FFT Express - AFC South Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Express: AFC South Preview – Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

Release Date: July 7, 2025

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today Express, hosts Adam Aizer and Heath Cummings delve deep into the intricacies of the AFC South, spotlighting potential sleepers, breakout candidates, and busts that fantasy managers should watch for in their 2025 drafts. Despite initial skepticism about the division's excitement, the duo uncovers several promising players that could significantly impact fantasy leagues.

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Introduction to the AFC South: Setting the Stage

[00:54] Adam Aizer opens the discussion by acknowledging Heath's initial reservations about the AFC South, labeling it as "not the most exciting division." However, Heath swiftly counters this notion by highlighting key players that can transform fantasy outcomes.

Heath Cummings emphasizes the presence of standout talents:

"You've got Brian Thomas Jr. who’s a top pick in the top two rounds. You've got Jonathan Taylor who's one of the best running backs in football. Nico Collins."
[00:54]

Identifying Sleepers in the AFC South

The conversation shifts to uncovering hidden gems within the division that fantasy managers might overlook.

• Jacksonville's Running Backs: Heath suggests that any Jacksonville running back could be a sleeper, especially with the dynamic environment surrounding the team's backfield. He expresses uncertainty about the Basial trio but remains optimistic about potential picks around the 100th pick.

• Brenton Strange – Tight End Opportunity: Highlighting the emergence of Brenton Strange, Heath predicts he will take over the tight end role from Evan Ingram, projecting him as a clear number one tight end. He points out the rarity of tight ends being drafted before the 12th round, making Strange a valuable late-round target.
  [01:12] Heath Cummings

• Josh Downs – A Hidden Wide Receiver Talent: Adam underscores the potential of Josh Downs, noting his Internet popularity and positioning him as a top 24 wide receiver with the right circumstances. Heath concurs, suggesting Downs could be a significant asset if everything aligns for him.
  [05:07]

• Christian Kirk – Overlooked Veteran Wide Receiver: Adam brings attention to Christian Kirk, arguing his value beyond his draft cost. Despite not being a top-120 pick, Kirk's consistent performance could make him a solid pick in later rounds without draining early draft capital.
  [02:12] Adam Aizer

Breakout Candidates: Rising Stars to Watch

The duo discusses potential breakout players, especially focusing on rookies who could make a substantial impact.

• Rookie Sensations: Travis Hunter and Tyler Warren: Heath highlights Travis Hunter, who, despite not being the best college player last year, has immense potential after being drafted second overall. Tyler Warren is also mentioned as a favorite tight end with diverse offensive opportunities.
  [03:20] Heath Cummings

• Nico Collins as a Potential Breakout: Adam posits that Nico Collins could evolve into the top wide receiver, comparing his trajectory to notable receivers like Stefon Diggs. Heath debates whether a breakout requires sustained performance over 17 games but acknowledges Collins' potential.
  [04:15] - [04:39]

• Josh Downs’ Upside: In a dynamic exchange, Adam shares a Twitter poll regarding rookies breaking out, revealing a split opinion among listeners. Heath supports the idea that Josh Downs could rank as a top 24 wide receiver, contingent on favorable development and opportunities.
  [05:48] - [05:32] Heath Cummings

Bust Candidates: Players to Monitor Cautiously

Transitioning to potential pitfalls in the AFC South, Adam and Heath scrutinize players who might not live up to their draft expectations.

• Tony Pollard – Risk of Diminished Role: Heath warns that if Taije Spears maintains his health and continues to handle a significant portion of the carries and scoring, Tony Pollard could underperform, leading to a bust scenario.
  [06:50] Heath Cummings

• Joe Mixon – Injury Concerns and Efficiency: Although Joe Mixon has been a reliable fantasy asset, Heath points out his age and recent injury history as red flags. The risk of Mixon not maintaining his health or efficiency could render him a bust. He further notes that Mixon's average draft position (ADP) might already account for these concerns.
  [07:00] - [08:14] Heath Cummings

• Jonathan Taylor – Defensive Matchups: While Jonathan Taylor is recognized as a top running back, Heath entertains the possibility that Anthony Richardson's defense might limit Taylor's touchdown opportunities. However, he remains skeptical about this scenario.
  [07:00] Heath Cummings

• Brian Thomas Jr. – Dependence on Team Dynamics: Heath mentions that Brian Thomas Jr. could falter if Travis Hunter emerges as the best receiver, potentially sidelining Thomas in offensive schemes.
  [07:45] Heath Cummings

Audience Interaction and Social Media Insights

Adam incorporates audience engagement by sharing a Twitter poll regarding the likelihood of rookies becoming breakout players. The poll results showed a nearly even split, sparking a lively debate between Adam and Heath about the definition and expectation of breakout performances.

