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Five Early Fantasy Favorites + Russell Wilson and Stefon Diggs Reactions (03/26 Fantasy Football Podcast)
01:11:22
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- [00:00]
Adam Azer
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- [01:59]
Jamie Eisenberg
Hundreds on car insurance by checking Allstate first. Like you know to check the Jumbotron first before attempting to eat a stack of supreme nachos in one bite. Now you're just a meme that everyone shares on game day.
- [02:11]
Adam Azer
Checking first is smart, so check Allstate.
- [02:13]
Jamie Eisenberg
First for a quote that could save you hundreds. You're in good hands with Allstate.
- [02:17]
Adam Azer
Savings vary subject to terms, conditions and Availability Allstate Fire and Casualty Insurance company and affiliates, Northbrook, Illinois.
- [02:24]
Dan Schneier
This is fantasy football today from CBS Sports.
- [02:27]
Jamie Eisenberg
What a play.
- [02:28]
Adam Azer
Can you believe this?
- [02:30]
Jamie Eisenberg
No, I can't. It's time to dominate your fantasy league.
- [02:34]
Adam Azer
Off to the races and he stays on his feet. This is going to go the distance.
- [02:39]
Jamie Eisenberg
Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath.
- [02:45]
Adam Azer
What's up everyone? Very excited for today's show. We got fancy Dan Schneier here. We got Jamie Eisenberg. I'm Adam Azer and welcome. This is a good show to watch on YouTube. YouTube.com fantasy football Today we welcome you to fantasy football today because today we're gonna do a little film review with some, with some screenshots, some still frames of new Giants quarterback Russell Wilson. Dad, I know Dan really wanted Jameis Winston and really did not want Russell Wilson. And now you got both.
- [03:13]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, look, in the end I view it as an insurance policy for the Giants. Neither were signed for too much, not a lot of guaranteed money. Both one year deal. Neither preclude the Giants from drafting a quarterback. And if they do, they can get rid of these guys next year or they can get rid of one of them, James Winston without much dead cap. So it is what it is. I wanted to see Winston let it fly. I wanted to see him sling it around the yard. I think Jamie said it best. We had five full days of excitement around what neighbors could be for fantasy with Jameis Winston. And it was very exciting to think about given what we saw with Jerry Judy. It really was. But you know, it's over. The Cam Ward dream I think is officially over with this decision by the Giants. I think they wouldn't do this if they thought they could get Cam Ward. And that's probably the most depressing part for me, Adam, because I, I really did fall in love with Ward during the pre draft process just watching his tape and it just reminds me of that Week 17 game against the Colts. And why, oh why did we play an injured Malik Neighbors who went off for two touchdowns?
- [04:09]
Adam Azer
You know what, I, I don't like that argument because you know, the Patriots won in week 18. The Patriots could have had the number one pick in the draft. They won in week 18.
- [04:17]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, they're idiots too.
- [04:18]
Adam Azer
Other team, quarterback. It doesn't matter. Other teams win. You got, you play to win the.
- [04:22]
Dan Schneier
Game, you play to win. Let me make it clear. I expect the players to play the win. They're playing for their livelihood. I expect the coach to coach a win. But I'm Just talking about the outcome, what happens after the fact. And after the fact, I did not want them to win that game.
- [04:34]
Adam Azer
Yeah, of course. All right. Russell Wilson, by the way, has produced a top 10 wide receiver in PPR only three times. The best finish overall, full season finish for a wide receiver was DK Metcalf in 2020 when he had 1300 yards and 10 touchdowns. He was the number five wide receiver overall and non PPR. Number six per game. Number seven. I know, I'm sorry. Number six in PPR full full season. Number seven per game and non number nine per game in full. That's the best wide receiver season that we've seen from Russell Wilson. Only twice have we seen a wide receiver have more than 83 catches with Russell Wilson. And the. The record for Russell Wilson wide receiver is about 100 catches. I want to say it was Tyler Lockett. Let's see if I can find that. Tyler Lockett had 100 catches on the nose. Doug Baldwin may have had like 102 one year. I don't know. But anyway, we'll get into that. Jamie, how you doing?
- [05:30]
Jamie Eisenberg
I'm doing great. Good quarterback situation for the Giants.
- [05:33]
Adam Azer
Hey, it's better than it was. We did a couple of debates on Monday show. Let's get Dan's side and I'll give you the Twitter results. I put them on Twitter. Just. We'll just wrap up Monday's show here. I'm on Ross St. Brown or Nico Collins in ppr.
- [05:49]
Dan Schneier
Nico, you are wrong.
- [05:52]
Adam Azer
You and I are wrong. It's. I'm on ross St. Brown. 70% not.
- [05:55]
Dan Schneier
Oh, I'm guessing what the people would say now.
- [05:57]
Adam Azer
Give me your take. But no, the people are against us. 70% Saint Brown, Drake London or A.J. brown.
- [06:03]
Dan Schneier
A.J. brown.
- [06:04]
Adam Azer
Yeah. 59% A.J. brown. Devonte Smith or Chris Olave?
- [06:12]
Dan Schneier
Devonte Smith.
- [06:13]
Adam Azer
63. Devonte Smith. Jamie, you were Olave, right?
- [06:17]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah.
- [06:17]
Adam Azer
Yeah, me too. And Dave was DeVonte. Marvin Harrison Jr. Or Jameson Williams.
- [06:23]
Dan Schneier
Oh, God. Jameson Williams.
- [06:28]
Adam Azer
This was the biggest blowout of all the Twitter polls. 82.6. Marvin Harrison Jr.
- [06:33]
Dan Schneier
I can see it. I just can't see it too at the same time.
- [06:37]
Adam Azer
Listen, we have a lot of emails coming in. Fantasy Football cbsi.com mailbag tomorrow with this crew. Me, Dan, Jamie. Yeah, you're pumped.
- [06:48]
Dan Schneier
I have stories, but we'll. We'll save them for that day.
- [06:51]
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, look at your house.
- [06:53]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, that is its own disaster.
- [06:55]
Jamie Eisenberg
Look at that thing.
- [06:56]
Dan Schneier
Stories. I've got. I've got things going on.
- [06:58]
Jamie Eisenberg
Got a piano.
- [07:00]
Dan Schneier
Okay, well, this Is great. Yeah. See, I. A lot of construction was going on, as you know from my. The house I live in. It was supposed to take six weeks. Started in January, it's late March. So I said, effort. Let's buy this mansion that you see in the background if you're watching on YouTube. As everyone knows, editors for sports websites make a lot of money. So here we go. Just bought it all in cash.
- [07:19]
Adam Azer
Bought the one room in the mansion. Now it's, it's a fake background if you guys are curious, but it's a nice little piano back there.
- [07:25]
Jamie Eisenberg
You're not supposed to ruin it.
- [07:27]
Adam Azer
Well, well, if he moves.
- [07:30]
Dan Schneier
Bobbing in and out of the picture as it blurs.
- [07:33]
Adam Azer
Yeah, exactly. All right, let's get to our news and notes. But mailbag tomorrow. So you have 24 hours to submit your questions. Fantasy football and again, I want to invite all of you to watch this on YouTube. We're going to look at some, some, some pictures of Russell Wilson with the Steelers last year. So the Giants signed him to a one year deal. Could be worth up to $21 million. Ten and a half million guaranteed. Remember, they signed Jameis Winston to a two year deal, $8 million. But they can get out of that, as Dan was saying, if they want. All right, Jamie, what's your take on this with Wilson going to the Giants now joining Jameis Winston?
- [08:06]
Jamie Eisenberg
I would be very surprised if they still drafted a quarterback at three. They could obviously still take one later in the draft and who knows how far Sanders may fall if they decide to jump back into the first round and draft him. I did see one mock draft where they took, I think it was Hunter at 3, Travis Hunter 3, and then still got Shadow Sanders at 32. So obviously making a trade to get back in the first round. So something like that could still unfold for them or they take, you know, obviously one of the, you know, third, fourth, fifth quarterbacks that are going to be, you know, rated depending on whoever they like. But in any event, it feels like this is what they're going with in 2025. And it's not a horrible strategy, just if you don't love Sanders and can't get Cam Ward. So like Dan said, I was more excited about Jameis for the receiving core there. For the Giants, we'll see if they add to the receiving core because now Travis Hunter is certainly in play and I would imagine they're probably looking to draft him out, play him at wide receiver as opposed to corner. It's really all about Malik Neighbors at this Point because he's the prize for the Giants when it comes to fantasy managers. Nobody's drafting Russell Wilson in one quarterback leagues. He's a, you know, mid round pick at best and super flex and two quarterback leagues, you know, fallback option and who knows again how long he'll hold the job for. I do think this is bad for Neighbors to a certain extent. You know, so the, the heights that he could have had with Jameis. I mentioned this on Monday, show that following the signing I put him at wide receiver four. I dropped him. I dropped him back down to where he was prior to the Jameis Winston signing, which is still a late first round pick, early second round pick. I can't imagine this coaching staff does anything to get away from Neighbors and still featuring him. But like you said, Russ has sort of been good for some receivers he did actually get, which is surprising. I think it's five seasons, certainly four, but it might be five seasons. I'll go back and check. Of a receiver catching 10 plus touchdowns. We know he did it with Cortland Sutton.
