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FFT Dynasty: 2025 NFL Draft RB Prospects Part 1 with Matt Waldman and Jacob Gibbs! (04/03 Fantasy Football Dynasty Podcast)
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- [00:00]
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- [01:03]
Heath Cummings
Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings and this is the Rookie Running Back Preview Part one. And I just want to say right here at the start, when we started this show, I guess it was almost two years ago now, like this show in particular and the guests that we have today are exactly what I envisioned and hoped to do with this show. We've got Matt Waldman back on the show again. And Matt, I want to just right at the very beginning, give you a chance because I think it's. I, I've said this multiple times throughout my time at CBS and I probably said it back when I was a football guy. Like my rookie. Research is not complete until the RSP comes out. So please tell everybody how, what, what you've been working on and how they can get involved.
- [01:50]
Matt Waldman
Sure. The Rookie Scouting portfolio. This is my 20th year doing this, so 20 years of publication. It is a combination of an NFL draft guide of scouting reports and fantasy football focused publication. And it's in two parts. I do a pre draft which just came out April 1st. It's available for 21.95@mattwaldman.com you're gonna get a bookmark PDF and when I say bookmark, it's heavily bookmarked because it's over 1200 pages in length with over 165 prospects at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end where I take you through everything and then There's a post draft and that post draft comes out a week after the NFL draft where I give you kind of just the quick how do they fit with their scheme? Here's a cheat sheet based on ADPs I've already been looking at versus where I think the players talents and fits are. And so you can find sweet spots for like if Patrick Mahomes, you know, back in the day when they were like, oh, he's probably not the best of the quarterbacks in this class. And I say, no, he's far and away the number one. You can get him at the beginning of the second round or the, or really the middle to late second round and comfortably get him without, without a risk of losing him. Here's the sweet spot of how to do that. You know, and I rank, you know, all the players that were drafted along with free agents in a cheat sheet for you to do that. And you get a newsletter that updates you on the next year's prospects and, and updates to my rankings during the year. So you get all of that. And you can find it@mattwaldman.com mattwaldman.com if.
- [03:28]
Heath Cummings
You'Re serious about playing dynasty fantasy football, if you're serious about digging into these rookies, go do that, guys. Now I want to also say, like you said, 1200 pages. And I think people can hear that and think, oh my gosh, I can't consume all of that. The bookmarks make it so easy within the positions to go find that. If you just want to see the rankings, you can go find the rankings. You can also read why Rankings Suck, which is one of my favorite sections that Matt does. But like you will if you just want to go read about one player, it's easy to click two or three times and go find that one player. It's very well, it's a choose your.
- [04:05]
Matt Waldman
It'S a choose your own adventure type of reference book. And so, and think about this way. Most people who are new and they hear the 1200 pages and their head explodes, really when you, when you get the post draft, you're going to first think, this is the thing that I'm paying for. You're going to think that because it's just the keep it simple type of approach. But you're going to find that two, three years, four years from now, somebody's going to be, you're going to be sweeping your waiver wire and you're going to look at your depth chart and go, who is this guy? And then you're going to, then you're going to go, oh yeah, you know that I should look up the RSP and you're going to look up the RSP and go oh, this is an unvarnished look at talent, not draft capital. And this guy, and Matt says this guy would be a really great fit in this type of scheme. I should take a chance on him before he becomes a hot commodity some somewhere and you wind up with a, you know, oftentimes a really good player at a very low cost because that, you find that the, oh, the pre draft actually has even more value down the line.
- [05:08]
Heath Cummings
Now I, I will say that the, the, one of the reasons I'm so excited about the two guests that we have on today is because they're, they're not bookends to my career, because my career is not over. Remember back in the early days of getting paid to do this when I thought it was still unbelievable that that was happening. Like some of my early conversations with Matt, he kind of helped bring me into this industry. I still remember that, that Vegas trip and hanging out with you and that was so much fun. On the other end of the spectrum, I remember the early days of Jacob Gibbs career at Sportsline. And I believe it actually started with a different one of the CBS part of the CBS sports family. But I, I, one of the things, Jacob, that you've done as you've grown in this role is you've become, I, I don't know, I tried to come up with some kind of pun about how you're the true media guru, but you find things in the numbers that just blow my mind regularly. You're, you're on Twitter all the time breaking down this class. And Jacob, I just want to kind of kick this off because you've spent as much time in the numbers and in the film on these guys. Like everybody views this as this running back class, as the, the focal point of rookie drafts and for fantasy football purposes, NFL drafts. Have you gotten as excited about the running backs as everyone else, Jacob?
- [06:26]
Jacob Gibbs
Oh yeah, yeah. Just go look at my Twitter page and you will see clearly because there's so many running backs to like. It's a diverse class and yeah, the true media stuff. I think this will be a really cool balance between like me and Matt here because he's like, he's the nuts and bolts of like film and prospecting. And then I bring in all this more finite little points, little data points that I don't know if people are finding because true media is new. The database only goes back to 2017 and so a lot of this stuff you really have to dig for. But is it predictive? That's something people ask me on Twitter. It's like, I don't have enough data to really say that confidently. I think it's just interesting and it might be predictive, but I need more time to test that. Whereas Matt, like, he's been doing this for 20 years. Like, we, we feel pretty good about that process. So I think, you know, what I'm here for is to provide, like, complimentary stats to everything that he has. And I think that'll be a really fun balance. And yeah, man, these running backs are so, so much fun to talk about. So let's get into it.
- [07:27]
Heath Cummings
So you are going to get the full picture today on Ashton Genti, on Trevion Henderson, on A Marian Hampton, on Quinshawn Judkins, on Caleb Johnson, on Cam Scatterboo, and more. We always start with three questions for our guest. And honestly, I could ask these 2:30 questions about the running backs before we get to the players, but three names that I didn't say. Matt Waldman is higher on than consensus. And if you've followed him at all over the years, you'll know that you're not going to look at Matt's rankings and find the consensus dynasty fantasy football rankings. You're not going to find the consensus prospect rankings. His prospect, his process definitely delivers different and I would say better results. So I want to start with three elevated pitches. Matt, these are three guys that not in the top six of consensus rankings, but you are higher on them. Let's start with Taj Brooks.
- [08:17]
Matt Waldman
Sure. You know, Taj Brooks is. He played at probably closer to 230 pounds during his time at Texas Tech. And I used to, and I, as I've joked, I, I've given him the, the personal nickname of Lemonade because I think he's done a great job of turning plays that otherwise would be lemons into Lemonade. Excellent at being able to. He dealt with a lot of penetration into the backfield by opposing defenses and oftentimes. And so while, you know, you look at rates of players getting stuffed, you know, there's a lot of guys who are in this class who are high on that list because opposing defenses pay attention to these runners because they're good. But he's one of the best at mitigating losses. And the best running backs in the NFL mitigate losses at a high rate. And to me, a mitigated loss isn't so much. You know, some people will say well, he gets, still gets stuffed and that's a, and his stuffed rate may be a certain, you know, might be high in a certain rate. But to me, what's more impressive and more contextual is I don't care if he's stuffed, you know, a certain percentage of the time. If more often he's mitigating the loss from a seven yard loss to a two yard loss.
- [09:35]
Heath Cummings
Right.