Adam Aizer remarks on the fluidity of breakouts within the podcast versus structured articles, highlighting the difference in platforms.
[05:32] Adam Aizer

Final Thoughts and Upcoming Changes

As the episode wraps up, Adam announces a rebranding of FFT Express to "Fantasy Football Today, beyond the Box Score," indicating upcoming content shifts and new hosting roles. This ensures listeners remain engaged with evolving content tailored to their fantasy football needs.
[09:31] Adam Aizer

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Key Takeaways:

• Sleepers to Consider: Brian Thomas Jr., Brenton Strange, Josh Downs, Christian Kirk.
• Potential Breakouts: Travis Hunter, Tyler Warren, Nico Collins.
• Players to Watch as Busts: Tony Pollard, Joe Mixon, Jonathan Taylor, Brian Thomas Jr.
• Audience Engagement: Active discussions on social media platforms influence podcast content and perspectives.

Notable Quotes:

• Heath Cummings on Brenton Strange's value:
  "Brenton Strange gonna be taking over for Evan Ingram this year and should be the clear number one tight end."
  [01:12]

• Adam Aizer on Nico Collins' potential:
  "I think he could be wide receiver one."
  [02:23]

• Heath Cummings on Joe Mixon’s potential as a bust:
  "I have a really hard time fearing a 29-year-old running back who's played 10 games over the last two seasons and was one of the worst rushers in terms of efficiency in football last year."
  [08:14]

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the AFC South division, equipping fantasy football enthusiasts with valuable insights to optimize their draft strategies for the 2025 season. By identifying hidden gems, potential breakout stars, and players to approach with caution, Adam and Heath ensure that listeners are well-prepared to dominate their fantasy leagues.

Transcript

[Adam Azer]

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[Heath Cummings]

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[Adam Azer]

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[Heath Cummings]

Turns out that's very illegal. So there goes my big idea for the commercial.

[Adam Azer]

Give it a [e-mail] Switch upfront payment of $45 for a three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra. See mintmobile.com all right everybody, welcome to Fantasy Football Today Express. We're looking at the AFC south sleepers, breakouts and busts right now. We welcome you here. I'm Adam Azer with Heathcomings and Heath. The AFC south not the most exciting division but there's some players. Now you take exception to this.

[Heath Cummings]

Well, I mean I don't know exactly what you mean by exciting but you've got Brian Thomas Jr. Who's a top pick in the top two rounds. You've got Jonathan Taylor who's one of the best running backs in football. Nico Collins.

[Adam Azer]

Good guys. We got some players.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, this is a great division.

[Adam Azer]

Well I know you had me until that word. Give me a sleeper in the AFC South.

[Heath Cummings]

This is the division of sleepers I would say. I, I. You can make the argument for whatever Jacksonville running back that you would like to. I've talked a lot about how I don't totally get the Basial Tootin Stu. He's currently I believe in CBS ADP the earliest Jags running back being drafted but all three of them are going after pick 100. I love ETN and Bigsby at cost. A Jacksonville running back though is an excellent sleeper choice. Also they have a tight end Brenton Strange gonna be taking over for Evan Ingram this year and should be the clear number one tight end and rarely even getting drafted before round 12 in most of our drafts. I could keep going in this division. Josh Downs ADP is way too low. A very good sleeper opportunity. Maybe even Taije Spears.

[Adam Azer]

I also like Christian Kirk. I think people are forgetting about Christian Kirk. He doesn't have to be great to justify his cost. Christian Kirk is not even a top 120 pick so round 11 or later.

[Heath Cummings]

United fan I'm well I, I just think it's probably not a pass heavy offense. Nico's going to be a dominant wide receiver one and they drafted Jaden Higgins and Jayla Noel who I Think are both pretty good. So I. Yeah, maybe Kirk is a. In like a Wandale Robinson kind of way.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, he's been so much better than Wandale Robinson last year. Zadot was way too high. It was ridiculous before that. I mean he was. He was outperforming Calvin Ridley two years ago. Yeah, Higgins and Noel, they don't really bother me. Round 3 Wide receivers typically wouldn't affect a solid veteran. I still think he's a solid veteran. And again, you don't have to take him with one of your first ten picks, Christian Kirk. Look, Nico was off to a great start last year and Stefan Diggs was very good in that slot role. I think Christian Kirk will step into that. I don't think he'll be as targeted as Diggs, but he'll be good. All right, whatever, you know, Fine, fine. I don't care who's a breakout that.

[Heath Cummings]

Is more difficult to find in this division. I think if we get a breakout, it'll be your favorites kind of breakout. And that is the rookie breakout. What did he break out from? He never played before. Well, you can be a breakout as a rookie and they have some outstanding options. We just talked about Travis Hunter on the main fft and the. The mystery box potential with him arguably and I'm not even sure it was arguable the best player in college football last year and then they trade up to take him number two overall and anything is possible. Tyler Warren, many people's favorite tight end one in this class and you listen about OTAs and they are just finding all kinds of ways to get him the ball. He could break out as a rookie tight end. I don't think there's actually a breakout candid on the Texans so I will skip over them. But you do have the 101cam ward, certainly a breakout candidate.

