FFT Dynasty - Riskiest Players Heading into 2025 Offseason including Anthony Richardson, Tee Higgins & more

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Episode: FFT Dynasty - Riskiest Players Heading into 2025 Offseason including Anthony Richardson, Tee Higgins & more Release Date: December 28, 2024

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Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Heath Cummings is joined by veteran fantasy analyst Sam Wagman to dissect the most precarious players in Dynasty leagues as the 2025 offseason looms. The discussion delves deep into player performance, potential risks, and the implications for fantasy managers aiming to optimize their rosters.

Discussion Highlights

Rookie Woes and Lineup Decisions ([01:39] - [04:41])

Heath opens the show recounting a personal fantasy football dilemma involving Zach Charbonnet’s underperformance. Charbonnet, despite averaging 22 fantasy points over four games, scored only 10 in the recent matchup, forcing Heath to consider benching him for players like Bucky Irving, James Cook, A.J. Brown, Brian Thomas, or Mike Evans.

• Heath Cummings [02:16]: "Charbonnet scored 10 points. Now I have to bench one of Bucky Irving, James Cook, A.J. Brown, Brian Thomas or Mike Evans."

Sam shares his experience with a similar situation, expressing regret over starting Charbonnet and contemplating benching players who might underperform against tough defenses.

• Sam Wagman [02:55]: "I personally would have sat Charbonnet... I think one of those five guys is probably going to score fewer points than Charbonne did."

Identifying Risky Dynasty Assets ([05:23] - [26:11])

Chris Olave as a Risky Asset ([05:23] - [07:17])

Sam identifies Chris Olave as a once-considered safe bet now teetering on the edge of risk due to declining performance and uncertainties surrounding the Saints' offensive structure.

• Sam Wagman [06:36]: "Chris Olave is a very, very scary dynasty asset."

Heath concurs, noting a significant drop in Olave’s rankings and expressing concern over his sustainability as a top-tier dynasty wide receiver.

• Heath Cummings [07:17]: "I think there’s still a lot of risk there and a lot of people viewing him as like a sure fire top 20 dynasty wide receiver and I'm not sure that he is."

Eagles' Wide Receiver Dilemma ([08:37] - [12:00])

The conversation shifts to the Philadelphia Eagles’ wide receivers, particularly A.J. Brown and Devonte Smith, in the context of Kenny Pickett’s uncertain performance.

• Sam Wagman [08:37]: "I’m currently fine with A.J. Brown... Devonte Smith is the more matchup dependent guy."
• Heath Cummings [10:49]: "I am a little worried about starting all of the Eagles except for Saquon Barkley."

Emerging Talent: Jordan Addison ([11:12] - [13:22])

Sam highlights Jordan Addison as a rising star whose performance has surpassed expectations, marking him as a valuable dynasty asset despite initial skepticism.

• Sam Wagman [11:12]: "Jordan Addison has honestly, at a lot of points this year, been better than Justin Jefferson."

Heath acknowledges Addison’s ascent, adjusting his own rankings and recognizing Addison’s potential to climb higher in Dynasty drafts.

• Heath Cummings [13:22]: "He is currently my number 13 wide receiver in Dynasty."

Age-Related Risks for Running Backs and Pass Catchers ([15:09] - [26:11])

The hosts discuss inherent risks associated with aging running backs (28+) and pass catchers (30+), emphasizing the vulnerability to injuries and performance decline.

• Heath Cummings [15:09]: "Inherently risky any running back and I probably would have said who's over 27 last year..."

Sam elaborates on specific players like Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, and Tyrone Tracy, assessing their stability and potential for future performance.

• Sam Wagman [23:01]: "Bucky Irving... has played absolutely fantastic."

Heath categorizes Irving as low risk, Brown as moderate risk, and Tracy as highly risky, especially considering potential coaching changes.

Risk o’ Meter Analysis ([37:27] - [47:13])

Player Evaluations:

The segment introduces the "Risk o’ Meter," featuring listener-suggested players like Kyle Pitts, Najee Harris, and Trevor Lawrence.

• Trevor Lawrence ([38:16])

  • Sam Wagman [38:16]: "I’m very, very worried about Richardson."
  • Discussion centers on Lawrence’s potential under a new coaching staff and his current performance metrics.

• Najee Harris ([39:52] - [41:13])

  • Heath Cummings [40:15]: "He’s going to have a similar role... It’s just that this year he is RB 29 on a per game basis."
  • Sam Wagman [40:49]: "I don’t know. Like, I think Breeze hall’s talent..."

• Breeze Hall ([42:54] - [44:29])

  • Heath Cummings [42:54]: "Is there a risk that RB5 just looks ridiculous a year from now?"
  • Sam Wagman [44:29]: "I don’t know if it looks ridiculous. I, I think his floor might be, might be tough."

Additional Concerns:

The discussion also touches on tight ends like Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts, evaluating their contractual uncertainties and injury histories.

• Heath Cummings [27:16]: "He has fallen outside of my top 12 tight ends in Dynasty."
• Sam Wagman [35:33]: "Interested and Joker is interesting for me."

Audience Interaction and Final Thoughts ([44:28] - [47:13])

The hosts address listener questions, including concerns about rookie quarterbacks like CJ Stroud and Bo Nix, and provide deeper insights into players like Malik Washington and Xavier Leggette.

• Sam Wagman [45:18]: "I would buy all day on Bo next to Q13."

Heath shares his reservations about Caleb Williams, citing offensive line issues and his own high ranking of Williams despite performance inconsistencies.

• Heath Cummings [46:31]: "I'm concerned. But he's still so wildly talented."

Conclusion

Heath and Sam wrap up the episode by reinforcing the importance of evaluating player risks in Dynasty leagues. They emphasize staying proactive during the offseason to mitigate potential setbacks and capitalize on emerging talents.

