FFT Express - Week 16 Starts & Sits Part 2! Top Starts, Sits, and Must-Avoids for NFC Home Games

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: FFT Express - Week 16 Starts & Sits Part 2! Top Starts, Sits, and Must-Avoids for NFC Home Games

Release Date: December 21, 2024

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, hosted by Adam Aizer with analysts Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, and Heath Cummings, the crew delves deep into the strategic decisions required for Week 16 of the NFL season. Focusing on starts, sits, and waiver wire recommendations, the discussion is particularly tailored for NFC home game matchups. Below is a comprehensive summary of the key points, insights, and conclusions from the episode.

---

1. Beat the Waiver Wire

Adam Aizer kicks off the segment by providing a detailed analysis of players and defenses worth adding to fantasy rosters for the upcoming week.

• Defenses (DSTs):

  • Colts DST: Despite being highly rostered, Adam suggests caution. “The Colts are pretty highly rostered already. People have been near the punch on them” ([02:47]).
  • Buccaneers DST: Viewed as a favorable matchup.
  • Dolphins vs. Cleveland DST: With a 52% availability, this defense is considered a viable option.
  • Raiders DST: Although they face the Saints, Adam notes their recent improved performance. “It's a little risky, but that defense has been playing a little bit better lately” ([02:47]).
  • Chargers DST: Highly rostered, but availability might open up post-Thursday games.

• Quarterbacks (QBs):

  • Aaron Rodgers (Buffalo): If he performs well and Buffalo's defense falters, Rodgers could be a starter. Available in about 50% of CBS Sports leagues.
  • Michael Penix: 61% available, plays the Commanders in week 17.
  • Other QBs to Watch: Aiden O'Connell, Drake Maye, Rudolph Mac Jones, Bryce Young – Adam expresses skepticism about their reliability.

• Running Backs (RBs):

  • Ty J. Spears (Tennessee): 40% available and deemed a must-add.
  • Kendre Miller: 36% available, likely the Saints' RB for the rest of the season.
  • Patrick Taylor (49ers): 52% available.
  • Alexander Mattison (30% available): Recommended for smaller leagues.

• Wide Receivers (WRs):

  • Jaylen McMillan: 51% available, encouraged to be grabbed.
  • Romeo Dobbs: 35% available, potential for a breakout game with the Packers.
  • Others: Chris Olave (37%), Marquis Brown, Jalen Culver, Keon Coleman – all suggested as valuable additions.

• Tight Ends (TEs):

  • Brenton Strange (Tennessee): 70% available. Despite a tough matchup, his involvement in check-downs makes him a viable option.
  • Jake Ferguson: 40% available, limited red-zone opportunities.
  • Isaiah Likely: 57% available, with increased target potential if Rashad Bateman is out.

Notable Quote: Adam emphasizes strategic additions, saying, “Master the art of strategic retreats to minimize cube losses, adding another layer to your gameplay” ([02:47]).

---

2. Starts and Sits

The conversation shifts to evaluating which players to start or sit for Week 16, focusing on activation status and matchup implications.

• Defensive Starts:

  • Colts vs. Titans DST: Initially considered, but Adam prefers the Buccaneers DST for their favorable matchup ([06:12]).
  • Bills DST: Despite defensive struggles, recommended over the Colts DST. “I like the Bills better. I think they're both startable options.” ([06:12])

• Running Backs:

  • Jerome Ford vs. Brian Robinson Jr.:

    • Jerome Ford: Facing Cincinnati with a favorable workload. Adam advocates for starting him over others. “[...] He should get at least three catches in the game” ([06:22]).
    • Brian Robinson Jr.: Dave opts to start Robinson over Ford, citing matchup concerns ([06:41]).

  • Bucky Irving (Green Bay): Increased activation (63% from 39% last week). Adam trusts his ability to perform through both ground and air, especially against the Cowboys. “I expect a high scoring game between the Bucks and the Cowboys and Bucky Irving is just playing well” ([07:30]).

  • Breece Hall: Conditional on being cleared for play. If active, he’s a strong start due to likely uptick in touches ([07:58]).

  • Kendra Miller: Questionable due to the Packers’ strong run defense. Adam rates him as a desperation pick and not a top-tier RB option ([08:25]).

Notable Quote: Adam advises caution with RBs, stating, “I would start him over Naji Harris. Brian Robinson? I would start him over the Raiders running backs” ([06:24]).

• Wide Receivers and Tight Ends:
  • Najah Evans vs. Brenton Strange: Najah is preferred in PPR formats if he plays, over Strange who might not see increased targets ([10:18]).
  • Ramandre Madison vs. Patrick Taylor: Madison is favored due to a more favorable game script against Jacksonville ([11:42]).

