FFT Express: 5 Overdrafted Fantasy Players! Dan Schneier’s Biggest ADP Fades for 2025! (08/01 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: FFT Express Episode Summary Episode Title: FFT Express: 5 Overdrafted Fantasy Players! Dan Schneier’s Biggest ADP Fades for 2025!
Release Date: August 2, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Dan Schneier
Guests: Dan Schneier

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Introduction

In this episode of FFT Express, Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier delve into the intricacies of fantasy football drafts, specifically focusing on five overdrafted players for the 2025 season. They analyze why certain high-average draft position (ADP) players may not deliver the expected performance, providing listeners with strategic insights to optimize their fantasy teams.

1. Tyreek Hill – A Surprising Fade

Timestamp: [00:52]

Adam opens the discussion by expressing his intent to fade Tyreek Hill this season, a move he considers unusual given Hill's past performance. He cites a decline in Hill's reception-perception data over the last two seasons, mentioning, “Tyreek Hill is not creating the separation he once was” (00:52).

Key Points:

• Injury Concerns: Hill has faced more injuries recently, raising doubts about his durability.
• Team Dynamics: Changes in the Dolphins' offensive lineup, including the loss of Taron Armstead, affect Hill's effectiveness.
• Age Factor: Hill is aging, which may impact his explosive playmaking abilities.

Dan counters Adam’s perspective, arguing that Hill remains a top-tier player with exceptional speed and talent. He refers to Hill’s target potential, stating, “I'm hoping for like 170 targets but I'll take 134 targets in the third round from Tyreek Hill” (01:42). Dan believes Hill’s contribution is still valuable, especially considering his role in the team’s strategy.

2. Jackson Smith (JSN) – Offensive Line Woes

Timestamp: [01:47]

Adam shares his skepticism about drafting Jackson Smith, emphasizing his low touchdown potential and uncertain role within the Saints' revamped offense. He remarks, “He's not a big touchdown scorer. He's not a big, big play threat” (02:49).

Key Points:

• Offensive Scheme Changes: The Saints are transitioning from a three-receiver set to a tight-end-heavy offense under Kubiak.
• Quarterback Concerns: Adam doubts the effectiveness of the Saints' offensive line and quarterback play, impacting Smith’s performance.
• ADP Evaluation: Despite concerns, Dan acknowledges that Smith's ADP at 33rd overall is justifiable, highlighting his target opportunities when healthy.

Dan suggests that Smith can still be a valuable pick in the fourth round, especially in full PPR formats, where his target volume could shine despite the offensive uncertainties.

3. Alvin Camara – Offense and Efficiency Issues

Timestamp: [07:13]

The conversation shifts to Alvin Camara, whom Adam identifies as a blind spot over recent seasons. He expresses doubts about Camara’s target volume and efficiency, attributing issues to the Saints' poor quarterback play. Adam states, “I just don't buy the reception total being as high” (07:59).

Key Points:

• Quarterback Instability: With Derek Carr’s inconsistent play and the demotion of shocks to third-string, Camara’s targets are likely to decrease.
• Offensive Line Problems: The Saints' offensive line struggles further limit Camara’s effectiveness.
• Injury History: Camara’s past injuries add another layer of risk to his reliability.

Dan concurs with some reservations but underscores Camara's potential in dynamic offenses, especially if he secures a stable quarterback situation. However, Adam remains unconvinced about Camara’s projected performance given the current team dynamics.

4. TJ Hawkinson – Overvalued Tight End

Timestamp: [09:34]

Adam’s biggest fade of the episode is TJ Hawkinson, whom he argues is overvalued based on name recognition rather than on-field performance. He questions the logic behind drafting Hawkinson over other available tight ends, stating, “He is coming off another injury and... there's a lot of problems” (09:34).