• Heath Cummings [49:55]: "Thanks to Deebo, thanks to Sam. We will talk to you next Tuesday."

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Key Takeaways

• Chris Olave has transitioned from a safe dynasty pick to a risky asset due to declining performance and organizational uncertainties.
• Eagles’ WRs A.J. Brown remains a solid pick, whereas Devonte Smith’s value is highly dependent on matchups and team dynamics.
• Jordan Addison emerges as a top contender in Dynasty leagues, surpassing initial expectations and solidifying his position as a top-tier wide receiver.
• Age significantly impacts the risk profiles of running backs and pass catchers, with older players being more susceptible to injuries and performance declines.
• Trevor Lawrence and Najee Harris present unique risks in their respective positions, influenced by team dynamics and individual performance metrics.
• Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts face uncertainties related to contracts and injuries, making them risky yet potentially rewarding picks in Dynasty formats.

Notable Quotes

• Sam Wagman [05:23]: "Chris Olave is a very, very scary dynasty asset."
• Heath Cummings [11:12]: "Jordan Addison has honestly, at a lot of points this year, been better than Justin Jefferson."
• Heath Cummings [22:58]: "So you basically have no, no risk for Bucky Irving, a little bit of risk for Chase Brown, and a whole lot of risk for Tyrone Tracy."

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For more insights and updates, tune into future episodes of Fantasy Football Today and stay ahead in your Dynasty leagues!

Transcript

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[Heath Cummings]

Welcome to Fantasy Football Today Dynasty. I am your host, Heath Cummings, joined today by my friend Sam Wagman. Sam's been on the show multiple times in the past, or at least this is his second time on the show. Sam, tell everybody where they can find your work.

[Sam Wagman]

Well, you can find all my work over at football guys. You can find me yelling about fantasy football on, on. On Twitter, slash X whatever it is at @Swagman95. But yeah, happy to be here. Thank you for having me on. Hope you had a had a merry Christmas and you know, everything's going well for you, fantasy wise.

[Heath Cummings]

I, I had, I had a very merry Christmas. I wouldn't say everything's going well for me fantasy wise. I made the mistake of tweeting about one of my lineup decisions last night and so now I'm gonna share my pain with you. But I thought, you know, I gotta play Zach Charbonnet. He's started four games this year. He's averaged 22 fantasy points per game. I'm gonna play him. I'll figure out who to bench later. Charbonnet scored 10 points. Now I have to bench one of Bucky Irving, James Cook, A.J. brown, Brian Thomas or Mike Evans. And the thing is I think one of those five guys is probably going to score fewer points than Charbonne did.

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah, I, I, I don't know, I don't know exactly how I feel about that. I personally would have sat Charbonnet. I had like just a weird feeling that nothing was going to go right for either team last night. I, I did, I did say I, I put on Blue sky that I, you know, I was too scared to put it on Twitter. So I put it on. That's what I do whenever I have a take that is, that is too frightening to share with my 5,000 or 6,000 plus followers on Twitter. I put it on Blue sky for my 1000 or, or however they are on there. And so I won't get flames when it's bad. But it ended up being right. I did, I did say that I'm afraid that he lays an egg And I think 10 points is a certifiable egg. When, when you had a lot of people labeling him kind of one of the starts of the week there and it made sense but right. I was worried about the injury. The oblique, those obliques take time to go away. Just the offense was terrible. The Seahawks offensive line is awful. It is just not a good line. And the Bears are a competent defensive line. That was always, that was always the issue there. I didn't think it was going to be, you know, six to three but I did think, you know, I'm also the person who said Caleb Williams over one and a half passing touchdowns was the best bet you can make last night. So you know, take my advice with a grain of salt there. But yeah, I, I don't know. I think you probably have to start A.J. brown. I think he would be the one that people say to sit the most given given that I know Jalen hurts, you know, most likely but I don't know, I might be inclined to, to sit James Cook in a matchup where they might not need him as much. And those get up early.

[Heath Cummings]

Those are the two that I've flip flop back and forth between AJ Brown and Jalen hurts. It'll probably come down to me making a terrible decision on Sunday afternoon. Looking forward to that. So it turns out Zach Charbonnet was a risky player to play in week 17. And today's Dynasty show is all about the riskiest players in Dynasty as we head into the off season and we always start, of course, with three questions for our guest. And I'm going to go in a different order than how I gave it to you because I want to know, like, who's the one player that everyone else, Sam, might think of as safe in dynasty that you really think has some real risk that his value could drop this off season?

[Sam Wagman]

Well, I, I don't know if. I don't know if he's completely considered safe anymore. Chris Olave. Chris Olave, for me is the player, is the player that I, I think his, his value has been trending down almost for like a year plus now. You know, nobody was really confident in Derek Carr coming in. Everyone's less confident now. But at least people thought he could probably be a wide receiver, one like still in his career, you know, lead a team in offense. I, I don't, I don't feel that way. We saw him outplayed by Rashid Shahid this year in multiple spots. You know, we, we've seen play very good wide receivers are able to overcome the deficits around them, be it a quarterback, be it an offensive scheme, be it, be it, you know, just subpar play calling. I don't think Chris Olavi has been able to overcome any of that in the past year, year plus, and I'm officially worried about him as an asset. I've moved, I've moved off of him over the past few months in, in any remaining dynasty leagues. I still had him in and I'm just, I'm not sure that he's ever going to be anything more than a top 20 option. Maybe, maybe he sneaks into the top 15.

[Heath Cummings]

Right.

