FFT Express - AFC North Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

Summary

Fantasy Football Today - FFT Express Episode Summary

Episode Title: FFT Express - AFC North Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts
Release Date: July 11, 2025
Host/Analysts: Adam Azer, Jamey Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and Jimmy Azenberg

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Introduction

In this episode of FFT Express, hosted by Adam Azer and featuring analyst Jimmy Azenberg, the focus is on providing a comprehensive preview of the AFC North for the 2025 Fantasy Football drafts. The discussion delves into identifying sleepers, breakouts, and busts within the division, offering valuable insights to help fantasy managers dominate their leagues.

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Sleepers in the AFC North

Cedric Tillman: A Hidden Gem

Jimmy Azenberg highlights Cedric Tillman as a primary sleeper candidate for the AFC North:

"If Tillman can be guaranteed to be that second receiver, third target in the passing game, there's a lot to love about his value, which is basically free on draft day." ([02:06])

Despite limited playing time in previous games, Tillman's familiarity with quarterback Joe Flacco and his potential to emerge as a consistent target make him an enticing late-round pick.

Other Potential Sleepers:

• Isaiah Likely: Potential Pro Bowler with increased target volume.
• Handcuff Running Backs: Players like Keaton Mitchell for the Ravens and Samaj P Run for the Bengals offer high upside if primary backs face injuries or share carries.

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Breakout Candidates in the AFC North

Caleb Johnson: Stepping into a Larger Role

Jimmy identifies Caleb Johnson as a strong breakout candidate:

"Caleb Johnson... averag[ing] just over 11 PPR points per game when he was sharing the ball with Harris. He's going to play on passing downs, so both these guys have an opportunity here." ([04:36])

With the departure of Najee Harris, Johnson is poised to take on a significant role in the Steelers' backfield, potentially becoming a top flex option.

DK Metcalf: Returning to Form

DK Metcalf is another player with breakout potential:

"There’s a chance here for Metcalf to sort of remind you of who he was early in his career when people were talking about him as the best receiver in dynasty." ([05:27])

After a challenging previous season plagued by injuries, Metcalf's health and quarterback play improvements could propel him back to elite status.

Jalen Warren: Consistent Performer

Jalen Warren is also on the radar for a breakout year:

"Jalen Warren can be more of a sleeper; Johnson more of a breakout, but I like to try and get one of these Steelers running backs." ([04:46])

His role in the Steelers' offense, especially in the passing game, positions him well for increased fantasy production.

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Potential Busts in the AFC North

Devonte Smith: Overhyped Expectations

Jimmy labels Devonte Smith as a probable bust:

"Devonte Smith where it's just, it's never gonna happen because they don't throw enough." ([10:09])

Smith's talent isn't translating into fantasy points due to limited target volume and stiff competition for touches within the offense.

Zay Flowers: Underperforming Talent

Another player under scrutiny is Zay Flowers:

"He's in the blob. He definitely is in the blob. You know, 20 through 40. He belongs there." ([11:34])

Despite impressive talent and target potential, Flowers hasn't matched his fantasy expectations, leading analysts to caution against overvaluing him in drafts.

Jeremy Judy: Limited Production

Jeremy Judy is also considered a bust candidate due to:

"Jeremy Judy based on what he showed in this, the sample size with Jameis Winston could easily be a breakout candidate if he could do it over 17 games." ([06:35])

However, inconsistency and limited involvement in the passing game under Jameis Winston have hindered his fantasy prospects.

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Audience Interaction and Insights

Twitter Poll on Rookie Breakouts

Adam Azer engaged with listeners through a Twitter poll asking, "Can you be a breakout as a rookie?" The results showed a split:

• 62% Yes
• 38% No

Adam expressed skepticism:

"I am firmly in the no camp. You apparently are in the yes camp." ([06:47])

Despite differing opinions, he acknowledged the potential for certain rookies like Zay Flowers to exceed expectations based on their target volume and talent.

Notable Insights:

• Offensive Schemes Matter: Teams with pass-heavy strategies or dynamic quarterbacks can enhance a player’s fantasy value.
• Injury Implications: Backup running backs with high upside become valuable in case of injuries to primary backs.
• Late-Round Value: Targeting low-cost sleepers like Tillman can provide significant returns without heavy investment.