- [09:57]
Adam Azer
Yeah.
- [09:58]
Jamie Eisenberg
In Denver he actually had Doug Baldwin lead the NFL in touchdown receptions. I believe it was 2014. Metcalf did it twice, Lockett did it once. So there, there's still optimism for Neighbors to take a step forward in that category. But does he give him 170 targets? Does he get to 100, you know, 10 catches or so, which is what he was around last year. Can he be a 1500 yard receiver? Those are all questions that I think we'll have to sort of see how it plays out. So it's not the most ideal situation for Neighbors. But I don't think it's horrible given what he was dealing with last year with DeVito and Daniel Jones and Tim Boyle and Drew Locke. You know, it was a messy group. So this gives you a little bit more stability from that spot.
- [10:35]
Dan Schneier
I would, I would even argue that while it's not anywhere near what Jamis would have been, it's a pretty solid spot for Neighbors. I was looking into some data. This is according to FDN fantasy league neighbors led the NFL with 30 targets off of go routes last season. And last year, Russell Wilson averaged 4.2 targets off go routes in 2024. That was third most in the NFL. That's just a drop in the bucket as far as what he did in the D path. He had the 8th most completions of 20 plus air yards despite only playing 11 games. His EPA per drop back on 20 plus air yards throws was second in the NFL Best completion percentage over expected on these 20 plus yard air throws. Number two in the league in EPA on just 10 to 19 air yard throws and number two in CPOE. Completion percentage over expected in that same category. When it comes down to Wilson, it just, it depends what he's doing on the field. Last year he had a 10 to 1 touchdown interception ratio when he got the ball out. Ball out under 2.5 seconds, 74.3% completion rate when it was over 2 1/2.2 2 1/2 seconds. I should say he dropped to 55.5% with the 33rd EPA. He really struggled when he held onto the ball when he couldn't confirm what he saw pre snap post snap when they rotated on him or just wasn't there. That's when things started to break down for him similar to Daniel Jones. But when he got the ball out early, he really gave those receivers an advantage and I think that's going to help Malik neighbors. He can win early on those go routes isolated on the outside of a backside of a one by three or just if they move him into the slot because that's something he did with Jaden Daniels at lsu. The Giants weren't able to take advantage of last year with Daniel Jones and Drew Lock. So I do think the vertical game is going to be big for neighbors with Russell.
- [12:14]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, well, two things, Adam. You know, DK Metcalf's best season his second season. You know, that was obviously a much younger Russell Wilson in a system that he was, you know, certainly familiar with. But Metcalf's best year was year two, obviously Malik neighbors entering year two. You know, you talk about just physical freaks in terms of just, you know, how they can operate. And then you look at what he did last year with George Pickens in the first six games, four of those six games he was north of 16 PPR points. You know, like that's not what we're hoping for with Neighbors. We're hoping for 18 to to 20. But again, you know, you're looking at a receiver that's a little bit more, I think polished as a route runner at a younger, you know, age than, than what Pickens was able to do. So if the vertical game comes into play, which we know has been Russell Wilson's strength certainly over the last two seasons or three seasons, you know, maybe his entire career, but you know, it's been a little bit more magnified what he did in Denver and Pittsburgh. I think that makes neighbors a little bit more deadly because it feels like To Dan's point, that's what was missing with the Giants quarterbacks and the ability to take those shots. So it's probably something that Dable and Joe and Shine looked at and said, okay, this is, you know, something that can enhance our offense. But at 37, you know, he turns 37 in November, you know, is that skill set going to still be there looking at like Aaron Rodgers for example, who's sort of lost the, the want to at least you know, coming back from last year, you know, throwing the ball down, down the field. I don't think that happens for Russell Wilson, but you just never know as they get older.
- [13:36]
Adam Azer
Yeah, Joe Shane, you had, I think you were going to say it right and then you got cold feet there.
- [13:43]
Jamie Eisenberg
I'm with two Giants gu make sure I'm getting right. Yeah.
- [13:45]
Adam Azer
So the issue I think for neighbors is is format, I think. Right. Because for whatever reason maybe this will change. Russell Wilson has had, he's been in the league since 2012. He's had almost no season, I would say maybe two seasons where he's thrown the ball a lot, usually throws about 31 times per game and it's pretty consistent. And not only that, he said this will be his fifth coach in five years. He's gone from Pete Carroll to Hackett to Peyton to Tomlin, now to Dable with different offensive coordinators and no matter what, they just don't let him throw that much. So that means fewer catches. And you know, that's kind of what concerns me. Like can Neighbors get to 100 catches with Russell Wilson? I mean sure, but that it's just a weird thing with Wilson with you remember the let Russ Cook thing just for throughout his career he's had I think two seasons where he's been like more than 34 pass attempts is usually in the 31 range. And I just want to say this for Wilson though. In your super flex leagues you don't think like nobody thinks he's been a good quarterback the last four years. Basically everyone thinks he's the worst. He's not. He's finished as QB 13, 17, 14 and 15 per game in 4 point per passing touchdown leagues. 13, 19, 13 and 15 per game in 6 point per passing touchdown leagues. That's pretty good. I want to take a look though at what I don't think he does well and then we'll move on. We have to talk about Stefan Diggs also. Today's topic is five players that Dan really likes this year. But I want to take a look at some shots of Just, just for fun of Russell Wilson, I think his biggest issue, he just doesn't see open players. Okay.
- [15:19]
Dan Schneier
In the middle of the field.
- [15:20]
Adam Azer
Yeah, anywhere. So everything you see against the jets, this is what's concerning. Everything you see against the jets is from the first quarter. This is almost every drop back of the first quarter against the Jets. Look at this play. You see George Pickens in the middle of the field. Like that is an open receiver. He's about to come open. He rolls out. He does complete this pass short to this outlet around the 33 yard line. I know who it is. Can kind of, if we zoom in, might be able to see the description of the play. But that's one play where he's missed someone. Let's. Let's go to our next one. Look to the left. The guy is wide open. The pocket is clean. I think he ended up scrambling on this play. Okay, let's go to our next play. This is a tough one. You see near the 11 yard line. I don't know if that's George Pickens, but whoever that is, he has beaten his man. A great throw is probably a touchdown here. There was a little bit of pressure, but an open guy, but that's a tough one. Next play. I mean, come on. Look at the right side of the field. This ball goes to George Pickens, top left, blanketed by Sauce Gardner. And he didn't even look to his right. He's got two guys wide open. And this is what I noticed last year when I was watching his tape from the Broncos. Or there was this one play in particular where Jerry Judy is wide open for like this huge gain, probably a touchdown. Doesn't even look at him. How does this ball go to George Pickens? Just look to the right, man. There's. There are two players that are absolutely wide open. All right, last one. So there's two shots on this play. This is the same play. This is against the Browns. Everything you just saw was in one quarter against the Jets. Pat Friarmuth is about the 29 yard line. Dwayne Washington is at the 15 yard line. So go to the next frame. This is about half a second later. These three defenders for the Browns at the 25 yard line are all about to come in. They're all. They've already started. Pat Friarmouth is four yards behind them. This is an 85 yard touchdown to Pat Friarmouth. Instead, he checks down to Washington at the 15 yard line. This, this play drove me crazy. I just. And I see this from Russell Wilson now. He just. I Don't know if he just go through his progressions much. Dan, you were talking about what you noticed on tape with him. But that's one quarter against the jets and then there's just this one play that stood out against the Browns. He is just not seeing these players who are wide open.
- [17:40]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, he has trouble seeing the field. And I think on all the plays you broke down, I think every single one of them would qualify. In what I said before, plays that took over two and a half seconds for him to get rid of the ball. If he sees a pre snap and and it confirms it post snap, he gets rid of the ball, usually it's going to be a good player. At least the numbers say that when the opposite happens, you didn't even get into it, Adam. But his sack rate is through the roof compared to where he was in his career earlier. He was never good in that regard. But now it's become a nightmare situation where it's one of the worst the NFL when it comes to pressure to sack rate. So it's just something that the Giants gonna have to deal with. They know what they're getting here. They're not getting a perfect quarterback. But I think from the fantasy standpoint, this actually is good news from league neighbors and could potentially bring a player like Slayton back into the mix as well.
- [18:23]
Adam Azer
All right, so Jamie, I'm sorry, where'd you say you had Malik neighbors?
- [18:27]
Jamie Eisenberg
I have Malik neighbors. I think I dropped them back down to like wide receiver seven or eight.
- [18:34]
Adam Azer
Okay. All right, let's take a break. Talk about Stefan Diggs after this.
