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FFT on CBSSN: Terry McLaurin signs new deal with Commanders + Bold Predictions! (08/25 Fantasy Football Podcast)
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- [00:00]
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- [01:43]
Jamie Eisenberg
Terry McLaurin got paid. We got bold predictions. We got fantasy nuggets for you. It's busy time. A lot of fantasy drafts going on. It's fantasy football today on CBS Sports Network. I'm Jamie Eisenberg. That's Dave Richard. Joining us is Dan Schneier and we are presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook born in Vegas. So we had our podcast today, Dave, right as we were wrapping up our fantasy football tape podcast. Please download that wherever podcasts are found. You said you spoke it into existence. What if we wake up tomorrow morning and Terry McLaurin signs a new deal? How will you feel about his fantasy value? That was the question you posed to me when we said goodbye. We clicked the off button. It was us, not Heath Cummings. And sure enough, right away, we get the report. Terry McLaurin signs his three year $96 million extension.
- [02:25]
Dave Richard
So why do they mess with us like that?
- [02:26]
Jamie Eisenberg
You know they were listening to our show because everybody else does. How do you feel about Terry McLaurin now that he's locked in for the next three years after missing the entirety of preseason, all of the entire training camp, all the preseason games as a hold in. Is he back in your good graces as a top four round fantasy wide receiver?
- [02:43]
Dave Richard
He is. It's toward the end of round four. I'm good with him as a top four type of pick now because I expect him to be back at practice, I don't know today, tomorrow, as soon as the ink's dried on that contract, he's going to be out there and he's going to have a helmet and pads on and he's going to be working to get his timing down again. With Jaden Daniels, I think he's going to need more than two weeks before week one to really get it right. Let's give him a grace period of two weeks. So when you draft Terry McLaurin, assume the first two weeks of the season might not be peak Terry McLaurin, but after that there's a week three game they play against Las Vegas. That secondary isn't very good. I could see Terry McLaurin starting to kick things into high gear then, and this was a great stat that Josh Norris looked up and posted on social media and I piggybacked off it. 11 red zone touchdowns for Terry McLaurin in his first 80 games. 10 last year with Jayn Daniels, and seven of the 10 came in the back half of last year when Jayn Daniels was really finding himself as a thrower. His numbers in fantasy really, really lit up. I'm kind of excited about him now, but I don't want to reach for him and I'm afraid that's what's going to happen, Jamie, is that people are going to see this news and they're going to run to Terry McLaurin like nothing was ever wrong and they're going to take him in round three. And that feels just a little too rich for me.
- [03:56]
Jamie Eisenberg
Dan, when you look at the signing of McLaurin, as Dave alluded to last year, he was great. But what we saw last year was targets. Relatively the same catches, relatively the same yards, relatively the same spike in touchdowns as we see here. 13 touchdowns. There was no Debo Samuel. We'll see what changes now with the backfield without Brian Robinson there. Obviously expecting it better. Jaden Daniels could lead to better production. Terry McLaurin, but just your assessment of the commander's offense and where Terry McLaurin sort of fits in for you.
- [04:24]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, for me, he's not someone I'm rushing to draft and this is because I think he's one of the prime touchdown regression Candidates, as you mentioned. Now, I thought that stat was excellent, Dave, but one of my concerns is the addition you mentioned of Deebo Samuel. I've liked what I've seen from Deebo Samuel this preseason. I know he had that one clip going around early in training camp in the spring. People thought he might be out of shape. He looked pretty good on his first touch of the preseason and I think he's a perfect fit for that scheme. McLaurin, to me, is a player who will not get a heavy volume enough to justify what I think is a pretty high adp.
- [04:55]
Jamie Eisenberg
It's going to be interesting to see where his ADP goes because he's been kind of hovering in that round four or five ish range, as Dave said, we may see him get pushed back up into I think maybe the middle of round four. So when we're talking about wide receivers like Marvin Harrison, Jr. Garrett Wilson, Devonte Adams, you know, depending on where George Pickens goes, kind of those type of wide receivers, I'm just going to basically say I'm out on still. Terry McLaurin, I know this is great news, the fact that he got in still, you know, over a week plus before the start of the regular season. And I think you're right, it may take a couple of weeks and then hopefully he's back to being exactly where he was. But I think Dan said it best. We can. We're going to see some touchdown regression. Whether he goes from 13 to 10, that's still pretty good. If he goes from 13 to kind of that 5, 6 range, which is where he's been his entire career, then we could be in a little bit of trouble for Terry McLaurin. And I'll just go back to this very small sample size, small group of players, the hold ins, the holdouts from the last two seasons, all but Ja' Marr Chase. We're talking about Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor in 2023, CeeDee Lamb and Brandon Aiyuk last year. The other one is Chase. Chase was awesome, won the Triple Crown. Those other five guys, they all, excuse me, those four guys, they all struggled with their production and dealt with injuries the last two years. So we'll see what happens for them and we'll also see what happens for the San Francisco receiving Corps because we have a situation that we're still monitoring at this point with Juwan Jennings. So we have one report from the San Francisco Standard. This is just a reporter speculating based on what Kyle Shanahan's kind of said that we could be Looking at Juwan Jennings maybe opening the season on injured reserve. He's got this calf injury but also wanting a new contract. So how injured is he? Or is he still kind of just playing this out because of the contract situation? That's a conflicting report because ESPN's Adam Schefter, according to Shanahan says that Jennings could be ready for week one as they take on the Seahawks. So Dan, when you look at this, Ricky Piersall has just been flying up average draft position, flying up draft boards, Brandon Ayuk has been falling down draft boards and Jennings kind of stayed in the middle here with just kind of this uncertainty. So how do you assess Pearsall with maybe Jennings not starting the season or coming back? When Jennings does return, how are you going to value him? And what about Ayuk?