- [09:35]
Matt Waldman
That's more important to me. You might go, well, the result's still a loss. Yeah, but it, it keeps the playbook more open when you've only lost two or only gained one or something like that compared to, you know, losing five or seven and shutting down the, the width of the playbook. So he's good at running around people, running through people, running, running away from people. You know, he has very strong Le'Veon Bell, Frank Gore like short area change of direction skills. Very adept at pressing creases and knowing when to bounce it outside, when to stay in, in into the middle of the field and taking what he can get and when to find the cutback. And he's a good receiver, someone who can win downfield at least in the college game. So you see that he tracks the ball well. I'm not worried about the speed. We know he's not super fast, you know, four, five, two speed is okay, you know, more than enough. So he may beat some linebackers downfield if they want to use him in that capacity. But he's mostly a check down screen guy who just showed the capability of Texas Tech to win vertical routes, which means, you know, he tracks the ball well. To me, that's what's important. So a very, a very well put together back who processes the field well and can win a number of ways for you. And when he showed up at the combine and delivered the per the short area explosion that I anticipated he would, it fit the comparisons I already had for him which were kind of a combo of Frank Gore and Le'Veon Bell. And he bristles at Le'Veon Bell comparisons apparently because he thinks of, you know, he's young and he's thinking of Le'Veon Bell off the field and doesn't want to be compared to whatever's going on there. And he brings up Josh Jacobs. Well, Josh Jacobs is a Frank Gore archetype of player, you know, so when he says Frank Gore, I'm like, you know, he says Josh Jacobs, I'm like, yeah, sure, you know, I'm just older and I've seen more than you, Tosh. So it's okay, you know, it's, it's a similar kind of profile and what, you know, what we're seeing from this guy is you're probably going to see him in the, drafted in the sixth or seventh round, maybe as a UDFA at best. A lot of these backs that we like, some people really like might not get off the board until the fifth round and we might see multiple backs drafted in the same by the same team in those late rounds. That's going to disappoint us as fantasy GMs like Jamal Williams and Aaron Jones back in the day in that class. Everyone wants to compare this one to, you know, so it, you know, it's gonna be interesting to see how he fares, but the talent is there if the opportunity arises.
- [12:15]
Heath Cummings
I love this line from the rsp. It said at the arrange you can get Brooks. It's a low cost exercise and finding out if I'm right. And that is a fantastic way you don't have to make a first round bet, right. Taj Brooks just, you know, a little bit later in the draft. Let's just see if Matt's right. You know, this guy's probably going to go a little bit higher because I think Damian Martinez a little more on people's radars. But you are definitely higher on him than consensus.
- [12:41]
Matt Waldman
Oh, absolutely. And what's funny is the consensus, if the consensus is media, absolutely I'm higher on him than that of the consensus are people that do draft that I know who do draft work with affiliations with the NFL. I'm, I, I would say it's a small sample size for me, but I, I would say I'm about four for four on that end that everyone seems to think, yeah, I like Damian Martinez more or someone like Matt Bowen, who I don't know where he's rated him, might be lower. But the, the former safety certainly seemed to point out things that he liked about Martinez. And Martinez is one of those guys that he's not going to capture the love that a lot of player that a lot of media will give to running backs because he's not an elite speedster. They love the elite top end speed. He's more of a smooth accelerator who can get, who can flip the field. But he's not a breakaway back. But he's big, he's strong, he can break through multiple tackles. He's a smart runner who under, who can really run multiple schemes and he can solve problems in the backfield and be able to create and get the yards that your Offense needs to stay on track, which coaches really like. They like guys who can manage a game well. Kenyon Drake versus Frank Gore is a good example. Drake was the super speedster but would knock himself out running into the backside of a, of, of a block early in his career multiple times. And I'm sure he has seen that when he was in Miami and May we've seen a little bit of that going on there. Whereas, you know, Frank Gore was someone that you could bring in. And while he frustrated fantasy GMs at the end of their, at the end of his career because he kept basically blocking promising prospects from playing time was because coaches could count on him to get the hard yards now. So when you look at, you know, you look at Damian Martinez, he does all of that. He's also a good enough pass catcher to be like a leak option guy who can, you know, screen passes, shovel passes, some one on ones into the flat, things like that. He's just not used a lot like that at Miami because they ran a lot of four verts. They also. And then he wasn't used a lot of that at Oregon State because when he was at Oregon State he ran a lot of outside plays, outside zone and, and toss plays where you could see more of that acceleration. But when they ran play action, well, guess where they were going the opposite direction of the perimeter play. So unless you're doing throwbacks to your back on the screen, he's basically the distraction for the defense and they're throwing somewhere else. So he, his contribution to the Oregon State receiving game was minimal, but he's a, you know, overall he's one of those backs that I think the consensus of the people that I've talked to, after I did my scouting, we just started comparing notes as I was writing up the book. We were laughing because we're like, this is the guy that everyone's going to pass over and he's gonna end up having like the 10 year career like James Connor. And like he may, he may very rarely give you top five production, but he's going to be like that top 15 back that you go money in the bank. Like he's still holding off Trey Benson, right. So that, you know, it's that kind of thing that would. Martinez has the promise to be the.
- [16:12]
Heath Cummings
Third back that I wanted to talk about, maybe back because he's listed in both sections of the rsp. Savion Williams, is he a running back or a wide receiver? And which one's he better at?
- [16:21]
Matt Waldman
It's close. To be honest. I would say he's a more refined wide receiver who is capable of continuing to grow into the position and be a good outside player who can maybe work multiple positions and give you a lot of damage downfield and yards after the catch. But he is a more talented running back, if you ask me, in the sense that he, based on what he can do right now, his contact balance, his footwork, his speed, his ability to read and set up creases within the scope of what TCU asked him to do, which can be translatable for an NFL team. He has a higher ceiling and a strong floor already. Even though, you know, he's like, you know, he's like the New York Giants running back that I keep forgetting his name from last year, who was a wide receiver at Iowa and Purdue. What's his name again?
- [17:21]
Jacob Gibbs
Tyrone Tracy.
- [17:22]
Matt Waldman
Thank you, Jacob. Yeah, he's kind of like Tyrone Tracy in that respect, but he's a way better receiver than Tracy ever was. And I would say that he is a more punishing runner with, you know, in that respect than what Tracy is. Tracy transitioned very well to what they asked him to do, and I think Savion Williams has the potential to do that if they make him a runner. So I think a great team could say this is what, this is what Cordero Patterson could have been if Patterson's ability to translate what was on the whiteboard to the field were better. Because that's what kind of hindered him for so long, is that he was. He's not a dumb guy. And that's the thing that I want to make clear with people, because people always go, oh, well, they're not smart enough to do this thing. There are certain, there are certain types of learning and translating of information that are more difficult for some people than other and they can be very bright. Alex Smith is extraordinarily bright, but his intelligence to react to what he sees immediately as a passer was slow, and that's what hindered him throughout his career. Cordero Patterson, I don't know whether he's unbelievably smart on book, smart wise or not. But what he has trouble with was taking the whiteboard information and then being able to make diagnosis and changes and adjustments of hots and different reads and reading the coverage and being on the same page and say, like a Norv Turner offense early on in Minnesota. But when they said, you know what, let's make you a running back and let's give you toss plays that put you in space like you're a punt returner you know, and have you run one gap on gap plays or toss outside and suddenly you're getting probably the best open field runner I ever scouted in 20 years into a simulated air, into a simulation where they can do what they do best. And I think that Savion Williams, if he doesn't have those difficulties and I didn't see anything that would indicate that at least he could possibly be what, like the elevated next level version of what Cordura Patterson could have been.
- [19:38]
Heath Cummings
Awesome stuff. Those are three elevator pitches from Matt Waldman, Taj Brooks, Damien Martinez, Savion Williams and Jacob was in the chat saying, I've got a really cool Damien Martinez stat. Go ahead, Jacob.