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Conclusion

The FFT Express episode provides a nuanced analysis of the AFC North, offering fantasy managers actionable insights into which players to target or avoid in the 2025 drafts. By identifying sleepers like Cedric Tillman, breakout candidates such as Caleb Johnson and DK Metcalf, and potential busts like Devonte Smith and Zay Flowers, Adam Azer and Jimmy Azenberg equip listeners with the knowledge needed to make informed draft decisions and dominate their fantasy leagues.

Stay tuned for future episodes where the team will continue to dissect emerging trends, player performances, and strategic moves to keep you ahead in the fantasy football game.

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Notable Quotes:

• "If Tillman can be guaranteed to be that second receiver... he's free on draft day." — Jimmy Azenberg ([02:06])
• "Caleb Johnson... is going to play on passing downs." — Jimmy Azenberg ([04:36])
• "Zay Flowers... belongs in the blob." — Jimmy Azenberg ([11:34])
• "I am firmly in the no camp... of you people?" — Adam Azer ([06:47])

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Stay Connected:

For more insights, discussions, and updates, join Adam Azer and the FFT team on social media via #AskFFT and submit your questions through emails and tweets. Whether you're a seasoned fantasy manager or just starting out, Fantasy Football Today is your go-to podcast for all things fantasy football.

Transcript

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[Adam Azer]

Welcome to FFT Express. Let's talk sleepers, breakouts and busts for the AFC North. Adam Azer, Jimmy Azenberg, here we go. Love the AFC North. Should be. I don't know about a lot of breakouts because these guys have already broken out, but a lot of high scores scoring in this division. We'll find some sleepers, breakouts and busts.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

Don't worry.

[Adam Azer]

Jamie, who do we got in the sleeper category?

[Jimmy Azenberg]

You've heard me say it a lot. Cedric Tillman. You know, I think from what we can potentially get from him, it's a very small sample size. But those three games after Mark Cooper was traded and you know, some different quarterback play, I don't know if you want to say that. Better quarterback play from Jameis Winston, but different quarterback play. But you know, that's kind of what Joe Flacco is going to bring as well. You know, somebody that's going to give his receivers a chance to make some plays and hopefully that's the case for Tillman. So you know what you're Getting with Jerry Judy. You know what you're getting with David Najoka, at least based on what we've seen from them either in their careers. In the case of Najoku, already played with Joe Flacco in 2023. If Tillman can be guaranteed to be that second receiver, third target in the passing game, there's a lot to love about his value, which is basically free on draft day. So he's usually one of my last round picks and I'm very excited to generally take him as kind of like wide receiver five and in some cases wide receiver six.

[Adam Azer]

Okay, that's Cedric Tillman again. I really think this is a tough division for sleepers. I don't know if you have any others think maybe Isaiah likely. They talked about him coming, becoming a Pro Bowler this year.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

Yep.

[Adam Azer]

Who else? Anyone jump jumping them up?

[Jimmy Azenberg]

I, I think, you know, if, if you look at it, there's, there's some interesting handcuff options here. So if you can say for sure that it's Keaton Mitchell or Justice Hill or you could say for sure that it's Taj Brooks or Zach Moss or Samaj P Run, like if we knew that there was definitely a second running back on those two teams in particular, you would be taking these guys with late round picks. I think there's going to be some ambiguity in both those backfields. Keaton Mitchell probably has more upside than Justice Hill, but Hill was pretty solid in his role as a pass catcher for the Ravens last year despite the fact that they did not throw to the running backs enough. He scored a lot of touchdowns. But obviously if there's an injury to Derek Henry, then whoever's the second running back off the board, the guy's gonna get more carries is going to be very valuable. And then the situation in Cincinnati, you know, Chase Brown I think is going to still be the workhorse. But we saw what it was in the beginning part of the season when they had a healthy Zach Moss or just really somebody else that they trusted. It was a shared backfield with Moss getting quite a bit of opportunities. And so they draft a running back. They bring, you know, they keep Moss, they re bring back the, keep Moss and they go out and they get a guy that they know in Samaj P Ryan. So I don't think P. Ryan's the handcuff, but he's going to have an opportunity to make some plays. So those two backfields are, are definitely of interest. And then in Cleveland, you know, you talked about this on the Wednesday show, the report from one of their outlets that Jerome Ford could open the season as a starter. Well, why not take a flyer on him or even Dylan Sampson, you know, one of these late round running back options because Quinton Dutkins, while he has immense upside if he struggles or gets injured, Jerome Ford's kind of been their de facto replacement each of the last two years.

