FFT Express - AFC East Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Podcast Summary Episode: FFT Express - AFC East Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!
Release Date: July 9, 2025
Hosts: Adam Aizer, Jamie Eisenberg
Guests/Analysts: Heath Cummings, Dave Richard (mentioned)

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Introduction

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today Express, host Adam Aizer and analyst Jamie Eisenberg delve deep into the AFC East for the upcoming 2025 Fantasy Football drafts. They explore potential playoff contenders, identify sleeper picks, highlight breakout candidates, and caution listeners about possible busts. The discussion is rich with insights, strategic advice, and expert analysis aimed at helping fantasy managers dominate their leagues.

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AFC East Playoff Predictions

Jamie Eisenberg opens the discussion by forecasting the number of AFC East teams likely to reach the playoffs:

"Oh, I think just one, but, you know, you could see a healthy Dolphins offense..." [00:16]

He elaborates that while the Dolphins show promise with a revamped coaching staff and improved talent, the Bills remain the standout team expected to secure a playoff spot. There's potential for the Patriots or Jets to join, especially with the Patriots' upgraded coaching and favorable schedule:

"It wouldn't surprise me if there's two, but I think it's just the Bills." [00:16]

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Sleepers in the AFC East

Jamie Eisenberg identifies several sleeper picks that fantasy managers should keep an eye on:

1. Drake May (QB, Dolphins)

   "Drake May, one of my favorite sleepers... a potential starting fantasy quarterback is certainly on the table." [00:55]

   May's dual-threat capability, with 650 rushing yards in 10 healthy games last season, makes him a valuable asset, especially with strong receiving support from Stefan Diggs and Kyle Williams.

2. Jalen Wright (RB, Dolphins)

   "I like Jalen Wright... an explosive player who could fill that role if Hn misses any time." [01:42]

   With Devon Hn battling injuries and Raheem Mostert absent, Wright emerges as a potential primary running back, offering depth and explosive playmaking.

3. Ray Davis (RB, Bills)

   "Ray Davis... someone I take with a late round pick... opportunity there for him." [02:50]

   Davis showcased versatility last season with over 90 rushing yards and 55 receiving yards in a single game, making him a valuable late-round add.

4. Keon Coleman (WR, Bills)

   "Keon Coleman... second year receiver who could easily be the number one receiver for Buffalo." [02:50]

   After flashes of brilliance and overcoming a wrist injury, Coleman holds significant upside, potentially surpassing Khalil Shakir in targets and production.

5. Darren Waller (TE, Miami)

   "Darren Waller might be 33 but... if he stays healthy, he could be in the 9 PPR fantasy point per game range." [03:50]

   Despite his age and injury history, Waller offers depth at the tight end position and can be a streamable option in PPR formats.

   Jamie adds context:

   "Frank Smith is the offense coordinator for the Dolphins... it's hard to come back after... a degenerative hamstring injury... but it's not a bad draft throw." [04:02]

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Breakout Candidates in the AFC East

Transitioning to breakout potentials, Adam and Jamie focus on players poised to exceed expectations this season:

1. Justin Fields (QB, Jets)

   "Justin Fields is my favorite... over 20 fantasy points per game in each of his last two years." [05:36]

   Fields has demonstrated elite rushing capabilities, joining the ranks of quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick with over 1,000 rushing yards. His dual-threat nature makes him a top 10 quarterback in fantasy rankings.

2. Garrett Wilson (WR, Jets)

   "Garrett Wilson qualifies as a breakout candidate... huge opportunity for him to finally deliver on his draft capital." [05:36]

   Wilson's development is closely tied to Fields' success. With improved chemistry and potential enhancements in the receiving corps, Wilson is set to become a primary target, increasing his fantasy value.

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Potential Busts in the AFC East

Jamie Eisenberg warns fantasy managers about potential pitfalls, highlighting Breeze Hall (RB, Jets) as a cautionary tale:

"I just would not draft him in round three... someone that makes me a little bit nervous on drafting." [07:04]

Hall's performance has been inconsistent, and concerns linger about his rushing efficiency and recovery from an ACL injury. While he remains a viable option in later rounds, his reliability is questionable compared to other running backs like James Cook and Kenneth Walker.

Adam Aizer adds optimism:

"I think the difference between the way you see him and the way I see him is I actually think he's going to catch some passes... at least 40 catches." [08:06]

He believes Hall might outperform expectations if given more involvement in the passing game, potentially mitigating some of the risks associated with his rushing metrics.

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Concluding Remarks

Adam wraps up the session by emphasizing the importance of balancing risk and reward when selecting sleepers and breakout candidates. He encourages listeners to monitor these players closely and adjust their strategies accordingly to gain an edge in their fantasy leagues.

