concern because you're just not getting those added bonuses.
Alfredo Brown
Jimmy, do you think that there's like a, a panic that sets in for Shane Steichen and staff there, that, okay, if our quarterbacks can't get it done, we just really need to control everything, the run. And let's just give Jonathan Taylor as many touches as possible because, I mean, I would say they're on the hot seat right now.
Jamie Eisenberg
I would be shocked if, you know, their quarterback play was good if they weren't doing that with Jonathan Taylor. So, yeah, the, the game, game plan is as much Taylor as they could possibly get, but everybody playing them knows that too, you know, so it's, you know, especially knowing that they're, you know, you're going to get a lot of RPOs, you're going to get a lot of design runs from their quarterbacks. You're going to get a lot of, you know, everything is, you know, coming off their run game, whoever is doing it, you know, whether it's the, the guy taking the snap or the guys getting the carries in the backfield. So I think that's just the, the concern is like, you know, you have some offensive line changes that may be positive. You know, we just never know how these things go. But, yes, this is Jonathan Taylor's offense through and through. It's, it's, there's, there's no hiding it. You know, if they, if he doesn't have success, they're gonna be in trouble.
Adam Aizer
Well, you mentioned him as a bridge running back after Derrick Henry and A Chan and Genti and whatnot before Chase Brown, Bucky Irving. You also mentioned Kyron Williams, but looking at the last two years, I don't really think it's an easy call. Fantasy drafters are making it an easy call to take Jonathan Taylor over Kyren Williams. I think maybe there's some concern about Kyron having competition. I think we all think that Jonathan Taylor's a better player, a more talented player than Kyron Williams. Not to knock Kyron, but Taylor's pretty damn great. There's another guy you didn't mention, that's Josh Jacobs. I don't think you said him.
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh, yeah, I'm sorry. Jacobs for me, is right there, too.
Adam Aizer
Jacob. Yeah, Jacobs versus Taylor is tough. So Jacobs and Kyron are also on this list for Alfredo of values he likes. So you have Taylor at RB8 and Jacobs at RB10, 22nd overall, Kyron Williams at RB12, 30th overall. You like those values. But if we can just rank those three guys and I, I think the one thing that really jumps out, looking at this big group of Taylor, Jacobs, Kyron, plus Bucky Irving and Chase Brown, I think you'd have to say objectively, the Colts come into the season looking like they have the worst offense of those five teams. Most people, I think, would agree, would agree with that, right? We're talking Green Bay, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Rams and the Colts. So there is that. He also might have the fewest receptions of these five in Jonathan Taylor. But, you know, just a loop in the, the three that you like. Alfredo at their values, Taylor at 20 overall, Jacob's 22nd overall, Kyron 30th overall. How would you rank them?
Alfredo Brown
Exactly like that. It would be Taylor, Jacobs, Williams. And the reason I just keep giving that edge to Jonathan Taylor's. His team is going to rely on him more than, I think any of these other guys. The Rams can be a passing offense. I think the packers want to be more of a passing offense. The Colts don't really have a choice. They have to lean on Jonathan Taylor. And I think out of all three of these guys, Taylor's the most talented. Not by much over Jacobs, but I do think he's the most talented.
Adam Aizer
And Jamie, how about you? Taylor. Jacobs. Kyron.
Jamie Eisenberg
Jacobs. Taylor. Kyron.
Adam Aizer
What is it you think that that is scaring people off of Kyron Williams? He's going 30th overall in. In the football guys. Alfredo.
Alfredo Brown
I. I think it's just a lot of people holding on to where he got drafted, his size, his speed, numbers, which is like a weird thing that people are still holding on to. But then there's enough, I think, sharp people in the industry that are saying, well, you know, the Rams drafted a running back last year in the mid rounds, and they draft the running back again here in the mid rounds. But this is also something that Sean McVeigh just does every single year. And the fact that they're even considering giving Kyron Williams a contract extension, like, should quell any concerns that this is their guy. So I'm. I'm not sure why people are getting scared of Kyron Williams. I think a lot of it just has to do with the Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter of it all.
Adam Aizer
Well, a contract extension would probably help his value if it happens, right? I mean, I think it would quell those fears. Yeah. I mean, I gotta say 30th overall for Chiron just. I don't know. I don't know why it's come to this.
Alfredo Brown
He's the best value of the three running backs that we're talking about. I wouldn't rank him the highest, but I think he's the best value of all three.
Adam Aizer
And that being said, Jamie, if we. Sorry, let me get the. That ADP up, right? Let's just look at where Jonathan Taylor is going at 20th overall all the way to where Kyren Williams going 30th overall. I do see how any of these guys could be taken. Not Garrett Wilson, I don't know. But so it's Taylor, Bucky Irving, Jacobs, McBride, Josh Allen, T. Higgins, Lamar Jackson, Chase Brown, Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill, Kyren Williams. I mean, I. Someone has to Be last in that group, I suppose. You know what I mean? It's a pretty solid group of players with interchangeability. How do you look at that list of 11 players from 20 to 30?
Jamie Eisenberg
I think just it comes down to probably how you started your team and how much you feel about taking a quarterback or, you know, one of the two tight ends. I, I'm assuming Brock Bowers is in the first.
Adam Aizer
He's ahead of that 17 picks.
