Four Rankings Debates! ARSB vs. Nico, AJ Brown vs. Drake London and More (03/24 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Four Rankings Debates! ARSB vs. Nico, AJ Brown vs. Drake London and More

Release Date: March 24, 2025
Host: Adam Aizer
Analysts: Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and more
Platform: CBS Sports

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1. Introduction to Rankings Disputes

[02:57] Adam Aizer:
"After the races, and he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie, and Heath. It's time for a rankings fight. Four rankings disputes."

Adam introduces the episode by highlighting four key rankings disputes among wide receivers, setting the stage for in-depth discussions.

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2. Nico Collins vs. Aman Ross St. Brown

[10:00] Heath Cummings:
"If you hit two home runs with my first two receivers in the three-receiver league, I'm probably going to take Chris Olave to try and see if I hit three home runs. But if I don't have the best two picks at wide receiver because I just missed out on a guy or went running back, running back, and now I don't have the receivers that I like, well, Chris, then, then it depends again how you draft."

Heath emphasizes the importance of consistency and target volume, favoring Aman Ross St. Brown for his steady PPR points over Nico Collins, who he believes has higher upside but less consistency.

[18:33] Adam Aizer:
"He's arguably the best wide receiver in football in terms of yards per route run, those types of things. The metrics are absolutely eye-popping. He is unbelievable and he's not on this low pass volume team."

Adam argues for Nico Collins, highlighting his efficiency and potential to be a top-tier receiver if given sufficient targets.

Conclusion: The debate hinges on whether consistency or upside is more valuable. St. Brown offers reliable points, while Collins presents a higher ceiling depending on his usage.

---

3. A.J. Brown vs. Drake London

[26:26] Heath Cummings:
"In full PPR, I will lean toward London because I think he'll get more targets. And you mentioned it, there is a little bit more upside I would say with London based on the target volume and if the quarterback is better than what the Falcons had for most of last year, then London can certainly outperform."

Heath leans towards Drake London in full PPR formats due to his higher target volume and potential for touchdown opportunities, especially if the Falcons adopt a more pass-heavy approach.

[27:44] Adam Aizer:
"A.J. Brown has also led the NFL in that stat. He did it in 2022. ... AJ Brown is a truly elite alpha wide receiver. And even last year, which wasn't a great year for him, he still averaged more fantasy points per game just barely."

Adam prefers A.J. Brown, citing his elite performance and higher upside, particularly in scenarios where the Eagles focus more on the passing game.

Conclusion: The choice between Brown and London depends on league format and team dynamics. Brown offers higher individual talent and upside, while London provides consistency through volume.

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4. Chris Olave vs. Devonte Smith

[34:29] Heath Cummings:
"...Devonte Smith has given me some consistency. ... Devonte Smith is a safer route because there'll be some games where A.J. Brown or Dallas Goddard or as we saw last year, both of them miss, then Devonte Smith has top five upside when those guys are there."

Heath favors Devonte Smith for his consistent performance within his offense, despite some inconsistencies in target distribution.

[37:45] Dave Richard:
"...Chris Olave has the opportunity and the ability to be a top 15 caliber wide receiver, but it just has been small sample sizes of that. So if I hit two home runs with my first two receivers in the three-receiver league, I'm probably going to take Chris Olave to try and see if I hit three home runs."

Dave acknowledges Olave's higher ceiling but notes the limited sample size of his standout performances, making Smith the safer pick.

Conclusion: Devonte Smith is preferred for his reliability and established role, whereas Chris Olave is considered a higher-risk, higher-reward option with potential to break into the top tier.

---

5. Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Jameson Williams

[44:07] Dave Richard:
"...Jameson can disappear at times, you know, so I just like the upside of what Marvin Harrison will hopefully be."

Dave expresses confidence in Marvin Harrison Jr.'s potential to become the alpha receiver in his offense, offering more upside compared to Jameson Williams, who has shown flashes but lacks consistency.

[47:47] Adam Aizer:
"...I do feel like Nico is better than St. Brown, even though St. Brown is great. I mean, I feel I just love Nico. I don't know. Jameson might be better. Like, Jameson's really, really good."

Adam remains split but leans towards Harrison due to the potential for a breakout season and improved chemistry with his quarterback.

Conclusion: Marvin Harrison Jr. is favored for his potential development and role within the Cardinals’ offense, while Jameson Williams is seen as a dynamic but inconsistent player.

---

6. Giants Quarterback Situation

[07:10] Heath Cummings:
"The take is I'm assuming that Jameis is going to be like an in-season bridge quarterback for them and that they will take a rookie quarterback in the draft. ... But whoever the rookie quarterback is, I think will end up playing more and that'll be the quarterback that we'll want to adjust our rankings to when it comes to Neighbors."

Heath discusses the Giants’ strategy of signing Jameis Winston as a temporary solution while potentially drafting a rookie quarterback to take over. He emphasizes that Malik Neighbors remains a promising wide receiver regardless of the QB situation.

[10:00] Heath Cummings:
"But just to the point of your stat. Adam, I would be shocked if he's the only quarterback for the Giants this year because if that's what happens then Joe Shane and Brian Dable can call u haul right now."

Heath speculates that Winston will not be the sole quarterback for the season, suggesting the Giants will explore other options to secure long-term stability.

Conclusion: The Giants are using Jameis Winston as a bridge quarterback while planning to draft a rookie to secure their QB future, keeping wide receiver Malik Neighbors in their fantasy evaluations.

---

7. Bracket Challenge and Miscellaneous Discussions

Throughout the episode, the hosts share updates on their bracket challenge standings and engage in lighthearted banter about their rankings. They also touch on team strategies, player performances, and offseason moves affecting player values.

Notable Quote:

[49:18] Adam Aizer:
"Jamie is in 1300 in first place because he forgot to hit submit. That's not good."

This humorous moment highlights the competitive nature of their bracket challenge among the hosts.

---

8. Final Thoughts and Takeaways

By the end of the episode, the hosts have delved deep into their wide receiver rankings, weighing consistency against potential upside across multiple players. They emphasize the importance of understanding team dynamics, offensive schemes, and individual player roles to make informed fantasy football decisions.