[Adam Azer]

How about breakouts in the AFC North?

[Jimmy Azenberg]

So this is easier to sort of qualify because I think you look at a few players, some that have either done it before or some that, you know, have a chance to do it again. In the case of Caleb Johnson, you know, first time opportunity for him as a. A running back that's stepping into 263 carries vacated by Naji Harris. We know that Mike Tomlin's history has generally been to use one guy. I think we're definitely going to see two guys. And even Jalen Warren could be considered a breakout candidate because we saw 20, 23, he averaged just over 11 PPR points per game when he was sharing the ball with Harris. He's going to play on passing down. So I think both these guys have an opportunity here. You may want to say, you know, Jalen Warren can be more of a sleeper, Johnson more of a breakout, but I like to try and get one of these Steelers running backs and it kind of bothers me like when I don't. It's similar that thing I say about the 49ers receivers, like if I can get a Jennings or a Pierce off, I get a Caleb Johnson or Jalen Warren. Like one of these guys I think is going to be a strong flex play, potential number two running back. And if one separates from the other, however may happen injury passing game work for Warren and ppr, a significant amount of touchdowns for Caleb Johnson. I think there's going to be a chance for, you know, a number two running back here based on the. The way that Arthur Smith runs his offense. So there's a chance for, you know, one of these guys to have, you know, sort of breakout and then I'll stay with the same team. And DK Metcalf, you know, clearly was problematic last year. Injuries, you know, got outplayed by JSN down the stretch. This could be one of his best years ever, you know, based on how Aaron Rodgers leans on his, you know, top target. So there's a chance here for DK Metcalf to sort of remind you of who he was early in his career when a lot of people were talking about him as the best receiver in dynasty. You know, there was that much upside for him in his first couple of seasons. So I think there's a chance for Metcalf to have sort of this breakout season. Jerry Judy Based on what he showed in this, the sample size with Jameis Winston could easily be a breakout candidate if he could do it over 17 games. Top five receiver last year in those stretch of games to close the season with Jameis Winston, you're getting him at basically wide receiver 25 through 30 in that range, depending on the ADP. You look at huge upside there for him. So Chase Brown, another breakout candidate, you know, again, sort of did it last year, but if he could do it over 16 games, 17 games, you know, how exciting would that be? Based on how he finished the season when he was getting over 20 touches per game, playing over 80 of the snaps, you know, pretty easily, Huge upside there for him as well.

[Adam Azer]

All right, quick break here and we'll talk about some potential busts. Oh, wait, no, no. Before we go to break, order of business here, I put up a Twitter poll last week. Can you be a breakout as a rookie? I thought this was last week. It was only three days ago. Can you be a breakout as a rookie? Dismayed by the results. 62 say yes, 38 say no. I am firmly in the no camp. You apparently are in the yes camp. But like, no, of course you can't be. I mean, what's with you people? Of course you can't be a breakout as a rookie. Also, Zay Flowers I like as a breakout.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

Really?

[Adam Azer]

Yes. Target volume. Volume in general is the only thing holding him back. He is so good. He is incredibly talented, I think. What'd you say?