Jamie Eisenberg
So it just comes down to, you know, how much you want to take one of those, you know, different positions as opposed to taking another running back there. So if you're, if you're taking the quarterbacks and the tight ends out, then he's going to be a second round pick. And look, he's in, he's in the mix with these guys. I think anybody that's devaluing him is, is devaluing him because of some of these other players, not necessarily devaluing him because of the position that he plays. So Alfredo's right. Like, you know, there, there's, there, there are people, I think they're just really, really concerned about Kyron Williams and they made the mistake probably last year as well and said, oh, he's a punt returner and oh, they brought in Blake Corum and all these things that sort of, you know, the, the narrative that we, you know, may have made a mistake on and he comes back and has a solid season. I think the concern is, you know, first off, when you keep hearing wanting more explosive plays, he just doesn't give you them. And so does, does McVeigh and do the Rams want that? And so does he just lose a percentage of touches and does that sort of knock him behind Bucky Irving and behind Chase Brown? And you know, the guys that he's going to be in, in the conversation with Jacobs and Taylor as well. The other part of it is I'm concerned about Alaric Jackson. You know, I mean, if these blood clots are a problem and they don't have one of their key offensive linemen there, you know, we saw what this rams offense was 2021, they were amazing. 2022, the offensive line started to break down and Matthew Stafford was a mess and everything sort of just fell apart. Sean McVeigh and Les need have done a great job of putting this team together in a variety of ways and the offensive line has been such a key part of it. And so if there's some sort of shift, it's just, again, you're nitpicking between some pretty elite talent at that position. So I think he's the second round pick. Whether it's back end around two. If you want to say early third round pick. Look, you're getting a great value if you're getting 30th overall, there's no question about it.
Adam Aizer
Okay, so last thing I want to say about Kyron is he went from, I want to say 5 yards per carry in 2023 to 4.1 yards per carry in 2024. And his schedule was a lot harder. He had a very Easy schedule in 2023. The first three games of the year for him are the Texans, the Titans and the Eagles. And those are three teams that typically have really good run defenses. I know the Eagles lost Milton Williams, but they got a lot on the D line. Texans were third best in yards per carry allowed to running backs last year. Eagles were, I think fifth best. Titans were kind of middle of the pack. But usually when Jeffrey Simmons is healthy, they're really, really good there. So you don't want him when they've got two mid round picks as competition. You don't want him to get off to a bad start. Kyron Williams, and that is kind of a tough schedule, at least to start things off. Okay, let's talk about Trey McBride. He's going 23rd overall, whereas Brock Bowers is going 16th overall. So who's your number one tight end and why did you put Trey McBride on this list of your favorite values?
Alfredo Brown
Trey McBride is my top tight end and it's a lot of it just has to do with, well, he averaged more targets, more catches, more yards per game. He led all tight ends and targets per outrun. Trey McBride was just good at everything. The only thing he wasn't good at was getting touchdowns. And, and that's the thing. Like he still commands the target share. He was the only tight end with a 25% target share in the league. He's been good after the catch, kind of like a young George Kittle. Like this is something he was good at coming out of Colorado State. And then last year he leads all tight ends in red zone targets. He has 34 red zone targets, but then only two touchdowns. So you have to imagine there is going to be some regression to the mean there where we're going to see something positive happen for Trey McBride. I know you mentioned earlier, Kyler Murray says he wants to run the ball more. I feel like he kind of flip flops on that every other year. Like some years he says he wants to run more. Other years he's like I want to pass more and then just. We really don't see it. I. I would hate to be the one that misses out on Trey McBride being the game changer for my fantasy team because I just didn't notice that the touchdowns weren't there despite all of the red zone targets. Like every single other metric is there for him and he passes the eye test every single time. Brock Bowers going that high in drafts, I don't think he's a. He's obviously a great player. I don't think he's enough of a differentiator for you at the tight end position to justify taking him that early the way Travis Kelsey was years ago where you're taking him in the first round almost. So Trey McBride going, I mean, on that 2, 3 turn, if I can get him in round three as my tight end one overall, I love that.
Adam Aizer
So Bowers is going 16th, as I mentioned, and McBride is going 23rd. Would you take McBride 16th or you think that's even too rich for him?
Alfredo Brown
I think that's too rich for him. I don't necessarily want to be taking tight ends early. I just think that Trey McBride is a value at tight end because he's going as the second tight end despite, I think, really being the number one tight end here. And he's going so many spots after Bowers, that just instantly makes him a value. But I'm. I'm probably targeting later tight ends if I can.
Adam Aizer
Okay. I think that that list I read from 20 to 30 is interesting because if you get to that point and both of those tight ends are on the board and you feel like there's, you know, between your pick in the middle of round two and your pick in the middle of round three, pretty much the same tier of player, then maybe that's your green light to go ahead and select Bowers or McBride there and just, you know, hopefully you get a Tyree Kill if you love him. Or Chase Brown. False. You or Kyren Williams is your pick and you feel like you got in the third round. You feel like you got a second round player while also grabbing one of the elite tight ends. I hope that makes sense. Now, if I could tie in George Kittle, who's also on your list of favorite values. He's tight end three. He's going 40th overall. So we got Bowers, 16, McBride, 23rd overall, Kittle, 40th overall. What's your favorite value when you look at those three picks? Not your favorite player, but your favorite value?
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, I think it is George Kittle. And that's why I'm, I'm a lot less likely to take McBride or Bowers in the second or third round because I can sit there and take George Kittle in the fourth round. The guy who was tight end one and fantasy points per game last year, he just continues to defy the gods with, you know, his, his as he gets older but he's catching the ball further and further downfield each year. Last year he yards per route run and yards per target were way deeper than any other tight end. He's still top two and yak yards after catch every single year. The 22% target share near the top amongst all tight ends. I mentioned McBride was at 25% so I mean KD is right there. So we've got the volume, we've got the efficiency, we've got the big plays now there's no Debo. You've got concerns with Brandon Auk's health and if I can get a guy who can be I think equally as effective or if not more effective in fantasy than a Brock Bowers in the fourth round, I love that for my fantasy team.
Adam Aizer
And what's your read on that, Jamie? With the tight ends? Bowers 16th, 23rd for McBride and 40th for Kittle.
