FFT Dynasty - Jayden Daniels QB1? Debates on LaPorta, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson & More! (05/16 Fantasy Football Dynasty)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: FFT Dynasty - Jayden Daniels QB1? Debates on LaPorta, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson & More! (05/16 Fantasy Football Dynasty)

Release Date: May 16, 2025

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Introduction and Guest Appearance

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Heath Cummings welcomes Tommy Blair from the Super Flex Super Show, part of the DLF Podcasts. Heath expresses enthusiasm about bringing new voices into the Dynasty fantasy football community after a period dominated by draft preparation. Tommy introduces himself and his work, highlighting his involvement in the Super Flex Super Show alongside co-host John Hogue, a renowned figure in the fantasy space.

Heath Cummings [01:06]: "Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, and we've got a great show for you today."

Fundraiser and Community Impact

Tommy discusses an upcoming 24-hour live stream fundraiser aimed at raising money for the Children's Miracle Network Hospitals. He emphasizes the significant impact of the organization's efforts, having raised approximately $130 million since its inception. Both hosts agree on the underrated capacity of the fantasy community to positively influence broader initiatives.

Tommy Blair [02:42]: "This organization that we're raising money for has raised like $130 million since its inception. And this money goes directly to kids."

Quarterback Rankings and Super Flex Strategies

Heath initiates a deep dive into quarterback rankings, particularly focusing on the challenges of managing high-upside, low-floor quarterbacks in Super Flex formats. The discussion centers around Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, and Jaylen Milroe, examining their potential longevity and impact in dynasty leagues.

Heath Cummings [04:58]: "How do you handle guys like that, potential league winners who super flex format could also really drag you down."

Tommy elaborates on the stark differences between one-QB and Super Flex leagues, stressing the importance of certainty and longevity at the quarterback position in dynasty formats.

Tommy Blair [06:45]: "In super Flex, it's totally different... I really value certainty and longevity at the quarterback position because I think that can be leveraged in really interesting ways."

Evaluating Specific Quarterbacks

The conversation delves into the career arcs of the trio:

• Anthony Richardson is viewed as having a high upside but inherent risks, placing him as Tommy's top choice among the three.
• Justin Fields is seen as more stable, but concerns about his long-term starting potential linger.
• Jaylen Milroe offers value with the possibility of accruing value akin to Jalen Hurts.

Tommy Blair [07:19]: "Anthony Richardson is kind of the just right portion of this three bears analogy in that he could succeed... that's what puts him as my number one of these three quarterbacks."

Trade Value of Veteran QBs vs. Rookies

Heath and Tommy discuss the trade dynamics involving veteran quarterbacks like Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, and Matthew Stafford in exchange for promising rookies such as Jackson Dart and Tyler Shuck. The conversation highlights the complexities of valuing experienced players against emerging talents in dynasty leagues.

Heath Cummings [09:11]: "Are there any veteran sure-fire starters that you would trade for a late first, early second in a rookie draft to take Dart or Shuck?"

Favorite Quarterback Values: Mahomes vs. Hurts

The debate shifts to Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, analyzing their consistency, reliability, and future trajectory compared to other elite quarterbacks like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Concerns about the aging of Allen and Jackson contrast with Mahomes' sustained performance.

Tommy Blair [10:53]: "Do you think we've gotten tired of Patrick Mahomes?... why would we inflate Jaden Daniels above those players until he hits the second time?"

Jaden Daniels as QB1 in Dynasty

Heath raises a pivotal question about why Jaden Daniels isn't considered a top-tier quarterback in dynasty formats despite impressive rookie performances. Tommy provides an analytical perspective, referencing Jordan McNamara's study on first-round quarterback performance consistency.

Heath Cummings [13:07]: "Why isn't Jaden Daniels the QB1 in Dynasty?"

Tommy Blair [13:18]: "Why would we inflate Jaden Daniels above those players until he hits the second time?"

Running Back Analysis: James Cook's Risk vs. Reward

The discussion transitions to running back James Cook, exploring his current form, contract situation, and potential as a dynasty asset. Both hosts express caution, considering his inconsistent performance and contract uncertainties.

Heath Cummings [21:39]: "Is James Cook a ten dynasty running back just a huge risk right now?"

Tommy Blair [22:51]: "I think there's a lot of accessibility to these elder running backs right now. There's a lot of really exciting prospects in your rookie drafts."

Wide Receiver Spotlight: Garrett Wilson's Performance Dilemma

Garrett Wilson's fluctuating performance metrics spark a detailed analysis. Tommy describes Wilson as an "elite separator" yet struggles with on-field execution, drawing comparisons to Deontay Johnson and Antonio Brown. Heath echoes these sentiments, expressing skepticism about Wilson's consistency and efficiency.

Tommy Blair [24:44]: "Garrett Wilson is the best or among the very best in the entire NFL before the football is thrown and he is so average after the reception is made."

Heath Cummings [25:37]: "I think he's just Deontay Johnson. He's just Deontay Johnson."

Tight End Dynamics: Sam LaPorta's Potential

The focus shifts to tight end Sam LaPorta, with Tommy comparing him to George Kittle in terms of route participation and offensive involvement. While acknowledging LaPorta's solid performance metrics, both hosts remain cautious about projecting elite fantasy production without significant changes in his offensive environment.

Tommy Blair [29:02]: "Sam Laporta is right on the edge or hurdling those numbers in both of his seasons."

Heath Cummings [30:26]: "It's a little bit of pushback... the George Kittle path is a narrow path."