Key Points:

• Injury Concerns: Hawkinson has a history of knee injuries, making his availability and performance uncertain.
• Production Issues: Despite averaging 8.6 targets per game in 2022 with the Vikings, Hawkinson failed to score any touchdowns last season.
• Team Dynamics: The presence of Justin Jefferson and Addison in the Vikings' receiving corps limits Hawkinson’s target share and overall impact.

Dan defends Hawkinson by highlighting his consistent performance over the past four years, where he ranked as a top eight tight end per game. However, Adam remains skeptical, emphasizing the decline in Hawkinson’s touchdown production and the unfavorable team environment impacting his fantasy value.

5. Additional Fades and Final Thoughts

Timestamp: [10:00]

Beyond the main five, Adam briefly touches on other players but focuses primarily on the aforementioned individuals. The hosts engage in a light-hearted exchange towards the end, reinforcing the competitive and analytical nature of fantasy football.

Concluding Insights:

• Strategic Fading: Both hosts agree that while some high-ADP players may offer value, it's crucial to assess their long-term performance, team dynamics, and injury history.
• Flexibility in Drafting: Dan suggests being cautious but open to taking calculated risks on players like JSN in later rounds, while Adam emphasizes prioritizing reliability and proven performance over name recognition.

Notable Quotes

• Adam on Tyreek Hill: “Tyreek Hill is not creating the separation he once was” (00:52)
• Dan on Tyreek Hill’s Value: “I'm hoping for like 170 targets but I'll take 134 targets in the third round from Tyreek Hill” (01:42)
• Adam on Jackson Smith’s Role: “He's not a big touchdown scorer. He's not a big, big play threat” (02:49)
• Adam on TJ Hawkinson: “He is coming off another injury and... there's a lot of problems” (09:34)
• Dan on Hawkinson’s Consistency: “He's been a top eight tight end per game four straight years before” (12:23)

Conclusion

This episode of Fantasy Football Today’s FFT Express provides valuable insights for fantasy managers by highlighting potentially overvalued players and encouraging a strategic approach to drafting. By critically analyzing player performance metrics, team dynamics, and injury histories, Adam Aizer and Dan Schneier equip their audience with the knowledge to make informed decisions and gain an edge in their fantasy leagues.

Transcript

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[Dan Schneier]

Express who's gonna let you down this year? This is Dan's fade list according to adp. All right, welcome everybody. Dan's got some hot takes. Always of course, hot takes from Dan Schneier who is on your fave list. Again, this is based on draft value.

[Adam]

Weird one to start. And I'll tell you why it's weird. It's weird because very rarely in my fantasy career, Adam, have I been on a player at cost. Two, three months ago when ours, when we start doing our prep and then come full circle and come off of him. But that's Tyreek Hill. Terry kill for me. First of all, I'll start with the reception perception today data. Thank you to Matt Harmon who does that huge fall off for Tyreek Hill over the last two seasons in reception perception data. Just not creating the separation he once was. Two weird vibes at Dolphins camp. Have you heard Tua talk about Tyrique? It's odd. He needs to rebuild his way with the team. A lot of weird stuff. He's getting older. He's had more injuries in recent years. Just not a player I want to buy. I don't believe in the Dolphins offensive lineup all at all. Losing Taron Armstead. So just not a player. Another failed.

[Dan Schneier]

Wait a second, wait a second. It's gonna be a three minute episode. We do it like this, buddy.

[Adam]

Okay, let's go.

[Dan Schneier]

Disagree with you entirely. Well, okay. Last year goes from two straight 1700 yard seasons to just this really awful year. I don't buy it. You know, I think it was the injury. He had a preseason injury. He's a third round pick. He's only 29th overall middle of the third round. So you had two are missing a chunk of games. Last year when Tua was healthy, Tyreek was on pace for 134 targets which isn't what I want. I'm hoping for like 170 targets but I'll take 134 targets in the third round from Tyree Kill. He's still. I mean I watch tape. I, I don't watch it like Matt Harmon. I'm not going to tell you about his separation, but I saw he still ran by people last year and he's lost weight so he can get back to an even faster version of himself. He made that sprinter like cancel the race because obviously Tyreek was going to beat him or whatever. I think he has speed for days and he's the most talented player. And they traded John who? Smith. That is a huge deal to me. So I am all in on Tyree Kill in the middle of the third round pick.