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean it's, it just screams taking tight end two and three as opposed to taking tight end one, you know, so McBride's my tight end one also, you know, so I'm, I'm excited about his outlook. I think the later you get him obviously the better and I think Kittle's going to be one of the best values that we see in almost any position. You know, it's not just that Ayuk is banged up. You have both Pearsall and Jennings dealing with injuries coming into camp. They should be fine. But I mean, imagine a situation where those two guys aren't there. I mean what we've seen from Purdy and, and Kittle and their rapport and obviously what Kyle Shanahan's done with Kittle, it's just fantastic. So he's defying Father Time. You know, he's just continuing to get better and, and I in the draft yesterday. So I, I was faced with a tough decision at the 34 turn and it was like, okay, it's Kittle and who else am I going to take? Because he was sitting there at 36 and I knew I was going to get a player of his upside coming back around, let alone at that spot to begin with. So I, I, I think you know, end around three is where you should start looking for them. So 40th overall is certainly a great bargain.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah.
Adam Aizer
I'm going to tell you my difficult decision with George Kittle. Not we just want to look at adp, not something that happened in the draft. You know, do you take George Kittle or. Right after this break we'll finish that thought. We'll be right back. On Fantasy football today on WhatsApp, no one can see or hear your personal messages. Whether it's a voice call message or sending a password to WhatsApp, it's all just this. So whether you're sharing the streaming password in the family chat or trading those late night voice messages that could basically become a podcast, your personal messages stay between you, your friend and your family. No one else, not even us. WhatsApp message privately with everyone. Member week is here at Lowes. Don't miss your chance to get up to 40% off hundreds of items like.
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Adam Aizer
All right, so George Kittle going as tight end 3 40th overall. Right after him you've got Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts. So you come up in the fourth round of a 12 team league and you have to decide am I getting a top three tight end or top five quarterback. And I think it's a tough call. So Alfredo, which way would you lean? Would you go with Kittle or would you go with Burrow or Hertz to grab one of the top five quarterbacks? Because at this point Allen Jackson and Daniels are off the board.
Alfredo Brown
I'm going kiddo, and for me it's not a tough call. I just want to go with a premier tight end like that. Quarterback has become so flat because there are more and more running quarterbacks every single year and people are drafting Drake May as like Quarterback 13 right now. And he's got the same rushing upside as a guy that's a top five quarterback. And last year we saw it where late round quarterback is still very much a thing. I believe it was like nine or eight out of the top 12 players were all drafted outside of round nine. So the late round quarterback was just such a thing. And not all of them needed to be rushing quarterbacks. So if you're finding those later round guys that can run the Justin Fields, the Drake Mays, Caleb Williams pops off, you know, something like that. I think you're finding great value there. I don't know that. Very similar to how I said with Bowers. I don't know that Joe Burrow is giving you that differentiator that you need at the quarterback position.
Adam Aizer
I think he is in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues because usually he's up to close to 28 points per game or so when, when Higgins and chase are healthy. 4 point per passing touchdown. I mean, I think you could also make the case because he's gonna, you know, he's the favorite to lead the NFL in passing yards, but it's an easier case to make in six point for passing touchdown leagues. Jam way. I don't even have to ask. I know, but which way do you go? Jamie Kittle or Burrow or Hertz?
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I would go Kittle. I think for everything Alfredo said, you know, you're getting, you know, the opportunity to get quarterbacks that are still going to produce at a high enough level. You probably could still find a tight end that performs like Kittle, but it's a little bit more challenging. So I'd rather have that positional advantage at that spot as opposed to taking, let's say one of those quarterbacks who should be great. But you know, we saw Hertz finished as QB7 last year. He wasn't, you know, up to even where he was expected to perform when he was one of the top three quarterbacks. So there's going to be guys that will perform close to that level. Whereas again, if you get, you know, Kittle performing like he was a year ago, you're going to get, you know, top three player at that spot.
Adam Aizer
Yeah, it's, I mean he's, he's a great player. He's, you know, you could argue the best tight end of his time. I know that includes Travis Kelsey, but Kittle being more of a blocker and so efficient, obviously he's great and I love him. But I just want to point out, you know, I think he's 32. He's gonna be 32 in October and he scored last year 15.8 points per game in PPR. That's his most in five seasons. He looked like a player on the decline because if you look at his points per game in his last five seasons, 15.6, 14.3, 13.5, 12.7. This is why I was nervous about Kittle. And then he bounced back up to 15.8. Iuk got hurt. Debo was a shell of himself and Christian McCaffrey. Caffrey played three and a half games. He only played one game. Kittle played only one game all year with a healthy McCaffrey and a healthy Brock Purdy. And he had four targets. He scored 14.7 fantasy points, three catches, 57 yards and a touchdown. McCaffrey had seven targets in that game. Obviously I think he's going to average more than four targets.
Jamie Eisenberg
Don't you think this is sort of baked into his adp? Because if you were saying right now you're getting the same points per game, you're drafting him, where Bowers and McBride.
Adam Aizer
Are going, I think people expect more From Bowers and McBride, honestly. If you expect 15 and a half points per games, they were all around 15 and a half points per game. That is nothing close to what Travis Kelsey used to, used to average in his prime. And I don't think you should take any of those guys in the second round. You correct me if I'm wrong, if either of you disagree. But, but if you're expecting what they did Last year, about 15 and a half PPR fantasy points per game, you should be looking at them in round three or four, round two. I think you're hoping for 17, 18 points per game and you're just looking at the totals for McBride and Bowers and going they're going to basically do this while scoring more touchdowns. I think that's the theory behind taking them in the second round. So I don't necessarily, necessarily think Kittle is discounted, especially when you consider he's 32 years old and those other two guys are in their prime. But you know, I also think if you just talk about the difference between last year and the years before, it's just a different receiving core now, as you already mentioned. I mean, it's, it's not Debo Samuel and Brandon Iuk. It's not Jimmy Garoppolo. It's hopefully, you know, the best quarterback he's played with and he might lead the team in targets. So that's my take on it. Alfredo.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, I mean, you mentioned it's the bounce back last year. Well, I mean, it's kind of the same offense running it back. The only big difference here is going to be Christian McCaffrey. But it's not like their running backs weren't catching passes out of the backfield. It's not like Joanne Jennings wasn't getting peppered with targets in certain games. Ricky Piersol became a thing. I think there's also like there, there is an intangible thing which I know is so hard to quantify on a podcast like this, but there is an intangible thing that just Brock Purdy does like George Kittle and he does target him pretty comfortably. The quarterback rating does tend to be higher when he's targeting George Kittle. As Brock Purdy finds himself in trouble, that's the quick release valve for him. And that Niners offensive line, that was something that was being talked about a lot in the draft that they needed to go out and get more offensive lineman. And I don't know that I have a whole bunch of faith in this team being as good of an offense as they've been in the past, but I think that's just going to make Brock Purdy rely on Kittle even more.