- [19:51]
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, I, well, first off, I just, I love the distinction that he just made about that IQ and that processing and I think that that comes into play with both the running backs that he hit on with Damian Martinez. And I think Taj Brooks might be the best processor that I've watched in terms of being able to read things quickly and react and improvise. So Martinez, it, it's borne out in his stats. He's just like an unbelievably efficient rusher. These are running backs that were drafted around 5 or higher since 2017 that hit the following career thresholds. It's a rushing success rate above 55% and yards after contact per rush above four. It's Travis Etienne, Javante Williams, Jonathan Taylor and Zach Charbonnet. So those guys were all great in college. We're all drafted high. Javonte Williams obviously had the injuries. You could say the same thing for Travis. ETN Martinez would join that group if he's drafted around five or higher. The other thing is that he was the second best back in short yarded situations. So not only does he have the improvisation, improvisational stuff that we've talked about with being able to read defenses, but he's also just great at using his power to create in short yard situations.
- [21:00]
Heath Cummings
Awesome, awesome stuff. Let's take our first break and then we'll jump into Ashton Genti.
- [21:05]
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- [22:04]
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- [22:35]
Heath Cummings
And we are going to talk about the consensus 101 in rookie dynasty drafts. Maybe the consensus 101 at some point in just straight up Dynasty drafts. Jacob, I want to start with you and I listen. It's kind of a weird situation because we all agree, I think that he is by far and away the best running back in this class. At the same time, how much time do you spend on the guy that everybody's already made their mind up taking 101 and ranking as the top running back. So Jacob, just give us a, a few numbers or, or your impressions just how good Ashton Genti is.
- [23:07]
Jacob Gibbs
So good we could take as much time as we wanted. I had a friend ask me the other day, he's like is this guy legit? And I monologued about him for 10 minutes. He's like I didn't even know I was that interested. And now I'm like extremely excited for football season to be back. I'm like yes, he's, he's gently is so fun. All that I want to add on Jinti, you, you guys already like have heard almost everything. I feel like it's obvious what he does as a rusher, but some people nitpick his receiving profile because he didn't get a ton of receiving last year or like overall but in 2023 he had 569 yards and five receiving touchdowns. He had a 13 first down per route run rate and 3.33 yards per route run. He avoided 24 tackles on 43 receptions. Those are all just absurd. So I, I absolutely think he can do it as a receiver. I think that, you know, Boise just kind of figured out like, we don't necessarily need to get in the ball that way we can just pound it over and over and over on the ground. But yeah, he's, he's so, so good. I could add stuff on the rushing, but I think it speaks for itself. I think it's pretty obvious.
- [24:09]
Heath Cummings
Matt. I, I went through the process this week. I was updating my dynasty tiers and I, I haven't added the running backs to the rankings yet because especially the running back position, draft capital and landing spot matter so much. But I, I put Ashton Genti in tier one with Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs and one, I don't, I try not to give away too much from the rsp, but one of the things I, I always tell people I look at pretty early on when I'm consum you, you'll do running back, wide receiver, quarterback, tight end, rankings over the kind of a composite of the last three seasons. And I go to look at the running back position like, just how high is Matt on Ashton Genti? And, and he's not just in the same tier as Bijan Robinson and Jameer Gibbs, but he is listed as the best back of the last three years. Should I not, like, does he deserve a tier of his own? Should he already be the best running back in dynasty?
- [25:01]
Matt Waldman
No, but he is certainly, but he's certainly in tier one. So like, to me, the tears, like you've alluded to, the tiers more important than the rankings. Right. So, you know, there are things about Bijan Robinson's game that are better than Ashton Johnson, Genti's game, but at the same time with Genti's game, there are things that he does well that, that Bijan doesn't. And, and when I rank players oftentimes with scores, what happens is that, you know, maybe Genti's better coming out of school than Robinson was as a decision maker. Maybe he's better in some ways as a pass protector or a receiver than what Robinson was, but they're both, they were both good enough and will be good enough to see the field. So really at that, in that sense, they're gonna, you know, it's gonna come down to their fit within the system. But as a talent, just as a pure talent, what makes Genti special and, and possibly the kind of player who might fit the hype that he's getting pre draft, which is rare, is that he has what I would call run stamina. And there are. When you think of the great backs in football, you know, for me, it started with growing up in Cleveland, Ohio, and hearing stories about Jim Brown from my parents and grandparents and then, you know, watching Earl Campbell alongside Bigfoot and Andre the giant in the 1970s and then seeing Walter Payton and William Andrews and, you know, then. Then starting to study players and seeing guys like Barry Sanders and Adrian Peterson and we could move on to probably Marshawn lynch as the last one that I would put in that range. All those players I just mentioned, when they begin a play and it's a long run, you often see that they break a lot of tackles and make a lot of people miss or at least multiple tackles or multiple people miss. And at the end of runs, they look like they still have more energy to dictate terms than the people chasing them down and that they seem to overcome that. Ashton Genti. Genti has that kind of run stamina. He's not a power back in the way that, you know, a lot of those guys I mentioned are. But I also mentioned Barry Sanders. He's not Barry Sanders and moves okay. He's more of a Dalvin Cook, D'Angelo Williams type of player. I would say D'Angelo Williams is the comp that I have for him. J.K. dobbins. If J.K. dobbins could have stayed healthy and stayed on the Ravens, I think he had that kind of upside. He's the type of player that you'll watch him and he'll break a 60 yard run. And in the first 15 yards, he probably made somebody miss at least once. He probably, he breaks a tackle or bounces off a hit and breaks a tackle. And then at the end of the run, he makes two people miss and then carries two people into the end zone from 15 yards away or is able to work through contact. And when you're tired as a runner, you can't move as dynamically and make those types of adjustments if you don't have that run stamina. And very few backs have that. So considering that he's carried the ball as much as he does, he's running, he's getting as much yardage as he is, and he's still doing this at the end of games, that's a special quality with him. So I would say that's the standout thing about Genty, is that, you know, the, he has good contact balance, but it's really a. It's really more of a, you're not going to get a clean shot on me. And I'm so good at stop starting or bending around or seeing and eliminating angles that it looks like someone bounced completely off of him. And, and it's more of an optical illusion more often than not where it's like, yeah, that wasn't much of a hit. But the fact that he mitigated the angle so well that it looked like he bounced off that hit is special.
- [29:29]
Heath Cummings
Jacob. I just want to put his value in context a little bit more. You and I share a dynasty league together, at least one. And I have the 101 in that league in this upcoming draft.
- [29:42]
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [29:43]
Heath Cummings
You know, I wasn't even gonna mention the fact that I have the 101 because I traded for your pick. But if you, if you want to bring that up, you can bring it up. And you recently put Devon Hn on the trade block. And I'm just curious to put it in context. Like, what would you be happy to give up in addition to achan for the 101, which is presumably Genti?
- [30:07]
Matt Waldman
Why do I feel like there's a negotiation going on in subtext on this show? Okay, sorry.
- [30:13]
Jacob Gibbs
I'm, I'm, I'm pretty interested in this. Yeah, I would, I would give Gentian or Hn in a second pretty easily. I, I really think Jinty is going to be the one on one soon. Like, I, I, I, what he, what Matt just alluded to is like, just icing on top of the cake, but it is like he can handle an entire workload and just wear people down. He's, I've never seen anything like him in his ability to, like, control when he doles out punishment or when he, you know, just lets it bounce off of him and doesn't take it. Like, people talk about the, the touches wearing him down, and it's like I almost never see him get the wrong end of hits. I think he's gonna be so good. Yeah. I mean, I'm not helping myself in these negotiations, but.
- [30:52]
Matt Waldman
Yeah.