- [06:48]
Dan Schneier
I'm very high on Pearsall, but I worry that I'll never get him in drafts. I did two salary cap drafts this weekend, didn't have a chance at him. He went in pricing of a Tier 3 range and in snake drafts I see him getting, getting jumped for. And the issue with Pearsall is yes, he was a former first round pick but at some point this season Jennings is going to play and at some point Ayuka is going to play. So I feel like the ADP for Pearsall and maybe it's not the adp, but maybe just the draft buzz for Pearsall has maybe exceeded the upside or it's kind of reached the ceiling of what he can be. I'm still targeting Jennings because at this point you can get him super late. And with that report I'm sure that adp, you know, it's going to fall even further. I feel like Ayuka is also a pretty good bet, especially in leagues where you can place him on your IR and free up a roster spot.
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Dave Richard
The problem though is if you draft Jennings or if you draft Ayuk, it's easy to stash Ayuk in the injury spot like Dan said. But you've gotta make sure that you have that in your league first and foremost. With Jennings, we don't know when he's gonna play and I love the value on him. That's round 10. I'm looking at ADP right now. He's one of the biggest fallers in ADP on CBSsports.com and so I think that there's a real opportunity cost here. That's great for Juwan Jennings, but I love the talent of Ricky Piersall. We saw it late last season three games when he had at least 25 routes run, he averaged over 18 PPR points per game. That's outstanding. That means that no matter where you're drafting Ricky Pearsall, he's a bargain if he's going to deliver that. And if Jennings isn't ready to begin the year, that's a great pathway for Pearsall to get rolling with seven, eight targets per game. That's rare to see that from a 49ers wide receiver, but he and Kil are going to dominate targets in that offense and I think he'll do really well with them. I'm excited about Pierce.
- [08:19]
Jamie Eisenberg
Hall could get you off to a great start, you know, depending on how long Jennings is out or takes some time to ramp up. And then clearly IUK as according to Shanahan earlier this offseason, saying that he may not be ready until week six. So something to keep an eye on there as we get through some cuts and roster movement over the next several days. We also had the trade last week of the 49ers acquiring Brian Robinson Jr. And then Shanahan coming out this weekend and saying, quote, we brought him here to be our number two back. So, Dave, when the trade first happened, you said it could still be Garendo as that number two guy, but it appears as if the 49ers are all in on Brian Robinson. When are you targeting Robinson as now the new handcuff for Christian McCaffrey, who as we know only played four games last season.
- [08:55]
Dave Richard
Well, this is the biggest faller in ADP on CBS Sports. You can now get him in round 10, and I think that that's a fair price to pay for a guy that would see a lot of work in a really good offense for running backs if something were to happen to Christian McCaffrey. The thing is, right now McCaffrey's healthy, should be good to go. Hopefully. We don't really see Brian Robinson play that much, but yes, he is the handcuff he should be taking in round 10.
- [09:18]
Jamie Eisenberg
Dan, we got a lot of questions about is this an impact on McCaffrey? How's this going to work, you know, knowing that this guy's got a lot bigger then a Garando or Jordan James or the other guys that were there. Do you have any concern about Christian McCaffrey and his fantasy value?
- [09:32]
Dan Schneier
No concern about McCaffrey, who's been in my top three all off season. But I will say this. When we were looking at the 49ers situation before the trade, there was not really anyone healthy behind McCaffrey. So it felt like it could be a Barkley level, you know, volume and touches situation. I think that, that Robinson will cut into his workload a little bit, but McCaffrey has never been a player who relies on that. He relies on passing game targets and touchdowns.
- [09:57]
Dave Richard
Yeah.
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Jamie Eisenberg
And hopefully Robinson doesn't take those touchdowns, but it'd be very surprising if that was the case. So feel very comfortable and confident saying draft McCaffrey in round one and hopefully we don't have any injury situations to worry about throughout the course of the season. We do have an injury in Miami that we're keeping an eye on. That's Devon HN. So Mike McDaniel making people feel a little bit better if you're drafting that. As of now, there's no setbacks for Achan and he expects him to practice prior to week one. Whether he's going to be ready for week one, that remains to be seen. We've seen Ali Gordon, another guy, big time riser in average draft position, flying up draft board. Somebody that I think people are looking for as early as round nine, Round ten. Dan, how are you approaching the Dolphins backfield right now? HN was a round one pick for us a couple weeks ago. Then he suffers his calf injury. Now he's fallen into round two.
- [10:36]
Dan Schneier
I'm avoiding hn. I think, you know, Scott Pianowski of Yahoo Sports said it best. Injuries will find you in your fantasy season. Don't go drafting the guys already injured. And that's unfortunately where we're at with hn. He's had injuries in the past. The player I'm targeting is Ollie Gordon. Ali Gordon was a pre draft favorite of mine, not the typical player I like, but when you watched his film, especially his 2023 tape, and I somewhat throw out his 2024 tape because Oklahoma State's defense was so bad. They were never playing with any kind of decent game script. But if you put on 2023 tape, he reminded me a lot of DeMarco Murray. High runner but really good at creating space before contact. And I just think he's a different kind of back for the Dolphins. And Mike McDaniel has done some wacky things these past two years and he's found a way to create crazy production for players like John who Smith. I think he could find a role for Gordon in his offense that's different than you would find for a player like Jalen Wright. So he's a player I like at.
- [11:25]
Jamie Eisenberg
My drafts two years ago. Raheem Mostert, nobody expected to Led the NFL in rushing touchdowns last year. Devon. Yeah, Devon Hn led all running backs in reception, so he's gotten great production from this backfield. And Ollie Gordon, one of three running backs in the last two seasons to get over 2,000 total yards in college. The other two being Ashton Gente and Cam Scatterboo. So nice resume there for Ollie Gordon, who did struggle in 2024 by comparison to 2023. Dave Chargers GM Joe Hortense. Ortiz. Ortiz. Ortiz said that he's hopeful Najee Harris can play in Week one. Now, I don't think it's going to necessarily dramatically change Najee Harris's draft stock, but it could change Omarion Hampton's draft stock, who you said you may consider taking in round two. If Najee plays in Week one, would you still take Hampton around two?