Adam Aizer
Last question. Do you think any one of this trio is clearly safer of Kittle, Burrow and Hertz?
Alfredo Brown
Kittle, Burrow and Hertz. It's tough because they're all different positions, right. If I have to go with say for like, like you mentioned 6, 6 point per passing touchdowns leagues, it's Burrow. If it's a four point per passing touchdown league, it's, it's hurts. But at quarterback, I don't want safe at quarterback. I want someone that just changes the outlook for me. That is a big differentiator between all the other guys. I can draft there.
Adam Aizer
But they are, I mean those, those two guys are. No, I mean you already said, you already said you're not sure about Burrow, but you can't hurts. I mean, I think, I mean I, I, it's a harder decision for me in case you all haven't figured it out.
Alfredo Brown
Because I like, I think we're getting similar value with guys like, like Bo Nix who was also running the ball a ton. Like not, I'm not a huge Bo Nicks believer, but there's just enough quarterbacks that are running now and getting touches at the goal line that it, the, the Jalen Hurts thing, it's not, it's not as appealing to me in drafts.
Jamie Eisenberg
I guess the question Adam would be is would you rather have let's say Kittle and I don't want to just say a running quarter like Fields. You know, would you rather have Kittle and Dak Prescott or Kittle and Nicks vs Burrow?
Adam Aizer
And I know where you're going. The answer to this is always going to be Kittle and the quarterback.
Jamie Eisenberg
So then you shouldn't have a tough choice.
Adam Aizer
No, but, but I do think that Burrow and Hertz are. Are a lot safer than George Kittle. And for me personally, it might come down to. Forget it. I wouldn't.
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, look, there's a reason why these guys are averaging, you know, I mean, Burrow was second points per game at his position, and Hertz is, you know, going to give you 700 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. You know, that's what he's given you, you know, each of the last three years, if I'm correct. So you know, what you're getting from those guys. The, the. That's why they're top five quarterbacks. But I think there's an easier path to somebody else or a couple of other players that position getting to that level. Not maybe Burrows level, but. But to Herz's level, where there's not a lot of guys that are going to get to Kittle's level.
Adam Aizer
I guess. I guess if Joe Burrow does what he did last year and George Kittle does what he did last year, I think Burrow is a more valuable player.
Jamie Eisenberg
It's fair. I mean, they were both great. They both were, you know, both top three at their position.
Adam Aizer
Yeah, they were. All right, let's. Let's talk about the last three here. Jackson, Smith and Jigba. He's going as wide receiver 15. He's 31st overall after Garrett Wilson, Tyreek Hill and Kyron Williams. JSN is one of your early favorite values.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, he's one of these guys that. Especially a wide receiver. I think, obviously the thing you always want to target is volume as best as you can. Last year, JSN, eighth in receptions, 12th in targets, wide receiver, eight and a half PPR scoring. I think it's a little bit higher in PPR formats as well. But he did all this with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the roster. Not that Tyler Lockett was all that great, but both those guys are gone now. JSN is the clear number one. There's this guaranteed volume that's built in. And not that he's this, like, brilliant offensive mind, but I'm somewhat excited for Clint Kubiak coming in. He's. I think there's a lot of narrative that the Seahawks want to run the ball a lot more, and maybe that's what they're saying, but when you go back and look at Clint Kubiak, he has always been a very balanced play caller with like a 45, 55 split in favor of passing. So it's not something where I. He's going to be in the middle of the field in both of these. So with this guaranteed volume for jsn, what I like most with Clint Kubiak is that he likes to move his receivers around a lot more, get JSN out of the slot instead of making him just this static guy. I think that's going to be Cooper cup who's going to be in the slot a lot or a little more static. JSN is going to be the guy that's being moved a lot in, in play action in pre snap motion. That was something that Kubiak did a lot. That was something that Darnold thrived with as well, is getting guys in motion, hitting the play action deep passes, hitting the intermediate part of the field. That's something he was good at in Kevin OConnell's offense. Kubiak and O' Connell come from that same Shanahan coaching tree. So there's a familiarity there. So I think that's why they go out and they get a Sam Darnold to try to, to put him in an ecosystem where he's comfortable. I think the Cooper cup thing becomes sort of a red Herring. He's 32 years old. He was really final five games. He was like wide receiver, 70 something over that, that stretch. He's missed 18 games over the last three seasons. It's just he does not worry me whatsoever. And then when I look further at the depth chart, there's just nothing else really behind him. I mean there's sure there's excitement for Elijah Arroyo to do something cool, but after that it's like Marcus Valdis Scantling and rookie Tory Horton and Jake Bobo. It's really. If this offense is going to have any semblance of success through the air, it's going to have to be through Jackson Smith, Naju.
Adam Aizer
Okay. Do you like him better than the guys who are being drafted ahead of him? Garrett Wilson and Tyreek Hill.
Alfredo Brown
I think he is safer than. It's weird to say that he's safer than Tyreek Hill at this point because I, I do worry that Tyreek, the injuries are starting to pile up and you see that with the uber athletic guys once they hit that, that 30 plus age mark, it's a little different. Garrett Wilson, we've kind of seen what he is in and it's not because of him, it's just because we've seen him get the volume and we've seen kind of where it maxes out. Could Justin Fields be the best quarterback he's had in his career? Yeah, but that's Also, what's concerning if Sam Darnold even gives you a like, kind of what he did last year in Minnesota. And JSN continues that volume and gets even better volume. I think I like JSN the best out of all those three guys.