- [30:54]
Heath Cummings
Well, I will, I will say, like, I think one of the big takeaways for me is you rarely hear someone talked about as having the ability to carry the load for an entire game and being very explosive. Like, usually we hear of a guy who can carry the load for a whole game. We think, yeah, he's probably getting 5 yards max per carry and he just hammers the defense over and over. If you've got a guy that can do what he does and regularly break off 60 yard rushes. That's going to be a real problem for the NFL. But again, Ashton Genti is the 101. He's the number one running back in this class. Almost no one is going to argue with that. But the second running back in the consensus rankings, I've actually seen a couple of people elevate him for some reason ahead of Genti. And I, I noticed match and I know that you probably don't like being on the negative side of guys, but you are a little bit lower than consensus on Marian Hampton. And so I guess the first question has to be why?
- [31:57]
Matt Waldman
Yeah, well, because he has, he doesn't hold on the ball as well as the other guys who are ahead of him. And it's at a, it's at a range that's a little bit closer to danger based on the statistical work that, an analytical work that I do tracking players. Because one of the things that I put out last year over football guys is that after looking at six years worth of backs, and I'm probably gonna gone 20 years, but six years worth of backs and in recent times, everyone, I looked at all the backs who scored above and below the certain threshold that I have for ball security, rate how many fumbles per carry, you know, and if it's below a certain range, I have questions about whether they have the ability to ride the ride of the NFL and be reliable. And so the backs who fell below that range, only 10% of them based on their college fumble rates, improved enough to really generate RB2 production or better. Only 10%.
- [33:04]
Heath Cummings
Wow.
- [33:05]
Matt Waldman
And then only 3% were top 10 caliber fantasy running backs at one point in their career, just one out of six seasons they had to perform in one of those areas and only 3% did. Who were below that threshold. Well, Omarion Hampton isn't below that threshold, but he's certainly closer to that threshold than you would like to see from a big back. He, you know, when I look at his fumble rate right now, one per 74.6 touches, he has 373 touches with five fumbles. That's pretty low rate. One per 74. To me, if you're below like one per 60, that's the, that's the number. If you're, but if you're fumbling, coughing up the ball every 60 touches, that's a problem. That's, that happens every other game. That can happen every two to three games. You know, that's kind of the rate of what it can happen if you're considered the feature back or the main guy. So that. That's a bit of a lapse. Also, he's not as good of a pass protector as advertised. You know, I think people have trouble projecting pass protection because they look at success rate, but they don't project whether that success rate is, you know, comparable to what you're going to see in the NFL. Just because you get in a guy's way and show effort. That's what I hear a lot of media scouts say is, oh, as long as the effort's there, he's going to be fine. And I'm like, that's. That's great. Dante Foreman had a great success rate according to some services, but he dropped his head and. And telegraphed everything that he did. And, you know, defenders ate his lunch in the NFL early on in his career because of the fact that those things don't project well to the NFL. So Hampton has some issues where he overextends and they can just swim right over him and win the interaction. And that happens when you watch some of these plays, and it's a common occurrence against linebackers inside, you know, and while he got better in 2024, he didn't eliminate that issue from his game. It still happened too often. He gets jostled around a little bit too easily where, you know, he can rush his process and he's off balance when he hits. And because of that, defenders get the second opportunity to dictate terms. And so if your pass protection isn't strong, your ball carrying isn't great. Those are two things that really just separate him from the other guys. He's still got a grade that says to me, he can contribute right now, and he can and probably even start for you if you need him to. But these are things you're gonna have to watch out for, and that lowers his grade a little bit. And if I was really nitpicking, the final thing I'd say is maybe I think I have a realistic version of who he is, which is kind of a plus version of Tyler Algier. You know, a guy who could start and probably will start and be a really good B back to an A back, B back, backfield. Think of, like, David Montgomery. He could give you David Montgomery type of work. Nobody's going to sneeze at that and say that's bad in Detroit's offense. At the same time, though, I think people are overselling him because they see the size and they see the top end speed. What they're not considering is that his acceleration, his 20 shuttle which matches what I saw on tape and maybe even slightly better than what I saw on tape is is actually high end committee level work rather than starter or so he has more trouble getting to that top speed than what people understand. It's like sure, you run a 44 40, that's great, but if you can't get past the linebackers because your acceleration needs a big Runway for that to happen, then you're never going to get to show off that speed nearly as much as people expect. So it's not horrible. His acceleration isn't horrible, but I see him as more of that singles and doubles hitter than a home run hitter. Who's big. Think Latavius Murray. Think how Latavius Murray came in and people were all excited. He's big, he's strong, he's got that high end speed, but he never really seemed to break away all that often. I think O'Mary and Hampton's a little bit more along those lines, but a just a an all around better running back than Murray was early in his career. So.
- [37:35]
Heath Cummings
Jacob, one of the things I love about having Matt on is I, I've talked about this a lot during the season. There's certain players, generally running backs, that the fantasy community loves and we get frustrated with coaches for not giving them the ball as much as we would like. And it's because coaches value different things than fantasy managers do. And Matt often brings us a little bit more of that coach's perspective. So I appreciate that, but I do want to provide the full picture. And there, I mean, he's the consensus dynasty RB2 for a reason. Dynasty managers love the profile. What's so exciting about Hampton?
- [38:10]
Jacob Gibbs
Jacob what's exciting about Hampton is he can play all three downs and he can create yards on his own. For what it's worth, the past blocking metrics are good and he was used as a pass blocker a lot. I think Matt's perspective is definitely interesting on, on that and he knows more about, you know, watching and evaluating pass blocking than I do. But I didn't notice any clear problems there when I watched him. What, what I will say about Hampton is the singles and double stuff is right. He's very, very good. My favorite thing about watching him was his ability to get skinny on runs up the middle. The blocking was not always great at North Carolina, but he was able to turn plays that I think a lot of running backs would have been tackled at the line into singles and doubles rather than, you know, a foul out or whatever you want to use the metaphor Here he averaged six and a half yards per rush on runs up the middle. Only Damian Martinez had a higher rate on runs up the middle. He had 4.3 yards after contact per run up the middle. Him, Martinez and DJ Giddens were the only running backs above 4 yards after contact per up the middle rush. So that's an elite number. I, I think he, he's, he's a really interesting guy. If you, if you are into the yards after contact stuff, which a lot of really good running backs do have elite yardage after contact creation, he's up there with some of the best names. If you look at running backs who have had what was the qualifier, 400 career rushes and have been drafted in rounds two or rounds one, there are only five guys who have had over four yards after contact per rush. It's Travis Etn, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker, Jonathan Taylor, Ash and Jindy and Omarion Hampton projected to be in that group this year. I, I, what I worry about is if he gets into a situation where it's not a good fit, where they're going to be doing a lot of like outside zone type of rushing, his numbers did fall off there. So like the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that he's linked to sometimes that he could go on round one to Pittsburgh, I don't think that would necessarily be a great fit. And you know, Jalen Warren is good and so like in that kind of situation I would worry. But otherwise I think there's a good chance that he's going to just be a bell cow and be really good for fantasy, even if he does have some deficiencies.
- [40:24]
Heath Cummings
So Matt, I, I wanna, I like knowing your process. I know that if we go through the NFL draft and Hampton becomes a late round one pick, then he's going to move up in the rankings in terms of dynasty and it may be even an early round two pick. I'm not sure how much that distinction matters to you. Between the last 10 picks of round win one and the first 10 picks of round two, I, I guess how much is that going to matter? And it can even be not just about Hampton, but for all the backs. We're going to talk about when you've got your evaluation and like this and then if a team takes a chance on him at pick 25, how much does that elevate him in your mind?