[Jimmy Azenberg]

I don't disagree with that.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I mean, on another team, I think the worst case scenario for him is. Is Devonte Smith where it's just, it's never gonna happen because they don't throw enough. But he doesn't have A.J. brown competing with him. So I feel like this is the year they get him the ball more. They can. They got him the ball more earlier in the year. I think they continue that. It's not going to be a huge breakout. I don't think he's a chance to be top 12, but I do think he has a chance to be top 18 ish and be a really good value.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

I don't see it, unfortunately. I do think he's going to be one of these guys that his talent never matches his fantasy production because of the team he plays on, like going out and getting DeAndre Hopkins going out and resigning or keeping extending Rashad Bateman. You can't sit here and hype up Isaiah Likely and keep Mark Andrews like it just doesn't make sense if it's still Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. Now if Henry were to get hurt and it's okay, Lamar, you're throwing the ball five more times a game, 10 more times a game, whatever that number is. However you want to say, okay, they're now more pass heavy, which I don't think would be the case, but maybe it does. Then yes, for sure. But the way this team plays offense, I just don't see it.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, sorry. I know where we need a break here and then some busts. But they're a little bit like the 49ers now and they're not going to throw a lot. In fact, the Ravens would be the best bet to have the fewest pass attempts in the NFL. But since Todd Monkin became the offensive coordinator, Lamar Jackson has averaged 8 yards per attempt and 8.8 yards per attempt. So they are becoming a team that even though they're not going to throw a lot, they are going to throw for a decent amount of yards. And Flowers is great after the catch. He just, yeah, he probably needs a few more end zone targets, green zone targets, that kind of stuff. But he's I, I fear the same thing you his, his talent will never match his fantasy production or his fantasy production will never match his talent. But I'm hopeful. All right, quick break and some busts after this.

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[Adam Azer]

Are going to be some busts in the AFC North?

[Jimmy Azenberg]

I'm not gonna say Derek Henry. You're not gonna get it out of me again. Jonah Smith is an obvious one. You know when you just look at where he's coming from to the place that he's going to. Arthur Smith loves John Smith. He just doesn't give Arthur Smith the opportunities that Mike McDaniel gave him. And the targets are not going to be there for him in an offense that is still going to have pat Frying me with playing a significant amount of snaps. And I don't think they're done adding to their receiving course. So take that into account with what I said about DK Metcalf, too. But John, who I think is, you know, he had top five upside in Miami and I hope people are not drafting him still, even as a number one tight end. Like, I'd rather have the two rookies in Loveland and Warren. I'd rather have Tucker Kraft at this point. I'd rather have Jake Ferguson at this point. You know, so he's tight end 16 for me. He dropped basically 10 spots, you know, after this, after the trade, I'm just.

[Adam Azer]

Looking at some ADP over the last four days. And this is on NFC. John, who is still tight in 12, so he's just behind Tucker Craft, but he's ahead of Ferguson, Kincaid, Colson, Loveland likely pits Goddard. So still a little too early. All right, wrap it up. We good? Anything else?

[Jimmy Azenberg]

I can't think of any obvious busts. Oh, Zay Flowers for me.

[Adam Azer]

Well, he's not that high.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

That's why you can't say it.

[Adam Azer]

But yeah, wide receiver 27. I'm seeing him somewhere, you know, something like that. Love for.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

He's in the blob. He definitely is in the blob. You know, 20 through 40. He belongs there. You say wide receiver 18. Right. If things go well for him. Yeah, maybe. I can't see it, though.

[Adam Azer]

I mean, there. There have been guys like Brandon Ayuk have been top 12 with 110 targets, you know, 115 targets. That is about what he was on pace for last year. He had one game, I think week 18. He left early. So it's just the touchdowns. We had four touchdowns last year. They threw 41 touchdowns. If you can get to seven touchdowns. And he's the kind of guy who might be able to do it because he can run away from people.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

And we're gonna have a nice season. He had 116. He had 116 targets last year. It is possible for someone this good to be a top 18 receiver with 116 targets.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

I will. I will say this on Friday's episode, so I'll go look it up. He may have had the best game against Broncos.

[Adam Azer]

Oh, yeah. All right. It's the other thing he does not going to line up traditionally outside and get shadowed by Patrick Certain or anything like that. So start him against the Broncos. Cannot believe he was wide receivers 36 per game, which is shocking. All right, we'll be out of here. We're out of here now. And we'll be back tomorrow. Talk to you on FFT Express.

[Jimmy Azenberg]

See ya.

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