- [12:09]
Dave Richard
Yeah, I would because I'm banking long term on talent. And I think the opportunity will be huge for Omarion Hampton in the Chargers offense that wants to run the football. Remember last year how we were all so nervous about Justin Urban and it played out in like the first third of the year? Well, they couldn't really run the football that well, especially after J.K. dobbins got hurt. They had nothing left. So what did the Chargers do this offseason? First they got Najee Harris, then they drafted Amarne Hampton, and then Najee had an accident on July 4, Hampton went to training camp. He was the clear lead running back from the second training camp started and he hasn't let up since. The reports have been great. He's looked good in preseason games. I think we're going to see Omarion Hampton have the type of workload that maybe even Ashton Genty will get. When we're talking about a rookie running back getting a ton of carries, catches, he should have a lot of high value numbers there. And we know that Najee isn't an efficient running back to begin with. So I would prefer. Of course, of course I'm going to prefer to get Amarian Hampton in round three. His ADP on CBS right now is in early round four. If I had to take him in late round two, would I do it? I would because I do believe in the talent and the opportunity that he'll have in this Chargers offense.
- [13:12]
Jamie Eisenberg
Lots of upside, you know, hopefully he can live up to the hype we've seen. You know, sometimes these rookies get sort of stunted by these veterans and, you know, Najee Harris, for what it's worth, it's just, you know, kind of ironic. He goes his entire first four years of his career without an injury. Before he gets to the first game for the Chargers, he's already dealing with an injury so hopefully he's okay and is more of a handcuff though for Hampton. For anybody who is drafting or planning to draft Hampton late round two or early round three, Dan, we have another injury. Last one to talk about here and that's Jaden Blue suffering a low ankle sprain on According to espn in the game against the Falcons over the weekend in their final preseason outing, Blue has kind of been a guy that I think a lot of fantasy managers looking at and saying maybe he could take over the Cowboys backfield at some point. But still Javante Williams is going to be most likely the starter. Just give me your take on the Cowboys backfield. And are you still trying to target Blue in drafts despite this injury?
- [14:01]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, just a rough first offseason for Blue. He before this injury was dealing with a heel injury that sidelined him throughout a lot of training camp. Hasn't gotten the reps to make an impact now, but I think he will make an impact in the second half of the season. So I am still drafting Blue. He was one of my preseason favorites. Love his speed, love his ability in the passing game. I feel like he can give the Cowboys the impact a player like Tony Pollard has given them in previous seasons down the stretch run. But he's going to be a guy that you should really only draft if you have deep benches and place to stash him. If you're in a short bench league. I would not draft Jaden Blue.
- [14:32]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, and Javante is going to be somebody I think that can help you in the beginning part of the season. You know, maybe as a low end flex, you know, maybe an RB2 if you're in a deeper league, but not somebody you want to rely on for the majority of the Cowboys offensive line could be a mess and we expect them to throw the ball a lot. Plus, as Dan just alluded to, we could see Jaden Bleu playing a big role maybe as the season goes on, especially once his heel and his ankle are healthy. All right, we're going to take a break right now on Fantasy Football today when we come back and again into Dave's bold predictions. Going to tell you why Breece hall maybe not at the start of the season, could be great by the end of the season. You don't want to miss this next on fft.
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- [15:44]
Jamie Eisenberg
Dsw.Com welcome back to Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM, the sportsbook. Born in Vegas, I'm Jamie. That's Dave, that's Dan. And it's time to get bold. And you have a Fantasy Football hall of Famer here giving you bold predictions for the 2025 campaign. All right, Dave, here we go.
- [16:02]
Dave Richard
I always laugh at that. Like there isn't, like an actual hall of Fame for fantasy. I don't even know how.
- [16:08]
Jamie Eisenberg
Is that your jersey right there hanging up?
- [16:10]
Dave Richard
No, no, I think, you know, never mind.
- [16:12]
Jamie Eisenberg
Go ahead. All right, bold prediction number one from Dave. Richard, Breeze hall and Tyree Kill will have great per game averages after they get traded.
- [16:21]
Dave Richard
Yeah, these are supposed to be fun, right? You don't need to have boring, bold predictions. So let's have a little fun. Breeze hall and Tyreek Hill are two guys that fantasy managers tend to gravitate toward because of their names. And we've had great success from them before. We know that Breece hall is going to be sharing with two other running backs and one other quarterback in New York, and he even admitted that he wasn't their guy, the coaching staff's guy. So maybe they move him at some point this season, and when they do, he'll land with a team that will want to utilize him for his strengths. Tyreek Hill is almost the exact same thing. I wonder if he's kind of falling out of favor with tua. I know the Dolphins need him if they want to have a really good offense. He didn't practice against Jacksonville in their joint practice. He didn't play in the preseason. I think he's healthy. So I don't know what's going on there, but it makes me nervous to draft both of these guys. In fact, I wouldn't look at either one of them until round four at the absolute earliest. And that might be a mistake when it comes to Tyreek Hill, but I don't think it's that big of a mistake for Breece Hall. But when they change teams, they could end up in much better situations, much better offenses, certainly much better quarterback in the case of Tyreek Hill. And you can see their numbers pop.
- [17:25]
Dan Schneier
I'm with Dave mostly on this. I've avoided Breece hall though in most drafts despite the potential for a second half season boom. I don't you don't typically see a lot of running back trades at the deadline. Hill seems like more likely to get traded which actually would hurt his fantasy value. I've been drafting some of because he keeps falling, but I think he kind of needs to be in that scheme in that offense with the rapport down with two. I think if he changes systems it's a very complicated thing for a receiver to do mid season.
- [17:50]
Jamie Eisenberg
The only place I could see his numbers really going up would be is a Rashi Rice suspension lasts for a significant amount of time and the Chiefs are like all right, you can get Tyreek cheap. Maybe the Dolphins pick up some of the contract draft capital. Not so much. He steps into Dan's point he doesn't have to learn the system because he knows that at least the majority of it. That's where one I could see. But it could be a little tough to see their numbers get better in their current situation.
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Dave Richard
I think any type of offense that's like the Dolphins offense and there are spawns of it all over the league would love to have Tyreek Hill bowl.
- [18:23]
Jamie Eisenberg
Prediction number two and this ties into the guy that just got paid today. So Terry McLaurin. Terry McLaurin finishes as a top 12 wide receiver from Halloween through New Year's. And just to put the asterisk on it, you did give this bold prediction prior to the news of McLaurin signing. So and it's really changed.