Key Takeaways:

• Consistency vs. Upside: Choosing between reliable producers and high-ceiling players is a recurring theme.
• Team Dynamics: Player value is heavily influenced by team strategies, quarterback performance, and offensive line quality.
• Injury Impact: Past injuries and their effects on player performance are crucial in evaluating future potential.
• League Formats: Player rankings can vary significantly based on league settings, such as PPR versus non-PPR.

The episode provides Fantasy Football enthusiasts with comprehensive insights and nuanced debates to refine their own rankings and strategies for the upcoming season.

Transcript

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[Jamie]

This is Fantasy Football today from CBS Sports.

[Dave]

What a play.

[Adam]

Can you believe this?

[Dave]

No, I can't.

[Jamie]

It's time to dominate your fantasy league.

[Adam]

After the races. And he stays at his feet. This is gonna go the distance. Now here's some combination of Adam, Dave, Jamie and Heath. It's time for a rankings fight. Four rankings disputes. I looked at Dave's rankings. I said, nope, don't agree with you there, my friend. Except I didn't call him a friend. I just said the nasty things that we're gonna.

[Heath]

You said some really terrible things, and I, for one, am very offended.

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Adam]

So we got four rankings disputes, then Jamie's gonna weigh in, see what side he's on. Nico Collins vs. Aman Ross. St. Brown. Chris Olave vs. Devonte Smith. A.J. brown vs. Drake London. Marvin Harrison Jr. Vs. Jameson Williams. I did not intend for these to be 4 wide receiver rankings disputes, but that's how it worked out. Hey, how those bra. How those brackets looking, guys?

[Dave]

It's a great tournament so far. Love it.

[Heath]

You know, I thought that I had jinxed Florida when I. When I said before the tournament that they were, like, the only team that I knew anything about, and I didn't mean to jinx them. I really am impressed by them. And then when they got off to the slow start in their second game, I was like, oh, no, the jinx is real. But alas, they came through, and they are still my pick to win the whole thing.

[Adam]

Florida. That's great, Dave. I was ready. I. I picked UConn to beat them, but that was a pure hate pick. It almost worked out. You guys know Will Lutz, right? Kicker, Personally?

[Heath]

Oh, no.

[Adam]

Well, he is actually in first place in the Fantasy Football Today bracket challenge.

[Heath]

Oh, no kidding?

[Dave]

Wow.

[Adam]

Well, it's a guy named Willie Lutz.

[Dave]

It's probably not kicking the competitions.

[Adam]

Yeah, it's not him, but it's somebody named Willie Lutz who is in first place with 56 points. He's gotten 42 picks. Right. That is amazing. Congratulations.

[Dave]

It was one L or two in his first name.

[Adam]

Two L's and an IE at the end.

[Heath]

And Lutz is L, U, T, Z. Yeah, it might be Will Lutz it could be.

[Adam]

You never know. He picked Duke.

[Dave]

So I was at a restaurant over the weekend with Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett. You never know.

[Adam]

You were like.

[Heath]

You were eating with them.

[Dave]

I wasn't eating with them. I mean, I saw them at another table.

[Adam]

You recognize together? You recognize them?

[Dave]

Yeah.

[Heath]

I mean, Pickett, I imagine, had a backwards hat on with long hair.

[Dave]

He did have long hair, but, yeah. No hat, I'd say.

[Heath]

And anytime anybody got near Trubisky, he kind of, like, went like this and like. Coward in the fetal position.

[Dave]

No, they were. They were.

[Adam]

I might recognize Trubisky. I don't think there's a. There's a chance I'd recognize Kenny Pickett. Good for you, Jamie.

[Heath]

Okay, jb, let's get a picture of three random quarterbacks and see if Azer can tell which one is Kenny Pickett.

[Dave]

A pitcher of water or a pitcher on the mound.

[Heath]

Shut up.

[Adam]

All right, listen, speaking of quarterbacks, the Giants signed Jameis Winston, so we're going to talk about that. Just a moment. Yeah, anyway, we're gonna talk about that in a moment here. I want to remind everybody, one team.

[Heath]

In the world, they're gonna be great for, like, four games.

[Adam]

I don't know who tweeted it, but someone had a really funny tweet about the Giants drafting Travis Hunter because he can catch all of Jameis's good passes and intercept all his bad passes.

[Heath]

Yeah. Hit tackle on all of his interceptions. Matt Harmon had the tweet of the year, though. He. He, he. I can't remember when he sent it out. I think it was during last season.

[Adam]

It was after they beat the Colts. Yeah, right.

[Heath]

Like this. This win over the Colts is going to help them not get one of the top quarterbacks. And they're going to get Jamison. Malik Neighbors is going to get 2,000 yards.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

And if they do not get another quarterback, I believe it, but I think they're going to get another quarterback.

[Adam]

2,000 yards. I'll take the under, but I know what you're saying. Watch CBS Sports hq. It is the best way to stay up to date on everything going on right now. March Madness, NBA playoff race, NHL playoff race, etc. Golf. Big time. You know, for golf right now. So watch CBS Sports HQ on the CBS Sports app. All right, let's get to those news and notes, and then we'll do the rankings dispute. So the Giants, apparently, they still could sign Russell Wilson. Obviously, they got the third pick in the draft. They could draft the quarterback. But they did sign Jameis Winston to a two year, $8 million deal. All right, so Dave, what's your take here on the Giants quarterback situation?

[Heath]

The take is I'm assuming that Jameis is going to be like an in season bridge quarterback for them and that they will take a rookie quarterback in the draft. I don't know if it'll be in round one or round two, but we will get Jameis maybe for four games, five games. If the quarterback they get stinks, then maybe we'll get them for more. But obviously we've got this long track record of Jameis Winston finding the receiver that he loves, throwing to him a ton, not caring about turnovers, just going ham. And the end result is that the receiver does exceptionally well. Last year's example, there were two. It was Jerry Judy and then David Najoku. When Ninjoku was healthy, he had some good games with Jamis as well. So I am very optimistic that for the games Jamis starts, Malik Neighbors will deliver, maybe even over deliver to our expectations. But whoever the rookie quarterback is, I think will end up playing more and that'll be the quarterback that we'll want to adjust our rankings to when it comes to Neighbors. And you know, all those other great wide receivers for the Giants, Darius Slayton, Theo Johnson at tight end. Who else do they have?