[Sam Wagman]

You know, with a competent quarterback. But the Saints are destined for, you know, basically ca. You know, cap hell for the next several years. The, the quarterback situation's in flux. They don't have a head coach. Clint Kubiak's system was good for Derek Carr, but will be. It wasn't good for Chris Olave. So I, I think you have a lot of questions there on an asset that people viewed as probably one of the safest heading into the last couple years. And I, I think that that opinion has probably drastically changed over the last 12 months. I know it's drastically changed over the last four months given what we've seen from him. So I, I think Olave is a very, very scary dynasty asset.

[Heath Cummings]

So I, that's really interesting because I think the public perception, especially if you're talking about like where he's probably ranked for most people right now versus where he could be this Time next year is, is a real risk. He is actually, I believe, one of my biggest ballers at wide receiver. I'm right now working on my 2025 Dynasty rankings that I'm going to try to have ready for New Year's Day or at least the day or two after that. And I'm looking at where I had Chris Olave ranked last January and he was wide receiver 8 and he is not currently a top 20 dynasty wide receiver for me. So that some of that drops already happened. But I think you're right, there's still, there's still a lot of risk there and a lot of people viewing him as like a sure fire top 20 dynasty wide receiver and I'm not sure that he is. So I want to, I want to transition for just a moment here. This will be of course, the dynasty show, but we got Dynasty managers playing in fantasy championships and we, and we kind of hit on this a little bit at the start. We're expecting Kenny Picket to start for the Eagles against a Cowboys defense that's been much better over the last month. How do you feel about A.J. brown and Devonte Smith with Kenny Pickett as the starting quarterback this week?

[Sam Wagman]

Well, I'm completely fine with A.J. brown. I'm a little bit more skeptical of Devonte Smith, but A.J. brown saw, you know, a first retarget share of nearly 70% last week for, for the vast majority, I believe up until midway through the fourth quarter, he and Devonte Smith were the only two offensive players that had a target for the Eagles. You know, and that was with Jalen going down midway through the first quarter on a very skeptical, very sketchy, very sketchy hit there. But I won't dive too deep into that. I'm, I'm currently fine with A.J. brown. I, I think he's gonna be completely fine. He'll get his, they'll scheme targets him however possible. He's the alpha. Devonte Smith is the more matchup dependent guy, you know, in this offense. He always has been. He's the guy that's gonna, you know, has the opportunity and potential to snap off, you know, a 50 yard touchdown at any given time. But the thing is, the Eagles are so run heavy and they're so not in a position where they're going to have to throw the ball that much because of their offense, because of their defense and because of the way they just, they run the offense that I'm not totally sure that he's going to have that much of a role in this offense with Kenny Picket there and I don't think that Dallas is, is a team that's going to threaten them to the point where he's going to have to play that big of a role. You know, he might still get a touchdown, you know, a deep shot from Kenny Pickett there. But I, I think the targets are going to be highly heavily concentrated to AJ Brown. Saquon Barkley might have 30 touches in this game. This is, this is not a matchup that Eagles fans should really be scared of, but it's one they're going to want to win and I, I think they're going to try and do that by taking the ball out of Pickett's hands as much as humanly possible. I wouldn't recommend starting him. I don't think he throws for more than, I don't know, 175 yards, maybe a touchdown. But you know, Dallas is a ball hawking secondary. They have a very good defensive line that kind of wreaked havoc on the Eagles the last time these two teams played. So I'd be a little bit, I'd be a little bit worried about, about starting Kenny Pickett, you know, in your leagues there this week.

[Heath Cummings]

I'm a little bit worried about starting all of the Eagles except for Saquon Barkley. I, I do think you're pro. Most people are probably starting A.J. brown. I will say that I benched Devonte Smith for Keenan Allen, so that feels awesome. What. Let's take a look a little bit in reverse at 2024. Now, who is the 1 player this year that really changed your mind in Dynasty?

[Sam Wagman]

Jordan Addison. And you know, I will, I will fully admit like, you know, I liked Addison coming into the draft and then you know, when I once I saw him during his rookie year I was a little bit skeptical because it looked like he kind of was just a little bit of a role player and it didn't look like he was going to be a guy that played an every down role and was, you know, the deep threat that everyone promised he could be. Plus, you know, a possession receiver, you know, kind of, you know, Allah a Cooper cup type role that could play, you know, in all phases and, and really put up some massive stat showings. But we've seen it this year. Multiple hundred yard gains, multiple, multiple two plus touchdown games for him. He has been a really, really good weapon and I think the biggest thing is that he's done it with Sam Darnold as his quarter quarterback. You know, I, I think that's not something we would have said coming into the season. Now, obviously TJ Hawkinson has worked his way back from his ACL injury, but he's still been pretty heavily involved. And it's not just been him, it's been Aaron Jones, it's been other guys in this Viking offense. But Jordan Addison has honestly, at a lot of points this year, been better than Justin Jefferson or at least been more heavily featured than Justin Jefferson. I think that's not something anybody was ready to say coming into the season. I think everyone pegged him as, you know, wide receiver three with a lot of upside potential to take over a game, but not potential to do it every single week. And I think we've kind of moved to the point where we have to consider him a top 15 dynasty wide receiver at this point because of the upside that he showed during during the the bulk of the season with a quarterback that people didn't really see as capable of supporting multiple wide receivers in in this offense. So I think that's a really good sign for Addison's Dynasty relevance. I do think he'll be drafted several rounds higher in in next year's cycle of Dynasty drafts and startups than he was this year and this offseason. So he, he's definitely changed my mind. He's definitely someone I'm going to look look to be in on and hopefully look to acquire acquire a little bit of, you know, if I can still get a good price on him.

