FFT Express: Stop Reaching! 4 Players Going Way Too Early in Fantasy Drafts! (06/05 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: FFT Express – "Stop Reaching! 4 Players Going Way Too Early in Fantasy Drafts!" (Release Date: June 7, 2025)

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosts Adam Aizer, Jamie Eisenberg, Dave Richard, Heath Cummings, and the FFT crew dive deep into the intricacies of fantasy drafts, pinpointing four players whom they believe are being selected prematurely. The discussion is anchored around analyzing Average Draft Positions (ADP) and determining optimal drafting strategies to maximize league success.

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1. Quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson’s Early Selection

Timestamp: 00:59 - 03:10

The episode kicks off with Jamie Eisenberg addressing the overzealous drafting of quarterbacks, specifically spotlighting Lamar Jackson's ADP. Currently positioned at the 17th overall pick, Jackson is significantly ahead of his closest competitor, Josh Allen, who sits at the 31st overall.

• Jamie Eisenberg states, "We're looking at the early average draft position on CBSSports.com drafts and players that might be going a little bit too soon." (00:59)

• Dave Richard counters the trend, emphasizing that while Lamar Jackson is an entertaining and productive quarterback, opting for Josh Allen might be a safer and more strategic choice: "I'd rather have Allen; I just feel like he's safer. The track record's a little bit safer... people are starting to understand that they can wait a little bit on quarterback." (02:10)

The consensus is that quarterbacks, being a deep position, don't need to be targeted in the early rounds. Managers can secure high-performing QBs in the middle to late rounds without sacrificing overall team strength.

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2. Tight Ends: George Kittle’s Draft Timing

Timestamp: 03:10 - 05:53

Transitioning to the tight end position, Jamie Eisenberg highlights George Kittle's placement at the 32nd overall pick, questioning whether this is too early given his recent performance and injury history.

• Jamie Eisenberg remarks, "32 feels like a little bit too soon... Should George Kittle be going early in round or in round three?" (03:51)

• Dave Richard agrees, suggesting that Kittle should be a late round four pick: "I think round four would be the sweet spot for Kittle." He cites his consistent but not elite PPR (Points Per Reception) performances over recent seasons as a reason to hold back on drafting him early.

The discussion underscores the importance of evaluating a player's consistency and injury risk before committing high draft capital, especially at positions like tight end where positional scarcity can be managed with savvy drafting.

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3. Running Backs: Alvin Kamara’s Early Rush

Timestamp: 05:53 - 07:22

Alvin Kamara is the next focal point, currently being drafted at the 40th overall spot. Jamie Eisenberg expresses concerns over Kamara's sustainability and the potential decline in his offensive environment.

• Jamie Eisenberg questions the value of drafting Kamara this early, highlighting uncertainties such as his age, recent injuries, and the Saints' potentially struggling offense: "...maybe to make it back. But you have Duan Jennings... Is he going to be the target getter, number one target getter for the 49ers?" (06:25)

• Dave Richard defends Kamara’s placement, acknowledging his talent and consistent PPR output despite potential offensive shortcomings: "A lot of us do with the catches that he gets in full PPR... I’m happy to get a running back of that caliber who has the upside to get 17 plus PPR points per game in round four." (06:37)

While Kamara remains a valuable asset, the debate centers on whether his current ADP accurately reflects his future performance, given external factors that could impact his output.

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4. Running Backs: Omari Hampton’s Draft Position

Timestamp: 07:22 - 10:43

Omari Hampton, positioned at 45th overall, is scrutinized for being drafted too early, especially considering his role within the Chargers’ backfield and his status as a potential second running back.

• Jamie Eisenberg raises concerns about Hampton sharing touches and the uncertainty surrounding his workload: "Taking him in round four just seems too soon." (08:05)

• Dave Richard partially concurs, anticipating Hampton’s ADP might rise slightly but still argues for his talent and potential role flexibility: "I don't think he'll fall that much farther... he could end up being a reliable number two running back in fantasy lineups." (09:26)

The conversation highlights the delicate balance between a player's current talent and their projected role, emphasizing the need for patience with players like Hampton who may ramp up as the season progresses.