Listener Questions and Strategic Trades

During the show, various listener questions are addressed, including trade evaluations and strategic decisions. One notable trade discussed involves CJ Stroud for Patrick Mahomes, highlighting the premium value traded for sustained elite performance.

Heath Cummings [37:35]: "It's an easy one from M grade the trade I traded CJ Stroud and 3.1 for Patrick Mahomes."

Tommy Blair [38:20]: "And I love the trade. It's a great trade. Get into Mahomes but also in your other leagues maybe get into some Stroud as well."

Final Thoughts on Quarterback and Wide Receiver Risks

In closing segments, the hosts delve into the risks associated with stacking quarterbacks and wide receivers, particularly examining players like Kyler Murray and Chris Olave. They debate the balance between upside and injury risks, emphasizing the importance of strategic roster construction in dynasty formats.

Tommy Blair [43:30]: "He falls into a tier somewhere around wide receiver 18 to 45... it's a matter of if you've got an arbitrage opportunity to get into Chris Olave, you're willing to take the injury risk."

Conclusion

Heath and Tommy wrap up the episode by reiterating the complexities and strategic considerations of dynasty fantasy football, especially within Super Flex leagues. They encourage listeners to engage with their content and participate in community discussions, promising continued insights and analysis in future episodes.

Heath Cummings [45:46]: "Thank you, Tommy Blair, for making everything work. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you next Tuesday."

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Key Takeaways:

• Super Flex Dynasty Strategies: Emphasis on quarterback longevity and managing high-upside, low-floor QBs.

• Player Evaluations: Critical analysis of QBs like Jaden Daniels and running backs like James Cook, balancing risks and rewards.

• Wide Receiver and Tight End Insights: Scrutiny of Garrett Wilson's performance consistency and Sam LaPorta's potential impact.

• Trade Dynamics: Strategic trading discussed, highlighting the value of elite players like Patrick Mahomes against emerging talents.

• Community Engagement: Active listener participation and fostering of charitable initiatives within the fantasy football community.

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For more insights and detailed analyses, tune in to the next episode of Fantasy Football Today.

Transcript

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[Heath Cummings]

Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings and we've got a great show for you today. I wanted to kind of turn back the clock a little bit because when I started this show two or three years ago, one of the things I really wanted to do was bring people on from the Dynasty fantasy football community that I hadn't had conversations with before. The last month or two, it's been so heavy with draft prep that I've just kind of gone back to the same guys. We've got somebody new for you today. It's Tommy Blair from the Super Flex Super Show. Tommy, thank you for being here and tell everybody where they can find your work and what you've been working on.

[Tommy Blair]

Heath, thanks for the invite, man. This is a really cool opportunity. I'm so glad to join you and your listeners today. Yeah, I'm Tommy Blair at fftommyb over on Blue Sky. I am one half of the duo that does the Super Flex super show, one of the DLF podcasts where we talk about during the non point scoring season all sorts of different stuff, physics and ecology, psychology, unregulated markets, like really wild stuff. And then when lineup season starts, we're all actionability, what moves to make, what strategies to employ, what you're doing if you're rebuilding, contending somewhere in the middle. So it's a great mix. I really love it. I love being on with John Hogue who's sort of a legend in the fantasy space.

[Heath Cummings]

You know, one of the things I do when I have somebody on is I kind of go through their recent social media feed and see what they've been doing or what they have coming up. And I saw that you're going to be part of a 24 hour live stream next week. So tell everybody what that's about.

[Tommy Blair]

Totally riding the coattails here of my good friend Justin with Fantasy Now. Plus he stays on 24 hours lives like continuous to raise money for the Children's Miracle Network hospitals. And so he does a fundraiser every single year. He brings on all sorts of great guests. This is my first year, I got the 6am slot. So all those early risers that are your listeners, please join us because it's for a great cause. I mean this organization that we're raising money for has raised like $130 million since its inception. And this money goes directly to kids, right? Like this is a legitimately great cause and it's one of the best parts of being in the fantasy and being an analyst is having the opportunity to join these types of causes to do good in the world. I think that's something that the fantasy space has really been underrated in terms of its capacity to impact in a positive way our communities.

[Heath Cummings]

Everybody, you guys know that I agree with everything Tommy just said and I will say there will be a link in the show descriptions both in the podcast and here on YouTube if you would like to contribute to the cause. I would love it if you could do that on today's show. It's kind of a selfish show. I've got some questions, I need some answers. Tommy's going to help me answer those questions. There are questions about Jaden Daniel, Sam Laporta, even James Cook. We will get to those shortly. We start start every show with three questions for our guest. And since Tommy's a super flex guy, these are going to be super flex questions. And this is actually another thing that I've really struggled with in my rankings because I think the answer is much different in one QB versus super flex leagues. How are you hand the the ranking or just roster management for the these? We got three, I think really high upside, low floor quarterbacks. Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields, Jaylen Milro. I think we all feel pretty confident if Those guys start 16 games a season for the next three or four years, they're definitely going to produce like top 10 quarterbacks. We all also kind of feel like none of those guys may be starting quarterbacks in 2026. So how do you handle guys like that, potential league winners who super flex format could also really drag you down.