[Adam]

Well, just do me a favor, don't get any ideas about you canceling on our tennis match or anything like that. Like the sprinter.

[Dan Schneier]

Get a.

[Unknown]

Get a grip.

[Adam]

All right, let's move on to another team. I'm basically fading across the board and they have two players who I absolutely just can't get on board with it. ADP on. I'll go with the one. I can't get on board with more than the other. Jackson, Smith and Jigba. My God, can I not fade a player more than this guy? I will not be drafting him in any leagues where he's going. I look at the board, I see JSN and I'm like, this makes zero sense. He's not a big touchdown scorer. He's not a big, big play threat. I don't know his role in this offense. This offense is going to change. It's going to go from heavily one of the most three receiver set offense in the NFL under Grub to all tight ends with Kubiak. Last year Jacob Gibbs and I went over some beyond the box store this week. The Saints were 30th in three receiver sets last year. I just don't love what I'm seeing there. The player is great, but Darnold, I'm not a buyer into the offensive line is terrible and the role and just the entire offense is going to look different. I think we're going to see a lot of bootleg, a lot of throw to the tight ends. Not my guy, Kenneth Walker, my God, we're going to keep hyping him up year after year and blowing him up. ADP wise. I mean he is in the 40s and it's like, all right, I get it, he's talented but he has a good back next to him in the backfield. He's a terrible offensive line, questionable quarterback and he gets injured a lot and he goes for big plays a lot. That doesn't add up to his adp. For me, that one's kind of simple. Any thoughts on either of my Seahawks fades?

[Dan Schneier]

I don't know that I'm fading either of them. I've actually seen JSN kind of make it to the fourth round. If you can get him in the fourth round, I think that's great. His ADP is 33rd overall. I'm fine with that. I think he's gonna get a lot of targets. I like that they're gonna move him outside and he'll play on the slot as. He'll play in the slot as well. But yeah, look, you can get tight ends on the field, but it's not like these tight ends are going to command a lot of targets. So that doesn't really bother me. And Cupcake, if you're worried about injury history with Ken Walker, you should be, I think, even more concerned about Cooper Cup. So that's going to benefit JSN if he gets hurt? I don't know. I see a clear cut player on the rise who is going to be the number one guy for this team. I do think the touchdowns could be a problem for him. That is. That is. I agree. So I like him more in full PPR than the other formats.

[Adam]

But this guy reminds me of like when you bring up the stats about how you don't want to be chasing these receivers who are supposed to get a lot of targets, but they're going to end up on bad offenses. This guy seems like one guy who's going to fit really nicely into that bucket this year. Based on how high his ADP is. 33.

[Dan Schneier]

Is it going to be that bad?

[Adam]

I personally do, yes. I think their O line sucks. I think Darnold sucks outside of o', Connell, but that's my opinion. We'll see if I'm wrong about that.

[Dan Schneier]

So their offensive line for the Seahawks, they. They did draft Gray Zable in the first round.

[Adam]

That'll help. That'll help.

[Dan Schneier]

And they've had their starting right tackle. Abe Lucas has played, I think, 13 games over the last two seasons.

[Adam]

Not a good sign. And so, okay, this has been hurt a lot too, and not great.

[Dan Schneier]

And yeah, and Cross is their left tackle. He's currently hurt, but he'll be back for week one.

[Adam]

Great. That sounds great.

[Dan Schneier]

They can stay healthy. They could be a lot better. All right, look, it's an interesting case. Walker bothers me. I think he and Camara are two of the most perplexing players for me. Oh, you have Camara next.

[Adam]

There is another fade for me, but I fully and openly admit.