"Okay, that's it for sleepers, breakouts, busts for the AFC East. Thanks so much for watching and listening. We will talk to you tomorrow on FFT Express." [09:47]

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Key Takeaways

• Playoff Outlook: Bills are the frontrunners in the AFC East, with potential support from the Dolphins, Patriots, or Jets.
• Sleepers to Consider: Drake May, Jalen Wright, Ray Davis, Keon Coleman, Darren Waller.
• Breakouts to Target: Justin Fields and Garrett Wilson stand out as players with high upside.
• Cautionary Picks: Breeze Hall presents a potential bust scenario and should be drafted with caution.
• Strategic Advice: Leverage late-round picks for high-upside sleepers and prioritize dual-threat quarterbacks for consistent fantasy points.

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This comprehensive analysis equips fantasy managers with the insights needed to make informed decisions for their 2025 drafts, ensuring a competitive edge in their leagues.

Transcript

[Adam Azer]

All right, welcome to Fantasy Football Today Express. We're talking about the AFC east. Sleepers, breakouts, and busts. Jamie, how many playoff teams are we getting out of the AFC East?

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Oh, I think just one, but, you know, you could see a healthy Dolphins offense. You know, they were on the cusp of a playoff. Being a playoff team Last year with 2Amissing six games, you could see a one of these, you know, new head coach, influx of, you know, change of culture, better talent, better X's and O's, you know, for either the Patriots or the Jets. So it wouldn't surprise me if there's two, but I think it's just the Bills.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, the Patriots don't sleep on them. They had, obviously, a terrible year, but upgraded coaching staff and the easiest schedule on paper in the afc. Okay, let's get a sleeper in the AFC East.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I mean, we'll start right there. Drake May, one of my favorite sleepers. You know, I think I even listed him as a breakout, so if you want to put him in that category, too. But based on his draft capital, he was on pace in his healthy games, 10 healthy games, to be the third best rushing quarterback, 650 yards, which is clearly something that's, you know, important for us when we talk about fantasy. And I think it was four of those games, he was over 21 fantasy points. So opportunity here with what should be a better receiving core. You know, Stefan Diggs is, whatever you think of him as a fantasy asset is going to help Drake May, and Kyle Williams is going to help Drake May. So there's a lot to like about the changes here. Try beyond Henderson as well, you know, who's a breakout candidate. But I think the opportunity for Drake May, at his cost, to be a potential starting fantasy quarterback is certainly on the table.

[Adam Azer]

Any other sleepers or just.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Just one. I like Jalen Wright. You know, Devon Hn as a rookie battled some injuries, and now there's no Raheem Mostert. So Wright could be the running back there for Miami. Got to keep an eye on Alexander Madison because we know sometimes these veteran guys creep up and, you know, coaches like what they do. But Wright's explosive player, you know, could fill that, that role if Hn misses any time. So good handcuff there. So I like the situation for him. Same thing with Ray Davis. He started one game for the Bills. It was week six last year against the jets, and he had 18 PPR points, had over 90 yards rushing, over 30 yards receiving, had three catches in that game. I'm sorry, 50 yards give me three catches for 55 yards. So Ray Davis is a guy that is definitely someone I take with a lot of late round picks. I take with a late round pick in a lot of leagues like the opportunity there for him. And then I guess in this category is Keon Coleman. You know, we just spent some time talking about his, his upside and if things work out well for him. Second year receiver who started to show some flashes before wrist injury last year could easily be the number one receiver for Buffalo because I think has more upside than Khalil Shakir.

[Adam Azer]

I'm gonna give you one more sleeper just so you can laugh at it. His name is Darren Waller. He's 33. You want to know what his 17 game pace was in his last season? 2023, 79 catches, 847 yards, two touchdowns on 111 targets. You want to know what John who Smith did last year? 111 targets, 884 yards instead of 847, 88 catches instead of 79. But they look pretty similar. Obviously John Smith had a huge second half, but just the total production. John Smith 2024 with Miami and the 17 game pace of Darren Waller's 2023 with the Giants removing impartial and injured games almost identical other than the touchdowns. And again, I mean if you're just looking for someone to run four yard routes like John who Smith did last year have one of the lowest eight outs at the position, catch balls at the line of scrimmage, I feel like most tight ends can do that. Darren Waller might be 33 but he, he has not run a lot of routes, played a lot of plays. So if he stays healthy, I think he could be in the 9 ppr fantasy point per game range which is not great but streamable.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I think you know, when you start to look for why moves happen, I don't know. I wasn't on the shows when you guys right when the move happened. Frank Smith is the offense coordinator for the Dolphins. He was the tight ends coach for the Raiders when Waller had his breakouts, breakout seasons. So I'm sure that had a lot to do with why the Dolphins made this move and were able to move on from John new Smith and, and bring in somebody for next to nothing and see what he has to offer. So it's hard to come back after sitting out of your football for a guy that was banged up and you know, talked about a degenerative hamstring injury. That could easily be a problem once again. But like you said, it's he's free on draft day, you know, and so, you know, five bench spots you're probably not drafting during Waller 6 or more. You know, especially if you don't love your tight end situation. It's not a bad dart throw by any stretch.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I'm not, yeah, I'm not really drafting him in in 12 team leagues, but I just want to throw it out there. Scott Fishbowl, if you're drafting. Yeah, there could be value there. Okay, how about, how about a break? We'll take a break and then we'll do breakouts after this.