[Tommy Blair]

I couldn't agree more that these assets are treated very differently in one quarterback leagues versus super flex leagues. Right. So whenever I'm playing in a one quarterback league, it's upside at the quarterback position and there's a lot of consumability to that spot because the values are so low. And so if you want to take a high upside, bet on one of these quarterbacks in a one quarterback league like you can pay pennies on the dollar and you can just roll with the losses year over year. You can churn the position if you need to and if you hit aces, if let's say Justin Fields does really well this year and gets a long term contract, that's awesome. You know, you've got something for the long term and you can sort of pare down the quarterback position around him. In super Flex it's totally different at least in how I play fantasy and dynasty. I really value certainty and longevity at the quarterback position because I think that can be leveraged in really interesting ways. And when I think of these three quarterback Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields and Jalen Milroe, I almost think of the three little bears. Heath, I don't know if that rings true to you at all. Where Justin Fields, he's sort of like the papa bear. He's been through the sort of ins and outs of the NFL. He's had multiple opportunities now, which I think is a good thing. I think it's reflective of his draft capital. When you take a quarterback who's been drafted in the NFL in your rookie drafts, who is, you know, a first round pick, a very high first round pick, you see these multiple opportunities to not only succeed but to fail and get a future shot. That said, like how many starts would you say he are left in Justin Fields career? For me personally, I put the over under around 12. That's really sort of the bar that I'm thinking in terms of what I can firmly expect for the rest of Justin Fields career. Does that seem low? Does that seem high to you?

[Heath Cummings]

You know, I think the, my biggest problem is in getting to that number because he could play eight really good games at the start of this year and have a new deal, I think it's less likely. Like the separation for Fields is in the fact that unless he gets hurt, I think he's probably starting 17 games this year whereas Richardson still has to win a job. Now I don't actually believe that unless Richardson falls on his face. Daniel Jones is going to take that job from him. How would you. I guess I'll finish with this. How would you rank those three in Dynasty?

[Tommy Blair]

Well, I put Anthony Richardson sort of a few years back from the career arc of Justin Fields and say that I almost expect him to fail. But the Dynasty market is already assuming that Anthony Richards, Anthony Richardson is going to fail. I think there are future opportunities on the horizon for Richardson and so he's sort of the, the just right portion of this three three bears analogy in that he could succeed, he could, he could win out and succeed. And when you look at the early season returns on Anthony Rich over last year and his rookie year, he was something like a one fantasy point per drop back player which is near God status. That's elite of the elite. You know, a quarterback has a real difficult time sustaining that, but that's in the range of outcomes for Richardson and that's what puts him as my number one of these, these three quarterbacks. And then there's a second tier. It's really do you want to consume the starts that are left in Justin Fields or do you want to take on the value upside of a Jalen Melroe? Because I do think although the draft capital is less for A Milroe, that there is the opportunity to A accrue value and B to get those meaningful starts. Something like the Jalen hurts career trajectory, you know.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I've got it. Fields and Richardson kind of right there together and Milroe behind them. I may be factoring in a little too much certainty that Fields is going to start this, the entire season this year. Let's go ahead and move on to those sure fire starters because we have a couple of quarterbacks that were drafted this year. Jackson Dart actually got into the first round, but Tyler Schuck actually, actually has less competition. It appears to start as a rookie and I'm wondering especially if maybe you were in a rebuild. Are there any veteran. You talk about how you value those surefire starters, but some of these guys are getting pretty old. Are there any veteran surefire starters that you would trade for a late first, early second in a rookie draft to take dart or shuck?

[Tommy Blair]

We're in a really interesting time, aren't we Heathen in the Super Flex Dynasty rankings at quarterback where the upper crust is in their mid to late 20s, there's a few guys that you know, when you get down into the QB2 range, you know they're in their mid-30s. We're talking like Geno Smith Maybe they're few and far between. If you look back a decade, if we were to rewind the dynasty calendar, we would have a lot of, you know, those aged quarterbacks, I'm thinking like Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, that's not part of the dynasty landscape right now. And so finding elder statesman quarterbacks to trade for these young players is kind of difficult in my opinion. Where I place Dart in rookie drafts is all the way up to like the 104 or the 105. But in the dynasty tiers I think he belongs somewhere with JJ McCarthy or Michael Penix or maybe Tua Tunga Bailoa. It's all younger guys but that's sort of the lower QB2 tier that I would place. Jackson Dart and then Tyler Schuck is a little bit below there. I would love to trade Geno or maybe Sam Darnold to get into shuck today.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I've got Darnold just ahead of Darton Chuck, I've got Gino right between them and then the one name you didn't say that is probably may just be a one year option. Like I'd be happy to trade Matthew Stafford for either one because I don't know that Matthew Stafford plays again after this year and that might still be a deal that if somebody has the 112 and one of those guys has fallen to that spot and they say, you know, I'd rather have Stafford this year than bet on one of these rookies that I'm not sure are that good anyway. So I think that's the range though. The Gino Stafford, maybe Darnold range are kind of the veterans you might target if you're trying to make that type of move. Finally, I'll just ask you who is your favorite quarterback value in Dynasty super flex leagues?

[Tommy Blair]

Heath, do you think we've gotten tired of Patrick Mahomes? I know that like he's not, he hasn't been scoring over 20 points per game very frequently except late in the year. But the consistency, the reliability, the longevity that we see in Patrick Mahomes and I'll add Justin Herbert to that list now I wonder if the Dynasty market is chasing something that is a little bit sexier and maybe foregoing these reliable options that have not only proven to be stable assets but have very elite upside when they hit their ceiling outcomes.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I do think it's really interesting because obviously everybody for this year would rather have Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and I think for Dynasty everybody would as well.

[Tommy Blair]

But.