[Adam]

Wondale, Robinson.

[Heath]

We always forget about Wondale. Yeah, he'll stink with Jamis because he doesn't run routes too far downfield.

[Dave]

Neighbors is wide receiver four for me right now.

[Heath]

Same.

[Adam]

Yeah. So the giants, the last three years, they've thrown for between 3,350 and 3,520 yards. So let's just say like 33,450 yards on average the last three years. James Winston, his 17 game pace, I got him at seven seasons with six or more starts. 17 game pace, I'll just round up or down. 4,300, 4,350. 5,200. 5,000, 5,400, 3,100. One year with the Saints, he made six starts. He threw 25 times a game. And then last year with the Browns, I think it was seven starts, 49, 50. Like this guy routinely throws for around 5,000 yards per 17 games. It's insane.

[Dave]

If he, if he is the week one starter, like guaranteed, by the time we're doing fantasy drafts, he will be a late round pick for almost everybody in. One quarterback.

[Adam]

Yeah, because he's been about a low end, like, you know, top 15 kind of quarterback. One year he was top five overall, I think per game. Yeah.

[Heath]

He can lose your weeks too though.

[Adam]

Yeah, he can.

[Heath]

He can have a touchdown three pick week.

[Dave]

I'm not saying you want to go into your season with him as your starter, but if he's your backup, that's the type of guy that you can get some value for if you don't have a guaranteed bonafide starter that you like.

[Heath]

But just to the point of your stat. Adam, I would be shocked if he's the only quarterback for the Giants this year because if that's what happens then Joe Shane and Brian Dable can call u haul right now. I think there's a very realistic move on. They're not going to be there next year.

[Adam]

Look, I think, look, if they get Cam Ward then I don't know that Winston's going to play at all. But if they don't and it doesn't seem like right now it seems like Titans are going to stay put and take them. Right? Like I think so.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

It's kind of what it's looking like.

[Heath]

Yeah.

[Adam]

I don't think there's another quarterback in this draft that that necessarily should play ahead of Jameis Winston. I mean, maybe Sanders, but you know how I feel about him. And then Dart, I don't know. So it's not as unrealistic as it looks. And DeVito doesn't throw interceptions, but he doesn't throw anything, so he doesn't do anything. So it's not as unrealistic right now as it might seem. Two years, $8 million. It's obviously backup money, but he might be their best bet. Unfortunately, it's just.

[Heath]

That's worse than backup.

[Dave]

Let him start.

[Heath]

Yeah, let him start. But if he, if he's playing every week, then something very bad has happened to the rookie that they draft.

[Adam]

And I would say his best format, Jameis Winston's best format, if you happen to play in this format, would probably be a four point per passing touchdown league with negative one for interceptions or zero. Well, yeah, I mean I'm talking about like a realistic format here but because it's usually either six points and minus two or four points and minus one or four points of minus two in four point per passing touchdown, minus one for the interception. He was QB10 per game during his starts last year in six point per passing touchdown leagues with two points down for an interception, he was QB14 per game. It's a huge difference. So just something to keep in mind. Pittsburgh seems like they have a good chance to sign Aaron Rodgers. That seems like his most Likely destination at this point. I'm going to wait till something happens before we react to that. The Brown signed former Bears guard Tevin Jenkins. The Chargers signed Tyler Conklin to a one year, $3 million deal. By the way, Jenkins could be a good player. He's been very injured, but he could be a pretty good player when he's healthy. But does anybody care about Tyler Conklin to the Chargers or Brandon Cooks to the Saints or. Or Michael Gallup to the Commanders?

[Dave]

Conklin's interesting. I mean, look at what Will Disley did last year with this team. You know, so Conklin's had some good moments with the jets and even with the Vikings. And so we could see him as a streamer, you know, depending on how the rest of the off season goes for Los Angeles. But this is an offense that likes to use its tight ends. Quarterback that likes to use his tight end, you know, can, you know, go back to just again, what Will Disley did last year and, and he was somebody that was a low end starter for those weeks when he was, you know, involved and even. What was his name?

[Heath]

Stone Smart.

[Dave]

Stone Smart, Yeah. I knew it was something interesting. Stone Smart, you know, so we, we can, we, we can look at this. Not somebody you want to draft, but someone to keep an eye on.

[Heath]

And Brandon Cooks is interesting, too. It's almost the same thing as Conklin. I, I don't think anybody's going to draft Brandon Cooks. Maybe in deeper three receiver leagues, you'll take him to ride your bench. He'll have some boomer bust weeks. But we're going to talk about the Saints offense today. I'm not sure that I'm like crazy in love with their passing game like some of us might have been before.

[Dave]

This hurts. Rashid Shahid.

[Adam]

Yeah, isn't he.

[Heath]

I mean, you made the argument. It'll hurt Olave a little bit. It'll hurt their tight ends a little bit.

[Dave]

I mean, it's gonna hurt, I think, all through all, you know, everybody. But it's still, you know, look, he's following his offense coordinator, you know, so. Or a guy, a guy that he has had some time with, I think.

[Adam]

It could be completely irrelevant. This guy had 54 targets, 26 catches in 10 games. He's 30. He'll be 32 years old in September. He just might not matter at all. Brandon Cooks, he hasn't been a good receiver for a long time at this point. Three straight years, less than 700 years. I mean, okay. Yards per game, 53.8 41.1, 25.9. I don't know. It's certainly possible that he's just at the end of his career and he's.

[Dave]

Definitely at the end of his career. But you know, it's this is fantasy versus reality. You know, he's going to just be a pain in the butt for, you know, the other guys that are there.

[Adam]

I hope not because then it's gonna make my olave argument not so great. The Texans signed offensive tackle Cam Robinson to a one year deal, could be worth up to 14 and a half million dollars. They also signed offensive tackle Trent Brown to a one year deal that could be worth up to $3 million. So we know the Texans need some help. Maybe Cam Robinson is the replacement for Laramie Tunsil. Seems like that's probably a pretty big downgrade.

