Geno Smith to the Raiders! Covering All Angles of the Trade (03/10 Fantasy Football Podcast)

Summary

Fantasy Football Today: Geno Smith to the Raiders! Covering All Angles of the Trade (03/10 Fantasy Football Podcast) Release Date: March 8, 2025

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Introduction to the Geno Smith Trade

In this episode of Fantasy Football Today, host Adam Aizer and analyst Heath Cummings delve into the ramifications of Geno Smith's recent trade to the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for a third-round pick. The discussion opens with speculation about additional player movements, such as Christian Kirk potentially moving to the Texans for a seventh-round pick, raising questions about which move holds more fantasy significance.

Adam Aizer [02:39]: "Geno Smith going to the Raiders for a third-round pick. And you know what, why don't we just throw Christian Kirk to the Texans for a seventh-round pick in there. Heath, which is a bigger one for fantasy, you think?"

Evaluating Geno Smith's Upgrade and Stability

Heath Cummings assesses Geno Smith's trade, emphasizing the stability he brings to the Raiders' quarterback position. While acknowledging Smith's past performance fluctuations, Heath believes Geno's presence offers more predictability compared to the uncertainty surrounding the Raiders' previous quarterbacks like Gardner Minshew and Aiden O'Connell.

Heath Cummings [02:48]: "I would say the quarterback moving Geno Smith creates a lot more certainty on one side and uncertainty on the other."

Adam further explores Smith's historical performance metrics, highlighting his transition from a high-output quarterback with 30 touchdown passes three years ago to more modest numbers in subsequent seasons. Despite this, Geno's ability to provide stability, especially for emerging talents like Brock Bowers, is a key takeaway.

Adam Aizer [04:02]: "Geno Smith, you know, how big of an upgrade are we talking here? He had the 30 touchdown season three years ago... So you know, how big of an upgrade is this do you think for the Raiders?"

Heath Cummings [04:54]: "He doesn't have DK Metcalf on this roster even if he has Brock Bowers. ... he is a mid QB2."

Raiders' Offensive Philosophy Under Chip Kelly

The conversation shifts to the Raiders' offensive strategy, particularly focusing on their passing attempts and how Geno Smith fits into Chip Kelly's system. Heath anticipates a slight reduction in pass attempts compared to last year but expects increased efficiency due to improved quarterback play.

Heath Cummings [05:07]: "I would expect we're going to see somewhere around slightly above average in terms of a pass rate. 570, 580 pass attempts."

Adam shares insights into Chip Kelly's historical offensive rankings, noting inconsistencies in pass volume across his tenures with the Eagles and 49ers. This context helps frame expectations for the Raiders' offensive output moving forward.

Adam Aizer [06:21]: "...Chip Kelly's four teams ranked in pass attempts in his four seasons... two seasons with high pass volume, two seasons without it."

Heath contrasts Geno Smith's performance with other quarterbacks coached by Chip Kelly, asserting that Geno stands out as the most effective among Kelly's NFL quarterbacks.

Heath Cummings [07:05]: "...Geno Smith is the best quarterback that Chip Kelly's had in his four years in the NFL in terms of passing."

Impact on the Seattle Seahawks and JSN's Future

The discussion broadens to analyze the Seattle Seahawks' quarterback situation in light of Geno Smith's move. Heath expresses skepticism about the Seahawks outperforming their previous quarterback performance unless they secure a talent like Sam Darnold. He also touches on concerns regarding Jerry Jeudy (JSN) and the potential effects of quarterback changes on his fantasy prospects.

Heath Cummings [08:42]: "I like their chances of doing the same a lot better than I like their chances of doing better."

Adam Aizer [09:06]: "Is JSN worrisome now?"

Heath Cummings [09:11]: "It makes him a little bit more fragile in terms of a projection, because if the quarterback's worse and DK sticks around, things could be bad."

Offensive Coordination and Team Dynamics

Adam and Heath explore the Seahawks' recent decision to fire their offensive coordinator in hopes of adopting a more run-focused approach. They speculate on potential quarterback acquisitions, debating the suitability of players like Justin Fields and Daniel Jones for the Seahawks' evolving offense. Heath remains cautious about how these changes might influence Jerry Jeudy's role and performance.

Adam Aizer [10:03]: "...they fired their coordinator in Seattle because they wanted to run the ball more."

Heath Cummings [10:28]: "...if they bring Rogers in and trade DK, he's probably going to bring Adams. Really needs to be Sam. Really needs to be Sam Darnold."

Closing Remarks and Listener Engagement

As the episode concludes, Adam thanks Heath for his insights and acknowledges the live audience's participation, noting the engagement and excitement surrounding the discussion. The team encourages listeners to stay tuned for future episodes filled with strategic advice and in-depth analysis to help them dominate their fantasy leagues.

Adam Aizer [11:26]: "Thank you, Heath. Enjoy your Friday night. For those of you who just like tuned in... Thank you so much for that."

