FFT Express - AFC West Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts!

Summary

Fantasy Football Today Episode: FFT Express - AFC West Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts! Release Date: July 9, 2025

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Hosts and Analysts:

• Adam Aizer – Host
• Dave Richard – Analyst

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Introduction to AFC West Overview

The episode kicks off with Adam Aizer diving straight into the AFC West, setting the stage for an in-depth analysis of sleepers, breakouts, and potential busts for the 2025 fantasy football drafts.

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Defensive Analysis

Adam Aizer (00:30):
"The AFC West Awesome Division. We have awesome sleepers and breakouts and some busts. We sure do. We'll tell you right now on FFT Experts."

Adam begins by highlighting the defensive strengths within the AFC West, emphasizing the Denver Broncos as a top defensive unit:

• Denver Broncos Defense:
  • Performance: Adam praises the Broncos' defense, labeling them his number one DST choice for the year.
  • Schedule: Notably favorable starts, including a key Week 1 matchup against Tennessee.
  • Key Players: Cam Ward's NFL debut is anticipated to bolster their defensive prowess.
  • Comparison: Denver's defense is described as "head and shoulders above everybody else in the AFC West," followed by Kansas City, Chargers, and the Raiders, whose defense is seen as less formidable.

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Sleepers in the AFC West

Adam Aizer (01:39):
"The sleepers that I like. Let's start with J.K. Dobbins in Denver. Getting there late in the off season. I think he's their passing downs guy..."

Key Sleepers Identified:

1. J.K. Dobbins (Denver Broncos)

   • Role: Expected to become the primary back for passing downs, potentially replacing Javante Williams.
   • Fantasy Value: Positioned as a late-round value pick due to his versatility and potential increase in targets.

2. Evan Ingram (Denver Broncos)

   • Role: Anticipated to be the second target after Cortland Sutton, with potential to rank as a top 10 fantasy tight end in PPR formats.

3. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

   • Performance: Despite a drop in rankings from top 12, Herbert remains a valuable stash due to his strong finish last year and offensive additions.
   • Potential: Possibility of increased rushing attempts, enhancing his fantasy upside.

Dave Richard (03:16):
"Looking at NFC average draft position where I can set a date range from July 1st through the 8th. RJ Harvey is RB23 and JK Dobbins is RB38, and that is about 50 picks after Harvey."

Discussion Points:

• Draft Positioning: Dave compares the ADP of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins, highlighting Dobbins as a better value despite being drafted later.
• Opportunity and Roster Needs: Adam emphasizes Denver's acquisition of Dobbins, indicating a strategic move to strengthen their RB depth, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects.

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Breakout Candidates in the AFC West

Adam Aizer (04:15):
"I think there's really only two that I could buy into, and they're both rookie running backs. So the most obvious breakout candidate is Ashton Gent..."

Highlighted Breakouts:

1. Ashton Gent (Las Vegas Raiders)

   • Profile: A rookie running back with a strong college pedigree, known for his toughness and ability to break tackles.
   • Team Strategy: Expected to fit seamlessly into the Raiders' run-heavy offense under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly.

2. Amari Hampton (Los Angeles Chargers)

   • Role Evolution: Potential to surpass Najee Harris as the primary running back once the coaching staff recognizes his superior performance in training camp.
   • Fantasy Implications: Initially ranked as RB16 but could outperform his ADP by securing a larger share of the workload by mid-October.

Dave Richard (05:30):
"All right, Hampton's going as RB16. Najee is RB36 over the last week."

Analysis:

• Hampton vs. Harris: While Najee Harris provides consistency, Hampton offers a higher ceiling potential, making him an attractive option for fantasy managers willing to take a calculated risk.
• Timeline: Adam predicts the Chargers will pivot to Hampton later in the season, making him a valuable mid-season acquisition.

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Potential Breakout Wide Receivers

Adam Aizer (05:59):
"You can make the case for Xavier Worthy. After what he did toward the end of last year..."

Candidates:

1. Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs)

   • Performance: Demonstrated strong late-season form with significant receiving yards.
   • Concerns: Uncertainty about maintaining his breakout trajectory despite being the best receiver on the team.

2. Bo Nix (Kansas City Chiefs)

   • Rushing Impact: Increased rushing totals bolster his receiving opportunities, making him a viable breakout option.