- [18:38]
Dave Richard
In fact, I should feel a little bit better about McLaurin now that we know that he's officially signed on the dotted line and he should be impactful for most of the year with the Commanders. But I could see Washington really trying to get hot in the second half of the year. The first half they try and figure out their run game. This is a team that could trade for Breece hall if Bill Crosky Merritt can't get it done if Austin Eckler falls prey to Father Time and that means that they are going to throw the ball a lot more. And I think McLaurin can finish strong just as he did last year for the Commanders.
- [19:08]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, we touched on this earlier. I just have a little bit of concerns with McLaurin. I have concerns about this offense potentially taking a step back. We've seen in past years Cliff Kingsbury's offensive scheme been figured out in Arizona. Now this is a new version of Kingsbury. He went across the world to kind of refined himself and it was excellent in year one. But there are still concerns I have on that offensive line that I thought overperformed last season. And Debo, I really think Debo will be a huge part of this offense. So McLaurin is just a player who I just. I can't get. I can't grasp where the volume is coming from. And I think the touchdown numbers will have to be high for him to really return value.
- [19:41]
Jamie Eisenberg
It would be probably timeline wise. Makes sense that, you know, middle to the end of October he starts to get his legs underneath him, starts to look like the guy he was. I don't know if you want to ride it out or maybe trade him right before your trade deadline just because who knows how the end of season will go. You know, Depending on how McLaurin looks in the beginning part of the year, could be a trade chip for you if he does start to get hot, particularly toward the end of October. All right, this one I know you love Tyler Warren the bold prediction Tyler Warren leads the Colts in targets, catches, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, hot dogs, eaten everything the Colts autographs could potentially do. Tyler Warren's going to lead them in all categories.
- [20:13]
Dave Richard
Yeah, I think that there's actually a decent chance of this happening. I don't know if that means that it's not as bold of a prediction, but I love the talent. I think he's going to be utilized to his strengths. It would make sense for them to do that. Although I don't know if everything that the Colts are doing these days necessarily makes sense. But what they really needed was somebody to open up the middle of the field and somebody to take some pressure off of everybody else in this offense, and I think Warren gives them that. And we saw him make plays not just inside of 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, but down the field. 20 plus yard plays in the preseason and he's going to be tough for defenses to cover. And I actually think it helps him that Daniel Jones is the quarterback because he's just got a little bit of a better arm than Anthony Richardson does at this point. So I'm a big fan of Warren. I'm getting him in round eight in every league I'm in.
- [21:00]
Dan Schneier
And I absolutely love this take by Dave. If I'm not mistaken, Warren has played every single snap of the first team this preseason. That, to me, stands out. Ultimately. I don't think you have to do much to lead the Colts in receiving touchdowns with Daniel Jones at quarterback. He's had one season over 20 passing touchdowns, so that might cap his upside to some extent. But like Dave said, you still can get him in Round eight where he could be a massive value there even if he only has five or six touchdowns.
- [21:25]
Jamie Eisenberg
And Josh Downs still dealing with a hamstring injury. Michael Pittman battled a back injury last year. Either of those guys missing time just makes it that much more attractive for Tyler Warren to step in and be the guy that the Colts need. I do think we're going to need Anthony Richardson at some point. I would take Anthony Richardson arm over Daniel Jones. You said Jones had a better arm. I think accuracy. Daniel Jones has much accuracy. Okay, that's fair than Anthony Richardson.
- [21:45]
Dave Richard
Well, if I'm a pass catcher, especially one that's not going to be used a ton deep down the field, I.
- [21:50]
Jamie Eisenberg
Want the accurate arm next ball Prediction Dan's going to love this one Jackson Dart becomes a top 12 fantasy quarterback Caleb Williams does not. So if you just take a look at Dan's background, he's got a bunch of giant magnets on his refrigerator, including what is supposed to be their record, which is 0 and 0 right now. So maybe Jackson Dart comes in and the Giants take off from there.
- [22:12]
Dave Richard
I think he's their best quarterback right now. Now, I'm not obviously in charge of the Giants, otherwise I'd be somewhere else right now and probably with a shaved head and more money in my wallet. But I do think that Jackson Dart has acquitted himself well in the preseason and in training camp, showing a lot of what I saw on film from him at Ole Miss, and I think he can really make this offense move. We know that he's done these great things in the preseason games. Without Malik Neighbors on the field, just imagine how effective he'd be. So I think there will come a time when Russell Wilson might cost the Giants a game or two and they make the pivot to Jackson Dart and he takes off the dart in his last name. By the way, that's for his legs. He's a running quarterback on top of a good thrower, so I think he could be actually excellent for fantasy. Caleb Williams was someone we were all very, very excited about before training camp started and then as training camp rolled on, the Bears have had some issues first with him, and he seems to have gotten a little bit better on simple things like getting the ball out quick and handling the quarterback center exchange. The offensive line is a real problem and I think he's going to get flustered easily by the pressure that defense has put on him starting Week one against the Vikings.
- [23:15]
Jamie Eisenberg
So just one answer Is this one word answer? Is this a pro Dart bold prediction or an anti Williams Bold prediction?
- [23:21]
Dave Richard
Yes.
- [23:22]
Jamie Eisenberg
There you go. Dan Jackson Dart. Are you drafting him as a backup quarterback in redraft leagues in super flex.
- [23:28]
Dan Schneier
And two quarterback formats?
- [23:30]
Dave Richard
Sure.
- [23:30]
Dan Schneier
I think the most important takeaway from the preseason is the Giants offense changed with Darton versus Russell and it's nothing like they ran with Jones or Russ. It was up tempo, a lot of hurry up, a lot of spread, a lot of easy routes on the outside, RPOs and design runs for Dart. That's all good things for fantasy football purposes. And we've already seen Dable coax out a really strong fantasy season out of Daniel Jones in 2022. He can't even hold. You know I Jackson Dart is a much more talented quarterback there so I could see it happening.
- [23:56]
Dave Richard
You want an impromptu bold prediction? Giants make the playoffs.
- [23:59]
Jamie Eisenberg
There you go. Well wow.
- [24:01]
Dan Schneier
With that schedule.
- [24:02]
Dave Richard
Make the playoffs. You heard it here first.