- [41:06]
Matt Waldman
Yeah, I mean, I think that really anybody who scores over an 80 on my, in my process is someone that can contribute right now. So if you put them in and if you give him an early draft capital. Early draft capital is not a predictor of talent. People like to use that as shorthand. It's actually an indication of privilege because what it is is it allows the, the team doubles down on their investment and says we're going to give them all the opportunities to fail or succeed that we, that we should. They give more reps. They don't give, they don't have open competitions in the NFL very often. Well, the fact that James Robinson's coach had to ask for Doug Marone had to ask for permission from the front office to allow him to compete for the starting job that first year because the team that already soured on Leonard Fournette wanted to get rid of them. That, that's, that should tell you how things operate because that's indicative of that. So yes, if Hampton gets a first round pick, lands on a team, he's going to at least be one of the top two backs early on. And if he screws up as a fumbler or as a, or as, or with his pass pro and has some issues, maybe they'll cut back some of those touches. Just like with Tank Bigsby where he couldn't hold on to a ball and he looked great in camp. But then some of the things that he doesn't do well didn't work out. But I'd say that I think that Hampton's a better runner than Tank Bigsby is and he will probably succeed and I would give him a, a higher grade. I like the, the after contact metrics that, that Jacob brought up and I think that one of the things that I like to do in the RSP is I track my own because I find that, you know, when I looked at like back in the day, Saquon Barkley had a high after contact average per yardage. But when you watched his games, you'd say Barkley was a great back and had had the power. But they get, it's inflated. When someone slaps you on a thigh pad because you're speedy and it counts as 75 yards after contact on that run. That's different than Nick Chubb getting hammered by a linebacker through an A gap, runs through him and gets 7 yards with two guys wrapping them up, which one has more gravity to, to display power. So I break it down by like reaches, wraps and, and hits. And I count how many of them are done based on how many, how many times he was hit by a player. Not by touch, but how many opportunities someone squared off with them. And then look at the percentages and then I do that with tackles alluded as well. Now Hampton shows up pretty well in a lot of these. Like, you know, with wraps he's among the top. Looks like the top 15 broke about 4% of wraps against defensive linemen, which is pretty good. Doesn't sound like a high rate, but that's pretty good against 300 pound dudes, you know. And then I look at it, I separate it by linebacker and I say separate it by defensive back and you can see that Hampton, he's not the top guy. When I look at him from that standpoint, he's actually more in the top 15 to 20 guys who were like higher in that in those rates, you know, were, you know, I can certainly look at, you know, down the line. I'll look at in a little bit next segment here because I'm looking at the raw data rather than my own than what I did finalized in the rsp. But you know, from that standpoint, he, he has the power. He certainly does. But I would say that that's the fun part to look at this is that, is that like he's up there and should be fine. The again, the biggest separator for him is will the pass pro project and can you hold on to the ball?
- [44:45]
Heath Cummings
That will do it for Omari and Hampton. We're gonna take our second break. We've still got two Ohio State running backs left. We've got Caleb Johnson and Cam Scatter. Boo. After this.
- [44:54]
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- [44:57]
Matt Waldman
Streaming on Paramount plus and just giving the people what they want. I don't wanna from the director of the greatest showman, Betterman absolutely sizzles from start to finish. What are you gonna say?
- [45:07]
Five Hour Energy Representative
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- [45:09]
Matt Waldman
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- [45:15]
Jacob Gibbs
Nothing. It's only the biggest event in history.
- [45:20]
TurboTax Representative
Better man now streaming on Paramount. Rated R. What's up everyone? It's the counselor of Cash Siyanajad from the early Edge, a daily sports betting show powered by Sportsline and CBS Sports. If you're looking for the best bets, picks and analysis for the day in sports, we're your one stop shop. We are locked in with bets every day for the NBA, March Madness, golf, soccer and so much more. Download and follow us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and anywhere podcasts are found. Plus subscribe to the SportsLine YouTube page to watch us live at 10:00am Eastern Time daily. Make sure to turn on those notifications so you don't miss a single pick all season long.
- [45:52]
Matt Waldman
Good luck.
- [45:53]
Heath Cummings
So we're going to start with Treveon Henderson because he's currently the consensus number three back in this class. I'll tell you that when we get to Quin Sean Judkins after this, Matt's probably going to disagree. But Matt, I'll start with you. My per on Henderson is that if you're in a full PPR league, you'll probably be a little more excited than if you're in a half PPR league and a lot more excited than if you're in a non PPR league. Is his receiving profile where the upside lies?
- [46:19]
Matt Waldman
Yeah, it is. And because he is the. He is what people hoped DeAndre Swift would be as a talent. I think that he's a he. He's a good pass catcher who can get a little bit better but still good enough to play right away. He's, you know, he's got that great speed and very strong acceleration. He's a fantastic open field player. So they're going to try and get him in space as much as possible and they're going to do that with a lot outside runs, draw plays, they're going to use them a good bit on screens and then also down, you know, different types of schemed passes. So there's, there's a lot to value from him in that respect. And he's a better decision maker than, than DeAndre Swift ever was in the sense that DeAndre Swift's one of those players that in Philadelphia he looked good because you literally had a quarterback and an offensive line that forced defenders on read option that forced anywhere as many as two to three defenders to run after the quarterback. And when you take away two to three defenders at the line of scrimmage to go in the quarterback's direction, you have much easier decisions to make now. And, and I'd say Swift is more of a guy who bounces things outside too often and, and doesn't really take what's there as often as he should. Now, Travion Henderson can somewhat short circuit a little bit when the play isn't blocked up and goes exactly the way it's designed as schemed. But he is a good tight crease runner, whereas DeAndre Swift would see a tight crease and go, oh no, I'm not going there. Let me bounce that outside right. Trevion Henderson goes, that's blocked up the way it's supposed to be. I can see that. And I'll get skinny and hit it, you know, so he's good at that. But if he gets deals with penetration or something's off about how it's developing. That's when his footwork short circuits a little bit and you can see that he doesn't have an answer for what he needs to show there. But you're not featuring him like Damian Martinez or Quinshon Judkins, so most likely you're gonna feature him more. How you saw Travis at TN being featured or DeAndre Swift being featured in Detroit or Jameer Gibbs. And from that perspective, he's absolutely worth one of the top five picks in Detroit in a dynasty draft right now because of how he's going to be used if it's a PPR league.
- [48:53]
Heath Cummings
So Jacob, he, he talked a lot about how he's what we hoped DeAndre Swift would be. That the name that I've heard thrown around more often is I think maybe the more optimistic case, just a slightly lesser version of Jameer Gibbs. Do you think the numbers, Jacob, justify that comparison and where do you see the differences between those two?
- [49:13]
Jacob Gibbs
I don't. I, I do think Jimmy Gibbs is clearly tier above him and then also if you just watch them run, they're very different that I, this is a funny description but like as movers, I would compare Jameer Gibbs to like Allen Iverson and Trevin Henderson is like Kimba Walker or something like that. Like he's much, he's much more like start, stop, like jump jumping around and stuff like that where it's a different kind of like it bursts and explosiveness. He's very good. But like I don't, I don't. To me, Gibbs is rarefied air. I do. And the other thing is the receiving profile, the pass blocking is really good for Henderson. He had the second most career pass blocking reps in the class behind only Taj Brooks. And he only allowed a 4.6 pressure rate on those pass blocking snaps. So only Ollie Gordon and the Quint Allen had better rates among running backs with 100 plus pass blocking reps in their career. That's good. He can get on the field on passing downs for sure. But if you look at his actual receiving production, it wasn't Jameer Gibbs. It wasn't anything close honestly in terms of yard per out run or total receiving production. I think that that could be unlocked at the, at the next level. But it's a projection to, to put him in that kind of territory. What I, the only stat that I wanted to add on Henderson and I wanted to get Matt's perspective on this, I, I hear people think, say they speculate that he'd be good as like an outside zone rusher, which I think makes some sense given his speed, given his ability to make like one cut and hit it. But for what it's worth, in his career, he was much better as a man gap counter runner than he was on zone runs. 7.6 yards per run on manpower runs compared to 5.7 on zone runs. And Ohio State was primarily a zone rushing scheme before chip Kelly in 2024, and they moved more man runs. And we saw Hindo was unlocked last year. Career 7.11 yards rush in 2024. So do you think that that makes sense or do you think that he was just at his best last week? This is fourth season.