[Heath]

I think that's what they're going to go for and I don't think it's a great replacement, but it's passable.

[Adam]

All right, let's take a quick break and come back. We'll do our rankings disputes Nico Collins vs. Amon Ross St. Brown in full PPR after this.

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[Adam]

Okay Couple of elite wide receivers going to go in the first round Amon Ross St. Brown was wide receiver seven per game in full PPR last year. Nico Collins was number nine in full PPR last year. That does include a couple of partial games. He played only 18 of the snaps in week 18. He played like 13 of the snaps in week five. Nico Collins, you take away those two games, he was actually on pace for 156 targets and if he gets that could be wide receiver one in my opinion. So I'm going Nico Collins. Dave has Aman Ross St. Brown ahead of Nico Collins. I like Nico I It's going to be a pretty similar argument to what you're about to hear when we do AJ Brown vs Drake London if the targets are even close. I'm just I think it's going to be Nico. He is on paper looking at statistics it's going to might sound crazy. He's arguably the best wide receiver in football in terms of yards per route run, those types of things. The metrics are absolutely eye popping. He is unbelievable and he's not on this low pass volume team. The Texans, they have a new offensive coordinator so take that for what it's worth.

[Heath]

But two years it'll be the same scheme, just different guy calling the place.

[Adam]

Two years under to make Orions. They've been 12th with CJ Stroud 12th and past attempts I think both years, whereas the lions have been 9th and 16th. So maybe the past attempts will be similar. There's just no target competition. And another thing I'd say about Nico Collins is maybe I'm making an excuse for him, but his numbers before the hamstring injury in week five were absolutely unbelievable. He came back, he just wasn't as good. He wasn't bad, but he wasn't nearly as good. And I just think, you know, no Tank Dell, no Stefan Diggs or maybe a little bit of Tank Dell. You tell me getting 150 or more targets from Nico Collins and I am all over it. Whereas Jameson Williams emerging a little bit. Sam Laporte is a factor they at times last year were extremely run heavy Detroit. So that's why I'm going Nico over St. Brown.

[Heath]

And even though all those things did happen in Detroit, Amon Ross St. Brown averaged 1.1 more PPR points per game than Nico Collins. And then you're going to throw back. I mean well, Nico left a couple of games and that's why it happened. Maybe so, but we still started him for those games. I think they should count against.

[Adam]

I can't stay.

[Heath]

Absolutely.

[Adam]

They do count in the standings, Dave, but they don't count in terms of what does this guy do when he's healthy. That's what the whole point of it is.

[Heath]

Okay, fine. I'm still going to take the receipt. And this isn't me sliding Nico. It's not like I'm calling Nico a bus. They're two spots apart.

[Adam]

Nor is this me sliding St. Brown. No.

[Heath]

Yes it is. You hate him on Ross St. Brown. Everybody knows it. I can't wait to tell him. But Saint Brown consistency is going to be something that I'm going to lean on in off season rankings. 18.7 PPR points per game in 2024, 20.7 in 2023, 16.7 in 2022 with 18.2 in his last nine. This is a wide receiver that you can, you can use Inc for 18 plus PPR points per game with and Nico will be close to that. And I agree that Nico is the only show in town. Christian Kirk is not going to be a major threat to him. At least certainly not as anywhere near or more major I should say than what Stefan Diggs would have been if Diggs were healthy. Remember Diggs is a little bit older now but I, I think a Monroe St. Brown is just a little bit safer. I still think he's going to be the top target gainer in Detroit and I still view him as an elite fantasy receiver that I view both these guys as elite fantasy receivers. They both had over eight targets per game last year but St. Brown to me just has the consistency factor on his side.

[Adam]

All right, Jamie, what do you think?

[Dave]

I think this comes down to how you want to draft because they're both most likely going to be awesome. They're both most likely going to be if they stay healthy first round picks. But I do think that if Nico. I think you said, you both said it the way that I feel about both these guys. I think if they both have the same amount of targets, Nico Collins will be better. But I also think like Dave said it best, like there's there's the safety and consistency factor of Amara St. Brown. So if, if you are looking for, I think the higher ceiling, you're gonna probably lean toward Nico. If you're looking for just as high a ceiling, but maybe not the same heights, you know, if that makes sense, then Amara St. Brown is, is as Steady Eddie as you come. I remember writing this last year when I did the magazine story of the seven best wide receivers, the eight best wide receivers that we were looking at, the safest one by far was a Monroe St. Brown. And it's probably the same thing right now, you know. You know, once you get past Chase and Jefferson, you know, like you can make arguments against CD Lamb, you can make even Jefferson, you make arguments against because of JJ McCarthy, but you make arguments against CD Lamb, Puka Nakua, Nico Collins. You know, I mean there, there's, there's arguments against all these guys. There's very little arguments against Amara St. Brown. Yes, Jameson Williams may have a bigger role. Yes, there's an offense coordinator change. Yes, same report is there. So he did all this last year aside from the coordinator change. You know, he was, he was a part of the, the Jameson Williams explosion, if you want to call it that, you know, a breakout. It was part of Sam LaPorta's second half, you know, consistency. He said it was the run game at times. I mean, these are all things that he's dealt with the last two years. So for me right now, I still lean them on Ross St. Brown. They are back to back. Depending on what the rest of the, the Texans off season looks like. I may go Nico Collins, because that's just the way I tend to draft is. I'm looking for a little bit more upside. So I think again, if Nico and Amara St. Brown have the same amount of opportunities, Nico will be a little bit better.

[Adam]

Yeah. Oh, I don't even think it'll be close. It won't be close in terms of yards. I mean that's the thing. Two of the last three years, Amon Ross St. Brown's been like a 1250 yard kind of guy per 17 games. 20, 22. He really busted out. How many yards did he have that season, Dave? He had like 1500 yards or something, right?

[Heath]

I'd have to look it up.

[Adam]

20, 23. Sorry. Yeah, he was on pace for 1600 yards. So if he can be that kind of player then, then it's close. If he's more like the 1300 yard guy per 17 games or last year he was 1263, that's where I see the edge for Nico Collins is in yards and. And I don't. And even though I'm honestly, Brown is very safe, I also think Nico Collins is extremely safe. You know, I don't. I don't really see a downside argument for Nico, do you?