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[Adam Azer]

Let'S talk about some breakouts in the AFC.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

So do you like Justin Fields is my favorite. You know, maybe my favorite breakout of any player. You know, you look at what he has done as a starter, you know, over 20 fantasy points per game in each of his last two years starting for the Bears. We know he ran for 1,000 yards, one of three quarterbacks to ever do that, joining Lamar Jackson and Michael Vick. And so there's that potential to be maybe the best rushing quarterback in NF in the NFL this year. Then you look at the six games that he started last year in Pittsburgh, the Final Four, he was averaging over 24 points per game. So there's not a lot of great weapons here. I do think Garrett Wilson qualifies as a breakout candidate, but it feels like we always call him a breakout candidate every year. But there's a huge opportunity for him as well. But I think, you know, both those guys are sort of tied together. They were together at Ohio State. So if, if Wilson can get the DJ Moore treatment that we saw from, from Wilson, from, excuse me, from Fields in Chicago, then there's a lot to like him. I just don't like he's being drafted. I think he's being drafted a little too soon to go back to our first show of the week. But in any event, there's, there's a huge opportunity for Wilson to finally deliver on his draft capital and the NFL draft And be the guy I think a lot of fancy managers have seen and even saw last year, you know, before the Devonte Adams trade. But in terms of Fields, you know, He's a top 10 quarterback in my rankings and, you know, just an easy target that you can get after, you know, basically, you know, the first five or six rounds in, one quarterback leaks.

[Adam Azer]

All right. And finally a bust or two in the AFC East.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah, it's, you know, again, stick with the same team pre Sol makes me really nervous. The upside is, is huge. You know, he, he should benefit. Dave talked about this. He should benefit with the, you know, creativity of, of a running quarterback and some of the lanes that'll be open for him. So hopefully as a rusher, he'll be successful. But Justin Field steals rushing touchdowns. Justin Fields doesn't throw to his running backs, at least traditionally. And so with the, the, the, at least for me, the, the nerves. Nervousness of what Fields will take away from them and then you have just this small factor which I think should be a factor, but to me it's small of what Aaron Glenn said. If, you know, he's the head coach of the Jets. Aaron Glad said that, you know, wants to use both Braylon Allen and Isaiah Davis. I don't think that's a huge factor. I don't think that they're taking Breeze all off the field for significant stretches. But if they do use more guys than maybe we've seen during Hall's tenure with the jets, it could be a little bit of a problem. So he's still a number two running back. I just would not draft him in round three. I think round four later is a good spot for him, but he's someone that makes me a little bit nervous on drafting.

[Adam Azer]

Okay. I'm getting, I'm getting close to calling Breeze Hall a sleeper because I think people are getting a little too negative on him. And I think the difference between the way you see him and the way I see him is I actually think he's going to catch some passes. I just, I feel like he might be second on the team in targets. They've got a pretty garbage receiving core outside of. Of Garrett Wilson. So I don't think he's going to catch the. What he caught, you know, before the Devonte Adams trade last year with Aaron Rodgers won't be anything like that. But seen parts of Justin Fields career where he has thrown to running backs, I think he will out of necessity. So I'm going to say at least 40 catches. Nothing like 70 or anything crazy like that. And then I'm just hoping that he can regain that form. If he's just can get back to being the explosive player. I think that's been the biggest issue for him. It just hasn't been that good of a running back. The, the regular metrics tell it, the advanced metrics tell it. He doesn't avoid tackles. He doesn't break away like he. Like he used to. But maybe he's one of those guys where it takes that extra year to recover from the acl.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I think he was good year one. Amazing.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, you're one off the acl.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah, it was. That was his best season.

[Adam Azer]

Well, it wasn't. It wasn't better than his rookie season.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Well, he played four games his rookie season, but his, his. His second year was the high reception year.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. And last year started that way too. Then they brought in Devonte Adams. So anyway, I don't know. I feel like resolve might be undervalued, but right now I can't say. He is at 37th overall, still ahead of James Cook and Ken walker in our ADP. If he starts getting to like 47.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Then I'm buying all day.

[Adam Azer]

Pretty pumped.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

I don't know if you will. Okay, that's it for sleepers breakouts bus for the AFC East. Thanks so much for watching and listening. We will talk to you tomorrow on FFT Express. Now streaming. Hi again, TV's quirkiest crime solver. I'm Elspeth Tasioni. I work with the police.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

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