[Dan Schneier]

Wait, break, break. And then Camara. We'll be right back on Fantasy football today.

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[Dan Schneier]

Let's talk about Alvin Camara. Go ahead.

[Adam]

Just fully admit he's been a blind spot for me for the past couple seasons. So I'm willing to admit that this is maybe one you might want to not take my advice on. But I think a lot of what's propped up car I'm sorry, Camara has been Derek Carr. Derek Carr, one of the most willing throwers to running backs, really good at actually getting the ball to running backs. Not sold. Rattler is going to do that or shock, who's been demoted now to three and looked awful. And Hainer's getting first he rep. This is going to be one of the worst quarterback rooms I've ever seen. The NFL, honestly, they're just punted on the quarterback position as a team and I think it's going to look really bad. We're talking 150 to 170 passing yards a game from the Saints. So I just don't buy the reception total being as high. I don't buy the target total being as high.

[Dan Schneier]

That's not going to happen, by the way.

[Adam]

You think they'll have more than that receiving passing yards per game on average.

[Dan Schneier]

Let me see if anyone's ever even come close to that.

[Adam]

175.

[Dan Schneier]

Okay.

[Adam]

Chicago, you'd be surprised. 175 is not as low as you as those.

[Dan Schneier]

Oh no, no. It's really low. It's been three years since anyone's now 190.

[Adam]

That's not true. People aren't averaging at it right now.

[Dan Schneier]

I'm looking at it right now. Three years ago we had two teams under 190. Falcons at 172. That was. We had the Bears at 153. That must be.

[Adam]

And them are. The Browns are. Well, Browns get Flacco. I'll take Browns over them for passing for sure. This is just. I don't think people realize how bad it's gonna be with Shock Hayner and yeah.

[Dan Schneier]

The question is, does it matter for Camara?

[Adam]

Yeah, it does because Carr was targeting him heavily and he had Kubiak who designed this whole offense around running back screens. We'll see. I'm just not in on that at all.

[Dan Schneier]

All right, but listen before you say that these were the amount of targets he got in four games without Derek Carr.

[Adam]

Yes.

[Dan Schneier]

Eight targets, seven targets, 11 targets. And then he had a game where he had four catches in the in a half and then he left with an injury.

[Adam]

Come at me with facts when I'm riffing this hot like yeah, but I always scary. It's scary to see.

[Dan Schneier]

There was only one game with Olave. There was only one game with Shahid in this.

[Adam]

Right. Those guys weren't playing as well.

[Dan Schneier]

I'm scared of him too. If he gets to round five, I'm in. But I think this might finally be the year where Camara. His lack of efficiency and now being on by far the worst offense.

[Adam]

Lack of efficiency too. It's lack of explosiveness. There's just nothing to his game but receptions.

[Dan Schneier]

100 true.

[Adam]

Yeah. Yeah. And then we're coming up to my biggest fade. I mean we can quickly breeze over McLaurin. I just. The touchdown total was guaranteed to regress and now there's all sorts of button of nonsense going around with him. But then my biggest fate ever let there's no world, Adam, just no world where I would ever click this button and no auction where I would ever pay the price. He's like an 80ish 80p price. TJ Hawkinson, he's much higher than football to me.

[Dan Schneier]

He's much higher than that.

[Adam]

This year is just rank him based on name brand.

[Dan Schneier]

What are we doing?

[Adam]

We have a rookie quarterback. He's been injured and just not like TJ Hawkinson. What are we crazy? What are we getting out of that? Are we hoping for what some random touchdowns Like T, what is the point of drafting a TJ Hawkinson when I get Tucker Craft later when I can get either of the rookie tight ends who are both running with the first team offense and actual explosive talents later don't have to deal with Justin Jefferson and Addison commanding targets. Like the Hawkinson thing to me, I can't even understand it. I really can't understand his ADP besides, oh, we know the name. He's been his fantasy guy for a while now and I guess like we.