[Dave]

No, but it's. Again, there, there. There's a track record here of what Amara St. Brown has done. You know, you could say, you know, Nico had. Just doesn't have the same resume.

[Heath]

Oh, I think it's incredible that Nico had 17.6 PPR points per game last year, given all the issues in Houston, the offensive line being bad, CJ Stroud not taking a step forward in his second year. They didn't play many games for both Tankdale and Stefan Diggs were healthy, but there were a majority where one of the two were on the field, and he still came through for pretty good numbers. If you're gonna nitpick with Nico and say, well, the offensive line might still be a problem and Stroud might not be better, well, okay, what does that mean? Does that mean he's going to be at like 16.55? Is that going to be what his floor is going to be? I don't think. I think people would be a little disappointed if they took Nico in round one and that's what he ended up doing. And I think a Monroe St. Brown could certainly best that number, but that's still pretty good for a fantasy contributor. So I don't think. I don't think there's a legitimate downside case for either of these wide receivers.

[Adam]

All right, let's go to. Our next one is A.J. brown versus Drake London. They are back to back in Dave's rankings. This was one where I kind of. I may have changed my mind while I was doing the research because it's. I think it's actually easier to make a case for Drake London than AJ Brown in full ppr. However, I'll go ahead and play devil's advocate. I will take A.J. i don't know if it's not really a devil's advocate, but I'll take AJ Brown over Drake London. And here's why. I just think he's so much better than Drake London, which again, is not a slight to Drake London, but AJ Brown is another guy. If he were in A. If A.J. brown were on the Vikings, he'd be unstoppable. I could see him going for like 1800 yards and 13 touchdowns. He's that good of a player. The only thing that holds him back is low pass volume. We're not seeing that from Drake London what we're seeing from Drake London is like a nice solid player. He doesn't make a lot of big plays. He's. I talked about his yak so much last year. It was a little bit better but still pretty bad last year. He just doesn't do a lot after catching the ball. So I think he'll get more targets than AJ Brown. I think he's going to need probably 20 more targets than AJ Brown to be better than AJ Brown and I expect the Eagles to pass a lot more. Fun fact, not, not more than the Falcons, but more than they did last year. Fun fact these two teams, believe it or not, even though the Falcons threw the ball a decent amount, these two teams were last in the NFL in green zone pass rate last year. The Falcons, oddly enough, they just became became super run heavy when they got inside the 10 yard line. Drake London led the NFL with an unbelievable rate of like of percentage of his team's targets in the green zone. He had over 50%. He had like 54% of his team's targets in the green zone. That was number one in the NFL.

[Dave]

A.J.

[Adam]

Brown has also led the NFL in that stat. He did it in 2022. But anyway, if the Falcons throw the ball more they become a better passing touchdown team, then we've got huge upside for London. So I did find it kind of easy to make the case for London. But I'm going to stick with A.J. brown, Dave, just because I think he is a superior player. He is a truly elite alpha wide receiver. And even last year, which wasn't a great year for him, he still averaged more fantasy points per game just barely.

[Heath]

Than Drake London in PPR 16.7 to 16.5. You're right and that's with Drake London having nearly two targets per game more than AJ Brown. But if I multiply two targets per game by 17 games. Adam, you said it that if, if Drake London's getting 20 more targets over the course of a season than AJ Brown, he's going to be better in full PPR. And this is absolutely format dependent half PPR, non PPR. I'm making a beeline to AJB. But Drake London with with Pennix throwing to him I, I think it's going to end up being a very good thing for him. I think he's going to be the trusted number one guy and I think he's going to continue to see high target volume. You are not drafting Drake London for his athleticism. You are drafting him for the passing volume. You are drafting him for the green zone target share like you talked about. Certainly that can lead to some good touchdown production. But if it's a league where catches don't count as much and big plays count more then AJ Brown's your guy. Completely format dependent between these two. But in full PPR I will lean toward London because I think he'll get more targets. And you mentioned it, there is a little bit more upside I would say with London based on the target volume and if the quarterback is better than what the Falcons had for most of last year then London can certainly outperform.

[Adam]

AJB I actually I don't know that I agree with the upside take. I still think Brown has more upside because if the Eagles can get back to passing for over 4, 000 last year they passed for about 3, 500 yards. The two years before that is like 4, 300 yards for 4,000 yards. Then I think A.J. brown has has more upside than London. But. But he probably has more downside too just because of the offense. But okay Jamie, what do you think? Brown or London?

[Dave]

They're back to back. So like both these guys a lot. But I, I lean Brown more sort more than London based on the upside. I do think that if Brown does what he's capable of doing then he's. He's top five upside. I don't think Drake London has that. I think what we saw from last, what we saw last season from Drake London is kind of his ceiling. And you know I'm a big Drake London guy from, from last year but I don't know how much better he can be just based on everything that's going on with this team, everything that's going on with him. We still don't know what the rest of this receiving core is going to look like because I think they add somebody in the draft. But in terms of the downside, if Pennock stinks like this could be bad for Drake London, you know there's a lower floor I think for, for what he can be like last year was kind of the floor I think for A.J. brown and I. I think we all kind of share the same sentiment like we expect the Eagles to be a little bit more pass happy simply because the run game I don't think will be as successful for what Saquon Barkley is coming off of. You know all the work, the, the history of 2000 yard rushers. You know there will be a step back here. So you especially if Barkley misses any time Then it's more on Jalen, hurts more on the passing game. And I think that favors A.J. brown's ceiling. I just think there's, there's a, another year that he can get to or Jake London can't.

[Heath]

So I think that that's an important direction that we could send this conversation to. If, if do we really, how much do we really believe that Saquon takes a big step back next year? Because if we're really buying into Saquon not being as efficient, maybe missing some time, you know, 28 year old running back coming off of 482 touches.

[Adam]

Wow.

[Heath]

Over the season, in the postseason. Yeah. Like if we really believe that, then I, I think that it's a no brainer that the Eagles will throw more and that would obviously help A.J.

[Adam]

Brown.