- [18:40]
Jamie Eisenberg
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- [18:46]
Dan Schneier
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Jamie Eisenberg
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- [19:09]
Adam Azer
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- [19:12]
Jamie Eisenberg
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Dan Schneier
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Adam Azer
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Adam Azer
That's quite a deal, Snoop. And when you switch to T mobile you can save versus the other big guys.
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Dan Schneier
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Jamie Eisenberg
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Dan Schneier
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Jamie Eisenberg
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Dan Schneier
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- [19:39]
Adam Azer
All right, welcome back. So just a quick note on Cam Ward who had his pro day on Monday, Ryan Wilson, Ryan Wilson hasn't been to a ton of pro days, just the last few years I think. But he said, Cam, he went to C.J. stroud, he went to Jaden Daniels. I don't know if he went to Caleb Williams, but he said that Cam Ward's pro day was the best he's ever seen and it may not even be close. And Ryan Wilson is of course our draft expert for CBS sports.com we'll have him on the show pretty soon. Kirk Cousins could reportedly wave his no trade clause after the NFL draft. Chris Godwin's making good progress in his return from a dislocated ankle. The NFL could have touchbacks on kickoffs come out to the 35 yard line instead of the 30 which was proposed last year before they settled on the 30. But they want more kickoff returns. Pukinakua wants to retire at age 30. Don't we all? And now, Jamie, let's get to the news. The Patriots signing Stefan Diggs to a three year, $69 million deal with $26 million guaranteed reportedly ahead of schedule. According to ESPN. In his recovery from a torn ACL, Diggs was actually actually the number 18 wide receiver per game in full PPR last year. And yeah, what do you think about him going to the Patriots here on this three year deal?
- [20:53]
Jamie Eisenberg
I think from the team standpoint it's a smart move. It's basically a one year deal. I would, you know, sort of look at it that way. And they probably had to pay up to get him just because of what's the mark, what the market looks like right now for wide receivers. I'm sure it probably came down just based on reports between him and Amari Cooper. And they probably felt like he's a better fit for their team now as opposed to where Cooper is. Which tells you something about Cooper if that's the case, knowing that Diggs will be 32 in November coming off a torn ACL. But they needed to get some veteran in there. You know, this is a good signing for Drake May because as we've seen, and you know, you said it, Diggs, you look at C.J. stroud, he got off to a shaky start last year, but he was actually better when Diggs was on the field. Shroud was than when Diggs left the field. You know, obviously that coincides with Nico Collins with the, you know, injury he sustained and then losing Tank Dell at the end of the year. So the receiving core really was never whole throughout the course of the season. But I think just in terms of what Diggs did for Josh Allen as a young quarterback, you know, certainly helped him, you know, elevate his game. Clearly this is not the same receiver at this point in his career, but it does bring some stability to his receiving core, which was just, you know, barren at this point. Now I think they're going to be heavily involved in the draft this position because they need to add more skill players around him. I think just bringing in Matt Collins and Stefan Diggs doesn't solve the problem, but it helps, you know, so Drake may, I think, you know, gets a little bit of a boost, you know, not, not anything you want to just say, okay, now he's must start quarterback, but I think it just makes it more attractive to draft him as a late round guy with the hope that he could become, you know, a solid sleeper maybe in a breakout. In terms of Diggs on his own, you know, again, 32 coming or 31, you know, going to be 32 coming off the ACL tear, he should lead the team in targets. You know, I, I think they're, it's going to be fun to see what happens, you know, with the Giants at 3 and the Patriots at 4 when it comes to Travis Hunter because it'd be very surprising if he gets past those two teams unless somebody trades up, you know, to get in front of them. But if, if they do put him at receiver, you know, then wouldn't shock me if, in terms of the Patriots, at least if Hunter is the best receiver on, on the team. So digs for now in pencil, you know, should leave the team in targets. Last year was on pace for 100 catches, just a little over a thousand yards and six touchdowns. So still could be a number three fantasy receiver. I would prefer to still draft him as a late number or, you know, low end number three, more of a high end, number four guy. Just the circumstances being what they are coming off the ACL tear and his age, but probably good value, you know, so round seven, round eight is the earliest I would look for him. He, you know, I'll be a little bit more optimistic. He's healthier. But you know how I feel about older receivers, especially when they turn 32. I'm not going to be heavily invested in Stefan Diggs, but again, landing spot, you know, if you're just looking at the free agents, Devonte Adams, probably the best. And. And this might be the second best just in terms of, you know, going to a place where he gets a big opportunity.
- [23:41]
Adam Azer
Yeah, I would be pretty. I think I'd be excited about it. Fairly excited. You know, from like a wide receiver two, three kind of standpoint in fantasy, if you weren't coming off torn acl.
- [23:52]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yes.
- [23:52]
Adam Azer
Yeah, it's. It's just kind of a bummer.
- [23:55]
Dan Schneier
That part of it is a bummer. And we have all the data on the players that come back from we saw with Godwin. But what I think about, and Jamie broke this down well, I thought really well, was if they chose Diggs over Cooper, was it specifically to fit a role within that offense? Josh McDaniel's coming over. What we know historically about that specific kind of offense is that the slot is going to be heavily targeted. Cooper, not a lot of experience playing out of slot, can play out of the slot. More of an outside X. Diggs started to move into the slot at times. The end with Buffalo and then with Houston and maybe coming off the ACL is no longer a boundary receiver. If he's now that slot guy who they can rely on and that's the reason they brought him in, that's a big role that could lead to a lot of targets next year and a lot of volume for PPR league. So I do want to see what they do in the draft, what kind of talent they add. I think they need to add o line over receivers. As crazy as that sounds, I'm most worried about that and if that can derail the whole offense. But I'm intrigued by this fit because I think there's a lot of target upside here.
- [24:53]
Adam Azer
Yeah. Oh, for sure. And the slot rate that you mentioned, now, they didn't have True. Media didn't calculate slot rate in Diggs's first two seasons, but since then, last year's slot rate was a career high 41 slot rate for Stefan Diggs. All right, let's get to some of Dan's favorite. Oh, wait, you know, let me throw out some. Some Stefan Diggs ors as of right now. Would you rather have Stefan Diggs or a 49ers wide receiver?
- [25:22]
Jamie Eisenberg
Right now, the 49ers, I have the healthy 49ers receivers ahead of Diggs. Digs ahead of Ayuk.
- [25:30]
Dan Schneier
Right now, I think I would go Jennings, Diggs and then any other 49ers receiver.
- [25:35]
Adam Azer
Would you rather have Jacoby Myers or Stefan Diggs?
- [25:39]
Jamie Eisenberg
Diggs. Oh, Myers by a lot.
- [25:41]
Dan Schneier
Oh, Digs for me.
- [25:44]
Adam Azer
Jaden Reed or Diggs.
- [25:47]
Jamie Eisenberg
But again that that's in pencil that.
- [25:49]
Dan Schneier
One thinks for me, I just see a lot of target upside there because if we're talking bpr.
- [25:54]
Adam Azer
All right, let's go to Dan's favorites. Dan gave us a big, big fun list of his favorites, but we're going to focus on five here and we'll start with Josh Jacobs. So we're going to go Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Tyreek Hill, DJ Moore, Juwan Jennings. So as we sit here on March 26, some guys that Dan thinks he's going to be drafting a lot. This is the at cost. So Josh Jacobs was the number six running back per game last year and overall he's been consistently late, second to mid third, I'd say in our drafts. The draft we did last week, he was the fifth pick of round three. Dude, Thomas Schaefer. Great pick, Thomas, and someone that you really like, Dan.
- [26:31]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I've seen him exactly what you said. Going more toward the end like a third round range, mid third round, sometimes early third round. One of the most consistent players I think you can get in that range of the draft. Josh Jacobs has played a lot of games, not a massive injury history, still a younger back and also just found his fit within that offense really well. Last year you started to see down the stretch he started to score more touchdowns than we predicted on the show, the touchdown regression. But I think there's even more room to grow there because I don't think Jordan Love played healthy the entire season. I think he's going to take a step forward and Jacob himself talked about that. I don't think he needs receivers, dude. I think he just needs health and the help of the packers offensive line. So what did they do? They went out and signed one of the biggest ticket offensive linemen in free agency and Aaron Banks, I think he's going to get in there. And that interior offensive line between Banks, Jenkins and Sean Ryan, that is one of the most exciting power interior offensive lines in the NFL. They're going to create interesting spots for Jacobs, big holes up the middle. And I think Jacob's going to cash in on a lot of touchdowns. And it's not the same idea, but it's similar to the idea of Derrick Henry last year. It's not the same thing, but it's similar that you're buying in on a really good offense, you hope with a lot of touchdown upside. And for Jacobs it's a lot of upside in my mind at least for touches. I think the packers have changed their Ways, maybe that changes. Maybe they draft someone in this draft. There's so many good backs in this class, and then they could be tempted to do what they've done in the past, but Jacobs does it all for them and can be on the field for all three downs. So I think there's a lot of touchdown upside, I think there's a lot of touch upside, and I think this offense will take a leap forward.