- [24:04]
Jamie Eisenberg
Those magnets will be moving quite a bit. Last ball predicts for you Dave and then we'll take a break and go to Dan's bowl predictions. Bowl prediction number five, Rashi Rice is a bust because his suspension is longer than anticipated, but Xavier Worthy finishes as a top 15 wide receiver.
- [24:19]
Dave Richard
Everybody's drafting Worthy ahead of Rasheed Rice right now anyway. But some people think Rasheed Rice is only going to be suspended for four games or six. Six games. I think the NFL tries to come down hard on him. I'm worried that it's going to come at a point in the fantasy season where fantasy managers are going to want this guy available on their teams to start and instead he's sitting on the bench for longer than they had hoped for and that makes him a disappointment. Whereas Worthy rather still has that great speed. The Chiefs have talked all offseason about trying to attack downfield. Worthy will allow them to do exactly that and I think Worthy will be great for fantasy.
- [24:50]
Jamie Eisenberg
Dan, you buying this one that Rice will be a bust and Worthy will be top 15?
- [24:55]
Dan Schneier
Not that rice will be a bust, but I am buying worthy as top 15 and the player you want to target in that Chiefs wide receiver core. I think with Worthy a lot of this situation was last year was learning a difficult offense with Andy Reid. Once he got acclimated to it, we saw his role expand a little bit in the second half and that will continue for him. I think.
- [25:11]
Jamie Eisenberg
I'm just so curious. When both are active first four games of the season, then whatever happens with Rice after that how good will Worthy be? Because everything Worthy did last year was without Rice on the field. And if you just watch the preseason, Mahomes and Rice are locked in. I mean they are good to go right now. So those first four games, I don't think Rice will be a bust season long. Obviously depends on how long he's going to miss. But those first four games could be amazing for Rice, maybe a little bit of a disappointment for Worthy and then we'll see what happens moving forward from there. But as Dave told you, we'll see what happens with the length of suspension for Rice. What will that be for his value and for Worthy's value as well. Alright, we're take a break right now. We come back, it's Dan's turn give you some bold predictions. How much he likes James Cook, how much he likes Trevor Lawrence. That's next on fft.
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- [27:04]
Jamie Eisenberg
Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM. I'm Jamie, that's Dave. And that is two time draft a thon tennis champion Dan Schneider.
- [27:14]
Dave Richard
Oh wow.
- [27:14]
Jamie Eisenberg
Under the spotlight for his bold predictions for 2025. So Dan, Mr. Tennis, let's start with James Cook. You have James Cook bold prediction, will finish as a top 10 fantasy running back.
- [27:27]
Dan Schneier
Yeah. Being drafted way outside of it and I've done a bunch of salary cap drafts. He hasn't been drafted. He hasn't been bid on much at all. But what I see with James Cook is an elite player who has a 4.9 career yards per carry average. He also has in my mind elite spe, the elite vision. And he's playing behind an elite offense with an elite offensive line. They were Seventh best the Bills last season in yards before contact at 2.39. That's the bills offensive line returning all players there. And James Cook, he was tied for fifth best enforcement's tackle rate with Bijon Robinson in third best in yards per carry on man gap runs at 5.25 yards per carry. And if you see the progression of his career with Ken Dorsey versus now what? He has Joe Brady at offense coordinator. It's night and day. He has 83 red zone carries versus just 29 with his former co coordinator. 17 touches per game, that's up from nine. He's become a focal point of this offense. And when I watch James Cook on film, this is what I really come back to. It does remind me of one player. It's Dalvin Tomlinson. I'm sorry, not dumb. Slip up, little giant slip up there. It's Dalvin Cook, his brother. They have that unique ability to just create yards before contact with their vision and their ability to kind of cut at any point and house a run. So I understand people are scared that 40% of his production came from touchdowns last season, but I don't think he needs his touchdown count to get into the top 10.
- [28:47]
Dave Richard
I think there's a greater chance of him increasing his total yardage than there is of him seeing a major decrease in touchdowns. And the 18 touchdowns is crazy. But he could still get to 12 or 13 and still work his way up to 1400, 1500 yards and maybe sprinkle on a couple of extra catches on top of that and be worth, I mean, certainly worth a round three pick, which is where we really see him going, but a round two pick as well. This is the offense that you want to pick players from that are going to go off, and James Cook clearly one of them.
- [29:16]
Jamie Eisenberg
And I think to be fair, based on sort of where his average opposition has settled at this point, he's not so far outside the top 10. I'm not questioning your bold prediction call because I think people sort of get to that number of where Bucky Irving, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Chase Brown is, Kyron Williams is kind of just say, okay, that's where the tear break becomes, you know, so that's basically the 12th, you know, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th running backs in average application kind of just then Cook is in that next group with, with Omarion Hampton and Alvin Kamara and maybe Treveon Henderson, you know, those group of guys. Cook can easily get back to that level of production if the touchdowns stay in the range that kind of Dave put them in but yeah, it's a very strong call for a lot of people that were running the opposite direction from James Cook. Trevor Lawrence, your next bowl prediction. Trevor Lawrence will finish as a top six, top six quarterback. Wow. Tell us why.
- [30:04]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, walk with me on this one a little bit. Liam Cohen arrives at Kentucky, takes a prospect, Will Levis, turns him into quarterback. It turns him into consideration for a first round pick in the NFL draft. I think we've all kind of seen what Will Levis is at the NFL level. Then he goes to Tampa. He arrives and he has Baker Mayfield and he. And he coaxes out a career year, 4, 500 passing yards, 41 touchdowns. Cohen understands how to scheme open space and he understands the value of solving problems in the passing game by getting his playmakers the ball in two ways. One in space, space in both the run game and the screen game and two on those in breakers. He really leaned on that with Mike Evans last year. And Brian Thomas was best receivers from an efficiency standpoint on in breaking routes, slants in breakers, deep overs over the middle. This is something we saw in his LSU tape. Wasn't used that often last season in the Jacksonville offense. He's going to eat on those this year. And then getting the ball in space to Hunter and those three running backs who I all think are really talented in space. Tutin, Bigsby and etn. It's going to open up these vertical shots in the passing game, one on one situations. So this is a bet a lot on the coach here, but we've bet on coaches before and they've paid it off in fantasy football. And there is still that number one overall pick talent with Trevor Lawrence. Think he still has the arm talent. He just has to be better and quicker at solving problems in his mind. I think Cohen's the guy to do that for him. And we're drafting a lot of these other quarterbacks with two elite receivers. And I do believe Hunter will be immediately an elite receiver in the NFL based on his college tape, much higher than Trevor Lawrence. So I'm all in on this offense. Maybe not 4, 540 passing hours and 41 TDS. Baker was finished as what you probably know this. Baker finished last year quarterback top three, but. But just a little outside that, settling in the top six for me.