[Heath]

And now here I am playing devil's advocate the other way. I just quickly did this. Maybe I wish I had done this before I did my rankings. Remember how in week 18 Pennock started for Atlanta meaningless game. Mooney didn't play drake. London had 40.7 PPR points. If we, if we azer stat that game out, he averaged 15 PPR points per game flat. So I, I think if you do buy into London, I think you have to buy independence as well. And what if Penix pulls a stroud? You know, we'll, we'll learn about Pennix during the preseason and the lead up and what the reports are like coming out of Atlanta. But if we believe two things. One, Penix is in a lock to get better and two, Saquon Barkley is going to get worse and the Eagles are going to have to change their philosophy a little bit. Then this is a U turn. We should go with A.J. brown before Drake, London in all formats.

[Adam]

This is where Browns finished per game in three seasons with Philadelphia seventh per game in 2022. In both non and full 2023, he actually had 158 targets in 17 games. He was wide receiver 12 per game and non PPR. Wide receiver seven per game in full PPR. Only caught seven touchdowns in 2024. He was 10th per game in non and 13th per game in full PPR. Whereas London last year was I think wide receiver 14 per game in full PPR. And that was the question. You know, Jamie, you said maybe he hit his ceiling last year. That was kind of the question I had about London. Can he be better? I, I mean I think, I think he obviously can if Pennix has, you know, a really good season. But also that stat about them being so Run heavy. The lowest pass rate in the green zone. So weird. And the second fewest green zone pass attempts, which was. Which it was just. I don't really get that imbalance but I mean obviously get the ball to Bijan, I get that, but it was just. I don't know, I just thought maybe there was a chance for more touchdown opportunities for him. But that being said, he did catch nine touchdowns last year. It's not like he had a bad touchdown year.

[Dave]

Do we know how many of them.

[Heath]

Were like longer than 20 yards?

[Adam]

No, but probably not that many.

[Heath]

That's what I'm saying. Like I'm, I'm starting to really. I'm changing my mind as we sit here.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

You know, so I don't like doing that. I'm sorry that I'm doing that, but it's kind of how I'm feeling.

[Dave]

I think the thing with, with London is it's just a wild card. If Penix is awesome, then London will benefit in a huge way and probably be better than A.J. brown. But it's, it's. Again, it's a wild card. I, I think what you saw from London last year is probably, I don't say easy to replicate, but it's some. Something I think that can be done again, like AJ Brown's just been so solid and still in his prime and again, you know, it depends on how you view what the Eagles offense will look like next year.

[Adam]

All right, let's get to our next one here real quick.

[Heath]

London's longest touchdown last year was from 30 yards out. It was a deep ball from Cousins against the Raiders in week 15. All of his other a touchdown from 21 yards out. From 20 yards out. Everything else was in the red zone.

[Dave]

I'm sorry, Jim Cousins played in Week 15.

[Heath]

He did.

[Adam]

That was his last game. He got benched that game. I think. Or I don't. He threw like 17 passes that game.

[Heath]

And four touchdowns inside the 10 for Drake London last year. So the two stats that again, I wish I'd seen this before I came on the show. But it's the off season. It's okay. Only four green zone touchdowns for Drake London. That's not good. 15 PPR points per game. If you take out his biggest game in a meaningless game without his number two wide receiver. I think the better picture Jamie to paint on Drake London is he's probably more of a 15 to 16 PPR point per game guy. And if I'm going to play the consistency card like I did earlier with the Monroe St. Brown I've got to do it with AJ Brown to 16.7 PPR game points per game or more each of the last three years. It's Brown.

[Adam]

All right. All right. That's the thing was we're going to keep seeing things that we didn't know about. There's a lot of stats out there, a lot of information. That's why I really like digging into these players. All right, Chris Olave versus devonte Smith. I don't think they were particularly close in your rankings if you have them in front of you. I think there were four or five spots up apart they were. I like Olave better than devonte Smith. I've gone first each of the first two times. So tell me why you have devonte Smith ahead of Chris Olave?

[Heath]

Well, let's start with the. The theme that I've been using quite a bit today, and that's consistency. Devonte Smith's been 14 to 15 PPR points per game each of the last three years. There's been an inconsistency factor with how he's delivered those numbers, but it, it's still something that he's done. There's obviously a target crunch there that, that has slowed devonte Smith down, but he's gotten the job done. We're talking about two players that you'll draft as number three wide receivers. And we can make the argument that on paper, Chris Olave should be. He's got the upside to be better than a number three receiver. But he. He's really only shown that in bits and pieces over the past two years or past three years. He's been in the NFL three years. This is a talent who I liked a lot, but I can't ignore what I've seen from Olave over the last three seasons. His best season was 14 and a half PPR points per game. We've seen. We've seen Devonte Smith, he had 14.22 seasons ago last year. Chris Olave, okay, It's. It's a new offense. Derek Carr's there. This should be the year where Olave gets a lot of work, becomes the number one guy. He had seven plus targets in two games last year. He didn't play a full season, obviously, because of the concussions. He averaged five and a half targets per game and didn't even average 10 PPR points per game. I can't unsee that, man.

[Adam]

You gotta get in. He had two games where he played like 12% or less of the snaps.

[Heath]

I know, but you can't ignore what happened in those games and say that it's fluky, it could happen again.

[Adam]

No, but if you're going to tell me how many targets he has per game, that's, that's, that's the whole point of.

[Heath]

So go ahead. So if you take those out, what's the number?

[Adam]

44 divided by six. It's like seven and a half, seven targets.

[Heath]

All right. And so the one thing that I did.

[Adam]

No, not 44, 42. Exactly. 6. Exactly. 7 per game.

[Heath]

7 per game. If you could guarantee me that Olave is going to be north of seven targets per game, I'd feel a lot better about it. But this is still an offense that I've got questions about from the offensive line to the quarterback. Who's backing up the quarterback. Does Derek Carr play a full season? I don't have questions anymore about the play caller, Kellen Moore. I'm good with it, but I, I just, I don't want to buy into Chris Olave for a fourth straight season when I know that devonte Smith has given me some consistency. And going back to what we talked about seven minutes ago with Philadelphia's offense, if they're not going to run as much in 2025, that means they're going to throw more. Maybe Dallas Goddard isn't even as big of a factor in the offense. He might not even be on the team. That would kick down the door for DeVontae Smith to have a huge year. And so I'm just, I'm taking the number three receiver that's gotten the job done for three straight years in, in a, in a better offense.