- [51:09]
Matt Waldman
No, I think that absolutely makes sense because, see, I always describe it this way. Zone running is very much like multiple choice, whereas man gap running is more like fill in the blank. So love it. You have to be. You actually have to be more strategic behind the line of scrimmage and set your blockers up and be better at processing the field as a zone runner. Because I know that Kyle Shanahan has taken some gap runners and made them outside zone runners and they've had some success. Stefan Coleman was eventually one of them. I would also say that I want to make sure my linebacker, my Levon Kirkland linebacker of a dog wasn't tearing up anything that he shouldn't be. But. But the. He's not. But the. I would say that when it comes to those choices, like with Tevin Coleman or with Elijah Mitchell, Kyle Shanahan likes to kind of gapify his outside zone scheme and simplify it because in most outside zone you have, you know, you have three choices to make. You, you either cram it up the middle where it's designed. You either cut it back, go behind the flow of the against the grain, or you bounce it outside and you're. And you have a chance to kind of do all three. So as a classic outside zone back, I could see how Trevion Henderson may not be as strong at that because I thought he was much better at. Here's the decision. Manipulate that one area and if it's not manipulatable, just take what's there and get whatever you can. Use your speed and with gap, you're really trying to use your speed and the most of the onus is on the offensive line to do their job and get that one crease open. Like that's their job. And where in zone, it's more like get in that way, get in the area, flow it in this one direction and let the back determine who he's going to set up. So I would say the more. The better processors are zone runners, but the better athletes at the running back position tend to be gap runners. And some guys do both really well. So I think if they transition to him to outside zone, outside zone's the best transition from man gap blocking to zone because you can make it more like, yeah, just hit this. I just want you to hit that mark. That's where Trey. Trey Sermon had difficulty in Shanahan's offense is because Sermon was more of a reader type, go slow and read it kind of like Leon Bell or. Or Frank Gore and. And Shanahan just wanted a guy who was more of a gap runner who was speedy and just hit that thing hard. I don't, you know, I don't care if it's open or not. Just get there and our blockers will help you get the push and get downfield.
- [54:07]
Heath Cummings
So you guys really kind of answered my third question. I was thinking more based on the fact that Henderson does need that pass catching role. I'm expecting he's going to be a day two pick. But even talking about his differences in the different schemes, it seems like amongst these other backs he may be as dependent as anybody on what team he lands with and what type of scheme they run, what type of role they have for a pass catching back.
- [54:34]
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, and I've got the teams, the coordinators that use the most man gap rushing. Right here. It's the Patriots and the Bengals, I think are two that could draft a running back that he would fit well with. Potentially the Giants, they. Dave, all used it about 32 of his runs last year. And then the team that uses it the most is the Rams. Using a ton of duo now. And that would just be such a fun fit. I don't know if fantasy managers would like it, but it would be such a fun fit.
- [54:54]
Heath Cummings
Yeah, Kyron Williams is just going to keep being ranked way too low and finishing at the top five running back and we're gonna have to live with it. I do want to move on because we've still got three backs left. Quinn, Sean, Judkins. Now this. Matt is your favorite Buckeye running back. Is he the second best pure rusher in this class?
- [55:13]
Matt Waldman
Yeah, I think so. I think he's. There's a very close third maybe there. I'd say they're tied for second. Is. Is my guy Taj Brooks. But. But I would say that Judkins, when you look at what he can do. He's proven he can play in a man gap scheme, that he can run in his own scheme. So the versatility of at playing at a high level in both those schemes exists. He's a tackle breaker. You know, when I looked at my finished data, by the way, you know, look at Omarion Hampton, he bounced off, you know, you know, he was able to bounce off 80% of the hits that he had against defensive linemen this year. That's pretty high. You know, John T. Was seven for seven, by the way, in that. In that. At 100% and Martinez was just above Hampton. Judkins, though, against linebackers is higher than, than Hampton. He's at an 89% rate, whereas Hampton was an 85% rate. Still good, you know, and so. And with Judkins, he was the best against defensive backs, 11 to 12, 92% whereas Hampton was 14 and 19 for 74%. So Judkins does all those things well in between the tackles. He has enough burst to get outside. He has the speed to flip the field and maybe even break away at times. And he has pretty good hands that I think will get better in terms of what you're looking for because the flaws that he has are minor and even receivers have them when they come into the league and clean it up. He'll be a good leak option, you know, for, for check downs and screenplays and that's all you're looking for there. And he has shown some propensity to be able to win one on one against linebackers with man routes. He's shown the techniques that you're looking for that will translate to that. So, yeah, I'm a. I think that, you know, for me, when you're scoring pre draft, you know, what's more important is what are the number of things a player can do at a high level that a running back position allots for and because you don't know where he's going to land every once in a while. We do get the stupidity factor in the NFL where a team picks somebody that does not match what the team wants to do because the GM and the coach are in a, in a contest, in a spitting contest, basically, and don't get along well. And the GM decides we're gonna pick this guy because this is my team and the running. And the coach is like, no, this is my offense. And yeah, I know you picked the Sam laporta type, but I need a run blocker, so I'm gonna fatten this guy's behind up and render him Useless, you know, and I'm not even wrote that about Laporta a couple years ago, and I had a scout write me laughing, going, this happens way more often than. Than most people realize. So I appreciate the fact that you said Laporta can be good as long as this dynamic doesn't happen. So Judkins is a better fit, wider for a wider range of teams. And my dog is a linebacker. He does not like Quinton Judkins.
- [58:16]
Heath Cummings
You can hear his protest in the background. Jacob, what do the numbers say about Judkins and what do you think his. Like we talk about with Henderson, his teammate, The. The PPR upside is the thing that kind of elevates Henderson, maybe in that format. What do you think Judkin's receiving upside is?
- [58:31]
Jacob Gibbs
I think that he looks natural as a receiver at times. Like, so if you watch the film, I think that you could project it, but it does have to be a projection. He did not have a route rate. A route rate. So it was like the percentage of the team's drop X he ran a route on was below 50 in all three of his seasons. And so I did an exercise trying to find comparisons for Judkins because not only does he have that, but he has really middling rushing efficiency metrics. And so what I did is I looked up running backs who scored 200 or more PPR points in a season. He did that all three seasons at the collegiate level. But they also had a route rate below 50% and then found running backs who were similar to him in having low rushing success rate, a high stuffed rate, and low yards after contact, which, you know, basically they're getting there through volume. And the running backs that profile similarly since 2017 are Ty Chandler, Bryce Love, Kevin Harris, Izzy Abanakanda, Chase Brown, Braylon Allen, and Nick Chubb. That's not a great list, but it's, you know, Nick Chubb is on that list. Braylon Allen could be good. Is he Nick Chubb? Some people compare him to Nick Chubb and like, if he is Nick Chubb, then fine, maybe none of this will matter. But I. I do have concerns when I dig into his. His profile, just making sense of it because he looks good as a rusher to me. Matt, I want to ask you Specifically about 2023, his final season at Ole Miss, he had a 41 rushing success rate and averaged 4.3 yards per rush. And if you compare that to the running backs in Ole Miss's backfield that weren't him, they had 114 carries combined. So it's not a tiny sample size. They had a 55 rushing success rate and 5.8 yards per rush. Do you have any insight as to why the metrics were so bad, 4.3 yards per rush at Ole Miss in 2023?
