Fantasy Football Today: FFT Express - Week 16 Starts & Sits Part 2! Top Starts, Sits, and Must-Avoids for NFC Home Games

Release Date: December 21, 2024

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by Adam Aizer with analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, the crew delves deep into the strategic decisions required for Week 16 of the NFL season. Focusing on starts, sits, and waiver wire recommendations, the discussion is particularly tailored for NFC home game matchups. Below is a comprehensive summary of the key points, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

1. Beat the Waiver Wire

Adam Aizer kicks off the segment by providing a detailed analysis of players and defenses worth adding to fantasy rosters for the upcoming week.

• Defenses (DSTs):

  • Colts DST: Despite being highly rostered, Adam suggests caution. “The Colts are pretty highly rostered already. People have been near the punch on them” ([02:47]).
  • Buccaneers DST: Viewed as a favorable matchup.
  • Dolphins vs. Cleveland DST: With a 52% availability, this defense is considered a viable option.
  • Raiders DST: Although they face the Saints, Adam notes their recent improved performance. “It's a little risky, but that defense has been playing a little bit better lately” ([02:47]).
  • Chargers DST: Highly rostered, but availability might open up post-Thursday games.

• Quarterbacks (QBs):

  • Aaron Rodgers (Buffalo): If he performs well and Buffalo's defense falters, Rodgers could be a starter. Available in about 50% of CBS Sports leagues.
  • Michael Penix: 61% available, plays the Commanders in week 17.
  • Other QBs to Watch: Aiden O'Connell, Drake Maye, Rudolph Mac Jones, Bryce Young – Adam expresses skepticism about their reliability.

• Running Backs (RBs):

  • Ty J. Spears (Tennessee): 40% available and deemed a must-add.
  • Kendre Miller: 36% available, likely the Saints' RB for the rest of the season.
  • Patrick Taylor (49ers): 52% available.
  • Alexander Mattison (30% available): Recommended for smaller leagues.

• Wide Receivers (WRs):

  • Jaylen McMillan: 51% available, encouraged to be grabbed.
  • Romeo Dobbs: 35% available, potential for a breakout game with the Packers.
  • Others: Chris Olave (37%), Marquis Brown, Jalen Culver, Keon Coleman – all suggested as valuable additions.

• Tight Ends (TEs):

  • Brenton Strange (Tennessee): 70% available. Despite a tough matchup, his involvement in check-downs makes him a viable option.
  • Jake Ferguson: 40% available, limited red-zone opportunities.
  • Isaiah Likely: 57% available, with increased target potential if Rashad Bateman is out.

Notable Quote: Adam emphasizes strategic additions, saying, “Master the art of strategic retreats to minimize cube losses, adding another layer to your gameplay” ([02:47]).

2. Starts and Sits

The conversation shifts to evaluating which players to start or sit for Week 16, focusing on activation status and matchup implications.

• Defensive Starts:

  • Colts vs. Titans DST: Initially considered, but Adam prefers the Buccaneers DST for their favorable matchup ([06:12]).
  • Bills DST: Despite defensive struggles, recommended over the Colts DST. “I like the Bills better. I think they're both startable options.” ([06:12])

• Running Backs:

  • Jerome Ford vs. Brian Robinson Jr.:

    • Jerome Ford: Facing Cincinnati with a favorable workload. Adam advocates for starting him over others. “[...] He should get at least three catches in the game” ([06:22]).
    • Brian Robinson Jr.: Dave opts to start Robinson over Ford, citing matchup concerns ([06:41]).

  • Bucky Irving (Green Bay): Increased activation (63% from 39% last week). Adam trusts his ability to perform through both ground and air, especially against the Cowboys. “I expect a high scoring game between the Bucks and the Cowboys and Bucky Irving is just playing well” ([07:30]).

  • Breece Hall: Conditional on being cleared for play. If active, he’s a strong start due to likely uptick in touches ([07:58]).

  • Kendra Miller: Questionable due to the Packers’ strong run defense. Adam rates him as a desperation pick and not a top-tier RB option ([08:25]).

Notable Quote: Adam advises caution with RBs, stating, “I would start him over Naji Harris. Brian Robinson? I would start him over the Raiders running backs” ([06:24]).

• Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
  • Najah Evans vs. Brenton Strange: Najah is preferred in PPR formats if he plays, over Strange who might not see increased targets ([10:18]).
  • Ramandre Madison vs. Patrick Taylor: Madison is favored due to a more favorable game script against Jacksonville ([11:42]).

Notable Quote: Dave questions Adam's preference: “Wait, did Dave say the Falcons over the Bills?” prompting a clarification on tight end picks based on player activity ([10:11]-[10:17]).

3. Final Lineup Decisions

In the concluding segment, Adam and Dave finalize their recommendations for Week 16 lineups, addressing last-minute considerations and matchup specifics.

• Defensive Picks:

  • Eagles DST: Despite a challenging matchup against the Commanders, Adam recommends the Eagles for their consistent performance. “I like to count on strong defenses and I think they're one of them” ([11:21]).

• Running Back Decisions:

  • Isaiah Pacheco vs. Brian Robinson Jr.: Adam prefers Robinson due to defensive matchups, but considers starting Ty J. Spears if Tony Pollard is out ([10:39]-[11:17]).

  • Spencer Dowdle vs. Breece Hall: Adam opts for Dowdle over Hall, even if Hall is available, based on matchup and usage ([12:16]).

Notable Quote: Adam remarks on game scripts affecting RB performance: “Can Kendra Miller score a touchdown? I think it's always possible [...] but game script could work against him” ([08:25]).

4. Key Takeaways and Strategic Insights

• Waiver Wire Strategy: Focus on players with favorable matchups and increasing activation rates. Prioritize RBs like Ty J. Spears and WRs like Jaylen McMillan.

• Matchup Importance: Evaluating defensive strengths and game scripts is crucial in making start/sit decisions. Players facing weaker defenses or in high-scoring games offer better fantasy potential.

• Flexibility and Depth: Maintain a versatile roster by stashing potential breakout players and being ready to adjust based on last-minute injuries or changes.

Closing Remarks: Adam and Dave emphasize the importance of staying informed and flexible as Week 16 approaches. They encourage listeners to leverage the waiver wire effectively and make informed start/sit decisions to maximize their chances of success in their fantasy leagues.

Conclusion

This episode of Fantasy Football Today provides invaluable insights for fantasy managers gearing up for Week 16. By meticulously analyzing waiver wire options and making strategic start/sit decisions based on player activity and matchups, Adam and Dave equip listeners with the tools needed to optimize their fantasy rosters and secure victories in their leagues.

For more detailed discussions and personalized advice, tune into the full episode on your preferred podcast platform.