[Heath Cummings]

He, he is currently my number 13 wide receiver in Dynasty. Now we'll see where that is next week when I start trying to guess at 2025 projections and, and forward. But yeah, 100 agree with him being a top 15 guy and I think there's a pretty good argument for him to be a top 12 guy. We'll see how he finished this season and how he looks in the playoffs. We're going to take a short break. When we come back, we were going to talk about some of the riskiest guys in Dynasty. I wanted to say, like, we do have some suggestions from Twitter for the Riskometer, the Risco Meter, however you want to say it. That will be in our last segment of the show. If you have some guys that you want to see, like how risky do we think they are, put them in the chat. We'll get to those. If you have questions, specifically Dynasty questions, put them in the chat. Get a little time for that at the end of the show as well. We're right back after this break.

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[Heath Cummings]

Okay, so I Any discussion about risk in Dynasty needs to start with a couple of I think probably obvious takes. If you're listening to a Dynasty show, I assume you already know these things, but just in case you don't inherently risky any running back and I probably would have said who's over 27 last year. Maybe I extend it to over 28 now. But running backs who are 28 or older, historically speaking have not been as good as they were this year. And you have to be ready because one injury at that age can take a running backs valued from must start player to you can't get a third round pick for them in Dynasty. So Derek Henry, Alvin Camara, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, James Connor, Aaron Jones. We've already seen a couple of these guys break down this year. Those guys inherently risky, I did not put them on the list to discuss. I think you guys know it. I would also say pass catchers who are 30 or older, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Cup, Devonte Adams, Mike Evans, Travis Kelce, George Kittle. That's not to say that these guys can't be must start options, can't be league winners. They are just very very risky. And particularly this time of year from really January through August, I feel really really nervous about having players of this age on my roster. If you're any even thinking about a rebuild next year, I would be willing to take a little bit of a discount to trade those players off my roster. Maybe around the rookie draft. But let's talk about the riskiest young guys and I I one of the names that popped up on Twitter several times when I put put the call out was the only quarterback guy on the list, Anthony Richardson. And I think like people can look and Say, well, obviously he's, he's risky. He's, he's been terrible at times. But what makes someone risky is the fact that they have a lot of value that they could lose. And Anthony Richardson is still a top 12 dynasty quarterback for me because he still has the position, the ability to score 30 fantasy points any given week. Now he might also score five. But do you think that he's risky over the next four months or so because the Colts might replace him?

[Sam Wagman]

Yes, I, I do. I, I, I, I think the problem, the NFL is a quarterback problem. We've, we've seen more than ever that, you know, it's hard to find a quarterback who is good, but once you find a quarterback that can actually throw the ball and not lose you games because of the way he's throwing the ball, you're, they're more likely to keep them. Unfortunately, Anthony Richardson has not turned out to be that guy. He's got a, he's got a completions pretty percentage of 47 this year. That's, I don't know if we've ever seen someone play, you know, the vast majority of a full season and finish under 50 in completion percentage. I don't know if I've seen that. You know, I'm, I'm, I'm young but, you know, I, I don't know if I've ever seen that. So I'm, I'm cheaply worried that they just cut, cut their losses. You know, this is, it's possible there's a whole new staff in Indianapolis in the next few months. We've, you know, Jim Ursay has never been shy to stick his nose, you know, where, where it doesn't belong into personnel matters. So wouldn't shock me to see Shane Steichen gone. It wouldn't shock me to see Chris Ballard gone. I, I don't really know what to think there. I'm, they're not going to run Joe Flacco out there again, but they could go with the bridge quarterback. They could be the ones to sign Sam Darnold. We don't know. I, I, but I would rather, I would rather have Sam Darnold than I would Anthony Richardson if I was the Colts. I, I can't imagine there, there are many people who wouldn't do that. And that alone is a massive reason why Richardson has to be the riskiest young quarterback that there is. The, the upside that he offers you simply doesn't outweigh his, you know, risk of, of just throwing three picks, fumbles, all of these things that have been issues with him, you know, just missing short, simple passes, wanting to chuck the ball downfield too much, you know, inaccurately. These are all things that we've seen Richardson do continually this year. And though it's been less since the benching, he really hasn't played that much better since he came back. So I'm very, very worried about Richardson.

[Heath Cummings]

Okay, so we. I. While you were talking, I did, I did look it up. I cannot see a quarterback since 1998 that has thrown at least 300 passes and has a completion percentage below 50%. So that's, that's a long time ago now. It happened a bunch. It's happened 101 times in NFL history. So this was a thing that used to be very fairly common. Carrie Collins did it in both 1995 and 1998.

[Sam Wagman]

Drew.

[Heath Cummings]

Drew Bledo did it in 1993. Vinnie Testaveri did it in 1988. Warren Moon, 1987. Like this. This has happened with some guys. There's a. Phil Sims, 1980.

[Sam Wagman]

Yes. But not really in the last 30 years. I think that, I think that's the Che. I think that's the chief issue here is that recently it has not happened.

[Heath Cummings]

Yes. Now, yeah. I will say I'm still probably more of a buyer than a seller on Richardson just because the upside is so high. He's a, he's an interesting quarterback because if you don't view him as a starter in a one quarterback league, it's hard to say this, but I do think his value might be better in a one quarterback league than it is in a super flex league. Because in super flex it's really hard to carry a guy who might as a quarterback. How to value a guy as a quarterback who could lose his job in the next four months in one qb, I don't really care about the floor. I'm just looking to go find a guy who could be a league winner and Anthony Richardson could still like if you told me that Anthony Richardson was going to go score 35 fantasy points this week, it wouldn't really. And finishes QB1 overall, it wouldn't surprise me. He's. When Adam Azer, I'm facing him in a league and Azer has Baker Mayfield and Anthony Richardson and I know he's going to start Baker Mayfield and I'm kind of glad he's going to start Baker Mayfield because I'm kind of scared of what Anthony Richardson might do to me.

[Sam Wagman]

Right.