- [31:42]
Dave Richard
So the bad news is, and Dan touched on this a little bit like Trevor's never really shown us this as a quarterback. Some flashes, yeah, but not consistency. And even in a joint practice that I went to against the Dolphins, he was off target a little bit Had a couple of ugly interceptions. Those are the types of things that hold me back. The good news is you don't have to draft him like a top six quarterback. In fact, you can draft him to be your second quarterback. You can do it in round 12 and round 13. And if you don't like what you see after the first few weeks of the season, you dump them. You go find another quarterback or somebody at a different position off the waiver wire and it's no harm, no foul. There is gobs of upside here because of Cohen, who I agree, very, very sharp play caller and also the two receivers that he throws to.
- [32:23]
Jamie Eisenberg
I think the one thing that kind of goes unsaid with Trevor Lawrence is his running ability. He's got two seasons on his resume with at least 330 rushing yards and what we see from Baker last year, a huge spike in his rushing potential. And I think that's something that we'll see from Trevor Lawrence if he can get to north of 400 rushing yards, maybe close to five. We could be talking about an easy top six quarterback here if he stays healthy and leans on his pass catchers and does well in this offense. A pass catcher that you're not so fond of at that is Garrett Wilson. And your bold prediction here is Garrett Wilson finishes outside the top 25 at wide receiver. Why?
- [32:55]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, with Wilson last year he finished as a top 10 wide receiver overall, but he was just wide receiver 17 in points per game in PPR and wide receiver 30 in points per route. But he ran the most routes of any wide receiver in the NFL. Or sorry, he had the highest snap share and he was top three in routes of any wide receiver in the NFL. Now he gets out of that Rodgers led Hackett system that was very pass heavy and he goes to this Aaron Glenn led team that really seems to be leaning toward the run game. In addition to that, he loses Aaron Rodgers, who wasn't the best quarterback in the NFL, but he gets Justin Fields, who really may not be somebody who we can rely on for more than 200 yards passing a game and 15 to 18 passing touchdowns. So it's really difficult for me to see where the production is coming from. I assume that the targets will come down, the overall volume will come down massively in this offense. He's also running a system that's not so great for him with this quarterback. And then lastly, the touchdowns aren't going to be there. So where are the fantasy points coming from? And are we just drafting Garrett Wilson based on where he finished overall last season, not even on a per route or a per game basis.
- [34:00]
Jamie Eisenberg
I want to kind of tie in your next bowl prediction in the last. Dave, about these two guys collectively, because you have G. You have George Pickens finishing as a top 12 wide receiver. So obviously you're going to take Pickens over Wilson. Dave, who would you draft first? Would you be drafting Garrett Wilson at this point or George Pickens?
- [34:14]
Dave Richard
What's the format? If it's. If it's full ppr, I think I would just have to lean toward Garrett Wilson. But it is with reluctance because there's been so much hype about George Pickens and we know that that's a Dallas offense. Hey, they've got a great thrower in Dak Prescott. You could see Dak Prescott and we have seen Dak Prescott support two wide receivers before in fantasy football. So I think that there could be a little bit more upside for Pickens, especially if it's half or non ppr, because I think he'll make more explosive plays. He'll have more of those opportunities. Dan's right. This jets offense, it's going to be run heavy. And when it does get forced into being pass heavy, I don't know if Justin Fields is the right guy for that. I think we're drafting Garrett Wilson because last year he averaged over nine targets per game.
- [34:55]
Dan Schneier
Game.
- [34:56]
Dave Richard
I don't think there's a chance he sees anywhere near nine targets per game this year.
- [34:59]
Jamie Eisenberg
Right. Dan, your thoughts on Pickens?
- [35:02]
Dan Schneier
Yeah. So Pickens is one of my three flag plant players. It was Cook Pickens, and we'll get to the last one next. And I think he will finish as a top 12 because he's finally met his perfect match. And it's Dak Prescott. Dak Prescott's ability to anticipate and throw with accuracy allows players like George Pickens to win on the outside one on one. And that's something we saw when he had Michael Gallup early in his career. But. But Pickens is a much better player. He's steadily improved. And I'll shout out Matt Harmon's reception perception in all metrics as a receiver since he entered the NFL. He always could beat press man on the outside, but now he's become this excellent winner on the in breakers. The quick slants, the quick ins, and a lot of that has to do with what he's been able to do after the catch. He forced 10 missed tackles in the open field last season with the Steelers. That was just one fewer than Justin Jefferson. There's really nothing about his Game I don't like. People could say the deep speed, but his ability to release clean off the line of scrimmage and stack vertically in the vertical passing game, Stack DBs vertically allows him to win there too. So Dak Prescott is just the perfect quarterback fit for him. I think he's going to allow him to unlock his ability on those in breaking routes in the middle of the field and he could take those after the catch for extra yards. He had eight touchdowns his freshman year at Georgia. Hasn't had a lot of touchdowns in the NFL because the Steelers have been bottom three in passing TDs since he got on that team. I think we could be looking at a totally different situation in Dallas with their defensive issues and their run game issues. We could be looking at a lot of shootouts, a lot of volume and I think he's going to get to double digit touchdowns.
- [36:24]
Jamie Eisenberg
He was the focal point of the passing game in Pittsburgh last year, but the first four games, for four of the first six games with Russell Wilson last year he was 16 PPR points or better. Then he got hurt. Did not finish that strong. But when he had a veteran quarterback, a guy that would give him some opportunities to win, he was clearly producing at a high level. Again sharing the field with CD Lamb. Don't forget about Jake Ferguson, but could be a great situation for George Pickens this year. All right Dan, last bowl prediction for you. Dave likes run rookie tight end. You like another one. Colston Loveland finishes as a top six tight end for you. That's the bowl prediction.