Notable Quote: Dave questions Adam's preference: “Wait, did Dave say the Falcons over the Bills?” prompting a clarification on tight end picks based on player activity ([10:11]-[10:17]).

---

3. Final Lineup Decisions

In the concluding segment, Adam and Dave finalize their recommendations for Week 16 lineups, addressing last-minute considerations and matchup specifics.

• Defensive Picks:

  • Eagles DST: Despite a challenging matchup against the Commanders, Adam recommends the Eagles for their consistent performance. “I like to count on strong defenses and I think they're one of them” ([11:21]).

• Running Back Decisions:

  • Isaiah Pacheco vs. Brian Robinson Jr.: Adam prefers Robinson due to defensive matchups, but considers starting Ty J. Spears if Tony Pollard is out ([10:39]-[11:17]).

  • Spencer Dowdle vs. Breece Hall: Adam opts for Dowdle over Hall, even if Hall is available, based on matchup and usage ([12:16]).

Notable Quote: Adam remarks on game scripts affecting RB performance: “Can Kendra Miller score a touchdown? I think it's always possible [...] but game script could work against him” ([08:25]).

---

4. Key Takeaways and Strategic Insights

• Waiver Wire Strategy: Focus on players with favorable matchups and increasing activation rates. Prioritize RBs like Ty J. Spears and WRs like Jaylen McMillan.

• Matchup Importance: Evaluating defensive strengths and game scripts is crucial in making start/sit decisions. Players facing weaker defenses or in high-scoring games offer better fantasy potential.

• Flexibility and Depth: Maintain a versatile roster by stashing potential breakout players and being ready to adjust based on last-minute injuries or changes.

Closing Remarks: Adam and Dave emphasize the importance of staying informed and flexible as Week 16 approaches. They encourage listeners to leverage the waiver wire effectively and make informed start/sit decisions to maximize their chances of success in their fantasy leagues.

---

Conclusion

This episode of Fantasy Football Today provides invaluable insights for fantasy managers gearing up for Week 16. By meticulously analyzing waiver wire options and making strategic start/sit decisions based on player activity and matchups, Adam and Dave equip listeners with the tools needed to optimize their fantasy rosters and secure victories in their leagues.

For more detailed discussions and personalized advice, tune into the full episode on your preferred podcast platform.

Transcript

[Host 1]

Dive into the thrilling world of Marvel Snap, an award winning collectible card game that fuses deep strategy with your favorite Marvel characters. With its unique snapping mechanic and stunning card art from renowned artists, it's a game designed to collect and conquer. Get ready for fast paced matches. Each game lasts only three minutes. Your goal Win two out of three locations by having a higher total power than your opponent. Build your strategy with 12 unique cards, no duplicates and navigate over 80 diverse locations, each with game altering effects that can turn the tide of battle. Climb the ranks by winning battles and earning cosmic cubes, you'll rank up every seven cubes collected. Feel confident? Use the Snap mechanic to double the stakes, but be cautious. Max stakes can reach eight cubes impacting your rank after each match. Master the art of strategic retreats to minimize cube losses, adding another layer to your gameplay. With vast collection of over 270 cards and more than 2, 000 unique art variants, there's always something new to discover. Regular updates. Introduce new cards weekly and fresh seasons monthly. Keeping the excitement alive. Join a vibrant community. Collect stunning cards and dominate the competitive landscape. Download Marvel Snap now on iOS, Android and Steam to start playing this award winning collectible card game.

[Dave]

I've been eating at Chipotle for at least 15 years and for me, chicken burrito, white rice, guac, salsa, that's my order. But I tried something new the other day. It's Chipotle's Smoked Brisket and I'll be trying it again and again and again. It's so good. Seasoned with Mexican spices and finished with a smoky sauce with Chipotle peppers. It's got so much flavor and it's got spice, but it's not too spicy. Now you trust me for fantasy advice, I give even better food advice. Go get Chipotle Smoked Brisket. But Chipotle Smoked Brisket is only here for a limited time, so you need to go try it. It's available in all Chipotle restaurants, the Chipotle app or chipotle.com I'm a changed man. I am a brisket believer. Go get the Chipotle Smoked brisket right now. Starts and sits on fantasy football today. What's up and welcome. Yeah, I didn't like that one either. Dave, Adam and Dave here talking about week 16. I don't know why I get so confused. Week 16 starts and says I'm looking at the most activated players, players who were on the bench that are now being started. But before we do that, we do have some Beat the waiver wire. Two of you need to beat the waiver wire for next week, right? Well, four of you, but only will matter for only two of you. Dave, who should we be looking at to be doing.