Adam Aizer
Why don't we stick with the Seahawks? We have two more players, Rasheed Rice and Ken Walker. Let's go to ken Walker. He's RB17. He's going 46th overall after DJ Moore, after Omarion Hampton, and after Alvin Camara. Just after Camara. So RB17 for Ken Walker. 46, man, that would be awesome. In fact, he's a guy. If you take a look, if you're watching, see his ADP on all of these sites. He's not a top 39. He's 40th. That's 40th or lower 40th or. Or, you know, between 40 and 50 something on CBS. He's like his ADP. Ken Walker's ADP is something about 39.75. So we'll round it up to 40. So he's making it to the fourth round everywhere and perhaps late fourth round. I love it. And apparently you do, too, Alfredo.
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, I mean, if I can snag him at the end of the. Based on where I'm at, if I'm sitting at the end of the third round, I'm going to take him there because I don't want to let him fall to the fourth round. I. I really like Ken Walker. I've liked him since he's come out of Michigan State. And like I mentioned with Clint Kubiak, this is going to be a balanced offense. They might try to run a little bit more, but I don't think it's going to be this thing where it's just so overwhelming. Walker's just been the clear RB one for Seattle. I mean, I know as much as we want to make Zach Charbonnet a thing, and when he does get opportunity, he's decent. But Walker's been the RB1. He had 63% of the rushing attempts last year as a fifth amongst running guys. Like fifth amongst running backs in target share, which is like, that's the thing that stood out to me the most, is all of a sudden it's, you know, it's Happy Gilmore. Oh, Happy can putt, you know, like Ken Walker can catch like that. This happened just out of nowhere, man. And he was on pace to be second amongst running backs and receptions through 12. Last year he was running back seven in PPR points per game. That was the head of Devon HN who were all just taking gladly in the first round now. So with Clint Kubiak, the whole thing is that his running back one gets mass opportunity something. And a credit to Ryan Heath over at fantasy points. He posted this the other day the second highest expected fantasy points per game since 2021. For Kubiak's RB1, it's just a good indicator of attempted volume. It's right up there with Christian McCaffrey. So if Ken Walker is going to be the RB one in a Kubiak offense, we're looking at a guy that we see, yes, he can catch, yes, he can run. The problem is going to be can he stay healthy with that kind of volume? And he's been nicked up here and there. He's missed 10 games over three seasons. Last year they were like missed games in pockets where he would miss two games here, two games there. I think where it hit everyone the hardest was that he missed those games during the fantasy playoffs. And I think a lot of us are just holding that against him. This is also a contract year for what it's worth, so it would not surprise me if the Seahawks are like, yep, let's just give him a ton of volume, run him into the ground. Let's see what happens. Now that could hurt you late in the season. So like that's always the risk with drafting a running back, but if I'm getting him in the fourth round, where ADP is or late third round, he's a guy getting drafted RB17. But he does have a ceiling of a top five running back when healthy because now he actually is catching passes.
Adam Aizer
I don't think there's a lot you disagree with there about Ken Walker, right, Jamie?
Jamie Eisenberg
No, I, I do. I was trying to think so Kubiak had McCaffrey in his best season, right. 20, 23 and then Camaro last year. So he's gotten some pretty good guys to deal with, which I'm sure inflates some of those numbers, but clearly he's.
Alfredo Brown
Going to be 20, 21 in Minnesota. I can't remember who the running back was. Was that. Was that Dalvin?
Jamie Eisenberg
Must have been. Yeah, I, I think the thing that's, that's, that's obviously exciting about him is can he stay healthy or the, the question mark can't stay healthy, you know, and if he does, he's going to have an unbelievable year, you know, so to tie in both, both Seahawks, now you're looking at, you know, two young players that have an opportunity here to, you know, sort of dominate touches with, with what JSN can do and what Walker could do. You know, the offensive line is going to be a little bit of a concern. You know, they've clearly tried to address it this offseason. Hopefully it works. I'm a little concerned that we're going to see a, a step back for Darnold because of the offensive line and just because he's not in the Kevin o' Connell offense. So while Kubiak's system, yes, it's the same tree and hopefully can, you know, support what Darnold was able to accomplish last year. You know, was this the, the fluke or is this kind of who he is now? You know, do you go through the, the 49ers car wash and then the Minnesota car wash and, you know, now he's sort of just squeaky clean and can, you know, continue to play at this high level? It's going to really determine, I think, how this entire offense goes, but I think, you know, to go back to kind of what you said about Jonathan Taylor, like, they're going to run things through Ken Walker as well and try and take pressure off of Darnold and take pressure off of the entire offense. That's what Mike McDonald seems to have wanted by making some of these changes in coordinator and quarterback. And so hopefully Walker can, you know, play more than the 11 games that he played last year and, you know, sort of, as you said, you know, take the, the sting out of everybody's, you know, feeling. They had him last year when he wasn't there one game in the last five, missing the entire fantasy playoffs. So it's always nice when you get these kind of situations if you want to do it. And a lot of fantasy managers are split on this. Like, you can, you can take both Seattle running backs very comfortably, and then you have this backfield locked up. And so we've seen it. You know, whenever there is no Walker, Charbonnet is an absolute stud. And so you just kind of plug and play the Seahawks running backs. If you are worried about, you know, Walker's injury, same thing with drafting McCaffrey. You can easily draft Isaac Arando and you're. You're having yourself covered. So if you are into a handcuff, being a handcuff fantasy manager, these are two teams. Seattle in particular. You can clearly just take both running backs in very easy spots and you're fine.
Adam Aizer
Okay, there's.
Alfredo Brown
There's some, like, Devon Hn stuff here kind of with Ken Walker, like, what if all the targets are just funneled down to JSN and Walker as being the guys like we, we kind of saw a little bit of that last year. If this becomes a thing where Walker is the second most targeted player on the team because Cooper cup is injured and they really don't have anyone else that, that's, that's a Smash pick in.