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Key Takeaways

• Geno Smith's Trade: Provides stability to the Raiders' QB position but may not reach his peak performance from three years ago.

• Raiders' Offense: Expect slight reduction in pass attempts with potentially increased efficiency under Geno Smith and Chip Kelly's system.

• Seahawks' Outlook: Stability unlikely to improve significantly unless acquiring a high-caliber quarterback like Sam Darnold; Jerry Jeudy's fantasy value may be impacted by quarterback uncertainties.

• Offensive Strategy Shifts: Seahawks' move towards a run-focused offense raises questions about the future roles of key wide receivers and overall team performance.

Notable Quotes

• Adam Aizer [02:39]: "Geno Smith going to the Raiders for a third-round pick... which is a bigger one for fantasy, you think?"

• Heath Cummings [04:54]: "...he is a mid QB2."

• Heath Cummings [07:05]: "Geno Smith is the best quarterback that Chip Kelly's had in his four years in the NFL in terms of passing."

• Heath Cummings [09:11]: "It makes him a little bit more fragile in terms of a projection..."

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For fans seeking a deeper understanding of the Geno Smith trade and its broader implications on fantasy football dynamics, this episode offers comprehensive analysis and expert opinions to inform your upcoming draft and weekly lineup decisions.

Transcript

[Adam Azer]

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[Heath Cummings]

I would say the quarterback moving Geno Smith creates a lot more certainty on one side and uncertainty on the other.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah, it's good, right? It's good for, for Bowers, for Myers, good.

[Heath Cummings]

I, I would say it's, it's definitely good for Bowers. You'd had the Bowers McBride poll earlier in the week and I think that one's been settled now. We know that Bowers got enough of a quarterback upgrade that he is definitely the tight end one. With the wide receivers involved in this deal, it's really kind of a holding pattern with jsn, with D Cakes, we don't know where he's gonna be playing and with Jacoby Myers because Jacoby Myers might be replaced as the number one wide receiver in Las Vegas within the next week or two.

[Adam Azer]

So Geno Smith, you know, how big of an upgrade are we talking here? He had the 30 touchdown season three years ago when he was QB 8 per game. Since then he's been QB 22 per game in 2023 and QB 19 per game in 20244 and that was 17 games. 15 games. 17 games in those three seasons. He did get back to the yards. You know, 4,320 yards is really good, but only 21 touchdowns. 41 touchdowns over the last two seasons after 30 touchdown passes in 2022. So you know, how big of an upgrade is this do you think for the Raiders?

[Heath Cummings]

I think Geno Smith's floor right now is very similar to the upside that the Raiders had at quarterback last year with like the, the best of Gardner minshew or Aiden O'Connell is a lot like the worst we've seen from Geno in the last three years. So I don't know that I really believe that Geno Smith has the upside to match that 4,000yard, 30 touchdown season. He doesn't have DK Metcalf on this roster even if he has Brock Bowers. But it's, it's like I said, it's a stabilizing factor for Brock Bowers. You're expecting him to match or exceed what he did last year. Now he has the quarterback that could help him do it. One of those sit where we maybe feel better about the impact for the team and those around him more than we are Excited about Geno. He was a mid QB2. He will be a mid QB2.

[Adam Azer]

What do you think about the offensive philosophy for the Raiders? They had the fourth most pass attempts in the NFL. Geno Smith, Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, what does it all look like to you, you think?

[Heath Cummings]

I think you could see a small step back. But again, the last year was kind of a weird year when you look at the last five, because I don't think their past attempts last year would have been the fourth most in the prior couple of years. So I would expect we're going to see somewhere around slightly above average in terms of a pass rate. 570, 580 pass attempts. Assuming Geno Smith stays healthy and plays 17 games. Again, if there's a small step back, there should be an increase in efficiency because Bowers is playing with a much better quarterback. And we talk a lot. When you talk about Trey McBride, like, the thing that go pops up in everyone's mind is the. The touchdowns. Oh, he's definitely got some positive touchdown regression coming, right? Well, Brock Bowers had five touchdowns on 153 targets. That's a 3.2% touchdown rate. Geno Smith, these last two years when the touchdowns have been way down, has still had a 3.8% touchdown rate. Even if he's that bad, you're talking about a major boost for Bowers, who should be based on his style of play and his size, should be amongst the team leaders in touchdown catches.

[Adam Azer]

By the way, I'm just doing. Looking this up right now. This was a real surprise emergency. Get on the air Friday night. I'm cleaning the kitchen, and then all of a sudden I'm doing a podcast. I'm just looking where Chip Kelly's four teams ranked in pass attempts in his four seasons. So I'm three with the Eagles, one with the 49ers. This is, you know, more than 10 years ago for some of these seasons. So. But in case you're curious, I'll tell you right now. So in his first season with the Eagles, they ranked 27th in past attempts, but then fifth, seventh and sixth. Oh, nope. That's six for the Eagles. Where were the 49ers? 29th. So he had two seasons with high pass volume, two seasons without it. Which means we really don't have anything, I think, to take away from. From that.