[Heath Cummings]

So yeah, it's. It. It is. He is definitely a. If you can get him. I Think in super flex for less than a first round pick, then you must do it. But I, a couple of seconds for a guy like that that could be that good, certainly. But there's a lot of risk. I've got three running backs and it's really just a profile. It's not necessarily a profile to all these guys share, but Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, Tyrone Tracy, it's the young running back who was a Day 3 or UDFA who could be replaced at any minute. Like those guys just almost every year we have them pop off and then the next year they get added competition. And one thing that we kind of noticed coming into this year was that it seems to happen more when there's a coaching change. If, if the coach who had you when you were found money stays there, they're more likely to stick with you. If there's a coaching change, they're more likely to, to be a, a running back change as well. I guess Tracy would be the one we'd have the biggest concern about a coaching change, right?

[Sam Wagman]

Yes. Yes, absolutely.

[Heath Cummings]

Do you feel like Buck Irving and Chase Brown are, are because, because they're the way they're performing and their age and if you don't think about anything else, that's probably a top 12 dynasty running back.

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

So do you think that's valid for those two guys?

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah, I, I want to talk about Irving first chiefly because I don't really have any concern. I, I think there were a lot of people who had Bucky irving as their RB1 in this class coming into, coming into the draft season. And then he dropped off, you know, a lot of boards due to his size and you know, some measurables that weren't great. But there were, there were really weren't a ton of concrete reasons why people, you know, dropped him, dropped him down their rankings a lot. And I don't think he ever really deserved to be a day three pick in the draft, which is, which is kind of why I'm, I'm perfectly okay with him. He's looked absolutely fantastic. You know, he, he stole this, he, he robbed this job from Rashad White. He didn't, he didn't take it. He, he didn't earn it. He robbed it. Like he straight up went in stole it and he has played absolutely fantastic, no matter the defense. Really has looked really, really good despite playing half the season and kind of in a, you know, kind of an accessory role. But I think he's an absolute, you know, star. I, I think he'll, he has no, no Issue of losing a spot. Chase Brown, I would be a little bit less concerned about, but as long as Ax Taylor stays there, I think his job is safe, too. They've given him all the work. They. They haven't cycled a backup in for him. I would be a little bit concerned about touch fatigue for him, you know, heading into next season, given the fact he's averaging what, you know, an average of 25 touches a game, something like that, since. Since Zach Moss went down. But I think that he. I think that he's very solid, too. I, I think everyone thought that Brown was. Was in store for a big season this year, and a lot of those people were really right on the. Right on the noggin there. And it. None of the, none of the offensive issues have been on him. He hasn't had a fumbling issue. He hasn't had, you know, any of those issues. He's really good and, you know, he's very solid in pass protection, so he, he kind of clears up a lot of the issues you have with these day three running backs that get a lot of volume late in the year and lose their jobs next year. Unfortunately, you know, Tracy, I'm a little bit. I'm just skeptical of. Because, you know, he's that converted wide receiver who is still learning how to play running back, but he's got. He's gonna lose his head coach, he's gonna lose his general manager. Most likely, I would say both of them are gone. There's going to be a new quarterback in town. You know, the offensive line, it was. Was fine, but, you know, the Giants are going to look to a rebuild. So I, I think that's probably the best case scenario is that it's a full rebuild and he stays because he's cost controlled asset and they have no reason to spend draft capital or, or free agency money on another running back while they're clearly going to be mired in a rebuild for, you know, the next couple. Couple years at the very least.

[Heath Cummings]

So you basically have no, no risk for Bucky Irving, a little bit of risk for Chase Brown, and a whole lot of risk for Tyrone Tracy.

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah. Yeah. And I, I think Trey. I think Tracy does have a chance to keep his job given the fact that he has looked very good at, you know, creating his own yards this year. But he would still be. He would still be the massive risk.

[Heath Cummings]

For me to a couple of wide receivers here. And I had a hard time finding risky wide receivers, as you should, because that's probably the safest position in Dynasty. But there are a couple of guys that I think it, depending on how you value them, could be major risks. One is T. Higgins heading into another off season with an uncertain contract. A lot of minor nagging injury issues over the last two or three seasons. Could be not playing with Joe Burrow anymore. We'll, we'll have to see how that goes. I would guess they're probably just going to franchise him again and then is he playing through injuries? If he's being franchised again, we'll find out. And then, and then the other one's Rushy Rice. And I know like, obviously the injury is one thing to come back from and then there's the, the question marks over whether we have a suspension coming at the start of next year, which.

[Sam Wagman]

I think you probably do.

[Heath Cummings]

And then you have Xavier Worthy kind of doing his Rashi Rice impression at the end of this season, like looking like he's fulfilling his promise as a first round draft pick.

[Sam Wagman]

Not to mention Hollywood Brown.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, Hollywood Brown's on a one year deal, so he might be gone.

[Sam Wagman]

That's true.

[Heath Cummings]

So between Higgins and Rice, do you, do you share any concern with those guys? If, I guess I think a lot of people probably value them as top 20 dynasty wide receivers. Where are you at?

[Sam Wagman]

Can you, can you, can you refresh my memory here on, on Rice, was that a, was that a multi ligament injury or was that just acl?

[Heath Cummings]

I think it was just acl.