- [28:02]
Adam Azer
I'm not going to project more touchdowns because he had 16 touchdowns in 17 games, so that's pretty good. But, you know, he just feels like the safest running back in that range. Jamie, you know, just. He's just a workhorse every single year.
- [28:16]
Jamie Eisenberg
Of his career, to be honest. And the workhorse, you know, tag is perfect. I struggle with him and Kyren Williams because they feel very similar in terms of, you know, what you're getting, you know, and they're still in their prime and they're in very good offenses and they don't come off the field very often. Now, the plan was, at least on paper, felt like it was going to be Jacobs and, and sprinkling Marshawn Lloyd, and we didn't get a chance to see that because of Lloyd's injury. So to Dan's point, do they go back to the draft and add somebody else, or do they just sort of bank on Lloyd, you know, being healthy in year two? And. And maybe we see a little bit less work for Jacobs, but we've talked about this so much last year that the problems with Jordan Love were partly due to the run game being so successful for the packers, and they sort of changed how their offensive approach was from 2023 to 2024. And so did it work? Yes and no. I mean, obviously it got them to the playoffs. It helped, you know, the team. He was a great signing, you know, one of the best free agent signings and certainly at a position that had a lot of them last season, but, you know, didn't get them ultimately, I think where they want to go. So maybe see a little bit more balance and that might hurt Jacobs a little bit in the run game, but maybe helps him a little bit in the past game, which I think has sort of been an underrated part of his game, as we saw the first year with Josh McDaniels with the Raiders, and we saw it, you know, last year a little bit as well. When he's a 36 catch guy, can he be a 40 catch guy? You know, certainly that's, that's, that's right there for Him. So I think in terms of Jacobs, I love him in round two, I think if you go receiver round one, you want to go hero rb. It's a great, you know, player to target really outside of the, the big three, which are for me in order, Bijan, Gibbs and Barkley. I know I'm the low guy probably on Barkley in that regard, but he's right in the conversation before I have HN4, just because I think there's more upside, especially when you look what HN did with tua. But right after that, Jacobs is next for me, you know, so I go back, you know, between Jacobs and Kyron, Kyron and Jacobs, you know, but Derrick Henry's there, you know, James Cook is there, Chase Brown is there, Bucky Irving's there. You know, that group, I think, you know, to me I sort of, you know, if you're tearing them, I think there's a top three, you know, H. Antony is a little bit by himself. And then there's the next two guys of Jacobs and Kyron. Just because they're so safe, if they stay healthy, you know what you're getting.
- [30:30]
Adam Azer
Okay. I try to think like, what's the downside? How could things go wrong for Josh Jacobs? So I got a couple things. First of all, they were so run heavy last year. Third highest run rate in the NFL. They're running back rush attempts over the last four seasons. I know, I have so many stinking notes. Here we go. 391, four seasons. I do this because that's when they started the 17 game season. 291 running back rush attempts. 300. Sorry. 391. 410. 368. 446. So if it's back closer to 400 now I'm like the Marshawn Lloyd thing is interesting. They can mix them in. But actually Emmanuel Wilson had 100 carries last year. So he did have some competition. This team just ran the ball so much so there could be fewer carries. Also, first six games of the season, he scored one touchdown. He was not even a top 24 running back per game. So that's the thing with Jacobs. If he doesn't score, you're not getting a lot of catches. You had a 41 catch pace last year in the games that Jordan Love played. He had two games with Malik Willis where he had one target and one catch. But he's like a 40 catch guy. Maybe he's. Maybe if they go back to throwing the ball more, he's more like a 45, 50 catch guy. So that could be a moot point. But if he doesn't score, could be bad. Also, like think about Jacobs is he's not really an explosive player. He doesn't really have a lot of like long runs. So I think the worst case scenario, I don't know how realistic this is as he just struggles and they go with like the younger fresher guy. And Jacobs is in more of a platoon, which had always been Matt LaFleur's preference. But that could be because Aaron Jones was, was not a workhorse. You know, Jacobs is.
- [32:10]
Jamie Eisenberg
And well, that's kind of, you know, to that point. That's what Kevin O'Connell talked about.
- [32:14]
Dan Schneier
Right.
- [32:15]
Jamie Eisenberg
Coming off the Minnesota office or going into the off, coming off the year that he had just had in Minnesota that they felt that they worked him too much, which was a career high in touches for Aaron Jones. So who knows. But he was Also, you know, 30.
- [32:25]
Dan Schneier
Different kind of back and I think that's important to note. Like Jacobs and, and Jones are built different. They can handle different things. And yeah, I agree with you, Adam, that he's not the most explosive back most of his long runs game with the Raiders. He is a very productive back and efficient back and I think that's why they signed him. That's what lafor envision and that's what Floor got last year, which he maybe didn't get from Dylan or Jones at all times. Not saying that never happened, but Jones was a very explosive back. But Jacob's offer something different. So I don't really see him coming off the field and I don't see how the touchdowns come down. You, you mentioned all those players earlier. It's interesting to me like when I hear it framed like that, Adam, I really do have a tier of backs that I want to get and not miss out on and it drops off when I get to Bucky Irving and Chase Brown because I don't view them anywhere near those top guys who I think are locked into their roles and locked into the red zone roles and locked into volume and touchdowns. Both Brown and Irving scare me. They're exciting backs, they're electric. People are going to want them for that reason. I also am not sold that both of them are going to get a lot of touches next year.
- [33:22]
Adam Azer
Are you taking Jacobs over Jonathan Taylor.
- [33:27]
Jamie Eisenberg
Putting his Wisconsin love to the test?
- [33:29]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I am. Too many injuries for Taylor.
- [33:31]
Jamie Eisenberg
I, I am just passing him. I mean Richardson starts the majority of the season, then that doesn't help Jonathan Taylor's upside.
- [33:39]
Dan Schneier
I don't Think Jones helps his upside either though.
- [33:42]
Adam Azer
Well, Jones will throw to him more than Richardson.
- [33:44]
Dan Schneier
Jones is going to be off the field with three and outs all the time. There's.
- [33:47]
Adam Azer
So by the way, Dan, I went to a sports bar on Saturday night with a Wisconsin grad named Dan to watch the Wisconsin game.
- [33:57]
Dan Schneier
You really had to bring this up. She really had to bring this up.
- [34:00]
Adam Azer
Completely unfazed. He. They lost the game. Dan, like, Dan Wisconsin devastated. Yeah, I know. They lost the game. And he was like, oh, that was a great game.
- [34:09]
Dan Schneier
I was like, are you kidding?
- [34:10]
Adam Azer
I would have been.
- [34:11]
Dan Schneier
Dude, we gave up 91 points. They wouldn't miss BYU.
- [34:15]
Adam Azer
That's because BYU is awesome and they are 100% going to beat Alabama.
- [34:18]
Dan Schneier
The only my Discord 91.
- [34:20]
Jamie Eisenberg
I was like, can they miss a shot?
- [34:22]
Adam Azer
The only reason it was close.
- [34:23]
Dan Schneier
Banging threes.
- [34:24]
Adam Azer
The only reason it was close is that guy elbowed the Wisconsin player in the nerds.
- [34:28]
Dan Schneier
I know we got that weird lucky tech and that put us back in the game. But like.
- [34:32]
Adam Azer
And they ejected him. That guy was killing you.
- [34:34]
Dan Schneier
I know.
- [34:35]
Adam Azer
BYU is really good. I see the graphic of where the top eight players in minutes on each of the Sweet 16 teams started their college careers.
- [34:47]
Dan Schneier
Nowhere where they are now.
- [34:49]
Adam Azer
Well, Purdue, all eight of them did, but for several schools, none of them did.
- [34:54]
Dan Schneier
Yeah.
- [34:54]
Adam Azer
And like I think, like, I think. I think Kentucky had more players who started their career at Arkansas than Arkansas.
- [35:01]
Dan Schneier
Yep. Well, that's.
- [35:02]
Jamie Eisenberg
Remember the. The run that FAU had two years ago?
- [35:05]
Adam Azer
Yeah.
- [35:06]
Jamie Eisenberg
Do you know like they're three of their players. One's at Michigan with Dusty May, ones at Florida and one's at Arkansas.
- [35:14]
Dan Schneier
That's.
- [35:14]
Adam Azer
Let's see. Florida has three players in their top eight minutes who started at Florida. Yeah. It's just funny.
- [35:24]
Dan Schneier
It's the reason why. At least people theorize. It's the reason why we didn't have much madness this year. First year in what, eight years where they didn't have a 13, 14, 15 or 16 seed win. Interesting is all the TR they're all transferring out of.
- [35:37]
Jamie Eisenberg
See what you know the transfer portal opens after the round of 32.
- [35:41]
Adam Azer
Yeah, it's open.
- [35:42]
Jamie Eisenberg
And J.J. watt had a great tweet. He. He said he's like this would be a free agency started after wild card round. Yeah.