- [60:21]
Matt Waldman
Yeah, this is the, this is the classic Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott. Yeah, that happens everywhere. Where they, you get the smaller back who gets a smaller amount of touches, who's speedier and who's used in, in scenarios where defenses are thinking possibly pass a little bit more and they're not high leverage situations where they're not getting the short yardage looks, they're not getting the goal line looks as often.
- [60:49]
Jacob Gibbs
I actually removed his goal line runs and his short yardage runs and they good 4.4 instead of 4.3. He still only averaged 1 yard before contact, which is like.
- [60:59]
Matt Waldman
Yeah, but that's still. When you still look at it though, if you have, if you have Quin Sean Judkins on, if you had Ezekiel Elliott on the field and it's still like near his prime and you have early career Tony Pollard on the field in his prime, which one are defense is going to say, oh yeah, we need to pay more attention to that guy. Which ones are going to actually, how are they going to, how do they respond in terms of reading keys? You know, their early keys are going to be on Elliot more often than their early keys were going to be on Tony Pollard, at least during the earlier part of those looks. Also, how many men in the box and how he handles those types of things. That's why like the, the, the value of the, the, the data that you presented certainly has a good layer of information to it and it's definitely worth looking into. I would also argue though that with the context of how does the player deal with situations that are difficult. And I would argue that like the, you know, I looked at like the Tampa backs last year, people were like begging to get Bucky Irving on the field. But watching that, watching those plays Irving oftentimes received the types of plays that you look at that and go it, it really didn't matter who was running the ball in that offense based on the play decisions that they gave and the down and distance decisions that they gave the other players on that backfield would have earned positive of enough yards that we wouldn't be overly concerned about it.
- [62:31]
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, just the last thing I'll add is that he did have the highest career light boxes face rate of any running back that I evaluated. So this is the percentage of runs that came with six or fewer defenders in the box, that shocked me. And it's, I don't, I just don't know what to make of him. And I worry that, like, if he doesn't have rushing efficiency, he's gonna have a hard time getting their fantasy because the receiving is probably not going to be there.
- [62:56]
Matt Waldman
Yeah. And I think that that's the thing is that when you look at it from that standpoint, you also understand that at Ole Miss they ran more of a spread offense. So the boxes are going to be lighter, but still you're going to see situations where if you're, if you have six men in the box, that may seem like a light box, but if you only have five, if you only have five linemen and you don't have a tight end in there, and it's still, it's still from a man to man box count scenario, the defense still is going to have the advantage on a lot of those plays. So really, when you scheme it up sometimes like that, that context is important.
- [63:34]
Heath Cummings
Okay, that's awesome. Awesome stuff, guys. And exactly what we were hoping to do. We've got two backs left, and I want to get Matt out of here. Caleb Johnson is RB5 according to the consensus. Matt, and this is one of those guys. And we saw, we mentioned Bucky Irving. We saw it with Bucky Irving last year, maybe for different reasons, but went to the combine. Everybody hated what he did at the combine. He fell down dynasty ranks. Then he got on the field, he's soared up dynasty ranks. Do we even care what happened with Caleb Johnson at the combine?
- [64:08]
Matt Waldman
No, because he's an outside zone runner. That's the best thing he does. Now. He can run gap, he can run, you know, counter and different types of things effectively. But what he does really well is kind of the, the longer Runway, outside zone type of approach to his game. He is the, the biggest issues with him are more about pass protection. You know, that's his, that's where he has some struggles with his game. And that's the only difference that really knocked him down my rankings overall. But his score overall is very close to an instant starter, which means that an instant starter in any situation that you would put him in, if you put him in outside zone, he's going to be one of my top three to five backs. And that's most likely what's going to happen. Because everybody I know and their mother who was like a who, who's in football has been saying, you know, for years, you know, for years or not for years, but for months has basically been saying, yeah, I mean, Caleb Johnson, he's, he's the classic case of a pure outside, you know, outside zone guy. That's going to fit well for him so he can plug in a play immediately. The fourth, just because he ran a slower number than everybody else and in this fast 40 combine scenario, doesn't mean anything to me, still ran that number. That's allows you to say he's fast enough, you know, and to me, fast enough is can you flip the field? Can you, can you get, you know, honestly fast enough for me is can you, can you beat some linebackers on occasion? You know, not whether you can beat cornerbacks and safeties because count the number of runs that you have that are impactful and most of Those runs aren't 40, 50, 60 yard runs, they're 10 to 15 yard runs.
- [65:56]
Jacob Gibbs
His speed shows up on film. He's beating linebackers a lot if you watch him play. Yep, I, I do worry about the outside zone specific fit because if you look at the teams that use a lot of outside zone, not many of them actually need running backs in this, in this draft. So you've got the Atlanta Falcons, number one, San Francisco 49ers could take him, but obviously FCMC, the Saints. So that play caller is now in Seattle. They don't need a running back. The Lions, the Texans, they have a new play car from the McVeigh tree. Don't even know if they'll be using as much outside zone. The jets new play caller from Detroit. So probably outside zone, but they don't really need a running back. The Dolphins, the Panthers, the Vikings, none of them really need a running back.
- [66:37]
Heath Cummings
Dolphins are interesting.
- [66:40]
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, I think the best fit by far is the Steelers. I think Arthur Smith would love to have Caleb Johnson. The only thing there though is they only have two top 100 picks. They have 21 and then they have 83. So if he falls to 83, perfect. But if he goes to somebody in the second round that isn't a good fit, like I would be pretty worried because they're really drastic splits between his outside zone runs and all of his other runs.
- [67:02]
Heath Cummings
Would you say Matt landing spot matters more or for Johnson or for Henderson?
- [67:09]
Matt Waldman
I would say it probably matters more. I would say it's spot equal, to be honest, because it's just for different reasons. And when you look at Johnson, here's the other thing is that, you know, I think that when you look at plugging it in from a, it's a good way to look at it is to say let's, let's plug in the player to the scheme fit or the coaches and what they have and what, what's going on. But also if they draft a player that early, it's more likely that they will decide they're going to try and opt for a, a different scheme. Sure, they're going to make an adjustment to their scheme, but I think he's going to fall to 80. I don't think he's going to be a first or second round pick. I think he's probably going to be more like a 4th round pick or maybe even a 5th round pick.
- [67:55]
Jacob Gibbs
The other thing I had on Johnson is he only had 36 Pass Pro reps in 2024. That was the fourth lowest in the class. So they didn't have him protect very often. He only had 22 receptions in his final season, only 29 for his career. And you know, context it is Iowa, which doesn't pass very much, but still it's the projection if you're expecting him to play more than early downs. And so now we're getting really specific and really thin margins for this player. And in a class with a lot of running backs who have, you know, a lot more variable paths to success, I'd be very, very hesitant to take Caleb Johnson unless the draft.
- [68:31]
Matt Waldman
And I think the numbers are a good thing in the standpoint of like, it's, it's about how you color in the lines compared to other, you know, staying in the box from that standpoint. One things that I like about being able to chart players is that because all number, all data is a small sample size in the NFL. I mean it's, it's too small to be unbelievably predictable, just like, you know, so. But one of the things that you, you try and do is you look for techniques that, that can be predictable and he lacks some of those techniques. So even with the, what you're saying, with the small sample size and that being worrisome, I'd add on if you're even going to go the opposite end and say, well, looking at the context of what he did on the field and showing technique and concept, he had some issues that he has to work on.