[Heath Cummings]

But I've kind of had this question. As Allen and Jackson approach age 30, is their game going to age as well as Mahomes does? And so I think you bring up a good point. I don't have him too far behind those guys in terms of tiers or overall value, and I think that you could probably get a pretty significant piece if you were moving off one of those guys and going to Mahomes. Let's take our first break and then when we get back, we'll get to my burning questions.

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[Heath Cummings]

Just want to say thank you to Matt in the chat. Always enjoy you being here and your comments. Why isn't Jaden Daniels the QB one in Dynasty?

[Tommy Blair]

Tommy, it's such a great question because the thing that we want to do most as a dynasty space is inflate quarterbacks who show some upside in their rookie year. If you look at the Profiles of any first round drafted quarterback, J.J. mcCarthy included, they tend to improve their value once the calendar turns over to January. Jaden Daniels was not only great as a runner, something like 800 yards rushing this year, he was excellent as a passer as well. And so I get it. So if we look back, let's say over the previous four years, Jaden Daniels was 19th in fantasy points per attempt, which is really, really good, right? Like that's a, that's an excellent outcome. The only problem is if you look above Jaden Daniels repeatedly, you'll see names like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen. And so what we're looking at is, you know, do you want to make the bet of a younger quarterback, a 24 year old quarterback, or do you want to add five years to that name and say like I'm taking the stability of the repeat hits? I think about Jordan McNamara's study where he looked at first round quarterbacks. What's the likelihood of them hitting half the time? They tend to hit those quarterbacks that hit that have a top 12 finish. Only 40% of them do it again where they're in the top 12 a second time. So my question to the listeners is why take the risk? If, if these are value lateral moves that we can make into a Lamar Jackson, into a Jalen Hurts or a Josh Allen, why would we inflate Jaden Daniels above those players until he hits the second time? Because let's, let's talk about KTC values for a second. How much extra value can Jaden Daniels gain over the next year if he were to finish in the top six a second time? There's sort of an upper threshold that I've seen historically where, you know, 4 first is kind of the ceiling for any fantasy asset that a manager will reasonably be willing to trade you. We're already kind of near that upper limit already. So in my opinion, Jayden Daniels is a great asset. Now is not the time to buy because when we see these KTC values, what we see is a spike, a plateau, a slight drop or a slight gain the next year and then a second plateau. We're in a plateau phase right now. Let's just wait and see what happens. And if you want to get into Daniels, you can wait for injury or you can just wait a year and, and sort of pay that, that gold price of 4 first.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I think the, the reason I asked that question is when I went through my first process of putting Together projections for 2025, the projection for Daniels was for and, and again I'm projecting a little bit of improvement in some areas that he showed in the second half of the year. I've talked about this before. I think like full season statistics are much more predictive than, than second half statistics. The one place I make an exception for that is with rookies because we've seen a lot of rookie hot second halves turn into what they are in year two. Anyway, my projection came out very for Daniels, Jackson and Allen for this year. And as you mentioned at the start of the year Daniels is actually going to be 23, Jackson's going to be 28 and Allen's going to be 29. Now they're quarterbacks, maybe they can play until 40. But we've not seen quarterbacks who rely as much on the ground as Alan and Jackson do last that long. And so yeah, I, I would be happy to make that deal if I'm getting a significant piece in addition to Alan or Jackson. I think it's probably an unnecess necessary risk as you're saying. I agree with that unless you're moving into a window where you're going through the rebuild. And I actually think it's more likely that two years from now something negatives happen to Jackson or Allen's value. But you know, we're just gonna have to wait and see. I've got one more quarterback question before we get to the other positions. Drake May was thought by pretty much everyone coming into the NFL draft last year to be a better quarterback prospect than Bonix. Maybe everyone. But Sean Payton was clearly and obviously better last year than Drake May, is there any reason for anyone to have any confidence in Bo Nix vs Drake May in dynasty?

[Tommy Blair]

Confidence is such a difficult word in dynasty, at least in my opinion. I don't really have confidence in any asset beyond the top 15 or so but I think they're a fascinating case study of one another, aren't they? Like I think you're right. Like these are sort of tortoise and hare assets where one had a pretty significant lead but Bo Nix showed that he can play football and he can run, he can operate an offense. My co host John Hogue mentioned to me this was last year, I think he asked me the question has there ever been a head coach who has developed an elite quarterback who failed to do it with another first round quarterback? And we were racking our brains and the examples were really few and far between between and I think we probably should have had a little bit more faith in Sean Payton, the QB whisperer. You look at the numbers, you know I'm an analytics minded person, they're pretty similar in my opinion. If you're looking at you know, likelihood of scrambling completion percentage, those types of things that, that we're looking for in fantasy where they diverge from what I saw at least was sac rate. So make May was act 8% of the time last year while Knicks was only 3.7. And you look at the pressure rate over expected, some of that is due to the offensive line, some of that is due to the quarterbacks themselves. Right. The the line in Denver was actually blocking really really well for Knicks. He was a minus 5% pressure rate over expected. Meg gets himself into trouble a little bit. But I think that there's a little bit more ceiling with May. If you're looking at touchdown rate. May was only at 3%. That's below average. Knicks was right at average in the NFL for 5% for passing touchdowns. So I think if I were to have a slight lean at their current cost, it would probably be Drake May, but I see them as very, very similar assets. What about you?