- [36:55]
Dan Schneier
Yeah to be fair I also do love Warren but I like Loveland more. And the 2024 Lions under Ben Johnson scored more fantasy points on play action dropbacks and it's a shout out to Jacob Gibbs from beyond the box score. You can check out our show there on CBS Sports and the YouTube page. But this is his stat on play action dropbacks. He Ben Johnson's offense scored more fantasy points than any team in the last eight years and play action in motion have been cheat codes for fantasy from an efficiency standpoint for NFL coordinators and no one has better done a better job scheming those opportunities up in play action game than Ben Johnson. Last year sand laporter ranked 8th most fantasy points in PPR on play action passes. Before that Brock Wright averaged over three PPR play points on play action passes. Enter colson Loveland, the 10th overall pick and an all 22 film junkie like myself's hero. Loveland separated all three levels on tape. He made plays extending away from his frame and more importantly for me, he showed the ability to take crossers and routes that break over the middle of the field for yards after the catch. Everyone is asking who Ben Johnson's Amman, Ross St. Brown will be in this offense. I still think Loveland has the skill sets that best fits that role of anyone on the Bears roster, including Luther Burden who's not really running with the first team. So I think that this is a breakout season immediately for Loveland and he's somebody I've just drafted in almost every league.
- [38:11]
Dave Richard
I don't hate the call and this is just like the Trevor Lawrence one where you don't have to draft Colson Loveland as the sixth tight end off the board. You can draft him as the 10th or 11th, but there are definitely a lot of mouths to feed in this Bears offense. Between DJ Moore, Romo Dunesay and even Cole Comet, they're going to play a lot of two tight end formations. It doesn't mean that both tight ends are going to be used the same way. When I saw them practice, everybody was lining up everywhere. It was really really hard to get a beat on what any one guy was doing. But to Dan's point there was one play where Caleb Williams hit Colson Loveland on an end breaker in stride and Loveland turned it into a 20 point play against the or 20 yard play. I should say hard to have a 20 point play in the NFL. A 20 yard play against the Bills first team defense. Now it's practice. Take it for what you will. But I do think that there is plenty of upside with Colson Loveland. I'm just worried about how much volume he will get from week to week that will make him a reliable fantasy starter.
- [39:02]
Jamie Eisenberg
I think in the case of both of your tight end bold predictions there's got to be some uncertainty built in because you know it is rookie tight ends, we don't typically see them play like Brock Bowers and I think hopefully people don't have those expectations for those guys to be Brock Bowers. I just think in the case of Warren vs. Loveland you're starting to see a path to success from a target volume standpoint, whereas Loveland may have to show that. So Dan's point about him being maybe the Amon Ross St. Brown, maybe a combination of Amon Ross St. Brown and Sam Laporta who clearly was a big factor in Ben Johnson's offense that might take a little bit of time to unfold but clearly there's so much upside with both of these guys, it takes. It makes it easy when you get to, you know, the greater late taking one of these tight ends. Later, pair them with a Zach Ertz or Jake Ferguson.
- [39:42]
Dave Richard
Both of these.
- [39:43]
Jamie Eisenberg
Take both. I don't know if you want to go that route just because the floor might be a problem. The ceiling could be immense, but it depends on how much you like to just go I'm playing to win or I'm playing to finish last in my league and there is no in between. Hopefully you will find some options on the waiver wire if needed. Alright, we'll take a break. When we come back and get into my bowl predictions here, I'll tell you why I think Justin Fields is going to be great on the ground once again and maybe why there's going to be 10 awesome rookie running backs in.
- [40:07]
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- [40:51]
Jamie Eisenberg
Welcome back to Fantasy Football Today presented by BetMGM. I'm Jamie. That's Dave, that's Dan. It's time for my bold predictions and I'm gonna start with one that maybe feels not as bold when you think about it, but it feels like the hate for Justin Fields is just starting to mount up a little bit because of why he stinks as a passer and we're forgetting why he's great as a fantasy asset and that's because of his legs. Justin Fields will lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards. He's one of three quarterbacks with 1,000 yards rushing on his resume. He is number three in yards per game for rushing quarterbacks all time. I don't care if he stinks as a passer. He's going to run for 900 plus yards and he's going to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback. I know Dave, you're starting to push back against Fields being a good fantasy quarterback. This is why he's going to be good is because he's going to run.
- [41:34]
Dave Richard
Yeah, but if he doesn't win games, I don't know how long he'll be under center for the jets it doesn't even matter because the new coach isn't going to tolerate it. More importantly, he's had a hard time staying healthy and now you're going to count on running all over the place. I get it. To draft him late, make him your starter to begin the season. If something happens to him, man, he's easy to replace. I wouldn't reach for him though. And I like a lot of other quarterbacks better, including Drake May, including Jared Goff. Those are two quarterbacks I would happily take ahead of Justin.
- [42:01]
Jamie Eisenberg
I understand that sentiment. But he is going to go for maybe 1,000 yards rushing and you don't get that at that position. If he goes for 1,000 and 3,000, he's going to be a top, potentially sixth quarterback. I mean he was averaging over 24 fantasy points per game last year in the final four starts for the Steelers next bowl. Prediction I got Dan, I'm going to come to you after I, I say this one which is Jordan Mason, Zach Charbonnet and Braylon Allen will be the best running backs on their team this year. So Mason better than Aaron Jones, Charbonnet better than Ken Walker. Allen better than Breeze Hall. Tell me why I'm wrong.
- [42:30]
Dan Schneier
I can't tell you why you're wrong on a lot of these. I like Mason over Jones. I like Sharbs over Walker with Braylon Allen and Bree. You know what, I'm with you on that too. I don't really see foresee Breeze and that one's going to be short scoring on both. On both accounts, I think. But yeah, I can't, I can't deny. Dave, do you have anything pushback on any of those?
- [42:48]
Dave Richard
I mean I like the value of Charbonnet better than Ken Walker, but if Ken Walker, speaking of staying healthy, if he can stay healthy, I would imagine he'll be far and away the best running back in Seattle.