[Heath Cummings]

Yeah, I think. Well, I think what you can take away, though, is looking back at those teams. You see Colin Kaepernick, you see Blaine Gabbert, you see Mark Sanchez, you see Sam Bradford, you see Nick Foles and there, there may be one more. Who was it in 2013 but like it I, I think we can pretty fairly. Oh, we had six games of Mike Vic like it was. I would say pretty confidently that Geno Smith is the best quarterback that Chip Kelly's had in his four years in the NFL in terms of passing.

[Adam Azer]

And Chip Kelly did a pretty good job. I mean they scored a lot of points. They were fourth highest scoring team in 2013, third highest in 2014 and 2015. The Eagles were 13th and then not such a great year as I recall from 2015 with the 49ers they were 27th in points scored.

[Heath Cummings]

But I, I think what you have to question, and I wouldn't put like this is just a question mark. You said several times about Doug Peterson, it seemed like the more he coached in the NFL, the lower his offense is ranked. And did teams kind of figure out what Chip Kelly was doing? And after two seasons as a top five offense, he has a middling offense and then he has a terrible offense. So it, it, he is a bit of a mystery box for me. But there's, there's upside there.

[Adam Azer]

All right, let's talk about this from the Seattle standpoint here and how you're feeling about JSN at this point. What do you think the odds are that the Seahawks do better, do the same or better at quarterback at this point than they had with Geno Smith?

[Heath Cummings]

I, I like their chances of doing the same a lot better than I like their chances of doing better. If their plan is we're going to go get Sam Darnold now, then maybe they could be the same as they were last year in terms of quarterback play. If their plan is to somehow like try to go get Shador Sanders or draft Jackson Dart, then I think they're probably going to be worse.

[Adam Azer]

Yeah. So someone's asking in the chat, is JSN worrisome now?

[Heath Cummings]

There is. So I think when we were talking about Tyler Lockett's gone and DK Metcalf's on the trade block, you were looking at JSN and thinking, wow, there might be top 12 upside for him next year. I think that still exists. But you do also have the risk now. There are times when guys get permission to seek a trade and they don't get one worked out and they end up back with their old team.

[Adam Azer]

Sure.

[Heath Cummings]

If we have a worse quarterback and DK Metcalf still on the team, then you have to start wondering, is JSN even a number two wide receiver. And I wouldn't say that this necessarily impacts his upside because it's possible they could still get a quarterback as good as Genie Geno. It. It makes him a little bit more fragile in terms of a projection, because if the quarterback's worse and DK sticks around, things could be bad.

[Adam Azer]

And, yeah, I say this all the time, but remember, they. I said. Said it yesterday whenever we podcasted. They fired their coordinator in Seattle because they wanted to run the ball more. And, you know, this could. We don't really talk about Ken Walker a lot, but this could be Ken Walker's team, you know, for as long as he's helped.

[Heath Cummings]

Maybe. Maybe they. Maybe they want Justin Fields. Maybe they just want to run the ball with Justin Fields and Ken Walker.

[Adam Azer]

No. No. Thanks. Justin Fields. Not good for jsn. Not good for js.

[Heath Cummings]

I do not think it would be good for jsn. I would agree with that. Yeah.

[Adam Azer]

Wouldn't be necessarily bad for Seattle, though. All right, thank you.

[Heath Cummings]

You can't imagine they're bringing Russ back, so. And if they. If they bring Adams in and trade DK there or they bring Rogers in and trade dk, he's probably going to bring Adams. Really needs to be Sam. Really needs to be Sam Darnold.

[Adam Azer]

Daniel Jones, Noah.

[Heath Cummings]

I feel about the same about Daniel Jones. I would. Justin Fields with these. Justin Fields with less upside.

[Adam Azer]

Monday's gonna be a lot of fun. What are you doing for the rest of the night, Heath?

[Heath Cummings]

I've got some company that's on their way over to the house. That's why I said we gotta. Gotta hammer this one out right now if we do it. But no, just. Just spend a little time at the park with my son. I actually won a game of horse, which I rarely win anything with him on the basketball court anymore, so that was fun. He'll be really happy that I told all you people.

[Adam Azer]

All right, thank you, Heath. Enjoy your Friday night. For those of you who just like tuned in, 921 people watching live right now on at 7:41pm Eastern on Friday. That's really cool. Thank you so much for that. I hope you enjoyed this bonus pod a lot more for you throughout the week ahead for heathcomings. And thanks to Thomas Schaefer for setting this up on short notice as well. Well, I'm Adam Azer. Enjoy your weekend, everyone. Paramount Podcasts order for Jennifer C. Is.

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