FFT Express - BUST ALERT! Players to Avoid in 2025 Fantasy Football! (05/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: FFT Express - BUST ALERT! Players to Avoid in 2025 Fantasy Football!

Release Date: May 17, 2025
Episode: FFT Express - BUST ALERT! Players to Avoid in 2025 Fantasy Football! (05/15 Fantasy Football Podcast)
Hosts: Jamie, Chris, Adam Aizer

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Introduction

In the latest episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosts Jamie and Chris delve into FFT Express, focusing on identifying potential busts for the 2025 Fantasy Football season. The discussion revolves around key positions, analyzing why certain high-profile players might underperform and advising fantasy managers on whom to avoid drafting in the early rounds.

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Quarterback Busts

Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen

Chris initiates the conversation by expressing skepticism about drafting top-tier quarterbacks like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in the early rounds. He emphasizes the depth at the quarterback position, suggesting that late-round options or undrafted players could offer comparable production without the early-round investment.

"I just can't justify taking one of those guys that early based on how the position goes year over year where we get somebody or two or three guys that come out of, you know, the undrafted pool or the late round options that are just close to that production or at least productive enough that you get, you know, standout performances."
— Chris [01:37]

Chris also highlights Jaden Daniels and Baker Mayfield as examples of quarterbacks who have shown promise but may not sustain their early performance levels consistently.

"If drafted as a starter, a late round starter. Baker Mayfield was a superstar. Bo Nix was a, you know, capable starter for, you know, the back half of the season."
— Chris [01:29]

Analysis

The hosts agree that while quarterbacks like Jackson and Allen are undeniably talented, the value they offer relative to their draft position may not justify their early selection, especially given the abundance of viable alternatives available later in drafts.

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Running Back Busts

Saquon Barkley

Chris names Saquon Barkley as a significant potential bust, citing concerns over his workload and diminishing returns. Despite Barkley's stellar performance last season, averaging over 2,000 rushing yards, Chris questions the sustainability of such high production.

"His profile is really not that different from Derrick Henry's. It’s not nothing, but they're both kind of lower catch guys. Rely a lot on touchdowns, efficiency, workload."
— Jamie [03:55]

Jamie adds depth to this analysis by pointing out the historical trend of 2,000-yard rushers experiencing a decline in efficiency the following season.

"Pretty sure every single 2000 yard running back has lost at least one yard per carry from the previous season. So the efficiency is going to go down."
— Jamie [03:55]

Alvin Kamara

The discussion shifts to Alvin Kamara, who is flagged due to his age, injury history, and uncertain future in the Saints' offense following coaching changes.

"He’s somebody that I'm terrified of even in PPR."
— Chris [06:10]

Chris expresses concerns about Kamara's diminished role and the potential reduction in his receiving targets, which could significantly impact his fantasy value.

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Wide Receiver Busts

Mike Evans

Chris identifies Mike Evans as a potential bust, primarily due to his age (turning 32) and the evolving dynamics within his team. Despite a strong finish last season, Evans' early-season performance was lackluster, and the introduction of a new first-round receiver could limit his targets.

"I'm almost certainly out on Mike Evans if you have to draft him in the first three rounds. And every draft I've seen so far, he goes basically in the first three rounds."
— Chris [07:03]

Jamie reinforces these points by highlighting the role reversal between Evans and Chris Godwin, emphasizing Evans' inconsistent performance and the potential for reduced targets.

"Godwin was on pace for 150 targets in those six. Was a big, big role reversal really for Evans."
— Jamie [08:46]

Devonta Adams

Chris voices concerns about Devonta Adams, especially in light of the Rams' run-heavy offense which could limit his opportunities. He points out the uncertainty surrounding Adams' role and the Rams' offensive strategy shift.

"I'm concerned and I think there's reasons to be a little bit worried about Devonta Adams, especially again based on how fantasy managers still value his name and what he was able to do with the Jets."
— Chris [09:10]

Jamie adds that the Rams' inclination towards a run-heavy approach could further suppress Adams' fantasy output, making him a less reliable pick.

"This is another team that might want to be very run heavy if they're in the right game script, if they're winning games."
— Jamie [10:43]

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Tight End Busts

No discussion on tight ends was included in this segment of the transcript.

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Conclusion

In wrapping up the FFT Express segment, Jamie and Chris underscore the importance of evaluating player roles, team dynamics, and historical performance trends when identifying potential busts. They advise fantasy managers to approach high-profile players with caution, especially those who may face increased competition for targets or have shown signs of declining efficiency.

"That's it for Jamie and me. I'm Adam Azer. That's it for Fantasy Football Today Express. We will talk to you next week. Have a great weekend, everybody."
— Adam Azer [10:43]

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Final Thoughts

This episode serves as a critical guide for fantasy football enthusiasts aiming to navigate the complexities of player valuation. By highlighting potential busts across key positions, Jamie and Chris provide valuable insights to help managers make informed drafting decisions and optimize their fantasy teams for the upcoming season.