[Adam]

Yeah, let's think positively. If we win this week, we're playing in week 17. That's either the championship or semifinal, depending on how ridiculous your league is. I'll start with dsts. Colts are pretty highly rostered already. People have been near the punch on them. And the Buccaneers, both of them favorable matchups. The Dolphins play at Cleveland in week 17. That's a 52% availability right there. And I don't know if you can trust the Raiders at 92% available. They do take on the Saints. It's. It's a little risky, but that defense has been playing a little bit better lately. Also the Chargers highly rostered already. You might be able to get them on Tuesday depending on how your league is at quarterback. The case for Aaron Rodgers at Buffalo in week 17 is this. If he looks good again and if Buffalo's defense struggles again, then you'll have more confidence to start Aaron Rodgers. He's available in about half of CBS sports leagues. There's a lot of other quarterbacks that are just like eh. I don't feel great about Aiden O'Connell, Drake May Mason, Rudolph Mack Jones and Bryce Young. But I do think it might be worth the stash. And this is if you're struggling at quarterback or if your possible opponent in week 17 is struggling. Michael Penix, 61% available. He plays the Commanders in week 17. The list for running backs. This isn't necessarily a week 17 list. This is just guys I want to stash. Ty J. Spears is still 40% available if he ends up starting for Tennessee. He's a must. You gotta get him. Kendre Miller, 36% available. Should be the Saints running back the rest of the season. Patrick Taylor for the 49ers, 52% available. And in those smaller leagues. Alexander Madison, 30% available. Receivers. Jaylen McMillan. What's wrong with you guys? He's still available in 51% of leagues. I would go and grab him. I would consider stashing Romeo Dobbs, 35% available. He because what if he has another big game for the Packers? Then you'll feel a lot more confident in him being their number one guy. Other wide receivers to stash. Chris Olave, especially if you have an IR spot. 37% available. And then Marquis Brown, Jalen Coker. I've been saying Keon Coleman's name. Those three would be on the list. You can throw Romo Dun in there as well. Tight end Brenton Strange, still available in about 70% of CBS sports leagues, gets Tennessee in week 17. Not an easy matchup, but one where I think the Jaguars will have a tough time running. And that means check downs from Mac, Jones Breton. Strange gets those. I will still bang the drum. It'll just be a quiet bang for Jake Ferguson. 40% available. He's got Philadelphia. Entering this week, Philadelphia is allowed 9.7 half PPR points to a tight end four times five games. Isaiah likely is the other name. 57% available takes on Houston entering this week. Houston's allowed at least 8.6 half PPR points to four of the past five tight ends. And what if Rashad Bateman is out this week, next week? Maybe Isaiah likely does see an uptick in targets.

[Dave]

Okay, good stuff and let's get to the week 16 start. Sit, you know, dilemmas and talk about the players who are being activated, who are being put in lineups. First of all, you mentioned the Colts DST as a stash, but they're actually the most activated. They've gone from 10 started to 50 started for their matchup against the Titans. The Bills have been horrible defensively, but their DST is going from 33 started to 72 started. Do you like the Colts or the Bills DST this week?

[Adam]

I like the Bills better. I think they're both startable options. I would start the packers and the Falcons over both of them.

[Dave]

Jerome Ford is the most activated non DST and it makes sense.

[Adam]

Yes.

[Dave]

Who would you start Jerome Ford over?

[Adam]

Start him over Naji Harris. Brian Robinson? I would start him over the Raiders running backs. I would start him over Kendra Miller, certainly over Zach Charbonnet if Ken Walker is active. But he's, he's kind of a middle to low end number two fantasy running back.

[Dave]

I actually am going to start Rob Brian Robinson Jr. Over Jerome Ford.

[Adam]

Just like man, Jerome Ford's playing Cincinnati and he's got a good, good workload in front of him. Should play about two thirds of the snaps. Might have a tough time scoring a touchdown certainly from inside the five. That could go to Deontay Foreman. But I, I sent you the information on Dorian Thompson. Robinson, his accuracy on throws 10 plus yards downfield is terrible. He's. He should be leaning on Jerome Ford quite a bit. Should get at least three catches in the game. He has. What, what, what did you say? 11 catches in three games?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Adam]

DTR last year. Okay, that's not so bad. I can do the math on that. It's almost four a game that helps provide a safe floor for a boom bust back like Ford.

[Dave]

Bucky Irving is on the most activated list.

[Adam]

Jamie Eisenberg start of the week and I think I like him more than Jamie does. I expect a high scoring game between the Bucks and the Cowboys and Bucky Irving is just playing well. We know that he can win on the ground, we know that he can win through the air and I don't think it's a cinch that Rashad White is getting every short yardage goal line carry for Tampa. Bucky could get in there as well.