Adam Aizer
The fourth round, I guess. My. So they threw the ball so much last year and I think he doesn't play on third downs and he's hasn't been the two minute drill guy. So I'm skeptical of the catches. He averaged fewer than two catches per game in his first two seasons and then he averaged four catches per game last year. So I, I think it's a mistake. I think they should get him the ball. It just put it in his hands, get him out in space. He's really talented but they hadn't really shown a willingness to do that until last year. So I have concerns about that. And he averaged 3.7 yards per carry last year. And I think one of the main reasons is he's always. I'm sorry for being a broken record. I know I've said this a lot. Ken Walker is always trying to score a touchdown. Every time he gets the ball, he's looking to score a 60 yard touchdown. He was from the three.
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, we hate that.
Adam Aizer
No, I mean it's great, but he does it too much and he has a lot of. I talk about his explosive plays. Two of three seasons he's been really great. There's there. He unfortunately is very bad. When you look at percentage of carries for zero or negative yards. He has a lot of negative carries. He's always trying to hit the home run. And you know what, you can get away with that when you have a good offensive line. Seattle had a terrible offensive line last year. I mentioned Abraham Lucas earlier. He's played 13 games in the last two years. They drafted an interior offensive lineman in the first round. So they're hoping that they're going to have a better offensive line. If they don't, I don't know that we're going to get the showcase the skills of Ken Walker because the way he runs, always trying to hit the home run, I think he could be done in by a bad offensive line.
Jamie Eisenberg
Well, I mean the, the theme of the show is where you're drafting him. It's easy to take him in the spot. It's a question of, you know, how much do you really value Ken Walker? Like I don't know where you have him ranked. Alfredo, he's 13th for me, you know, so I'm, I'm number 14 for me. Excuse me. I'm looking for him back into round three, early round four, you know, so I, I, I don't have a problem, you know, if this is the case, reaching for him because of what the upside is. And then again, easy to cover yourself just to take Charbonnet, you know, in that round nine, 10 range, because that's usually where he's at.
Adam Aizer
I was, yeah. To follow up on all the negatives, I said, if I can really get ken Walker as RB17, 46 Overall, it would be one of my favorite picks. It would be a layup. It would be tougher for me if he starts going in the middle of round three. Okay, Rasheed Rice is going at the two, at the three, four turn. 36th overall. Rashee Rice is wide receiver 18 after Terry McLaurin, after Jaden Daniels, after Marvin Harrison Jr. You like Rashee Rice's value at wide receiver 18, 36th overall?
Alfredo Brown
Yeah, man. This, it's so interesting, like, how we look at NFL teams, because a lot of what happens towards the end of the year just carries over to how we feel about these teams and these players the next year. And I think a lot of people are getting worried about Xavier Worthy, but this Chiefs offense was going really through two guys to start the season, Isaiah Pacheco and Rashi Rice. Both those guys get hurt around the same time, the offense falls apart and they're like, all right, let's go and let's get DeAndre Hopkins and let's start getting other players in here. Xavier Worthy, you're not running those deep routes anymore. We're going to put you in the Rasheed Rice role. And it took him a while to actually get good at that, and he still wasn't super efficient at that. He was 58th in first downs per route run. He was just, just he, he saw everything kind of change for him. He was a guy that was getting an average depth target over 11 yards, and that drops down to just six and a half yards. So he was just this inefficient volume guy when the Chiefs really had nothing else. But in the NFL playoffs and towards the end of the season, we see these big games from where he blows up with two or three touchdowns in a game. But that was a lot of that was in the Rashee Rice role. Guess who's good at the Rasheed Rice roll? Rashee Rice. And he's, and he's back. So it's Just he was the wide receiver 2 overall in points per game across those first weeks, which I know is a super small sample size. But it's not like we haven't seen him be productive before. We've seen him be good after the catch. We know he's got sort of that. That floor, especially in PPR formats. He's had plenty of time to recover from this injury and he's just a guy that's perennially a top 24. And I can't probably. Can't say perennially because he hasn't been playing for that long, but just he's been a wide receiver too or better in eight of his last nine games where he's played like he is trying to just always a. Not just startable wide receiver, but a guy with a high floor and high ceiling being in the Chief's offense.
Adam Aizer
You definitively like Rasheed Rice better than Xavier Worthy?
Alfredo Brown
Yes.
Adam Aizer
Not even a question for you?
Alfredo Brown
No, not. Not. Not even close. I'm probably one of the lower people on Rasheed. Excuse me. On Xavier Worthy.
Adam Aizer
Okay. How do you feel about Mahomes this year?
Alfredo Brown
Mahomes? Like I'm. I'm okay.
Jamie Eisenberg
Okay. Yeah.
Alfredo Brown
I'm not actively targeting him in drafts. Like I think. What's his ADP at? Isn't he like around quarterbacks?
Adam Aizer
QB6 and he's going 62nd.
Alfredo Brown
I don't. I don't want that. I don't like, I'm gonna take. I'll look at some of those guys going quarterback 9, 10, 11 in drafts instead.
Jamie Eisenberg
I think Alfredo would love my Scott Fishbowl team at this point.
Adam Aizer
Point. Oh, let's hear it.
Jamie Eisenberg
Oh, it's Trey McBride, round one, Devon HN, round two, Chase Brown, round three, Rashi Rice, round four. And I just took Kyler Murray in round five.
Alfredo Brown
Congrats on your championship.
Adam Aizer
Yeah, is such a great pick. I was hoping to get him. I don't know if anybody.
Jamie Eisenberg
I was actually hoping for Fields who went right before. So it. I was. I was hoping either Fields or Tyreek would fall to me. Just because you're playing a 5, 000 person tournament, you got to get guys that are going to have. Have huge upside. So both went and Rice was the third guy that I was waiting for, so I took him and then see if we get a little stacking going with McBride and Murray and hopefully that works.