- [42:57]
Jamie Eisenberg
And the bold prediction, you don't see it on the screen here but is they will be the best running backs on their teams without injury. So at some point during the season we see these guys take over.
- [43:05]
Dave Richard
I could see that really early for Mason.
- [43:07]
Jamie Eisenberg
It could happen for Braylon Allen too based on, you know, like you said, Breeze hall could get you look better this preseason. All right. Last bold prediction for me that we'll get to here is there's going to be be 10 rookie running backs. 10, 10 that finish in the top 30 in you got names points for a game? Of course I have names. Ashton, Genty, Amari Hampton, Treveon, Henderson, RJ Harvey, Jaquori, Krosky, Merritt.
- [43:29]
Dave Richard
Oh, good, they're keeping track.
- [43:29]
Jamie Eisenberg
Jaden Blue, Basil Tutin, Ollie Gordon, Dylan Sampson and Woody Marks. So the first ones, Woody Marks, the first ones are obvious. Gentee, Hampton, Henderson, Harvey, you can see that happening. You see the path right now for Bill. JCM easily could be the best running back there for the commanders. The next group is a little bit tougher to figure out how the path is going to unfold. But Jaden Blue could easily be the best guy there for the Cowboys as long as he stays healthy. We know Javonte Williams, not exactly the best Tutin. We could see a trade for the Jaguars. We also could see Tutin eventually take over a la Bucky Irving last year under Liam Cohen. Ollie Gordon could be the number two running back there for the Dolphins and could score a lot of touchdowns in tandem with Devon A. Chen, who's dealing with a calf injury. Dylan Sampson, we may not see Quinshon Judkins all season. And Sampson right now the starting running back for the Browns based on the last preseason game. And Dave, right before we started the show, you said no update on Joe Mixon according to Miko Ryan's. Well, we got Nick Chubb who's 100, and Damian Pierce, who knows where he's going to be. This could be Woody Marks by the end of the season. So I could see 10 guys maybe being the best running backs in their prospective backfields.
- [44:28]
Dave Richard
Let's talk about Tutin, Gordon, Sampson, three running backs that are absolutely worth a pick, Round nine or later. Sampson, you could probably win. Wait till around 12 to go.
- [44:38]
Jamie Eisenberg
Not anymore. Not after what we just saw.
- [44:40]
Dave Richard
He did look great and I think he could end up being the best Browns running back to begin the season. And then once Quinshot Judkins gets going, Judkins will take over. I like what I've seen from Ollie Gordon. I definitely like what I've seen from Bashel Tutin. And if the Jaguars trade Tank Bigsby, you're going to see Tootin's ADP go right up.
- [44:55]
Jamie Eisenberg
We love this rookie running back class. And 10 guys, 10 guys will be in the top 30 for PPR points per game this year. All right, we're going to take a break. When we come back and get to your questions here on Fantasy Football Today, it's Ask fft Next. Next. After the break.
- [45:18]
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- [45:51]
Jamie Eisenberg
Football Today presented by BetMGM. It's time for your questions. Let's go. Jason wants to know picking from the 105 in a 10 team 2 quarterback home league, half PPR league values the running back spot still. So Dave, who would you target at 105 elite quarterback or running back wide receiver? So two quarterbacks but would you take a running back first?
- [46:07]
Dave Richard
I would take one of the quarterbacks because you're getting one of the studs and it'll be potentially a top three stud if other people picking before you take a running back.
- [46:15]
Jamie Eisenberg
Especially in the 10 team league. The running backs in round two should be great. Next question. Dan drafted Hampton and Henderson on the same team. Am I crazy? So got Nico Collins Round 1, Puka Nukua, Round 2, Hampton in Round 3, Kittle Round 4, Amazing value on Henderson in Round 5, Emeka Abuca, Tony Pollard very concerned with Emeka Buka being wide receiver. 3. Where did I go wrong? I don't think he went wrong at all.
- [46:37]
Dave Richard
Yeah, yeah.
- [46:39]
Dan Schneier
There's no place you went wrong here. Your team looks stacked to me. I can't believe you were able to get Henderson that late.
- [46:44]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, way to brag. Thank you. We appreciate it.
- [46:46]
Dave Richard
Yeah, you went wrong sending the post.
- [46:48]
Jamie Eisenberg
Michael wants to know redraft league one keeper, have four guys close in. ADP King Henry, Christian McCaffrey, Nico Collins, Malik Nabors, who are you keeping, Dave? So of those four, who's your one keeper?
- [46:58]
Dave Richard
It's going to be Christian McCaffrey. One more year we will roll the dice to on CMC as a stud.
- [47:03]
Jamie Eisenberg
I'm surprised you didn't ask your question. If you keep them forever, you're obviously keeping neighbors. But yes, in the redraft league you're keeping McCaffrey. All right, Dan, Joe wants to know one keeper league have the first pick, Brian Thomas at 5.1. Brian Thomas in round five or Tuba Hubbard, round eight, who are you keeping?
- [47:18]
Dan Schneier
Brian Thomas, no doubter.
- [47:19]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I would agree. Value's too good in round five. More dub. Nope, we got this one already. So.
- [47:25]
Dave Richard
Yeah, this is the same question.
- [47:26]
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean this guy's just bragging all over the place here. So do we have any other questions? All right, we're out. So, Dub, we love your team. Congratulations. You're going to win your fantasy league. Make sure you check out Fantasy Football today. You can find us whatever podcasts are available. Download the QR code as well. Check us out on YouTube to find out all of our great information. Remember, the regular season is approaching, so we're going to help you dominate your drafts. We're also going to help you with the waiver wire moves you need, the start sits, all the things trade chart everything you need to dominate your fantasy league, the Fantasy Football Today podcast, whatever podcast. And don't forget Wednesday, 4 o' clock Eastern is our draft a thon from 4 to 7. We hope to continue to raise money for St. Jude, for Dan Schneier, for Dave Richard, for myself, for our great production staff. Thanks for watching and listening to Fantasy Football Today.
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Dan Schneier
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It's on the case. I like my outland theories with a.
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Dan Schneier
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