[Adam]

I like Olave better because I think he'll lead his team in targets and I don't think we've seen the best of him. And yes, only seven targets per game. I mean, that's not even good. Like seven targets per game in his six healthy games. But I would say we have to remember that Derek Carr, like Derek Carr, played in five of those games. Derek Carr threw 27.2 passes per game and there were two blowouts, went two blowout wins. There was one game where they had the ball for 20 minutes. So they will throw more. But I won't go on my big long spiel. I'm going to send it over to Jamie. Now you tell me, Chris Olave or devonte Smith?

[Dave]

Well, first off, if Dave's scenario plays out in Dallas Goddard, it's not there. Nobody's taking Crystal Lobby over devonte Smith.

[Heath]

So I, I, I, unless you add somebody else along the way, I, I.

[Adam]

Gotta say, I don't know, it's very weird because obviously we know the deal with devonte Smith. Like he's not that good when everyone's healthy and he's, he's not that productive. Yeah, he's not the product. He's amazing when someone's out. But like Dallas Goddard has such a small role, you know, it, it's not like Goddard is a huge song. He's Kittle and this is, you know.

[Heath]

But there is that track record that.

[Dave]

I, I don't think one of those guys is out.

[Heath]

The other guy steps up.

[Dave]

I, I don't think Dallas Goddard's leaving the team. So I, this is kind of okay. But I, I do think that again this is probably going to come down to how you draft if you're looking for more upside if Chris Olave hits in his offense versus devonte Smith being what he's been in the same offense based on what has happened to him. Olave ceiling is higher but to Dave's point, we just haven't seen it from a lobby yet. So if you're going to take the more safe that you're going to take the safer route then devonte Smith is the safer route because there'll be some games where A.J. brown or Dallas Goddard or as we saw last year, both of them miss, then devonte Smith has top five upside when those guys are there. He's more of like a top 25 to 30 receiver, which is why we're drafting him as a number of three receiver. Chris Olave has the opportunity and the ability to be a top 15 caliber wide receiver, but it just has been small sample sizes of that. So you know, if, if I hit two home runs with my first two receivers in the three receiver league, I'm probably going to take Chris Olava to try and see if I hit three home runs. You know, if I don't have the, the best two picks at wide receiver because, oh, I just missed out on a guy or went running back, running back and now I don't have the, the receivers that I like. Well, Chris, then, then it depends again how you draft. You know, does a lot of it make more sense because you're trying to hit the home run or you want to get a little bit more of a safety factor. So I like Olave slightly better, but they're back to back again. It's very interesting that these are the receivers that we've taken, but it's like 20 wide receiver, 26, 27 or 25 and 26, you know, not Ranked as starters. I just think that Ovalave finally can get everything together. He's got a chance to be pretty special.

[Adam]

Yeah, I, I don't know if I still feel like he has a chance to be pretty special, but I do feel like he has a chance to be top 15 wide receiver. And it feels like Devonte Smith, unless A.J. brown gets hurt, can't crack the top 15 because he never has per game. I think. I think 15th per game was his best season. We just. Let's just take a look at their best seasons, both of them. It was their second season in the league. 2022 Devonte Smith, 95 catches, 1200 yards, seven touchdowns on 136 targets.

[Heath]

Chris Olave, he had 18.1 in his final eight games with Goddard outer barely playing that year. So that's an example of Goddard being limited. Slash out what devonte Smith could do.

[Adam]

Yeah, no, I know that's been the case. But Goddard had been a bigger fan. That's why I was optimistic about Smith going into the last year. It's like I didn't really think Goddard's getting old. He's not that productive anymore. He's not what he used to be. So I really thought Smith was going to take that step.

[Heath]

Do you know what Smith was in 2023 without Goddard?

[Adam]

He was terrific. Right.

[Heath]

21.4 PPR points per game, nine targets per game. It's three weeks sample size but three weeks without Goddard.

[Adam]

And what did he do in two weeks without DeVont? Without A.J. brown? He had like. He had two games, like seven catches. Weeks two and three. You can look it up. He was great.

[Heath]

I mean I've got it right here. 17.3 ppr points per game in 10 games where either Brown or Goddard did not play.

[Adam]

Yeah. And. But in six games where they, where they were all healthy or seven games where they were all healthy, he had two games with double digit PPR fantasy points. So yeah, I don't know. We kind of know what he is. Olave has not had a better season than Smith yet. That's the biggest argument against Olave is like he hasn't even done what devonte Smith did because he doesn't score any freaking touchdowns. It's so frustrating. Smith gets you seven touchdowns a year. Olave would love that. But things can change. You know, things change with McLaurin. That was my comp for Olave. I thought he was basically a younger version of McLaurin. Just get, we just get to eight, seven, eight touchdowns. He's going to outproduce Devonte Smith. I feel confident. I don't know that it'll happen, but if he does get there, he'll be better than Smith. I'm just gonna take the guy who I think is going to be number one on his team and targets. And even though Hertz is a better quarterback than Derek Carr, raw passing numbers just because of volume might favor the Saints. All right, let's take a break. We'll come back. We got one more. We got Marvin Harrison Jr. Vs. Jameson Williams after this.

[Unknown]

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[Heath]

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[Adam]

Or the.

[Heath]

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[Adam]

Marvin Harrison Jr. Or Jameson Williams? How about Jamie, you want to start? Who do you like better here?

[Dave]

Marvin Harrison Jr. But it's close. You know, again I think you're looking at the guy who could hopefully be the alpha on his team. And that's saying a lot because Trey McBride is pretty good, whereas Williams could easily be third on his team. You know, based on how LaPorta scores touchdowns and Amara St. Brown and what he does, run game obviously going to favor Detroit as well. I'm just more hopeful that Marvin Harrison lives up to the, you know, prospect that he was coming into the league. You know, I, I was encouraged to hear what Mike Renner said. We had him on last week, you know, about Marvin Harrison and just the ability for him to hopefully have a year to bounce back season. I don't, I don't, I certainly don't think he'll be as bad as he was in his rookie season. Whereas Jameson can disappear at times, you know, so I just like the upside of what Marvin Harrison will hopefully be. You know, again, it's more about who, who's got a chance to be the alpha in his offense. And I don't think Jameson Williams can do that with the guys that are in front of him.

