Fantasy Football Today: FFT Express Episode Summary Episode Title: FFT Express: 5 Overdrafted Fantasy Players! Dan Schneier’s Biggest ADP Fades for 2025!
Release Date: August 2, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dan Schneier
Guests: Dan Schneier

Introduction

In this episode of FFT Express, Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier delve into the intricacies of fantasy football drafts, specifically focusing on five overdrafted players for the 2025 season. They analyze why certain high-average draft position (ADP) players may not deliver the expected performance, providing listeners with strategic insights to optimize their fantasy teams.

1. Tyreek Hill – A Surprising Fade

Timestamp: [00:52]

Adam opens the discussion by expressing his intent to fade Tyreek Hill this season, a move he considers unusual given Hill's past performance. He cites a decline in Hill's reception-perception data over the last two seasons, mentioning, “Tyreek Hill is not creating the separation he once was” (00:52).

Key Points:

• Injury Concerns: Hill has faced more injuries recently, raising doubts about his durability.
• Team Dynamics: Changes in the Dolphins' offensive lineup, including the loss of Taron Armstead, affect Hill's effectiveness.
• Age Factor: Hill is aging, which may impact his explosive playmaking abilities.

Dan counters Adam’s perspective, arguing that Hill remains a top-tier player with exceptional speed and talent. He refers to Hill’s target potential, stating, “I'm hoping for like 170 targets but I'll take 134 targets in the third round from Tyreek Hill” (01:42). Dan believes Hill’s contribution is still valuable, especially considering his role in the team’s strategy.

2. Jackson Smith (JSN) – Offensive Line Woes

Timestamp: [01:47]

Adam shares his skepticism about drafting Jackson Smith, emphasizing his low touchdown potential and uncertain role within the Saints' revamped offense. He remarks, “He's not a big touchdown scorer. He's not a big, big play threat” (02:49).

Key Points:

• Offensive Scheme Changes: The Saints are transitioning from a three-receiver set to a tight-end-heavy offense under Kubiak.
• Quarterback Concerns: Adam doubts the effectiveness of the Saints' offensive line and quarterback play, impacting Smith’s performance.
• ADP Evaluation: Despite concerns, Dan acknowledges that Smith's ADP at 33rd overall is justifiable, highlighting his target opportunities when healthy.

Dan suggests that Smith can still be a valuable pick in the fourth round, especially in full PPR formats, where his target volume could shine despite the offensive uncertainties.

3. Alvin Camara – Offense and Efficiency Issues

Timestamp: [07:13]

The conversation shifts to Alvin Camara, whom Adam identifies as a blind spot over recent seasons. He expresses doubts about Camara’s target volume and efficiency, attributing issues to the Saints' poor quarterback play. Adam states, “I just don't buy the reception total being as high” (07:59).

Key Points:

• Quarterback Instability: With Derek Carr’s inconsistent play and the demotion of shocks to third-string, Camara’s targets are likely to decrease.
• Offensive Line Problems: The Saints' offensive line struggles further limit Camara’s effectiveness.
• Injury History: Camara’s past injuries add another layer of risk to his reliability.

Dan concurs with some reservations but underscores Camara's potential in dynamic offenses, especially if he secures a stable quarterback situation. However, Adam remains unconvinced about Camara’s projected performance given the current team dynamics.

4. TJ Hawkinson – Overvalued Tight End

Timestamp: [09:34]

Adam’s biggest fade of the episode is TJ Hawkinson, whom he argues is overvalued based on name recognition rather than on-field performance. He questions the logic behind drafting Hawkinson over other available tight ends, stating, “He is coming off another injury and... there's a lot of problems” (09:34).

Key Points:

• Injury Concerns: Hawkinson has a history of knee injuries, making his availability and performance uncertain.
• Production Issues: Despite averaging 8.6 targets per game in 2022 with the Vikings, Hawkinson failed to score any touchdowns last season.
• Team Dynamics: The presence of Justin Jefferson and Addison in the Vikings' receiving corps limits Hawkinson’s target share and overall impact.

Dan defends Hawkinson by highlighting his consistent performance over the past four years, where he ranked as a top eight tight end per game. However, Adam remains skeptical, emphasizing the decline in Hawkinson’s touchdown production and the unfavorable team environment impacting his fantasy value.

5. Additional Fades and Final Thoughts

Timestamp: [10:00]

Beyond the main five, Adam briefly touches on other players but focuses primarily on the aforementioned individuals. The hosts engage in a light-hearted exchange towards the end, reinforcing the competitive and analytical nature of fantasy football.

Concluding Insights:

• Strategic Fading: Both hosts agree that while some high-ADP players may offer value, it's crucial to assess their long-term performance, team dynamics, and injury history.
• Flexibility in Drafting: Dan suggests being cautious but open to taking calculated risks on players like JSN in later rounds, while Adam emphasizes prioritizing reliability and proven performance over name recognition.

Notable Quotes

• Adam on Tyreek Hill: “Tyreek Hill is not creating the separation he once was” (00:52)
• Dan on Tyreek Hill’s Value: “I'm hoping for like 170 targets but I'll take 134 targets in the third round from Tyreek Hill” (01:42)
• Adam on Jackson Smith’s Role: “He's not a big touchdown scorer. He's not a big, big play threat” (02:49)
• Adam on TJ Hawkinson: “He is coming off another injury and... there's a lot of problems” (09:34)
• Dan on Hawkinson’s Consistency: “He's been a top eight tight end per game four straight years before” (12:23)

Conclusion

This episode of Fantasy Football Today’s FFT Express provides valuable insights for fantasy managers by highlighting potentially overvalued players and encouraging a strategic approach to drafting. By critically analyzing player performance metrics, team dynamics, and injury histories, Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier equip their audience with the knowledge to make informed decisions and gain an edge in their fantasy leagues.