[Sam Wagman]

Okay. I'm, I'm less, I'm way less concerned if it's just an acl. I, it happened early enough in the year. I think he should probably be cleared sometime this summer and I think he should be fine. I'm not too worried about him because he's attached to the best quarterback in the sport and the best offensive coordinator in the sport. I, I really am not that concerned with, with Rice. I'd be way more concerned about a guy like Tank Dell than I, than I would with, with Rashi Rice. You know, kind of on the same track there, you know, young stud in their second season. But Higgins, I think someone's going to throw a bag of money at Higgins. I, I, I, I don't know. Like, I'm not totally sure that the Bengals are going to spend, what would it be, 27, 28 million to franchise him probably, you know, will that, will they do that? Like when it's, when it's inevitable that he would leave if they franchise him? I don't think they have any intention of signing him to a long term deal because of those injuries and because of the fact that they're an inherently cheap franchise, I think that, I think they know that Jamar Chase is the, is the alpha. They have, you know, a lot of guys on their defense that they'd like to lock up there. You know, some guys on, some guys on the offensive line as well. And then obviously Burrows massive contract and you know, the state of their franchise is that they're ready to compete, but they need the defense to get better and that's where they need to spend money on that side of the ball. So I'm not sure that they're willing to throw 65, $70 million at their two star wide receivers. I think they'd rather just let one of them walk and rebuild through the draft and you know, maybe, maybe somewhat small purchases and free agency. So I think someone's going to throw a bag of money at Higgins and that makes me, that makes me nervous of where he could go. You know, we could, we could see him go to the Patriots. We could see him go to the Cowboys, Panthers, you know, we could see him go to the Panthers. These are, some of, these are spots that could be great. You know, Drake may could be good. The Panthers would be kind of bad. The commanders could be, could be an interesting spot. I mean, so I'm not really sure. I think Higgins is definitely like a wait and see kind of where the wind blows over the next couple months for him. But I'm, I'm mostly okay. I've always been a believer in his talent and he plays through all those injuries anyway, so unless it's something like that really happens, seriously to him, I'm not too worried. But. And I don't think I would be that worried about Rice either. You know, I, I think I'm with you. Wide receivers technically very stable unless something really, really bad happens or you know, a move is very, very unfavorable. And I don't see really any of that here.

[Heath Cummings]

So just to clarify, on Rice's injury, it was an LCL only, so the ACL was intact. The MCL and meniscus were fine. It was his lateral collateral ligament and that had a recovery time of four to six months. So injury should not really be a concern going into next year. Target competition might be suspension might be, but long term, Rice should be good to go. The only tight end I had on the list, Dalton Kincaid and it it.

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah, that's Kyle Pitts though, right? What we have to be worried about.

[Heath Cummings]

Pits at this, have we not? Have we, Evan, are enough people still holding out hope, but I mean, I.

[Sam Wagman]

Think there are still some people that are holding out hope that we should, we should say something about Kyle Pitts because it's, this is bad, this is bad.

[Heath Cummings]

He, he has, I mean, I think he should have been on the list last year. He has fallen outside of my top 12 tight ends in Dynasty. So it's hard to have a lot of risk if that's your value. But yes, I agree with you. If people are still valuing Kyle Pitts as a top six Dynasty tight end, then he is the riskiest player in all of Dynasty. Maybe I should go check DLF while you talk about Dalton Kincaid. But Kincaid kind of feels like he's on that same path. Like he's a consensus top five tight end in Dynasty. He was some people's number one tight end coming into the year. He's had another year of just completely lackluster production, lots of opportunity, very few fantasy points. I, I am sure that through this off season, I have little doubt the most popular breakout pick at the tight end position next year is going to be Dalton Kincaid. If we go a month and he doesn't do that, does his value finally start to drop?

[Sam Wagman]

Yes. And this is, this is, it's worrisome because he was my tight end one coming into the year. My, one of my favorite players to target in almost all of my redraft leagues this year. You know, grabbed them everywhere I could and I watched as he did nothing. 4 points, 5 points, 8 points, 12 points. That one week he caught a touchdown. Nothing. I mean, just, and then the injury and the offense, the offense being run heavy and just all these factors seemingly working against him and still the one pervasive thought that I have in my head is maybe he's just taking the three years that we've used to see from tight ends to kind of adjust the NFL because he was really just, he was a wide receiver playing the tight end position coming out of college. And maybe he's just learning, he's still learning the nuances, but that was the excuse I used this, this past off season. So I don't know. I, I, I, I want to be positive, but because, you know, Buffalo's target competition is so lackluster there. You know, Keon Coleman is there, but Amari Cooper probably won't be next year. But Dawson Knox still plays a healthy role. The, the, the Bills want to run the football. I mean, these are all bad, bad things. So I, I'm not sure. I, I think we have to wait and see. But I, I would still, if you can, I would try to move off them, you know and try and get like a first. I, I would slam dunk a first for Kincaid. At this point I'm not sure if I, I'm not sure if I can stomach holding on to him and, and seeing this another year. But the target, the scarcity at tight end is once again rearing its ugly head to be a factor. You know, you have possible retirements this, this off season and Travis Kelce hasn't looked that good. And really the only old guy that's looked good is George Kittle and John Smith, which still makes no sense to me. It's been three months and I still understand.

[Heath Cummings]

No, no, I, I will say I, I just checked December ADP from our friends over at Dynasty League Football. Dalton Kincaid is tight end 8 which is actually looks like he's tied at tight end seven with Mark Andrews, so. And tight end 10 is where Kyle Pitts is. Yeah, there's still a little bit of risk for both of them at that spot. But that's, that's, that's the lowest I've seen concave in ADP or rankings probably since he was.

[Sam Wagman]

I almost think that's a buy, I almost think that's, I almost think that's a buy at tight end 8 because again the scarcity, the scarcity plays the whole role here. Right. So you know, if we, we, if we take into account that Kelce continues to tumble down the rankings a little bit given the fact that he's, you know, he is behind those guys.

[Heath Cummings]

Tight end 12.

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah. So, so who, who's ahead of him? So who do we have the top Bowers. Okay.

[Heath Cummings]

Brock Bowers, Trey McBride, Sam Laporta, TJ Hawkinson, Dave and Ajoku. George Kittle, Mark Andrews and Joko is.

