Fantasy Football Today Episode: FFT Dynasty - Riskiest Players Heading into 2025 Offseason including Anthony Richardson, Tee Higgins & more Release Date: December 28, 2024

Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Heath Cummings is joined by veteran fantasy analyst Sam Wagman to dissect the most precarious players in Dynasty leagues as the 2025 offseason looms. The discussion delves deep into player performance, potential risks, and the implications for fantasy managers aiming to optimize their rosters.

Discussion Highlights

Rookie Woes and Lineup Decisions ([01:39] - [04:41])

Heath opens the show recounting a personal fantasy football dilemma involving Zach Charbonnet’s underperformance. Charbonnet, despite averaging 22 fantasy points over four games, scored only 10 in the recent matchup, forcing Heath to consider benching him for players like Bucky Irving, James Cook, A.J. Brown, Brian Thomas, or Mike Evans.

• Heath Cummings [02:16]: "Charbonnet scored 10 points. Now I have to bench one of Bucky Irving, James Cook, A.J. Brown, Brian Thomas or Mike Evans."

Sam shares his experience with a similar situation, expressing regret over starting Charbonnet and contemplating benching players who might underperform against tough defenses.

• Sam Wagman [02:55]: "I personally would have sat Charbonnet... I think one of those five guys is probably going to score fewer points than Charbonne did."

Identifying Risky Dynasty Assets ([05:23] - [26:11])

Chris Olave as a Risky Asset ([05:23] - [07:17])

Sam identifies Chris Olave as a once-considered safe bet now teetering on the edge of risk due to declining performance and uncertainties surrounding the Saints' offensive structure.

• Sam Wagman [06:36]: "Chris Olave is a very, very scary dynasty asset."

Heath concurs, noting a significant drop in Olave’s rankings and expressing concern over his sustainability as a top-tier dynasty wide receiver.

• Heath Cummings [07:17]: "I think there’s still a lot of risk there and a lot of people viewing him as like a sure fire top 20 dynasty wide receiver and I'm not sure that he is."

Eagles' Wide Receiver Dilemma ([08:37] - [12:00])

The conversation shifts to the Philadelphia Eagles’ wide receivers, particularly A.J. Brown and Devonte Smith, in the context of Kenny Pickett’s uncertain performance.

• Sam Wagman [08:37]: "I’m currently fine with A.J. Brown... Devonte Smith is the more matchup dependent guy."
• Heath Cummings [10:49]: "I am a little worried about starting all of the Eagles except for Saquon Barkley."

Emerging Talent: Jordan Addison ([11:12] - [13:22])

Sam highlights Jordan Addison as a rising star whose performance has surpassed expectations, marking him as a valuable dynasty asset despite initial skepticism.

• Sam Wagman [11:12]: "Jordan Addison has honestly, at a lot of points this year, been better than Justin Jefferson."

Heath acknowledges Addison’s ascent, adjusting his own rankings and recognizing Addison’s potential to climb higher in Dynasty drafts.

• Heath Cummings [13:22]: "He is currently my number 13 wide receiver in Dynasty."

Age-Related Risks for Running Backs and Pass Catchers ([15:09] - [26:11])

The hosts discuss inherent risks associated with aging running backs (28+) and pass catchers (30+), emphasizing the vulnerability to injuries and performance decline.

• Heath Cummings [15:09]: "Inherently risky any running back and I probably would have said who's over 27 last year..."

Sam elaborates on specific players like Bucky Irving, Chase Brown, and Tyrone Tracy, assessing their stability and potential for future performance.

• Sam Wagman [23:01]: "Bucky Irving... has played absolutely fantastic."

Heath categorizes Irving as low risk, Brown as moderate risk, and Tracy as highly risky, especially considering potential coaching changes.

Risk o’ Meter Analysis ([37:27] - [47:13])

Player Evaluations:

The segment introduces the "Risk o’ Meter," featuring listener-suggested players like Kyle Pitts, Najee Harris, and Trevor Lawrence.

• Trevor Lawrence ([38:16])

  • Sam Wagman [38:16]: "I’m very, very worried about Richardson."
  • Discussion centers on Lawrence’s potential under a new coaching staff and his current performance metrics.

• Najee Harris ([39:52] - [41:13])

  • Heath Cummings [40:15]: "He’s going to have a similar role... It’s just that this year he is RB 29 on a per game basis."
  • Sam Wagman [40:49]: "I don’t know. Like, I think Breeze hall’s talent..."

• Breeze Hall ([42:54] - [44:29])

  • Heath Cummings [42:54]: "Is there a risk that RB5 just looks ridiculous a year from now?"
  • Sam Wagman [44:29]: "I don’t know if it looks ridiculous. I, I think his floor might be, might be tough."

Additional Concerns:

The discussion also touches on tight ends like Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts, evaluating their contractual uncertainties and injury histories.

• Heath Cummings [27:16]: "He has fallen outside of my top 12 tight ends in Dynasty."
• Sam Wagman [35:33]: "Interested and Joker is interesting for me."

Audience Interaction and Final Thoughts ([44:28] - [47:13])

The hosts address listener questions, including concerns about rookie quarterbacks like CJ Stroud and Bo Nix, and provide deeper insights into players like Malik Washington and Xavier Leggette.

• Sam Wagman [45:18]: "I would buy all day on Bo next to Q13."

Heath shares his reservations about Caleb Williams, citing offensive line issues and his own high ranking of Williams despite performance inconsistencies.

• Heath Cummings [46:31]: "I'm concerned. But he's still so wildly talented."

Conclusion

Heath and Sam wrap up the episode by reinforcing the importance of evaluating player risks in Dynasty leagues. They emphasize staying proactive during the offseason to mitigate potential setbacks and capitalize on emerging talents.

• Heath Cummings [49:55]: "Thanks to Deebo, thanks to Sam. We will talk to you next Tuesday."

Key Takeaways

• Chris Olave has transitioned from a safe dynasty pick to a risky asset due to declining performance and organizational uncertainties.
• Eagles’ WRs A.J. Brown remains a solid pick, whereas Devonte Smith’s value is highly dependent on matchups and team dynamics.
• Jordan Addison emerges as a top contender in Dynasty leagues, surpassing initial expectations and solidifying his position as a top-tier wide receiver.
• Age significantly impacts the risk profiles of running backs and pass catchers, with older players being more susceptible to injuries and performance declines.
• Trevor Lawrence and Najee Harris present unique risks in their respective positions, influenced by team dynamics and individual performance metrics.
• Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts face uncertainties related to contracts and injuries, making them risky yet potentially rewarding picks in Dynasty formats.

Notable Quotes

• Sam Wagman [05:23]: "Chris Olave is a very, very scary dynasty asset."
• Heath Cummings [11:12]: "Jordan Addison has honestly, at a lot of points this year, been better than Justin Jefferson."
• Heath Cummings [22:58]: "So you basically have no, no risk for Bucky Irving, a little bit of risk for Chase Brown, and a whole lot of risk for Tyrone Tracy."

For more insights and updates, tune into future episodes of Fantasy Football Today and stay ahead in your Dynasty leagues!