[Dave]

Bree hall is now up to 63% started from 39 last week. Do you have faith in Breece Hall?

[Adam]

I I have faith if he isn't on the injury report and that's what it seems like. I know that there's some confusion there, but if he's cleared and good to go then yeah, I think Breeze hall should see it. Certainly an uptick in touches and hopefully it looks better than he did last week. But the match against the Rams look a lot of teams have run the ball very well against the Rams 49ers not withstanding last week.

[Dave]

And then we've got Kendry Miller. Let's talk about him.

[Adam]

Let's talk about him. I love the talent, don't love the situation, although I think the offensive line there is good. But the packers run defense has been great over their last five games. 3.7 yards per carry. Can Kendra Miller score a touchdown? I I think it's always possible when it comes to a running back that should touch the ball as much as Kendra Miller is going to touch the ball. But game script could work against him, could take carries away from him in the second half and so I would pump the brakes on Miller as more of like a desperation running back this week. Not even a top 24 running back. All those running backs that I talked about as guys who I would sit for Jerome Ford, almost all of them. I would start ahead of Kendra Miller.

[Dave]

All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back with your questions in the YouTube chat on FFT Express.

[Host 1]

The holidays are one of the busiest times of the year, but Amazon is here to make things easier and more affordable this season. Take your budget further. With low prices on tons of items for everyone in your life, Amazon has the best gifts for everyone. From the latest tech to professional level sports gear and more. Whether you're shopping for that perfect gift for your game day crew or upgrading your own home entertainment setup for the next big match. Amazon has you covered. Forget the stress of finding the right gift. Amazon makes it easy with low prices and the perfect items for everyone. Gear up for last minute deals and gifts with Amazon where you'll find the great prices on the hottest gadgets, sports apparel and more. It's the one stop shop for all your holiday needs whether you're gifting or treating yourself. Make this holiday season stress free with Amazon selection, value and convenience. Shop now and get everything you need for the holidays and beyond Amazon, where joy meets savings all season long.

[Dave]

Here we go. Let's finish up with Mel saying Wait, did Dave say the Falcons over the Bills?

[Adam]

I did.

[Dave]

All right, Najoku if he plays Craft.

[Adam]

Or Strange PPR if Najoku plays. I will start Najoku but I would not expect Najoku to go. Count on Strange being your pick in full PPR.

[Dave]

Brian Robinson Jr. Or Breece hall if.

[Adam]

Breeze is cleared and good to go. I'm gonna start him over Brian Robinson. I don't like the matchup for Brian Robinson.

[Dave]

We got Pacheco or Brian Robinson Jr. And Patrick Taylor or Spears.

[Adam]

I don't like the matchup for Brian Robinson, but I don't like what I've seen from Isaiah Pacheco where he's sharing with two other running backs and and honestly, the Texans matchup, it's not the worst in the world, but they did just shut down Devon Han on the ground last week. I would start Robinson over Pacheco and I would go with Spears on the bench over Taylor. Am I cutting Pacheco for Spears? I'll tell you what, I I might consider that because if Tony Pollard is out, I'll start Spears over both Robinson and Pacheco. But Tony Pollard's got to be out for that to happen.

[Dave]

Pick my DST Cardinals, Eagles, Lions or Raiders?

[Adam]

It's the Eagles and I know it's a difficult matchup against the Commanders, but I just I like to count on strong defenses and I think they're one of them. Again, this is another situation where I would double check the waiver wire for packers and Falcons DSTs at minimum ahead of Philadelphia.

[Dave]

Ramandre Madison, Patrick Taylor pick one.

[Adam]

I might end up going with Madison because Ramandre Stevenson very game script dependent and this is a game where I think the Patriots are going to be chasing points and that's usually very bad for Ramon Ray Stevenson, who's almost a touchdown or bus running back to begin with and you could almost see Alexander Madison. We talked about this on the main show. Jamie Eisenberg was way into Madison because of the matchup against Jacksonville. It's favorable for the Raiders. Raiders offensive line isn't a disaster. Maybe he goes out there, gets 12, 14 carries, certainly has a shot to find the end zone. Just big question mark about how much he'll play on passing down.

[Dave]

Last one here. Dowdle or breeze?

[Adam]

Hall and McMillan is definitely worth a stash, possibly a start. I'll take Dowdle over Hall, even if hall is good to go.

[Dave]

All right. Hope you're good to go with those lineups for week 16 for Dave, I'm Adam. Have a great weekend, everybody. Talk to you on Sunday on ffp. Expression.