[Heath Cummings]

I've got Knicks just barely ahead of May, definitely in the same tier and honestly it's a big tier. It's one of the guys you mentioned beforehand because I'm a little bit more concerned, I think maybe about Justin Herbert than you are. Kyler Murray, we have a question about him. We'll talk about him a little bit later is in that tier for me. Jordan Love, C.J. stroud, Brock Purdy, all in that tier. I think that tier gets rearranged multiple times throughout this season and hopefully somebody emerges as moving up into the next tier. But that's kind of the, the, the group of QBs who right now we view as low end QB1s, maybe borderline QB ones in Dynasty fantasy football. I hope that Kyle Williams can actually be a number one wide receiver and Drake May actually has weapons. I'm a little skeptical about that as well. So yeah, I think that putting them in the same tier and not knowing who to rank higher is exactly how I feel about it. Which is how we got to that question I failed to mention earlier. I've got five questions today. We've done two of them, so three more to go. That's how math works. I'm going to take as many of your questions after the second break as I can. As I mentioned, we've already got a Kyler Murray question. We've got a Jalen Hurts versus Mahomes question. If guys have questions specifically about quarterbacks, that's probably great. But anything Dynasty related, go right ahead and put those in the comments. We will get to those in probably about 10 minutes. You know, I've seen just a little bit on social media the last week or so about James Cook and how, you know what, his volume didn't actually go up last year. What went up was the fact that he never scored touchdowns and then all of a sudden he led the NFL in touchdowns. He doesn't seem particularly happy with his current contract situation and has been very vocal on social media about wanting to get that big number when he gets to free agency, which will be after this year. I've found myself a little lower on Cook both in Redraft and Dynasty. And, and Tommy, if you, if you saw anything I did last Year, you know, I was a huge, huge, huge James Cook guy. Now this is what happens to us a lot. The end the thing that it gets flipped, right? We love the guy now everybody else loves him more than us, so we've got to question him. Is James Cook as a ten dynasty running back just a huge risk right now?

[Tommy Blair]

Heath, I can't thank you enough for turning me on to James Cook last year because I rode that outlier touchdown, right? If you look back over the previous four years, James Cook had the third highest touchdown rate per rush attempt in the entire NFL. We're talking like hundreds of running backs. And so the bet on Cook is an outlier, a Devon Achan type outlier. And you have to make an individual player take there because Achan is available in a similar tier. I lean hn over Cook, especially because the contract status is up in the air. If you were to put Cook on, let's say, I don't know, the Carolina Panthers, a decent offense that supports running backs, would you anticipate the same levels of production? I certainly wouldn't. And so when those types of situations arise, I am certainly willing to get out in a value lateral way and I think there's a lot of opportunity to do so. I think you have to wait a little bit though, right? I think we have to wait for this contract tango to end for some type of resolution because there will be a resolution. I truly believe this. Something like a three year contract that will appease both sides begrudgingly. And once that happens, I mean, there's an old trope in the fantasy space, isn't there, Heath, where once a running back gets his second contract, that's the time to trade, isn't it?

[Heath Cummings]

Right. Yeah, no, I, I want to go through some names and you can just give me a one name answer. These are some of the guys that I have ranked very close to James Cook. You can tell me who you prefer. And let's start with the rookies. James Cook or Quinch on Judkins.

[Tommy Blair]

Oh, I love Quinshawn Judkins and that's. That's entirely due to Zach Reed, the tacit assassin's film study. When he's in on a running back to the degree that he is, I am also in. So give me Judkins.

[Heath Cummings]

Cook versus Trevion Henderson.

[Tommy Blair]

Henderson, love the pass catching ability.

[Heath Cummings]

Cook versus Bucky Irving.

[Tommy Blair]

Oh, that's so close. Can I wait a month and give you an answer on that?

[Heath Cummings]

I think, yeah, sure. I'll make it more difficult. Cook versus Ken Walker.

[Tommy Blair]

Oh man, give me James Cook in that case. I, I don't Love the negative one. Negative one 45 yard type running backs and that's exactly what Ken Walker is in my opinion.

[Heath Cummings]

So those are the guys that I have just ahead of James Cook. The guys I have just behind him. It's hard to compare him to because they're all two or three years older. It's all those veterans that we think are RB ones this year, but we don't know if they're playing again. So a borderline rb, a player whose skill set I love very much. I kind of hate the way the Bills rotate their running backs. I thought there was too much Ty Johnson and it works for them. I'm not saying that as a criticism of their offensive attack. It's very good for them. It's not. It doesn't make you feel all warm and fuzzy as somebody who's starting James Cook on a weekly basis. If he doesn't score those touchdowns, this is another one I, I will. A precursor. Garrett Wilson is my most rostered starting wide receiver. I've got some low end round three picks I'm still holding on to, but I have more of but my most rostered starting wide receiver in Dynasty and I'm terrified. What is the optimistic case for Garrett Wilson?

[Tommy Blair]

This is probably the most confusing asset in all of fantasy football in my opinion. My co host John calls me a numbers butt. So I dig into the analytics and I look at like the fantasy points data suite. They have an average separation score. Garrett Wilson is the best or among the very best in the entire NFL before the football is thrown and he is so average after the reception is made, it's confusing. He's somewhere in between Antonio Brown and Deontay Johnson in like the flattering and unflattering ways. And so I don't really know what to do with him. He's an elite separator. Like he's, he's a great player, but it kind of reminds me of the Moneyball quote. If he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good? He's. If he's great at getting open, why, why isn't he good after he gets open? And so I'm just as confused as you are. Heath, I was hoping you could help me with this question.

