Fantasy Football Today Episode: FFT Express - AFC West Preview: Sleepers, Breakouts & Busts for 2025 Drafts! Release Date: July 9, 2025

Hosts and Analysts:

• Adam Aizer – Host
• Dave Richard – Analyst

Introduction to AFC West Overview

The episode kicks off with Adam Aizer diving straight into the AFC West, setting the stage for an in-depth analysis of sleepers, breakouts, and potential busts for the 2025 fantasy football drafts.

Defensive Analysis

Adam Aizer (00:30):
"The AFC West Awesome Division. We have awesome sleepers and breakouts and some busts. We sure do. We'll tell you right now on FFT Experts."

Adam begins by highlighting the defensive strengths within the AFC West, emphasizing the Denver Broncos as a top defensive unit:

• Denver Broncos Defense:
  • Performance: Adam praises the Broncos' defense, labeling them his number one DST choice for the year.
  • Schedule: Notably favorable starts, including a key Week 1 matchup against Tennessee.
  • Key Players: Cam Ward's NFL debut is anticipated to bolster their defensive prowess.
  • Comparison: Denver's defense is described as "head and shoulders above everybody else in the AFC West," followed by Kansas City, Chargers, and the Raiders, whose defense is seen as less formidable.

Sleepers in the AFC West

Adam Aizer (01:39):
"The sleepers that I like. Let's start with J.K. Dobbins in Denver. Getting there late in the off season. I think he's their passing downs guy..."

Key Sleepers Identified:

1. J.K. Dobbins (Denver Broncos)

   • Role: Expected to become the primary back for passing downs, potentially replacing Javante Williams.
   • Fantasy Value: Positioned as a late-round value pick due to his versatility and potential increase in targets.

2. Evan Ingram (Denver Broncos)

   • Role: Anticipated to be the second target after Cortland Sutton, with potential to rank as a top 10 fantasy tight end in PPR formats.

3. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)

   • Performance: Despite a drop in rankings from top 12, Herbert remains a valuable stash due to his strong finish last year and offensive additions.
   • Potential: Possibility of increased rushing attempts, enhancing his fantasy upside.

Dave Richard (03:16):
"Looking at NFC average draft position where I can set a date range from July 1st through the 8th. RJ Harvey is RB23 and JK Dobbins is RB38, and that is about 50 picks after Harvey."

Discussion Points:

• Draft Positioning: Dave compares the ADP of RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins, highlighting Dobbins as a better value despite being drafted later.
• Opportunity and Roster Needs: Adam emphasizes Denver's acquisition of Dobbins, indicating a strategic move to strengthen their RB depth, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects.

Breakout Candidates in the AFC West

Adam Aizer (04:15):
"I think there's really only two that I could buy into, and they're both rookie running backs. So the most obvious breakout candidate is Ashton Gent..."

Highlighted Breakouts:

1. Ashton Gent (Las Vegas Raiders)

   • Profile: A rookie running back with a strong college pedigree, known for his toughness and ability to break tackles.
   • Team Strategy: Expected to fit seamlessly into the Raiders' run-heavy offense under Pete Carroll and Chip Kelly.

2. Amari Hampton (Los Angeles Chargers)

   • Role Evolution: Potential to surpass Najee Harris as the primary running back once the coaching staff recognizes his superior performance in training camp.
   • Fantasy Implications: Initially ranked as RB16 but could outperform his ADP by securing a larger share of the workload by mid-October.

Dave Richard (05:30):
"All right, Hampton's going as RB16. Najee is RB36 over the last week."

Analysis:

• Hampton vs. Harris: While Najee Harris provides consistency, Hampton offers a higher ceiling potential, making him an attractive option for fantasy managers willing to take a calculated risk.
• Timeline: Adam predicts the Chargers will pivot to Hampton later in the season, making him a valuable mid-season acquisition.

Potential Breakout Wide Receivers

Adam Aizer (05:59):
"You can make the case for Xavier Worthy. After what he did toward the end of last year..."