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AFC West Busts

Transition to Busts Discussion:
After exploring sleepers and breakouts, the conversation shifts to identifying potential busts within the division.

Adam Aizer (07:19):
"You can make the case. I'm just making the case for two primo tight ends in this division. And you already know who they are. It's going to be Travis Kelce and it's going to be Brock Bowers."

Identified Busts:

1. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)

   • Declining Performance: Signs of slowing down, including reduced yards after catch (YAC) and fewer targets over recent seasons.
   • Fantasy Risk: Potential for diminished touchdown opportunities and inconsistent target volume could lead to disappointing fantasy outcomes.
   • Adam's Take: Kelce remains a later-round tight end option but presents risks if his performance continues to wane.

2. Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders)

   • ADP Concerns: Currently valued within the top 20, but Adam questions whether Bowers can sustain his rookie-year performance, suggesting his ADP may be inflated.
   • Competition and Usage: Increased role of Ashton Gent could siphon targets away from Bowers, limiting his upside.
   • Performance Metrics: Last season's 8.7 targets per game and 15 PPR points as a rookie set high expectations that may not be consistently met.

Dave Richard (08:45):
"I think Kelsey could be horrible. I mean, he showed so much signs of slowing down last year..."

Counterpoints and Considerations:

• Travis Kelce's Resilience: Despite a decline, Kelce could rebound by capitalizing on a high target count and maintaining touchdown progression.
• Brock Bowers’ Potential Bounce-Back: Adam suggests that Bowers might overcome defensive double-teaming and fully realize his target potential, though Dave remains skeptical.

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Final Thoughts on Busts

Dave Richard (11:21):
"I do not care about Jack, you know, not that I don't care about him, but I don't think that's, that's gonna hurt."

Discussion Points:

• Impact of Offensive Shifts: The addition of Ashton Gent could limit Brock Bowers' target opportunities, impacting his fantasy viability.
• Defensive Strategies: Potential defensive game plans aimed at limiting Kelce and Bowers could further hamper their performance.

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Conclusion

As the AFC West undergoes significant changes with new talent and coaching strategies, Adam Aizer and Dave Richard provide a comprehensive analysis of the division's impact on fantasy football. From promising sleepers like J.K. Dobbins and Evan Ingram to breakout candidates Ashton Gent and Amari Hampton, there are several high-upside players to consider. Conversely, veterans like Travis Kelce and emerging talents like Brock Bowers present potential bust scenarios that fantasy managers should monitor closely.

Adam Aizer (12:05):
"It's harder when you're in your second season."

Dave Richard (12:16):
"It's just a guess for me. I can't say that with certainty..."

The discussion underscores the importance of staying informed and flexible during drafts, as the AFC West continues to evolve and influence fantasy football dynamics for the 2025 season.

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Tune in Next Time:
Join Adam and Dave on the next episode of Fantasy Football Today Express for more expert insights and updates to help you dominate your fantasy league.

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Notable Quotes:

• Adam Aizer (01:39):

  "J.K. Dobbins is somebody that I'm looking for on draft day with a value value pick."

• Dave Richard (05:30):

  "All right, Hampton's going as RB16. Najee is RB36 over the last week."

• Adam Aizer (07:19):

  "It's going to be Travis Kelce and it's going to be Brock Bowers."

• Dave Richard (08:45):

  "I think Kelsey could be horrible."

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Note: This summary intentionally excludes advertisement segments and focuses solely on the content-rich discussions between the hosts.

Transcript

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[Adam]

Well, first I want to talk about the defenses real quick. I love the Broncos defense a lot this year. I think they're going to be very good. They're my number one dst. Their schedule is actually great to start the year. They play Cleveland? No, they don't play Cleveland in Week one. I looked in the wrong place. They play Tennessee in Week 1. Even better, they've got Cam Ward's NFL debut at home in Week 1. An amazing matchup, an amazing defense, great secondary, great pass rush, head and shoulders above everybody else in the AFC West. Kansas City's behind them. Chargers closer to Kansas City and then the Raiders defense not very good. So some mixed bag when it comes to the matchups in the AFC West. The sleepers that I like. Let's start with J.K. dobbins in Denver. Getting there late in the off season. I think he's their passing downs guy. I think he's going to replace Javante Williams in that role. RJ Harvey's got a long way to go to earn it, and I think Dobbins could eat into the rushing downs, work with Harvey as well. Curious to see how that works out, but J.K. dobbins is somebody that I'm looking for on draft day with a value value pick. Evan Ingram, also somebody that I'm looking at as a sleeper in Denver, could be the number two target getter behind Cortland Sutton there and could finish as a top 10 fantasy tight end, especially in PPR. And one quarterback that's a sleeper, Justin Herbert finished so strong last year and I know that the, the Chargers added so much to their, to their offense and they're going to want to run the ball. There's going to be games where you're going to see Justin Herbert throw. I wouldn't be surprised if you see him run a little bit. I started the off season with him ranked as a top 12 quarterback. He's fallen from there, but he's somebody that I wouldn't mind stashing with my last pick.