[Heath Cummings]

You know, I've got the pessimistic case because you mentioned a name and, and people who've been listening to FFT for a long time remember I was always the guy who was kind of like, well yeah, I know Deontay Johnson gets open, but what else is he good at? Deontay Johnson and Garrett Wilson are the only two wide receivers since 1992 to see at least 400 targets in their first three seasons and average less than 7 yards per target. You said he was between Deontay Johnson and Antonio Brown. I'm terrified he's just Deontay Johnson. If you look at their metrics, first three seasons of a career, Johnson actually averaged more fantasy points per game, more yak per reception, had a much higher touchdown rate, higher catch rate, and the other numbers are very, very similar. And so, and I think it's easy to look at a guy like that and say, yeah, he just, but look at all the bad quarterbacks he's played with. And I would say, okay, who are the quarterbacks he's going to play with in the next couple of years like Justin Fields or a rookie they draft in a couple of years? I, I am, I'm actively trying to see if I can get just, just maybe one, maybe two of those Garrett Wilson shares off of my rosters before this season starts. Because I do think he's just like a consensus, no doubt about a top 15 wide receiver for a lot of people. And I'm no, I find myself a little bit lower. I don't know that we actually answered the case. What's the optimistic case for Garrett Wilson? And maybe it's Justin Fields gets better at passing or maybe it's they're terrible this year and then they draft a rookie. I, Garrett Wilson gets traded. I don't see an optimistic case for him as a must start wide receiver this year though.

[Tommy Blair]

We said the same thing about DJ Moore though.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah.

[Tommy Blair]

When he became a Bear. And so I do think there is the upside of, you know, a top six finish. I think that is in a reasonable range of outcomes. However, it's probably not in the median. It's probably right, an outlier outcome or at least that's what I'm anticipating. The trade rumors did get my juices flowing a little bit though. I was kind of excited about the possibility of maybe going to the Dallas Cowboys. Let's say, let's, let's say the trade was, was different and Garrett Wilson was a cowboy across from CD Lamb. You would certainly, I mean, I don't want to speak for you. I would certainly put Garrett Wilson back in my top 10 in terms of likelihood of finishing, you know, at the end of the year and probably in the dynasty ranks as well.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I think that the difference, I would say from DJ Moore is. He had also really struggle with touchdowns like Moore has. But also he like he had a couple of 1100 yard seasons at this point in his career he had averaged. I mean he, he didn't have a year below 7 yards per target until last year. Like every year of his career was better than Garrett Wilson's average. So hopefully Wilson can find a little bit of efficiency. Let's talk about the tight end position. Sam Laporta has produced one elite season. I don't want to to bad mouth that but it do we think that he's going to see elite volume in the near future. And I guess you could also kind of get into what do you think this offense looks like without Ben Johnson. I heard Dan Campbell really talking up Jameson Williams the other day. I think it's a bad thing if you've got Jameer Gibbs on the team and A Monroe St. Brown and Jameson Williams are both heavily involved for La Porta.

[Tommy Blair]

My comp to Sam Laporta when he was coming out was George Kittle and I think it holds true. So when I'm looking at pass catchers, especially tight ends, there are certain metrics that I'm looking for them to clear to coin them as elite. 70% route participation, 2 yards per route run, a first retarget share of 15ish percent and at least 0.1 first downs per out run. Like these are like all of the good pass catchers clear these, these benchmarks. And Sam Laporta is right on the edge or hurdling those numbers in both of his seasons. And so I would argue that although the fantasy finish didn't necessarily show that Laporta has had two good fantasy seasons, he's a good football player. And when you have good football players in mediocre situations, it's just a matter of time before the decision is made or injury attrition piles up and they become a focal point of the offense. Once again. I'm really bad at predicting what an offensive coordinator is going to do during a switch. I think we all try, we all do our best, but we're not extremely accurate when making those determinations. And so what I say is Sam Laporte is a good football player. Good football players throughout their careers have spike years. Is this going to be laporta's peak season for fantasy production? I doubt it, but that means that there's a larger buy window and all I need is patience and sort of an iron fist to hold this asset and just wait for that peak outcome to occur.

[Heath Cummings]

What do you Think though, I think like what you said about Kittle is the optimistic side because he's like if I was looking yesterday at tight ends who have averaged 15 PPR fantasy points per game playing at least 10 games in a season and the median for targets for those guys is like 134 and a half. And if you look at the, the bottom half, the guys who have done it on lower targets, you see several George Kittle seasons. He hasn't had 100 targets in a season since 2019. But because of what he's able to do recently, scoring touchdowns and pretty much always with his yak, that hasn't mattered as much. He's been over able to overcome it. Personally, as somebody who kind of starts from the projection side of things, I, I always talk about how volume is more predictable than touchdowns and Laporte has been a really high touchdown guy. He did have 120 targets as a rookie. I don't want to sell that short. Saw that crash back down last year. But I think that the kiddo comp is kind of what it has to be or we have to see a target spike based on what we, what we saw last year and either one of those is possible. I definitely agree that he is, he is a good football player. It's it. It is also, I will just say it's a little bit of pushback. The George Kittle path is a narrow path. Very few players can, can take that path and be what Kittle has been.

[Tommy Blair]

Taking this to fantasy. It's kind of interesting though because you have the tier of two, you have Bowers and McBride and I think there may be two tiers there, to be honest with you, because if you try to move McBride into Bowers, you get a lot of resistance. It's tough to trade into Bowers even with the number two tight end and dynasty. But below that there's what half dozen tight ends and Sam Laporta fits in there. And I think there's a lot of flexibility in that range to A trade into tight end and B trade amongst that tier. And so if you want to make a player take, you can do so really easy with Sam Laporta.

[Heath Cummings]

Let's take our second break. I've got seven questions from the chat. Good job, guys. We'll be right back.