- [35:48]
Adam Azer
It's crazy.
- [35:50]
Jamie Eisenberg
Kentucky, I think 750 players entered the portal.
- [35:53]
Adam Azer
Yeah. I'm saying, wow. Kentucky has zero players in their top eight in minutes. Zero players who started at Kentucky, whereas Arkansas has three. I think I switched that Arkansas has.
- [36:04]
Jamie Eisenberg
This factoring in freshman though.
- [36:08]
Adam Azer
Probably includes them.
- [36:10]
Dan Schneier
More importantly, Jamie, is UF gonna win it all?
- [36:13]
Jamie Eisenberg
I mean, they definitely have a shot. I hope so. It, it's been a little scary.
- [36:19]
Dan Schneier
Despite dominating the SEC tourney just days ago, you always.
- [36:22]
Jamie Eisenberg
I, I hated seeing Connecticut. I knew Connecticut was gonna be Oklahoma. I hated seeing Connecticut around 2. Like that was, that was the game that was like, you know, fear that one now, you know, tough with Maryland. I'm glad St. John's is out, but Arkansas is no joke.
- [36:36]
Adam Azer
So Maryland look like crap. I think Florida will get to the final Four. They wouldn't play Duke until the final, right?
- [36:43]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, they play Duke in the final play Auburn, if they get to the final four.
- [36:48]
Adam Azer
Duke looks quite good. All right, let's go back to Dan's favorites. Tony Pollard, number 22 running back overall number 22 per game, in full PPR on pace for 276 carries, which isn't great. 44 catches, only five touchdowns. That was a 17 game pace. He did leave one game early with an injury, so maybe it's more like 280 plus carries. But yeah, you like Tony Pollard, huh? And boy, Taji Spears. 84 carries all year and 20 of them came in one game without Pollard.
- [37:18]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I was going to say, I mean if you look at the split, it wasn't what we were projecting or what some were projecting here when it came to Spears versus Pollard. I don't see that changing anytime soon given what Pollard was able to do last year on a person that basis. And this is despite scoring five touchdowns, which kills your fantasy value on an offense with Will Levis, which is dead in the water, or Mason Rudolph. And this year everything is changing for Tony Pollard in this offense. First of all, they were insanely active in freedc on the offensive line. They brought in Dan Moore, which allows them at left tackle, which allows them to move JC Latham back to his natural position at right tackle. The things he can do in that run game at right tackle will be phenomenal, especially with Kevin Zeitler, one of the better veteran guards in the NFL, also signing with the Titans. They just continue to invest in this offensive line for hall of Fame offensive line coach Bill Callahan working for his son, who is in my mind one of the two or three best offensive line coaches left in the NFL. And the things they're going to do in the run game are going to be explosive. They're going to be interesting. Add on top of all that, Cam Ward most likely going to the Titans at number one overall, the creativity that he Plays with. I heard him do an interview at his pro day and was so impressed by how he talked about like the first thing he discussed was watching a lot of NFL tape. He sees areas of the field the NFL plays a lot of COVID two, they play a lot of COVID three. They use these zones, they leave these zones open. So I think we're just going to see a creative and explosive offense that takes advantage of the intermediate areas of the field, challenging those areas, opening things in the run game, forcing safeties to play off the ball. It's all going to benefit Pollard this year. In my mind. I think he's going to score double digit touchdowns in this offense. Yeah, I do. I think Cam Ward will hit the ground running. Their offensive line is going to be fixed if not one of the better in the NFL was already trending that direction. They have Callahan and I think this is where we see Callahan, his son, who's the head coach, start to really figure it out from an offensive play calling standpoint. There was always talent there. He did a good job in Cincinnati. It's very difficult to work with Will Levis. He's not an NFL quarterback and never should have been. It's even more difficult. It's probably just as difficult to work with Mason Rudolph a little easier. He actually has, you know, some quarterbacking skills from a pre to post snap processing standpoint. But Cam Ward, it's a whole different ball game.
- [39:29]
Adam Azer
Well, here's the range that Tony Pollard went in in our draft last week. So this, this was round six. We had Tyrone, Tracy, Jalen, Warren, Isaiah Pacheco, Tony Pollard, Ramondre Stevenson. And we again, it was Tracy, Warren, Pacheco, Pollard, Stevenson. Jamie, how do you feel about Pollard in that group?
- [39:51]
Jamie Eisenberg
I think that's where he belongs. You know, I don't disagree with a lot of what Dan said. You know, this should be a better year in Tennessee based on if Cam Ward is as good as advertised or at least just better than what they had last year, which is hard to say. That's not going to be the case. They do they scare you from a passing game perspective, even with a better quarterback. And you know, how much are they going to see a lot of stacked boxes? How much is he going to come off the field for Taije Spears? You know, how much is he still going to, you know, I don't know if he's a feature guy, you know, I mean, he's sort of been thrust into that role, but has he ever really been successful in that role? And so he had some good moments last year, but we know he struggled with it in Dallas and part of that, I think, was the injury. But is he more of just one of these guys that's better as the lead in a tandem as opposed to, you know, being a consistent 15 to 20 total touch guy and being successful in that role? And that's the questions I have about Tony Pollard. So I think he's a good number two fantasy running back. I think he definitely has the opportunity to be a top 15 caliber guy. I don't know if he has the ability to get to, you know, I know Dan's got questions on Bucky Irving and Chase Brown. I don't know if he can be as good as those guys. And, and, you know, those guys certainly showed the ability to, you know, be sort of, you know, potential superstars, you know, smaller backs, but can still, you know, produce and obviously great offenses. And so if the Titans offense takes a step forward, then clearly Tony Pollard's going to be a big reason why helping his quarterback and being the guy that I think, you know, Callahan needs and everything Dan said about the offensive line certainly has the ability to hold true. I think we maybe overvalued that offense line a little bit last year, especially with Callahan and his dad coming on board, you know, just thinking that everything would be fixed. But I, I can see it being a 6040 split and Pollard still being good, just not being great. But I love drafting him in this range, you know, so the, a lot of the guys that you mentioned, you know, this is great for, you know, hero rb. It's great certainly for zero rb, you know, to get one of these guys, you know, as your lead running back. Because you could see the upside for Pacheco v. South. You see the upside for, you know, Jalen Warren if he's the guy in Pittsburgh, see the upside for Tony Pollard, you know, and we saw from Tracy, you know, as a rookie with just a terrible environment and it was a very successful fantasy option. So all these guys are great values in round six. Pollard may be the best. There's no question about it.
- [42:03]
Adam Azer
Cool. All right, let's move on. Let's talk about some wide receivers here. Tyreek Hill is one of your favorites to draft. And let's take a look at where Tyreek Hill went. He went in the third round. Oh, he went in the first round. Oh, my gosh.
- [42:20]
Dan Schneier
No.
- [42:21]
Adam Azer
Yeah, this was a reach. So.
- [42:23]
Dan Schneier
But usually he goes, this is not based on this draft. It's based on all the other drafts we've done. My play here all right, where do.
- [42:28]
Adam Azer
You want to see Tyreek Hill being drafted?
- [42:31]
Dan Schneier
Well, I've seen him drafted in our drafts much later than what you just said. I've seen him fall to round three.
- [42:36]
Adam Azer
Wait a sec, we didn't take a break, did we?
- [42:39]
Dan Schneier
No, no, we gotta do that.
- [42:40]
Jamie Eisenberg
All right, a little bit of a tease.
- [42:42]
Adam Azer
Let's, let's take a quick commercial break and then we'll get to Tyreek Hill after this.
- [42:46]
Dan Schneier
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Dan Schneier
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- [43:16]
Adam Azer
I can say to my new Samsung Galaxy S25 Ultra, hey, find a keto.
- [43:20]
Dan Schneier
Friendly restaurant nearby and text it to Beth and Steve. And it does without me lifting a finger so I can get in more.
- [43:26]
Adam Azer
Squats anywhere I can. 1, 2, 3. Will that be cash or credit? Credit. 4 Galaxy S25 Ultra the AI companion that does the heavy lifting. So you can do you get yours@samsung.com compatible select apps requires Google Gemini account.
- [43:44]
Jamie Eisenberg
Results may vary based on input.
- [43:45]
Adam Azer
Check responses for accuracy. Did you know that Tyreek Hill went in the first round of our draft last week? Holy cow.
- [43:51]
Dan Schneier
I probably wouldn't include him on this list if it were just going off of that. But I've seen him go in round three and at the end of round two for majority of our mock drafting off season thus far. Is that correct?
- [43:59]
Adam Azer
Yeah, I think that's fair. He was wide receiver 33 per game last year. He played 17 games. It did not even get to a thousand yards. He is 31 years old, just turned 31 in March and you want to draft some Tyree Kill?