[Dave Richard]

Dave, looking at NFC average draft position where I can set a date range from July 1st through the 8th. RJ Harvey is RB23 and JK Dobbins is RB38, and that is about 50 picks after Harvey.

[Adam]

Yeah, I, I love the value in Dobbins more than Harvey. I. I've said this before on the main show, Adam, when we were like ramping up for the draft, we never talked about RJ Harvey. And that's not to say that he's a bad player. It's just that he never really got our attention. Now he got Sean Payton's attention. That obviously means a lot more than him getting our attention. And opportunity means more than anything else when it comes to fantasy football. But I just. The, the fact that they went through a couple of OTAs and then they decided to sign JK Dobbins, obviously that tells me that they needed something for that running back room that they didn't have on the roster already, and I think that ends up being a factor this year.

[Dave Richard]

All right, so how about some breakouts in the AFC West?

[Adam]

I think there's really only two that I could buy into, and they're both rookie running backs. So the most obvious breakout candidate is Ashton Gent. He comes into the NFL and after a great college career, just a unique talent because he's so stout, strong, shakes off tackles. He's going to be an awesome running back and the Raiders are going to run the ball a ton this year. It's Pete Carroll's way, it's Chip Kelly's way. They got the best running back in the draft. I think he'll be great, and I think that Amari and Hampton can be a breakout running back as well. I think it'll take a little while because Najee Harris has been solid veteran for a long time, doesn't really get hurt. It's going to take the Chargers coaching staff realizing that Amar and Hampton is the better player before they give Hampton the lion's share of the rushing workload. That could potentially happen in September if Hampton outplays Najee in training camp, but I would guess that's something that's going to happen like mid October somewhere in that range and I think people are going to draft Hampton as if he is the main guy to start the year. They might be disappointed in September, but by the time we get to Halloween they'll be really happy with having Omarion Hampton on their fantasy team.

[Dave Richard]

All right, Hampton's going as RB16. Najee is RB36 over the last week.

[Adam]

This is not like the Denver situation. I don't look at Najee as the better value here at all. Naji is more of the type of running back that I want. If I'm going 0 RB and I just need a running back that's going to get me off to a decent a decent start to begin the year, I think Harris could do that. I don't think he can be a league winner or anything close to that.

[Dave Richard]

Anyone else you want to mention as a breakout?

[Adam]

You can make the case for Xavier Worthy. After what he did toward the end of last year and what he brings to that chief's offense, I'm just not sure that he's going to run away, pun intended. With being the best receiver in Kansas City. You can make the case for Bo Nicks to have a better year than he had last year. You talked about it on our show on on Tuesday that that Bo Nix got off to a terrible start and then really turned it around. His per game pace was outstanding in the second half of the year. If he can build on that, given the additions to this offense in Denver, then yeah, he could absolutely be a breakout candidate.

[Dave Richard]

And Bonix is rushing totals really, really help him as well. All right, let's take a break on Fantasy football today and let's talk about some busts in the AFC west when we come back.

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[Dave Richard]

Here on FFT Express. All right, busts in the AFC West.