- [69:12]
Heath Cummings
There may have been a reason it was a small sample size. This is what you're saying.
- [69:16]
Jacob Gibbs
I think it's, I think it's totally fair to think that Damian Martinez and Cam Scatter are just better players, you know, and that's to me, where we get into this range with him is like, I Just these guys I feel safer with. And then they also might honestly be better rushers. Like.
- [69:30]
Heath Cummings
Well I, I will tell you Jacob, that was an excellent transition and Matt has both Damien Martinez and Cam Scatterboo as better ranked higher in his pre draft running back rankings. Then you made a special request, Jacob, and we like to honor your request, especially after I made the number one overall pick reference earlier in the show. And so you sent me an email. You said, can I please. I'm requesting two to three minutes to do a quick deep dive on Scatterboo.
- [69:58]
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, Scatterboot can do so much. So first I just want to say career scrimmage yards per game 135 ashen ginties 1412024 scrimmage yards per game 178 ashen ginti 196. Like elite producer. And then if you look at the way that he did that, watch the film and then also if you want to contextualize it with the stats, no matter what your process is, I think you'll come to the conclusion that he is a very, very complete back as a receiver, as a runner. The one clear red flag is his pass protection. I'm curious to hear Matt's take on that. But unlike a lot of college backs, he did some non shotgun running. Most of these systems are almost exclusively shotgun, but Arizona State did use some under center runs. He was more effective on those than he was on shotgun runs. Arizona State also used a really balanced schematic rushing attack, tons of counters, man and gap concepts. Good mix of inside to outside zone runs. He that, that to me is exciting. I think that he can do a lot of different things. I think he's at his best on the man gap runs, which makes sense given his skill set. But he can, he has experience with all of it. I, I just loved his film. Jump cuts are awesome. Powerful leg drive to work around or through defenders. And he's also, I think really great at manipulating space, whether that's blockers or just creating angles to beat defenders with deceptive movements prior to contact. He's creative. He has contact balance. I think like in a lot of ways he's not nearly as athletic as Ashton Genti, but in a lot of ways in the ways that he wins, it's sort of similar to Janti. He's. He's very, very difficult to tackle. He has a very low center of gravity and very strong legs and all that is borne out in his avoided tackle rates. 38 career avoided tackle rate for Ash and Genti 35 for Cam Scatterbo. And that only increased as he played better competition, which I think is noteworthy as well. I just think he's legitimately one of the best rushes in the class. And he offers receiving upside if he's able to get onto the field, which could be a problem because it's pass protecting. But if you just look at his receiving production in College, nearly 1400 career receiving yards, 605 in his final season. The only two other running backs that have been drafted in the NFL since 2017 to have 600 or more receiving yards in a season are Saquon Barkley and Kenneth Gainwell. His career yard per run rate is 1.84. For reference, Saquon Barkley was 1.96. It's elite territory. Bucky Irving was 1.45. Treveon Henderson was 1.21. Scatter Boobs was 1.84. And then last season when he had 600 yards, it was 2.27. That was better than any rate Saquon ever had. So to me, he's very complete and I think he could. Any, any team that he. He lands on, I think he's going to be able to carve out a role. And I think he's the kind of guy, kind of like Taj Brooks, where a team could just fall in love with him, an offensive line is going to fall in love with him, coaching staff is going to fall in love with him. My ideal fit is pairing with the Cowboys and let Javonte Williams handle the pass block. I think if he gets a situation like that, he could do what Bucky Irving did where he just slowly takes over the lead back role. And by the end of the season he's getting all of the important touches.
- [73:10]
Heath Cummings
So, Matt, this is Jacob perfectly highlighted. The question that I wanted to ask is there are people who just absolutely love Cam Scatter Boo and then there are people and like, maybe it's just because, like Tyler Schuck, you can't say Cam Scatter Boo's name the right way if you're reading his name, because it doesn't look like what it sounds like. And that is. But. But why do you think that he is such a frustrating or not frustrating polarizing running back prospect?
- [73:41]
Matt Waldman
You know, I mean, I think that part of that is, is that it depends on how people evaluate the game. Yeah. So some people are much more superficial in how they evaluate the game and they may not see the level of skill that he displays. And so I think there's. There's always been a level of superficiality with that. There's also maybe that on a level of maybe big draft level of media that they may also talk to scouts a little bit more to inform their opinions about where these guys are going to go. So their evaluations are more about where this guy's going to get drafted as much as it is about looking at talent. I try to look at an unvarnished look at talent and then focus after the draft of what opportunities are going to look like and help that for fantasy players. Because you're not going to learn about football just listening to somebody say, well I, you know, because the somebody at, you know, somebody@NFL.com who I'm not bang on anybody. They're very talented people and do great work, but they're trying to deliver for you where these guys are going to get drafted. I'm trying to deliver for you who I think is going to be good and not with the risk management exercise of who owners want to invest the most in. So they're looking, they may talk to somebody like Cam Sco and look at him and, or look at, talk to coaches or talk to scouts and scouts may say maybe there's some maturity issues there, maybe there's some things off the field that we have to be concerned about. And they may be lowering him a little bit, baking that into it. I can't say he has any of that for sure, but I can say the only thing I, you know, everything that Jacob said I thought was, you know, great analysis and I wouldn't add anything to his game from that. Anything to add about that other than that as a pass protector, as Jacob led off with, is that, you know, if he wants to shorten his career, he can continue doing what he's doing as a pass protector, get concussed a few times and then he, he will have a shorter career than what we thought Tua Tonga by Loa was about to have because he, he does not use his hands. He literally, it's like he comes off the ropes and in AEW WWE and leads with the head, you know, into the chest. He's like trying to be Earl Campbell in the against the LA Rams. And that in that iconic run where he lowers his head into the chest of a defender and he does that repeatedly. He's just, he gives up sacks, he gives up pressures, he forces quarterbacks to, to run for their lives because he's trying to kill people with the tip of it with the front of his helmet than he is trying to do things in a technically sound fashion. If he can fix that, you know, he's at the very least comparable to a David Montgomery type of back. I would say he's even back who I thought was better than that, but unfortunately had some maturity issues off the field and how he approached his professionalism of trying to stay on the field was Ontario Smith from way back in the day. He runs a lot like Ontario Smith. Low center of gravity, great balance, good quickness, the ability to make people miss, run through them, run over them, run around him, and a good pass receiver. Smith was a terrific back. He just, you know, he had higher, he had other priorities. You know, I'd say higher priorities probably make sense. Not pun intended.
- [77:09]
Heath Cummings
That is Cam Scatterboo. That is part one of the Rookie Running Back Preview. Thank you to Jacob, thank you to Thomas. Thank you so much for being here. Matt, one more time. Just tell everybody where they can find the RSP and what you've got coming up.
- [77:25]
Matt Waldman
Sure, Matt. Waldman.com/draft will be coming no later than a week after the third day of the NFL draft and you get both for 2195. 20 years of doing this, you know, certainly I appreciate you guys having me on. It's been fun meeting you, Jacob and I appreciated us getting a chance to have a good conversation about a variety of things, both analytical, data wise and, and from a football perspective on the, on the, from the film, you know. So this was great.
- [77:54]
Jacob Gibbs
Yeah, this was awesome. Sorry I went long, Heath. I had so many questions I could ask. Matt. We could have been here for three hours easily.
- [78:00]
Heath Cummings
Well, the good news is Jacob will be back on Tuesday for the Running Back Preview part two. We will talk to you on Tuesday.
- [78:18]
H
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