[Adam Azer]

I think you maybe could argue that Nico Collins is. Is a breakout if he could put together a full season of being unbelievable, which I think he could.

[Heath Cummings]

But yeah, I think that's. People debate that maybe as much as the rookie, but if you've done it for multiple seasons over 12 games, is it a breakout if you do it over 17?

[Adam Azer]

I think he can be better. I think he could. I think he could be wide receiver one. Yeah, okay. Yeah, I do. I mean I'm very, very high on him and if people are considering drafting him in round one, I think you should at least have the hope that he could be wide receiver one. All right, so those are some sleepers and breakouts. Maybe this division has a Lot of busts. We'll see. Oh, by the way, now before we go to break, I thought maybe you'd throw Josh Downs in the breakout category, get him as a sleeper. What do you think the upside is for Josh Downs? I know he's a kind of a Internet favorite.

[Heath Cummings]

He is an Internet favorite and that depends on like I would never call a guy that I think might sneak into the top 24 wide receivers a breakout when I'm doing show with you because I know breakouts when you league sleepers, when you weeks and when your two quarterbacks are Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson. I'm not sure that you have the league winning potential, but I definitely think he could be a top 24 wide receiver if everything goes right.

[Adam Azer]

All right, I want to share my screen here. Let's take a look at this Twitter poll I just put up. Here we go. Can you be a breakout as a Rookie? Pretty close. 55 yes. 55 yes. 45 no.

[Heath Cummings]

The great thing is like I write breakout articles and so I determine what a breakout is within that article. You, you host a podcast and so for as long as you're talking, you can determine what a breakout is. But that ends when I start talking.

[Adam Azer]

I unfortunately will also have to write breakouts this year like I did last year.

[Heath Cummings]

Looking forward to that.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. Well, that makes one of us. Okay, we'll be right back on fantasy football today.

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[Adam Azer]

Let's get some busts in the AFC South.

[Heath Cummings]

This is a strange thing because you kind of poo pooed this division at the start of the stream and I wouldn't do that. But also there are bust candidates but nobody that I'm really concerned about that's being drafted in the first five rounds validating their draft cost so that when I wrote my bust column, there was nobody on any of these four teams that turned out to be a bust. So I'll tell you one guy on each team and how they could be a bust. Tony Pollard. If Taije Spears stays healthy all year and the split of carries we saw inside the five yard line stays the same. And Taje Spears is both handling more of the passing downs work and scoring more touchdowns than Tony Pollard. Then Tony Pollard will be a bust. Joe Mixon, I think we've, we've probably factored in his injury risk enough. The fact that he's in a walking boot and his age. But if he's just not healthy, which last time we saw him he wasn't, then Joe Mixon could be a bust. I don't really see how the Colts are going to be bus. You can make the argument for Jonathan Taylor because Anthony Richardson for the first time in his career is going to stop Jonathan Taylor from scoring touchdowns. I, I don't really believe that. I suppose Brian Thomas Jr. Could be a bust if Travis Hunter is the best wide receiver on the team.

[Adam Azer]

You didn't mention Nick Chubb when talking about mixing. Not a concern for you.

[Heath Cummings]

I, that's, that's another reason that Joe Mixon could be a bust. I have a really hard time fearing a 29 year old running back who's played 10 games over the last two seasons and was one of the worst rushers in terms of efficiency in football last year.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, I, I was gonna go with Tajie Spears. That was the first name. I'm sorry, with, with Tony Pollard. That was the only name that really.

[Heath Cummings]

I just don't, I don't. It seems like, like Mixon because there's some risk with mixing. It seems like with Pollard that's being mostly factored into his adp. Nope. I don't think people are drafting Tony Pollard as a top 24 running back.

[Adam Azer]

I know. I think just outside of that, and I think Josh Downs does have the chance of being overdrafted in a range where you could get like a Matthew golden or something like that.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah. And CBS ADP is outside of the top 100, so I guess in best ball he might be 80th, but he's probably wide receiver 45 in that format.

[Adam Azer]

Are you, are you serious? Because that's exactly what he is. He's 81st and he's wide receiver 45. On fantasy pros, that was 100 a guess. Okay, well, very good.

[Heath Cummings]

Thank you.

[Adam Azer]

If he's a top 80 pick, that's probably too soon for, for Josh Downs. But wide receiver 45 wouldn't necessarily be that. Okay. He. Thank you very much. This is FFT Express. We'll talk to you tomorrow. By the way, on FFT Express, you should know that this feed is getting a new name and a brand new show. This is going to be Fantasy Football Today, beyond the Box Score, hosted by by Jacob Gibbs and Dan Schneier. So if you love beyond the Box Score, this is your place for it. For these quick hit episodes, they're going to live in the main Fantasy Football Today feed. The best thing to do is just subscribe to Fantasy Football Today and stay right here for beyond the Box Score. We'll talk to you tomorrow.