[Adam]

Yeah, Dave, this is kind of the same argument as Olave versus Devonte. So very. I'm also taking Marvin Harrison Jr. And it really seems like this off season, Marvin Harrison junior's production is a huge priority for the Cardinals. Like, you know, Kyler Murray has basically said like, we, we have to get better. The two of us, we're going to work on it. We're going to work on our chemistry, this and that. So I'm, I'm hopeful for a bounce back. And it's not, it's not even Saint Brown like he is, you know, obviously who is. It's the Porter's presence too that gets me with Jameson Williams, especially in the red zone. Jameson Williams is not much of a factor there. So that's why I'm going Harrison over Williams. I think Williams ceiling is a little bit capped by the target competition.

[Heath]

It's. This is very much in pencil. We know that if Marvin Harrison comes to training camp and, and he's a little bit more refined. I, I honestly, I don't even know if refined is the right word. He's got to be faster. He's got to play faster. If he can do those things and earn more than the 6.8 targets per game that he had last season, then this is a slam dunk for Harrison. He's just got to do it. We've got to learn about it, we've got to see it. And, and that's the story. Like, if he can end up being the top target getter amongst everybody in Arizona and then be a factor on, you know, longer plays like Jameson Williams, it's a piece of cake. If it's not happening, if he's not separating with speed, if he's not going to get that huge target volume, if there's talk about another wide receiver in Arizona, if there's talk of the run game being a bigger factor for the Cardinals. It's going to be a little bit harder to trust Marvin Harrison in the second year because if, if he. His floor, I mean, look, both these guys could have a low floor, but I would rather have the receiver with the smash game potential of Jameson Williams where He can have four targets, two catches, 150 yards and a touchdown and then come back the next week and still get good volume the next week and give me a six for 88, something like that. We saw that from him a bunch of times toward the end of the year, which was when Sam Laporta started to get more involved in that offense. And I think there's another step that Jameson Williams can take as far as being more efficient on the target volume that he has. I don't have to worry about Jamo's speed either. And we saw enough from Jameson Williams to know that he improved as a route runner. He improved his technique on the field. He's somebody who I think can come back. And I don't know if he can have a better year necessarily. He was at 14.2 over the course of a season, but maybe a little bit more consistent. And if Marvin Harrison just doesn't take that second year leap, then Jameson Williams will be the guy.

[Adam]

You know, what's interesting about this conversation is that I'm not really convinced that Marvin Harrison Jr. Is a better player than Jameson Williams. It's like I. I've got conviction that A.J. brown is a better wide receiver than Drake London, which again, not a slight on London. I just. Brown's amazing.

[Heath]

Right.

[Adam]

I feel confident that Nico is better than St. Brown, even though St. Brown is great. I. I mean, I feel. I just love Nico. I don't know. Jameson might be better. Like, Jameson's really, really good.

[Heath]

That's true. I've been playing fantasy for many years. I've been doing analysis for many years. The one thing I will say is that opportunity trump's talent.

[Adam]

Yeah.

[Heath]

When it comes to fantasy football and who you'd want to start. And so that, that goes back to. Yeah, Marvin Harrison might not. He's never. Marvin Harrison is never going to be faster than Jameson Williams. He will never be as agile or explosive. But if he's gonna see two more targets per game and he's gonna work on his craft and again take that second year jump, then he'll. He'll be the better receiver for fantasy.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Heath]

I just don't know if I. I'm not ready to call that yet. Which is why Jameson's ranked ahead of Marv.

[Adam]

All right.

[Heath]

Moped. Marv.

[Adam]

Marv, what's the matter? Marv? Are you afraid? Okay. Home alone. It's home alone. So we have 1300 people in the bracket challenge. 1300 brackets. I am in 173rd place.

[Heath]

This is going to be great. Go ahead.

[Adam]

Jamie is in 1300 in first place because he forgot to hit submit. That's not good. Dave, what about you?

[Heath]

I think I'm in like 700th place.

[Adam]

Okay.

[Heath]

With two of my final four teams.

[Adam]

Gone, let's see where I rank it.

[Heath]

But I didn't make any of my picks.

[Adam]

Yeah, who did make your picks?

[Heath]

AI.

[Adam]

AI.

[Heath]

I don't think AI is. Is perfected yet. At least not when it comes to the NCAA tournament. AI had Marquette and Yukon in my final Four, so I. I figured I couldn't do any worse than last year. And I was a year to a year too late, early a year too early on saying that the ACC wasn't.

[Adam]

Any good this bracket. Oh, this guy didn't even finish his bracket.

[Dave]

SEC got what, eight of the sweet 16?

[Heath]

Something like that. They're great.

[Adam]

Did they really? Big 10, I feel like has had the big 10 went eight. No, I think in the first round or they had the most wins without a loss in tournament history. It's actually been great. It's been a great tournament. And we have Dan Schneier coming on on Wednesday. I'm going to tell him about Saturday night. I went to a sports bar and watched the game, the Wisconsin game with a Wisconsin grad named Dan. It wasn't him. We'll talk about that. Awesome story.

[Dave]

Dan was probably there. He just left you and you. Left you alone?

[Adam]

Yeah. Yeah, Left me with his brother who had no interest in talking to me. Okay, we will talk to you on Wednesday on Fantasy Football Today. Thanks everybody. See you later.

[Heath]

Paramount podcasts School Spirits is the phenomenon that gripped audiences everywhere. Where is my body? And in the all new season on Paramount. Plus, the girl you saw in the world isn't me. Get the answers. Wait, does that mean that you're not dead? We are running out of time everyone's been dying for. You have no idea. Idea what I'm capable of. What other secrets are you keeping? Stream the new season of School Spirits now on Paramount.

[Jamie]

Plus.