[Sam Wagman]

Interested and Joker is interesting for me. He and Andrews might be the only guys that I would, I would rank outside or behind Kincaid at this point simply because Andrews is a use when necessary and red zone target only. You're basically praying catches a touchdown or a 70 yard random pass or you know, and he's not useful. And, and Joku is very interesting because he's a low, a dot guy who doesn't catch many touchdown passes. So if he's minimized then, then it's unfortunate. So you know, and the quarterback situation in Cleveland is completely up in the air. Nobody knows what's going on there. So I, I would almost consider Dalton Kincaid a buy a tight end 8 only because the, the, the unknown is kind of better than the known to some degree.

[Heath Cummings]

Right.

[Sam Wagman]

And I don't, I don't know if there's a whole lot of room between those three assets there. So I would label Kincaid a buy at tight end 8 simply because the offense he plays in and you know, we know that he can play a very strong route running role in this offense. But we need to see it. We do need to see it.

[Heath Cummings]

So let's take our second break and when we come back we'll get to the Risk o meter with some suggestions from Twitter and we'll answer a few of your questions from the chat.

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[Heath Cummings]

We are back and Dustin had three names for the Risco Meter. Kyle Pitts who we just talked about, Naji Harris and Trevor Lawrence. Excellent, excellent suggestions. And I'm just going to give the cost on these guys to help you decipher the risk. Trevor Lawrence in most recent ADP QB 19.

[Sam Wagman]

Interesting. I, I like I I don't think there's a ton of risk with Lawrence. I'm, I'm intrigued to see what they do again. The coaching staffs play a huge role here, right. We have to assume that Shot Khan will, will fire Doug Peterson and hopefully Trent Balki once the season is over. I, I don't, I don't know because I love the, I love the supporting, I love the cast in Jacksonville. You know Tank Bigsby and Trevor ETN form a very nice one two punch receiving and rushing. They're running the ball And Brian Thomas Jr. Is obviously going to be a superstar. Christian Kirk and Parker Washington can play kind of supporting roles there and they just have to find another kind of outside receiver there. And then you have still have Evan Ingram and Brenton Strange who look good. So I think that the supporting cast is fine. I think it's just Ken Trevor be who they're paying him to be and he'll have another couple of years to do that. So I, the contract makes, makes this a lot safer than, than maybe it should be. I think a new coaching staff could invigorate Trevor a little bit if you get someone, you know, very offensive minded in there.

[Heath Cummings]

I am old enough to remember when Doug Peterson was going to help Trevor Lawrence's dynasty value because we just had to get a new coach in there.

[Sam Wagman]

Yes. Yeah, that. Yeah, those were good times. Those are some good times. Those are some good times. I do miss them. So I think Johnson will come to save the day.

[Heath Cummings]

QB 19. I do. I do not see a whole lot of risk there. It's about where I have him in dynasty. Naji Harris is still is RB21 and that seems extremely risky. I don't even know for sure that he's going to be a lead running back next year. He probably will be, but I don't know where that's a high risk for me.

[Sam Wagman]

Yes. Yeah, a lot of risk. A lot of risk with Naji Harris there. I mean, but he, here's the thing. If he stays in Pittsburgh, I, I don't see a scenario where he's not at least getting what, 60, 65 of the rushing touches again. So. Because Tomlin's clearly not going away from him. Arthur Smith, Arthur Smith is running a good scheme for him almost because you know, that's one that's always going to favor a running back and the rushing abilities. You just have the, the downside. He's going to slot Cordell Patterson in there a few more times than he should per game.

[Heath Cummings]

But yeah, I guess I agree with you. I, I think if he stayed in Pittsburgh, he'd probably have a similar role. It's just that this year he is RB 29 on a per game basis and he's going to be 27 years old and it doesn't seem like we usually rank guys higher in dynasty than they finished in Redraft at that age, that position.

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah, I, I think it's difficult. I, I'm, I want to say that he is going to lose his job, but I, I've, I've seen nothing to really deter, deter me, deter like me from thinking that he's going to lose his job. I just, I, I don't know. Like, despite the fact that Jalen Warren continues to look better, they continue to throw Najee Harris out there in early down packages and they just continue to throw them out there 15 to 20 times a game. So, you know, is this a case where we as we as dynasty managers know better than Arthur Smith? Probably, but Arthur Smith is going to do what Arthur Smith wants to do. So I, I think that's, that's the issue there. If he does, if he does leave Pittsburgh, where does he go? Dallas?

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, that's the other thing is it's a very risky year for anybody going to free agency as a running back because we got a lot of good running backs coming in in this class. Right. So that, that will be interesting as well. I did want to get to this one because Curtis asked about Tyrone Tracy who we already talked about. We're very, putting very high on the risk o meter. But then he also asked about Breeze hall. And Breeze hall most recent ADP comes in as RB5 behind Gibbs, Bijan Barkley and Achan. He has not really delivered this year on the, on the upside, but that's kind of been the case for most of the Jets. There could, there's going to be a new coach there, there might be a new quarterback there. Is there a risk that things are even worse for Bijan or for Breeze? Is there a risk that RB5 just looks ridiculous a year from now?

[Sam Wagman]

I don't know if it looks ridiculous. I, I think his floor might be, might be tough. Top 10. I, I think that might be just more top 10, maybe top 12. I, I don't know. Like, can you. Is this is a situation where you say is the situation going to end up being worse than the talent? I don't think it will be. I, I think Bree Hall's talent and I think people kind of forgot what Breeze hall can really do and you know, what he can do behind a competent offensive line. I think that's probably the crux of the issue is the offensive line line was not a good blocking offensive line. You know, for run blocking this year. He still did a lot of damage to the passing game most of the time and he did have, he did have some spots where he, where he shown through the running game. But I think all the running backs really struggled rushing, rushing the football for this team. I mean Braylon Allen is a bowling ball at £240 and he wasn't able to get going, you know, time. So I, I think a lot of the offensive struggles here, a lot of, a lot of dysfunction with Salah being fired halfway throughout the year. The, the team's being, the team is being run by two 15 year olds. I mean there's a lot of dysfunction with this team. I, I think it's going to be really interesting to see what they do, you know, in the next four months. But I don't think, I don't think Breeze hall is that risky and that's.