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5. Overall Draft Strategy Insights

Throughout the episode, the hosts emphasize the importance of:

• Position Depth: Recognizing that certain positions, like quarterback and tight end, have ample depth, allowing managers to wait on drafting early premium options.

• Value Over Volume: Prioritizing players who offer consistent performance over those who may carry higher risk due to injuries or volatile roles.

• ADP Awareness: Understanding average draft positions helps in identifying when a player might be overvalued, providing opportunities to grab undervalued talent in later rounds.

• Injury Considerations: Factoring in a player's injury history and current health status is crucial in determining their reliability throughout the fantasy season.

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Conclusion

The Fantasy Football Today episode serves as a strategic guide for managers aiming to optimize their drafts by avoiding the pitfalls of reaching for players too early. By analyzing ADP trends and player-specific circumstances, the hosts provide actionable insights to enhance draft decisions, ultimately steering listeners towards more informed and effective fantasy football strategies.

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Note: Timestamps correspond to the moments in the transcript where the discussed points are made.

Transcript

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[Jamie Eisenberg]

18/ DNC supply players who are going too soon based on our early average draft position what we're talking about here on Fantasy Football Today Express. I'm Jamie Eisenberg, that's Dave Richard. This is FFD Express. We're looking at the early average draft position on CBSSports.com drafts and players that might be going a little bit too soon. And let's start with a quarterback in particular and really just all the quarterbacks because we know you guys, despite what we tell you in one quarterback leagues will still take quarterbacks too soon. And the first one coming off the board in our early ADP is Lamar Jackson, the 17th overall player. Just to sort of put that in perspective, Jackson is at 17 and then the next quarterback is Josh Allen at 31. That feels like the right time to take the first quarterback. 31st player overall, 17th overall for Lamar Jackson. Six points for passing touchdowns. You're not getting a significant advantage for him necessarily based on the other quarterbacks. Dave why are people still taking Lamar Jackson and any quarterback in particular in the first 20 overall picks?

[Dave Richard]

I think people love drafting Lamar for the most obvious reasons. He's fun to watch, he's productive because of the rushing upside. I don't understand why he's going two rounds or not two rounds, but let's call it one round one plus ahead of Josh Allen when Josh Allen has been doing the exact same thing. I'd rather have Allen I just feel like he's safer. The track record's a little bit safer than it is with somebody like Lamar Jackson, but that's. That's picking your poison. The thing that stands out to me is that you can get jaden Daniels at 39. So that's round four and we just got done doing the main FFT show. Heath says one of the guys he's always targeting is Jaden Daniels and he loves getting him in round four. I don't know who would hate getting him in late round three, much less round four. So that's an ADP that I can totally get behind. This ADP shows me, Jamie, that outside of a couple of quarterbacks, people are starting to get it. They're understanding that they can wait a little bit on quarterback. They don't have to take one in round one in a one QB league, they don't even have to take one in round two. They're starting to understand that the position is deep and that they can wait to get a good quarterback at a fair value. And that should be the goal of every fantasy drafter this year.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Next player we'll talk about is George Kittle. And I think there's going to be a clear three tight ends that are going to be at the top, whether it's Bowers, 1, McBride, 2, Kittle, 3. I think Kittle will settle with the third spot, but some people I know, I do. I think you do as well, like McBride ahead of Bowers, Bowers going as the 16th overall player, McBride is the 23rd overall player. And then George Kittle at 32 overall. And I think what we'll end up seeing is just how far will Kittle be away from the top two tight ends? And 32 feels like a little bit too soon. Knowing that he's older, he's coming off a great season, but he does tend to miss a game or two. Should George Kittle be going early in round or in round three?