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Key Takeaways

• Quarterbacks: Consider delaying top-tier QBs like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen due to position depth.
• Running Backs: Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara present significant risks due to workload concerns and team dynamics.
• Wide Receivers: Mike Evans and Devonta Adams may underperform based on age, team changes, and offensive strategies.
• Strategic Drafting: Focus on player roles, historical performance, and team offense trends to avoid early-round busts.

Recommendations

• Stay Informed: Keep abreast of team changes and player performance trends throughout the offseason.
• Flexible Draft Strategy: Be prepared to adjust your draft strategy based on late-breaking news and emerging player roles.
• Diversify Picks: Avoid over-reliance on high-profile players who may carry bust risks; diversify your roster to mitigate potential losses.

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For more insights and detailed analyses, subscribe to Fantasy Football Today and stay ahead in your league!

Transcript

[Adrian]

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[Jamie]

18 + DNC supply we're talking biggest busts, potential busts right now. Fantasy Football Today Express hi Jamie, I got a problem with this topic. You know me, I'm just such a positive person. I just, I love every player and I have a problem. I can't figure out any busts. It's just they're all gonna be great.

[Chris]

Nice guy, dude.

[Jamie]

I know you know me, the fantasy that's of a name. Fantasy guy who loves everyone.

[Chris]

Yes, Fantasy smiles. That's you.

[Jamie]

There you go. Fantasy smiles. Fantasy hugs and kisses. Okay, so who are some busts at the quarterback position?

[Chris]

Quarterback is tough for me because it's such a deep position that I don't really look at it and say right now that I want to see what the ADPs are because that's typically what it, how it drives it for me. So it'll, it'll probably end up being Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen, depending on who goes first in the first round. I just can't justify taking one of those guys that early based on how the position goes year over year where we get somebody or two or three guys that come out of, you know, the undrafted pool or the late round options that are just close to that production or at least productive enough that you get, you know, standout performances. And some guys last year, Jaden Daniels, clearly he was, you know, if drafted as a starter, a late round starter. Baker Mayfield was a superstar. Bo Nix was A, you know, capable starter for, you know, the back half of the season. You know, it just doesn't make sense to reach for those guys early. So I understand why they're being drafted early because, you know, we talk about not losing your league when you pick these volatile players in the first couple of rounds. And these guys are typically standout quarterbacks for a reason, but I just can't justify taking them in in the first round. So we can skip quarterback for now. That's more of a ADP conversation. I'll start at the top, though. It's a guy that a lot of people think is, you know, first overall and that's Saquon Barkley for me. I, I won't be drafting him a lot if he's going in the first five overall picks. Clearly he was amazing last year. You know, I, I, I was excited about him last year, you know, and that, that proved itself to be better than I think most people's expectations because the tush push didn't crush him. He ran for over 2, 000 yards. He was, you know, a superstar in every, you know, aspect of the game and looked like the guy that we saw early in his Giants tenure. But based on everything that he's coming off of, the workload is too much. The history of 2000 yard rushers, there's a slight decline, you know, for almost all these guys. There have been eight prior to him. He's the ninth guy to ever do it in NFL history and two of the eight got hurt the next year in Terrell Davis and Derrick Henry. And so the, the track record is just not in his favor of being as good or better. And so, you know, we talked about this just on the full length episode. We talked about maybe doing an episode about this, drafting guys at their ceiling. Most first round picks are getting drafted at their ceiling anyway, but it feels like everybody's expecting him just to roll out and do the exact same thing they did a year ago. And for me, that's a little bit too hard to justify.

[Jamie]

Yeah, Barkley, he, in addition to the, you know, the downfall. Not the downfall, the decrease in production Jamie, that you see from the 2000 yard running backs. Pretty sure every single 2000 yard running back has lost at least one yard per carry from the previous season. So the efficiency is going to go down. He averaged 5.8 yards per carry and he only had, he only was on pace for 35 catches. So his profile is really not that different from Derrick Henry's. Right. I mean, Henry had 19 catches. Barkley had 35. It's not nothing, but they're both kind of lower catch guys. Rely a lot on touchdowns, efficiency, workload. Henry. Henry goes a lot later than, than Saquon Barkley. So for what that's worth are any other busts. You want to talk about running back.

[Chris]

We go with the guy that was in news this week and that's Alvin Kamara. You know, looking at the situation now, quarterback play could be awful. So we know that the, the scoring potential for the Saints could be pretty bad. You know, you've done a great job illustrating how bottom offenses, how what they produce. You know, it's usually at least one good running back or one good wide receiver and I think he'll still be good. But we're talking about a guy that missed three games last year with a groin injury, is 30 years old now. I think we'll lose some touches to whether it's Kendra Miller or Devin who they drafted. And who knows what Kellen Moore will do in terms of throwing the ball to him as much. You know, remember this was somewhat of a seamless transition for the coaching staff. When Sean Payton left, you know, it was a lot of the same guys stayed and Dennis Allen kind of continued a lot of the same things that they were doing. And I don't know if Kellen Moore is going to do that. I mean, you know, you just mentioned Saquon Barkley's receptions. We know Barkley's been one of the best pass catching running backs in his tenure in the league and they did not do that. And so, you know, whether it's Tyler Shuck or Spencer Rattler, whoever it is, I mean, think about the quarterback potential of this team. It could just be completely awful. And so we know he doesn't score a lot of rushing touchdowns to begin with and he's not going to get a lot of, he's not going to get better running the ball at his age with this offense. So if the receptions, I don't want to say crater because I don't think that's going to be the case. But if they come down 20 receptions more than that, like it could be awful for him. So he's somebody that I'm terrified of even in ppr.