[Heath Cummings]

What's the risk? What's the chance that a year from now we two guys we just talked about, Bucky Irving and Chase Brown are ranked higher than Breeze hall and dynasty pretty low.

[Sam Wagman]

25.

[Heath Cummings]

25. Okay. Yeah, I'll take those odds. Let's get through the chat. We got a couple, a couple questions here. We'll go more, more rapid fire on the chat questions. John has a good question and I almost put CJ Stroud on meter but, but yeah, I, I just. He, he actually asked after his sophomore slump, which rookie QB worries you the most? 0 chance that I'm paying up for Bo Nix at current cost. And I think that's, that's a, a good name to throw out there. Current cost. It looks like an ADP bonix in December. QB 14, CJ Stroud, QB 13. Is there, is there a rookie quarterback you're worried that's going to kind of pull the Stroud be really good in year one and struggle in year two?

[Sam Wagman]

Well, at QB14. I, I just want to say I would, I would buy all day on bo next to Q13. The rushing upside, the passing upside, Sean Payton's offense, the, the possibility that he's not working with Cortland Sutton as his top wide receiver and his only solid wide receiver next year. I, I think these are all very, very good things for Bonix. I'm a little worried about Stroud. You know, I think QB13 is really fair for him. I, I think it was also very unfair for us to put him at QB5 last year.

[Heath Cummings]

Right.

[Sam Wagman]

He, he doesn't really run. He ran a lot more this year but the, the, the decision making has been pretty suspect. I mean the offensive line has been terrible. You know, there's no two ways around that. I mean he's, that, that interior offensive line has been atrocious for Shroud this year. I'm pretty sure he's taken what, 60 plus sacks, something like that. He's taking a lot of sacks this year. So I don't know. Like I'm, I'm very worried about Caleb Williams. I'm interested to see where you stand on Caleb Williams because I, you know part of it, part of it is, is the Bears and they're just eternal stink. Just bring everyone around them down. Yeah, but part of his, the decision making doesn't look that great.

[Heath Cummings]

No. Everything that I was concerned about with Caleb Williams coming into the NFL, I remain concerned about. I don't know that he fits the Stroud comparison very well because he's not been particularly good. But, but right. He just still like I was told that he's got Keenan Allen and DJ Moore and Roma dun and guys are going to be open and he gets the ball out on time and he just hasn't done that at all. The offensive line bad and not all the sacks are his fault, but too many of the sacks are his fault. So I, I, I'm concerned. But he's still so wildly talented. He's my QB8, which I think is where he is.

[Sam Wagman]

Interesting. Okay.

[Heath Cummings]

In terms of adp, he could fall quickly, but you look at the guys right behind him like Kyler has been very disappointing this year. We talked about the, the risk with Stroud's been disappointing Knicks, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert.

[Sam Wagman]

The NFL is a QB problem.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. And, and some of it's been created by the defenses and how they've been played. But let's, let's. I think we had one more here. Go a little bit deeper. Malik Washington and Xavier Leggette not in the same range for me, but Xavier Leggette, I, I think is somebody that, I am very interested in buying guys like this off of their rookie year at a major discount. And so if I could, if we, we get late in round two of a rookie draft and somebody's really wanting to get a player and ready to give up on Xavier Leg, that's the type of deal I'd be wanting to make. I've got some optimism, but not, I, I mean his value is decreased over this year. Would you agree with that?

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah, absolutely. From where he was is a, a first round pick in, in April heading to now. Yeah, absolutely.

[Heath Cummings]

And then Malik Washington's just an end of the roster guy that, if you've got room for him, that's fine. Right?

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah.

[Heath Cummings]

All right.

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah. I mean I, I think you were, I think you were hoping for a little bit more from Malik Washington, but they've, they've integrated him a lot. I mean he had, you know, I, I was at the, I was at the Dolphins 49ers game this past week and route running looked pretty good from him. You know, for where, where he, where he got the ball and they've, they've integrated him. He's a good fit for this offense. I, I think that's, I think that's a good thing as long as Mike McDaniel is there. If something happens to Mike McDaniel, then that becomes really bad because he's not a prototypical wide receiver. I guess we can say he's kind of just one of those speed option guys, you know, that, that you want to send down the field or you want to put him in motion, jet sweeps under rounds, things like that. You know, he can burn a defense. You know, he's good, he's good returning game. But yeah, I don't know. I don't know if there's anything special about him, really that's gonna do it.

[Heath Cummings]

For fantasy football today. Dynasty. Before we go though, Sam, I just want to give you one more chance to tell people where they can find your work. What you got coming up?

[Sam Wagman]

Yeah, absolutely. You guys can find me on Twitter @Swagman95. I'm there all the time. And you can find all of my written, written fantasy work over at Football Guys. Great place to be. Keith can attest to that.

[Heath Cummings]

Absolutely. We've had a lot of football guys on this show over the past year. I want to thank everybody who was active in the chat, everybody listening on the podcast. Thanks to Deebo, thanks to Sam. We will talk to you next Tuesday.

[Sam Wagman]

Paramount plus streams all the football you wanna football. We're talking NFL football, UEFA Champions League football and Big Ten football. So stream your football on Paramount plus Big Ten football available at the Paramount plus with Showtime plan only.