- [44:14]
Dan Schneier
Oh yeah I do. Especially if and I think he will drop into that end of round two, round three range because I think things are going to get better overall for this Dolphins offense. I think we'll see them look a lot more like the 2023 version and the 2022 version than the 202024 version of the Dolphins. Just given what they're going to do in the offseason, what they have done and the health of these players. I think what is lost is when that type of season happens with TUA going down, you're Going to lose the rapport, you're going to lose the timing of the offense and you're going to lose the feel. And that's exactly what happened with this Dolphins offense. Now this is a little bit of pie in the sky for me. This is a little bit of market, you know, game theory, but I'm leaning into that. I'm not going to get Tyree Kill at this cost. And there's just no player that I'm going to draft in that range end of round two, early round three that could win me a league like Tyreek Hill can. And all I need to happen is for this offense to look more like it did for the 2 year sample size we had rather than last year while dealing with injuries, both Hill's injury and to his injury, in addition to an offensive line that dealt with injuries of their own. Now, I'm not sold on the additions the Dolphins are going to make on the offensive line or that getting much better, but it can't get worse than it was last year and it limited their entire offense. We saw Mike McDaniel have to do things that he never did, feature Johnny Smith, go through different areas of the run game and use the running backs in the passing game. That's not how he wants to run this offense.
- [45:36]
Adam Azer
Are you sure about that? That. That's the big question I have, you know, is I feel like it's a great spot for a bounce back for Tyree Kill, but we talked about this a lot, right? The Dolphins said before the 2024 season, we can't be so reliant on the home run, on the big play. We need to be able to kind of establish drives, keep our defense off the field, hit singles basically.
- [45:57]
Dan Schneier
And it didn't work though.
- [45:59]
Adam Azer
It, I mean, it kind of worked. They weren't really.
- [46:02]
Dan Schneier
That's.
- [46:03]
Adam Azer
Well, that's partially because two missed what, five games. He played 11. He missed six games. I mean, they basically were the same team. They were a bubble playoff team. They probably make the playoffs if he doesn't get hurt and they probably lose in the first round. But you know, I, I don't, I don't know that it didn't work for them. They just, they just threw to Hn more and then they threw to John who Smith more. So like Tyree kill went from 171 targets in 16 games to 123 targets in 17 games. I want to believe in him. I just, I'm really hoping they get back to featuring him more.
- [46:37]
Jamie Eisenberg
Yeah, I think.
- [46:38]
Dan Schneier
Go ahead, Jamie.
- [46:39]
Jamie Eisenberg
Both can be true. I think they could still run a similar style of offense and Tyree Kill can have a bounce back season. Now, will he get to what he was in 2023 and 2022? Probably not if this continues. But if you're looking at what his upside is and still what his talent level is and still I think why they're keeping him as opposed to everything he said at, you know, his, his exit interview, if you will, you know, in, in the final game of the season when he was saying he's out and his salary and all those things, you know, and whatever he may have brought in trade, which still could possibly happen. But, but I just think that if you're looking at a receiver that can get you probably 17 or 18 points per game, which I'm sure is something we would all take at this point for, you know, where you're drafting him, you'd buy in all day long, you know. So I don't think he's going to challenge for 2,000 yards. Like was the storyline in 2023. I don't know if he's ever going to get back to again that, you know, 23, 20, you know, 22, 23 points per game type of guy. But like in round two, you know, we were talking about this yesterday at our Monday show, Adam, you know, A.J. brown and, and Drake London. I still would take Tyree Kill over both those guys, you know. So, you know, just looking at where, where they're at, like I said with, with, with Drake London, like it feels like last year was a ceiling, which was very good. You know, I think he's a borderline number one fantasy receiver, but I don't know if he has that extra gear that Tyreek has and A.J. brown in his offense. You know, unless you're just fully buying into Saquon Barkley being a disaster and them having to throw the ball a lot more, I don't think A.J. brown gets to that level too. Not they can't because he's certainly shown it. But I just don't think in the Eagles offense he does. Whereas if Tua and Tyreek decide to and Mike McDaniel decide to like feature him a little bit more to the level that he probably deserves still he could be that 22, 23 point per game type of guy. So he has that, you know, again still in his back pocket. But I think think I'll go a little bit lower. I think 16 to 18 as opposed to 17, you know, you're still getting a very good player in a round Two range at a discount, especially if to dance point he falls to the end of round two or beginning around three, you know, then to me that's a steal. Now, you know, Heath is not here to, you know, give his point on this, but I said this before, which is true. When a receiver at this age starts to show you a decline, you stay away. And so to what level you stay away. Again, just depends on how far he falls in the draft. But, you know, comparing him to Mike Evans or Devonte Adams, for example, you know, two receivers who are older than him, he started to fall off a little bit and those two guys have not. And so I'm gonna, you know, sort of talk out of both sides of my mouth here with this one because Tyree Kill, 31, I still think he has that extra gear. Whereas I'm a little bit more skeptical that Mike Evans and Devonte Adams keep it up.
- [49:28]
Adam Azer
I think Adams has definitely fallen off. I think he's not really what he like. He still puts up some good raw numbers, right?
- [49:35]
Jamie Eisenberg
Player versus production. You know, I think there's, there's a.
- [49:37]
Adam Azer
Conversation behind there like Evans, I mean, Evans has just been freaking great. Adams is just. I think he really benefited from Aaron Rodgers just being completely in love with him. But Tyree Kill, man, like we talked about this on beyond the Box Score. Tyree Kill, still killing people out there. Just didn't. Didn't get the ball thrown to him. And, and then I'm reading now just an article from Yahoo, just his wide receivers coach, Wes Welker. This article is from December 26th. Tyreek Hill's dealing with his wrist. He's got an ankle injury. There's always stuff as you get older in the league. So we knew about the wrist injury. Then he and Welker also mentioned the ankle injury. He said what I see on film as far as execution and doing his job on a play in and play out basis, I think has been really good. Has been really, really good from assignment technique, all those different things, he's been really good. Play in, play out. But he started the year hurt and then it got right.
- [50:26]
Dan Schneier
He didn't.
- [50:27]
Adam Azer
He come in with a wrist injury and then he got arrested and got worse.
- [50:31]
Dan Schneier
It was a rough year for him. Injuries and, and the quarterback situation. I just. Look, it's not going to be perfect. I don't think he's going to read get back to that level of being a top one, two or three overall pick. But I don't think you need him to be with where he's Being drafted.
- [50:44]
Jamie Eisenberg
You also, you know, you got to build in age, which is clearly, you know, a factor. And look Tua's health, you know, so when you're drafting Tyreek, you know, I don't think Zach Wilson is going to make Tyree Kill that much better as the new backup, you know, so you got to factor that into the equation if you are going to buy into him that if Tua misses time, it's going to be a disaster.
- [51:04]
Adam Azer
All right, let's go to D.J. moore. We got two more here, D.J. moore and Juwan Jennings. So let's hit D.J. moore here, who was wide receiver 27 per game last year.
- [51:14]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, we're running low on time, so I want to be quick with these. For me, DJ Moore is a scheme play. It's a play of. Of wow, look at the offense they're bringing over who most likely fits into that Aman Ross St. Brown role. Because I don't think they're going to go too far away from that offense and I think there's a reason why they have that, like why they've designed that offense through Aman Ross St. Brown. It allows things to develop differently in the running game and in the vertical passing game. So who's going to fit that role? Is it Romo Dunes? Highly doubted. He did play some slot, but I believe he's most likely better on the outside. Is it going to be whoever they sign or whoever they draft? Probably not. I think it's going to be DJ Moore. And if DJ Moore is in that similar role, that's a role that has so much volume upside and that's a role that has explosive play upside. You look at the tape of the Lions and you're like, how is Iman Rob St. Brown so open? Partly because he's really good at getting in and out of his breaks, which DJ Moore is as well. Partly it's by design. When you watch the tape, you see it. There are designs to get him open and it creates a lot of space and they put stretch on defense in very, in different ways that allows those opportunities for air for Monrose round. I think those opportunities will be there for DJ Moore. I think that I like what the Bears have done to upgrade their offensive line. They may even do more in the draft as well there to give Caleb Williams a little bit of time to find this. So I think we could be looking at a big time season for more.