Candidates:

1. Xavier Worthy (Kansas City Chiefs)

   • Performance: Demonstrated strong late-season form with significant receiving yards.
   • Concerns: Uncertainty about maintaining his breakout trajectory despite being the best receiver on the team.

2. Bo Nix (Kansas City Chiefs)

   • Rushing Impact: Increased rushing totals bolster his receiving opportunities, making him a viable breakout option.

AFC West Busts

Transition to Busts Discussion:
After exploring sleepers and breakouts, the conversation shifts to identifying potential busts within the division.

Adam Aizer (07:19):
"You can make the case. I'm just making the case for two primo tight ends in this division. And you already know who they are. It's going to be Travis Kelce and it's going to be Brock Bowers."

Identified Busts:

1. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs)

   • Declining Performance: Signs of slowing down, including reduced yards after catch (YAC) and fewer targets over recent seasons.
   • Fantasy Risk: Potential for diminished touchdown opportunities and inconsistent target volume could lead to disappointing fantasy outcomes.
   • Adam's Take: Kelce remains a later-round tight end option but presents risks if his performance continues to wane.

2. Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders)

   • ADP Concerns: Currently valued within the top 20, but Adam questions whether Bowers can sustain his rookie-year performance, suggesting his ADP may be inflated.
   • Competition and Usage: Increased role of Ashton Gent could siphon targets away from Bowers, limiting his upside.
   • Performance Metrics: Last season's 8.7 targets per game and 15 PPR points as a rookie set high expectations that may not be consistently met.

Dave Richard (08:45):
"I think Kelsey could be horrible. I mean, he showed so much signs of slowing down last year..."

Counterpoints and Considerations:

• Travis Kelce's Resilience: Despite a decline, Kelce could rebound by capitalizing on a high target count and maintaining touchdown progression.
• Brock Bowers’ Potential Bounce-Back: Adam suggests that Bowers might overcome defensive double-teaming and fully realize his target potential, though Dave remains skeptical.

Final Thoughts on Busts

Dave Richard (11:21):
"I do not care about Jack, you know, not that I don't care about him, but I don't think that's, that's gonna hurt."

Discussion Points:

• Impact of Offensive Shifts: The addition of Ashton Gent could limit Brock Bowers' target opportunities, impacting his fantasy viability.
• Defensive Strategies: Potential defensive game plans aimed at limiting Kelce and Bowers could further hamper their performance.

Conclusion

As the AFC West undergoes significant changes with new talent and coaching strategies, Adam Aizer and Dave Richard provide a comprehensive analysis of the division's impact on fantasy football. From promising sleepers like J.K. Dobbins and Evan Ingram to breakout candidates Ashton Gent and Amari Hampton, there are several high-upside players to consider. Conversely, veterans like Travis Kelce and emerging talents like Brock Bowers present potential bust scenarios that fantasy managers should monitor closely.

Adam Aizer (12:05):
"It's harder when you're in your second season."

Dave Richard (12:16):
"It's just a guess for me. I can't say that with certainty..."

The discussion underscores the importance of staying informed and flexible during drafts, as the AFC West continues to evolve and influence fantasy football dynamics for the 2025 season.

Tune in Next Time:
Join Adam and Dave on the next episode of Fantasy Football Today Express for more expert insights and updates to help you dominate your fantasy league.

Notable Quotes:

• Adam Aizer (01:39):

  "J.K. Dobbins is somebody that I'm looking for on draft day with a value value pick."

• Dave Richard (05:30):

  "All right, Hampton's going as RB16. Najee is RB36 over the last week."

• Adam Aizer (07:19):

  "It's going to be Travis Kelce and it's going to be Brock Bowers."

• Dave Richard (08:45):

  "I think Kelsey could be horrible."

Note: This summary intentionally excludes advertisement segments and focuses solely on the content-rich discussions between the hosts.