[Unknown]

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[Heath Cummings]

So we got one listener who's just doing a fantastic job. I don't know if it's salt or from, let's say S4LT, but regardless, you tie in two of the guys we just talked about with a trade question. This is about as good as it gets. This is how you get your question read Jaden Daniels and we're talking Super Flex here, obviously, or Jared Goff, Garrett Wilson and two firsts.

[Tommy Blair]

Wow. What a trade. So I think format matters in this, don't you, Heath? Like the the number of starters probably matters. The scoring format probably matters. But the question really is like, how flexible do you want to be with your roster build? I think the points per game differential between Goff and Daniels is probably, I'm anticipating somewhere in like the 4 to 6 range. Am I overcoming that with Garrett Wilson versus whichever wide receiver was going to occupy that spot? And can I liquidate the wide receiver that was going to be starting where Garrett Wilson now sits? And then what can I do with those 26 and 27 firsts? A lot of folks who are really savvy are getting into those 27 firsts right now because they're going to provide flexibility that I think doesn't currently exist in the dynasty market. We haven't seen the appetite for firsts over the past, I don't know, 9ish months that I think will exist next year, next off season with that first. And so as crazy as it sounds right now I'm leaning on the golf side here specifically because I have the flexibility. And if I can be an active trader, I think I can do more with the golf side than the Jane Daniels side.

[Heath Cummings]

What about. Yeah, I think, I think the shallower the league is, the more likely you are to take Daniels. Yeah, if it's a 10 team league. I'm definitely taking Daniels just briefly looking at my trade chart like basically it's equal value for the 2026 first Wilson and Golf for Daniels. So the 2027 first would be the extra but you're talking a four for one deal. So you need those types of deals. Especially when there's one obvious best player in the deal. You do need a lot of extra sugar on top at 2027 first is good. I'm not sure it's quite enough. I would have a hard time giving Daniels up for that in a in a but in A In a 14 team league it's definitely golf. In a 10 team league it's definitely Daniels in a 12 team league. You're right. It probably depends on how many starters that you have. Here's a question that I think has been on everyone's mind because most of us told you you should have done it before last season and that didn't work out so great. Is this finally the year to move on from the elder rbs? I'm in a startup right now actually with a bunch of the football guys and someone took Derek Henry. I don't remember it was round eight or round nine and then the contract announced was announced that he got an extension. It's probably an extra year but we as a community I don't maybe you haven't have certainly doubted a lot of the camara. Derek Henry I think even Joe Mixon a little bit. James Connor definitely and they've proved us wrong. But at some point they're not going to Is now the time to move off those older running backs?

[Tommy Blair]

It's such a great question, Joe. I think this gets into roster construction a little bit. There's a lot of accessibility to these elder running backs right now. There's a lot of really exciting prospects in your rookie drafts right now at the running back position. Can you blend the two? Can you give yourself enough Runway by adding in a James Conner or a Derrick Henry or a Christian McCaffrey, let's say so that you're out the gate hot. And once we see the inevitable switch of these backfields to where yeah, Travion Henderson is now the primary guy in New England or Quinshon Judkins has taken on a 6,535 work share. Those types of situations tend to emerge around the midpoint of the season. I don't want to rely on my rookie running backs as much this year. They're more of a second half of the season into the following year. Bet if I can gain accessibility at value, especially from my wide receiver position, and shorten my wide receiver bench a little bit to get into one of these elder running backs. That's something I'm definitely considering, but I think it goes into the construction of your team and what your goals are going into the 2025 season.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I'm, I'm gonna lean on the side of yes. Don't let last year fool you. Father Time is still undefeated. We're probably gonna see a cup. One of the one or two of these guys will probably succeed this year and most of them are going to show the fall off that they should have already shown. But they're fantastic and that's why they didn't this is an easy one from M grade the trade I traded CJ Stroud and 3.1 for Patrick Mahomes M. I think you get an A plus plus plus, maybe extra credit. You know, I look at the high school GPAs now I've got a son going into his sophomore year and if you got a 4.0, you're almost a bum anymore because they've got all these extra weighted graded point grade kids are walking around with a 5.9 or something. I think M gets the full like AP college credit full on a 6 points. Is that right?

[Tommy Blair]

And I love the trade. It's a great trade. Get into Mahomes but also in your other leagues maybe get into some Stroud as well. Somewhere around QB 15 to 20 in terms of dynasty ranks, probably a little bit underrated, but at this point you've traded at peak value in my opinion to get into Mahomes with that CJ scout asset.

[Heath Cummings]

Fantastic job. I promise this is not just because I have a Patrick Mahomes doll behind me. We do have you brought up Mahomes and we have a lot of questions about him. What about Jalen Hurts versus Mahomes? Which one would you rather have? And let's just say this in in standard CBS leagues, passing touchdowns are worth six points. So I know a lot of other people play in four. Is that enough to make the distinction? Mahomes in six hertz in four?

[Tommy Blair]

It's such a tough bet if you're playing the value game. I believe Hertz is valued over Mahomes. What I like to do is blend my quarterback rooms in super flex, have two rushing guys and one pocket guy or some sort of iteration of that. And so I think whatever complements your room best. If you can get an adder from Justin, excuse me, from Hertz, and get into Mahomes Yeah, go for it. I think that that's a great bet and vice versa. They're to me a very similar tier. It just goes down to how you want your QB room to be constructed.