[Dave Richard]

Excuse me. No, I think he's a late round four pick and that's just kind of playing it safe. But it's also remembering what George Kittle averaged before last season. I think people are using recency bias and believing that George Kittle is going to be over 15 PPR points per game for the second year in a row when he hasn't done that in a long time. 2021, 13.7 PPR points per game. 2022, 13.3, 2023. This is just two seasons ago, folks. 12.7 PPR points per game. I think if you look at them and you say, okay, here's a tight end that you can set your watch to for 13 PPR points per game, you'd say, great, why would I take that guy in round three when I can get a receiver or running back that'll average more points per game than that? Or wait for a tight end that'll get around 10 or 11 PPR points per game like five rounds later if you wanted to. I think round four would be the sweet spot for Kittle.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I think the positive for Kittle. We talked about this on the full length episode is when is IU coming back? Well, we don't know. Could be early in the season, could be mid season, could be late in the season. You're coming off a pretty devastating knee injury. We haven't really heard a lot of positive updates yet about when IUK will be back on the field. By comparison, Stefan Diggs in New England is already taking part in OTAs. No brace, just running around. So we'll see if IUK's able to avoid the PUP list potentially and maybe make it back. But you have Duan Jennings, who has never been a featured guy consistently. Is he going to be the target getter, number one target getter for the 49ers? You have Ricky Pearsall coming off a very incomplete rookie season, showed a lot of great flashes at the end of 2024, but already dealing with a hamstring injury and who knows when he he'll be ready to go in training camp and may have to deal with some concerns. George Kittle is tried and true. He's one of Brock Purdy's go to guys and one of the go to guys for Kyle Shanahan. Round three may be the best spot to take him and he may be better than bowers and Trey McBride. So I agree. I'd rather wait till round four. But you may be getting a steal if you get him even in round three based on his role in the 49ers offense and still being a very productive guy. All right, we're going to take a quick break here on FFT Express when we get back. When we come back, we're going to talk about two other players that may be getting drafted a little bit too soon, specifically Alvin Kamara.

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[Jamie Eisenberg]

All right, let's talk about Alvin Kamara and just his ADP. Right now it's 40th, 40th player getting selected in our early ADP. You seem to like that. I don't. Tell me why you like camara at the 40th spot.

[Dave Richard]

I just think it's fair. I don't think that he's worth reaching for in round three when we're talking about 40th overall in a 10 at the end of round four. 12 team league. That's the middle of round four. And for a guy who just has consistently gotten it done for fantasy managers, a lot of us do with the catches that he gets in full PPR, but he's been consistently over like 17 PPR points per game. I know he's older. I know that offense is going to suck. The quarterback's going to suck. I buy into him and his opportunity. I still think he's a talented guy. I'm happy to get a running back of that caliber who has the upside to get 17 plus PPR points per game in round four. I don't know if there's another running back in that range that has that type of upside.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I asked you this on the full length episode when we were talking about the Saints quarterbacks. You said this offense could be one of the worst in football. I agree. Quarterback situation could be one of the worst in football. Maybe the worst with Derek Carr now retired. Now he did put up some good numbers with Spencer Rattler. There is a new coach in place in Kellen Moore. The touchdowns though could be extremely hard to come by. Look, he's gonna get 60 plus catches. I think that goes without saying. But he's 30 years old now. Last year missed three games with a groin injury. Who do you have to worry about breaking down at this point? And just how much can he handle with all the attention he's going to get, Knowing that the running production may be absolutely brutal and maybe coaching change. Obviously Allen did not like Dennis. Allen did not like Kendra Miller. Maybe Miller gets a chance to carry the ball, play a little bit more. Maybe Devin Neal, the rookie that they drafted, gets a chance to cut into some of Camaro's workload. I'm just concerned about really just the environment around him. It could be absolutely unbelievably brutal for him. And so yes, in ppr, he's safer than in the other formats because you don't have to worry about the touchdowns. But if he goes sub 50 in his reception total, knowing that he's probably going to be six touchdowns, maybe maybe eight at most. But I think six to eight is probably the range you're looking at based on his, you know, last several years. Like this could be a really bad season for a guy that is hitting those, you know, benchmarks of numbers that could start to start, you know, trend south. So for me, round five would be the earliest I would take him in. Just some running backs that are going after him that I like. You said this on the show. You'd rather have Chuba Hubbard, he's going at 47th overall. James Connor, I think even an older running back there, I would rather have him than Alvin Kamara. If J.K. dobbins does not go to Denver, I'd rather have R.J. harvey, who's going at 51st behind Camara. And just the value of some of the wide receivers. Terry McLaurin, I'd rather have Mike Evans, even at his age. I'd rather have DJ Moore. I'd rather have at this point, you know, so there's some receivers I'd be taking over. Alvin Kamara as well. So I just do not like him at, at the 40th overall spot. And then Omarion Hampton is the next guy and the final guy we'll talk about, he's at 45th overall. That just seems way too soon for a guy that's going to be sharing to some capacity. Whether you think he's the lead running back or the second running back for the Chargers. Taking him in round four just seems too soon.