Adam Aizer
I don't know if. Is anybody interested? Do you want to see my draft room? For those of you who are interested in the Scott Fishbowl and how it's been going. I can.
Alfredo Brown
Everyone loves seeing other people's drafts. Yes.
Adam Aizer
Let's do good. Thank you for validating this. Let's. Okay. We're going to share this.
Jamie Eisenberg
This. It just comes from. Because people like tall people. So since you're so tall.
Adam Aizer
Yeah, exactly. I get the height advantage.
Alfredo Brown
Huge.
Adam Aizer
I should zoom in, right? A little zoom. Zoomage. Okay. So I am off screen now, but this is how it went down. You don't have. It's so amazing how usually Scott Fishbowl, you can start two quarterbacks, but usually you have to start at least one and the quarterbacks go flying. This year you don't have to start any quarterbacks if you don't want. And the scoring. Scoring makes things interesting. I am here. McCaffrey, Lamb, Nico, JSN Purdy. And then this is the team that's really interesting to me. Tango and Cash, Bowers and McBride with the first two picks. Remember, this is two and a half points for receptions for anyone except tight ends, it's three and a half points. So Bowers, McBride there. A lot of teams have only one quarterback. Some teams I think have zero through five rounds. So there's a look at this.
Alfredo Brown
I like your team a lot.
Adam Aizer
I think I like my team. I. I was really hoping for. For Kyle.
Alfredo Brown
Be confident. Nico in the third, JSN in the fourth. This is a good team.
Adam Aizer
Yeah, I was pumped about that. But I need a workhorse running back, you know, and those are kind of gone because you get halfway. Yeah, well, I need another. You have a point for carry. Anyway, that's. Look there just one last thing before we go is please.
Jamie Eisenberg
What's your start so far, Alfred?
Alfredo Brown
I will be drafting live in Orlando this weekend, so I have no idea. I honestly haven't even really looked at the scoring. So me saying your team looks good, it means absolutely nothing.
Adam Aizer
You on sleeper or my fantasy league?
Alfredo Brown
Sleeper.
Adam Aizer
Yeah. So half a point per carry. I'm pretty sure two and a half points per catch, three and a half points per tight end reception. And there's some other stuff too, but.
Jamie Eisenberg
No first down bonus, though.
Adam Aizer
No first down bonus. So mobile quarterbacks are great.
Alfredo Brown
From what I remember, everything is pretty level this year. Like there's no real true positional advantage. If I.
Jamie Eisenberg
If I remember seeing correctly, there's one if he hits and it's Travis Hunter.
Adam Aizer
Oh, right. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Please vote for us for the Podcast Awards. Go to Podcast Awards or go to Podcast Awards. Slash app, slash signup. Look for us in the sports category and support fantasy football today. And thank you so much, Alfredo. It's been great having you here. You're my favorite value at this point in the season.
Alfredo Brown
Oh, thanks. It's you. You and my mom. Favorite values.
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, you gave him honestly, the best compliment he's ever had on this show in 15 plus years by far.
Adam Aizer
I don't want to be tall. Controversial take. How tall are you, Alfredo?
Alfredo Brown
I'm 5 10, but my license says I'm 5 11.
Adam Aizer
Oh, okay. My license says I'm 5 8, but I always tell people I'm 5 9. I think I'm pretty close. I. I think there's a lot of advantages to being short. I never have to worry about leg room. And that's it. That's pretty much the only advantage. But it's a big advantage.
Alfredo Brown
It's a big.
Jamie Eisenberg
I was, I. I was. Ran into a friend of mine and I coached her son in baseball, and the father is probably 65 at least. Just a really giant human being. And we were talking about, like, because my son had, like, a very fast growth spurt. And I said, oh, he's playing travel basketball now. You know, baseball's still one of his favorite sports, but probably in basketball. I said, oh, your son may get there too. She's like, I don't want him to be tall. It's not. It's not fun to be married to somebody who's that tall. And so it was interesting to hear her say that.
Adam Aizer
Oh, wow. I guess that's why I'm in such a happy marriage. I knew it all along. All right, thanks so much to Alfredo and all of you for watching and listening in the Jamie Eisenberg we to would love talk to you tomorrow with a mailbag.
Jamie Eisenberg
There's Johnny with a good comment. Get that in there.
Adam Aizer
Adam has step stools in every room in his house. That is partially true, but that is because of my kids, not because of me. All right. I do have trouble reaching the top shelf sometimes, though. We'll talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy.
Alfredo Brown
Football Today.
Jamie Eisenberg
Paramount podcast casts.
Adam Aizer
Novocay is now streaming on Paramount plus.
Alfredo Brown
You'Re going to love this.
Adam Aizer
It's an adrenaline rush of fun. This is the best and a bloody good time.
Alfredo Brown
Looking forward to it.
Adam Aizer
Novocain. Rated R. Now streaming on Paramount Plus.
Fantasy Football Today: Episode Summary – "Favorite Early Values with Alfredo Brown" (Released July 10, 2025)
In this engaging episode of "Fantasy Football Today", host Adam Aizer welcomes special guest Alfredo Brown from Football Guys to discuss early value picks for the upcoming fantasy football season. Joined by Jamie Eisenberg, the conversation delves deep into player analyses, draft strategies, and the dynamic landscape of fantasy football. This summary captures the essential discussions, insights, and expert opinions shared during the episode.
[01:52] Adam Aizer:
"Yo. Our favorite values in fantasy football, we're talking about it right now. It's Thursday, July 10, and we've got a special guest joining us today. I'm Adam Aizer with Jamie Eisenberg—not Dave, not Heath, no Dan. Everyone's out of town."
Adam introduces Alfredo Brown, setting the stage for an in-depth exploration of early value picks in fantasy football.
[04:40] Alfredo Brown:
"No pressure. It's Devon HN right now, running back for the Miami Dolphins. And I'm just really excited for one the direction that this is going now."