[Adam]

You can make the case. I'm just making the case for two primo tight ends in this division. And you already know who they are. It's going to be Travis Kelsey and it's going to be Brock Bowers. Bowers, more so based on ADP. His ADP is like, in the top 20. I think the Raiders offense is going to change dramatically from what we saw last year. Better quarterback, no question about it, but they couldn't run the ball worth a lick. Now they're going to be able to with Genti in that backfield. And I think we're going to see the Raiders come down and pass attempts come down in pass rate. They added two receivers in the draft. They've got more options for the passing game. Bowers can still lead the way. Bowers can still be a top three fantasy tight end, maybe even top two, maybe even the top one. But I don't think he's worthy of being a top 20 pick because I don't know if he'll be able to fully replicate the 8.7 targets per game he had last year or the 15 PPR points per game that he had as a rookie last year. And with Kelsey, you saw it at the beginning of 2024, Rasheed Rice was dominating those inside targets. We're looking at targets inside the numbers. He was crushing it there. He's obviously faster than Travis Kelce at this point. Better Yak candidate Kelsey. If he doesn't get touchdowns, you can see what happens to his fantasy production could be disappointing. But we're drafting him at a later price point than we were at any point in like the last seven years. So I guess that's already baked into his adp.

[Dave Richard]

I think Kelsey could be horrible. I mean, he showed so much signs of slowing down last year. He's not making guys miss. His Yak was just dreadful. And he was getting about three or four targets per game in three games with Rasheed Rice. And that was without Marquis Brown at that point. And that was with Xavier Worthy barely being a factor. I. And. And he lost his. He lost his, you know, end zone role. In fact, Noah Gray was getting as much, you know, attention in the end zone as Kelsey for at least for a stretch. So I, I'm just. I can't say I'm completely out on him because like you said, he is going Later. But, you know, I, I, I think there's a possibility he's at 110 targets or something like that, doing not much with them.

[Adam]

I mean, you could also make the case that he could bounce back just by virtue of 110 targets and six or seven touchdowns. He could have positive touchdown progression.

[Dave Richard]

It could, yeah.

[Adam]

I mean, and he could easily do it because if. What were defenses doing at the beginning of last season on obvious passing downs? They were taking Kelsey away. And if, if teams go into this year saying, all right, we've got a plan for Rice, we got a plan for Worthy, they might not be able to dedicate the resources that they used to to Kelsey. And Kelsey can still win in contested catch situations. I like that he lost weight, so maybe he's a little bit quicker than he was last year.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, Yeah.

[Adam]

I think if you're drafting him as the fifth or sixth tight end off the board, it's not the worst thing in the world.

[Dave Richard]

I'm trying to lose a little weight, Dave.

[Adam]

Me too.

[Dave Richard]

Tough.

[Adam]

Yeah, it is. You know, and, and just to go back to Bowers, obviously I'm not taking him as a top 20 pick in my draft, but if I'm at the beginning of round two, he's absolutely going to be on my radar. I like McBride better, but I, I just, you don't want to draft anybody too close to their ceiling.

[Dave Richard]

And I just think that it's, it's, it's weird to say that's his ceiling. When he, he scored how many touchdowns last year?

[Adam]

4, 5, 6 hours? We're talking about.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah, yeah. You know, so that would be the argument. He scored five touchdowns on 153 targets. You know, I don't know why this is his ceiling. He did that as a rookie. Basically the greatest rookie season we've ever seen from a tight end. He came into the league with this kind of pedigree. I don't really think he has much competition to be worried about him. He's by far the most talented player in that receiving core. I do not care about Jack, you know, not that I don't care about him, but I don't think that's, that's gonna hurt.

[Adam]

No, you can't say, watch out for Jack Bash. And that's going to ruin about. It's Genti. It's Genti that really strikes me as a, as a problem for Bowers, because not only does that take Bowers out of the, you know, routine targets in goal to go situations, because they can just run it with Genti and he'll score from a yard out to 10 yards out.

[Dave Richard]

Right.

[Adam]

But Genti is also a really good pass catcher out of the backfield. And remember the type of coverage that we just got done talking about with Kelsey. What do you think is going to happen with Bowers this coming year?

[Dave Richard]

I. I guess I just don't really buy that argument because then we could never draft great players because every year. What do you think is going to happen?

[Adam]

Overcome the double. It's harder when you're in your second season.

[Dave Richard]

I don't know. I mean, I'm sure they were double teaming him last year. Who were they focusing on last year? Trent Jacoby? Myers? Harris? You know, it's a fair point. Wasn't double teamed last year.

[Adam]

Fair point.

[Dave Richard]

Yeah. All right. Well, of course it's just a guess for me. I can't say that with certainty, but I can say with certainty this is the end of the show and we will talk to you tomorrow on Fantasy Football Today Express. See you later.

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