[Dan Schneier]

Just draft him here 2022, he averaged 8.6 targets per game with the Vikings and that was a team that had Justin Jefferson, adam Thielen and K.J. osborne. Yeah, they were throwing well, I, it's pretty good. And they were throwing almost 40. They were throwing almost 40 times per game in 20, 22, 2023, 2023 he was the number two tight end per.

[Adam]

Game 40 times for 40 times a game is so much that's not gonna repeat itself.

[Dan Schneier]

I mean that's probably not but they could be something like 35 per game. And then last year he, he averaged 6.2 targets per game which isn't that bad but he didn't have a single touchdown.

[Adam]

6.2 targets for a game for a guy who doesn't score touchdowns is bad.

[Dan Schneier]

I mean that could be the case but he also was not playing a full snap share because he was coming off the two knee injuries. Well, the one two ligaments.

[Adam]

I have no, I, I can't understand this guy.

[Dan Schneier]

We said on the tight end preview we never draft Hawkins because my thing is he's, he's. He's just not even at his best. He's not a dominant player in full ppr. He might be with a whole bunch of catches.

[Adam]

The thing is getting those catches from.

[Dan Schneier]

Might get you off to a great start if Addison's suspended for a few games.

[Adam]

So we can't overlook that if McCarthy can move the passing game well, like we'll see. That one to me is just like would you ever take him over Tyler Warren or Colson Loveland?

[Dan Schneier]

I mean in a vacuum if they were. If I had to only have one of them. Yes. And oh wow. PPR I would take.

[Adam]

We played different than fan. I would never take a Hawkinson over the years too. I'll just cut if they don't work out, I'll just get somebody else who's going to give me Hawkins in production.

[Dan Schneier]

Well, you're underrating Hawkinson and what he said.

[Adam]

I might be. I might be. I guess I might Lose out on like two points a game more I guess from Hawkinson versus the free agent.

[Dan Schneier]

It's a big deal.

[Adam]

Two points if that.

[Dan Schneier]

It's been a top eight tight end per game four straight years before.

[Adam]

That means nothing when we know but he's been.

[Dan Schneier]

He's been great with Minnesota. Great with Minnesota.

[Adam]

That was a while ago and that. I mean like last year he wasn't great and he's coming off another injury and.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah.

[Adam]

Jefferson and Addison and a new quarter. Cousins. Isn't there like there's a lot of problems?

[Dan Schneier]

Okay.

[Adam]

All right.

[Dan Schneier]

I came out with a lot of facts today. You didn't like it.

[Adam]

You did. And they weren't even azer stats. They're just good facts. Good clean.

[Dan Schneier]

I mean I can't acer stat. Hawkinson.

[Adam]

I don't want to hear it.

[Dan Schneier]

With and without.

[Adam]

I've done these or started enough for one lifetime. Just kidding. I love these their stats. I really do.

[Dan Schneier]

All right. Well he gets a lot of Azer stating because there are games that Jefferson missed.

[Adam]

Yes.

[Dan Schneier]

Yes.

[Adam]

Culprit. Yeah.

[Dan Schneier]

Actually not Addison. Games that Cousins miss.

[Adam]

Do me a favor, Adam. When we leave the show today, just pick up a rack. You need to. You need to get going too.

[Dan Schneier]

The other problem is Dan, I'm playing.

[Adam]

A lot of doubles lately and that doesn't help.

[Dan Schneier]

Not helping me at all.

[Adam]

You better get going because I don't know if you know this, but I dropped 20 pounds since our last match, so that's not a good sign for you. I'm gonna be moving a lot better on the court.

[Dan Schneier]

Yeah, well, you didn't move that much anyway. You didn't have to.

[Adam]

Well, yeah, you're right.

[Dan Schneier]

All right, well, see y' all later. Have a great weekend. Talk to you on Monday on FFT Express.

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[Dan Schneier]

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