- [52:33]
Jamie Eisenberg
I, I think there's. There's two things at play here for, for DJ Moore and I totally agree. First off, you're you're spot on. If he's, if he's a Monroe St. Brown in terms of opportunity and role, the sky's the maybe his best year ever. You know, better than what he did in 2023 with Justin Fields and how much he was featured in in that system. But even if he's not and if you're going to say okay, this is now Romo Dunes playing the slot and DJ Moore is now playing the Jameson Williams role, he's not Jameson Williams and Ben Johnson is going to evolve. He doesn't have the same type of quarterback in Caleb Williams that he had with Jared Goff. They're different. The, the offensive line, while upgraded, is not going to be as good. The run game, even if they get Genti is not going to be as good, at least initially. So he's going to have to adapt. And this is what we'll find out if Ben Johnson the offense coordinator can be Ben Johnson the head coach and just how he sort of takes the next evolution of him of his career. But DJ Moore is a proven guy that has sort of been capped more times than not and the hope is that Ben Johnson and a better Caleb Williams and a better offensive line and maybe this dream role opens up everything for him. So whether he's in Amara St. Brown's role or not, he's still going to be better than what he was a year ago again, to what heights. That's what you have to sort of, you know, see. But if he is in that role, we could be looking at a top 10 guy. Right? There's, there's no reason why he can't do it if he's getting fed that much based on his skill set. If Caleb Williams takes that step and even if Caleb Williams doesn't dramatically improve, it's not like Justin Fields was that polished of a passer in 2023 when DJ Moore was north of 16 points per game. Right. So there's an opportunity here that if Caleb Williams the prospect becomes Caleb Williams the player that DJ Moore just benefits in such a tremendous way that he's an easy guy to target for me as early as round three. Like I love the upside for DJ Moore this season, you know. So again to tie in the guys that we talked about on Monday, I'm trying to think the all the receiver comps he's better. He's. He's not ranked as high as but he's not far behind A.J. brown and Drake London, he's certainly behind St. Brown and Nico Collins, but he's Ahead of by far the other two guys.
- [54:48]
Dan Schneier
I mean, Harry, you're not paying that price. Jamie, that's the key here. This is the play. Like you don't. You said you'd be comfortable taking him as early as round three. Potentially I would be too because of all the upside case you broke down and how. Yes, there's downside, but there's fatigue that's set in with drafters when it comes to DJ Moore. They were billed, you know, the breakout for a long time, including last year where he was boosted back up boards and it didn't happen. And that's going to keep his price in my mind at least down. Now, this may change. If there's a lot of talk in camp about him playing the Monroe St. Brown role. It's gonna. Things change fast in fantasy, but as of now, the price tag is just way too cheap for the upside. Similar to Hill for me.
- [55:25]
Jamie Eisenberg
And, and just to tie in the chat, you know, real quick, Michael just posted a question about what if the Bears draft another wide receiver. That's certainly on the table. I mean, you know, when you lose Keenan Allen, who's most likely not coming back, they're gonna add somebody else. Now what part of the draft will determine how we feel about not just more, but also Roma Dunes? But you know, if we're talking about backfilling or, you know, I mean, look, this is a franchise that took Vilas Jones Jr. And, you know, took him way too soon as we are certainly finding out, you know, they may not find the, the, the Allen replacement, you know, so it could just be somebody that's, that's filling a role. If these two guys are locked in more and odunze, I want pieces of that offense. As you know, we broke down the mock draft. He took both those guys. He took D.J. moore and Roma Dunze and as I said, I drafted Caleb Williams. Thrilled about that.
- [56:15]
Adam Azer
So DJ Moore had a 7.9 yard ADOT last year, 7.5. That is ridiculous for DJ Moore. That's the kind of thing that, you know, Wanda Robinson, I mean, he's not going to be that high. But these like little slot guys should have. DJ Moore should have an eight out over 10 yards, which he's usually had in his career. From week 10 on, his A dot was 5.7 yards. And there were some games where his adot was almost negative. They used him a lot on wide receiver screens, gimmicky stuff. This offense was not good. It's going to be a lot better. The only thing I don't agree with you guys on is, I don't really care about this whole slot thing. I think we ran into this mistake with Devonte Smith last year where we said, well, Kellen Moore's got this history with slot receivers. Whoever they use in the slot is going to be great. Well, I think it just turns out that Kellen Moore's best receiver on Dallas and his best receiver on the Chargers, they happen to be slot receivers. I don't think Aman Ross St. Brown was great because he was a slot receiver in Ben Johnson's system necessarily. I think he's great because he's freaking great and he made, you know, Ben.
- [57:20]
Dan Schneier
I think he's great because he's great. But I don't think, I think, don't think those two things are mutually exclusive. I think from watching that system as much as I've watched it, that is designed to create those opportunities for that slot roll.
- [57:31]
Jamie Eisenberg
Well, that was my point. Like if he doesn't matter Jameson Williams role, he's not Jameson Williams. He's. He's much better as, as a receiver, which will be much better as a fantasy option than Jameson Williams. He'll get more targets than Jameson Williams. You may not have as many big plays as Jameson Williams. Clearly he's not as explosive but, but he still has the opportunity to be a difference maker even if he's not in the slot. So I think you're, you know, we're all sort of saying the same thing.
- [57:53]
Adam Azer
Yeah. All right. And then finally Juwan Jennings. I gotta tell you something about Juwan Jennings, man. We've talked about him a lot. Talked about the 49ers receivers a lot. I spent like, I don't know, hour and a half on Juwan Jennings trying to look through some numbers splits with this guy on the field, with that guy on the field. Without this guy, I've gotten almost nowhere because they are going to be a lot different next year, right? I mean, they don't have Debo, they don't have IU now. He had that big week three game where he scored about 45 fantasy points. There was no Debo, there was no Kittle in that game. He had a half in week 18 where he had 10 targets. Josh Dobbs is in that game. No Debo. Josh Dobbs throwing him a ton. I, I don't know that I really learned much about Juanjan. He's still a bit of a mystery to me. But I will say this about Jennings. He's not that young. He's going to be 28. Not that he's old but he's going to be 28 in July. He's going into his fifth season. He was a seventh round draft pick compared to maybe Ricky Piersall who's going into his second season was a first round draft pick. I don't know that I could take Jennings over Pierce all but I still don't know. I'm curious to hear a case for Jennings because you like him better than Pierce all so go ahead Dan.
- [59:03]
Dan Schneier
Yeah, I like him late years better than Pierce all even though and loved Pierce all coming out of the draft and I think part of why I love Jennings looking at the price tag, it's really unexplainable right now where in my mind where he's going in drafts given the health situation of Brandon IU and the loss of Debo Samuel and kind of in my mind at least the uncertainty of Ricky Pearsall within this offense. Sure he's talented player out of Florida. I like this tape a lot. But he has not had a massive role in this offense. You know who has had a massive role in this offense? Juwan Jennings. Last year he made our beyond the Box Score midweek show Jacob and I almost every week for his yards per out run and his targets per route run. He runs that out route that they love to run and those in breakers, those middle of the field in breakers and out routes that are basically the staple of the Shannon system. Like Ayuk used to run him when Iuk was healthy. Thibaut never used to run him and that rapport that they have. Purdy and Jennings is by far best of the current crop receivers. Assuming Ayuk is not fully healthy now, I will put things into different perspective. We'll see what happens there. I'm still kind of skeptical of will he be on the team and will he be healthy. I'm operating under the guise of I'm not sure on either of those two things. As far as Jenning goes though, the numbers all look really good behind the, you know, what do they call it under the hood when you look at kind of yards for outrun things of that nature. Yeah, I think he runs.
- [60:16]
Adam Azer
When you look at yards per catch and yards per target, it's very pedestrian. But if, if we do like you're.
- [60:20]
Dan Schneier
Talking about yards per route, we like.
- [60:22]
Adam Azer
Yards per outrun better. He was 15th best I think among 89 receivers with 50 or more.
- [60:28]
Dan Schneier
And what's the price tag we're paying for him?
- [60:29]
Adam Azer
So he's been about eight bounce around a seventh bit round pick.
- [60:33]
Dan Schneier
You know Crazy to me for a potential number one target maybe, but how.
- [60:37]
Adam Azer
Many targets is that? Right, because like that, that had been.
- [60:41]
Dan Schneier
Drafting Ayuk and Debo in rounds two and three when they were healthy. In this offense, we know this is an offense that's going to score a lot. It's going to move the ball for a lot of yards.
- [60:48]
Adam Azer
Debo ran the ball a lot. Jennings isn't going to do that IUK to me last year I thought even before the holdout I had no interest in him because he had this huge year in 2023. But he did it on like 120 targets or something.
- [61:03]
Dan Schneier
Yes.
- [61:03]
Adam Azer
Right. So that's an offense. Yeah, no, it is very efficient, but it's not going to be great in PPR. So Jennings was on pace for something like 134 targets after the IUK injury. I can get you that exact number. He was on. No, he was on pace for 98 catches, 1079 yards, six touchdowns on 145 targets. But in that stretch he was only wide receiver 29 per game. So he wasn't really like that Great. And I can get into that in a little bit because I had been talking about that, Jamie, like the end of the season wasn't so great for Jennings. But I do think I can make some excuses now. It's one thing I did learn this morning. But let me go to Jamie, your thoughts on Jennings. Are you feeling it like. Like Dan is?