Alfredo highlights Devon HN as the premier value pick, emphasizing his potential to outperform his current ADP (Average Draft Position). He cites HN's increasing target share and consistent performance, positing him as a first-round necessity.
Key Points:
[06:21] Jamie Eisenberg:
"What would you say, Alfredo, if you found out someone took him third overall?"
Alfredo responds with confidence, reinforcing HN's positional advantage and urging drafters not to overlook his significant upside.
[09:24] Jamie Eisenberg:
"I guess I'm trying to think of someone we haven't spoken about recently. Maybe Tyree Kill. No, I'll go back to what we've been talking about this week and say Calvin Ridley..."
Calvin Ridley emerges as another undervalued asset. Alfredo discusses Ridley's improved opportunities due to better quarterback play and an evolving receiving corps, making him a prime candidate for mid-round picks.
Key Points:
[10:51] Adam Aizer:
"Calvin Ridley is 63rd as wide receiver, 31 in football guys, but he's one of these guys where football guys is really great ADP shows ADP from different sources."
[11:19] Jamie Eisenberg:
"So round versus receiver number? I think wide receiver 31 is about the range we start to, you know, consider him."
Jamie underscores the importance of Ridley's placement in drafts, balancing between his position and round selection to maximize value.
One of the most debated sections of the episode revolves around the ranking and value of top running backs.
Jonathan Taylor: Alfredo positions Jonathan Taylor as a strong first-round pick despite concerns about the Indianapolis Colts' offensive performance. He emphasizes Taylor's consistent high performance when healthy and his pivotal role in the Colts' run-heavy strategy.
[20:48] Alfredo Brown:
"Jonathan Taylor is still going to get his volume. 25 rush attempts per game. In those final three games with Richardson, he had the big blow up game against Tennessee. 200 plus yards and three touchdowns."
Josh Jacobs: Josh Jacobs is acknowledged as another high-value running back with a solid track record. Alfredo appreciates Jacobs' consistent performance and sees him as a reliable option in the middle to late rounds.
Kyron Williams: Kyron Williams presents both opportunities and risks. While Alfredo recognizes his talent and potential value, concerns about his usage and offensive line performance are noted.
[28:08] Alfredo Brown:
"Exactly like that. It would be Taylor, Jacobs, Williams. And the reason I just keep giving that edge to Jonathan Taylor's. His team is going to rely on him more than, I think, any of these other guys."
Key Points:
The tight end position is another focal point, with Alfredo highlighting potential value in Trey McBride and the established George Kittle.
Trey McBride: Alfredo praises McBride for his high target share and efficiency, suggesting he’s undervalued compared to peers.
[35:04] Alfredo Brown:
"Trey McBride is my top tight end and it's a lot of it just has to do with, well, he averaged more targets, more catches, more yards per game."
George Kittle: While recognizing Kittle's declining youth metrics, Alfredo still sees him as a viable late-round pick due to his consistent high performance and rapport with the quarterback.
[36:29] Alfredo Brown:
"Yeah, I think it is George Kittle. And that's why I'm, I'm a lot less likely to take McBride or Bowers in the second or third round because I can sit there and take George Kittle in the fourth round."
Key Points:
[52:03] Alfredo Brown:
"Yeah, man. This, it's so interesting, like, how we look at NFL teams, because a lot of what happens towards the end of the year just carries over to how we feel about these teams and these players the next year."
Alfredo introduces Rasheed Rice as a reliable wide receiver option, advocating his higher safety compared to players like Xavier Worthy due to consistent target volume and role within the Chiefs' offense.
Key Points:
[51:13] Adam Aizer:
"How do you feel about Ken Walker? He's RB17, 46th overall."
Ken Walker is presented as a high-upside running back available in the fourth round. Alfredo appreciates his dual-threat ability as a runner and receiver but remains cautious about his injury history and the Seahawks' offensive line performance.
Key Points:
Throughout the episode, Alfredo and Jamie provide nuanced strategies on how to approach the draft, emphasizing the importance of balancing positional needs with value picks.
Key Insights:
Notable Quote:
[35:33] Adam Aizer:
"Okay. I think that that list I read from 20 to 30 is interesting because if you get to that point and both of those tight ends are on the board and you feel like there's, you know, between your pick in the middle of round two and your pick in the middle of round three, pretty much the same tier of player, then maybe that's your green light to go ahead and select Bowers or McBride there..."
As the episode wraps up, the hosts reflect on the importance of early value picks and the ever-evolving landscape of fantasy football. They encourage listeners to stay informed, adapt to changing ADPs, and prioritize players who offer the best combination of safety and upside.
[65:21] Alfredo Brown:
"Yeah, it's been great having you here. You're my favorite value at this point in the season."
Alfredo's participation enriches the conversation, providing listeners with actionable insights to dominate their fantasy leagues.
This episode of "Fantasy Football Today" offers a comprehensive analysis of early value picks, blending expert opinions with strategic insights. From top running backs like Devon HN and Jonathan Taylor to reliable receivers like Rasheed Rice and versatile tight ends such as Trey McBride and George Kittle, listeners are equipped with the knowledge to make informed draft decisions. The discussion underscores the importance of balancing positional needs with high-upside players, ensuring a competitive edge throughout the fantasy football season.
Notable Quotes:
Alfredo Brown [04:40]:
"No pressure. It's Devon HN right now, running back for the Miami Dolphins."
Alfredo Brown [06:21]:
"I just don't want to miss on these picks. And with Jonathan Taylor, you have a good floor."
Jamie Eisenberg [35:13]:
"...he's going to try and take pressure off of Darnold and take pressure off of the entire offense."
Adam Aizer [35:04]:
"Bowers, McBride there. A lot of teams have only one quarterback. Some teams I think have zero through five rounds."
These quotes encapsulate the hosts' key arguments regarding player value, draft priorities, and strategic considerations essential for fantasy football success.