[Dave Richard]

It is a little too soon. And I think, I think the, the public will catch up to that. But I don't think he'll fall that much farther. Like it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up with an ADP of like 52nd overall, 53rd overall. And that still might be too rich for your blood, Jamie, but I think he's the more talented running back in la. I like how Jim Harbaugh thinks that he's an explosive three down player. We knew the explosive part was right, the three down part. I'm not sure if we're really going to see a lot of that, but maybe we will. I, I think it, we saw last year with the Chargers coaching staff when they realized that Gus Edwards was dust. They put more on JK Dobbins plate, they might see real quickly that Omari and Hampton is the better talent than Naji Harris. And so if I'm, if I'm getting Hampton in round five, I think that's a fair value. I'm going to be patient, obviously, but I think certainly by the second half of the year, if not by October, he could end up being a reliable number two running back in fantasy lineups. You don't even think twice about playing, pulling him.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

I hope so. It just, I, I don't think that Gus Edwards and Naji Harris belong in the same conversation based on their careers. I think that we do have a coaching staff. You talked about this. I mean, going back to what Harbaugh did with his freshman running backs, like, he just doesn't seem to.

[Dave Richard]

That's true.

[Jamie Eisenberg]

Play a lot of these guys early and yes, they spent first round capital on him. And yes, the contract for Naji Harris isn't that great. I just always go back to this, that veteran players like him that don't do a lot of explosive things, they also don't do a lot of things that are going to kill your team and so doesn't fumble, never miss the game due to injury. Like, while we will sit here and say, oh my God, Hampton is much better. You know, we, we say this all the time. You got a Ferrari in the garage and you're, you know, you're driving a Yugo. It's. It doesn't make a lot of sense to not necessarily play your more talented player. But coaches are coaches and especially, you know, grizzled veteran coaches like this guy is. And his offense coordinator is like, will they give him the chances to get more than a minimal amount of opportunities, especially early in the season? So maybe it is October, like you said. Maybe it's not until December and they realize it. Maybe this is the first year Najee misses time due to injury or starts to fumble. Who knows? But I just don't think that we're going to get the ceiling for Hampton barring an injury or just something dramatically changing for what Najee's profile has been. So I'm a little bit concerned. And that's why I like Hampton. He's my favorite Chargers running back by a lot. But I just don't think taking him in round four at this current situate, current juncture makes a lot of sense. But we have plenty of time to talk about average draft position as we have many more drafts coming as the summer unfolds. So great conversation so far. I look forward to more of them about average draft position in the future. For Dave Richard, I'm Jamie Eisenberg. Thanks for watching. Thanks for listening.

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