- [61:48]
Jamie Eisenberg
I want to leave my draft if possible with one of Jennings or Pearsall. And the one thing that I'll disagree with Dan in terms of, we haven't seen it from Pierce. All the last two games were pretty special. Yeah, not with Brock Purdy per se, but we did see, I think the upside of what Pearsall has to offer. So to your point, Adam, in terms of, you know, pedigree, you know, Ricky Pearsall may be featured in this offense. The only thing I think that's still keeping Jennings as the potential number one is Dan's point of him having been experienced in this offense. And they also paid him, you know, so it's not like we're just looking at a guy that's, you know, sort of playing out the string here until they find a replacement. You know, I think they're probably comfortable waiting out at you knowing that they have not just Jennings and Pearsall, but also McCaffrey coming back, hopefully 100 and clearly George Kittle. So, you know, when all those things are working together, does Jennings have the high end upside to be drafted or worth drafting higher than, you know, the round six, seven range. I have them back to back in terms of Jennings and Pierce all right now as sort of low end number three receivers based on rankings. But to me that's, you know, almost borderline number two receivers, you know, just based on how many good receivers there are in the NFL. So I don't, I don't, you know, think that they can't go into your season as starters, even a two receiver league. I prefer to have them as starters and three receiver leagues with a flex. But I think they both have an opportunity here to be, you know, pretty solid options. Knowing that, that to your point, we were drafting, you know, Debo and Iuk very high. Debo's gone. Iuk may not be ready to start the season. There's the wild card of what happens, you know, if Ayuk is ready to go and you know, do they sort of still view him or force the ball to him to whatever extent as the number one wide receiver. Kittle is obviously going to get fed and we know what he's been like whenever, whenever Samuel or Ayuk has been missing. So he could have a monster season and hopefully if McCaffrey's healthy, you know, we're still talking about a 60 plus catch got, you know, running back out of the backfield. So that's going to take away from everybody. But. But I think there's just so much opportunity here for both of these guys. Again, they have a lot of draft capital, you know, to spend on, you know, still adding to this receiving core. I would love it for Jennings and Pearsall if they traded Ayuk, you know, so that's still potentially, you know, out there if a team wants to take on that contract for a guy coming off an ACL tear. So we'll see. But the upside for those two guys I think is, is pretty special knowing that this is still going to be a good offense. Brock party's gonna lean on these two guys and their roles could really be defined, you know, whether Ayuka is gone or, you know, maybe out for the first month, month and half the season.
- [64:18]
Adam Azer
Yeah, you talk about the last two games for Piersall and I just want to give a little bit of context. So week 17 was that shootout. San Francisco, Detroit and amazing game for fantasy unless you had Juwan Jennings. Pierce hall had eight catches, 141 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. He had scored 28.7 fantasy points. Week 18 he scored 18.9 fantasy points at Arizona. Pearsall had six catches, 69 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. But in the the first half of the game Ricky Pierasol had three targets, Juwan Jennings had eight and I would. No, Juan Jennings had 10. Now Dobbs is the quarterback but also Jennings. One of one of Pearsall's targets was his touchdown. It came with 21 seconds left in the half and Jennings had already been ejected at that point. So like when Jennings had not been ejected, I'm pretty sure the targets were 10 to 2 in favor of Jennings. Jennings, I take almost nothing out of that because again Purdy wasn't even playing, Debo wasn't playing.
- [65:13]
Jamie Eisenberg
But I think just, just to put things in context, you keep saying Dobbs for Jennings. They played together.
- [65:19]
Adam Azer
Yeah.
- [65:19]
Jamie Eisenberg
In college. So people know.
- [65:20]
Adam Azer
Yeah. Even at the very end of the Detroit game when Purdy got hurt, I think they made three or four targets for, for Jennings on that drive if I remember correctly. But so for Jennings I. You gets hurt. I think in week seven, maybe week eight, the next, the next week, Jennings doesn't play. Then they have a buy and then Jennings comes back. He starts off with two huge games. Weeks 10 and 11. 91 or more yards, 11 targets in. In both games. In his last seven games Juwan Jennings had more than 67 yards in only one of his last seven games. And this had always been bothering me so I kind of looked into it. What happened here? So one of the games got ejected at halftime. We talked about that. That one game Brock Purdy missed and Brandon Allen threw for 94 yards. So I'm not going to hold that game against him. One game was the Buffalo game which was one of the worst weather games of the year. I'm not going to hold that one against him. The Miami game, Brock purdy threw for 142 yards.
- [66:20]
Dan Schneier
Wild Liaiser status.
- [66:22]
Adam Azer
Purdy had a horrible game against Miami. 142 yards on 31 pass attempts. The two games that stand out. No, no, no, no. It was the Rams game, the Rams game that he was terrible. The Miami game, in the Detroit game. I don't know what happened there. Like Purdy threw for almost 700 yards in those two games and five touchdowns and Jennings just didn't do anything.
- [66:41]
Jamie Eisenberg
But this is the offense though. This is the 49ers offense.
- [66:44]
Adam Azer
They didn't even have McCaffrey.
- [66:46]
Jamie Eisenberg
But, but, but that's the thing though. It could be a three touchdown kiddle game as we've seen in the past. Like you know, that's the type of offense that it is, you know, we could see, you know, it be a. A two touchdown game for Pierce all and Jennings has, you know, 4 for 48 and you know, 4 for 68, you know, and solid day for an NFL receiver. Just not a great fantasy day, you know. So that's just the nature of how this 49ers offense tends to operate when it's working.
- [67:09]
Adam Azer
Yeah. But the other point is like we have all these targets but they didn't throw to their running backs last year. McCaffrey is going to take a lot of those targets away. So it's up to. I hope so. I mean they Only threw for 23 touchdowns last year. They threw 33 the year before.
- [67:27]
Jamie Eisenberg
So that I think comes into play with again the offense being more efficient and better and maybe not the target volume that we look for, but the Ayuk type season, you know, you're still getting excellent production and more yak which was gone from their offense last year for almost everybody.
- [67:43]
Adam Azer
Yeah.
- [67:43]
Jamie Eisenberg
And that comes back because defenses have to play them differently because the run game is.
- [67:47]
Adam Azer
Well, they threw the ball downfield a lot more like a lot higher adot less yak. Still very efficient. I think they'll look they last three years with Purdy. Purdy basically started half the season 2022. They've been sixth in scoring, third in scoring and 14th in scoring. If you had a guess, are they going to be closer to 6th or 14th?
- [68:07]
Dan Schneier
6Th.
- [68:08]
Adam Azer
Right.
- [68:08]
Jamie Eisenberg
6.
- [68:08]
Adam Azer
Right.
- [68:09]
Jamie Eisenberg
Especially if Trent Williams get a piece of the offense.
- [68:11]
Adam Azer
I just, I haven't quite figured out who it is for me yet.
- [68:13]
Jamie Eisenberg
But that's the thing. It's like right now, you know, you're doing, you know, best ball drafts are going on. You know, you're, you're, you're making trades like you want. Want these two receivers.
- [68:22]
Adam Azer
Yeah.
- [68:23]
Jamie Eisenberg
Because barring something crazy, they're going to get opportunities. Ayuk gone hurt. No Debo like they're, they're guys you know right now Jennings again contract enough to keep him on the roster and, and in a. In a prominent role whether he's the two with the three or the one. Pierce all same thing. You know, it's just a matter of will they run more three receiver sets or just keep it sort of top two with those two guys.
- [68:47]
Adam Azer
All right, we're going to end with this comment from Michael. He said Dan kind of looks like a mini Luca. So let's take a look at the split screen here and take the comment out. I think it's a great call. Dan Schneier Luca Doncho.
- [69:07]
Dan Schneier
I'll take it. I will take it.
- [69:09]
Adam Azer
Yeah, man. All right. Okay. Well, thank you.
- [69:13]
Jamie Eisenberg
Let's get rid of Dan Kich. Luca. Dan Kitch.
- [69:16]
Dan Schneier
There we go.
- [69:17]
Adam Azer
Love it.
- [69:18]
Jamie Eisenberg
It.
- [69:18]
Dan Schneier
The new nickname.
- [69:19]
Jamie Eisenberg
Just, just, just a little peek behind the curtain. We had to do some, some time moving because of Thomas's schedule and Dan's construction, and Dan said, don't worry, it'll be a short show.
- [69:31]
Adam Azer
Yeah, exactly.
- [69:32]
Jamie Eisenberg
The longest show we've had since the season.
- [69:34]
Adam Azer
I replied with lol. Not your fault, though. We got in some good, good discussions here and we did, you know, like this good Russell Wilson film review.
- [69:44]
Dan Schneier
So we had cross.
- [69:46]
Adam Azer
Thank you. We'll talk to you tomorrow with a mailbag on fantasy football. Paramount Podcasts the college football conversation never stops. And that's why it doesn't matter whether it's spring practice, the NFL draft, or the transfer portal, the only place that can have you locked down from sideline to Sideline is the COVID 3 podcast. I'm Chip Patterson with an exclusive invitation to join me, Tom Fornelli, Danny Cannell, and Bud Elliott. Three times a week as we, like the players and coaches, begin the work for the 2025 season. That means the biggest position battles in spring practice, the ins and outs of the transfer portal spring window, and our scouting reports on the stars that are headed off to the NFL draft. Don't fall behind the chains on your college football coverage. Download and follow the COVID 3 podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and anywhere podcasts are found.