[Heath Cummings]

We have three more questions and I think this is a great one. I briefly mentioned Kyler Murray earlier. Being in the same tier as Bonix and Drake May for me, most of the rankings I've seen have him a little lower than where I have him at QB11. But I still believe in the upside. I love the weapons and there's been talk that he's going to run more this year at costs. Do you agree with me that Kyler is more of a buy than a seller?

[Tommy Blair]

This gets into the humanity a little bit. We see NFL players as assets and we probably should if we're going to play Dynasty. I think the Dynasty market views Kyler Murray as a young man still as a. As a boy, almost as a call of duty playing petulant sideline powder.

[Heath Cummings]

You know, I'm 46 years old, he's 27. He is still a young man totally.

[Tommy Blair]

But I think we're sort of stuck with that framing of Kyler Murray and we're not allowing room for the maturation of this individual to become a more complete passer, to become a wiser quarterback. And I think that that's happening and we're sort of missing the boat a little bit. So I'm on the buy side as well. I think that he is somebody. If you can move Bonix to get into Kyler Murray, that's something I'd be interested in doing.

[Heath Cummings]

I get these kind of questions fairly often and I probably don't give satisfactory answers, so maybe you will. I already have Brian Thomas and Trevor Lawrence. It's a half ppr. It's super flex advice on going after Travis Hunter. Does my ex assisting stack make the quarterback cornerback risk greater? Do you have any? I don't. I just don't really have much feeling on stacking, whether avoiding it or targeting it in Dynasty. It obviously adds more upside on a weekly basis and includes more risk on a weekly basis. But if you had Brian Thomas and you had Trevor Lawrence and you were in that position in a rookie draft where you might normally consider Travis Hunter, does this give you pause at all?

[Tommy Blair]

So I'm a Jacksonville Jaguars fan. I'm gonna set that aside.

[Heath Cummings]

First off, you know, it's amazing that you can have such a cheerful demeanor after. After the past half a decade, I.

[Tommy Blair]

Feel like I've been shoveling my money. These season tickets just into some furnace of, like, ineptitude and pain. But, yeah, still here, still here. Still going to the games, excited about them, hopefully beating the Carolina Panthers Week 1. I'll be there. But to get to Jordan's question, stacking right, like, I am not a person who really cares about consistency. I like the upside. I like the variance of those ceiling outcomes. And so if you want to get into. Yeah, if you want to get into three assets on the Jacksonville Jaguars, sure, go for it. I think the Liam Cohen offense is really exciting and intriguing. The running game is sort of in doubt in terms of its effectiveness. The offensive line has been improved. And so all of that suggests, you know, a pass funnel to these two options. There's no longer Christian Kirk, there's no longer Evan Ingram. And so if you're willing to take on the risk of, yeah, maybe a Travis Hunter playing 40% at quarterback and maybe 65%, 70% at wide receiver, that's not a bad bet. All of the wide receivers don't play 100% of the snaps. Jamar Chase is an extreme outlier at 92%. BTJ only played just under 80% of the snaps last year. And so you have to bet on a little bit of efficiency. But this gives you a ceiling outcome that I think doesn't exist at value really, anywhere else in the NFL, because Trevor Lawrence is pretty cheap, BTJ, if you got him, you know, in the 110 of your drafts last year, you struck gold. You may as well double down now.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, you know, that's a better answer than me because I mostly just don't even think about it. Yep, he's my. He's my favorite player left. I'm taking him. I. I don't care one way or another. One more question, and it's a guy that we've had a few conversations about, but I'm not sure, other than me intimating that I'm still lower on him than consensus at wide receiver 26 and dynasty. How are we feeling about Chris Olavi?

[Tommy Blair]

He falls into a tier somewhere around wide receiver 18 to 45. That looks really similar to me. You look at yards per route, run route participation, first, retarget, share, all those things that I was saying earlier, and there's, I mean, like, 30 guys that just blend right in. And so this is a matter of if you've got an arbitrage opportunity to get into Chris Olave, you're willing to take the injury risk. Great. If you want to move up into him, it better be at value because you can get so many different assets that look like Chris Olave in the fantasy game that don't cost Chris Olave prices and don't have the concussion risk that. That frankly we do have. Brandon Cooks has sort of proved the alternative case to that concussion worry. He played pretty well after getting several really horrific concussions. But you better be willing to hold Chris Olave, like for the long run. He's a young asset. He's performed really well. High end wide receiver, two numbers. I'm personally a little bit lower as well. Unless somebody is just trying to give him away because they're worried about the injury risk.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I think the injury risk. And then also it seems like a lot of people are kind of glossing over the quarterback risk. And I know it sounds like you're pretty optimistic on Tyler Chuck, but it's still like not a round one quarterback anywhere in the vicinity of Chris Olave and probably a pretty bad team. So there's. You're stacking risks with Chris Olave, especially if you're valuing them higher, I think, than wide receiver 25. Tommy, fantastic stuff. Thank you for being here with me today. We will definitely do this again. Please just tell everybody one more time where they can find your work.

[Tommy Blair]

Yeah, at FF Tommy B over on Blue Sky Super Flex super show. Would love to have you talk some strategy. We've got a discord as well that's always going off, but man, I just really love the chance to talk with you. It was, it was really great. I appreciate it. And yeah, good luck the rest of the non point scoring season. We'll see you in lineup season.

[Heath Cummings]

That's exactly right. Thank you, Tommy. Thank you, Thomas, for making everything work. Thank you to everybody who was active in the chat. We will talk to you next Tuesday.

[Unknown]

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[Tommy Blair]

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[Tommy Blair]

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Heath Cummings]

Obviously, murder's not fun.