[Jamie]

All right, Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley. All right, we're going to take a break, come back and talk wide receivers and tight ends bust potential. Right. Right after this on FFT Express.

[Tiki]

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[Jamie]

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[Jamie]

About some wide receivers?

[Chris]

I'll start with Mike Evans. You know, last year he finished the season amazing once again and, you know, did a good enough job before he suffered the hamstring injury, was out for four games. But when you go back to those first seven games, it was week seven when both he and Chris Godwin got injured. He was not the best receiver on his team. Chris Godwin was outperforming him by a significant margin. It was like five ppr points per game at that point. And so he had some spike games in there, but clearly was not the same guy who was averaging around 14 PPR points per game. He finished better than that in the back end of the season. Well, what did the Bucks do? They re signed Chris Godwin and they drafted a receiver in the first round. And so while Evans should still be the best receiver for the Bucks and you can sit here and say Abuka may not play very much in his rookie campaign and Godwin's coming off a significant injury may not be the same guy. Those are valid arguments, but you also are talking about Mike Evans turning 32 and we know the track record of those guys. So for me, I'm almost certainly out on Mike Evans if you have to draft him in the first three rounds. And every draft I've seen so far, he goes basically in the first three rounds. Round four, I think is worth the gamble. Anything after that is certainly a steal. But for me, I don't plan on targeting him very much this season. I think it's going to be frustrating to be in the Mike Evans camp because of all the mouse defeat in Tampa Bay. Yeah.

[Jamie]

Also another thing I never really talk about and I, I don't know if this is going to happen again, obviously, but BAKER Mayfield, weeks one through nine, he averaged 35 pass attempts per game. Weeks 10, through the postseason, he averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game. And they went four and five in their first nine games. They went six and three down the stretch when they were running the ball more, throwing it less. Now I Think the schedule had a lot to do with that. They had some easier opponents there, but I, I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if they were a little bit more conservative, a little bit more run heavy this year than what we might expect. Okay, anyone else you want to talk about?

[Chris]

I'm trying to find my list so I give you all the accurate ones.

[Jamie]

While you do that. Mike Evans was the number 23 wide receiver per game with Chris Godwin. First six games of the year, he was on pace for only 119 targets. Godman was on pace for 150 targets in those six. Was a big, big role reversal really for Evans. Once Godwin got hurt, Evans became the clear alpha. What do you got?

[Chris]

It's pretty crazy, right, how much better Godwin was?

[Jamie]

Yeah, it really is. It was top. It was the number two receiver or number four per game. Anything else? Sorry, I'm trying to kill time for you.

[Chris]

Yeah. Devonte Adams still scares me. I know he talked about this the other day, but, you know, going from the one to the two, I don't know if I'm gonna call him a bus, but it's just somebody that makes me concerned. So you look at the situation for the Rams, it's great, right? He could be Cooper Cup. Cup was off to a great start. But what if Adams was not. Is not that guy? And the way that they finished the season, how Cooper Cup's role devolves and it was all Pukinakua again. 32 year old receiver. Is he going to still produce at that level? I'm concerned and I think there's reasons to be a little bit worried about devonte Adams, especially again based on the how fantasy managers still value his name and what he was able to do with the Jets. Well, remember what he was with the Raiders when he didn't have Aaron Rodgers. It wasn't great.

[Jamie]

Well, he was he the one year he was great.

[Chris]

No, no. I mean last year before the trade.

[Jamie]

Oh, last year, yeah, yeah.

[Chris]

Wasn't great. And you know, we're talking about a guy that was, if I remember that correctly, I think I have like 14 PBR points per game. That's nerve wracking. You know, if you're taking him in in the third round to be, you know, that caliber of player. So this was what it was three games with the Raiders. He was at 14.9 PPR points per game. Very serviceable number to receiver if that's what he's getting. But that's more toward the back end of the position as opposed to the front end. So still makes me a little bit concerned going to the Rams, knowing that Puka is going to get so many opportunities and we've never really seen Devonte Adams clearly in the number two role and I think he'll be in the number two role.

[Jamie]

And this is another team, the Rams, that got very run heavy down the stretch. Weeks 13 through 17 Matthew Stafford threw 24, 30, 27, 19, 32 passes. Playoff win against Minnesota. He threw 27 passes. Then he threw 44 in the loss to Philadelphia. But this is another team that might want to be very run heavy if they're in the right game script, if they're winning games. And they probably will win a good amount of games this year. All right, that's it for Jamie and me. I'm Adam Azer. That's it for Fantasy Football Today Express. We will talk to you next week. Have a great weekend, everybody.

[Adrian]

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[Jamie]

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[Chris]

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[Adrian]

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